Friday, December 29, 2023

Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they suspended their dividends for the second quarter of 2020 and the stock price crashed. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I agree with Money Sense in putting this stock on a list of good dividend stocks. I do think it has a future as a dividend growth stock. I am not buying it as I cannot buy all the stock I follow as I follow currently 153. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap.

I do not own this stock of Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc (TSX-ZZZ, OTC-SCCAF). This is a new following for 2023. I also need to find 3 more stocks to follow because of stock I followed being taken over last year. I got this stock using the Stock Screener of G&M to look for a Canadian Dividend Paying Stock. I also noticed this stock was on the Money Sense List and the Maple Money List.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they suspended their dividends for the second quarter of 2020 and the stock price crashed. The company was worried about covid lockdowns and they did not pay their second and third dividends in 2020 and the stock crashed. I can see a concern, no one knew what was going to happen. However, people who invest for dividends can be unforgiving to companies that cut dividends, and this is probably why this stock crashed.

If you had invested in this company in July 2015 when this company was first issued, for $1,001.30 you would have bought 62 shares at $16.15 per share. In December 2022, after 8 years you would have received $300.70 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,424.76. Your total return would have been $1,725.48. This is a total return would be a total return of 7.63% per year with 4.51% from capital gain and 3.12% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$16.15 $1,001.30 62 8 $300.70 $1,424.76 $1,725.46

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.59%. The 5, 7 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 2.56% and 2.30%. the dividend increases have been low (below 8%) at 4.9% per year over the past 5 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2022 for Earnings per Share (EPS) are too high with current DPR at 8512% but with 5 year coverage at 264%, but the DPR for AEPS and CFPS are what matters here. The DPR for 2022 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 30% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for 2022 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good with current DPR 16% and with 5 year coverage at 19%. The DPR for 2022 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too fine at 67% with 5 year coverage at 22%.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 8512.00% 264.44%
AEPS 29.89% 32.74%
CFPS 16.15% 17.74%
FCF 66.83% 22.48%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good at 0.12 and currently at 0.15. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is low at 1.05 and 0.90 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are better at 1.74 and 1.40. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 1.70 and 1.69 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are fine at 2.48 and 1.46 and currently at 2.48 and 1.47

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.12 0.15
Intang/GW 0.61 0.62
Liquidity 1.05 0.90
Liq. + CF 1.74 1.40
Debt Ratio 1.70 1.69
Leverage 2.48 2.48
D/E Ratio 1.46 1.47

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 8 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2017 5 4.94% -4.76% -7.21% 2.45%
2014 8 7.09% 7.63% 4.51% 3.12%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.84, 13.43 and 16.09. The corresponding 8 year ratios are 11.30, 13.70 and 16.61. The current P/E Ratio is 9.85 based on a stock price of $25.80 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $2.62. The current ratio is below the low ratios of the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS). The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.77, 12.58 and 14.19. The corresponding 8 year ratios are 11.16, 14.40 and 17.21. The current P/E Ratio is 12.34 based on a stock price of $25.80 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $2.09. The current ratio is between the low ratio and median ratio of the of the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $24.40. The 8-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.02, 1.30 and 1.60. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.06 based on a stock price of $25.80. The current ratio is between the low ratio and median ratio of the of the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an 8-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.04 based on a stock price of $25.80, Book Value of $439M and Book Value per Share $12.66. The current ratio is 26% below the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also I have a Book Value per Share estimate of $12.30 for 2023. This implies a P/B Ratio is 2.10 based on a stock price of $25.80 and Book Value of $426M. The current ratio is 23% below the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an 8-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.86. The current ratio is 6.97 based on a stock price of $25.80, Cash Flow per Share estimate of $3.70 and Cash Flow $128M. The current ratio is 11% below the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an 8 year and historical median dividend yield of 2.30%. The current dividend yield is 3.59% based on dividends of $0.93 and a stock price of $25.80. The current yield is 56% above the 8 year and historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.

The 8-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.33. The current P/S Ratio is 0.96 based on Revenue estimate of $927M, Revenue per Share of $26.76 and a stock price of $25.80. The current ratio is 28% below the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield testing says that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The other tests are saying that the stock price is either cheap or reasonable and below the median

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (2). The consensus is Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price is $27.17 with a high of $29.00 and low of $24.00. The stock price of $27.17 implies a total return of $8.98% with 5.31% from capital gains and 3.67% from dividends.

The latest recommendation on Stock Chase was in 2021 and it was a Do Not Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. This stock is on the Money Sense and Maple Money dividend stock lists. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says this is a favourite stock. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool thinks this stock is cheap and now is the time to buy. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their annual results for 2022. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their third quarter of 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says this stock is selling close to its fair value of $27.62. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. They have two warnings of unstable dividend track record; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months.

Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc is engaged in the retail of mattresses. It operates in the retail marketplace, offering mattresses and bedding-related products. The company operates in three segments Sleep Country/Dormez-vous, Endy, and Hush. The company operates only in Canada. Its web site is here Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (TSX-AEM, NYSE-AEM) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Metro Inc (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF) ... learn more on Tuesday, January 2, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Mining Stock. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and may even be cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine because the important ones of for AEPS and CFPS are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth currently good. See my spreadsheet on Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I also think of resource stocks as short term buys, where you buy at a relatively low point and sell and a relatively high point. It is currently a dividend growth stock, but dividend, the dividend growth has varied over the past. However, the price does seem relatively low currently.

I do not own this stock of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (TSX-AEM, NYSE-AEM). Recently, two mining stocks were recommended. Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (TSX-AEM) was recommended by Advice for Investors site. Franco-Nevada (FNV.T) was recommended by a member of Ellen’s Investment Club. I decided to look at Agnico-Eagle Mines because it was on the Money Sense List of Dividend Stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I still do not understand why resource stocks like this one are recommended for dividend investors. My objection is that you do not get a decent total return on a long term basis for resource. They are cyclical and I have bought some near the bottom of their cycle and sold near the top, but I would never consider a resource stock as a long term buy, that is buy and hold and forget about. See charts below. I do not ask for a high Total Return because my minimum is just 8% per year.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,009.60 you would have bought 20 shares at $50.48 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $184.28 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,407.20. Your total return would have been $1,591.48. This is a total return would be a total return of 4.83% per year with 3.38% from capital gain and 1.49% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$50.48 $1,009.60 20 10 $184.28 $1,407.20 $1,591.48

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth currently good. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.89%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.46%, 1.19% and 0.95%. The dividend growth is currently good (above 15%) at 33% per year for the past 5 years. But note that the dividends have increased 13 times and declined 6 times over the past 10 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine because the important ones of for AEPS and CFPS are fine. The DPR for 2022 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine with current DPR at 105% but with 5 year coverage at 77%. The DPR for 2022 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is fine at 70% with 5 year coverage at 76%. The DPR for 2022 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good with current DPR 35% and with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for 2022 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 109% with 5 year coverage at 141%. Sites do not agree on FCF, but all show the DPR too high.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 104.58% 76.71%
AEPS 70.18% 75.71%
CFPS 34.52% 21.75%
FCF 108.94% 140.97%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good at 0.22 and currently at 0.27. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is a good at 1.30 and 1.99 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 13.24 and 3.15 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are good at 1.45 and 0.45 and currently at 1.47 and 0.47.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.22 0.27
Intang/GW 0.09 0.18
Liquidity 2.30 1.99
Liq. + CF 3.75 3.45
Debt Ratio 3.24 3.15
Leverage 1.45 1.47
D/E Ratio 0.45 0.47

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2022 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2017 5 33.33% 5.92% 3.92% 1.99%
2012 10 10.53% 4.86% 3.38% 1.49%
2007 15 21.37% 3.00% 1.84% 1.16%
2003 19 23.59% 9.62% 8.22% 1.40%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2022 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2017 5 31.30% 4.39% 2.40% 1.99%
2012 10 7.18% 1.64% 0.26% 1.38%
2007 15 18.85% 0.82% -0.31% 1.13%
2003 19 23.28% 9.55% 7.97% 1.58%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.59, 27.94 and 34.41. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 23.04, 31.53 and 42.09. The corresponding historical ratios are 23.04, 31.53 and 42.09. The current P/E Ratio is 18.19 based a stock price of $55.30 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $3.04. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.78, 33.02 and 46.49. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 34.73, 44.33 and 58.22. The current P/AEPS ratio is 26.71 based on a stock price of $55.30 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $2.07. This ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $59.79. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.50, 2.11 and 2.64. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.23 based on as stock price of $73.24. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.15. The current P/B Ratio is 1.27 based on a stock price of $55.30, Book Value of $19,933M and Book Value per Share of $43.67. The current ratio is 41% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $37.00. This implies a P/B Ratio of 1.49 and a book Value of $16,889M with a stock price of $55.30. This ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.50. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.76 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $5.14, Cash Flow of $2,346M and a stock price of $55.30. the current ratio is 14% below the current ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.95%. The current dividend yield is 2.89% based on dividends of $1.60 and a stock price of $55.30. The current dividend yield is 205% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.11%. The current dividend yield is 2.89% based on dividends of $1.60 and a stock price of $55.30. The current dividend yield is 160% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.24. The current P/S Ratio is 3.85 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $6,560M, Revenue per Share of $14.37 and a stock price of $55.30. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and may even be cheap. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is cheap. However, the P/S Ratio test only says it is reasonable and below the median. Other tests are showing the stock price as cheap. I did most testing in US$ as this stock reports in US$ and estimates are in US$.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (11), Buy (8) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $85.59 ($65.31 US$) with a high of $99.44 ($75.00 US$) and low of $70.27 ($53.00). The consensus price of $85.59 implies a total return of 20.96% with 18.06% from capital gains and 2.89% from dividends based on a current price of $73.34.

The recommendations on Stock Chase are mixed and are from Buy to Do Not Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on the Monsey Sense and Dividend Aristocrat lists I follow. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says this is a top gold mining company with upside potential. Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool says this is one of his favourite TSX mining stocks. The company put out a Press Release onNewswire about their fourth quarter of 2022 results. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their results for the third quarter of 2023.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance put out a report on this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. They list 4 warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 32.4% per year for the next 3 years; large one-off items impacting financial results; shareholders have been diluted in the past year; and dividend of 2.89% is not well covered by cash flows.

Agnico Eagle is a gold miner with mines in Canada, Mexico, Finland, and Australia. Agnico operated just one mine, LaRonde, as recently as 2008 before bringing its other mines online in rapid succession in the following years. It merged with Kirkland Lake Gold in 2022, acquiring the Detour Lake and Macassa mines in Canada along with the high-grade, low-cost Fosterville mine in Australia. Its web site is here Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was KP Tissue Inc (TSX-KPT, OTC-KPTSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc (TSX-ZZZ, OTC-SCCAF) ... learn more on Friday, December 29, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about My Own Advisor Blogger .... learn more on Thursday, December 28, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

KP Tissue Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumers. When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there is lots of complexity in analyzing this stock and I would not buy it for that reason. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are fine, but Kruger Products could improve. The Dividend Payout is made from Investing Cash Flow. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth non-existent. See my spreadsheet on KP Tissue Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Basically, I do not like the structure of this company and I do not feel I get enough information on Kruger Products on which KP Issue Inc is totally dependent on. Personally, I would not buy this stock. Also, I do like dividend growth companies and this company is not growing its dividends and analysts do not expect this to happen anytime soon. However, what testing I can do, does show that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I do not own this stock of KP Tissue Inc (TSX-KPT, OTC-KPTSF). This was a stock suggested by a speaker at the Ellen's Investment Club.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there is lots of complexity in analyzing this stock and I would not buy it for that reason. I do not like this set up. KP Tissue owns a percentage of Kruger Products. The problem is that percentage changes every year. Also, the number of shares outstanding changes each year. This makes looking at this stock complex and I do not like complexity. It is obvious that Kruger Products had an earnings loss in 2022. KP Tissue has mostly negative income and negative EPS, so it should not be paying a dividend. Although it is getting extra money from Kruger Products to pay the dividends and that is why they can pay dividends. Will this continue?

The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is high (7% and higher) at 7.96%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.72%, 5.97% and 5.97%. Dividends have been paid for 9 years. Except for the first dividend, the dividends have been flat.

The Dividend Payout is made from Investing Cash Flow. Looking at the using metrics of DPR for 2022 for Earnings per Share (EPS), the DPR for 2022 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) and the for 2022 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) the dividends are not covered. Mostly EPS has been negative, there is no Cash Flow from operations and little in the way of Free Cash Flow. However, from Kruger Products this company gets a Partnership Unit distribution (going into Cash Flow from Investing), and this is used to pay the dividends.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 0.00% 0.00%
CFPS 0.00% 0.00%
FCF 0.00% 0.00%

Debt Ratios are fine, but Kruger Products could improve. KP Tissue Inc. does not have much in the way of debt. However, it is Debt Ratios for Kruger Products that really count. They do not give full financials for Kruger Products. However, the year end and current Debt Ratios are 1.28 and 1.37. These are low and I prefer them to be at 1.50 and above. However, all their Debt Ratios since 2011 have been below 1.50.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.00 0.00
Intang/GW 0.00 0.00
Liquidity 1.21 1.23
Liq. + CF 0.26 0.26
Debt Ratio 10.64 9.98
Leverage 1.10 1.11
D/E Ratio 0.10 0.11

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 10 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2017 5 0.00% 1.07% -4.99% 6.07%
2012 10 -8.61% -0.07% -5.30% 5.23%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are all negative and useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are negative and useless. You cannot do P/E Ratio testing if the company has no earnings. Analyst expect a positive result in 2024

I get a Graham Price of $9.24 for 2024. This stock has had positive earnings in only 2 years of the past 10 years. Since the earnings is part of the Graham Price calculation and this calculation only works for positive earnings, there is no P/GP Ratio to compare this too. The P/GP Ratio for 2024 is 0.98, which implies that the stock price is a reasonable one.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.03. The current P/B Ratio is 1.07 based on a stock price of $9.05, Book Value of $83.8M and a Book Value per share of $8.43. The current ratio is 4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $8.44. This implies a Book Value of $83.9M and a P/B Ratio of 1.07 based on a stock price of $9.05. This ratio is 4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I cannot do any Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio testing as this stock has no operating cash Flow.

I get a 10 year and historical median dividend yield of 5.97%. The current dividend yield is $7.96% based on dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $9.05. The current yield is 33% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.08. The current P/S Ratio is 0.07 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $1875M, Revenue per Share of $188.32 and a stock price of $9.05. The current ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The median dividend test says this. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The only other test I can do is the Price Book Value test and this says that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (4) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $10.88 with high of $11.00 and low of $10.50. The target price of $10.88 implies a total return of 28.18% with 20.22% from capital gains and 7.96% from dividends. This is a high possible return, yet all the analysts say Hold.

There is only one recommendation on Stock Chase for 2023 and it is a Do Not Buy. The analyst is not impressed by the fundamentals and says the balance sheet has been contracting for several years. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool likes this stock for the 7% dividend. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool says this stock is a sleeper pick for passive income. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their results for 2022. The company put out a press release on Newswire /a> about their third quarter of 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street put out a report via
Yahoo Finance for this company. Simply Wall Street has two warnings on this stock of makes less than USD$1m in revenue (CA$0); and does not have a meaningful market cap (CA$90M). Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

KP Tissue Inc operates as a holding company. The firm produces, distributes, markets, and sells a range of disposable tissue products in North America. It offers bathroom and facial tissues, paper towels, paper towels, and napkins, as well as disposable wiping products and washroom dispensing systems. Its web site is here KP Tissue Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Maple Leaf Foods Inc (TSX-MFI, OTC-MLFNF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (TSX-AEM, NYSE-AEM) ... learn more on Wednesday, December 27, 2023 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I will write about Stock Market Books .... learn more on Tuesday, December 26 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, December 22, 2023

Maple Leaf Foods Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed expenses were higher than sales and they had an impairment charge. Debt Ratios are fine, but Liquidity Ratio is low currently. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) awful, but are expected to improve over the next few years. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Maple Leaf Foods Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price has gone no-where for a while, but analysts feel that it will now move up. It has been growing its dividend. I do not like the low Liquidity Ratio but I expect that to improve also. The dividend yield is higher than it ever been, and this points to a current cheap price. The stock price is testing as cheap.

I do not own this stock of Maple Leaf Foods Inc (TSX-MFI, OTC-MLFNF). I am doing a report on this stock because it was on the Top 100 Canadian Dividend Stocks by Maple Money . It also was on the Top 100 Dividend Stocks Money Sense for 2021 gets a solid C Rating from Money Sense.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed expenses were higher than sales and they had an impairment charge. In 2022, the cost of Sales and Selling and other expenses was higher than Sales. Also, they took a high goodwill impairment charge in 2022. The total return has been moderate (3% to 8%) range to date currently and that is because the stock price has not done much lately. Generally, in the past this stock produced acceptable total returns of at least 8%.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,005.48 you would have bought 84 shares at $11.97 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $394.80 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,053.80. Your total return would have been $2,448.60. This is a total return would be a total return of 10.00% per year with 7.40% from capital gain and 2.59% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$11.97 $1,005.48 84 10 $394.80 $2,053.80 $2,448.60

However, if you had invested in this company in December 2007, for $1,009.80 you would have bought 68 shares at $14.85 per share. In December 2022, after 15 years you would have received $374.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,166.60. Your total return would have been $2,036.60. This is a total return would be a total return of 5.14% per year with 3.38% from capital gain and 1.76% from dividends. You would have done better buying this stock only 10 years ago than 15 years.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$14.85 $1,009.80 68 15 $374.00 $1,662.60 $2,036.60

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.38%. The 5 historical median dividend yield is moderate at 2.51%. The 10 and historical median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.58% and 1.48%. The dividends are growing at a moderate rate (8% to 14%) at 12.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividends increase at 2023 and it was for 5%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) awful, but are expected to improve over the next few years. The DPR for 2022 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is 0% with 5 year coverage at 543% because of a large earnings loss in 2022. The DPR for EPS is expected to be 131% in 2023 and then dropping to 42% in 2024. The DPR for 2022 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 0% with 5 year coverage at 52% because of an earnings loss in 2022. The DPR for 2022 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 197% because of very low cash flow with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2022 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is -24% because of very low FCF with 5 year coverage at 102%. This DPR is not expected to be good until 2025.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 0.00% 543.33%
AEPS 0.00% 51.99%
CFPS 197.38% 32.28%
FCF -24.04% 102.61%

Debt Ratios are fine, but Liquidity Ratio is low currently. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is fine at 0.57 and currently at 0.52. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is a good at 1.65 and but low at 1.16 currently. Even adding in Cash Flow after dividends, the current ratio is still low at 1.20. I like them to be at 1.50 or better. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is fine at 1.60 and 1.50 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are fine at 2.67 and 1.67 and currently at 2.98 and 1.98.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.57 0.52
Intang/GW 0.12 0.12
Liquidity 1.65 1.16
Liq. + CF 1.50 1.20
Debt Ratio 1.60 1.50
Leverage 2.67 2.98
D/E Ratio 1.67 1.98

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2017 5 12.70% -5.20% -7.35% 2.15%
2012 10 17.46% 10.00% 7.40% 2.59%
2007 15 11.33% 5.14% 3.38% 1.76%
2002 20 8.38% 5.80% 4.10% 1.70%
1997 25 6.65% 3.08% 1.76% 1.31%
1992 30 2.51% 3.12% 1.73% 1.39%
1990 32 2.35% 4.29% 2.56% 1.73%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 28.96, 33.79 and 38.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 21.07, 26.39 and 31.72. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.76, 19.72 and 24.60. The current P/E Ratio is 38.86 based on a stock price of $24.87 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.64. This ratio above the high ratios for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, EPS is very low for 2023 and the estimate for 2024 of $2.01 which gives us a P/E Ratio of 12.37 based on a stock price of $24.87. This ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios (Data). The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.70, 25.40 and 29.73. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.90, 23.24 and 27.26. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 95.65 based on a stock price of $24.87. This ratio above the high ratios for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, the AEPS is very low for 2023 at $0.26. The AEPS for 2024 if $1.62 and this has a P/AEPS Ratio of 15.35 based on a stock price of $24.87. This ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $8.60. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.09, 1.38 and 1.61. The P/GP Ratio is 2.89 based on a stock price of $24.87. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This ratio above the high ratios for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, the Graham Price for 2024 is 21.46. Here the P/GP Ratio would be 1.16 based on a stock price of $24.87. This ratio is between the low the median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.69. The current P/B Ratio is 1.97 based on a Book Value of $1,547M, Book Value per Share of $12.63 and a stock price $14.87. This ratio is 17% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $12.90. This implies a P/B Ratio of 1.93 and a Book Value of $1,580M based on a stock price of $24.87. This ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.65. The current P/CF Ratio is 17.89 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $1.39. The current ratio is 33% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.48%. The current dividend yield is 3.38% based on a stock price of $24.87 and dividends of $0.84. The current dividend yield is 128% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.58%. The current dividend yield is 3.38% based on a stock price of $24.87 and dividends of $0.84. The current dividend yield is 114% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.85. The current P/S Ratio is 0.62 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $4,923M, Revenue per Share of $40.20 and a stock price of $24.87. The current ratio is 27% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Both dividend yield tests say this. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the other tests that are good are saying the stock price is either reasonable or cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3) and Buy (3). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $35.00 with a high of $40.00 and low of $31.00. The consensus price of $35.00 implies a total return of 44.11% with 40.73% from capital gains and 3.38% from dividends.

There is only one analyst recommendation on Stock Chase and it is for 2022. It is a Do not Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. This stock is on the Maple Money and Aristocrats dividend lists. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this stock will recover. Karen Thomas on Motley Fool likes the 3.44% dividend. The company put out a Press Release on their 2022 results. The company put out a Press Release on their third quarter of 2023.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviewed this stock and its dividend. Simply Wall Street gives 3 warnings on this stock of earnings have declined by 58.6% per year over past 5 years; dividend of 3.35% is not well covered by earnings or cash flows; and debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 1 and one half stars out of 5.

Maple Leaf Foods Inc is a producer of food products under leading brands, including Maple Leaf, Maple Leaf Prime Maple Leaf Natural Selections, Schneiders, Schneiders Country Naturals, Mina, Greenfield Natural Meat Co., Lightlife, and Field Roast. Its main markets are Canada, the United States, Japan, and China. Its web site is here Maple Leaf Foods Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc (TSX-NBLY, OTC- NBLYF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be KP Tissue Inc (TSX-KPT, OTC-KPTSF) ... learn more on Tuesday, December 26, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures

Thursday, December 21, 2023

Testing 7

Paragraph from Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc is below. When I try to include it, my blog for Neighbourly gets deleted due to breaching of community values.

Of the 3 analysts on Stock Chase one made a comment, one said Buy and one said Hold. It is not on any of my dividend lists as it is new. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks this stock has years of potential growth ahead of it. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool has a target price of $24.89. The company put out a press release on their four quarter and year end results on newswire. The company put out a press release on newswire of their second quarter of 2024.

Testing 6

Of the 3 analysts on Stock Chase one made a comment, one said Buy and one said Hold. It is not on any of my dividend lists as it is new. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks this stock has years of potential growth ahead of it. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool has a target price of $24.89. The company put out a press release on their four quarter and year end results on newswire.

Testing 5

Of the 3 analysts on Stock Chase one made a comment, one said Buy and one said Hold. It is not on any of my dividend lists as it is new. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks this stock has years of potential growth ahead of it. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool has a target price of $24.89.

Testing 4

Of the 3 analysts on Stock Chase one made a comment, one said Buy and one said Hold. It is not on any of my dividend lists as it is new. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks this stock has years of potential growth ahead of it.

Testing 3

Of the 3 analysts on Stock Chase one made a comment, one said Buy and one said Hold. It is not on any of my dividend lists as it is new. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5.

Testing

Of the 3 analysts on Stock Chase one made a comment, one said Buy and one said Hold. It is not on any of my dividend lists as it is new.

Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc

This morning I bought some more shares in this company of Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc. I realize it is highly risky and I used my fooling around money.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed per share Revenue per share is down because of outstanding shares are growing much faster than revenue. Debt Ratios are fine The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth flat, but expected to rise. See my spreadsheet on Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I always like companies that pay dividends, because with paying dividends, the company does have to come up with cash to do so. This is a recently issued small cap company and buying it is risky. The current stock price is testing as cheap.

I own this stock of Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc (TSX-NBLY, OTC-NBLYF). I read about it on the on Daily Advice website that has since disappeared. This company has a financial year ending March 31 each year, so I am reviewing the financial year ending March 31, 2023.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed per share Revenue per share is down because of outstanding shares are growing much faster than revenue. Revenue has grown over the past 5 years at 52% per year, Revenue per Share over the past 5 years is down 39% per year. This is because the number of shares outstanding has grown at 148% per year.

If you had invested in this company at issued on May 24, 2021, for $1,012.05 you would have bought 45 shares at $22.49 per share. In December 2022, after 2 years you would have received $14.76 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,052.55. Your total return would have been $1,067.31. This is a total return would be a total return of 3.36% per year with 2.46% from capital gain and 0.90% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$22.49 $1,012.05 45 2 $14.76 $1,052.55 $1,067.31

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth flat, but expected to rise. The current dividend yield is low (below2%) at just 1.16%. The 2 year median is also low at 0.61%. The dividends were increased after the first one was issued in 2022 and that increase was for 22%, but dividends have been flat since. Analysts think there will be an increase soon.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2022 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is showing as 0% because of EPS loss. The DPR for 2022 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 39%. The DPR for 2022 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 20%. The DPR for 2022 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is 19%. There is no 5 year coverage as dividends have only paid for 3 years or since 2021.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 0.00% 0.00%
AEPS 39.13% 0.00%
CFPS 20.47% 0.00%
FCF 18.58% 10.89%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good at 0.22 and currently at 0.31. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is a bit low at 1.22 and 1.17 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.50 and 1.74. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 2.27 and 2.16 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are good at 1.81 and 1.80 and currently at 1.88 and 0.87.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.22 0.31
Intang/GW 0.78 1.04
Liquidity 1.22 1.17
Liq. + CF 1.50 1.77
Debt Ratio 2.27 2.16
Leverage 1.81 1.88
D/E Ratio 0.80 0.87

The Total Return per year is shown below for years 2 years to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2021 2 21.62% 299.60% 292.88% 6.72%

The 2-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are all negative and so useless.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (data). The 2-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 59.18, 70.28 and 70.28. The current P/AEPS ratio 27.58 based on a stock price of $15.50 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $0.56. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 2 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $12.91. The 3-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.45, 2.67 and 2.67. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.20 based on a stock price of 15.50. The current ratio is below the low ratio of 3 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 3-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.77. The current P/B Ratio is 1.17 based on a stock price of $15.50, Book Value of $590M, and Book Value per Share of $13.23. The current P/B Ratio is 34% below the 3 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 3-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 21.70. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.49 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $2.07, Cash Flow of $92.3M and a stock price of $15.50. The current ratio is 65% below the 3 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 2 year and historical median dividend yield of 0.61%. The current dividend is 1.16% based on dividends of $0.18 and a stock price of $15.50. This dividend yield is 90% above the 2 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 2-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.98. The current P/S Ratio is 75 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $918M, Revenue per Share of $20.58 and a stock price of $15.50. The current ratio is 62% below the 2 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The company only went public in May of 2021, so I do not have much to work with. However, all my tests are pointing to the stock price being relatively cheap. My favourite one of dividend yield is saying this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. This is a lot of analysts following a start-up. The 12 months target price is $21.29 with a high of $28.00 and a low of $18.50. The 12 month target price of $21.29 implies a total return of 38.52% with 37.35% from capital gains and 1.16% from dividends.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about who owns this company. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars. They give one warning of volatile share price over the past 3 months.

Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc is a network of community pharmacies. Its pharmacies act as the centre of care within their communities, representing an indispensable source of both healthcare delivery and trusted advice for their patients. Its web site is here Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-EFN, OTC-ELEEF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Maple Leaf Foods Inc (TSX-MFI, OTC-MLFNF) ... learn more on Friday, December 22, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Stocktrades .... learn more on Thursday, December 21, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, December 18, 2023

Element Fleet Management Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive, but might still be reasonable. They have too much debt and they should improve their Debt Ratios. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth volatile. See my spreadsheet on Element Fleet Management Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that they have too much debt and that is a negative. There has been low growth in Revenue over the past 5 years, but it seems to be picking up this year. A lot of analysts are positive about its future. The dividend yield tests are signaling a reasonable price, but it is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test.

I do not own this stock of Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-EFN, OTC-ELEEF). I was looking for stocks to follow and I found this stock in 100 best Dividend Stocks Money Sense for 2018. It was also on Raymond James' top 19 Canadian stocks for 2019 list.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed growth is slower over the past 5 years than over the past 10 years.

Year Item Tot. Growth Per Year
5 Revenue Growth 18.91% 3.52%
5 AEPS Growth 28.92% 5.21%
5 Net Income Growth 164.89% 21.51%
5 Cash Flow Growth 4049.29% 110.67%
5 Dividend Growth 24.00% 4.40%
5 Stock Price Growth 94.21% 14.20%
10 Revenue Growth 2972.05% 40.85%
10 AEPS Growth 1437.50% 31.43%
10 Net Income Growth 6480.73% 51.99%
10 Cash Flow Growth 14278.70% 64.35%
6 Dividend Growth 210.00% 17.54%
10 Stock Price Growth 159.86% 10.02%

This company’s growth has been generally good over the past 12 month to the end of the third quarter of 2023 and it is expected to be good for this year. The only problem growth is with Cash Flow and that is expected to decline.

Item 12 Mths This Year
Revenue Growth 10.70% 14.04%
AEPS Growth 18.69% 22.43%
Net Income Growth 11.44% 53.30%
Cash Flow Growth -70.54% -70.54%
Dividend Growth 54.84% 35.48%
Stock Price Growth 20.11% 38.86%

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth volatile. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.19%. The 5 and 6 year median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.94% and 1.94%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is low (below 8%) at 4.4% per year over the past 5 years. However, over the past 6 years dividends have grown in 4 of them and decreased in 1 of them. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 54.8%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2022 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is 33% with 5 year coverage at 70%. The DPR for 2022 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 29% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for 2022 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 4% with 5 year coverage at 7%. The DPR for 2022 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is 94% with 5 year coverage at 11%.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 32.98% 70.29%
AEPS 28.97% 29.45%
CFPS 3.63% 7.12%
FCF 94.48% 11.38%

They have too much debt and they should improve their Debt Ratios. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 too high at 1.22 and currently at 1.19. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is too low at 0.60 and 0.49 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios the current ratio is fine at 2.43, but the current one is far too low at 0.84. This ratio needs to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is lower than what I like at 1.35 and 1.32 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are too high at 4.52 and 3.36 and currently at 4.55 and 3.44.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 1.22 1.19
Intang/GW 0.30 0.25
Liquidity 0.60 0.49
Liq. + CF 2.43 0.84
Debt Ratio 1.35 1.32
Leverage 4.52 4.55
D/E Ratio 3.36 3.44

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 11 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2017 5 4.40% 16.21% 14.20% 2.01%
2012 10 20.75% 15.37% 10.02% 5.35%
2011 11 18.66% 13.02% 5.63%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.13, 17.88 and 20.79. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.43, 18.38 and 22.72. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.41, 17.06 and 20.41. The current P/E Ratio is 18.73 based on a stock price of $21.91 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.17. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.75, 12.59 and 16.43. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.91, 13.06 and 16.84. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 16.73 based on a stock price of $21.91 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $1.31. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $16.43. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.69, 0.90 and 1.17. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.33 based on a stock price of $21.91. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.34. The current P/B Ratio is 2.39 based on a Book Value of $3,959M, Book Value per Share of $9.16 and a stock price of $21.91. The current ratio is 79% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.13. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.62 based on Cash Flow of $740M for the last 12 months, Cash Flow per Share of $1.89 and a stock price of $21.91. The current ratio is 271% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.94%. The current dividend yield is 2.19% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $21.91. The current dividend yield is 13% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.94%. The current dividend yield is 2.19% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $21.91. The current dividend yield is 13% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.06. The current P/S Ratio is 6.66 based on a Revenue estimate for 2023 of $1291M, Revenue per Share of $3.29 and a stock price of $21.91. The current ratio is 32% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive, but might still be reasonable. The dividend yield tests say the stock price is reasonable, but this is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test that says the stock price is relatively expensive. Other tests run from reasonable to expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (4) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $25.62, with a high of $31.00 and low of $22.00. The consensus of $25.62 implies a total return of 19.12% with 16.93% from capital gains and 2.19% from dividends.

There are a lot of recommendations on Stock Chase this stock and the analysts like this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool thinks this is a growth stock to get rich by. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a strong investment choice. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their results for 2022. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their third quarter of 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street put out a report via Yahoo Finance on this stock. Simply Wall Street has two warnings on this stock of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; and dividend of 2.17% is not well covered by cash flows. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 star and one half stars out of 5.

Element Fleet Management Corp is a fleet management company, providing services and financings for commercial vehicle and equipment fleets. The company operates in U.S., Canada, Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand. Its web site is here Element Fleet Management Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bird Construction Inc (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc (TSX-NBLY, OTC- NBLYF) ... learn more on Wednesday, December 20, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Bloggers .... learn more on Tuesday, December 19, 2023 around 5 pm.

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