Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Brookfield Asset Management Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. On a lot of tests this is showing as being expensive. Sales have been increasing faster than EPS, in fact EPS has been going down until this year. This is the problem with this stock at present and can be considered to be a negative. However, this might also suggest that the stock price is more reasonable than it first seems. See my spreadsheet on Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

I do not own this stock of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM). I used to own an earlier version of this stock as Hees International, then Edper Group and then EdperBrascan back in 1987 to 1999.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed Revenues increased by some 67%. They seem to have bought a number of companies this past year. Revenue is going up with earnings going dowe over past 3 years. However, analysts do expect that earnings will start to increase in this year. The second quarterly report says the same thing.

As you can see from the charts below, mostly the dividends have grown better in CDN$ terms, but not always. For the last 15 years dividend growth has been moderate (8% to14% range) with the US$ growth lower than the CDN$ growth over the past 10 years.

Dividend yields range from low (0% to 1% range) to moderate (2% to 3% range). The current dividend yield CDN$ is $1.46% with 5, 10 and historical median yields at 1.49%, 1.67% and 2.43%. Yield were quite high (median around 8.63%) prior to 2000. They have been travelling south ever since.

They can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS in US$ is 42% in 2017 with 5 year coverage at 37%. The DPR for CFPS for 2017 is 9% with 5 year coverage at 20%.

Because this is a Real Estate company, the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio does not really apply. What you want to ensure is that their mortgage debt is covered by cash and investments. I get a Mortgage/Cash & Investment Ratio of 0.74 for 2017 and a current one of 0.79. So, this is fine as you need this to be below 1.00.

The Liquidity Ratio is not considered important, but I do calculate it to be 1.57, which is a good ratio. I get a Debt Ratio of 1.71 which is a good one. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.41 and 1.41 for 2017. These are rather normal for this sort of company.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 30. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

This first chart is the return for the Canadian Shares in CDN$. Shareholders in Canada have done well.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 14.36% 20.74% 17.63% 3.10%
10 8.73% 10.99% 8.84% 2.15%
15 8.76% 18.59% 15.54% 3.05%
20 4.61% 15.50% 12.56% 2.94%
25 3.67% 23.07% 15.23% 7.84%
30 4.21% 12.75% 9.30% 3.45%


This second chart is the US shares in US$ and as you can see, US shareholders have also done well.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 8.84% 15.05% 12.25% 2.80%
10 5.98% 8.28% 6.24% 2.04%
15 10.32% 20.98% 17.16% 3.82%
20 5.19% 16.38% 13.26% 3.12%
25 3.65% 22.46% 15.29% 7.17%
30 4.27% 12.99% 9.42% 3.57%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.61, 14.02 and 15.44. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are 12.69, 15.24 and 16.98. The corresponding historical P/E Ratios are 11.47, 13.67 and 15.44. These are for CDN$. The current P/E Ratio is 27.34 based on a stock price of $53.86 CDN$ and 2018 EPS estimates of $1.97 CDN$ ($1.50 US$). The stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $38.50 CDN$. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 0.92 and 1.02. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.40. The stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.34 CND$. The current P/B Ratio is 1.61 CDN$ based on $32,020M, Book Value per Share of $33.44 and a stock price of $53.86 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is some 21% above the 10 year median ratio. The stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.43%. The current yield is 1.46% CDN$ based on dividends of $0.79 CDN$ and a stock price of $53.86 CDN$. The current dividend is some 40% below the historical median dividend. The stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median dividend yield and the current yield is some 12% below this. The 5 year median is 1.49% and this current one is some 2.05% below this level. No matter how you look at this, the current stock price is high.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.13 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 1.15 US$ based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $34,197M, Revenue per share of $35.72 and a stock price of $40.90, all in US$. The current P/S Ratio is some 1.2% above the 10 year ratio. The stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The stock price testing results, whether in US$ or CDN$ will have basically the same results. On all tests but the P/S Ratio test this stock is showing as expensive. Even on the P/S Ratio it is showing as higher than the median. All the other ratios but the P/S Ratio is driven by earnings. The dividend yield is also about earnings as you want the dividends to increase with earnings.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy (3) recommendations and that is all for this stock. I would have expected it to be better followed. The stock price consensus in US$ is $45.82. This implies a total return of 13.50% with 15.03% from capital gains and 1.47% from dividends based on a current US$ price of $40.90.

Josh Rudnik on Seeking Alpha does an analysis of this company. Kay Ng on Motley Fool likes this stock because of the increasing management fees. Reuben Gregg Brewer on Motley Fool explains the company’s structure. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Mostly they like this company.

Brookfield Asset Management Inc is an alternative asset management company focused on property, renewable energy, infrastructure, and private equity. Its web site is here Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be CCL Industries Inc. (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF) ... learn more on Friday, November 2, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2018 – Keith Richards.... learn more on Thursday, November 1, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, October 29, 2018

Molson Coors Canada

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. It seems rather cheap, but brewing is a mature business. Liquidity Ratio is low and this will make the company vulnerable in hard times. See my spreadsheet on Molson Coors Canada.

I do not own this stock of Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP). In 2008 I did a spreadsheet on this stock as it has recently been recommended and generally, beer companies make good money. Labatt’s was one of the original companies that I purchased and I did very well with it before it was bought out.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I could not find out who is the current chairman. They say that Geoffrey E. Molson stopped being Chairman in May 2017 and that is all I can find. He is listed as Chairman still in 2017 annual report. This stock also reports in US$ and dividends are paid in US$.

For the Canadian Holders of Molson Coors Canada Inc (TSX-TPX.B), Dividend yields are moderate (2% and 3% ranges). The current yield is 2.74%, with 5, 10 and historical median yields are 2.09%, 2.20% and 2.11%.

For Canadians dividends growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) recently but this has to do with the exchange rates. In US$ the dividend growth has stalled and it is currently low. The company stopped raising dividends in 2015. However, analysts think that there might be some increase late this year or in 2019. See charts below for the dividend growth for TSX-TPX.B and NYSE-TAP

They can clearly afford their dividends as the Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is 25% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The DPR for Cash Flow for 2017 is 19% with 5 year coverage at 25%. The DPR for Cash Flow excluding WC for 2017 is 17% with 5 year coverage at 22%. This is in US$.

The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2017 is 0.57 and the currently one is 0.74. These are fine. The Liquidity Ratio is low at just 0.64. This means that the current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If we added in cash flow after dividends it is 1.08. If we also add in the current portion of long term debt it is only 1.37. This is still lower as I would prefer the Liquidity Ratio be 1.50 or higher. Low Liquidity Ratios makes a company vulnerable in bad times.

The Debt Ratio is good at 1.80. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher also. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2017 are 2.29 and 1.27 respectively, with 5 year median ratios at 1.76 and 0.76. These ratios have been higher the last two years, but they are fairly typical for this sort of company.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 21 for CDN$ stock TSX-TPX.B. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Shareholders have done well with this stock over the years.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 9.99% 22.92% 19.77% 3.15%
10 12.52% 9.51% 7.47% 2.05%
15 9.49% 7.65% 5.26% 2.39%
20 7.33% 13.23% 9.88% 3.35%
21 6.97% 12.15% 9.09% 3.06%


This next chart is for US$ stock of NYSE-TAP for the years of 5 to 23. I have more data on the dividends than on the stock price. The US shareholders have also done well over the years.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 5.08% 16.69% 13.91% 2.78%
10 9.87% 8.37% 6.23% 2.14%
15 9.68% 8.76% 6.79% 1.96%
20 9.34% 10.31% 8.24% 2.07%
25-23 7.81% 13.03% 10.43% 2.61%
27 7.22%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.49, 15.40 and 18.21 in CDN$. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 12.30, 14.76 and 17.22. The corresponding historical median ratios 12.30, 15.25 and 18.21. The current P/E Ratio is 12.57 CND$ based on the stock price of $78.40 CDN$ and 2018 EPS of $6.24 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $103.30 CDN$. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 0.92 and 1.04. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.74 CDN$ based on a stock price of $78.40 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.23 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is 0.99 based on Book Value of $17,796M CDN$, Book Value per Share of $78.99 CDN$ and a stock price of $78.40 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is 19% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.11% CDN$. The current dividend yield is 2.74% CDN$ based on a stock price of $78.40 CDN$, dividends of $2.15 CDN$. The current dividend yield is some 30% higher than the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.52 CDN$. The current P/S Ratio is 1.20 CDN$ based on a stock price of $78.40 CDN$, Revenue estimate for 2018 of $14,758M and Revenue per Share of $65.51. The current P/S Ratio is some 53% below 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I did all my stock testing using CDN$. Using US$ you would get similar results. However, if you take the NYSE-TAP stock price using the exchange rate there is often a discrepancy between the NYSE-TAP stock price and the TSX-TPX.B stock price. For example, the current NYSE-TAP price is $56.68 US$ but the TSX=TPX-B stock price is $78.40 CDN$. The current exchange rate is 1.3108 and using this exchange rate times the $56.68 US$ is only $74.30 CDN$.

It would appear from my stock price testing that the stock price is cheap to reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations for NYSE-TAP I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (4), Hold (8) and Sell (1). The consensus is a buy. The 12 month US$ stock price is $73.36. This implies a total return of $32%, with 29.43% from capital gains and 2.89% from dividends.

Olly Wehring on Just Drinks talks about Molson Coors doing a cannabis joint venture. Beth Newhart on Beverage Daily talks about the company constructing a modern brewing site in Canada. Jason Phillips on Motley Fool thinks these shares are underpriced. See what analysts think about this stock on Stock Chase. there is only one entry for TPX.B and the analysts is wondering why the stock are 40% off since last year. There are more analysts entry for NYSE-TAP on Stock Chase. Analysts seem to feel that Brewing are struggling with declining consumption in a mature industry.

Molson Coors Canada Inc is a brewer that produces and sells beer and other malt beverages. The company offers its products across the world under various brands which include Coors Light, Staropramen, Carling, Miller Lite, Keystone, and Creemore Springs. Its web site is here Molson Coors Canada.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX-BAM.A, NYSE-BAM) ... learn more on Wednesday, October 31, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2018 – Paul Philip.... learn more on Tuesday, October 30, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, October 26, 2018

Pason Systems Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. I think that the stock price is relatively cheap. It has good debt ratios. The CEO and CFO are not among those insiders selling. See my spreadsheet on Pason Systems Inc.

I do not own this stock of Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF). I read a report on this stock in the Buy and Sell Advisor in September 2013. I had not heard of this dividend growth company before so I decided to investigate it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there is still a lot of red ink, but things are improving. This company has very good debt ratios. There is no long term debt and the Liquidity Ratio is 5.68 where a good ratio is 1.50 or above. On the other hand, there is a relatively large amount of insider selling, but the CEO and CFO are not selling and there only a small amount of insider selling by the Chairman.

The dividend yields are in the moderate range (2 and 3% ranges). The current dividend is 3.66%, with 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields at 3.42%, 2.63% and 2.29%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% range) to good (over 15%) over the past 13 years for which dividends have been paid. However, growth has been low recently. There were no increases in 2016 and 2017. The last increase was in 2018 and it was for 5.9%. Dividends have been paid over the past 13 years.

The short answer is currently they cannot afford their dividends. I understand why they continue as companies that cut dividends are treated harshly by dividend investors. The last time they could afford dividends was in 2014. They are not expected to be able to afford dividends again until 2019. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 was 226% with 5 year coverage of 256%. The DPR for 2018 is expected to be 116% and for 2019, it is expected to be 94%.

The DPR for CFPS is higher than what I would like with 2017 payout ratio at 66% with 5 year coverage at 49%. This is also expected to get lower next year. I prefer the DPR for CFPS to be 40% or less but they are covering the dividends. It has been a long slow recovery from the 2008 recession and this recover has been hard on a lot of companies.

They have very good debt ratios. This is important for companies as it means that they can survive in hard times. They have no long term debt so the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio 5.68. The Debt Ratio is 7.82. These are great ratios because good ratios start at 1.50 or above.

The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.15 and 0.15 respectively, with 5 year median ratios at 1.21 and 0.21.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 21. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

They have had problems lately and total return is low for the past 5 years.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 10.12% 4.91% 1.18% 3.73%
10 15.57% 6.87% 3.83% 3.04%
13-15 20.53% 16.43% 12.79% 3.64%
20 15.59% 12.96% 2.63%
21 21.66% 18.28% 3.37%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.86, 21.00 and 26.15. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.60, 19.90 and 25.21. The historical ratios are 13.24, 19.22 and 23.95. The current P/E Ratio is 32.80 based on a stock price of $19.68 and 2018 EPS estimate of $0.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $7.54. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.75, 2.15 and 2.61. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.61 based on a stock price of $19.68. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median and almost expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.40. The current P/B Ratio is 4.68 based on Book Value of $359M, Book Value per Share of $4.21 and a stock price of $19.68. The current P/B Ratio is some 38% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.29%. The current dividend yield is 3.66% based on a stock price of $19.68 and dividends of $0.70. The current yield is some 60% above the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.41. The current P/S Ratio is 5.66 based on Revenue, of $297M, Revenue per Share of $3.48 and a stock price of $19.68. The current ratio is some 28% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

This is a hard stock to valuate the stock price. Ratios are high because this stock has experienced problems and it is associated with the oil and gas industry in Canada. For a company for which the earnings drop you are going to see high ratios. That is because the price does not drop as much as the earnings. Investor realize (or are not stupid enough) to go too low on the price because that would not reflect the real value of a company that has temporary problems.

Things are improving both Revenue wise and earnings wise for this company. The price of the shares is some 35% below the last high. The debt ratios are very good. The dividend yield test is showing this stock as relatively cheap. I think that this stock is at a very good current price. The recent dividend increase shows that management is expecting to earn more in the future.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy (2) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $22.67. This implies a total return of $18.35 with 15.19% from capital gains and $3.66% from dividends.

Brandy Kinsey on Simply Wall Street says that the P/E Ratio on this stock is very high because investors are overvaluing the company’s earnings. However, what investors are doing are recognizing that earnings have been low and they are not stupid enough to lower the price too much for a temporary period of low earnings. Lisa Matthews on Fairfield Current talks about some recent analysts remarks. Simon Ball on Bay City Observer says that the company has a Book to Market of 0.2135 where a value less than 1 says a company is undervalued.. Brian Pacampara on Motley Fool likes this company because it has no long term debt. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They like the company but some feel it is too expensive.

Pason Systems Inc provides data management systems for drilling rigs. Its products include electronic drilling recorder, pit volume totalizer, communications, data hub software, automatic driller,gas analyzer/total gas system & hazardous gas alarm system. Its web site is here Pason Systems Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP) ... learn more on Monday, October 29, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

North West Company

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Stock price testing seems to show that price is reasonable and around the median. Insiders are buying. See my spreadsheet on North West Company.

I do not own this stock of North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the Money Show of 2009. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Income Trust being currently good buys with very good yields. This stock changed from an income trust to a corporation in 2011.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the Selling and Admin expenses are growing faster than Revenue for the past year and this is also true for the past 5 years. Revenue grew last year at 5.95%, but Expenses grew by 11.51%. Over the past 5 years revenue has grown by 29.08%, but expenses by 35.61%. This has happened 4 out of the past 5 years.

I also noted that the financial year ends at the end of January each year. However, the annual statement dated January 31, 2018 is showing online as the annual statement for 2017.

Dividend yields are good (4% to5% range). The current dividend yield is 4.53% with 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields at 4.49%, 4.78% and 5.14%. The dividend yields were higher in the past because this company spent time as an income trust. It changed to a corporation in 2011 and decreased the dividends by almost 30%. It seems to have changed to an income trust in 1996 but there was no big increase in dividends until 1999.

The dividend growth has been low lately. The 5 to 15 year growth rates are affected by the drop in dividends in 2011 of 30%. However, the increases have also been low 2005 and in the 3% range. The last increase was in 2018 and was for 3.2%. The 20 to 26 durations dividend growth rates are affected by the 153% increase in 1999. The low recent growth might be due to high current Dividend Payout Ratio.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for this company seems to have been high since 2000. They have been able to cover their dividends but payout was in the 70 and 80% ranges. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 94% with 5 year coverage at 86%. I would like to see this lower. The DPR for CFPS is better with the one for 2018 at 36% with 5 year coverage at 37%. I like to see this coverage at 40% or less.

The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is low at 0.22 (anything below 1.00 is fine). The Liquidity Ratio is good at 1.96 for the 2018 financial year. The 5 year median ratio is 2.10. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.70 and its 5 year median is 1.83. For both these ratios you want them to be at 1.50 or higher. So, these ratios are good.

The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.52 and 1.48 respectively for 2018 with 5 year medians of 2.20 and 1.20. These ratios are normal for this sort of company.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 26. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

The shareholders have done very well by this stock. Long term shareholders certainly have with 26 year total return of 11.38%.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 4.24% 10.85% 6.08% 4.77%
10 2.20% 8.77% 3.69% 5.08%
15 6.47% 18.61% 10.28% 8.33%
20 12.04% 19.97% 10.72% 9.25%
25 9.93% 12.39% 7.40% 4.99%
29-26 9.19% 11.38% 6.85% 4.54%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.12, 18.89 and 20.67. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.45, 17.65 and 19.75. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.96, 12.67 and 15.03. The current P/E Ratio is 16.53 based on a stock price of $28.27 and 2019 EPS estimate of 1.71. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and probably below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $17.36. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.47, 1.68 and 1.84. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.63 based on a stock price of $28.27. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.56. The current B/P Ratio is 3.61 based on Book Value of $381M, Book Value per Share of $7.83 and a stock price of $28.27. The current ratio is 1.39% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.98%. The current dividend yield is 4.53% based on dividends of $1.28 and a stock price of $28.27. The current dividend yield is 9.08% below the historical one. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Since this stock used to be an income trust and income trust tend to have higher dividend yields it would be better to do this test from the time the company became a corporation which is 2011. This dividend yield median is 4.53%. The current yield is the same at 4.53%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.70. The current P/S Ratio is 0.69 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $1992M, Revenue per Share of $40.91 and a stock price of $28.27. The current P/S Ratio is 1.74% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy (2) and Hold (4) recommendations. The consensus recommendation out be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $32.17. this implies a total return of 18.32% based on capital gains of 13.80% and dividends at 4.53% based on a current stock price of $28.27.

The company on Market Wired talks about the change in shares to variable and common voting shares. Erna Eldridge on Simply Wall Street talks about dividends, but I have no idea where he gets his information from as he said they have paid a dividend for 1 years, but my records shows at least 29 years of dividends. Will Ashworth of Motley Fool likes this stock. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They have various comments, but one says that they bought an Airline (June 2017). I missed that.

The North West Co Inc is a retailer of food and everyday products and services to rural communities and urban neighborhoods in Canada, Alaska, the South Pacific, and the Caribbean. Its web site is here North West Company.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Pason Systems Inc. (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF) ... learn more on Friday, October 26, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2018 – Susan Mallin.... learn more on Thursday, October 25, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, October 22, 2018

Equitable Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. It is selling at a reasonable price that is below the median. It has risks because of who they have mortgages with. See my spreadsheet on Equitable Group Inc.

I do not own this stock of Equitable Group Inc (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF). I had read a glowing report on investing on this company in 2013, so I decided to check it out. It was interesting as it was loaning money to new immigrants, a class of people who generally have a difficult time getting loans and mortgages from our regular banks. It sounded intriguing.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed a lot of green, with bits of blue for values over the past 5 and 10 years and other durations. The EPS growth is good except for the past 10 years for 5 year running averages. This points to the fact the EPS growth for the past 10 years may not be quite as good as it appears. EPS has grown by 12.94% and 14.43% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If I look at the 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years, the growth is 15.45% and 6.89%.

The 10 year 5 year running averages covers the last 5 years compared to the 5 years ending 10 years ago. The last 5 years is to the end of the last financial statement which is December 2017. So, it covers 5 years from 2013 to 2017 inclusive compared to the 5 years from 2003 to 2007 inclusive.

The dividend yield is low. The current dividend is 1.51%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 1.38%, 1.63% and 1.47%. Dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% range) with growth for the past 5, 10 and 12 years at 12.97%, 8.69% and 9.49%. So, the latest growth is the best. Dividends tend to be increased 2 or 3 times a year. The last increase is recent and was by 3.8%.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2017 was 9.8% with 5 year coverage also at 9.8%. So, the answer is that they can afford their dividends.

For financials, there is no point really to compare Long Term Debt to the Market Cap. What you want to compare is the Deposits and Securitization Liabilities to cash and investments. For this bank the Debt/Investments Ratio is running at 0.92. This is fine.

The Liquidity Ratio is quite high for this bank at 7.04, where 1.50 or higher is considered to be a good ratio, but this ratio is really not important for banks. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are very high at 18.13 and 17.13 for 2017. These ratios are considered good if they are below 2.00 or 1.00 respectively. These are not considered to be important ratios either for banks. These ratios are generally very high for banks.

The one that is important for banks is the Debt Ratio and for this bank it is at 1.06 for 2017. You would want this ratio to be 1.04 or higher. This bank has a good debt ratio.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 14. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Shareholders have done well with this stock. Although it has recently done better in the past 5 years than in the past 14.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 12.97% 18.62% 16.97% 1.65%
10 8.69% 10.83% 9.54% 1.29%
14 9.49% 9.55% 8.38% 1.17%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.67, 7.20 and 8.43. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.46, 6.88 and 8.03. The historical ratios are 5.87, 7.10 and 8.57. The P/E Ratios have been quite low. It is not because of negative P/E Ratios as is generally the case for low ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 6.34 based on a stock price of $61.13 and 2018 EPS estimate of $9.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $122.42. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.45, 0.55 and 0.66. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.50 based on a stock price of $61.18. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.03. The current P/B Ratio is 0.89 based on a stock price of $61.18, Book Value of $1140M and a Book Value per Share of $69.03. The current ratio is some 14.00% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.47%. The current dividend yield is 1.77% based on dividends of $1.08 and a stock price of $61.18. The current dividend yield is 20.09% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. A stock is considered cheap when the difference is 20% or greater so it is just at the cheap place.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.43. The current P/S Ratio is 2.94 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $344M, Revenue per Share of $20.82 and a stock price of $61.18. The current ratio is some 14.27% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Buy (4) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $75.38. this implies a total return of 24.98% with 23.21% from capital gains and 1.7% from dividends based on a current price of $61.18.

Cameron Brookes on Simply Wall Street thinks this stock is selling below its intrinsic value. Alfredo Boyd on Northfield Review says this company has a Gross Margin Score of 13 which is good. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool likes this bank at the current price. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Some like this bank and some do not.

Equitable Group Inc is a financial services company. The company through its subsidiary serves retail and commercial customers across Canada providing savings solutions and mortgage lending products. It also runs a digital bank under the EQ Bank brand. Its web site is here Equitable Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Medtronic Inc. (NYSE-MDT) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be North West Company (TSX-NWC, OTC-NWTUF) ... learn more on Wednesday, October 24, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2018 – Fireside Chat.... learn more on Tuesday, October 23, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, October 19, 2018

Medtronic PLC

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Health Care. The stock price is from reasonable to expensive. It is probably on the high side without being too expensive to buy. See my spreadsheet on Medtronic PLC.

I do not own this stock of Medtronic PLC (NYSE-MDT). In 2009 I was looking for a good US stock for my US dollar account. I had heard good things about this stock and also it is in Health Care sector which is a weak sector in Canada. This is one of the few US stocks that I follow.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the financial year ends in April 30 each year. I also noticed shares have increased by 5.92% and 1.87% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Most of the increase was in 2015 due to an acquisition. So, to see what the real growth is you have to look at the per share values.

I see that revenue per share growth over the past 5 years is about the same as over the past 10 years, but EPS growth is much lower and negative. The Revenue per share for the past 5 and 10 years is 6.26% and 6.29% per year. EPS are down by 7.60% per year over the past 5 years, but up by 1.53% over the past 10 years. Because EPS are volatile, the 5 year running averages are probably a better measure. Over the past 5 years, the 5 year running average shows EPS are down by 1.86% and the over the past 10 year, the 5year running average is up by 3.21%.

Currently the dividend yield is moderate. However, it used to be a lot lower. The current dividend yield, 5 year median and 10 year medians are 2.09%, 2.06% and 2.11%. These are moderate dividend yields. However, the historical median dividend yield is low at 0.74%.

Dividend growth is moderate currently, but it used to be high. For the 5 to 15 years, dividend growth is from 12% to 14% growth per year. Prior to this it was 15% to 17% per year. See chart below.

They can cover their dividends with earnings, but for the financial year ending in April 2018 it is high for this sort of company. I would like to see it 60% or lower. For 2018 Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is 81% with 5 year cover at 57%. The 5 year coverage is what counts really so on this basis the coverage is fine. The DPR for CPFS for 2018 is also high at 51% where I would like to see it at 40% or lower. The 5 year coverage is fine at 37%.

All the debt ratios on this stock are quite good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good at 0.22. the Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 2.28 and the Debt Ratio is 2.25. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are good at 1.80 and 0.80 respectively.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 28. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

In most years, this stock has been a good investment for shareholders. For shareholders to bought this stock exactly 10, 15 and 20 years ago, P/E Ratios were high and yields low. These were years of 2008, 2002 and 2098. P/E Ratios were 25.78, 35.08 and 54.17 and Yields were 1.01%, 0.51% and 0.43%. Although the P/E Ratios and yields were not that bad 10 years ago, it was just before the last recession and it took the stock awhile to recover.

This stock was often overvalued of high ratios and low yields, but if you bought it when the price was at least reasonable, I think you would have made money.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 12.09% 17.22% 14.51% 2.71%
10 13.92% 6.69% 4.85% 1.84%
15 14.23% 5.30% 3.88% 1.41%
20 15.13% 7.17% 5.83% 1.34%
25 17.17% 14.21% 12.17% 2.03%
28 17.03% 18.01% 15.30% 2.72%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.02, 29.02 and 32.17. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.04, 19.50 and 24.95. The corresponding historical ratios are 21.91, 26.57 and 31.72. The current P/E Ratio is 25.29 based on a stock price of $95.86 and 2019 EPS estimate of $3.79. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $56.29. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.19, 1.51 and 1.73. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.70 based on a stock price of $95.86. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.28. The current P/B Ratios is 2.58 based on a Book Value of $50,244M, Book Value per Share of $37.16 and a stock price of $95.86. The current ratio is some 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.74. The current dividend yield is 2.09% based on dividends of $2.00 and a stock price of $95.86. The current dividend yield is some 182% above the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

However, the yields have been much higher over the past 10 years. Sometime companies increase their Dividend Payout Ratios and yields as they mature. Certainly, the paying of dividends has changed over the past 10 years. The 10 year dividend yield is 2.11%. The current yield is some 1% above the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.15. The current P/S Ratio is 4.25 based on 2019 Revenues of $30,472M, Revenue per Share of $22.54 and a stock price of $95.86. The current ratio is some 35% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

It would seem from my stock price testing that the stock price might be reasonable, but it is above the median. Certainly, the P/S Ratio is a good one and it is showing the stock as expensive. Even though my favourite test is the dividend yield, I think that using historical dividend yield is probably not a good measure of where the current yield is at now.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (8) and Hold (12). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $103.90. This implies a total return of 10.47% with 8.39% from capital gains and 2.09% from dividends.

Gemma Cottrell on Fairfield Current talks about recent institutional buying and selling of this stock. Kenneth on Wall Street Morning talks about this stocks moving averages and relative strength index. Wealth Insights blogger on Seeking Alpha does a review of this stock. Brian Feroldi on Motley Fool talks about why you should buy this stock. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. they mostly like this company.

Medtronic Public Limited Company, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is among the world's largest medical technology, services, and solutions companies - alleviating pain, restoring health, and extending life for millions of people around the world. The company is focused on collaborating with stakeholders around the world to take healthcare Further, Together. Its web site is here Medtronic PLC.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Equitable Group Inc. (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF) ... learn more on Monday, October 22, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Canadian Pacific Railway

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. I would think that the stock price is probably currently too high to make this stock a buy at the present time. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Pacific Railway.

I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP), but I used to. I am following this stock because it is a dividend growth stock. It is one that was on Mike Higgs' list. It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999 so I am following it. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and chose CN as my railway stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed earnings and stock prices are up nicely (green). Revenue is up, but not as much (blue) and cash flow is mixed (green and blue). Remember that values in my spreadsheets are colour coded. The 5 year total return on this stock is an astonishing 51%.

Dividend yields are low. The current dividend yield is low at just 0.96%. The 5 year median is also low at 0.95%. The 10 year dividend yield and historical dividend yield are also low at 1.28% and 1.43%. The dividend growth is moderate with the 5, 10 and 15 year growth at 10.33%, 8.97% and 9.98% per year.

They have no problem paying for the dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 is 12.93% with 5 year coverage at 16.41%. The DPR for CFPS is 13.27% with 5 year coverage at 11.515.

The debt ratios are fine and not a concern at the present time. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is low at 0.23 in 2017. For this ratio, the lower the better. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.64 in 2017 with 5 year median of 0.91. When this ratio is below 1.00, it means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio is 1.59. This means that to pay current liabilities, the company depends on cash flow.

The Debt Ratio is a little low at 1.47 in 2017 with 5 year median of 1.47. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 3.13 and 2.13 in 2017. The 5 year median values are a bit better at 2.93 and 1.93, respectively.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 23. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

The shareholders of this stock have done well, especially in the past 5 years.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 10.33% 51.10% 48.60% 2.50%
10 8.97% 14.76% 13.59% 1.17%
15 9.98% 15.57% 14.24% 1.34%
20 14.18% 13.20% 0.99%
23 15.32% 14.39% 0.94%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.54, 23.55 and 28.57. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 13.97, 17.01 and 20.06. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.47, 13.64 and 15.98. The current P/E Ratio is 20.00 based on a stock price of $270.01 and 2018 EPS estimate of $13.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $116.97. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.52, 1.82 and 2.08. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.31 based on a stock price of $270.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.12. The current P/B Ratio is 6.00 based on Price Book Value of $6,574M, Book Value per Share of $45.00 and a stock price of $270.01. The current ratio is some 92% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.43%. The current dividend yield is 0.93% based on dividends of $2.60 and a stock price of $270.01. The current yield is some 33% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.55. The current P/S Ratio is 5.49 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $7,192M, Revenue per share of $49.23 and a stock price of $270.01. The current ratio is 54% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

All the testing I have done shows that the stock price is relatively expensive. Even on an absolute basis, the current ratios I have looked at are high. For example, on an absolute basis a P/B Ratio is 6.00 is very high and the P/E Ratio of 20 is on the high side. The stock price would have to be below $200 before you get into the reasonable, but still high stock price range.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy (7), Buy (14) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a buy. The 12 month stock price is $297.33. This implies a total return of 11.08% with 10.12% from capital gains and 0.96% from dividends.

The company reports via the Canadian Press on Cape Breton Post a response about the threat from the Amazon effect. Samuel Prince on Market Realist talks about CP being a top gainer in carload traffic growth. Karen Thomas on Motley Fool thinks there is a lot of growth yet for railway. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They like this stock and feel that there is still growth to come, especially with Canada\s lack of pipelines.

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd is engaged in rail transportation. It provides freight transportation services, logistics solutions, and supply chain expertise in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific Railway.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Medtronic PLC (NYSE-MDT) ... learn more on Friday, October 19, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2018 – David Rosenberg.... learn more on Thursday, October 83, 2018 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Trigon Metals Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Penny Mining Stock. There is no way to value this stock. A positive is that there is lots of insider buy at 0.09% of market cap (where this value is usually 0.01% to 0.02%). Awful debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Trigon Metals Inc.

I own this stock of Trigon Metals Inc (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF). I originally brought this stock in 2000 as Tathacus Resources Ltd. because it was doing interesting things. There was a reverse takeover (RTO) of this company on April 28, 2011 by Pan Terra Industries Inc. Symbol PNT. On May 2, 2012 there was a name change from Pan Terra Industries (PNT) to Kombat Copper Inc. (KBT). On December 22, 2016, stock changed its name and TSX symbol from Kombat Copper Inc. (TSX-KBT, OTC-PNTZF) to Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF)

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they are burning through their cash quickly. They sold more shares to raise money but cash went down by 92%. They issued more shares in the first quarter and now cash is up by 859% or only down by 31% since the prior year. Also, note that the financial year ends at March 31 each year. Insiders are buying that includes Chairman, CEO and CFO.

This stock has no dividends and never did. When I bought this stock in 2000, it was part of a basket of small caps that I was buying at that time. With all the changes my shares went from 300 to 60 to currently 6 shares. With the changes listed above there were to consolidations of stocks, one in 2009 and one in 2016.

They did not have any long term debt until 2018. Currently the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.28. The other debt ratios are not good. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.26. If this ratio is below 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. The Debt Ratio is 0.87. When this ratio is below 1.00, it means that assets cannot cover liabilities. Because equity is negative, Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios cannot be calculated.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 20. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

This certainly has been a loser for me. It is worth to me is less than what it would cost to sell the shares I have.

Years Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 -29.31% -29.31% 0.00%
10 -35.69% -35.69% 0.00%
15 -31.63% -31.63% 0.00%
20 -13.12% -13.12% 0.00%


There are no Price/Earnings per Share Ratios for this stock has it does not have revenue, let alone earnings. With no earnings I cannot calculate a Graham Price. Since the Book Value is now negative, I can do not stock price testing using Price/Book Value per Share Ratio. There are no dividends, so no dividend yield price testing cannot be done. I also cannot do any Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio testing as the company has no revenue.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find no analysts following this stock on any site I looked at.

The company announced via the Junior Mining Network some management and Board appointments. The company talks about new, short term loans via the Junior Mining Network. The company talks about a recent feasibility study on Global News Wire. You can see the feasibility study in a slide show on Seeking Alpha. There are rumors on a buyout for this company on Stock House.

Trigon Metals Inc together with its subsidiaries engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and maintenance of mines and mineral properties in the African country of Namibia. Its web site is here Trigon Metals Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Logistec Corp (TSX-LGT.B, OTC-LTKBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more on Wednesday, October 17, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2018 – Kevin Prins.... learn more on Tuesday, October 16, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, October 12, 2018

Logistec Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock has had a very good run up, but it would seem that the stock price is relatively expensive currently and this may not be the best time to buy this stock. On the other hand, insiders are buying and the latest buys were at $51.89. See my spreadsheet on Logistec Corp.

I do not own this stock of Logistec Corp (TSX-LGT.B, OTC-LTKBF). I got this stock from Dividend Growth Investing and Retirement blogger’s all-star spreadsheet for March 2017. Unfortunately currently you have to sign up for a newsletter to get these spreadsheets.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the company, as of the second quarter has an earning loss. This is because expenses, especially Employee Benefits, increased faster than Revenue even though revenue went up almost 43%. Expense went up 49%.

Dividend yield is currently very low. The current dividend yield is 0.70% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 0.85%. The dividend yield used to be higher. The 10 year median dividend yield is 1.42% and the historical one is 2.01%.

Generally, the dividend increases were low, but they were getting bigger until 2015 with an increase of 19.9%. However, there was no increase in 2016 and the one for 2017 is 9.9%. Prior to the last 5 years, the increases were low (below8%), but over the last 5 years they have averaged 11.8% per year. See the chart below.

They can certainly afford their dividends. The DPR for 2017 for Class B shares is 15% with 5 year coverage of 21%. The Class A and Class B shares each have their own EPS and Dividends. The coverage for Class A is similar to Class B with the DPR for 2017 at 14% and 5 year coverage at 19%. The DPR for Classes A & B for CFPS for 2017 is 11% with 5 year coverage at 17%. These payout ratios are low.

All the debt ratios are good with some excellent. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2017 is 0.22. The Liquidity Ratio for 2017 is 1.79 with 5 year median at 2.25. The Debt Ratio for 2017 is 1.82 with 5 year median of 2.67. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2017 are 2.24 and 1.23 with 5 year medians at 1.76 and 0.66.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 21. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Shareholders have done well, especially lately on Total Return. The stock hit a peak in 2015 and has basically stalled.

Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 11.77% 32.01% 29.58% 2.43%
10 7.90% 16.48% 15.06% 1.42%
15 7.09% 18.52% 16.13% 2.39%
20 5.78% 12.77% 11.13% 1.63%
21 5.75% 16.49% 12.90% 3.59%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.13, 16.87 and 19.62. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.08, 8.85 and 11.62. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.15, 10.44 and 12.24. The current P/E Ratio is 39.50 based on a current stock price of $51.75 and last 12 months EPS of $1.31. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $17.71. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.58, 0.80 and 1.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.92 based on a stock price of $51.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.48. The current P/B Ratio is 2.94 based on Book Value of $225M, Book Value per Share of $17.69 and a stock price of $51.75. The current P/B Ratio is some 98% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.01%. The current dividend yield is 0.70% based on dividends of $0.36 and a stock price of $51.75. The current yield is a value some 65% below the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.75. The current P/S Ratio is 1.21 based on last 12 months Revenue of $545M, Revenue per Share of $42.98 and a stock price of $51.75. The current ratio is some 61% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When looking at ratios for determining what a good stock price is I concentrated on Class B shares as that is what the public buys. The EPS is low in the P/E Ratio test because of earning losses in the first quarter of this year. The earnings losses in 2018 also affects the Graham Price negatively. However, all the tests show that the stock is expensive.

When I look for analysts’ recommendations I find none.

The company talks about a recent acquisition on News Wire. Ambrose O'Callaghan of Motley Fool thinks this is a good dividend stock for 2018. Katie Hansen on the Stock Voice gives some ratios for this stock. She says the Piotroski F-Score is 5 showing the balance sheet is neither strengthening or weakening. Jason Fuller on Simply Wall Street talks about ownership, but seems to have missed the fact that the Paquin family owns Class A shares which are multiple voting shares and control the company.

Logistec Corp provides cargo handling and other services to marine, industrial, and municipal customers. It has facilities in 30 ports in eastern North America. Its web site is here Logistec Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TCK.B, NYSE-TCK) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will Trigon Metals Inc. (TSX-TM, OTC-PNTZF) ... learn more on Monday, October 15, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Teck Resources Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Materials. The current price is quite low and this entry point looks good. However, it certainly has been at better entry points in the past. This is a material stock and I personally do not hold such stocks for the long term. For these stocks buy low and sell high. See my spreadsheet on Teck Resources Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX-TECK.B, NYSE-TECK) but did for a short period. In 2008, I wanted to cover some resource stocks and this is one that I decided to take a look at. The time to buy this stock is when it cuts its dividend. For example, I bought this stock in 2008 and sold in 2009. I bought this stock because the company purchased Fording Canadian Coal Trust at exactly the wrong time and got into financial difficulties and the stock price dropped off a cliff as they had to cut dividends. When the stock recovered somewhat in 2009, I sold for a profit.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they were not doing so well until recently and then things started to look up. The dividends, which had been declining, were increased by 100% in 2017.

This stock is not a good dividend payer nor is it good at dividend growth. The current dividend yield is very low at 0.64%. Dividend yields have jumped all over the place with a high around 11.44% and low around 0.30%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 3.05%, 1.79 and 1.58%.

Dividend growth is negative over the past 5 and 10 years and for longer periods there is a modest increase. However, but this mask big changes in the dividends. The lowest dividend increase was in 2013 at 12.5% and the highest increase was in 2011 at 200%. See growth rates in the table below under Dividend Growth (Div. Gth.)

They mostly can afford their dividends. Last year the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS was 4.67% with a 5 year coverage of 2.26%. Last year the DPR for EPS was 5.62% with 5 year coverage at 284%. This is because of a big earnings loss in 2015. The DPR for CFPS is better with the one for 2017 at 2.31% with 5 year coverage at 12.07%. The DPR for CFPS has always been quite low.

The debt ratios for this stock are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2017 is 0.34. The Liquidity Ratio has mostly been good and the one for 2017 is 1.81 with 5 year median at 2.16. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.11 for 2017 with 5 year median at 2.05. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good with the ones for 2017 at 1.90 and 0.90 respectively and the 5 year medians being 1.94 and 0.94 respectively.

The Total Return per year is show below for years of 5 to 24. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

This stock reached a peak in 2011 that it has not yet come close to since. The long term Total Return is not bad, but shareholders have not made much on this stock lately.

Years Div. Gth. Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
5 -24.21% -0.10% -1.88% 1.78%
10 -14.87% 1.05% -0.63% 1.67%
15 4.73% 16.85% 12.21% 4.64%
20 3.53% 8.10% 5.94% 2.17%
24 2.93% 6.20% 4.50% 1.70%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.61, 10.93 and 19.67. the corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.49, 12.79 and 19.68. The Historical ratios are 9.41, 11.72 and 19.67. The current P/E Ratio is 6.36 based on a stock price of $31.10 and 2018 EPS estimate of $4.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $63.78. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.43, 0.85 ad 1.13. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.49. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.90. The current P/B Ratio is 0.84 based on a stock price of $31.10 and Book Value of $21,245M and Book Value per share of $36.97. The current P/B Ratio is some 6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.58%. The current dividend yield is 0.64% based on dividends of $0.20 and a stock price of $31.10. The current yield is some 59% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.74. The current P/S Ratio is 1.44 based on 2018 Revenue of $12,372, Revenue per Share of $21.53 and a stock price of $31.10. The current ratio is some 17% below the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The low P/E Ratios are very low because the stock has a lot of volatility and the stock has hit some really low lows in the past. A P/E of 6.36 is a low P/E Ratio. You wonder how much faith to put into the dividend yield test because of the past fluctuations in dividends and therefore dividend yield. The P/S Ratio test is often a good one because it is revenue that ultimately drives earnings, cash flow and dividends. It would seem that the stock is on the cheap side, although it has been cheaper in the past and it may be half way to its top.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations I find Strong Buy, (6), Buy (12), Hold (2) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is 41.13. This implies a total return of 32.89% with 0.64% frim dividends and 32.25% from capital gains based on a current price of $31.10.

Dan Healing on the Financial Post talks about Teck’s involvement with Frontier oilsands. Jason Phillips on Motley Fool thinks this stock is trading at a favorable valuation.. See what the analysts are saying about this company on Stock chase. Some think that now is a good time to buy or to start to buy.

Teck Resources Ltd is a mining company whose activities include exploration, development, processing, smelting, refining, and reclamation. It has operations in Canada, United States, Chile, and Peru. The company's products are coal, copper, zinc, and lead. Its web site is here Teck Resources Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Linamar Corporation (TSX-LNR, OTC-LIMAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Logistec Corp (TSX-LGT.B, OTC-LTKBF) ... learn more on Friday, October 12, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2018 – Deborah Fuhr.... learn more on Thursday, October 11, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.