Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Not doubt that this company has generally done well for its shareholders over long periods of time. However, the stock price is at a long term high. It is probably not a good time to buy. My testing is saying that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I do not own this stock of Johnson and Johnson (NYSE-JNJ). As Canadians, we are told we should be buying US stocks for our portfolio. It is often recommended that we have at least 25% of our portfolio in US stocks. I have never followed this, although I have tried dipping into the US market, but I have never made any money there. I bought some of this stock in June 2005 and realized a year later, in June of 2006 that it was going nowhere for me and sold. I lost almost 17% of my investment. When I bought in 2005, all the analysts were saying that it was a good buy at that time.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the stock price went up by 43% in 2028 and is up some 91% so far this year. There were 5 years periods between 2003 and 2012 that this stock did not do well. That changed after 2013 and most of the time to 2025 there was 8% total return over 5 year periods.
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. In column 5, I am showing what growth has been over the past 12 months to the end of the third quarter in 2026 and what is expected to the end of this year. The last column of the stock price growth is for the next 12 months.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth | 14.06% | 2.67% | 8.99% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 34.37% | 6.09% | -1.30% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 82.17% | 12.74% | -39.95% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 4.22% | 0.83% | 6.64% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 29.15% | 5.25% | 3.50% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 31.50% | 5.63% | 33.44% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | 34.42% | 3.00% | 8.99% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | 74.03% | 5.70% | -1.30% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 73.95% | 5.69% | -39.95% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 27.24% | 2.44% | 6.64% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | 74.24% | 5.71% | 3.50% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | 101.47% | 7.26% | 1.18% | <-12 mths |
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,027.20 you would have bought 26 shares at $102.72 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $680.30 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,069.50. Your total return would have been $2,749.80. This would be a total return of 11.60% per year with 7.26% from capital gain and 4.34% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $102.72 | $1,027.20 | 10 | 10 | $680.30 | $2,069.50 | $2,749.80 |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.95%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.88%, 280% and 2.49%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 5.3% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 3.08% and it occurred in 2026.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 47% with 5 year coverage far too high at 112%. However, the DPR for AEPS is more important. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 48% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage high at 94%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 63% with 5 year coverage at 62%. I only get 2 estimates for FCF and they agree the FCF is $19,689M for 2025.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 46.60% | 111.56% |
| AEPS | 47.64% | 46.16% |
| CFPS | 33.23% | 94.22% |
| FCF | 62.85% | 61.95% |
Debt Ratios are fine, but Liquidity could improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.08 and currently at 0.05. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is low at 1.03 and 1.02 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still low at 1.25 and currently at 1.16. I like these ratios to be at 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.69 and 1.70 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are fine at 2.44 and 1.44 and currently at 2.42 and 1.42.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Intang/GW | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| Liquidity | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.69 | 1.70 |
| Leverage | 2.44 | 2.42 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.44 | 1.42 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 37 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 5.25% | 11.34% | 5.63% | 5.71% |
| 2015 | 10 | 5.71% | 11.60% | 7.26% | 4.34% |
| 2010 | 15 | 6.12% | 12.55% | 8.37% | 4.17% |
| 2005 | 20 | 7.22% | 9.70% | 6.38% | 3.33% |
| 2000 | 25 | 8.83% | 8.39% | 5.64% | 2.75% |
| 1995 | 30 | 9.70% | 11.00% | 7.86% | 3.14% |
| 1990 | 35 | 10.32% | 12.99% | 9.43% | 3.56% |
| 1988 | 37 | 10.69% | 14.46% | 10.40% | 4.05% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.60, 21.29 and 22.98. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 20.73, 23.99 and 26.18. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.55, 19.17 and 21.97. The current ratio is 25.04 based on a stock price of $276.15 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $6.83. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.68, 16.52 and 18.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.54, 16.47 and 18.32. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.48, 16.35 and 18.12. The current ratio is 24.83 based on a stock price of $276.15 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $11.12. The current ratio is above the high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $92.04. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.83, 2.04 and 2.27. The current ratio is 3.00 based on a stock price of $276.15. The current ratio is above the high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.70. The current ratio is 8.16 based on a Book Value of $81,529M, Book Value per Share of $33.86 and a stock price of $276.15. The current ratio is 43% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $35.41. This implies a Book Value of $85,265M with a Ratio of 7.80 with a stock price of $276.15. The current ratio of 7.80 is 37% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 16.15. The current ratio is 32.40 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $8.52 and a stock price of $276.15. The current ratio 101% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.49%. The current ratio is 1.94% based on dividends of $5.36 and a stock price of $276.15. The current dividend yield is 22% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.80%. The current ratio is 1.94% based on dividends of $5.36 and a stock price of $276.15. The current dividend yield is 31% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.42. The current P/S Ratio is 6.57 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $101,222M, Revenue per Share of $42.04 and a stock price of $276.15. The current ratio is 49% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The 10 year median dividend yield says this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All but one test is saying that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (11), Buy (5), Hold (6), and Sell (1). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $279.41 with a high of $320.00 and a low of 190.00. The 12 month stock price of $279.41 implies a total return of 3.12% with 1.18% from capital gains and 1.94% from dividends based on a current stock price of $276.15.
Analyst on Stock Chase seem to like this company. Brendan Coffey on Motley Fool compares Amgen and JNJ and says they are both good but Amgen is relatively cheaper. Matthew DiLallo on Motley Fool talks about what companies JNJ owns and the fact that Motley Fool issued a rare Total Conviction Buy Alert. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter results for 2025. The company put out a Press Release about their third quarter of 2026.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talk about JNJ’s treatment for Plaque Psoriasis and what they can gain from this pharmaceutical. Zacks via Yahoo Finance asks if JNJ is a good investment. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance asks if JNJ is fairly values after its recent run up in stock value. Simply Wall Street has three warnings of large one-off items impacting financial results; profit margins (16.2%) are lower than last year (27.2%); and significant insider selling over the past 3 months.
Johnson & Johnson's biggest strength is its diversified business model. It operates through pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer products divisions. Its web site is here Johnson and Johnson.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Quebecor Inc (TSX-QBR.B, OTC-QBCRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Finning International Inc (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF) ... learn more on Monday, November 2, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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