tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-83381724663317669622024-03-18T16:27:56.981-04:00Investment TalkFollow me on <a href="http://twitter.com/spbrunner">twitter</a> to see what stock I am reviewing.
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Email address in Profile. See my website for <a href="http://www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html">stocks followed</a>.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.comBlogger3207125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-90729641929970948962024-03-18T16:27:00.000-04:002024-03-18T16:27:02.186-04:00Canadian Tire CorpSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. Debt Ratios show that the company currently has too much debt and some ratios need to be improved. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good, but 2023 being an off year. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ctc.htm" target="_top"> Canadian Tire Corp</a>.
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Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I have done well with this company and I think it is a good it a good consumer stock to own. MoneySense gives it a C rating. Analysts seem to only have strong buys when a stock has a climbing stock price, not when a stock price is down. I think you should buy a stock when it is down. Unfortunately, I am generally fully invested so I do not have much money for new purchases. The results of my stock price testings says that the stock price on this stock is relatively cheap.
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I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF). In 2000 when I first bought this stock, it was on the Investment Reporter's list of conservative Canadian stocks. I bought stock for my trading account in 2009 because I have done well with it in my Pension Account and it was a consumer stock.
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When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for just over 24 years and I have made a number of purchases since my first buy in 2000. I have made a total return of 11.28% per year with 8.69% from capital gains and 2.59% from dividends.
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The company said that sales and profit was down due to softening of consumer demand and unseasonable weather in Q4. They are a consumer stock and they have had an off year. It happens. The company still increased their dividends in 2024, but at a minimal amount of 1.45%. Doing this keeps a company on the Dividend Aristocrat list.
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In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. This chart shows that they had a bad year for net income in 2023, but net income is expected to growth this year.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Gwth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Per Year</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Gwth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Coverage</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.48%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.08%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-13.22%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.80%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-3.18%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-69.18%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-20.98%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.85%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">67.66%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.89%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">CF Growth excl WC</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">51.50%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.66%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">91.67%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.45%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.42%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.28%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-3.11%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">41.33%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.52%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.77%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">47.72%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.98%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.00%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-61.99%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-9.22%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">238.96%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">51.56%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.25%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.80%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">CF Growth excl WC</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">49.66%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.11%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-8.75%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">392.86%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.29%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.99%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">41.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.53%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-3.11%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br ><br >
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.37%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.53% and 2.37%. The historical dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.70%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% per year) at 13.9% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for only 1.45%.
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The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good, but 2023 being an off year. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) are too high for at 183% with 5 year coverage at good at 41%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is fine at 54% with 5 year coverage is good at 31%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 21% with 5 year coverage at 15%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is fine at 53% with 5 year coverage good at 37%.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">182.54%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">40.53%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">54.18%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">21.42%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">52.67%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">37.21%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br ><br >
Debt Ratios show that the company currently has too much debt and some ratios need to be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is fine at 0.60 and currently at 0.62. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.77. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is too low at 1.41 and I would prefer it to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are too high at 3.41 and 2.41. I prefer them to be below 3.00 and 2.00.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.60</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.62</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.27</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.77</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.77</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.92</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.41</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.41</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.41</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.41</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.37%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.28%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.66%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.29%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.65%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.53%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.07%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.34%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.30%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.05%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.57%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.07%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.97%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.91%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.96%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.26%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.55%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1988</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">35</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.07%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.25%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.25%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.01%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br ><br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.86, 10.22 and 12.30. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.80, 13.66 and 15.25. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.45, 13.06 and 14.84. The current P/E Ratio is 8.55 based on a stock price of $130.43 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $15.26. The current ratio is below the low ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.61, 9.93 and 11.65. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.40, 13.21 and 15.03. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 11.65 based on AEPS estimate for 2024 of $11.20 and a stock price of $130.43. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
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I get a Graham Price of $158.54. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 1.02 and 1.17. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.82 based on a stock price of $130.43. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.80. The current P/B Ratio is 1.31 based on Book Value of $5,548M, Book Value per Share of $99.75 and a stock price of $130.43. The current ratio is 27% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $102.00. This BVPS implies a ratio of 1.28 with a stock price of $130.43 and Book Value of $5,573M. This ratio is 29% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.96. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.44 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $29.40, Cash Flow of $1,653M and a stock price of $130.43. The current ratio is 50% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.70%. The current dividend yield is 5.37% based on dividends of $7.00 and a stock price of $130.43. The current yield is 216% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.37%. The current dividend yield is 5.37% based on dividends of $7.00 and a stock price of $130.43. The current yield is 126% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.68. The current P/S Ratio is 0.43 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $16,784M, Revenue per Share of $301.76 and a stock price of $130.43. The current ratio is 37% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. Both the historical and 10 year dividend yield tests say that the stock price is cheap. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test that says the stock price is relatively cheap. Most of the rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4), Hold (5), and Underperform (1). The 12 month stock price consensus is $155.50, with a high of 195.00 and low of $130.00. The consensus stock price of $155.50 implies a total return of 20.79% with 15.43% from capital gains and 5.37% from dividends.
<br ><br >
For 2024 on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/2092/CTCA-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> there is a buy recommendation and a Do Not Buy recommendation. The second analysts does not like consumer stocks. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is on the dividend lists that I follow. Demetris Afxentiou on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/03/05/the-best-stocks-to-invest-500-in-right-now/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says this is a great stock selling at a discount.
Daniel Da Costa on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/03/11/is-canadian-tire-stock-a-no-brainer-buy/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says buy for long term growth. The company put out a <a href="https://corp.canadiantire.ca/English/media/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/Canadian-Tire-Corporation-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023-Results/default.aspx" target="_top">Press Release</a> about its fourth quarter results for 2023.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-tire-corporation-tse-ctc-131448285.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> review this stock. Simply Wall Street is showing 4 warnings of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; profit margins (1.3%) are lower than last year (5.9%); dividend of 5.31% is not well covered by earnings; and large one-off items impacting financial results. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.
<br ><br >
Canadian Tire sells home goods, sporting equipment, apparel, footwear, automotive parts and accessories, and vehicle fuel through a roughly 1,700-store network of company, dealer, and franchisee-operated locations across Canada. Aside from the namesake banner, stores operate primarily under the Mark's, SportChek, Party City, Atmosphere, and PartSource monikers. Additionally, the company owns Helly Hansen, a Norwegian sportswear and workwear brand, and also operates and holds majority ownership of a financing arm (Canadian Tire Financial Services; 20% owned by Scotiabank) and a REIT (CT REIT; Canadian Tire owns about 70%). Its web site is here <a href="https://corp.canadiantire.ca/English/home/default.aspx" target="_top"> Canadian Tire Corp</a>.
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The last stock I wrote about was about was H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/h-r-real-estate-trust.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Enbridge Inc (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/enbridge-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Wednesday, March 20, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Globe’s Dividend All-Stars.... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/02/globes-dividend-all-stars.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Tuesday, March 19, 2024 around 5 pm.
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This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-36100577525058868582024-03-15T16:58:00.000-04:002024-03-15T16:58:10.401-04:00H & R Real Estate TrustSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and may be even cheap. Debt Ratios are mostly fine, but debt is high. The important Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) for AFFO and FFO are current fine, but were recently too high. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth restarting after a dividend cut. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/hr.htm" target="_top"> H & R Real Estate Trust</a>.
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Is it a good company at a reasonable price? First, a lot of real estate companies are currently having problems and it will probably take a while for things to turn around. In the meantime, some REITs like this one is offering a very good yield. Since distributions are growing again, it would seem like the distributions are probably safe. The stock price is probably cheap as most of the testing is pointing that way.
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I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF). Before I started blogging, I was following a number of REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.
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When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company has not been doing well lately, and it is not currently well followed as I was having a hard time getting estimates for 2024 and 2025. The only growth expected in the next 12 months is for Net Income to grow 433%, but since it collapsed 97% in 2023, it is still not that great.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Growth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Per Year</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-28.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-6.36%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">AFFO Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-20.98%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-81.74%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-28.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-36.25%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-8.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-56.83%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-15.46%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-52.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-13.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-25.49%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">AFFO Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-23.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.69%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-80.94%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-15.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-52.28%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-7.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-55.87%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-7.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-53.74%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-7.42%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,005.80 you would have bought 47 shares at $21.40 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $707.80 in dividends. The stock would be worth $465.30. Your total return would have been $1,173.10. This would be a total return of 2.13% per year with 7.42% from capital loss and 9.55% from dividends.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$21.40</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,005.80</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">47</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$707.80</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$465.30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,173.10</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth restarting after a dividend cut. The current dividends yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.91%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also good at 5.48%, 6.13% and 6.25%. Dividends were cut in 2020 and the company started to raise them again in 2023. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 9.2%. The dividend is still 56% below the dividends of 2019. This dividends on REITs are generally called Distributions.
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The important Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) for AFFO and FFO are current fine, but were recently too high. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is high at 272% with 5 year coverage at 198%, but the important DPRs are those for AFFO and FFO. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is good at 54% with 5 year coverage too high at 140%. The DPR for 2023 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 45% with 5 year coverage too high at 111%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 32% with 5 year coverage high at 78%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 57% with 5 year coverage high at 74%.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">272.18%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">198.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AFFO</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">53.63%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">140.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FFO</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">44.97%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">110.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32.74%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">77.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">67.42%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">74.02%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Debt Ratios are mostly fine, but debt is high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is too high at 1.42 and currently at 1.62. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is too low at 1.17. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.64. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.93. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are fine at 2.08 and 1.08.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.42</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.62</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.17</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.64</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.64</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.93</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.93</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.08</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.08</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.16%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-3.11%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-13.67%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.56%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.89%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.13%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-7.42%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.55%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.69%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.18%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.91%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.26%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.46%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.18%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.34%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.32%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.86%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.12%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.98%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1996</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">27</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.92%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.38%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.30%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.69%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.02, 6.99 and 7.97. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.33, 15.95 and 17.57. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.92, 13.30 and 18.91. The current P/E Ratio is 7.48 based on a stock price of $8.68 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $1.16. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I have Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 7.87, 9.14 and 12.23. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.93, 11.27 and 12.60. The current P/FFO Ratio is 7.48 based on a stock price of $8.68 and FFO estimate for 2024 of $1.16. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 9.93, 11.55 and 14.52. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.63, 13.99 and 15.50. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 8.77 based on a stock price of $8.68 and AFFO estimate for 2024 of $0.99. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a Graham Price of $22.75. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.58, 0.65 and 0.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.38 based on a stock price of $8.68. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.85. The current P/B Ratio is 0.44 based on a stock price of $8.68, Book Value of $5,192M and Book Value per Share of $19.83. The current ratio is 49% below the 10 year median ratio. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 11.18. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.71 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $295M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.13 and a stock price of $8.68. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.25%. The current dividend yield is 6.91% based on Dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $8.68. The current yield is 11% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.13%. The current dividend yield is 6.91% based on Dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $8.68. The current yield is 13% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.95. The current P/S Ratio is 2.45 based on a stock price of $8.68, Revenue estimate for 2024 of $927M and Revenue per Share of $3.54. The current P/S Ratio is 50% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and may be even cheap. The dividend yield testing is showing the stock price as reasonable. However, these tests work best on stocks when dividends are growing and dividends were recently cut and then started on this stock. The P/S Ratio testing is saying that the stock price is cheap. The rest of the stock price testing is saying that the stock price is cheap.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $11.00, with a high of $11.50 and low of $10.50. The consensus stock price of $11.00 implies a total return of 33.64% with 26.73% from capital gains and 6.91% from dividends.
<br ><br >
The analysts’ recommendations on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/588/HRUN-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> gives for 2023, 3 Buys, 1 Do Not Buy and 1 Hold. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Christopher Liew on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/03/02/got-10000-to-invest-how-to-turn-it-into-monthly-income/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says you can get great month income investing in this stock. Christopher Liew on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/22/5-stocks-you-can-confidently-invest-500-in-right-now-22/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says invest for its hefty yield and monthly payouts. The company put out a press release on <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/h-amp-r-reit-reports-strong-fourth-quarter-and-year-end-2023-results-803975624.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their fourth quarter of 2023.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/h-r-real-estate-investment-104311323.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> reports on this stock. They list 4 warnings of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; unstable dividend track record; large one-off items impacting financial results; and profit margins (6.8%) are lower than last year (95.3%). Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5.
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H&R Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust principally involved in the ownership of properties in Canada and the U.S. The REIT has four reportable operating segments- Residential, Industrial, Office and Retail, in two geographical locations -Canada and the United States. The operating segments derive their revenue from rental income from leases. The majority of this income is generated by its Canadian properties. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.hr-reit.com/" target="_top"> H & R Real Estate Trust</a>.
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The last stock I wrote about was about was RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/riocan-real-estate.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/canadian-tire-corp.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Monday, March 18, 2024 around 5 pm.
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This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-47664749252345731252024-03-13T17:28:00.007-04:002024-03-15T17:09:23.283-04:00RioCan Real EstateSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and may even be cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. The important Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) for AFFO and FFO are fine. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth back after declining distributions. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/rei.htm" target="_top"> RioCan Real Estate</a>.
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Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I bought this stock for diversification purposes as I own no real estate. The problem with stocks that pay high yields is that the is not much growth in dividends, but you do get a good return of passive income. At this point, it might be a speculative buy as it does have office Real Estate and there are problems in office Real Estate at this point in time. I plan to keep my shares in the stock for the same reasons I bought it.
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I own this stock of RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF). I first bought this stock in 1998 because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. It was a stock covered and recommended by MPL Communications in their Income Trust coverage. Over the years I have made several more purchases of this REIT.
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When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the value of my shares is depressed, but my total return is fine. I have had this stock since 1998, so for 26 years. I have made a number of purchases over the years. My total return is 9.16% with a capital loss of $0.40% and dividends at 9.56%. A lot of real estate stocks are currently depressed. Normally I would expect such stock to have a capital gain around 3% a year and the rest from distributions.
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If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,015.57 you would have bought 41 shares at $24.77 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $354.54.21 in dividends. The stock would be worth $763.42. Your total return would have been $1,297.96. This would be a total return of 3.16% per year with 2.81% from capital loss and 5.98% from dividends.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">$24.77</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,015.57</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">41</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$534.54</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$763.42</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,297.96</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth back after declining distributions. The dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.15%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also good at 5.37%, 5.37% and 6.54%. The dividends have gone down over the past 5 years by 5.7% per year. After dividends were cut in 2021, the company started to raise them again in 2022. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 2.8%. The dividend payment is still 23% below payments made in 2020.
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The important Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) for AFFO and FFO are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is high at 823% with 5 year coverage at 117%, but the important DPRs is the AFFO and FFO. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is fine at 70% with 5 year coverage at 79%. The DPR for 2023 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is fine at 60% with 5 year coverage at 70%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is high at 65% with 5 year coverage at 74%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 cannot be calculated because of negative FCF with 5 year coverage high at 913%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 cannot be calculated because of negative FCF with 5 year coverage high at 90%. There are often differences in how different companies calculate the FCF.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">823.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">116.63%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AFFO</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">69.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">79.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FFO</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">60.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">69.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">65.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">74.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 1</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">N/C</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">912.88%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 2</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">N/C</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">90.17%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is too high at 1.07 and currently at 1.09. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.81. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.00. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 2.00 and 1.00.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.07</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.81</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.29</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-5.73%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.73%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.70%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.16%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.81%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.98%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.59%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.03%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.09%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.32%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.11%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.99%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.48%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.43%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.77%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.66%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.19%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.80%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.49%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.38, 10.43 and 12.17. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.25, 12.06 and 12.87. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.73, 12.67, and 15.27. The current P/E Ratio is 10.26 based on a stock price of $18.05 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $1.76. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I have Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 10.26, 12.56 and 14.86. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.32, 13.46 and 15.14. The current P/FFO Ratio is 10.08 based on a stock price of $18.05 and FFO estimate for 2024 of $1.79. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 11.32, 14.48 and 16.25. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.41, 14.77 and 16.68. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 12.28 based on a stock price of $18.05 and AFFO estimate for 2024 of $1.47. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a Graham Price of $28.61. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.75, 0.80 and 0.88. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $18.05. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.94. The current P/B Ratio is 0.73 based on a Book Value of $7,438M, Book Value per Share of $24.76 and a stock price of $18.05. The current ratio is 22% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.94. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.07 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $386M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.28 and a stock price of $18.05. The current ratio is 6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
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I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.54%. The current dividend yield is 6.15% based on dividends of $1.11. The current dividend yield is 6% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
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I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.37%. The current dividend yield is 6.15% based on dividends of $1.11. The current dividend yield is 15% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
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The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.32. The current P/S Ratio is 4.68 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $1,160M, Revenue per Share of $3.86 and a stock price of $18.05. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and may even be cheap. The 10 year dividend yield is test is showing the stock price as reasonable and below the median. However, this test is best for dividend growth stocks and this stock has recently cut dividends. The P/S Ratio testing is showing the stock price as cheap. Most of the rest of the testing is showing the stock price as cheap.
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When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (5) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $21.62, with a high of $24.00 and low of $19.00. The consensus price of $21.62 implies a total return of $25.93% with 19.78% from capital gains and 6.15% from dividends.
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There are four recommendations on<a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/1034/REIUN-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> for 2023, two are a Buy and two are Do Not Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. There is a problem in the Real Estate sector re Offices.
Demetris Afxentiou on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/03/04/passive-income-seekers-invest-10000-for-100-in-monthly-income/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this is a good stock for passive income. Aditya Raghunath on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/27/better-buy-in-february-2024-riocan-reit-stock-vs-canadian-national-railway-stock/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this stock is a solid long term investment.. The company put out a <a href="https://www.riocan.com/English/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2024/RioCan-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Year-End-2023-Results---FFO-per-Unit-Growth-Enables-Annualized-Distributions-Increase-of-2.8-to-1.11-Per-Unit/default.aspx" target="_top">Press Release</a> for year-end 2023.
<br ><br >
Vancouver Island Guy on <a href="https://twitter.com/VanIsleInvestor/status/1721356049528332520/photo/1" target="_top">Twitter</a> talks about this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5. It lists 4 warnings of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; profit margins (3.3%) are lower than last year (19.2%); unstable dividend track record; and large one-off items impacting financial results.
<br ><br >
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust is a Canadian real estate investment trust which owns, develops, and operates Canada's portfolio of retail-focused, increasingly mixed-use properties. The REIT's property portfolio includes shopping centers and mixed-use developments, with majority of its properties located in Ontario, Canada. RioCan’s tenants consist of grocery stores, supermarkets, restaurants, cinemas, pharmacies, and corporates. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.riocan.com/English/home/default.aspx" target="_top"> RioCan Real Estate</a>.
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The last stock I wrote about was about was Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/bombardier-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/h-r-real-estate-trust.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Friday, March 15, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Banks .... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/03/canadian-banks.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Thursday, March 14, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-74310530521460425122024-03-11T16:07:00.006-04:002024-03-12T15:41:17.036-04:00Bombardier IncSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Sector Stock. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. Debt Ratios are awful as it has a lot of debt and a negative book value. This stock currently does not current pay dividends, but it has in the past and may do so again. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/bbd.htm" target="_top"> Bombardier Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The big negative for me is the negative book value. Personally, I would not buy a stock with a negative book value. I do not like the fact that a number of stock price testing cannot be done. The debt ratios are also not good. I would suggest that any purchase is highly speculative. Personally, I am not interested in this company at the present time.
<br ><br >
I do not own this stock of Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) but I used to. The buying of this stock was part of my early foray into industrial stocks in 1987. Up until 2001, I was making some 35% return per annum on this stock. When the stock first dropped in 2002, I had still made some 28% return per annum on this stock. Even by the lowest point in 2005, I had made some 13% per annum on this stock. By that time, it seemed to be turning itself around, so I did not sell. I lost hope by 2017, so I sold. I made 11.08% per year.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company still has a negative book value. This company is reporting in US$.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,037.25 you would have bought 9 shares at $19.88 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $23.21 in dividends. The stock would be worth $478.89. Your total return would have been $502.10. This would be a total loss of 7.21% per year with 7.44% from capital loss and 0.23% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock consolidation, which means that the original cost is showing as higher because of this consolidation.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$115.25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,037.25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$23.21</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$478.89</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$502.10</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
This stock currently does not current pay dividends, but it has in the past and may do so again. However, analysts seem to feel that it could restart dividends this year. The last year that this stock paid a dividend was 2014
<br ><br >
Debt Ratios are awful as it has a lot of debt and a negative book value. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is too high at 1.46 and currently at 1.49. This ratio should be under 1.00 and best at 0.50 or lower. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is too low at 1.00. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still too low at 1.10 and currently at 1.12. I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is of course too low at 0.84 as the company has a negative book value. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 cannot be calculated because of a negative book value.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.46</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.49</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.02</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.84</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-5.18</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-5.18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-6.18</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-6.18</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 37 to the end of 2023 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.95%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.95%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-7.21%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-7.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.55%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-3.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.23%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-5.04%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.81%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-5.60%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-6.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.75%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.72%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.47%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1988</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">35</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.69%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1987</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">37</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.96%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.94%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.02%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2023 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.40%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.40%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-9.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-9.66%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.84%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.34%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.12%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-5.14%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-5.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-6.02%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.77%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.77%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.54%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1890</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">34</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.18%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.99%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.19%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are all negative, so I can do not test using them. The 10 year ratios are also all negative, and so cannot be used. The historical ratios are 9.39, 12.39 and 15.30. The current P/E Ratio is 9.47 based on a stock price of $52.72 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $5.57 (4.13 US$). This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the historical median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) Data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.08, 7.96 and 9.78. The current P/AEPS 9.44 based on a stock price of $39.08 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $4.14. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.
<br ><br >
I cannot do any Graham Price testing because of the negative book value. I cannot do any Price/Book Value per Share Ratio testing because of the negative book value. I cannot do any dividend yield testing because this company, at the current time, is not paying dividends.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.18. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.32 based on a stock price of $39.08, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $7.35 and a Cash Flow of $718M. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.30. The current P/S Ratio is 0.45 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $8,506M, Revenue per Share of $87.10 and a stock price of $39.08. The current ratio is 50% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. I am going with the P/S Ratio test here. This is the only one that says that the stock price is expensive. Other tests go from cheap to reasonable and above the median. One problem is that a number of tests cannot be done as the Book Value is negative.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (7), Hold (3), Underperform (2) and Sell (1). There is not much consensus here. The consensus based on Analysts’ Consensus score in a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $77.94 ($57.86 US$) with a high of $100.01 ($74.24 US$) and low of $41.03 ($30.46 US$). The consensus stock price of $77.94 implies a total return of 47.84% with 47.84% from capital gains and 0% from dividends.
<br ><br >
There are only entries on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/130/BBDB-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> from 2023 and there are 4 Do Not Buy recommendations. However, the last recommendation was a Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Christopher Liew on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/03/06/after-struggling-in-2023-these-2-stocks-could-make-a-big-comeback-in-2024/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this stock could rebound in 2024. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/29/better-buy-bombardier-stock-or-cae/" target="_top"> Motley Fool</a> thinks this company has an uncertain future. The company put out a <a href="https://bombardier.com/en/media/news/bombardier-2023-results-set-new-highs-earnings-and-revenues-2024-guidance-reflects" target="_top">Press Release</a> on their year-end results for 2023.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bombardier-inc-tse-bbd-b-100830550.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> looks at this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars. They have 4 warnings of negative shareholder’s equity; interest payments are not well covered by earnings; significant insider selling over the past 3 months; and shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
<br ><br >
Bombardier designs, manufactures, markets, and provides parts and maintenance for its large, long-range Global and medium-to-large Challenger aircraft families of business jets. Most of the company's revenue is generated in North America, with operations in Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, and other markets. Its web site is here <a href="https://bombardier.com/en" target="_top"> Bombardier Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was be Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.ca/2024/03/emera-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/riocan-real-estate.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Wednesday, March 13, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about TFSA Calculator .... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/03/tfsa-calculator.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Tuesday, March 12, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-41388342281572979942024-03-08T14:29:00.001-05:002024-03-08T14:29:07.262-05:00Emera IncSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and may even be cheap. Debt Ratios are generally not good ones, with debt being too high. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine, especially when considering dividends paid in Cash. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ema.htm" target="_top"> Emera Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? What I do not like about this stock is the debt level, but this is not the first time debt level has been very high for this company. Utilities tend to have a lot of debt, but the debt for the company is still unusually high. I wonder if this is a good idea for a utility stock at the current time. However, I do own this company and I do not intend to sell.
<br ><br >
I own this stock of Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA). I first bought this stock in 2005, as I wanted to buy something for my Locked in RRSP. I think that this was an appropriate stock and has good value. I was using up excess cash in my account.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done well with this stock. As of the end of February, I have earned 9.31% per year with 3.30% from capital gains and 6.01% from dividends. I have had this stock for almost 19 years, but my purchases have been spread out and my last purchase was in 2023. Generally, I have found buy stocks over time gives me a better return.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,008.81 you would have bought 33 shares at $30.57 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $740.44 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,659.90. Your total return would have been $2,400.34. This would be a total return of 10.84% per year with 5.11% from capital gain and 5.73% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$30.57</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,008.81</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$740.44</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,659.90</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$2,400.34</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.89%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.69%, 4.62% and 4.77%. The dividend increases are low (below 8% per year) at 4.1% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine, especially when considering dividends paid in Cash. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is high at 78% with 5 year coverage at 82%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is high at 94% with 5 year coverage at 91%. The DPR for dividends paid in cash in 2023 is a lot lower at 47% with 5 year coverage at 53%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 34% with 5 year coverage at 43%.
<br ><br >
The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF) is not calculable because of so many years of negative FCF with 5 year coverage at a negative 40%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 2 (FCF) is good at 32% with 5 year coverage at 57%. Problem is that there is disagreement on what the FCF is. This seems to be a typical problem for FCF.
<br ><br >
Note that a lot of utility companies only pay a portion of their dividends in cash because shareholders can use their dividends to buy more shares rather than receive cash. This accounts for the Dividend Reinvestment Plan that shareholders use through registration of their shares with Emera. Note that also now, shareholders can reinvest their dividends via their brokers and the percentage above does not take this into consideration.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">78.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">82.42%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">94.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">90.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Div Pd Cash</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">46.70%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">53.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">43.21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 1</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">N/C</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-39.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 2</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">31.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">56.92%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are generally not good ones, with debt being too high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is far too high at 1.25 and currently at 1.29. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is far too low at 0.82 and 0.82 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are too low at 1.13 and currently at 1.16. I prefer these ratios to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is low at 1.44. I also prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are too high 3.71 and 2.57. I prefer these ratios to be below 3.00 and 2.00.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.41</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.82</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.13</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.44</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.71</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.71</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.57</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.57</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.41%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.85%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.56%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.03%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.84%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.11%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.33%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.14%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.60%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.53%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.32%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.02%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.66%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.49%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.47%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.61%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.61%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.99%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1992</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">31</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.67%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.10%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.57%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.56, 17.25 and 18.23. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.95, 16.56 and 17.83. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.41, 15.36 and 17.08. The current P/E Ratio is 15.10 based on a stock price of $48.73 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $3.23. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.58, 19.25 and 22.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.23, 18.08 and 19.57. The current ratio is 15.18 based on a stock price of $48.73 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $3.21. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $52.04. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.00, 1.15 and 1.27. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.94 based on a stock price of $48.73. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.62. The current P/B Ratio is 1.30 based on a stock price of $48.73, Book Value of $1,422 and Book Value per Share of $37.49. The current ratio is 19.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $38.20, but this Book Value is calculated differently from how I do the calculation and with this calculation, the 10 year median ratio would be 1.44. With a Book Value per Share of $38.20, this implies a ratio of 1.28 with a stock price of $48.73 and Book Value of $10,853M. This ratio is 11% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.24. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.95 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $8.19, Cash Flow of $2,327M and a stock price of $48.73. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.77%. The current dividend yield is 5.89% based on dividends of $2.87 and a stock price of $48.73. The current ratio is 23% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.62%. The current dividend yield is 5.89% based on dividends of $2.87 and a stock price of $48.73. The current ratio is 28% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.09. The current ratio is 1.78 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $7,774M, Revenue per Share of $27.36 and a stock price of $48.73. The current ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and may even be cheap. The dividend yield tests are saying that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. Other testing is saying the stock price is either reasonable or cheap.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (6), Underperform (1), and Sell (1). The consensus would be Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $52.64 with a High of $60.00 and Low of $44.00. The consensus price of $52.64 implies a total return of $13.91% with 8.02% from capital gains and 5.89% from dividends.
<br ><br >
Mixed reviews on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/422/EMA-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> for 2024. There are two Buys, one Watch and one Do Not buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. This stock is no longer on the Money Sense dividend list, but it is on others I follow.
Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/03/06/the-smartest-dividend-stocks-to-buy-with-400-right-now-16/" target="_top">Motley Fool </a> thinks it is smart to buy utilities currently, especially Emera. Daniel Da Costa on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/03/03/tfsa-dividend-stocks-how-you-can-earn-400-per-month-of-growing-passive-income/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks you should buy Emera for passive dividend income. Emera put out a <a href="https://investors.emera.com/news/news-details/2024/Emera-Reports-2023-Fourth-Quarter-and-Annual-Financial-Results/default.aspx" target="_top">Press Release</a> on their fourth quarter of 2023.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/emera-insiders-placed-bullish-bets-114603309.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> put out a report on this company. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 5.94% is not well covered by cash flows; and shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.
<br ><br >
Emera is a geographically diverse energy and services company investing in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution as well as gas transmission and utility energy services. Emera has operations throughout North America and the Caribbean countries. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.emera.com/" target="_top"> Emera Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/igm-financial-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2023/03/bombardier-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Monday, March 11, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-44104226963676933792024-03-06T09:43:00.005-05:002024-03-07T15:34:56.158-05:00IGM Financial IncSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine, but it would be nice if they were lower. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth non-existent. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/igm.htm" target="_top"> IGM Financial Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Currently, I would think that the only reason to buy this company is because of the dividends which seem to be stable and sustainable and they are good. This is called passive income investing. Not what I like to do at the moment as I am into lower dividend yields, but dividend growth. However, it all depends on what you want in your investments. The results of the stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I do not own this stock of IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF). I am following this stock because I used to own this stock. The stock was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks and on the other Dividend lists at that time. I owned this stock from 2006 to 2011. I sold because I decided to rationalizing my portfolio. Selling ones that did not make it into my core and buying ones that did of the same type.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they have not increased their dividend since 2015. Most of the return is from the dividends. Currently the dividend yield is rather good at 6.35%.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,009.62 you would have bought 18 shares at $56.09 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $403.18 in dividends. The stock would be worth $630.18. Your total return would have been $1,033.38. This would be a total return of 0.28% per year with 4.60% from capital loss and 4.89% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$56.09</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,009.62</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$403.20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$630.18</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,033.38</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.35%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yield is also good at 6.04% and 5.97%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.34%. The dividends have not been increased since 2015. Analysts do not expect this to change in the near term.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine, but it would be nice if they were lower. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 47% with 5 year coverage fine at 60%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is fine at 66% with 5 year coverage at 65%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is fine at 67% with 5 year coverage at 68%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is fine at 78% with 5 year coverage at 79%.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">46.68%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">59.65%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">65.41%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">64.76%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">66.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">68.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">78.28%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">79.11%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.29 and currently at 0.28. Because this is a financial, I am also looking at Long Term Debt/Covering Asset Ratio and there are good in 2023 at 0.72. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.96. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.56. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are fine at 2.78 and 1.78.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.29</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R A</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.72</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.72</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.47</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.46</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.96</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.56</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.78</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.78</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.78</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.38%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.46%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.28%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.60%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.89%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.09%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.19%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.53%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.59%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.37%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.34%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.14%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.97%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.66%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.82%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1990</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.89%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.53%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.62%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.31, 9.58 and 12.57. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.74, 11.33 and 13.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.96, 14.98, and 17.48. The current P/E Ratio is 9.76 based on a stock price of $35.44 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $3.63. the current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.92, 10.83 and 12.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.54, 11.38 and 9.54. The current ratio is 9.50 based on a stock price of $35.44 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $3.73. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $48.67. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.84, 0.98 and 1.10. The current ratio is 0.73 based on a stock price of $35.44. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.91. The current P/B Ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $35.44, Book Value of $6,700M and Book Value per Share of $28.22. The current ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 11.78. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.54 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $3.07, Cash Flow of $731M and a stock price of $35.44. The current P/CF Ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.34%. The current dividend yield is 6.35% based on dividends of 2.25% and a stock price of $35.44. This dividend yield is 46% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.26%. The current dividend yield is 6.35% based on dividends of 2.25% and a stock price of $35.44. This dividend yield is 6% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.81. The current P/S Ratio is 2.55 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $3,305M, Revenue per Share of 13.88 and a stock price of $35.44. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively reasonable. The 10 year median dividend yield test says this as does the P/S Ratio test. However, a lot of the tests suggest that the stock price is cheap.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $41.71 with a high of $37 and low of $35.23. This implies a total return of 24.04% with 17.69% from capital gains and 6.35% from dividends.
<br ><br >
On analyst thought this stock on <a href=" https://stockchase.com/company/view/622/IGM-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> was a buy in 2023, but the latest analyst’s recommendation is a Do Not Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Joey Frenette on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/31/buy-this-not-that-1-top-stock-to-buy-and-1-to-sell-in-february/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says to sell this stock as it does not have a lot going for it. This is unusual, as generally speaking, writers on Motley Fool are positive about the stocks they talk about. Adam Othman on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/10/28/how-to-create-a-450-month-income-stream-for-your-retirement/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks you should buy this stock for its dividends. The company put out a press release on <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/igm-financial-reports-fourth-quarter-and-2023-earnings-800517692.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their fourth quarter of 2023 results.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/igm-financial-tse-igm-pay-195853970.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> talks about buying this stock for its consistent and sustainable dividends. Simply Wall Street has one warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.3% per year for the next 3 years. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5.
<br ><br >
IGM Financial is the largest non-bank-affiliated asset manager in Canada. The firm is part of the Power Financial group of companies. IGM has two main operating divisions of asset management (operated through Mackenzie Investments) and wealth management (via its Investors Group Wealth Management subsidiary) that provide investment management products and services. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.igmfinancial.com/en" target="_top"> IGM Financial Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was TFI International Inc (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/tfi-international-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.ca/2024/03/emera-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Friday, March 8, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy March 2024 .... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/03/something-to-buy-march-2024.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Thursday, March 7, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-41333089017374772682024-03-04T17:25:00.001-05:002024-03-05T16:06:04.461-05:00TFI International IncSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tfii.htm" target="_top"> TFI International Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I see analyst recommendation of a Strong Buy but the 12 month price consensus is only a 3.01% total return, which is very low. This does not make much sense to me. I do think that this is a great company, but the it seems to be that it is currently rather expensive.
<br ><br >
I own this stock of TFI International Inc (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF). I read a report called "6 Canadian Dividend Stocks That Fly Under the Radar" by John Heinzl in April of 2013. This is one of the stocks mentioned. There was also a good review of this stock by Advice Hotline by MPL Communications.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done incredibly well with this stock. I have had it for just almost 7 years and have made a total return of 35.18% per year with 33.04% from capital gains and 2.14% from dividends.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,010.40 you would have bought 40 shares at $25.26 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $400.77 in dividends. The stock would be worth $7,209.60. Your total return would have been $7,610.37. This would be a total return of 23.31% per year with 21.71% from capital gain and 1.60% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$25.26</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,010.40</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">40</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$400.77</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$7,209.60</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$7,610.37</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. The current dividend is low (below 2%) at 1.08%. The 5 year median dividend yield is also low at 1.18. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.24% and 2.58%. The dividend increases are good (15% and above per year) at 17.9% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 14.3%.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 24% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 23% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 9%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 19% with 5 year coverage at 17%.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">24.14%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">22.65%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.56%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.76%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.63%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.10%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.11 and currently at 0.10. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a bit low at 1.25 and 1.25 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.09 and currently at 2.05. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.70 and 1.70 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are fine at 2.42 and 1.42.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.11</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.18</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.09</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.70</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.42</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.42</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.42</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.13%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">40.47%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">38.55%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.54%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">23.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">21.71%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.64%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32.63%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">28.58%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.76%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.82%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.34%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.72%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">23.91%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.32%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1990</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19.38%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.01%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.37%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2023 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.85%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">41.29%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">39.29%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.99%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.09%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.54%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19.11%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.43%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.10%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32.50%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">27.88%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.34%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">21.62%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.67%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.95%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.76, 12.07 and 16.77. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.07, 12.12 and 17.31. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.45, 11.86 and 14.16. The current P/E Ratio is 20.51 based on a stock price of $201.46 and EPS estimate for $9.82. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/AEPS Earnings per Share Ratios 8.73, 11.12 and 16.39. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.91, 14.53 and 17.63. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 20.07 based on a stock price of $201.46 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $10.04. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $96.72. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.97, 1.20 and 1.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.08 based on a stock price of $201.46. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.45. The current P/B Ratio is 4.83 based on a stock price of $148.31, Book Value of $2,591M, and a Book Value per Share of $30.69. The current ratio is 97% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will a similar result in CDN$.
<br ><br >
I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $34.30 US$. This implies a P/B Ratio of 4.32 with a Book Value of $2,896M and stock price of $148.31. This ratio is 77% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.78. The current P/CF Ratio is 12.79 based on a stock price of $148.31, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $11.60 and Cash Flow of $979.5M. The current ratio is 64% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will a similar result in CDN$.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.58%. The current dividend yield is 1.08% based on dividends of $1.60 and a stock price of $148.31. The current ratio is 58% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will a similar result in CDN$.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.51%. The current dividend yield is 1.08% based on dividends of $1.60 and a stock price of $148.31. The current ratio is 52% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will a similar result in CDN$.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.72. The current P/S Ratio is 1.39 based on a stock price of $148.31, Revenue estimate for 2024 of $8,991M and Revenue per Share of $106.48. The current ratio is 94% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will a similar result in CDN$.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The dividend yield tests points to an expensive stock price. The P/S Ratio test confirms this. All the other testing is saying that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (10), Buy (6) and Hold (4). The current consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $205.36 ($151.40 US$), with a high of $237.37 ($175.00US$) and low of $166.57 ($122.80 US$. The 12 month stock price consensus price of $205.36 implies a total return of 3.01% with 1.94% from capital gains and 1.08% from dividends.
<br ><br >
Analysts seem to like this stock on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/1233/TFII-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a>. The two entries for 2024 are buys. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on all my dividend lists. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/28/3-reasons-to-buy-tfi-stock-like-theres-no-tomorrow/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> reviews this stock and still thinks it is a buy even after it is up a lot. Robin Brown <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/24/tfsa-investors-3-incredible-stocks-for-2024/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> calls this stock a trucking success story. The company put out a press release via <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/02/08/2826445/0/en/TFI-International-Announces-2023-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Results.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their fourth quarter of 2023 results.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tfi-international-inc-tse-tfii-173322644.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street put out one warning of has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.
<br ><br >
TFI International Inc is a transportation and logistics company domiciled in Canada. The company organizes itself into four segments: package and courier, less-than-truckload, truckload, and logistics. TFI International derives the majority of revenue domestically, followed by the United States. Its web site is here <a href="https://tfiintl.com/en/" target="_top"> TFI International Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.ca/2024/03/atrium-mortgage-investment-corp.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/igm-financial-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Wednesday, March 6, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks March 2024 .... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/03/dividend-stocks-march-2024.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Tuesday, March 5, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-50851506516705470852024-03-01T16:57:00.006-05:002024-03-01T16:57:36.944-05:00Atrium Mortgage Investment CorpSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Some Debt Ratios are good, but they do have a lot of debt. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine I think as the company is deliberately paying out a lot of their earnings as dividends. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low and with special dividends. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ai.htm" target="_top"> Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? If you buy this stock, it is best to hold in a RRSP or TFSA because the dividends are taxed as Interest Income. I expect the special dividends to decline in the near future because EPS is expected to decline. The company is keeping the regular dividend flat and giving out special dividends depending on how well the company does. It is a good way of doing things in an uncertain market. The stock price is currently cheap, probably because the analysts expect EPS to drop over the near term. I own this stock and I intend to keep this stock after this review.
<br ><br >
I own this stock of Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF). I saw this on company on the <a href="http://www.dividendgrowthinvestingandretirement.com/canadian-dividend-all-star-list/" target="_top">Canadian Dividend All-Star List</a>. It has just recently started to pay dividends. It has only been around since 2012 and has good dividends. Dividends are good but are taxed as income.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the special dividends are declared in one year and paid in the next year in February. They are in the annual statements in the year they are declared, not in the year paid. Of course, what is unusual about this stock is that they have lots of special dividends. This company produces a lot of income, but not much in capital gains. The income from this company is classified at Interest Income, not Dividends.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,008.12 you would have bought 93 shares at $10.84 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $889.23 in dividends. The stock would be worth $978.36. Your total return would have been $1,867.59. This would be a total return of 8.53% per year with 0.30% from capital loss and 8.83% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$10.84</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,008.12</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">93</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$889.23</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$978.36</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,867.59</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low and with special dividends. The current dividend yield is high (7% and higher) at 7.96%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also high at 7.28%, 7.24% and 7.22%. The dividend increases are low. The 5 year growth for dividends is low (below 8% per year) at 0.04% per year.
<br ><br >
The current total dividend yield is high (7% and higher) at 10.44%. The 5, 10 and historical total dividend yields are also high at 7.84%, 7.77% and 7.69%. Since 2018, all the dividend increases are for the special dividends. The 5 year growth for dividends and special dividends is low at 3.8% per year. Every year since 20174, this company has given out a special dividend. It is determined at the end of the year to be paid in the following year.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine I think as the company is deliberately paying out a lot of their earnings as dividends. Most of the DPR calculations looks at dividends per share compared to EPS. However, sometimes this can give a distorted view of dividend and earnings. So, for this company, I looked a Net Income and total dividends paid and currently the percentage is 82% with current percentage at 85%. This is lower then the traditional DPR calculations below. The Special Dividend is still quite high for 2024 because it is based on how well the company did in 2023. I would expect the special dividend to be lower in 2025 because EPS is expected to decline in the near future.
<br ><br >
The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is high at 99% with 5 year coverage at 97%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is high at 63% with 5 year coverage at 70%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 2 (FCF) is fine at 55% with 5 year coverage at 60%. I got my Free Cash Flow values from 2 different sources.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">99.12%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">96.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Tot Div</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">82.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">84.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">62.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">69.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 1</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">54.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">74.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 2</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">54.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">59.92%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Some Debt Ratios are good, but they do have a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is high at 0.81 and currently at 0.76. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a good at 1.86 and 1.86 currently, but not important for financials. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.22 and 2.22 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.82 and 0.82.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.81</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.76</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.86</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.36</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.83</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.22</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.82</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.82</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.82</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 14 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.80%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-3.53%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.42%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.53%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.30%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2009</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.81%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.44%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.69, 11.67 and 15.06. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.73, 12.56 and 13.56. The current P/E Ratio is 10.00 based on a Stock Price of $11.30 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $1.13. The current P/E Ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $16.70. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 0.79 and 0.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.68 based on a stock price of $11.30. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 1.03 based on a stock price of $11.30, Book Value of $482.2M and Book Value per Share of $10.97. The current ratio is 9.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $11.00. This implies a ratio of 1.03 based on a stock price of $11.30 and Book Value of $483.6M. This ratio is 9.9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.57. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.43 based on a stock price of $11.30, Cash Flow for last 12 months of $77.3M and Cash Flow per Share of $1.76. The current ratio is 39% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.22% for the regular dividends only. The current dividend yield is 7.96% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $11.30. The current dividend yield is 10% above the historical regular dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.69% for the total dividends. The current dividend yield is 10.44% based on regular dividends of $0.90, special dividend of $0.28 and a stock price of $11.30. The current dividend yield is 36% above the historical total dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 7.24% for the regular dividends only. The current dividend yield is 7.96% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $11.30. The current dividend yield is 10% above the 10 year regular dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 7.77% for the total dividends. The current dividend yield is 10.44% based on regular dividends of $0.90, special dividend of $0.28 and a stock price of $11.30. The current dividend yield is 34% above the 10 year total dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.89. The current P/S Ratio is 5.07 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $97.9M, Revenue per Share of $2.23 and a stock price of $11.30. The current ratio is 36% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. For the dividend tests, I really think you have to use the total dividend. Both the historical and 10 year dividend tests show the stock price as cheap. If you use the regular dividends, these tests show stock is reasonable but below the median. The P/S Ratio test is showing the stock price as cheap. Most of the rest of the testing is showing the stock price as cheap.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Buy (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $12.96 with a high of $13.42 and low of $12.50. The 12 month stock price consensus of $12.96 implies a total return of $25.13%, with 14.69% from capital gains and 10.44% from dividends.
<br ><br >
<a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/4659/AI-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a>. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. It is not on any of my current dividend lists. Christopher Liew on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/12/02/boosting-your-monthly-income-tsx-stocks-that-deliver/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> likes this stock for its dependable monthly payments. Adam Othman on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/08/09/3-tsx-dividend-stocks-for-5-figure-passive-income/" target="_top"> Motley Fool</a> likes this stock for its yield and that the dividends are financial sustainable.. The company put out a press release via <a href="https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/198123/Atrium-Mortgage-Investment-Corporation-Announces-Highest-Annual-Net-Income-in-Its-History-and-a-Record-Special-Dividend" target="_top">Newsfile</a> about its year end 2023 results.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/theres-no-escaping-atrium-mortgage-103700845.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street has three warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.6% per year for the next 3 years; unstable dividend track record; and has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. This is a low higher than for Stock Chase.
<br ><br >
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp is a mortgage investment corporation in Canada. The company is a provider of financing solutions to commercial real estate and development communities in urban centers in Ontario and Western Canada. The company generates its revenue from mortgage interest and fees and rental income. Its web site is here <a href="https://atriummic.com/" target="_top"> Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/choice-properties-reit.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be TFI International Inc (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/03/tfi-international-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Monday, March 4, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-75781377764175289402024-02-28T17:22:00.000-05:002024-02-28T17:22:11.570-05:00Choice Properties REITSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable an at or below the median. Debt Ratios are probably fine, but the company does have a lot of debt, but then REITs tend to have lots of debt. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low and inconsistent. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/chp.htm" target="_top"> Choice Properties REIT</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a REIT and therefore will probably be a good producer of income rather than growth. I like companies that provide a total return of 8%. This company does. I originally bought some REITs for diversification purposes. I did not buy this stock but acquired it when they took over CDN REIT. I have no intentions of selling it. Currently the price seems reasonable.
<br ><br >
I own this stock of Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF). I got this stock when CDN REIT was acquired by Choice Properties. Choice was originally a spin off from Loblaws. Later George Weston Limited (TSX-WN) in a reorganization received Loblaw’s share of Choice (61.6% interest) and Loblaws minority shareholders got George Weston Limited shares. The Weston Family owns a majority share in George Weston Ltd and George Weston Limited has a controlling interest in Loblaws.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed since I have had Choice REIT, I have earned a total return of 8.85 over 5.7 years, with 2.91% from capital gains and 5.48% from dividends. I go Choice because it bought out CDN REIT that I owned. My total return over some 17 years is 10.06% per year with 4.86% from capital gains and 5.20% from dividends.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,009.92 you would have bought 96 shares at $10.52 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $562.64 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,339.20. Your total return would have been $1,901.84. This would be a total return of 8.89% per year with 2.86% from capital gain and 6.03% from dividends.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$10.52</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,009.92</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">96</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$562.64</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,339.20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,901.84</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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<br >
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low and inconsistent. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.54%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also good at 5.42%, 5.54% and 5.42%. Grown in distributions is slow and irregular. The distributions have increased at a low rate (below 8%) at 0.22% per year for the past 5 years. There was only one increase in the past 5 years and that was in 2023 for 1.35%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 68% with 5 year coverage at 190%, but the DPR for AFFO and FFO are more important. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is fine at 90% with 5 year coverage at 91%. The DPR for 2023 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 75% with 5 year coverage at 77%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 32% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF) is good at 38% with 5 year coverage fine at 64%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 2 (FCF) is good at 38% with 5 year coverage fine at 59%.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">67.97%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">189.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AFFO</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">90.49%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">90.56%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FFO</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">74.61%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">76.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32.09%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">31.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 1</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">38.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">63.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 2</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">38.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">59.33%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are probably fine, but the company does have a lot of debt, but then REITs tend to have lots of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is high at 0.66 but REITs usually have high debt levels. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a good at 3.99. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still good but lower at 2.10. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is low at 1.34 and I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 too high at 3.96 and 2.96, but REITs do have a lot of debt.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.96</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 10 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
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<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.22%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.42%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.89%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.86%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.03%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.77, 14.61 and 15.45. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.95, 13.19 and 14.44. The current P/E Ratio is 13.54 based on a stock price of $13.54 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $1.00. The current P/E ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 11.82, 13.94 and 16.00. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.55, 13.09 and 14.79. The current P/FFO Ratio is 13.15 based on a stock price of $13.54 and FFO estimate for 2024 of $1.03. The current P/E ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 14.34, 16.69 and 18.82. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.87, 15.75 and 17.74. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 14.56 based on a stock price of $13.54 and AFFO estimate for 2024 of $0.93. The current P/E ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $15.98. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.88 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.85 based on a stock price of $13.54. The current P/E ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.23 based on a Book Value of $4,360M, Book Value per Share of $11.02 and a stock price of $13.54. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.00. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.35 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $642M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.62 and a stock price of $13.54. The current ratio is 39% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.42%. The current dividend yield is 5.54% based on dividends of $0.75 and a stock price of $13.54. The current dividend yield is 2.2% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.54%. The current dividend yield is 5.54% based on dividends of $0.75 and a stock price of $13.54. The current dividend yield is at the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.13. The current P/S Ratio is 6.76 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $1,450M, Revenue per Share of $2.00. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable an at or below the median. The dividend tests are saying the stock price is reasonable and at or below the median. The P/S Ratio test confirms this. Most of the other testing is saying the stock price is reasonable and below or above the median.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (4) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.88 with a high of $16.00 and a low of $13.00. The consensus price of 14.88 implies a total return of $15.44%, with 9.90% from capital gains and 5.54% from dividends.
<br ><br >
On <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/4566/CHPUN-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> there are two entries for 2022 and they are both Buys. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is not on my dividend lists. Kay Ng on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/16/choice-properties-reit-raises-distribution-on-stable-earnings/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says it is blue-chip for income, but do not expect much growth. Christopher Liew on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/31/retirement-boost-how-couples-can-use-the-tfsa-to-earn-780-yearly-in-tax-free-income/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says this is a good stock for your TFSA for earning income. The company put out a <a href="https://www.choicereit.ca/news-releases/choice-properties-real-estate-investment-trust-reports-results-for-the-year-ended-december-31-2023-and-announces-distribution-increase/" target="_top">Press Release</a> on their fourth quarter of 2023.
<br ><br >
This article on Baystreet via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-play-choice-properties-real-144700709.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> talks about this REIT repurchasing shares. There was an article on in January 2023 on <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-you-shouldnt-buy-4.8-yielding-choice-properties-reit-tse:chp.un" target="_top"> Tip Ranks </a>. The authors explain why you should not buy this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street issues two warnings of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; and large one-off items impacting financial results
<br ><br >
Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust invests in commercial retail, industrial, mixed-use, and residential properties across Canada. The company's portfolio primarily consists of shopping centers anchored by supermarkets and stand-alone supermarkets. The properties are mostly located in Ontario and Quebec, followed by Alberta, Nova Scotia, British Columbia, and New Brunswick. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.choicereit.ca/" target="_top"> Choice Properties REIT</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Nuvei Corp (TSX- NVEI, OTC- NVEI) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/nuvei-corp.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.ca/2024/03/atrium-mortgage-investment-corp.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Friday, March 1, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Retirement Mistakes.... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/02/retirement-mistakes.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Thursday, February 29, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
<br ><br > SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-9710368928186529042024-02-26T17:37:00.007-05:002024-02-26T17:44:47.760-05:00Nuvei CorpThis morning, I sold Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc (TSX-NBLY, OTC-NBLYF). It is being bought out and I see no reason to hold it any longer for the few extra cents per share I could get at buyout time. I have replaced this stock with Nuvei Corp (TSX- NVEI, OTC- NVEI). I am using my fooling around money as this is a highly speculative stock.
<br ><br >
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is testing as cheap, but the company only when public in September 2020 and it is a Tech stock. Debt Ratios mostly fine, but all the ratios have declined between 2022 year-end and the third quarter of 2023. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good with dividends just starting in 2023. The current dividend yield is Low with dividend growth for the future unknown. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/nvei.htm" target="_top"> Nuvei Corp</a>.
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Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company has only been around for a few years, so it is really hard to tell the future. However, Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec has invested in this company. Quebec does seem to be able to grow companies. This company is a speculative buy. The stock price is quite volatile. It is testing as cheap, but has only been around since September 2020 and is down from its IPO price.
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I own this stock of Nuvei Corp (TSX- NVEI, NASDAQ- NVEI). I was looking for another stock to follow and used G&M Stock Screener to find a dividend paying stock that looked interesting.
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When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock went public September 17, 2020 on TSX and Nasdaq. See article on <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/nuvei-closes-tsx-s-largest-tech-ipo-ever-raises-805-million-in-gross-proceeds-1.1498257" target="_top">Bloomberg</a>. Also see article on <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/09/17/2094934/0/en/Nuvei-Corporation-Announces-Pricing-of-Initial-Public-Offering.html" target="_top">Newswire</a>. This company reports in US$ and is listed on the TSX and NASDAQ.
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If you had invested in this company in December 2020, for $1,011.27 you would have bought 13 shares at $77.79 per share. In December 2023, after 2 years you would have received $0.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $447.33. Your total return would have been $447.33. This would be a total loss of 33.49% per year with 33.49% from capital loss and 0% from dividends.
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<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$77.79</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,011.27</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$0.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$447.33</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$447.33</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The current dividend yield is Low with dividend growth for the future unknown. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.60%. Dividend were just started in halfway through 2023. Future dividend is up to discretion of the Board. This is the usual case.
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The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good with dividends just starting in 2023. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) are awful, but it is the DPR for AEPS that counts. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 12%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 9%. They just started to pay dividends in 2023 and these are the values for 2023.
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<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
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<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-194.86%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-16.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.92%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.38%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.95%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.22%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.28%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Debt Ratios mostly fine, but all the ratios have declined between 2022 year-end and the third quarter of 2023. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.14 and currently at 0.34. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.69 and too low currently at 1.03. I like this to be at 1.50 or higher. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are good at 1.96 and too low currently at 1.00. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.69 and too low at 1.0. currently. I also like to see this ratio at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.79 and 0.78 and fine currently at 2.32 and 1.31.
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<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
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<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.14</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.51</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.69</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.96</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.69</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.79</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.78</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.31</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The Total Return per year is shown below for 2 years to the end of 2023 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
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<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
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<td class="tg-lqy6">2020</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-33.49%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-33.49%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Total Return per year is shown below for 2 years to the end of 2023 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
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<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
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<td class="tg-lqy6">2020</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-35.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-35.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The 2-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 61.77, 122.23 and 182.88. The 2023 P/E Ratio is negative and so unusable. The P/E Ratio for 2024 is 57.90 based on a stock price of $33.64 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $0.58 ($0.43 US$). This ratio is below the low ratio of the 2 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The ratios are very high, so if you buy, it is best to keep an eye on this stock. This testing was in CDN$.
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I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share data. The 2-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 27.96, 54.63 and 71.44. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 11.82 based on a stock price of $24.93 and a AEPS estimate for 2024 of $2.11. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 2 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
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I get a Graham Price of $30.37. The 2-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.82, 3.06 and 3.80. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.82 based on a stock price of $24.93. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 2 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
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I get a 2-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.66. The current P/B Ratio is 0.94 based on Book Value of $1,200M, Book Value per Share of $26.43 and a stock price of $24.93. The current ratio is 80% below the 2 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
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I get a 2-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 24.47. The current P/B Ratio is 8.17 based on Cash Flow per Share for 2024 of $3.05 and a stock price of $24.93. The current ratio is based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $3.05, Cash Flow of $425.6M and a stock price of $24.93. The current ratio is 83% below the 2 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
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The stock just started to pay a dividend in 2023, so there are no real comparisons to be made. What I can say is that the dividend yield in 2023 was 1.52% and it is now 1.60% and therefore 5% higher.
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The 4-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 17.99. The current P/S Ratio is 2.52 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $1,381, Revenue per Share of $9.90, and a stock price of $24.93. the current ratio is 86% below the 4 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
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Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is testing as cheap, but the company only when public in September 2020 and it is a Tech stock. When looking at stock prices, everything is relative. I have Revenue information going back 4 years and P/S Ratio tests says the stock is relatively cheap. Also, the P/GP Ratio is below 1.00 at 0.82.
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When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7), Buy (8) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $38.59 ($28.47 US$) with a high of $46.09 ($34.00 US$) and low of $27.11 ($20.00 US$). The consensus price of $38.59 CDN$ implies a total return of 16.34% with 14.73% from capital gains and 1.61% from dividends based on a current stock price of $33.64.
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The two recent recommendations on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/6403/NVEI-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> from analysts are Do Not Buy and Buy. Stock Chase gave this stock 4 stars out of 5. Adam Othman on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/21/2-top-stocks-to-add-to-your-tfsa-in-february-2024/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this is a good stock for your TFSA.
Brian Paradza on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/21/could-nuvei-stock-help-you-become-a-millionaire/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says this stock is beaten down but has recovery potential. The company put out a <a href="https://nuvei.com/company/press-releases/nuvei-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2022-results/" target="_top">Press Release</a> on their fourth quarter results. The company put out a press release via <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/nuvei-announces-third-quarter-2023-results-878911267.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their third quarter of 2023. The company talks about their payment systems via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/nuvei-initiates-global-roll-enhanced-130000025.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a>.
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Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/38-ownership-nuvei-corporation-tse-124103994.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> talks about who owns shares in the company.
Nuvei Corp is a provider of payment technology solutions to merchants and partners. The solutions provided are mobile payments, online payments, and In-store payments. Its geographical segments are North America; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; Latin America; and the Asia Pacific. The vast majority of its revenue is generated from North America and EMEA. Its web site is here <a href="https://investors.nuvei.com/" target="_top"> Nuvei Corp</a>.
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The last stock I wrote about was about was Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.ca/2024/02/manulife-financial-corp.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/choice-properties-reit.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Wednesday, February 28, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Can You Live on Dividends.... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/02/can-you-live-on-dividends.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Tuesday, February 27, 2024 around 5 pm.
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This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-58655698035103890552024-02-23T15:48:00.005-05:002024-02-23T15:48:54.150-05:00Manulife Financial CorpSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Insurance. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. I see no problems with The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR). The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mfc.htm" target="_top"> Manulife Financial Corp</a>.
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Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a life insurance stock. I consider it a long term hold. I have not done that well on this stock, but I have no intentions of selling it. Many analysts think it will do better in the future. The stock price seems reasonable at this time based on the 10 year dividend yield test.
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I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). This has not been a great investment as I have had it for almost 19 years and I have made a total return of 3.87% per year with 1.01% from capital gains and 2.86% from dividends. Basically, I bought some of this stock in 2016 at prices higher than the current price. Generally, buying a stock over time rather than a single purchase works out best, but not in this case at present.
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This company has not always done well for long term investors. See the chart on Total Return below. What you like to see that Total Return is at least 8% for all long term periods. Although, I knew that the very low interest rates we had for many years would be detrimental to life insurance companies. Bye the way, I have no intentions of selling my shares in this company.
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When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this life insurance company also made big changes because of new versions of IFRS. I do not update my spreadsheets because a previous was restated, unless there was an accounting error. This is because I cannot change all the previous years. Fortunately, I did find some continuity. It will be interesting to see how all these new changes work out in future years.
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If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,004.64 you would have bought 48 shares at $20.93 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $469.92 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,405.44. Your total return would have been $1,875.36. This would be a total return of 7.27% per year with 3.41% from capital gain and 3.86% from dividends.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-0lax">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Years</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Tot Ret</th>
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<td class="tg-0lax">$20.93</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">$1,004.64</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">48</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">$469.92</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">$1,405.44</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">$1,875.36</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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<br >
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.45%. The 5 year median dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.37%. The 10 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.17% and 3.20%. The dividend increases are moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.9% per year over the past 5 years.
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I see no problems with The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR). The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 56% with 5 year coverage good at 39%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 12% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is fine at 13% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 7% with 5 year coverage at 7%.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">55.94%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">39.09%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.85%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">39.01%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.91%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.99%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.89%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2023 is fine at 0.97 and currently at 0.97. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a bit low at 1.12 and 1.12 currently, but unimportant for financials. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are good at 1.98 and currently at 1.40. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is fine at 1.06 as this is a financial.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R A</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.97</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.64</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.19</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.12</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.98</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.06</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.06</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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</style>
<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.92%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.88%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.61%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.26%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.88%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.27%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.41%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.56%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.58%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.62%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.88%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.69%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1999</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">24</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.64%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.11%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.53, 7.14 and 9.46. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.53, 9.99 and 11.45. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.82, 13.74 and 15.72. The current P/E Ratio is 9.31 based on a stock price of $32.81 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $3.53. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.86, 7.71 and 8.88. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.96, 8.14 and 10.01. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 8.87 based on a stock price of $32.81 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $3.70. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $43.13. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.52, 0.63 and 0.73. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.70 based on a stock price of $32.81. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.04. The current P/B Ratio is 1.47 based on Book Value of $40,349M, Book Value per Share of $22.34 and a stock price of $32.81. The current P/B Ratio is 42% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $24.80. This implies a ratio of 1.32 with a stock price of $32.81 and Book Value of $43,886M. This ratio 28% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.35. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.12 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $4.61, Cash Flow of $8,326M and a stock price of $32.81. the current ratio is 203% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, the Cash Flow per Share estimate seems out of line with the past history for CVPS, I would think that this test is suspect.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.20%. The current dividend yield is $4.88% based on Dividends of $1.60 and a stock price of $32.81. The current dividend yield is 52% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.17%. The current dividend yield is $4.88% based on Dividends of $1.60 and a stock price of $32.81. The current dividend yield is 17% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.80. The current P/S Ratio is 1.39 based on Revenue of $42,480M, Revenue per Share of $23.52 and a stock price of $32.81. The current ratio is 75% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, the Revenue figures have been very volatile lately. I do wonder how good this test is.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. I am going with the 10 year dividend yield test. I note that there is no problem with the DPRs. The P/E Ratio, P/AEPS Ratio and P/GP Ratio tests are good and the stock price is shown as reasonable. The P/B Ratio tests are good and they say the stock price is expensive. I do not think that the P/S Ratio or P/CF tests are good.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (8), Hold (4) and Underperform (1). The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $34.05 with a high of $40.00 and low of $26.20. The consensus stock price of $34.05 implies a total return of 8.66% with 3.78% from capital gain and 4.88% from dividends.
<br ><br >
Analyst on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/780/MFC-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> have mixed views of this company. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on my dividend lists. Kay Ng on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/16/manulife-stock-raises-dividend-by-9-6-on-good-earnings-in-2023/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this stock was too depressed for too long. It had good earnings, price popped and it has a good dividend. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/15/manulife-stock-jumps-on-strong-global-performance/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this stock is a long term buy as it finds more opportunities in Asia. The company put out a press release via <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manulife-reports-full-year-and-fourth-quarter-2023-results-302062330.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their 2023 results.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/just-four-days-till-manulife-110052126.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> talks about this company’s dividends. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It lists no warning messages.
<br ><br >
Manulife Financial provides life insurance, annuities, and asset management products to individuals and group customers in Canada, the United States, and Asia. The U.S. business, which primarily operates under the John Hancock brand, contributes about 30% of earnings. The Asia segment contributes around 30% of earnings. The Canadian business segment contributes approximately 20% of earnings. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.manulife.com/" target="_top"> Manulife Financial Corp</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/intact-financial-corp.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Nuvei Corp (TSX- NVEI, OTC- NVEI) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/nuvei-corp.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Monday, February 26, 2023 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-43889274293099423682024-02-21T17:26:00.005-05:002024-02-21T17:26:47.654-05:00Intact Financial CorpSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Insurance. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still reasonable, but at the high end of the reasonable range. Some Debt Ratios are good like the important Liquidity Ratio, but the Debt Ratio is too low and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ifc.htm" target="_top"> Intact Financial Corp</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company has grown it dividends with moderate yield and moderate growth. They have done well for their shareholders over the longer term. This is a General Insurance company and as such will be more volatile that say a Life Insurance company. If you plan to buy, be cautious as the stock price is relatively high. It is testing still as reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I do not own this stock of Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF). I am following this stock because in November 2011, the TD Bank put out a special report on the merits of dividend investing. At the end of the report, they listed a number of Canadian stocks as Equity Yield ideas. This was one stock listed that I did not follow. This and Wajax are from TD Report on dividend investing.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they totally revamped their income statement and it was hard to find in continuity with all the Revenue data that I had for past years. I did the best I could. I looked at sites that usually update financial statements online and found only one who had updated their sites for 2023 income financials. I cannot figure out where they get their revenue data from for 2023.
<br ><br >
The company has put out all sorts of data for 2023, but sometimes more data is just that, more data. It does not always been better data. I did find a reasonable Revenue figure. This will probably become clearer with the annual report next year.
<br ><br >
Revenue was not the only part of the annual statements with no continuity. It was quite frustrating to update the spreadsheet. I notice that a number of sites updated their financials for other statements, but not for Income.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,040.55 you would have bought 15 shares at $69.37 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $448.20 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,057.90. Your total return would have been $3,506.10. This would be a total return of 13.96% per year with 11.38% from capital gain and 2.58% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$69.37</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,040.55</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$448.20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,057.90</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,506.10</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.12%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate at 2.21%, 2.53% and 2.56%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14%) at 9.5% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 10% and it occurred in 2024.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 63% with 5 year coverage good at 40%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 47% with 5 year coverage at 37%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is high at 54% with 5 year coverage good at 29%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is fine at 62% with 5 year coverage good at 30%.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">62.95%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">40.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">47.36%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">37.35%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">53.85%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">29.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">62.10%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">29.68%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Some Debt Ratios are good like the important Liquidity Ratio, but the Debt Ratio is too low and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.14 and currently at 0.13. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a bit good at 2.82 and 2.82 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is low at 1.42. I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are too high at 3.40 and 2.40. I prefer these ratios to be below 3.00 and below 2.00.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.14</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.82</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.38</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.42</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.40</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.40</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.40</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.46%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.23%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.50%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.60%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.96%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.38%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.81%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.23%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.23%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2004</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.21%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.75%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.75%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.66%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.06, 18.45 and 21.84. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.96, 17.94 and 20.35. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.98, 15.57 and 16.95. The current P/E Ratio is 18.64 based on a stock price of $227.80 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $12.22. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.78, 15.66 and 18.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.38, 16.68 and 18.59. The current ratio is 15.89 based on a AEPS estimate for 2024 of $14.34 and a stock price of $227.80. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $171.15. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.16, 1.27 and 1.37. The current ratio is 1.33 based on a stock price of $227.80. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.09. The current ratio is 2.51 based on a Book Value of $16,190M, Book Value per Share of $90.79 and stock price of $227.80. The current ratio is 19.9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I also have a Book Value per Share (BVPS) estimate of $89.00 for 2024. This implies a ratio of 2.56 with a stock price of $227.80 and Book Value of $15,871M. This ratio is 22% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.87. The current ratio is 22.01 based on Stock Price of $227.80, Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $1,846, and Cash Flow per Share of $10.35. The current ratio is 71% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.56%. The current dividend yield is 2.12% based on dividends of $4.84 and a stock price of $227.88. The current yield is 17% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.53%. The current dividend yield is 2.12% based on dividends of $4.84 and a stock price of $227.88. The current yield is 16% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.65. The current ratio is 1.89 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $21,497M, Revenue per Share of $120.55 and a stock price of $227.80. The current dividend is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. Although, with the trouble I had reconciling the new accounting with the old accounting for revenue, I have to wonder about this test. The place where I got the estimate from did not include revenue values for 2023 (but did for prior years). They do give an estimate close to what I get as the Revenue figure.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still reasonable, but at the high end of the reasonable range. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. the P/S Ratio test says this as do most of the rest of my testing.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (8), Hold (3) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $237.50 with a high of $256.00 and low of $221.00. The consensus price of $237.50 implies a total return 6.38% with 4.26% from capital gains and 2.12% from dividends.
<br ><br >
Analyst on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/1999/IFC-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> like this stock. The only recommendation in 2024 is to buy on weakness Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on my dividend lists. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/16/intact-financial-climbs-to-all-time-high-on-buybacks-with-an-11-dividend-increase/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says this stock has climbed to an all-time high on buybacks. Adam Othman on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/12/tfsa-4-canadian-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this is a stock to buy and hold forever. The company put out a press release via <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/intact-financial-corporation-reports-q4-2023-results-869607634.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their year-end results for 2023.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/intact-financial-tse-ifc-paying-140226822.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> talk about dividend payments under this stock. Simply Wall Street list 3 warnings for this stock of large one-off items impacting financial results; profit margins (5.2%) are lower than last year (11.5%), and significant insider selling over the past 3 months.
<br ><br >
Intact Financial Corp is a property and casualty insurance company that provides written premiums in Canada. Most of the company's direct premiums are written in the personal automotive space. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.intactfc.com/" target="_top"> Intact Financial Corp</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was First National Financial Corporation (TSX-FN, OTC-FNLIF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/first-national-financial-corporation.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.ca/2024/02/manulife-financial-corp.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Friday, February 17, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Brian Feroldi.... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/02/brian-feroldi.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Thursday, February 22, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-85726863250776673672024-02-19T16:30:00.002-05:002024-02-19T16:30:09.238-05:00First National Financial Corporation Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios could improve, especially the Debt Ratio. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are high, but they are giving out special dividends. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low with some special dividends. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/fn.htm" target="_top"> First National Financial Corporation </a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This financial company pays a lot in dividends (and special dividends) and has given shareholders good returns. A high portion of the returns on this company is paid in dividends. It is probably a bit risky, but if you want dividend income this stock has that. It looks like this stock is still selling at a reasonable price.
<br ><br >
I do not own this stock of First National Financial Corporation (TSX-FN, OTC-FNLIF). I found this stock looking through dividend stocks on G&M Stock Screener. It is also on the Dividend Aristocrat list, but not on the Money Sense list. This is a new stock for me to cover.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this company pays a lot of dividends and it often pays a special dividend.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1015.20 you would have bought 54 shares at $18.80 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $1,225.58 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1.966.68. Your total return would have been $3,192.26. This would be a total return of 15.43% per year with 6.84% from capital gain and 5.59% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$18.80</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,015.20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">54</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,225.58</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,966.68</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,192.26</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low with some special dividends. The current dividends are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.17%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also good at 6.01%, 6.49% and 6.70%. The company has given out 8 special dividends in the last 16. The dividend increases are low (below 8% per year) at 5.4% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 2.1%. This was a second increase in 2023.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are high, but they are giving out special dividends. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is high at 72% with 5 year coverage at 89%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is high at 926% with 5 year coverage acceptable at 48%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow does not really matter. The company has chosen high Dividend Payout Ratios, especially considering their special dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">72.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">89.31%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">925.91%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">48.30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">28.99%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1084.92%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios could improve, especially the Debt Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2023 is fine at 0.98 and currently at 0.98. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is not important. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 very good at 3.57 and 2.73 currently, but this ratio does not matter. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.53 and 1.76. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is low at 1.02 and 1.02 currently. This ratio matters and I would prefer to see it at least at 1.04 for this financial.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R A</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.98</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19.54</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19.07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.57</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.73</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.07</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.89</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.02</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.02</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2017</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.85%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.46%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.81%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.66%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2012</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.53%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.43%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.84%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.59%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2007</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.50%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.53%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.63%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2002</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.25%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.88%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.30%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.58%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.33%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.76%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.73%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.68%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.23%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.03%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.89%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.85%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.25%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.61%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.33, 12.04 and 14.02. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.33, 10.99 and 13.61. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.32, 10.14 and 13.31. The current P/E Ratio is 9.65 based on a stock price of $40.87 and EPS of $4.24. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $33.49. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.18, 1.35 and 1.66. The current ratio is 1.22 based on a stock price of $40.87. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.86. The current ratio is 3.47 based on a Book Value of $706M, Book Value per Share of $11.77 and a stock price of $40.87. The current ratio is 10% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $11.20. This ratio implies a Book Value of $672M and a ratio of 3.65 with a stock price of $40.87. This ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.65. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.45 based on Cash Flow for the Third Quarter of 2023 of $234.6M, Cash Flow per Share of $3.91 and a stock price of $40.87. The current ratio is 125% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.70%. The current dividend yield is 5.99% based on dividends of $2.45 and a stock price of $40.87. The current dividend yield is 11% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.49%. The current dividend yield is 5.99% based on dividends of $2.45 and a stock price of $40.87. The current dividend yield is 8% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio 2.83. The current P/S Ratio is 2.72 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $900M, Revenue per Share of $15.01 and a stock price of $40.87. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The two dividend yield tests are showing the stock price as reasonable but above the median. The P/S Ratio test is showing the stock price as reasonable and below the median. The other testings are basically showing the stock price as reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (6). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $42.23 with a high of $45.00 and low of $40.00. The 12 month stock price of $42.23 implies a total return of $9.32% with 5.99% from dividends and 3.33% from capital gains.
<br ><br >
The last recommendations are dated 2019 on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/2498/FN-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a>. However, the analysts seem to like this company. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. Andrew Button on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/05/2-financial-stocks-that-could-go-parabolic/" target="_top">Motley Fool </a> thinks this stock could go parabolic in 2024. Christopher Liew on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/31/passive-income-mastery-how-to-build-a-portfolio-with-20000/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says this is a fundamentally strong company with an impressive dividend track record. The company put out a <a href="https://www.firstnational.ca/investor-relations/news-releases/news-article/2023/02/28/first-national-financial-corporation-reports-fourth-quarter-annual-2022-results" target="_top"> press release</a> on their fourth quarter of 2022 results. The company put out a <a href="https://www.firstnational.ca/investor-relations/news-releases/news-article/2023/10/31/first-national-financial-corporation-reports-third-quarter-2023-results-increases-common-share-dividend-and-announces-special-dividend" target="_top">Press Release</a> on their Q3 2023 results.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street has a report on <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-first-national-financial-tse-174020635.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> about this company. Simply Wall Street has one warning of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5.
<br ><br >
First National Financial Corp is the parent company of First National Financial LP, a Canadian originator, underwriter, and servicer of predominantly prime residential and commercial mortgages. Most mortgages originated by First National are funded either by placement with institutional investors or through securitization conduits, in each case with retained servicing. Its web site is here <a href=" https://www.firstnational.ca/" target="_top"> First National Financial Corporation </a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/russel-metals-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/intact-financial-corp.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Wednesday, February 21, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about China and Their Stock Markets.... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/02/china-and-their-stock-markets.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Tuesday, February 20, 2023 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-72049353556806526702024-02-16T14:57:00.001-05:002024-02-16T14:57:05.324-05:00Russel Metals IncSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. Debt Ratios are very good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/rus.htm" target="_top"> Russel Metals Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock is volatile. They do pay dividends and they have good debt ratios. It will probably never be a star but it is solid and has made shareholders money over the long term. I bought it before I was into dividend growth stocks. It pays a good dividend, but dividends do not grow much. I would probably not buy it today, but I have no intentions of selling this stock either. Currently, it would seem that the stock price is expensive.
<br ><br >
I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there has been some volatility in my returns on this stock. To the end of January this year, my total return is 8.03%, with 3.58% from capital gains and 4.45% from dividends. Last year at this time, my total return was 6.61%.
<br ><br >
When I was looking at Officers and Directors and insider buying and selling, I found some were buying and some were selling and some kept what stocks they held. This was of the people I was following. Of the officers I was following, the CEO and two officers were buying shares. The CFO and one officer were selling shares. Of the directors I was following the Chairman and one other director was selling shares and two directors kept what they had. The company is currently buying shares. Of course, the thing is that people buy shares because they feel good about a company’s future, but people sell for all sorts of reasons.
<br ><br >
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. This shows good growth in the past, but analysts do not seem to be expected good growth this year.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-0lax">Year</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Grth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Per Yr</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Gwth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Coverage</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.58%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">23.01%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.23%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.39%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">21.78%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.02%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.96%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">425.26%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">39.34%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.95%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.78%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.27%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">111.11%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.12%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.82%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">41.32%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.52%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.77%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">216.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.20%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-8.78%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">220.94%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.37%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-22.01%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">225.83%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.54%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-44.54%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.86%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.22%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.80%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">43.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.67%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.82%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,004.48 you would have bought 32 shares at $31.39 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $486.40 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,440.96. Your total return would have been $1,927.36. This would be a total return of 7.85% per year with 3.67% from capital gain and 4.18% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$31.39</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,004.48</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$486.40</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,440.96</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,927.36</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.39%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.09%, 5.75% and 5.08%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at just 0.78% over the past 5 years. That is because dividends were flat between 2015 and 2022. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 5.3%.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 36% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 24% with 5 year coverage at 24%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF) from TD WebBroker is good at 24.58% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 2 (FCF) from the company is good at 24.58% with 5 year coverage at 29%.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">36.49%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">40.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">23.80%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">24.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 1</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">24.58%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30.74%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 2</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">24.58%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">29.17%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is very good at 0.11. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is very good at 4.14 and 4.14. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is very good at 2.76. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.57 and 0.57.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.11</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.04</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.04</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.14</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.92</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.76</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.76</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.57</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.57</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.57</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.78%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">21.62%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.12%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.51%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.22%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.85%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.67%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.87%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.99%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.92%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.07%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.98%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.56%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.51%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.57%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19.82%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.76%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.42%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.82%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1990</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.67%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.70%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.21%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.50%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.68, 8.56 and 10.45. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.34, 10.96 and 12.58. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.16, 9.13 and 9.99. The current P/E Ratio is 11.95 based on a stock price of $47.20 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $3.95. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $49.13. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.72, 1.06 and 1.20. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.96 based on a stock price of $47.20. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.54. The current P/B Raio is 1.74 based on a stock price of $47.20, Book Value of $1,639M and Book Value per Share of $27.16. The current ratio is 12.5% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $29.70. This implies a ratio of 1.59 with a Book Value of $1,794M and stock price of $47.20. The current ratio is 2.9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.29. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.13 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $4.24, Cash Flow of $256M, and stock price of $47.20. The current ratio is 110% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.08%. The current dividend yield is 3.39% based on a stock price of $47.20 and dividends of $1.60. The current dividend yield is 33% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.75%. The current dividend yield is 3.39% based on a stock price of $47.20 and dividends of $1.60. The current dividend yield is 41% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.46. The current P/S Ratio is 0.60 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $4,765M, Revenue per Share of $78.91 and a stock price of $47.20. The current ratio is 30% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield tests are saying this. They have not been growing their dividends much over the last 10 years, but the dividend yields have big difference. The P/S Ratio test confirms what the dividend yield tests are saying. Other tests are saying that the stock price is reasonable but above the median or expensive.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (4) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $49.88 with a high of $56.00 and low of $46.00. The consensus price of $459.88 implies a total return of 9.07% with 5.68% from capital gains and 3.39% from dividends.
<br ><br >
The analysts in 2023 on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/1077/RUS-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> liked the company. There was a sell recommendation in 2022 because of flat dividends at that time. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense Dividend List. Ambrose O'Callaghan on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/05/22/2-cheap-tsx-stocks-im-buying-again-and-again/" target="_top"> Motley Fool</a> likes this stock because it is cheap and has a great dividend. Brian Paradza on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/05/10/materials-in-demand-the-best-stocks-to-buy-today/" target="_top">Motley Fool </a> says this is a good stock for income-oriented dividend investors. The company put out a press release on <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/russel-metals-announces-2023-annual-amp-fourth-quarter-results-852518361.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their fourth quarter of 2023 results.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russel-metals-tse-rus-investors-174558035.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street has one warning of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.4% per year for the next 3 years
<br ><br >
Russel Metals Inc is a Canada-based metal distribution company. The company conducts business primarily through three metals distribution segments: metals service centers; energy products; and steel distributors. The company generates all of its revenue from the North American market. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.russelmetals.com/en/" target="_top"> Russel Metals Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/arc-resources-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be First National Financial Corporation (TSX-FN, OTC-FNLIF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/first-national-financial-corporation.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Monday, February 19, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-90590971394006659192024-02-14T18:16:00.001-05:002024-02-14T18:16:05.531-05:00ARC Resources LtdSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Resource. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/arx.htm" target="_top"> ARC Resources Ltd</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? There are a number of resource stocks on dividend lists. Personally, I do not like resource stocks and do not buy much of them. What I do not like is their volitivity and when I have bought them, it has been for the short term and I keep an eye on them. But analyst and some conservative investor like resource stocks. The testing of this stock as too price seems to point to a reasonable price, although I saw problems with some of my testing. This stock is below its last high reached in 2014.
<br ><br >
I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that it seems that timing is everything when buying this stock. It is a resource stock and so it is probably cyclical. It is interesting that the stock price 25 years ago and 5 years ago are close. See charts below.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,005.38 you would have bought 34 shares at $29.57 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $219.84 in dividends. The stock would be worth $668.78. Your total return would have been $888.62. This would be a total loss of 1.41% per year with 3.99% from capital loss and 2.58% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$29.57</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,005.38</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">34</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$219.84</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$668.78</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$888.62</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2018, for $1,004.40 you would have bought 124 shares at $8.10 per share. In December 2023, after 5 years you would have received $268.58 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,439.08. Your total return would have been $2,707.66. This would be a total gain of 23.28% per year with 19.42% from capital gain and 3.86% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$8.10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,004.40</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">124</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$268.58</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$2,439.08</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$2,707.66</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
If you had invested in this company in December 1998, for $1,000.40 you would have bought 164 shares at $6.10 per share. In December 2023, after 25 years you would have received $5,388.38 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,225.888. Your total return would have been $8,614.26. This would be a total gain of 29.56% per year with 4.79% from capital gain and 24.77% from dividends. This company used to be a Income Trust and so had very high dividends when it was an Income Trust.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$6.10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,000.40</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">164</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$5,388.38</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,225.88</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$8,614.26</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.18%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate at 3.38% and 3.85%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% and above) at 7.65%. This company used to be an income trust and so had high dividends, but all income trusts had to lower the dividends on becoming a corporation. All the old income trusts have had trouble getting the dividend level right. Over the past 5 years, dividends have increased by just 1.3%. However, in the last 5 years dividends have been cut and increased. The last dividend increase was for 13% and it was in 2023.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 24% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2023 for The DPR for 2023 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 15% with 5 year coverage at 12%. The DPR for 2023 for The DPR for 2023 for Free Funds Flow (FFF) is fine at 50% with 5 year coverage good at 28%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 12%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 18%.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">24.52%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">38.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FFO</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.81%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FFF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">49.61%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">27.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.47%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33.05%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.69%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.10 and currently at 0.09. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a low at 0.91 and 0.91 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.96 and for 2024 estimate of 3.22. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.67 and 0.67.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.02</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.91</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.96</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.50</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.67</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.67</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.67</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.67</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.30%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">23.28%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19.42%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2012</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-6.09%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.41%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-3.99%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2007</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-9.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.37%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.14%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.51%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2002</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-5.04%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.61%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.65%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.96%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1997</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.48%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">29.56%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">24.77%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1996</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">27</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-3.38%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.76%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.59%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.17%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 3.42, 4.90 and 6.38. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.12, 7.44 and 9.75. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.39, 11.89 and 13.95. The current P/E Ratio is 9.78 based on a stock price of $21.41 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $2.19. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 2.12, 3.04 and 4.37. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.35, 4.72 and 6.10. The current ratio is 4.56 based on a stock price of $21.41 and FFO estimate for 2024 of $4.70. The current ratio is above the 10 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I also have Free Funds Flow (FFF). The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Free Funds Flow Ratios are 3.47, 5.96 and 8.98. The corresponding 8 year ratios are 15.54, 22.33 and 29.12. The current ratio is 16.60 based on a stock price of $21.41 and FFF for last 12 months of $1.29. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios the 8 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $24.76. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.59, 0.84 and 1.09. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.86 based on a stock price of $21.41. This ratio is between the medina and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.55. The current P/B Ratio is 1.72 based on a stock price of $21.41, Book Value of $7,428M and Book Value per Share of $12.44. The current ratio is 11% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.75. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.78 based on a stock price of $21.41, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $4.48 and Cash Flow of $2,674M. The current ratio is .5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but at the median.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.65%. The current dividend yield is 3.18% based on a dividend of $0.68 and a stock price of $21.41. The current dividend yield is 58% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, this stock used to be an income trust and income trust have very high dividends. Also, this test works best for companies with increasing dividends and during the past while, dividends have been flat, decreased and increased. So, you have to wonder how good this test is.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.85%. The current dividend yield is 3.18% based on a dividend of $0.68 and a stock price of $21.41. The current dividend yield is 17% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. However, this stock used to be an income trust and income trust have very high dividends. Also, this test works best for companies with increasing dividends and during the past while, dividends have been flat, decreased and increased. So, you have to wonder how good this test is.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.91. The current ratio is 3.08 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $4,858M, Revenue per Share of $6.96 and a stock price of $21.41. The current ratio is 9.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. However, looking a revenue, sites seem to be changing what they are using as Revenue, from Commodity Sales, to Revenue from Commodity Sales to Total Revenue as shown on the financial statements.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable. The 10 year dividend yield test says the stock price is reasonable as does the P/S Ratio test, even though I see problems with these tests. A number of the tests seems to point to a reasonable price.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7) and Buy (8). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $26.63 with a high of $32.00 and low of $25.00. The consensus price of $26.63 implies a total return of 27.56% with 24.38% from capital gains and 3.18% from dividends.
<br ><br >
Analysts on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/32/ARX-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> like this company. Stock Chase gives this company 5 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense Dividend List. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/24/avoid-this-energy-stock-for-now-and-consider-this-top-stock-up-21-instead/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this is a good choice in the resource sector. Jitendra Parashar on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/10/26/2-top-energy-stocks-with-dividends-to-hold-forever/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this is a good stock to buy and hold. The company put out a press release on <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/arc-resources-ltd-reports-record-production-year-end-results-and-reserves-884908237.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their year-end results for 2023.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street reviews this stock via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/weakness-arc-resources-ltd-tse-134832281.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a>. They put out one warning of unstable dividend track record.
<br ><br >
ARC Resources Ltd is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of conventional oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company produces light, medium, and heavy crude, condensate, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.arcresources.com/" target="_top"> ARC Resources Ltd</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/allied-properties-real-estate.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/russel-metals-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Friday, February 16, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Victim of Fraud.... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/02/victim-of-fraud.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Thursday, February 15, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-25774622453566116292024-02-12T17:08:00.002-05:002024-02-12T17:22:10.495-05:00Allied Properties Real Estate Investment TrustSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are fine except for the Liquidity Ratio and this too low. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are mostly fine, but some could be improved upon. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ap.htm" target="_top"> Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The dividend yield is very high at over 10%. No one seems to think that it will go bankrupt, but it does have problems because it has office real estate. On the other hand, the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed in 2015 were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they had an earning loss in 2023 of $3.94 per share. The reason seems to be the write off of properties being held for sale. Since December 2021, the stock price has fallen 59%. The stock price was down 21% last year and is down 10% year to date.
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If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,015.56 you would have bought 31 shares at $32.76 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $495.01 in dividends. The stock would be worth $625.58. Your total return would have been $1,120.59. This would be a total return of 1.23% per year with 4.73% from capital loss and 5.96% from dividends.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$32.76</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,015.56</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">31</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$495.01</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$625.58</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,120.59</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is High (7% and over) at 9.92%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.15%, 4.05% and 4.74%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 2.9% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 2.9%.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are mostly fine, but some could be improved upon. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is negative with a with 5 year coverage fine at 66%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is fine at 82% with 5 year coverage at 82%. The DPR for 2023 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is a little high at 55% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 72% with 5 year coverage at 71%. The important DPRs are the AFFO and FFO ones.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-58.96%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">66.38%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AFFO</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">82.49%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">81.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FFO</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">75.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">71.99%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">54.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">56.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">72.03%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">71.42%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are fine except for the Liquidity Ratio and this too low. The Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.37. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is high at 1.36, but the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio is more important. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a really low at 0.73. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still low at 0.84. If you add back the current portion of the long term debt, it gets just to 1.01 and still very low. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.37. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.73 and 0.73.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R A</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.73</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF +Dd</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.73</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.73</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.86%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-9.26%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-14.56%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.23%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.73%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.27%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.97%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.28%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.11%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.94, 1.43 and 13.24. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.07, 10.16 and 11.49. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.14, 11.43 and 13.24. The Current P/E Ratio is 8.83 based on a Stock Price of $17.75 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $2.01. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 16.04, 19.57 and 22.36. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.08, 19.75 and 22.64. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 9.20 based on a stock price of $17.75 and AFFO estimate for 2024 of $1.96. The current ratio is lower than the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 13.91, 17.01 and 19.96. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.55, 16.87 and 19.50. The current P/FFO Ratio is 7.65 based on a stock price of $17.75 and FFO estimate for 2024 of $2.32. The current ratio is lower than the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $50.03. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 0.89 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.35 based on a stock price of $17.75. The current ratio is below the low ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.98. The current ratio is 0.37 based on a Book Value of $6,135M, Book Value per Share of $47.95 and a stock price of $17.75. The current ratio is 62% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 17.04. The current ratio is 7.07 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $321M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.51 and a stock price of $17.75. the current ratio is 59% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.74%. The current dividend yield is 10.14% based dividends of $1.80 and a stock price of $17.75. The current dividend yield is 114% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.05%. The current dividend yield is 10.14% based dividends of $1.80 and a stock price of $17.75. The current dividend yield is 151% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 8.72. The current P/S Ratio is 4.06 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $559M, Revenue per Share of $4.37 and a stock price of $17.75. The current ratio is 53% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests say the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio test confirms this. Most of the other testing is saying the same thing.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (5) and Hold (3). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $21.15 with a high of $24.00 and low of $19.50. The consensus stock price of $21.15 implies a total return of 29.30%, with 19.15% from capital gains and 10.14% from dividends.
<br ><br >
The analysts on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/2025/APUN-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> do like this stock. It is on the Aristocrat stock list. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/01/beginner-investors-5-top-canadian-stocks-for-2024-2/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says buy for its passive income. Aditya Raghunath on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/02/the-top-canadian-reits-to-buy-in-january-2024/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says buy because it is beaten down and has a tasty dividend. The company put out a press release via <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/01/31/2821612/0/en/Allied-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Year-End-Results.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their fourth quarter results for 2023.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. They have one warning of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
<br ><br >
Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust engaged in the development, management, and ownership of primarily urban office environments across Canada's major cities. Most of the total square footage in the company's real estate portfolio is located in Toronto and Montreal. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.alliedreit.com/" target="_top"> Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Cogeco Communications Inc (TSX-CCA, OTC- CGEAF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/cogeco-communications-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/arc-resources-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Wednesday, February 14, 2024 around 5 pm. TTomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks for 2024.... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/02/dividend-stocks-for-2024.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Tuesday, February 13, 2024 around 5 pm..
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-22890614334101130632024-02-09T15:31:00.006-05:002024-02-09T15:32:28.946-05:00Cogeco Communications IncSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Some Debt Ratios are awful as debt is too high, but at least the Liquidity Ratio is fine The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cca.htm" target="_top"> Cogeco Communications Inc</a>.
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Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Personally, I do not like their debt level, but they have been buying other business and rebuying their shares. Another thing I do not like is that their total return for long term holders is under 8% per year in most years. I do like companies that can manage a total return of at least 8% per year over the long term. This company does not do that, see Total Return chart below. An advantage is that the stock is cheap and the current dividend yield is high. They can afford their dividend payments as the DPRs are under 40%.
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I do not own this stock of Cogeco Communications Inc (TSX-CCA, OTC-CGEAF). This stock was on the Money Sense list when I was looking for a new stock to follow.
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When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed was that there has been a lot of volatility in the stock and in dividends. For dividends, over the past 26 years they have decreased 4 times and increased 17 times. There was also a couple of years of no dividends. However, dividends have been steadily increasing over the past 10 years. A lot of the big swings in stock price also happened more than 10 years ago. See chart below from August 2000 to 2002 when price went from 42.50 to 11.50. Also, see the second chart that is as recent as 2021, stock price went from 100.42 in December 2021 to 59.35 in December 2023.
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<th class="tg-baqh">Aug-00</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Aug-01</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Aug-02</th>
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<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$42.50</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$27.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$11.50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">82.40%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-36.47%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-57.41%</td>
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<th class="tg-baqh">Dec-21</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dec-22</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dec-23</th>
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<td class="tg-lqy6">$100.42</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$76.79</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$59.35</td>
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<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.86%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-23.53%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-22.71%</td>
</tr>
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If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,007.58 you would have bought 21 shares at $47.98 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $434.36 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,246.35. Your total return would have been $1,680.71. This would be a total return of 5.91% per year with 2.15% from capital gain and 3.77% from dividends.
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<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
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</thead>
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<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$47.98</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,007.58</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">21</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$434.36</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,246.35</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,680.71</td>
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The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.58%. The 5, 10 dividend yields are moderate at 2.50%, and 2.40%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.69%.
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The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 35% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 27%.
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<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
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<tbody>
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<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">35.47%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30.53%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33.30%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.92%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.69%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33.21%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">27.05%</td>
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</tbody>
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Some Debt Ratios are awful as debt is too high, but at least the Liquidity Ratio is fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is far too high at 1.89 and currently at 1.72. I like to see this at 1.00 or less. Some analysts think it should be 0.50 or less. The Intangible Good Will/Market Cap Ratio is far too high for 2023 at 2.19 and currently at 2.13. This should also be 1.00 or lower. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a low at 1.09 and 0.59 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.74 and 2.44. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is fine at 1.54 and 1.58 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are too high at 3.30 and 2.14 and currently at 3.16 and 2.00. I prefer to see these ratios below 3.00 and below 2.00.
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<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.89</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.72</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.19</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.09</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.71</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.54</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.58</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.14</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
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<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.03%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.04%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.07%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.55%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.91%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.77%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">36.24%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.92%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.68%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.53%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.91%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.78%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.88%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.86%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.01%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.35%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.70%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.70%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.00%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.04, 11.02 and 12.99. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.67, 12.00 and 14.01. The corresponding Historical ratios are 9.62, 11.66 and 13.71. The current P/E Ratio is 7.40 based on a stock price of $61.24 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $8.28
The current ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.11, 12.30 and 14.34. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.92, 12.39 and 14.00. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 7.53 based on a stock price of $61.24 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $8.13.
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I get a Graham Price of $111.13. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.94, 1.08 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.55 based on a stock price of $61.24. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.03. The current P/B Ratio is 0.91 based on a stock price of $61.24, Book Value of $3,004M, and Book Value per Share of $67.52. The current ratio is 55% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $84.20. This implies a ratio of 0.73 based on a stock price of $61.24 and Book Value of $3,746M. This ratio is 64% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.52. The current ratio is 2.58 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $23.70, Cash Flow of $1,054M and a stock price of $61.24. The current ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.69%. The current dividend yield is 5.58% based on dividends of $3.416 and a stock price of $61.24. The current dividend yield is 230% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.40%. The current dividend yield is 5.58% based on dividends of $3.416 and a stock price of $61.24. The current dividend yield is 133% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.62. The current ratio is 0.92 based on a stock price of $61.24, Revenue estimate for 2024 of $2,973M and Revenue per Share of $66.83. The current ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. I wonder about the dividend yield tests because this company has really rammed up their dividends in the last 10 years or so. However, the P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. All the tests are saying the same thing.
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When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1), Hold (7) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months stock price consensus is $71.40 with a high of $93.00 and low of $63.00. The consensus price of $71.40 implies a total return of 22.17%, with 16.59% from capital gains and 5.58% from dividends.
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The latest recommendation is a wait on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/221/CCA-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a>. In other years there were mixed views about this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is on the dividend lists that I follow. Brian Paradza on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/11/27/dividend-growers-3-canadian-stocks-that-raised-payouts-in-november-2023/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> likes the growing dividend on this stock. Christopher Liew on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/11/16/canadian-investors-2-oversold-canadian-stocks-to-buy-now-2/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> this the stock is oversold and will rebound. The company put out a <a href="https://corpo.cogeco.com/cgo/en/press-room/press-releases/cogeco-releases-its-financial-results-fourth-quarter-fiscal-2023/" target="_top"> Press Release</a> on their fourth quarter of 2023. The company put out a <a href="https://corpo.cogeco.com/cca/en/press-room/press-releases/cogeco-communications-releases-its-financial-results-first-quarter-fiscal-2024/" target="_top">Press Release</a> about their results for the first quarter of 2024.
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Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cogeco-communications-inc-tse-cca-115404039.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> looks at who owns the shares of this company. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street has two warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.3% per year for the next 3 years; and has a high level of debt.
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Cogeco Communications Inc is a communication corporation. The company is a cable operator in North America operating in Canada. The company earns majority of its revenue from American telecommunications. The company operates in Canada and United States. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.cogeco.ca/en/" target="_top"> Cogeco Communications Inc</a>.
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The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/canadian-pacific-kansas-city-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/allied-properties-real-estate.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Monday, February 12, 2024 around 5 pm.
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This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-81274027032288528992024-02-07T17:40:00.001-05:002024-02-07T17:40:59.289-05:00Canadian Pacific Kansas City LtdSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. Debt Ratios are fine, but I would like Liquidity to be a bit better. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cp.htm" target="_top"> Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd</a>.
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Is it a good company at a reasonable price? To me, the dividend yield is very low at just 0.66% and on top of that the have stopped raising dividends. I do not know why it still seems to be on the Dividend Aristocrat List. Although the dividends increase over the past 5 years at 9.4% is good, but this is because good increases in 3 to 5 years ago. They also must integrate its purchase of Kansas City Southern railway. I am still happy with having CNR instead of this stock. Currently, this stock is testing as expensive although the stock price has not done much in the last 3 years.
<br ><br >
I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP). I am following this stock because it is a dividend growth stock. It is one that was on Mike Higgs' list. It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and chose CN as my railway stock.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company has stopped raising their dividends. Dividends have been flat since 2021. Analyst think that dividends will be raised in 2024, but they also thought last year that there would be a dividend raise in 2023.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,028.16 you would have bought 32 shares at $32.13 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $171.84 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,355.20. Your total return would have been $3,527.04. This would be a total return of 13.47% per year with 12.56% from capital gain and 0.92% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$32.13</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,028.16</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$171.84</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,355.20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,527.04</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br ><br >
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 0.66%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low at 0.83%, 0.89% and 1.23%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.4% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2021 and it was for 14.5%. Dividends have been flat since then, but analysts expect dividends to increase in 2024.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 18% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 17% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow I got values through TD WebBroker (1) and the company (2). FCF 1 is good at 42% with 5 year coverage at 42%. FCF 2 is good at 34% with 5 year coverage at 31%.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.05%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.49%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.34%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 1</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">42.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">42.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF 2</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">34.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30.72%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br ><br >
Debt Ratios are fine, but I would like Liquidity to be a bit better. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.20 and currently at 0.18. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a low at 0.53 and 0.53 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratio is low at year end at 1.15 but fine currently at 1.50. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.13 and 2.13 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.93 and 0.90.
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.21</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.53</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.53</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.13</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.13</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.93</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.93</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.90</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.90</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br ><br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.40%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.78%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.70%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.09%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.50%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.47%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.56%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.38%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.04%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.52%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.56%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.25%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.16%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.02%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.47%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.55%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.14%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.92%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.48%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1988</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">35</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.14%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.92%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.24%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br ><br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.25, 22.00 and 24.57. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.21, 20.82 and 24.17. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.34, 16.32 and 16.67. The current ratio is 26.91 based on a stock price of $114.75 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $4.26. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 22.45, 24.40 and 26.34. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.67, 21.66 and 25.68. The current ratio is 26.02 based on a stock price of $114.75 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $4.41. This ratio is higher than the 10 high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $66.46. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.71, 2.04 and 2.35. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.73 based on a stock price of $114.75. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.44. The current ratio is 2.58 based on a stock price of $114.75, Book Value of $41,492M, and Book Value per Share of $44.51. The current ratio is 53% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, these ratios are quite high for P/B Ratios.
<br ><br >
I also have an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2024 of $48.70. This implies a P/B Ratio of 2.36 with a stock price of $114.75 and Book Value of $45,393M. This ratio is 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.82. The current ratio is 18.54 based on a stock price of $114.75, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $6.19 and Cash Flow of $5,770M. The current ratio is 25% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.23%. The current dividend yield is 0.66% based on a stock price of $114.75 and dividends of $0.76. The current dividend yield is 46% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.89%. The current dividend yield is 0.66% based on a stock price of $114.75 and dividends of $0.76. The current dividend yield is 26% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.72. the current P/S Ratio is 7.29 based on a stock price of $114.75, Revenue estimate for 2024 of $14,666M and Revenue per Share of $15.73. The current ratio is 28% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio testing. The other tests are a mixed bag from Cheap to Expensive. In is interesting that the Price/Graham Price Ratio test says the stock price is reasonable, but the Book Values are quite high.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (13), Buy (8), Hold (11) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $116.30 with a high of $127.00 and low of $95.00. The consensus price of $116.30 implies a total return of 2.01% with 1.35% from capital gains and 0.66% from dividends. The consensus 12 month stock price and lots of Strong Buys do not really go together?
<br ><br >
Some analysts like this stock on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/308/CP-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a>, some do not and some like CNR better. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense List and the Dividend Aristocrats List. Aditya Raghunath on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/05/is-canadian-pacific-kansas-city-stock-a-buy/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says that price might be high, but the company is expected to grow strongly over the next 5 years. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/02/02/business-earnings-could-double-this-year-time-to-buy-cp-stock/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this is a great investment choice. The company put out a <a href="https://investor.cpr.ca/news/press-release-details/2024/CPKC-delivers-strong-fourth-quarter-results-carrying-momentum-into-2024/default.aspx" target="_top">Press Release</a> about their fourth quarter of 2023.
<br ><br >
There is a report by <a href="https://simplywall.st/stocks/ca/transportation/tsx-cp/canadian-pacific-railway-shares/news/what-is-canadian-pacific-railway-limiteds-tsecp-share-price" target="_top">Simply Wall Street</a> on this stock. Simply Wall Street shows two risks of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; and large one-off items impacting financial results. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5.
<br ><br >
Canadian Pacific Kansas City is a Class-1 railroad operating on track that spans across most of Canada and into parts of the Midwestern and Northeastern United States and down through Texas, the Gulf of Mexico, and into Mexico. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.cpkcr.com/en" target="_top"> Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/agf-management-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Cogeco Communications Inc (TSX-CCA, OTC- CGEAF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/cogeco-communications-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Friday, February 9, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy February 2024 .... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/02/something-to-buy-february-2024.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Thursday, February 8, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-10097511478868301962024-02-05T17:59:00.006-05:002024-02-05T17:59:31.341-05:00AGF Management Ltd Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good currently. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth reviving. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/agf.htm" target="_top"> AGF Management Ltd </a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock is not well followed current and this is not a good sign. However, it has done better recently that it has for a while. Personally, I am not interested in this stock, but some people think it might be worth a look at. The stock price seems to be currently reasonable.
<br ><br >
I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), but I used to. I bought it in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it has been doing better of late. Dividends were cut in 2015 and 2016 and then were flat until 2021 when they were again raised. However, dividends are still some 60% below what they were. As you can see from the following calculations of holding this stock for 10, 30 and 25 years, investors have, because of dividends, not lost or not lost much. You often find this with dividend stocks. Also, notice that their return is good for the last 5 years at 16.01% per year. See chart below on total return.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,008.52 you would have bought 76 shares at $13.27 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $330.60 in dividends. The stock would be worth $585.96. Your total return would have been $916.56. This total return would be a total loss of 1.16% per year with 5.29% from capital loss and 4.12% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$13.27</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,008.52</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">76</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$330.60</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$585.96</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$916.56</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Interestingly, if you had invested in this company in December 1993, for $1,002.33 you would have bought 301 shares at $3.33 per share. In December 2023, after 30 years you would have received $4,397.61 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,320.71. Your total return would have been $6,718.32. This Total Return would be a total gain of 10.68% per year with 2.84% from capital gain and 7.84% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3.33</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,002.33</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">301</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$4,397.61</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$2,320.71</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$6,718.32</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br>
But, if you had invested in this company in December 1998, for $1,009.20 you would have bought 87 shares at $11.60 per share. In December 2023, after 25 years you would have received $1,225.83 in dividends. The stock would be worth $670.77. Your total return would have been $1,896.60. This Total Return would be a total gain of 3.93% per year with 1.62% from a capital loss and 5.55% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$11.60</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,009.20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">87</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,225.83</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$670.77</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,896.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth reviving. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.77%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good at 5.56% and 5.86%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 4.71%. The dividends have been increasing lately and they are up by 6.1% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 10%.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good currently. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 25% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 42%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) according to the company is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 45%.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">31.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">24.95%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">28.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF MS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">31.21%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">41.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF Comp</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32.61%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">45.21%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.01. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a bit low at 1.39. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.09. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 4.29. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.30 and 0.30.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.30</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.09%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.01%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.85%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-8.80%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.16%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-5.29%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-5.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.85%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.38%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.02%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.62%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.55%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.24%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.68%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.84%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1990</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.72%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.36%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.89, 7.04 and 7.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.44, 8.73 and 10.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.17, 13.43 and 17.22. The current P/E Ratio is 6.07 based on EPS for 2024 of $1.25 and a stock price of $7.59. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.59, 7.31 and 8.38. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.65, 9.63 and 13.00. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 6.07 based on AEPS for 2024 of $1.25 and a stock price of $7.59. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $21.82. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.35, 0.45 and .056. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.35 based on a stock price of $7.59. This ratio is at the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.47. The current P/B Ratio is 0.45 based on a stock price of $7.59, Book Value of $1089M and Book Value per share of $16.93. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I also have a Book Value per Share value for 2024 of $17.80. This implies a ratio of 0.43 and Book Value of $1,145M with a stock price of $7.59. This ratio is 9.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.00. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.25 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $0.92 and Cash Flow of $59M and a stock price of $7.59. This ratio is 3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.71%. The current dividend yield is 5.80% based on dividends of $0.44 and a stock price of $7.59. The current yield is 23% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.86%. The current dividend yield is 5.80% based on dividends of $0.44 and a stock price of $7.59. The current yield is 1% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but below the median.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.07. The current P/S Ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price $7.59 and Revenue estimate for 2024 of $479M and Revenue per Share of $7.44. The current ratio is 4.7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The 10 year dividend yield test says it is reasonable but above the median (1%) and the P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable and below the median. The rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is either cheap or reasonable.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $9.07 with a high of $10.00 and low of $7.50. This implies a total return of 25.30% with 19.50% from capital gains and 5.80% from dividends.
<br ><br >
Analysts on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/39/AGFB-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> do not particularly like this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is currently not on any dividend list I am following. Adam Othman on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2021/08/19/value-investors-3-stocks-are-a-screaming-buy-right-now/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says this stock is undervalued and might worth considering, but this was in 2021. There is nothing in Motley Fool later than 2021. The company put out a <a href="https://www.agf.com/corporate/news-insights/press-releases/pr/2024-01-24-agf-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2023-financial-results.jsp" target="_top">Press Release</a> on their fourth quarter of 2023.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/pleasing-signs-number-insiders-buy-115708517.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> talks about insider buying at this company. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street lists 2 warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.4% per year for the next 3 years; and unstable dividend track record.
<br ><br >
AGF Management is a Canada-based asset manager with operations and investments in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Asia. AGF Management has a more meaningful portion of its business tied to institutional clients than its peers, with one fourth of its total AUM derived from institutional and subadvised accounts. The company derives 17% of its managed assets from high-net-worth clients. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.agf.com/corporate/index.jsp" target="_top"> AGF Management Ltd </a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/richelieu-hardware-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/canadian-pacific-kansas-city-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Wednesday, February 7, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks February 2024 .... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/02/dividend-stocks-february-2024.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Tuesday, February 6, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-81995679486455577402024-02-02T10:20:00.007-05:002024-02-02T10:23:04.498-05:00Richelieu Hardware LtdSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and may even be cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/rch.htm" target="_top"> Richelieu Hardware Ltd</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The company has only put out a press release for 2023. They used to put out unaudited financial statements with the fourth quarter results, but this year, the financial statements were very limited. Analysts are complaining that the did not come close to the expected EPS of $2.71 as EPS came in at $1.98. I still think it is a good company and I will retain what shares I have. I might buy some for by TFSA account, but have not come up with all the money yet for 2024 deposit. The price is certainly reasonable at present and maybe cheap as the dividend yield tests are saying the stock price is cheap.
<br ><br >
I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommended by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2000, they are a rather small company and they did not increase dividends in 2009. This stock would be considered to be a dividend paying growth stock. In 2009, I thought I would add to what I had in this stock. This stock has been much recommended by MPL Communications.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done well with this stock. I have had it for just over 14 years and my total return per year is 16.88%, with 15.31% from capital gains and 1.57% from dividends.
<br ><br >
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. This stock has been growing quite well over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts seem to expect lower growth in the future, but I do not know how reliable the future values are. There are few analysts following this stock and I was looking at a number of sites trying to pick up information.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Gwth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Per Year</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Gwth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Coverage</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">78.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.22%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.40%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">69.23%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.10%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.52%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">64.36%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.54%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">540.38%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">44.97%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">150.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.11%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">68.63%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.02%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.58%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">204.68%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.53%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">167.57%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.34%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.52%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">140.07%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.52%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">459.70%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">246.15%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.22%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">188.72%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.19%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.58%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,007.86 you would have bought 69 shares at $14.61 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $205.17 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,310.62. Your total return would have been $3,515.79. This Total Return would be a total return of 13.74% per year with 12.63% from capital gain and 1.12% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$14.61</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,007.86</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">69</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$205.17</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,310.62</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,515.79</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.36%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.10%, 0.91% and 1.12%. The dividend growth is good (15% and higher) at 20% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 15.4%. Usually, the company increases the dividend for the first dividend of year, but in 2024, they did not do that.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 30% with 5 year coverage at 19%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 22%.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30.30%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.59%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.28%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">22.34%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 3.62. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 3.23. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.45 and 0.45.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.62</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.61</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.45</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.11%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.34%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.16%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.22%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.75%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.63%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.20%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.55%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.09%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.46%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.20%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.68%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.65%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.24%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.32%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.77%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.55%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.18%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.02%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.15%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.99, 19.45 and 21.81. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.49, 20.34 and 23.75. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.10, 15.75 and 19.20. The current P/E Ratio is 21.89 based on a stock price of $43.99 and EPS estimate for 2024 of 2.01. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $27.01. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.35, 1.64 and 1.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.63 based on a stock price of $43.99. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.22. The current P/B Ratio is 2.73 based on a stock price of $43.99 and Book Value of $904.9M and Book Value per Share of $16.13. The current ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 21.08. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.11 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $270.7M, Cash Flow per Share of $4.83 and a stock price of $43.99. The current ratio is 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.12%. The current dividend yield is 1.36% based on a stock price of $43.99 and dividends of $0.60. The current dividend yield is 22% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.91%. The current dividend yield is 1.36% based on a stock price of $43.99 and dividends of $0.60. The current dividend yield is 51% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.52. The current P/S Ratio is 1.35 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $1,833, Revenue per Share of $32.68 and a stock price of $43.99. The current ratio is 11% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and may even be cheap. The dividend yield tests both say that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable and below the median. The rest of the testing says the stock price is either reasonable or cheap.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find recommendations of Hold (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $45.75 with a high of $46.00 and low of $45.50. The stock price consensus of $45.75 implies a total return of 5.41% with 4.05% from capital gains and 1.36% from dividends.
<br ><br >
Analysts in 2024 give this stock on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/5069/RCH-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> a Top Pick and a Hold. Stock Chase gave this stock 4 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/23/1-under-the-radar-growth-stock-to-buy-and-hold/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this under the radar stock is a good buy. Jitendra Parashar on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/06/06/tsx-today-what-to-watch-for-in-stocks-on-tuesday-june-6/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> last year talked about this company being downgraded by CIBC. The company put out a press release on <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/richelieu-recorded-solid-results-for-the-fourth-quarter-of-2023-883138450.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their year-end 2023 results.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-richelieu-hardwares-tse-rch-103730301.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> talks about this stock and its dividends. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5. They list one warning of Profit margins (6.2%) are lower than last year (9.3%).
<br ><br >
Richelieu Hardware Ltd is a Canada-based company that imports, manufactures, and distributes specialty hardware and complementary products. Headquartered in Montreal, the company operates across Canada and the eastern and midwestern regions of the United States. The majority of the company's sales are derived from its operations in Canada. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.richelieu.com/ca/en/" target="_top"> Richelieu Hardware Ltd</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/01/canadian-national-railway.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/agf-management-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Monday, February 5, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-75732662576990657872024-01-31T17:45:00.007-05:002024-02-02T10:24:42.040-05:00Canadian National RailwaySound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cnr.htm" target="_top"> Canadian National Railway</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do like the idea of being invested in one of our railway companies and I happen to pick CNR. I think that the stock price on this company is currently in the reasonable range.
<br ><br >
The analysts’ recommendations are all over the place with most being at Hold. It probably comes down to how a person determines if the price is high or low or reasonable. Most people look at P/E Ratio but this is not my favourite method. My favourite is the 10 year median dividend yield test. I also like this test confirmed somewhat by the P/S Ratio test. You might want to check and make sure a company can afford their dividends when you use the dividend yield test. This company can afford its dividends.
<br ><br >
I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for just over 18 years and to the end of 2023, I have a total return per year of 15.25% with 13.09% from capital gains and 2.16% from dividends.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,029.52 you would have bought 17 shares at $60.56 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $343.74 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,831.55. Your total return would have been $3,175.09. This Total Return would be a total return of 12.64% per year with 10.65% from capital gain and 2.00% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$60.56</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,029.52</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$343.74</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$2,831.35</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,175.09</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.03%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.89%, 1.80% and 1.67%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 11.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was a 7% increase.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 37% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 43% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 90% with 5 year coverage fine at 57%. But there no agreement on FCF.
<br ><br >
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.tg .tg-rgd5{border-color:inherit;color:#cb4cba;font-style:italic;text-align:right;vertical-align:top}
</style>
<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">37.05%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">38.59%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">43.41%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">41.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30.74%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">27.78%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">90.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">57.44%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.15. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is too low at 0.61. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.59. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.62. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are fine at 2.62 and 0.62.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.61</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.62</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.62</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.62</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.67%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.58%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.50%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.64%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.65%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.09%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.71%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.65%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.82%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.43%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.36%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.07%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.38%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.74%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.74%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1996</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">27</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.36%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">16.41%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.32%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.00%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.26, 20.97 and 23.26. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.51, $18.43 and 21.00. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.25, 14.67 and 17.16. The current ratio is 20.84 based on a stock price of $166.65 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $8.00. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.62, 21.46 and 23.19. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.50, 19.83 and 22.28. The current ratio is 20.78 based on stock price of $166.65 and AEPS for 2024 of $8.02. This ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. Note: The AEPS is thought to be a better measure than the EPS.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $75.15. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.69, 1.97 and 2.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.22 based on a stock price of $166.65. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.40. The current P/B Ratio is 5.32 based on a Book Value of $20,117M, Book Value per Share of $31.30 and a stock price of $166.65. The current ratio is 21% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
<br ><br >
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $29.30. This implies a P/B Ratio of 5.69 and Book Value of $18,831M with a stock price of $166.65. The ratio is 29% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. These ratios are high when a normal ratio is considered to be around 1.50.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.44. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.12 based on a stock price of $166.65, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $11.80 and a Cash Flow of $7,584M. The current ratio is 5.1% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.67%. The current dividend yield is 2.03% based on dividends of $3.38 and a stock price of $166.65. The current dividend yield is 21% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.80%. The current dividend yield is 2.03% based on dividends of $3.38 and a stock price of $166.65. The current dividend yield is 13% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.81. The current P/S Ratio 6.04 based on a Revenue estimate for 2024 of $17,733M, Revenue per Share of $27.59 and a stock price of $166.65. The current ratio is 4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests say cheap to reasonable, with the 10 year dividend yield test at reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test says the stock price is reasonable but above the median (but not by much). The rest of the tests vary from cheap to expensive.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (4), Hold (23) and Underperform (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $174.90 with a high of $210.00 and low of $155.00. The consensus price of $174.90 implies a total return of 6.98% with 4.95% from capital gains and 2.03% from dividends.
<br ><br >
Some Analysts like this stock on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/287/CNR-T" target="_top"> Stock Chase </a> and others do not. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Joey Frenette on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/24/where-will-cnr-stock-be-in-5-years-2/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this is a buy and hold for a lifetime type stock. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/23/tfsa-5-canadian-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever-2/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this stock if good for the TFSA and buy and hold forever. The company put out a <a href="https://www.cn.ca/en/news/2024/01/cn-announces-fourth-quarter-and-year-end-results" target="_top">Press Release</a> on their fourth quarter results.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-national-railways-tse-cnr-133134001.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> reviews this stock and think it is an attractive income stock. They have one warning of has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.
<br ><br >
Canadian National's railway spans Canada from coast to coast and extends through Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.cn.ca/en/" target="_top"> Canadian National Railway</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Quebecor Inc (TSX- QBR.B, OTC- QBCRF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/01/quebecor-inc.html " target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/02/richelieu-hardware-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Friday, February 2, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Best Blue Chip Canadian Stocks.... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/02/best-blue-chip-canadian-stocks.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Thursday, February 1, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-64205797746965680542024-01-29T15:46:00.006-05:002024-01-31T17:35:50.818-05:00Quebecor IncSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but be cautious. Debt Ratios are a concern. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth currently moderate. This is a new stock for me to cover. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/qbr.htm" target="_top"> Quebecor Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company has some quite high ratios. For example, the P/B Ratio is 4.55 when a good one is around 1.50. The P/GP Ratios are also high with a median of 2.33 when a ratio over 1.20 is considered high. This is why I would be cautious about this company. It is testing a relatively reasonable, but above the median.
<br ><br >
I do not own this stock of Quebecor Inc (TSX-QBR.B, OTC-QBCRF). I thought I should cover another Telcom Stock, so I choice Quebecor. Since I need another stock currently to review, I am reviewing this one with a year end of 2022 and covering 2022 and the third quarter of 2023.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed few of the board members or executives have shares in the company. The company lists Pierre Karl Peladeau as the CEO, but on the INK Research report, it says he ceased to be an insider in October 30, 2015?
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,005.68 you would have bought 104 shares at $9.67 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $431.96 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,140.80. Your total return would have been $3,572.76. This would be a total return of 13.94% per year with 12.06% from capital gain and 1.86% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$9.67</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,005.68</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">104</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$431.96</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,140.80</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$3,572.76</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth currently moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.81%. The 5 year median dividend yield is moderate at 2.61%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 0.61% and 0.73%. The dividend yields were very low, then in 2015 the company started to ram up the dividends, so yields are currently much higher. The dividend increases have been very high lately, with the dividends up 62% per year over the past 5 years. However, the last increase was 9.1% which is a moderate range (8% to 14% ranges).
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 47% with 5 year coverage too high at 669%, but the DPR for AEPS is more important. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 45% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 21% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 29% with 5 year coverage at 43%.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">47.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">669.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">45.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.78%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">28.96%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">43.63%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are a concern. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is fine at 0.78 and currently at 0.96, which is rather high. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is very low at 0.71 and 0.81currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still too low at 1.10 and 1.38. I prefer them at 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is too low at 1.16 and 1.16 currently. I prefer this ratio to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are far too high at 7.83 and 6.74 and currently at 7.58 and 6.51. I prefer these ratios to be below 3.00 and 2.00.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.78</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.72</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.71</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.16</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.83</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.58</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.74</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.51</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2017</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">62.62%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.84%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.77%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2012</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">37.41%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.07%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2007</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">23.60%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.70%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2002</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">21.48%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.58%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1997</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.56%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.46%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.41%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1992</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.30%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.83%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.84%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.99%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1990</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.23%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.02%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.55, 13.07 and 14.59. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.76, 13.48 and 15.19. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.23, 12.25 and 13.27. The current P/E Ratio is 11.84 based on a stock price of $33.03 and EPS estimate of $2.97. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.70, 13.24 and 14.78. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.40, 13.61 and 13.08. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 11.12 based on a stock price of $33.03 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $2.97. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $22.01. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.91, 2.23 and 2.48. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.50 based on a stock price of $33.03. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 7.12. The current ratio is 4.55 based on a stock price of $33.03, Book Value of $1,675M, and Book Value per Share of $7.25. The current ratio is 36% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. But note how high the P/B Ratio is at 4.55. In theory the breakup value of this company is $7.25 per share, but the stock price is $33.03. This is not particularly good.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.64. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.25 based on Cash Flow for the past 12 months of $1,452M, Cash Flow per Share of $6.29 and a stock price of $33.03. The current ratio is 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.73%. The current dividend yield is 3.63% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $33.03. The current dividend yield is 398% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, it was the company’s radically increase the dividends in the pass little while. You have to therefore wonder how good this test is.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.61%. The current dividend yield is 3.63% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $33.03. The current dividend yield is 495% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, it was the company’s radically increase the dividends in the pass little while. You have to therefore wonder how good this test is also.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.35. The current P/S Ratio is 1.39 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $5,409M, Revenue per Share of $23.42 and a stock price of $33.03. The current ratio is 4.6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but be cautious. The dividend yield tests say the stock price is cheap. The P/S Ratio testing saying it is reasonable and above the median does not confirm the dividend yield tests and for a good reason. Dividends have skyrocket recently. The Price/Graham Price Ratio test is saying the stock price is cheap, but the ratios are very high. Generally speaking, a high P/GP Ratio is anything over 1.20 and the median P/GP Ratio is 2.23. I do not like the very high Price/Book Value Ratios also.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5) and Buy (10). The Consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $39.52 with a low of $35.00 and a high of $46.00. The consensus price of $39.52 implies a total return of 23.28% with 19.65% from capital gains and 3.63% from dividends.
<br ><br >
The latest recommendations on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/1006/QBRB-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> is a buy. There were also lots of buy recommendations for last year. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Joey Frenette on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/17/tfsa-investors-2-high-yielders-to-buy-and-hold-for-decades/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says to buy for income and growth. Christopher Liew on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/12/06/2-top-telecommunication-stocks-to-buy-on-the-tsx-today-3/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this company is a top performing Telcom. The company put out a <a href="https://www.quebecor.com/en/-/qu-c3-a9becor-inc.-annonce-ses-r-c3-a9sultats-consolid-c3-a9s-pour-l-exercice-2022-et-le-quatri-c3-a8me-trimestre-2022" target="_top">Press Release</a> on their 2022 year end results. The company put out a <a href="https://www.quebecor.com/en/-/qu-c3-a9becor-inc.-annonce-ses-r-c3-a9sultats-consolid-c3-a9s-pour-le-troisi-c3-a8me-trimestre-2023" target="_top">Press Release</a> on their third quarter of 2023.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/returns-quebecor-tse-qbr-arent-144357589.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> reviews this stock and thinks it is a buy. They have one risk of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.
<br ><br >
Quebecor primarily provides telecom services in Quebec, where it has internet subscribers’ and mobile subscribers. With the acquisition of Freedom Mobile in April 2023, Quebecor got mobile subscribers in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta. Quebecor also offers a French-language subscription video on demand service and has a media segment that owns and operates television stations, publishes newspapers and magazines, and produces and distributes films and television shows. A very small portion of Quebecor's business engages in live event production and promotion and has ownership of live-event venues. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.quebecor.com/en/" target="_top">Quebecor Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/01/exco-technologies-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/01/canadian-national-railway.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Wednesday, January 31, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about BMO and Metro .... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/01/bmo-and-metro.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Tuesday, January 30, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-57942399358655292412024-01-26T15:55:00.006-05:002024-01-26T15:55:48.185-05:00Exco Technologies LtdSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/xtc.htm" target="_top"> Exco Technologies Ltd</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? For 2023 Revenue is up 26% and it is expected to go up again in 2024 by 8.8%. Net Income for 2023 was up 39% and is expected to go up 30% in 2024. EPS was up 39% in 2023 and is expected to go up 28% in 2024. So, it would appear that the company is recovering. The stock price is testing as cheap.
<br ><br >
I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that there has not been much in the way of growth over the past 5 year. In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. This shows growth over the past 5 years is lower than over the past 10 years for most items. It also shows better growth is expected over the next year. Cash Flow growth is weak.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Growth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Per Year</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Gwth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Coverage</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.60%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.48%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.68%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-32.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-7.42%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.76%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-37.82%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-9.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.96%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19.12%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.56%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25.37%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.63%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-21.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.62%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.14%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">153.18%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.73%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.83%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.48%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.09%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">27.94%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.22%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.07%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30.06%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">154.19%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.78%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-20.06%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">143.48%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15.30%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.43%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.14%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,008.00 you would have bought 120 shares at $8.40 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $396.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $945.60. Your total return would have been $1,341.60. This is a total return would be a total return of 3.32% per year with 0.64% from capital loss and 3.95% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$8.40</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,008.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">120</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$396.00</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$945.60</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,341.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.59%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.57%, 3.79% and 2.97%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 4.6% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 5%.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 62% with 5 year coverage at 56%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is fine at 62% with 5 year coverage at 54%. This DPR is expected to improve over the next 2 years. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 23% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 85% with 5 year coverage at 101%. Problem again with FCF, sites do not agree and none agree with the company.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">61.76%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">56.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">61.76%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">53.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">23.27%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">26.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">85.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">101.35%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.36. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.48 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.54. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.65 and 0.65.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.87</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.65</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.63%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.88%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.69%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.57%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.31%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.32%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-0.64%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.96%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">21.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.82%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.23%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.76%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.35%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.70%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.65%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.80%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.79%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1990</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">33</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.73%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.06%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.67%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.19, 11.64 and 13.09. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.79, 12.40 and 14.38. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.06, 12.49 and 15.68. The current P/E Ratio is 8.63 based on a stock price of $7.51 and EPS for 2024 of $0.87. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.91, 10.83 and 12.75. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.94, 11.24 and 12.92. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 8.63 based on AEPS fir 2024 of $0.87 and a stock price of $7.51. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Note that the AEPS do not always vary from the EPS. AEPS and EPS have been the same less often than they have been different.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $13.66. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.78 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.55 based on a stock price of $7.51. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 0.79 based on a stock price of $7.51, Book Value of $371M and Book Value per Share of $9.53. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.82. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.28 based on Cash Flow estimate for 2024 of $46.5M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.19 and a stock price of $7.51. The current ratio is 19.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is very close to cheap.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.97%. The current dividend yield is 5.59% based on a stock price of $7.51 and dividends of $.42. The current dividend yield is 88% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.79%. The current dividend yield is 5.59% based on a stock price of $7.51 and dividends of $.42. The current dividend yield is 47% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.66. The current P/S Ratio is 0.43 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $674M, Revenue per Share of $17.32 and a stock price of $7.51. The current ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests are showing the stock price as relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio test is confirming the stock price as cheap. Most of the testing is showing the stock price as cheap.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find a Buy (1) recommendation only. Alpha Spread gives a 12 month stock price of $13.01, with high of $13.39 and low of $12.88. Market Screener has a 12 month stock price consensus of $12.75 with high and low at the same price as there is only one target price. Yahoo Finance has Buy (2) recommendations with one target price of $12.75.
<br ><br >
Let’s go with the Alpha Spread’s target price of $13.01 and that implies a total return of $78.83 with 73.24% from capital gains and 5.59% from dividends. If we go with the other target of $12.75, this implies a total return of $75.37% with 69.77% from capital gains and 5.59% from dividends.
<br ><br >
There are not recent recommendations on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/4671/XTC-T" target="_top"> Stock Chase </a>. In past reports, analysts like this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. It is not on my dividend lists. Aditya Raghunath on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/07/25/the-2-best-value-stocks-to-buy-right-now/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks you should buy this stock as it is selling at a discount. Christopher Liew on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/06/29/stocks-that-could-catapult-your-tfsa-savings-to-the-next-level/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks you should buy this stock for long term gains. The company put out a <a href="https://www.excocorp.com/2023/11/29/exco-results-for-fourth-quarter-ended-september-30-2023/" target="_top">Press Release</a> on their results for 2023 year end.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/exco-technologies-tse-xtc-announced-192922476.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> say they are not impressed with this stock. Simply Wall Street gives out two warnings of earnings have declined by 9.7% per year over past 5 years; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.
<br ><br >
Exco Technologies Ltd is a designer, developer, and manufacturer of dies, moulds, components and assemblies, and consumable equipment for the die-cast, extrusion, and automotive industries. The company reports in two business segments namely, the Casting and Extrusion segment and Automotive Solutions segment. It generates maximum revenue from the Automotive Solutions segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States and also has its presence in Canada, Europe, Asia, and other regions. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.excocorp.com/" target="_top"> Exco Technologies Ltd</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/01/enghouse-systems-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Quebecor Inc (TSX- QBR.B, OTC- QBCRF) ... <a href=" https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/01/quebecor-inc.html " target="_top" >learn more</a> on Monday, January 29, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-24227030304308037032024-01-24T16:55:00.006-05:002024-01-25T11:12:16.468-05:00Enghouse Systems LtdSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/engh.htm" target="_top"> Enghouse Systems Ltd</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The company has done well for its shareholders in the past. Growth has slowed down, but analysts expect some pickup this year. There is the problem with the ratios being high. See the next two paragraphs. The result of the testing is showing that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
The problem I see with stock is that the ratios are quite high. For example, the current P/E Ratio is 22.41 where 20.00 is considered on the high side. Another example is the P/GP Ratio where 1.00 is considered to be normal and a high ratio to be 1.20 and above and for this stock it is 1.92. The current ratios are below the median for this stock which can sometimes be justified for fast growing companies, and especially tech companies. The question is, does this company have the sort of growth to justify its high ratios? Generally speaking, Tech companies do have rather high ratios when compared to other sectors.
<br ><br >
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. This shows growth over the past 5 years is lower than over the past 10 years for most items. It also shows better growth is expected over the next year.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-0lax">Year</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Item</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Tot. Growth</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Per Year</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Gwth</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Coverage</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32.43%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.78%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.86%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">24.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.42%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.87%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">31.33%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.60%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.54%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.35%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.25%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">138.24%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.96%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.64%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-11.89%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-2.50%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.25%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-12 mths</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Revenue Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">152.39%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.70%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.04%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">184.78%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.03%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">26.72%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Net Income Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">196.74%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.49%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.65%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Cash Flow Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">256.33%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.55%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-0lax"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Dividend Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">458.62%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.77%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.64%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-0lax">Stock Price Growth</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">134.67%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.90%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">14.25%</td>
<td class="tg-0lax"><-this year</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
I do not own this stock of Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF). This stock has been recommended by Keystone Financial Publishing as a good Small Cap tech stock with dividend.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed analysts expected the EPS to drop 11%, but it dropped 23%. Now analysts expect the EPS to go up by 27% this year. The lower EPS is accounted for by the company providing a Provision for Income Taxes. This company has little debt and a strong Balance Sheet.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,003.45 you would have bought 61 shares at $16.45 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $352.58 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,141.10. Your total return would have been $2,493.68. This is a total return would be a total return of 10.07% per year with 7.87% from capital gain and 2.20% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$16.45</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,003.45</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">61</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$352.58</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$2,141.10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$2,493.68</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.37%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.13%, 1.03% and 1.25%. The dividend growth is good (15% and over) at 19% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 15.6%.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 62% with 5 year coverage at 58%. A problem is that the DPRs for EPS are going up, but analysts expect them to moderate over the next couple of years. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 32% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 39% with 5 year coverage at 43%.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-0lax">Item</th>
<th class="tg-0lax">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">61.83%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">57.96%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">31.86%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32.99%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">39.19%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">42.95%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Debt Ratios are good. The company has little and has had little long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.77. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 3.43. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.41 and 0.41.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">T. Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.77</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.43</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.41</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.96%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.73%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.12%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">18.77%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.07%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.87%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.40%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">23.86%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">3.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.91%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">11.40%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.51%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.85%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.58%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1995</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">28</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">13.18%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">12.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.10%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.33, 32.80 and 42.49. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.94, 32.82 and 41.38. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.72, 23.12 and 30.40. The current P/E Ratio is 22.41 based on a stock price or $37.20 and EPS estimate for 2024 of 1.66. The current ratio is below the 1ow ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $19.37. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.16, 2.69 and 3.41. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.92 based on a stock price of $37.20. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.17. The current P/B Ratio is 3.70 based on Book Value of $555M, Book Value per Share of $10.05 and a stock price of $37.50. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 21.37. The current P/CF Ratio is 17.83 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $115M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.09 and a stock price of $37.20. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.25%. The current dividend yield is 2.37% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $37.20. The current dividend yield is 89% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 103%. The current dividend yield is 2.37% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $37.20. The current dividend yield is 130% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.29. The current P/S Ratio is 4.23 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $486M, Revenue per Share of $8.80 and a stock price of $37.20. The current ratio is 20% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. The dividend yield tests point to the stock price being cheap. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the other tests are also showing the stock price as relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months stock price consensus is $39.33 with a high of $43.00 and low of $37.00. The consensus price of $39.33 implies a total return of 8.09% with 5.73% from capital gains and 2.37% from dividends.
<br ><br >
Analysts on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/447/ENGH-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> like this stock, but not everyone thinks it is a Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on the dividend lists that I follow. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/11/3-top-tech-stocks-that-could-make-you-a-millionaire/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> thinks this is a great stock to buy and hold and make money. Robin Brown on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2024/01/04/how-to-invest-your-7000-tfsa-contribution-in-2024/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> says this company should be bought for your TFSA. The company issued a press release on <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/enghouse-releases-fourth-quarter-and-year-end-results-825305212.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their fourth quarter of 2023.
<br ><br >
Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/enghouse-systems-tse-engh-returns-154901826.html" target="_top"> Yahoo Finance</a> reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. They list one risk of Significant insider selling over the past 3 months. (However, when I reviewed INK it appears that the CEO did sell some stock, but mostly the problem is that the insiders are not picking up stock options.)
<br ><br >
Enghouse Systems Ltd is a Canada-based provider of software and services to a variety of end markets. The firm's operations are organized in two segments namely, the Interactive Management Group and the Asset Management Group. It earns majority of its revenue from Interactive Management Group. The firm has operations in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, excluding Scandinavia, Germany, Asia-Pacific and other. Its web site is here <a href="https://www.enghouse.com/" target="_top"> Enghouse Systems Ltd</a>.
<br ><br >
The last stock I wrote about was about was Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/01/transcontinental-inc.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/01/exco-technologies-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Friday, January 26, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Desjardins Top Picks 2023.... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/01/desjardins-top-picks-2024.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Thursday, January 25, 2024 around 5 pm.
<br ><br >
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
<br ><br >
See my site for an index to these <a href="https://spbrunner.com/investblog.html" target="_top">blog entries</a> and for <a href="https://spbrunner.com/stocks.html" target="_top">stocks followed</a>. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investment Talk</a>. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.com/" target="_top">Investing Economics Mostly</a>. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called <a href="https://spbrunner2.blogspot.com/" target="_top"> Non-Fiction Mostly</a>. Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/spbrunner" target="_top">Twitter</a>. I am on <a href="https://www.instagram.com/spbrunner8166/?hl=en" target="_top">Instagram</a>. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.SPBrunnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10497905201043436744noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8338172466331766962.post-76899673944142975832024-01-22T16:17:00.001-05:002024-01-23T15:33:05.789-05:00Transcontinental IncSound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Some Debt Ratios are in need improving and others are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth non-existent, but they are expected in the future. See my spreadsheet on <a href="https://www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tcl.htm" target="_top"> Transcontinental Inc</a>.
<br ><br >
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It all depends on why you buy a stock. I bought this stock for its dividend and it pays a good dividend in the 5% to 6% range. I do currently like dividend growth stocks, but I invested in the past for various reasons. It is in my TFSA, which is my fooling around money. I see no reason to sell this at the present time. Although, I must admit that analysts keep thinking this stock will make a strong recovery and it does not. The stock price seems cheap.
<br ><br >
I own this stock of Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF). This is a dividend growth stock. It was on a number of dividend lists. However, it fell on hard times after 2008, but was recovering but then hit another low in 2019 and its recovery is uneven. It is was on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index when I bought it in 2015.
<br ><br >
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the stock price has been going down over the past two years. They also have not raised their dividends since 2020.
<br ><br >
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,008.78 you would have bought 69 shares at $14.62 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $558.90 in dividends. The stock would be worth $945.30. Your total return would have been $1,504.20. This is a total return would be a total return of 4.95% per year with 0.65% from capital loss and 5.60% from dividends.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot. Cost</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Shares</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Dividends</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Stock Val</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$14.62</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,008.78</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">69</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$558.90</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$945.30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">$1,504.20</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth non-existent, but they are expected in the future. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% range) at 6.54%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.98% and 4.22%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.97%.
<br ><br >
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 90.9% but better at 5 year coverage at 59%. It is expected to be 43% in 2024. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 44% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 19% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 26% with 5 year coverage at 32%.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Item</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cur</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">5 Years</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">EPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">90.91%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">59.30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">AEPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">44.33%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">38.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">CFPS</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">19.00%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">17.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">FCF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">26.44%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">32.82%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
Some Debt Ratios are in need improving and others are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is too high at 1.06 and better currently at 0.76. You want this under 1.00 and best under 0.50. The Intangible and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is goo high at 1.86 and currently at 1.33. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.09. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is fine at 1.68 and 1.68 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.94 and 0.94.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">Type</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Year End</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Ratio Curr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Lg Term R</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.06</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.76</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Intang/GW</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.86</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liquidity</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.09</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Liq. + CF</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.84</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.55</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Debt Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.06</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">Leverage</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.94</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.94</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">D/E Ratio</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.94</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.94</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
<br ><br >
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<table class="tg">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="tg-baqh">From</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Years</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div. Gth</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Tot Ret</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Cap Gain</th>
<th class="tg-baqh">Div.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2018</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.63%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-8.38%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-13.97%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2013</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.49%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.18%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-4.77%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2008</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">15</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">2.49%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.45%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-1.03%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">2003</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">20</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">9.75%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">0.35%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">-3.68%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1998</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">25</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">10.17%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">7.08%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.98%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">5.10%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1993</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">30</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.89%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">6.10%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">1.93%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="tg-0lax">1988</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">35</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6"></td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">8.94%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.52%</td>
<td class="tg-lqy6">4.42%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br >
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.05, 11.08 and 13.12. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.31, 9.73 and 11.66. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.26, 13.12 and 15.38. The current P/E Ratio is 6.65 based on a stock price of $13.77 and EPS estimate for 2024 of 2.07. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
<br ><br >
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.30, 7.11 and 8.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.29, 7.40 and 8.58. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 6.65 based on a stock price of $13.77 and AEPS of $2.07. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
<br ><br >
I get a Graham Price of $31.97. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.51, 0.65 and 0.77. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.43 based on a stock price of $13.77. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.19. The current P/B Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $13.77, Book Value of $1,901M, and Book Value per Share of $21.95. The current ratio is 47% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I also have a Book Value per Share estimate of $22.30 for 2024. This implies a ratio of 0.62 based on a stock price of $13.77 and Book Value of $1,931M. This ratio is 48% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.03. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.74 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $3.68, Cash Flow of $319M, and a stock price of $13.77. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.97%. The current dividend yield is 6.54% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $13.77. The current dividend yield is 232% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The company used to have very low dividend yields.
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I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.22%. The current dividend yield is 6.54% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $13.77. The current dividend yield is 55% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.63. The current P/S Ratio is 0.41 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $2,920M, Revenue per Share of $33.71 and a stock price of $13.77. The current ratio is 35% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
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Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The 10 year median dividend yield test says this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the rest of the testing is saying the same thing.
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When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $17.70, with a high of $21.50 and low of $14.00. The consensus stock price implies a total return of 35.08% with 28.54% from capital gains and 6.54% from dividends.
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Last year when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Buy (3) and Hold (3) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price of $21.50. This implies a total return of $47.08% with 41.17% from capital gains and 5.91% from dividends based on a current stock price of $15.23. What happened was a drop in price to $13.77 and a loss of 3.68% with a capital loss of 9.59% and dividends of 5.91%.
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The year before when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price was $26.50. This implied a total return of 37.14% with 32.63% from capital gains and 4.50% from dividends based on a stock price of $19.98. What happened was a drop in price to $15.23 and a loss of 19.27% with a capital loss of 23.77% and dividends of 4.50%. So, this is the third year in a row that analysts expected a strong price rise.
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All the analysts’ recommendations on <a href="https://stockchase.com/company/view/1206/TCLA-T" target="_top">Stock Chase</a> in 2023 are a sell. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on <a href="https://www.fool.ca/2023/12/18/beyond-the-big-banks-lesser-known-canadian-stocks-offering-attractive-yields-3/" target="_top">Motley Fool</a> likes this stock for its strong dividend. Christopher Liew on <a href=" https://www.fool.ca/2023/11/23/3-mistakes-keeping-you-from-your-first-million-in-canada/ " target="_top">Motley Fool</a> likes this stock because it is a strong dividend provider. The company put out a press release on <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/11/28/2787182/0/en/Transcontinental-Inc-Release-of-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2023-Results-and-Conference-Call.html" target="_top">Newswire</a> about their fourth quarter of 2023.
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Simply Wall Street via <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/past-five-years-transcontinental-tse-151916987.html" target="_top">Yahoo Finance</a> reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street lists 4 risks of large one-off items impacting financial results; profit margins (2.9%) are lower than last year (4.8%); dividend of 6.6% is not well covered by earnings; and has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.
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Transcontinental Inc is a Canadian printer and flexible packaging provider that operates in three segments: packaging, printing, and other. The smaller other segment focuses on the media sector, which generates revenue from print and digital publishing products. Its web site is here <a href="https://tctranscontinental.com/en-ca" target="_top"> Transcontinental Inc</a>.
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The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.ca/2024/01/canadian-imperial-bank-of-commerce.html" target="_top" >learn more</a>. The next stock I will write about will be Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... <a href="https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/2024/01/enghouse-systems-ltd.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Wednesday, January 24, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Evaluate a Stock.... <a href="https://spbrunner3.blogspot.ca/2024/01/evaluate-stock.html" target="_top" >learn more</a> on Tuesday, January 23, 2024 around 5 pm.
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This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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