Friday, January 31, 2014

Rogers Sugar Inc. 2

I do not own this stock of Rogers Sugar Inc. (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF). This stock was brought to my attention by Dividend Ninja. This company used to be a Unit Trust (TSX-RSI.UN) but it has converted to corporation.

When I look at the insider trading report, I find 0.135M of insider selling and $0.186M of insider buying for a small net of insider buying. There is some insider ownership, and the company of Belkin Enterprises Ltd. owns around 12% worth around $57M.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.62, 11.62 and 12.62. The current P/E Ratio is 13.76 based on 2014 earnings estimate of $0.37 and a stock price of $5.09. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.

I get a Graham Price of $4.75. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.70, 0.81 and 0.92. The current P/GP Ratio 1.07 based on a stock price of $5.09. This stock test also suggests that the stock price is high. On an absolute basis, a ratio of 1.07 says the price is a reasonable price.

The 10 year median Price/ Book Value per Share 1.50 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.88 based on a BVPS of $2.71 and a stock price of $5.09. This current P/B Ratio is some 25% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock test suggests that the stock price is high.

The only test that suggests otherwise is the Dividend Yield test. The 5 year median dividend yield is 6.2% and the current dividend yield is 7.1%, a value some 14.4% higher. This suggests that the stock price is reasonable. The current dividend yield would have to be 20% higher for the stock price test to suggest that the stock price is cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Hold and Sell recommendations. There are only 4 analysts that follow this stock. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $5.19. This implies a total return of 9.04% with 7.07% from dividends and 1.96% from capital gains.

This stock is currently been talked about at the Canadian Money Forum. There is an interesting comment on this stock in Seeking Alpha about the stock going up and down and lot and best to buy when it is down. This entry is dated in 2012, but it still seems to apply. Stock was $9.10 (almost 80% higher than today) in December 1997. It has gone up and down since but it has not really gone anywhere. However, investors have made money in dividends.

The only test to suggest that the stock might be at a reasonable price is the 5 year dividend yield test. All other tests say it is expensive. Especially worrying is the P/B Ratio test. This shows stock is expensive because the Book Value has declined so much over the years. See my spreadsheet at rsi.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, January 30, 2014 and is available here.

Rogers Sugar Inc was established to hold all of the common shares and notes of Lantic Inc. Lantic Inc. is a refiner, processor, distributor and marketer of sugar products in Canada. Its web site is here Rogers Sugar.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Rogers Sugar Inc.

I do not own this stock of Rogers Sugar Inc. (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF). This stock was brought to my attention by Dividend Ninja. This company used to be a Unit Trust (TSX-RSI.UN) but it has recently converted to corporation.

This is not a dividend growth company. The company started out declaring just what they thought they could afford to pay, which meant that they changed each year, sometimes up and sometimes down. The dividends did rise while it was an income trust, but it was an income trust only from 2007 to 2011 when it converted to a corporation. At that time dividends were decreased.

Since then there was one dividend increase of 5.9% in 2012. There were no dividend increases in 2013. Analysts do not expect any dividend increases over the next two years and I would agree that this would be unlikely.

Looking at the longer term, dividends have decreased by 4.6% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. When I record dividends, I look at what was actually paid within the financial year, not what was declared in the financial year. So there appears to be more ups and downs in the dividends than actually occurred in years when the company transitions from quarterly to monthly and then back to quarterly dividends.

The company's earnings has basically been going south since 2008 so they are paying a high portion of their earnings. The 5 year Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings is 96%. For 2014 it is expected to be 97%. The 5 year median DPR for CF is better at 40%. However, it has been rising lately and is expected to be 74% for 2014. With these DPRs I would not expect any increases in dividends in the near future.

The dividend yield is still quite good. It is currently at 7% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 6.2%. Since the company changed to a corporation the dividend yields have declined. The historical median dividend yield is just over 10%. It was expected that dividend yields would decline on old income trust stocks to a 4% to 5% range. This stock is still outside this range.

The decline in dividend yield leads into the fact that the total return has been good. As the yields have declined, the stock price has gone up. Although in this case, yields have also declined by a dividend cut. The 5 and 10 years total return on this stock is at 16.54% and 14.29% per year. The capital gain portion of this return is at 7.24% and 4.12% per year over these periods. The dividend portion of this return is at 9.29% and 10.17% per year over these periods.

There has been very small increase in outstanding shares over the past 5 and 10 years at 1.5% and 0.6% per year. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and conversion of Debentures to shares. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue is growing not badly, but both earnings and cash flow growth is not going well.

Revenue per Share is up by 4.4% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings per Share are down by 4.9% per year over the past 5 years and EPS is up by 6.9% per year over the past 10 years. EPS have declined over the past 5 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages over the past 5 years, EPS are up by 14% per year, but that is only because of a big loss in one year. The decline of 4.9% per year over the past 5 years is quite accurate.

The Cash Flow can vary year to year. If you look at the 5 year running averages over the past 5 years, the CFPS is down by 4.5% per year. Also, by the 5 year running averages over the past 10 years, CFPS is up by 3.6%.

The Return on Equity has been over 10% each year over the past 8 years. The ROE for 2013 is 14.6% and the 5 year median ROE is at 15.2%. The ROE on comprehensive income better than for net income and this is good. The ROE on comprehensive income is at 17.7% for 2013 and has a 5 year median of 15.9%.

The Liquidity Ratio is very good for 2013 at 1.87. However, this ratio does fluctuated a lot and the 5 year median is just 1.32. Not a bad figure, but I would prefer it at 1.50. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the 5 year median Liquidity Ratio is 1.47.

The Debt Ratio has always been good and it is currently at 1.85. The 5 year median Debt Ratio is 1.87. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 2.17 and 1.17 are higher than what I would like but are typical for this sort of stock.

It is good that they have growth in revenue, because without growth in revenue, it is hard to growth earnings and cash flow. However, they do not seem to be able to translate revenue growth into earnings and cash flow growth. You can also see that reflected in to Operational Profit Margin (CF/Revenue) Ratio. This ratio has declined from 12.97 in 2009 to 6.09 in 2013. This ratio is going the wrong way. You want this ratio to be increasing or stable. You do not want to see it decreasing.

This would not be a favorite stock for me. I know that the dividend yield is quite high, but I rather buy dividend grow stocks. Also, it does not seem to be able to translate revenue growth into earnings and cash flow growth. See my spreadsheet at rsi.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, January 31, 2014 and will be available here.

Rogers Sugar Inc was established to hold all of the common shares and notes of Lantic Inc. Lantic Inc. is a refiner, processor, distributor and marketer of sugar products in Canada. Its web site is here Rogers Sugar.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Transcontinental Inc. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about Peter Rose's new art show...continue...

I do not own this stock of Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL.A), OTC-TCLAF). This used to be a dividend growth stock. It probably is still considered one on the dividend growth lists as it is still on a number of dividend lists. However, it has fallen on hard times. Although the company is trying to do more modern things, it is still in the print media business.

When I look at the insider trading report, I see $1.8M of insider selling and no insider buying. The company Class A shares that are Subordinate Voting Shares and Class B shares that are multiple voting shares. Remi Marcoux owns 88% of the class B shares and his shares are worth around $178.6M. Not only do insiders have options, but also 3 other types of options like vehicles. In 2013 outstanding shares increased by 121,000 with a book value of $1.5M.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.60, 6.42 and 7.88. These are very low P/E Ratios. These ratios have been low for the last 5 years. The current P/E Ratio is 7.01. On a relative basis the price is still reasonable, but higher than a median price.

However, there are problems in using the P/E Ratios on this stock. For starters, this is based on their "adjusted net income". The company started using an adjusted net income in 2005. At first the adjusted EPS just excluded unusual items. The definition has grown to exclude other things like the cost of restructuring. You got to wonder how valid this is. The market does not seem much impressed as is reflected in a very low P/E Ratio.

I get a current Graham Price of $20.10. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 0.96 and 1.13. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.68. This would appear to be a low ratio and therefore suggests the stock is cheap.

However, since this calculation includes the estimated EPS for 2014 of $1.95, I just wonder how good this test is also. This is because analysts often buy into such things as adjusted EPS you have to wonder about the estimates for this year. For the last two years of actual earnings losses, the EPS estimates appeared to be for the adjusted EPS not any actual EPS.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share 1.32 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.49 a values some 12% higher. So this stock test shows that the stock is on the pricey side as the current ratio is 12% higher than the median. However, it is not that much higher, so the stock price, although a bit high is still in a reasonable range.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.62% and the current dividend yield at 4.24% is higher by around 17%. This stock test shows that the stock is approaching cheap.

If you look at other stock tests such as the Price/Sales Ratios, the 10 year P/S Ratio 0.53 and the current one is lower the 6% at 0.50. This stock test says that the stock price is reasonable. The current P/S Ratio is based on a stock price of $13.67 and 2014 Revenue estimate of $2121M.

If you look at the 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio, it is 4.84. The current P/CF Ratio is 20% lower at 3.86. This stock test says that the stock price is cheap. The current P/CF Ratio is based on a stock price of $13.67 and 2014 CFPS estimate of $3.54.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $15.00. This implies a total return of 14.01% with 4.28% from dividends and 9.73% from capital gains.

An article in CBC News talks about Transcontinental buying Sun Media's community papers. On TSI Network, Pat McKeough writes a favorable review of this stock. There was also a favorable report at Forbes on this stock.

After all my stock price testing, it would seem that the stock price is reasonable to cheap. However, I still think that people are taking a big risk in buying this stock and your reward would not compensate you for that risk. We still do not know all the effects that the internet via computers, smart phones and pads are going to have on print media. So far it has not been good. See my spreadsheet at tcl.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, January 28, 2014 and is available here.

Transcontinental, one of Canada's top media groups, is the largest printer in Canada and Mexico and the fourth-largest in North America. In addition to commercial printing, it operates 150 websites and is a leading publisher of consumer magazines, French-language educational resources and community newspapers in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Transcontinental Inc.

I do not own this stock of Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCLA), OTC-TCLAF). This used to be a dividend growth stock. It probably is still considered one on lists. It is still on a number of dividend lists. However, it has fallen on hard times. Although the company is trying to do more modern things, it is still in the print media business.

This company is still raising their dividends, but at the cost of higher Dividend Payout Ratios. The DPRs are still not high with 5 year median DPRs of 24.5% for EPS and 12.6% for CFPS. The DPRs for 2013 were 28.7% for EPS and 13.8% for CFPS. The DPRs before 2011 were around 18% for EPS and 8% for CFPS. They obviously decided to pay a higher ratio as in 2011 they increased the dividends 40% and that is when the DPRs moved higher.

The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is good at 13.4% and 15.3% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2012 and was for 7.4%. There was no dividend increase in 2013, but they did pay a special dividend almost twice the current annual dividend. The dividend yield is a good one as the 5 year median dividend yield is 3.6%.

This stock did well to the end of last year with total return of 13.21% per year over the past 5 years with 5.21% per year from dividends and 8% per year from capital gains. The total return to date is lower as the stock price has dropped recently with the market. The total return to date over the past 5 year is 6.40% per year with 5.26% per year from dividends and 1.13% per year from capital gains.

No matter what you look at, the stock has not done well over the past 10 years. The loss is similar to the end of 2013 and to date. The Total Loss to date is 2.4% per year, with dividends at 2.79% per year and capital loss at 5.20% per year.

Outstanding share have decreased by .7% and 1.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The outstanding shares have increased due to Stock Options and decreased due to Buy Backs. There have also been changes in the Class A and B shares as there have been conversions of Class B shares into Class A shares. Class A shares are Subordinate Voting Shares and Class B shares are multiple voting shares.

A problem is the lack of growth in revenues. Revenue per Share has declined by 2% and increased by 2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. When looking at 5 year running averages, nothing much changes as here Revenue per Share is flat over the past 5 years and has increased by 2% per year over the past 10 years.

Earnings per Share have not much to show as the last two years have had negative EPS. Even the 5 year running averages coming into 2013 is a negative figure. However, analysts feel that things will turn around in 2014 with EPS of 1.95.

The growth in Cash Flow per Share is low with the 5 and 10 year growth at 2.7% and 3.8% per year. Using the 5 year running averages tell the same basic story.

There is no Return on Equity because of negative net income. However, the comprehensive income turned positive in 2013 with an ROE of 6.7%. Not great, but it is positive.

The Liquidity Ratio has always been low and generally below 1.00. This means that the current assets cannot cover the current liability. They have depended on cash flow to cover the difference. This is not something I like to see in a retail stock. The current Liquidity Ratio is 0.98. If you include cash flow after dividends, then the ratio is 1.63. The 5 year median Liquidity Ratio is 1.00.

The Debt Ratio is better and is at 1.78 and it has a 5 year median value also of 1.78. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high but ok at 2.14 and 1.14 and is typical for what is considered an Industrial stock.

It seems like an ok dividend stock, but not one I would like to buy and tuck away in my portfolio for a long time. I think that if you buy this stock, you would want to keep an eye on it. I just wonder if you would get enough return for this about of monitoring. See my spreadsheet at tcl.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, January 29, 2014 and will be available here.

Transcontinental, one of Canada's top media groups, is the largest printer in Canada and Mexico and the fourth-largest in North America. In addition to commercial printing, it operates 150 websites and is a leading publisher of consumer magazines, French-language educational resources and community newspapers in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, January 27, 2014

National Bank of Canada 2

On my other blog I am today writing about Book Value...continue...

I do not own this stock of National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF). I thought I should follow one of the smaller Canadian Banks. This seems like a good choice.

When I look at insider trading, I find $14.9M of inside selling and net insider selling of $14.2M. There is insider buying of $0.7M. Not only do insiders have stock options but have three different types of Restricted Share Units. There are bits of insider ownership, but the only one with substantial insider ownership is the CEO with shares worth around 5.7M. Last year outstanding shares were increase by 1.765M shares with a book value of $107M because of stock options.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios were 8.23, 9.25 and 11.30. The current P/E Ratio is 10.11 based on a stock price of 9.60 based on a stock price of $85.11 and 2014 earnings estimate of $8.78. As with a lot of other stocks, the price for this bank has recently declined. Still this stock test suggests that although the price is reasonable is it on the high side. The P/E is above the median P/E ratio.

I get a Graham price of $95.13. The 10 year low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 0.80, 0.89 and 1.05. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.89. This suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share ratio is 1.92 and the current one is 1.86. The current P/B Ratio is about 97% of the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.08% and the current dividend yield is 4.32 a value some 6% higher. It is good that the dividend yield is above the 5 year median, but it is close, so this stock test says that the stock price is reasonable. However, the historical average dividend yield is 3.67% a value some 18% lower than the current dividend yield and by this stock test, the stock price is cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $94.10. This implies a total return of 14.89% with 10.56% from capital gains and 4.32% from dividends. This is quite a respectable return.

At North Fork Vue site they talk about RBC Capital beginning coverage of this stock with a sector perform (or Buy) rating. The blogger Dividend Engineering reviewed this stock in the middle of last year. It was rather hard to find items on this bank.

Looking at my stock tests, it would see that the current stock price is cheap to reasonable. See my spreadsheet at an.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, January 24, 2014 and is available here.

National Bank of Canada provides financial services to consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises, and large corporations & has branches in every province in Canada. It is also represented in the U.S. and Europe through its subsidiaries and alliances. It is also represented in the U.S. and Europe through its subsidiaries and alliances. Its web site is here National Bank.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, January 24, 2014

National Bank of Canada

I do not own this stock of National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF). I thought I should follow one of the smaller Canadian Banks. This seems like a good choice.

During 2008 this bank had a small dividend increase of 3.3%, then for 2009 and 2010 the dividend was flat. Dividends were raised a couple of times in 2011 with the total increase being at 14.5%. So this relatively smaller bank did very well during the 2008 crisis. The 5 and 10 dividend increase is at 6.2 and 12.1% per year.

The current dividend rate is 4.15%. At the last dividend increase was in 2014 and was for 5.7%. However, this bank often raises dividends more than once per year. Currently it looks like in the 2014 financial year dividends will be increased by 9.34%. At this rate, you could expect to be earning a dividend yield around 10% in 10 years' time and maybe 16% in 15 years' time.

The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios are 39% for earnings and 35% for cash flow. The DPR ratio looks to be about 41% for earnings. No one gives estimates for banks on cash flow, so I have no estimates for DPR for cash flow for 2014.

As far as total returns go, shareholders have done quite well over the past 5 and 10 years with total returns of 29.62% and 11.46% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The dividend portion of this return would be 6.55% and 4.02% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The capital gain portion of this return would be 23.08% and 7.44% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The outstanding shares have increased by less than 1% per year over the past 5 years and decreased by less than 1% over the past 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in earnings has been quite good and growth in cash flow was mostly good. There was lower growth in revenue.

Revenue per Share is up by 6.8% and 5.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings per Share growth is up by 13.5% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow is up by 13% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, for cash flow, if you look at 5 year running averages, the growth is lower at 9.9/% and 2.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash flow does fluctuate, but exactly 10 years ago the cash flow was lower in the previous years.

I have Return on Equity Ratios going back to 1994 and only 3 years had an ROE under 10% and in all years the ROE was over 9%. The ROE for the 2013 financial year was 17% with the 5 year median ROE at 14.5%. For the 2013 financial the ROE on comprehensive income was close to the ROE on net income with an ROE at 17.1%. The comprehensive income and net incomes have varied but over all they are close with a 5 year median ROE on comprehensive income at 14.3%.

The Debt Ratio is ok at 1.05 but this is lower than the other banks I have covered which have Debt Ratios of 1.06 to 1.08. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios have remained higher on this bank with ratios at 20.54 and 19.54. Other banks have lowered their ratios closer 16.00 and 15.00 and their ratios are lower than their 5 year median ratios. Whereas for this bank the 5 year ratios at 19.81 and 18.81 are lower than the current ratios.

This bank has done relatively well through the 2008 crisis and to today. However Debt Ratios are a bit higher than the other banks I have reviewed. See my spreadsheet at na.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, January 27, 2014 and will be available here.

National Bank of Canada provides financial services to consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises, and large corporations & has branches in every province in Canada. It is also represented in the U.S. and Europe through its subsidiaries and alliances. It is also represented in the U.S. and Europe through its subsidiaries and alliances. Its web site is here National Bank.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Enghouse Systems Ltd 2

I do not own this stock of Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ESL, OTC-EGHSF). This stock has been recommended by Keystone Financial Publishing as a good Small Cap tech stock with dividend.

When I look at insider trading, I find $10.6M of insider selling and net selling at $10.5M. There is a small amount of insider buying. Most of the insider selling was by the CEO at $7.2M. The rest of the insider selling was by the directors. In 2013 financial year outstanding shares were increased by 262,000 due to stock options being exercise. The book value was $2.8M and this number of shares was worth $7.3M at the end of the year.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.00, 20.06 and 22.03. The current P/E Ratio is 29.33 based on 2014 earnings of $1.08 and a stock price of $31.68. This stock test says that the current stock price is high.

I get a Graham Price of $13.05. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios is 1.10, 1.33 and 1.64. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.43. This stock test says that the current stock price is high.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share is 1.92 and the current P/B Ratio is 4.52. The current Ratio is some 1.35% higher than the 10 year median ratio and this stock price test says that the current stock price is high.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.87. The current dividend yield is 1.01% a value some 46% lower. This stock test also says that the current stock price is relatively high.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $34.60. This implies a total return of 10.23% with 1.01% from dividends and 9.22% from capital gains.

There is a positive mention of this stock at 5iResearch. On the site of IT Business, Candice So talks about how Enghouse is handling new acquisitions. Phillip Woolgar at Motley Fools talks about the fact that Enghouse always seems to have a lot of cash on hand. The Dividend Blogger talks about the fact that this stock is part of his True Canadian Dividend Achievers list.

To me I really like this company, but I think that the stock price is much too high to currently purchase it. Over paying for a stock is not good for your portfolio in the long term. It is not as if the analysts' 12 month stock price suggests that his stock will give an extraordinary return. It does not. See my spreadsheet at esl.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, January 22, 2014 and is available here.

Enghouse Systems Limited is a global provider of enterprise software solutions serving a variety of distinct vertical markets. Its strategy is to build a large diverse enterprise software company through strategic acquisitions and managed growth. Its web site is here Enghouse Systems.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Enghouse Systems Ltd

On my other blog I am today writing about Canadian Bank Stocks...continue...

I do not own this stock of Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ESL, OTC-EGHSF). This stock has been recommended by Keystone Financial Publishing as a good Small Cap tech stock with dividend.

This company started to dividends in 2008, which is just 5 years ago. The 5 year growth in dividends is 27.42%. The last dividend increase was in 2013 and it was for 23%. The current dividend yield is just 1.01%. The 5 year median dividend yield is much better, but still low at 1.87%. So this dividend growth company has the configuration of low yields and high increases for dividends.

The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios are good with the one for earnings at 31.5% and the one for cash flow at 16.6%. The DPR for 2013 were similar at 31.5% for EPS and 18.9% for cash flows. The DPRs are expected to be similar again in 2014.

Total return is also quite good with 5 and 10 year growth at 52.06% and 15.53% per year. The dividend portion of this growth is at 1.90 and 0.49% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The capital gain portion is at 50.16% and 15.05% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Outstanding shares have increased by less than 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. The growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow has all basically been quite good.

Revenue per Share has grown at 27% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages, it has grown at a lower rate of 17% and 15% per year. Earnings have grown at 32% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages the growth is a bit less at 15% and 7% per year.

The growth in cash flow is similar with the 5 and 10 year growth at 23% and 10% per year and the 5 year median growth at 13% and 10% per year. There has been good growth over the past 5 years, but exactly 5 years ago revenue, earnings and cash flow were lower than in prior years as the company hit a low point.

Over the past 10 years there were 6 years where the Return on Equity was below 10%. During the past 3 years ROE has been above 10%. The ROE is expected to be above 10% over the next two years. For 2013, the ROE on comprehensive income is higher at 16.2%, but it has varied in other years.

All the debt ratios are good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 was 1.68. The Debt Ratio was 2.92. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.52 and 0.52. All these values are very good.

I certainly like this tech company. I do not have any shares for the simple fact that you cannot invest in everything. I already have some 50 different stocks in my various accounts. This stock has grown their dividends nicely and they have good debt ratios. These are things I very much like in a stock. See my spreadsheet at esl.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, January 23, 2014 and will be available here.

Enghouse Systems Limited is a global provider of enterprise software solutions serving a variety of distinct vertical markets. Its strategy is to build a large diverse enterprise software company through strategic acquisitions and managed growth. Its web site is here Enghouse Systems.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Bank of Nova Scotia 2

I do not own this stock of Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS). This is one of the big banks of Canada. All our big banks are dividend growth companies.

Over the past year in insider trading, there is some $53.7M in insider selling and $0.4M in insider buying. Net insider selling is at $53.3M. There are a lot of officers with options under this bank (some 17 pages in the insider trading report I looked at). There are not only options, but Rights Performance Share Units, Rights Deferred Stock Units and Rights Director Deferred Stock Units. There is also an Employee Stock Option Plan (ESOP).

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 10.29, 11.32 and 13.20. The current P/E Ratio is 11.74 based on 2014 EPS estimate of 5.49 and a stock price of $64.43. This stock price test says that the stock price is reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $60.02. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.00, 1.14 and 1.28. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.07. This stock test says that the stock price is reasonable.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.31. The current P/B Ratio is 2.21, a value 95% of the 10 year ratio. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.10% and the current dividend yield is some 6% lower at 3.85%. It is better that the current dividend yield is higher than the 5 year median, but they are only 6% off, so the stock price is probably reasonable. If you look at the historical average dividend yield it is 3.74% a value 3% lower than the current dividend yield. This stock test suggests that the stock price is rather reasonable.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $68.50. This 12 month stock price implies a total return of 10.17% with 3.85% from dividends and 6.32 from capital gains.

This bank was in MPL Communication Daily Buy and Sell Advisor's 6-Pak Approach for 2013 and their Canadian Dozen for 2014. An December 2013 article on 5 stocks to buy and hold in the G&M by John Heinzl gives this stock as one of the picks. There is an article in Forbes saying that this bank is over oversold. (If you do not know what this means, it means that a stock has recently been beaten down and it is time to buy it.)

I think that this bank and the others are selling at reasonable prices and are good for a long term buy. However, we still have financial problems in our economics and this is not going to be resolved anytime soon. See my spreadsheet at bns.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, January 20, 2014 and is available here.

The Bank of Nova Scotia is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. It is an international bank having banking in Canada and some 40 other countries around the world in the geographic regions of the Caribbean and Central America, Mexico, Latin America and Asia. Its web site is here Scotia Bank.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Bank of Nova Scotia

On my other blog I am today writing about 2000, 2008 and Recovery ...continue...

I do not own this stock of Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS). This is one of the big banks of Canada. All our big banks are dividend growth companies.

This bank has also done quite well comparatively with dividend increases. They only stopped dividend increases for one year which was in 2010. However, dividend increases are down considerably from what they were prior to 2008. Dividend growth to 2008 over past 5 and 10 years was at 18% and 15.9% per year. The dividend growth over past 5 and 10 years to October 2013 was at 4.5% and 11% per year.

For 2013 the dividends grow 9.13% over the dividends for 2012. The latest increase was for 3.3% for 2014, however, this bank tends to raise the dividends more than once per year. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio is 46% for earnings and 45% for cash flow. The comparable values for 2013 were 46% for earnings and 37% for cash flow. So this is good.

Shareholders have done well recently on this stock with the total return over the past 5 and 10 years at 19.67% and 11.20% per year. The dividend portion of this return is 4.87% and 3.92% per year. The capital gain portion of this return is 14.80% and 7.28% per year.

The outstanding shares have increased by 4% and 1.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options, DRIP and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow has been good to very good.

Revenue per Share has grown at 9.3% and 6.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share growth using the 5 year running averages is somewhat lower for the last 5 years, with 5 and 10 year growth at 6.5% and 6% per year, respectively.

The Earnings per Share Growth is at 11% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The EPS growth using the 5 year running averages is 6% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Cash Flow per Share growth is at 9.6% and 7.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The CFPS growth is at 11.4% and 6.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using the 5 year running averages.

For this stock, the Return on Equity has been mostly above 10% and the ROE for 2013 was 14.4% with a 5 year median of 14.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income is a bit better coming in at 15.6% for 2013.

The Liquidity Ratio is good at 1.67, but most analysts skip this ratio as it is not as important as the Debt Ratio. The Debt Ratio is 1.07 for 2013 and this is in line with other banks. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2013 are at 15.98 and 14.98 and are also lower than the 10 year median values as with other banks. The 10 year median values for these ratios are at 18.92 and 17.92. These values are rather normal for financials.

This bank has been doing well lately. See my spreadsheet at bns.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, January 21, 2014 and will be available here. On Tuesday, I will look at the current price and see whether or not it is a reasonable one.

The Bank of Nova Scotia is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. It is an international bank having banking in Canada and some 40 other countries around the world in the geographic regions of the Caribbean and Central America, Mexico, Latin America and Asia. Its web site is here Scotia Bank.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, January 17, 2014

Toronto Dominion Bank 2

I own this stock of Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD). When I sold some Metro in 2009, I bought this stock. It is the 3rd bank stock I bought. I first bought this stock in 2000 and some more in 2009. I have a total return of 14.74% per year with 3.32% from dividends per year and 11.42% from capital gains.

When I look at insider trading, I find $97.8M of insider selling and $2.6M of insider buying with net insider selling of $95.2M. There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $55.8M, the CFO having shares worth around 1.6M; the Chairman with shares worth around 1.5M and a director with shares worth around $14.9M. In 2013 outstanding shares were increased by 4.2M shares because of stock options. This number of shares is currently worth around $412M.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.42, 12.63 and 13.84. The current P/E Ratio is 11.72 based on a stock price of $98.10 and 2014 earnings estimates of $8.37. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $98.19. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 1.00 and 1.13. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.00. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 1.72. The current P/B Ratio is 1.92 a value some 11% higher. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable as the current P/B Ratio is not that much higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio.

The current dividend yield is 3.51%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.71%. The current yield some 6% higher. These are close so the stock price is considered to be reasonable. However, if you look at the historical average dividend yield it is 3.31% and the current one is some 5.9% higher. This test says that the current stock price is cheaper than average. However, there is not that much in difference, so we come back to a reasonable price.

An article by Motley Fool gives 3 Top Canadian Stocks for 2014 and TD is included in this list. In July 2013, the blogger of Dividend Growth Investing and Retirement did an analysis of this bank. You can see some recent comments on this bank at Stockchase site. At the Globe and Mail Lou Schizas gives this bank a favorable report.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $102.00. This implies a total return of 7.48% with 3.51% from dividends and $3.98 from capital gains. (See my blog for information on analyst ratings .)

It is interesting that recommendations are all over the place. It seems some analysts do not think that there will be much in the way of upside for bank stocks, including this stock. I will not be buying any more of this bank for the simple reason I already have enough of this bank and banks stocks currently in my portfolio. However, the price on this stock is at a reasonable level. See my spreadsheet at td.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, January 16, 2014 and is available here.

The TD bank is a bank with a full range of financial products and services for individuals and corporations in Canada, USA and internationally. Financial products and services include Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; Wealth Management; U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking; and Wholesale banking products. Its web site is here TD.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Toronto Dominion Bank

I own this stock of Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD). When I sold some Metro in 2009, I bought this stock. It is the 3rd bank stock I bought. I first bought this stock in 2000 and some more in 2009. I have a total return of 14.74% per year with 3.32% from dividends per year and 11.42% from capital gains.

The TD bank did very well in the economic problems of 2008 and only had 1 year of no dividend increases which was in 2010. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividends are at 6.54% and 10.82% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This bank tends to do small increases several times a year. The last increase was for 1.2% for the first dividend of the 2014 financial year. However, in 2014 dividends are up so far by 6.17% over the 2013 financial year. On my original investment in 2000, I am earning a dividend yield of 9.58% and on my investment in 2009; I am earning a dividend yield 7.21%.

This bank has also done well lately with the 5 and 10 year total returns at 22.71% and 12.55% per year. The dividend portion of these returns was at 4.54% and 3.55% per year over these periods. The capital gains portion of these returns was at 18.17% and 9% per year over these periods.

Outstanding shares have increased by 2.6% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to DRIP, Stock Options and Share Issues. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow has been fine to good.

Revenue per Share has increased by 10.4% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at the 5 year running averages, the increases are lower at 6.4% and 4.6% per year. The EPS has increased by 7.3% and 16.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Again, looking at the 5 year running averages the increases are lower at 3.5% and 11% per year.

Cash Flow per Share has increased by 7% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running averages show a bit different story with 5 and 10 year increases at 10.4% and 5.9% per year. (Comparing data from exactly 5 and 10 years ago and comparing data from using 5 year running averages over the past5 and 10 years can tell you different things. However, looking at the data on my spreadsheet, you can see that this bank has done well in growth over the past 5 years.)

For most years the Return on Equity is over 10%. The ROE for the 2013 financial year is 12.8% and the 5 year median ROE is 11.8%. The ROE on comprehensive income is slightly better with an ROE for the 2013 financial year at 13.1% and with a 5 year median at 12.5%.

Debt ratios look good and as with the other two banks I reviewed, the Debt, Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are now better than in the past. The Liquidity Ratios looks fine at 1.80. However, as I have mentioned, few analysts look at this ratio. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 which is typical currently for banks. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios of 16.60 and 15.60 are better than in the past as these ratios were closer to 20.00 and 19.00 prior to 2008.

I am pleased with my investment in this stock. This bank is currently growing well. See my spreadsheet at td.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, January 17, 2014 and will be available here.

The TD bank is a bank with a full range of financial products and services for individuals and corporations in Canada, USA and internationally. Financial products and services include Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; Wealth Management; U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking; and Wholesale banking products. Its web site is here TD.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Royal Bank of Canada 2

On my other blog I am today writing about Dividend Payment Cycles...continue...

I own this stock of Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY). In 1995 I bought this stock and this is the second bank stock that I have bought. Since buying this bank I have made a total return of 18.54% per year with 5.15% per year from dividends and 13.39% per year from capital gains. On my original purchase price I have a dividend yield of 36.9%.

Over the past year, insider trading was $19M of insider selling and $1M of insider buying for a net insider selling of $18M. There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth some $51M and the Chairman having shares worth $2.3M. In 2013 outstanding shares were increased by 2.5M shares because of stock options. This number of shares is currently worth around $180.5M.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 10.05, 16.09 and 18.04. The current P/E Ratio is 12.14 based on a stock price of $71.39 and 2014 earnings of $6.88. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $63.51. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham price Ratios are 1.08, 1.22 and 1.41. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.12 based on a stock price of $71.39. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.32. The current P/B Ratio is 2.34, based on a stock price of $71.39, a value almost the same. This stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.13% and the current dividend yield is 3.75% a value some 9% lower. What you really like to see is the current yield higher, but these yields are close so the stock test suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but towards to the high side of reasonable. The historical average dividend yield is 3.59% a value just 4.4% higher than the current dividend yield. The shows the same thing, that is that the stock price is reasonable.

An article in 4-Traders talks about the RBC giving all investors a $9.95 trade. Another initiative is setting up an on-line site call "Community" so small investors can talk to other small investors and ask them questions. An article in Financial Post talks about Canadian borrowers reaching the limit on what they can borrow. This is likely to slow loan growth this year.

In Forrester's report, RBC earned highest overall score in Canada. In July 2013, the blogger of Dividend Growth Investing and Retirement did an analysis of this bank.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $73.90. This implies a total return of 7.27% with 3.75% from dividends and 3.52% from capital gains.

I am certainly pleased with my investment in this bank and I will keep holding the shares that I have. I have too much of my investment in banks and too much in this bank to be buying anymore at this point. I think that the stock price is reasonable. See my spreadsheet at ry.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, January 14, 2014 and is available here.

Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) and its subsidiaries operate under the master brand name RBC. They are one of Canada's largest banks as measured by assets and market capitalization, and are among the largest banks in the world, based on market capitalization. They provide diversified financial services companies, and provide personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment banking and transaction processing services on a global basis. They have personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 56 other countries. Its web site is here RBC.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Royal Bank of Canada

I own this stock of Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY). In 1995 this is second bank stock that I have bought. Since buying this bank I have made a total return of 18.54% per year with 5.15% per year from dividends and 13.39% per year from capital gains. On my original purchase price I have a dividend yield of 36.9%.

This bank had three years of a level dividend, with their last dividend increase in 2008 and the first one 2011. The 5 year dividend growth is 4.23% per year and the 10 years dividend growth is at 11.08%. Prior to 2008 the dividend growth for the over the last 5 and 10 years was at 14.64% per year 15.58% per year. Since I bought this stock in 1995, by dividends have grown by 12.2% per year. This is over a period of 19 years.

Our Canadian Banks have performed very nicely for a very long time. Yes, they did have problems with the 2008 bear market, but they seemed to have done better than a lot of banks in a lot of other countries. I think that every Canadian should have some Canadian bank stocks in their portfolio if they want to build good dividend income over time.

The total return for RBC over the past 5 and 10 years is total return of 19.23% per year and 12.88% per year. The dividend portion of this total return is at 4.61% and 3.92% per year over these periods. The capital gain portion of this return is at 14.62% and 8.95% per year over these periods.

The outstanding shares have increased by 1.5% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to DRIP, Stock Options and Share Issues. The shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow over the past 5 and 10 years is good.

The Revenue has grown at 7.4% and 5.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 5.9% and 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings per Share have grown at 10.4% and 9.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, the growth in EPS is much lower at 4.4% and 8.2% per year. The Cash Flow per Share has grown at 7% and 7.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The Return on Equity has mostly been above 10% every year. The ROE for the financial year ending in October 2013 is 16.7% and the 5 year median is 12.7%. Generally speaking the ROE on comprehensive income is better than the ROE on net income. The ROE on comprehensive income for the financial year ending in October 2013 is 20%, a value that is almost 20% higher than for net income.

The debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio I get for this stock is 2.01. Most analysts do not much bother with this ratio for banks. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 and this is normal for a bank and a bit higher than before 2008. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 17.10 and 16.10 are fine for a bank and lower than what they were before 2008. The 5 year median ratios were 20.73 and 19.73, respectively.

As with all my Canadian Bank stocks, I have done very well over the longer term with this stock. See my spreadsheet at ry.htm.

This is the first of two parts. Second part will be posted on Wednesday, January 15, 2014 and will be available here.

Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) and its subsidiaries operate under the master brand name RBC. They are one of Canada's largest banks as measured by assets and market capitalization, and are among the largest banks in the world, based on market capitalization. They provide diversified financial services companies, and provide personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment banking and transaction processing services on a global basis. They have personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 56 other countries. Its web site is here RBC.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, January 13, 2014

Bank of Montreal 2

On my other blog I am today writing about my stock choices for my TFSA for 2014...continue...

I own this stock of Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO). When I bought this stock in 1983, I thought it was the best bank stock to buy at that time. I have only been tracking this stock on Quicken since 1987 and for this stock I have earned a return of 15.91% per year with 11.57% from Capital gain and 4.34% from dividends.

Over the past year the insider trading report shows $20.7M of insider selling and $20.0M of net insider selling. There is some insider buying of $0.7M. The thing with banks is that there are a lot of officers with options. For 2012 SO worth $146.5M increased the shares by 0.32% or by just over 2M shares.

The 5 year low median and high median Price/Earnings ratios are 9.12, 11.34 and 12.10. The current P/E Ratio is 11.44. This is close to the 5 year median of 11.34, so it probably says that the stock price is reasonable. The P/E Ratio of 11.34 is based on a stock price of $71.75 and 2014 earnings of $6.27.

I get a Graham price of $78.51. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham price Ratios are 0.83, 0.96 and 1.18. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.91 and this stock price test says that the stock price is reasonable.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.72 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.64 a value some 95% of the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price says that the stock price is reasonable.

The current dividend yield is 4.24% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 4.85%. A good price is when the current dividend yield is higher than the 5 year dividend yield. However, it is only 13% lower, so the stock price is probably reasonable.

If you compare the current dividend yield of 4.24% to the historical average dividend yield of 4.19%, then the stock price becomes cheap to reasonable.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendation. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $72.80. This implies a total return of 5.7% with 4.24% from dividends and 1.46% from capital gains.

The site of North Fork Vue talks about recent ratings for this stock. The site Dividend.com rates BMO as a hold but does not specify why. However, David Pett at Investing at the Financial Post rates this bank, was well as TD (TSX-TD) and Scotiabank (TSX-BNS) as best buys for 2014.

The Canadian banks are no longer the bargain that they have been. The price is probably reasonable. It is interesting that analysts are all over the place as far as recommendations go. They are probably rate that there may be little profit in 2014 for this bank. See my spreadsheet at bmo.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, January 10, 2014 and is available here.

BMO is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. They are international bank having banking in Canada and US. They have clients, corporate, institutional and governmental, in UK, Europe, Asia and South America. Its web site is here BMO.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, January 10, 2014

Bank of Montreal

On my other blog I am today writing about my neighborhood dogs...continue...

I own this stock of Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO). When I bought this stock in 1983, I thought it was the best bank stock to buy at that time. I have only been tracking this stock on Quicken since 1987 and for this stock I have earned a return of 15.91% per year with 11.57% from Capital gain and 4.34% from dividends.

On my original purchase amount in 1983, 31 years ago, I am making a dividend yield of 42.6%. This is why you buy dividend growth stocks. I wrote about this subject here and the accompanying spreadsheet is here. No other stocks beat the banks as far as good dividends and good dividend increases go.

After the financial crisis of 2008, BMO was the last big Canadian Bank to restart dividend increases and only did so for the first dividend payable in their 2013 financial year (November 2012). So this stock had 5 years of level dividends. Over the past 10 years, the dividend growth is at 8.1% per year. For the 10 years prior to 2008, the growth in dividends was 12.27% per year.

The total returns on this stock stalled after 2008 because of declining stock price and lack of dividend growth. However, the stock has picked up over the past few years and the total return over the past 5 years is at 24.56% per year and over the past 10 years total return is 6.94% per year. Over these periods the return from capital gain was 17.77% and 2.84% per year and the returns from dividends was at 6.79% and 4.10% per year.

The outstanding shares have growth at the rate of 4.9% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, Stock Options, DRIP and exchange of shares of a subsidiary corporation. Shares have decreased due to buy backs.

Revenue per Share growth is not bad over the past 5 and 10 years at 4.6% and 3.1%. The picture changes a bit if you look at 5 year running averages and then growth is just 3% and 2.9%. EPS over the past 5 and 10 years look quite good at 10.3% and 6.2% per year. However, looking at 5 year running averages growth is just 2.9% and 5.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Why I look at 5 year running averages is because if you look at growth over exactly a 5 or 10 year period the growth you see might not tell you the whole story. Exactly 5 or 10 years ago can be a particularly good or a particularly bad year and you might get the wrong impression. For this stock, 5 years ago was 2008 and this is when the bank started to not do particularly well.

As far as cash flow goes, growth and annual changes are all over the place as bank's cash flows tend to fluctuate and they have years of negative cash flow. Few analysts even bother to talk about cash flows. There has been growth in cash flow over the past 4 years.

As far as Return on Equity goes, for most years the ROE is above 10%. The ROE for the financial year ending in October 2013 is 13.5% and the 5 year median is 12.9%. The ROE on comprehensive income is higher with the ROE at 15.5% and the 5 year median at 14.8%. So this is good.

As far as debt ratios goes, banks tend to be different that other companies. I do look at the Liquidity Ratio which I find currently at 3.72. However, few analysts bother with this. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 and is current typical for banks. Before 2008, this ratio used to run at 1.04 or 1.05. Both the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios tend to be very high for financial institutions and the current Ratios at 17.07 and 16.07 are better than some other banks and better than the 5 year medians on these ratios which are 19.67 and 18.67.

The growth on this bank is mediocre to good when looking at Revenue, Revenue per Share, EPS, Book Value per Share, Net Income and Total Return. Debt Ratios are normal for a bank and better than before 2008. See my spreadsheet at bmo.htm.

This is the first of two parts. Second part will be posted on Monday, January 13, 2014 and will be available here. This second report will talk about the current stock price.

BMO is a bank. They offer personal and corporate banking and wealth management services in Canada and US, which includes looking after banking, financing, investing, credit card and insurance needs. They offer mortgages and mutual funds and they offer full service and on-line brokerage services. They are international bank having banking in Canada and US. They have clients, corporate, institutional and governmental, in UK, Europe, Asia and South America. Its web site is here BMO.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Goodfellow Inc. 2

I own this stock of Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF). I started to look at this stock when I was searching for small cap stocks that paid dividends. It looked like an interesting stock. Goodfellow is a small cap stock that the Investor Reporter has written about a number of times.

When I look at insider trading, I find some insider buying and some insider selling, with a net of insider selling. However, all this trading is for very small amounts and tells us nothing. There also has been no insider buying or selling since May 2013. There is 60% insider ownership.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 14.03, 14.68 and 15.32. The current P/E Ratio is 13.58 based on a stock price of $9.10 and previous 12 months earnings of $0.67. (There are no estimates for this stock.) This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

However, P/E Ratios have been rising lately. The 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are much lower at 7.47, 10.31 and 13.00. This suggests that perhaps the stock price may not be relatively reasonable. (You do not often get such variances in the 5 and 10 year median P/E Ratios.) However, a P/E of 13.58 is also not a particularly high P/E Ratio in absolute terms.

I get a Graham Price of $14.53. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.58, 0.65 and 0.75. These are all quite low P/GP Ratios. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $9.10. This stock test says the stock price is reasonable. Also, in absolute terms a P/GP Ratio of 1.00 or less says a stock is cheap.

The Price/Book Value per Share is 0.91 and the current P/B Ratio is 0.65 a value 28% lower or 71% of the 10 year median ratio. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. Also, a stock is considered cheap in absolute terms when the P/B Ratio is less and 1.00.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.4% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 3.85% a value some 14% lower. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable to cheap. If you look at historical dividend yields, the average is 4.77% a value some 7.8% above the current dividend yield. This test says that the stock is not cheap, but more in the relatively reasonable category.

There are no analysts recommendations on this stock; however in February 2013 Investment Reported rated this company a Hold. This was because, although sales climbed, the earnings were down. This was due to rising operating expenses. I track the OPM Ratio (Operational Profit Margin that is CF/Revenue). This has been declining over the past few years. This company sells products for the Real Estate market and this is not a good market at the moment, especially in the US.

The stock price is cheap to reasonable by any measure. You lose on investments when a company goes bankrupt or is so damaged by economic circumstances that it cannot recover. I see neither with this company. It also has a very strong balance sheet that will help see it through bad economic times. The time to buy stocks is when a stock is out of favour and this is perhaps what is with this stock at this time. See my spreadsheet at gdl.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, January 8, 2014 and is available here.

Goodfellow Inc. is one of eastern Canada's largest independent re-manufacturers and distributors of lumber and hardwood flooring products. The company serves customers throughout Canada, the United States and abroad including the UK and China and the Middle East. H.Q is Delson, Quebec, just outside Montreal. It is about 60% owned by insiders. Its web site is here Goodfellow.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Goodfellow Inc.

On my other blog I am today writing about using my Stock Reviews...continue...

I own this stock of Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF). I started to look at this stock when I was searching for small cap stocks that paid dividends. It looked like an interesting stock. Goodfellow is a small cap stock that the Investor Reporter has written about a number of times.

I do not think you can call this stock a dividend growth company, rather it is a dividend paying small cap. The company has raised the dividends and lowered them. They have also paid special dividends. There is not much in the way of consistency here. The dividends have declined by 6.89% over the past 5 years but are up by 6.88% over the past 10 years.

The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 10.08% and 9.03% per year. The dividend portion of this return is 5.91% and 6.96% per year over these periods. The capital gain portion of this return is 4.18% and 2.28% per year over these periods. I personally have lost some 7.44% per year on this stock that I bought in 2010 and 2011. Looking back, I think I paid too much for my shares.

Outstanding shares have declined slightly (less than 1%) over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares are increased for Stock Options (there are not many) and decreased by buy backs. The company is current buying back shares.

No matter how you look at things, using 5 and 10 year changes or 5 year running averages changes, revenues, earnings and cash flow have grown little or declined. Revenue per share up less than 1% and down by less than 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings are down by 5.7% and 1.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is up by 2% and down by less than 1% over the past 5 and 10 years.

The company is profitable. I have EPS going back to 1998 and they have had positive earnings each year. Cash Flow has also been positive over this period. Revenues, earnings and cash flow have all fluctuated since 1998.

The Return on Equity has not broken above 10 since 2010. The latest ROE is 4.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income is the same, at 4.5%.

The one good thing is debt ratios. The current Liquidity Ratio is 2.46 and the current Debt Ratio is 2.83. The current Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.55 and 0.55. These are all great ratios.

This stock is not doing well at the moment. See my spreadsheet at gdl.htm.

This is the first of two parts. Second part will be posted on Thursday, January 9, 2014 and will be available here.

Goodfellow Inc. is one of eastern Canada's largest independent re-manufacturers and distributors of lumber and hardwood flooring products. The company serves customers throughout Canada, the United States and abroad including the UK and China and the Middle East. H.Q is Delson, Quebec, just outside Montreal. It is about 60% owned by insiders. Its web site is here Goodfellow.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Calian Technologies Ltd. 2

I own this stock of Calian Technologies Ltd. (TSX-CTY, OTC-CLNFF). This is an interesting small cap company with a very nice dividend. This stock came up on a Globe Investor site. The Globe Investor Number Cruncher is an investment column about screening for stocks and funds. They did one on companies with little to no debt. I also noted that the Financial Blogger has this stock on his Top Ten Canadian Dividend Stocks list.

When I look at insider trading, I find $0.4M of insider selling and $0.4M of net insider selling. There is a tiny bit of insider buying. Both the CEO and CFO have sold shares over the past year. When I last reviewed this stock the CEO had shares worth around $1.7M and current he has shares worth around $1.4M. The CFO at my last review had shares worth around $0.3M and today has shares around $27,000.

There is some insider ownership, but not a lot. Recently some directors have held on to their options. Under this company they have not only options but Deferred Share Units that seem to be for Directors only. The company has lately been buying backs shares because they feel the price is low. None of this tells us much.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 9.83, 10.51 and 11.93. The current P/E Ratio is 11.79 based on a stock price of $21.11 and 2014 EPS estimates of $1.79. This stock test says that while the price is reasonable it is in the higher range.

I get a Graham Price of $19.07. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.90, 1.04 and 1.14. The current P/GP is 1.11 based on a stock price of $21.11. This stock test again says that the price is reasonable, although in a high range.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.25 and the current P/B Ratio is 2.34 based on a current BV of $9.03 and a stock price of $21.11. The current P/B Ratio is only 3% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio and this stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.9% and the current dividend yield is 5.31%, a value some 8.3% higher. Also, if you look at the historical average dividend yield, which is just 4.04%, the current dividend yield is some 31% higher at 5.31. Both these are saying that the stock is cheap.

The stock price might even be lower than what it appears as this company has around $4.00 per share in cash. This works out to be around 19% of the current stock price.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find only 2 analysts following this stock and both give a recommendation of Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $23.00. This implies a total return of $14.26 with 8.95% from capital gains and 5.31% from dividends.

A December 27, 2013 article in the Ottawa Citizen talks about the government downsizing its workforce. The blogger, Dividend Gangster gives a positive review of this stock in July 2012. There is not much in recent reviews on this stock. The Dividend Blogger has a rather negative attitude to this stock. He does not think that future returns will be much higher than the dividend.

I think that the stock price is rather cheap based on the dividend yield. However, it is cheap for a reason. There was no dividend increase last year and I think that it will not do well again until the economy recovers and I do not see that happening soon. It has great debt ratios which should help see this company through the current economic times. We are on a very slow recovery from the 2008 recession. See my spreadsheet at cty.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, January 06, 2014 and is available here.

Calian sells technology services to industry and government in Canada and around the world. Calian provides customers with ready access to an exceptional team of engineers, telecommunications and technology professionals, health care professionals and other highly qualified staff. Its web site is here Calian.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, January 6, 2014

Calian Technologies Ltd.

On my other blog I am today writing about Dividend Stocks that may be cheap. I am showing this information for the remaining stocks that I follow...continue...

I own this stock of Calian Technologies Ltd. (TSX-CTY, OTC-CLNFF). This is an interesting small cap company with a very nice dividend. This stock came up on a Globe Investor site. The Globe Investor Number Cruncher is an investment column about screening for stocks and funds. They did one on companies with little to no debt. I also noted that the Financial Blogger has this stock on his Top Ten Canadian Dividend Stocks list.

The company initiated dividends in 2003 and since that time they have increased the dividend every year except for the financial year ending in 2013. It would appear from their site that they have no current intentions of raising the dividend for the 2014 financial year. The company is being cautious and it is not surprising. It has been a slow economic recovery and the Federal Government is trying to trim its workforce.

The dividend is currently quite good on this stock and it currently at 5.3%. This yield is higher than the 5 year median dividend yield of 4.9% and the 10 year dividend yield of 4.36%. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is at 15.7% and 20.8% per year.

The total return on this stock is 22.01% and 10.26% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The capital gain portion of this return is at 12.74% and 5.27% per year over these periods. The dividend portion of this return is at 9.27% and 5% per year over these periods.

The outstanding shares are down by 1.8% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options and the Employees Share Purchase Plan and they have decreased due to buy backs. The company has been busy doing buy backs lately because they think that stock price is at a very good level.

Mostly this company has had good growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow over the past 5 and 10 years. The problem is that there has not been good growth recently, especially for the last financial year. Because of the share buy backs, the Revenue per Share, EPS and CFPS look better than what the company is really doing.

The Revenue per Share has increased by 5.7% and 6.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share increased by 1.9% for the 2013 financial year, but there was a decrease in Revenue of 1.5% in the 2013 financial year.

For Earnings per Share, the 5 and 10 year increases are at 6.4% and 11.6% per year. If you look at the 5 year running averages, the increases are even better at 11% and 24.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Here again, 2013 was not a good year with the EPS declining at 6% and the net income declining even further at 7.5%.

Cash Flow per Share is up by 6.2% and 5.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Here again if you use the 5 year running averages, the increases are even better at 9.7% and 13.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the CFPS decreased by almost 25% in 2013.

The Return on Equity has generally been very good lately (past 7 years) and has been over 10%. The ROE for the 2013 financial year is at 19.5% and the 5 year median is 20.9%. The ROE on comprehensive income is close to that on net income and is at 18.1% for the 2013 financial year.

A very good thing about this company is the great debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is quite high at 2.66 and the Debt Ratio is also very high at 3.16. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.46 and 0.46. Good debt ratios really help a company get through some bad economic situations.

My total return to date is not as good as it was last year as the price at the end of 2013 was slightly lower than the price at the end of 2012. For 2013, the stock price has been quite volatile. My total return to date is 11.22% per year with 5.01% from dividends and 6.21% from capital gains.

The dividends on this stock have been quite good. The stock price has been volatile and has not gone anywhere lately. See my spreadsheet at cty.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, January 05, 2014 and will be available here.

Calian sells technology services to industry and government in Canada and around the world. Calian provides customers with ready access to an exceptional team of engineers, telecommunications and technology professionals, health care professionals and other highly qualified staff. Its web site is here Calian.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, January 3, 2014

Metro Inc. 2

I own this stock of Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF). I am starting off the year with a dividend growth consumer stock. I was following this stock before I bought it because it was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth stock list and on the other dividend lists that I was following.

When I look at insider trading report, I find some $15.9M of insider selling and $15.7M of net insider selling. There is some $0.2M of insider buying. The selling was all in the first part of 2013. There are a lot of options outstanding, and there are also option like vehicles called Performance Share Unit and Deferred Stock Units. There is some insider ownership with the CEO having stock worth around $9.7M and the Chairman with stocks worth around $24.5M.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 9.13, 10.76 and 12.43. The current P/E Ratio is 12.43 based on 2014 Earnings of $5.22 and a stock price of $64.90. This stock price tests says that the stock price is relatively rather high.

I get a Graham price of $59.97. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 0.98 and 1.09. The current P/GP Ratio is $1.08 based on a stock price of $64.90. This stock test says that the stock price is relatively rather high.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.09. The current P/B Ratio is 2.12 based on a stock price of $64.90. The current one is only 1% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio and this stock test implies that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

If you look at the dividend yield the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.60% and the current yield is some 3.5% lower at 1.54%. Although you like the current dividend yield is be higher than the 5 year median dividend yield, it is quite close and this stock price test says that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

The reason for the discrepancy in the stock tests is that analysts expect earnings to be down by 30% in 2014. They expected a much lower EPS for 2013 but 2013 turned out to be a very good earnings year for this company. Of course, the reason for the good EPS is the sale of half their holdings in Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. The past performance of a stock does not does not tell you about the future performance. However, with the dividend yield test, you are dealing with actual not estimated values.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $66.70. This implies total return of 4.31% with 1.54 from dividends and 2.77% from capital gains.

An article in the financial post says Metro is the number 3 grocery chain and wonders if it will buy out Overwaitea or Jean Coutu. An article in financial post talks about how Metro is reorganizing its Ontario stores to meet the competition. A G&M article by John Reese talks about 4 Canadian stocks Warren Buffet would love and includes Metro.

The G&M number cruncher by Alvin Lau looked for companies with consistently strong returns on invested capital and came up with 10 companies, including Metro. Another G&M number cruncher by Michael Bowman looked for profit generators and come up with 23 stocks, including Metro.

The Blogger Investing Currently did an analysis of this stock in June of 2013. He thinks that Metro's growth will level off or flatten. Also, Metro will sold almost half its stake in Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. in January 2013.

By the dividend yield test the stock is from reasonable to cheap. However, it is a retail stock and there is some shakeup going on in this section, so if you have this stock, you should be keeping an eye on it. If you have had this stock in your trading account for some time, as I have had, there is a reluctance to sell because of capital gain tax. See my spreadsheet at mru.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, January 2, 2013 and is available here.

Metro is a leader in the food and pharmaceutical sectors. It operates a network of close to 600 food stores under the banners Metro, Metro Plus, Super C, A & P, Dominion, Loeb and Food Basics. It has 250 pharmacies under the banners Brunet, Clini Plus, The Pharmacy and Drug Basics. Metro's operations are concentrated in Quebec and Ontario. Its web site is here Metro.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.