Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a blue chip stocks and has mainly done well over the years. What I do not like about it currently is its very low dividend yield. I do not buy stocks with a dividend yield below 1% as it takes too long to get a decent yield on your original purchase price. I do not buy stock for just capital gain. I think that dividend growth stocks are a better investment. Currently this stock seems to be reasonable, but above the median.
I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP). It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999 so I am following it. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and chose CN as my railway stock.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed if I had kept the shares I had in this company, my total return to date would be approximately 11.12% with 9.84% from capital gains and 1.28% from dividends over a 38 year period and 3 purchases in 1987, 1988 and 2006.
They did fine last year with increases to Revenue, AEPS, Net Income, Cash Flow and Dividends. The stock price went down slightly. They increased the dividend 15% after no increases in dividends in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,025.03 you would have bought 26 shares at $35.35 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $186.88 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,930.45. Your total return would have been $3,117.33. This would be a total return of 12.18% per year with 11.08% from capital gain and 1.10% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35.35 | $1,025.03 | 29 | 10 | $186.88 | $2,930.45 | $3,117.33 |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 0.81% based on a stock price of $113.26 and Dividends of $5.21. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also low at 0.81%, 0.89% and 1.21%. The dividend increases are current low at 4.9% per year over the past 5 years. This is because dividends were flat between 2022 and 2024 inclusive.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 19% with 5 year coverage at 19%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 19% with 5 year coverage at 19%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF) is good at 37% with 5 year coverage at 37%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF) is good at 35% with 5 year coverage at 30%. Both WSJ and the company give out FCF values. No one else did for 2025 so far.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 19.38% | 18.95% |
| AEPS | 18.96% | 19.39% |
| CFPS | 13.97% | 16.50% |
| FCF 1 | 36.70% | 36.70% |
| FCF 2 | 34.87% | 29.41% |
Debt Ratios are fine but Liquidity Ratios should be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.22 and currently at 0.20. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is too low at 0.49 and 0.49 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still too low at 1.25 and currently better at 1.47. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.19 and 2.19 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 1.88 and 0.86 and currently at 1.88 and 0.86.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| Intang/GW | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Liquidity | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.25 | 1.47 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.19 | 2.19 |
| Leverage | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.86 | 0.86 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 37 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 4.90% | 3.57% | 2.73% | 0.84% |
| 2015 | 10 | 12.06% | 12.18% | 11.08% | 1.10% |
| 2010 | 15 | 10.08% | 16.10% | 14.68% | 1.41% |
| 2005 | 20 | 10.60% | 13.68% | 12.41% | 1.28% |
| 2000 | 25 | 10.54% | 14.86% | 13.36% | 1.50% |
| 1995 | 30 | 11.22% | 14.65% | 13.14% | 1.51% |
| 1990 | 35 | 6.64% | 13.32% | 11.98% | 1.34% |
| 1985 | 37 | 7.15% | 12.47% | 11.13% | 1.34% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 22.53, 24.53, 26.52. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.06, 20.82 and 24.17. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.25, 16.78 and 18.04. The current ratio is 22.46 based on a stock price of $113.26 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $5.04. This ratio is between the median and high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.21, 24.98 and 26.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.87, 21.48 and 25.08. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.98, 19.59 and 23.27. The current ratio is 21.74 based on a stock price of $113.26 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $5.21. This ratio is between the median and high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $77.33. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.53, 1.66 and 1.80. The current ratio is 1.46 based on a stock price of $113.26. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.64. The current ratio is 2.22 based on a Book Value of $45,787M, Book Value per Share of $51.01 and a stock price of $113.26. The current ratio is 39% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $54.05. This implies a P/B Ratio is 2.10 with a stock price of $113.26 and Book Value of $48,515M. This ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 17.34. The current ratio is 15.18 based on a stock $113.26, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $7.46 and Cash Flow of $6,699M. The current ratio is 12% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.20%. The current dividend yield is 0.81% based on dividends of $0.912 and a stock price of $113.26. The current dividend yield is 33% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.89%. The current dividend yield is 0.83% based on dividends of $0.912 and a stock price of $109.82. The current dividend yield is 10% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but below the median.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.35. The current P/S Ratio is 6.40 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $15,875M, Revenue per Share of $17.69 and a stock price of $113.26. The current ratio is 1% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is testing as still reasonable. The 10 year dividend yield test says the stock price is still reasonable but above the median. The P/S Ratio test says the same thing. The rest of the testing varies from cheap to reasonable and above the median.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (17), Buy (8) and Hold (5). The consensus is a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $121.25 with a high of $130.00 and low of 101.00. The consensus stock price of $121.25 implies a total return of 7.86% with 7.05% from capital gains and 0.81% from dividends based on a current stock price of $113.26. A
nalysts on Stock Chase give this stock a weak buy and some are worried about CUSMA. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says if you have $5,000 to buy stock, this stock is a good one to start with. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this stock will be a long term winner. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2025.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and thinks it might be undervalued. Simply Wall Street has one warning out of has a high level of debt.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City is a Class I railroad operating on track that spans across most of Canada and into parts of the Midwestern and Northeastern United States and he Upper Midwest down through Texas, the Gulf of Mexico, and into Mexico. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more on Friday, February 13, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about EQB Bank and In the Money.... learn more on Thursday, February 12, 2026 around 5 pm.
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