Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a resource stocks and I tend not to buy such stocks as they are cyclical. On the dividend testing it is testing as reasonable. However, if you look at its chart, it is at an all-time high. It is probably never a good idea to buy a stock, especially a cyclical stock at a all-time high point.
I do not own this stock of Cenovus Energy Inc (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE). This is another stock that was talked about at the 2010 Money Show in Toronto. There were those who liked oil companies and they mentioned both Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU) and Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE). This company was split off from EnCana (TSX-ECA) in 2009. My spreadsheet reflects this split.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the stock price really climbed this year. It ended in December 2025 at $23.22 and is currently $46.67, a 100.99% increase. Since 2008, financials have been in CDN$ and Dividends are currently paid in CDN$. Growth has been good over the past 5 years. See chart below.
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the end of the second quarter in 2026 and expected growth over this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth | 275.72% | 30.31% | 27.79% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | FFO Growth | 469.72% | 41.62% | 115.51% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 265.20% | 29.57% | 69.47% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 2913.92% | 97.62% | 50.17% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 1148.00% | 65.67% | 10.26% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 199.61% | 24.54% | 100.99% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | 280.40% | 14.29% | 27.79% | <-this year |
| 10 | FFO Growth | 5.23% | 0.51% | 115.51% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 535.92% | 20.32% | 69.47% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 458.21% | 18.76% | 50.17% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | -8.49% | -0.88% | 10.26% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | 32.69% | 2.87% | 126.53% | <-this year |
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,015.00 you would have bought 58 shares at $17.50 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $205.70 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,346.76. Your total return would have been $1,552.46. This would be a total return of 4.54% per year with 2.87% from capital gain and 1.67% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17.50 | $1,015.00 | 58 | 10 | $205.70 | $1,346.76 | $1,552.46 |
The current dividend yield is Low with dividend growth currently moderate. The dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.89%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are low at 1.60% and 1.60%. The 5 year median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.11%. The last dividend increase was moderate (8% to 14% per year ranges) at 10%. Dividends increased by 66% per year over the past 5 year but are down by .9% over the past 10 years. There were dividend cuts in 2015, 2016 and 2020. Dividends are now 0.9% lower than they were in 2014.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 36% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is good at 16% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for 2025 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 35% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 16% with 5 year coverage at 12%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is fine at 42% with 5 year coverage good at 23%. FCF varies in 2025 from $3,408M to $3,964M. I am using the $3,408M figure.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 36.28% | 28.39% |
| AFFO | 16.02% | 13.35% |
| FFO | 35.81% | 22.38% |
| CFPS | 16.82% | 11.66% |
| FCF | 42.17% | 23.13% |
Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.25 and currently at 0.10. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.57 and 1.63 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.00 and 2.11 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are fine at 2.01 and 1.01 and currently at 1.90 and 0.90.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| Intang/GW | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Liquidity | 1.57 | 1.63 |
| Liq. + CF | 2.64 | 3.75 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.00 | 2.11 |
| Leverage | 2.01 | 1.90 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.01 | 0.90 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2025 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 65.67% | 28.48% | 24.54% | 3.94% |
| 2015 | 10 | -0.88% | 4.54% | 2.87% | 1.67% |
| 2010 | 15 | -0.17% | -0.45% | -2.37% | 1.93% |
| 2005 | 20 | 7.94% | 1.89% | -0.47% | 2.36% |
| 2000 | 25 | 10.39% | 5.61% | 2.73% | 2.88% |
| 1995 | 30 | 8.58% | 8.62% | 5.16% | 3.45% |
| 1992 | 33 | 8.21% | 10.71% | 6.76% | 3.95% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.74, 11.71 and 13.69. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.36, 7.07 and 8.77. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.71, 14.33 and 16.52. The current ratio is 8.23 based on a stock price of $46.67 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $5.67. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 3.11, 4.32 and 5.66. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.96, 5.51 and 6.58. The corresponding historical ratios are 5.31, 6.22 and 7.65. The current ratio is 9.41 based on a stock price of $46.67 and AFFO estimate for 2026 of $4.96. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $48.57. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.51, 0.73 and 0.93. The current ratio is 0.96 based on a stock price of $46.67. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.12. The current ratio is 2.52 based on a Book Value of $34,198M, Book Value per Share of $18.49 and a stock price of $46.67. The current ratio is 126% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $20.76. With a stock price of $46.67 this implies a Book Value of $38,396M and a ratio of 2.25. This ratio is 101% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.43. The current ratio is 5.03 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $9.28, Cash Flow of $17,171M and a stock price of $46.67. This ratio is 7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.60%. The current dividend yield is 1.89% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $46.67. The current dividend yield is 18% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.60%. The current dividend yield is 1.89% based on dividends of $0.88 and a stock price of $46.67. The current dividend yield is 18% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.76. The current ratio is 1.36 based on Revenue of $63,506M, Revenue per Share of $34.34 and a stock price of $46.67. The current ratio is 80% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could still be reasonable, but maybe not. The dividend yield tests are saying this but it is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The dividend yield tests are not all that good because dividends have been inconsistent. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is relatively expensive. Most of the testing is saying that except for the P/CF Ratio test that says that the stock price is reasonable.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (8) and Buy (3). The consensus would a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $52.60 with a high of $58.00 and a low of $47.00. The consensus stock price of $52.60 implies a total return of 14.59% with a capital gain of 12.71% and dividends of 1.89% based on a current stock price of $46.67.
Most analysts thinks that Cenovus is a buy on Stock Chase. The one Do Not Buy just likes CNQ better. Robin Brown on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a buy now because it is a top Canadian Energy stock. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool suggests a small purchase now and then see how things go with the Athabasca purchase before investing more. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter for 2025. The company put out a Press Release about their second quarter of 2026.
Zacks via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and its recent ascent. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says that Cenovus Energy is just one of 3 Canadian oil companies to watch. Simply Wall Street has three warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4% per year for the next 3 years; unstable dividend track record; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. (Internet info seems to back up this selling.)
Cenovus Energy Inc is a Canadian integrated energy group. he group's reportable segments are: Oil Sands, Conventional, Offshore, Canadian Refining, U.S Refining, and Corporate and Eliminations. Maximum revenue is generated from its Oil Sands segment. Geographically, the group derives maximum revenue from the U.S., followed by Canada and China. Its web site is here Cenovus Energy Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Quebecor Inc (TSX-QBR.B, OTC-QBCRF) ... learn more on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Why Europe is Burning.... learn more on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
