Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Both the Canadian Railway stocks seem to be good long term buys. The time to buy dividend growth stocks is when they are relatively reasonable. The new money sense dividend list gives this company a C rating. It is always best to buy stocks with several purchases over a few years and in different months. This stock could be cheap as the dividend yield tests are pointing to that.
I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009. In my RRSP account, I bought this stock in 2011 and sold in 2013. Reason for sale was to raise money in my RRSP account for future withdrawals. I was looking for something to sell with a low dividend yield.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock in my trading for just over 20 years. I have made a return of 13.18% per year with 10.53% from capital gains and 2.65% from dividends. I noticed that there has been a lot of insiders buying over the past year. Most of the officers and directors I follow have bought shares. The most recent buying is at $135.00, but over the year buying was from $130.00 to $145.00.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,005.55 you would have bought 26 shares at $77.35 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $323.70 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,764.75. Your total return would have been $2,088.45. This would be a total return of 8.19% per year with 5.79% from capital gain and 2.40% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77.35 | $1,005.55 | 13 | 10 | $323.70 | $1,764.75 | $2,088.45 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 2.79%. The 5 year median dividend yield is moderate at 2.02%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.88% and 1.68%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.1%. The last dividend increase was in 3.1%. Dividend increases have been declining over the past 5 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 47% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 47% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 66% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The FCF varies a bit from $3,336M to $3,391M. I am using the $3,336M value. Some sites no longer give a value.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 46.90% | 41.35% |
| AEPS | 46.53% | 43.80% |
| CFPS | 33.08% | 30.43% |
| FCF | 66.19% | 56.86% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.24 and currently at 0.25. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is too low at 0.67 and 0.67 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.99 and currently at 1.99. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.58 and 1.58 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are fine at 1.71 and 0.71 and currently at 1.71 and 0.71.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Intang/GW | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Liquidity | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.99 | 1.99 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.58 | 1.58 |
| Leverage | 2.71 | 2.71 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.71 | 1.71 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 5 | 9.07% | 1.63% | -0.61% | 2.23% |
| 1995 | 10 | 11.00% | 8.19% | 5.79% | 2.40% |
| 1990 | 15 | 13.38% | 12.52% | 9.85% | 2.67% |
| 1985 | 20 | 14.19% | 11.49% | 9.22% | 2.28% |
| 1980 | 25 | 14.64% | 15.09% | 12.35% | 2.74% |
| 1996 | 28 | 14.69% | 15.07% | 12.47% | 2.60% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.26, 20.97 and 23.26. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.92, 18.96 and 21.06. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.39, 14.67 and 17.53. The current ratio is 17.71 based on a stock price of $140.14 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $7.92. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.80, 21.46 and 23.19. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.02, 20.34 and 22.54. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.25, 18.69 and 20.81. The current ratio is 17.47 based on a stock price of $140.14 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $8.02. This ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $79.66. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.75, 2.04 and 2.28. The current ratio is 1.76 based on a stock price of $140.14. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.43. The current P/B Ratio is 3.98 based on a Book Value of $21,568M, Book Value per Share of $35.17 and a stock price of $140.14. The current ratio is 10% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $34.85. This implies a ratio of 4.02 with a Book Value of $21,374M with a stock price of $140.14. This ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.81. The current P/CF Ratio is 12.16 based on a stock price of $140.14, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $11.52 and Cash Flow of $7,065M. This ratio is 12% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.68%. The current dividend yield is 2.61% based on a stock price of $140.14 and dividends of $3.66. The current dividend yield is 55% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.88%. The current dividend yield is 2.61% based on a stock price of $140.14 and dividends of $3.66. The current dividend yield is 39% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.81. The current P/S Ratio is 4.87 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $17,662M, Revenue per Share of $28.80 and a stock price of $140.14. The current ratio is 16% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is testing as reasonable, but might be cheap. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, the P/S Ratio testing says it is relatively reasonable. The rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is either cheap or reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (10), Buy (5), Hold (14) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $152.50 with a high of $190.00 and a low of $132.00. The stock price consensus of $152.50 implies a total return of 11.43% with 8.82% from capital gains and 2.61% from dividends based on a current stock price of $140.14.
For the analysts’ comments on Stock Chase there are 2 Buys and one Do Not Buy. The Do not Buy says it is a great business but always expensive. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says that Blue Chip stocks look boring until the day the market stops playing nice. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool asks that since the stock is down 10% is it oversold? He ends saying that much of the downside risk is likely already reflected in CN’s share price. The company put out a Press Release about it fourth quarter of 2025 results.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stocks and looks at risks and rewards. Simply Wall Street has one warning of has a high level of debt
Canadian National's railway spans Canada from coast to coast and extends through Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway.
The last stock I wrote about was about was AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 11, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Sense Dividend Stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, February 10, 2026 around 5 pm.
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