Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock has not done well over the past 5 years. However, analysts do see it recovering this year. I would think that buying this stock is taking a big risk about its recovery. Revenue is going up, but personally I would like to see earnings go up also to suggest that this stock is a buy. It is testing as cheap.
I do not own this stock of Cargojet Inc (TSX-CJT, OTC-CGJTF). The airline is not only resilient in the face of this unprecedented socio-economic crisis, but it is also in a spot to thrive, as demand for its overnight shipping services is likely to remain stable amid this pandemic. See Motley Fool article. Cargojet Inc (CJT) operates a domestic overnight air cargo co-load network between fourteen Canadian cities. The company also provides dedicated aircraft to customers on an Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance (ACMI) basis, operating between points in Canada and the USA. As well, the company operates scheduled international routes for multiple cargo customers between the USA and Bermuda. Small cap with dividends in 1% range.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock hit a high 5 years ago and the stock price has been going down ever since. The Revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years, and so have earnings. Cash Flow has varied. In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2026 and expected growth over this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth | 48.50% | 8.23% | 0.48% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 179.04% | 22.78% | -22.92% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 191.34% | 23.85% | -54.74% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | -19.82% | -4.32% | 2.17% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 49.57% | 8.39% | 7.50% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | -60.93% | -17.13% | -5.34% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | 243.49% | 13.13% | 9.50% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | 339.25% | 15.95% | -21.80% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 545.56% | 20.50% | 32.29% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 1067.16% | 27.85% | 73.31% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | 134.74% | 8.91% | 11.57% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | 225.22% | 12.52% | 48.92% | <-this year |
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,006.59 you would have bought 39 shares at $25.81 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $389.20 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,273.66. Your total return would have been $3,662.86. This would be a total return of 14.76% per year with 12.52% from capital gain and 2.24% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25.81 | $1,006.59 | 39 | 10 | $389.20 | $3,273.66 | $3,662.86 |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.94%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also low at 1.07% and 1.08%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.45%. The historical median dividend yield is higher because this stock started out as an income trust with in the high dividend yield category of 7% and above. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% per year) at 8.4% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2026 and it was for 10.00%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 27% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 7% with 5 year coverage at 6%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is non-calculable due to negative FCF. FCF varies in 2025 from a negative $101.5M to $11.1M. I am using the negative $101.51 value.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 26.72% | 17.61% |
| AEPS | 31.46% | 28.75% |
| CFPS | 6.50% | 6.28% |
| FCF | -15.76% | -20.85% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is fine at 0.65 and currently at 0.63. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is low at 1.23 and 0.91 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.34 and currently at 2.87. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.53 and 1.56 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are fine at 2.87 and 1.87 and currently at 2.78 and 1.78.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| Intang/GW | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Liquidity | 1.23 | 0.91 |
| Liq. + CF | 2.34 | 2.87 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.53 | 1.56 |
| Leverage | 2.87 | 2.78 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.87 | 1.78 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 8.39% | -16.28% | -17.13% | 0.86% |
| 2015 | 10 | 8.91% | 14.76% | 12.52% | 2.24% |
| 2010 | 15 | 7.36% | 20.25% | 16.51% | 3.73% |
| 2005 | 20 | 3.10% | 15.59% | 11.45% | 4.14% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.90, 18.08 and 23.28. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.73, 22.45 and 27.31. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.18, 17.05 and 19.79. The current ratio is 11.66 based on a stock price of $79.46 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $6.81. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.09, 21.86 and 28.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 20.67, 24.51 and 33.46. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.49, 20.69 and 26.83. The current ratio is 22.83 based on a stock price of $79.46 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $3.48. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $62.44. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.81, 2.27 and 2.94. The current ratio is 1.27 based on a stock price of $79.46. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.68. The current ratio is 1.60 based on Book Value of $741.9M, Book Value per Share of $49.80 and a stock price of $79.46. The current ratio is 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.49. The current ratio is 2.91 based on a Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $27.29, Cash Flow of $406.6M and a stock price of $79.46. The current ratio is 66% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. (But I wonder about this estimate as it is an increase of 73% over the 2025 value, but there have been big increases and decreased in the cash flow in the past.)
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.45%. The current dividend yield is 1.94% based on dividend of $1.54 and a stock price of $79.46. This dividend yield is 21% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. (This stock used to be an income trust and these company often had quite high dividend yields.)
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.08%. The current dividend yield is 1.94% based on dividend of $1.54 and a stock price of $79.46. This dividend yield is 79% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.09. The current ratio is 1.09 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $1,087M, Revenue per Share of $72.96 and a stock price of $79.46. The current ratio 48% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The 10 year median dividend yield test says so and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The majority of the tests show the stock price as either cheap or reasonable.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (4) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $125.00 with a high of $140.00 and a low of $90.00. The 12 month consensus of $125.00 implies a total return of 59.25% with 57.31% from capital gains and 1.94% from dividends based on a current stock price of $79.46.
On Stock Chase some analysts like this stock. One analyst says he is looking for an exit point and says the break out point will be over $88.00. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says that the stock jumped (in August) due to strong earnings. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says that the company has US dollar-linked contracts that could help if Loonie stays weak. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2025 results. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their second quarter results for 2026.
Guru Focus via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and talks about it positive and negative points. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance does a short review of this stock. It gives a fair value of $113.21. Simply Wall Street has two warnings on this stock of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; and profit margins (4.5%) are lower than last year (14.2%).
Cargojet Inc operates a domestic air cargo co-load network between several Canadian cities. The company also provides dedicated aircraft to customers on an Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance basis, operating between points in Canada, the USA, South America, Europe, and Asia. In addition, it operates scheduled international routes for multiple cargo customers between the USA and Bermuda, between Canada, the UK, and Germany, between Canada and Asia, and between Canada and Mexico. Its web site is here Cargojet Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Accord Financial Corp (TSX-ACD, OTC-ACCFF) ... learn more on Monday, September 7, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Beyond the Trees by Adam Shoalts learn more...
