Friday, January 19, 2018

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

First I would like to say that the transfer of money to my Meridian Account was showing up on Friday, January 19 first thing in the morning and was dated January 18. This is effectively 4 business days before money can actually be used. So I did transfer on Monday and can use the money on Friday. If this was Tangerine, the transaction would be done the following day that is I could use the money on Tuesday.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The stock price seems fairly good with a number of good tests show it reasonable and around the median. Here again a bank with some very good long term returns. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

I do not own this stock of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM). This was the only major Canadian Bank I was not following. I think it is about time I did.

The dividends are good and the dividend increases are low to moderate. The current dividend is 4.23%, with the 5, 10 and historical median yields at 4.67%, 4.80% and 4.29%. I consider any yield in the 4 or 5% range as good. The growth in dividends over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years are 6.89%, 5.03%, 8.01%, 8.20%, 8.51% and 7.56%. I consider growth less than 8% to be low and 8% to 15% to be moderate.

They can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is 45.2% with 5 year coverage at 46.6%. For banks the DPR is expected to be in the 40% to 55% range.

The long term total returns are also good for this bank. I have them for up to 30 years. The 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 year total returns are 13.49%, 10.03%, 12.15%, 8.82%, 14.64% and 12.50%. The total return includes both dividends and capital gain and values are for December to December. The growth rates are compounded rates

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.00, 9.89 and 10.78. The 10 year ratios are 9.14, 10.19 and 11.24. The historical ratios are 8.34, 9.73 and 11.40. The current P/E Ratio is 11.18 based on a stock price of $122.95 and 2018 EPS estimate of $11.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median and close to being expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $128.34. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.86, 0.97 and 1.08. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.96 based on a stock price of $122.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.96. The current P/B Ratio is 1.85 based on Book Value of $29,238M, Book Value per Share of $66.55 and a stock price of $122.95. The current ratio is some 5.9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The historical median dividend yield is $4.29%. The current dividend yield is 4.23% based on dividends of $5.20 and a stock price of $122.95. The current dividend yield is some 1.4% below the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.52. The current P/S Ratio is 3.06 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $17,641M, Revenue per Share of $40.16 and a stock price of 122.95. The current ratio is some 21.3% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (6), Hold (4) and Underperform (3). The consensus would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $128.47. This implies a total return of 8.72% with 4.49% from capital gains and 4.23% from dividends.

Eric Emin Wood on IT World Canada talks about this bank going tech. They also have just purchased Toronto-based Wellington Financial. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool says what he likes about this bank. The Motley Fool David Jagielski of The Motley Fool on Yahoo talks about CIBC might be the best Canadian bank to buy. The Dividend Earner blogger talks about CIBC. See what analysts are saying about this bank on Stock Chase. They think it is doing well.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is a Canadian-based financial institution. The company serves its clients through retail and business banking, wealth management and wholesale banking. Its web site is here Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

The last stock I wrote about was about was National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Transcontinental Inc. (TSX-TCL, OTC-TCLAF)... learn more on Monday, January 22, 2018 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Why Zebras Don't Get Ulcers by Robert Sapolsky learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

National Bank of Canada

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. Price wise it would see that the bank's stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. So the price is a little high, but not overly so. It is a smaller bank, but has provided shareholders with good long term returns. See my spreadsheet on National Bank of Canada.

I do not own this stock of National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF). I thought I should follow one of the smaller Canadian Banks. This seems like a good choice.

There seems to be a lot of insider selling as the selling as a percentage of the market cap is at 0.20%. You expect a percentage closer to 0.02%. However, it seems that insiders are selling off their stock options rather than selling share that they already own.

The dividend yield is moderate to good with dividend growth low to moderate. The current dividend yield is 3.83% with the 5, 10 and historical median yields at 4.17%, 4.17% and 3.95%. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is low to moderate at 8.25% and 7.42%. I have the same comment for longer term growth which over the past 15, 20, 25 and 30 years is at 11.26%, 10.98%, 7.11% and 7.26%.

I consider a moderate dividend yield to be in the 2% and 3% range and good to be in the 4% and 5% range. For dividend growth, growth below 8% is low and between 8% and 15% is moderate.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for this bank for 2017 is 41.5% and the 5 year coverage is 45.09%. Generally you expect the DPR for banks to be in the 40% to 55% range. So they can afford their dividends.

The Total Return for this bank over the past 30 years is quite decent at 12.28% per year. The total return includes capital gains and dividends paid. This is a compounded return. The total return for the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years is at 14.35%, 13.28%, 13.62%, 12.24%, 16.17% and 12.28%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are 9.04, 10.62 and 12.21. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.07, 10.29 and 11.76. The historical ratios are 8.38, 9.82 and 11.88. The current P/E Ratio is 10.87 based on a stock price of $62.61 and 2018 EPS estimate of $5.76. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $69.64. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 0.86 and 1.02. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.98 based on a stock price of $62.61. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.66. The current P/B Ratio is 1.99 based on Book Value of $10,700M, Book Value per Share of $31.51 and a stock price of $62.61. The current P/B Ratio is some 19.7% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median and very close to expensive.

The historical median dividend yield is 3.95%. The current dividend yield is 3.83% based on dividends of $2.40 and a stock price of $62.61. The current yield is some 2.96% below the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median (just).

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.55. The current P/S Ratio is 2.96 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $7,190M, Revenue per Share of $21.17 and a stock price of $62.61. The current P/S Ratio is some 16.06% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2), Hold (9) and Underperform (1). This consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $66.08. This implies a total return of 9.38% with 5.54% from capital gains and 3.83% from dividends based on a current stock price of $62.61.

The bank on Cision talks about their new website. Jonathon Baker on Simply Wall Street talks about this bank's debt. Nicole Wilson on Ledger Gazette talks about recent ratings for this bank. See what analysts think of this stock on Stock Chase. They mostly like this bank.

National Bank of Canada is a financial service provider for consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises, and large corporations. The company's segments include Personal and Commercial, Wealth Management and Financial Markets. Its web site is here National Bank of Canada.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM)... learn more on Friday, January 19, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Tangerine and Meridian.... learn more on Thursday, January 18, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, January 15, 2018

Bank of Nova Scotia

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth bank. Stock price is reasonable to expensive. It may be on the expensive side but not overly so. This stock has great long term total return with the one for 30 years at 16.60% per year. See my spreadsheet on Bank of Nova Scotia.

I do not own this stock of Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS). This is one of the big banks of Canada. All our big banks are dividend growth companies. Besides, my son owns shares in this bank.

The dividend yields are moderate to high and the dividend growth is low to moderate. The current dividend yield is 3.85%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are higher at 4.12%, 4.15% and 4.11%. Dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years has been low with growth at 6.9% and 5.8% per year. Dividend growth was better longer term with dividend growth for the past 15, 20, 25 and 30 years at 10%, 11.1%, 10.4%, and 9.9% per year.

I think that dividend yields of 4 and 5% are high. If dividends are at 6% or above you have to consider the possibility that the company is in financial problems. In fact any time a stock's yield gets way above where it normally is, you have to look for financial problems.

The 2008/9 crisis hit banks hard. This bank only had one year of not rising dividends in 2010, but dividend increases have also been much lower since then than they had been in the past. They were through a period from 2000 to 2007when dividend increases were high (that is over 15%). However, they were lower before that period and after.

They can afford their dividends as the Dividend Payout Ratio is for 2017 at 47% with the 5 year coverage of DPR at 47.3%. The basic rule of thumb is that banks DPR should be from 40% to 55%.

I have total returns for this bank over the past 30 years. The total returns for the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years is at 11.25%, 8.64%, 12.08%, 12.04%, 15.91% and 16.60% per year. Total returns include both dividends and capital gains. These values are determined using December 31 values. This total return calculation is compounded. The lowest is for the past 10 years and that is because it includes the difficult period of 2008/9.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.29, 11.32 and 12.52. The corresponding 10 year Ratios are 10.47, 11.47 and 12.97. The corresponding historical ones are 10.29, 11.25 and 13.20. They are pretty consistent. The current P/E Ratio 12.86, based on a stock price of $82.11 and 2018 EPS estimate of $6.39. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median and getting very close to expensive.

I get a Graham price of $81.51. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.85, 0.93 and 1.05. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.01 based on a stock price of $82.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.88. The current P/B Ratio is 1.78 based on Book Value of $55,454M, Book Value per Share of $46.24 and a stock price of $82.11. The current P/B Ratio is some 5% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The historical median dividend yield is 4.11. The current dividend yield is 3.85% based on dividends of $3.16 and a stock price of $82.11. The current dividend is some 6.4% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.30. The current ratio is 3.42 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $28,775M, Revenue per Share of $23.99 and a stock price of $82.11. The current ratio is 3.7% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (10), Hold (1) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price is $89.71. This implies a total return of $13.10 based on a stock price of $82.11. This total return consists of capital gains of 9.26% and dividends of $3.85%.

Andrew Walker of Motley Fool thinks that this would be a great addition to a TFSA retirement fund. Ploutos Investing on Seeking Alpha does an analysis of this stock. Lisa Williams on Marea Informative gives an interesting view about the attention being paid to this bank. See what analysts are saying onStock Chase. Most mention that this bank is doing business in South America.

Bank of Nova Scotia is an international bank and a financial service provider. The company provides personal and commercial banking, wealth management and private banking, corporate and investment banking, and capital markets services. Its web site is here Bank of Nova Scotia.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF)... learn more on Wednesday, January 17, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks Changes 2017... learn more on Tuesday, January 16, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, January 12, 2018

Toronto Dominion Bank

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. Stock price is fliting with the expensive range. Maybe best to wait for a better price, but that may take some time. This stock has a great long term total return with 40 year total return at 17.65% per year. Also, dividend increases over the past 40 years is at 11.4% per year. See my spreadsheet on Toronto Dominion Bank.

I own this stock of Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD). This stock, as all banks, was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list and the other dividend lists that I followed. When I sold some Metro in 2009, I bought this stock. It is the 3rd bank stock I bought. This is one of the big 5 banks of Canada. I think all Canadians should have at least one bank in their portfolio.

I have 40 years of dividend and stock price data on this stock. The returns and dividend growth over the past 40 years have been great for shareholders. This bank only kept dividends flat for one year in 2010. Compare this to BMO which kept dividends flat for 4 years from 2009 to 2012 inclusive. Note that BNS and National Bank also only kept dividends level for one year whereas Royal Bank and CIBC had dividends level for 2 years.

Dividend yield is moderate as is the dividend growth. Current dividend yields are at 3.20% with 5, 10 and historical median dividend yield at 3.71%, 3.71% and 3.50%. The dividend growth over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 years are 10.21%, 8.34%, 10.03%, 11.22%, 10.58%, 10.83%, 10.08% and 11.37% per year. The one period under 10% is for the past 10 years and that is because the one year of flat dividends was within the past 10 years.

They can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is at 42.7% and the 5 year covers is at 45.4%. The DPR for CFPS is 31.4% for 2017 and the 5 year coverage is 33.9%.

The long term total return is great and it is the reason everyone should have a Canadian Bank in their portfolio. The Total Return over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 years are 15.73%, 11.05%, 14.00%, 12.05%, 20.62%, 14.43%, 15.82% and 17.65% per year. This is 31 of December to 31 of December. Total return includes both dividends and capital gains and this is a compounded rate. The 40 year total return at 17.65% is exceptional.

The total return over the past 5 and 10 years of 15.73% and 11.05% break down into 11.96% and 7.80% from capital gains and 3.78% and 3.25% from dividends.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.40, 12.63 and 13.69. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.20, 12.65 and 13.76. The historical ratios are 11.40, 11.34 and 13.92. These are remarkable consistent. The current P/E Ratio is 13.54 based on a stock price of $74.90 and 2018 EPS estimate of $5.53. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median and very close to relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $68.66. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.86, 0.97 and 1.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.09 based on a stock price of $74.90. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.61. The current P/B Ratio is 1.98 based on a Book Value of $69,807, BVPS of $37.89 and a stock price of $74.90. The current ratio is some 22.7% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The historical median dividend yield is 3.50%. The current dividend yield is 3.20% based on dividends of $2.40 and a stock price of $74.90. The current dividend yield is some 8.5% below the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 3.13. The current P/S Ratio is 3.81 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $36,198M, Revenue per Share of $19.65 and a stock price of $74.90. The current ratio is some 21.7% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (5), Hold (6) and Underperform (1). They are sort of all over the place. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $78.00. This implies a total return of 7.34% with 4.14% from capital gains and 3.20% from dividends. This makes sense as price is relatively high.

Susan Portelance on Motley Fool talks about the bank's investment in AI. Canadian banks talk in this CTV News Report of the effect of US tax laws on them. This Globe and Mail article talks about Canada introducing new bank capital rules. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase.

The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its subsidiaries provide financial products and services. It offers asset management, insurance, wealth management, investment banking, wholesale banking, personal banking and commercial banking services and others. Its web site is here Toronto Dominion Bank.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Calian Group Ltd. (TSX-CGY, OTC- CLNFF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS)... learn more on Monday, January 15, 2018 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book A World in Disarray by Richard Haass learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Calian Group Ltd

First I would like to say that I bought Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF) for my main purchase in my TFSA for my 2018 deposit.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. The stock price is generally testing as expensive, but it is just into the expensive range and so not that overpriced. A good sign that they are growing again would be an increase in dividends but analysts do not see this happening over the next couple of years. See my spreadsheet on Calian Group Ltd.

I own this stock of Calian Group Ltd. (TSX-CGY, OTC-CLNFF). This is an interesting company with a very nice dividend. This stock came up on a Globe Investor site. The Globe Investor Number Cruncher is an investment column about screening for stocks and funds. They did one on companies with little to no debt. I also noted that the Financial Blogger has this stock on his Top Ten Canadian Dividend Stocks list.

This company has virtually no debt and certainly no long term debt. I remember one commentator at the Money Show saying that it was almost impossible for a company with no debt to go bankrupt. This company hit a peak in 2012. They have now surpassed this in Revenue, Earnings and stock price, but they have not reinstated dividend growth. Dividends have not been increased since 2012. You know that the company feels more confident about the future when dividends are increased.

The main thing to point out is that they have not raised the dividend since 2012. Business has had a long slow recovery and this has had a big effect on a lot of companies. Prior to 2012 dividend were growing. The dividend growth rate was 1.1%, 10.3% and 14.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Dividends have only been paid since 2003, but there was some very good growth at first.

The current dividend yield is moderate, but it has varied a lot. The high is around 7.6% and the low around 1.6%. The current dividend yield is 3.92% and the historical median yield is 4.9%. This 5 and 10 year median yield is 5.7% and 5.3%.

They have had no trouble covering the dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is 55.7% with 5 year coverage at 67%. The DPR for 2017 for CF is 36% with 5 year coverage at 42%. The preferred DPR for CF is at 40% or less.

This stock has only been around on the TSX since 1993 so I have only up to 24 years of total return. The total return per year over the past 5 10, 15, 20 and 24 years is at 13.45%, 15.28%, 20.32%, 18.19% and 9.02% per year. Total return includes both capital gain and dividends. This is a compounded rate of return. Any compounded rate of return above 8% is good. Mostly the total return on this stock has been good for investors.

The total return on this stock has included a lot of dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return is 13.45% and 15.28% per year which includes 8.88% and 9.23% per year in capital gains and 4.57% and 6.04% in dividends.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.34, 13.09 and 13.84. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.20, 11.08 and 14.98. The historical ratios are 9.54, 11.27 and 12.69. The current P/E Ratio is 15.43 based on a stock price of $32.10 and 2018 EPS estimate of $2.08. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $23.39. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.02 and 1.14. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.22 based on a stock price of $32.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.01. The current P/B Ratio is 2.45 based on Book Value of $89.49, Book Value per Share of $11.69 and a stock price of $32.10. The current P/B Ratio is some 21.8% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The historical median dividend yield is 4.90%. The current dividend yield is 3.92% based on dividends of $1.12 and a stock price of $32.10. The current yield is some 20% higher than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.62. The current P/S Ratio is 0.73 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $300M, Revenue per Share of $39.19 and a stock price of $32.10. The current P/S Ratio is some 18% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find only Buy (4) Recommendations and the consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price is $37.00. This implies a total return of 19.18% with 15.26% from capital gains and 3.92% from dividends based on a current stock price of $32.10.

Marguerite Chambers on BZ Weekly says analysts expect the company to report $0.49 EPS on February 7, 2018. Times Staff Times Staff says on Ozark Times that some measures so no strong trend for this stock. Andrew Edmonds on Simply Wall Street thinks this stock is fairly valued. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Most like it, but one analyst points out that if they lose a big contract it really impacts the results.

Calian Group Ltd is engaged in providing business and technology services to industry and government in the health, IT services and training and engineering domains. Its web site is here Calian Group Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Rogers Sugar Inc. (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD)... learn more on Friday, January 12, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Update Notes.... learn more on Thursday, January 11, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, January 8, 2018

Rogers Sugar Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Good yield consumers. On a number of tests the current stock price is relatively reasonable and below or at the median. This is probably a fair judge of this stock’s price. It might take off with new purchases. See my spreadsheet on Rogers Sugar Inc.

I do not own this stock of Rogers Sugar Inc. (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF). This stock was brought to my attention by Dividend Ninja. This company used to be an Income Trust (TSX-RSI.UN) but it has been converted to a corporation. On its change to a corporation, it lowered its dividend.

Both their Intangibles and goodwill and long term debt has increased. The debt has increased by 150% to a ratio with the market cap of 0.25 and Intangibles and Goodwill has increased by 50.4% to a ratio of 0.59. They also issued new shares and shares have increased by 12.7%. Any time you get big changes to these items you need to find out why.

In this case, the company acquired the outstanding shares of LBMT. LBMT is one of the world’s largest branded and private label maple syrup bottling and distribution companies. One analyst has said that Rogers in the past lacked a growth avenue, but with the addition of LBMT and Decacer they have one.

The dividend yields have always been high on this stock. The historical high yield is around 16% and the historical low yield is around 5.2%. This average historical yield is 10.57% with a historical median yield at 9.47%. They reduced their dividends when they became a corporation but even since then the median is still high at 6.18%. The current dividend yield is 5.78% which is still a pretty good yield.

The bad news is that there is no growth in dividends. The dividend has not increased since 2013. The 5 dividend growth is the only one that is positive because of an increase 5 years ago but that is still extremely low at just 0.85%. For the past, 10, 15 and 19 year dividends have declined by 1.69%, 0.94% and 3.43% per year. Analysts do not see any increase in the near term.

The problem is that the company has not been able to cover its dividends with its earnings since 2012. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is 164% with 5 year coverage of 119%. Analysts think that the dividends will be covered by earnings in 2018 at a rate of 68%. However, they also thought that earnings would be high enough for them to cover the dividends in 2017.

Actually the total return has been fairly good except for the 20 year one. The total return for the past 5, 10, 15 and 20 years is at 8.34%, 11.15%, 10.32% and 4.75% per year. A lot of things happen over the long term and I think that any per year total return over the long term at or above 8% is a good one.

However, most of the total return for this stock is in dividends. The total return for the past 5 and 10 years is at 8.34% and 11.15% per year with capital gain at 1.08% and 3.01% per year and dividends at 7.27% and 8.14% per year respectively.

The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.49, 16.21 and 18.52. The 10 year ratios are 12.26, 13.62 and 14.68. The historical ones are 9.02, 9.84 and 11.16. The current P/E Ratios are 11.75 based on a stock price $6.23 and 2018 EPS estimates of $0.53. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $6.11. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 0.92, 1.03 and 1.16. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price of $6.23. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and around the median.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.82. The current P/B Ratio is 1.99 based on a stock price of $6.23, Book Value of $331M and Book Value per Share of $3.13. The current P/B Ratio is some 9.3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

The historical median dividend yield is 9.47%. The one since the company became a corporation is 6.18%. The current dividend yield is 5.78% based on dividends of $0.36 and stock price of $6.23. The current dividend yield is some 39% and 6.5% below these yields. The current yield is even below the 5 year median yield of 6.70% by 13.8%. All this testing suggests that the stock price could relatively reasonable, but it is certainly above the median.

You are never going to get a good result from using my favourite test using the dividend yield. The yields in the past have been very high. High dividend yields usually denote a company in problem. If they fix the problems, the dividend yield is going to go down.

The Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.89. The current P/S Ratio is 0.75 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $879M, Revenue per Share of $8.31 and a stock price of $6.23. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy (3) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $7.05. This implies a total return of 18.94% with 5.78% from dividends and 13.16% from capital gains.

Joseph Solitro on Motley Fool likes the dividend yield on this stock. Migdalia James on Herald KS talks about what analysts expect on this stock. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Most think that they are making a good move into Maple Sugar.

Rogers Sugar Inc is engaged in refining, packaging and marketing of sugar products. The Company produces granulated, icing, organic and brown sugars, liquid sugars and syrups. Its web site is here Rogers Sugar Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Calian Group Ltd. (TSX-CGY, OTC- CLNFF)... learn more on Wednesday, January 9, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Stock Entries 2018.... learn more on Tuesday, January 9, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, January 5, 2018

Royal Bank of Canada

By the way I have started a spreadsheet on Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc (TSX-IAG, OTC- IDLLF). This is the second one I have added this year because of other stocks being dropped from my list.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. Price is a bit high but not overly so. Very good long term return. My yield on my original stock price is 50.14% currently after 23 years. This is eye popping and a good reason to buy dividend growth stocks. See my spreadsheet on Royal Bank of Canada.

I own this stock of Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY). At the time I bought this stock it was on Mike Higgs' list of Canadian Dividend Growth Stocks and on the dividend lists I followed as were all the banks. I still value this stock and consider it a core stock of my portfolio.

I have done even better on the Royal Bank than Bank of Montreal. I have had this bank for 23 years and my yield on my original stock price is an eye popping 50.14%. According to my spreadsheet, people who have had this stock for 25 years get a yield of 57% and for 30 years get a yield of 93% if they paid a median price for the stock. This is why you buy bank stocks for the long term.

The dividend yield is moderate with the current yield at 3.55% and the 5, 10 and historical median yields at 3.92%, 3.93% and 3.92% respectively. This is close to a good yield which I consider to be in the 4 to 5% range.

Dividend growth has been low to moderate over the past 5 and 10 years with growth at 8.15% and 6.17% per year for the past 5 and 10 years. Growth has been better in the past with the 15, 20, 25 and 30 year dividend growth at 10.10%, 11.14%, 10.65% and 9.20% per year.

The 5 and 10 year total return is at 15.37% and 10.86% per year. Even more impressive is the longer term total return with growth for 15, 20, 25 and 30 years at 12.71%, 12.35%, 16.50% and 17.03% per year. I have had this stock for 23 years and my total return is 17.97% per year with 12.68% from capital gains and 5.29% from dividends.

What this means that say I had invested $10,000 in this stock 23 years ago, my stock would be worth $141,390.11 today and I would have collected some $48,866.71 in dividends so far. However a warning is required because past returns do not guarantee future returns. Perhaps this bank will continue to show good returns or you may need to buy a smaller bank to get such returns. However, this does show the possibilities. And note that a lot of things can happen over 30 years. There will be all sorts of expansions and recessions happening.

I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 10.51, 11.44 and 12.68. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.68, 12.39 and 13.68. The historical ratios are 10.40, 12.42 and 14.07. The current P/E Ratio is 12.91 based on a current stock price of $102.64 and 2018 EPS estimate of 7.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $88.09. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.92, 1.08 and 1.19.The current P/GP Ratio is 1.17 based on a stock price of $102.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. It is almost to the relatively expensive range.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.02. The current P/B Ratio is 2.21 based on Book Value of $67,416m, Book Value per Share of $46.41 and a stock price of $102.64. The current P/B Ratio is some 9.4% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

The current dividend yield is 3.55% based on dividends of $3.64 and a stock price of $102.64. The historical median dividend yield is 3.92%. The current dividend yield is some 9.5% below the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.98. The current P/S Ratio is 3.64 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $40,957M, Revenue per Share of $28.20 and a stock price of $102.64. The current P/S Ratio is some 11.4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (6), Hold (5) and Underperform (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $108.47. This implies a total return of 9.23% with 5.68% from capital gains and 3.55% from dividends.

Katy Gagnon on Analysts Buzz says with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 70 at 75.73, this stock is overbought. Note site is quoting in US$. Nicole Wilson on Ledger Gazette interestingly compares RBC and Farmers National Banc (NASDAQ:FMNB). See what analysts are saying about this bank on Stock Chase. They rather like it and most feel that it will continue to grow.

Royal Bank of Canada is one of the largest Canadian banks. It provides diversified financial services, personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment banking, and transaction processing services worldwide. Its web site is here Royal Bank of Canada.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Rogers Sugar Inc. (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF)... learn more on Monday, January8, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Bank of Montreal

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. In testing the stock price it seem to be coming out as reasonable but above the median. So the price may be a bit high, but it is not extraordinarily high. See my spreadsheet on Bank of Montreal.

I own this stock of Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO). When I bought this stock in 1983, I thought it was the best bank stock to buy at that time.

What I noticed was an eye popping 50.47% yield on my original purchase price of this stock in 1983. Some 35 years ago, I know but still eye popping. This is why you buy banks for your portfolio.

I have a fair bit of data on this stock. The total return over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years is at 14.91%, 10.13%, 10.18%, 9.65%, 14.48% and 15.30% per year. So on average this bank produced a minimum long term of 9.65% total return per year. If you had bought this stock 30 years ago you would have made 15.30% total return per year. This is very good. Note that total return includes capital gains and dividends.

The dividend yield on this bank is moderate to good with low growth. The dividend yield is currently 3.70%, with 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields at 4.29%, 4.58% and 4.47%. Dividend growth has varied over the years with 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 34 growth at 4.68%m 2.65%, 7.44%, 7.69%, 7.87%, 6.74% and 5.97% per year.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.07, 11.42 and 12.77. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.06, 11.62 and 12.92. The corresponding historical ones are 10.52, 11.83 and 13.54. These are pretty consistent. The current P/E Ratio is 12.12 based on a stock price of $100.59 and 2018 EPS estimate of $8.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and above the median. It is almost expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $100.59. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.86 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and above the median.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.49. The current P/B Ratio is 1.58 based on Book Value of $41,114M, Book Value per Share of $63.47 and a stock price of $100.59. The current P/B Ratio is some 6.6% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and above the median.

The current dividend yield is 3.70% based on dividends of $3.72 and a stock price of $100.59. The historical median dividend yield is 4.47%. The current dividend yield is some 17% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.55. The current P/S Ratio is 2.93 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $22,262M, Revenue per Share of $34.36 and a stock price of $100.59. The current P/S Ratio is some 15% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4) and Hold (10) recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $105.80. This implies a total return of 8.88% with 5.18% from capital gains and 3.70% from dividends based on a current price of $105.80.

Dolores Ford on Frisco Fastball talks about this bank surging to an all-time high on January 2, 2018. Note she is talking is US$. Katy Gagnon on Analysts Buzz also thinks this stock is overbought. She is also using US$. See what analysts are saying about this bank on Stock Chase . BMO does not seem to be a favourite bank.

Bank of Montreal (the Bank) is a financial services provider. The Bank provides a range of personal and commercial banking, wealth management and investment banking products and services. The Bank conducts its business through three operating groups: Personal and Commercial Banking (P&C), Wealth Management and BMO Capital Markets. The P&C business includes two retail and business banking operating segments, such as Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking (Canadian P&C), and the United States Personal and Commercial Banking (U.S. P&C). Its web site is here Bank of Montreal .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY)... learn more on Friday, January 5, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy January 2018... learn more on Thursday, January 4, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Metro Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. On some stock price testing this stock looks expensive. However, the dividend yield testing shows the price is reasonable and below the median. See my spreadsheet on Metro Inc. .

I own this stock of Metro Inc. (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF). I was following this stock before I bought it because it was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth stock list and on the other dividend lists that I was following.

What I noticed is that the stock price hit a high in 2016 and has not done much since. It has backed off this high a bit. Another thing is that there seems to be a lot of insider selling which is at 0.17% of market cap. You expect this to be closer to 0.01%. However, it seems that insiders are selling off stock options rather than stocks they own.

I bought this stock 14 years ago and I am making a yield of 11.04% on my purchase price. For this stock people who have held this stock for 5, 10, 15 or 20 years and paid a median price would be getting a yield on their original investment of 2.96%, 6.88%, 10.85% and 21.08%. This is why you buy dividend growth stocks for retirement purposes.

People who have held this stock for 5, 10, 15., 20 or 25 years purchased in December would have a total return (capital gain and dividends) of $15.43%, 18.21%, 15.19%, 16.60% and 18.76% per year. This is why you buy stock for the long term. There have been lots of studies to show that dividend paying stock give better returns and have higher capital gains than non-dividend paying stock.

Dividend yield on this is low and the dividend growth is good. The current dividend yield is 1.61%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 1.46%, 1.57% and 1.44%. The dividends have grown over the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 22 years are 18.23%, 15.39%, 15.74%, 17.49% and 20.70% per year. Dividends started in 1995 and they have paid more in each financial year.

They can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is 24%. The 5 year coverage is 21%. The DPR for CFPS is 15% for 2017 and the 5 year coverage is 13%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.29, 15.50 and 18.32. The corresponding 10 year values are 10.38, 11.64 and 13.47. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.01, 11.71 and 14.58. The current P/E Ratio is 15.48 based on a current stock price of $40.25 and 2018 EPS estimate of $2.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price might be reasonable, but it is above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $27.35. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 0.98 and 1.09. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.47 based on a stock price of $40.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Rati of 2.06. The current P/B Ratio is 3.15 based on Book Value of $2,911M, Book Value per Share of $12.78 and a stock price of $40.25. The current ratio is some 53% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The current dividend yield is 1.61%. The historical median dividend yield is 1.44%. The current dividend yield is based on Dividend of $0.65 and a stock price of $40.25. The current dividend yield is some 12% higher than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.46. The current P/S Ratio is 0.63 based on 2018 estimate of revenue of $14,531M, Revenue per Share of $63.81 and a stock price of $40.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (4) and Hold (6) Recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold Recommendation. The 12 months stock price consensus is $46.00. This implies a total return of 15.90% with 14.29% from capital gains and 1.61% from dividends based on a current stock price of $40.25.

Stephanie Bedard-Chateauneuf on Motley Fool compares Loblaw and Metro and picks Loblaw. A Baldwin Staff Writer on Baldwin Journal says the ADX shows no clear trend and that the Williams Percent Range shows it is close to being oversold.. See what analysts are saying about this stock at Stock Chase .

Metro Inc.is a leader in food and pharmaceutical distribution in Quebec and Ontario, where it operates a network of more than 600 food stores under several banners including Metro, Metro Plus, Super C and Food Basics, as well as over 250 drugstores under the Brunet, Metro Pharmacy and Drug Basics banners. Its web site is here Metro Inc. .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bird Construction Inc. (TSX-BDT, OTC- BIRDF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO)... learn more on Wednesday, January 3, 2018 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks January 2018... learn more on January 2, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.