TransAlta Corp

Yesterday, I bought 100 shares of Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc (TSX-NBLY) with my fooling around money. Today, I bought another 100 shares of Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc (TSX-NBLY) with my fooling around money.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Debt Ratios need to be improved. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good when considering the DPR for FFO and AFFO. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth restarting. See my spreadsheet on TransAlta Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I am not currently interested in buying this stock. It has lots of debt and a weak balance sheet. The price probably is reasonable. Although some people thinks that it is turning things around.

I do not own this stock of TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC), but I used to. I bought this stock in 1987. It was a utility stock and utility stocks were good investments. I sold some in 2000 as the stock price was below what I had paid for it. I bought some more in February 2009 because it was relatively cheap and it seemed to be recovering. I sold more in August 2012 as this company was doing poorly again. By September 2019, I had finally had enough and saw no hope in this stock doing better. I noticed that MPL Communications had given up hope in 2014.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed analysts expected revenues to go down 18% to $2,721M instead they went up 9% to $2,976M. However, analysts thought that the company would have EPS of $0.36 and increase of 117% (from earnings loss of $2.13), but the EPS came in at $0.01(increasing 100%). The company had a good year in 2022, but analysts expect Revenue, EPS, Cash Flow and Net Income to deteriorate in 2024 and 2025.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,013.04 you would have bought 67 shares at $15.12 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $271.35 in dividends. The stock would be worth $811.37. Your total return would have been $1,082.72.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$15.12	$1,013.04	67	10	$271.35	$811.37	$1,082.72

But, if you had invested in this company in December 2017, for $1,005.75 you would have bought 135 shares at $7.45 per share. In December 2022, after 5 years you would have received $116.78 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,634.85. Your total return would have been $1,751.63.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$7.45	$1,005.75	135	5	$116.78	$1,634.85	$1,751.63

You can see from the following chart, that this company is doing much better over the past 5 years than the past 10 years.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	29.00%	5.22%
5	FFO Growth	78.14%	12.24%
5	Net Income Growth	102.11%	15.11%
5	Cash Flow Growth	40.10%	6.98%
5	Dividend Growth	25.00%	4.56%
5	Stock Price Growth	62.55%	10.20%
10	Revenue Growth	31.56%	2.78%
10	FFO Growth	48.36%	4.02%
10	Net Income Growth	100.65%	7.21%
10	Cash Flow Growth	68.65%	5.37%
10	Dividend Growth	-487.50%	-16.23%
10	Stock Price Growth	-24.86%	-2.20%

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth restarting. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.06%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 2.00% and 2.25%. The historical median dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.39%. The dividend increases are low and being increased at the rate of 4.6% per year over the past 5 years. This number is low because of a decrease and flat dividends over part of this 5 year period. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 10%.

The historical median dividend yield is higher is because dividend yields were higher before the company started to cut dividends in 2014. The company’s track record for dividends is not great with 10 dividend increases and 4 dividend decreases over the past 35 years. This implies that most of the time, dividends were flat. The company decreased dividends from 2014 to 2017 inclusive and began to raise them again in 2021

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good when considering the DPR for FFO and AFFO. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 2000% (because EPS is just $0.01). I cannot calculate the 5 year coverage because EPS was negative for most of those years. The DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) is 4% with 5 year coverage at 5%. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is 6% with 5 year coverage at 8%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share is 5% with 5 year coverage at 6%. For Free Cash Flow (FCF) sites mostly agree and because of a negative FCF for 2022, I cannot calculate the ratio. The 5 year coverage is 14%.

Debt Ratios need to be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is too high at 1.07. This means the market values the company lower than the debt level. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 1.29 and if you add in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratio is good at 1.57. The Debt Ratio is too low at 1.23 and I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 5.40 and 4.40. I prefer them to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	4.56%	12.12%	10.20%	1.91%
2012	10	-16.23%	0.80%	-2.20%	3.00%
2007	15	-10.17%	-3.70%	-6.53%	2.83%
2002	20	-7.73%	3.71%	-1.71%	5.42%
1997	25	-6.16%	2.32%	-2.46%	4.78%
1992	30	-5.16%	6.61%	-0.42%	7.03%
1987	35	-4.27%	6.41%	-0.49%	6.90%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and therefore unusable. The corresponding 10 year ratios are negative and unusable. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.90, 15.26 and 21.19. The current P/E Ratio is 14.07 based on $10.69 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.76. This is lower than the low ratio of the historical median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 2.16, 2.92 and 3.74. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 2.19, 3.02 and 3.89. The current P/FFO is 2.15 based on a stock price of $10.69 and FFO estimate for 2023 of $4.97. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 3.63, 5.06 and 6.49. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 4.48, 6.14 and 7.91. The current P/AFFO is 4.51 based on a stock price of $10.69 and AFFO estimate for 2023 of $2.37. This ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $8.37. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.31, 0.43 and 0.60. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.28 based on a stock price of $10.69. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.30. The current P/B Ratio is 17.06 based on a Book Value of $168M, Book Value per Share of $0.63 and a stock price of $10.69. The current P/B Ratio is 1212% above the 10 year median value. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for $2.09. The 10 year P/B Ratio here is 0.84 (because they calculate the Book Value differently than I do). The current P/B Ratio is 5.11 based on a stock price of $10.69, and Book Value of $560.3M. This ratio is 506% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.40. The current P/CF Ratio is 2.75 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $3.89, Cash Flow of $1,043M and a stock price of $10.69. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.39%. The current dividend yield is 2.06% based on a dividend of $0.22 and a stock price of $10.69. The current ratio is 62% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 median dividend yield of 2.25%. The current dividend yield is 2.06% based on a dividend of $0.22 and a stock price of $10.69. The current ratio is 7% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.05. The current P/S Ratio is 1.14 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $2,517M, Revenue per Share of $9.39 and a stock price of $10.69. The current ratio is 8% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price might be reasonable. There are problems with the testing. The dividend yield works best for dividend growth companies, but it is bad when companies cut their dividends. The P/B Ratio test says that the stock is expensive, because the current book value is low.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (6) and Hold (3). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock value of $15.54. This implies a total return of 47.73% with 45.37% from capital gains and 2.06% from dividends based on a current stock price of $10.69.

The last entry dated November 2022 on Stock Chase says Do Not Buy because the company trashed it balance sheet (Ross Healy). Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool says to buy as the stock is in oversold territory. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool says the company has done a good job getting its balance sheet in order. Personally, I agree with Ross Healy that this company does have a weak balance sheet. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter of 2022.

Simply Wall Street reports on this stock via Yahoo Finance and says that the extremely negative double-digit change in profits expected does not drive a buy decision. EPS for 2024 is expected to be a loss of $0.20. Simply Wall Street gives 3 warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 48.9% per year for the next 3 years; dividend of 2.04% is not well covered by earnings or cash flows; and has a high level of debt.

TransAlta is an independent power producer based in Alberta, Canada. The company operates a diverse and growing fleet of electrical power generation assets in Canada, the United States, and Australia consisting of hydro, wind, solar, battery storage, gas, and energy transition facilities. Most of the company's revenues are derived from the sale of generation capacity, electricity, thermal energy, environmental attributes, and byproducts of power generation. Its web site is here TransAlta Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Enbridge Inc (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TC Energy Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP) ... learn more on Monday, March 27, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Enbridge Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price is reasonable, it may even be cheap. Debt Ratios are mostly fine, but Liquidity Ratio is low. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are generally too high but their DPR Distributable Cash Flow is fine. The dividend yields are high with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Enbridge Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this company and plan to keep the shares I have. I have enough in this company so I will not be buying any more. It does have a lot of debt. The dividend yield is very high currently at around 7%. The price currently seems reasonable by most of the testing. The Dividend Yield tests are saying the stock price is cheap.

I own this stock of Enbridge Inc (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). I first bought this stock in 2005 and then bought more in 2008 and 2009. This stock was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats list and on Mike Higgs’ list of Canadian Dividend Growth stocks. Enbridge is a low risk stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I have had this stock for 17.6 years, I made several purchases and I have made a total return of 12.18% per year with 6.64% from capital gains and 5.54% from dividends. Dividend payments have paid 151% of my stock’s original price.

From the chart below, it looks like growth has slowed down over the past 5 years, except for AEPS growth.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	20.12%	3.74%
5	AEPS Growth	43.37%	7.47%
5	Net Income Growth	2.37%	0.47%
5	Cash Flow Growth	70.57%	11.27%
5	Dividend Growth	42.56%	7.35%
5	Stock Price Growth	7.65%	1.48%
10	Revenue Growth	110.66%	7.74%
10	AEPS Growth	73.46%	5.66%
10	Net Income Growth	324.43%	15.55%
10	Cash Flow Growth	290.74%	14.60%
10	Dividend Growth	204.42%	11.78%
10	Stock Price Growth	23.01%	2.09%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,032.48 you would have bought 24 shares at $43.02 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $593.02 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,270.88. Your total return would have been $1,863.10.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$43.02	$1,032.48	24	10	$593.02	$1,270.08	$1,863.10

The dividend yields are high with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is high (7% and above) at 7.01%. The 5 and 10 year dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.32% and 5.17%. The historical dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.62%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is low (below 8%) at 7.4% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 3.2%. In 2019 and earlier, dividend growth was moderate (8% to 14% ranges), but since then it has been low, in the 3% range.) They have raised their dividends 27 years out of the 32 years I have followed.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are generally too high but their DPR Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 269% with 5 year coverage at 161%. This DPR has been over 100% since 2012. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2023 is 122% with 5 year coverage at 118%. This DPR has been above 100% since 2017. The DPR for Distributable Cash Flow is 63% with 5 year coverage at 65%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 74% with 5 year coverage also at 74%. This is too high and is better at 40% or lower. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is either 109% or 95% depending on where you look.

Debt Ratios are mostly fine, but Liquidity Ratio is low. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.68 and is fine. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.60 and is too low. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is 0.81. If you add back current portion of the debt is just over 1.15 and is acceptable. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.55. The Leverage (A/BK) and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.83 and 1.83.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	7.35%	7.63%	1.48%	6.14%
2012	10	11.78%	7.06%	2.09%	4.97%
2007	15	12.16%	11.93%	6.70%	5.23%
2002	20	11.64%	13.60%	8.33%	5.27%
1997	25	10.80%	12.44%	7.84%	4.60%
1992	30	9.13%	16.68%	10.19%	6.49%
1990	32	8.54%	11.03%	7.04%	3.99%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.03, 30.82 and 38.60. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.39, 30.88 and 36.90. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.01, 19.35 and 23.04. The current P/E Ratio is 16.71 based on a stock price of $50.63 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $3.03. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.24, 18.05, 21.19. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.81, 20.68 and 24.76. The current P/AEPS ratio is 16.82 based on a stock price of $50.63 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $3.01. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/DCF Ratios are 8.51, 10.04 and 11.40. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.21, 10.58 and 12.69. The current P/DCF Ratio is 9.22 based on a stock price of $50.63 and DCF estimate for 2023 of $5.49. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $41.76 . The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.20, 1.35 and 1.52. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.21 based on a stock price of $50.63. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.97. The current P/B Ratio is 1.97 based on a stock price of $50.63, Book Value of $52,140M and a Book Value per Share of $25.75. This ratio at the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share (BVPS) value for 2023 of 28.20. However, the analyst calculates the Book Value different from me and their 10 year median Price/ Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.72. This BVPS value gives a P/B Ratio of 1.80 and Book Value of $57,105M with a stock price of $50.63. This ratio is 98% below their 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.81. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.76 based on a stock price of $50.63, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $5.78 and a stock price of $50.63. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.62%. The current dividend yield is 7.01% based on dividends of $3.55 and a stock price of $50.63. The current dividend yield is 94% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.17%. The current dividend yield is 7.01% based on dividends of $3.55 and a stock price of $50.63. The current dividend yield is 36% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.86. The current P/S Ratio is 1.95 based on revenue $52,567M, Revenue per Share of $25.96 and a stock price of $50.63. The current P/S Ratio is 5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. It could also be cheap by the dividend yield test. The dividend yield testing certainly says that the stock price is cheap. The P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable but above the median. All the other testing says the stock price is cheap or reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (5), Hold (11) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $58.00. This implies a total return of 21.57% with 14.56% from capital gains and 7.01% from dividends based on a stock price of $50.63. The Holds on Stock Chase still think it will do well in the long term. Paul Harris says that growth must come from US as infrastructure is hard to get done in Canada. In an earlier post, Bill Harris says that it has too much debt and you should sell.

Even the analysts on Stock Chase that give a Hold rating, like this company. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool likes Brookfield Renewables better than this company. I do not like the Brookfield companies and they are far to complex to understand what you are really getting. Andrew Button on Motley Fool asks if at 7% yield, should you buy? The company issued a Press Release on their 2022 results. Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talks about insider buying. They issue 4 warnings of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 7% is not well covered by earnings or cash flows; large one-off items impacting financial results; and profit margins (4.9%) are lower than last year (12.4%).

Enbridge owns extensive midstream assets that transport hydrocarbons across the U.S. and Canada. Its pipeline network consists of the Canadian Mainline system, regional oil sands pipelines, and natural gas pipelines. The company also owns and operates a regulated natural gas utility and Canada's largest natural gas distribution company. Finally, the firm has a small renewables portfolio primarily focused on onshore and offshore wind projects. Its web site is here Enbridge Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC) ... learn more on Friday, March 24, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Air Miles and BMO .... learn more on Thursday, March 23, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Tire Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Stock price seems relatively cheap. Some Debt Ratios could be improved. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Tire Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do like this company and I have had it for a long time. I think that the current stock price is relatively cheap. I probably will not buy anymore because I do have a fair bit of my portfolio in this stock.

I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF). In 2000 when I first bought this stock, it was on the Investment Reporter's list of conservative Canadian stocks. I bought stock for my trading account in 2009 because I have done well with it in my Pension Account and it was a consumer stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for slightly over 23 years and I have made a total return of 11.89% per year with 9.62% from capital gains and 2.27% from dividends. I probably did better than the chart showing the returns for 20 and 25 years because I made several purchases over a period of time.

If you look at growth over the past 5 and 10 years, the fastest growth is in dividends. It is much faster than the Revenue growth, but not that much faster than earnings growth. The dividends are growing faster than cash flow. I not only looked at Cash Flow, but also Cash Flow excluding Working Capital. Even though this cannot continue, currently Dividend Payout Ratios are relatively low.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	32.57%	5.80%
5	AEPS Growth	75.23%	14.73%
5	Net Income Growth	42.05%	7.27%
5	Cash Flow Growth	-71.87%	-10.27%
5	CF Growth excl WC	51.11%	8.61%
5	Dividend Growth	126.92%	17.81%
5	Stock Price Growth	-15.83%	-2.90%
10	Revenue Growth	55.86%	4.54%
10	AEPS Growth	190.25%	12.62%
10	Net Income Growth	109.15%	7.66%
10	Cash Flow Growth	-31.27%	-2.68%
10	CF Growth excl WC	76.44%	5.84%
10	Dividend Growth	391.67%	17.26%
10	Stock Price Growth	103.95%	7.39%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,040.70 you would have bought 15 shares at $69.38 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $487.50 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,122.50. Your total return would have been $2,610.00.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$69.38	$1,040.70	15	10	$487.50	$2,122.50	$2,610.00

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.18%. The 5 and 10 year dividend yield are moderate at 2.88% and 2.08%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.70%. The dividend growth has recently been moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 14.9% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 6.15%. However, the company raised the dividends 25% in 2021.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 34% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 28% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 13% with 5 year coverage at 12%. The DPR for 2022 cannot be calculated because it is negative. Everyone seems to agree that it was negative last year. The 5 year coverage is 38%.

Some Debt Ratios could be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 0.42 and is low and good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is good at 1.61. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is a bit low at 1.47 and I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are a bit high at 3.14 and 2.14 and I prefer to see them below 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth.	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	17.81%	0.06%	-2.90%	2.96%
2012	10	17.26%	10.57%	7.39%	3.19%
2007	15	14.84%	6.59%	4.40%	2.20%
2002	20	14.40%	9.99%	7.64%	2.34%
1997	25	11.37%	8.15%	6.26%	1.89%
1992	30	9.39%	9.98%	7.77%	2.21%
1988	34	9.88%	8.34%	6.45%	1.88%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.86, 10.22 and 12.30. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.85, 12.59 and 14.70. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.27, 13.04 and 14.56. The current P/E Ratio is 9.02 based on a stock price of $165.12 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $18.30. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.61, 9.93 and 11.65. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.64, 12.48 and 14.56. The current ratio is 9.39 based on a stock price of $165.12 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $17.59. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $196.31. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 0.99 and 1.13. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.84 based on a stock price of $165.12. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.80. The current P/B Ratio is 1.70 based on a Book Value of $5,619M, Book Value per Share of $97.37 and a stock price of $165.12. The current ratio is 6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2023 of $99.40. This implies a Book Value of $5,735M and a ratio of 1.66 with a stock price of $165.12. This ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.96. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.89 based on a stock price of $165.12, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $33.80 and Cash Flow of $1,950M. The current ratio is 45% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.70%. The current dividend yield is 4.18% based on dividends of $6.90 and a stock price of $165.12. The current dividend yield is 146% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.08%. The current dividend yield is 4.18% based on dividends of $6.90 and a stock price of $165.12. The current dividend yield is 101% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.68. The current P/S Ratio is 0.53 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $17,830M, Revenue per Share of $309.01 and a stock price of $165.12. The current ratio is 22% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests show the stock as very cheap, but as in a chart above, dividends are growing quite fast. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is cheap. Another of other tests point to the stock price as being cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (7) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price of is $198.82. This implies a total return of 24.59% with 4.18% from dividends and 20.41% from capital gains. The only negative comment is from Ross Healy saying we are heading into a recession and this will not help retailers. However, this stock has traditionally done well in recession because their products include stuff to fix your home and car. In tough times people tend towards fixing stuff.

One analyst thinks that retailers will be hurt by the coming recession, and this includes this stock he says on Stock Chase. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is number 10 on the Money Sense list. Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool says this company has an exception year in 2022 and it will be increasing its dividend this year by 33%. Kay Ng on Motley Fool says this company has solid long term growth and is a buy at a 4.1% yield. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter of 2022 results.

A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance says the current sell off is a buying opportunity. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It gives 3 warnings of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; dividend of 4.12% is not well covered; significant insider selling over the past 3 months.

Canadian Tire sells home goods, sporting equipment, apparel, footwear, automotive parts and accessories, and vehicle fuel. Aside from the namesake banner, stores operate primarily under the Mark's, SportChek, Party City, Atmosphere, and PartSource monikers. Additionally, the company owns Helly Hansen, a Norwegian sportswear and workwear brand, and operates and holds majority ownership of a financing arm (Canadian Tire Financial Services; 20% owned by Scotiabank) and a REIT (CT REIT; Canadian Tire owns about 70%). Its web site is here Canadian Tire Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Enbridge Inc (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 22, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Banks .... learn more on Tuesday, March 21 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

H & R Real Estate Trust

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. Some Debt Ratios need to improve. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are for FFO and AFFO are currently fine and these are the important ones for REITs. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth restarting. See my spreadsheet on H & R Real Estate Trust.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I bought some REITs for diversification and that is probably a good reason to buy. They also pay monthly dividends and that is good, because if you depend on dividends, some dividend cycles are more used that others. For me the first cycle for dividends (January, April, August and September) has the lowest amount of dividend income. But note that most of the returns for REITs is in dividends. The stock price is certainly reasonable and is probably cheap.

I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF). Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Before I started blogging, I was following several REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this is another REIT that has cut their dividends. Like RioCan, they have also begun again to raise dividends. Dividends went down in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Dividends hit bottom in 2022 and then the rises began. The last raise was in 2023 and the increase was for 9.2%. However, dividends are still down 56% since 2019.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,12.20 you would have bought 42 shares at $24.10 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $627.64 in dividends. The stock would be worth $508.62. Your total return would have been $1,136.26.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$24.10	$1,012.20	42	10	$627.64	$508.62	$1,136.26

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth restarting. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.72%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.25%, 6.13% and 6.25%. Dividends were cut 2020 and the company just started to raise them again in 2023. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 9.2%. The dividends are still 56% lower than they were in 2020.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are for FFO and AFFO are currently fine and these are the important ones for REITs. The DPR for 2022 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is 47% with 5 year coverage at 104%. The DPR for FFO for 2023 is expected to be 48%. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) for 2022 is 56% with 5 year coverage at 132%. The DPR for AFFO for 2023 is expected to be 56%.

The DPR for EPS for 2022 if 161% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The DPR for EPS is expected to be 139% in 2023. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 32% with 5 year coverage at 72%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 120% with 5 year coverage at 83%. The DPR for FCF for 2023 is expected to be around 132%.

Some Debt Ratios need to improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 1.22 and this is too high. It is still currently too high at 1.16. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 0.89 and is too low. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it is still too low at 1.25. I prefer this to be at least 1.50. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 1.93. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.08 and 1.08.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	-16.77%	-1.22%	-10.73%	9.51%
2012	10	-7.29%	1.53%	-6.65%	8.18%
2007	15	-5.89%	4.64%	-3.24%	7.88%
2002	20	-3.81%	9.29%	-0.49%	9.78%
1997	25	-0.84%	11.10%	0.44%	10.66%
1996	26		11.51%	-2.11%	13.62%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.02, 6.99 and 7.97. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.33, 15.95 and 17.57. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.16, 13.13 and 17.50. The current P/E Ratio is 10.59 based on a stock price of $12.71 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.20. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 8.78, 10.51 and 12.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.60, 11.61 and 12.76. The current P/FFO Ratio is 10.33 based on a stock price of $12.71 and FFO estimate for 2023 of $1.23. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 10.42, 12.47, and 15.27. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.43, 14.45 and 15.51. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 11.88 based on a stock price of $12.71 and AFFO estimate for 2023 of $1.07. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $23.90. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.61, 0.67 and 0.75. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.53 based on a stock price of $12.71. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.88. The current P/B Ratio is 0.62 based on a Book Value of $5,487M, Book Value per Share of $20.64 and a stock price of $12.71. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 11.22. The current P/CF Ratio is 13.25 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $255M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.96 and a stock price of $12.71. The current ratio is 18% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.25%. The current dividend yield is 4.72% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price if $12.71. The current ratio is 24% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.13%. The current dividend yield is 4.72% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price if $12.71. The current ratio is 223% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.00. The current P/S Ratio is 3.49 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $969M, Revenue per Share of $3.64 and a stock price of $12.71. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The P/S Ratio testing says this. The problem with the dividend yield testing is that the dividends were cut and this test works best with dividend growth. The P/FFO Ratio and P/AFFO Ratio testing says that the stock price is cheap and this are good tests for REITs. The non dividend yield tests say the stock is cheap or reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (2) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $15.75. This implies a total return of 28.64% with 23.92% from capital gains and 4.72% from dividends based on a current stock price of $12.71.

The three entries for 2023 on Stock Chase gives this stock a Buy rating. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool Thinks this stock is due for a comeback in 2023. Motley Fool thinks this stock has a safe dividend. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2022 results. Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Sport discusses this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It names 4 warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 50.5% per year for the next 3 years; debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; unstable dividend track record; and large one-off items impacting financial results.

H&R Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust principally involved in the ownership of properties in Canada and the U.S. The REIT has four reportable operating segments- Residential, Industrial, Office and Retail, in two geographical locations -Canada and the United States. The operating segments derive their revenue from rental income from leases. Most of this income is generated by its Canadian properties. Its web site is here H & R Real Estate Trust.

The last stock I wrote about was about was RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF) ... learn more on Monday, March 20, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

RioCan Real Estate

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. The stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are for fine for the important ones for FFO and AFFO. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth restarted. See my spreadsheet on RioCan Real Estate.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I bought this stock for diversification and it is a decent stock for me. The thing with REITs is that they tend to have monthly distributions. Most stock pay quarterly and you can end up with a big difference in dividend income over every 3 month period. I think that the stock price is current reason and below the median.

I own this stock of RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF). I first bought this stock in 1998 because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. It was a stock covered and recommended by MPL Communications in their Income Trust coverage. Over the years I have made several more purchases of this REIT.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have bought shares over the years since 1998 (25 years) and have made a total return of 10.01%, with 0.95 from capital gains and 9.06% from dividends. REITs are always heavy with dividend returns but I would expect the capital gains and dividend returns to be more balanced.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,019.72 you would have bought 37 shares at $27.56 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $494.88 in dividends. The stock would be worth $781.81. Your total return would have been $1,276.69.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$27.56	$1,019.72	37	10	$494.88	$781.81	$1,276.69

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth restarted. The current dividend growth is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.13%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yield are also good at 5.60%, 5.36% and 6.73%. The dividends were cut in 2021. The company started to raise them again in 2022. However, the dividends are still 25% below the dividends paid in 2020. I have data for 28 years, of these years, dividends were raised 20 times and cut 1 time. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 5.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are for fine for the important ones for FFO and AFFO. The DPR for 2022 for EPS is 131% with 5 year coverage at 95%. The DPR for EPS for 2023 is expected to be 62%. The DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) for 2022 is 59% with 5 year coverage at 73%. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) for 2022 is 70% with 5 year coverage at 90%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 57% with 5 year coverage at 79%. There is a disagreement among sites as to what the Free Cash Flow is.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 0.88. Real Estate companies have lots of debt and this is fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 0.90, which is unusually low for this company with a 5 year median ratio of 2.62. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is 1.42. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 2.05. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are good at 1.95 and 0.95.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	-6.46%	2.71%	-2.80%	5.52%
2012	10	-3.07%	2.83%	-2.62%	5.45%
2007	15	-1.81%	6.12%	-0.21%	6.33%
2002	20	-0.45%	11.53%	2.67%	8.86%
1997	25	1.07%	12.31%	2.94%	9.37%
1993	28	3.10%	13.94%	3.88%	10.06%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.38, 10.43 and 12.17. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.55, 11.59 and 12.64. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.67, 12.51 and 14.31. The current P/E Ratio is 12.23 based on a stock price of $21.04 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.72. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 10.54, 12.87 and 14.86. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.55, 13.78 and 15.32. The current P/FFO Ratio is 11.89 based on a stock price of $21.04 and FFO estimate for 2023 of $1.77. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 10.54, 12.87 and 14.86. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.55, 13.78 and 15.32. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 11.66 based on a stock price of $21.04 and FFO estimate for 2023 of $1.54. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $32.01. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.79 and 0.90. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.66 based on a stock price of $21.04. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.97. The current P/B Ratio is 0.82 based on a stock price of $21.04, Book Value of $7,729M, and Book Value per Share of $25.73. The current ratio is 16% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.42. The current P/CF Ratio is 12.49 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of 506M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.69 and a stock price of $21.04. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is getting close to cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.73%. The current dividend yield is 5.13% based on a stock price of $21.04 and Dividends of $1.08. The current dividend yield is 24% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.36%. The current dividend yield is 5.13% based on a stock price of $21.04 and Dividends of $1.08. The current dividend yield is 4% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.69. The current P/S Ratio is 5.36 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $1,178M, Revenue per Share of $3.92 and a stock price of $21.04. The current P/S Ratio is 19.8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is almost cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and may even be cheap. The dividend yield testings are not showing the stock price as cheap because they were recently cut. It is always a bad sign when dividends are cut. However, a recent good sign is that the dividends are again be raised. That is why the stock price might be cheap. Important tests for P/FFO Ratio and P/AFFO Ratio are showing the stock price as reasonable and below the median. And, this I good.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4) and Buy (4). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $25.00. This implies a total return of 23.95% with 18.82% from capital gains and 5.13% from dividends.

Analysts last year on Stock Chase thought it was a buy. Stock Chase gives this company 4 stars out of 5. It is not on the money sense list but no REITs are. It is not on the Maple Money list even though this list has REITs. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool thinks this company is a great way to make passive income. Christopher Liew wrote on Motley Fool about this company’s come back after 2000. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter of 2022 results.

A simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talks about this company and its dividend cut. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street gives out 4 warnings for this company of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; unstable dividend track record; large one-off items impacting financial results; and profit margins (19.2%) are lower than last year (49.4%).

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust is a Canadian real estate investment trust which owns, develops, and operates Canada's portfolio of retail-focused, increasingly mixed-use properties. The REIT's property portfolio includes shopping centers and mixed-use developments, with most of its properties located in Ontario, Canada. RioCan’s tenants consist of grocery stores, supermarkets, restaurants, cinemas, pharmacies, and corporates. By geography, the company operates in Canada, which generates most of the total revenue, and in the United States. Its web site is here RioCan Real Estate.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF) ... learn more on Friday, March 17, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Stocks for March 2023 .... learn more on Thursday, March 16, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Home Capital Group

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The current price is reasonable and below the median. However, it will be bought by Smith Financial Corp. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are low with dividends restarting See my spreadsheet on Home Capital Group.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The company is being bought out. I see no reason for any small investor to buy it although the current price is lower than the buyout price. I sold, because I see no reason to hold on to a stock that will be bought out. I rather sell and move on.

I do not own this stock of Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF), but I used to. I started reviewing this company in September 2009. It is a dividend growth company and was coming up on lists of good dividends paying stocks. It was on some dividends paying companies lists that I look at. I bought it in 2017 and sold in December 2022 as it was being bought out. See below. See information about the buyout at $44. 00 in cash here.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I had this for just under 6 years. I sold because it was going to be bought out. I see no sense waiting for it to be bought out because I will not gain much from my selling point to the buyout. I made 12.40% return on this stock with 12.04% from capital gains and 0.36% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,004.19 you would have bought 34 shares at $29.54 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $134.64 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1447.72. Your total return would have been $1582.36.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$29.54	$1,004.19	34	10	$134.64	$1,447.72	$1,582.36

I note that analysts expected the EPS to go up 10% to $5.27, but instead the EPS when down 24% to $3.64. They are publishing Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) and this value was 3.91% in 2022. So, the AEPS did not come up to what the analysts thought would be the EPS for 2022.

The dividend yields are low with dividends restarting. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.49%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0.00%, 1.44% and 1.33%. The 5 year dividend yield is 0.00% because dividends were stopped between 2018 and 2021 inclusive. The company restarted dividends in 2022. The new dividend rate is still 40% below what it was for the last full year of dividends in 2016. There was only one dividend paid in 2017.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 1.3% with 5 year coverage at 2.4%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 12.8% with 5 year coverage at 1.6%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is 14.5% with 5 year coverage at 2.5%. Note that the 5 year coverage is low because of no dividends in previous years.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2022 is 0.73. This is fine. I calculate a Liquidity Ratio for 2022 of 2.40, but this is not an important ratio for Financials. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is 1.07 and this is fine for Financials.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	18.20%	20.06%	19.72%	0.34%
2012	10	2.92%	4.96%	3.73%	1.23%
2007	15	6.92%	6.22%	4.84%	1.38%
2002	20	16.16%	15.81%	13.11%	2.70%
1997	25	18.87%	21.35%	17.69%	3.66%
1995	27		39.64%	28.39%	11.25%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.31, 9.19 and 11.15. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.45, 9.22 and 11.76. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.50, 9.11 and 11.89. The current P/E Ratio is 7.44 based on a stock price of $40.25 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $5.41. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $70.69. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.49, 0.66 and 0.89. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.57 based on a stock price of $40.25. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.94. The current P/B Ratio is 0.98 based on stock price of $40.25, Book Value of $1,555M, and Book Value per Share of $41.05. The current ratio is 4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2023 of $45.40. This implies a ratio of 0.89 with a stock price of $40.25 and a Book Value of $1,719M. This ratio is 5.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.02. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.32 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $183M, Cash Flow per Share of $4.84 and a stock price of $40.25. The current ratio is 107% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.13%. The current dividend yield is 1.49% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $40.25. The current yield is 12% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.44%. The current dividend yield is 1.49% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $40.25. The current yield is 3.6% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.30. The current P/S Ratio is 2.58 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $590M, Revenue per Share of $15.57 and a stock price of $40.25. The current ratio is 21.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests say it is reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test says it is cheap. Most of the other tests say the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month target price of $43.83. This implies a total return of $10.39% with 8.89% from capital gains and 1.49% from dividends.

Stock Chase. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. There is nothing recent on Stock Chase, but stock is being bought out. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool talks the stock skyrocketing after buyout agreement made. The company put out a Press Release about its fourth quarter results for 2022. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about who owns shares in this company. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It gives one warning of high level of non-cash earnings.

Home Capital Group Inc is a specialty finance company that offers residential and commercial mortgage lending, securitization of insured mortgage products, consumer lending, and credit card services. The company also offers deposits via brokers and financial planners, and through its direct-to-consumer deposit brand, Oaken Financial. Home Capital's mortgage lending focuses on homeowners who typically do not meet all the lending criteria of traditional financial institutions. Its web site is here Home Capital Group.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 15, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Core Picks for Retirement.... learn more on Tuesday, March 14, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.