Monday, August 8, 2022

Andrew Peller Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumers. The stock price is probably cheap, so there is probably a good buying opportunity. Dividend Payout Ratios are expected to improve in the near future. Most debt ratios are fine, but the Liquidity Ratio is very good. See my spreadsheet on Andrew Peller Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably cheap. It is certainly below the median. For most years, shareholders have made a reasonable return. I think a reasonable long term return on a stock is a total return of 8% per year. You probably need to buy this stock at a low to get a good return. The stock is down recently, but so are most stocks.

I do not own this stock of Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF). This stock was on Mike Higgs' dividend growth stock list. I owned this stock as Andres Wines Ltd between 1996 and 2000. When I held this stock, it was called Andres Wines Ltd. This company has a Financial Year ending March 31 each year. The Financial year I am covering is for March 31, 2022.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company did not have a good year in 2022. Sales were down, but most costs were up. This ended with EPS down some 55% from last year. There are few analysts following this stock.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1001.30 you would have bought 323 shares at $3.10 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $560.63 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,635.68. Your total return would have been $3,196.31.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$3.10 $1,001.30 323 10 $560.63 $2,635.68 $3,196.31

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.00%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 2.05%, 2.15% and 3.58%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 8.54% per year over the past 5 years. Prior growth is lower.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 84% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 203% with 5 year coverage at 66%. The DPR for AEPS for 2023 is expected to drop to 62% and then in 2024 to 46%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 23%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 463% with 5 year coverage at 64%. However, sites do not agree on what the FCF is.

Debt Ratios are fine. Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.61. It is fine, but is better if at 0.50 or lower. The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 4.34. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.91. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are fine at 2.10 and 1.10.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 37 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 8.54% -4.87% -6.95% 2.08%
2011 10 7.44% 13.71% 10.16% 3.55%
2006 15 7.25% 7.52% 4.90% 2.62%
2001 20 6.25% 11.34% 7.92% 3.42%
1996 25 5.29% 9.53% 6.42% 3.11%
1991 30 4.39% 11.09% 6.45% 4.64%
1986 35 3.86% 6.02% 3.51% 2.51%
1984 37 8.39% 5.11% 3.27%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.32, 21.22 and 27.49. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.98, 16.96 and 21.21. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.21, 13.40 and 14.81. The current P/E Ratio is 23.65 based on a stock price of $6.15 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.26. This ratio is above the 10 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Adjusted Earning per Share data. The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.75, 21.81 and 27.88. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.79, 16.74 and 21.63. The current ratio is 15.38 based on a stock price of $6.15 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $0.40. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $6.01. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.84, 1.25 and 1.64. The current ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price of $6.15. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current P/B Ratio is 1.00 based on a Book Value of $266M, Book Value per Share of $6.18 and a stock price of $6.15. The current ratio is 42% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.04. The current P/CF ratio is 12.67 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $0.49, Cash Flow of $20.9M and a stock price $6.15. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.58%. The current dividend yield is 4.00% based on a stock price of $6.15 and dividends of $0.246. The current dividend yield is 12% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.15%. The current dividend yield is 4.00% based on a stock price of $6.15 and dividends of $0.246. The current dividend yield is 85% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.05. The current P/S Ratio is 0.68 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $389M, Revenue per Share of $9.02 and a stock price of $6.15. The current ratio is 35% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The 10 year dividend yield test and the P/S Ratio test shows this result. Most of the other good tests is showing the stock price as reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $8.75. (Reuters). The 12 month stock price points to a total return of 46.28% with 42.28% from capital gains and 4.00% from dividends.

Several analysts on Stock Chase expect the company’s results to improve now that we are past the pandemic. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool says that this stock is almost in oversold territory. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says that this company suffered because of closures of restaurants and hospitality businesses because of the pandemic. The company reports on their fourth quarter via Newswire. The company reports on the first quarter of 2023 via a Press Release.

Simply Wall Street reports on this company via Yahoo Financial. Simply wall Street list 5 warnings on this stock of earnings have declined by 7.9% per year over past 5 years; interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 4.24% is not well covered by earnings; large one-off items impacting financial results and profit margins (3.3%) are lower than last year (7.1%).

Andrew Peller Ltd is a wine producing company. It is engaged in the production and marketing of wine and spirit products in Canada. The Company owns and operates over 100 well-positioned independent retail locations in Ontario under The Wine Shop, Wine Country Vintners, and Wine Country Merchants store. Its web site is here Andrew Peller Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Evertz Technologies Ltd (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 10, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Three Dividend All Stars.... learn more on Tuesday, August 9, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, August 5, 2022

BlackBerry Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Canadian Tech Stock. Stock price is testing as expensive. Debt Ratios are good. Both the CEO and CFO has purchased shares over the past year. See my spreadsheet on BlackBerry Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock testing is showing the stock price as expensive. The company does not seem to be making much progress as far as earnings and revenue is concerned. Although analysts expect revenue to pick up in this financial year. Who knows if this will ever be a good tech stock again?

I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB), but I used to. I bought this stock for capital gain. I first bought it in 1999 and then some more in 2000. I sold some in 2006 and 2007 to lock in some profit. I sold the rest of my stock in 2010. I had the stock for some 10 years and made a total return of $20% per year.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this stock is also reporting on Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS). The AEPS is better than EPS, but still in 2022, they had an earnings loss. The financial year on this stock ends February 28, so the Financial Year I am looking at is February 28, 2022.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,006.40 you would have bought 68 shares at $14.80 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $0 in dividends. The stock would be worth $803.76. Your total return would have been $803.76.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$14.80 $1,006.40 68 10 $0.00 $803.76 $803.76

This stock pays no dividends and has never paid any dividends.

Debt Ratios are good. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good and low at 0.13. The Liquidity Ratio is high and good at 2.63. The Debt Ratio is high and good at 2.54. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.65 and 0.65.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 0.00% 5.19% 5.19% 0.00%
2011 10 0.00% -2.22% -2.22% 0.00%
2006 15 0.00% -9.13% -9.13% 0.00%
2001 20 0.00% 3.20% 3.20% 0.00%
1996 25 0.00% 9.55% 9.55% 0.00%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2021 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 0.00% 6.30% 6.30% 0.00%
2011 10 0.00% -4.29% -4.29% 0.00%
2006 15 0.00% -9.61% -9.61% 0.00%
2001 20 0.00% 4.40% 4.40% 0.00%
1996 25 0.00% 9.90% 9.90% 0.00%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and so useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.42, 14.69 and 19.58. The current P/E Ratio is negative so cannot be used in testing.

I do have Adjusted Earnings per Share data. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/AEPS Ratios are 61.55, 91.00 and 131.88. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The AEPS values for 2023 is expected to be negative. There is no valid testing for P/AEPS Ratios.

I guess a Graham Price of $2.32. It is a guess because of the number of years with earnings losses. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 1.03 and 1.34. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.73 based on a stock price of $8.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. This testing is done is CDN$. A P/GP Ratio of 3.73 is a very high ratio.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.78 based on a Book Value of $1,385M, Book Value per Share of $2.40 and a stock price of $6.67. The current ratio is 59% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in US$, but you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.10. The current P/CF Ratio is 37.06 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $0.18, Cash Flow of $104M and a stock price of $6.67. The current is 422% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in US$, but you will get a similar result in CDN$.

This stock has no dividends, so I cannot do any dividend yield testing.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.92. The current P/S Ratio is 4.03 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $954M, Revenue per Share of $1.66 and a stock price of $6.67. The current ratio is 38% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in US$, but you will get a similar result in CDN$. The problem is declining Revenue.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. This is showing by the P/S Ratio test. Also, the P/B Ratio and P/CF Ratio tests, which are good clean test, are also showing that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), Hold (4) and Sell (3). The consensus is Underperform. Analysts seem to have no enthusiasm for this stock. The 12 month stock price consensus is $7.76 CDN$ ($6.04 US$). This implies a total loss of 10.04% with all the loss from a capital loss.

The analysts’ recommendations for 2020 on Stock Chase are all Do Not Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Karen Thomas Motley Fool thinks this stock is current a very attractive bargain. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool thinks this company will benefit from high spending on cybersecurity. The company reports on Newswire their fourth quarter results. The company reports on Newswire their first quarter of 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street reviews this stock on Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street gives two warning signs for this company of currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. Insiders are not selling; it looks like they are when they do not pick up all their stock options.

BlackBerry Ltd, once known for being the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, is now exclusively a software provider with a stated goal of end-to-end secure communication for enterprises. Its web site is here BlackBerry Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF) ... learn more on Monday, August 8, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Stingray Digital Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is relatively cheap. Debt Ratios need improving. Dividends have been flat lately because they the DPR was getting too high. See my spreadsheet on Stingray Digital Group Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is currently cheap. I own shares in my TFSA, which is my fooling around money. I bought some more shares in this company today for my TFSA account. This stock is about music and I do not think that people are going to stop listening to music.

I own this stock of Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE). I was following Newfoundland Capital Corp and Stingray Bought them out. Also, I read the blub on CEO, Eric Boyko. The site says he is an entrepreneur with nearly two decades of experience with start-ups. Mr. Boyko has extensive expertise in early stage business innovations. The financial year for this company ends at March 31 each year, so the annual report I am looking at is for March 31, 2022.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there is insider buying and this is always a good thing. I have not done well on this stock to June 2022. I have a negative total return of 3.74% with a capital loss of 7.97% and dividends of 4.23%. This is after holding this stock for 4 years.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, $1000.50 you would have bought 138 shares at $7.25 per share. In December 2021, after 7 years you would have received $216.66 in dividends. The stock would be worth $216.66. Your total return would have been $1097.10.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$7.25 $1,000.50 138 7 $216.66 $880.44 $1,097.10

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 4.84%. The 5 and 6 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.12% and 2.82%. The Dividend growth over the past 5 years has been moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 14% per year. The last dividend increase occurred in 2020 and it was for 7.1%. Dividends have been flat since 2020 and analysts do not expect any increases over the next 3 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 64% with 5 year coverage at 119%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 38% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 24% with 5 year coverage at 25%. The 33% with 5 year coverage at 35%.

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.65. It rises to 0.82 in 2023. This is because of a drop in the stock price. This is higher than I like to see. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 0.87. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is just 1.34. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is 1.45 and I also prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.23 and 2.23. I prefer these to be below 3.00 and below 2.00

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 7 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 14.12% -2.59% -6.04% 3.45%
2014 7 15.71% 1.42% -1.81% 3.23%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.57, 15.51 and 17.45. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.06, 24.86 and 28.45. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.06, 24.86 and 28.45. The current P/E Ratio is 9.69 based on a stock price of $6.20 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.64. The current P/E Ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.08, 9.23 and 10.70. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.30, 11.82 and 13.60. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 7.29 based on AEPS estimate for 2023 of $0.85 and a stock price of $6.20. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $7.39. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 1.78 and 2.23. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.84 based on a stock price of $6.20. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.09. The current P/B Ratio is 1.63 based on a stock price of $6.20, Book Value of $273.5M and Book Value per Share of $3.79. The current P/B Ratio is 22% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.23. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.63 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $1.34, Cash Flow of $96.6M and a stock price of $6.20. The current P/CF Ratio is 54% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.82%. The current dividend yield is 4.84% based on dividends of $0.30 and a stock price of $6.20. The current dividend yield is 72% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 6 year median dividend yield of 2.82%. The current dividend yield is 4.84% based on dividends of $0.30 and a stock price of $6.20. The current dividend yield is 72% above the 6 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.86. The current P/S Ratio is 1.37 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $326M, Revenue per Share of $4.52 and a stock price of $6.20. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The dividend yield test shows this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the other tests are pointing to the stock price as being relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (3). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $8.00. This implies a Total Return of 33.87% with 29.03% from capital gains and 4.84% from dividends based on a stock price of $6.20.

Few analysts cover this stock on Stock Chase. Stock Chase gives it 1 star out of 5 stars. It is not on the Money Sense list. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool recently looked at this stock. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool talks about this company teaming up with Dollarama. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance reviews this company. Simply Wall Street lists 3 risks with this company of has a high level of debt; unstable dividend track record and profit margins (11.8%) are lower than last year (18.2%).

Stingray Group Inc is a music, media, and technology company. The company generates maximum revenue from the Broadcasting and commercial music segment. Its web site is here Stingray Digital Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB) ... learn more on Friday, August 5, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy August 2022.... learn more on Thursday, August 4, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, August 1, 2022

Loblaw Companies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The current stock price seems on the expensive side. They have been doing better lately. This is especially true of EPS and Stock Price. There is nothing remarkable about Dividend Payout Ratios or Debt Ratios. See my spreadsheet on Loblaw Companies Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Stock price seems expensive. This stock has been preforming better lately. I do wonder if they have really fixed their supply system. When shelves are empty of an item, it can be a week before the item is back. I notice with Metro that items seem to be restocked the next day. However, I do like shopping at Loblaws better than Metro, even though I own Metro stock.

I do not own this stock of Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF). I have followed this stock for some time. I got the stock from Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth companies. I owned it from 1996 to 2007. It was originally a great stock. I sold it in 2007 because it was having problems with its tech upgrade to its supply system and it did not seem that it would be fixed anytime soon.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company is providing Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. However, this data has been inconsistent over the years. Sometimes they provided Diluted AEPS (recent) and sometimes Basic AEPS and sometimes neither.

If you look at my spreadsheet, I can see that from around 2016, the EPS started to rise for this company. Over the past 5 years, EPS is up by just over 18%. The Revenue per Share is not up so strong at just 6.6% per year over the past 5 years. It is interesting that the Adjusted Earnings per Share (AESP) is up by only 6.7% per year over the past 5 years.

This stock has done well lately. If you compared the chart of total return of the end of 2020 to the one below to 2021, you can see that the Total Return for years 5 and 10 are much better. Below the total return for the last 5 and 10 years are 1.01% and 6.61%. For chart ending in 2021, the total return for last 5 and 10 years is 9.39% and 12.55%.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2015 5 5.17% 1.01% -0.79% 1.79%
2010 10 4.30% 6.61% 4.52% 2.09%
2005 15 2.85% 3.45% 0.72% 2.72%
2000 20 5.99% 2.83% 1.27% 1.56%
1995 25 10.31% 10.22% 7.50% 2.72%
1990 30 10.17% 10.62% 8.07% 2.55%
1988 32 9.67% 13.57% 10.20% 3.37%

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1000.48 you would have bought 26 shares at $38.48 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $284.31 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,694.64. Your total return would have been $2,978.95.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$38.48 $1,000.48 26 10 $284.31 $2,694.64 $2,978.95

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.39%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 6.33% per year. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.82%, 1.84% and 1.39%. Dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 6% per year over the past 5 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 36%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 25% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for CFPS is 8% with 5 year coverage at 9%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is 16% with 5 year coverage at 18%. (However, site have very different values for FCF.)

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.30 and is good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.37, but if you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is 1.85. (I like this one to be at 1.50 or higher). The Debt Ratio is a bit low at 1.47 as I prefer this also to be at 1.50 or higher.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div. check
2016 5 6.33% 9.39% 7.91% 1.48% 9.39%
2011 10 5.24% 12.25% 10.42% 1.83% 12.25%
2006 15 3.46% 6.59% 5.15% 1.44% 6.59%
2001 20 6.46% 5.14% 3.84% 1.31% 5.14%
1996 25 10.33% 10.27% 8.26% 2.01% 10.27%
1991 30 10.01% 12.44% 10.12% 2.33% 12.44%
1988 33 9.66% 14.38% 11.55% 2.83% 14.38%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.43, 22.04 and 24.65. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 20.18, 22.78 and 25.39. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.05, 19.42 and 21.60. The current ratio is 21.31 based on a stock price of $116.57 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $5.47. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share AEPS) data. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/AEPS Ratios are 14.23, 16.07 and 18.05. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.48, 16.22 and 18.36. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 18.21 based on AEPS estimate for 2022 of $6.40 and a stock price of $116.57. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $64.88. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.48 and 1.64. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.80 based on a stock price of $116.57. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.11. The current P/B Ratio is 3.41 based on a Book Value of $11,407M, Book Value per Share of $34.20 and a stock price of $116.57. The current ratio is 32% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.47. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.93 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $14.70, Cash Flow of $4,903M and a stock price of $116.57. The current ratio is 6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.49%. The current dividend yield is 1.39% based on a stock price of $116.57 and Dividends of $1.62. The current ratio is 7% at the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.84%. The current dividend yield is 1.39% based on a stock price of $116.57 and Dividends of $1.62. The current ratio is 25% below the 10 median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.51. The current P/S Ratio is 0.71 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $54,919M, Revenue per Share of $164.66 and a stock price of $116.57. The current ratio is 39% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. Both the 10 year median dividend yield test and the P/S Ratio test show this result. Lots of people think that the 10 year test for dividend yield is much better than the historical one. Not all the tests show an expensive result. For example, the P/E Ratio test says the price is reasonable. This is not a bad tests as P/E Ratios are uniform over a long period. The P/CF Ratio test also says the stock price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong buy (4), Buy (3), Hold (3) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $125.55. This implies a total return of 9.09% with 7.70% from capital gains and 1.39% from dividends.

Some analysts on Stock Chase think that the stock is too expensive. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is interesting the Loblaw got a C rating from Money Sense until 2021 and then is not on their list of 100 best Canadian Dividend stocks in 2022. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks this is a dependable dividend stock for RRSP Accounts. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool likes this stock as a defensive stock. The company reported on a Press Release their fourth quarterly results. The company reported on a Press Release their first quarter 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street has a report on Yahoo Finance. This report reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street has two warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.9% per year for the next 3 years; and the company has a high level of debt.

Loblaw is one of Canada's largest grocery, pharmacy, and general merchandise retailers, operating the most expansive store footprint in Ontario and maintaining sizable presences in provinces like Quebec and British Columbia. The firm's controlling shareholder is George Weston Limited, which owns 52.6% of the equity. Its web site is here Loblaw Companies Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP0 ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 3, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks August 2022 .... learn more on Tuesday, August 2, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, July 29, 2022

Ballard Power Systems Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Sector Stock. Stock price could be expensive. Ballard basically gets it money from issuing new shares. They have revenue, but no earnings and no cash flow to speak of. They have good debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Ballard Power Systems Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price would seem to be currently expensive. Because the stock price is expected to fall, it would seem that analysts think it is currently too high also. The company has no earnings and cash flow, but does have revenue.

I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP). Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and never recovered.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that last year, analysts expected Revenue at 119M and it came in at 104M. For 2021, they expected Revenue at $154M and it came in at $105M. For a while there in late 2020 and early 2021, this stock was above the $17.35 I paid for this stock in 1997. I sold at a loss in 2006 because I felt it was never going anywhere anytime soon.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1001.00 you would have bought 910 shares at $1.10 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $0 in dividends. The stock would be worth $14,459.90. Your total return would have been $14,459.90. However, the stock has fallen this year and at present, these shares would be worth $8,226.40.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$1.10 $1,001.00 910 10 $0.00 $14,459.90 $14,459.90

There are no dividends on this stock. The stock never paid dividends.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Ratio is 0.00. There is not much of any long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is 14.78. The Debt Ratio is 12.78. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are 1.08 and 0.08.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 0.00% 48.24% 48.24% 0.00%
2011 10 0.00% 30.61% 30.61% 0.00%
2006 15 0.00% 5.97% 5.97% 0.00%
2001 20 0.00% -5.34% -5.34% 0.00%
1996 25 0.00% 2.78% 2.78% 0.00%
1995 26 0.00% 4.55% 4.55% 0.00%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2021 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 0.00% 50.07% 50.07% 0.00%
2011 10 0.00% 27.81% 27.81% 0.00%
2006 15 0.00% 5.42% 5.42% 0.00%
2001 20 0.00% -4.16% -4.16% 0.00%
1996 25 0.00% 3.09% 3.09% 0.00%
1995 26 0.00% 4.87% 4.87% 0.00%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are all negative and therefore useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are also negative and useless. The company does not have any earnings and is not likely to have any earnings anytime soon. This is not a viable test.

Without any earnings, a Graham Price test is also not a viable test.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.71. The current P/B Ratio is 1.84 based on a stock price of $7.97, Book Value of $1,286M and Book Value per Share of $4.32. The current ratio is 50% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get similar results in CDN$.

Cash Flow is negative, so I can do not viable test here. There are no dividends, so no dividend tests can be done.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.04. The current P/S Ratio is 21.36 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $111M, Revenue per Share of $0.37 and a stock price of $7.97. The current ratio is 324% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get similar results in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably currently expensive. I base this on the P/S Ratio test. I note that the P/B Ratio tests says that the stock is cheap. However, this company has no earnings and no earnings in the foreseeable future.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (5), Hold (13), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $9.59 ($7.47 US$). This implies a capital loss of 6.19% based on a current stock price of $10.22.

There are analysts’ comments on Stock Chase but not much in recommendations to buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this might be a good alternative energy option. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool thinks this stock could outperform the TSX in the long term. The company in a Press Release talks about their fourth quarter result. The company in a Press Release talks about their first quarter of 2022 result.

Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talks about this company cash burn. Simply Wall Street has one warning for this company of currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Ballard is a world leader in proton exchange membrane fuel cell, power system development, and commercialization. The company's principal business is the design, development, manufacture, sale and service of PEM fuel cell products for a variety of applications, focusing on power product markets of heavy-duty motive (consisting of bus, truck, rail, and marine applications), material handling, and stationary power generation. Sales are concentrated in the U.S., Europe, and China. Its web site is here Ballard Power Systems Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) ... learn more on Tuesday, August 2, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, July 27, 2022

Savaria Corporation

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is reasonable and it may be cheap. Debt, Intangibles and Goodwell have increased a lot lately. Dividend growth is down. Analysts still believe this stock will do well this year in its stock price. See my spreadsheet on Savaria Corporation.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable. Shareholders have done quite well with this dividend growth stock. However, the recent Simply Wall Street report does make some good points of declining ROE and Profit Margins. So, this probably makes this stock riskier. Certainly, I think the company realizes that dividends are too high and the last two increases have been around 4%.

I do not own this stock of Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF). I got this stock off the Dividend Blogger site that no longer exists. I am always interested in dividend growth small cap stock. The first few years of accounting were rather confusing, but I think I figured them out in the end.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed is that Long Term Debt has increased over the past year by 661%. Long Term Debt/Market Cap is fine at 0.31. They made some Business Acquisitions. Also, Intangibles and Goodwill has increased by 250% over the past year. The Intangible Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is ok at 0.54. The reason that Earnings went down even though Revenue was up was because of Financing Costs.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1001.10 you would have bought 705 shares at $1.42 per share. In December 2021, after 20 years you would have received $2,043.58 in dividends. The stock would be worth $13,507.80. Your total return would have been $15,551.38.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$1.42 $1,001.10 705 10 $2,043.58 $13,507.80 $15,551.38

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth good. The current dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.79%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 2.62%, 3.31% and 3.54%. The dividend growth is good (15% and above) at 17.7% per year over the past 5 years. For this stock, the dividend growth has been good for the past 16 years. See chart below. However, the last two dividend increases have been low at around 4%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine or going to be fine. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 255% and with 5 year coverage at 97%. This is the highest these numbers have been. Analysts expect these numbers to moderate this year, with DPR for EPS to be around 77% in 2022 and 59% in 2023. There is Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The DPR for AEPS for 2021 is 131% with 5 year coverage at 88%. These are also expected to moderate this year to 70% and moderate to 56% in 2023. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2021 is 36% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) 71% with 5 year coverage at 77%. (However, this is quite a bit of disagreement on what the FCF is.)

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is low and good at 0.31. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 1.93. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.65. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.55 and 1.55.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 17.67% 14.95% 12.00% 2.94%
2011 10 14.99% 35.74% 29.72% 6.02%
2006 15 22.90% 19.23% 16.26% 2.97%
2001 20 20.36% 18.85% 16.52% 2.33%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.85, 30.31 and 38.77. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.96, 23.56 and 29.88. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.31, 18.41 and 22.18. The current P/E Ratio is 20.29 based on a stock price of $13.19 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $0.65. This ratio is between the 10 year low and median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $9.80. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.26, 1.65 and 2.01. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.35 based on a stock price of $13.19. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.86. The current P/B Ratio is 2.01 based on a stock price of $13.19, Book Value of $421.8M and Book Value per Share of $5.67. The current P/B Ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.36. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.07 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $1.31, Cash Flow of $84M and a stock price of $13.19. The current ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.54%. The current dividend yield is $3.79% based on dividends of $0.5004 and a stock price of $13.19. The current dividend yield is 7% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.31%. The current dividend yield is $3.79% based on dividends of $0.5004 and a stock price of $13.19. The current dividend yield is 14.7% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.76. The current P/S Ratio is 1.09 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $779M, Revenue per Share of $12.13 and a stock price of $13.19. The current ratio is 38% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap. The Dividend yield tests are saying that the stock price is reasonable, but the P/S Ratio test is saying the stock price is cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Buy (7). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $22.31. This implies a total return of 72.94% with 69.14% from capital gains and 3.79% from dividends based on a stock price of $13.19.

Analysts on Stock Chase have various views on the company, but mostly like it. Stock Chase gives this company 4 stars out of 5. It is not on Money Sense’s list. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool thinks this is a good stock for passive income. Motley Fool believes this stock will return solid returns over the long term. He says it is selling 40% below its 52 weeks high. The company has a Press Release on its fourth quarter 2021 results. The has put out a Press Release on First Quarter of 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talks about the company’s week ROE. Simply Wall Street gives four warnings on this company of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; dividend of 3.83% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years; large one-off items impacting financial results and profit margins (1.8%) are lower than last year (6.5%).

Savaria Corp designs, engineers, and manufactures products for personal mobility. Its products include home elevators, wheelchair lifts, commercial elevators, ceiling lifts, stairlifts, and van conversions. Its web site is here Savaria Corporation.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TECSYS Inc (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP0 ... learn more on Friday, July 29, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Building Your Pension Plan.... learn more on Tuesday, July 28, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, July 25, 2022

TECSYS Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech. The stock price is expensive. Dividend yield is very low, but people are not going to buy this company for the dividend. Debt Ratios are good. Ratios are high, but this is a Tech company. See my spreadsheet on TECSYS Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this company. I do not sell stock just because they are expensive. However, I will not buy any more of the shares of this company at this time. It is a small cap and therefore risky. It is a Tech company and it is probably going to always be expensive to buy.

I own this stock of TECSYS Inc (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF). I came across this stock when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock as a filler stock. This is a small cap dividend paying stock that I like. You never know how small caps will turn out. I took a chance on another small cap in 2000 and ended up owning some 6 shares in an African copper main worth just over $1.00. However, on this stock I have done well earning 30% per year over the past 11 years.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed earnings were expected to go down 8% to $0.45, but they went down 38% to $.30. Revenue went down because the ratio of the Cost of Revenue to Revenue went up. Note that this company has an April 30 ending for the financial year. So, I am looking at financials ending April 30, 2022.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1001.27 you would have bought 449 shares at $2.23 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $718.40 in dividends. The stock would be worth $23,621.89. Your total return would have been $24,340.29. Unfortunately, the stock price has decline and recently, this stock would be worth only $13,829.20. But that is still a good increase and we are probably in a bear market.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$2.23 $1,001.27 449 10 $718.40 $23,621.89 $24,340.29

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is quite low (below 2%) at 0.91%. The 5, 10 and Historical median dividend yields are also low at 1.24%, 1.26% and 1.42%. The dividends have increased at a good rate (15% or higher) at 15.7% per year over the past 5 years. However, the last dividend increase, which was in 2022 was lower at 7.7%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are high, but are expected to improve. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 90% with 5 year coverage at 79%. The DPR for EPS is expected to raise over 100% in 2023 before fall to around 50% in 2024. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2022 is 17% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 104% with 5 year coverage at 44%. The DPR for FCF is expected to fall to 46% in 2023.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is low and good at just 0.02. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is good at 1.71. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 2.20. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.83 and 0.83.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2016 5 15.74% 42.22% 40.94% 1.45%
2011 10 16.23% 38.89% 37.18% 2.08%
2006 15 14.61% 29.51% 27.98% 1.77%
2001 20 17.96% 17.45% 0.90%
1998 23 13.27% 12.94% 0.46%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 45.94, 80.45 and 85.87. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 32.25, 42.86 and 53.46. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.17, 16.41 and 19.65. You can see from this that the stock prices have move higher a lot quicker than EPS. The current P/E Ratio is 147.75 based on a stock price of $34.46 and EPS for 2023 of $0.24. The current P/E Ratio is very high and higher than the high ratio of 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The P/E Ratio is dropping to 64.47 next year based on a stock price of $35.46 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $0.55. This is still a high ratio, but not uncommon for Tech stocks. Although you must be careful buying stock at this high a ratio. It should not be a long term buy.

I get a Graham Price of $5.05. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.48, 3.30 and 4.12. These are also very high ratios. The current P/GP Ratio is 7.03 based on a stock price of $34.56. The current P/GP Ratio is higher than the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.25. The current P/B Ratio is 7.52 based on a Book Value of $68.68M, Book Value per Share of $4.72 and a stock price of $34.56. The current ratio is above the 10 year median ratio by 77%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 26.63. The current P/CF Ratio is 27.02 based on Cash Flow for last 12 months of $19M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.31 and a stock price of $34.56. The current P/CF Ratio is 1.5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. However, these ratios are rather high ones.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.42%. The current dividend yield is 0.79% based on dividends of $2.80 and a stock price of $34.56. The current dividend yield is 44% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.26%. The current dividend yield is 0.79% based on dividends of $2.80 and a stock price of $34.56. The current dividend yield is 37% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.07. The current P/S Ratio is 3.49 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $148M, Revenue per Share of $10.16 and a stock price of $34.56. The current P/S Ratio is 68% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield tests show this and this is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the tests, except for the P/CF Ratio test, shows the stock price as expensive. This is interesting.

Last year I said that the results of stock price testing were that the stock price was probably expensive. The dividend yield tests show this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. However, all the testing points to that fact that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Last year’s answer was that I still like this company and would not sell just because it is expensive. I also do not think now is the time to start to lock in my profit on this stock. However, now is probably not the time to buy this company. Also, I generally do not buy dividend stock when the yield is below 1%. (I have not changed my mind on this.)

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Buy (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $47.50. This implies a total return of $34.74% with 33.95% from capital gains and 0.79% from dividends based on a stock price of $34.56.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $61.00. This implies a total return of $24.69% with 0.53% from dividends and 24.16% from capital gains based on a stock price of $49.13. What happened was a stock price decline to $34.46 and a Total Loss of $27.29% with a capital loss of 27.82 and dividends of $0.53%. However, the stock did reach a high of $63.21 in February 2021. It has a YTD decline of 33%. It is a Tech stock and lots of Tech stocks are down this year.

An entry for March 2022 on Stock Chase says it is cheap. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is not on Money Sense’s list because it is a small cap. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says it is a quality stock with pricing powers. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says if this tech company can continue its growth, it will turn $1,000 into $10,000 in 10 years’ time. The company put out a Press Release on their fourth quarter results for April 2022. Simply Wall Street reporting via Yahoo Finance says they like the way this company handles debt. They show one risk of profit margins (3.3%) are lower than last year (5.8%).

TECSYS Inc is engaged in the development and sale of enterprise supply chain management software for distribution, warehousing, transportation logistics, point-of-use, and order management. It also provides related consulting, education, and support services. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States and also has a presence in Canada and Other Countries. Its web site is here TECSYS Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pulse Seismic Inc (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 27, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Investing for the Long Term. .... learn more on Tuesday, July 26, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.