Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I can see why an analyst does not think this stock is a long term buy. If you look at Total Return chart, some long term returns are below my preferred 8%. You have to be careful about when you buy this stock. It can have long periods of low growth. On the positive side, it does have a long history of dividend payments and increases. The current price is testing a relatively cheap.
I do not own this stock of Medtronic PLC (NYSE-MDT). In 2009 I was looking for a good US stock for my US$ account. I had heard good things about this stock and also it is in Health Care sector which is a weak sector in Canada. This is one of the few US stocks that I follow.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company has been growing better than the stock price over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the stock price has grown some 20% this year and analysts expect further growth in the current year. See the chart below. Note that the financial year end is April 30 each year so I am reviewing the annual report for April 2026.
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. In column 5, I am showing what growth has been over the past 12 months to the end of the first quarter in July 2026 and what is expected to the end of this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth | 20.74% | 3.84% | 3.24% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 24.55% | 4.49% | 3.44% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 33.14% | 5.89% | 8.96% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 17.47% | 3.27% | 9.62% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 22.41% | 4.13% | 1.41% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | -38.15% | -9.16% | 6.61% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | 26.12% | 2.35% | 7.42% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | 26.61% | 2.39% | 8.14% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 35.70% | 3.10% | 25.93% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 40.48% | 3.46% | 28.32% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | 86.84% | 6.45% | -0.81% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | 2.30% | 0.23% | 29.47% | <-this year |
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,076.88.24 you would have bought 14 shares at $76.92 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $331.52 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,344.84. Your total return would have been $1,676.36. This would be a total return of 4.99% per year with 2.25% from capital gain and 2.74% from dividends. This is in US$.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76.92 | $1,076.88 | 14 | 10 | $331.52 | $1,344.84 | $1,676.36 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.34%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate at 3.05% and 2.23%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.23%. The current dividend increases are low (below 8% per year) at 4.13% per year over the past 5 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high, but are expected to be fine in 2027. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 76% with 5 year coverage at 82%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is high at 51% with 5 year coverage at 50%. It is best when the DPR for AEPS is in the 40% range or lower. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is too high at 42% with 5 year coverage at 45%. It is best when the CFPS is 40% or less. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 58% with 5 year coverage at 60%. FCF varies for 2025 from $5,426M to $6,240M. I am using $6,240M value. The DPR for AEPS is expected to be in the 40% ranges in 2027 and the DPR for CFPS is expected to be below 40% in 2027.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 75.53% | 81.77% |
| AEPS | 51.36% | 50.45% |
| CFPS | 41.53% | 45.46% |
| FCF | 58.32% | 59.78% |
Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.25 and currently at 0.23. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.13 and 2.07 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.17 and 2.20 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 1.88 and 0.87 and currently at 1.86 and 0.85.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Intang/GW | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| Liquidity | 2.13 | 2.07 |
| Liq. + CF | 2.44 | 2.55 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.17 | 2.20 |
| Leverage | 1.88 | 1.86 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.87 | 0.85 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 4.13% | -1.37% | -3.89% | 2.52% |
| 2015 | 10 | 6.45% | 4.99% | 2.25% | 2.74% |
| 2010 | 15 | 7.96% | 9.73% | 6.55% | 3.18% |
| 2005 | 20 | 10.44% | 4.62% | 2.59% | 2.02% |
| 2000 | 25 | 11.20% | 3.46% | 1.87% | 1.58% |
| 1995 | 30 | 13.42% | 8.91% | 6.71% | 2.20% |
| 1989 | 36 | 14.29% | 16.16% | 12.25% | 3.91% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 25.16, 29.01 and 32.86. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 26.08, 29.01 and 33.56. The corresponding historical ratios are 23.44, 27.13 and 31.82. The current ratio is 18.24 based on a stock price of $86.32 and EPS estimate for 2027 of $4.73. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.39, 16.82 and 19.05. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.95, 17.79 and 19.71. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.49, 17.03 and 18.88. The current ratio is 14.43 based on a stock price of $86.32 and AEPS estimate for 2027 of $5.98. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $72.66. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.19, 1.35 and 1.54. The current ratio is 1.19 based on a stock price of $86.32. The current ratio is at the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median, but very close to cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.38. The current ratio is 2.20 based on a Book Value of $50,232M, Book Value per Share of $39.24 and a stock price of $86.32. The current ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2027 of $40.36. This implies a ratio of 2.14 with a stock price of $86.32 and Book Value of $51,663M. This ratio is 10% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 17.58. The current ratio is 11.75 based on a stock price of $86.32, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2027 of $7.35 and a Cash Flow of $9,406M. The current ratio is 33% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.23%. The current dividend yield is 3.34% based on dividends of $2.88 and a stock price of $86.32. The current ratio is 171% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.23%. The current dividend yield is 3.34% based on dividends of $2.88 and a stock price of $86.32. The current ratio is 50% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.88. The current ratio is 2.83 based on Revenue estimate for 2027 of $39,061M, Revenue per Share of $30.52 and a stock price of $86.32. The current ratio is 27% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The Dividend Yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap or reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (16), Buy (3), and Hold (9). The consensus is a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $104.83 with a high of $121.00 and low of $85.00. The 12 months stock price consensus implies a total return of 24.78% with 21.44% from capital gains and 3.34% from dividends based on a current stock price of $86.32.
Analysts on Stock Chase like this stock and think it is a buy. One analyst says that it is not a long term buy type stock. Reuben Gregg Brewer on Motley Fool likes this stock for its long history of dividend increases. Matt DiLallo on Motley Fool says that JNJ crushed this stock over the last decade, but thinks that MDT could be a better investment over the next 10 years. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter ending in April 2026. The company put out a Press Release about their first quarter of 2027 ending in July 2026.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and suggests it might be undervalued. Simply Wall Street lists no risks for this stock.
Medtronic, Inc. acquired Ireland-based Covidien plc. The acquisition resulted in the formation of a new holding company incorporated in Ireland - Medtronic plc. The company currently generates revenues from four major segments - namely Cardiovascular Portfolio, Medical Surgical Portfolio, Neuroscience Portfolio and Diabetes. Its web site is here Medtronic PLC.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Pason Systems Inc (TSX-PSI, OTC-PSYTF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Molson Coors Canada (TSX-TPX.B, NYSE-TAP) ... learn more on Friday, October 9, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy October 2026 learn more on Thursday, October 8, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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