Monday, September 25, 2017

Trican Well Service Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Services Stock. The stock price is probably reasonable, but there is probably a higher risk in this stock which possible future rewards may not cover. Unfortunately there will probably not be much recover in oil and gas prices. So companies will have to figure out how to make money in the current market conditions. See my spreadsheet on Trican Well Service Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Trican Well Service Ltd (TSX-TCW, OTC-TOLWF). I was following Canyon Services Group Inc. and Trican Well Services Ltd. had a plan of arrangement with Canyon Shareholders. This review goes from Canyon Services (to 2016) to Trican Well Services (to current time). The current company is 56% from Trican Well Services and 44% is from Canyon Group Services. Since this new company of Trican you must follow from somewhere and because I was already following Canyon, I decided to follow the new bigger company from Canyon.

Neither company is currently paying dividends. Canyon stopped theirs this year and Trican has not paid any dividend since 2004. Hopefully dividends will be restarted otherwise I will consider dropping this stock from my list completely. A lot of companies are currently having difficulties, especially those connected with the oil and gas industry such as this company.

The combined company has good debt ratios. The current Liquidity Ratio is 1.80 and the current debt ratio is 3.87. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.33 and 0.33 respectively. Good debt ratios can help see a company through bad times.

Looking at the stock price via Price/Earnings per Share is not helpful. There are too many years of earning losses. Trican is also expected to have an earnings loss for 2017 so there is no current P/E Ratio. However, analysts do expect that the company will have earnings in 2018 and 2019. On the other hand these estimates are far off. The further in the future the estimates are the more unreliable they are.

I get a current Graham Price of $4.45. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.52, 0.94 and 1.31. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.98 based on a stock price of $4.35. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.59. The current P/B Ratio is 1.33 a value some 16% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on a book value of $1,130M, BVPS of $3.26 and a stock price of $4.35. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.82. The current P/S Ratio is 1.65 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $911M, Revenue per Share of $2.63 and a stock price of $4.35. The current P/S Ratio is some 9% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (10) and Hold (3) recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $5.35. This implies a total return of 22.99% with 22.99% from capital gains and 0% from dividends.

An article on Small Cap Power approves of this company and says that it is a good time to buy. The staff at Financial News Week gives some tech analysis of this stock. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Some do not like the sector this company is in.

Trican Well Service Ltd. is a Canada-based oilfield services company. The Company provides an array of specialized products, equipment, services and technology for use in the drilling, completion, stimulation and reworking of oil and gas wells in Canada, the United States, Kazakhstan, Russia and Norway, as well as limited operations in Saudi Arabia and Colombia. Its web site is here Trican Well Service Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Wajax Corp. (TSX-WJX, OTC- WJXFF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Great-West Lifeco Inc. (TSX-GWO, OTC-GWLIF)... learn more on Wednesday, September 27, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2017 - Edward Yardeni... learn more on Tuesday, September 26, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, September 22, 2017

Wajax Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend paying industrial. Since they are quite inconsistent in dividend payments this stock maybe more suitable for people growing their portfolio or people not dependent on dividend income. This stock is coming out as relatively cheap on a number of good stock price testing of Dividend Yield, P/S Ratio and P/B Ratio. See my spreadsheet on Wajax Corp.

I do not own this stock of Wajax Corp. (TSX-WJX, OTC-WJXFF). TD Waterhouse put out a report on good dividend paying stocks to own in November 2011. This was a stock they named. I had not heard of it before, so I decided to investigate it.

This company used to be an income trust and it changed to a corporation in 2011. In 2008 and 2009 it decreased its dividends some 58% to get its Dividend Payout Ratio down. In 2011 and 2012 they increased their dividends. However, EPS fell off in 2013 and they have been decreasing their dividends ever since.

In 2014 they were paying monthly dividends. In 2015 they changed the dividends to quarterly. Dividends since 2014 are down by almost 70%. So far in 2017 dividends are flat. They have made not announcement of any dividend changes and the third dividend of 2017 will be the same as for the first two quarters. Note that this company paid dividends from 1986 to 1991 and then paid no more dividends until 2004.

Even though dividends have decreased, the dividend yield is still in the good range so still quite high. The current dividend yield is 5.27%. The Dividend Payout Ratio is high at 185% in 2016 and 5 year coverage of 114%. However, analysts expect the DPR to be lower in 2017 at around 71%. The DPR for CFPS (less WC) is 36% in 2016 and has 5 year coverage of 43%. (It is best when this DPR is at 40% or lower.)

This stock has some very good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.07 for 2016 with a 5 year median of 2.07. The Debt Ratio is 1.71 for 2016 with a 5 year median of 1.58. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are ok at 2.40 and 1.40 for 2016with 5 year median of 2.57 and 1.57. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2016 is 0.27 and this is also good. Good debt ratios mean that a company has a good chance of surviving bad times.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.71, 13.57 and 16.23. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 7.14, 9.43 and 11.71. The historical ratios are 8.74, 11.01 and 13.52. The current P/E Ratio is 13.45 based on a stock price $18.96 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.41. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price maybe on the high side or relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $20.93. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.91, 1.14 and 1.34. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.91 based on a stock price of $18.96. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price maybe relatively reasonable and below the median. It is very close to relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.41. The current P/B Ratio is 1.37 based on Book Value of $274M, BVPS of $13.81 and a stock price of $18.96. The current P/B Ratio is some 43% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The current dividend yield is 5.27% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $18.96. The historical median dividend yield is 4.23%. The current dividend yield is some 25% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.40. The current P/S Ratio is 0.30 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $1,252M, Revenue per Share of $63.01 and a stock price of $18.96. The current P/S Ratio is some 25% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

What I see is that there are only 3 analysts following this stock. The recommendations give are Buy (1) and Hold (2). The 12 month stock price target is $25.00. This implies a total return of 37.13% with 31.86% from capital gain and 5.27% from dividends.

There is a new release on Cision with Wajax Corp saying they are redeeming all it their outstanding 6.125% Senior Notes. Becky Mayes on Simply Wall Street thinks that it is a good time to buy this stock. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Few follow it, but comments are mixed.

Wajax is a leading Canadian distributor and service support provider of mobile equipment, industrial components and power systems. Reflecting a diversified exposure to the Canadian economy, Wajax has three distinct business divisions. The organization's customer base covers core sectors of the Canadian economy - mining, oil and gas, forestry, construction, manufacturing, industrial processing, transportation and utilities. Its web site is here Wajax Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Telus Corp. (TSX-T, NYSE-TU)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Trican Well Service Ltd (TSX-TCS, OTC-TOLWF)... learn more on Monday, September 25, 2017 before 8 am.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Telus Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth Telecom. Stock price seems relatively reasonable to expensive. It is the Dividend Yield test that gives the best showing for the current stock price. See my spreadsheet on Telus Corp.

I do not own this stock of Telus Corp. (TSX-T, NYSE-TU). I started to follow this stock because of a list of stock John Sartz talked about in 2008. At the Toronto Money Shows in 2009 and 2010 Aaron Dunn from KeyStone Financial Publishing Corp talked about having recommended this stock.

Aaron Dunn says he likes companies with resilient business models, which are profitable and are growing their earnings. He also like companies with strong management teams, health balance sheets and compelling valuations. They look at the P/E and the Price/Cash Flow ratios. Telus Corp (TSX-T) was one of three stocks he recommended in 2009.

Dividend yield is moderate to good. Dividend growth is also moderate to good. The current dividend is good at 4.44% with moderate 5 year median and historical median dividend yields of 3.91% and 3.91% respectively. The 5 year dividend growth is moderate at 10.9% per year and the 10 year dividend growth is good at 22.7% per year.

This company has raised their dividends every year since 2005 some 14 years ago. Before 2005 dividends did not grow much and there was a 57% decline in 2001. Dividend growth is good for the past 10 years because of good growth from 2005 to 2008. The last dividend increase was for 2.6% in 2017, but this is the second increase in 2017. Dividends in 2017 are up by 8.1% from those of 2017.

What I do not like is the very low Liquidity Ratios. For 2016 it was 0.50 with a 5 year median ratio of 0.62. If this ratio is below 1.00 it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends then this ratio is 0.94 for 2016 with a 5 year median of 1.32. If you also add in the current portion of the long term debt the ratio is 1.28 for 2016 with a 5 year median of 1.45.

The problem with very low Liquidity Ratios is that the company can be vulnerable in bad times. Also if you have to add in the current portion of the long term debt to get to any sort of a decent ratio you have to read thoroughly the notes on their debt to ensure that the current portion has or will be handled.

The Debt Ratio is also low but it is over 1.00. The Debt Ratio for 2016 was 1.40 with a 5 year median value of 1.47. I prefer this ratio for safety's sake to be at least at 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 3.49 and 2.49 respectively. The 5 year median values at 2.66 and 1.66 respectively are better.

What is good is the Return on Equity which for 2016 is 15.4% with a 5 year median of 17.1%. This has not been below 10% any time over the past 10 years. The ROE for comprehensive income is similar at 15.2% for 2016 with a 5 year median of 15.2%. This also has not been below 10% over the past 10 years.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.71, 17.33 and 18.95. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 13.82, 15.38 and 16.94. The historical ratios are 14.35, 17.33 and 19.75. The current P/E Ratio is 17.26 based on a stock price of $44.35 and 2017 EPS estimate of $2.57. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $28.57. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.22, 1.36 and 1.49. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.55. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.60. The current P/B Ratio is 3.14 a value some 21% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on Book Value of $8,373M, BVPS of $14.12 and a stock price of $44.35. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a current dividend yield of 4.44% based on a stock price of $44.35 and dividends of $1.97. The historical median dividend yield is 3.91%. The current dividend yield is some 13.6% higher than the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.83. The current P/S Ratio is 1.98 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $13,288M, Revenue per Share of $22.41 and a stock price of $44.35. The current P/S Ratio is some 8% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' ratings I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy recommendation. The current 12 month price consensus is 49.08. This implies a total return of 15.11% with 10.67% from capital gains and 4.44% from dividends based on a current stock price of $44.35.

Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool compares Telus and BCE to see which is the current better buy. He thinks Telus is. Interestingly Jacob Donnelly also of Motley Fool took a recent look at this stock and feels alarmed by its increasing debt. Emily Jackson on the Financial Post talks about PCMag ranking Telus Corp's wireless network the fastest in Canada. A Staff Writer on Rives Journal says that Telus' Williams Percent Range is -34.33 which means it is neither overbought or oversold. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Views of this company are rather mixed. The blogger Dividend Earner recently talked about this stock.

Telus is a national telecommunications company in Canada. Telus provides a wide range of communications products and services including data, Internet protocol (IP), voice, entertainment and video. Its web site is here Telus Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC- ACCFF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will Wajax Corp. (TSX-WJX, OTC- WJXFF)... learn more on Friday, September 22, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2017 - Benjamin Tal... learn more on Thursday, September 21, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, September 18, 2017

Accord Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth financial. This stock currently seems to be cheap but of a high risk. See my spreadsheet on Accord Financial Corp.

I do not own this stock of Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF). Fred Poulin from StockTwits recommended this stock saying it was a small cap that pays dividends. Also the stock has a solid background and would be a good filler stock.

What I have noticed is that this company seemed to have hit a peak in 2010 and has not gone anywhere since. A peak was hit in revenue and in EPS. The other thing is that dividend growth was cut in half after 2011. Prior to 2011 dividend 5 year dividend growth was 9.2% per year. The current 5 year dividend growth is 3.7% per year. Also there was no dividend increase in 2016 and so far no increase in 2017.

The current dividend yield is good and the dividend growth is low. However the yield used to be in the moderate range. The current dividend yield is 4.11%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.90% with a historical median of 2.56%. The dividend growth as was 3.7% and 6.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

For a financial stock the debt ratios are relatively good. For the 2016 financial year the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio was 0.79, the Debt Ratio was 1.96 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios were 2.05 and 1.05. At the end of the second quarter all these ratios declined with Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio at 1.28, the Debt Ratio at 1.65 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios were 2.54 and 1.54.

Note that for the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios lower ratios are better and the Debt Ratio higher is better. The other thing to note is that company says that for the second quarter they are still in compliance with their loan covenants.

Revenue and EPS have had meager or no growth over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in Revenue per Share is 1.05% and 1.17% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is down by 1.45% and up and 0.93% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Things have not improved in the second quarter of 2017 as Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow are all decreasing.

The 5 year running average is better for both Revenue per Share and EPS. Here Revenue per Share is up by 2.4% and 2.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is up by 5.4% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. When there is volatility, then comparing one 5 year period to the pervious one or to a 5 year period 10 years ago, can give you a better idea of if there is growth.

The cash flow has been growing well despite no growth in revenue or earnings. The Cash Flow per Share is up by 29% and 16.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Interestingly, when I look at the 5 year running average, these values are lower at 10.3% and 14.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.57, 10.06 and 11.56. The corresponding 10 year values are 8.77, 10.63 and 11.95. The historical values are 8.55, 10.25 and 11.56. These are fairly consistent. The current P/E Ratio is 14.34 based on a stock price of $8.75 and 12 month EPS to end of second quarter. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $11.11. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.64, 0.74 and 0.85. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.79 based on a stock price of $8.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.27. The current P/B Ratio is 0.97 based on a stock price of $8.75, Book Value of $74.7M and BVPS of $8.99. The current P/B Ratio is some 23.5% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The historical dividend yield is 2.56%. The current dividend yield is 4.11% based on dividends of $0.36 and a stock price of $8.75. The current dividend yield is some 60% above the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.44. The current P/S Ratio is 2.61 based on 12 month to the end of the second quarter Revenue of $27.9M, Revenue per Share of 3.35 and a stock price of $8.75. The current P/S Ratio is some 7% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. The P/S Ratio testing is important because it is ultimately Revenue growth that pushes EPS and Cash Flow.

There does not seem to be any analysts following this stock. However, I got a CFRA report and they have a recommendation of Underperform. They also say that the stock is of High Risk. They give no estimates.

Austin Wood on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns this company. He says the main holders of stocks are the general public, Private Equity and Private companies. Toi Williams on True Blue Tribune talks about the CEO purchasing more shares. There are interesting but old comments on this company at Stock Chase.

Accord Financial Corp. is a provider of asset-based financial services to businesses, such as asset-based lending (ABL), including factoring, lease financing, working capital financing, credit protection and receivables management, and supply chain financing for importers. Its web site is here Accord Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Just Energy Group Inc. (TSX-JE, NYSE-JE)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Telus Corp. (TSX-T, NYSE-TU)... learn more on Wednesday, September 20, 2017around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2017 – Jaime Purvis... learn more on Tuesday, September 19, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, September 15, 2017

Just Energy Group Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Energy Utility. It would appear that the stock price could be cheap, but why anyone would buy a stock with a negative book value is beyond me. This stock is of high risk, it is quite vulnerable to any bad economic situation and one where I do not see why a high reward might be given for such a risk. See my spreadsheet on Just Energy Group Inc.

I do not own this stock of Just Energy Group Inc. (TSX-JE, NYSE-JE). I started to follow this is July 2010. It was one of the high yield income trusts that people were talking about, so I decided to check it out.

The thing to notice about this stock is its negative book value. The Debt Ratio is 0.89. This means that the assets cannot cover the liabilities. Why anyone would buy a company with negative book value beyond speculation I would not understand. It means that if the company broke up today, your shares are worthless. It is not that they do not have assets that are worth a lot of money. The problem is that their debt is very high. Shareholders in bankruptcies get paid last if there is anything left. This is a very high vulnerability.

The Liquidity Ratio is not great either. The one for the financial year ending March 2017 is 1.15. This is very low. I like this ratio to be at least 1.50. Even adding in cash flow after dividends it is just 1.26. This ratio has a 5 year median of just 0.92 and with cash flow after dividends a ratio the 5 year median is 0.99. If the ratio is at or below 1.00 means that the current assets cannot cover current liabilities. This gives this company another very high vulnerability.

On the other hand according to Reuters some 33% of this stock is held my institutions. It is in the TSX Index and this could be a reason for it being held by institutions. In the article below by Sebastian Weber on The Ledger Gazette, Sebastian seems to think that institutions expect that this stock is poised for long-term growth.

It has not done that well for investors. The total return over the past 5 years is 1.25% with 6.92% from dividends and a capital loss of 5.66%. The total return over the past 10 years is a loss 1.42% with 7.62% from dividends and a capital loss of 9.05%.

The other thing I noticed is the decline of the dividend payments. This company used to be an income trust. All income trusts paid higher dividends than they could afford just looking at earnings. Instead dividend payments were measured against the Funds from Operations (FFO). On that basis the company was paying out some 80% of the FFO where acceptable rates were considered to be between 75% and 90%.

When the company became a corporation in 2011 it needed to reconsider the payout ratios and compare them to the earnings. What the company did was to leave the dividends flat until 2013 and then decreased them in 2014 and 2015 and made the dividends payments quarterly instead of monthly in 2015. Dividends are down by 16.6% and 6.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The other thing to point out is the extreme volatility of the earnings. Earnings for the last 10 years are $1.41, loss of $10.03, $1.79, $3.73, loss of $0.93, $3.68, $1.12, loss of $4.01, $0.43, and $2.42. The change in earnings over this time is down 811.35%, up 117.85%, up 108.38%, down 125%, up 496%, down 70%, down 458%, up 111%, and up 463%. Earnings for the financial year of March 2018 are expected to be down by 59%. This gives the company vulnerability. You expect some volatility in earnings, but this seems extreme.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 2.66, 3.11 and 3.56. The 10 year corresponding values are 2.91, 3.40 and 3.89. The historical ratios are 7.32, 8.73 and 10.15. The P/E Ratios are very low because of past earnings losses. The current P/E Ratio is 7.09 based on a stock price of $7.09 and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.00. On an absolute basis a P/E Ratio of 7.09 says that the stock is relatively cheap. This P/E Ratio is lower than the historical median low and so is relatively cheap.

You need a positive book value to calculate a Graham Price. This company has not had a positive book value since 2008. I would also need a positive book value to do some stock price testing using the Price/Book Value Ratio.

The historical median dividend yield is 8.17%. The median dividend yield since 2011 is 9.01%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 8.42%. All these yields are higher than the current yield of 7.05% by 14%, by 22% and by 16%. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.50 and a stock price of $7.09. So this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is probably relatively reasonable but above the median.

The other thing is that a dividend yield of 7.05% is a very high yield. If a yield on a company is over 5%, this generally points to a high risk company. The yields are high for a reason. The market thinks that the company could get into difficulties and so wants a high yield. Always be very careful when investing in a company with yields over 5%.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.49. The current P/S Ratio is 0.27 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $3,881M, Revenue per Share of $26.43 and a stock price of $7.09. The current P/S Ratio is some 45% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $8.72. This implies a total return of 30.04% with 22.99% from capital gains and 7.05% from dividends.

Sebastian Weber on The Ledger Gazette seems to be to have analyzed two loser companies and declared this company a winner. Sebastian Eder on Simply Wall Street points to the current good Dividend Payout Ratio. See my comments on this below. See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. On analysts says that it is a risky business model so he would stay away. I do tend to agree with this.

I get Dividend Payout Ratio for the financial year of March 2017 of 20.66%. This is because of the very high earnings in the last fiscal year. However, to me that looks like a blimp as the EPS for the 12 month period ending in the first quarter of 2018 (June 2017) is just $0.47. The EPS for the financial year ending of March 2016 was $0.44. The DPR for the financial year of March 2018 is expected to be 50%. However, the 5 year coverage will be 260%. At least Sebastian Eder thinks you should say clear of this stock because of the volatility of its dividends.

Just Energy's business involves the sale of natural gas and/or electricity to residential and commercial customers under long-term fixed-price and price-protected contracts. Just Energy derives its margin or gross profit from the difference between the fixed price at which it is able to sell the commodities to its customers and the fixed price at which it purchases the associated volumes from its suppliers. The company also offers "green" products through its Just Green program. Through its subsidiary Terra Grain Fuels, the Fund produces and sells wheat-based ethanol. Its web site is here Just Energy Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Smart REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC- ACCFF)... learn more on Monday, September 18, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Smart REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. The current price certainly seems good at the present time. I would like to see a better Liquidity Ratio. See my spreadsheet on Smart REIT.

I do not own this stock of Smart REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF). Once you have 5 or 6 stocks, you might want to consider a REIT for diversification. REITs are an easy way to investment in real estate. I am therefore following a few REIT stocks and in 2009 I decided to look at a few on the Dividend Achiever's List. Unfortunately, this stock is no longer on the Dividend Achiever's List.

What I noticed when updating the spreadsheet is that this company has a very high distribution yield at 5.65% but it has a very low distribution growth. They did not increase the distribution at all between 2009 and 2013. Since then the distributions have increase at around 3% per year. However, the growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 1.39% and 1.21%. According to the bank of Canada inflation over the same period was at 1.33% and 1.46%. With very low inflation this is not very good. You expect a REIT to increase just a bit above inflation or at inflation.

The Liquidity is very low coming in at just 0.23. If this is below 1.00 it means that the current assets cannot cover current liabilities. With this company adding in cash flow after distributions just increases it to 0.31. If you include only distributions paid in cash it is 0.43.

You only get it to a decent rate by adding back in current portion of long term debt. This means that every year you have to check to make sure that they are handling outstanding long term debt. For 2016 annual statement they cover this question. For any year, the company should answer this question in the annual statement in the notes on the Financial Statements.

This REIT's debt ratio is good at 2.14 for the financial year of 2016. Also the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good for this company at 1.87 and 0.87 for the financial year of 2016.

The Return on Equity is on the low said at 8.3% for the 2016 financial year and with a 5 year median value of 8.3%. The Comprehensive Income ROE is the same at 8.3% for 2016 with a 5 year of 8.3%.

The outstanding shares have increased a lot of the years. Outstanding shares have increased by 4.6% and 5.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This means that to judge growth you need to look at per share values. It can make a difference. For example the growth in revenue over the past 5 and 10 years is at 5.9% and 8.9% per year. However, the real growth is the growth in revenue per share which is at 1.2% and 3.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.75, 13.56 and 14.54. The 10 year corresponding values are 12.79, 15.43 and 16.99. The historical values are 12.17, 13.83 and 15.29. The current P/E Ratio is 11.93 based on12 month EPS to the end of the second quarter of $2.52 and a stock price of $30.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median to relatively cheap.

This is a REIT so often people look at Price/Funds from Operations Ratio or Price/Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratio. I will use the P/FFO Ratio. The 10 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 12.98, 14.69 and 16.19. The current P/FFO Ratio is 13.62 based on a stock price of $30.11 and 2017 estimate FFO of $2.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $35.51. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 0.91 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.85 based on a stock price of $30.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.27. The current P/B Ratio is 1.19 a value some 6.8% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on a Book Value of $3,914M, Book Value per Share of $23.36 and a stock price of $30.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median distribution yield of 5.93%. The current distribution yield is 5.65% based on distributions of $1.70 and a stock price of $30.11. The current distribution yield is some 4.8% below the historical median distribution yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.08. The current P/S Ratio is 6.26 a values some 3% higher. The current P/S Ratio is based on 2017 estimate Revenue of $742M, Revenue per Share of $4.81 and a stock price of $30.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (5) and Hold (3). Most are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $35.03. This implies a total return of 21.99% with 16.34% from capital gains and 5.65% from distribution on a current price of $30.11.

Staff at Benton Bulletin give some technical analysis. They say that the RSI is reading the stock as neither overbought nor oversold. David Jagielski at Motley Fool says that this is a quality stock trading at market lows. Rex Bailey on Weekly Herald say that the Scotiabank recently dropped their target price on this company. (Note some US sites still have symbol at CWT.U or CWT.UN)

Smart REIT is the largest owner of large-format unenclosed retail properties in Canada. Its web site is here Smart REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Just Energy Group Inc. (TSX-JE, NYSE-JE)... learn more on Friday, September 15, 2017 before 8 am. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2017 - Gordon Pape... learn more on Thursday, September 14, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, September 11, 2017

High Liner Foods

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. It has had some problems lately so the price is current cheap by dividend yield and P/S Ratio testing. It would appear that they can overcome their problems so if you like this stock, now may be a good time to buy. See my spreadsheet on High Liner Foods.

I do not own this stock of High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF). This is a stock liked by the Investment Reporter and is considered to be of average risk. The MPL Communication's site is here. Ryan Irvine of Keystone also likes this company.

What surprised me about this stock when I was updating my spreadsheet is the volatility in the stock price. The price zoomed up from 2012 and reached heights in 2015 and again in 2016 from which it is falling from. The high in 2015 was $26.48 and in 2016 it was 27.22. However, this is not the first time this stock has zoomed up because in July 1986 it reached a high of $70.00. All these values are after 2014 split is taken into account. It fell from 1987 to 1993.

The stock did not do much between 1993 and 2008/2009 when it started to earn more and have higher revenue. It reached highs in 2015 then fell some 54% and again reached a high in 2016 and fell 54%. The stock at $14.14 is now down some 48% below the 2016 highs. The year 2016 was not good because of falling revenues, but earnings were up and cash flow was flat.

The other thing to note is the very high level of insider selling. The Net Insider Buying is at 0.28%. Normal would be around 0.1% or 0.2%. This is in contrast to last year when Net Insider Buying was at 0.04%. However, most of the selling was by the CEO who left the company and a director who left. If you take out this selling the NIS is at a normal 0.01%.

This company started to pay dividends in 2004, some 13 years ago. Since 2008 they have been raising their dividends every year. The dividend yields are moderate (2 to 3 range) and the dividend growth is good (over 15% per year). The current dividend is 3.96%, but the 5, 10 and historical yields are lower at 1.85%, 2.49% and 2.16% respectively. Dividends have grown at 21.7% and 17.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

They can afford their dividends. The 2016 Dividend Payout Ratio is 36.5% with 5 year coverage of 39%. The DPR for 2016 for CFPS is 15.4% and with 5 year coverage at 13.1%. This company gives out an Adjusted EPS was well as EPS. I generally do not agree with individual companies doing their own thing for EPS, but the DPR for and Adjust EPS is at 29.6% with 5 year coverage of 25.6%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.92, 18.32 and 22.39. The corresponding 10 year values are 10.39, 14.29 and 18.77. The historical values are 8.41, 10.88 and 13.32. It would seem that the rises in prices are due to rising P/E ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 12.95 based on a stock price of $14.14 CDN$ and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.09 CDN$ ($0.90 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is probably reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $15.01 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 1.01 and 1.28. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.94 based on a stock price of $14.14 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share of 1.73. The current P/B Ratio is 1.54 based on Book Value of $305M CDN$, $9.17 CDN$ and a stock price of $14.14 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is some 10.8% lower than the 10 years ratio. . This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The current dividend yield is 3.96% based on dividends of $0.56 CDN$ and a stock price of $14.14 CDN$. The historical dividend yield is 2.16% a values some 83% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.44. The current P/S Ratio is 0.30 based on a stock price of $14.14 CDN$, 2017 Revenue estimate of $1564M CDN$ ($1289M US$) and Revenue per Share of $46.92 CDN$. The current ratio is some 32% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock recommendation is $15.80 US$ or $19.17 CDN$. This implies a total return of 39.52% with 3.96% from dividend and 35.56% from capital gains.

This press release on Cision talk about Henry Demone again becoming the company's CEO. Demone was chairman and CEO but then a couple of years ago Keith Decker being appointed CEO. Now effective August 2017 Henry Demone is again Chairman and CEO.

During the first half of 2017 this company had to recall products because they contained milk products that were not on the label. James Risdon writes about this in the Chronicle Herald of Halifax. There is an article on this stock by Patrick Pritchard on Seeking Alpha. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They mostly like the company.

High Liner Foods is the leading North American processor and marketer of value-added frozen seafood. Their retail branded products are sold throughout the United States, Canada and Mexico and are available in most grocery and club stores. They also sell their branded products to restaurants and institutions and they are the major supplier of private label value-added frozen seafood products to North American food retailers and food service distributors. Its web site is here High Liner Foods.

The last stock I wrote about was about was ATCO Ltd. (TSX-ACO.X, OTC- ACLLF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Smart REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF)... learn more on Wednesday, September 13, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2017... learn more on Tuesday, September 12, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, September 8, 2017

ATCO Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price is reasonable to cheap using the good measures of P/B Ratio and Dividend yield. This stock has a long history of yearly dividend increases. My spreadsheet goes back to 1993 and they have increased dividends every year since then. See my spreadsheet on ATCO Ltd.

I do not own this stock of ATCO Ltd. (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF). I started to look at this stock in 2009 because it was a dividend paying stock that was on everyone’s list. At that time this stock was on the Dividend Achievers list, the Dividend Aristocrats list and also was on Mike Higgs’ list. ATCO (TSX-ACO-X) owns 88% Canadian Utilities (TSX-CU) so you would not buy both these stocks.

The dividends are moderate which I consider in the 2% and 3% range. The current dividend is 2.92% and this stock has a 5 year median of 1.88% (which is low) but an historical median that is moderate at 2.10%. The dividend growth is also moderate with growth of 14.9% and 10.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. I think moderate growth is in the 8% to 15% range.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good with the DPR for EPS in 2016 at 38.5% and the 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for CFPS for 2016 is low at 6.6% with 5 year coverage of 5.4%.

What I do not like is that the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is over 1.00. For this stock the ratio is 1.62. This means that the outstanding long term debt is higher than the stock’s market cap. Unfortunately this is common with utility stocks.

The other debt ratios are fine with a Liquidity Ratio of 1.40 (which is on the low side) but if you include cash flow after dividends it is 3.08 for 2016. The Debt Ratio for 2016 is 1.57 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.74 and 1.74.

The Return on Equity is fine with the one for 2016 at 9.6% with a 5 year median of 13.4%. The ROE has been at or above 10% 3 times over the past 5 years and 8 times over the past 10 years. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2016 is low at 8.6% with a 5 year median of 11.7%. When the Comprehensive Income ROE being lower, it means that the ROE may not be quite as good as it appears.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.55, 13.62 and 15.16. The corresponding 10 year values are 10.09, 11.57 and 13.10. The historical values are 9.29, 10.67 and 12.34. The current P/E Ratio is 14.76. This is based on a stock price of $44.86 and 2017 EPS estimate of $3.04. This is a utility stock, so P/E Ratio should be on the low side. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The P/E Ratio is going up because price is going up but EPS is not. The 5 and 10 year growth in EPS is 1% and 5.6% per year. The stock price has gone up by 8.2% and 5.9% per year over the same periods. The EPS is expected to grow by 2.7% this year. So far the stock price has grown by 0.5% this year.

I get a Graham Price of $46.26. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.91 and 1.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.97 based on a stock price of $44.86. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.53. The current P/B Ratio is 1.43 based on Book Value of $3,587M, BVPS of $31.29 and a stock price of $44.86. The current P/B Ratio is 6.4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The historical median dividend yield is 2.10%. The current dividend yield is 2.92% based on dividends of $1.31 and a stock price of $44.86. The current dividend yield is some 39% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 1.00. The current P/S Ratio is 1.17 based on a stock price of $44.86, Revenue estimate for 2017 of 44,407M and Revenue per Share of $38.44. The current P/S Ratio is some 16.8% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), Hold (3) and Underperform (1). Most are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $49.00. This implies a total return of 12.13% with 9.23% from capital gains and 2.92% from dividends based on a current stock price of $44.86.

Lester Williams on Sky News suggests that this stock may be oversold. Haris Anwar of Motley Fool recommends this stock for a TFSA. Reid Southwick of Calgary Herald talk about what is happening in Alberta towns with shutting of coal electric plants. ATCO is one of the companies that must shut these plants in Alberta.

ATCO LTD. is a management holding company with operating subsidiaries in electric and natural gas utility operations, independent power operations, production, storage, processing, gathering, delivery of natural gas, technical facilities management for the industrial, defense and transportation sectors, the manufacture, sale and leasing of industrial shelters and industrial noise abatement technologies. ATCO has just over 50% stake in Canadian Utilities Ltd. The company utilizes a dual share structure of voting and non-voting shares. Its web site is here ATCO Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Exchange Income Corp. (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF)... learn more on Monday, September 11, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Exchange Income Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The current stock price is on the high side. Short sellers think that they cannot afford the dividends, but other analysts disagree. See my spreadsheet on Exchange Income Corp .

I do not own this stock of Exchange Income Corp. (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF). One of my blogger readers suggested this stock as one to review. There was an interesting article about this stock in the G&M in May 2013. This article suggested that the company had a hefty yield with an acquisition tailwind. This article is available here.

One thing I noticed in updating my spreadsheet is that there is a lot of insider buying. Net Insider Buying is at 0.54% of market cap. This is high as you would expect it to be no more than 0.01% or 0.02%. This is always a positive sign that insider feel confident about their company. Buying is mostly by directors.

The dividend yield is very good with a current yield of 6.45%, a 5 year median dividend yield of 7.18% and a 10 year median of 7.98%. A problem is the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2016 is high at 93%. The 5 year coverage is worse at 152%. The DPR for EPS has been above 100% since 2008. It is expected to be around 107% for this year.

The DPR for CFPS is also high. It is better for 2016 at 39%, but the 5 year coverage is 46%. The DPR for CFPS has been above 40% since 2007. The DPR for CFPS is expected to be around 37% in 2017.

Many analysts think that the dividends will not be cut and that DPR will decline over the next few years. The last increase was in 2016 and was for 4.5%. However, overall the dividends have increased between 2015 and 2016 by 10%. It would seem that management feels that they can afford the current dividends.

The Return on Equity is low. The ROE for 2016 is good at 12.7%, but the 5 year median is just 8.6%. It has had ROE at or above 10% only 3 times in last 10 years and once in last 5 years. The Comprehensive Income ROE is a bit lower but not significantly so. The Comprehensive Income ROE for 2016 is 11.2% with a 5 year median of 8.4%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.13, 20.58 and 23.03. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 13.66, 16.59 and 20.89. The historical ratios are 12.52, 15.72 and 18.25. Generally speaking a rising stock price and rising P/E Ratios is not sustainable. The current P/E Ratio is 16.53 based on a current price of $32.56 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.97. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $27.91. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.13 and 1.34. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.17 based on a stock price of $32.56. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.60. The current P/B Ratio is 1.85 based on a stock price of $32.56 and Book Value of $543.28 and BVPS of $17.58. The current P/B Ratio is some 16% above the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The dividend yield test is not the best for companies that used to be income trusts. That is because as income trusts the dividend yield reached heights that they would never reach again. If you look at this median dividend yield since 2011 then it is 7.30%. The current dividend is 6.45% based on a stock price of $32.56 and dividends of $2.10. The current dividend yield is some 11.7% lower than this dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.77. The current P/S Ratio is 1.01 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $995M, Revenue per Share of $32.19 and a stock price of $32.56. The current ratio is some 32% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (7) and Hold (2). Most are Buy recommendations and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $42.73. This implies a total return of 37.68% with 31.23% from capital gains and 6.45% from dividends.

Kenneth Searles gives some technical information on Melville Review for this stock. He is basically saying that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Martin Cash in July of 2017 on the Winnipeg Free Press talks about short selling on this stock because they doubt the company's ability to continue its generous dividend. They have a point as they are paying over 100% of EPS on dividends. This is not sustainable. However, Terence Corcoran on Financial Post says other analysts dispute short-seller Marc Cohodes' analysis. See what analysis are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They mostly like it and feel the short sellers are wrong.

Exchange Income Corporation was created to invest in profitable, well-established companies with strong cash flows operating in niche markets in Canada and/or the United States and to distribute stable monthly cash dividends to its shareholders. The Company currently owns subsidiaries in two niche business segments, aviation and specialty manufacturing. Its web site is here Exchange Income Corp .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ATCO Ltd. (TSX-ACO.X, OTC- ACLLF)... learn more on Friday, September 8, 2017 before 8:30 am. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy, September 2017... learn more on Thursday, September 07, 2017around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Price is probably reasonable. It is only cheap using the dividend yield method. See my spreadsheet on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

I do not own this stock of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF), but I once did. In 2013, I sold the stock in my Pension account as it had the lowest dividend yield and I had to raise money in this account because of yearly withdrawals.

In updating the spreadsheet what is noticeable is that all the growth figures are green. For example EPS has increase by 20.6% and 21.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is up by 21.6% and 18.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Book Value has grown by 21.2% and 18.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. All the figures are in US$ as this company reports in US$.

There is not much difference in the outstanding shares so you can look at both say Revenue and Revenue per Share. Shares have increased by 1.14% per year over the past 5 years and decreased by 0.65% per year over the past 10 years. This is a bit of difference as Revenue has grown by 10.51% and 12.11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown by 9.27% and 12.85% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. All these are still good growth figures.

One thing to be cautious about is that the Liquidity Ratios tend to be low. The ratio for 2017 (annual report date is April 2017) is 0.98 with a 5 year median of 1.08. That means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends this ratio is 1.52 with a 5 year mean of 1.72. So they rely on cash flow to cover current liabilities. This could be looked at as a vulnerability.

Dividends are really low this stock. The current dividend yield is 0.60%. However, the dividend increases are good with the past 5 and 10 years of growth at 29.6% and 24.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2017 and it was for 16.1%.

This would be a good stock for people building a portfolio in a trading account. Dividends are low so your taxes would be low. At retirement you could sell it for a stock that pays a higher dividend yield and double or triple your income.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.93, 20.44 and 23.86. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 12.26, 15.95 and 19.64. The historical ones are 12.79, 18.12 and 21.50. The current P/E Ratio is 17.16 based on a stock price of $59.74 and 2017 EPS estimate of $3.48 CDN$ ($2.81 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $33.35. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.13, 1.47 and 1.81 based on CDN$. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.79 based on a stock price of $59.74 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.88. The current P/B Ratio is 4.21 based on Book Value of $8,069M, BVPS of $$14.19 and a stock price of $59.74 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is some 46% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The historical median dividend yield is 0.58% CDN$. The current dividend yield is 0.60% based on dividends of $0.36 CDN$ and a stock price of $59.74 CDN$. The current dividend yield is 3.9% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio Close is 0.33 in US$. The current P/S Ratio is 0.58 in US$ based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $47,225M US$, Revenue per Share of $67.64 US$ and a stock price of $48.19 US$. The current P/S Ratio is some 78% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (11) and Hold (1). Most are Buy recommendations and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $59.04US$ OR $73.15 CDN$. This implies a total return of 23.05% with 22.45% from capital gains and 0.60% from dividends.

Chris MacDonald of Motley Fool likes this stock and the recent dividend raise. Felix Olson on Simple Wall Street talks about this company's good ROE. The Herald Staff give a technical view of this stock on The Hiram Herald. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They generally like this stock.

Couche-Tard is the largest convenience store operator in North America with over 4,600 company-operated stores. In Europe, with over 1,600 company-operated sites, Couche-Tard is a leader in c-store and road transportation fuel in Scandinavian and the Baltic States, with a growing presence in Poland. Its web site is here Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX-CHE.UN, OTC-CGIFF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exchange Income Corp. (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF)... learn more on Wednesday, September 06, 2017 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks September 2017... learn more on Tuesday, September 5, 2017 around 5 pm

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.