H & R Real Estate Trust

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. Some Debt Ratios need to improve. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are for FFO and AFFO are currently fine and these are the important ones for REITs. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth restarting. See my spreadsheet on H & R Real Estate Trust.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I bought some REITs for diversification and that is probably a good reason to buy. They also pay monthly dividends and that is good, because if you depend on dividends, some dividend cycles are more used that others. For me the first cycle for dividends (January, April, August and September) has the lowest amount of dividend income. But note that most of the returns for REITs is in dividends. The stock price is certainly reasonable and is probably cheap.

I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF). Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Before I started blogging, I was following several REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this is another REIT that has cut their dividends. Like RioCan, they have also begun again to raise dividends. Dividends went down in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Dividends hit bottom in 2022 and then the rises began. The last raise was in 2023 and the increase was for 9.2%. However, dividends are still down 56% since 2019.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,12.20 you would have bought 42 shares at $24.10 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $627.64 in dividends. The stock would be worth $508.62. Your total return would have been $1,136.26.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$24.10	$1,012.20	42	10	$627.64	$508.62	$1,136.26

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth restarting. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.72%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.25%, 6.13% and 6.25%. Dividends were cut 2020 and the company just started to raise them again in 2023. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 9.2%. The dividends are still 56% lower than they were in 2020.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are for FFO and AFFO are currently fine and these are the important ones for REITs. The DPR for 2022 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is 47% with 5 year coverage at 104%. The DPR for FFO for 2023 is expected to be 48%. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) for 2022 is 56% with 5 year coverage at 132%. The DPR for AFFO for 2023 is expected to be 56%.

The DPR for EPS for 2022 if 161% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The DPR for EPS is expected to be 139% in 2023. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 32% with 5 year coverage at 72%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 120% with 5 year coverage at 83%. The DPR for FCF for 2023 is expected to be around 132%.

Some Debt Ratios need to improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 1.22 and this is too high. It is still currently too high at 1.16. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 0.89 and is too low. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it is still too low at 1.25. I prefer this to be at least 1.50. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 1.93. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.08 and 1.08.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	-16.77%	-1.22%	-10.73%	9.51%
2012	10	-7.29%	1.53%	-6.65%	8.18%
2007	15	-5.89%	4.64%	-3.24%	7.88%
2002	20	-3.81%	9.29%	-0.49%	9.78%
1997	25	-0.84%	11.10%	0.44%	10.66%
1996	26		11.51%	-2.11%	13.62%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.02, 6.99 and 7.97. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.33, 15.95 and 17.57. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.16, 13.13 and 17.50. The current P/E Ratio is 10.59 based on a stock price of $12.71 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.20. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 8.78, 10.51 and 12.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.60, 11.61 and 12.76. The current P/FFO Ratio is 10.33 based on a stock price of $12.71 and FFO estimate for 2023 of $1.23. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 10.42, 12.47, and 15.27. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.43, 14.45 and 15.51. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 11.88 based on a stock price of $12.71 and AFFO estimate for 2023 of $1.07. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $23.90. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.61, 0.67 and 0.75. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.53 based on a stock price of $12.71. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.88. The current P/B Ratio is 0.62 based on a Book Value of $5,487M, Book Value per Share of $20.64 and a stock price of $12.71. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 11.22. The current P/CF Ratio is 13.25 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $255M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.96 and a stock price of $12.71. The current ratio is 18% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.25%. The current dividend yield is 4.72% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price if $12.71. The current ratio is 24% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.13%. The current dividend yield is 4.72% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price if $12.71. The current ratio is 223% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.00. The current P/S Ratio is 3.49 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $969M, Revenue per Share of $3.64 and a stock price of $12.71. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The P/S Ratio testing says this. The problem with the dividend yield testing is that the dividends were cut and this test works best with dividend growth. The P/FFO Ratio and P/AFFO Ratio testing says that the stock price is cheap and this are good tests for REITs. The non dividend yield tests say the stock is cheap or reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (2) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $15.75. This implies a total return of 28.64% with 23.92% from capital gains and 4.72% from dividends based on a current stock price of $12.71.

The three entries for 2023 on Stock Chase gives this stock a Buy rating. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool Thinks this stock is due for a comeback in 2023. Motley Fool thinks this stock has a safe dividend. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2022 results. Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Sport discusses this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It names 4 warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 50.5% per year for the next 3 years; debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; unstable dividend track record; and large one-off items impacting financial results.

H&R Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust principally involved in the ownership of properties in Canada and the U.S. The REIT has four reportable operating segments- Residential, Industrial, Office and Retail, in two geographical locations -Canada and the United States. The operating segments derive their revenue from rental income from leases. Most of this income is generated by its Canadian properties. Its web site is here H & R Real Estate Trust.

The last stock I wrote about was about was RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF) ... learn more on Monday, March 20, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

RioCan Real Estate

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. The stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are for fine for the important ones for FFO and AFFO. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth restarted. See my spreadsheet on RioCan Real Estate.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I bought this stock for diversification and it is a decent stock for me. The thing with REITs is that they tend to have monthly distributions. Most stock pay quarterly and you can end up with a big difference in dividend income over every 3 month period. I think that the stock price is current reason and below the median.

I own this stock of RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF). I first bought this stock in 1998 because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. It was a stock covered and recommended by MPL Communications in their Income Trust coverage. Over the years I have made several more purchases of this REIT.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have bought shares over the years since 1998 (25 years) and have made a total return of 10.01%, with 0.95 from capital gains and 9.06% from dividends. REITs are always heavy with dividend returns but I would expect the capital gains and dividend returns to be more balanced.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,019.72 you would have bought 37 shares at $27.56 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $494.88 in dividends. The stock would be worth $781.81. Your total return would have been $1,276.69.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$27.56	$1,019.72	37	10	$494.88	$781.81	$1,276.69

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth restarted. The current dividend growth is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.13%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yield are also good at 5.60%, 5.36% and 6.73%. The dividends were cut in 2021. The company started to raise them again in 2022. However, the dividends are still 25% below the dividends paid in 2020. I have data for 28 years, of these years, dividends were raised 20 times and cut 1 time. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 5.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are for fine for the important ones for FFO and AFFO. The DPR for 2022 for EPS is 131% with 5 year coverage at 95%. The DPR for EPS for 2023 is expected to be 62%. The DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) for 2022 is 59% with 5 year coverage at 73%. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) for 2022 is 70% with 5 year coverage at 90%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 57% with 5 year coverage at 79%. There is a disagreement among sites as to what the Free Cash Flow is.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 0.88. Real Estate companies have lots of debt and this is fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 0.90, which is unusually low for this company with a 5 year median ratio of 2.62. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is 1.42. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 2.05. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are good at 1.95 and 0.95.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	-6.46%	2.71%	-2.80%	5.52%
2012	10	-3.07%	2.83%	-2.62%	5.45%
2007	15	-1.81%	6.12%	-0.21%	6.33%
2002	20	-0.45%	11.53%	2.67%	8.86%
1997	25	1.07%	12.31%	2.94%	9.37%
1993	28	3.10%	13.94%	3.88%	10.06%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.38, 10.43 and 12.17. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.55, 11.59 and 12.64. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.67, 12.51 and 14.31. The current P/E Ratio is 12.23 based on a stock price of $21.04 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.72. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 10.54, 12.87 and 14.86. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.55, 13.78 and 15.32. The current P/FFO Ratio is 11.89 based on a stock price of $21.04 and FFO estimate for 2023 of $1.77. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 10.54, 12.87 and 14.86. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.55, 13.78 and 15.32. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 11.66 based on a stock price of $21.04 and FFO estimate for 2023 of $1.54. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $32.01. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.79 and 0.90. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.66 based on a stock price of $21.04. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.97. The current P/B Ratio is 0.82 based on a stock price of $21.04, Book Value of $7,729M, and Book Value per Share of $25.73. The current ratio is 16% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.42. The current P/CF Ratio is 12.49 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of 506M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.69 and a stock price of $21.04. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is getting close to cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.73%. The current dividend yield is 5.13% based on a stock price of $21.04 and Dividends of $1.08. The current dividend yield is 24% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.36%. The current dividend yield is 5.13% based on a stock price of $21.04 and Dividends of $1.08. The current dividend yield is 4% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.69. The current P/S Ratio is 5.36 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $1,178M, Revenue per Share of $3.92 and a stock price of $21.04. The current P/S Ratio is 19.8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is almost cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and may even be cheap. The dividend yield testings are not showing the stock price as cheap because they were recently cut. It is always a bad sign when dividends are cut. However, a recent good sign is that the dividends are again be raised. That is why the stock price might be cheap. Important tests for P/FFO Ratio and P/AFFO Ratio are showing the stock price as reasonable and below the median. And, this I good.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4) and Buy (4). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $25.00. This implies a total return of 23.95% with 18.82% from capital gains and 5.13% from dividends.

Analysts last year on Stock Chase thought it was a buy. Stock Chase gives this company 4 stars out of 5. It is not on the money sense list but no REITs are. It is not on the Maple Money list even though this list has REITs. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool thinks this company is a great way to make passive income. Christopher Liew wrote on Motley Fool about this company’s come back after 2000. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter of 2022 results.

A simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talks about this company and its dividend cut. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street gives out 4 warnings for this company of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; unstable dividend track record; large one-off items impacting financial results; and profit margins (19.2%) are lower than last year (49.4%).

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust is a Canadian real estate investment trust which owns, develops, and operates Canada's portfolio of retail-focused, increasingly mixed-use properties. The REIT's property portfolio includes shopping centers and mixed-use developments, with most of its properties located in Ontario, Canada. RioCan’s tenants consist of grocery stores, supermarkets, restaurants, cinemas, pharmacies, and corporates. By geography, the company operates in Canada, which generates most of the total revenue, and in the United States. Its web site is here RioCan Real Estate.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) ... learn more on Friday, March 17, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Stocks for March 2023 .... learn more on Thursday, March 16, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Home Capital Group

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The current price is reasonable and below the median. However, it will be bought by Smith Financial Corp. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are low with dividends restarting See my spreadsheet on Home Capital Group.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The company is being bought out. I see no reason for any small investor to buy it although the current price is lower than the buyout price. I sold, because I see no reason to hold on to a stock that will be bought out. I rather sell and move on.

I do not own this stock of Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF), but I used to. I started reviewing this company in September 2009. It is a dividend growth company and was coming up on lists of good dividends paying stocks. It was on some dividends paying companies lists that I look at. I bought it in 2017 and sold in December 2022 as it was being bought out. See below. See information about the buyout at $44. 00 in cash here.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I had this for just under 6 years. I sold because it was going to be bought out. I see no sense waiting for it to be bought out because I will not gain much from my selling point to the buyout. I made 12.40% return on this stock with 12.04% from capital gains and 0.36% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,004.19 you would have bought 34 shares at $29.54 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $134.64 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1447.72. Your total return would have been $1582.36.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$29.54	$1,004.19	34	10	$134.64	$1,447.72	$1,582.36

I note that analysts expected the EPS to go up 10% to $5.27, but instead the EPS when down 24% to $3.64. They are publishing Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) and this value was 3.91% in 2022. So, the AEPS did not come up to what the analysts thought would be the EPS for 2022.

The dividend yields are low with dividends restarting. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.49%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0.00%, 1.44% and 1.33%. The 5 year dividend yield is 0.00% because dividends were stopped between 2018 and 2021 inclusive. The company restarted dividends in 2022. The new dividend rate is still 40% below what it was for the last full year of dividends in 2016. There was only one dividend paid in 2017.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 1.3% with 5 year coverage at 2.4%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 12.8% with 5 year coverage at 1.6%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is 14.5% with 5 year coverage at 2.5%. Note that the 5 year coverage is low because of no dividends in previous years.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2022 is 0.73. This is fine. I calculate a Liquidity Ratio for 2022 of 2.40, but this is not an important ratio for Financials. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is 1.07 and this is fine for Financials.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	18.20%	20.06%	19.72%	0.34%
2012	10	2.92%	4.96%	3.73%	1.23%
2007	15	6.92%	6.22%	4.84%	1.38%
2002	20	16.16%	15.81%	13.11%	2.70%
1997	25	18.87%	21.35%	17.69%	3.66%
1995	27		39.64%	28.39%	11.25%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.31, 9.19 and 11.15. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.45, 9.22 and 11.76. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.50, 9.11 and 11.89. The current P/E Ratio is 7.44 based on a stock price of $40.25 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $5.41. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $70.69. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.49, 0.66 and 0.89. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.57 based on a stock price of $40.25. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.94. The current P/B Ratio is 0.98 based on stock price of $40.25, Book Value of $1,555M, and Book Value per Share of $41.05. The current ratio is 4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2023 of $45.40. This implies a ratio of 0.89 with a stock price of $40.25 and a Book Value of $1,719M. This ratio is 5.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.02. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.32 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $183M, Cash Flow per Share of $4.84 and a stock price of $40.25. The current ratio is 107% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.13%. The current dividend yield is 1.49% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $40.25. The current yield is 12% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.44%. The current dividend yield is 1.49% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $40.25. The current yield is 3.6% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.30. The current P/S Ratio is 2.58 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $590M, Revenue per Share of $15.57 and a stock price of $40.25. The current ratio is 21.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests say it is reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test says it is cheap. Most of the other tests say the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month target price of $43.83. This implies a total return of $10.39% with 8.89% from capital gains and 1.49% from dividends.

Stock Chase. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. There is nothing recent on Stock Chase, but stock is being bought out. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool talks the stock skyrocketing after buyout agreement made. The company put out a Press Release about its fourth quarter results for 2022. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about who owns shares in this company. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It gives one warning of high level of non-cash earnings.

Home Capital Group Inc is a specialty finance company that offers residential and commercial mortgage lending, securitization of insured mortgage products, consumer lending, and credit card services. The company also offers deposits via brokers and financial planners, and through its direct-to-consumer deposit brand, Oaken Financial. Home Capital's mortgage lending focuses on homeowners who typically do not meet all the lending criteria of traditional financial institutions. Its web site is here Home Capital Group.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 15, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Core Picks for Retirement.... learn more on Tuesday, March 14, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Bombardier Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Sector Stock. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is unknown, but could be reasonable. Debt Ratios are awful. This stock is currently not paying any dividends. See my spreadsheet on Bombardier Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is unknown, but could be reasonable if some analysts are to be believed on the estimates. This is a high risk situation. Personally, I would not buy this stock. If I were to buy such a risky stock, I would prefer a startup rather than a company that may not may not be turning around after having problems for the past 20 years and may or may not be interesting again.

I do not own this stock of Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF). The buying of this stock was part of my early foray into industrial stocks in 1987. Up until 2001, I was making some 35% return per annum on this stock. When the stock first dropped in 2002, I had still made some 28% return per annum on this stock. Even by the lowest point in 2005,I had made some 13% per annum on this stock. By that time, it seemed to be turning itself around, so I did not sell. I lost hope by 2017, so I sold. I made 11.08% total return per year with 5.69% from capital gains and 5.39% from dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there has been no growth except for Cash Flow over the past 5 and 10 years. Because this company is reporting in US$ and the growth below is in US$.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	-134.60%	-15.68%
5	AEPS Growth	-35.14%	-5.84%
5	Net Income Growth	0.00%	0.00%
5	Cash Flow Growth	101.88%	15.09%
5	Dividend Growth	0.00%	0.00%
5	Stock Price Growth	-55.44%	-11.32%
10	Revenue Growth	-142.56%	-8.48%
10	AEPS Growth	-981.08%	-21.18%
10	Net Income Growth	0.00%	0.00%
10	Cash Flow Growth	-25.75%	-2.26%
10	Dividend Growth	0.00%	0.00%
10	Stock Price Growth	-146.76%	-12.01%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,034.00 you would have bought 11 shares at $94.00 per share. (This price is adjusted for recent consolidation with the actual price per share being $3.76.) In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $55.91 in dividends. The stock would be worth $574.97. Your total return would have been $630.88.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$94.00	$1,034.00	11	10	$55.91	$574.97	$630.88

I held this stock from 1987 to 2017 and made 11.08% per year with 5.69% from capital gains and 5.39 from dividends. I made money because I bought this stock relatively low. My Adjusted Cash Basis (ACB) (due to splits) was just $0.60. I sold at $3.08 in 2017 because I was worried it might just fall below my ACB.

This stock is currently not paying any dividends. It has paid dividends for two different periods in the past 36 years. So, I do not have any dividend yield data, nor Dividend Payout Ratios.

Debt Ratios are awful. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 1.65. The best that can be said is that it is better than last year’s 2.24 and the year before of 8.91. This ratio, if above 1, says that the market cap is smaller than the debt. So, investors are valuing this company lower than the company’s debt. This ratio is, of course, too high.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is low at 1.03. If you add in cash flow it is still low at 1.22. I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is very low at 0.82. This means that assets do not cover liabilities. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios cannot be calculated because of a negative Book Value.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2022 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.00%	-7.15%	-7.15%	0.00%
2012	10	0.00%	-5.13%	-5.70%	0.57%
2008	15	0.00%	-4.47%	-5.58%	1.11%
2003	20	0.00%	-3.34%	-4.38%	1.04%
1998	25	0.00%	-3.46%	-4.73%	1.27%
1993	30	0.00%	5.07%	1.23%	3.84%
1988	35	0.00%	10.13%	3.94%	6.18%
1989	36	0.00%	10.03%	4.00%	6.03%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2022 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.00%	-8.44%	-8.44%	0.00%
2012	10	0.00%	-8.12%	-8.64%	0.51%
2008	15	0.00%	-6.34%	-7.46%	1.13%
2003	20	0.00%	-2.42%	-3.82%	1.40%
1998	25	0.00%	-3.02%	-4.49%	1.47%
1993	30	0.00%	4.75%	1.01%	3.73%
1989	33	0.00%	6.24%	1.99%	4.25%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and unusable. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and unusable. The corresponding historical ratios 9.84, 13.16 and 15.76. These are reasonable ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 24.46 based on a stock price of $66.08 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $2.70 ($1.96 US$). The current ratio is above the high of the historical median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.

The EPS estimate for 2024 is higher at $5.33 ($3.87 US$). With a stock price of $66.08 the ratio is 12.39. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the historical year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and unusable. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.08, 9.85 and 11.28. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 26.65 based on AEPS estimate for 2023 of $1.79 and a stock price of $47.70. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Here also, you have a much higher expected AEPS for 2024 of $3.87. With a stock price of $47.70, the ratio is 13.21. However, this ratio is still above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I cannot do a Price/Graham Price test because of the Negative book Values. I cannot do any Price/Book Value per Share testing because of the negative book values. There are no current dividends, so I cannot do any dividend yield testing.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.79. The current ratio is 7.52 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $6.34, Cash Flow of $597M and a stock price of $47.70. The current ratio is 11% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Analysts also expect a high Cash Flow per Share in 2023 of $10.60. With a stock price of $47.70 this implies a ratio of 4.50 and Cash Flow of $997M. This ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.30. The current ratio is 0.58 based on a Revenue estimate for 2023 of $7,747M, Revenue per Share of $82.33 and a stock price of $47.70. The current ratio is 93% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$. Unfortunately, this ratio does not change munch over the next two years being 0.56 in 2024 and 0.54 in 2025.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is unknown. If you believe the analysts, they expect this company to do much better in the future and therefore the price might be reasonable. This comes from the P/E Ratio testing and P/CF Ratio testing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (6), Hold (3) and Underperform (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $77.94 ($56.54 US$). The implies a total return of 17.95% all from capital gains.

Some analysts on Stock Chase like this company and some do not. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says this is one of three companies that are moving ahead of the recovering market. Motley Fool says this company is a defensive stock with long-term potential. The company put out a Press Release on their 2022 results. Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance discusses year end results for this company. Simply Wall Street has 2 warnings for this stock of negative shareholders’ equity and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5.

Bombardier Inc is engaged in the manufacture of business aircraft. It designs, manufactures, markets, and provides aftermarket support for Learjet, Challenger, and Global business jets, spanning from the light to large categories; designs manufacture and provides aftermarket support for a broad portfolio of commercial aircraft in the 50- to 100-seat categories. The company mainly operates in Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, and others. Most of the revenue is generated from North America. Its web site is here Bombardier Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF) ... learn more on Monday, March 13, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Emera Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. The company has lots of debt and have a long history of lots of debt. Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) for dividends paid in cash is fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are a little high, but analysts do expect some improvement this year. The dividend yield is currently good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Emera Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I own this stock and I am going to keep what I own. I do not plan to buy anymore, but my last purchase of shares in this company occurred in December 2022. I think the amount of debt may be a problem, but this has been a continuing problem. ( I have statistics going back to the 1990’s.) I think that the stock price is current reasonable and below the median.

I own this stock of Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA). I found this company in Mike Higg’s site. Mike’s site has a spreadsheet showing Dividend Paying Canadian Growth stocks. I have done well with this stock. My total return is 10.93% per year with 5.46% from capital gains and 5.47% from dividends over 17.5 years. If I exclude the most recent purchase, my total return is 10.99% with 5.50% from capital gains and 5.49% from dividends. For utility stocks it is not unusual to get half your return from dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the company does have too much debt. This is a utility stock and utility stocks do have lots of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2022 is 1.13 and currently 1.06. This is not the first time this company has this ratio at 1.00 or higher. It means that the company’s long term debt is higher than the stock’s market cap ( or value assigned by investors).

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,007.46 you would have bought 29 shares at $37.74 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $610.81 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,500.75. Your total return would have been $2,111.56.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$34.74	$1,007.46	29	10	$610.81	$1,500.75	$2,111.56

The Liquidity Ratio is too low at 0.67. This ratio has always been very low. If this ratio is below 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. I prefer it to be 1.50 or better. You must add in Cash Flow after dividends and the current portion of the long term debt for this value to be over 1.00. This is also normal for this stock. The Debt Ratio is also low at 1.40 for 2022. I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The 5 year median for this ratio is 1.40 and the 10 year median is 1.41.

The dividend yield is currently good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.03%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.69%, 4.46% and 4.76%. The dividend increases over the past 5 years is low (below 8%) at 4.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 4.2%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are a little high, but analysts do expect some improvement this year. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 75% with 5 year coverage at 82%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 83.7% with 5 year coverage at 87%. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) for 2022 is 198.33% with 5 year coverage at 88%. This is expected to be at 56.8% in 2023. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 63% with 5 year coverage at 45.5%. This is expected to be 35% in 2023. The Free Cash Flow (FCF) is often negative, so the DPR cannot be calculated.

Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) for dividends paid in cash is fine. There is a big difference in the dividends payable and dividends paid in cash. The DPR for Net Income for dividends paid in cash is 47% with 5 year coverage at 53%. The DPR for EPS for dividends paid in cash is 49% with 5 year coverage at 57%.

The company has lots of debt and have a long history of lots of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is too high at 1.13 and is currently lower at 1.06, but still too high. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.40 and I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.97 and 2.83 respectively. I prefer them to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.67 and even adding in Cash Flow after dividends, we just get to 0.70. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. You must add back in the current portion of the long term debt to get above 1.00 and then it is 1.12. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher and you must be sure that the debt can be rolled over.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	4.66%	7.01%	1.95%	5.06%
2012	10	6.99%	8.98%	4.07%	4.92%
2007	15	7.54%	11.03%	5.90%	5.13%
2002	20	5.84%	11.16%	6.05%	5.11%
1997	25	4.90%	8.77%	4.43%	4.34%
1992	30	4.49%	10.79%	5.38%	5.41%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.56, 17.25 and 18.23. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.61, 17.81 and 19.70. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.58, 15.52 and 17.19. The current ratio is 17.19 based on a stock price of $54.85 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $3.19. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.58, 19.25 and 22.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.23, 17.72 and 19.00. The current P/AEPS ratio is 17.09 based on a stock price of $54.85 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $3.21. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $51.74 . The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.05, 1.17 and 1.32. The current ratio is 1.06 based on a stock price of $54.85. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.64. The current P/B Ratio is 1.48 based on a Book Value of $10,005M, Book Value per Share of $37.06 and a stock price of $54.85. The current ratio is 10% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2023 of $38.90. Thus implies a P/B Ratio 1.41, with a Book Value of $10,501M and stock price of $54.85. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.24. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.05 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $7.78, Cash Flow of $2,100M and a stock price $54.85. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.76%. The current dividend yield is 5.03% based on dividends of $2.76 and a stock price of $54.85. The current dividend yield is 5.7% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.46%. The current dividend yield is 5.03% based on dividends of $2.76 and a stock price of $54.85. The current dividend yield is 12.8% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.09. The current P/S Ratio is 2.09 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $7,092M, Revenue per Share of $26.27 and a stock price of $54.85. The current ratio is at the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. The dividend yield tests say this and is basically confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the other stock price tests say the same thing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (5), Hold (8) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The month stock price consensus is $58.38. This implies a total return of 11.47% with 6.44% from capital gains and 5.03% from dividends. One Do Not Buy rating on Stock Chase says that utilities tend to do well prior to economic weakness and that this stock is not currently performing well. This is from November 2022.

Analyst on Stock Chase like this company. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is number 76 on the Money Sense list. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says it is a defensive stock to buy for dividends. Andrew Button on Motley Fool thinks this company can do well with a lot of debt. The company put out a Press Release for their 2022 results. Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talk about analysts thinking revenue will drop over the next few years. Simply Wall Street gives this company 4 stars out of 5. It also lists 3 warnings signs of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 5.13% is not well covered; and shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Emera is a geographically diverse energy and services company investing in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution as well as gas transmission and utility energy services. Emera has operations throughout North America and the Caribbean countries. Its web site is here Emera Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) ... learn more on Friday, March 10, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy March 2023 .... learn more on Thursday, March 9, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

IGM Financial Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. The stock price seems reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. Some Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. See my spreadsheet on IGM Financial Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably reasonable. This stock is still making money. However, I would not buy it because it is no longer a dividend growth company, but I would suspect that at some time in the future it will be dividend growth again. If I held it, I would probably not sell it. The total return has been low for several years, but investors have been getting a good return in dividends.

I do not own this stock of IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF). I am following this stock because I used to own this stock. The stock was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks and on the other Dividend lists at that time. I owned this stock from 2006 to 2011. I sold because I decided to rationalizing my portfolio. Selling ones that did not make it into my core and buying ones that did of the same type.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed growth for this company has been low over the past 5 and 10 years.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	6.44%	1.26%
5	AEPS Growth	20.20%	3.75%
5	Net Income Growth	44.08%	7.58%
5	Cash Flow Growth	12.18%	2.33%
5	Dividend Growth	0.00%	0.00%
5	Stock Price Growth	-16.80%	-3.06%
10	Revenue Growth	30.25%	2.68%
10	AEPS Growth	21.40%	1.96%
10	Net Income Growth	13.79%	1.30%
10	Cash Flow Growth	3.96%	0.39%
10	Dividend Growth	4.65%	0.46%
10	Stock Price Growth	-10.05%	-0.95%

Analyst had expected the EPS to go up by 9% to $4.45. Instead, the EPS went down 11% to $3.63.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,040.00 you would have bought 25 shares at $41.60 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $557.50 in dividends. The stock would be worth $945.00. Your total return would have been $1,502.50.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$41.60	$1,040.00	25	10	$557.50	$945.00	$1,502.50

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% yields) at 5.30%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also good at 6.00% and 5.77%. The historical median dividend is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.97%. The last dividend increase was in 2015. Analysts do not expect any increases anytime soon.

Some Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The DPR for 2022 for EPS is 62% with 5 year coverage at 65%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 62% with 5 year coverage at 65%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2022 is 72% with 5 year coverage at 69%. I prefer this to be at 40% or less. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2022 is 90% with 5 year coverage at 78%. I prefer this to be at 60% or less, however, there is no agreement on what the FCF should be.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.23 and this is low and good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022, I calculated to be 2.29, but this is not important for Financials. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.01 and 2.01. I prefer these to be under 3.00 and 2.00, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.	check
2017	5	0.00%	2.35%	-3.06%	4.51%	1.45%
2012	10	0.46%	4.61%	-0.95%	5.57%	4.61%
2007	15	1.59%	3.02%	-1.85%	4.87%	3.02%
2002	20	4.93%	7.97%	1.89%	6.09%	7.97%
1997	25	8.39%	7.19%	2.08%	5.11%	7.19%
1992	30	10.58%	12.85%	6.06%	6.79%	12.85%
1990	32	10.22%	16.26%	8.03%	8.23%	16.26%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.34, 11.28 and 12.80. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.96, 11.63 and 13.73. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.30, 15.06 and 17.58. The current P/E Ratio is 11.15 based on a stock price of $42.49 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $3.81. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.21, 11.13 and 12.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.07, 11.61 and 13.49. The current ratio is 11.30 based on a stock price of $42.49 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $3.76. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $40.48. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.03 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.05 based on a stock price of $42.49. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.11. The current P/B Ratio is 2.19 based on a stock price of $42.49. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.53. The current P/CF Ratio is 13.69 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $737.7M, Cash Flow per Share of $3.10 and a stock price of $42.49. The current ratio is 9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.97%. The current dividend yield is 5.30 based on a stock price of $42.49 and dividends of $2.25. The current yield is 33% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.77%. The current dividend yield is 5.30 based on a stock price of $42.49 and dividends of $2.25. The current yield is 8% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.86. The current P/S Ratio is 2.87 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $3,522M, Revenue per Share of $14.82 and a stock price of $42.49. The current ratio is 0.2% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The P/S Ratio says this as does most of the testing. The dividend yield tests say either cheap or above the median. The problem with the dividend yield testing is the dividends have been flat for some 8 years. This is generally not a healthy sign.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (1), Hold (5) and Underperform (1). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $45.22. This implies a total return of 11.72% with 6.43% from capital gains and 5.30% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase have various views on this company. One said to expect most of your return to be in dividends. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 starts out of 4. It is on the Money Sense list at number 44. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool says this is a stock to avoid. Adam Othman on Motley Fool likes the dividend on this stock. The company put out a press release on Newswire about its fourth quarter.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance says that the dividend is sustainable. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It gives one warning of dividend of 5.4% is not well covered.

IGM Financial is the largest non-bank-affiliated asset manager in Canada. The firm is part of the Power Financial group of companies, which includes Great-West Life, London Life, Canada Life, and Putnam Investments. IGM has two main operating divisions asset management (operated through Mackenzie Investments) and wealth management (via its Investors Group Wealth Management and Investment Planning Counsel subsidiaries) that provide investment management products and services. Its web site is here IGM Financial Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TFI International Inc (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 8, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks March 2023.... learn more on Tuesday, March 7, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

TFI International Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on TFI International Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do like this company which I have done very well with. I bought it for diversification for investments sectors and dividends. The dividends are low with moderate increases. The last two dividend increases were good (above 14%) at 17.39% for 2022 and 29.63% for 2023.

I own this stock of TFI International Inc (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF). I bought this for diversification. I like to have stocks that have good dividend and low growth and others, like this stock, with low dividends, but good growth. I will continue to keep my stock, but I will not be buying more because I have enough of this stock in my portfolio.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done very well by this stock. I have had it for 5.7 years and made several purchases. My Total Return if 38.03% with 35.84% from capital gains and 2.19% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 1993, for $1,000.33 you would have bought 599 shares at $1.67 per share. In December 2022, after 30 years you would have received $12,007.10 in dividends. The stock would be worth $81,230.39. Your total return would have been $93,237.49.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$1.67	$1,000.33	599	30	$12,007.10	$81,230.39	$93,237.49

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,012.86 you would have bought 51 shares at $19.86 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $443.06 in dividends. The stock would be worth $6,916.11. Your total return would have been $7,359.17.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$19.86	$1,012.86	51	10	$443.06	$6,916.11	$7,359.17

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.12%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4%) at 2.15%, 2.27% and 2.75%. The dividend increases are moderate (8% to 14% ranges)with dividends increasing by 12.3% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 29.6% and it was for 2023.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 12% and the 5 year coverage is 17%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 13.5% with 5 year coverage at 20.8%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2022 is 7% with 5 year coverage at 9%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 16% with 5 year coverage at 18%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is low and good at 0.15. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is a bit low at 1.31 and prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is 2.22. The Debt ratio for 2022 is good at 1.81. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are fine at 2.24 and 1.24.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	13.99%	34.69%	32.78%	1.91%
2012	10	11.56%	23.01%	21.18%	1.83%
2007	15	-0.49%	22.30%	19.61%	2.68%
2002	20	1.25%	22.16%	15.50%	6.67%
1997	25		33.30%	20.62%	12.68%
1992	30		19.93%	15.79%	4.14%
1990	32		19.14%	15.52%	3.61%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2022 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	12.26%	34.07%	32.14%	1.93%
2012	10	8.17%	19.12%	17.49%	1.63%
2007	15	-2.56%	19.74%	17.21%	2.53%
2003	19	2.04%	21.06%	14.70%	6.36%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.76, 12.07 and 15.04. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.07, 12.12 and 17.31. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.06, 11.66 and 12.47. The current P/E Ratio is 17.15 based on a stock price of $169.44 and an EPS estimate for 2023 of $9.88 ($7.26 US$). This P/E Ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.10, 114.46 and 13.92. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.52, 13.70 and 16.93. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 16.48 based on a stock price of $124.60 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $7.56. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $94.71. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.97, 1.20 and 1.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.79 based on a stock price of $124.60. This current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.44. The current P/B Ratio is 4.38 based on a stock price of $124.60, Book Value of $2,463M and Book Value per Share of $28.46. The current ratio is 79% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $31.00. This implies a ratio of 4.02 with Book Value of $2,683M and a stock price of $124.60. This ratio is 65% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.78. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.03 based on a stock price of $124.60, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $11.30 and Cash Flow of $977.9M. The current ratio is 42% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.76%. The current dividend yield is 1.12% based on dividends of $1.40 and a stock price of $124.60. The current dividend yield is 59% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.31%. The current dividend yield is 1.12% based on dividends of $1.40 and a stock price of $124.60. The current dividend yield is 51% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.69. The current P/S Ratio is 1.28 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $8,400M, Revenue per Share of $97.07, and a stock price of $124.60. The current ratio is 86% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. Both the dividend yield tests are saying the stock price is relatively expensive and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the other testing is also saying the same thing.

I can look at the capital gains and total return over several years. For P/S Ratio and P/E Ratio, the lower the ratio the cheaper the stock. For yield, the higher the yield, the cheaper the stock. In the chart below you can see that the beginning P/E Ratios for good returns are about the same today. The P/S Ratio looks high compared to the past. The dividend yield looks low. However, this company used to be an income trust with very high dividends.

In the following chart the capital gains for the 15 years to December 31, 2022 is 19.61% per year, the starting P/E Ratio (the one from 15 years ago) was 17.77, P/S Ratio was 0.41 and yield was 17.05%. Does this chart change my opinion of the stock price? No and this is because of the P/S Ratios.

Years	Cap Gains	Tot. Ret.	Beg P/E	Beg P/S	Beg Yield
5	32.78%	34.69%	19.33	0.62	2.31%
10	21.18%	23.01%	12.81	0.59	2.47%
15	19.61%	22.30%	17.77	0.41	17.05%
20	15.50%	22.16%	18.54	0.85	11.94%
25	20.62%	33.30%	-5.00	0.14	1.22%
30	15.79%	19.93%
32	15.52%	19.14%
current			17.15	1.28	1.12%

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (8), Buy (8) and Hold (5). The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $157.56 ($123.10 US$). This implies a total return of 0.02% with a capital loss of 1.11% and dividends of $1.12% based on a current stock price of $169.44. This 12 month total return does not seem to go with the buying recommendations.

Note that the 12 month high price is $196.10 ($144.00 US$). This implies a total return of 16.81% with 15.68% from capital gains and 1.12% from dividends based on a current stock price of $169.44. The 12 month low stock price is $131.67 ($96.73 US$). This implies a total return loss of 21.17% with a 22.29% capital loss and 1.12% from dividends based on a current stock price of $169.44.

This stock is well thought of by analysts on Stock Chase. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is number 83 on Money Sense list. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is a growth stock to buy. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says this stock is an industrial leader to be held in your RRSP. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their 2022 year end results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance thinks it is a good idea to invest in profitable companies like TFI. Simply Wall Street has 4 warnings for this stock of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.9% per year for the next 3 years; has a high level of debt; large one-off items impacting financial results; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. The company publishes Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) to exclude such things as one -off financial items. AEPS is expected to increase over the next three years. Insiders not taking up options shows as selling, but over the past year, the CEO, CFO and Lead Director all increased the number of shares they have.

TFI International Inc. is in the transportation and logistics industry. The Company identifies strategic acquisitions and manages a network of subsidiaries. It operates principally in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. TFI International Inc. is based in St Laurent, Canada. Its web site is here TFI International Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... learn more on Monday, March 6, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.