Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I have always like utility stocks. They give you a mix of good dividends and growth. This seems to me like an interesting stock. They are in to getting electricity to Data Centers. It would certainly seem that Data Centers are in our future. However, this stock would seem to very much be on the expensive side at the present time.
I do not own this stock of Capital Power Corp (TSX-CPX, OTC-CPRHF). Capital power Corp is in John Heinzl's yield Hog model portfolio. In Money Sense annual list of the 100 best dividend stocks for 2021, this stock was rated an A.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that revenue was lower and energy and fuel costs were higher as a percentage of revenue. Also, last year the company had a gain on divestitures. This accounts for the lower EPS for 2025 compared to 2024. I also notice the EPS can vary a lot from year to year.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,012.89 you would have bought 27 shares at $17.74 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $1,166.71 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,337.35. Your total return would have been $4,504.06. This would be a total return of 19.57% per year with 12.66% from capital gain and 6.91% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17.77 | $1,012.89 | 57 | 10 | $1,166.71 | $3,337.35 | $4,504.06 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.37%. The 5 year dividend yield is moderate at 4.80%. The 10 and historical dividend yields are good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.89% and 5.51%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 6.3% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2026 and it was for 2%.
Some of the Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine and some are too high. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 301% with 5 year coverage high at 89%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is far too high at 302% with 5 year coverage still far too high at 111%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is far too high at 483% with 5 year coverage at 374%. FCF for 2025 varies from $47M to $70M and I am using the $70M figure.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 300.76% | 88.77% |
| AEPS | 302.39% | 111.35% |
| AFFO | 37.38% | 35.92% |
| CFPS | 33.64% | 28.36% |
| FCF | 482.86% | 374.47% |
I would like to see the Debt Ratios improved and the company has lots of debt, but utilities tend to have lots of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is a bit high at 0.70 and currently at 0.61. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2025 which is good at 0.57 and currently at 0.55 because this is a more important ratio for a Utility. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is too low at 0.94 and 0.80 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still low at 1.22 and currently at 1.22. This ratio is better if at 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is low at 1.46 and 1.43 currently. This ratio is better at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are too high at 3.51 and 2.41 and currently at 3.66 and 2.55. These ratios are better if they are below 3.00 and 2.00. However, utilities tend to have lots of debt.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| Lg Term /A | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| Intang/GW | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Liquidity | 0.94 | 0.80 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.46 | 1.43 |
| Leverage | 3.51 | 3.66 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.41 | 2.55 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 6.27% | 16.36% | 10.85% | 5.51% |
| 2015 | 10 | 6.50% | 19.57% | 12.66% | 6.91% |
| 2010 | 15 | 5.07% | 11.06% | 6.23% | 4.83% |
| 2005 | 16 | 4.75% | 11.53% | 6.50% | 5.03% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 44.69, 53.13 and 61.57. The corresponding 10 yar ratios are 24.11, 30.80 and 37.75. The corresponding historical ratios are 22.06, 27.68 and 30.57. The current ratio is 32.29 based on a stock price of $64.58 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $2.00. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. These are quite high P/E Ratios for a utility.
I also have Adjusted Earning per Share Ratios. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.31, 12.26 and 14.21. The corresponding 10 yar ratios are 16.92, 21.40 and 24.08. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.72, 19.63 and 22.02. The current ratio is 32.29 based on a stock price of $64.58 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $2.00. This ratio is above high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $35.04. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.00, 1.19 and 1.34. The current ratio is 1.84 based on a stock price of $64.58. This ratio is above high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.68. The current ratio is 2.37 based on a Book Value of $4,286M, Book Value per Share of $27.29 and a stock price of $64.58. The current ratio is 41% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $30.46. This analyst calculated the Book Value differently than I do and, in this case, the 10 year Median P/B Ratio is 1.60. The P/B Ratio for a Book Value per Share of $30.46 is 2.12 with a stock price of $64.58 and a Book Value $4,785M. This 2.12 ratio is 63% above the 10 year median ratio of 1.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.73. The current ratio is 7.14 based on a stock price of $64.58, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $9.05 and Cash Flow of $1,421M. The current ratio of 7.14 is 25% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.51%. The current dividend yield is 4.37% based on dividends of $2.778 and a stock price of $64.58. The current dividend yield is 21% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.89%. The current dividend yield is 4.37% based on dividends of $2.778 and a stock price of $64.58. The current dividend yield is 26% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.81. The current ratio is 2.85 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $3,444M, Revenue per Share of $22.70 and a stock price of $64.58. The current ratio is 57% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The 10 year median dividend yield test says the stock price is relatively expensive an it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All my tests are saying that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7), Buy (2) and Hold (2). The consensus is a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $80.00 with a high of $88.00 and a low of $72.00. This implies a total return of 28.24% with 23.88% from capital gains and 4.37% from dividends based on a current stock price of $64.58.
Most analysts like this stock on Stock Chase however a few say Do Not Buy. They say the company depends on the open market rather than contracts and it is a play on AI. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says the company just locked in a 10 year plus deal for Meta’s Alberta data center. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool says to buy this company for a mix of income and growth. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2025. The company put out a Press Release about their second quarter of 2026.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says that this company could be undervalued. Another view is that the P/E Ratio is too high compared to others in the Renewable Energy Industry. Simply Wall Street has 4 warnings on this stock of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 4.21% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flows; profit margins (2.7%) are lower than last year (13.9%); and large one-off items impacting financial results.
Capital Power Corp is a North American power producer whose principal activities are developing, acquiring, and operating power plants. These are located throughout Western and Central Canada and the U.S. The company generates the vast majority of its revenue from sale of electricity and natural gas. Its web site is here Capital Power Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF) ... learn more on Monday, August 31, 2026 around 5 pm.
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