Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is not really currently a dividend paying stock because the dividend is so low at just 0.16%. The company is not worth buying for its current dividend. If you use the dividend yield test, you would get a reasonable stock price, but because the dividends are so low, you have to wonder if this test is valid. I note that the analysts are giving recommendations from Strong Buy to Underperform. I am going with a stock price that is probably on the expensive side.
I do not own this stock of GFL Environmental Inc (TSX-GFL, NYSE-GFL). GFL Environmental (TSX-GFL) is small, pays dividend and was talked about by Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company is reporting in US$, Dividends are in US$ and the estimates are in CDN$.
Net Income this year includes selling discontinued operations, shows a high income for 2025, which would mean a big drop in Net Income for following years. You can see from the chart that Revenue, AEPS and Cash Flow has been growing nicely. In the chart below, I am showing 5 and mostly 7 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the second quarter in 2026 and expected growth over this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth | 57.66% | 9.53% | 5.39% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 341.18% | 34.56% | 13.33% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 120.96% | 17.18% | -1921.19% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 162.05% | 21.25% | 8.02% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 62.01% | 10.13% | 11.70% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 58.88% | 9.70% | -2.31% | <-12 mths |
| 7 | Revenue Growth | 257.11% | 19.94% | 13.53% | <-this year |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 341.18% | 34.56% | 10.67% | <-this year |
| 7 | Net Income Growth | 143.73% | 13.57% | -241.34% | <-this year |
| 7 | Cash Flow Growth | 4376.19% | 72.13% | 26.35% | <-this year |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 62.01% | 10.13% | -5.95% | <-this year |
| 6 | Stock Price Growth | 163.21% | 17.50% | -2.31% | <-this year |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at just 0.16%. They have only been paying dividends for 6 years and the 5 year median dividend yield is just 0.14%. The dividend growth is moderate (between 8% and 14% per year) at 8.5% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2026 and it was for 9.7%.
The dividends are low, so if you buy this stock what sort of dividends would you get in the future? This chart is an attempt to show this. If dividends continue to increase by 8.52% as they have in the past 5 years, what you would get in dividends in 5, 10 and 15 years is shown in the Dividends Paid (Div Pd) column. The next column shows what your yield on the current stock price of $41.77 would be. The last column shows the percentage of your stock’s price would be covered by dividends in 5, 10 and 15 years. Dividends are paid in US$ and this chart is using US$.
| Div Pd | Div Yield | Years | At IRR | Div Cov |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.10 | 0.24% | 5 | 8.52% | 0.96% |
| $0.15 | 0.37% | 10 | 8.52% | 2.16% |
| $0.23 | 0.55% | 15 | 8.52% | 3.97% |
In Canadian dollars turns the results would be as shown below. Our Canadian currency is low at the present time and I am using current currency exchange rates. If dividends continue to increase by 10.13% as they have in the past 5 years, what you would get in dividends in 5, 10 and 15 years is shown in the Dividends Paid (Div Pd) column. The next column shows what your yield on the current stock price of $57.95 would be. The last column shows the percentage of your stock’s price would be covered by dividends in 5, 10 and 15 years. Dividends are paid in US$ and this chart is using CDN$.
| Div Pd | Div Yield | Years | At IRR | Div Cov |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.15 | 0.26% | 5 | 10.13% | 1.00% |
| $0.25 | 0.43% | 10 | 10.13% | 2.35% |
| $0.40 | 0.69% | 15 | 10.13% | 4.53% |
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are very good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is very good at 0.83% with 5 year coverage at 7.38%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is very good at 11% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is very good at 1.6% with 5 year coverage at 1.5%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is very good at 13% with 5 year coverage at 10%.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 0.83% | 7.38% |
| AEPS | 11.00% | 10.67% |
| CFPS | 1.61% | 1.53% |
| FCF | 13.38% | 10.49% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.34 and currently at 0.45. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is too low at 0.58 and 0.75 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still low at 1.23 and currently fine at 1.60. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.63 and 1.54 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are fine at 2.64 and 1.62 and currently at 2.93 and 1.90.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| Intang/GW | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| Liquidity | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.23 | 1.60 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.63 | 1.54 |
| Leverage | 2.64 | 2.93 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.62 | 1.90 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 6 to the end of 2025 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 10.13% | 9.86% | 9.70% | 0.15% |
| 2019 | 6 | 17.69% | 17.50% | 0.19% |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 6 to the end of 2025 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 8.52% | 8.57% | 8.42% | 0.15% |
| 2019 | 6 | 17.46% | 17.28% | 0.19% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and useless. The corresponding 7 year ratios are negative and useless. The current ratio is negative and useless also.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 66.17, 85.27 and 94.26. The corresponding 6 year ratios are 71.41, 85.36 and 99.32. I do not have corresponding historical ratios. The current ratio is 70.17 based on AEPS estimate for 2026 of $0.60 and a stock price of $41.77. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 6 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. A problem is that these are very high ratios. This testing is in US$.
I get a Graham Price of $19.25. The 6-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.38, 3.26 and 3.80. The current ratio is 3.01 based on a stock price of $57.95. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 6 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 7-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.63. The current ratio is 2.94 based on a Book Value of $5,278M, Book Value per Share at $14.23 and a stock price of $41.77. The current ratio is 12% above the 7 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.
I get a 7-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 18.07. The current ratio is 12.99 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $3.21, Cash Flow of $1,193M and a stock price of $41.77. The current ratio is 28% below the 7 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.
I get a 6 year and historical median dividend yield of 0.14%. The current dividend yield is 0.16% based on dividends of $0.0676 and a stock price of $41.77. The current dividend yield is 16% above the 6 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.
The 7-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.37. The current ratio is 2.88 based Revenue estimate for 2026 of $5,386.9M, Revenue per Share of $14.52 and a stock price of $41.77. The current ratio is 22% above the 7 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield test says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. The reasonable stock price from dividend yield testing it is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. If you use the 6 year median dividend yield test only, then the stock price is reasonable. But the dividends are so low you have to wonder if there would be any influence on the company. The rest of the testing goes from cheap to reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (10), Buy (5), Hold (3) and Underperform (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $71.18 with a high of $90.00 and a low of $57.00. The consensus stock price of $71.18 implies a total return of 22.99% with 22.83% from capital gains and 0.16% from dividends.
Analyst on Stock Chase either love (Buy) or Hate (Do Not Buy) this stock. These recommendations are about half and half. Negative comments are that this stock is riskier and of lower-quality that other stocks in this space. Stock Chase gives this stock 3.5 stars out of 5. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool says to buy before a recovery can happen. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says that the company will acquire Secure Waste Infrastructure (TSX-SES). The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter results for 2025. The company put out a Press Release about their second quarter results for 2026.
Guru Focus via Yahoo Finance put out an interesting article on this stock in July 2026 giving the negative and positive points of this company. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street gives no warnings out on this stock.
GFL Environmental Inc is an environmental services company. Its offerings include non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure, soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. The company's geographical segments are Canada and the United States. The company derives the majority of its revenue from the United States. Its web site is here GFL Environmental Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BDGIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF) ... learn more on Monday, August 17, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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