Melcor Developments Inc

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Paying Real Estate. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth negative currently. See my spreadsheet on Melcor Developments Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I have little in the way of investments in Western Canada. I still have faith I will make a reasonable return on my investment in this stock. I have not lost hope in it. The Trudeau family has always hated the west, especially Alberta. Maybe with a change in government in Ottawa this attitude will change. I plan to keep the shares I have. I do not have much invested in this stock. The price is relative cheap at present. I might buy more if it goes lower.

I own this stock of Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). This was one of the stocks on Mike Higgs' list of good dividend growth stocks. I looked into it and bought it. I bought this stock first in 2008 and then some more in 2009. It is a little followed real estate company from Western Canada.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for 17 years and I have a total return of 5.23% with 0.92% from capital gains and 4.31% from dividends. I bought stock in 2008 that I over paid for. If you look at the chart, the stock has been cyclical. It has two big peaks in 2007 and 2014 which it has yet to come close to since 2014.

I noticed that two of the Melton family sold shares over the past year. They were the CEO and Chairman, Timothy Charles Melton and an officer, Graeme Melton. I notice that the CFO bought shares in the past year.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,002.15 you would have bought 51 shares at $19.65 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $258.06 in dividends. The stock would be worth $657.90. Your total return would have been $915.96. This would be a total loss of 1.02%% per year with 4.12% from capital loss and 3.10% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$19.65	$1,002.15	51	10	$258.06	$657.90	$915.96

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth negative currently. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.68%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate at 3.68%, 3.69% and 2.96%. The dividends have declined over the past 5 years because of a dividend cut in 2024. Dividends have declined at 2.5% per year. The last dividend change was a dividend cut of 31% and it occurred in 2024.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 15%. The DPR for 2024 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 16%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 24% with 5 year coverage at 28%. There is no agreement on what the FCF is.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	13.55%	15.03%
FFO	14.29%	20.85%
CFPS	14.23%	15.78%
FCF	23.80%	28.34%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is high at 1.56 and currently at 1.63. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2024 which is good at 0.44 and currently at 0.44 because this is a important ratio for a Real Estate company. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 3.96 and 3.96 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.36 and 2.36 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.70 and 0.70 and currently at 1.70 and 0.70.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R+A	0.44	0.44
Lg Term R	1.56	1.63
Intang/GW	0.00	0.00
Liquidity	3.96	3.96
Liq. + CF	5.40	5.40
Debt Ratio	2.36	2.44
Leverage	1.70	1.70
D/E Ratio	0.70	0.70

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	-2.52%	3.05%	-0.64%	3.69%
2014	10	-2.72%	-1.02%	-4.12%	3.10%
2009	15	3.84%	5.20%	0.83%	4.37%
2004	20	6.71%	10.84%	4.75%	6.09%
1999	25	8.30%	16.42%	8.08%	8.34%
1994	30	9.36%	20.22%	8.90%	11.32%
1990	34	11.77%	16.56%	8.15%	8.42%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.44, 7.03 and 8.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.29, 9.29 and 10.60. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.28, 7.25 and 8.43. The current P/E Ratio is 6.60 based on a stock price of $11.95 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $1.81. The ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Fund from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 3.62, 4.86 and 6.16. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.24, 7.85 and 9.45. The current ratio is 3.88 based on FFO for the last 12 months of $3.08 and a stock price of $11.95. This ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $40.82. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.34, 0.37 and 0.45. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.29 base on a stock price of $11.95. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.38. The current P/B Raito is 0.29 based on a stock price of $11.95, Book Value of 41,242.6M and Book Value per Share of $40.92. The current ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.85. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.68 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $98.6M, Cash Flow per Share of $3.25 and a stock price of $11.95. The current ratio is 65% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.96%. The current dividend yield is 3.68% based on dividends of $0.44 and a stock price of $11.95. The current dividend yield is 24% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.69%. The current dividend yield is 3.68% based on dividends of $0.44 and a stock price of $11.95. The current dividend yield is .03% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median. Note that this test works better on stocks that have increasing dividends. Dividends have recently been cut for this stock. Of course, a cut is dividends is not a positive move.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.77. The current ratio is 1.21 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $300M, Revenue per Share of $9.88 and a stock price of $11.95. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The historical dividend yield test says this. The 10 year dividend yield test just says that the stock price is reasonable, but dividends have been cut. recently. All the rest of the tests are saying that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (1) recommendation. The consensus would be a Hold. 12 month target price consensus is $14.00. This implies a total return of $20.84% with 17.15% from capital gains and 3.68% from dividends.

The last entry for this stock on Stock Chase is 2016. This stock is not well followed. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says the company had a decent run up last year and it might be a stock to watch. Iain Butler at Motley Fool is a Motley Fool pick for long term promise and potential. The company put out a press release via Globe Newswire about their fourth quarter results for 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They conclude it is not a good dividend stock due to unstable dividends. I have stats for last 34 year in which the company raised dividends 23 time and decreased them 6 times.

Simply Wall Street has 5 earnings of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; unstable dividend track record; significant insider selling over the past 3 months; large one-off items impacting financial results; and profit margins (9.6%) are lower than last year (20%). Some members of the Melton family, who own a lot of shares, sold shares in the last year. The CFO bought shares in the past year with one purchase at around $12.25 and another at around $12.75 at the end of December 2024.

Melcor Developments Ltd is a real estate development company. It develops and manages mixed-use residential communities, business and industrial parks, office buildings, retail commercial centers, and golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor Developments Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Goodfellow Inc (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF) ... learn more on Monday, April 7, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

BCE Inc

Today I bought a couple of hundred shares of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ). At a meeting of one of my investment clubs, Sue O’Reilly talked about this stock when we were going over stock charts. She runs The Positive Point group on Meetup.

I looked at my spreadsheet for what I look for. The 10 year dividend yield is 1.96% and current yield of 5.28% based on a stock price of $44.51 and dividends of $2.35 is 169% above that. The expected Revenue for 2025 is $38,655M, Revenue per Share at $19.03 for a P/S Ratio of 2.34 compared to 10 year P/S Ratio of 4.27 and a stock price of $44.51. The current ratio is 45% below the 10 year median ratio, so P/S Ratio test confirms the Dividend yield test. The stock was slightly cheaper at $44.43 when I bought.

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Telecom. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap, although it could just be reasonable. Debt Ratios are awful. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high and this needs to be corrected. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on BCE Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock certainly riskier than when I first bought it in the 1980’s. They certainly cannot currently afford the dividends that they are paying. I personally think it is best when dividends are in the 40% range when reinvestment into the company is also possible. Even if dividends are cut by 50%, the DPR will still be too high. There are certainly headwinds for Telecoms in Canada at this time. However, I still feel that my investment in BCE is still variable, so I keep this investment. The stock is testing as cheap.

I own this stock of BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE). This is one of first stocks I bought, which was in 1982. At that time, it was called an orphan and widow stock. It is not easy to figure out what I have earned on this stock because it has spun off shares for Nortel and Bell Aliant. The annoying thing with their spin offs is you always end up with an odd number of shares.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed earnings is down mainly due to a write-off of Impairment of Assets. It is interesting that the TD Cowen report on BCE is calling for a 50% cut in the dividend to $2.00 as a favourable assumption. I have this stock in Quicken since 1987, some 37 years. I have made a total return of 12.12% per year with 4.16% from capital gains and 7.96% from dividends. I am including Nortel and Bell Aliant in this. They were spun off and I later sold them. I think I did so well because I sold half my Nortel at a very good price.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,012.32 you would have bought 19 shares at $53.28 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $615.22 in dividends. The stock would be worth $633.08. Your total return would have been $1,248.30. This would be a total return of 2.70% per year with 4.59% from capital loss and 7.28% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$53.28	$1,012.32	19	10	$615.22	$633.08	$1,248.30

The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is high (7% and higher) at 12.37%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.71% and 5.47%. The historical dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.31%. The dividend increases are low (below 8% per year) at 4.8% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 3.10%. Note: that a lot of people think that dividends will be and should be cut.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high and this needs to be corrected. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 2200% with 5 year coverage at 162%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is too high at 130% with 5 year coverage at 115%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 35% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF 1) is too high at 125% with 5 year coverage at 125%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow 2 (FCF 2) is too high at 125% with 5 year coverage at 100%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	2200.00%	162.33%
AEPS	130.26%	115.04%
CFPS	34.58%	33.30%
FCF 1	125.10%	124.80%
FCF 2	125.10%	99.70%

Debt Ratios are awful. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is far too high at 1.08 and currently at 1.12. The Intangible Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is too high at 0.89 and currently at 0.92. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is far too low at 0.60 and 0.60 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still too low at 0.83 and currently at 0.85. If you add back the current portion of the long term debt the ratio is fine at 1.71 and currently at 1.75. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.31 and 1.31 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are far too high at 4.23 and 3.23 and currently at 4.23 and 3.23.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	1.08	1.12
Intang/GW	0.89	0.92
Liquidity	0.60	0.60
Liq. + CF	0.83	0.84
Liq. + CF + D	1.71	1.75
Debt Ratio	1.31	1.31
Leverage	4.23	4.23
D/E Ratio	3.23	3.23

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 42 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	4.80%	-3.51%	-11.15%	7.63%
2014	10	4.98%	2.70%	-4.59%	7.28%
2009	15	6.32%	9.54%	0.93%	8.61%
2004	20	6.15%	7.66%	0.71%	6.95%
1999	25	6.41%	-1.34%	-4.86%	3.52%
1994	30	7.83%	7.43%	1.73%	5.70%
1989	35	6.90%	6.17%	1.45%	4.72%
1984	40	6.36%	6.49%	1.97%	4.52%
1982	42	6.33%	8.61%	3.23%	5.38%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.14, 21.83 and 24.75. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.39, 19.77 and 21.28. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.05, 17.72 and 19.07. The current ratio is 13.07 based on a stock price of $32.26 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $2.47. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.81, 19.00 and 20.99. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.51, 17.31 and 18.54. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.38, 15.75 and 17.82. The current ratio is 11.73 based on a Stock Price of $32.26 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $2.75. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $30.15. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.42, 1.61 and 1.76. The current ratio is 1.07 based on a stock price of $32.26. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.16. The current ratio is 2.20 based on a Book Value of $13,404M, Book Value per Share of $14.69 and a stock price of $32.26. This ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $15.97, but this analyst calculates the Book Value differently than I and under this method the 10 year median ratio is 2.57. This BVPS estimate implies a ratio of 2.02 based on a stock price of $32.26 and with Book Value of $14,569M. This ratio is 21% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.96. The current ratio is 4.06 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $7.95 and a stock price of $32.26. This ratio is 42% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.31%. The current dividend yield is 12.37% based on dividends of $3.99 and a stock price of $32.26. The current dividend yield is 187% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.47%. The current dividend yield is 12.37% based on dividends of $3.99 and a stock price of $32.26. The current dividend yield is 126% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Since most people think that the dividend will be cut by 50%, if this happened the current yield would be 6.18% based on dividends of $2.00. This yield would be 13% above the 10 year median ratio. In this case, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. The DPR on EPS would be still high at 80% and DPR on AEPS at 73%. T

he 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.26. The current P/S Ratio is 1.21 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 is $24,334M, Revenue per Share of $26.67 and a stock price of $32.26. The current ratio is 47% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap, although it could just be reasonable. The dividend yields tests are saying that the stock price is cheap. However, if the dividends are cut in half, the 10 year dividend yield test says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. All the other tests are showing the stock price as cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find that the recommendations are all over the place. The analysts’ recommendations are Strong Buy (1), Buy (1), Hold (9), Underperform (4) and Sell (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $35.50 with a high of $45.00 and low of $29.00. The consensus recommendation of $35.50 implies a total return of 22.41% with 10.04% from capital gains and 12.37% from dividends.

Analysts in 2025 on Stock Chase has various opinions on this company. Lots think it would be a positive if dividends were cut. They think that it is a challenging time for telecoms. Puja Tayal on Motley Fool thinks this is a good long term investment, but there is a risk of a dividend cut. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says despite headwinds, BCE has some strengths. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2024 results.

Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and rates it a Hold. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says Revenue was in line with estimates, but earnings were way off. Simply Wall Street has 4 warnings on this stock of dividend of 12.08% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flows; large one-off items impacting financial results; profit margins (0.7%) are lower than last year (8.4%); has a high level of debt. Note that Adjusted EPS is used because of large one-off items.

BCE provides wireless, broadband, television, and landline phone services in Canada. It is one of the Big Three national wireless carriers. BCE has a media segment that holds television, radio, and digital media assets. Its web site is here BCE Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was First National Financial Corporation (TSX-FN, OTC-FNLIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF) ... learn more on Friday, April 4, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy April 2025.... learn more on Thursday, April 3, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

First National Financial Corporation

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on First National Financial Corporation.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I looked up the risk level for this financial and it is listed a medium. It is not on the Money Sense dividend list. If you like this company, you should buy at a reasonable price. The current stock price seems reasonable.

I do not own this stock of First National Financial Corporation (TSX-FN, OTC-FNLIF). I found this stock looking through dividend Stocks on G&M Stock Screener. It is also on the Dividend Aristocrat list, but not on the Money Sense list.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed insiders own a lot of the outstanding shares. Just the sample that I follow of officers and directors, there is a 71% ownership. This bank has given out special dividends in the last few years (except for 2022).

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,010.93 you would have bought 43 shares at $23.51 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $1115.91 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,734.62. Your total return would have been $2,850.53. This would be a total return of 14.08% per year with 5.55% from capital gain and 8.53% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$23.51	$1,010.93	43	10	$1,115.91	$1,734.62	$2,850.53

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.30%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also good at 6.12%, 6.46% and 6.61%. If you add in special dividends, the historical dividend yield is high (7% and above) at 7.32%. The dividend increases are low (less than 8% per year) at 5.2% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 2.04%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 89% with 5 year coverage at 85%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is too high at 109% with 5 year coverage much better at 49%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 113% with 5 year coverage at 223%. There is no agreement on what the FCF is.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	88.71%	84.58%
CFPS	109.00%	49.37%
FCF	112.70%	223.38%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is high at 20.65 and currently at 20.99. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2024 which is fine at 0.98 and currently at 0.98 because this is a more important ratio for a bank. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 4.20 and 2.73 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.68 and 1.68 currently. The bank reported leverage for 2024 at 6% and currently at 6%.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R A	0.98	0.98
Lg Term R	20.65	20.99
Intang/GW	0.00	0.00
Liquidity	4.20	2.73
Liq. + CF	3.79	2.72
Debt Ratio	1.01	1.02
Bk Leverage	6.00%	6.00%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	5.21%	8.55%	1.16%	7.39%
2014	10	5.22%	14.08%	5.55%	8.53%
2009	15	3.91%	12.93%	5.18%	7.75%
2004	18	11.32%	14.80%	6.18%	8.62%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.06, 12.04 and 13.47. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.33, 10.99 and 13.39. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.32, 10.14 and 13.31. The current ratio is 9.98 based on a stock price of $38.90 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $3.90. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $32.13. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.18, 1.35 and 1.61. The current ratio is 1.21 based on a stock price of $38.90. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.78. The current ratio is 3.31 based on a stock price of $38.90, Book Value of $705.68M, and Book Value per Share of $11.77. The current ratio is 13% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have a Book Valuer per Share estimate for 2025 of $12.01. This implies a ratio of 3.24 based on a stock price of $38.90 and Book Value of $720M. This ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.65. The current ratio is negative, so I cannot do any testing here.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.61%. The current dividend yield is 6.43% based on a stock price of $38.90 and dividends of $2.50. The current dividend yield is 3% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.61%. The current dividend yield is 6.43% based on a stock price of $38.90 and dividends of $2.50. The current dividend yield is 0.5% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median total dividend yield of 7.49%. The current total dividend yield is estimated at 7.71% based on a stock price of $38.90 and dividends of $2.50 plus special dividend of $0.50. The current dividend yield is 3% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. I included a special dividend because this stock often pays a special dividend. It is paid at the end of the year, so I estimated special dividend.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.83. The current P/S Ratio is 2.52 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $927.4M, Revenue per Share of $15.47 and a stock price of $38.90. The current ratio is 11% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Both the 10 year dividend yield testing (for current dividend and total dividend) says the stock prices are reasonable. The P/S Ratio test confirms this. The rest of the testing says that the stock price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $43.80 with a high of $45.00 and low of $42.00. The consensus stock price of $43.80 implies a total return of 19.02% with 12.60% from capital gains and 6.43% from dividends based on a current price of $38.20. (There also might be an extra dividend, but the company has not confirmed that yet.)

There are two recommendations on Stock Chase for 2024 and they are both buys. One thought the dividends were too high. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. (Makes you wonder if their star system is still working.) Brian Paradza on Motley Fool thought this would be a good stock for reliable monthly income. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool says buy for a reliable month stream of income. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter of 2024.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance looks at this stock and feels it is undervalued. They think that the fair value would be $75.50. Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance looks at this stock and thinks they pay out too much and thinks there are better opportunities. Simply Wall Street has two warnings of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; and dividend of 7.56% is not well covered by free cash flows.

First National Financial Corp is a Canadian originator, underwriter, and servicer of predominantly prime residential and commercial mortgages. The Company operates in two business segments, Residential and Commercial. These segments are organized by mortgage type and contain revenue and expenses related to origination, underwriting, securitization, and servicing activities. It derives maximum revenue from Residential segment. Its web site is here First National Financial Corporation.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 2, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks April 2025 learn more on Tuesday, April 1, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures

Manulife Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still within the reasonable range, but at the top end. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Manulife Financial Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company did not do well in the very low to negative interest rate period. I kept my stock in this company, because I believe that in the long term, I would be fine. I still believe that. I plan to hold on to my shares. When I was looking at the current price, it was testing for dividends and P/S Ratio at still reasonable, but above the median. I would suggest caution because it is currently near an all-time high on the stock charts.

I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). This company was demutualized in 1999 and it turned into a dividend growth stock. I bought this company for the first time in 2005. Analysts liked it and it was a dividend growth stock. It looks like I bought at the wrong time as 20 year total return is the lowest return for the company. See total return chart below.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I have done better this year than last year in my total return. Last year my total return was 3.87%. This year, it is 5.85% with 2.47% from dividends and 3.38% from capital gains. This company, as all life insurance companies, a hard time with extremely low interest rates to negative interest rates.

Note that dividends were cut by 50% in 2009. All Life Insurance companies were having a hard time with extremely low interest rates to negative. Although not all Life Insurance company cut their rates. The company started to raise dividend rates again in 2014.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,020.28 you would have bought 46 shares at $22.18 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $497.72 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,031.46. Your total return would have been $2,529.08. This would be a total return of 10.56% per year with 7.13% from capital gain and 3.43% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$22.18	$1,020.28	46	10	$497.72	$2,031.36	$2,529.08

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.96%. The 5 year median dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.37%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate at 4.33% and 3.30%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.9% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 when the dividends were increased by 10%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 56% with 5 year coverage good at 43%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 9% with 5 year coverage at 40%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 39% with 5 year coverage at 13%. There is no agreement on what the FCF.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	56.34%	42.76%
AEPS	8.76%	40.55%
CFPS	10.44%	11.42%
FCF	38.83%	12.73%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 are high at 5.69 and currently at 5.66. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2024 which is fine at 0.98 and currently at 0.98 because this is a more important ratio for a financial. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.16 and 1.16 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.05 and currently at 2.04. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is fine for a financial at 1.06 and 1.06 currently. The Leverage reported for 2024 is fine at 23.7% and currently at 23.7%

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R A	0.98	0.98
Lg Term R	5.69	5.66
Intang/GW	0.14	0.14
Liquidity	1.16	1.16
Liq. + CF	2.05	2.04
Debt Ratio	1.06	1.06
Leverage Rep	23.70%	23.70%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	9.86%	14.96%	10.87%	4.08%
2014	10	10.87%	10.56%	7.13%	3.43%
2009	15	4.91%	8.58%	5.66%	2.91%
2004	20	6.32%	4.78%	2.36%	2.42%
1999	24	8.67%	10.09%	6.46%	3.63%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.53, 7.14 and 9.46. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.53, 9.99 and 11.45. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.82, 13.43 and 15.86. The current ratio is 10.73 based on a stock price of $44.45 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $4.14. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have also Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.86, 7.78 and 9.00. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.96, 8.14 and 10.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.22, 9.77 and 11.48. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 10.63 based on a stock price of $44.45 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $4.18. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $49.10. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.52, 0.63 and 0.73. The current ratio is 0.91 based on a stock price $44.45. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.04. The current P/B Ratio is 1.73 based on a Book Value of $44,312M, Book Value per Share of 25.63 and a stock price of $44.45. The current ratio is 67% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $27.40. This implies a Book Value of $47,375M and a ratio of 1.62 based on a stock price of $44.45. This ratio is 56% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.35. The current ratio is 2.90 based on Cash Flow per Share for the past 12 months of $15.32, Cash Flow of $26,494M and a stock price of $44.45. This ratio is 24% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.30%. The current dividend yield is 3.96% based on a stock price of $44.45 and a dividend of $1.76. The current dividends yield 19.9% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. A problem with this test is that dividends have been cut in the past.

I get a 10 median dividend yield of 4.33%. The current dividend yield is 3.96% based on a stock price of $44.45 and a dividend of $1.76. The current dividends yield 8.54% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.89. The current ratio is 1.02 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $75,418M, Revenue per Share of $43.62 and a stock price of $44.45. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably still within the reasonable range, but at the top end. The 10 year median dividend yield says that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median. The P/S Ratio test says the same thing. Most of the rest of the testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. I think caution is necessary.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (6), Hold (4) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $49.43 with a high of $53.00 and low of $39.00. This 12 month stock price implies a total return of 15.16% with 11.20% from capital gains and 3.96% from dividends based on a current price of $44.45.

Most of the analysts’ on Stock Chase give this a buy, but there are a couple of Holds. It is on the Money Sense Dividend list. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says Manulife Financial is a compelling investment opportunity. Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool thinks this stock gives investors stability in these uncertain times. The company put out a press release via PR Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2024.

Zacks via Yahoo Finance gives a review of this stock. Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance says that Manulife is a top extreme value stocks to buy now. Jeff Lagerquist on Yahoo Finance says BMO stays bullish on Canadian stocks, including Manulife. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says do not buy this stock now. Simply Wall Street has no warnings out on this stock.

Manulife Financial provides life insurance, annuities, and asset management products to individuals and group customers in Canada, the United States, and Asia. The US business, which primarily operates under the John Hancock brand, contributes about 27% of earnings. The Asia segment provides insurance products and insurance-based wealth accumulation products contributes around 30% of earnings. The Canadian business segment contributes approximately 23% of earnings. Its web site is here Manulife Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be First National Financial Corporation (TSX-FN, OTC-FNLIF) ... learn more on Monday, March 31, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I was trying out this stock. I still believe in it and I am keeping it, but currently not buying anything more. I am no longer putting anything into my RSP accounts. It is my RSP accounts because the dividend payments are classified as interest payments. It would seem that this stock is selling at a relatively cheap price.

I own this stock of Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF). I saw this on company on the Canadian Dividend All-Star List. It has only been around since 2012 and has good dividends. It has just recently started to pay dividends and dividends are good but are taxed as income.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed all the leadership team and the Chairman bought shares in the past year. I have owned this stock for 7 years and I have made a total return of 8.88% with a capital loss of 0.99% and interest payments of 9.87%. Note that dividends are considered to be interest payments, so this stock is best held in your RSP or TFSA.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,005.30 you would have bought 90 shares at $11.17 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $889.50 in dividends. The stock would be worth $981.90. Your total return would have been $1,871.40. This would be a total return of 8.57% per year with 0.24% from capital loss and 8.80% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$11.17	$1,005.30	90	10	$889.50	$981.90	$1,871.40

The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is high (7% and above) at 8.64%. If you include the special dividend for 2025 the yield is 10.12%. This company has been issuing special dividends each year. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are high at 7.99%, 7.25 and 7.24%. If you include special dividends the 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are high at 8.86%, 7.95 and 7.77%. The dividend growth is 0% for the last 5 years for the regular dividends. However, if we look at all dividends paid, the dividend growth is low (less than 8% per year) at 4.8% per year. Note that the dividends are taxed as interest payments.

Note that total dividends have gone both up and down. In the past 11 years, total dividends have gone up 9 times and down 2 times. Total dividends, so far for 2025 have gone down 8.4%. Note the Special Dividend paid each year depending on how well the company did the previous year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 114% with 5 year coverage at 100%. However, if you look at the dividends paid in cash, the DPR is 96% and with 5 year coverage at 87%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is high at 50% with 5 year coverage at 62%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF 1) is good at 49% with 5 year coverage fine at 69%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF 1) is fine at 51% with 5 year coverage at 70%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	114.42%	100.19%
Tot Div	95.95%	87.23%
CFPS	50.00%	61.99%
FCF 1	49.38%	69.23%
FCF 2	51.10%	70.00%

> Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is fine at 0.64 and currently at 0.64. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.61 and 1.61 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.49 and 2.49 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.67 and 0.67 and currently at 1.67 and 0.37.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.64	0.64
Intang/GW	0.00	0.00
Liquidity	1.61	1.61
Liq. + CF	4.00	4.94
Debt Ratio	2.49	2.49
Leverage	1.67	1.67
D/E Ratio	0.67	0.67

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 13 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	4.83%	2.39%	-5.53%	7.92%
2014	10	3.20%	8.57%	-0.24%	8.80%
2009	13	4.50%	7.11%	1.34%	5.77%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.69. 11.52 and 13.64. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.37, 12.37 and 13.56. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.65, 12.40 and 13.47. The current ratio is 10.56 based on a stock price of $10.77 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $1.02. The current ratio is below the low ratio of 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $15.86. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.79 and 0.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.68 based on a stock price of $10.77. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current ratio is 0.98 based on a stock price of $10.77, Book Value of $517M and Book Value per Share of $10.96. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $11.00. This implies a book Value of $519M and a ratio of 0.98 based on a stock price of $10.77. This ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.77. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.46 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $68.1M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.44 and a stock price of $10.77. The current ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.25%. The current dividend is 8.64% based on dividends of $0.93 and a stock price of $10.77. This dividend yield is 19% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 7.24%. The current dividend is 8.64% based on dividends of $0.93 and a stock price of $10.77. This dividend yield is 19% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.77% for the dividend and special dividends paid. The current dividend is 10.12% based on dividends of $0.93, special dividend for 2025 of $0.16 and a stock price of $10.77. This dividend yield is 30% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 7.95% for the dividend and special dividends paid. The current dividend is 10.12% based on dividends of $0.93, special dividend for 2025 of $0.16 and a stock price of $10.77. This dividend yield is 27% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.48. The current P/S Ratio is 5.66 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $89.75, Revenue per Share of $1.90 and a stock price of $10.77. The current ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. I looked dividend yield testing using both the current dividend and the current dividend and current special dividends. I did this because they are paying a special dividend each year. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is reasonable but below the median, but when I add in the current special dividend, the tests say the stock price is cheap. The P/S Ratio testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap. Most of the rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) only. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $12.89 with a high of $13.00 and low of $12.78. The current consensus stock price of $12.89 implies a total return of 29.81% with 19.68% from capital gains and 10.12% from dividends.

There is only one entry on Stock Chase for this stock. It is a Top Pick and the analyst says it is not well followed. Christopher Liew onMotley Fool says to buy because it is low risk, 2024 was a very successful year and they have monthly dividends with a special dividend depending on its financial performance. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says it is a good time to buy because the stock is down. The company put out a press release via Globe and Mail about their fourth quarter of 2024 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and think it is undervalued. They say a fair value of $14.74. They have two warnings out on this stock of unstable dividend track record; and has a high level of debt. They do not understand the dividend payments of monthly dividends and a special one after the year end depending on how well the company did.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp is a mortgage investment corporation in Canada. The company is a provider of financing solutions to commercial real estate and development communities in urban centers in Ontario and Western Canada. The company generates its revenue from mortgage interest and fees and rental income. Its web site is here Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Hydro One Ltd (TSX-H, OTC-HRNNF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... learn more on Friday, March 28, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Study Supports 100% Equity Investing ... learn more on Thursday, March 27, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Hydro One Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Utility. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. Debt Ratios are mostly fine, but the company has a lot of debt. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Hydro One Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a dividend growth utility. That is the good news. I think that they need to moderate their dividends and lower increases a bit. It would seem that stock price is on the expensive side. It happens sometimes. It is interesting that the analysts’ recommendations of a Hold concur with my analysis that the stock price is expensive. If I had this stock, I would not sell as I believe in keeping stocks for the long term. However, now is not the time to buy more.

I do not own this stock of Hydro One Ltd (TSX-H, OTC-HRNNF). It is a utility stock and has been recommended by various persons. It is on the Money Sense list with a C. Rating. It appeared in the Stable Dividend Portfolio when Norman Rothery originally wrote about it in December 21, 2022.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that most of the directors have options, but not Shares in the company. Of 10 directors, 2 have shares. The Chairman of the company has no shares. The Province of Ontario still owns 47% of the outstanding shares.

If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,008.00 you would have bought 45 shares at $22.29 per share. In December 2024, after 9 years you would have received $417.25 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,992.15. Your total return would have been $2,409.40. This would be a total return of 11.36% per year with 7.92% from capital gain and 3.43% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$22.29	$1,008.00	45	9	$417.25	$1,992.15	$2,409.40

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 2.61%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are 3.21% and 3.73%. (Since the company has only been on the TSX for 10 years the historical dividend yield would also be 3.73%.) The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 5.4% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 6%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine for a utility at 65% with 5 year coverage at 55%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is too high at 114% with 5 year coverage is fine at 77%. The DPR for 2024 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is fine at 65% with 5 year coverage at 65%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 26% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF 1) is non-calculable because of negative FCF. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF 1) is non-calculable because of negative FCF with 5 year coverage too high at 473%. There is no agreement on what the FCF, but all sites say it is negative for 2024.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	64.53%	55.46%
AFFO	113.67%	76.71%
FFO	32.71%	31.90%
AEPS	64.53%	64.80%
CFPS	26.99%	27.78%
FCF 1	-142.88%	-452.84%
FCF 2	-399.46%	473.31%

Debt Ratios are mostly fine, but the company has a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is fine at 0.62 and currently at 0.57. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is too low at 0.60 and 0.60 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still low at 1.10 and currently at 1.10. If you add back in the current portion of the long term debt, the ratios are acceptable at 1.50 and currently at 1.50. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.50 and 1.50 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are too high at 3.03 and 2.02 and currently at 3.03 and 2.02. I prefer these to be below 3.00 and 2.00. However, utilities tend to have lots of debt.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.62	0.57
Intang/GW	0.04	0.04
Liquidity	0.60	0.60
Liq. + CF	1.10	1.10
Liq. + CF+D	1.50	1.51
Debt Ratio	1.50	1.50
Leverage	3.03	3.03
D/E Ratio	2.02	2.02

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 10 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	5	5.13%	15.72%	12.15%	3.57%
2015	10	2.70%	10.40%	7.43%	2.97%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.67, 19.70, 21.73. The corresponding 10 year and historical ratios are 17.13, 19.11 and 21.08. The current P/E Ratio is 23.56 based on a stock price of $48.21 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $2.05. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.67, 19.70, 21.73. The corresponding 10 year and historical ratios are 17.90, 19.47 and 20.83. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 23.63 based on a stock price of $48.21 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $2.04. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $30.45. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.05, 1.14 and 1.25. The current ratio is 1.58 based on a stock price of $48.21. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.49. The current ratio is 2.39 based on a Book Value of $12,108M, Book Value per Share of $20.20 and a stock price of $48.21. The current ratio is 60% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $20.87. This implies a ratio of 2.31 with a stock price of $48.21 and a Book Value of $12,510M. This ratio is 55% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.43. The current ratio is 11.19 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $4.31, Cash Flow of $2,584M and a stock price of $48.21. The current ratio is 33% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year and historical median dividend yield of 3.73%. The current dividend yield is 2.61% based on dividends of $1.2568 and a stock price of $48.21. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year and historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.26. The current ratio is 3.32 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $8,710M, Revenue per Share of $14.53 and a stock price of $48.21. The current ratio is 47% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the other tests are saying the same thing. The stock price is also at an all time high on a stock charge.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (10), Underperform (2), and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $45.19 with a high of $47.00 and low of $38.00. The consensus stock price of $45.19 implies a total loss of 3.66% with a 6.26% from capital loss and 2.61% from dividends.

Analysts in 2024 on Stock Chase gave a mix of Buy and Do Not Buy. One liked EMA better and another thought the stock was too expensive. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is not currently on the Money Sense Dividend list. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says to buy dividend paying stocks to protect you against the tariffs. Hydro One is a stock you should buy. Rajiv Nanjapla on Motley Fool says in these uncertain times buy defensive Canadian stocks like Hydro One. The company put out a press release about their fourth quarter results..

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance writes about Hydro One and they are not enthusiastic about this stock. Simply Wall Street has two warnings on this stock of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; and dividend of 2.58% is not well covered by free cash flows.

Hydro One operates regulated transmission and distribution assets in Ontario. The province of Ontario holds an approximate 47.5% common equity stake. Its web site is here Hydro One Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 26, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about What to do About Identity Theft.... learn more on Tuesday, March 25, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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