Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock has mostly done fine for shareholders. The dividend yield has been quite good. It is a utility and so mainly a safe stock to buy. Currently, the price seems to be rather expensive.
I do not own this stock of Keyera Corp (TSX-KEY, OTC-KEYUF). I started to review some of the stock recommended by Jennifer Dowty from a column she wrote and I reviewed in February 2010 on Dividends and Special Dividends. The title of the article in Investor’s Digest was Dividend Stocks: Buy, Hold and Collect. Jennifer worked as a Portfolio Manager for Manulife Asset Management Limited after working for Investor's digest.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they have a lot of cash. They got this from selling shares. They seem to be on a buying streak. EPS lower in 2026 because of Acquisition and Integration costs.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,006.50 you would have bought 25 shares at $40.26 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $465.31 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,100.00. Your total return would have been $1,565.31. This would be a total return of 5.29% per year with 0.89% from capital gain and 4.40% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40.26 | $1,006.50 | 25 | 10 | $465.31 | $1,100.00 | $1,565.31 |
In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the second quarter in 2026 and expected growth over this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth | 127.52% | 17.87% | 4.88% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AFFO Growth | -1.53% | -0.31% | -26.17% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 596.98% | 47.45% | -11.61% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 12.55% | 2.39% | -38.45% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 10.42% | 2.00% | 4.01% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 94.52% | 14.23% | 26.77% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | 171.87% | 10.52% | 33.41% | <-this year |
| 10 | AFFO Growth | 13.03% | 1.23% | -6.85% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 114.11% | 7.91% | 38.78% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 19.50% | 1.80% | 20.57% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | 51.70% | 4.26% | 4.39% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | 9.29% | 0.89% | 45.00% | <-this year |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges at 4.03%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.13%, 5.68% and 5.94%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 2% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2026 and it was for 4.2%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) mostly fine as shown by AFFO and FFO. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) are far too high at 112% with 5 year coverage at 113%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is fine at 66% with 5 year coverage at 61%. The DPR for 2025 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is fine at 57% with 5 year coverage at 51%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is too high at 57% with 5 year coverage at 51%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 174% with 5 year coverage at 138%. FCF varies in 2025 from $279M to $571M and I am using $279M.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 112.17% | 113.05% |
| AFFO | 66.04% | 61.18% |
| FFO | 56.92% | 51.30% |
| CFPS | 56.94% | 51.22% |
| FCF | 174.17% | 137.66% |
Debt Ratios need improving, but utilities tend to have high debt loads. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is fine at 0.59 and currently at 0.54. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.76 and low at 1.22 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are good at 1.85 and currently still low at 1.42. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is low at 1.27 and 1.42 currently. I prefer these ratios to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are too high at 4.72 and 3.72 and currently at 3.48 and 2.48. I prefer these rates below 3.00 and 2.00. However, utilities tend to have rather high debt loads.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| Intang/GW | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Liquidity | 1.76 | 1.22 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.85 | 1.42 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.27 | 1.40 |
| Leverage | 4.72 | 3.48 |
| D/E Ratio | 3.72 | 2.48 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 2.00% | 21.14% | 14.23% | 6.91% |
| 2015 | 10 | 4.26% | 5.29% | 0.89% | 4.40% |
| 2010 | 15 | 5.88% | 12.18% | 6.31% | 5.88% |
| 2005 | 20 | 6.09% | 13.77% | 7.24% | 6.53% |
| 2002 | 23 | 9.78% | 18.92% | 9.92% | 9.01% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.31, 20.12 and 23.82. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.41, 20.64 and 23.87. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.04, 21.17 and 24.26. The current ratio is 25.19 based on a stock price of $55.78 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $2.21. The current ratio is above the high ratio for the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 9.29, 10.62 and 11.95. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.32, 10.90 and 12.60. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.35, 11.34 and 13.95. The current ratio is 18.66 based on a stock price of $55.78 and AFFO estimate for 2026 of $2.99. The current ratio is above the high ratio for the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Funds from Operations Ratios are 7.40, 8.54 and 10.15. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.54, 9.13 and 10.73. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.77, 9.74 and 11.72. The current ratio is 13.19 based on a stock price of $55.78 and FFO estimate for 2026 of $4.23. The current ratio is above the high ratio for the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $33.87. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.28, 1.59 and 1.86. The current ratio is 1.65 based on a stock price of $55.78. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.56. The current ratio is 2.42 based on a Book Value of $5,281M, Book Value per Share of $23.03 and a stock price of $55.78. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.41. The current ratio is 13.70 based on Cash Flow per share of $4.07, Cash Flow of $934M and a stock price of 55.78. The current ratio is 46% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.94%. The current dividend yield is 4.03% based on dividends of $2.25 and a stock price of $55.78. The current dividend yield is 32% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.68%. The current dividend yield is 4.03% based on dividends of $2.25 and a stock price of $55.78. The current dividend yield is 28% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.47. The current P/S Ratio is 1.40 based on a stock price of $55.78, Revenue estimate for 2026 of $9,144M and Revenue per Share of 39.88. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is relatively expensive and I generally go with this test. I like it confirmed by the P/S Ratio test, but that test says the stock price is reasonable. The other tests vary from reasonable and below the median to expensive.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7), Buy (5), Hold (3). The consensus is a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $63.80 with a high of $70.00 and low of $56.00. the consensus stock price of $63.80 implies a total return of 18.41% with 14.38% from capital gains and 4.03% from dividends based on a current stock price of $55.78.
All but one analyst on Stock Chase gives this stock a buy. The Do Not Buy says that for the last 15 years, everyone has said that natural gas is going to be the play. But it's never really come to fruition. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says that . Keyera offers a 4.3% yield backed by an expanding fee-based Canadian energy infrastructure business. He also says it gives you a dependable income. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says that you should change your TFSA into a passive income machine. This is one of the stocks he likes. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2025. The company put out a Press Release about their second quarter of 2026.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about 3 Canadian companies and LNG with India. Guru Focus via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Guru Focus gives interesting reviews of stocks. Simply Wall Street has 4 warnings on this stock of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 4.12% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flows; profit margins (5%) are lower than last year (7.3%); and shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Keyera Corp is a midstream energy business that operates out of Alberta. Its primary lines of business consist of the gathering and processing of natural gas in western Canada, the storage, transportation, and liquids blending for natural gas liquids and crude oil, and the marketing of natural gas liquids, iso-octane, and crude oil. Its web site is here Keyera Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Safi Silver Corp (TSX-SF, OTC-PNTZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Cenovus Energy Inc (TSX-CVE, NYSE-CVE) ... learn more on Monday, October 26, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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