I looked at my spreadsheet for what I look for. The 10 year dividend yield is 1.96% and current yield of 5.28% based on a stock price of $44.51 and dividends of $2.35 is 169% above that. The expected Revenue for 2025 is $38,655M, Revenue per Share at $19.03 for a P/S Ratio of 2.34 compared to 10 year P/S Ratio of 4.27 and a stock price of $44.51. The current ratio is 45% below the 10 year median ratio, so P/S Ratio test confirms the Dividend yield test. The stock was slightly cheaper at $44.43 when I bought.
Sound bite for Twitter is: Dividend Growth Telecom. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap, although it could just be reasonable. Debt Ratios are awful. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high and this needs to be corrected. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on BCE Inc.
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock certainly riskier than when I first bought it in the 1980’s. They certainly cannot currently afford the dividends that they are paying. I personally think it is best when dividends are in the 40% range when reinvestment into the company is also possible. Even if dividends are cut by 50%, the DPR will still be too high. There are certainly headwinds for Telecoms in Canada at this time. However, I still feel that my investment in BCE is still variable, so I keep this investment. The stock is testing as cheap.
I own this stock of BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE). This is one of first stocks I bought, which was in 1982. At that time, it was called an orphan and widow stock. It is not easy to figure out what I have earned on this stock because it has spun off shares for Nortel and Bell Aliant. The annoying thing with their spin offs is you always end up with an odd number of shares.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed earnings is down mainly due to a write-off of Impairment of Assets. It is interesting that the TD Cowen report on BCE is calling for a 50% cut in the dividend to $2.00 as a favourable assumption. I have this stock in Quicken since 1987, some 37 years. I have made a total return of 12.12% per year with 4.16% from capital gains and 7.96% from dividends. I am including Nortel and Bell Aliant in this. They were spun off and I later sold them. I think I did so well because I sold half my Nortel at a very good price.
If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,012.32 you would have bought 19 shares at $53.28 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $615.22 in dividends. The stock would be worth $633.08. Your total return would have been $1,248.30. This would be a total return of 2.70% per year with 4.59% from capital loss and 7.28% from dividends.
Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$53.28 | $1,012.32 | 19 | 10 | $615.22 | $633.08 | $1,248.30 |
The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is high (7% and higher) at 12.37%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.71% and 5.47%. The historical dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.31%. The dividend increases are low (below 8% per year) at 4.8% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 3.10%. Note: that a lot of people think that dividends will be and should be cut.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high and this needs to be corrected. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 2200% with 5 year coverage at 162%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is too high at 130% with 5 year coverage at 115%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 35% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF 1) is too high at 125% with 5 year coverage at 125%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow 2 (FCF 2) is too high at 125% with 5 year coverage at 100%.
Item | Cur | 5 Years |
---|---|---|
EPS | 2200.00% | 162.33% |
AEPS | 130.26% | 115.04% |
CFPS | 34.58% | 33.30% |
FCF 1 | 125.10% | 124.80% |
FCF 2 | 125.10% | 99.70% |
Debt Ratios are awful. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is far too high at 1.08 and currently at 1.12. The Intangible Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is too high at 0.89 and currently at 0.92. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is far too low at 0.60 and 0.60 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still too low at 0.83 and currently at 0.85. If you add back the current portion of the long term debt the ratio is fine at 1.71 and currently at 1.75. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is low at 1.31 and 1.31 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are far too high at 4.23 and 3.23 and currently at 4.23 and 3.23.
Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
---|---|---|
Lg Term R | 1.08 | 1.12 |
Intang/GW | 0.89 | 0.92 |
Liquidity | 0.60 | 0.60 |
Liq. + CF | 0.83 | 0.84 |
Liq. + CF + D | 1.71 | 1.75 |
Debt Ratio | 1.31 | 1.31 |
Leverage | 4.23 | 4.23 |
D/E Ratio | 3.23 | 3.23 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 42 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 5 | 4.80% | -3.51% | -11.15% | 7.63% |
2014 | 10 | 4.98% | 2.70% | -4.59% | 7.28% |
2009 | 15 | 6.32% | 9.54% | 0.93% | 8.61% |
2004 | 20 | 6.15% | 7.66% | 0.71% | 6.95% |
1999 | 25 | 6.41% | -1.34% | -4.86% | 3.52% |
1994 | 30 | 7.83% | 7.43% | 1.73% | 5.70% |
1989 | 35 | 6.90% | 6.17% | 1.45% | 4.72% |
1984 | 40 | 6.36% | 6.49% | 1.97% | 4.52% |
1982 | 42 | 6.33% | 8.61% | 3.23% | 5.38% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.14, 21.83 and 24.75. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.39, 19.77 and 21.28. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.05, 17.72 and 19.07. The current ratio is 13.07 based on a stock price of $32.26 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $2.47. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.81, 19.00 and 20.99. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.51, 17.31 and 18.54. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.38, 15.75 and 17.82. The current ratio is 11.73 based on a Stock Price of $32.26 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $2.75. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $30.15. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.42, 1.61 and 1.76. The current ratio is 1.07 based on a stock price of $32.26. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.16. The current ratio is 2.20 based on a Book Value of $13,404M, Book Value per Share of $14.69 and a stock price of $32.26. This ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $15.97, but this analyst calculates the Book Value differently than I and under this method the 10 year median ratio is 2.57. This BVPS estimate implies a ratio of 2.02 based on a stock price of $32.26 and with Book Value of $14,569M. This ratio is 21% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.96. The current ratio is 4.06 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $7.95 and a stock price of $32.26. This ratio is 42% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.31%. The current dividend yield is 12.37% based on dividends of $3.99 and a stock price of $32.26. The current dividend yield is 187% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.47%. The current dividend yield is 12.37% based on dividends of $3.99 and a stock price of $32.26. The current dividend yield is 126% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Since most people think that the dividend will be cut by 50%, if this happened the current yield would be 6.18% based on dividends of $2.00. This yield would be 13% above the 10 year median ratio. In this case, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. The DPR on EPS would be still high at 80% and DPR on AEPS at 73%. T
he 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.26. The current P/S Ratio is 1.21 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 is $24,334M, Revenue per Share of $26.67 and a stock price of $32.26. The current ratio is 47% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap, although it could just be reasonable. The dividend yields tests are saying that the stock price is cheap. However, if the dividends are cut in half, the 10 year dividend yield test says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. All the other tests are showing the stock price as cheap.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find that the recommendations are all over the place. The analysts’ recommendations are Strong Buy (1), Buy (1), Hold (9), Underperform (4) and Sell (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $35.50 with a high of $45.00 and low of $29.00. The consensus recommendation of $35.50 implies a total return of 22.41% with 10.04% from capital gains and 12.37% from dividends.
Analysts in 2025 on Stock Chase has various opinions on this company. Lots think it would be a positive if dividends were cut. They think that it is a challenging time for telecoms. Puja Tayal on Motley Fool thinks this is a good long term investment, but there is a risk of a dividend cut. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says despite headwinds, BCE has some strengths. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2024 results.
Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and rates it a Hold. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says Revenue was in line with estimates, but earnings were way off. Simply Wall Street has 4 warnings on this stock of dividend of 12.08% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flows; large one-off items impacting financial results; profit margins (0.7%) are lower than last year (8.4%); has a high level of debt. Note that Adjusted EPS is used because of large one-off items.
BCE provides wireless, broadband, television, and landline phone services in Canada. It is one of the Big Three national wireless carriers. BCE has a media segment that holds television, radio, and digital media assets. Its web site is here BCE Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was First National Financial Corporation (TSX-FN, OTC-FNLIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF) ... learn more on Friday, April 4, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy April 2025.... learn more on Thursday, April 3, 2025 around 5 pm.
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