Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is not a steady dividend payer, so if you want steady dividends, this stock is not for you. This company also seems to be a short term, not a long term investment. You would probably make money on it, but you will have to keep an eye on it at all times. I have bought such companies, but you have to realize the sort of investment you are making. With a number of tests, the current stock price is showing as reasonable but above the median. I would be very careful if you are looking to buy. With the stock price increases already this year, you got to wonder about how far it will still go up.
I do not own this stock of Ovintiv Inc (TSX-OVV, NYSE-OVV), but I used to. I had held this stock previously as Alberta Energy Company from April 2000 until August 2002 and made some 18% total returns per year. I also held this stock as EnCana Corp from February 2006 to November 2009 and made a 9.54% per year total return. I sold this stock in 2009 because I only had 100 shares and the stock was going to split into two companies. I would have ended up with small investment in two companies.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed expense increased in 2025 faster than revenue grew. Main problem item is an impairment charge. Note this stock’s financials are in US$, estimates are in US$ and Dividends are paid in US$.
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the second quarter in 2026 and expected growth over this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth US$ | 32.44% | 5.78% | 9.54% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 1282.86% | 69.10% | 68.39% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 120.37% | 17.12% | -25.93% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 92.72% | 14.02% | 21.96% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 219.83% | 26.18% | 0.00% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 172.91% | 22.24% | 76.22% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth US$ | 101.45% | 7.25% | 13.00% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | 1482.86% | 31.81% | 68.39% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 124.05% | 8.40% | -1.58% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 117.25% | 8.07% | 36.86% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | -14.29% | -1.53% | 0.58% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | 62.28% | 4.96% | 99.77% | <-this year |
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,019.35 you would have bought 29 shares at $35.15 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $258.83 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,559.91. Your total return would have been $1,818.74. This would be a total return of 6.27% per year with 4.35% from capital gain and 1.92% from dividends. This is in CDN$.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35.15 | $1,019.35 | 29 | 10 | $258.83 | $1,559.91 | $1,818.74 |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth currently flat. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.74%. The 5 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.59% and 2.33%. The 10 year median dividend yield is low at 1.82%. the last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 20%. Dividends have gone up 26% per year over the past 5 years. This is after the cuts made in 2013 and 20.16. Dividends have varied in the past. They have gone up and down and remained flat. Dividends are paid in US$.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 25% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 24% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 8% with 5 year coverage at 7%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 19% with 5 year coverage at 16%. The FCF for 2025 varies from $1,600M to $1,638M. I am using the $1,600M value. Dividends are paid in US$.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 25.10% | 13.69% |
| AEPS | 24.79% | 17.13% |
| CFPS | 8.12% | 6.86% |
| FCF | 19.25% | 16.14% |
< Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.44 and currently at 0.19. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is very low at 0.54 and 1.01 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are good at 1.74 and currently at 3.10. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.22 and 2.48 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 1.82 and 0.82 and currently at 1.68 and 0.68. This is in US$.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.44 | 0.19 |
| Intang/GW | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| Liquidity | 0.54 | 1.01 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.74 | 3.10 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.22 | 2.48 |
| Leverage | 1.82 | 1.68 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.82 | 0.68 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2025 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 28.05% | 28.68% | 24.08% | 4.61% |
| 2015 | 10 | -1.63% | 6.27% | 4.35% | 1.92% |
| 2010 | 15 | -5.73% | -4.77% | -6.42% | 1.65% |
| 2005 | 20 | 3.06% | -2.32% | -4.51% | 2.19% |
| 2000 | 25 | 6.38% | 2.42% | -0.62% | 3.04% |
| 1995 | 30 | 5.29% | 8.13% | 3.50% | 4.63% |
| 1992 | 33 | 5.22% | 8.78% | 4.11% | 4.67% |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2025 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 26.18% | 26.70% | 22.24% | 4.47% |
| 2015 | 10 | -1.53% | 6.98% | 4.96% | 2.02% |
| 2010 | 15 | -7.71% | -6.81% | -8.38% | 1.56% |
| 2005 | 20 | 2.22% | -3.03% | -5.38% | 2.35% |
| 2001 | 24 | 6.83% | 5.10% | 0.50% | 4.60% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.14, 5.41 and 7.25. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 4.35, 6.90 and 8.68. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.64, 8.24 and 10.00. The current ratio is 21.52 based on a stock price of $97.75 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $4.54 (3.18 US$). The current ratio is way above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Note that the stock price in CDN$ has gone up some 81% this year. This testing is in CDN$.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS). The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.13, 7.09 and 9.05. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.14, 8.34 and 10.56. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.94, 11.23 and 16.52. The current ratio is 8.47 based on a stock price of $69.06 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $8.15. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. Note that the stock price in US$ has gone up some 76% this year. This testing is in US$.
I get a Graham Price of $124.53. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.45, 0.63 and 0.83. The current ratio is 0.78 based on a stock price of $97.75. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.20. The current ratio is 1.66 based on a Book Value of $11,499M, Book Value per Share of $41.57 and a stock price of $69.06. The current ratio is 38% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $42.77. This implies a book value of $11,830M, a ratio of 1.61 with a stock price of $69.06. In this case the ratio is 34% above the 10 year median ratio of 1.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.81. The current ratio is 3.82 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $18.07. The current ratio is 36% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.33%. The current dividend yield is 1.74% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $69.06. The current dividend yield is 25% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.82%. The current dividend yield is 1.74% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $69.06. The current dividend yield is 4.5% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.10. The current P/S Ratio is 1.90 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $10,066M, Revenue per Share of $36.39 and a stock price of $69.06. The current ratio is 72% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be still reasonable. The 10 year dividend yield test says that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. Problem with this test is the variability of the dividends and recent dividends are flat but with some big increases recently. The P/S Ratio test is saying that the stock price is relatively expensive. Stock price testing is showing that the stock price is either reasonable but above the median or expensive.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (16), Buy (6) and Hold (5). The Consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $111.67 ($78.29 US$) with a high of $131.22 ($92.00 US$) and a low of $78.45 ($55.00 US$). The consensus stock price of $111.67 implies a total return of 15.99% with 14.24% from capital gains and 1.75% from dividends based on a current stock price of $97.75. This is in CDN$.
Analyst on Stock Chase currently like this stock. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says to buy because it is cheap. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says to buy because it is currently one of the most undervalued companies in the Canadian energy sector. The company put out a press release via Energy Now about their fourth quarter of 2025. The company put out a Press Release about their second quarter of 2026.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance looks at this company and thinks it is worth watching. Guru Focus via Yahoo Finance reviews this company and talks about its ability to pay its dividend. Simply Wall Street has two warnings on this stock of large one-off items impacting financial results; and unstable dividend track record. Note that this company has AEPS to account for large one-off items impacting financial results. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.
Ovintiv Inc. is an independent energy producer, which explores and churns out oil and natural gas from diverse assets located in the U.S. and Canada. Its web site is here Ovintiv Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was CCL Industries Inc (TSX-CCL.B, OTC-CCDBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Dollarama Inc (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF) ... learn more on Monday, October 19, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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