Monday, June 26, 2017

Saputo Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Price is reasonable, but above the median. That means that the price is relatively high but not excessively so. This is a good stock and it is a dividend growth stock in the consumer sector. It is a bit pricy, but that is all. See my spreadsheet on Saputo Inc.

I own this stock of Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list and on the dividend lists that I followed. I bought this stock first in 2006 for my RRSP account. Because I am now taking money from my RRSP accounts, I have been selling this stock because of the low dividend. I still like this stock so I have been buying it in my TFSA.

Dividends have generally been low. The current dividend yield is 1.44%. The historical median yield is 1.73% and the 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are 1.56% and 1.75%. The dividend growth used to be good and it has a 10 year growth of 21.8% per year. However, lately it has been moderate with the 5 year dividend growth at 9.9%. The last dividend change was for 11.1% and it occurred in 2016.

They can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2016 is 31.8% and the 5 year coverage is 33.4%. The DPR for CFPS is 17.1% and the 5 year coverage is 17.8%. The dividend growth is down because the growth in EPS is down.

The debt ratios are quite good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.99 and the Debt Ratio is 2.98 for 2016. Good ratios are 1.50 and above, so these are quite good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.76 and 0.76.

The other thing to mention is the Return on Equity (ROE). I have about 22 years of data and the ROE has not been lower than 10% in any of these years. The current ROE is 16.9% and the 5 year median is also 16.9%.

I look at my spreadsheet and all I see is green. There is good growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow.

I get 5 year Price/Earnings per Share of $17.99, 21.17 and 24.35. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 16.97, 19.12 and 22.02. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.79, 18.19 and 21.18. The current P/E Ratio is 19.77 based on a stock price of $41.71 and 2017 EPS estimate of $2.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. It is basically around the median.

I get a Graham price of $23.05. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.55, 1.79 and 2.01. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.51. The current P/B Ratio is 3.73. This is based on a stock price of $41.71 and BVPS of $11.19 (BV $4.323M). The current P/B Ratio is some 6% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The historical dividend yield is 1.73%. The current dividend yield is 1.44% based on a stock price of $41.71 and dividends of $0.60. The current dividend yield is some 16.9% lower than the historical one. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year P/S Ratio is 1.20. The current P/S Ratio is 1.37 based on a stock price of $41.71, 2017 Revenue estimate of $11,754M and 2017 Revenue per Share estimate of $30.43. The current ratio is some 14.4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $47.67. This implies a total return of 15.73% with 14.29% from capital gains and 1.44% from dividends based on a current stock price of $41.71%.

Ryan Goldsman at Motley Fool seems to like this stock. Staff at Union Trade Journal gives some technical scores for this stock. They say that the Piotroski F-Score is 8 which mean the stock is a high value stock. Daniel Jordon on Sports Perspectives talks about what some analysts are recently saying about this stock. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They mostly like it.

Saputo produces, markets, and distributes a wide array of products of the utmost quality, including cheese, fluid milk, yogurt, dairy ingredients and snack-cakes. Saputo is the twelfth largest dairy processor in the world, the largest in Canada; the third largest in Argentina and among the top three cheese producers in the United States. Their products are sold in more than 50 countries under well-known brand names. Its web site is here Saputo Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Parkland Fuel Corp. (TSX-PKI, OTC-PKIUF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (TSX-AGT, OTC-AGXXF)... learn more on Wednesday, June 28, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about T-Bills and Stocks ... learn more on Tuesday, June 27m 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Parkland Fuel Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. All my testing is showing that the stock is relatively expensive currently. It has certainly done well for its shareholders being up some 23.54% over the past 5 years with 17.26% from capital gains and 6.28% from dividends. See my spreadsheet on Parkland Fuel Corp.

I do not own this stock of Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX-PKI, OTC-PKIUF). I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock as it was a stock recommended by Roger Conrad in Money Show 2013.

For this stock, dividends and their growth is all over the place. There have been big increases and decreases in the past. In 2008, dividends were increased by 43%. They did not change in the next two years and then in 2011 they were decreased by 19%. The current dividend is moderate at 3.81%, but it has been much higher in the past with a 10 year median of 6.19%, a historical one of 8.94% and an adjusted historical yield of 7.24%.

The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 1.50% and 4.28% per year. The last increase was for 1.8% and it was in 2017. They cannot afford the dividends any longer so increase percentages are going down.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 was 228% with a 5 year ratio of 130%. The DPR is expected to go to 155% this year and analysts' think that it can cover their dividends again in 2019. Of course, the longer the look out the more inaccurate it tends to be.

This is a stock that was written up in the Money Letter from MPL Communications that puts out the Investment Reporter. This publication company is known for recommending good solid investment stocks. See the item on this here.

The company has not done that well lately, but it is connected to the oil and gas industry. The ROE for 2016 was just 5.5% with a 5 year median of 8.8%. Earnings per Share (EPS) are down by 7.7% and 10.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect the earnings to go up by 51% to $0.74 in 2017. However, for the first quarter EPS is down by 8% if you compared the 12 months ending at the end of the first quarter to the EPS of 2016.

The outstanding shares have been increasing over the past 5 and 10 years at 8.4% and 9.6% per year. This means that it is per share growth that one to look at. Revenue per Share is only up by 1% and 7.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years compared to the growth in Revenue at 9.5% and 18% per year.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.36, 30.67 and 34.77. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 12.01, 14.42 and 17.80. The historical ratios are 11.48, 15.51 and 20.08. The reason for the most recent P/E Ratios to be high is that as EPS declined, the stock price did not. The current P/E Ratio is 40.96. This is based on a stock price of $30.31 and 2017 EPS estimates of $0.74. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $11.79. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.14, 1.36 and 1.71. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.57 based on a stock price of $30.31. I must admit I find that the P/GP Ratios rather high for an industrial stock. In any event, this stock price testing also shows that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.94. The current P/B Ratio is 3.63 based on BVPS of $8.35 ($806.7M BV) and a stock price of $30.31. The current ratio is some 23.6% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

The dividend yield on this stock has been very high in the past. The adjusted historical median dividend yield is 7.25%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.21%. The current dividend yield is 3.81% based on dividends of $1.15 and stock price of $30.31. No matter how you look at dividend yield, it shows that the stock is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most are a Buy recommendations and the consensus is a Buy recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $35.82. This implies a total return of 21.99% with 18.18% from capital gain and 3.81% from dividends.

EBU staff rider at the Business Union says that this company has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index of -144.20 which implies the stock is oversold and ready for a rally. Renata Jones on Sports Perspectives says a number of companies are rating this stock a Buy. Kay Ng of Motley Fool likes this stock. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They rather like this company.

Parkland Fuel Corporation is a marketer and distributor of fuels, managing a nationwide network of sales channels for retail, commercial, wholesale and home heating fuel customers. Its web site is here Parkland Fuel Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF)... learn more on Monday, June 26, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Computer Modelling Group Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth tech. This is considered a tech stock, but it is also in the oil and gas sector. It is lately having a hard time as is every stock in the oil and gas sector. The price is probably reasonable. See my spreadsheet on Computer Modelling Group Ltd.

I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF). When selling SNC in July 2008, I was looking for something to buy. This company is a dividend paying growth stock that would also be considered to be a small cap with a capitalization at that time of around $115 million. At that time Insiders were buying this stock. It has great growth and it is information technology a favourite sector of mine.

This stock used to have a good record of increasing the dividends. However, it is having a hard time as is all the stocks in the oil and gas sector. Currently they are having a hard time covering the dividend with earnings. They have prudently stopped increasing their dividends. The dividends have been flat since 2015. I doubt there will be any dividend increases until the EPS is above the dividends again. Analysts do not expect that to have over the next couple of years. Analysts do not expect the dividends to decrease either over the next couple of years.

This has been a great stock for me. I have held it for 8.9 years and my total return is 26.99% with 19.72% from capital gains and 7.27% from dividends. The dividends I have received so far have covered 102% of the cost of my shares. I am making a dividend yield of 17.4% on my original stock purchase price.

The thing is that I will continue to do fine on this stock, but people buying it today will not do as well. The easy money on this stock has been made. However, it could do very well again if oil and gas picks up in price. It is hard to know if and when this might occur.

A positive point is that the stock has very good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.96. It has no long term debt. The Debt Ratios is 2.22. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.82 and 0.82 respectively.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are 20.70, 30.26 and 37.95. The corresponding 10 year values are 20.34, 25.62 and 30.86. The historical ratios are 9.59, 13.15 and 16.98. The P/E Ratios have grown over time, especially after 2010. The current P/E Ratio is 33.83 based on a stock price of $10.15 and 2017 EPS estimate of $0.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price might be reasonable, but it is above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $2.23. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.60, 3.64 and 4.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 4.55 based on a stock price of $10.15. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 11.77. The current P/B Ratio is 13.74 based on a stock price of $10.15 and BVPS of $0.74 ($58.178M BV). The current P/B Ratio is some 16.7% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median.

The historical dividend yield is 3.55%. This current dividend yield is 3.94% based on dividends of $0.40 and a stock price of $10.15. The current dividend yield is some 11% higher than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold, and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $9.81. This is below the current stock price of $10.15. So the total return would be 0.59% with 3.94% from dividends and a capital loss of 3.35%.

Renata Jones on Sports Perspectives talks about insider selling at this company. Over the past year the Insider Selling/Market Cap Ratio was 0.48%. This is very high as generally this ratio is in the 0.01% or 0.02% range. The problem with selling is that you never know why people are selling. When there is insider buying you know it is because the insider feel good about the company's future.

When insiders sell it could be for a lot of reasons. They may just need to money. Often in tech companies people are selling because of stock options and they look at stock options as part of their salary. For this company I am following the shares held by the CEO, CFO, another officer, two directors and the Chairman. Here the officer, one director and the chairman had the same number of shares as last year. The CFO and one director increased their shares. The CEO decreased his shares.

Sarah Dixon on Clayton News Review gives some technical analysis of this company. She said it has a The Piotroski F-Score of 6, where a score of 9 shows good financial strength and a sore of one show a low value stock. Demetris Afxentiou of Motley Fool likes this stock. See what analysts think of this stock on Stock Chase. They mostly like it, but it is not widely followed.

Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling Group Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was CI Financial Corp (TSX-CIX, OTC- CIFAF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Parkland Fuel Corp. (TSX-PKI, OTC-PKIUF)... learn more on Friday, June 23, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Debt Ratios... learn more on Thursday, June 22, 2017around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, June 19, 2017

CI Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Stock price is relatively cheap to reasonable. This industry might have seen better days, but I doubt if it will fold up anytime soon. People have been forecasting the demise of this industry for years mainly because of the high fees and mutual fund not beating the market. The industry is slowing changing, but people are still buying mutual funds. See my spreadsheet on CI Financial Corp.

I do not own this stock of CI Financial Corp (TSX-CIX, OTC-CIFAF). I started to follow this stock originally because it was a Mutual Fund company. People talked about it being easier to make money from buying a Mutual Fund company than buying Mutual Funds. When they became a Unit Trust in 2006, dividends were significantly increased, but these dividends proved to be unsustainable. They changed back to a corporation in 2009 and dividends were decreased in 2010.

Since that time, they have been increasing their dividends since 2011. In June 2014, MPL communications called this stock a Buy and advised that they were adding it to their list of Key Stock for the Investment reporter.

Currently the dividend is moderate to good and the dividend increases moderate. These have been up and down during this company's history, but that was because it became an income trust and then a corporation again. The current dividend is 5.21% which is good, but the historical median dividend yield is 3.47% which is moderate.

The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 9% and 15.7% per year. The 9% increase is moderate and the 15.7% is good. The last dividend increase was in 2017 and it was for just 2.2% which is a low increase. The increase in 2015 was low also at 4.5%.

They can afford the dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 for EPS is 73.2% and the 5 year median is 69.2%. The Dividend Payout Ratio of 2016 for CFPS is a bit high at 58% with a 5 year median of 52%. I prefer to see the last one no higher than 40%.

For Mutual Fund companies, analysts tend to look at Assets under Management (AUM) rather than revenue to see if there is growth. For this company the AUM has grown by 11% and 7.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This growth is quite good.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.57, 18.32 and 19.89. The 10 year values are 14.66, 16.51 and 19.08. The historical values are 15.93, 18.32 and 20.10. The current P/E Ratio is 12.64 based on a stock price of $27.05 and 2017 EPS estimate of $2.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $17.70. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.49, 1.69 and 1.95. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.53 based on a stock price of $27.05. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.99. The current P/B Ratio is 4.16 a values some 4% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $6.51 (BV of $1724.1M) and a stock price of $27.05. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The historical median dividend yield is 3.47%. The current dividend yield is 5.21% a value some 50% higher based on dividends of $1.41 and a stock price of $27.05. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year P/S Ratio is 4.31. The current P/S Ratio is 3.48 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $2060M, Revenue per Share of $7.76 and a stock price of $27.05. The current P/S Ratio is some 19% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. (If the current ratio had been 20% then the 10 year median, then the stock price test would be showing that the stock is relatively cheap.)

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $29.61. This implies a total return of 14.68% with 9.46% from capital gains and 5.21% from dividends.

Stephanie Bedard-Chateauneuf of Motley Fool likes this company better than IGM Financial Inc. (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF). Sarah Dixon on Clayton News Review gives some statistics on this stock. She says that the The Piotroski F-Score on this stock is 6. Ivanka Thompson on Bangalore Weekly talks about some recent analysts' recommendations on this stock. Analysts have mixed views on Stock Chase.

CI Financial Corp. is a diversified wealth management firm and one of Canada's largest investment fund companies. CI is an Independent and Canadian-owned company. This company promotes and manages mutual funds and other investment products through its wholly-owned subsidiaries of CI Investments Inc., and Assante Wealth Management. CI became a public company in June 1994. It was then listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Its web site is here CI Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NTSE-AQN)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF)... learn more on Wednesday, June 21, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about More is Not Better... learn more on Tuesday, June 20, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Stock price is probably reasonable. The main reason for the stock price testing to be so different is that although revenue has been growing faster than book value and growth is in the last 5 years. The 10 year growth is much lower than the 5 year growth. See my spreadsheet on Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.

I do not own this stock of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NTSE-AQN). This is a dividend paying utility stocks. I got it off a list of dividend paying utility stocks. Also, I own Emera Inc. and this company owns shares in Algonquin Power.

This stock started to be listed on the NYSE in November of 2016. Here is the announcement on Newswire.

This is a Canadian company that reports in Canadian dollars, but pays the dividend in US$. They are listed on the NYSE. I find this paying dividends in US$ annoying. I do not like US$ dividends as you never know exactly what you are going to get. Also, since they report in CDN$ it is hard to valuate about Dividend Payout Ratios. (It is easy to get it wrong.)

They switched to paying dividends in US$ in 2014. So looking at dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years in US$ and CDN$ you get quite different values. The growth of the dividends over the past 5 years in US$ is 9.61% per year and in CDN$ is 15.87% per year. The decline in dividends over the past 10 years is in US$ at 6.46% per year and in CDN$ is 5.13% per year.

This company used to be an income trust company. As such it decreased it dividends by some 74% when it changed to a corporation. The change was in 2009 and the dividend decreases was in 2008. The company started to increase their dividends again in 2010.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 was high at 123% and it has a 5 year median of 123% also. However, they did have a tax pool that will probably last until 2019. Also, analysts expect the DPR for EPS will be around 99% in 2017. They seem to have a good chance to have a reasonable DPR for EPS before the Tax Pool runs out.

Debt Ratios are marginal. The Liquidity Ratio for 2017 is just 0.90 with a 5 year median of 1.08. A Liquidity Ratio below 1.00 means that current cash cannot cover current liabilities. With cash flow added in after dividends it becomes 1.16. It is typical for utilities to need cash flow to get a high enough Liquidity Ratio. The Debt Ratio is 1.43 with a 5 year median of 1.81. I like both of these to be at 1.50 or above for the sake of safety.

The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are even a little too high for a utility at 4.29 and 3.00. I prefer these for utilities to be below 4.00 and 3.00 respectively. For 2017 the Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 1.25. It is not good for this ratio to be close or above 1.00. If the ratio is 1.00, it means that Long Term debt is equal to the stock's market cap. However, in the first quarter it moved down to 0.89 because of lower long term debt and higher market cap.

The Return on Equity is below 10% always. The ROE for 2017 is 6.3% and the 5 year median is 5.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income is somewhat better over the past 5 years with a 5 year median of 8.9%, but the ROE on comprehensive income was 5.2% in 2017.

It is interesting to look at this company long term. The capital gain is at 0.45%, 0.61% 1.38% and 12.15% per year over the past 19, 15, 10 and 5 years. This company was listed on TSX in December 1997, 19 years ago. The total return is at 7.33%, 6.69%, 5.84% and 17% per year over the same time periods. In the early years, the return was all dividends. This can occur in income trust stock. However, once a company becomes a corporation, dividends will be lower. Before the dividends were decreased, the long term median dividend yield was 9.1%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are 23.61, 27.63 and 32.55. The 10 year values are 23.16, 26.55 and 29.29. The historical values are 23.75, 27.63 and 31.22. I think that these are rather high for a utility stock. The current P/E Ratio for is 22.13 based on a stock price of 13.94 and 2017 EPS estimate of $0.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of 10.12. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.19, 1.40 and 1.58. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.38 based on a stock price of $13.94. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.49. The current P/B ratio is 1.76. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $7.22 ($2,778.6M BV) and a stock price of $13.94. The current P/B Ratio is some 29% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

If I use an adjusted historical median dividend yield, which I get to be 2.99%, the current Dividend yield of 4.50% is some 50% higher. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.63 CDN$ ($0.47 US$), current exchange rate of 1.3453 and a stock price of $3.94. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 2.38. The current P/S Ratio is 2.49 based on a stock price of 13.94, Revenue of $2,150M and Revenue per Share of $5.59. The current P/S Ratio is some 5% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.30. This implies a total return of 7.08% with 2.58% from capital gains and 4.50% from dividends based on a current stock price of $13.94.

Ryan Goldsman at Motley Fool calls this a defensive company. Chris MacDonald on Bay Street talks about insider buying. Tristan Rich on The Markets Daily talks about recent recommendations for this stock. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. They remark on its recent run-up.

APUC owns and operates a diversified portfolio of clean renewable electric generation and sustainable utility distribution businesses in North America. Liberty Water Co., APUC's water utility subsidiary, provides regulated water utility services. Through its wholly owned subsidiary Liberty Energy Utilities Co., APUC provides regulated electricity and natural gas distribution services. Algonquin Power Co., APUC's electric generation subsidiary, includes renewable energy facilities and thermal energy facilities. Its web site is here Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Power Corp of Canada (TSX-POW, OTC-PWCDF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be CI Financial Corp (TSX-CIX, OTC- CIFAF)... learn more on Monday, June19, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Power Corp of Canada

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Stock. The way to make money long term is buy good dividend growth companies when they are cheap (or at least at a reasonable price) and hold on to them. This company is rather cheap and it is a dividend growth company. See my spreadsheet on Power Corp of Canada.

I do not own this stock of Power Corp of Canada (TSX-POW, OTC-PWCDF). I started following this stock because it was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats lists and also on Mike Higgs' list. It is a stock that I notice has been recommended lately as good value (October 2008). I would not buy it because I have shares in Power Financial, which this company controls. My son owns this company as he bought it instead of Power Financial.

Currently, the dividend yield on this stock is good with low growth. The current dividend yield is 4.91% based on dividends of $1.43 and a stock price of $29.19. The 5 year median is 4%. The growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 4% and 5.6% per year. There was no dividend growth from 2010 and 2014 inclusive and this is why dividend growth has been quite low lately.

This company is in financial services and these sorts of company have had a hard time coming out of the last recession. They own a lot of insurance companies and insurance companies especially had a hard time dealing with very low interest rates.

This company used to have moderate dividend yields and good growth. The dividends used to be in the 2% range and the dividend increases in the 17% range. I do not see this happening again with the very low interest rates. It is hard to say how long we will have very low interest rates. These sorts of things go on longer than you image.

The stock has picked up recently. Over the past 5 years the stock has a total return of 9.37% per year with 4.76% per year from capital gains and 4.61% per year from dividends. The 10 year return is lousy with a total return of 1.89% per year with a capital loss of 1.59% per year and dividends of 3.49% per year.

I have data on this company back to 1987, so I took a look at 15 and 20 year returns. The total return over the past 15 years is 6.72% per year with 2.93% per year from capital gains 3.78% per year from dividends. The total return over the past 20 years is 12.35% per year with 7.65% per year from capital gains and 4.69% per year from dividends. This is rather quite a good longer term return. That is why I buy and hold for the longer term.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.54, 12.46 and 13.38. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.96, 13.12 and 14.37. The historical ratios are 10.97, 13.10 and 15.00. The current P/E Ratio is 12.37 based on a stock price of $29.19 and EPS estimate for 2017 of 2.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median or slightly below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $46.56. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.75, 0.92 and 1.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $29.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.34. The current P/B Ratio is 0.72 a values some 46% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $40.82 ($18,932M BV) and a stock price of $29.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical dividend yield is 2.30%. The current dividend yield is 4.91% based on a stock price of $29.19 and dividends of $1.43. The current dividend yield is some 113% higher than the historical dividend yield. Even the 5 year median dividend yield is 23% lower at 4%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold so the consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $33.29. This implies a total return of 18.96% with 14.05% from capital gains and 4.91% from dividends. To me these figures do not match up as it is a good return for a Hold recommendation.

Power Corporation of Canada is a diversified international management and holding company with interests in companies in the financial services, communications and other business sectors in North America, Europe and Asia. Some of it subsidiary companies include Power Financial, the Pargesa group and Gesca and Square Victoria Digital Properties. Its web site is here Power Corp of Canada.

Sandrine Rastello and Gerrit De Vynck via Bloomberg writes in the Globe and Mail about Power Corp inviting in FinTech to spur innovation in the company. They see FinTech as the future. Staff writers at The Standard talks about some technical indicators for this stock. The RSI indicators show that the stock is neither under or overvalued. Marguerite Chambers on Huron Report talks about recent analysts ratings for this company. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Views vary widely on this company.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Liquor Stores N. A. Ltd. (TSX-LIQ, OTC-LQSIF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NTSE-AQN)... learn more on Friday, June 16, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Investing Easy... learn more on Thursday, June 15, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, June 12, 2017

Liquor Stores N.A. Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Turnaround situation? I think that the price may not be bad, but it is a risk. The thing is that this is a turnaround situation on a consumer type company. These companies do not generally have big wins so even if it is turned around, can you image shareholders making a really big profit for the risk taken? However, I can see a current shareholder keeping the stock and possibly get a decent return for their money. The problem is how long will this take? See my spreadsheet on Liquor Stores N.A.

I do not own this stock of Liquor Stores N. A. Ltd. (TSX-LIQ, OTC-LQSIF). The idea of following this stock came from a reader of my blog. My first impression and continuing impression on this stock is that this is liquor sales company that cannot seem to make a profit.

This used to be an income trust company. It decreased its dividends by some 33% when it because a corporation. It obviously was not enough because the lower dividend was unstainable also. For this year they further decreased the dividend by 66.7% or 78% in total from its income trust dividend.

They are expected to be able to cover their dividend in 2017 with a Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS of around 87.8%. It was at 2700% in 2017. This is because they made so little in 2017. The DPR for CFPS was also high and for 2016 it was 84.7%, but is expected to be a more respectable value of 41.8% in 2017. Analysts do not expect any more changes to the dividends over the next few years.

Not only does a company need increasing revenue, but they need to be able to make a profit on their revenue. For this company, their earnings peaked in 2010. I must say that a lot of consumer companies are currently having a hard time in the long slow recovery that has been going on.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.91, 22.96 and 27.02. The 10 year values are 16.7, 19.01 and 24.05. The historical values are 14.86, 16.43 and 23.47. The current P/E Ratio is 25.12 based on a stock price of $10.30 and 2017 EPS estimate of $0.41. This is rather a high P/E Ratio for a stock that might be a turnaround situation. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expansive.

I would think that the historical ratios are more realistic P/E Ratios for a consumer stock. The thing is that no matter how low the EPS goes the stock price will only fall so much because there is value in the company. The P/E Ratios are sometimes not the best way to determine if a stock price is good or not.

I get a Graham Price of 8.63. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 1.04 and 1.26. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.19 based on a stock price of $10.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.13. The current P/B Ratio is 1.27 based on a BVPS of $8.08 ($223.5M BV) and a stock price of $10.30. The current P/B Ratio is some 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. Also, note that a P/B Ratio of 1.50 and below is considered a good P/B Ratio. So the current P/B Ratio of 1.27 is still on the low side.

Using the Dividend Yield as a test is not great one for this stock. First the stock used to be an income trust and income trust had higher dividend yields that the stock will ever see again. Secondly, the dividend have but cut twice by 33% in 2011 and by 66.7% in 2016. I get an adjusted historical median dividend yield of 4.38%.

The current dividend is 3.5% based on a current dividend of $0.36 and a stock price of $10.30. The current dividend is some 20% below the adjusted historical median and this would suggest that the stock is relatively expensive. On this test a current dividend at 20% or higher above the historical median suggest a relatively expensive price. So this test put the stock price just over the line.

The only stock price test that shows something different is the P/S Ratio test. The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 0.57. The current P/S Ratio is 0.35 based on Revenue estimate for 2017 of $819M, Revenue per Share estimate for 2017 of $29.61 and a stock price of $10.30. The current P/S Ratio is some 39% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

However, not only does a company need to have revenue, it also needs to make a profit from the revenue. This company so far has lately shown it can do that. It is certainly not easy to get a handle on what is a good price for the company. The current one could be reasonable.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold Recommendations. There are more Strong Buy and Buy recommendations than Hold recommendations and the consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $11.25. This implies a total return of 12.72% with 3.50% from dividends and 9.22% from capital gains.

According to a press release by Market Wired there are two proxy's for this company. One set of proxies are from the company and one set is from dissidents. Barry Critchley also talks about the proxy fight in a May article on the Financial Post. This news release by CNWsays that ISS agrees change is needed at Liquor Stores N.A. Renata Jones on Sports Perspectives talks about recent ratings on this company. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase.

Liquor Stores N.A. Ltd. is a Canada-based operator of retail liquor stores. The Company operates over stores in Alberta, British Columbia, New Jersey, Alaska and Kentucky. Its web site is here Liquor Stores N.A.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (TSX-ITP, OTC-ITPOF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Power Corp of Canada (TSX-POW, OTC-PWCDF)... learn more on Wednesday, June 14, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Success Long Term... learn more on Tuesday, June 13, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, June 9, 2017

Intertape Polymer Group Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. This stock is probably a dividend growth stock or is trying to be one. Stock price testing gets a current stock price that is relatively reasonable and around the median to one that is relatively expensive. Note that Ratios are the same in US$ terms and CDN$ terms. See my spreadsheet on Intertape Polymer Group Inc.

I do not own this stock of Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (TSX-ITP, OTC-ITPOF). I got this stock from Peter Keyser who I met in an Investment Club.

Dividends are paid in US$, so for a Canadian investor, you will never know exactly what your dividends will be. They only started to pay dividends in 2013 and they have grown at 19% per year over the past 3 years. However, analysts' do not seem to feel that dividends will grow any more over the next few years.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 for EPS was 63.5%. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is 58.6%. The DPR for CFPS was 25% in 2016 and the 5 year median is 25% also. So they can currently afford their dividends. Analysts expect the EPS to go up over the next couple of years, so affording the dividend should not be a problem.

Currently the dividend is moderate with good dividend growth. The current dividend yield is 3.24% based on a stock price of $23.31 CDN$ and dividends of $0.76 CDN$ ($0.56 US$). Yield would be the same in US$ and CDN$. As mentioned above the current dividend growth is 19% per year. However, if they do not raise the dividends this year this can change.

The debt ratios are good. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 2.17 for 2016. The 5 year median ratio is 2.32. The Debt Ratio is 1.72 for 2016 with a 5 year median of 1.80. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.39 and 1.39 respectively with 5 year median of 2.32 and 1.32. These last ratios are what would be expected for an Industrial stock.

Return on Equity was been above 10% for 5 of the last 5 years. The ROE for 2016 is 21% and the 5 year median is 21%. The ROE for comprehensive income is similar with the ratio for 2016 at 21.5% and the 5 year median at 21.1%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.68, 16.53 and 22.11. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 6.88, 11.66 and 14.51. The historical ones are 8.61, 15.26 and 21.70. The current P/E Ratio is 15.28 based on a stock price of $23.31 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.53 CDN$ and $1.13 US$. This stock price testing suggests at the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of 13.76 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.63, 1.04 and 1.40. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.69 based on a stock price of $23.31 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.64. The current P/B Ratio is 4.42 based on BVPS of $5.27 (BV $311.77 CDN$, $230.89 US$) and a stock price of $23.31 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is some 168% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The current dividend yield is 3.25% based on dividends of $0.76 CDN$ or $0.56 US$ and a stock price of $23.31 CDN$. The 4 year median dividend yield is 3.22% a value some 1% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

The 10 year P/S Ratio is 0.38 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 1.17 based on Revenue of $873M US$, Revenue per Share of $14.77 US$ and a stock price of $17.23 US$. The current P/S Ratio is some 209% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. (Note it does not matter if you test in US$ or CDN$, the test turn out the same.)

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy, so the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $20.82 US$ or $28.11 CDN$. This implies a total return of 24.09% with 3.25% from dividends and $20.84% from capital gains.

Vivian Currie on San Times talks about analysts' ratings on this stock. The stock recently had 3 Buy Ratings. Thomas Auclair on Simply Wall Street talks about this company's dividends. He said that they can afford them. Interestingly, he expect the dividends to decline from the current $0.56 US$ to $0.502 US$ in three years' time. Sarah Corning on Ozark Times gives a more technical analysis of this stock. She has an interesting way of looking at dividend growth. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. There are some interesting comments, but generally the stock is liked.

Intertape Polymer Group Inc. operates in the specialty packaging industry in North America. The Company develops, manufactures and sells a range of paper and film-based pressure sensitive and water activated tapes, polyethylene and specialized polyolefin packaging films, woven coated fabrics and complementary packaging systems for industrial and retail use. Its web site is here Intertape Polymer Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was IGM Financial Inc. (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Liquor Stores N. A. Ltd. (TSX-LIQ, OTC-LQSIF)... learn more on Monday, June 12, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

IGM Financial Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Mutual Fund Company. The dividend yield is good and the price is cheap to reasonable but below the median. You may not get a better price. But the stock is cheap because mutual fund companies have not done well lately and there may be further legislation or regulations done by the government in the near future. See my spreadsheet on IGM Financial Inc.

I do not own this stock of IGM Financial Inc. (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) but I used to. I originally bought this stock to replace AGF Management (TSX-AGF.B). IGM was known as a dividend growth stock and it was on a lot of lists of good stocks, including Mike Higgs' and Dividend Aristocrats. I sold this 2011 because I had Power Financial, of which this company is partially owned by and I wanted to rationalize my portfolio. So I sold this stock and bought more of Power Financial. I purposely sold at a low point to reduce taxes and did a buy at a low also.

This company used to have moderate dividends and good increases. Dividends median was just over 3%. The dividend growth to 2008 was over the previous 5 and 10 years at 15.1% and 18.1% per year. However, like a lot of financial companies they have had problems since 2008 recession. Current the dividend is good and the dividend growth is low. The current dividend is 5.6% and the dividend growth is 1.4% and 3.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

During the past 5 years the dividend was only increased twice, in 2012 and 2015 for 2.4% and 4.7%. There has been no increase so far this year and two dividends have already been paid. I would not expect any improvement anytime soon. However, analysts seem to feel that the company will raise their dividends over the next couple of years.

They can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2016 is 70.5% and the 5 year median is 71.9%. The DPR for CFPS for 2016 is 44.1% and the 5 year median DPR for CFPS is 43.6%. However, the DPR for CFPS I would prefer it to be 40% or lower. However, this ratio has always been in the 40% range.

Probably the thing to look at for growth is the Assets under Management (AUM). This has been growing lately but not strongly. The growth for the past 5 and 10 years is 3.6% and 1.7% per year. The AUM grew by 6.2% in 2016 and is expected to grow by 9% this year.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.40, 12.23 and 16.06. The corresponding 10 year values are 12.13, 14.52 and 16.66. The corresponding historical values are 11.49, 17.74 and 18.30. The current P/E Ratio is 12.39 based on a stock price of $40.01 and 2017 EPS estimate of 3.23. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $37.50. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.11, 1.26 and 1.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.07 based on a stock price of $40.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.47. The current P/B Ratio is 2.07 a value some 16% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on a Stock Price of $40.01 and BVPS of $19.35. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a historical median dividend yield is 3.37%. The current dividend yield is 5.62% based on dividends of $2.25 and a stock price of $40.01. The current dividend yield is some 67% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $43.22. This implies a total return of 13.65% with 8.02% from capital gains and 5.62% from dividends based on a stock price of $40.01.

Sarah Corning on Ozark Times talks about some interesting indicators on this stock. The Piotroski F-Score for this stock is 6 where 9 indicates a high value stock and 1 a low value stock. Stephanie Bedard-Chateauneuf on Motley Fool says she prefers CI (TSX-CIX., OTC-CIFAF) to this stock. Bank On Insight writer on Seeking Alpha is not keen on this stock either.

This is a mutual fund, managed asset and personal financial services company. The company has three operating units, Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation and Investment Planning Counsel Inc. IGM Financial Inc. is a member of the Power Financial Corporation group of companies. Its web site is here IGM Financial Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Waste Connections Inc. (TSX-WCN, NYSE-WCN)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (TSX-ITP, OTC-ITPOF)... learn more on Friday, June 9, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy June 2017... learn more on Thursday, June 8, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Waste Connections Inc.

Thanks for all the well wishes. I am fine today. I am generally in good health because I exercise and walk a lot so I hope I stay that way.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: In Waste Collection. This is considered to be an industrial services stock. It is in a business that will certainly go on in the future. It has been a profitable business. It has Buy ratings but I think it is expensive. Note that I go from Progressive Waste to Waste Connections in my analysis. See my spreadsheet on Waste Connections Inc.

I do not own this stock of Waste Connections Inc. (TSX-WCN, NYSE-WCN) but I used to own it as Progressive Waste Solutions. This big news, of course, is that there was a merger (or reverse takeover) between Waste Connections and Progressive Waste in the middle of 2016.

I first bought Progressive Waste in 2007 because TD Securities had a very favourable report on this stock and had it on it action buy lists. I had money because I had recently sold RIM. At that time it was an income fund. I sold my stake in this company in May 2016 just before the merger with Waste Connections. I find owning US companies a pain because you get dividends in US$ and you never know exactly what you will get.

This last time I reviewed this company it was called Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd (TSX-BIN, NYSE-BIN). The company merged with Waste Connections Inc. (TSX-WCN, NYSE-WCN). See the announcement by Waste Connections Inc. My spreadsheet and my review are going from Progressive Waste to Waste Connections.

I had done well on this stock. Over the 8.5 years I own Progressive Waste I earned 10.71% per year with 8.30% from capital gains and 2.41% from dividends. If I had kept my shares I would have earned a capital gain of 12.32% per year. Dividends are lower with the merger, but say I got 2% in dividends, that would be a total return of 14.32% per year over 9.6 years. However, I would have ended up with an odd number of shares as Progressive Waste shareholders got .4815 shares for each share owned.

For Canadians dividends have been decreased by around 30% in 2016 in preparation for the merger. Under Progressive Waste, dividends in the past have gone down as well as up. As far as I can see Progressive Waste went public in 2002 as BFI Canada Income Fund and paid dividends since 2002, which is for 15 years.

According to their site, Waste Connections started paying dividends at the end of 2010. They seemed to have always paid a lower yield dividend with a 7 year median yield of 0.8% on the stock's closing price, compared to Progressive Waste which has a 2.38% median yield on the stock's closing price.

The dividend growth on Waste Connection for the past 5 years was at 14.3% per year. The 5 year dividend growth for Progressive Waste was 5.7% before the decrease to merge with Waste Connection. However, I do not like stocks that have yields below 1% because it takes so long to get a really good yield on your original cost of your stock.

For the past 5 and 10 years with dividends included, Progressive Waste total return is at 22.62% and 9.05% per year. The total return for the past 5 and 10 years for Waste Connection is at 19.44% and 6.54% per year. For the past 5 and 10 years the capital gains for Progressive Waste was at 20.54% and 6.35% per year.

For the past 5 and 10 years the capital gains for Waste Connection was 18.85% and 6.22% per year. So, the total return and the capital gains were slightly higher for Progressive Waste than for Waste Connection. Going forward you can expect the company to probably behave as Waste Connections did.

After the merger in 2016, debt ratios seem better. The Liquidity Ratio for 2016 is 1.20. Prior under Progressive Waste the 5 year median Liquidity Ratio was 1.00 and was just 0.92 in 2015. After the merger in 2016 the Debt Ratio for 2016 is 2.02. Under Progressive Waste the 5 year median was 1.58 and the one for 2015 was 1.53.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio for Progressive Waste were 19.54, 23.66 and 27.77. The 10 year values were 19.31, 52.21 and 28.11. The historical values are 22.26, 27.79 and 33.32. The current P/E Ratio is 42.11 based on a stock price of $130.80 and 2017 EPS estimate of $3.11 CDN$. I have no figures for Waste Connection, but in any case a P/E Ratio of 42.11 is high. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $55.09 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.29, 1.48 and 1.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.37 based on a stock price of $130.80 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. I do not have values for Waste Connection, but on an absolute basis a P/GP Ratio of 2.37 is very high.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of $2.01. The current P/B Ratio is 3.01 based on BVPS of $43.43 CDN$ and a stock price of $130.80 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is some 50% higher than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. I do not have values for Waste Connection, but on an absolute basis a P.B Ratio of 3.01 is high.

I get a P/S Ratio of 1.44 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 3.77 US$ based on Revenue of $4518M US$, Revenue per Share of $25.74 US$ and a stock price of $96.92 US$. The current P/S Ratio is some 161% higher than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. You will get similar results in CDN$. I do not have values for Waste Connection, but on an absolute basis a P/B Ratio of 3.77 is high.

There does not seem to be many analysts following this stock. There are 2 analysts that I can find and they both give the stock a Buy Recommendations with a consensus recommendation of a Buy. The 12 months consensus stock price is $96.50 US$. This implies a total return of 0.31% with a capital loss of 0.43% and dividends of 0.74%. You have to wonder the why of the Buy recommendations. The answer could be that the stock has recently had great upward momentum.

Zacks Equity Research showing on NASDAQ shows that they rank this stock as a Buy and feel that they have further room for growth of 15.8% per year over the long term. Charlotte Bryant on Chaffey Breeze says that Royal Bank lifted their 12 month stock price of $125.00 CDN$ and give the stock an Outperform (Buy) Rating. There are no 2017 comments on this stock, but in the past analysts on Stock Chase thought this was a good stock in a good business.

Waste Connections is an integrated solid waste services company that provides waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services in mostly exclusive and secondary markets in the U.S. and Canada. Its web site is here Waste Connections Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Goeasy Ltd (TSX-GSY, OTC-EHMEF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be IGM Financial Inc. (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF)... learn more on Wednesday, June 7, 2017 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks June 2017... learn more on Tuesday, June 6, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, June 5, 2017

No Blog Today

This is not how I expected to spend my day. I had some chest pains in the morning and was in the emergency department all day long. It was not my heart and they do not know what caused my chest pains. I just got home and it is 7 pm so no blog today.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, June 2, 2017

Goeasy Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Payloan Co. The company is doing fine. I just do not care to invest in such companies. The stock price could currently be considered to be relatively expensive. See my spreadsheet on Goeasy Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Goeasy Ltd (TSX-GSY, OTC-EHMEF). In April of 2016 Investment Reporter said to seek stocks with growing dividends from The Investment Reporter Key stock buys. This is one stock that was named.

I can see the argument that if this sort of company is not allowed people would go to loan sharks and be worse off. The argument is probably valid. However, that does not mean I should invest in such a company. There are lots to invest in without investing in Goeasy.

If you want to know why I object to invest in this company see this article on CBC. They are like payday loans and the loans are just below the legal limited of 60%. Did you know the legal limit for loans was 60%? And that legal limit does not include the loan-protection insurance payment.

Dividend yield is moderate with low to moderate increases. The current dividend yield is 2.33% with 5 year median of 2.25% and a historical median of 2.33%. The 5 and 10 year growth in dividends is at 5.7% and 8% per year. The last increase was in 2017 and was for a whopping 44%. The reason for the low growth over the past 5 years is that there was no dividend increases between 2010 and 2014 inclusive.

The company is growing. Since the number of shares is growing, you need to look at per share values for growth. The revenue per share growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 10.4% and 8.3% per year. The EPS growth is at 22.5% and 10% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The growth for cash flow per share is at 11.3% and 8.3% per year.

The Return on Equity has been above 10% each year for the past 5 years but only 7 out of the past 10 years. The 5 year median ROE is 12.5% with 15.8% ROE for 2016.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.85, 11.28 and 13.70. The 10 year values are 10.14, 13.01 and 16.66. The historical values are 10.71, 14.50 and 18.28. The current P/E Ratio is 11.00 based on a stock price of $30.91 and 2017 EPS estimate of $2.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $31.08. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.64, 0.85 and 1.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.99 based on a stock price of $30.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.37. The current P/B Ratio is 2.02 based on BVPS of $15.28 and a stock price of $30.91. The current ratio is some 48% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The current dividend yield is 2.33%. This is based on dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $30.91. The historical dividend yield is 2.33. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable with a price around the median. (Note that the dividends have just increased by a huge 44% and this would greatly affect this test.

The 10 year P/S Ratio is 0.81. The current P/S Ratio is 1.05 a value some 30% higher. The current ratio is based on 2017 Revenue of $393M, Revenue per Share of $29.49 and a stock price of $30.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. There are more Buy recommendations, so the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $43.50. This implies a total return of 43.06% with 40.73% from capital gains and 2.33% from dividends. This is based on a current price of $30.91.

An article posted on SmallCap Power says that Goeasy is doing well and is being unfairly painted by the Home Capital Group brush. An article on DARC News takes a look at yields and Technicals for this stock. Daniel Jordon on Sports Perspectives talks about Raymond James Financial increasing this company's target price from $36.00 to $41.00. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. They think it is growing well.

Goeasy Ltd. is the leading full service provider of goods and alternative financial services. Today, Goeasy Ltd. serves its customers through two key operating divisions, easyhome Leasing and easyfinancial. Its web site is here Goeasy Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Husky Energy Inc. (TSX-HSE, OTC- HUSKF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Waste Connections Inc. (TSX-WCN, NYSE-WCN)... learn more on Monday, June 5, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.