Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock is down from it recent high and is lower than the highs made in 2025. You have to wonder if it is not going to be rather flat for the next while as it was from 2020 to 2023. (Generally called a consolidation.) A lot of measures are saying it is expensive. I would go along with that and think that now is not the time to buy. What you pay for a stock really affects your long term returns. However, it is always best to buy a stock you like over time and in different months.
I do not own this stock of TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF). I looked at this stock in 2008 after I found it on a list of Strongest Dividend Growth stocks. I am interested in such stocks.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock has done quite well for its shareholders. Good growth over the past 5 and 10 years. Good Total Return since over the last 23 years ago. See the Total Growth chart in a paragraph below and the growth in the chart below. In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2026 and expected growth over this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth | 98.50% | 14.70% | 4.02% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 81.12% | 12.61% | 28.73% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 48.62% | 8.25% | 28.55% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 86.13% | 13.23% | 3.05% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 54.41% | 9.08% | 14.29% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 105.40% | 15.48% | -7.33% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | 139.50% | 9.13% | 11.69% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | 192.58% | 11.33% | 15.02% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 894.84% | 25.83% | 47.90% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 205.55% | 11.82% | 3.05% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | 162.50% | 10.13% | 25.48% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | 629.67% | 21.99% | 25.46% | <-this year |
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,002.12 you would have bought 140 shares at $7.16 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $808.08 in dividends. The stock would be worth $7,312.20. Your total return would have been $8,120.28. This would be a total return of 25.36% per year with 21.99% from capital gain and 3.37% from dividends. This calculation takes into consideration stock splits, which means that the original cost would be lowered by these splits.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.16 | $1,002.12 | 140 | 10 | $808.08 | $7,312.20 | $8,120.28 |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.91%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.28%, 2.47% and 2.74%. The dividend increases for the last 5 years have been moderate (8% to 14% per year) at 9.1% per year. The dividend increase was in 2026 and it was for 9.09%. However, because of past dividend increases the dividends paid in 2026 is 14.29% higher than those paid in 2025.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is high at 56% with 5 year coverage good at 47%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 39% with 5 year coverage at 44%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 25% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 42% with 5 year coverage at 44%. FCF for 2025 varies from $551M to $644M.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 56.38% | 46.67% |
| AEPS | 39.44% | 44.20% |
| CFPS | 24.50% | 27.26% |
| FCF | 42.42% | 43.78% |
Debt Ratios are fine but Liquidity could improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.11 and currently at 0.11. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is low at 1.00 and 1.00 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends the DPR is not much better with the ratios at 1.01 and currently at 1.01. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is fine at 1.11 and 1.10 currently as it is a financial stock.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Intang/GW | 0.35 | 0.53 |
| Liquidity | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.11 | 1.10 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 9.08% | 17.59% | 15.48% | 2.10% |
| 2015 | 10 | 10.13% | 25.36% | 21.99% | 3.37% |
| 2010 | 15 | 6.92% | 16.57% | 13.92% | 2.65% |
| 2005 | 20 | 8.01% | 10.98% | 8.95% | 2.03% |
| 2002 | 23 | 11.96% | 21.16% | 14.93% | 6.23% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.28, 22.17, and 23.71. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.06, 21.82 and 23.71. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.71, 21.87 and 24.25. The current ratio is 22.50 based on a stock price of $50.25 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $2.23. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.97, 19.96 and 21.95. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.59, 19.14 and 20.98. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.08, 18.56 and 19.98. The current ratio is 20.51 based on a stock price of $50.25 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $2.45. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $31.24. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.06, 1.25 and 1.42. The current ratio is 1.61 based on a stock price of $50.25. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.83. The current ratio is 2.84 based on a Book Value of $4,883M, Book Value per Share of $17.71 and a stock price of $50.25. The current ratio is 55% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.67. The current ratio is 17.74 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $2.83, Cash Flow of $781M and a stock price of $50.25. The current ratio is 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.74%. The current dividend yield is 1.91% based on dividends of $0.96 and a stock price of $50.25. The current dividend yield is 30% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.47%. The current dividend yield is 1.91% based on dividends of $0.96 and a stock price of $50.25. The current dividend yield is 22% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.37. The current P/S Ratio is 7.22. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. The 10 year dividend yield test is saying that the stock price is relatively expensive. The P/S Ratio is not confirming that and it is saying it is relatively reasonable. However, the rest of the testing is either saying that the stock price is reasonable but above the median or expensive.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $65.53 with a high of $71 and low of $59.00. The 12 month stock price consensus implies a total return of 32.32% with 30.41% from capital gains and 1.91% from dividends based on a current stock price of $50.25.
Mostly analysts on Stock Chase think this company is a buy. However, one analyst was worried about how AI might affect the company. Iain Butler on Motley Fool thinks that this is a good time to buy this stock. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool also thinks that now is a good time to buy this stock. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2025. The company put out a Press Release about their first quarter of 2026.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance thinks that this stock is overvalued and is worth around $46.27 currently. And there is another Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance that says that this stock is undervalued and is worth around $65.03 currently. Simply Wall Street has no warning out on this stock.
TMX Group Ltd is a company that operates several markets to provide investment opportunities for its clients. The company has four operating segments: Global Solutions, Insights & Analytics, Capital Formation, Derivatives Trading & Clearing, and Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing. The company geographically operates in Canada, USA, UK, Germany, and Other Countries, with maximum revenue from Canada. Its web site is here TMX Group Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Suncor Energy Inc (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Dorel Industries Inc (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF) ... learn more on Monday, July 20, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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