Friday, June 29, 2012

Canexus Corp

I do not own this stock (TSX-CUS). This stock is part of Sentry Small/Mid Cap Income Fund. It is a small cap that pays good dividends. See stocks in this fund on G&M. Sentry home site. This stock is also mentioned by Michael Decter . Michael Decter is president and CEO of LDIC Inc.

This was also a company that converted from an income trust (TSX-CUS.UN) to a corporation (TSX-CUS) in July 2011. They also bought out Canexus Limited Partnership. Consequently, there was a big increase in shares in 2011.

As an x-income trust, the dividend is still very good at 6.8%. Dividends have been inconsistent in that they decreased then in 2008, when they had an earnings loss. They have been level since that time. It looks from the spreadsheet that they decreased dividends in 2011 and increased then in 2012, but what happened is that they changed distributions timing from 12 dividends per year to 4 dividends per year.

I look at what is actually received, not what is declared. However, dividends declared in 2011 was $.55 per year as is the dividends declared in 2010 and 2012. However, as far as I can see, shareholders only got $.46 per share in 2011, but will get $.55 in 2012.

Also, like most x-income trust companies, this company has very high Dividend Payout Ratios. The 5 year median DPR for earnings is 126%and for cash flow is 102%. The DPR for earnings for 2011 was still 126%, but it is coming down. It is expected to be 112% in 2012 and 82% in 2013. The DPR for cash flow was 53% in 2012.

As far as total return goes, the 5 and 7 year returns are 7.9% and 1% per year, respectively. The problem is that the stock price has come down since this stock was issued 7 years ago. The dividends portion of total return is 9% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. Capital loss is 1% and 6% per year over the past 5 and 7 years. So basically you got to keep some of the dividends declared.

Cash Flow has at least been positive. It has not grown over the past 5 years but is down 4% per year, but is up 19% over the past 6 years. This is because 2005 (6 years ago) cash flow was low. Cash Flow was good in 2006 and 2007, but then dropped off. It is just now picking up again.

Book Value has gone down a lot. It is down 33% per year and 30% per year over the past 5 and 6 years. A big portion of this is because of large increase in shares due to the Limited Partnership buy out. Book Value went down 84% alone in 2011. However, it was also going down because when it was an income trust, it paid out more than earnings in dividends. This occurs for all income trust stocks.

The Return on Equity for 2011 is showing as 30% and this is confirmed by the ROE on comprehensive income for 2011. However, ROE, except for 2009 was very low. The 5 year median ROE is just 1.9%.

The Liquidity Ratio has always been low, but the current one at 1.41 is the highest it has even been. In the 2011 financial year it was lower 1.15, but with a strong cash flow. When this ratio is below 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities.

The debt ratio on this stock was very good in the past; however the current one and the one for 2011 was 1.23. With the purchase of the Limited Partnership units, debt has increased substantially. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very high and are currently at 5.29 and 4.29 respectively.

This stock has a very good dividend which seems sustainable. However, since we are in uncertain economic times, I would prefer to see better debt ratios and better growth. I will keep an eye on this stock and see how it does over the next couple of years. If it is a good stock, it will be also a good stock in a couple of years.

Analysts are expecting revenue and earnings to grow over the next couple of years. I would also like to see this growth and see growth in cash flow. I would say, nice dividend, but a bit risky.

Canexus Corporation is engaged in the production of sodium chlorate and chlor-alkali products, and operates a hydrocarbon terminal. They have four plants in Canada and two at one site in Brazil. Its web site is here Canexus. See my spreadsheet at cus.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Saputo Inc 2

On my comment blog, “Is Quebec losing Head Offices?” See comments blog.

I own this stock Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP). ). I first bought this stock in 2006 and then some more, twice in 2007. To the end of May 2012, I have a return of 17.5%, with 2.24% coming from dividends and 15.26% coming from capital gain. Some 12.8% of my return is from dividends.

Over the past year the insider trading report shows 2.9M of Insider selling and net insider selling at $2.2M. The company gives out stock options, so this is not surprising. Not only do insiders have stock options, but they now have Performance Units Shares for non-directors and Participation Units for Directors.

The Saputo family owns just over 35% of the outstanding shares (Emanuele Saputo). The CFO, most officers and most directors have more options than shares. Still there are several people who own shares worth more than $1M. Saputo has been busy buying back shares on the open market. However, they seem to be only buying enough to basically cover stock options granted. The shares outstanding over the past 5 and 10 years haven’t changed.

There are 172 institutions that own 16.26% of the shares of this company. Over the last 3 months they have decreased their investment by 7%. However, over the past 10 days, they have increased their investment by 1%.

The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings ratios are 14.44, 18.01and 21.59. The current P/E ratio of 15.47 on a Stock price of $41.46 is between the low and median values and therefore shows a relatively reasonable stock price.

I get a Graham price of $25.26. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham price ratios are 1.18, 1.45 and 1.70. The current P/GP ratio of 1.64 shows relatively high stock price. However, the price is not unreasonable high.

The 10 year Price/Book Value ratio is 2.96. The current P/B Ratio is 3.92, some 32% higher. This shows a rather high current stock price.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.80% and the current dividend yield is 1.83%. The current is only 1.8% higher than the 5 year median. What you want is a current dividend yield above the 5 year median when you buy a stock. This shows that the current stock price is reasonable as the dividend yield is higher, but not much higher than the 5 year median dividend yield.

The 10 year median dividend yield is 1.81 and the 10 year median high dividend yield is 2.19%. The stock has seen better relative prices, but the current price is at a reasonable price by this measure.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy, Hold and Sell. The vast majority is in the Hold category and the consensus is a Hold. The consensus 12 month’s stock price is $45.10. This implies a 10.6% total return over the next year.

One analyst said that dairy demand remains stagnant in North America with the strong milk supply keeping competitive pressures high and restricting margin expansion. However, other analysts do feel that Saputo is a solid company. This is a retail company and these things happen. Saputo recently (Q4) took a $125M goodwill impairment charge.

A couple of analysts feel that the stock price is too high currently. Certainly, these analysts do not see much in the way of future growth in this company. Buy analysts on the other hand see this as a Saputo as a great company with solid management and a decent dividend.

This stock is talked about in a G&M article called How to build a winning portfolio. See G&M article.

My stock price testing gives mixed results. It depends what you look at. With mixed results, I tend to look at the P/B Ratios and the dividend yield. These also give mixed results with the P/B Ratios showing the price as a bit high and the dividend yield showing the price reasonable. Generally, I go with the dividend yield, unless there is a good reason not to. For this stock, I would go with the dividend yield and say the price is reasonable as it is basically at a median relative price.

This is a retail stock and I bought it for diversification. I am pleased with this stock and will continue to hold my shares. I will not be buying more for the simple fact that I already have enough shares. I never let anyone stock represent too high a percentage of my portfolio.

Saputo produces, markets, and distributes a wide array of products of the utmost quality, including cheese, fluid milk, yogurt, dairy ingredients and snack-cakes. Saputo is the twelfth largest dairy processor in the world, the largest in Canada, the third largest in Argentina and among the top three cheese producers in the United States. Our products are sold in more than 50 countries under well-known brand names. Its web site is here Saputo. See my spreadsheet at sap.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Saputo Inc

On my comment blog today, I am talking about the place companies I follow have their Head Office. See comments blog.

I own this stock (TSX-SAP). I first bought this stock in 2006 and then some more, twice in 2007. To the end of May 2012, I have a return of 17.5%, with 2.24% coming from dividends and 15.26% coming from capital gain. Some 12.8% of my return is from dividends.

This is a stock with a rather low dividend. The 5 year median dividend yield is just 1.8%. Dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 13.4% and 33.8% per year. Increases have been fairly low since 2006, although last year’s increase was quite good at 18.8%.

Since the last financial year ended on March 2012, there has been no dividend increase. Usually, it is the July dividend that shows the increase, but they have announced July dividend at old rate. The analysts’ consensus on dividends is that they will be no increase until the financial year ending March 2014. They expect the next increase to be around 18%. If this is true, this would be the first time since 2001 that Saputo has not done had an annual dividend raise.

The Dividend Payout Ratio is and has always been quite good. The 5 year DPR for earnings is 33% and for cash flow is 34%. The ones for the financial year ending March 2012 were 39% and 28%, respectively. This sort of company would have a low dividend yield and low DPRs because it would need money for expansion. It would be considered a dividend growth company.

The total return under this stock over the past 5 and 10 years is at 14.8% and 11.92% per year. The dividend portion of this return is 1.97% and 1.66% per year, respectively. That is dividends made up 13.33% and 13.96% per year of the total return. The capital gain portion of the total return was 12.82% and 10.26% per year, respectively.

Growth has mostly been good for this stock. The 5 and 10 year growth in revenue per share is 7.6% and 12.5% per year, respectively. Growth in EPS is 9% and 10% per year, respectively. Growth in cash flow is 9.7% and 13.7% per year, respectively. Growth in book value is 7% and 9% per year, respectively.

Debt ratios are good to very good. The current Liquidity Ratio is 1.55. The current Debt Ratio is very good at 2.41. Both the current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are quite good at 1.71 and 0.71, respectively.

The last thing to talk about is the Return on Equity. The ROE for the financial year ending in March 2012 is 18.1% and just above the good range of 10 to 15%. The 5 year median ROE is at the same place at 18.1%. The ROE based on comprehensive income confirms the very good ROE coming in at 18.6% for the financial year ending March 2012. It has a 5 year median ratio of 18.6%.

I am pleased with my investment in the company and will currently hold on to my shares. I will not be buying any more as they compose just over 6% of my portfolio.

Saputo produces, markets, and distributes a wide array of products of the utmost quality, including cheese, fluid milk, yogurt, dairy ingredients and snack-cakes. Saputo is the twelfth largest dairy processor in the world, the largest in Canada, the third largest in Argentina and among the top three cheese producers in the United States. Our products are sold in more than 50 countries under well-known brand names. Its web site is here Saputo. See my spreadsheet at sap.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Evertz Technologies 2

I own this stock (TSX-ET). I bought this stock in November 2011. I have a total return of 17.74% per year, with 3.81 of this return from dividends and 13.93% from capital gain. The dividends comprise of 21.5% of my total return. These values are to the end of May 2012.

According to the insider trading report, there is very minimal of insider buying and no insider selling over the past year. Looking at just the biggest insider holdings, the insider ownership comes 72%.

There are 25 institutions that own 6.41% of the outstanding stock of this company. Over the past 3 months their investment has gone up 0.8%. However, since I last looked at this stock 10 days ago, the institutional investment in this company has gone up 1.3%. These are modest amounts, but they do show confidence in this stock. However, do not forget that institutions have sold and well as bought this stock over the past 3 months.

The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings ratios are 11.85, 17.70 and 20.48. The current P/E ratio is 12.61 on a stock price of $12.86. This is between the low and median ratios and shows a reasonable stock price.

I get a Graham price of $9.64 and the 10 year low, median, and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.36, 1.68 and 2.12. The current P/GP Ratio of 1.33 on a stock price of $12.86 shows a very good stock price because it is below the 10 year median low.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value Ratio is 4.03. The current P/B Ratio is 3.17 and only 78% of the 10 year median. When the current P/B Ratio is at 80% of less of the 10 year ratio, it means that the current stock price is very good.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.17% and the current one is 4.35%. The current one is double the 5 year median and shows a very good stock price. However, I think that I should point out a couple of things here. First the dividend has increased a lot since it was first issued.

The other thing is that when insiders hold a lot of shares and they have a strong balance sheet, such as the situation on this stock, the dividends may not be safe. If earnings falter, dividends could retreat until better times. I am not saying the earnings will falter and dividends will be cut. I am just saying this is a possibility.

We are in uncertain times and we may be going into another recession. I think that this is a good company and that the management will act prudentially for the long term health of this company. Analysts following this stock do not expect further dividend increases beyond $.56 for year ending April 30, 2013. (Dividends are ready up 21% from 2012).

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. Consensus 12 months stock price is $15.50. This implies a 12 months total return of 24.88%.

In Dividends and a dollop of growth: Mix well, Ian McGugan of Number Cruncher mentions this stock at G&M. There is also a March 2012 report by Raymond Jones Ltd.

Market Watch gives a review of April 30, 2012 results, together with financial statements on their blog. The site Seeking Alpha has a February 1st article on this company called “Evertz Technologies: Potential Catalysts, A Healthy Dividend Yield”. See their site.

It would appear that the current price is relatively good. I am pleased with my investment in this company and would be probably buying more in the future when I have some cash.

Evertz Technologies Limited designs, manufactures and markets video and audio infrastructure equipment for the production, post production, broadcast and internet protocol television ("IPTV") industry. Its web site is here Evertz. See my spreadsheet at et.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Monday, June 25, 2012

Evertz Technologies

I am putting up today a new, updated index spreadsheet, see comments blog.

I own this stock (TSX-ET). I bought this stock in November 2011. I have a total return of 17.74% per year, with 3.81 of this return from dividends and 13.93% from capital gain. The dividends comprise of 21.5% of my total return. These values are to the end of May 2012. The actual capital gain is 8.1%. IRR (or internal rate of return) can be a bit misleading for short periods of time. With the recent drop in price, capital gain is just 1.1%. I expect this stock to do well in the long term, but no one knows what the short term will be.

The current dividend is very good at 4.35%. This is higher than the 5 year median of 2.17%. Dividends have been increasing at the rate of 23% over the past 5 years that the company has been issuing dividends. The last dividend increases was for 16.7%. However, the total increase over the past year was 21.7%. This is because dividends were raised twice in the last financial year.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for the last 5 years is good with a median DPR of 35% for earnings and 30% for Cash Flow (using CF excluding non-cash items). However DPRs have been increasing and the values for the financial year ending in April 2012 were 57% and 40% for earnings and cash flow. The DPR for earnings is expected to be around 55% for 2013.

This stock went public in 2006. It has done well over the past 6 or 7 years that I have statistics for and not so well over the past 5 years. However, a lot of companies have not done well over the past 5 years. This is mainly because the last recession started to bit since 2010. Just as it looks like we might be coming out of the recession, it now looks like we might just be going back into another one.

Growth was great until 2009 and then it has dropped off. The 10 year revenue per share grow is at 26% per year, but the 5 year revenue per share growth is just 7.6%. The same is true for EPS which is at 56% per year over the past 10 years, but 0% over the past 5 years. Cash Flow per share is also up great over the past 10 years at 56% per year, but only at 5.7% per year over the past 5 years.

The only good growth over the past 5 years is in book value that this is up 21% per year over this period. However, the 10 year grow in book value is a lot higher at 74% per year.

This company’s insiders hold a lot of the outstanding shares. As is usual for such companies, the debt ratios are extremely good. The current Liquidity Ratio is 8.63. Not as high as last year, but right on the 5 year median. The current Debt Ratio is also very high at 8.32. Both the current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.47 and 0.17, respectively.

The Return on Equity is also very good with one for the last financial year ending April 2012 at 20.2%. The 5 year median ROE is 20.8%. ROE has been dropping lately. The ROE using comprehensive income confirms the good ROE on net income with an ROE of 19.7%.

One of the problems in investing this stock is that the company does not publish their financial statements on their site. You have to look at news articles and sites like G&M to get financial information. G&M only shows what the financials are. Other sites provide a copy of the financial statements (sites like Hot Stocked).

Evertz Technologies Limited designs, manufactures and markets video and audio infrastructure equipment for the production, post production, broadcast and internet protocol television ("IPTV") industry. Its web site is here Evertz. See my spreadsheet at et.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Friday, June 22, 2012

Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. 2

I do not own this stock (TSX-RET.A). I have been following this stock for some time. It is one that I picked up off of a list of good companies to invest in by The Investment Reporter. This is a MPL publication. See their site.

When I look at insider trading I find $4.4M of insider selling and net insider selling of $4.4M. There is a minimal amount of insider buying. Most of the insider selling was by officers and directors and they seem to be cashing in stock options. There was also some insider selling by the CFO and this also seemed to be cashing in stock options. This mostly occurred in January 2012 and before. There were also some stock options for May and they seemed to be retained.

Most officers and the CFO have more options than shares. Some directors also have more options than shares. I looked at the two biggest insider holds, the CEO and an Officer (Stephen Reitman) and they each hold around 5% of the outstanding shares. They have both common and Class A non-voting shares. Sherlex Investments Inc. (Reitman family) owns 50% of the common shares and 12.5% of outstanding shares. The Reitman family does control the company.

There are some 48 institutions that hold 42% of the outstanding shares of this company. Over the past 3 months they have increased their investment in this company by 4%. This is a positive.

The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios are 9.76, 12.97 and 16.57. The current P/E Ratio of 13.97 is close to the median so it points to the current stock price of $12.43 as higher than the median, but reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $12.10. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 1.06 and 1.38. The current P/GP is 1.03 and so a bit below the median and points to a current reasonable stock price.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value Ratio is 2.29. The current P/B Ratio is 1.70 and only 74% of the 10 year median. This low P/B Ratio points to a very good current stock price.

The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 5% and the current dividend yield is 6.44%. The current year is some 28% higher than the 5 year median and also points to a good current stock price. The 10 year median high dividend yield is 3.78%. Recent dividend yields have been higher than usual lately, especially since 2009.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. There are mostly hold recommendations and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. With the Hold recommendation the 12 month stock price is $14.30. This implies a 21.48% total return over the next 12 months. Analysts all seem to mention that retail is a tough place to be currently. The dividend is thought to be very good.

There is an article in G&M about how Reitmans will be challenged to keep growing. See G&M. These head winds include competition, high cotton prices and Canadians with less money to spend.

Analysts think that the dividend is safe. My dividend records go back to 1995. They have not lowered dividends in the past, but have kept them steady for a number of years at a time. Their balance sheet is strong, so they have the ability to weather any coming bad times.

I think that we are probably heading into another recession and this will cause problems for retailers. The dividend yield is very good on this stock and you would be paid some 6.4% to hold this stock. However, the price of the stock is reasonable rather than cheap. If we head into another bear market and recession it could probably be picked up cheaper in the future, but who knows for sure. It is a calculated risk.

Reitmans (Canada) Limited operates a network of clothing stores specializing in women's & men's fashions and accessories. The company operates stores under the names Reitmans, Smart Set, Pennington Superstores, RW & Co., Thyme Maternity, Addition-Elle, and Cassis. Its web site is here Reitmans. See my spreadsheet at ret.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Reitmans (Canada) Ltd.

Want to be a better investor? Take responsibility for your investments. See comments blog.

I do not own this stock (TSX-RET.A). I have been following this stock for some time. It is one that I picked up off of a list of good companies to invest in by The Investment Reporter. This is a MPL publication. See their site. This is a great newsletter for an investor just starting out.

This is great Canadian dividend paying stock. Their 5 year median dividend yield is 5%. The 5 and 10 years growth in dividends is at 6.6% and 23% per year. Dividend increases have really slowed down lately. They, as have all retail companies, have been hit by the latest recession. They also did not increase their dividends in the financial year ending in January 2012. The last dividend increase in 2011 was an 11% increase.

Dividend Payout Ratios are good with 5 year median Ratios of 60.47% for earnings and 35.14% for cash flow. The DPRs peaked in 2012 at 111% for earnings and 54% for cash flow. The DPR for earnings is expected to be around 90% for 2013. (The financial years end in January each year so the last financial report was dated January 2012.)

The total returns over the past 5 years were a negative 4.83% per year. This was ameliorated by dividends of 3.85% per year. The capital loss was at 8.68%. However, the 10 year returns are quite good at 23% per year, with dividends accounting for 6.62% of the return per year and 29% of the total returns per year. The capital gain was 16.46% per year.

On this stock, all the 10 year growth rates are much better than the 5 year growth rates. Unfortunately, this is true of a lot of our companies. The last 5 years have been tough ones for a lot of companies, especially those in retail.

Revenues are up 0% and 6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenues per share are up 1.2% and 6.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The discrepancy comes because Reitmans have been buying back stocks. Outstanding shares are down by 0.2% and 4.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Earnings per share are down by 12.6% per year over the past 5 years. The EPS is up 6% per year over the past 10 years. Analysts following this stock think that earnings will grow over the next 3 years.

Cash flow is down 3% per year over the past 5 years. It is up 11.8% per year over the past 10 years. Book Value is up 4% per year over the past 5 years and up 8.6% per year over the past 10 years.

This is a company with a strong balance sheet. The current Liquidity Ratio is 3.93 and the current Debt Ratio is 4.46. Having a strong balance sheet really helps companies weather a lot of market volatility and recessions. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.29 and 0.29. The company does not have much in the way of debt.

The Return on Equity was a bit low for the financial year ending in January 2012 at 9.6%. It did not quite make it into the good zone of 10% to 15%. However, the 5 year median ROE is very good at 16.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income coming in at 9.2% for the end of January 2012 and at 15.1% for the 5 year median rate confirms the ROE based on net income.

This has been quite a good stock for its investors. This is a retail store out of Montreal, as was Le Chateau I reviewed yesterday.

Reitmans (Canada) Limited operates a network of clothing stores specializing in women's & men's fashions and accessories. The company operates stores under the names Reitmans, Smart Set, Pennington Superstores, RW & Co., Thyme Maternity, Addition-Elle, and Cassis. Its web site is here Reitmans. See my spreadsheet at ret.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Le Chateau Inc. 2

I do not own this stock (TSX-CTU.A). As I said yesterday, I picked up this stock from a column Jennifer Dowty wrote in 2010 on Dividend Paying stocks. The title of the article in Investor’s Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. It was about stocks that paid dividends and special Dividends.

When I look at insider trading, I find no trading at all. Barry Gruman became an insider and bought more shares of Le Chateau in May of 2012. See Press release. As far as I can see, Barry Gruman was an analyst at First Marathon Securities Ltd. This did not have much effect on the stock.

There are still outstanding options, but except for officers, insiders have more shares than options. Gruman and the two biggest insider share holdings account for some 48% of the outstanding shares. Also, there are two levels of shares with Class B shares having multiple votes.

There are some 8 institutions that own 37% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 3 months they have reduced their shares by almost 16%.

Before the earnings loss for the financial year ending January 2012, the 5 year low, median and high P/E Ratios were 8.83, 10.86 and 12.89. However, you cannot get a fix on the Price/Earnings Ratios because there are no earnings. The one analyst following this stock feels earnings will be negative for the next two years.

I also cannot get a fix on the Graham price as this is partially based on earnings and again, there are none and unlikely to be any soon. For Dividend yield comparison, since they have totally cut dividend, I cannot get any sort of fix on this either.

What sort of price comparisons can I do? I can still look at the Price/Book Value Ratio. First, the 10 year median P/B Ratio is 1.74. The current P/B Ratio at 0.21 is only about 12% of that so this shows a relatively very low stock price. One good thing is that the price is below the book value as the P/B Ratio is below 1.00. A piece of bad news is that the Book Value was decreased by 5.8% between the end of financial year and the end of the 1st quarter. This is not good.

One positive value is the cash flow, so we can look at Price/CFPS. Before the recent annual period, the 5 year median P/CFPS Ratio was running at 6.89. Using the last 12 month CFPS value of $0.66, I get a current P/CFPS Ratio of 1.75 and this is low. (Or, in other words, the stock price is good.) There are three problems that I see here. One is that the 12 month cash flow is less than the cash flow for the last financial year by 21%. The next one is that the CFPS has been dropping for the last 3 years. Over this period it has dropped by 71%.

The final problem is that the company has no cash at the end of the 1st quarter. Cash at the end of the financial period ending January 2012 was $7M and at the end of the 1st quarter it is a negative $14M. The company seems to be rapidly going through money. They have to raise money and they have. As at April 28, 2012, the Company had a 3-year committed asset based credit facility of $70.0 million as well as an import line of credit of $25.0 million.

So, the company has assets and they still have cash flow. They have been able to raise cash via debt for the next 3 years. Can they turn the company around in this period of time? The company feels that they can and insiders are motivated by the fact they own a lot of shares in this company.

I can only find one analysts that follows this stock. The recommendation was changed from a Hold to a Sell after the most recent quarterly report for April 2012. I see also a couple of analysts give this stock a “Don’t Buy”. The Hold rating had come with a 12 months stock price of $1.10, which is lower than the current price. The Sell recommendation comes with a 12 months stock price of $0.50.

This is a very risky stock. However, you could earn good capital gains if the stock is turned around.

Tomorrow, I will review another clothing stock of Reitmans Ltd.

Le Ch√Ęteau is a Canadian specialty retailer and manufacturer of contemporary fashion apparel, accessories, and footwear at value pricing for style-conscious women and men of all ages. The Company has 231 retail locations, of which 227 are located in Canada and 2 in the New York City area. They also have 7 stores under license in the Middle East. Its web site is here Le Chateau. See my spreadsheet at ctu.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Le Chateau Inc.

I do not own this stock (TSX-CTU.A). I picked up this stock from a column Jennifer Dowty wrote in 2010 on Dividend Paying stocks. The title of the article in Investor’s Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. It was about stocks that paid dividends and special Dividends. Jennifer is a Portfolio Manager at Manulife Asset Management Limited. See her Bio on Manulife’s site.

This stock did pay some good dividends and the 5 year median dividend yield, before 2011 was 5.32%. In the not too distant past, it had paid special dividends in 2006 and 2008. Before dividends were totally cut in 2012, the increases to dividends were running around 19% per year.

As far as total return goes, it was 24% per year over the past 10 years. However, over the past 5 years, the total returns are a negative 24% per year. Over the past 10 years, 22.85% of the returns were due to dividends, which is some 94% of the total. Capital gain over the past 10 years is really, really low at just 1.45%. Over the past 5 years, the decline in stock value was moderated by an 11.17% dividend return.

The company’s earnings have been declining after reaching a peak in 2008. They hit a negative EPS in 2011 as well as in 2012. They had quite a bit loss in the 1st Quarter of 2012 at $.26 loss per share. After this quarterly report, the analyst following this stock changed his EPS estimates for this year from $.18 loss to a $.52 loss.

The Revenue growth is 0% and 4.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the Revenue growth per share is even lower at 0% and 2.56% per year. Cash flow growth is a negative 13% for the last 5 years and a positive 6.8% over the past 10 years.

Book value has grown over both periods at the rate of 5.8% and 9.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the book value can only go down if there is going to be multiple years of negative earnings. (It went down about 11% in 2011.)

There also seems to be a steady share increase of around 1% per year for the issuing of stock options each year. Although to the company’s credit, there was no such increase of 2011.

This company does currently have a strong balance sheet. However, strong balance sheets can erode quickly when earnings and cash flow tank. The current Liquidity Ratio is 2.40 and is lower than the one for last year which was 3.13. However, this ratio has fluctuated in the past.

The current Debt Ratio 2.32, while a very good ratio, is lower than for last year which was 2.58. I have records going back to 1997 and this is the lowest value it has hit in that time by a good margin. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are still quite good at 1.76 and 0.76.

There was no Return on Equity for 2011 because there was an earnings loss. The 5 year median ROE is good at 19%. The 5 year median ROE based on comprehensive income at 18.3% confirms the good ROE based on net income.

The above does not paint a good picture of the current status of this stock. The stock is obviously in trouble. I will look at the price and what analysts say tomorrow. However, if the stock price crash has made your investment very small as far as you are concerned, you might want to hold it. On the other hand, the economic situation is not great and is likely to worsen before it gets better.

If the company can pull back from the brink and keep its balance sheet in relatively good shape, it could survive. The real question however, is not just can it survive. The real questions is “can it move past current problems and in the end thrive once more?”

My last comment is that Le Chateau Inc. is one company that does not make it very easy to find investor information. I had a hard time finding this, and in the end Goggled Le Chateau and Investor Relations to get it. Often, this is included under such titles as “About Us”. This is true of Le Chateau. If you go to the bottom of their web page you will find a clickable “About Us” that will lead to investor information. One thing that gets me about their annual report is that generally they have a handsome and believable man. However, the women are generally just pathetic.

Le Ch√Ęteau is a Canadian specialty retailer and manufacturer of contemporary fashion apparel, accessories, and footwear at value pricing for style-conscious women and men of all ages. The Company has 231 retail locations, of which 227 are located in Canada and 2 in the New York City area. They also have 7 stores under license in the Middle East. Its web site is here Le Chateau. See my spreadsheet at ctu.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Monday, June 18, 2012

Computer Modelling Group Ltd 2

Jeremy and Top Canadian Investing Blogs, see comments blog.

I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG). I first bought this stock in 2008 and some more in 2009. In 2011 I sold half my stock when my stock had doubled in price. I have made a return of 40.9% per year on this stock. The dividend portion of this return is 6.3% per year and the capital gain is 34.6% per year. On my original investment, I am making a dividend of yield of 10.2%. Dividends have increased by 146% since I first bought this stock. The current dividend yield is 3.85% and with special dividend 4%.

When I look at insider trading there is $8.1M of insider selling and $8M of net insider selling. Insiders are generally not retaining their options. Sometimes with fast growing companies, options are just considered part of their pay. Also, insiders sometimes do not want all their money in the company they work for. (The situation of Enron showed this problem where insiders had their jobs, their pensions and their savings all tied up in the company and lost big time when it went bankrupt.)

Individuals in this company do own shares worth in the millions of dollars. However, they do not own a large part of the outstanding shares. I looked only at the larges insiders holdings and this came to 8.2% of outstanding shares.

For institutions, 31 of them own 54% of this company. Within the last 3 months they have increased their holdings by 9.8%. In fact this company’s stock price has just spiked up. I do not see the reason for this, for this is not the first time this has happened. The 12 months consensus stock price is $18.80. The most recent price increase almost takes it to this level.

The 5 year low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratio are 14.60, 17.47 and 21.88. The current P/E Ratio is 26.46. This is way above the median values, however, P/E ratios have been much higher over the last two years and this current P/E is about the median for the last two years. The last two years low P/E ratios are 22.79 and 28.42. For a fast growing tech stock 26.46 is not particularly high.

I get a Graham price of $4.38. The current stock price of $18.26 has a Price/Graham Price Ratio of 4.17. The 10 year low, median and high P/GP ratios are 1.14, 1.57 and 2.03. These ratios have been higher over the past two years also, with a median of 3.30 for these years. However, a P/GP ratio of 4.17 is the highest it has been.

I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 4.18%. The current dividend yield is 3.50% some 16% lower. If you include in the dividend the recent special dividend, the yield comes to 4.05% and only 3.08% lower the then the 5 year median. Using the dividend yield, the stock price would appear reasonable. I know that they are paying out a high Dividend Payout Ratio, but they have little debt and a very good cash flow.

When I look at the Price/Book Value Ratio, the story is different. The 10 year median P/B Ratio is 5.94, a rather high one. The current one is 14.78, which is 149% higher. The P/B Ratios have also been higher recently, but in the 12 to 13 range. Sometimes the P/B Ratio get very high on fast growing tech stocks.

The analysts’ recommendations I find are Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy, and this is the majority of the recommendations. In May a couple of analysts adjusted upward their target 12 months stock price.

Cash Dividend On The Way From Computer Modelling Group Limited is title of an article in Forbes.

Analysts think the dividend could be affected by a sustained downturn. (They are paying out a lot of their earnings, which is fine while earnings are high. However, there is definitely a risk of dividend decreases if earnings falter.) There is a problem with share liquidity or not a high volume of shares being traded daily. This could result in difficulty of selling if you panic and want out quickly.

I am happy with my investment in this company. I have already locked in a profit. However, since it is a tech stock, I do keep an eye on it. But, at the moment it is doing just great.

Would I buy this stock today? I think that this is a great stock to buy if it is at a reasonable or low price or if we were in a rising market. I do not think that the price is unreasonable, but it is not a low price. The other thing is the market. I do not think that the Euro saga is over just year. On the other hand, earning 4% while waiting for the market to move up is not particularly bad either.

Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling. See my spreadsheet at cmg.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Friday, June 15, 2012

Computer Modelling Group Ltd

Do you know what the power of a growing dividend is? See comments blog.

I own this stock (TSX-CMG). I first bought this stock in 2008 and some more in 2009. In 2011 I sold half my stock when my stock had doubled in price. This is called locking in a profit. (Basically, the stock I own did not cost me anything.) This is a higher risk tech stock and I have often dealt with risky, fast rising stock in this manner.

I have made a return of 40.9% per year on this stock. The dividend portion of this return is 6.3% per year and the capital gain is 34.6% per year. On my original investment, I am making a dividend of yield of 10.2%. Dividends have increased by 146% since I first bought this stock. The current dividend yield is 3.8%.

The last increase in dividends was an increase of 23%. However, so far this year, dividends for 2012 are up 42% over dividends for 2011. The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 7 years is 44% and 41% per year. Dividends only were started on this stock in 2005.

The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios for this stock is 93% for earnings and 79% for cash flow. They are paying a high percentage of earnings and cash flow. If anything happened to earnings and cash flow, then you would expect them to lower the dividends. You should not look on this stock as not having a secure dividend.

The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 43% and 222% per year, respectively. The dividends account for 6.3% and 171% of the total return over the past 5 and 10 years. That is dividends account for 15.4% and 77% of the total returns over the past 5 and 10 years. Capital gains were 37% and 51% of the total returns over the past 5 and 10 years. As you can see, dividends make up a large part of the great 10 years returns.

This stock comes up rosy no matter what growth statistics you look at. Revenue per share is up 16% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up 24% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow is up 30% and 31% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Book Value is up 15% and 20% per year over past 5 and 10 years.

The shares outstanding have also been increasing each year. They are up 3.9% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. A lot of the increase, but not all, is due to stock options.

The debt ratios are very good on this stock. The current Liquidity Ratio is 2.53 and the current Debt Ratio is 2.50. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.63 and 0.63.

The last very good thing about this stock is the Return on Equity. The ROE for the financial year ending in March 2012 is 50.8%. The ROE based on the comprehensive income is the same at 50.8%. The 5 year median ROE is 48%.

I am, of course, please with my investment in this company. It is a rather risky investment, so I do keep an eye on this stock. Dividends could go down as well as up.

Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling. See my spreadsheet at cmg.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

McCoy Corp 2

I own this stock (TSX-MCB). I bought this stock in February 2011 and then in May 2011 to soak up small amounts of extra money in my TFSA. This is a dividend paying small cap. I have lost 3% per year on this stock. Of this negative total return, I got 2.22% in dividends per year. My capital loss would be 5.23% per year.

Insider trading report shows small amount of Insider buying and small amount of insider selling with a net of insider buying over the past year. There are a lot of options outstanding. Options outstanding over the next 3 years represent 4.3% of the shares of this company. The company also has a deferred share unit plan for Directors.

When I first looked at this on June 3, Reuters said there are 4 institutions that held 4% of the shares of this company. It also showed that institutions have reduced their investment in this company by 44% over the past 3 months. Now, Reuters say that there are 5 institutions holding 7.3% of the shares and that they have reduced their shares by 30.6% over the past 3 months. It is hard to determine how accurate their information is.

The 5 year median low, median and high Price/Earnings Ratios are 6.02, 8.11and 10.20. The current P/E ratio on a stock price of $3.65 is 7.93. This is between the low and median values and therefore shows a reasonable price. On an absolute basis, a P/E Ratio of 7.93 is a low ratio.

I get a Graham price of $5.07. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.47, 0.93 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio of 0.69 on a stock price of $3.65 is between the low and median values and therefore shows a current reasonable stock price. On an absolute basis, a stock price at or below the Graham price is a very good stock price.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value of 1.14 and a current P/B Ratio of 1.36, which is 19% above the median. This show a higher than median current ratio and a current stock price that, although not unreasonable, is a bit high.

The 5 year median dividend yield is showing up as 1.93%. However, the dividend yield has often been 0% because of cancelled dividends. However, the current dividend yield of 5.48% has only been surpassed once in 2008 when it was 11%. The next highest was 3.7%. This stock’s dividend yield has mostly been in the 2 to 3% range. So, it would seem that the current yield is relatively good.

Most of my tests show a rather reasonable current stock price. I can see why some analysts think the stock is cheap, as the dividend yield is very good and the P/E ratio is low. The other thing to consider is that the current cash under this company is $0.88 per share. At the end of 2011 this cash value was $1.11 per share and for the end of 2010 it was $0.64 per share. Because of the cash held by the company, you might be paying a lower value that you realize for this stock when you just consider the stock price.

There are 4 analysts following this stock and they all give it a Buy recommendation. The consensus, of course, would be a buy. This is a surprising number of analysts following this rather small stock. Analysts complain about this stock being illiquid. However, they seem to like the management and feel that the stock is rather cheap. I feel that my tests show that this stock is more in the relatively reasonable range. However, as I said above, the dividend yield is quite good and the P/E Ratio, on an absolute basis is low.

The mean 12 month stock price is $5.73. That would suggest a rather large total return of around 65% over the next 12 months.

The press release for the first quarter talks about the 38% increase in Revenue and 18% increase in net earnings. However, what they fail to mean is the decrease in cash flow, which I calculate to be around 65%. See press release. On the other hand, McCoy Corp. thinks the outlook for cash flow for 2012 will be good.

There is an interesting write-upon this company at Alberta Adventure by Fabrice Taylor . He thinks that the company is great and currently cheap. He has shares in the company. Mackenzie Institutional has a Canadian Microcap Value fund has McCoy as one of their top 10 investments. See their PDF document.

McCoy provides innovative products and services to the global energy industry. McCoy's two segments, Energy Products & Services and Mobile Solutions, operate internationally through direct sales and distributors with its operations based out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the US Gulf Coast. McCoy's corporate office is located in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada with offices in Alberta, British Columbia, Louisiana, and Texas. They are growing internationally. Its web site is here McCoy. See my spreadsheet at mcb.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

McCoy Corp

When should you sell in a bear market? See comments blog.

I own this stock (TSX-MCB). I bought this stock in February 2011 and then in May 2011 to soak up small amounts of extra money in my TFSA. This is a dividend paying small cap. I have lost 3% per year on this stock. Of this negative total return, I got 2.22% in dividends per year. My capital loss would be 5.23% per year. This is not bad considering how bad the market has been recently. I have little invested in this company.

This is an industrial stock servicing the energy industry. Dividends have been inconsistent. It is a small company and they pay what they can when they can. In 2010, after two years of earning losses they discontinued the dividend. They restarted it in again in 2011. There has been two dividend increases this year and the dividends for 2012 are up 200% compared to 2011.

The most recent increase, which is 66.7%, takes place in June of this year. Personally, I do not mind investing in companies that pay dividends in such a manner. It is much better than companies paying dividends that they cannot afford to. I do live of my dividends, but different companies have different business cycles, so I have never had a time when I earned less in dividends than in the prior year. I also do not have a big portion of my dividends in such stock.

For this stock, total return is very good over the past 10 years, but really lousy over the past 5 year. This stock is down 11.2% per year over the past 5 years. The dividends were at 1.5% per year, so the capital loss was 12.7% per year. Over the past 10 years, this stock had a total return of 14% per year. Dividends gave 2.1% per year of this total return. The capital gain was 11.9% per year.

On this stock, the growth is better over the last 10 years than over the last 5 years. The growth in revenue is 1.3% and 14.4% over the past 5 and 10 years. The growth in revenues per share is a negative 5% per year, but over the past 10 years is 4% per year. Per share growth is less because the number of shares outstanding has been growing quite fast at 6.5% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have grown because they raised capital in a few years by issuing shares.

Earnings per share growth are 0% over the past 5 years, but 46% over the past 10 years. About 10 years ago, this company had negative and very little in earnings. Cash Flow per share growth is 2% over the past 5 years and 15% over the past 10 years. Growth in book value is 11% per year and 16% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Book Value increased a lot under the new IFRS accounting rules.

The Return on Equity for this stock at the end of 2011was 16.9%. The 5 year median ROE on net income is much lower and not very good at just 8.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income confirms the good ROE on net income for the end of 2011, coming in at 14.5%. The 5 year median ROE on comprehensive income is also low at 7.5%.

Now on to the one really good thing about this stock, this is, the strong Balance Sheet. The current Liquidity Ratio is a great 2.38. The current Debt Ratio is also great at 2.76. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.57 and 0.57, respectively.

I am pleased with my investment in this stock. This sort of stock can potentially provide great future dividend income. However, it is a very risky stock and you should not be buying it if you cannot stand to take on such risks.

McCoy provides innovative products and services to the global energy industry. McCoy's two segments, Energy Products & Services and Mobile Solutions, operate internationally through direct sales and distributors with its operations based out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the US Gulf Coast. McCoy's corporate office is located in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada with offices in Alberta, British Columbia, Louisiana, and Texas. They are growing internationally. Its web site is here McCoy. See my spreadsheet at mcb.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Veresen Inc 2

I own Veresen Inc. (TSX-VSN) stock. I first bought this stock in December 2008 and then some more in March 2009. I got it at a good price and have made a return of 33.3% per year. Some 13.2% of this total return is in dividends and some 20.1% of this return is in capital gains.

There is $1.3M of insider selling and net insider selling at $1.1M. There is, of course, a bit of insider buying. There seems to be no options for insiders. Most of the buying is by the company plan. There are 61 institutions that hold 30% of the company. Over the past 3 months they have increased their shares by almost 25%. This is a positive.

When I look at 5 year low and high Price/Earnings Ratios, I find them at 17.05 and 24.87. I think that these are rather high for this type of stock. The current P/E Ratio is 28.74 on a current stock price of $12.40 is even higher. This shows a high stock price and a high relative price. However, they were not low either when I bought my shares in 2008 and 2009. I bought it when it was still a Limited Partnership.

The 10 year median Price/Graham price ratios for low, median and high stock price are 1.07, 1.19 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.76 on a current stock price of $12.40. This relatively high P/GP Ratio points to a rather high relative stock price. The Graham price takes into consideration the Book Value and EPS. It is interesting to note that the Graham price has not grown at all over the past 10 years.

The 10 year Price/Book Value Ratio is 1.89. The current one at 2.41 is some 28% higher. This also points to a relatively high current stock price.

The current dividend yield is 8.06% and the 5 year median is 8.92%, a yield that is almost 10% higher than the current one. This also points to a current relatively high stock price of $12.40.

The only test that shows the current stock price as not relatively high is the Price/Adjusted Funds from Operation Ratio. The 10 year low and high P/AFFO Ratios are 8.90 and 11.75. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 10.97. This shows the current stock price a little high, but not unreasonable.

The analysts’ recommendations are all over the place with Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, and Underperform. The majority of the recommendations are in the Hold category and this would be the consensus recommendation.

On this stock, analysts seem to be lowering their estimates, but upping their recommendations from Underperform to Hold or from Hold to Buy.

One Buy analyst has a 12 month stock price of $16.50. He likes the growing importance of the power business for Veresen as it diversifies the company’s asset base. The Buy is because the analyst thinks the company is currently underpriced. The consensus 12 month stock price mean is $15.50. This would be a total return around 33%.

A number of analysts feel that the dividend will be stable. One Hold recommendation came with the concern that there will be less volume flowing in their pipelines. One Buy analyst said that the DPR for cash flow is less than 75% and therefore should be sustainable.

Forbes thinks this stock is oversold. See their article. (By the way, oversold, means that the stock is low; that is because too many people have bailed out of it.) Also, Pat McKeough talked about what he likes about this stock in November of 2011. There have been no changes in the valuation of this stock since then. See TSI Network.

Personally, I do not expect much increase in this stock’s price. I think that the stock price is currently a bit high. I do expect to earn the dividend and an 8% return for me if what I basically expect going forward. I think that the Dividend Payout Ratio for cash flow is very important and because this is in the 60% to 70% range I think it is sustainable.

Veresen Inc. is a publicly traded dividend paying corporation based in Calgary, Alberta, that owns and operates energy infrastructure assets across North America. Veresen Inc. is engaged in three principal businesses: a pipeline transportation business comprised of interests in two pipeline systems, the Alliance Pipeline and the Alberta Ethane Gathering System; a midstream business which includes ownership interests in a world-class extraction facility near Chicago and other gas processing facilities energy infrastructure; and a power business with renewable and gas-fired facilities and development projects in Canada and the United States, and district energy systems in Ontario and Prince Edward Island. Its web site is here Veresen. See my spreadsheet at vsn.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Monday, June 11, 2012

Veresen Inc

What stock to review next? See comments blog. The next new stock for me to cover will be Le Chateau (TSX-CTU.A). This will occur next Tuesday, June 19, 2012.

I own Veresen Inc. (TSX-VSN) stock. I first bought this stock in December 2008 and then some more in March 2009. I got it at a good price and have made a return of 33.3% per year. Some 13.2% of this total return is in dividends and some 20.1% of this return is in capital gains.

The 5 and 10 year total return is not as good coming in at 13.9 and 13% per year, respectively. Some 7.8% of this return is for dividends and is 56% and 60% of the total return over the past 5 and 10 years. Capital gain over the past 5 and 10 years are at 6.1% and 5.2% per year.

Dividends are good and are currently running at just over 8%. However, dividends have not been increased since 2008. They will probably not be increased anytime soon as the Dividend Payout Ratio, especially for earnings, is very high. The 5 year median is 217% and the DPR for earnings for 2012 is expected to be around 232%. The 5 year median DPR for cash flow is better, running at 62% for a 5 year median, but is expected to be around 71% for 2012.

Analysts do not see any changes happening to the dividend over the next year. In fact one analyst gives the dividends from now to 2014 as the same as the current one. Analysts are still looking at Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) as the basis for determining if dividends can be paid by the company. The DPR for AFFO is expected to be 85.5% for 2012. The 5 year median DPR for AFFO is at 83%. This DPR is expected to be back to 83% in 2013 and then start to trend lower.

When looking at growth for this company, the only good one is the 10 year growth in cash flow, which is at 11.6%. All the rest, especially the per share ones, are generally not good at all. The Revenue growth per share is down 2% and 1% over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings per Share are down 11% per year over the past 5 years. However, earnings are up some 5.6% per year over the past 10 years. Over the past 5 and 10 years, Book Value per share is down 3.8% and 2.6% per year, respectively.

This Canadian company will not be preparing statements according to new IFRS rules. Instead they will switch their accounting rules to US GAAP.

The company has recently strengthened its balance sheet. Part of this had to do with the new US GAAP accounting rules, but only a very small part. Their current Liquidity Ratio is 2.86 where the 5 year median Liquidity ratio is very low at 0.67. Their Debt Ratio is currently at 1.86 and the 5 year median Debt Ratio is 1.34. The balance sheet was strengthened with the annual statements for 2011, but now is even much better with the 1st quarterly report of 2012. This is about all the good news there is.

The Return on Equity is low at 6.4%. This stock has a slightly better 5 year median ROE of 9.5%. The ROE based on comprehensive income confirms this ROE based on net income. ROE on comprehensive income is at 8.5% for the end of 2011. The 5year median is a bit lower on comprehensive income at 8.5%.

I am retaining what I have in this stock. The stock dividend is currently very good at 8%. I do not expect I would want any more of this stock until the earnings start to grow so that dividend increases are something that could be contemplated down the road. I do not expect this to happen anytime soon.

Veresen Inc. is a publicly traded dividend paying corporation based in Calgary, Alberta, that owns and operates energy infrastructure assets across North America. Veresen Inc. is engaged in three principal businesses: a pipeline transportation business comprised of interests in two pipeline systems, the Alliance Pipeline and the Alberta Ethane Gathering System; a midstream business which includes ownership interests in a world-class extraction facility near Chicago and other gas processing facilities energy infrastructure; and a power business with renewable and gas-fired facilities and development projects in Canada and the United States, and district energy systems in Ontario and Prince Edward Island. Its web site is here Veresen. See my spreadsheet at vsn.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Kathleen Gabriel’s Art Show



Kathleen Gabriel is part of the new show coming to Women’s Art Association of Canada on June 11 to June 29th. Gallery is open Monday to Wednesday and from 9:30 to 3:30.

Opening reception is June 13, 2012 from 5:30 to 7:30.

Women’s Art Association is at 23 Prince Arthur Avenue in Toronto. Close is the St. George Subway station, Bedford exit.

Saturday, June 9, 2012

Kathleen Gabriel’s Art Show



Kathleen Gabriel is part of the new show coming to Women’s Art Association of Canada on June 11 to June 29th. Gallery is open Monday to Wednesday and from 9:30 to 3:30.

Opening reception is June 13, 2012 from 5:30 to 7:30.

Women’s Art Association is at 23 Prince Arthur Avenue in Toronto. Close is the St. George Subway station, Bedford exit.

Friday, June 8, 2012

Enghouse Systems Ltd 2

What stock to review next? See comments blog.

I do not own Enghouse System stock (TSX-ESL). This stock was also recommended by Keystone as a good Small Cap stock with dividends in 2011.

The insiders trading report shows minimum of insider buying and minimum of insider selling with net insider selling. There are a lot of stock options outstanding and everyone has lots of stock options. Between the CEO and a director, they have some 32% of the outstanding stocks of this company. There are some 16 institutions that hold 34% of the shares of this company. Over the past 3 months they have sold about 4% of their shares. However, over the period there have been 2 new institutional buyers.

The above shows rather mixed result and so do not tell us much. If you look at history of 12 months stock prices and estimates for 2012 and 2013, they have been on the rise lately. The 2nd quarterly results of April 30, 2012 have just been released. They show slightly worse debt ratios. However, these ratios are still in the excellent category. Book Value is up a bit. See G&M article. Second quarter earnings were slightly less than the estimates.

The 5 year median low and high Price/Earnings Ratios are 17.25 and 28.52. The current P/E ratio is 17.74 and therefore shows a good current price of $12.95.

I get a current Graham price of $9.67. The current P/GP ratio is 1.33. The low, median and high 5 year P/GP ratios are 1.04, 1.21 and 1.54. This shows a current stock price that is relatively higher than the median. Stock is not overpriced, just higher than the median.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value Ratio is 1.80 and the current P/B Ratio is 2.23. That means that the current ratio is some 24% higher than the 10 year median and is showing a relatively high stock price.

The 4 year median dividend yield is 1.92% and the current dividend yield is 2%. The current yield on a stock price of $12.95 is slightly higher, 4.8%, than the median dividend yield and shows a reasonable stock price.

When I look analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy, and Buy. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. There are few analysts following this stock.

A number of small cap growth funds have this stock. Such funds as Castlerock CDN Growth Companies has 3% of their funds in this stock; Mackenzie Saxon Small Cap-SI have some 3.14% of their funds in this stock and IAP Ecflx Fidelity Canadian Opportunities has some 3.34% of their funds in this stock. (For the last fund, see PDF document.)

One analyst said that this stock is a high risk, but thought the 12 months stock price would be $17 which means a total return of some 31%. He also complains about poor share liquidity. This stock has been reviewed by CanTech and by Byron Berry of Byron Capital in a February 2011 article in CanTech.

Enghouse Systems Limited is a global provider of enterprise software solutions serving a variety of distinct vertical markets. Its strategy is to build a large diverse enterprise software company through strategic acquisitions and managed growth. Its web site is here Enghouse. See my spreadsheet at esl.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Enghouse Systems Ltd

I do not own this stock (TSX-ESL). This stock was also recommended by Keystone as a good Small Cap stock with dividends in 2011.

This company has only been paying dividends since 2008. However between then and 2011 dividends were increased at a rate of 23.9% per year. A dividend increase of 30% has been made for 2012. This is a dividend paying growth stock. It has a very low dividend, currently at 1.9% but a strong increase rate.

Coinciding with the low dividend yield is low Dividend Payout Ratios with 5 year median ratio of 39% for earnings and 19% for cash flow. The DPR for 2011 are even lower at 29% and 12%, respectively for earnings and cash flow.

Total Return over the past 5 and 10 years is 5.9% and 9.1% per year, respectively. The dividends portion of this return is 1.23% and 0.66% per year, respectively. Dividends made up 21% and 7% of the total return on this stock. (Note that dividends have been paid only for last 4 years, so this affects the 10 year dividend figures.)

On other growth fronts, 10 year figures are generally better than the 5 year figures. Revenue per share is up 15% and 19% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings per share are up 9.5% and 6.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per share is up 8% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Book Value per shares is probably the lowest growth with growth at 3.7% and 6.3% per year over past 5 and 10 years.

Return on Equity is quite good for 2011 at 12.5%; however the 5 year median growth at 5.8% is low. ROE on comprehensive income is confirms the ROE on net income coming is at 13.5% for 2011 and is also low for the 5 year median at just 5.5%.

As with a number of dividend paying small caps, this stock has a strong balance sheet. Debt ratios are very good with a current Liquidity Ratio of 2.24 and a current Debt Ratio of 3.02. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good, currently at 1.50 and 0.50.

This stock is both a small cap and a tech stock, so it is risky. However, if you can stand the risk you could possibly do well with dividend growth and capital gain growth over the long term.

Enghouse Systems Limited is a global provider of enterprise software solutions serving a variety of distinct vertical markets. Its strategy is to build a large diverse enterprise software company through strategic acquisitions and managed growth. Its web site is here Enghouse. See my spreadsheet at esl.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Automodular Corp 2

And the Dividends Roll In. See comments blog.

I own this stock (TSX-AM). This stock was recommended by Keystone as a good Small Cap stock with dividends in 2011. I bought a couple of hundred shares with the dividends in my TFSA account because of the current lower price. I have lost some 25% on my original purchase. However, markets are down.

When I look at insider trading, I find a bit of insider buying and a bit of insider selling with a net of insider selling. The Bank of Nova Scotia is still their principal banker but no longer an insider. They have been selling off their holdings which are down some 46% since January 2012. Also, the ex-CEO Michael Blair has been selling shares and they are down some 19% since January 2012.

However, large insider holders of Richard Peter McLaughlin, a Director and Bissett Investment Management of Franklin Templeton Investments Corp. have maintained their share holdings. According to institutional holding information, there were 4 institutions holding 49% of the outstanding shares in May 2012 and now there are 6 institutions holding 75% of the shares.

The institutional information says that there were 3 sellers of some 14% of their shares over the past 3 months. We know that the Bank of Nova Scotia has been heavily selling as they are no longer considered an insider. The thing we do know is that an awful lot of the shares are owned by institutions and insiders. Still there seems to be thousands of these shares traded daily. I think there is enough volume for small retail buyers.

The Price/Earnings Ratios on this stock are currently very low. The 5 year median low and high P/E ratios are 1.18 and 3.52. The current P/E ratio is 2.77 which is just above the median P/E Ratio. So, stock price is probably relatively reasonable at $1.69. However, these are very low P/E Ratios.

I get a Graham Price of $4.93. The current Price/Graham Price Ratio is very low at 0.34. However, all the P/GP Ratios are below 1.00 and the even the high P/GP does not reach 1.00 as it is 0.94. (All stock prices are below Graham price if ratio is below 1.00.) The low, median and high P/GPs are 0.28, 0.59 and 0.94. By this measure, the stock price is low.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value ratio is 0.97 and the current ratio is 0.96 or 98% of the 10 year median. This shows a good stock price. However, the stock price is also below the book value, which also denotes very good value.

It is hard to get a fix on the dividend yield as dividends have been erratic to say the least. However, most of the time when the dividends were paid, the median range was around 6 and 7%. The current dividend yield of 14% is very high and would suggest a good stock price.

There are no analysts really following this stock. However, technical analysis shows a support line at $.90 and a resistance line at $2.20. Analysts that talk about this stock say it is speculative and has little volume. There is a video on this company at Investment Pitch dated June 2011. There is a later e-research report dated November 2011.

The eResearch “Stock Potential Reports” are written on companies that eResearch believes have interesting prospects, are smaller in size and, therefore, have little or no following on the Street, and which would benefit from the exposure that eResearch can provide through the dissemination of the reports via our extensive electronic distribution network.

I personally expect long term capital gains and good dividends from this stock. However, it is a speculative buy. I am using it to soak up extra bits of money in my TFSA account.

Automodular Corporation is a supplier of sub-assembly, sequencing and transportation services to the automotive industry - Ford's Oakville Assembly Plant and the renewable energy industry with Vestas Nacelles A/S. Its web site is here Automodular. See my spreadsheet at am.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Automodular Corp

I own this stock (TSX-AM). This stock was recommended by Keystone as a good Small Cap stock with dividends in 2011. Until recently this stock was going up. However, it has fallen quite steeply lately, especially this May.

This is good and bad. I could buy a couple of hundred shares with the dividends in my TFSA account because of the lower price. I have lost some 25% on my original purchase. But the dividend yield is current at 14.5%. The dividend is high mostly because they just raised it some 20%. With the increase in dividends, the payout ratio is around 40% of earnings.

Dividends on this company have been erratic. They pay them when they can, so they have both increased and decreased or cancelled dividends in the past. They have also given out special dividends.

Total returns over the past 5 and 10 years have not been great. This company was hurt by the 2000 bear market and was just recovering when it was hit by the 2008 bear market. Total returns over the past 5 years were 7.9% per year with dividend income at 8.2% per year. (There would be a small capital loss.) 10 year total returns are a negative 2.3% per year with dividend income at 4.9% per year.

The company paid no dividends between 2004 and 2008. They restarted them for a couple of quarters in 2008 and then cancelled them. Dividends were restarted again for 2011.

This company has done better over the past 5 years than it has over the past 10 years. They used to have only one customer which was Ford's Oakville Assembly Plant. In September 2011 they picked up another customer of Vestas Nacelles A/S. Vestas Nacelles A/S is a subsidiary of the publicly traded Danish company Vestas Wind Systems A/S, a global leader in the wind industry. See G&M article.

Revenues per share were flat over the past 10 years. It is up a healthy 8.7% per year over the past 5 years. Total revenues are up 6.8% and 4.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings per share are up 54% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per share is up 11.4% and 3.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Book Value is flat over the past 5 years and is down 5% per year over the past 10 years. Book Value took a big hit in 2008 and is making a recovery.

The Return on Equity for 2011 is great at 36.8%. The 5 year median ROE is much lower at just 7.1%. However, the ROE on net income is confirmed by the ROE of comprehensive income. ROE on comprehensive income is 36.6% for 2011.

One of the solid things about this stock is the debt ratios. The current Liquidity Ratio is a great 3.34. The current Debt Ratio is even higher at 4.30. It also has great Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 1.30 and 0.30. This is what you call a strong balance sheet. Companies with strong balance sheets can survive punishing recessions. The stock price is current at $1.69 and they have $.70 in cash for each share outstanding.

I still like this company. I recently purchased some more of it with dividends that were in my TFSA.

Automodular Corporation is a supplier of sub-assembly, sequencing and transportation services to the automotive industry - Ford's Oakville Assembly Plant and the renewable energy industry with Vestas Nacelles A/S. Its web site is here Automodular. See my spreadsheet at am.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.

Monday, June 4, 2012

Thomson Reuters Corp 2

Why are we so fascinated with retirement? See comments blog.

I own this stock of Thomson Reuters Corp (TSX-TRI, NYSE-TRI). I have owned this stock in my trading account since 1985. I have made a return of some 6.83% per year with 3.94% dividend return and 2.89% capital gain. Not a great showing.

The insider trading reports shows a bit of insider buying and a bit of insider selling with net insider buying. This tells us nothing. Also, insiders not only have options, but Deferred Share units and Restricted Share Units. There are lots of these outstanding and insiders have more of them than shares. This includes Directors, but Directors only have Deferred Share Units rather than options. (For information on these, see my StockOptions.com for Deferred Stock Units and Restricted Stock units.)

When I look for information on institutional holders, I find separate information for TSX-TRI and NYSE-TRI. For Canada, the information is 419 institutions holding 38% of the shares and US, I find 269 holding 33% of the shares. Since both these are purported to be for June 4, 2012, it would seems quite a lot of these shares are held by institutions.

It is hard to say if there is any overlap in these figures. In any event, for Canada, over the last 3 months there has been a bit of net selling to the tune of 0.3% and for the US, over the past 5 months there has been net selling to the tune of 1.3%. There has been lots of selling and buying and the net results are small. So this information is rather neutral also.

I find that the 5 year median low and high Price/Earnings Ratios on this stock to be, in CDN$, 22.22 and 30.69. The 5 year median low and high P/E Ratios on this stock in US$ is close at 22.05 and 27.72. In CDN$ the current P/E Ratio is 13.6 and in US$ 13.1. For both the current P/E is rather low and shows a cheap stock price.

I get a Graham price of $30.64 CDN$. The low median and high Price/Graham price Ratios are 1.38, 1.57 and 1.75. (Ratios above 1.00 show a higher stock price than Graham price and ratios below 1.00 show a stock price lower than the Graham Price.) The current ratio of 0.92 is lower than the low P/GP Ratio and therefore shows a cheap stock price.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value Ratio of 1.99. The current P/B Ratio of 1.40 is only 70% of the 10 year ratio and shows a cheap current price. (When the current is less than 80% of the 10 year ratio, you have a cheap stock price.)

The current dividend yield of 4.65 is some33% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield of 3.5% and this also shows a cheap current stock price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find a lot of analysts following this stock. Their recommendations are Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform. The vast majority is a Hold and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The consensus 12 months stock price is $30.30 US$ and this implies an 18.4% total return. They thought that the stock was underpriced and the current stock price represented a good entry point.

In May a number of analysts increased their 12 months stock price but kept their recommendations of either Hold or Buy. One analyst with a Hold recommendation thought the stock price was high and that because Thomson Reuters’ business is centered on the financial industry, the company will continue to shrink along with the financial world.

Another with a Hold recommendation thought that their industry was consolidating and that the stock price will not go up anytime soon. He thought the dividend as safe. (Some analysts thought that the dividend will go up in 2012 and 2013.)

Because earnings loss was caused by Goodwill write off, a number of analysts have disregarded this and given positive earnings for 2011. I have republished my spreadsheet today showing this information. For the first quarter, the EPS was in the high part of the estimated EPS range.

I have not changed my mind on this stock and I will continue to hold on to my shares in the company. I had bought it for its foreign exposure and therefore for diversification. The need has not gone away and there is no similar company that I like better than this one. As you can see from above, I try to find out why analysts give their various stock recommendations. My analysis shows that the stock is relatively cheap, but different people look at things differently, of course. It is certainly true that the stock has not done well lately, but a lot of stocks are in this position.

Thomson Reuters Corp is the leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. They combine industry expertise with innovative technology to deliver critical information to leading decision-makers. Through more than 50,000 people in over 100 countries, they deliver this must-have insight to the financial, legal, tax and accounting, healthcare and science and media markets, powered by the world’s most trusted news organization. They derive the majority of our revenues from selling electronic content and services to professionals, primarily on a subscription basis. Thomson and Reuters amalgamated in 2008. Its web site is here Thomson Reuters. See my spreadsheet at tri.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.