Canadian National Railway

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Canadian National Railway.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do like the idea of being invested in one of our railway companies and I happen to pick CNR. I think that the stock price on this company is currently in the reasonable range.

The analysts’ recommendations are all over the place with most being at Hold. It probably comes down to how a person determines if the price is high or low or reasonable. Most people look at P/E Ratio but this is not my favourite method. My favourite is the 10 year median dividend yield test. I also like this test confirmed somewhat by the P/S Ratio test. You might want to check and make sure a company can afford their dividends when you use the dividend yield test. This company can afford its dividends.

I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for just over 18 years and to the end of 2023, I have a total return per year of 15.25% with 13.09% from capital gains and 2.16% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,029.52 you would have bought 17 shares at $60.56 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $343.74 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,831.55. Your total return would have been $3,175.09. This Total Return would be a total return of 12.64% per year with 10.65% from capital gain and 2.00% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$60.56	$1,029.52	17	10	$343.74	$2,831.35	$3,175.09

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.03%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.89%, 1.80% and 1.67%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 11.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was a 7% increase.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 37% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 43% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 90% with 5 year coverage fine at 57%. But there no agreement on FCF.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	37.05%	38.59%
AEPS	43.41%	41.05%
CFPS	30.74%	27.78%
FCF	90.08%	57.44%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.15. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is too low at 0.61. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.59. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.62. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are fine at 2.62 and 0.62.

Type	Year End
Lg Term R	0.15
Intang/GW	0.01
Liquidity	0.61
Liq. + CF	1.59
Debt Ratio	1.62
Leverage	2.62
D/E Ratio	1.62

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	11.67%	12.58%	10.50%	1.86%
2013	10	13.90%	12.64%	10.65%	2.09%
2008	15	13.71%	16.65%	14.31%	2.04%
2003	20	15.82%	15.43%	13.36%	2.07%
1998	25	15.38%	15.74%	13.74%	1.95%
1996	27	15.36%	16.41%	14.32%	2.00%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.26, 20.97 and 23.26. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.51, $18.43 and 21.00. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.25, 14.67 and 17.16. The current ratio is 20.84 based on a stock price of $166.65 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $8.00. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.62, 21.46 and 23.19. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.50, 19.83 and 22.28. The current ratio is 20.78 based on stock price of $166.65 and AEPS for 2024 of $8.02. This ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. Note: The AEPS is thought to be a better measure than the EPS.

I get a Graham Price of $75.15. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.69, 1.97 and 2.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.22 based on a stock price of $166.65. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.40. The current P/B Ratio is 5.32 based on a Book Value of $20,117M, Book Value per Share of $31.30 and a stock price of $166.65. The current ratio is 21% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $29.30. This implies a P/B Ratio of 5.69 and Book Value of $18,831M with a stock price of $166.65. The ratio is 29% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. These ratios are high when a normal ratio is considered to be around 1.50.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.44. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.12 based on a stock price of $166.65, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $11.80 and a Cash Flow of $7,584M. The current ratio is 5.1% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.67%. The current dividend yield is 2.03% based on dividends of $3.38 and a stock price of $166.65. The current dividend yield is 21% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.80%. The current dividend yield is 2.03% based on dividends of $3.38 and a stock price of $166.65. The current dividend yield is 13% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.81. The current P/S Ratio 6.04 based on a Revenue estimate for 2024 of $17,733M, Revenue per Share of $27.59 and a stock price of $166.65. The current ratio is 4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests say cheap to reasonable, with the 10 year dividend yield test at reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test says the stock price is reasonable but above the median (but not by much). The rest of the tests vary from cheap to expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (4), Hold (23) and Underperform (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $174.90 with a high of $210.00 and low of $155.00. The consensus price of $174.90 implies a total return of 6.98% with 4.95% from capital gains and 2.03% from dividends.

Some Analysts like this stock on Stock Chase and others do not. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool thinks this is a buy and hold for a lifetime type stock. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this stock if good for the TFSA and buy and hold forever. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and think it is an attractive income stock. They have one warning of has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Canadian National's railway spans Canada from coast to coast and extends through Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Quebecor Inc (TSX- QBR.B, OTC- QBCRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more on Friday, February 2, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Best Blue Chip Canadian Stocks.... learn more on Thursday, February 1, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Quebecor Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but be cautious. Debt Ratios are a concern. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth currently moderate. This is a new stock for me to cover. See my spreadsheet on Quebecor Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company has some quite high ratios. For example, the P/B Ratio is 4.55 when a good one is around 1.50. The P/GP Ratios are also high with a median of 2.33 when a ratio over 1.20 is considered high. This is why I would be cautious about this company. It is testing a relatively reasonable, but above the median.

I do not own this stock of Quebecor Inc (TSX-QBR.B, OTC-QBCRF). I thought I should cover another Telcom Stock, so I choice Quebecor. Since I need another stock currently to review, I am reviewing this one with a year end of 2022 and covering 2022 and the third quarter of 2023.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed few of the board members or executives have shares in the company. The company lists Pierre Karl Peladeau as the CEO, but on the INK Research report, it says he ceased to be an insider in October 30, 2015?

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,005.68 you would have bought 104 shares at $9.67 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $431.96 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,140.80. Your total return would have been $3,572.76. This would be a total return of 13.94% per year with 12.06% from capital gain and 1.86% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$9.67	$1,005.68	104	10	$431.96	$3,140.80	$3,572.76

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth currently moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.81%. The 5 year median dividend yield is moderate at 2.61%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 0.61% and 0.73%. The dividend yields were very low, then in 2015 the company started to ram up the dividends, so yields are currently much higher. The dividend increases have been very high lately, with the dividends up 62% per year over the past 5 years. However, the last increase was 9.1% which is a moderate range (8% to 14% ranges).

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 47% with 5 year coverage too high at 669%, but the DPR for AEPS is more important. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 45% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 21% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 29% with 5 year coverage at 43%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	47.06%	669.03%
AEPS	45.17%	32.45%
CFPS	20.90%	13.78%
FCF	28.96%	43.63%

Debt Ratios are a concern. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is fine at 0.78 and currently at 0.96, which is rather high. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is very low at 0.71 and 0.81currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still too low at 1.10 and 1.38. I prefer them at 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is too low at 1.16 and 1.16 currently. I prefer this ratio to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are far too high at 7.83 and 6.74 and currently at 7.58 and 6.51. I prefer these ratios to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.78	0.96
Intang/GW	0.72	0.84
Liquidity	0.71	0.81
Liq. + CF	1.10	1.38
Debt Ratio	1.16	1.16
Leverage	7.83	7.58
D/E Ratio	6.74	6.51

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	62.62%	7.84%	5.06%	2.77%
2012	10	37.41%	13.93%	12.07%	1.86%
2007	15	23.60%	8.93%	7.70%	1.27%
2002	20	21.48%	12.58%	11.31%	1.28%
1997	25	13.56%	7.46%	6.41%	1.04%
1992	30	13.30%	7.83%	6.84%	0.99%
1990	32		10.23%	9.02%	1.26%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.55, 13.07 and 14.59. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.76, 13.48 and 15.19. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.23, 12.25 and 13.27. The current P/E Ratio is 11.84 based on a stock price of $33.03 and EPS estimate of $2.97. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.70, 13.24 and 14.78. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.40, 13.61 and 13.08. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 11.12 based on a stock price of $33.03 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $2.97. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $22.01. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.91, 2.23 and 2.48. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.50 based on a stock price of $33.03. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 7.12. The current ratio is 4.55 based on a stock price of $33.03, Book Value of $1,675M, and Book Value per Share of $7.25. The current ratio is 36% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. But note how high the P/B Ratio is at 4.55. In theory the breakup value of this company is $7.25 per share, but the stock price is $33.03. This is not particularly good.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.64. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.25 based on Cash Flow for the past 12 months of $1,452M, Cash Flow per Share of $6.29 and a stock price of $33.03. The current ratio is 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.73%. The current dividend yield is 3.63% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $33.03. The current dividend yield is 398% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, it was the company’s radically increase the dividends in the pass little while. You have to therefore wonder how good this test is.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.61%. The current dividend yield is 3.63% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $33.03. The current dividend yield is 495% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, it was the company’s radically increase the dividends in the pass little while. You have to therefore wonder how good this test is also.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.35. The current P/S Ratio is 1.39 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $5,409M, Revenue per Share of $23.42 and a stock price of $33.03. The current ratio is 4.6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but be cautious. The dividend yield tests say the stock price is cheap. The P/S Ratio testing saying it is reasonable and above the median does not confirm the dividend yield tests and for a good reason. Dividends have skyrocket recently. The Price/Graham Price Ratio test is saying the stock price is cheap, but the ratios are very high. Generally speaking, a high P/GP Ratio is anything over 1.20 and the median P/GP Ratio is 2.23. I do not like the very high Price/Book Value Ratios also.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5) and Buy (10). The Consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $39.52 with a low of $35.00 and a high of $46.00. The consensus price of $39.52 implies a total return of 23.28% with 19.65% from capital gains and 3.63% from dividends.

The latest recommendations on Stock Chase is a buy. There were also lots of buy recommendations for last year. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool says to buy for income and growth. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this company is a top performing Telcom. The company put out a Press Release on their 2022 year end results. The company put out a Press Release on their third quarter of 2023.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and thinks it is a buy. They have one risk of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Quebecor primarily provides telecom services in Quebec, where it has internet subscribers’ and mobile subscribers. With the acquisition of Freedom Mobile in April 2023, Quebecor got mobile subscribers in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta. Quebecor also offers a French-language subscription video on demand service and has a media segment that owns and operates television stations, publishes newspapers and magazines, and produces and distributes films and television shows. A very small portion of Quebecor's business engages in live event production and promotion and has ownership of live-event venues. Its web site is here Quebecor Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 31, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about BMO and Metro .... learn more on Tuesday, January 30, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Exco Technologies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Exco Technologies Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? For 2023 Revenue is up 26% and it is expected to go up again in 2024 by 8.8%. Net Income for 2023 was up 39% and is expected to go up 30% in 2024. EPS was up 39% in 2023 and is expected to go up 28% in 2024. So, it would appear that the company is recovering. The stock price is testing as cheap.

I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that there has not been much in the way of growth over the past 5 year. In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. This shows growth over the past 5 years is lower than over the past 10 years for most items. It also shows better growth is expected over the next year. Cash Flow growth is weak.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year	Gwth	Coverage
5	Revenue Growth	7.60%	1.48%	4.68%	<-12 mths
5	AEPS Growth	-32.00%	-7.42%	11.76%	<-12 mths
5	Net Income Growth	-37.82%	-9.06%	11.96%	<-12 mths
5	Cash Flow Growth	19.12%	3.56%
5	Dividend Growth	25.37%	4.63%	0.00%	<-12 mths
5	Stock Price Growth	-21.06%	-4.62%	-2.14%	<-12 mths
10	Revenue Growth	153.18%	9.73%	8.83%	<-this year
10	AEPS Growth	11.48%	1.09%	27.94%	<-this year
10	Net Income Growth	11.22%	1.07%	30.06%	<-this year
10	Cash Flow Growth	154.19%	9.78%	-20.06%	<-this year
10	Dividend Growth	143.48%	9.31%	0.00%	<-this year
10	Stock Price Growth	15.30%	1.43%	-2.14%	<-this year

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,008.00 you would have bought 120 shares at $8.40 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $396.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $945.60. Your total return would have been $1,341.60. This is a total return would be a total return of 3.32% per year with 0.64% from capital loss and 3.95% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$8.40	$1,008.00	120	10	$396.00	$945.60	$1,341.60

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.59%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.57%, 3.79% and 2.97%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 4.6% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 5%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 62% with 5 year coverage at 56%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is fine at 62% with 5 year coverage at 54%. This DPR is expected to improve over the next 2 years. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 23% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 85% with 5 year coverage at 101%. Problem again with FCF, sites do not agree and none agree with the company.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	61.76%	56.16%
AEPS	61.76%	53.85%
CFPS	23.27%	26.83%
FCF	85.17%	101.35%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.36. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.48 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.54. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.65 and 0.65.

Type	Year End
Lg Term R	0.36
Intang/GW	0.33
Liquidity	2.48
Liq. + CF	2.87
Debt Ratio	2.54
Leverage	1.65
D/E Ratio	0.65

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	4.63%	1.88%	-2.69%	4.57%
2013	10	9.31%	3.32%	-0.64%	3.95%
2008	15	12.96%	21.79%	13.82%	7.97%
2003	20	11.23%	3.76%	1.17%	2.60%
1998	25		7.35%	4.70%	2.65%
1993	30		5.80%	3.79%	2.00%
1990	33		11.73%	9.06%	2.67%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.19, 11.64 and 13.09. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.79, 12.40 and 14.38. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.06, 12.49 and 15.68. The current P/E Ratio is 8.63 based on a stock price of $7.51 and EPS for 2024 of $0.87. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.91, 10.83 and 12.75. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.94, 11.24 and 12.92. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 8.63 based on AEPS fir 2024 of $0.87 and a stock price of $7.51. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Note that the AEPS do not always vary from the EPS. AEPS and EPS have been the same less often than they have been different.

I get a Graham Price of $13.66. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.78 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.55 based on a stock price of $7.51. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 0.79 based on a stock price of $7.51, Book Value of $371M and Book Value per Share of $9.53. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.82. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.28 based on Cash Flow estimate for 2024 of $46.5M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.19 and a stock price of $7.51. The current ratio is 19.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is very close to cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.97%. The current dividend yield is 5.59% based on a stock price of $7.51 and dividends of $.42. The current dividend yield is 88% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.79%. The current dividend yield is 5.59% based on a stock price of $7.51 and dividends of $.42. The current dividend yield is 47% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.66. The current P/S Ratio is 0.43 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $674M, Revenue per Share of $17.32 and a stock price of $7.51. The current ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests are showing the stock price as relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio test is confirming the stock price as cheap. Most of the testing is showing the stock price as cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find a Buy (1) recommendation only. Alpha Spread gives a 12 month stock price of $13.01, with high of $13.39 and low of $12.88. Market Screener has a 12 month stock price consensus of $12.75 with high and low at the same price as there is only one target price. Yahoo Finance has Buy (2) recommendations with one target price of $12.75.

Let’s go with the Alpha Spread’s target price of $13.01 and that implies a total return of $78.83 with 73.24% from capital gains and 5.59% from dividends. If we go with the other target of $12.75, this implies a total return of $75.37% with 69.77% from capital gains and 5.59% from dividends.

There are not recent recommendations on Stock Chase . In past reports, analysts like this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. It is not on my dividend lists. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool thinks you should buy this stock as it is selling at a discount. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks you should buy this stock for long term gains. The company put out a Press Release on their results for 2023 year end.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance say they are not impressed with this stock. Simply Wall Street gives out two warnings of earnings have declined by 9.7% per year over past 5 years; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Exco Technologies Ltd is a designer, developer, and manufacturer of dies, moulds, components and assemblies, and consumable equipment for the die-cast, extrusion, and automotive industries. The company reports in two business segments namely, the Casting and Extrusion segment and Automotive Solutions segment. It generates maximum revenue from the Automotive Solutions segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States and also has its presence in Canada, Europe, Asia, and other regions. Its web site is here Exco Technologies Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Quebecor Inc (TSX- QBR.B, OTC- QBCRF) ... learn more on Monday, January 29, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Enghouse Systems Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on Enghouse Systems Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The company has done well for its shareholders in the past. Growth has slowed down, but analysts expect some pickup this year. There is the problem with the ratios being high. See the next two paragraphs. The result of the testing is showing that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The problem I see with stock is that the ratios are quite high. For example, the current P/E Ratio is 22.41 where 20.00 is considered on the high side. Another example is the P/GP Ratio where 1.00 is considered to be normal and a high ratio to be 1.20 and above and for this stock it is 1.92. The current ratios are below the median for this stock which can sometimes be justified for fast growing companies, and especially tech companies. The question is, does this company have the sort of growth to justify its high ratios? Generally speaking, Tech companies do have rather high ratios when compared to other sectors.

In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. This shows growth over the past 5 years is lower than over the past 10 years for most items. It also shows better growth is expected over the next year.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year	Gwth	Coverage
5	Revenue Growth	32.43%	5.78%	2.86%	<-12 mths
5	EPS Growth	24.17%	4.42%	6.87%	<-12 mths
5	Net Income Growth	31.33%	5.60%	5.54%	<-12 mths
5	Cash Flow Growth	17.35%	3.25%
5	Dividend Growth	138.24%	18.96%	8.64%	<-12 mths
5	Stock Price Growth	-11.89%	-2.50%	14.25%	<-12 mths
10	Revenue Growth	152.39%	9.70%	7.04%	<-this year
10	EPS Growth	184.78%	11.03%	26.72%	<-this year
10	Net Income Growth	196.74%	11.49%	17.65%	<-this year
10	Cash Flow Growth	256.33%	13.55%
10	Dividend Growth	458.62%	18.77%	8.64%	<-this year
10	Stock Price Growth	134.67%	8.90%	14.25%	<-this year

I do not own this stock of Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF). This stock has been recommended by Keystone Financial Publishing as a good Small Cap tech stock with dividend.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed analysts expected the EPS to drop 11%, but it dropped 23%. Now analysts expect the EPS to go up by 27% this year. The lower EPS is accounted for by the company providing a Provision for Income Taxes. This company has little debt and a strong Balance Sheet.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,003.45 you would have bought 61 shares at $16.45 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $352.58 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,141.10. Your total return would have been $2,493.68. This is a total return would be a total return of 10.07% per year with 7.87% from capital gain and 2.20% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$16.45	$1,003.45	61	10	$352.58	$2,141.10	$2,493.68

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.37%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.13%, 1.03% and 1.25%. The dividend growth is good (15% and over) at 19% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 15.6%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 62% with 5 year coverage at 58%. A problem is that the DPRs for EPS are going up, but analysts expect them to moderate over the next couple of years. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 32% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 39% with 5 year coverage at 43%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	61.83%	57.96%
CFPS	31.86%	32.99%
FCF	39.19%	42.95%

Debt Ratios are good. The company has little and has had little long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.77. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 3.43. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.41 and 0.41.

Type	Year End
Lg Term R	0.00
T. Lg Term R	0.02
Intang/GW	0.22
Liquidity	1.77
Liq. + CF	2.13
Debt Ratio	3.43
Leverage	1.41
D/E Ratio	0.41

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	18.96%	3.73%	1.12%	2.62%
2013	10	18.77%	10.07%	7.87%	2.20%
2008	15	20.40%	23.86%	20.45%	3.41%
2003	20		12.91%	11.40%	1.51%
1998	25		13.85%	12.58%	1.27%
1995	28		13.18%	12.08%	1.10%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.33, 32.80 and 42.49. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.94, 32.82 and 41.38. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.72, 23.12 and 30.40. The current P/E Ratio is 22.41 based on a stock price or $37.20 and EPS estimate for 2024 of 1.66. The current ratio is below the 1ow ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $19.37. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.16, 2.69 and 3.41. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.92 based on a stock price of $37.20. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.17. The current P/B Ratio is 3.70 based on Book Value of $555M, Book Value per Share of $10.05 and a stock price of $37.50. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 21.37. The current P/CF Ratio is 17.83 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $115M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.09 and a stock price of $37.20. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.25%. The current dividend yield is 2.37% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $37.20. The current dividend yield is 89% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 103%. The current dividend yield is 2.37% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $37.20. The current dividend yield is 130% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.29. The current P/S Ratio is 4.23 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $486M, Revenue per Share of $8.80 and a stock price of $37.20. The current ratio is 20% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. The dividend yield tests point to the stock price being cheap. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the other tests are also showing the stock price as relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months stock price consensus is $39.33 with a high of $43.00 and low of $37.00. The consensus price of $39.33 implies a total return of 8.09% with 5.73% from capital gains and 2.37% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this stock, but not everyone thinks it is a Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on the dividend lists that I follow. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is a great stock to buy and hold and make money. Robin Brown on Motley Fool says this company should be bought for your TFSA. The company issued a press release on Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2023.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. They list one risk of Significant insider selling over the past 3 months. (However, when I reviewed INK it appears that the CEO did sell some stock, but mostly the problem is that the insiders are not picking up stock options.)

Enghouse Systems Ltd is a Canada-based provider of software and services to a variety of end markets. The firm's operations are organized in two segments namely, the Interactive Management Group and the Asset Management Group. It earns majority of its revenue from Interactive Management Group. The firm has operations in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, excluding Scandinavia, Germany, Asia-Pacific and other. Its web site is here Enghouse Systems Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more on Friday, January 26, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Desjardins Top Picks 2023.... learn more on Thursday, January 25, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Transcontinental Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Some Debt Ratios are in need improving and others are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth non-existent, but they are expected in the future. See my spreadsheet on Transcontinental Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It all depends on why you buy a stock. I bought this stock for its dividend and it pays a good dividend in the 5% to 6% range. I do currently like dividend growth stocks, but I invested in the past for various reasons. It is in my TFSA, which is my fooling around money. I see no reason to sell this at the present time. Although, I must admit that analysts keep thinking this stock will make a strong recovery and it does not. The stock price seems cheap.

I own this stock of Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF). This is a dividend growth stock. It was on a number of dividend lists. However, it fell on hard times after 2008, but was recovering but then hit another low in 2019 and its recovery is uneven. It is was on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index when I bought it in 2015.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the stock price has been going down over the past two years. They also have not raised their dividends since 2020.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,008.78 you would have bought 69 shares at $14.62 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $558.90 in dividends. The stock would be worth $945.30. Your total return would have been $1,504.20. This is a total return would be a total return of 4.95% per year with 0.65% from capital loss and 5.60% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$14.62	$1,008.78	69	10	$558.90	$945.30	$1,504.20

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth non-existent, but they are expected in the future. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% range) at 6.54%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.98% and 4.22%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.97%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 90.9% but better at 5 year coverage at 59%. It is expected to be 43% in 2024. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 44% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 19% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 26% with 5 year coverage at 32%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	90.91%	59.30%
AEPS	44.33%	38.44%
CFPS	19.00%	17.22%
FCF	26.44%	32.82%

Some Debt Ratios are in need improving and others are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is too high at 1.06 and better currently at 0.76. You want this under 1.00 and best under 0.50. The Intangible and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is goo high at 1.86 and currently at 1.33. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.09. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is fine at 1.68 and 1.68 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.94 and 0.94.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	1.06	0.76
Intang/GW	1.86	1.33
Liquidity	2.09	2.09
Liq. + CF	2.84	2.55
Debt Ratio	2.06	2.06
Leverage	1.94	1.94
D/E Ratio	0.94	0.94

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	1.63%	-8.38%	-13.97%	5.60%
2013	10	4.49%	1.18%	-4.77%	5.95%
2008	15	2.49%	5.45%	-1.03%	6.48%
2003	20	9.75%	0.35%	-3.68%	4.03%
1998	25	10.17%	7.08%	1.98%	5.10%
1993	30	8.89%	6.10%	1.93%	4.17%
1988	35		8.94%	4.52%	4.42%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.05, 11.08 and 13.12. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.31, 9.73 and 11.66. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.26, 13.12 and 15.38. The current P/E Ratio is 6.65 based on a stock price of $13.77 and EPS estimate for 2024 of 2.07. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.30, 7.11 and 8.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.29, 7.40 and 8.58. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 6.65 based on a stock price of $13.77 and AEPS of $2.07. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $31.97. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.51, 0.65 and 0.77. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.43 based on a stock price of $13.77. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.19. The current P/B Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $13.77, Book Value of $1,901M, and Book Value per Share of $21.95. The current ratio is 47% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate of $22.30 for 2024. This implies a ratio of 0.62 based on a stock price of $13.77 and Book Value of $1,931M. This ratio is 48% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.03. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.74 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $3.68, Cash Flow of $319M, and a stock price of $13.77. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.97%. The current dividend yield is 6.54% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $13.77. The current dividend yield is 232% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The company used to have very low dividend yields.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.22%. The current dividend yield is 6.54% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $13.77. The current dividend yield is 55% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.63. The current P/S Ratio is 0.41 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $2,920M, Revenue per Share of $33.71 and a stock price of $13.77. The current ratio is 35% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The 10 year median dividend yield test says this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the rest of the testing is saying the same thing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $17.70, with a high of $21.50 and low of $14.00. The consensus stock price implies a total return of 35.08% with 28.54% from capital gains and 6.54% from dividends.

Last year when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Buy (3) and Hold (3) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price of $21.50. This implies a total return of $47.08% with 41.17% from capital gains and 5.91% from dividends based on a current stock price of $15.23. What happened was a drop in price to $13.77 and a loss of 3.68% with a capital loss of 9.59% and dividends of 5.91%.

The year before when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price was $26.50. This implied a total return of 37.14% with 32.63% from capital gains and 4.50% from dividends based on a stock price of $19.98. What happened was a drop in price to $15.23 and a loss of 19.27% with a capital loss of 23.77% and dividends of 4.50%. So, this is the third year in a row that analysts expected a strong price rise.

All the analysts’ recommendations on Stock Chase in 2023 are a sell. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool likes this stock for its strong dividend. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool likes this stock because it is a strong dividend provider. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2023.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street lists 4 risks of large one-off items impacting financial results; profit margins (2.9%) are lower than last year (4.8%); dividend of 6.6% is not well covered by earnings; and has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Transcontinental Inc is a Canadian printer and flexible packaging provider that operates in three segments: packaging, printing, and other. The smaller other segment focuses on the media sector, which generates revenue from print and digital publishing products. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 24, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Evaluate a Stock.... learn more on Tuesday, January 23, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Even though this stock is off the lowest of 2023, it is still quite reasonably priced. This is not my favourite bank; however, shareholders have done reasonably well with this bank (see total return chart below). It is on the Money Sense Dividend and Dividend Aristocrat lists that I follow. Stock price testing says the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

I do not own this stock of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM). This was the only major Canadian Bank I was not following. I thought I should so I started to track this stock in 2017.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that since its low in October 2023, the stock price of this bank has climbed 27%. Year to date, this bank is down around 4%.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,043.28 you would have bought 23 shares at $45.36 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $621.92 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,419.10. Your total return would have been $2,041.02. This is a total return would be a total return of 8.48% per year with 3.45% from capital gain and 5.01% from dividends. These calculations take into consideration stock splits.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$45.36	$1,043.28	23	10	$621.92	$1,419.10	$2,041.02

If you had invested in this company in December 1993, for $1,001.88 you would have bought 121 shares at $8.28 per share. In December 2023, after 30 years you would have received $5,921.14 in dividends. The stock would be worth $7,465.70. Your total return would have been $13,386.84. This is a total return would be a total return of 12.88% per year with 7.04% from capital gain and 5.83% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$8.28	$1,001.88	121	30	$5,921.14	$7,465.70	$13,386.84

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.67%. The 5 year median dividend yield is good at 5.65%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.83% and 4.61%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is low (below 8%) at 5.3% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 2.35%. However, this bank has often raised dividends 2 or 3 times in a year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 67% with 5 year coverage at 54%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is fine at 51% with 5 year coverage at 49%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is fine at 40% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 21% with 5 year coverage at 12%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	66.67%	53.88%
AEPS	51.19%	49.04%
CFPS	40.44%	42.98%
FCF	20.30%	12.03%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.81. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is not important for banks. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 5.07. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is fine for a bank at 1.06 and it is the most important one.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R A	0.81	0.81
Lg Term R	15.88	12.66
Intang/GW	0.18	0.14
Liquidity	5.07	5.07
Liq. + CF	5.88	5.88
Debt Ratio	1.06	1.06

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 40 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	5.28%	10.14%	4.65%	5.50%
2013	10	6.12%	8.48%	3.47%	5.01%
2008	15	4.65%	12.31%	6.29%	6.02%
2003	20	7.43%	8.05%	3.51%	4.54%
1998	25	7.23%	9.72%	4.96%	4.76%
1993	30	8.13%	12.88%	7.04%	5.83%
1988	35	7.38%	12.32%	6.89%	5.42%
1983	40	6.67%	13.18%	7.26%	5.91%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.23, 10.57 and 12.46. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.46, 10.33 and 11.47. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.23, 9.74 and 11.06. The current P/E ratio is 9.50 based on a stock price of $61.37 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $6.46. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.97, 8.70 and 10.47. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.83, 9.32 and 10.63. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 9.37 based on a stock price of $61.37 and AEPS for 2024 of $6.55. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $87.22. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.79 and 0.90. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.70 based on a stock price of $61.37. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.47. The current P/B Ratio is 1.19 based on a Book Value of $48,058M, Book Value per Share of $51.61 and a stock price of $61.37. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $54.90. This implies a ratio of 1.12 based on stock price of $61.37 and a Book Value of $51,117M. This ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.59. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.70 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $12,154, Cash Flow per Share of $13.05 and stock price of $61.37. the current ratio is 81% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, analysts tend to ignore cash flows for banks.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.61%. The current dividend yield is 5.67% based on dividends of $3.48 and a stock price of $61.37. The current dividend yield is 23% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.83%. The current dividend yield is 5.67% based on dividends of $3.48 and a stock price of $61.37. The current dividend yield is 17% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.76. The current P/S Ratio is 2.37 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $24,141M, Revenue per Share of $25.93 and a stock price of $61.37. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. The 10 year median dividend yield test says this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The historical median dividend yield test says the stock price is cheap. Most of the other testing is saying that the stock price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3), Hold (9) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $63.00 with a high of $71.00 and a low of $50.00. The consensus stock price implies a total return of 8.33% with 5.67% from dividends and 2.66% from capital gains.

The two recommendations on Stock Chase for this stock in 2024 are Buys, but late in 2023 there were two Do Not Buys Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks now is the time to buy this stock. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool discusses how to get $1.2M in a TFSA in 10 years with this stock. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their 2023 annual results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance put out a report on this bank. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. They have one risk factor of Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is Canada's fifth-largest bank and operates three business segments: retail and business banking, wealth management, and capital markets. It serves approximately 11 million personal banking and business customers, primarily in Canada. Its web site is here Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

The last stock I wrote about was about was National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... learn more on Monday, January 22, 2024 around 5 pm.

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