Wednesday, August 17, 2022

GFL Environmental Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. I think that the stock might be expensive currently. Debt Ratios are need improving. . Dividend yields are so low, you wonder about it being a dividend stock. See my spreadsheet on GFL Environmental Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think the current price might be on the expensive side. There is a big divergence of opinion on this stock. Even in my investment club, one person thought it was a great stock and another did not like it at all because it is just doing acquisition. Personally, for me to like this stock, I would like to see it make some money. The Adjusted EPS does imply that it is. I am adding this stock to the list of stocks that I follow. Love it or hate it, it will be interesting to see where it goes.

I do not own this stock of GFL Environmental Inc (TSX-GFL, NYSE-GFL). GFL Environmental (TSX:GFL) is small, pays dividend and talked about by Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this stock came on TSX in March 2020. It pays a dividend, but the dividend is so low, you wonder about it being a dividend paying stock at all. It is growing fast, but only by acquisitions.

If you had invested in this company in March 2020, when it was first issued, for $1,008.00 you would have bought 45 shares at $22.40 per share. In December 2021, after 2 years you would have received $49.23 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,152.35. Your total return would have been $21,366.56.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$22.40 $1,008.00 45 2 $49.23 $2,152.35 $2,201.58

The dividend yields are very low with dividend growth moderate. The dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 0.16%. This is a very low yield. The company has increased the dividends twice, once in 2022 (for 10%) and once in 2023 for 9.1%. The dividend increases are in the moderate area (8% to 14% ranges).

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are low, so very good. I cannot calculate the DPR for EPS because this company has yet to make a profit. There is Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The DPR for AEPS for 2021 is 13%. Dividends so far been paid only in 2020 to 2022. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2021 is 2.13%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2021 is 2.8%.

Debt Ratios are need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.44. It has been higher in the past and for the Second Quarter of 2022 it is higher at 0.61. This is both because of higher debt and low stock price. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 0.98 and that is low. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is 1.56. The current Liquidity Ratio is lower at 0.63. If you had in cash flow after dividends it is still low at 1.15. I prefer this ratio be 1.50. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is 1.46. I also prefer this ratio to be 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are too high at 3.18 and 2.18. I prefer them to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for 2 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 2 10.00% 46.30% 46.13% 0.17%

The Total Return per year is shown below for 2 to the end of 2021 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 10.00% 50.28% 50.10% 0.18%

The 2-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are all negative and so unusable.

We have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The P/AEPS P/E 2-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios 87.90, 128.94 and 169.98. The current P/AEPS ratio is 52.26 based on AEPS estimate for 2022 of $0.57 and a stock price of $29.54. The current ratio is below the 2 year low ratio. By this measure the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get similar results with CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $16.91 (based on AEPS). The 2-year low, median, and high median ratios are 2.59, 3.56 and 4.53. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.34 based on a stock price of $37.97. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 2 year low ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in CDN$/

I get a 3-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.66. The current P/B Ratio is 2.32 based on a stock price of $37.97, Book Value of $4,824M, and Book Value per Share of $12.71. The current ratio is 40% above the 3 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get similar results with CDN$.

I get a 3-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 18.45. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.44 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $3.32, Cash Flow of 1,260M and a stock price of $29.54. The current ratio is 38% below the 3 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 2-year median dividend yield of 0.14%. The current yield is 0.16% based on dividends of $0.05 and a stock price of $29.54. The current dividend yield is 16% above the 2 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in US$. In CDN$ you get a cheap price, but dividends are paid in US$.

The 3-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.12. The current P/S Ratio is 2.20 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $5,093M ($6,488M CDN$) and a stock price of $29.54. The current ratio is 96% above the 2 year median P/S Ratio. By this measure the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get similar results with CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. I have little data to go on. The dividend yield test says cheap, but this is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The stock price has increased a lot since it started. This is a solid waste management business, not a tech stock. So, I am going with expensive. Of course, I can be completely wrong.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (8), Hold (1), and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $49.00. This implies a total return of 29.21% with 29.05% from capital gains and 0.16% from dividends.

All the analysts rate this stock on Stock Chase as Do Not Buy. They say that it is struggling to make a profit and it is overpriced. Stock Chase gives this stock a rating of 3 stars out of 5. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool says it is a good defensive stock to buy. The company has put out a Press Release for their fourth quarter results. The company has put out a Press Release on their second quarter of 2022 results. A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance says this company is undervalued and worth $63.49 CDN$. Simply Wall Street gives two warnings of significant insider selling over the past 3 months and shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

GFL Environmental Inc. provides environmental services principally in North America. It offers non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure & soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. Its web site is here GFL Environmental Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BADFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF) ... learn more on Friday, August 19, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Buy Canadian Banks .... learn more on Thursday, August 18, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, August 15, 2022

Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently too high, but are expected to drop. See my spreadsheet on Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable. It has mainly delivered good returns in both capital gains and dividends for its shareholders. For people who have held this stock for 15 years, they are getting 9.3% on their original investment. If the company keeps up the current increases from todays yield, investor could be getting 8.9% return on today’s purchase ($32.45). (Note that 15 years ago, yields were higher because the company was an income trust.)

I do not own this stock of Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BADFF). I started to follow this stock after reading a couple of articles in February 2012 in the G&M that talked about the company. The first article looked at what the pros who manage small-cap funds are buying. Badger was one of 10 stocks mentioned and it looked like an interesting stock. It is a dividend paying small cap. The second article looked at why stocks might appeal to a conservative investor looking for income.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that revenue was up only slightly, the Cost of Sales increased a lot. Last year the ratio of the Cost of Sales to Revenue was a ratio of 0.71 and this year the ratio was 0.79. The Revenue increased by 1.8%, but Cost of Sales was up 14%. Therefore, there is an earning loss.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,005.56 you would have bought 138 shares at $7.29 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $622.13 in dividends. The stock would be worth $4,387.02. Your total return would have been $5,009.15.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$7.29 $1,005.56 138 10 $622.13 $4,387.02 $5,009.15

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 2.07%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.65% and 1.58%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate at 2.98%. The dividend growth is good (8% to 14% ranges) at 10.3% per year for the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 4.76% in 2022 and dividends payments have changed from monthly to quarterly. Because of the timing of the change to quarterly, dividends are lower in 2022, but if you look at when dividends are declared, there really is no dip in dividends.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently too high, but are expected to drop. The DPR for 2021 is negative. The 5 year coverage is 48%. The DPR for 2022 is expected to be around 60% and around 43% in 2023. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2021 is 30% with 5 year coverage at 15%. The DPR for 2021 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) 234% with 5 year coverage at 87%. This is expected to drop to 87% in 2022.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.11 and is low and good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 1.42 which is a little low, but the current one is 1.77 and the 5 year median is 1.67. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is 1.86 and this is good. The Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.16 and 1.16.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 10.32% 1.49% -0.19% 1.69%
2011 10 6.03% 19.11% 15.87% 3.24%
2006 15 2.89% 17.40% 13.11% 4.29%
2001 20 7.51% 30.31% 20.12% 10.19%
1997 24 11.21% 9.02% 2.19%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.42, 16.39 and 20.35. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.87, 20.57 and 27.81. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.25, 11.39 and 14.26. The current P/E Ratio is 30.61 based on a stock price of $32.45 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $1.06. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $12.13. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.47, 1.99 and 2.68. The current ratio is 2.86 based on a stock price of $32.45. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.44. The current P/B Ratio is 5.26 based on a Book Value of $212.5M, Book Value per Share of $6.16 and a stock price of $32.45. The current ratio is 53% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.33. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.54 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $3.08 and a stock price of $32.45. The current ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.98%. The current dividend yield is 2.03% based on a stock price of $32.45 and dividends of $0.66. The current dividend yield is 32% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.58%. The current dividend yield is 2.03% based on a stock price of $32.45 and dividends of $0.66. The current dividend yield is 29% above the 10 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.18. The current P/S Ratio is 1.57 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $712M, Revenue per Share of $19.64 and a stock price of $32.45. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable to cheap. The 10 year dividend yield test and the P/S Ratio tests say that the stock price is cheap and these are the best tests. I caution on saying it is cheap, because of the other tests that say the stock price is expensive, like to P/B Ratio and the P/GP Ratio test.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1), Hold (3) and Sell (1). This is quite a wide range. The consensus would be a Hold because of the Sell rating. The 12 month stock price consensus us $35.28. This implies a total return of $1.76% with 8.72% from capital gains and 2.03% from dividends.

The only entry on Stock Chase is from 5i Research and they say sell. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense list. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool says this battered stock could be ready for a rebound. The company announces its fourth quarter results on Newswire. The company announces its first quarterly results in a News Release.

Simply Wall Street has a report on Yahoo Finance about this stock. Simply Wall Street has two risk warnings of interest payments are not well covered by earnings and dividend of 2.04% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years. They also report on recent insider buying, which they like.

Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd is North America's provider of non-destructive excavating services. Its key technology is the Badger Hydrovac, which is used primarily for safe excavation around critical infrastructure and in congested underground conditions. Its web site is here Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Superior Plus Corp (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be GFL Environmental Inc (TSX-GFL, NYSE-GFL) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 17, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Three Oil Stocks .... learn more on Tuesday, August 16, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, August 12, 2022

Superior Plus Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. The stock price seems reasonable and below the median. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high, but are expected to fall. Debt Ratios need improving. See my spreadsheet on Superior Plus Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable. The dividend yield is good, but do not expect much in dividend increases. This company has been returning to shareholders a reasonable return, but most of the return is in dividends. I prefer stocks with a balance between growth and dividends in the total return.

I do not own this stock of Superior Plus Corp (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF). I started to follow this stock as it was an income trust company that was talked about in the Money Reporter from MPL Communications. This company changed to a corporation from Unit Trust (TSX-SPF.UN) in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company has been reporting Adjusted Operating Cash Flow (AOCF) and Adjusted Operating Cash Flow per Share. I have added this to my spreadsheet. The EPS estimate was $0.40. The EPS came in at $0.99. However, the good earnings were due to money from Discontinue Operations. The company said that EPS from Continuing Operations was a Loss of $0.04 compared with EPS from Continuing Operations of $0.29 of last year.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,000.50 you would have bought 174 shares at $5.75 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $1,191.90 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,262.00. Your total return would have been $3,453.90.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$5.75 $1,000.50 174 10 $1,191.90 $2,262.00 $3,453.90

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.38%. The 5 and 10 year dividend yields are also good at 6.15% and 6.07%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% and above) at 9.12%. This company was started as an income trust and become a corporation in 2009. That is why the historical dividend yield is so high. They reduced the dividend several times, but it has been flat since 2015. Income Trust company can afford to pay out more in dividends that corporations.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high, but are expected to fall. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 73% with 5 year coverage at 198%. Analysts expect the DPR for EPS to continue to all over the next few years. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 32% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is 119% with 5 year coverage at 74%. Analysts expect this DPR to be 222% in 2022 and then drop to $60% in 2023 and 40% in 2024.

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.63. (Prefer this to be 0.50 or less.) The Liquidity Ratio is low at 1.05. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is still low at 1.25. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.58. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2022 is 3.62 and 2.29. These are high and I prefer them to be below 3.00 and below 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 0.00% 5.99% 0.39% 5.61%
2011 10 -5.40% 17.14% 8.50% 8.64%
2006 15 -6.00% 11.11% 1.30% 9.81%
2001 20 -4.12% 8.71% -1.31% 10.02%
1996 25 -1.31% 10.93% -0.21% 11.14%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.94, 14.09 and 15.96. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.08, 14.19 and 16.30. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.60, 15.32 and 18.86. The current P/E Ratio is 35.25 based on a stock price of $11.28 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $0.32. The current ratio is between the above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Adjusted Operations Cash Flow (AOCF) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median P/AOCF Ratios are 5.64, 6.89 and 8.64. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.32, 7.59 and 8.59. The current P/AOCF Ratio is 6.56. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $6.62. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.01, 1.22 and 1.36. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.70 based on a stock price of $11.28. The current is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.30. The current P/B Ratio is 1.85 based on a stock price of $11.28, Book Value of $1073M and Book Value per Share of $6.09. The current P/B Ratio is 19.7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.35. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.07 based on a stock price of $11.28, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $1.71 and Cash Flow of $301M. The current ratio is 10% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 9.12%. The current dividend yield is 6.38% based on dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $11.28. The current dividend yield is 30% below the historical year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.07%. The current dividend yield is 6.38% based on dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $11.28. The current dividend yield is 5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.71. The current P/S Ratio is 0.58 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $3,396M, Revenue per Share of $16.35 and a stock price $11.28. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test says this. The difficulty with the dividend yield tests is that the dividends have been flat for some time, but the 10 year median dividend yield test says the stock price is reasonable. Several the other pricing tests say the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (5) and Hold (5). The current consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $13.50. This implies a total return of 26.06% with 19.68% from capital gains and 6.38% from dividends.

Some analysts on Stock Chase like this company and some do not. One analyst says not to expect dividend increases. Another says the company throws off tons of cash. Stock Chase gives this company 4 stars out of 5. Money Sense rates this company a C. Robin Brown on Motley Fool says buy for passive dividend income. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool says this is a good stock for a passive income portfolio. The company on Business Wire reports on their fourth quarter results . The company on Business Wire announces their results for the first quarter of 2022.

A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance says this company has a bad combination of high debt and low ROE. Simply Wall Street list 5 warnings for this stock of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 6.45% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years; large one-off items impacting financial results; profit margins (1.9%) are lower than last year (5.7%); and shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Superior Plus is a Canadian-based company that distributes energy and specialty chemicals. The company is organized into below business segments: Canadian propane distribution, and U.S. propane distribution. Its web site is here Superior Plus Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Evertz Technologies Ltd (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BADFF) ... learn more on Monday, August 15, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, August 10, 2022

Evertz Technologies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. The stock price is relatively cheap. Debt Ratios are good. Dividends have not been growing but the company has given some special dividend payments. Dividend Payout Ratios are higher than I like. See my spreadsheet on Evertz Technologies Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this small tech stock. The stock price is cheap. I am not buying any more as I believe I have enough of this company. I am holding on to my shares as I believe that I will do better in the future. Since it is a small cap, it is rather risky.

I own this stock of Evertz Technologies Ltd (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF). I came across an article in G&M about ET and it seemed a good dividend paying company. It has high dividends and is probably riskier than average. The company also has a large amount of insider ownership. The financial year ends April 30 each year, so I am looking at the financial year ending April 30, 2022.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed Revenue estimate for 2022 was $412M and it came in at 441M. EPS estimate for 2022 was $0.83 and it came in at $0.94. This is always a good sign.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,008.45 you would have bought 83 shares at $12.15 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $926.28 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,090.62. Your total return would have been $2,016.90.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$12.15 $1,008.45 83 10 $926.28 $1,090.62 $2,016.90

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth is flat. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.16%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.40% 4.28% and 3.42%. The current dividends have been flat since 2016, with a dip in the dividends in 2021. The company gave out a special dividend in 2022 and in 2020.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are better without the special dividends, but still a bit high. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 183% with 5 year coverage at 191%. If we exclude the special dividends granted in 2020 and 2022, the DPR for EPS for 2022 is 77% and with a 5 year coverage at 83%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 122% with 5 year coverage at 91%. If we exclude the Special dividends paid, the DPR for CFPS for 2022 is 51% with 5 year coverage at 58%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 87% with 5 year coverage at 81%.

Debt Ratios are good. As of 2022, the company has no Long Term Debt. Before 2022, the Long Term Debt was so low that the ratio was 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 1.97. The Debt Ratio is 2.25. The Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are 1.80 and 0.80.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 0.00% 1.99% -4.90% 6.89%
2011 10 4.58% 9.59% 0.79% 8.81%
2006 15 9.58% 5.53% -0.23% 5.76%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.47, 16.27 and 21.33. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.86, 17.23 and 20.26. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.47, 17.70 and 20.24. The current P/E Ratio is 17.01 based on a stock price of $13.95 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.82. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $7.48. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.49, 1.70 and 1.93. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.87 based on a stock price of $13.95. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.55. The current P/B Ratio is 1.60 based on a Book Value of $230.94, Book Value per Share of $3.03 and a stock price of $13.95. The current ratio is 30% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.87. The current ratio is 7.75 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $1.80, Cash Flow of $137M, and a stock price of $13.95. The current ratio is 44% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.00%. The current dividend yield is 5.16% based on dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $13.95. The current dividend yield is 29% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.28%. The current dividend yield is 5.16% based on dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $13.95. The current dividend yield is 20.7% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.14. The current P/S Ratio is 2.32 based on a stock price of $13.95, Revenue estimate for 2023 of $458M and Revenue per Share of $6.01. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Both the dividend yield tests are saying this as is the P/S Ratio test. All the stock price tests are good, including the P/E Ratio test as P/E Ratios are consistent. Most tests are looking to the future, except the P/B Ratio test which is showing how the company is doing currently. The future looking tests show that the stock is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Buy (2). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $16.33. This implies a total return of 22.22% with 17.06% from capital gains and 5.16% from dividends.

Not much in comments lately on Stock Chase. Some analysts feel the company pays out too much of their cash flow in dividends. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says this company is a rare tech gem with dividends. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool says this tech company is too often ignored. The company talks on Newsfile about their fourth quarter 2022 results. Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance talks about who owns this company. They have one warning of unstable dividend track record.

Evertz Technologies Ltd is a Canadian provider of telecommunications equipment and technology solutions to the television broadcast and new-media industries. More than half of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States. Its web site is here Evertz Technologies Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Superior Plus Corp (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF) ... learn more on Friday, August 12, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Wealthsimple Trading.... learn more on Thursday, August 11, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, August 8, 2022

Andrew Peller Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumers. The stock price is probably cheap, so there is probably a good buying opportunity. Dividend Payout Ratios are expected to improve in the near future. Most debt ratios are fine, but the Liquidity Ratio is very good. See my spreadsheet on Andrew Peller Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably cheap. It is certainly below the median. For most years, shareholders have made a reasonable return. I think a reasonable long term return on a stock is a total return of 8% per year. You probably need to buy this stock at a low to get a good return. The stock is down recently, but so are most stocks.

I do not own this stock of Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF). This stock was on Mike Higgs' dividend growth stock list. I owned this stock as Andres Wines Ltd between 1996 and 2000. When I held this stock, it was called Andres Wines Ltd. This company has a Financial Year ending March 31 each year. The Financial year I am covering is for March 31, 2022.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company did not have a good year in 2022. Sales were down, but most costs were up. This ended with EPS down some 55% from last year. There are few analysts following this stock.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1001.30 you would have bought 323 shares at $3.10 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $560.63 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,635.68. Your total return would have been $3,196.31.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$3.10 $1,001.30 323 10 $560.63 $2,635.68 $3,196.31

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.00%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 2.05%, 2.15% and 3.58%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 8.54% per year over the past 5 years. Prior growth is lower.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 84% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 203% with 5 year coverage at 66%. The DPR for AEPS for 2023 is expected to drop to 62% and then in 2024 to 46%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 23%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 463% with 5 year coverage at 64%. However, sites do not agree on what the FCF is.

Debt Ratios are fine. Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.61. It is fine, but is better if at 0.50 or lower. The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 4.34. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.91. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are fine at 2.10 and 1.10.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 37 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 8.54% -4.87% -6.95% 2.08%
2011 10 7.44% 13.71% 10.16% 3.55%
2006 15 7.25% 7.52% 4.90% 2.62%
2001 20 6.25% 11.34% 7.92% 3.42%
1996 25 5.29% 9.53% 6.42% 3.11%
1991 30 4.39% 11.09% 6.45% 4.64%
1986 35 3.86% 6.02% 3.51% 2.51%
1984 37 8.39% 5.11% 3.27%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.32, 21.22 and 27.49. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.98, 16.96 and 21.21. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.21, 13.40 and 14.81. The current P/E Ratio is 23.65 based on a stock price of $6.15 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.26. This ratio is above the 10 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Adjusted Earning per Share data. The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.75, 21.81 and 27.88. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.79, 16.74 and 21.63. The current ratio is 15.38 based on a stock price of $6.15 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $0.40. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $6.01. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.84, 1.25 and 1.64. The current ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price of $6.15. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current P/B Ratio is 1.00 based on a Book Value of $266M, Book Value per Share of $6.18 and a stock price of $6.15. The current ratio is 42% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.04. The current P/CF ratio is 12.67 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $0.49, Cash Flow of $20.9M and a stock price $6.15. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.58%. The current dividend yield is 4.00% based on a stock price of $6.15 and dividends of $0.246. The current dividend yield is 12% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.15%. The current dividend yield is 4.00% based on a stock price of $6.15 and dividends of $0.246. The current dividend yield is 85% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.05. The current P/S Ratio is 0.68 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $389M, Revenue per Share of $9.02 and a stock price of $6.15. The current ratio is 35% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The 10 year dividend yield test and the P/S Ratio test shows this result. Most of the other good tests is showing the stock price as reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $8.75. (Reuters). The 12 month stock price points to a total return of 46.28% with 42.28% from capital gains and 4.00% from dividends.

Several analysts on Stock Chase expect the company’s results to improve now that we are past the pandemic. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool says that this stock is almost in oversold territory. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says that this company suffered because of closures of restaurants and hospitality businesses because of the pandemic. The company reports on their fourth quarter via Newswire. The company reports on the first quarter of 2023 via a Press Release.

Simply Wall Street reports on this company via Yahoo Financial. Simply wall Street list 5 warnings on this stock of earnings have declined by 7.9% per year over past 5 years; interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 4.24% is not well covered by earnings; large one-off items impacting financial results and profit margins (3.3%) are lower than last year (7.1%).

Andrew Peller Ltd is a wine producing company. It is engaged in the production and marketing of wine and spirit products in Canada. The Company owns and operates over 100 well-positioned independent retail locations in Ontario under The Wine Shop, Wine Country Vintners, and Wine Country Merchants store. Its web site is here Andrew Peller Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Evertz Technologies Ltd (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 10, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Three Dividend All Stars.... learn more on Tuesday, August 9, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, August 5, 2022

BlackBerry Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Canadian Tech Stock. Stock price is testing as expensive. Debt Ratios are good. Both the CEO and CFO has purchased shares over the past year. See my spreadsheet on BlackBerry Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock testing is showing the stock price as expensive. The company does not seem to be making much progress as far as earnings and revenue is concerned. Although analysts expect revenue to pick up in this financial year. Who knows if this will ever be a good tech stock again?

I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB), but I used to. I bought this stock for capital gain. I first bought it in 1999 and then some more in 2000. I sold some in 2006 and 2007 to lock in some profit. I sold the rest of my stock in 2010. I had the stock for some 10 years and made a total return of $20% per year.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this stock is also reporting on Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS). The AEPS is better than EPS, but still in 2022, they had an earnings loss. The financial year on this stock ends February 28, so the Financial Year I am looking at is February 28, 2022.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,006.40 you would have bought 68 shares at $14.80 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $0 in dividends. The stock would be worth $803.76. Your total return would have been $803.76.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$14.80 $1,006.40 68 10 $0.00 $803.76 $803.76

This stock pays no dividends and has never paid any dividends.

Debt Ratios are good. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good and low at 0.13. The Liquidity Ratio is high and good at 2.63. The Debt Ratio is high and good at 2.54. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.65 and 0.65.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 0.00% 5.19% 5.19% 0.00%
2011 10 0.00% -2.22% -2.22% 0.00%
2006 15 0.00% -9.13% -9.13% 0.00%
2001 20 0.00% 3.20% 3.20% 0.00%
1996 25 0.00% 9.55% 9.55% 0.00%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2021 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 0.00% 6.30% 6.30% 0.00%
2011 10 0.00% -4.29% -4.29% 0.00%
2006 15 0.00% -9.61% -9.61% 0.00%
2001 20 0.00% 4.40% 4.40% 0.00%
1996 25 0.00% 9.90% 9.90% 0.00%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and so useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.42, 14.69 and 19.58. The current P/E Ratio is negative so cannot be used in testing.

I do have Adjusted Earnings per Share data. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/AEPS Ratios are 61.55, 91.00 and 131.88. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The AEPS values for 2023 is expected to be negative. There is no valid testing for P/AEPS Ratios.

I guess a Graham Price of $2.32. It is a guess because of the number of years with earnings losses. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 1.03 and 1.34. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.73 based on a stock price of $8.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. This testing is done is CDN$. A P/GP Ratio of 3.73 is a very high ratio.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.78 based on a Book Value of $1,385M, Book Value per Share of $2.40 and a stock price of $6.67. The current ratio is 59% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in US$, but you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.10. The current P/CF Ratio is 37.06 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $0.18, Cash Flow of $104M and a stock price of $6.67. The current is 422% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in US$, but you will get a similar result in CDN$.

This stock has no dividends, so I cannot do any dividend yield testing.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.92. The current P/S Ratio is 4.03 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $954M, Revenue per Share of $1.66 and a stock price of $6.67. The current ratio is 38% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in US$, but you will get a similar result in CDN$. The problem is declining Revenue.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. This is showing by the P/S Ratio test. Also, the P/B Ratio and P/CF Ratio tests, which are good clean test, are also showing that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), Hold (4) and Sell (3). The consensus is Underperform. Analysts seem to have no enthusiasm for this stock. The 12 month stock price consensus is $7.76 CDN$ ($6.04 US$). This implies a total loss of 10.04% with all the loss from a capital loss.

The analysts’ recommendations for 2020 on Stock Chase are all Do Not Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Karen Thomas Motley Fool thinks this stock is current a very attractive bargain. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool thinks this company will benefit from high spending on cybersecurity. The company reports on Newswire their fourth quarter results. The company reports on Newswire their first quarter of 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street reviews this stock on Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street gives two warning signs for this company of currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. Insiders are not selling; it looks like they are when they do not pick up all their stock options.

BlackBerry Ltd, once known for being the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, is now exclusively a software provider with a stated goal of end-to-end secure communication for enterprises. Its web site is here BlackBerry Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF) ... learn more on Monday, August 8, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Stingray Digital Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is relatively cheap. Debt Ratios need improving. Dividends have been flat lately because they the DPR was getting too high. See my spreadsheet on Stingray Digital Group Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is currently cheap. I own shares in my TFSA, which is my fooling around money. I bought some more shares in this company today for my TFSA account. This stock is about music and I do not think that people are going to stop listening to music.

I own this stock of Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE). I was following Newfoundland Capital Corp and Stingray Bought them out. Also, I read the blub on CEO, Eric Boyko. The site says he is an entrepreneur with nearly two decades of experience with start-ups. Mr. Boyko has extensive expertise in early stage business innovations. The financial year for this company ends at March 31 each year, so the annual report I am looking at is for March 31, 2022.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there is insider buying and this is always a good thing. I have not done well on this stock to June 2022. I have a negative total return of 3.74% with a capital loss of 7.97% and dividends of 4.23%. This is after holding this stock for 4 years.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, $1000.50 you would have bought 138 shares at $7.25 per share. In December 2021, after 7 years you would have received $216.66 in dividends. The stock would be worth $216.66. Your total return would have been $1097.10.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$7.25 $1,000.50 138 7 $216.66 $880.44 $1,097.10

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 4.84%. The 5 and 6 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.12% and 2.82%. The Dividend growth over the past 5 years has been moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 14% per year. The last dividend increase occurred in 2020 and it was for 7.1%. Dividends have been flat since 2020 and analysts do not expect any increases over the next 3 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 64% with 5 year coverage at 119%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 38% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 24% with 5 year coverage at 25%. The 33% with 5 year coverage at 35%.

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.65. It rises to 0.82 in 2023. This is because of a drop in the stock price. This is higher than I like to see. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 0.87. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is just 1.34. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is 1.45 and I also prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.23 and 2.23. I prefer these to be below 3.00 and below 2.00

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 7 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 14.12% -2.59% -6.04% 3.45%
2014 7 15.71% 1.42% -1.81% 3.23%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.57, 15.51 and 17.45. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.06, 24.86 and 28.45. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.06, 24.86 and 28.45. The current P/E Ratio is 9.69 based on a stock price of $6.20 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.64. The current P/E Ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.08, 9.23 and 10.70. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.30, 11.82 and 13.60. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 7.29 based on AEPS estimate for 2023 of $0.85 and a stock price of $6.20. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $7.39. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 1.78 and 2.23. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.84 based on a stock price of $6.20. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.09. The current P/B Ratio is 1.63 based on a stock price of $6.20, Book Value of $273.5M and Book Value per Share of $3.79. The current P/B Ratio is 22% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.23. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.63 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $1.34, Cash Flow of $96.6M and a stock price of $6.20. The current P/CF Ratio is 54% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.82%. The current dividend yield is 4.84% based on dividends of $0.30 and a stock price of $6.20. The current dividend yield is 72% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 6 year median dividend yield of 2.82%. The current dividend yield is 4.84% based on dividends of $0.30 and a stock price of $6.20. The current dividend yield is 72% above the 6 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.86. The current P/S Ratio is 1.37 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $326M, Revenue per Share of $4.52 and a stock price of $6.20. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The dividend yield test shows this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the other tests are pointing to the stock price as being relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (3). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $8.00. This implies a Total Return of 33.87% with 29.03% from capital gains and 4.84% from dividends based on a stock price of $6.20.

Few analysts cover this stock on Stock Chase. Stock Chase gives it 1 star out of 5 stars. It is not on the Money Sense list. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool recently looked at this stock. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool talks about this company teaming up with Dollarama. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance reviews this company. Simply Wall Street lists 3 risks with this company of has a high level of debt; unstable dividend track record and profit margins (11.8%) are lower than last year (18.2%).

Stingray Group Inc is a music, media, and technology company. The company generates maximum revenue from the Broadcasting and commercial music segment. Its web site is here Stingray Digital Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB) ... learn more on Friday, August 5, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy August 2022.... learn more on Thursday, August 4, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, August 1, 2022

Loblaw Companies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The current stock price seems on the expensive side. They have been doing better lately. This is especially true of EPS and Stock Price. There is nothing remarkable about Dividend Payout Ratios or Debt Ratios. See my spreadsheet on Loblaw Companies Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Stock price seems expensive. This stock has been preforming better lately. I do wonder if they have really fixed their supply system. When shelves are empty of an item, it can be a week before the item is back. I notice with Metro that items seem to be restocked the next day. However, I do like shopping at Loblaws better than Metro, even though I own Metro stock.

I do not own this stock of Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF). I have followed this stock for some time. I got the stock from Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth companies. I owned it from 1996 to 2007. It was originally a great stock. I sold it in 2007 because it was having problems with its tech upgrade to its supply system and it did not seem that it would be fixed anytime soon.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company is providing Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. However, this data has been inconsistent over the years. Sometimes they provided Diluted AEPS (recent) and sometimes Basic AEPS and sometimes neither.

If you look at my spreadsheet, I can see that from around 2016, the EPS started to rise for this company. Over the past 5 years, EPS is up by just over 18%. The Revenue per Share is not up so strong at just 6.6% per year over the past 5 years. It is interesting that the Adjusted Earnings per Share (AESP) is up by only 6.7% per year over the past 5 years.

This stock has done well lately. If you compared the chart of total return of the end of 2020 to the one below to 2021, you can see that the Total Return for years 5 and 10 are much better. Below the total return for the last 5 and 10 years are 1.01% and 6.61%. For chart ending in 2021, the total return for last 5 and 10 years is 9.39% and 12.55%.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2015 5 5.17% 1.01% -0.79% 1.79%
2010 10 4.30% 6.61% 4.52% 2.09%
2005 15 2.85% 3.45% 0.72% 2.72%
2000 20 5.99% 2.83% 1.27% 1.56%
1995 25 10.31% 10.22% 7.50% 2.72%
1990 30 10.17% 10.62% 8.07% 2.55%
1988 32 9.67% 13.57% 10.20% 3.37%

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1000.48 you would have bought 26 shares at $38.48 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $284.31 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,694.64. Your total return would have been $2,978.95.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$38.48 $1,000.48 26 10 $284.31 $2,694.64 $2,978.95

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.39%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 6.33% per year. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.82%, 1.84% and 1.39%. Dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 6% per year over the past 5 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 36%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 25% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for CFPS is 8% with 5 year coverage at 9%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is 16% with 5 year coverage at 18%. (However, site have very different values for FCF.)

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.30 and is good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.37, but if you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is 1.85. (I like this one to be at 1.50 or higher). The Debt Ratio is a bit low at 1.47 as I prefer this also to be at 1.50 or higher.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div. check
2016 5 6.33% 9.39% 7.91% 1.48% 9.39%
2011 10 5.24% 12.25% 10.42% 1.83% 12.25%
2006 15 3.46% 6.59% 5.15% 1.44% 6.59%
2001 20 6.46% 5.14% 3.84% 1.31% 5.14%
1996 25 10.33% 10.27% 8.26% 2.01% 10.27%
1991 30 10.01% 12.44% 10.12% 2.33% 12.44%
1988 33 9.66% 14.38% 11.55% 2.83% 14.38%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.43, 22.04 and 24.65. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 20.18, 22.78 and 25.39. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.05, 19.42 and 21.60. The current ratio is 21.31 based on a stock price of $116.57 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $5.47. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share AEPS) data. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/AEPS Ratios are 14.23, 16.07 and 18.05. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.48, 16.22 and 18.36. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 18.21 based on AEPS estimate for 2022 of $6.40 and a stock price of $116.57. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $64.88. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.48 and 1.64. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.80 based on a stock price of $116.57. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.11. The current P/B Ratio is 3.41 based on a Book Value of $11,407M, Book Value per Share of $34.20 and a stock price of $116.57. The current ratio is 32% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.47. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.93 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $14.70, Cash Flow of $4,903M and a stock price of $116.57. The current ratio is 6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.49%. The current dividend yield is 1.39% based on a stock price of $116.57 and Dividends of $1.62. The current ratio is 7% at the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.84%. The current dividend yield is 1.39% based on a stock price of $116.57 and Dividends of $1.62. The current ratio is 25% below the 10 median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.51. The current P/S Ratio is 0.71 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $54,919M, Revenue per Share of $164.66 and a stock price of $116.57. The current ratio is 39% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. Both the 10 year median dividend yield test and the P/S Ratio test show this result. Lots of people think that the 10 year test for dividend yield is much better than the historical one. Not all the tests show an expensive result. For example, the P/E Ratio test says the price is reasonable. This is not a bad tests as P/E Ratios are uniform over a long period. The P/CF Ratio test also says the stock price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong buy (4), Buy (3), Hold (3) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $125.55. This implies a total return of 9.09% with 7.70% from capital gains and 1.39% from dividends.

Some analysts on Stock Chase think that the stock is too expensive. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is interesting the Loblaw got a C rating from Money Sense until 2021 and then is not on their list of 100 best Canadian Dividend stocks in 2022. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks this is a dependable dividend stock for RRSP Accounts. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool likes this stock as a defensive stock. The company reported on a Press Release their fourth quarterly results. The company reported on a Press Release their first quarter 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street has a report on Yahoo Finance. This report reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street has two warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.9% per year for the next 3 years; and the company has a high level of debt.

Loblaw is one of Canada's largest grocery, pharmacy, and general merchandise retailers, operating the most expansive store footprint in Ontario and maintaining sizable presences in provinces like Quebec and British Columbia. The firm's controlling shareholder is George Weston Limited, which owns 52.6% of the equity. Its web site is here Loblaw Companies Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP0 ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 3, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks August 2022 .... learn more on Tuesday, August 2, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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