Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that you can make money from resource stocks, but you have to be careful when you buy them as they are rather cyclical. If you look at its chart, it is just off its recent high.
I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU. PCA and SU merged in 2009. Note that this merger is more than 10 year ago and most of my results I look at are 5 and 10 years.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the CEO and CFO own no shares according to INK. Some officers do. This stock is cyclical. However, they have had good growth over the past 5 and 10 years and analysts think this will continue. In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. In column 5, I am showing what growth has been over the past 12 months to March 31, 2026 and what is expected to the end of this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Gwth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Revenue Growth | 71.83% | 11.43% | 4.94% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | AEPS Growth | 413.61% | 38.72% | 18.00% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Net Income Growth | 237.02% | 27.51% | 6.94% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Cash Flow Growth | 377.79% | 36.73% | 2.18% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Dividend Growth | 110.96% | 16.10% | 3.90% | <-12 mths |
| 5 | Stock Price Growth | 185.34% | 23.33% | 28.07% | <-12 mths |
| 10 | Revenue Growth | 42.78% | 3.63% | 44.08% | <-this year |
| 10 | AEPS Growth | 356.44% | 16.40% | 108.46% | <-this year |
| 10 | Net Income Growth | 396.64% | 17.38% | 80.13% | <-this year |
| 10 | Cash Flow Growth | 85.66% | 6.38% | 39.53% | <-this year |
| 10 | Dividend Growth | 102.63% | 7.32% | 5.06% | <-this year |
| 10 | Stock Price Growth | 70.55% | 5.48% | 65.10% | <-this year |
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,000.16 you would have bought 28 shares at $35.72 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $453.74 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,705.76. Your total return would have been $2,159.50. This would be a total return of 8.95% per year with 5.48% from capital gain and 3.47% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35.72 | $1,000.16 | 28 | 10 | $453.74 | $1,705.76 | $2,159.50 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth good. The dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.82%. The 5, 10 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate at 4.74%, 4.16% and 3.17%. The dividend growth is good (15% per year and higher) at 16.1% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 5.3%. The increase in 2025 was for 4.59. in 2021 and in 2020 the dividends were decreased by 55%. In the past 31 years, the dividends have been increased 23 times and decreased 2 times. So you should be careful about counting on the dividends.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 48% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is good at 22% with 5 year coverage at 19%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is high at 50% with 5 year coverage good at 39%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 22% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 40% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The FCF for 2025 do not vary much and they vary from $6,925 to $6,930.
| Item | Current | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 47.63% | 37.90% |
| AFFO | 22.02% | 18.52% |
| AEPS | 50.11% | 39.15% |
| CFPS | 21.57% | 18.08% |
| FCF | 40.53% | 33.62% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.12 and currently at 0.09. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is low at 1.39 and 1.42 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.38 and currently at 2.63. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.01 and 1.97 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 1.99 and 0.99 and currently fine at 2.03 and 1.03.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| Intang/GW | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Liquidity | 1.39 | 1.42 |
| Liq. + CF | 2.38 | 2.63 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.01 | 1.97 |
| Leverage | 1.99 | 2.03 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.99 | 1.03 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 5.59% | 29.09% | 23.33% | 5.76% |
| 2015 | 10 | 8.01% | 8.95% | 5.48% | 3.47% |
| 2010 | 15 | 14.22% | 5.75% | 3.15% | 2.61% |
| 2005 | 20 | 15.91% | 4.55% | 2.57% | 1.98% |
| 2000 | 25 | 13.91% | 10.16% | 7.68% | 2.47% |
| 1995 | 30 | 12.57% | 14.22% | 10.99% | 3.23% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.34, 7.99 and 9.65. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.11, 10.89 and 12.67. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.96, 11.15 and 13.73. The current ratio of 9.21 based on a stock price of $85.22 and EPS estimate for 2026 of $9.26. The current ratio is between low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.35, 8.65 and 10.44. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.59, 8.97 and 10.60. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.85, 12.06 and 14.28. The current ratio of 8.87 based on a stock price of $85.22 and AEPS estimate for 2026 of $8.61. The current ratio is between low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $91.42. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 0.84 and 1.06. The current ratio is 0.93 based on a stock price of $85.22. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.38. The current ratio is 2.20 based on a Book Value of $45,776M, Book Value per Share of $38.66 and a stock price of $85.22. The current ratio is 59% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2026 of $41.35. This produces a ratio of 2.06 with a Book Value of $48,966M and a stock price of $85.22. This ratio is 49% above the 10 year median ratio of 1.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.57. The current ratio is 5.66 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of $15.06, Cash Flow of $17,834M and a stock price of $85.22. The current ratio is 2% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.17%. The current dividend yield is 2.82% based on a Dividend of $2.40 and a stock price of $85.22. The current dividend yield is 11% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.16%. The current dividend yield is 2.82% based on a Dividend of $2.40 and a stock price of $85.22. The current dividend yield is 32% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.58. The current ratio is 1.65 based on Revenue estimate for 2026 of $61,056M, Revenue per Share of $51.56 and a stock price of $85.22. The current ratio is 5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. The 10 year dividend yield test says that the stock price is relatively expensive. The P/S Ratio test says that it is relatively reasonable but above the median. The rest of the testing goes from relatively reasonable and below the median to expensive, but most showing a relatively reasonable stock price.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7), Buy (5), Hold (7), Underperform (1). The consensus is a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $100.58 with a high of $118.00 and low of $72.00. The 12 month stock price consensus of $100.58 implies a total return of 20.84% with 18.02% from capital gains and 2.82% from dividends based on a current stock price of $85.22.
Analysts on Stock Chase seem to like this company. Some think it is a buy and others a Hold and one a Sell. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool looks at Enbridge and Suncor and feels that Enbridge is the better current buy for July 2026. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks that the recent pull back in price gives you a better buying price for a cash-generating energy heavyweight. The company put out a press release via Energy Now about their fourth quarter results for 2025. The company put out a press release via Energy Now about their first quarter of 2026 results.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and asks if it is under or over-valued. Simply Wall Street has one warning of Unstable dividend track record and that is correct.
Suncor Energy Inc is an integrated energy company. The company's operations span the full energy value chain, including oil sands mining and in situ operations, upgrading, offshore production, petroleum refining in Canada and the U.S., marketing, and trading, and nationwide PetroCanada retail and wholesale networks delivering reliable energy that fuels economic growth and meets the needs of customers across Canada and globally. Geographically, the company generates a majority of its revenue from Canada. Its web site is here Suncor Energy Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Jamieson Wellness Inc (TSX-JWEL, OTC-JWLLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF) ... learn more on Friday, July 17, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian American Relationship.... learn more on Thursday, July 16, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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