Thomson Reuters Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is relatively expensive. Stock price is higher than at the end of last year. See my spreadsheet on Thomson Reuters Corp.

I own this stock of Thomson Reuters Corp (TSX-TRI, NYSE-TRI). This is a dividend growth stock. Its performance has always been rather mediocre, but it is a diversification. I bought this stock in 1985 so I have had it for a very long time, almost 34 years. I bought stock to give my portfolio some balance as I had too many financial stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that done moderately well over the long period of time I have had this. I bought it in 1985, some 34 years ago. I have a total return of 8.50% with 5.48% from capital gains and 3.02% from dividends.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. I have records going back to 1985, some 34 years. Over this time the dividend yields have varied as has the dividend growth. The current dividend yield at 2.14% is moderate (2 to 4% ranges). The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields, although higher are also moderate at 3.09%, 3.07% and 3.07%. The dividends are paid in US$ and you can see in the charts below that growth in dividends in low (under 8%).

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 46% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 64% and 37%. The DPR for CFPS is higher than what I would like to see, but it is only this year it has been over 40%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 355% with 5 year coverage at 63%. The 5 year coverage is important, because a company can have a bad year. This is in US$ as the company reports in US$.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.08. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.95. If you add in cash flow after dividends and add back the current portion of the long term debt, it is 1.12. Cash Flow is low for 2019. The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.24. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.81 and 0.81.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	5.44%	19.25%	14.66%	4.59%
2009	10	4.27%	14.17%	10.59%	3.58%
2004	15	4.42%	8.01%	5.39%	2.62%
1999	20	3.36%	6.97%	4.43%	2.54%
1994	25	4.45%	10.54%	6.97%	3.57%
1989	30	4.88%	9.83%	6.47%	3.36%
1985	34	5.70%	8.54%	5.67%	2.86%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	1.76%	16.39%	12.13%	4.27%
2009	10	2.54%	11.82%	8.24%	3.58%
2004	15	4.40%	7.67%	4.84%	2.82%
1999	20	4.00%	7.93%	5.10%	2.83%
1994	25	4.63%	10.96%	7.26%	3.70%
1989	30	4.26%	8.57%	5.62%	2.94%
1985	34	5.89%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.64, 19.68 and 23.72. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.63, 17.61 and 20.59. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.13, 19.63 and 23.72. The current P/E Ratio is 38.46 based on a stock price of $99.70 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.59 (1.84 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$ terms.

I get a Graham Price of $37.92. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.26, 1.52 and 1.66. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.63 based on a stock price of $99.70. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$ terms.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.20. The current P/B Ratio is 3.78 based on a stock price of $71.76, Book Value of $9,450M, and Book Value per Share of $19.00. The current ratio is 71% higher than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$ terms. You get similar results in CDN$ terms.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.95%. The current dividend yield is 2.15% based on dividends of $2.14 ($1.52 US$) and a stock price of $99.70. The current dividend yield is 36% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$ terms.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.36%. The current dividend yield is 2.15% based on dividends of $2.14 ($1.52 US$) and a stock price of $99.70. The current dividend yield is 27% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$ terms.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.45. The current P/S Ratio is 5.81 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $6.139M, Revenue per Share of $12.34 and a stock price of $71.76. The current ratio is 139% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$ terms. You get similar results in CDN$ terms.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is not surprising as the current stock price is now higher than at the end of the last year. All the tests are showing the same. Although I do like it that the P/S Ratio test confirms the results of the dividend yield test, I can find nothing wrong with the other tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this company and I bought it for diversification purposes which is still valid. I think it is on the expensive side at the moment and this is perhaps not a good time to buy it.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), Hold (7), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months stock price is $72.41 US$. This implies a total return of 3.02% with 0.91% from capital gains and 2.12% from dividends. This is in US$, but you will get a similar result in CDN$.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Surprisingly there are no recent entries. The last one talks about LSE buying Reuters, but they want to buy a Refinitiv which is a part of Thomson Reuters. Debra Ray on Motley Fool thinks this is the stock to hold after the Covid 19 crash. A Writer on Simply Wall Street complains about high Dividend Payout Ratios. The only possible way it can get their figures is including the recently payment to shareholders because the company brought back shares for shareholders. This is a onetime thing. The writers on this blog tend to do very surface analysis and sometimes they miss what is really happening. The DPR is not a problem for this company.

A writer on Simply Wall Street looks at ownership and it shows a lot is owned by private companies. (Actually it is the Thomson Family holding company of Woodbridge Company.) An item on CPS Practice Advisor talks about this company teaming up with Prime Global Partner to produce with accounting events.

Thomson Reuters is one of the world’s most trusted providers of answers, helping professionals make confident decisions and run better businesses. Our customers operate in complex arenas that move society forward — law, tax, compliance, government, and media – and face increasing complexity as regulation and technology disrupts every industry. Its web site is here Thomson Reuters Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was WSP Global Inc (TSX-WSP, OTC-WSPOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be McCoy Global Inc (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF) ... learn more on Friday, May 1, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Benefits, Danger with Monthly Dividends.... learn more on Thursday, April 30, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

WSP Global Inc

Today I bought 300 Shares of McCoy Global Inc (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF) at $0.42 a share. This is for my TFSA account. My TFSA account is my fooling around money. This is highly speculative as McCoy services the Oil and Gas industry.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. The stock price is relatively expensive. This stock is up 2% year to date. No dividend increases in sight at the moment. See my spreadsheet on WSP Global Inc.

I own this stock of WSP Global Inc (TSX-WSP, OTC-WSPOF). In Sept 2011 I rationalized my portfolio. I sold stocks that did not make it into my core and bought stocks that could of the same type. In this case selling Stantec and buying Genivar. In October 2011 I wanted to sell Enerflex because it is not a company I bought, but a distribution from Toromont. I bought more Genivar, now called WSP Global.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company was started as an income trust. It was trying to get its dividend under control and so has not increased the dividend since becoming a corporation in 2010. However, I have done well in this stock with a total return of 20.97% per year and 17.10% from capital gains and 3.87% from dividends. I am not disappointed in this stock, but wish they would consider a dividend increase. I do doubt this will happen while we are tied up with Covid 19 and a Lockdown.

The dividend yields are currently low to moderate with dividend growth currently non-existent. This stock was an income trust when those were allowed. Since converting to a corporation, the dividends have been flat. Income trust can afford to pay out a much higher amount than corporations. Currently the dividend yield is low (under 2%) at 1.66%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.09%, 4.04% and 4.61%. The dividends have not grown since 2010.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) have improved greatly since 2010. I noticed that the payout ratio is higher than the industry average of 41.59% but yield is near the industry average of 1.60%. There will probably be no increase until this company’s DPR is at the industry’s average. Of course, with all averages, some are higher than the average and some lower.

The DPR for 2019 is 55% with 5 year coverage at 67%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 17% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 12% with 5 year coverage at 20%. Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 8.57. Unfortunately, analysts do not expect a dividend increase any time in the near future.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good and low at 0.12 for 2019. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is low at just 1.07. If you add in Cash Flow after Dividends it is better at 1.29. If you added back in the current portion of the long term debt it is also good at 1.41. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.62. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.60 and 1.60.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 14 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	23.62%	20.53%	3.09%
2009	10	0.00%	16.26%	12.61%	3.66%
2005	14	8.54%	22.95%	16.87%	6.08%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.87, 24.87 and 28.77. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.62, 22.77 and 20.98. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.73, 19.70 and 23.68. The current P/E Ratio is 24.93 based on a stock price of $90.51 and 2020 EPS of $3.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $50.68. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.03, 1.17 and 1.36. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.79 based on a stock price of $90.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.64. The current P/B Ratio is 2.88 based on a stock price of $90.51, Book Value of $3,331M and Book Value per Share of $31.45. The current ratio is 76% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.61%. The current dividend yield is 1.66% based on dividends of $1.50 and a stock price of $90.51. The current dividend yield is 64% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.04%. The current dividend yield is 1.66% based on dividends of $1.50 and a stock price of $90.51. The current dividend yield is 59% below the 10 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.10. The current P/S Ratio is 1.32 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $7,244M, Revenue per Share of $68.38 and a stock price of $90.51. The current ratio is 20% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively expensive. The Dividend Yield test show the stock as expensive and this is confirmed the P/S Ratio test. There are problems with the dividend yield tests. First this company was an income trust in the past and as such had high dividend yields in the past. Secondly the dividends have been flat for more than 10 year so this does not make a actuate test. There are no problems with the other tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do like this company and I will continue to hold my shares. I do not sell stock just because it has become relatively expensive. However, I do not feel that this might be a good time to buy this stock as the price is relatively high. Of course, it is just within the relatively expensive zone with the P/S Ratio test where the relatively expensive zone starts when the current ratio is 20% above the 10 year ratio.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (5) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $94.50. This implies a total return 6.07% with 4.41% from capital gains and 1.66% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They think well of this stock. Adam Othman on Motley Fool recommends this as a growth stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this is a dividend stock worthy of closer attention. The company has given their response to handling of Covid 19 event. Ed Hammond on Financial Post talks about a possible deal with Aecon.

WSP Global develops creative, comprehensive, and sustainable engineering solutions for a future where society can thrive. Equipped with an intimate understanding of local intricacies, world-class talent and proactive leadership, they plan, design, manage and engineer long lasting and impactful solutions to uniquely complex problems. Its web site is here WSP Global Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Fortis Inc (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Thomson Reuters Corp (TSX-TRI, NYSE-TRI) ... learn more on Thursday, April 29, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about 5 Small Companies for 2020 .... learn more on Tuesday, April 28, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Fortis Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price is reasonable to expensive and we are in a bear market. Stock is down less than 2% year to date. This is a good dividend growth stocks, but now may not be a good time to buy because of the price. See my spreadsheet on Fortis Inc.

I own this stock of Fortis Inc (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF). I bought this stock as Newfoundland Light and Power Co. Ltd. Class A shares in 1987. I bought more in 1995 and 1998. In 2005 I sold some Fortis from my RRSP account as I needed to get $20,000 in this account and I was concerned about the debt liquidity of this stock. However, this stock continues to be one of my big stock holdings.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done very well in this stock. I have had it for some 32 years with a total return of 12.93% per year to the end of March 2020 with 7.98% from capital gains and 4.95% from dividends. For the stock I bought 32 years ago I am earning 39.3% on my original investment. This is investing in a dividend growth stock at its best. Also, this stock has hardly been affected by the current bear market. It is down just 1.2% year to date. It did at first go down a lot, over 22%, but has since recovered.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) with the current dividend yield is 3.59%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 3.34%, 3.34% and 3.93%. The dividend growth has mostly been low (below 8% per year). See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2019 for EPS is 66% with 5 year coverage at 67%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 30% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow cannot be calculated because of negative FCF. Wall Street Journal and Morningstar agree that FCF has been negative, but that is all. For the past 5 year they disagree on what the FCF has been. Analysts expect FCF to be positive in 2020.

Debt Ratios are normal for this stock over the long term. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is good at 0.86. The stock is only down less than 2% year to date, so the current ratio is also good at 0.87. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.62. If you add in cash flow after dividends and current portion of the debt, you only get as high as 1.26. This is low as I prefer a ratio of at least 1.50. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.60. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.66 and 1.66 for 2019.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 38 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	7.38%	10.33%	6.70%	3.63%
2009	10	5.80%	10.17%	6.51%	3.66%
2004	15	8.47%	11.79%	7.84%	3.96%
1999	20	7.23%	15.04%	10.11%	4.93%
1994	25	6.21%	13.75%	8.96%	4.80%
1989	30	5.73%	12.38%	7.84%	4.54%
1984	35	5.88%	12.41%	7.58%	4.83%
1981	38	6.21%	13.56%	7.96%	5.60%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.92, 18.17 and 20.42. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.97, 18.61 and 20.59. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.95, 13.39 and 14.82. The current P/E Ratio is 20.07 based on a stock price of $53.19 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

TD WebBroker is issuing in their reports Price/Adjusted Cash Flow of Operations per Share Ratios. The 5 year P/AFFO Ratios are 18.88, 17.70 and 19.53. The 10 year P/AFFO Ratios are 14.09, 16.63 and 18.67. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 18.28 based on 2020 AFFO of $2.91 and a stock price of $53.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $46.17. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.99, 1.10 and 1.20. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.13 based on a stock price of $53.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.41. The current P/B Ratio is 1.49 based on a Book Value of $16,587M, Book Value per Share of $35.76 and a stock price of $53.19. The current ratio is 5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.93%. The current dividend yield is 3.59% based on a stock price of $53.19 and dividends of $1.91. The current dividend yield is 9% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.34%. The current dividend yield is 3.59% based on a stock price of $53.19 and dividends of $1.91. The current dividend yield is 7% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.27. The current P/S Ratio is 2.66 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $9,278M, Revenue per Share of $20.03, and a stock price of $53.19. The current ratio is 50% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable to expensive. Considering we are in a bear market it is interesting that no test is showing the stock price as cheap. There are mixed reviews from the dividend yield testing with the historical test saying the stock price is above the median and the 10 year one saying it is below the median. These tests are not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test which is showing the stock price as relatively expensive. The stock is probably towards the expensive end.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Yes, it is a good utility stock to own for the long term. It has shown itself to be a great dividend growth utility stock. However, I do wonder if now is a good time to buy it. We are in a bear market and it seems a bit pricey.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (5), Hold (5), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). This is quite a spread of recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $58.00. This implies a total return of 12.63% with 9.04% from capital gains and 3.59% from dividends. This is not very different from what has been doing for a number of years.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase . One analyst says it is a high quality utility to own. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says this is a stock for Millennials. It is always interesting to look at the risk analysis on Simply Wall Street. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company’s ROCE is similar to other electric utilities . A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the stock is selling at its intrinsic value. I heard a couple of other analysts say the same thing recently. Joseph McCarthy on The Enterprise Leader talks about institutional buys and sells of this company. The Canadian Blogger Dividend Earner did a review of this stock in February 2020.

Fortis owns and operates utility transmission and distribution assets in Canada and the United States, serving more than 2.5 million electricity and gas customers. The company has smaller stakes in electricity generation and several Caribbean utilities. Its web site is here Fortis Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was SNC-Lavalin Group Inc (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be WSP Global Inc (TSX-WSP, OTC-WSPOF) ... learn more on Monday, April 27, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Cowkeeper's Wish by Tracy Kasaboski and Kristen den Hartog learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price is relatively cheap. There is a lot of risk due to old problems. Current dividend yield is very low at just 0.33%. See my spreadsheet on SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

I do not own this stock of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF), but I used to. I have sold my stock in SNC-Lavalin (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF). I have given up hope that there will be any sort of resolution for this company anytime soon. However, I must admit that it is currently perking up. I live off my dividends and they have cut the dividends twice last year. Dividend yield is really low at just 0.3%

The Investment Reporter has removed this stock from their Key Stock List and Issued a sell on the stock . The largest shareholder and a shareholder for lots of Quebec companies of Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec seems to be losing patience with this stock also. Victor Ferreira on Financial Post says analysts slash target prices and stock price fell 10%. I sort of regard selling now.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I sold at a low point. Although if I did buy it, I would probably not do as well as I had in the past. I had this stock for 20 years and my Total Return was 23.16% per year with 19.73% from capital gains and 3.43% from dividends.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth mixed. The current dividend yield at 0.33% is low (below 2%). The 5 year median dividend yield at 2.16% is moderate (2% to 4% ranges). The 10 year median and historical median dividend yields are low at 1.98% and 1.56%.

Dividend increases were good (mostly above 15%) until 2011. Dividend increases were then low (below 8%) until 2019 when they cut the dividends by 80%. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are improving. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 13% with 5 year coverage at 415%. This s because of an earnings loss in 2018. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 483% with 5 year coverage at 48%. Analysts expect the long term coverage to be better. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 and 5 year coverage is not calculatable because of negative FCF. For this stock, Wall Street Journal and Morningstar agree on FCF. Analysts expect the FCF to turn positive this year and coverage to be at 200%.

Debt Ratios could be better, but I give them a pass. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.32. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 1.14. You have to add back the current portion of the long term debt to get a better one which would be 1.25. Add in cash flow after dividends, it is lower at 1.23. I like to see this ratio at 1.50. The Debt Ratio is a bit low at 1.47 with a 5 year ratio at 1.59. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a bit high at 3.13 and 2.13 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-24.21%	-5.18%	-7.53%	2.35%
2009	10	-8.76%	-3.59%	-5.72%	2.13%
2004	15	1.81%	5.84%	2.96%	2.88%
1999	20	5.65%	15.59%	11.10%	4.49%
1994	25	7.80%	14.11%	10.44%	3.66%
1989	30	12.11%	14.46%	11.00%	3.47%
1988	31	9.23%	19.98%	14.58%	5.40%

Because the stock price has dropped some 20% year to date, I thought I would show the same chart but with value to date. However, even with this drop, it does not change what long term investors are earning by very much.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	-24.21%	-8.32%	-10.37%	2.05%
2010	10	-8.76%	-6.78%	-8.80%	2.02%
2005	15	1.81%	2.40%	-0.44%	2.84%
2000	20	5.65%	13.35%	8.50%	4.84%
1995	25	7.80%	12.87%	8.72%	4.15%
1990	30	12.11%	13.60%	9.65%	3.95%
1988	32	9.23%	19.40%	13.28%	6.12%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Adjusted Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.69, 17.11 and 25.16. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.35, 19.11 and 25.05. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.87, 19.11 and 23.90. The current P/E Ratio is 11.79 based on a stock price of $22.80 and 2020 EPS estimate of 1.94. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.80, 18.63 and 22.69. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.35, 19.11 and 25.05. The current P/AE Ratio is 9.79 based on a stock price of $22.80 and 2020 EPS estimate of 1.94. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $30.38. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.56 and 1.85. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.75 based on a current stock price of $22.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.39. The current P/B Ratio is 1.08 based on a stock price of $22.80, Book Value of $3,712M and a Book Value per Share of $21.15. The current ratio is 55% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.56%. The current dividend yield is 0.35% based on a stock price of $22.80 and dividends of $0.08. The current yield is 78% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.98%. The current dividend yield is 0.33% based on a stock price of $22.80 and dividends of $0.08. The current yield is 82% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.88. The current P/S Ratio is 0.48 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $8,763M, Revenue per Share of $49.82 and a stock price of $22.80. The current ratio is 48% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. A number of the stock price tests, such as P/S Ratio, P/B Ratio and P/GP Ratio show the stock price as cheap. These are good tests. They also provided an Adjusted EPS where a test shows the stock price as cheap. Companies have Adjusted EPS when they feel that the EPS, done in the normal method does not correctly reflect what the company is earning.

The dividend yield test that show the stock price as expensive is really a warning. It is showing it was expensive because dividends have been cut because the company cannot afford them. This is a negative. Also, the P/S Ratio test show the stock as cheap, but not very cheap, like the other tests. A cheap P/E Ratio is one below 10.00. This might point to the fact the EPS have not been good lately and a look at the spreadsheet confirms this.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? In a lot of ways, I still like this company. It is cheap. I do wonder if it is cheap enough for all the possible problems that the government might still come up with. You also cannot just put their cheapness down to the current bear market. I am not buying at present. Part of the reasons is the uncertainty of whether their troubles are over and part is that I never buy stocks with a dividend less than 1.00%.

But make no mistake, they do have their problems. They were having troubles going back quite a number of years. As I recall, the company fired Riadh Ben Aissa back in 2012. There was an article in March 2015 in the National Post on the problems at that time. As a shareholder, you think at different times that their legal problems are finished and then the government starts more actions. You have to wonder if there is ever going to be an end.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (6) and Hold (2). The consensus would be Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $35.96. This implies a total return of $58.07% with 57.72% from capital gains and 0.33% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. A number do not like this company. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says to stay away from this stock. Summary on Simply Wall Street is good for the Risk Analysis section. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about ownership of stocks in his company. Christopher Reynolds on Global News talks about the dividend cut and why.

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc is a fully integrated professional services and project management firm that offers a wide range of services, including financing, consulting, engineering and construction, procurement, and operations and maintenance. Its web site is here SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Barclays PLC ADR (LSE-BARC, NYSE-BCS) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Fortis Inc (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF) ... learn more on Friday, April 24, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Surviving Bear Markets .... learn more on Thursday, April 23, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Myth of Capitalism: Monopolies and the Death of Competition by Jonathan Tepper with Denise Hearn learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Barclays PLC ADR

The last time I saw my friends in person was March 15, 2020. I maybe old, but I had an active social life and now it is all gone. Life has got boring. This is the most common complaint I hear from my friends via email. Some have taken to do spring cleaning, but I am not that desperate. I keep busy as I have lots to do, but it seems now that every day is about the same.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Foreign Bank. The stock price is relatively cheap. I would not buy this stock again. The stock price is barely above where it was 26 years ago. Who knows if any dividends will be paid this year. See my spreadsheet on Barclays PLC ADR.

I do not own this stock of Barclays PLC ADR (LSE-BARC, NYSE-BCS), but I used to. I bought this stock when Barrett took over in 2000. Barrett used to run Bank of Montreal in Canada. At that time, it was a good dividend paying stock and I thought it would give me some geographical diversifications.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that is was well that I sold this stock in 2017. In 2000 when I bought the stock, I paid $24.9 US$ for it. It hit a high of $61.84 US$ in 2007, then crashed in 2009 to $3.07 US$. It recovered to $25.39 US$ in 2009, but then continued south to the present day. It did fluctuate but always down. So, I did the right thing to sell in 2017 even though I lost money when I sold it for $9.94 US$. My Total Return to 2000 was 1.25% per year because of dividends.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth all over the place lately. The dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend yield is 3.29% with 5, 10 and historical dividend yields at 2.48%, 2.47% and 3.39%. The dividend increases were in the good range (15% and higher) before 2007. Since then they have been inconsistent having been increased, decreased and flat at various times.

Barclays PLC had announced last month a dividend increase. They announced this month that they will not pay any dividend in April of this year and will decide at the end of the year whether or not to pay a dividend later in the year. Dividends recently have been paid in April and September. The TD bank’s WebBroker has cut the dividend back to where it was. So, I am going with this at present, but there may not be any dividend this year. See Barclay’s site here.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are not great, but seems to be getting under control. The DPR for 2019 for EPS was 50% with 5 year coverage at 118%. This is because of some recent earnings losses. Analysts expect the DPR for EPS to be lower this year, but who knows as the Bank is not going to announce what they will do until near the end of the year. The DPR for Cash Flow cannot be calculated this year because of a negative cash flow, but the 5 year coverage is low at 5%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow cannot be calculated because of negative FCF.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Deposit/Asset Ratio is good at 0.84. This is a bank, so the Liquidity Ratio is not needed or done. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 and this is fine for a bank. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 is 17.37 and 16.37 and these are normal for a bank.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2019 in UK Pounds. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	1.49%	-6.51%	-8.70%	2.37%
2009	10	21.48%	-3.55%	-5.96%	2.41%
2004	15	-7.89%	-7.04%	-9.93%	3.04%
1999	20	-2.86%	-0.50%	-5.38%	4.57%
1994	25	1.16%	9.96%	0.31%	8.83%
1993	26	2.38%	9.51%	0.34%	8.11%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-1.78%	-6.51%	-8.70%	2.20%
2009	10	19.02%	-3.55%	-5.96%	2.41%
2004	15	-9.14%	-7.04%	-9.93%	2.89%
1999	20	-3.34%	-0.50%	-5.38%	4.88%
1994	25	0.49%	9.96%	0.31%	9.66%
1993	26	1.90%	9.51%	0.34%	9.17%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.88, 11.24 and 13.60. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.30, 10.51 and 13.24. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.63, 10.12 and 12.94. The current P/E Ratio is 7.81 based on a stock price of $4.55 and 2020 EPS estimate of $0.58 (£0.117). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.

I get a Graham Price of $14.58. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.53, 072 and 0.85. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.32 based on a stock price of $4.55. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.62. The current P/B Ratio is 0.29 based on a Book Value of £54,797M, Book Value per Share of £3.16 and a stock price of £0.91. The current P/B Ratio is 53% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in UK£. You get a similar result in US$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.96%. The current dividend yield is 3.28% based on dividends of $0.15 (£0.030) and a stock price of $4.55. The current dividend yield is 11% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.40%. The current dividend yield is 3.28% based on dividends of $0.15 (£0.030) and a stock price of $4.55. The current dividend yield is 37% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.45. The current P/S Ratio is 0.77 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of £20,464M, Revenue per Share of £1.18 and a stock price of £0.91. The current ratio is some 47% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in UK£. You get a similar result in US$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. I, of course, like the P/S Ratio test which shows the stock as cheap. The dividend yield test is not that reliable when dividend fluctuate. I see no problems with the other stock price tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I am glad I sold this stock. I would not buy it again. One problem was that it was hard to count on what you would get in dividends. Another was that buying international stocks can be complicated. This was an ADR on the NYSE. There were 4 UK shares for each ADR share. Here I had to deal with three currencies of UK£, US$ and CDN$. Dividends were paid in UK£ which were then changed into US$. At least I had a US$ account to keep this stock in. The stock price is cheap.

Dividend payments do not work in the UK as in Canada or the US. When I invested in the company, I got each year a final dividend which was decided after the year end (paid in April each year) and an interim dividend (paid in October each year). The final dividend was much larger than the interim one. I never really knew how much I would get.

In 2010 the company switched to quarterly dividends. The first dividend paid (called final dividend) was paid early in the year based on the previous year’s results. Then were three smaller interim dividends (which you would know about ahead of time). The interim dividends were always a lot smaller than the final. In 2016, the bank switched back to semi-annual dividends.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (12), Buy (2), Hold (7), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month target price is UK£ 1.5349. This implies a total return of 71.64% with 68.36% from capital gains and 3.28% from dividends. However, dividends may or may not be paid.

Rachael FitzGerald-Finch on Motley Fool finds this bank still attractive. Michael Baxter on Motley Fool says this is an appealing UK bank. A writer on Simply Wall Street says insiders are buying. Marion Hillson on The Enterprise Leader says this bank has a consensus recommendation of a Hold. Philip Whiterow on Proactive talks about UK banks told to stop dividends and bonus payments due to coronavirus crisis.

Barclays PLC operates in commercial and investment banking, insurance, financial and other related services. Barclays subsidiary, Barclays Bank PLC maintains 2500 branches in the United Kingdom and 1000 branches in over 75 other countries. Its web site is here Barclays PLC ADR.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be SNC-Lavalin Group Inc (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 22, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Owning a Home.... learn more on Tuesday, April 21, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Natural Resources

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Resources. The stock price is relatively cheap. There was insider buying below $30.00. The dividend yield is high at 9.41%. The stock is down a lot in this bear market. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Natural Resources.

I own this stock of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I started to follow this stock in 2008 because it was on the dividend growth lists that I followed. I first bought CNQ in September 2012 because the dividend yield was relatively high. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields were 0.73% and 0.75%. The current one was at 1.31% and I got it with a yield of 1.32%. In April 2013 I bought more shares of this stock because the yield is now at 1.54%. I bought another 100 shares in 2020 because the yield was 11.63%.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there was lots of insider selling most of the year until around April when the stock hit $30 the buying started and continued after price hit the bottom and then climbed to $15. Buying then stopped.

The dividend yields are usually low with dividend growth good. Until 2014 the dividend yield was low (below 2%). The historical median dividend yield is 0.97%. Since then it has been moderate (2% to 4% range). The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are 2.70% and 2.40%. The current dividend yield is high (7% and above) at 9.41%. The dividend growth has lately been lower than usual in the moderate range (8% to 14% ranges). Prior to 2014, it has in the good range (15% and higher). See chart below. I would expect a dividend cut because of the current conditions.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good for cash flow. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 32% with 5 year coverage at 72%. It has been higher than usual since 2015. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 17% with 5 year coverage 18%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 33% with 5 year coverage at 46%. Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 3.00 with 5 year coverage at 2.18. (Again, my three sources of FCF disagree.)

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.37. With the dive in stock price it is now 0.87. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.68. If you add in cash flow after dividends the Liquidity Ratio is fine at 1.75. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is good at 1.81. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are normal for this sort of company at 2.23 and 1.23.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	10.78%	6.14%	3.18%	2.96%
2009	10	21.54%	2.97%	1.01%	1.96%
2004	15	20.09%	10.34%	8.24%	2.10%
1999	20	22.56%	14.05%	11.93%	2.12%
1994	25		15.49%	13.64%	1.85%
1990	29		22.30%	19.85%	2.45%

Because events are currently moving very quickly, the above chart does not give a good view of what is really happening for this stock. The following chart shows the returns to the current date. Shares are down 60% year to date.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	10.78%	-3.81%	-9.08%	5.27%
2010	10	21.54%	-4.85%	-8.23%	3.39%
2005	15	20.09%	0.05%	-2.88%	2.93%
2000	20	22.56%	10.39%	6.64%	3.74%
1995	25		11.60%	8.40%	3.20%
1990	30		20.22%	15.98%	4.24%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.63, 7.96 and 9.29. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.93, 15.96 and 18.59. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.46, 112.49 and 18.64. The current P/E Ratio is a negative 10.82. The P/E Ratio for 2021 is 21.26 based on EPS of $0.85 and a stock price of 18.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $23.75. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.85, 1.08 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76 based on a stock price of $18.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.49. The current P/B Ratio is 0.61 based on a Book Value of $34,911M, Book Value per Share of $29.48 and a stock price of $18.07. The current ratio is 59% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.97. The current dividend yield is 9.41% based on dividends of $1.70 and a stock price of $18.07. The current dividend yield is 870% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.40. The current dividend yield is 9.41% based on dividends of $1.70 and a stock price of $18.07. The current dividend yield is 291% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.51. The current P/S Ratio is 1.25 based on a stock price of $18.07, Revenue estimate for 2020 of $16,082M, and Revenue per Share of $14.45. The current ratio is 50% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. This should be no surprise. The historical and 10 year median dividend yield tests are showing stock as relatively cheap. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. It is also confirmed by the P/B Ratio and P/GP Ratio tests. The P/E Ratio tests shows differently, but this is a very poor test when you have earnings losses as this stock does. There were two recently in 2015 and 2016 and it is expected to have one also in this year of 2020.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I have little in the way of resources. This is a major integrated petroleum company. I have been doing fine with this stock until the recent crisis. However, resource stocks have a very small percentage of my portfolio. To get some exposure it is probably best to buy this one or Suncor or Imperial Oil which are major integrated petroleum companies After saying this sort of company is not my favourite type, this is a well run company. Currently it is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (9), Buy (11), Hold (5) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price is $28.58. This implies a total return of 67.57% with 58.16% from capital gains and 9.41% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They do like this company. Matt Smith on Motley Fool thinks that the company might have to cut their dividend. It is interesting to look at the Risk Analysis on Simply Wall Street. A writer on Simply Wall Street. Says that the P/E Ratio on this stock is at 4.7 compare to market average of 13.6. Not much help in the current market. Andrew Bell on BNN Bloomberg says that a TD analysts says the unthinkable may happen and the company cut its dividend.

Canadian Natural Resources is one of the largest oil and natural gas producers in western Canada, supplemented by operations in the North Sea and Offshore Africa. The company's portfolio includes light and medium oil, heavy oil, bitumen, synthetic oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its web site is here Canadian Natural Resources.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pembina Pipelines Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Barclays PLC ADR (LSE-BARC, NYSE-BCS) ... learn more on Monday, April 20, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Six-Day War, The Breaking of the Middle East by Guy Laron learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Pembina Pipelines Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price is relatively cheap. See my spreadsheet on Pembina Pipelines Corp.

I own this stock of Pembina Pipelines Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA). This is a dividend growth utility Stocks. In December 2001 I thought it would be a good time to purchase this stock as the market was relatively low. Pipeline stocks are conservative and the return on this one was good at 9.7%. When I purchased this stock, it was an Income Trust company.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it would seem from the INK report that the selling overpowered what was being bought. The thing is that the selling was mostly to do with stock options and rights. Most of the $2M in insider buying occurred after the price dropped recently below $40.00.

The dividend yields are good to high with dividend growth low. This stock used to be an income trust and income trusts had generally high (7% and above) dividend yields. Dividend yields came down after it changed to a corporation, but with the recent bear market they are high again. The current dividend is high at 9.48%, with 5, 10 year median yields good (5% and 6% range) at 5.17% and 5.18%. The historical median is still high at 7.18%. The dividend growth is low (under 8%). See chart below. The last increase was for 2020 and it was for 5%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine, and are improving. The DPR for 2019 is 89% with 5 year coverage at 116%. It was only in 2018 that the DPR was below 100%. Income Trust stocks can pay out more than corporations can, so when it changed to a corporation, the company needed to lower it DPR. It is in that process. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 45% with 5 year coverage at 53%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 149% with 5 year coverage at 4593%. Analysts expect the DPR for FCF to be 82% in 2020. Morningstar, Wall Street Journal and Market Screener do not agree on what the FCF is.

As an income trust, the DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) were important. They are still publishing FFO and AFFO values. The DPR for AFFO for 2019 was 54% with 5 year coverage at 61%. The DPR for FFO was 48% with 5 year coverage at 57%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is good at 0.38. It is still fine with the much lower current stock price at 0.69. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.68. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.53 with 5 year median also at 1.53. The Debt Ratio is good for 2019 at 2.02 with 5 year median even better at 2.18. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.98 and 0.98 for 2019 with 5 year ratios at 1.85 and 0.85.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	6.50%	7.18%	2.60%	4.58%
2009	10	3.98%	17.54%	10.63%	6.90%
2004	15	5.44%	15.79%	8.76%	7.02%
1999	20	4.63%	19.87%	10.04%	9.83%
1997	22	6.74%	20.89%	9.97%	10.92%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.02, 22.78 and 24.54. The corresponding 10 year ratio is 23.47, 27.90 and 32.33. The corresponding historical ratios are 19.92, 22.78 and 25.36. The current P/E Ratio is 11.87 based on a current stock price of $26.58 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $36.25. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 1.68 and 1.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.73 based on a stock price of $26.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.87. The current P/B Ratio is 1.02 based on a Book Value of $14,286M, Book Value per Share of $26.07 and a stock price of $26.58. The current ratio is 46% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.18%. The current dividend yield is 9.48% based on dividends of $2.52 and a stock price of $26.58. The current yield is 32% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.18%. The current dividend yield is 9.48% based on dividends of $2.52 and a stock price of $26.58. The current yield is 83% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.75. The current P/S Ratio is 1.95 based a stock price of $26.58, 2020 EPS estimate of $7,473M, and Revenue per Share of 13.64. The current ratio is 29% below the 10 year median ratio.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. This cannot be a surprise. All the testing is showing the same result. What I like to see is that the P/S Ratio test confirms the dividend yield test. In this case the 10 year median dividend yield test. This is done. The historical dividend yield test is probably not good as the company used to be an income trust. I see no problem with the other tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I like this company and I will continue to hold this stock. This basically a utility stock. Even though the market was down, I have earned 14.88% per year on this which I have held for some 18 years. The stock price is cheap and I think unfairly so. This can happen in a bear market. Of course, I could be wrong, but I was willing to buy more of this stock yesterday.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7), Buy (12) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $37.00. This implies a total return of 48.68% with 39.20% from capital gains and 9.48% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There are very missed views. Robin Brown on Motley Fool says it is currently an absolute bargain over 8%. A writer on Simply Wall Street in January 2020 said that the intrinsic value of the stock was $101 and it was undervalued as it was trading at $51.. In a recent Press Release the company announces first quarter 2020 results and a dividend increase. In a company Press Release among the actions taken to protect their people in connection with the Covid 19 Flu, the company says that they have the resilient cash flow stream to protect its dividend through this current downturn..

Pembina Pipeline is an integrated midstream energy infrastructure company in western Canada and North Dakota, highlighted by its regional pipeline network. The company operates over 9,000 kilometers of conventional hydrocarbon pipelines, coupled with 1,650 kilometers of heavy oil and oil sands pipelines. Gas processing facilities, natural gas liquids infrastructure, and a marketing business round out the integrated value chain. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ) ... learn more on Friday, April 17, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Growth 2.... learn more on Thursday, April 16, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Barrick Gold Corp

Today, I bought some Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA) for my CDN Trading account. I am buying because it is relatively cheap. They just raised their dividend and the yield is over 8%. They also said that they will get through this current Covid 19 flu situation without having to cut their dividends. This is the account where I get my spending money from. This is a dividend growth stock.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Materials. I think that the stock price is relatively expensive. Not a great dividend growth stock as dividend fluctuate a lot. I follow resource and material stocks as they are a large part of the TSX. See my spreadsheet on Barrick Gold Corp.

I own this stock of Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX). This is a big gold mining company that I have followed for years. It was on some dividend growth lists at different times and covered by the Investment Reporter. I bought some of this stock in April 2013 because its stock price had fallen hard. I believed the market over reacted. I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest. I bought another 100 shares in 2016.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I am finally making money on this stock. Last year my total return to the end of March 2019 was 4.76% per year with 3.69% from capital gains and 1.07% from dividends. Today, my total return to the end of March 2020 is 10.25% per year with 9.20% from capital gains and 1.05% from dividends.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth varying a lot. Dividends have been paid in US$. When you look at the chart of dividend growth in CDN$ remember that it will fluctuate with the currency exchange. The chart below showing values in US$ is the one to use to look at dividend changes. The dividends have gone up, gone down and have been flat.

The dividend yield has mostly been low (below 2%). The current dividend yield is 1.24%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 1.04%, 1.16% and 0.95%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. Because the dividends are paid in US$ and the company reports in US$, I will look at the DPR in US$ terms. The DPR for 2019 for EPS is 9% with the 5 year coverage at 228%. There has been lots of recent years of EPS losses. Analysts estimates think they will do fine over the short term in positive EPS.

The DPR for CFPS is very good and it has always been with the DPR for 2019 at 7% with 5 year coverage at 4%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 48% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio is health at 2.07 and 5 year coverage at 4.56.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.16 and this is low and good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is high and good at 2.90 with 5 year median at 2.68. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is high and good at 3.05 with 5 year median much lower but still good at 1.71. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.07 and 0.68 for 2019 with 5 year median ratios at 2.75 and 1.56.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2019 CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	2.28%	15.08%	14.01%	1.07%
2009	10	-4.69%	-4.29%	-5.27%	0.98%
2004	15	-0.13%	0.05%	-1.22%	1.27%
1999	20	-0.53%	1.24%	-0.13%	1.37%
1994	25	2.49%	0.08%	-1.05%	1.12%
1989	30	4.47%	8.35%	5.68%	2.67%
1986	33	9.81%	10.04%	6.93%	3.10%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2019 US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	12.55%	11.58%	0.97%
2009	10	-6.70%	-6.23%	-7.23%	1.00%
2004	15	-0.63%	-0.32%	-1.75%	1.43%
1999	20	0.00%	1.83%	0.25%	1.58%
1994	25	2.81%	0.55%	-0.72%	1.26%
1989	30	6.53%	4.65%	2.89%	1.76%
1986	33	9.81%	10.27%	7.17%	3.09%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.36, 7.16 and 8.95. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 2.01, 2.42 and 2.83. The corresponding Historical ratios are 18.79, 25.95 and 31.57. The current P/E Ratio 23.95 based on a stock price of $31.48 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $1.31 CDN$ ($0.94 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$ terms.

I get a Graham Price of $21.52. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.80, 0.99 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.39 based on a stock price of $31.48. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$ terms.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.99. The current P/B Ratio is 1.86 based on a Book Value $21,432M, Book Value per Share of $12.05 and a stock price of $22.41. The current ratio is 6.5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in US$ terms. You get a similar result in CDN$ terms.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.95%. The current dividend yield is 1.24% based on a stock price of $31.48 and dividend of $0.39 CDN$ ($0.28 US$). The current dividend is 31% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$ terms.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.15%. The current dividend yield is 1.24% based on a stock price of $22.41 and dividend of $0.28 US). The current dividend is 8.7% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in US$ terms. You get a similar result in CDN$ terms.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.34. The current P/S Ratio is 3.56 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $11,188M, Revenue per Share of $6.29 and a stock price of $22.41. The current ratio is 52% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$ terms. You get a similar result in CDN$ terms.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The tests show a number of different results. I like the P/S Ratio the best and it show that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem with the dividend yield test is that dividends have fluctuated over time and so makes it not a good test. The P/E Ratios are nonsense when there are lots of EPS losses. There are no problems with either the P/GP Test or the P/B Ratio test. So, results are reasonable to expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do not generally recommend any resource stocks. I have little myself, but I have a small amount of this stock. I follow some resource stocks because they make up some 40% of the TSX.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7) only. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $32.10. This implies a total return of 3.21% with 1.97% from capital gains and 1.24% from dividends. A Strong Buy and only 3.21% total return in 12 months do not go together. Such a small gain would imply the stock price is expensive.

See what analysts are saying Stock Chase. There are very mixed views as not everyone likes to have gold. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a current attractive buy. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the sentiment around this stock has been positive lately, but there are 4 warnings that give him pause. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that Barrick’s ROE at 5.8% is lower than its peers at 9.9%. BNK Invest on Nasdaq talks about the average analysts target for this stock.

Based in Toronto, Barrick Gold is one of the world's largest gold producers, operating mines in North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Its web site is here Barrick Gold Corp .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Leon's Furniture Ltd (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Pembina Pipelines Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Growth.... learn more on Tuesday, April 14, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.