Monday, March 31, 2014

TransCanada Corp

On my other blog I am today writing about CPP continue...

I own this stock of TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP). I bought the stock in 2000 at an opportune time. The company had been cutting their dividend payments in order to re-organize and get the company into shape for long term profitability. This company's stock fell hard because of this. People who depend on dividends for their income can be an unforgiving lot, and get really upset at company when a trusted company cuts dividends.

This stock has a good dividend with a moderate growth. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.1% and the current dividend yield is 3.8%. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is at 4.8% and 5.36% per year. This stock is considered to be a dividend growth stock.

The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratios are 76.5% for Earnings per Share and 33% for Cash Flow per Share. For 2013 the DPRs were 75% for EPS and 32% for CFPS. The DPR for 2014 are expected to be similar.

I bought this stock in 2000, 2006 and 2013. My total return is at 11.73% with 6.72% from capital gains and 5.01% from dividends. The total return on this stock over the past 5 and 10 years is at 11.03% and 9.45% per year. The dividend portion of this return was 4.21% and 4.07% per year. The capital gain portion of this total return was at 6.82% and 5.38% per year. What I look for in a utility stock is an 8% per year total return with around 4% from capital gains and around 4% from dividends.

The outstanding shares have grown at the rate of 2.8% and 3.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have grown because of stock options and DRIP. Growth in CFPS is fine, but there is no or little growth in Revenue per Share and EPS.

RPS has declined by 2.3% per year over the past 5 years and grown by 1.2% per year over the 10 years. Revenue is a bit better with growth of 0.4/% and 5.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The EPS has declined by 0.8% per year over the past 5 years and has grown by 3.2% per year over the past 10 years. Net Income is up by 5.8% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Comprehensive Income is up by 13.2% and 12.7% per year over the past 5 and 7 years.

CFPS is up by 3.1% and 4.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow is up by 5.8% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The Return on Equity has not been at or above 10% over the past 5 years. The ROE for 2013 was 9.5%, the highest it has been over the past 5 years. The 5 year median ROE was at 8.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income was higher at 13.4%. The 5 year median ROE was 8.6%.

The Liquidity Ratio is 0.59. This ratio with the cash flow less dividends is 1.03. If you exclude the current portion of long term debt, the ratio is 0.72 and if you add in cash flow less dividends you get 1.26. As with a lot of utilities, this company depends on cash flow to pay current liabilities.

The Debt Ratio is quite good at 1.60. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are rather typical for a utility at 2.68 and 1.68, respectively.

This company has performed as expected. I am getting a nice dividend with yearly increases. For my purchase in 2000 which occurred some 14 years ago, I am making a yield of 15.8% on my original purchase price. For the stock I bought in 2006, some 8 years ago, I am making around a 5.7% yield on my original purchase price. See my spreadsheet at trp.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, April 1, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

TransCanada is a leader in energy infrastructure. Their network of pipeline taps into virtually all major gas supply basins in North America. TransCanada is one of the continent's largest providers of gas storage and related services. It is a growing independent power producer. Its web site is here TransCanada.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, March 28, 2014

AltaGas Ltd 2

On my other blog I am today writing about Charities and Coercion continue...

I own this stock of AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF). When I bought this stock in 2009 it was on many dividend growth stock lists. In 2009, I saw that this stock also had good growth in Revenues, Earnings, Dividends, and Stock Prices over the last 5 and 10 years. The stock had a fairly strong balance sheet. I took a small position in this stock, and planned to wait and see how things go with this stock before buying more. I bought more in 2010 and 2012.

The insider trading report says that there was some $6.3M of insider selling over the past year and no insider buying. Insider selling was by CEO, CFO, Officers and Directors. Not only do insiders have stock options, but they have other sorts of stock option like vehicles called Rights Performance Units, Rights Restricted Units and Subscription Rights.

In 2013, outstanding shares were increased by 806,093 shares with a book value of $18.9M. This number of shares would be worth $32.9M at the end of 2013. This number of shares is less than 1% of the outstanding shares at the end of 2013.

There is insider ownership with the biggest being for the CEO and Chairman of the Board who has shares worth around $55.5M. The CFO has shares worth around 1.2M and an officer has shares worth around 1.5M.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.83, 24.33 and 26.82. The current P/E Ratio is 26.15 based on a stock price of $44.98 and 2014 earnings estimate of $1.72. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is within a reasonable range, although towards to high end of that range.

I get a Graham price of $26.40. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham price Ratios are 1.10, 1.27 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.70. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.07. The current P/B Ratio is 2.50 a value some 20% higher and based on a Book Value per Share of $18.00 and a stock price of $44.98. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.

I do not think that doing a stock price test on dividend yield would be a valid one as dividend yields moved considerably higher when this company became an income trust and now have moved lower because it is a corporation.

If you look at the 10 year Price/CFPS Ratio, it is 9.45. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.25 based on 2014 estimates of CFPS of $4.00 and a stock price of $44.98. The current P/CF Ratio is some 19% above the 10 year median P/CF Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is at the very top of the reasonable stock price range.

The only test to suggest that the stock price might be reasonable is the Price/Sales Ratios. The 10 year P/S Ratio is 1.13 and the current P/S Ratio is 1.17 based on current outstanding shares and 2014 sales estimates of $3,038.5M. These ratios are close and therefore this stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 months consensus stock price is $45.00. This implies a total return of $3.45% with 3.40% from dividends and .04% from capital gains.

There is an interesting article in the Calgary Herald that talks about how this company went from zero to an $8B company in 20 years. There is a recent article at Market Watch that talks about the good year this company had in 2013. There is al an article in the Chronicle Herald which talks about work being started on the long-anticipated Alton natural gas storage project in Colchester County beginning in 2014.

It would seem like this stock is currently probably in the overbought category. I will keep my stock as I do not sell just because a stock gets overpriced. However, now may just not be the right time to buy. See my spreadsheet at ala.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, March 27, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

AltaGas operates physical assets and provides essential services to customers who produce and consume natural gas and power. Their gas business provides gathering, processing, transportation, storage and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids. Their power business generates and delivers power in Alberta and British Columbia and is developing a significant portfolio of renewable power projects. Its web site is here AltaGas.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, March 27, 2014

AltaGas Ltd

I own this stock of AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF). When I bought this stock in 2009 it was on many dividend growth stock lists. In 2009, I saw that this stock also had good growth in Revenues, Earnings, Dividends, and Stock Prices over the last 5 and 10 years. The stock had a fairly strong balance sheet. I took a small position in this stock, and planned to wait and see how things go with this stock before buying more. I bought more in 2010 and 2012.

This company started to pay dividends in 2001. In 2004 it became an income trust and increased their dividends by over 220%. In 2010, the company became a corporation and decreased the dividends by almost 40%. Since then the company has increased their dividends again.

If you look at the 5 and 10 years change in dividends, dividends are down by 7.8% per year over the past 5 years, however, they are up by 16.7% per year over the past 10 years. Dividend increases have varied greatly since dividends have started. The last increase was in 2013 and it was for 2%. However, dividends were raised twice in 2013 and the dividends for 2013 were greater than dividends for 2012 by 7.2%.

A number of old income trusts decreased their dividends when they became corporations. Payout Ratios are different for income trusts and corporations. For corporations the Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings is important, whereas for income trusts Dividend Payout Ratios for distributable income is important. For this company the DPR for earnings was over 100% until 2013 when it was at 98%.

The DPR for cash flow is fine at 45% for 2013 and with a 5 year median of 58%. Analysts are still looking at and calculating Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) and looking at the payout based on these values. The DPR for FFO for 2013 was 43% and for AFFO for 2013 was 50%.

I have done very well on this stock with my total return at 30.23% per year with 6.92% from dividends and 23.31% from capital gains. It was expected that old income trust's dividend yields would go down, probably to 4 to 5% level. This would occur because of dividend decreases and stock price increases. The dividend yield has gone down to the 3 to 4% range for this stock.

The 5 and 10 year total return on this stock is 24.92% and 12.28% per year. The dividend portion of this total return is at 5.86% and 6.41% per year. The capital gains portion of this total return is at 19.06% and 6.87% per year. I personally do not expect to get such good returns on this stock in the future. First, the dividend yield is lower and secondly, the capital gains made on the switch from income trust to corporation will not occur again.

Outstanding shares have increased by 11% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options DRIP and Share Issues. For this company revenue, earnings and cash flow were all hit in 2009 and had lower values than for 2008. Revenues, earnings and cash flow have gone up for the company quite well, but the important values are per share values and these have not done that well. The 5 year growth is not as good as the 10 year growth.

Revenue is up by 2.4% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue per Share is down by 8% per year over the past 5 years and is only up by 2% per year over the past 10 years. After revenues declined in 2009 they have been recovering, a bit uneven, but they are recovering. Revenue per Share was up some 21% in 2013.

Net Income is up by 5% and 18.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, but EPS is down by 13.8% over the past 5 years and up by 7.2% per year over the past 10 years. Earnings declined in 2009 and hit their low point in 2011 and since then they have been recovering. EPS is up by 43% in 2013.

The Cash Flow has increased by 13% and 16% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has increased by 1.6% and 5.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. After a decline in 2009, cash flows hit a low in 2010 and have since been recovering. Cash Flow per Share was up some 35% in 2013.

The Return on Equity was over 10% from 2003 to 2009 and has been under 10% since then. The ROE for 2013 was just 7.4%. However, the ROE on comprehensive income was 12% in 2013 so this is a good sign.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is at 0.85. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio becomes 1.11. If you take off the current portion of the long term debt, the ratio is 1.20 and if you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio is 1.56. This stock is really a utility and they tend to count on cash flow to bolster their Liquidity Ratios.

The Debt Ratio is quite good at 1.64 for 2013. This ratio has always been good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 2.57 and 1.57 are normal for this sort of company.

I am pleased with my investment in this company. I will not be buying any more for the simple fact I have enough of this stock. I do not let any stock get a too high of percentage of my portfolio. See my spreadsheet at ala.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, March 28, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

AltaGas operates physical assets and provides essential services to customers who produce and consume natural gas and power. Their gas business provides gathering, processing, transportation, storage and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids. Their power business generates and delivers power in Alberta and British Columbia and is developing a significant portfolio of renewable power projects. Its web site is here AltaGas.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Richelieu Hardware Ltd 2

On my other blog I am today writing about annuities and bonds continue...

I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommend by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2002and increases are not consistent. I would consider this stock to be a dividend paying growth stock. In 2009, I thought I would add to what I had in this stock.

When I look at insider trading for the past year I find $5.7M of insider selling and $5.7M of net insider selling. There is a minor amount of insider buying. In the past year the CEO sold shares worth around $4.7M. The CEO has shares currently worth around $69.5M. An officer has shares worth around $1.4M and a director has shares worth around $3.7M. So there is some insider ownership.

Insiders have stock options and directors also have option like vehicles called Deferred Stock Units and Subscription Rights Units. In 2013 outstanding shares were increased by under just 125,000 shares with a book value of $3M and this number of shares would have been worth around $5.6M at the end of 2013.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.53, 14.62 and 16.69. (The 10 year corresponding ratios are a bit higher.) The current P/E Ratio is 18.46 based on a stock price of $47.07and 2014 EPS estimates of $2.55. This stock test suggests that the current stock price is high.

I get a Graham Price of $28.75. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.16, 1.29 and 1.43. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.64. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is high.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.45. The current P/B Ratio is 3.27 a value some 33% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $$47.07 and a book Value of $4.27. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.53%. The current dividend yield is 1.19%, a value some 22% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high. However, the historical average is around 1.38% a lower yield, a value only 14% higher than the current dividend yield. This is the only stock price test that suggests that the current price could be reasonable, if a bit on the high side.

There is an interesting article in the Financial Post about Quebec not wanting their companies to be taken over, especially by foreigners. The article names some 8 companies that could possibly be taken over and this company called by its French name of Quincaillerie Richelieu was one of the companies mentioned. The Dividend Blogger mentions this company and its recent dividend increase. The web site of The Street gave this stock a positive view late last year.

When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find only two. Both the recommendations are a Buy. The 12 month stock consensus is $50.00. This implies a total return of 7.41% with 6.22% from capital gains and $1.19% from dividends.

By most of my tests this stock is shown to be in the overbought category. See my spreadsheet at rch.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, March 25, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

This company is a distributor, importer and manufacturer of specialty hardware and complementary products. Its products are kitchen and bathroom cabinets, furniture, and window and door. It is also involved with residential and commercial woodworking industry. It has a large customer base of hardware retailers. This stock is widely held. Its web site is here Richelieu.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Richelieu Hardware Ltd

I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommend by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2002and increases are not consistent. This stock would be considered to be a dividend paying growth stock. In 2009, I thought I would add to what I had in this stock. This stock has been much recommended by MPL Communications.

Dividend increases have not been consistent on this stock. Dividends have not been raised every year but increases occurred in most years. The most recent dividend increases are lower than they have been in the past. The most recent increase was for 2014 and the increase was for 7.7%.

I paid more for the stock I bought in 2007 than I did for the stock I bought in 2009. For the stock bought in 2007, my yield on my initial purchase at 7 years ago is 2.3%. For the stock I bought in 2009, my yield on my initial purchase at 5 years ago is 3.1%.

I have made a total return of 20.26% per year on this stock. Of this total return 18.64% per year is from capital gains. Only 1.62% per year is from dividends. Dividend yields are rather low with the 5 year median dividend yield at 1.53% and the current dividend at just 1.19%. The dividend increases have been good with the 5 and 10 year dividend growth at 10.2% and 11.2% per year.

The total return on this stock over the past 5 and 10 years is at 17.46% and 9.06% per year. The capital gains portion of this total return is at 15.91% and 7.92% per year. The dividend portion of this total return is at 1.55% and 1.15% per year.

The outstanding shares have decreased slightly over the past 5 and 10 years, with the decline in outstanding shares at 1.8% and 1.4% per year. Shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenues, earnings and cash flows have increased nicely over the past 5 and 10 years.

Revenue per Share is up by 7.8% and 9.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 7.3% and 8.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is up by 6.2% and 9.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

I have Return on Equity figures going back to 1993 and for all the years I have the ROE has been over 10%. The ROE for 2013 was 13.1%. The 5 year median ROE is at 12.2%. The ROE on comprehensive income has been somewhat similar to the ROE on net income. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2013 is 17.3% and the 5 year median ROE is 15%.

The debt ratios are all very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 4.51. The Debt Ratio is 5.64. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.22 and 0.22. The CEO has shares worth around $65.9M which is around 7% of the outstanding shares. This could be the reason why the debt ratios are so good.

I bought this stock for diversification and because it is a dividend growth stock. It is more of a growth stock than a dividend stock as the dividend yield is low. See my spreadsheet at rch.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, March 26 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

This company is a distributor, importer and manufacturer of specialty hardware and complementary products. Its products are kitchen and bathroom cabinets, furniture, and window and door. It is also involved with residential and commercial woodworking industry. It has a large customer base of hardware retailers. This stock is widely held. Its web site is here Richelieu.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, March 24, 2014

TransAlta Corp. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about being rich without being wealthy continue...

I own this stock of TransAlta Corp. (TSX-TA, NYSE-TAC). I first bought this stock in 1987. It was a utility stock and utility stocks were considered to be good investments at the time I bought this stock. The stock is selling at a price slightly less than what I paid in 1987. I have really only made dividend income on this stock. I have made a return of 6.75% per year.

When I look at insider trading, I find no insider selling and $0.5M of insider buying. A lot of this buying seemed to have occurred after TransAlta cut their dividends and the stock dropped down in price. This is heartening. Half of this insider buying was by the CEO, but buying is also by CFO, officers and directors.

Outstanding shares were not increased for stock options in 2013 and the increases in shares for stock options in 2012 were rather modest at 100,000 with a book value of $1M. Not only is there outstanding stock options, but there are other option like vehicles called Performance Share Ownership Plan, Performance Share Units, Restricted Share Units and Deferred Share Units.

There is only modest insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $1.2M, the CFO having shares worth around $0.7M and the Chairman of the Board having shares worth around $250,000.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.85, 16.29 and 17.74. The P/E Ratios having become lower over the past 5 years. The 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios were 17.53, 20.53 and 23.06. The current P/E Ratio is 24.52 based on a stock price of $12.75 and 2014 earnings estimates of $0.52. This stock test suggests that the stock price is relatively high.

I get a current Graham Price of $9.63. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.15, 1.38 and 1.64. The current P/GP Ratios is 1.32. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at a median price.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.82. The current P/B Ratio is 1.61 a value some 12% lower. My P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $12.75 and a Book Value per Share of $7.92. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 5.43% and the current dividend yield is 5.65% a value some 4% higher. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. On an historical basis the average dividend yield is around 6% and the median around 5.7%. This stock price test also suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold recommendation. The 12 month consensus stock price is $12.90. This implies a total return of 6.82% with 5.65% from dividends and 1.18% from capital gains.

There is an interview with the CEO of TransAlta. She said that they had to cut dividends to allow the company to grow. This is a 6 minute interview, after some BNN advertising. An article in the G&M covers similar ground. There is a rather disturbing item in the Calgary Herald in which the Alberta Utilities Commission accused TransAlta of manipulating electricity market. The company has deigned this accusation.

I would not currently buy any more of this stock. I do not see a good risk reward level. By my testing the stock price is just reasonable but I think there is considerable risk in this stock. See my spreadsheet at ta.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, March 21, 2013 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

TransAlta is a power generation and wholesale marketing company. TransAlta maintains a low-to-moderate risk profile by operating a highly contracted portfolio of assets in Canada, the United States and Australia. TransAlta's focus is to efficiently operate our biomass, geothermal, wind, hydro, natural gas and coal facilities in order to provide our customers with a reliable, low-cost source of power. Its web site is here TransAlta.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, March 21, 2014

TransAlta Corp.

On my other blog I am today writing about Stock Prices continue...

I own this stock of TransAlta Corp. (TSX-TA, NYSE-TAC). I first bought this stock in 1987. It was a utility stock and utility stocks were considered to be good investments at the time I bought this stock. The stock is selling at a price slightly less than what I paid in 1987. I have really only made dividend income on this stock. I have made a return of 6.75% per year.

Dividend rose from the time I bought this stock until 2014. However, in 2014 they cut their dividend by almost 38%. Prior to the cut in 2014, dividends increased rather modestly at around 1.6% per year. Dividend increases were erratic and there were lots of years with no dividend increases.

The total return on this stock has not been good over the last 5 and 10 years. The 5 year return to date is a loss of 5.56% per year with a capital loss of 11.5% per year and dividends of 5.93 per year. The 10 year total return was at 3.43% per year with a capital loss of 3.42% per year and dividends of 6.85% per year. Share fell almost 15% on March 18 due to the cut in dividends.

Shares in this company have grown at 5.9% and 3.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have grown due to Stock Options, DRIP and Share Issues. There has been no growth in revenue, earnings or cash flow for the stock over the past 5 and 10 years.

Revenue per Share is done by 11.2% and 4.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running averages show a lower decline with the Revenue per Share down by 5.3% and 0% over the past 5 and 10 years.

Since there was an earnings loss in 2013 there is no growth over the past 5 and 10 years. Using the 5 year running averages, EPS is down by 41% and 26% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Cash Flow per Share is down by 8.9% and 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There is a lower decline if you look at 5 year running averages which give a decline of 2.8% and 0.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The problem is that this company has done poorly over the past 5 years.

The Return on Equity has never been high and it has only broken above 10% once in the last 10 years and only twice over the past 15 years. The 5 year median ROE is 5.3%. There is no ROE for 2013 as the company did not make a profit. However, there was a positive comprehensive income. The ROE for comprehensive income for 2013 was very low at just 3.9%. The comprehensive income was negative in 2012 as was the EPS and Net Income.

One of the things that the company wanted to do was strengthen its balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio has always been low and for 2013 it was just 0.88. However, if you add in cash flow after dividends, this ratio becomes 1.40. Also, if you exclude 2013's portion of the long term debt, the ratio is 1.16 and if you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio is now 1.86.

The Debt Ratio has been good with a 2013 value of 1.54 and a 5 year median of 1.55. While the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are not low, they are good for a utility stock. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios were at 2.86 and 1.76 for 2013.

I had viewed this stock as a solid, but unspectacular stock. Perhaps I was wrong on this. I expected a return of around 8% per year on utility stocks. Until recently, this stock met that requirement over the long term. See my spreadsheet at ta.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, March 24, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

TransAlta is a power generation and wholesale marketing company. TransAlta maintains a low-to-moderate risk profile by operating a highly contracted portfolio of assets in Canada, the United States and Australia. TransAlta's focus is to efficiently operate our biomass, geothermal, wind, hydro, natural gas and coal facilities in order to provide our customers with a reliable, low-cost source of power. Its web site is here TransAlta.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

RioCan Real Estate 2

I own this stock of RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN), OTC-RIOCF). In 1998, I bought this stock because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. It was a stock covered and recommended by MPL Communications in their Income Trust coverage. I bought more of this stock in 2000, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014. I have some of this stock in my Trading, Pension and RRSP accounts.

When I look at insider trading, I find some 12.3M of insider selling and $12M of net insider selling. There is some $0.3M of insider buying. There are options for insiders and options and Restricted Equity Units for Directors. There is some insider ownership with the CEO having trust units worth around $9.9M and the Chairman having trust units worth around $4.2M.

In 2013, outstanding shares were increased by 0.476M shares with a book value of $8M. This number of shares would be worth $11.9M at the end of 2013. In 2012 outstanding shares were increased by 1.319M shares with a book value of $24M. This number of shares would be worth $32.7M by the end of 2012.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.28, 11.59 and 12.89. The current P/E Ratio is 13.13 based on a stock price of $26.26 and 2014 EPS of $2.00. The 5 year low, median and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 15.91, 17.93 and 19.94. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 17.74 based on a stock price of $26.26 and 2014 AFFO of $1.48.

The current P/E Ratio says that the stock price is high. The current P/AFFO Ratio of 17.74 says that the current stock price is around the median level and therefore reasonable. AFFO (Adjusted Funds from Operations) is a metric that is currently being used by a lot of analyst to value REITs.

If I used AFFO in the calculation for the Graham Price, I get a Graham Price of $27.68. The 8 year low, median and high median Price/GP Ratios are 0.98, 1.14 and 1.45. The current P/BP Ratio is 0.95 based on a stock price of $26.26. This stock price test says that the stock is on the cheap side. If I used EPS and FFO in the Graham Price calculation, the conclusion is pretty much the same.

The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 5.61%. The current Dividend Yield is 5.37% a value some 4% lower. On this test it is desirable that the current Dividend Yield is higher than the 5 year median Dividend Yield. However, since it is just 4% lower, the test says that the stock price is reasonable, but a little on the high side.

Dividend Yields on this stock was much higher in the past. However I calculate a median or average historical Dividend Yield I get ones that are 28% to 37% higher than the current Dividend Yield. On an historical basis, it would appear that the current stock price is high. On the other hand we are now in an era of very low interest rates.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $28.30. This implies total returns of $13.14% with 5.37% from distributions and 7.77% from capital gains.

There is an interesting article in Toronto Life about the CEO of this, company Edward Sonshine saying he wants to get into rental housing, especially in Toronto. Part of the reason I bought RioCan was because they did not have any rental housing. Another interesting article on RioCan says that the company is proceeding with a development in Kensington Market in Toronto without Walmart. The neighbor did not want Walmart, so development will be retail and offices. For my last reference, I have a recent article from Motley Fool on why they like this stock.

I would be cautious about buying this stock currently as the historical Dividend Yields show that the current yield is very low. However, I also have no intention of selling the shares I have in this company. I think that the reason I bought this company, that is for diversification into REITs, is still valid. See my spreadsheet at rei.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, March 19, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

RioCan is Canada's largest real estate investment trust exclusively focused on retail real estate. Their core strategy is to own and manage community-oriented neighbourhood shopping centers anchored by supermarkets, together with a rapidly expanding mix of new format retail centers. RioCan owns interests in 51 centers in the United States located in the Northeastern United States and Texas, managed through its offices in New Jersey and Dallas. Its web site is here RioCan.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

RioCan Real Estate

On my other blog I am today writing about International Exposure continue...

I own this stock of RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN), OTC-RIOCF). In 1998, I bought this stock because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. It was a stock covered and recommended by MPL Communications in their Income Trust coverage. I bought more of this stock in 2000, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014. I have some of this stock in my Trading, Pension and RRSP accounts.

What you want from a REIT is a good dividend yield with long term dividend increases at least at the rate of inflation. This stock has a good dividend yield which is currently at 5.4% and it has a 5 year median dividend yield of 5.6%.

The dividends have increased by 0.7% and 2.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. According to the Bank of Canada, Canada's core inflation rate over the last 5 years is at 1.2% per year and over the past 10 years is 1.5% per year. It would be nice that the increases over the past 5 years were better than inflation, but it is the long term increase that is important. The dividends have increased at 2.1% per year compared to inflation at 1.5% per year. So the dividend increases not ideal, but they are fine.

Because this is a REIT most analysts look at the Distribution Payout Ratios for Funds from Operations (FFO) and from Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The DPR for FFO is at 90.2% for 2013 and for AFFO is at 95.1. What is desirable is a Payout Ratio of 90% or less. For AFFO, the payout ratios are high with a 5 year median at 106%. However, the company is making moves to lower this ratio to 90%.

For my stock purchased 16 years ago in 1998, I am making a yield 12.88% on my original purchase amount. For the stock I bought 14 years ago in 2000, I am making a yield of 16.89% on my original purchase amount. For the stock I bought 8 years ago in 2006, I am making a yield of 6.58% on my original purchase amount.

Investors have done well over the past 5 and 10 years. The total return to date over the past 5 and 10 years is at 12.08% and 10.40% per year, respective. The capital gain portion of this stock is 5.76% and 3.90% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The distribution portion of this return is 6.32% and 6.49% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. My total return is 14.93% per year with 6.06% from capital gains and 8.87% from distributions.

The outstanding shares have increased by 6.5% and 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Because of the increase in outstanding shares, this makes the per share values more important. Both Revenue and Cash Flow have increased nicely, but the increase in Revenue per Share and Cash Flow per Share is rather low or non-existent. The AFFO and FFO have also not increased much.

Revenues are up by 8% and 7.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenues per Share are only up by 1.4% and 2.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow is up by 5.8% and 8.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 0.6% and up by 2.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The FFO has only increased by 1.06% and 2.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. I only have AFFO figures for the past 8 years, so I cannot give a 10 year figures. However, AFFO has increase by 2.5% and 2% per year over the past 5 and 8 years.

The change to the new accounting rules of IFRS seems to have affected both the earnings and book values greatly so the increase in these values over the past 5 and 10 years are perhaps meaningless.

The Return on Equity is fairly good with the 5 year median at 13.8% and the 2013 ROE at 9.8%. The ROE on the comprehensive income is close with the 5 year median ROE at 13.3% and the 2013 ROE at 10.8%.

The Liquidity Ratio has been low for this company for last two years with the 2013 ratio at 0.79. This means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. However, if you add in cash flow after distributions, the 2013 Liquidity Ratio goes to 1.47. This means that they depend on current cash flow to pay current liabilities.

The Debt Ratio is very good and has always been very good. The 2013 Debt Ratio is 2.16. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.86 and 0.86, respectively.

I bought this stock for diversification into REITs and I am by and large pleased with the investment. These are not the best of economic times. We seem to be in a long slow economic recovery and some sectors and companies are struggling. However, I still feel that this is a good long term investment for my portfolio. See my spreadsheet at rei.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, March 20, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

RioCan is Canada's largest real estate investment trust exclusively focused on retail real estate. Their core strategy is to own and manage community-oriented neighbourhood shopping centers anchored by supermarkets, together with a rapidly expanding mix of new format retail centers. RioCan owns interests in 51 centers in the United States located in the Northeastern United States and Texas, managed through its offices in New Jersey and Dallas. Its web site is here RioCan.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Enbridge Inc. 2

I own this stock of Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). I first bought this stock in 2005 and then bought more in 2008 and 2009. This stock was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats list and also on Mike Higgs' list of Canadian Dividend Growth stocks. Enbridge is considered to be a low risk stock.

Over the past year in insider trading there was some $45M of insider selling. There was no insider buying. Insiders have lots and lots of priced options. They also have option like vehicles called Performance Units. The CEO has shares worth around $7M, the CFO has shares worth around $14M and the Chairmen of the Board has shares worth around $1.5M.

In 2013 outstanding shares were increased by 5M shares with a book value of $69M. At the end of 2013, 5M shares would have a value of $232M. The year 2012 was not much different when outstanding shares were increased by 6M shares with a book value of $78M. At the end of 2012, 6M shares would have been worth $258M. I am just trying to get a handle on how the company is affected by options.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 20.98, 25.14 and 29.30. These are rather high and higher than the 10 year values of 17.93, 20.36 and 22.77. The current P/E Ratio is 25.94 based on a stock price of $49.03 and 2014 earnings of $1.89. If you compare this P/E Ratio to the 5 year median ratio, it is around the median price, but compared to the 10 year P/E Ratios, the P/E Ratio is high.

I get a Graham Price of $21.94. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.40, 1.59 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.23. This stock test says that the stock price is rather high.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value Ratio of 2.79 and a current P/B Ratio of 4.33. The current P/B Ratio is some 55% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio. The current P/B Ratio is based on a BVPS price of $11.32 and a current stock price of $49.03. This stock price test says that the stock price is rather high.

I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 3% and a current dividend yield of 2.86% based on a dividend of $1.40 and a stock price $49.03. Ideally, you want the current dividend yield to be higher than the 5 year median dividend yield. However, the current yield is only 4.8% lower than the 5 year median dividend yield and this suggests that the current stock price is reasonable.

I have historical dividend yields going back to 1994. However you calculate the historical median or average dividend yield it is higher than the current yield by 7% to 28%. It is only in the last 2 years that the median dividend yield went below 3%. By the historical dividend yield testing the current stock price is somewhat high to quite high.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. However, the vast majority of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus price target price is $53.10. This target price suggests a total return of 11.16% with 2.86% from dividends and 8.30% from capital gains.

The latest news for Enbridge is the replace of 46 year old pipeline running from Edmonton to Superior, Wisconsin. The Motley Fool comments on the fact that this company had a quarterly loss in the fourth quarter of 2013. They called it a quarterly hiccup.

I think that his stock is still priced rather high. See my spreadsheet at enb.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, March 13, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Enbridge is focused on three core businesses of crude oil and liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas distribution. They operate in Canada and US. Its web site is here Enbridge.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Sorry no Blog on Friday

I am sorry there was no blog on Friday. I should be back on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Enbridge Inc.

On my other blog I am today I am writing about the fact that I would not have bought any mutual funds if I knew then what I know now. continue...

I own this stock of Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). I first bought this stock in 2005 and then bought more in 2008 and 2009. This stock was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats list and also on Mike Higgs' list of Canadian Dividend Growth stocks. Enbridge is considered to be a low risk stock.

This is a dividend growth stock with good dividends and good dividend growth. The current dividend is 2.85% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 3%. Dividends have grown at the rate of 13.8% and 11.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2014 and it was an 11.1%.

The dividend payout ratios are fine. The 5 year median DPR for earnings is 75.4%. The 5 year median DPR for cash flow is 31%. The DPR for 2013 for earnings was 229% as earnings were low. Low earnings also occurred in 2012. The DPR for earnings is expected to be 74% for 2014.

The DPR for 2013 for cash flow was 28%. The DPR for Funds from Operations was 66% and the 2013 DPR for FFO was 71%. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations for 2013 was 63%.

The 5 and 10 year total return is 18.50% and 15.88% per year. The capital gain portion of this return is at 15.06% and 12.63% per year. The dividend portion of this return is at 3.44% and 3.25% per year. I bought this stock in 2005, 2008 and 2009. My total return is 18.45% per year with 3.51% per year from dividends and 14.94% from capital gain.

Outstanding shares have increased by 2.2% and 2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The revenue, adjusted EPS and cash flow have all gone up nicely over the past 5 and 10 years. Both EPS and net income has gone down, but comprehensive income has gone up. Analysts expect both net income and EPS will go up nicely for 2014 and 2015.

The Revenue per Share has increased by 12.9% and 18.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Adjusted EPS has gone up by 13.6% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has gone up by 19.2% and 12.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Comprehensive income has gone up by 4.7% and 18.5% per year over the past 5 and 8 years.

Both EPS and net income reach a high point in 2008 and 2009 and have been going down since that time. For both EPS and net income analysts expect that the company will do better in 2014 and 2015. For both EPS and net income, the 5 year running averages have increased, but the increase for the last 5 years is much lower than for the last 10 years.

EPS is down by 21% and 5.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, but up by 2% and 5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using 5 year running averages. Net Income was down by 17.9% and 3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, but up by 5.5% and 8.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years using 5 year running averages.

The Return on Equity has been above 10% until the last two years. In 2013 it was 2.7% and the 5 year median ROE is 10.9%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2013 is 22% and the 5 year median is 10.9%.

As it seems with a lot of utilities, the Liquidity Ratio is low and the company depends on cash flow for current items. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.65 and even with the cash flow after dividends it is only 0.86. When this ratio is below 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If you take away the current portion of the long term debt the Liquidity Ratio becomes 0.88 and if you consider cash flow after dividends, the ratio is 1.17.

The Debt Ratios are a bit low with a 2013 ratio of 1.48 and a 5 year median ratio of 1.40. I would prefer it to be 1.50, but it is ok. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are rather typical of a utility at 3.10 and 2.10.

This stock is a dividend growth stock and after holding this stock for 9 years, I am making a 7.8% yield on my original 2005 purchase. This yield is where I expected it to be. However, the capital gain I have made on this stock is better at 14.9% than I expected. See my spreadsheet at enb.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part was posted on Tuesday, March 18, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Enbridge is focused on three core businesses of crude oil and liquids pipelines, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas distribution. They operate in Canada and US. Its web site is here Enbridge.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, March 10, 2014

No Posts until Thursday, March 13, 2014

I am sorry, but I will not be doing any blog posting until Thursday, March 13, 2014

Friday, March 7, 2014

Canadian Tire Corp 2

I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF). In 2000 when I first bought this stock, it was on the Investment Reporter's list of conservative Canadian stocks. I bought this stock for my Canadian Trading account in 2009. I bought it because I have done well with it in my Pension Account and it was a consumer stock.

Over the past year in insider trading there was some $18.4M of insider selling and $10.7M of insider buying with a net of insider selling at $7.7M. Insiders not only have options, but also option like vehicles of Deferred Share units, Performance Share Units, Share-Based Award and Restricted Share Units. In 2013 outstanding shares were increased for stock options by 5,000 shares with a book value of $400,000.

There are voting shares or common shares and non-voting Class A shares. There is lots of insider ownership. For example, the CFO owns common shares worth around $52M and Class A shares worth around $81M and a director, Martha Gardiner Billes, owns common shares worth around $262M and Class A shares worth around $80M.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.43, 11.12 and 12.26. The 10 year low, median and high median P/E Ratios are 10.00, 12.07 and 15.11. The P/E's have been moving lower in the last few years and then have started to be higher in 2013. The low P/E for 2013 is 11.02, the median was 13.76 and the high was 16.49.

The current P/E is 13.56 based on a stock price of $99.81 and 2014 earnings estimates of $7.36. Based on the median P/E's over last 5 years, this P/E is relatively high as the 5 year high median P/E is 12.26. Based on median P/E's over the last 10 years, this P/E of 13.56 is still within a reasonable range, if a little on the high side as it is higher than the 10 year median P/E of 12.07.

I get a Graham Price of $106.22. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratio is 0.68, 0.83 and 1.04. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.94 based on a stock price of $99.81. This stock price tests says that the stock price is reasonable, but on the high side.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.28 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.46 based on a stock price of $99.81 and a Book Value per Share of $68.14. The current P/B Ratio is some 15% higher than the 10 year P/B Ratio and this stock price test says that the stock price is reasonable, but still a bit on the high side.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.75%. The current dividend yield is 1.75%. This stock price test says that the stock price is reasonable. If you look at historical dividend yield, the average is 1.78%, a value very close to the current yield. If you look at the median of the historical H/L dividend yield, you get a dividend yield of 1.60 and the current dividend yield is almost 10% higher. The historical dividend yield testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

There is a CBC news article on how Canadian Tire has benefited from this winter's cold weather. In February 2014, Chris Sorensen of MacLean magazine did an interview with Stephen Wetmore, the CEO of Canadian Tire. There is an BNN video that starts off talking about the good news of Canadian Tire's 4th quarter and how they still have time to prepare for coming US competition. (With BNN you have to watch a commercial first.)

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The 12 month stock target price is $113.00. This implies total returns of 14.97% with 1.75% from dividends and 13.22% from capital gains.

The stock price seems to be reasonable, although some tests show it is rather on the high side of the reasonable range. See my spreadsheet at ctc.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Canadian Tire Corp engages in retail sales, financial services and petroleum sales. They own Canadian Tire Store, Gas Outlets, Parts Source Stores and Mark's Work Warehouse. The Canadian Tire stores offer a unique range of automotive, sports and leisure and home products. The company is controlled by the Billes family who own most of the voting shares. Its web site is here Canadian Tire.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Canadian Tire Corp

And old and dear friend has just died. I will not have time to do a blog entry on Thursday, March 6, 2014. I should be able to continue on Friday, but that is not certain at this time.

On my other blog I am today writing about possible stocks to buy continue...

I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF). In 2000 when I first bought this stock, it was on the Investment Reporter's list of conservative Canadian stocks. I bought this stock for my Canadian Trading account in 2009. I bought it because I have done well with it in my Pension Account and it was a consumer stock.

The dividend on this stock is in the low range and the increases good. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.75% and the current dividend yield is 1.75%. The dividend increases over the past 5 and 10 years was at 10.8% and 13.4% per year. The last dividend increase occurred this year and it was for 25%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are low with the 5 year DPR for EPS at 19.7% and the DPR for CFPS at 8.3%. The DPRs for 2013 are 20.3% for EPS and 9.16% for CFPS.

The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 13.37% and 7.21% per year. The capital gain portion of this return is 11.66% and 5.91% per year. The dividend portion of this return is at 1.71% and 1.31% per year. What I have made on my total holdings is 12.82% per year with 11.23% per year from capital gains and 1.59% per year from dividends.

The outstanding shares have basically not changed over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and DRIP. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. There has been reasonable to good growth in revenue, earnings and cash flow.

Revenue per Share has increased by 5.7% and 6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS have grown at 8.5 and 8.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has grown at 16.2% and 8.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Each year over the past 10 years, Return on Equity has been 10% or above. The 5 year median ROE is 10.5%. The ROE for 2013 is at 10.4%. The ROE on comprehensive income is 11.4% for 2013.

The debt ratios are fairly good. The Liquidity Ratio is quite good at 1.85. The Debt Ratios are good at 1.67. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 2.50 and 1.50 are ok.

I have done quite well with this stock. It is a stock to buy for diversification into consumer stocks. See my spreadsheet at ctc.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, March 7, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Canadian Tire Corp engages in retail sales, financial services and petroleum sales. They own Canadian Tire Store, Gas Outlets, Parts Source Stores and Mark's Work Warehouse. The Canadian Tire stores offer a unique range of automotive, sports and leisure and home products. The company is controlled by the Billes family who own most of the voting shares. Its web site is here Canadian Tire.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Canadian Real Estate Trust 2

I own this stock of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF). In September 2009, I wanted to buy another REIT after having to sell Summit. I already have lots of RioCan. I looked at H&R and CDN REIT. I think that CDN REIT is a better buy. I was not interested in CAP as it is only Apartments.

Over the past year there has been insider trading, but only insider buying and very little of that. Insider buying was at $0.4M. The CEO owns shares worth around $19.7M. There is little in the way of options and little in the way of outstanding options. There was no increase in outstanding shares due to options in 2013; however, the company does say that they buy stocks on the open market for stock options.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/EPS Ratios are high at 33.95, 33.98 and 37.02. The current P/E Ratio is 44.97 based on a stock price of $43.62 and 2014 EPS estimates of $0.97. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively high.

It is probably best to use values for Funds from Operations (FFO) to test the stock price rather than using EPS. The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 13.14, 14.28 and 15.42. The current P/FFO Ratio is 14.74. This ratio is based on a stock price $43.62 and 2014 FFO estimates of $2.96. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but on the high side. A problem with FFO is that the calculation of this value has changed over time.

I get a Graham price of $23.27. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.26, 1.56 and 1.76. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.87. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively high.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.24%. The current dividend yield is 4.01%, a value some 5% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but on the high side. The historical dividend yield tells a different story. However I calculate an average or a median dividend yield value, it is over 7%. On an historical dividend yield basis, the stock price is quite relatively high.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The 12 month stock price target is $48.30. This implies a total return of $14.74% with 4.01% from dividends and 10.73% from capital gains.

This G&M article talks about how REITs have lost their swagger in 2014. In this Financial Post article, Garry Marr says that REITs could have a strong year in 2014.

I will be keeping my stock in the company, but will not be buying any more. I think that the price is getting too high and I have enough REITs currently. See my spreadsheet at ref.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, March 03, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties. It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. Its web site is here CDN REIT.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Canadian Real Estate Trust

On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks continue...

I own this stock of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF). In September 2009, I wanted to buy another REIT after having to sell Summit. I already have lots of RioCan. I looked at H&R and CDN REIT. I think that CDN REIT is a better buy. I was not interested in CAP as it is only Apartments.

REIT's tend to have a higher level of yields, but have low distribution growth. You want the growth to be at least at the rate of inflation. The current yield is 4% and the 5 year median yield is 4.24%. The distribution growth is at 3.3% and 2.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Inflation has been low over the past 5 and 10 years according to the Bank of Canada. It was running at 1.6% and 1.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

When looking at the Distribution Payout Ratios, one tends to look at the ratios for cash flow, FFO and AFFO, rather than for EPS. The 5 year median DPR for cash flow is 63.9%, for FFO is 59% and 67%. The DPR for 2013 was 66% for cash flow, 56% for FFO and 62% for AFFO.

The stock's total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 14.62% and 14.94% per year. The portion of this return from distributions is at 4.65% and 5.53% per year. The capital gain portion of this return is at 9.97% and 9.41% per year.

Outstanding shares have increased by 2.4% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and DRIP. Shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Outstanding shares were not increased due to stock options in 2013. The annual statement mentions that the company buys stocks on the open market for stock options.

Revenues are up by 3.3% and 7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share has increase by 4% and 5.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

There has been minimal growth in EPS over the past 5 and 10 years with growth at 1.9% and 0.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, 5 year running averages are higher at 9.9% and 3.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The net income shows the same configuration with net income up 4.3% and 3.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, but the 5 year running averages up by 8.9% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Net income and EPS has been consistently averaging higher over the past 5 and 10 years.

There is better growth in FFO (Funds from Operations) and AFFO (Adjusted Funds from Operations). These values are used more for REITs that are the net income and EPS values. The FFO has increased by 4.6% and 7.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. AFFO has increased by 5.5% and 7.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The Return on Equity has been low over the past few years at 5% with the 5 year median ROE also at 5%. The reason for this is that the decline is that with the new IFRS accounting rules, the book value has increased considerable. The 10 year median ROE is at 10.2%. The Return on Assets has also decreased, but not as much. The current ROA is 2.3% and the median ROA over the past 10 years is at 3.4%.

The Liquidity Ratio is quite good currently at 1.97, but this does fluctuate considerably. The Debt Ratios has always been very good with the current Debt Ratio of 1.85. The 5 year median value is also 1.85. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are ok at 2.18 and 1.18.

I bought this stock for diversification. I have done well with this stock. See my spreadsheet at ref.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties. It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. Its web site is here CDN REIT.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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