Monday, December 5, 2016

WiLan Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap with problems. Even though they have had revenue and cash flow, EPS has not been there. Comprehensive Income is just as bad. They have just cut their dividends by some 76% because they have not been able to afford dividends compared to earnings for some time. It is also a patent troll. See my spreadsheet on WiLan Inc.

I do not own this stock of WiLan Inc. (TSX-WIN, OTC-WILN), but I used to. I bought this stock in 2000 and sold in 2006. I lost 99.4% of my investment. Good job I did not invest much in this stock, but I still lost over $12,000. I sold at a low of $0.60 a share plus paid $50.00 in commission. I do not know why I paid so much in commission as generally my commission was around $26 a trade at that time. The stock is currently around $1.82 per share.

The reason I bought this company in 2000 was because it was an up and coming company in communications. I sold it in 2006 after losing most of my investment. This stock has never recovered from the bubble that occurred in 2000. I lost all hope of ever making any money on this stock. The other thing is that they completely refocused their company, or completely changed it to earn money on their patents. That is they became patent trolls.

The just decreased their dividend by some 76%. They have had a number of earnings losses years and could not really afford their dividend. Over the past 5 year they paid out over 400% of what they made. If you look at dividend growth over the past 5 years, it is down by 10.6% per year. They are still expected to payout more this year than they earn but analysts expect better in 2017. However earnings for the first three quarters are lower than last year!

They have increased the outstanding share by 2% and 11.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This means, especially for the longer term, we should be looking at per share values. The company is currently reporting in US$. The Revenue has grown by 15.1% and 17.0% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$. The Revenue per Share has grown at 12.9% and 5.3% US$ per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Because of the years of earning losses, I cannot calculate growth per year for EPS. However, I can say that total EPS has grown at 138% and 115% over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is growing. It has grown at the rate of 109% US$ per year over the past 5 years. Over the past 10 years CFPS has grown in total by 253%. There are negative cash flow years so I cannot calculate per year growth.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.74, 23.74 and 35.75. I cannot calculate P/E Ratios for the past 10 years or historically as there are too many year of earning losses. The current P/E Ratio is 3.42 based on a stock price of $1.82 CDN$ and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.53 CDN$ ($0.40 US$). The 5 year P/E Ratios are rather spread out, but a P/E Ratio of 3.42 is low. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $5.81 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.62, 1.12 and 1.56. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.31 based on a stock price of $1.82 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.88 CDN$. The current P/B Ratio is 0.64 based on a stock price of $1.82 CDN$ and BVPS of $2.82 CDN$. The current ratio is some 66% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.

I cannot do any dividend yield testing as the dividend has been cut. The P/S Ratio is 7.37 CDN$. The current P/S Ratio is 1.99 CDN$ based on Revenues of $108.11 CDN$ ($81.30 US$), Revenue per Share of $0.91 CDN$ and a stock price of $1.82 CDN$. The current P/S Ratio is some 73% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find 3 analysts following this stock with 2 Strong Buy and 1 Buy recommendation. The consensus recommendations would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $3.18. This implies a total return of 77.47% with 74.73% from capital gains and 2.75% from dividends based on a current price of $1.82.

There is some technical analysis on this stock at Wall Street Confidential. Williams Percent Range shows stock is close to being overbought. In other words stock price is high. This article in CSZ News talk about analysts being positive about this stock. Note price is quoted in US$ not CDN$. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase . This article on Street Insider talks about one of this company's license Agreement.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Chesswood Group Ltd. (TSX-CHW, OTC-CHWWF)... learn more on Wednesday, December 7, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks December 2016... learn more on Tuesday, December 6, 2016 around 5 pm.

Wi-LAN Inc. is an intellectual property licensing company. The Company develops, acquires, licenses and enforces a range of patented technologies which are utilized in products in the communications and consumer electronics markets. Its web site is here WiLan Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, December 2, 2016

Finning International Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap to reasonable. I tend to think that the best stock price test is using Dividend Yield. This test uses no estimate and uses current data. The problem using P/E Ratios for Industrial stocks is that earnings tend to be volatile. It has been a tough recovery for a lot of companies, but Finning seems to currently have momentum. See my spreadsheet on Finning International Inc.

I do not own this stock of Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF). When I was in the market to buy an industrial stock in this area in 2007, I look at this stock was well as Toromont Industries (TSX-TIH). At the time I liked Toromont better, so that is what I bought. Now, the only reason I would not buy this company is because I own Toromont Industries Ltd. They are both involved with Caterpillar equipment, although the companies are often classified in different sectors. I classify these companies as industrials, but Stock Channel classifies Finning as Construction and Finning as Industrial.

Dividends are low to moderate. Lately the dividend is higher than it has ever been before. The current dividend is 2.74%. The current dividend is based on dividends of $0.73 and a stock price of $26.67. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.40%, and the historical median dividend is 1.64%. The dividend growth is moderate. The dividends have grown at 9.1% and 11.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

This year dividends have not increased. The company has raised it dividends every year since 2002 with the exception of 2009. Between 1996 and 2001 dividends were flat. The last time the dividends were decreased was in 1991. So really dividend changes are a mixed bag.

Last year was not a good year and the company had an earnings loss. However, if you compare the dividends paid over the paid 5 years to the EPS over the past 5 years, the Dividend Payout Ratio is 48.6%. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio is 30.8%. (The median is what the payout is most likely to be.) The DPR for CFPS for 2015 is 18.2% with a 5 year median of 12.5%. So it seems that the company can afford the dividends.

2015 was not a good year as they had an earnings loss. However, the earnings loss was mainly due an asset impairment loss. Analysts expect the company to have positive earnings again in this year. This seems reasonable.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.13, 13.17 and 15.20. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.47, 15.85 and 19.23. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.03, 14.99 and 17.80. The current forward P/E Ratio is 39.22 based on a stock price of $26.67 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.68. The forward P/E Ratio corresponding with the 2017 EPS estimate of $1.25 is 21.34. All this would seem to suggest that this stock price testing shows the stock price to be relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $13.13. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.15, 1.44 and 1.71. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.03 based on a stock price of $26.67. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.34. The current P/B Ratio is 2.37 a value that is just 1.25 higher than the 10 year ratio. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $11.27 and a stock price of $26.67. This stock price suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

The historical median Dividend Yield is 1.64%. The current dividend is 67% higher at 2.74%. The current dividend is based on dividends of $0.73 and a stock price of $26.67. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Dividend yields have been higher lately than historically. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.40%. This is 14% below the current yield. Against the 5 year median, the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $24.72.

Yesterday Hazel Jackson on Frisco Fastball talked about recent analysts coverage with 2 rating it a "Buy", 2 "Sell", while 4 "Hold". This means 25% are positive. Will Ashworth on Motley Fool says why he does not like this stock. However, they did not repurchase 10% of the shares. So far there has been no repurchase in 2016. In 2015 they repurchased 2.5% of the outstanding shares for around $20.76 per share. (I must admit I also do not like share repurchase plans and often they are not repurchased at a good price.) Mostly the analysts like this stock at Stock Chase.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here and here.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Crescent Point Energy Corp. (TSX-CPG, NYSE-CPG)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be WiLan Inc. (TSX-WIN, OTC-WILN)... learn more on Monday, December 5, 2016 around 5 pm.

This company sells, rents and provides customer support services for Caterpillar equipment and engines. They cover Canada, UK, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay. Its web site is here Finning International Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Crescent Point Energy Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap and risky. Dividends stocks hit their low point after a dividend cut. The dividend cut on this stock happened a while ago and the stock is currently recovering somewhat. So the time to get the cheapest price is when a dividend cut is announced. See my spreadsheet on Crescent Point Energy Corp.

I do not own this stock of Crescent Point Energy Corp. (TSX-CPG, NYSE-CPG). I got this idea to look into this stock from another blogger, My Own Advisor and his November 2012 blog entry on great Canadian dividend paying stocks. I also noticed that several people at the Toronto Money Show of 2013 mentioned this stock.

This stock has been cutting it dividends since 2015 after keeping the dividend flat for 5 years. Dividends since 2015 are down by 87%. The latest dividend cut was in 2016 and it was for 70%. It is not surprising as this stock is into oil and gas exploration. Earnings for 2015 were negative and they are expected to remain negative this year and next year.

Shares have increased a lot over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares are up by 13.6% and 44.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This means that when looking at this stock, it is the per share values that would point to any growth. You can really see this when looking at Revenue, where Revenue growth is 12.8% and 27.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has declined by 0.7% and 0.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. They really are not currently growing where Revenue is concerned.

One of the analysts from Stock Chase pointed out that people bought this stock for the dividends. Others have said this too. However, I do not think that it is wise to count on dividends from an oil and gas producer. These companies go through boom and bust all the time. They tend to have busts in the bad times and that may be the times when dividend investors can least afford a big cuts to dividends.

However, when dividends are good you can benefit. On this stock if you bought it 5, 10 or 15 years ago dividends would have covered your original price if you paid a median price by 25.89%, 124.39% and 972.95%. However, past performance does not necessarily show what the future performance will be. This stock also used to be an income trust stock.

The 15 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.11, 14.97 and 16.74. This might be useful in the future when they are again earning money. However, you cannot really test stock price using P/E Ratios as 2016 and 2017 EPS are expected to be negative and 2018 earnings will be low.

I get a Graham Price of $11.77 after doing some fudging because of lack of earnings in 2016. The low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.50, 1.82 and 2.25. These are rather high. However, the current P/GP Ratio is currently at 1.35 based on a stock price of $15.90. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.68. The current P/B Ratio is 0.85 a values some 495 lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $18.64 and a stock price of $15.90. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 4.20. The current P/S Ratio is 3.38 based on 2016 Revenue estimate of $2549M with Revenue per Share of $4.71 and a current stock price of $15.90. The current P/S Ratio is 19.6% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. (Really to be cheap, the current ratio needs to be 20% lower, but it is very close.)

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The most recommendation is a Buy recommendation and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.22. This implies a total return of 48.30% with 46.04% from capital gains and 2.26% from dividends based on a current stock price of $15.90.

Alexander John Tun of Motley Fool thinks that this company is trading at a price too hard to ignore. He believes that it is also trading relatively lower than similar stock. Geoffrey Morgan in the Financial Post says that the company's losses in the third quarter have narrowed because of technological improvements. Analysts have different views of this stock at Stock Chase.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report hereand here.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX-INE, OTC-INGXF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF)... learn more on Friday, December 2, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Debt Ratios... learn more on Thursday, December 1, 2016 around 5 pm.

Crescent Point Energy Corp. is a Canada-based oil and gas exploration, development and production company. The Company is a conventional oil and gas producer with assets focused in properties consisting of assets light and medium oil and natural gas reserves in Western Canada and the United States. It is involved in acquiring, developing and holding interests in petroleum and natural gas properties and assets through a general partnership and wholly owned subsidiaries. Its web site is here Crescent Point Energy Corp.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, November 28, 2016

Innergex Renewable Energy

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Bit expensive. I do not like this stock. They cannot afford their dividends and the Long Term Debt/ Market Cap Ratio is above 1.00. Also their book value is dropping. See my spreadsheet on Innergex Renewable Energy.

I do not own this stock of Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX-INE, OTC-INGXF), but I used to. I bought this stock in 2006 as it was highly rated and it was in the alternative energy field. I bought Innergex Power on a buy rating and favorable report from TD although it has only been going from 2003. In 2008 I sold Innergex as I did not think that it is a stock I want to hold as dividend increased less than the rate of inflation.

This company used to be an income trust. On March 29, 2010 the company changed from an income trust of Innergex Power (IEF.UN) to Innergex Renewable Energy (INE) and the strategic combination of Innergex Power Income Fund and Innergex Renewable Energy became effective. For INE shareholders, dividends were cut in 2010 and then increased in 2011, so in the end dividends were only cut by just over 14%.

Dividends have been growing lately and the growth is at 6% per year over the past 5 years. However, dividends have declined over the past 10 years by 0.5%. Dividend yield is currently at 4.64% based on dividends of $0.64 and a stock price of $13.80. By my standards the dividend growth for the past 5 years is low and the dividends are good.

They are not earning enough to cover the dividends. In the past 5 years they have paid out in dividends more than they have earned. In 2015 they had an earnings loss of $0.37 and paid out $0.59 in dividends. Dividends have been covered by CFPS where 93.7% of the CFPS was paid out in dividends. The 5 year median payout via CFPS is better at 43%.

The Liquidity Ratio is good at 2.15. The Debt Ratio is very low at just 1.18 where you want to see a ratio of 1.50 or better. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are very high at 6.63 and 5.63 where you want to see ratios of less than 3.00 and 2.00 respectively.

However, what really bothers me about their debt is that their long term debt is currently at a ratio to the market cap of 1.63. The market is valuing this company way below just the long term debt. This is not good.

I cannot test the stock price using Price/Earnings per Share Ratio because I just have negative P/E Ratios.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.87. The current P/B Ratio is 4.48 a value some 140% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $3.08 and a Stock Price of $13.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. In absolute terms a P/B Ratio of 4.48 is high.

I get a Graham Price of $3.90. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.28, 1.42 and 1.57. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.54 based on a stock price of $13.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. In absolute terms a P/GP Ratio of 3.54 is high. Problem is earnings are low and Book Value is dropping.

You cannot use historical median dividend yields as this stock used to be an income trust. The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 5.57% and the current Dividend Yield is 4.64% a value some 18% lower. By this measure, the stock price seems to be reasonable but above the median. It is getting close to expensive.

The 10 year median P/S Ratio 5.25 and the current P/S Ratio is 5.13 a value some 2.4% lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. I think a P/S Ratio of 5.13 is a rather high one however.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most are a hold and the consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $16.41. This implies a total return of 23.55% with 18.91% from capital gains and 4.64% from dividends.

Demetris Afxentiou of Motley Fool likes this stock and the renewable energy field. Some technical analysis is done on this stock at Wall Street Confidential. The Williams Percent Range shows that this stock is neither oversold nor overbought. There is a positive report on this company at World Finance.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here and here.

The last stock I wrote about was about was PFB Corp. (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Crescent Point Energy Corp. (TSX-CPG, NYSE-CPG)... learn more on Wednesday, November 30, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Valeant Pharmaceuticals and Debt... learn more on Tuesday, November 29, 2016 around 5 pm.

Innergex is involved in Canada's renewable energy industry. The Company develops, owns and operates facilities located in North America, leveraging run-of-river hydroelectric power generating facilities, wind farms and photovoltaic solar parks. Its web site is here Innergex Renewable Energy.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, November 25, 2016

PFB Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price seems reasonable. In testing of the stock price I had mixed results. However, there were questions or problems with most of the tests. Price is probably relatively reasonable. The company has good debt ratios to see it through some tough times. See my spreadsheet on PFB Corp.

I do not own this stock of PFB Corp. (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF). I am following this stock as I read a positive article on this stock in November 2009 and thought I would do a spreadsheet on it. This stock is a dividend paying small cap stock. The article said that this stock would be good for long-term gains and rising dividends. This is the thing with small cap stock; you can get a blend of capital gains and rising dividends in the long term only if the company is successful.

This company started to pay dividends in 1997, almost 20 years ago. It has only raised the dividend 3 times. In 2001 the increase was 50%, in 2005 it was 60% and in 2016 the increase was 16.7%. Dividend growth to the end of 2015 for the past 5 and 10 years is 0%. If you look at dividends to date you get a 5 year increase of 3.13% per year. This is higher than the rate of inflation. I would prefer stocks that raised the dividend each year.

The current dividend yield is moderate at 3.21%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.08%. The 10 year median dividend yield is 3.94% and the historical dividend yield is 2.90%. So yield has fluctuated, but has remained within the moderate zone. However the 5 year rate is getting into the good zone.

Over the 5 year period to the end of 2015 the EPS has covered the dividend at 91%. The coverage by CFPS is at 49.8%. The coverage has varied each year because EPS and CFPS are rather volatile. This is an industrial stock so that should be expected.

If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years, you could be earning 4.6%, 2.6% and 8.18% yield on your original stock price, if you paid a median price. Yes, the 10 years yield is correct at 2.6% because the stock price was quite high exactly 10 years ago. If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 years the dividends would have covered 37.9%, 32.7% and 140.6% of the cost of your stock if you paid a median price.

This company had a very good year in 2015. They are not expected to do as well in 2016 and in 2015, but they are still expected to do well. Because outstanding shares have not really changed over the past 5 and 10 years, you can look at things like Revenue or Revenue per Share. However, since earnings and cash flow are volatile, it is best to look at the 5 year running averages.

The best growth is in Revenue per Share. Revenue per Share has grown by 8.3% and 2.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share using the 5 year running average has growth over the past 5 and 10 years of 4.8% and 3.2% per year.

For EPS, EPS is up by 22.1% and down by 1.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. As stated the best way to judge growth is the 5 year running average. EPS using the 5 year running average shows growth of 0.6% and a decline of 1.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is really low growth. A lot of companies are having trouble coming out of the 2008 recession.

The bright spot in earnings is that the growth using 5 year running averages for comprehensive income over the past 5 years is at 5.4%. Net Income growth over the past 5 years using 5 year running averages is just 1.3%. This could point to the company doing better than it might first appear in earnings growth. It is a good sign when comprehensive income is higher than net income. (There is no 10 year 5 year running average for comprehensive income as statements have only included comprehensive income since 2006.)

CFPS looks decent for the past 5 and 10 years with growth of 16.4% and 3.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, using 5 year running averages growth is a lot lower with a decline in CFPS of 1.9% and an increase of 0.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This again is really low growth.

The debt ratios are really good for this company. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.45 with a 5 year median value of 2.45. The Debt Ratio is 2.61 with a 5 year median value also of 2.61. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 is at 1.62 and 0.62 respectively with 5 year median values of 1.45 and 0.45 respectively.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.23, 12.51 and 14.79. The 10 year values are 11.16, 14.04 and 17.23. The historical values are 8.20, 10.36 and 14.79. The current P/E Ratio is 12.82 based on a stock price of $8.72 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.68. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $10.72. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.72, 0.93 and 1.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.81 based on a stock price of $8.72. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 0.93. The current ratio is 1.16 which is some 24.5% higher than the 10 year ratio. The current ratio is based on BVPS of $7.51 and a stock price of $8.72. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The current ratio is also much lower than what is considered to be a good ratio of 1.50. The problem with this test is that the P/B Ratios are very low ratio as a good ratio is considered to be 1.50.

The historical dividend yield is 2.90%. The dividend yield at 3.21% is some 10.7% higher. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.28 and a stock price of $8.72. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. Problem with this test is that can we consider this stock to be a dividend growth stock?

The 10 year P/S Ratio is 0.51. The current P/S Ratio is 0.57 based on Revenue estimate for 2016 of $101.9M and Revenue per Share of $15.2M and a stock price of $8.72. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. A problem with this testing is that the P/S Ratios are very low as a good P/S Ratio is around 1.00.

There are two analysts following this stock. Both analysts rate this stock as a Buy. The consensus would also be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $12.68. This implies a total return of 48.62% with 45.41% from capital gain and 3.215 from dividends based on a current stock price of $8.72.

PFB Corp put out a News Wire about their third quarterly results. Sales and net income are lower. Analysis of this stock is showing on Stock News Week. Piotroski F-Score of 6 is mediocre. There is some more analysis on Wall Street Confidential. CCI is rather high at 90.48. There is also some analysis of this stock's dividend on Guru Focus.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.

The last stock I wrote about was about was IBI Group Inc. (TSX-IBG, OTC-IBIBF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX-INE, OTC-INGXF)... learn more on Monday, November 28, 2016 around 5 pm.

PFB Corporation, through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, is a vertically-integrated manufacturer of proprietary insulating building products that are based on expanded polystyrene (EPS) technology. This expanded polystyrene (EPS) rigid insulation is used in a wide variety of residential and commercial construction projects across North America. It was founded in 1968 as Plasti-Fab Ltd, now a subsidiary of PFB. Directors and officers own 57% of the issued and outstanding common shares as of December 31, 2008. Its web site is here PFB Corp.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

IBI Group Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is Cheap to Reasonable. Price is hard check because of cancelled dividend and negative book value. I think it is a viable company, but it may take some time to recover. See my spreadsheet on IBI Group Inc.

I do not own this stock of IBI Group Inc. (TSX-IBG, OTC-IBIBF). I have had this stock on my list to investigate for some time before I finally did in 2011. What finally prompted me set up a spreadsheet on this stock was an investment report I read in March of 2011.

This company had 3 bad years of negative earnings in 2012 to 2014 inclusive. They suspended the dividends in 2013 after paying only 1 dividend. This used to be an income trust. A lot of income trust companies are having a hard time adjusting to being corporations. There is no mention of when they might resume dividends, but they did make a profit in 2015 but not in the first 3 months 2016.

Some analysts have complained about the high debt of this company. They seem to be trying to reduce debt. For the third quarter of 2016, the Debt/Market Cap Ratio moved to 0.35 from 1.31. Debt went down (50%), but market cap also went up (180%).

One serious problem is that the Book Value of this company is negative. This means that break value of the company is negative. This has occurred because of the three years of negative earnings.

The 12 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.20, 9.45 and 12.17. They are probably a bit low. If you include only positive P/E Ratios the ratios are 10.49, 11.34 and 15.95. The current P/E Ratio is 21.34 based on a stock price of $6.19 and 2016 EPS estimate of $0.29. This is rather high. If you use the 2017 EPS estimate of $0.52 gives you get a P/E Ratio of 11.90. This probably points to the stock price is being reasonable and around the median.

I cannot do any P/B Ratio testing or any Graham Price testing because the Book Value for this stock is negative. I can do no dividend yield testing because the dividend is suspended.

The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 0.60. The current P/S Ratio is 0.44 based on a stock price of $6.19, Revenue of $353M and Revenue per Share of $14.14M. The current P/S Ratio is some 27% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Another way to look at this stock is to see how Revenue per Share, Cash Flow per Share and EPS is changing relatively to the stock price change. On this stock you need to look at per share values because the outstanding shares have been rising by 14% and 17% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The stock price has been falling at 14.1% and 6.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share has been falling by 11.1% and 2.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has been fall by 16.2% and 14.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per share has been falling by 27.9% and 14.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

So what do we see in this data. First Revenue for the 12 month period ending in the third quarter is close to the estimate for Revenue in 2016. Revenue has not fallen as much as the stock price. This again shows that the stock price is relatively cheap.

EPS has dropped a little faster than the stock price. The 12 month period to the end of the third quarter shows negative EPS, but analysts expect earnings of $0.29. They could be right. This would suggest price is relatively reasonable.

There are lots of problems looking at cash flow. First for the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, Cash Flow is down by just 9.7%, but the 2016 estimates shows Cash Flow down by 51%. Cash Flow has been volatile. Cash flow was negative 5 years ago.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy and Hold recommendations. There is more Buy than Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $7.10. This implies a total return of 14.70% all from capital gains based on a current stock price of $6.19.

The company recently put out a Press Release about the partial redemption of their 6% convertible debentures. The company also put out a Press Release about their third quarterly results for 2016. There is a recent technical analysis of this company on Wall Street Confidential. Some analysts said positive things about this company at The Cerbat Gem . Most analysts are positive about this company at Stock Chase.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be PFB Corp. (TSX-PFB, OTC-PFBOF)... learn more on Friday, November 25, 2016around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about the Five Year Rule... learn more on Thursday, November 24, 2016around 5 pm.

IBI Group Inc. is an international, multi-disciplinary provider of a range of professional services focused on the physical development of cities. The Company through IBI Group provides professional services, including planning, design, implementation, analysis of operations and other consulting services in relation to four main areas of development (urban land, building facilities, transportation networks and systems technology.) Its web site is here IBI Group Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, November 21, 2016

Johnson and Johnson

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price reasonable to expensive. On an historical basis the stock price seems cheap to reasonable. However, comparing to values over the past 10 years the stock is reasonable, but above the median. See my spreadsheet on Johnson and Johnson.

I do not own this stock of Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ), but I used to. As Canadians, we are told we should be buying US stocks for our portfolio. It is often recommended that we have at least 25% of our portfolio in US stocks. I have never followed this, although I have tried dipping into the US market, but I have never made any money there. I bought some of this stock in June 2005 and realized a year later, in June of 2006 that it was going nowhere for me and sold. I lost almost 17% of my investment. When I bought in 2005, all the analysts were saying that it was a good buy at that time.

Since this is a US dividend growth stock, dividends payments will vary with the exchange rate and so as a Canadian you will never know exactly what dividends you will receive. Over the past 5 and 10 years dividends have grown at 6.9% and 8.8% per year in US$. Over the past 5 and 10 years the dividends have grown at 14.2% and 10.7% in CDN$. At different time periods this will be different.

The dividends are moderate as are the dividend increases. The current dividend yield is 2.78%. The historical median dividend yield is 2.18%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.12%. The 10 year median dividend yield is 3.06%.

For the 5 year periods ending in December 2014 and 2015, the total return has been good for Canadian investors in the stock with total return at 15.4% and 21.5% per year. For Canadians in the 5 year periods ending in December 2001 and 2002 Total Return was also good at 24.83% and 14.26%, respectively. However, the 5 year periods ending in December 2003 to 2011 the total return per year were negative or very low. This is a 9 year period.

If you had held this stock for 5, 10 or 15 year periods and paid a median price, you would be earning a dividend yield 5.02%, 5% or 6.2% per year on your original investment. If dividend growth continues at 6.9% per year over the next 5, 10 or 15 year periods you could be earning a dividend yield of 3.89%, 5.43% or 7.58% based on today's stock price of $ $114.91.

This stock has very good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 2.17 with a 5 year median of 2.20. The Debt Ratio is 2.14 with a 5 year median of 2.14. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2015 are 1.88 and 0.88 with 5 year median values of the same.

Growth over the past 5 and 10 years has been low to moderate. The Revenue per Share growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 2.5% and 4.6% per year. The EPS growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 2.8% and 4.7% per year. The CFPS growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 0.7% and 4.7% per year. This is lower growth than the stock price growth with capital gains at 10.7% and 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.12, 17.45 and 19.41. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.33, 17.22 and 18.82. The historical ratios are 16.32, 18.09 and 19.93. The current P/E Ratio is 19.22 based on a current stock price of $114.91 and 2016 EPS estimate of $5.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. It is getting close to expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $59.61. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 1.58 and 1.80. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.93 based on a stock price of $114.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.71. The current P/B Ratio is 4.35 a values some 17% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $114.91 and current BVPS of $26.41. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. It is getting close to expensive.

The current dividend yield is 2.78% based on dividends of $3.20 and a stock price of $114.91. The historical median Dividend yield is 2.18% a value some 27.7% lower. This suggests that the stock price is cheap on a historical basis. The 10 year median dividend yield is higher at 3.06%, a value some 9% higher than today dividend yield. On a 10 year basis, today stock is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. There are more Holds than Buys, but the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $126.53. This implies a total return of $12.90% with 10.11% from capital gains and 2.78% from dividends.

This associated press release in the Toronto Star talks about some women winning suit against Johnson and Johnson over the use of talcum power. There are different opinions about the use of talcum powder and unfortunately being in health care industry can include being suited. The blogger Income Investor really likes this stock. Todd Campbell of TMFEB Capital puts in a good word for this stock on Motley Fool. Alessandro Pasetti on Seeking Alpha puts in a cautious word on this company because a federal judge in Boston invalidated a key patent on Johnson & Johnson's blockbuster arthritis drug Remicade.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be IBI Group Inc. (TSX-IBG, OTC-IBIBF)... learn more on Wednesday, November 23, 2016 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Failed Stocks... learn more on Tuesday, November 22, 2016 around 5 pm.

Johnson & Johnson is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a broad range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world. The company's worldwide business is divided into three segments: Consumer; Pharmaceutical; and Professional. Its web site is here Johnson and Johnson.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, November 18, 2016

Cenovus Energy Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Relatively cheap? Resource stocks tend to go up and down and if you want to make money you have buy them when they are down. See my spreadsheet on Cenovus Energy Inc.

I do not own this stock of Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE). This is another stock that was talked about at the 2010 Money Show in Toronto. There were those who liked oil companies and they mentioned both Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU) and Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE). This company was split off from EnCana (TSX-ECA) in 2009. I was also following Alberta Energy Co. (TSX-AEC) into EnCana.

Dividends have been cut. They were cut by 40% in 2015 and then another 69% in 2016, this year. This is hardly surprising as all oil companies are not doing well. The current dividend is low at 1.01% based son dividends of $.20 and a stock price of $19.81.

If you bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago, your dividend yield on your original stock price if a median price is 0.58%, 0.76% and 1.90%. So having bought it 5 or 10 years ago, the dividend yield on your original price is lower than buying today. However, if you bought this stock 5, 10 or 15 years ago, dividends paid would have covered 11.5%, 29.8% or 81% of your original stock price if you paid a median price.

Even at today’s low dividend analysts do not think that dividends will be covered by EPS until 2018. It is expected that by the end of 2016 dividends paid over the past 5 years will be 124% of EPS over the past 5 years.

For this stock, the stock price is falling further than Revenues or Cash Flow are falling. Capital loss over the past 5 and 10 years is at 12.06% and 3.70% per year. Over the say time period Revenue per share is down by 1.4% per year over the past 5 years, but up by 5.11% per year over the past 10 years. Cash Flow per share is down by 8.8% over the past 5 years which is not as fast as capital loss of the stock price. However, the CFPS has fallen further over the past 10 years with decline in CFPS at 8.3% per year over the past 10 years.

The Liquidity Ratio is generally low on this company, but it has been rising lately. The Liquidity Ratio for 2015 is 3.48. The one for the end of the third quarter of 2016 is still high at 3.10. This is a good sign that they are ensuring a good Liquidity Ratio when times are bad. It will help them through a rough patch.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.23, 27.54 and 34.12. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.19, 23.25 and 27.17. The historical ratios are 14.77, 17.58 and 20.40. We cannot do any testing of 2016 P/E Ratio as the EPS is negative and is expected to be very low in 2017.

I get a Graham Price of $16.36 using in the formula the last 3 earnings rather than the 2016 estimate. I cannot use a negative EPS in this formula. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are this basis are 0.94, 1.20 and 1.43. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.21 based on a stock price of $19.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.13. The current P/B Ratio is 1.44 a values some 32% lower. The current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $13.72 and a stock price of $19.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This test maybe the best test to use. It is not based on estimates and is based on very recent values.

I cannot do any testing on Dividend Yield as I normally do because of the recent dividend cuts. However, the last time they cut the dividends the Dividend Yield got to a median of 0.79% (2004). The current dividend yield of 1.01% is some 27.8% higher. This might be suggestive of a current relatively cheap stock price.

The 10 year P/S Ratio is 1.61. The current P/S Ratio is 1.38 based on 2016 Revenue estimates of $11958M and $14.35 Revenue per Share. The current P/S Ratio is some 14% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. There are more Hold recommendations that Buy recommendations and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $22.43. This implies a total return of 14.245 with 13.23% from capital gains and 1.01% from dividends.

Judy McKinnon talks on Wall Street Journal about the third quarter results including an earnings loss. Stock Talk Staff talks about some technical analysis on this stock at Stock Talk Daily. See what views analysts have of this stock at Stock Chase. One thinks it is overvalued.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see that report here.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. Redone (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ)... learn more on Monday, November 21, 2016 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Bonobo and the Atheist by Frans de Waal learn more...

Cenovus Energy Inc. is an integrated oil company. The Company's operations include enhanced oil recovery (EOR) properties and established crude oil and natural gas production in Alberta and Saskatchewan. It also has ownership interests in two refineries in Illinois and Texas, United States. Its web site is here Cenovus Energy Inc.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. Redone

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Still rather expensive. I was looking again at this stock for my investment club. The stock has gone down some from September. When I looked then it was $68.26 and now it is some 7% lower at $63.38. See my spreadsheet on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. .

I do not own this stock of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF), but I used to. In 2004 I bought this stock as it had a good reputation and my spreadsheet showed I should do well with it. I bought more of this stock in 2006 as it had a good past record and had started to pay a dividend. I sold the stock in my trading account in 2007 as I was raising mortgage money and this stock had gone down so was cheap, tax wise, to sell. In 2013, I sold the stock in my Pension account as it had the lowest dividend yield and I had to raise money in this account because of yearly withdrawals.

They started to pay a dividend in 2006. The dividends are very low with good growth. The current dividend is 0.56%. The historical median dividend yield is 0.60%. The historical high is 1.31%. Mind here historical means 10 years of dividends. The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 9 years was 32.5% and 23.5% per year. I generally do not buy stocks with dividends less than 1% because it takes so long to get to a really good dividend yield on your original stock purchase.

The dividends are very affordable with the 2016 Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS at 9.2% and the CFPS at 6.1%. The last dividend increase was this year for 14.8%. However, they often increase the dividend more than once a year. Last year total dividend increase was 40%. (Note that the financial year for this company ends around the end of April each year.)

This stock reports in US$. Growth is good for Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow. There is little change in outstanding shares. Revenue grew at 12.5% and 12.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS grew at 26.3% and 21% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Value grew at 22.8% and 18.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. All this growth is in US$.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.48, 15.96 and 19.85. The 10 year corresponding values are 12.26, 15.9 and 19.64. The historical values are 12.50, 17.40 and 20.80. They are remarkable similar. The current P/E Ratio is 20.36 based on a stock price of $63.38 and 2017 EPS estimate of $3.11 CDN$ ($2.31 US$). This suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $29.69. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.13, 1.47 and 1.81. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.13 based on a stock price of $63.38. This suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.88. The current P/B Ratio is 5.03 based on BVPS of $12.14 and a stock price of $63.38. The current P/B Ratio is some 75% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The historical median dividend yield is 0.60%. The current dividend at 0.49% is based on dividends of $0.31 and a stock price of $63.38. The current dividend is some 18.5% lower than the historical median. This suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but below the median. This is a change from September when the current dividend was at 0.45% and was some 24% below the historical median and therefore relatively expensive

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Underperform. The vast majority of the recommendations are a Buy. This has not changed from September. When I looked in September the 12 months stock price is $78.38 CDN$ ($60.30 US$). This implied a total return of $15.29% with 14.83% from capital gains and 0.45% from dividends. The 12 month stock price is now $81.48 ($60.47 US$) and this implies a total return in CDN$ of 29.05% with 28.56% from capital gains and 0.49% from dividends. The higher gain is caused by the lower stock price and the higher currency exchange rate.

Will Ashworth of Motley Fool talks about this company buying CST Brands Inc. They have also bought 53 Cracker Barrel locations. Unfortunately, Canadian companies buying American companies have not always worked to our benefit. Jared Coughlin on Community Financial News talks about Desjardins' increasing their target price. See what analysts are saying at Stock Chase.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Keyera Corp. (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will be Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE)... learn more on Friday, November 18, 2016 around 5 pm

Today on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Tom Sosnoff... learn more .

Couche-Tard is the largest convenience store operator in North America with over 4,600 company-operated stores. In Europe, with over 1,600 company-operated sites, Couche-Tard is a leader in c-store and road transportation fuel in Scandinavian and the Baltic States, with a growing presence in Poland. Its web site is here Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. .

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Keyera Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Not cheap. I think that the stock price is on the high side and the stock ratios are too high for a utility stock. I would also prefer to see them get the dividends better in line with the EPS. The company has a lot of good features; it is just priced too high for my liking. When interest rates again raise dividend paying utilities may not be so sought after. See my spreadsheet on Keyera Corp.

I do not own this stock of Keyera Corp. (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. The title of the article in Investor's Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. Jennifer is now a Portfolio Manager for Manulife Asset Management Limited. Some of the stocks pointed out where good stocks, some not so much.

This used to be an Income Trust company. They did not cut the dividends in changing to a corporation; they just held the dividend steady for one year. However, as a result they are still payout out more in dividends than they earn. They are still judging their payouts by Distributable Cash (really AFFO). According to that the payout is 49.2%.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2015 for EPS is 117.4% with a 5 year median also of 117.4%. The DPR for CFPS for 2015 is 46.5% with a 5 year median of 49.5%. Over the past 5 years they have paid out 108% of the EPS in dividends.

The current Dividend Yield is good with moderate dividend growth. The current dividend yield is 4.25% based on a stock price of $37.41 and Dividends of $1.59. The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 3.96%. As an Income Trust, the Dividend Yields were higher in the past. The historical high is 12%. The historical median is 6.02%. Dividends have only been paid for 13 years. The company went public in 2003.

The dividends have grown at 9.2% and 8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was for 6% and it occurred this year. If this company was bought 5 or 10 years ago, Dividend Yield on the original stock price if at a median price would be 7.3% and 15.2%. If this company was bought 5 or 10 years ago, Dividends would have paid 30% and 108% of the original stock price if a median price was paid for the stock.

The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.87 in 2015. The 5 year median Liquidity Ratio is 1.36. If you add in cash flow after dividends the Liquidity Ratio would be 1.59. So the company is counting on cash flow to cover current liabilities. The problem with low Liquidity Ratios is that it can make the company vulnerable, especially in bad times. The Debt Ratio is also low at 1.48 in 2015. The 5 year median ratio is also 1.48. I prefer both these ratios to be 1.50 for safety's sake.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 22.83, 29.21 and 34.19. The corresponding 10 year values are 20.02, 24.08 and 28.14. The 13 year values are 18.04, 22.18 and 26.32. It would seem that stock price has been rising because of higher P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 25.45 based on a stock price of $37.41 and 2016 EPS estimate of $2.55. If you use the 10 year values, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. However, I think that the P/E Ratios are rather high for a utility stock.

I get a Graham Price of $18.81. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.75, 2.11 and 2.47. Here again I thing that the ratios are quite high for a utility stock. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.99 based on a stock price of $37.41. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. On an absolute basis, a ratio of 1.99 is high, especially for a utility stock.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 3.27. The current P/B Ratio is 3.50 a value some 7.1% higher. This current P/B Ratio is based on BVPS of $10.69 and a stock price of $37.41. Here again I think that the ratio is quite high. On a relative basis the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 1.12. The current P/S Ratio is 2.61 based on 2016 Revenue estimates of $2461M, Revenue per share at $14.33 and a stock price of $37.41. The current P/S Ratio is some 132% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratios is 12.48. The current P/CF Ratio is 12.90, a value some 3.5% higher. The current P/CF Ratio is based on 2016 CFPS estimate of $2.90 and a stock price of $37.41. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy with Hold a close second. The consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price is $44.43. This implies a total return of 23.025 with 18.77% from capital gains and 4.25% from dividends based on a current price of $37.41.

The Dividend Channel via Forbes talk about their approval of this stock and its good dividends. On November 8, 2016, Keyera put out a News Wire about their recent third quarter. Donnie Miller on Nov 15th, on Baseball News Source talked about Scotiabank reissued their sector perform rating. He also talked about other recommendations for this company. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase.

I will have only one entry for this stock this year. However, I did a more complete report on this company in 2015 and you can see those reports here and here.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Dollarama Inc. (TSX-DOL, OTC-DLMAF)... learn more . The next stock I will write about will Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE)... learn more on Friday, November 18, 2016 around 5 pm.

Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2016 - Tom Sosnoff... learn more on November 17, 2016 around 5 pm. Also on this blog a will write about will Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. Redone (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF)... learn more on Friday, November 17, 2016 around 5 pm.

Keyera provides essential services and products to oil and gas producers in western Canada, and markets related natural gas liquids (NGLs) throughout North America. Its web site is here Keyera Corp.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.