Monday, July 24, 2017

Lassonde Industries Inc.

I just bought 200 shares of Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF) for my TFSA. It is a higher risk stock, but for my TFSA I am going to higher risk stock. Also, with a dividend yield of over 7%, there is a good chance that the company will cut the dividends.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. This is a great company, but it is currently rather expensive. A good price on this stock would be closer to $140.00 rather than the current $240.00. See my spreadsheet on Lassonde Industries Inc.

I do not own this stock of Lassonde Industries Inc. (TSX-LAS.A, OTC-LSDAF). Although this stock is not on the Investment Reporter list, MPL communications does write about this stock. It has been covered several times in their Advice Hotline emails in 2010. Reports have been favorable and they suggest buying it for dividends and long term capital gains.

It is rather typical of food companies to have low dividend yields and this company is no different. The current dividend yield is 1 % based on dividends of $2.44 and a stock price of $240.50. The 5 year median, 10 year median and historical median are higher at 1.34%, 1.67% and 1.76% respectively.

The dividend growth is better over the past 5 years than in the past. This dividend growth is good at 15.1% per year. For other time periods the dividend growth was low to moderate with the lowest growth over the past 20 years. Growth over the past 10, 15 and 20 years were at 14% (moderate), 9.2% (moderate) and 6.8% (low). In keeping with increasing dividend growth, the latest dividend increase which occurred in 2017 was for 19.6%.

When I look at my spreadsheet all I see is green. I colour code growth values and green means growth of 8% or more. I look generally at the last 5 and 10 years, and at Revenue, EPS, Stock Price, Cash Flow, Book Value and Net Income are all coming up green.

Debt ratios are all good. For example, the Liquidity Ratio for 2016 was 1.70 and has a 5 year median of 1.79. Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios for 2016 is at 1.88 and 0.88 with 5 year medians at 2.06 and 1.06. Return on Equity (ROE) has not been below 10% during the last 10 years. However, Comprehensive Income Return on Equity has as it was 9.3% in 2016 when the ROE was 11.6%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.79, 18.10 and 20.37. The 10 year corresponding values are 10.80, 12.38 and 12.12. The historical values are 10.80, 13.06 and 14.87. Unfortunately, the increase in the P/E Ratio can account for some of the run up in the stock price. The current P/E Ratio is 20.80 based on a stock price of $240.50 and 2017 EPS estimate of 11.56. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham price of $142.61. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 0.99 and 1.13. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.69 based on a stock price of $240.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.80. The current P/B Ratio is 3.08 a value some 71% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on a stock price of $240.50, Book Value of $546.37 and BVPS of $78.19. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.76%. The current dividend yield is 1.01% based on dividends of $2.44 and a stock price of $240.50. The current yield is 42% below the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (or Price/Revenue) Ratio of 0.63. The current P/S Ratio is 1.09 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $1546M, Revenue per Share estimate of $221.24 and a stock price of $240.50. The current ratio is some 73% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look for analysts' recommendation, I found only one that that analyst is giving a Buy Recommendations. The 12 month stock price is set at $250. This implies a total return of 4.96% with 1.01% from dividends and 3.95% from capital gains.

Ryan Goldsman on Motley Fool gives this stock as his top pick for July. Staff at Financial Newsweek Staff say some interesting things about this stock. Kurt Siggers on San Times says that the next quarterly EPS estimate is $2.90.

Lassonde Industries Inc. is a North American leader in the development, manufacture and sale of a wide range of fruit and vegetable juices and drinks marketed under recognized brands such as Apple & Eve, Everfresh, Fairlee, Flavür, Fruité, Graves, Northland, Oasis, Rougemont, Seneca and The Switch. Lassonde is the second-largest producer of store brand ready-to-drink fruit juices and drinks in the United States and a major producer of cranberry juices, drinks and sauces. Its web site is here Lassonde Industries Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Obsidian Energy Ltd TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE)... learn more on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Home Capital Group... learn more on Tuesday, July 25, 2017around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, July 21, 2017

Alaris Royalty Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Dividends are good as is the debt ratios. Coverage of dividends is getting thin so no wonder they did not increase them in 2017. I am think ing buying this with money in my TFSA. See my spreadsheet on Alaris Royalty Corp.

I do not own this stock of Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF). This is a stock that Dividends In Hand Blogger has bought in July 2016. It was also recommended by Acumen Capital report in a report by Brian Pow and Oliver Shao via Investor's Digest.

This company only when public in 2008 therefore I have only 9 years of data on it. Dividends were started in 2009, so there is only 7 years of data on dividends.

So far dividends have been good (above 4%) and dividend increases low (1% to 7%) to moderate (8% to 15%). The current dividend is 7.28% with a historical median of 6.12% and a 5 year median of 5.30%. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 7 years is at 9.3% and 7.3% per year. However, dividend increases 2015 have been below 9% and the last dividend increase that occurred in 2016 was for 3.8%. So far this year here has been no dividend increase. Dividends are paid monthly.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 is a bit high at 89.5%. The 5 year median is too high at 102%. Analysts do not expect any change in dividends this year or next, but they do expect that there might be a peak in the DPR for 2017 and then for it to drop. The DPR for CFPS is better at 67.5% with a 5 year median at79%. This ratio is also expected to be higher in 2017.

Shares have increased by 13.3% and 42.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There is nothing wrong with increasing shares, but it does mean that you have to be careful on where you look for growth. In this case you want to look at per share values. It can make a big difference. For example, Revenue growth over the past 5 and 10 years is 35.9% and 27.3% per year. However, Revenue per Share Growth, which is the real growth in revenue, comes in at 20% and a negative 10.7% per year over the past 5 and 9 years.

This stock has very good debt ratios. They are very high in 2016. In 2016 the Liquidity Ratio was 6.92 with a 5 year median of 3.73. The Debt Ratio in 2016 was 5.94 with a 5 year median of 7.09. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are in 2016 1.20 and 0.20 with 5 year median of 1.16 and 0.16.

Return on Equity is a bit low. The ROE for 2016 was 10.2% but the 5 year median is 8.5%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is unfortunately lower at 4.9% in 2016 with a 5 year median of 6.4%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.18, 19.21 and 23.23. The 9 year corresponding ratios are 11.71, 13.84 and 17.17. The current P/E Ratio is 14.73 based on a stock price of $22.24 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $24.66. The 9 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.69, 0.90 and 1.15. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.90 based on a stock price of $22.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.29. The current P/B Ratio is 1.24 based on a stock price of $22.24 and BV of $650.2M and BVPS of $17.89. The current P/B Ratio is some 4% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

The historical median dividend yield is 6.12%. The current dividend is 7.28% based on dividends of $1.62 and a stock price of $22.24. The current dividend is some 19% above the historical yield. If it was 20% above the stock would be cheap. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (or Revenue) Ratio is 10.81. The current P/S Ratio is 8.62 a value some 20% lower. The current P/S Ratio is based on a stock price of $22.24, 2017 revenue 2017 estimate of $94 and 2017 revenue per share estimate of $2.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, they are Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $24.06. This implies a total return of 15.475 with 8.18% from capital gains and 7.28% from dividends.

Kay Ng of Motley Fool likes this stock. Chris MacDonald on Bay Street says insiders are bullish on this company. There are more insiders buying than selling with Net Insider Buying at 0.02% over the past year. Sally Masters on Stock News Time talks about some buying and selling by insiders. See what analysts are saying at Stock Chase. They like to stock but are cautious.

Alaris Royalty Corp. forms partnerships with and invests in private companies where owners want to maintain control of their business. Typically, this financial services provider participates in the form of preferred limited partnership interests, preferred interest in limited liability corporations in North America, or long-term license and royalty arrangements. Its web site is here Alaris Royalty Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Lassonde Industries Inc. (TSX-LAS.A, OTC-LSDAF)... learn more on Monday, July 24, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Atlantic Power Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: No Dividend Utility. The stock has high debt and cannot make a profit. They seem to acknowledge their problems and are try to get the debt under control. Some of the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, they have huge vulnerabilities in their high debt level. See my spreadsheet on Atlantic Power Corp.

I do not own this stock of Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT). Because I like utility companies and in 2010, I have read two columns that recommended this particular utility company (TSX-ATP), I decided to investigate it.

After investigating this stock, my impression is that I would not touch it with a barge-pole. However, I will talk about it and upload my spreadsheet so that you can decide for yourself. This company has recently converted from an income trust to a corporation. This company is in the TSX Utility Index. (Perhaps this is why it is recommended?)

First, I do not like their debt ratios. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2016 is 2.98. If this is above 1.00 it means that the market values the company below the amount of their long term debt. If this ratio comes close to 1.00 alarm bells should ring out.

There are no debt ratios that I like. The Liquidity Ratio at 1.09 is very low. Even if you add in Cash Flow it is still 1.22 (this figure is usually cash flow after dividends, but dividends have been cut). The Debt Ratio is also low at 1.24. These ratios should be at 1.50 or better. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are very high at 22.55 and 18.13 respectively. . In the news release with the fourth quarterly results Atlantic Power Corp talks about improving their debt position.

The company cannot make a profit. This company went public in 2004, which is 13 years ago. They made a profit in only one year and that was in 2018. The company's book value has fallen by 37.6% and 13% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in CDN$ and by 41% and 14.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years in US$.

I cannot do any Price/Earnings per Share Ratio testing of the stock price as most all the P/E Ratios are negative. The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 7.66, 11.48 and 13.40. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 7.46 based on AFFO estimate for 2017 of $0.39 CDN$ and a stock price of $2.93CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $2.50 CDN$. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.02 and 1.20. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.17 based on a stock price of $2.93. In this Graham Price formula I used the AFFO because it cannot calculate a Graham Price using a negative EPS. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.93. The current P/B Ratio is 4.13 based on a stock price of $2.93 CDN$, $81.7M CDN$ Book Value and $0.71 CDN$ Book Value per Share. The current P/B Ratio is 114% above the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. (Note that BV is declining.) You would get similar results if I did this in US$.

I, of course, cannot do any stock price testing on dividends as dividends were cut in 2016 after declining since 2013. The other thing to point out is that the stock used to be an Income Trust. Income Trust companies tend to pay out dividends higher than EPS and AFFO or FFO is used to determine Payout Ratios. Even the AFFO was negative in 2016. They have paid out over the past 5 years 100% of the AFFO. However, paying out the AFFO or more than it is never a good idea. Also, the company is now a corporation not an income trust.

The 10 Year median P/S Ratio at close is 1.94 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 0.61 in US$ based on a stock price $2.33 US$, 2017 Revenue estimate of $453M US$ and 2017 Revenue per Share estimate of $3.96 US$. The current P/S Ratio is some 69% lower than the 10 year median P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap. (You will get a similar result in CDN$ terms.)

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. There is only 4 analysts following this stock and 3 give it a Hold. The 12 months stock price is $2.93 US$ or $3.71 CDN$. This implies a total return of 25.75% with all from capital gains.

Doug Wharley on The Cerbat Gem talks about Wells Fargo increasing their increasing their stake in this company. Nick Cummings on Stock New Journal thinks that this stock is a sizzler. You have to wonder at their presentation of information. Yes P/S Ratio is low at a 0.59 currently with stock price at $2.33. At $2.40 I get P/S Ratio of 0.61. Over the past 5 years Sales are up by 40% if you look at revenue or 38% if you look at Sales per share. However, Sales were down by 26% in 2015, 5% in 2016 and year to date for March 2017 by 2%. This is in US$. Sorry, but I do not see this stock as a sizzlers. This is not well followed and the last two analysts' entries are for 2016 on Stock Chase and are Don't Buy recommendations.

Atlantic Power Corporation is an independent power producer that owns interests in a diversified fleet of power generation and transmission projects located in the United States. This company has a collection of gas-fired plants in the US and is generally in the lower cost quadrant of generation in its region. ATP owns interests in a diversified portfolio of independent, non-utility power generation projects and one transmission line situated in major U.S. markets. Its web site is here Atlantic Power Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF)... learn more on Friday, July 21, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Banks... learn more on Thursday, July 20, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, July 17, 2017

Artis REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying REIT. When debt ratios are not up to snuff, a company would be vulnerable in bad times. Stock price seems more reasonable than cheap. See my spreadsheet on Artis REIT.

I do not own this stock of Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF). Early in 2013, this company was mentioned as a good REIT to own. A number of people I correspond with mentioned this REIT. However, my first view of it is not positive. It is also not a dividend growth stock.

First, I do not like the debt ratios on this stock. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 1.13. This means that their long term debt is higher than the market value given this stock. Also, the Liquidity Ratio is very low at 0.20. If this is not at least 1.00 it means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. No matter how I fool around with this I cannot get it above 0.76. I am using only cash dividends (compared to dividends due to be paid) and adding back in the current portion of the long term debt.

For companies with a Dividend Reinvestment Plan some of the dividends due to be paid is paid for in new shares. So that actual cash a company has to laid-out is lower than the amount of dividends that is payable. So in calculating a Liquidity Ratio you can use actual dividends paid in cash for the calculation. However, you cannot pretend either that the dividends paid with shares are cost free, they are not. Increase in shares dilute everyone holdings.

The other thing is the increase in outstanding shares. Outstanding shares have increased by 11.1% and 25.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. When this happens you do not want to say look at Revenue growth to get an idea of Revenue growth. What you want to look at is Revenue per Share growth. For this stock these are very different.

f Revenue growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 13.6% and 26.2% per year. Revenue per Share growth is at 2.3% and 0.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue growth looks very good but it really is not. The true growth in Revenue is the Revenue per Share growth.

Dividend yield is very high at 8.19%. I preferred dividend growth companies to companies with high dividend yield. Dividend growth is currently non-existent. Dividends have been flat since 2009. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 0% and 0.3% per year.

Since Price/Earnings Ratios are negative I will use Price/Funds from Operations Ratios. The 5 year P/FFO Ratios are 9.22, 10.38 and 11.52. The 10 year P/FFO Ratios are 9.10, 10.35 and 11.53. The current P/FFO Ratio is 8.97 based on FFO 2017 estimate of $1.47 and stock price of $13.18.. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $17.77. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.63, 0.77 and 0.85. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.74 based on a stock price of 13.18. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 0.90. The current P/B Ratio is 0.85 based on BV of $2,323M, BVPS of $15.43 and a stock price of $13.18. The current P/B Ratio is some 4.9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The historical median dividend yield is 7.49%. The current dividend yield of 8.19% is based on dividends of $1.08 and a stock price of $13.18. The current dividend is some 9.4% above the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I see Buy and Hold. Most are Hold recommendations and the consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $13.69. This implies a total return of 12.06% with 8.19% from dividends and 3.87% from Capital gains.

Scott Moore on The Cerbat Gem says this stock earned a Hold from 8 analysts' recommendations. Olivia Pulsinelli on Houston Business Journal seems to say that this development by Trammell Crow Co. and Artis REIT took a year to find tenants as it was expected to be completed in June 2016 and they got tenants in June 2017. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Comments are rather mixed.

Artis REIT's portfolio is comprised of industrial, retail, and office space in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Artis REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT)... learn more on Wednesday, July 19, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Do Not Panic... learn more on Tuesday, July 18, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, July 14, 2017

TMX Group Ltd

I am posting early because I am going on a boat trip, although it might still be rained out. Hasn’t this summer been wonderful.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. My stock price testing shows some inconsistencies, but it would appear that the stock is getting expensive. I do not like the debt or Goodwill/Intangible situation. I personally would not consider buying this stock because of these situations. See my spreadsheet on TMX Group Ltd.

I do not own this stock of TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF). I looked at this stock in 2008 after I found it on a list of Strongest Dividend Growth stocks. I am interested in such stocks. However, this has not turned out to be a dividend growth stock after all.

Basically they stopped growing their dividends after 2007. They were mostly flat until 2016 when they increased the dividend by 12.5% and then this year the dividends were increased by 11.1%. Dividends are moderate with, until 2016 negligible growth. The current dividend yield is 2.86% with 5 and 10 year median dividend yields of 3.21% and 3.44%.

The 5 and 10 year dividend growth to the end of 2016 is 0.6% and 2.3% per year. The one to the end of 2017, if no further changes, is 4.6% and 2.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 is 46% with 5 year coverage of 107%. The DPR is expected to be around 50% in 2017 with 5 year coverage of 79%.

I think that the debt ratios for this stock are really bad. I would not invest in it because of it. I do not think that the Ontario Government would let the company fail, but that is not necessarily good for shareholders. The Liquidity Ratio is for 2016 is 1.00. If you add in cash flow after dividends it rises to only 1.01. The Debt Ratio is just 1.15. I would prefer both of these ratios to be at 1.50 or better for safety's sake.

Another thing that is worrisome is the Goodwill & Intangibles Assets/Market Cap Ratio is 1.10. That means that the market cap of this company (or what investors think this company is worth) is less than the value the company has assigned to Goodwill & Intangibles Assets. This is not good.

The Return on Equity (ROE) is all over the place. The ROE for 2016 is 6.7% but the 5 year median is 1.9%. The ROE on comprehensive income is slightly better with a 2016 ROE of 6.6% and a 5 year median of 3.3%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.69, 21.74 and 24.79. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.15, 18.46 and 22.94. The corresponding historical ones are 17.35, 21.74 and 25.05. The current P/E Ratio is 17.89 based on a stock price $69.94 and 2017 EPS estimate of $3.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap to reasonable, but below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $42.44. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.03, 1.42 and 1.63. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.80. The current P/B Ratio is 1.31 based on BV of $2955.5M, BVPS of $53.47 and a stock price of $69.94. The current ratio is 27% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The historical dividend yield is 3.20%. The current dividend yield is 2.86% based on dividends of $2.00 and a stock price of $69.94. The current dividend yield is 10.6% lower than the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 4.52. The current P/S Ratio is 5.19 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $745M, Revenue per Share estimate of $13.48 and a stock price of $69.94. The current ratio is some 14.7% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most are a Hold recommendation and the consensus recommendation would be a Hold. There are only 5 analysts following this stock and 4 give it a Hold. The 12 month stock target is $78.20. This implies a total return of 14.67% with 11.81% from capital gains and 2.86% from dividends.

Lucy Burton on The Telegraph quotes the boss of the TSX as saying that "You can't just survive as a small regional player". Aziz Abdel-Qader on Finance Magnates talks about TMX trading volumes. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool writes about this stock.

TMX Group Ltd. operates two national stock exchanges, Toronto Stock Exchange serving the senior equity market and TSX Venture Exchange serving the public venture equity market, Natural Gas Exchange (NGX), a North American exchange for the trading and clearing of natural gas and electricity contracts and Shorcan Brokers Limited, a fixed income inter-dealer broker. Its web site is here TMX Group Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF)... learn more on Monday, July 17, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Inter Pipeline Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Pipeline. The price seems reasonable at the present time. This would not be my favourite pipeline as I would be concerned about the Liquidity Ratios and the Dividend Payout Ratios. See my spreadsheet on Inter Pipeline Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF). In 2008, a friend had asked me about this pipeline and I had no information on it, so I investigated it. It is a utility and I follow lots of utility stocks.

The dividends are good with low to moderate dividend growth. The current dividends are 6.49%, with 5 year median and 10 year median dividend yields at 5.07% and 6.07%. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 10.3% and 6.9% per year.

Dividend growth is not what it used to be. For the stocks I follow 50% have dividend growth increasing, 48% have dividend growth decreasing and 2% have flat growth. So this stock is in the 50% of stocks that have increasing dividend growth. That is because the 5 year growth is better than the 10 year growth. But this is not the whole picture. Dividend growth slowed in 2016 with an increase of 6.1% and so far in 2017 dividend growth is lower at 3.8%.

Currently this company cannot afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 is 119% with 5 year coverage of 144%. Analysts do not see this being under 100% over the next few years either. This is cautionary note.

The debt ratios look really bad until you account for the credit facility which is not really short term and the current portion of the long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2016 is 0.13. When this ratio is below 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you add back in credit facility loans and current portion of long term debt it is 0.79. If you then add in cash flow after dividends it becomes 1.44. The problem with low Liquidity Ratios is that companies become vulnerable in bad times. This is a second cautionary note.

A positive note is the Return on Equity. The ROE for 2016 is 14.1% with a 5 year median ROE of 13.5%. The ROE has only been below 10% once in the past 5 years and twice in the past 10 years. However, the ROE on comprehensive income is lower at 10.6% for 2016 with a 5 year median of 10.6%.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.13, 18.72 and 22.78. The corresponding 10 year values are 13.24, 15.93 and 18.35. The corresponding historical values are 14.90, 18.16 and 20.55. The current P/E Ratio is 16.99 based on a stock price of $24.98 and 2017 EPS estimate of $1.47. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $17.12. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.26, 1.55 and 1.82. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.46 based on a stock price of $24.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.97. The current P/B Ratio is 2.82 based on BV of $3,261M, BVPS of $8.86 and a stock price of $24.98. The current P/B Ratio is some 5% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a historical median dividend yield is 8.77%. However, the very high dividend yields this stock had are mostly when it was starting to pay dividends some 20% years ago. The 10 year median dividend yield is lower at 6.07%. The current dividend yield is 6.49% based on dividends of $1.62 and a stock price of $24.98. The current dividends are some 7% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (or Revenue) Ratio of 4.31. The current P/S Ratio is 4.21 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $2,184M, Revenue per Share of $5.94 and a stock price of $24.98. The current P/S Ratio is some 2% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. The 12 month stock price target is $30.92. This implies a total return of 30.26% with 23.78% from capital gains and 6.49% from dividends based on a current stock price of $24.98.

Ryan Goldsman on Motley Fool talks about why he thinks this company is a currently good buy. Don Majors on Sports Perspectives talks about IPL insider Cory Wade Neufeld buying shares in this company. Cole Patterson on Simply Wall Street looks to see if IPL can afford their dividends. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. They talk about it being more tied to the oil sands than other pipelines.

Inter Pipeline is a major petroleum transportation, natural gas liquids extraction, and bulk liquid storage business based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Structured as a publicly traded limited partnership, Inter Pipeline owns and operates energy infrastructure assets in western Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and Ireland. The company is a limited partnership, not an income trust. Its web site is here Inter Pipeline Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Morneau Shepell Inc. (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF)... learn more on Friday, July 14, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Achievers... learn more on Thursday, July 13, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, July 10, 2017

Morneau Shepell Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. The results of my stock price testing seem to show that the current stock price is relatively expensive. Why you invest in financial stocks is because financial companies tend to make more money for shareholders than other types of companies. See my spreadsheet on Morneau Shepell Inc.

I do not own this stock of Morneau Shepell Inc. (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF). Every once in a while I go through the stocks that my brokerage, TD Waterhouse, is recommending to find promising new stocks. In February 2013 this stock was rated a buy by TD Waterhouse. It was under Diversified Financials.

I note that there is lots of insider selling with the rate at 0.16% of market cap over the past year. This is relatively high. The last selling was in March of 2017. The problem with insider selling is that it may occur unrelatedly to how insider feels about where the company is going.

The investors have done better in capital gains than in dividend growth. The total return over the past 5 and 10 years to the end of 2016 is 18.97% and 12.86% per year with 12.95% and 6.31% per year in capital gain and 6.02% and 6.56% per year in dividends. The total return to date is 15.70% and 8.65% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The portion attributable to capital is 10.58% and 3.67% per year and to dividends 5.12% and 4.98% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. (Note that long term total return over 8% is good.)

The reason that this has been no dividend growth recently is because this stock used to be an income trust stock. When it became a corporation, it reduced its dividends by 17%. It should probably have reduced it more because they were paying out too much of the EPS from 2011. It is only in 2016 that the Dividend Payout Ratio is lower than 100% and it was then 85%. The 5 year payout is 162%. I am hoping that this will again become a dividend growth stock now that the DPR is lower. Some analysts do expect dividend growth over the next couple of years.

The dividend yield has been moderate (2 to 3%) to good (above 4%). The current dividend is in the moderate range at 3.71%. The 5 year median dividend yield at 4.95% is in the good range. Going forward, I would think that once they start increasing the dividends again this stock will have moderate dividends and moderate dividend increases (8% to 15% range).

The positive is the good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio for 2016 was 1.66 with a 5 year median of 1.83. The Debt Ratio for 2016 was 1.88 with a 5 year median 1.87. For these ratios ones of 1.50 or better is best and the company consistently has good debt ratios.

The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2016 are 2.14 and 1.14 with 5 year median of 1.92 and 0.92. These are rather good for a Financial Services company. For these ratios lower is better.

A negative for this stock is the rather low Return on Equity (ROE). The ROE has never been higher than 7.9% since the stock opened on the TSX in 2005. The ROE for 2016 was 7.2% with a 5 year median of 6.1%. The ROE on comprehensive income is a bit better with the one for 2016 at 7.3% and a 5 year median of 6.6%. (I like companies where the ROE is at least 10% or mostly at or above 10%.)

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 27.88, 34.66 and 27.88. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 26.14, 32.79 and 36.07. The current P/E Ratio is 23.08 based on a stock price of $21.00 and 2017 EPS estimate of $0.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, I think that these P/E Ratios are high ones for a Financial Services stock.

I get a Graham price of $11.81. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.36, 1.50 and 1.80. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current P/B Ratio is 3.08 a value some 80% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on BV of $362.87M, BVPS of $6.82 and a stock price of $21.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an adjusted historical median dividend yield of 5.84%. The current dividend yield is 3.71%. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.78 and a stock price of $21.00. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.95%. The historical and 5 year median dividend yields are higher than the current dividend yield by 46% and 24% respectively. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I looked at the 5 year median and an adjusted historical dividend yield as this stock used to be an income trust. Income trust companies had higher dividend yield than corporations. This company which is now a corporation will never again have the high dividend yields it did as an income trust. I adjusted the historical yields for the decrease in dividends that occurred when this company became a corporation.

I get a 10 year median P/S Ratio of 1.41. The current P/S Ratio is 1.77 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $632M, Revenue per Share estimate of $11.87 and stock price of $21.00. The current P/S Ratio is some 25% above the 10 year median P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. Most are a Buy recommendation and the consensus is a Buy recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $22.90. This implies a total return of 12.76% with 3.71% from dividends and 9.05% from capital gains based on a stock price of $21.00. (Note that this total return excludes any commission you may pay to buy this stock.)

JCTY Staff Writer says on JCTY News that the Piotroski F-Score on this stock is 8 which indicates a strong financial firm. Ryan Goldsman on Motley Fool thinks this stock is boring and will not produce high future returns. See what analysts say about this company on Stock Chase. They mostly like it.

Morneau Shepell Inc. provides human resource consulting and outsourcing services. The firm delivers solutions to assist employers in managing the financial security, health and productivity of their employees. The company has business in Canada and US. Its web site is here Morneau Shepell Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC- EMLAF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF)... learn more on Wednesday, July 12, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about New Flyer Industries Inc. ....learn more on Tuesday, July 11, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, July 7, 2017

Empire Company Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth consumer. Based on the dividend yield testing, this stock is relatively cheap. When earnings crater it is probably the best measuring for stock price. Revenue seems to be holding up rather well. Their problems basically stem from their purchase of Safeway. I think that the stock price is relatively low, but agree with analysts that think it will be a long recovery. See my spreadsheet on Empire Company Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF). I have known about this stock for some time, but I had not had the opportunity to follow it before.

This stock has a rather low dividend yield and low growth. The current dividend yield is 1.90% but the historical median is 1.45% and the 10 year median is 1.52%. The current dividend is really at the top range for this stock. The dividend growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 6.5% and 7.4% per year. This is rather a low growth rate. However, dividend growth has been better in the past with growth rather moderate (in the 8 to 15% range).

They can afford their dividends and the recent modest dividend increases. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2016 is 70.7%, but the 5 year coverage is 28%. The CFPS Dividend Payout Ratio is 13.8% for 2016 with 5 year coverage of 9.3%. I do not see any cut to the dividend, but the dividend growth will be modest over the next while. The last dividend increase was in 2017 and was for 2.5%.

I think of the debt ratios that the Liquidity Ratio is rather low. The one for 2016 was 0.87 with a 5 year median of 0.96. This means that the current assets cannot cover current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio is just 1.11 and has a 5 year median of 1.28. The problem of a low Liquidity Ratio is that a company might get into financial difficulties in bad times.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are 14.32, 17.60 and 20.88. The 10 year values are 10.52, 11.62 and 13.12. The historical values are 9.80, 11.62 and 13.53. The current P/E Ratio is 78.89 based on a stock price of $22.09 and 2017 EPS estimate of $0.28. This stock price testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, I do wonder in this case how good or valid this test is. The expected earnings for 2017 are very low for what this company usually earns. When earnings are expected to improve in 2018 to $1.15 the P/E Ratio is 19.21. This is a little high but a lot better than 78.89. Also the company is using an adjusted EPS for which the 2017 estimate is $0.86. This gives a P/E of 25.69 which is still rather high.

I get a Graham Price of $9.19. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.72, 0.78 and 0.90. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.40 based on a stock price $22.09. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.20. The current P/B Ratio is 1.65 a value some 37% higher than the 10 year median. The current P/B Ratio is based on BV of $3,644.2M, BVPS of $13.41 and a stock price of $22.09. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The current dividend yield is 1.90%. The historical median is 1.45% a value some 31% lower. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.42 and a stock price of $22.09. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Note that this historical high dividend yield is 1.99%.

I get a 10 year median P/S Ratio of $0.23. The current P/S Ratio is 0.25 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $24,159, Revenue per Share of $88.93 and a stock price of $22.09. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations on this company I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy, but the consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price target is $22.55. This implies a total return of $3.98% with 2.08% from capital gains and 1.90% from dividends.

Joey Frenette on Motley Fool talks about how Medline has started to turn the company around, but he thinks the current price is too high. Daniel Jordon on Sports Perspectives talks about Raymond James Financial giving the company a market perform (Hold) rating and has lifted the 12 month stock price target to $20.00 from $16.00. There is a Canadian Press article on this company posted on the Toronto Star. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. They do not particularly like this company.

Do not forgot that to read the full reports from Motley Fool you have to exit and then go back into the report using the arrows at the top left of your browser. If you click on it from my site you might want to go forward to say Google Search site, then back to Motley Fool's article.

Empire Company Limited is engaged in the business of food retailing and related real estate. The Company operates through two segments: Food Retailing and Investments and Other Operations. The Company's Investments and Other Operations segment includes its equity investments in real estate, which are focused on the ownership of income-producing retail, office and mixed-use properties through an equity accounted ownership interest in Crombie REIT and residential land development in select communities in Ontario, Western Canada and the United States through its investments in Genstar. Its web site is here Empire Company Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Morneau Shepell Inc. (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF)... learn more on Monday, July 10, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Suncor Energy Inc.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Energy. Long term investors seem to have done well with this stock. Price might still be relatively reasonable. See my spreadsheet on Suncor Energy Inc.

I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU. PCA and SU merged in 2009. I also note that a number of Canadian Equity Funds have this stock listed in their top 10 holdings.

This stock currently has a very high dividend at 3.38%. Recently they have had a hard time covering the dividend with EPS. There was an earrings loss in 2015 and dividend coverage was 430%, which means they paid out for more than they earned. However, the 5 year Dividend Payout Ratio is 89%, which is not that bad. Analysts expect dividends to be covered handily in 2017 with an estimate DPR of 60%.

Shareholders have done well lately with this stock. Over the past 5 and 10 years long time shareholders would have made 10.92% and 4.72% per year total return. Because I have the data, I also looked at 15 and 20 year total return. These are at 8.59% and 10.44% per year. Total return includes capital gains and dividends. It would seem that the 10 year total return is the lowest.

With oil and gas stocks there is a lot of volatility. So, debt ratios are quite important. The Liquidity Ratio for 2016 is 1.36 with a 5 year median of 1.46. If you added in cash flow after dividends, the ratios are much better with a ratio of 1.82 for 2016 and a 5 year median of 2.24. The Debt Ratio for 2016 was 2.01 and this has a 5 year median of 2.05.

Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2016 are 1.99 and 0.99 with a 5 year median of 1.96 and 0.96. These are good as is the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2016 of 0.22.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.31, 17.98 and 20.65. The 10 year values are 12.94, 16.85 and 21.99. The historical values are 19.93, 26.21 and 30.93. You do not often see the historical ratios higher than the more recent ones. The current P/E Ratio is 17.71 based on a stock price of $37.89 and 2017 EPS estimate of $2.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $36.84. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.83, 1.01 and 1.28. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.05 based on a stock price of $37.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.39 based on BV of $45,515M, BVPS of $27.29 and a stock price of $37.89. The current P/B Ratio is some 3% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median (but not much above the median).

The historical dividend yield is 0.62%. This is because the dividends started out very low and have been increasing. Also, do not forget that my spreadsheet is tracing the company from PCA which merged with SU in 2009. The current dividend is 3.38% based on dividends of $1.28 and a stock price of $37.89. This testing suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.

The 5 year dividend yield is 2.61%. This is still quite a bit lower than the current dividend yield of 3.38%. The current dividend yield at 3.38% is some 29% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield. This still suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year P/S Ratio is 1.40. The current P/S Ratio is 1.86 based on 2017 Revenue estimate of $33,952M, Revenue per Share of 20.36 and a currently stock price of $37.89. The current P/S Ratio is some 33% higher than the 10 year median P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform Recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $47.68. This implies a total return of 29.22% with 3.38% from dividends and 25.84% from capital gains.

Jason Phillips talks about owning this company or Imperial Oil in your portfolio on Motley Fool. Reb123z on Weekly Hub talks about what analysts are saying about this stock. Note this is US coverage and US prices. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase.

Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Suncor is also developing a growing renewable energy portfolio. Their international and offshore business includes operations in the North Sea (United Kingdom, Netherlands and Norway) and the East Coast of Canada. They are also in Libya, Syria and Trinidad and Tobago. Its web site is here Suncor Energy Inc. The mostly like this company.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC- EMLAF)... learn more on July 7, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks July 2017... learn more on July 6, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, July 3, 2017

Premium Brands Holdings Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock has recently had a great run but it seems currently to have lost it momentum. It would seem to be expensive. All my tests show that the current stock price is relatively expensive. See my spreadsheet on Premium Brands Holdings Corp.

I do not own this stock of Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF). I was looking for another stock to follow and I found this is one of the top stocks in TD Bank's Canadian Equity Fund.

This company used to be an income trust. It did not really reduce it dividends when it became a corporation, but changed the frequency from monthly to quarterly. Dividends were rather flat and then lately it has increased the dividends. The last dividend increase was in 2017 and the increase was for 10.5%. The growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 4.8% and 2.4% per year.

The company was not covering their dividends with EPS until 2016. In that year the Dividend Payout Ratio was 62%. In the previous year the cover ages at 274%. It is expected that the DPR will be good going forward from 2017.

The current dividend yield is low at just 1.81%. In the past it was very high with an historical high of over 17% and with an historical median of 8.05%. It might settle into a stock with a moderate dividend with moderate growth. That would be a dividend in the 2% range and increases around 10 to 12%.

The company has good debt ratios currently. The Liquidity Ratio for 2016 is 2.00. The Debt Ratio for 2016 is 2.55 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2016 are 2.63 and 1.63. It did not always have good debt ratios. From 2009 to 2013, the Liquidity Ratio was below 1.50 and sometimes below 1.50. In the same time period the Debt Ratio was below 1.50.

The Return on Equity for 2016 was good at 16.2%, but the 5 year median is 6.1%. This is because the ROE has been low over the past 5 year. The ROE was slightly better on comprehensive income with a 2016 ROE of 15.1% and a 5 year median of 8.6%. During the past 5 years the Revenue has been going up, the problem was that the EPS was not.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 28.73, 33.58 and 38.42. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.88, 22.87 and 25.71. The historical ratios are 11.21, 13.91 and 15.42. It would appear that a big component of the rise in stock price has been a rise in P/E Ratio. The current P/E Ratio is 30.21 based on a stock price of $93.04 and 2017 EPS estimate of $3.08. This is a rather high P/E Ratio and it would suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham price of 31.56. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.21, 1.33 and 1.44. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.95 based on a stock price of $93.04. This stock price testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.79. The current ratio is 6.47 based on Book Value of $426.8M, $14.37 per share and a stock price of $93.04. The current P/B Ratio is some 262% higher than the 10 year median. This stock price testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The current dividend yield is 1.81% based on dividends of $1.68 and a stock price of $93.04. I cannot use the historical median as this stock was an income trust and reached rates it will probably never get to again. However, the 5 year median is 5.50%. This is some 67% above the current dividend yield. This stock price testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 0.41. The current P/S Ratio is 1.25 based on a stock price of $93.04 and 2017 Revenue estimate of $2,215M and Revenue per share of $74.58. This stock price testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold, but Buy is the consensus recommendations. The 12 month stock price is $93.09. This implies a total return of 1.86% with 1.81% from dividends and 0.05% from capital gain based on a current Price of $93.04.

Harper Lund on Chaffey Breeze talks about BMO giving this stock a market perform (Hold) and a target price of $97.00. In the meantime RY lifted their target to $100.00 and gave it a recommendation of Outperform (Buy). Ryan Vanzo of Motley Fools wrote about this stock last year. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They mostly like it.

Premium Brands Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, owns a range of specialty food manufacturing and premium food distribution and wholesale businesses with operations in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nevada, Ohio and Washington State.. Its web site is here Premium Brands Holdings Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU)... learn more on Wednesday, July 5, 2017 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy July 2017... learn more on Tuesday, July 4, 2017 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.