Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Russel Metals Inc.
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is certainly a good company, but it is in a rather cyclical business. I have no intention of selling my stock in this company. I like the dividend yield tests the best which said the stock was relatively expensive. However, a number of good tests say that it is reasonable, like the P/S Ratio test and P/GP Ratio test. I would go for a Hold then on this stock.
I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time. However, I should keep a watch on this stock as it has had some troubles in the past.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have made a total return of 7.69% per year to the end of 2025 on this stock. There is 3.13% from capital gains and 4.56% from dividends. It is just under what I want in a dividend growth stock where I would like to see a total return of dividends and capital gains of 8% per year.
However, this company has generally produced better results if you look at the Total Return over the years. I probably paid too much for the share. I am more careful about stock price now that I used to be. Also, this stock tends to be cyclical. The problem basically is my first purchase of this stock was at a peak in 2007. Later purchases were at relatively better prices.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,012.41 you would have bought 63 shares at $16.07 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $982.17 in dividends. The stock would be worth $5,759.40. Your total return would have been $3,741.57. This would be a total return of 17.21% per year with 10.55% from capital gain and 6.66% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.07 | $1,012.41 | 63 | 10 | $982.17 | $2,759.40 | $3,741.57 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.64%. The 5 year median dividend yield is also moderate at 4.26%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.39% and 5.01%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 2.38% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 2.38%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 27% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is high at 57% with 5 year coverage good at 35%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 28% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 77% with 5 year coverage good at 34%. There are two values for FCF for 2025. One is $210M and there other is $125M. I am using the $125M.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 56.81% | 34.94% |
| CFPS | 27.75% | 21.35% |
| FCF | 76.66% | 34.28% |
Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.12 and currently at 0.11. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 3.06 and 3.06 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.45 and 2.45 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 1.69 and 0.69 and currently at 1.69 and 0.69.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Intang/GW | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Liquidity | 3.06 | 3.06 |
| Liq. + CF | 3.24 | 3.39 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.45 | 2.45 |
| Leverage | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.69 | 0.69 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 2.38% | 19.53% | 14.02% | 5.51% |
| 2015 | 10 | 1.18% | 17.21% | 10.55% | 6.66% |
| 2010 | 15 | 3.64% | 9.38% | 4.42% | 4.96% |
| 2005 | 20 | -2.51% | 8.73% | 3.54% | 5.19% |
| 2000 | 25 | -0.70% | 26.27% | 11.47% | 14.80% |
| 1995 | 30 | 0.00% | 15.07% | 8.59% | 6.48% |
| 1990 | 35 | 4.64% | 9.50% | 5.76% | 3.74% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.68, 8.56 and 10.45. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.92, 13.41 and 14.91. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.45, 9.93 and 10.81. The current ratio is 12.19 based on a stock price of $47.28 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $3.88. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $50.17. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 0.95 and 1.07. The current ratio is 0.94 based on a stock price of $47.28. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.43. The current ratio is 1.64 based on a Book Value of $1,588.9M, Book Value per Share of $28.86 and a stock price of $47.28. The current ratio is 15% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $30.84. This implies a ratio of 1.53 with a stock price of $47.28 and a Book Value of $1,698M. This ratio is 8% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.80. The current ratio is 9.01 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $5.25, Cash Flow of $289M and a stock price of $47.28. The current ratio is 55% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.01%. The current dividend yield is 3.64% based on dividends of $1.72 and a stock price of $47.28. The current dividend yield is 27% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.52. The current ratio is 0.47 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $5,485M, Revenue per Share of $99.62 and a stock price of $47.28. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The dividend yield testing is saying that the stock price is relatively expensive, so I am going with that. However, the P/S Ratio says it is reasonable, as do a number of the other test. The P/GP Ratio test is a good one and that says that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (3). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $54.57 with a high of $60.00 and low of $49.00. The consensus stock price of $54.57 implies a total return of 19.06% with 15.42% from capital gains and 3.64% from dividends based on a current stock price of $47.28.
Analysts at Stock Chase like this company. One says it is quiet and well run. Another says it is expanding into the US and is not much affected by tariffs. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says that Canada’s infrastructure plan in 2026 is a strong tailwind for this company. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool reviews this stock. She says a valuable dividend stock like Russel Metals combines strong yields, sustainable payouts, robust financials, and growth prospects. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2025 results.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They say it has a fair value of $54.57. They have no warnings out on this stock.
Russel Metals Inc is a Canada-based metal distribution company. The company conducts business through three metals distribution segments: Metals Service Centers; Energy Field Stores; and Steel Distributors. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Metals Service Centers segment and geographically majority of revenue comes from Canada. Its web site is here Russel Metals Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) ... learn more on Saturday, March 7, 2026. Maybe.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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