Monday, April 22, 2019

Barclays PLC ADR

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. You would think testing would show the stock price as cheap, but it is coming up reasonable, but below the median. There is a lot of risk to this stock at present. See my spreadsheet on Barclays PLC ADR.

I do not own this stock of Barclays PLC ADR (LSE-BARC, NYSE-BCS), but I used to. I bought this stock when Barrett took over in 2000. Barrett used to run Bank of Montreal in Canada. At that time, it was a good dividend paying stock and I thought it would give me some geographical diversifications.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that both revenue and earnings were up in 2018 and the stock price went up this year so far. They also have been increasing the dividend lately. Generally, when a company increases their dividends, especially a sizable amount, it is because the company sees good future growth.

This is a UK bank and dividends are paid and declared in British Pounds (£). This company paid two dividends a year with a larger one in the spring after the prior year results are know and one in the fall. This year, 2019, a dividend was paid in April and the next one due to be paid in September.

The April 2019 dividend is considered to the final dividend of 2018 and the September one to be an interim dividend. The Final dividend is generally greater than the interim one. For example, in 2017 the final dividend paid in April 2017 was for 2p (i.e. 2 pence) and the September 2017 interim dividend paid was for 1p. The year 2018 was untypical with a final dividend less than the interim one.

Note also that if you purchase this stock on the US market, it is purchases as an ADR (American Depositary Receipts). There is 1 ADRs for each 4 UK stock. Therefore when dividends are paid on the ADR, shareholders will get 4 times the rate. The currency exchange rate will also be taken into account.

For this bank, dividends have gone down as well as up and the dividend payment timing has changed. As you can see from the charts below dividend have been declining. The 2008 bear market and recession has been hard on banks. This bank started to rise their dividends again in 2018 and they were increased 100% in 2019 (so far). With the latest dividend increases, dividends are now back to where they were 5 years ago.

The Dividend Payout Ratios for 2018 for EPS 49% with 5 year coverage at 368% UK£. The anticipated DPR for EPS for 2019 is expected to be 30% with 5 year coverage at 85%. The DPR for 2018 for CFPS is 9% with 5 year coverage at 5%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Deposits/Assets Ratio for 2018 is 0.68. The Deposit/Total Debt Ratio for 2018 is 0.37. Both these ratios are good. The Liquidity Ratio is generally ignored for a bank. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.06 with 5 year median also at 1.06. This is a satisfactory ratio for a bank.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2018 in UK Pounds. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 -7.09% -8.81% -11.10% 2.29%
2008 10 -18.31% 3.01% -0.19% 3.20%
2003 15 -9.61% -3.63% -7.65% 4.01%
1998 20 -4.26% 2.28% -3.79% 6.07%
1993 25 0.68% 8.73% 0.10% 8.64%


The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2018 in US$. This is a UK bank and the difference between the charts would reflect the difference between the currencies involved.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 -11.79% -13.98% -16.09% 2.12%
2008 10 -19.40% 0.78% -2.59% 3.37%
2003 15 -10.88% -5.86% -9.96% 4.10%
1998 20 -5.41% 1.11% -5.32% 6.42%
1996 23 0.06% 7.62% -1.75% 9.37%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are -17.7, -20.70 and -23.69. There have been recent earning losses. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.28, 6.29 and 9.07. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.40, 10.08 and 12.11. The current P/E Ratio is 7.92 based on a stock price of 169.4p (UK£1.694) and 2019 EPS estimate of 21.4p (UK£0.214). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of UK£3.86. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.54, 0.68 and 0.84. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.44 based on a stock price of £1.694. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.62. The current P/B Ratio is 0.55 based on Book Value of £52.924, Book Value per Share of £3.09 and a stock price of £1.694. The current P/B Ratio is 11% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.25%. The current dividend yield is 3.84% based on dividends of £0.065 and a stock price of £1.694. The current dividend yield is 18% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.45. The P/S Ratio is 1.34 based on 2019 Revenue estimate for 2019 of £21,722M, Revenue per Share of £1.27 and a stock price of £1.694. The current P/S Ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is the stock price is reasonable and below the median. You would think that the stock price would be coming up cheap on testing. Note that for P/E Ratio testing, the ratios are very low especially for 5 and 10 year periods because of earning losses and therefore negative ratios. A P/E Ratio of 7.92 is a very low ratio. It is low compared to the historical ratios.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (8), Buy (4), Hold (5), Underperform (1) and Sell (2). The recommendations are all over the place. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is £2.1322. This implies a total return of 29.70% with 25.87% from capital gains and 3.84% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. One analyst says buy and another one says don’t buy. Interesting. Harvey Jones on Motley Fool likes the dividend yield and the fact that it will increase. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes this bank’s level of leverage and liquidity. There is a Porter Five Forces analysis at Fern Fort University. There is another analysis of this stock at Swot and Pestle.

Barclays PLC operates in commercial and investment banking, insurance, financial and other related services. Barclays subsidiary, Barclays Bank PLC maintains 2500 branches in the United Kingdom and 1000 branches in over 75 other countries. Its web site is here Barclays PLC ADR.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be SNC-Lavalin Group Inc (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) ... learn more on Wednesday April 24, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about My Politics.... learn more on Tuesday, April 23, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, April 19, 2019

Canadian Natural Resources

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Resource. The stock price is probably reasonable. It looks like there is lots of insider selling, but it is what is happening is that they are not taking up their options in stocks. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Natural Resources .

I own this stock of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I first bought CNQ in September 2012 because the dividend yield was relatively high. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields were 0.73% and 0.75%. The current one was at 1.31% and I got it with a yield of 1.32%. In April 2013 I bought more shares of this stock because the yield is now at 1.54%.

The yield is now higher than when I bought this stock, but so is the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS. When I bought at 1.54%, the DPR for EPS was 23%. The yield is now for 2019 will be 3.48% and DPR for EPS is expected to be 67%. The 2019 yield is 3.48% because for 2019 the first dividend is $0.335 with three payments of $0.375 or $1.46. The current yield is 3.58% because the current dividend is $0.375 quarterly or $1.50.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock has not been doing well lately. The stock price over the past 5 years is down by 1.73% per year. The total return is 1.23% per year over the last 5 year period.

Current dividend yield is relatively high for this stock at a moderate 3.58%. The yield has been low (under 2%) most of the time in the past. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 2.68%, 1.82% and 0.93%. The dividend growth is good with growth per year north of 20% per year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. They are a lot higher than in the past. The 2018 DPR for EPS is 63% with 5 year coverage at 74%. The 2018 DPR for CFPS is good at 18% with 5 year coverage at 16%.

Debt Ratios are fine but there is a vulnerability in a low Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.49. The Liquidity Ratio is very low at 0.63. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. However, if you add in cash flow after dividends it is healthy at 2.42. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.81. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are normal at 2.24 and 1.24 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 22.79% 1.23% -1.73% 2.96%
2008 10 21.41% 5.35% 3.06% 2.29%
2003 15 21.54% 12.17% 9.74% 2.44%
1998 20 23.41% 15.30% 12.97% 2.34%
1993 25 12.97% 11.33% 1.64%
1990 28 22.09% 19.59% 2.50%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.90, 11.32 and 13.74. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.17, 17.53 and 21.87. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.04, 16.56 and 20.00. The current P/E Ratio is 19.24 based on a current stock price of $41.94 and 2019 EPS estimate of $2.18. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $36.12. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.85, 1.12 and 1.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.16 based on a stock price of $41.94. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.51. The current P/B Ratio is 1.58 based on Book Value of $31,974, Book Value per Share of $26.60 and a stock price of $41.94. The current ratio is 4.3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.93%. The current dividend yield is 3.58% based on dividends of $1.50 and a stock price of $41.94. The current dividend is some 285% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.80. The current P/S Ratio is 2.30 based on a stock price of $41.94 and 2019 Revenue estimate of 20,707M, Revenue per Share of $18.26 and a stock price of $41.94. The current P/S Ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Most of the testing is showing the stock price reasonable, but above the median with the exception of the P/S Ratio test and the dividend yield test. The problem with the dividend yield test is the growth in DPR for EPS. There is no problem with the P/S Ratio test and this is a good one. The P/B ratio test is also a good one and it show the stock price a bit above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (19) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $47.40. This implies a total return of 16.60% with 13.02% from capital gains and 3.58% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They generally like this company. Ryan Vanzo of Motley Fool does like this stock. A write on Simply Wall Street says insider have recently sold but a prices much higher than current price. Steve Brodrick on Seeking Alpha has an interesting summary of this report. R.P. Stastny on Trusted Energy Intelligence says the company is recognized in the Energy Excellence Oil and Gas Operational category of the Methane emissions reduction program.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd is one of the largest oil and natural gas producers in western Canada, supplemented by operations in the North Sea and Offshore Africa. The company's portfolio includes light and medium oil, heavy oil, bitumen, synthetic oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its web site is here Canadian Natural Resources .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pembina Pipelines Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Barclays PLC ADR (LSE-BARC, NYSE-BCS) ... learn more on Monday, April 22, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Pembina Pipelines Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price seems high, but not unreasonable. See my spreadsheet on Pembina Pipelines Corp.

I own this stock of Pembina Pipelines Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA). In December 2001 I thought it would be a good time to purchase this stock as the market was relatively low. Pipeline stocks are conservative and the return on this one was good at 9.7%. When I purchased this stock, it was an Income Trust company.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they have been raising money recently for capital expenditures. Also, the outstanding shares have increased by 10% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This means that real growth would show in the per share values.

The dividend yield is current moderate, but was good (5% or over) in the past. This company used to be an income trust and income trusts have higher yields than corporations. Yields have gone from good to moderate. The current yield is 4.56% with 5, 10 and historical median yields at 5.00%, 5.30% and 7.66%. The median yield since switching to a corporation is 5.19%.

When they switched to a corporation in 2010, they kept the dividends flat for a time, but then have gradually increase their dividends. The dividend growth is low (under8% per year). See chart below for the dividend increases over the past 5 to 21 years. The most increase was in 2018 and it was for 5.6%. However, the dividends paid in 2018 was 10.4% higher than those paid in 2017. This is because there was a dividend increase late in 2017 and another one in 2018.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are getting better. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 98% with 5 year coverage at 133%. The DPR for EPS has been declining. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 43% with 5 year coverage at 56%. Both these DPRs must still decline.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.34. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 0.68. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.43 and if you add back in the current portion of the long term debt it is 2.12. This is a vulnerability as the company depends on cash flow to cover current liabilities.

The Debt Ratio is very good at 2.17 with 5 year median of 2.23. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.85 and 0.85 respectively. The 5 year medians are also 1.85 and 0.85, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

I have had this stock for 17 years and I have made a total return of 17.34% per year with 9.96% from capital gains and 7.38% from dividends. The dividend portion of the total return will decrease along with the dividend yield since they have switched from an income trust to a corporation.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 6.34% 6.56% 1.60% 4.96%
2008 10 4.06% 18.10% 10.27% 7.83%
2003 15 5.03% 15.09% 7.82% 7.27%
1998 20 4.36% 17.12% 8.28% 8.84%
1997 21 6.80% 20.83% 9.56% 11.27%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.93, 34.56 and 42.20. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 23.47, 27.90 and 32.33. The corresponding historical ratios are 19.92, 22.91 and 25.36. The current P/E Ratio is 21.20 based on a stock price of $50.04 and 2019 EPS estimate of $2.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $55.20. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.29, 1.61 and 1.83. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.29 based on a stock price of $50.04. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is close to cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current P/B Ratio is 1.76 based on Book Value of $11,920, Book Value per Share of $28.35 and a stock price of $50.04. The current P/B Ratio is some 3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.66%. However, since this used to be an income trust company and s not a corporation, we should probably use the yield since the change to a corporation. That yield is 5.19%. The current dividend yield is 4.56% based on a stock price of $50.04 and dividends of $2.28. The current yield is 12% lower than the one since becoming a corporation. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.74. The current P/S Ratio is 3.10 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $8,211M, Revenue per Share of $16.16 and a stock price of $50.04. The current ratio is 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the price is above the median. The good tests for this stock are the P/B Ratio and P/S Ratio tests and it would seem from these tests that the stock price is above the median. The P/E Ratios are really high for a utility stock. The P/GP Ratios are also high for a utility stock. The problem with the dividend yield is that the stock used to be an income trust and these stocks had much higher dividend yields than corporations.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (17). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $55.33. This implies a total return of 15.13% with 10.57% from capital gains and 4.56% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They like the company but a couple says it is overvalued. Matt Smith on Motley Fool thinks this is a good defensive stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about total shareholder return for this stock. Michael Lumsden at My Grand Prairie Now talks about a pipelined approved to be built under the Smoky River. Mike Billings on Hawthorn Caller gives some statistics on this stock.

Pembina Pipeline is an integrated midstream energy infrastructure company in western Canada and North Dakota, highlighted by its regional pipeline network. The company operates over 9,000 kilometers of conventional hydrocarbon pipelines, coupled with 1,650 kilometers of heavy oil and oil sands pipelines. Gas processing facilities, natural gas liquids infrastructure, and a marketing business round out the integrated value chain. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ) ... learn more on Friday, April 19, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Metro and Jean Coutu.... learn more on Thursday, April 18, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, April 15, 2019

Barrick Gold Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Materials stock. The current stock price seems reasonable. Problem with low current long term returns is that the company hit a peak in 2010 and has yet to recover. It also hit a peak in 1996 in the past and it was not until 2008 that it was back to that peak. See my spreadsheet on Barrick Gold Corp.

I own this stock of Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX). This is a big gold mining company that I have followed for years. It was on some dividend growth lists at different times and covered by the Investment Reporter. I bought some of this stock in April 2013 because its stock price had fallen hard. I believed the market over reacted. I just bought 100 shares as I am living off my portfolio and do not have much to invest.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they have again changed members in both the Board and Management. Colors are going the opposite way you might want as they are going from Green and Blue to Blue and Red.

The dividend yield is low and has mostly always been low. The current yield is 1.19% with 5, 10 and historical yields at 1.04%, 1.06% and 0.98%. Dividends have increased as well as decreased over time. Over the past 5 years, dividends are now by 21% per year. However, the last increase was for 33%. They gave out a special higher dividend in early this year, but the normal dividend going forward will be $0.04 which is an increase of 33%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios cannot be determined when there are earning losses. The DPR for EPS for 2017 was 10% and the DPR for EPS for 2019 is expected to be 22%. I cannot calculate the DPR 5 year coverage for EPS because of EPS losses. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is low at 8% with 5 year coverage at 7%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is fine at 0.36. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is good 2.38 with a 5 year median at 2.68. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is fine at 1.71 with 5 year median at 1.69. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.98 and 1.74 for 2018 with 5 year medians at 2.75 and 1.56.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2018 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Of course, it does not matter much which currency you use, long term shareholders have not done very well in this stock for lately. The stock is some 67% off the peak of 2010.

>
From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 -20.99% 0.61% -0.30% 0.91%
2008 10 -10.38% -7.40% -8.48% 1.09%
2003 15 -3.61% -1.73% -3.14% 1.41%
1998 20 -2.59% -0.97% -2.37% 1.40%
1993 25 1.75% -1.65% -2.81% 1.16%
1988 30 6.63% 7.23% 4.51% 2.72%
1987 31 8.51% 5.50% 3.29% 2.20%


The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2018 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 -24.83% -9.05% -9.75% 0.71%
2008 10 -11.34% -8.25% -9.51% 1.26%
2003 15 -3.96% -1.68% -3.39% 1.71%
1998 20 -2.01% 0.19% -1.58% 1.77%
1993 25 1.64% -1.60% -2.92% 1.31%
1988 30 6.15% 6.75% 4.07% 2.68%
1986 32 8.35% 9.83% 6.35% 3.48%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are -2.34, -3.58 and -4.81. The 10 year corresponding ratios are -1.84, -2.95 and -4.05. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.38, 16.63 and 18.74. The current P/E Ratio is 38.34 based on a stock price of $17.91 and $0.47 EPS. This is in CDN$. Only the historical ratios make any sense. On this basis the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $9.65 CDN$. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.86, 1.12 and 1.40 CDN$. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.86 based on a stock price of $17.91 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.12 US$. The current P/B Ratio is 2.06 US$ based on Book Value of $16,358M, Book Value per Share of $8.87 and a stock price of $13.42 all in US$. The current ratio is some 3% below the 10 year median ratio. This the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but below the median. You will get a similar answer in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.04% US$. The current dividend yield is 1.19% based on a stock price of $13.42 and dividends of $0.16 all in US$. The current dividend is 15% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.34 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 1.88 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $8,315M, Revenue per Share of $7.12 and a stock price of $13.42 all in US$. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. On this basis the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. You will get a similar answer in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is showing lots of different results. However, the P/E Ratio test is suspect because of the earning losses. A problem with the dividend yield test is that dividends have been inconsistent. On the other hand, the ability to pay dividends is material, but it is hard to tell if they can afford dividends, except via the CFPS. There are no problems with the P/B Ratio or P/S Ratio tests. Both these show that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (4), Hold (14) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $15.67 US$ or $20.89 CDN$. This implies a total return of 17.81% with 16.62% from capital gains and 1.19% from dividends.

News Release from Barrick on joint venture with Newmont Forge. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Most entries are negative. Ryan Vanzo on Motley Fool likes the stock but thinks it is overvalued. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the company being financially sound. Adam Hewison on INO Com thinks this stock is going to go higher.

Based in Toronto, Barrick Gold is one of the world's largest gold producers, operating mines in North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. In 2018, the firm produced roughly 4.5 million attributable ounces of gold and more than 380 million pounds of copper. Its web site is here Barrick Gold Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Leon's Furniture Ltd (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Pembina Pipelines Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 17, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Energy and Pollution.... learn more on Tuesday, April 16, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, April 12, 2019

Leon's Furniture Ltd

Yesterday I bought another 1,000 shares of Supremex Inc. Please note that this is a high risk stock. Today I bought some 200 shares of Leon’s Furniture Ltd because it is cheap. Since I am living off my dividends, I do not have much money to spend on stocks. I also like to buy good stocks while they are cheap.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The company has not been doing well lately as far as stock price goes. It is currently cheap. There is insider buying and the last dividend increase was 16.7%. This shows that manager has a positive future view. See my spreadsheet on Leon's Furniture Ltd.

I own this stock of Leon's Furniture Ltd (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF). I had some money in 2006 and this stock has been on MPL Communication's Investor Reporter list for some time. It was also on Mike Higgs' Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought some in 2006 and then some more in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that it seemed that dividend increases were a lot lower lately, but this is because there were no increases from 2013 to 2016 inclusive. The most recent increase was late in 2018 and it was for 16.7%. Until recently, this stock has done well for shareholders. A total return of more than 8% is a good total return for a consumer stock.

The dividend yields have been moderate in the 2% to 4% ranges. The current yield is 3.81%, with 5, 10 and historical yields at 2.54%, 2.65% and 2.01% respectively. The dividend growth has been mostly moderate but there are some years of no dividend increases. The 5 and 10 year growth are low because of lack of increases from 2013 to 2016 inclusive.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 37% with 5 year coverage of 39%. Just before the stopping of dividend increases in 2012. The DPR for EPS was the highest it has ever been at 85%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 was 44% with 5 year coverage at 41%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.04 a very low value and it has been falling over the last few years, but has always been quite good. The Liquidity Ratio has varied a lot. The current ratio for 2018 is 1.09 and has a 5 year median of 1.15 and this is low. If you added in cash flow after dividends, it because for 2018, 1.32 with 5 year median of 1.34. These are also low.

The Debt Ratio has always been good and for 2018 it is 1.99 with 5 year median at 1.69. Leverage (A/BK) Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.01 and 1.01 with 5 year ratios at 2.08 and 1.08, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 4.56% 4.51% 1.39% 3.12%
2008 10 5.97% 9.31% 5.26% 4.05%
2003 15 9.68% 9.00% 5.23% 3.78%
1998 20 10.53% 10.67% 6.41% 4.26%
1993 25 10.92% 10.39% 6.57% 3.81%
1988 28 10.07% 12.08% 7.92% 4.16%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.41, 14.74 ad 16.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.43, 14.95 and 17.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.37, 14.65 and 16.76. The current ratio is 10.96 based on a stock price of $14.69 and 2019 EPS estimate of $1.34. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $18.23. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.98, 1.16 and 1.32. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.81 based on a stock price of $14.69. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.88. The current P/B Ratio is 1.35 based on Book Value of $354M, Book Value per Share of $11.02 and a stock price of $14.69. The current ratio is 29% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.01%. The current dividend yield is 3.81% based on a stock price of $14.69 and dividends of $0.56. The current yield is 90% above the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.60. The current P/S Ratio is 0.50 based on a stock price of $14.69, 2019 Revenue estimate of $2,268M and Revenue per Share of $29.27. The current ratio is 16% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is mostly cheap except for the P/S Ratio which is reasonable and below the median. This stock is selling at a relatively low price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (2) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $18.00. This implies a total return of 26.34% with 22.53% from capital gains and 3.81% from dividends based on a current stock price of $14.69.

See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. A couple talk about the amount of Real Estate they own. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool likes this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about ownership. Darrin Black on What’s on Thorold talks about a slight increase in shorted shares of this company. The company talks on Newswire Canada about teaming up with Shopify.

Leon's Furniture Ltd is one of Canada's largest retailers that sells furniture, major appliances, and home electronics. The company primarily operates across the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta. Its operations are divided between corporate and franchise stores, where the majority of revenue is derived from corporate store sales. Its web site is here Leon's Furniture Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-ABX) ... learn more on Monday, April 15, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Supremex Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Group Materials. I was looking for another stock to follow and looking for something for my TFSA. This is a risky small cap stock but with a good price. I like stocks to follow that I might consider buying and I am considering this for the TFSA. There is insider buying. I bought 1000 shares for the TFSA today. See my spreadsheet on Supremex Inc.

I do not own this stock of Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF). I read about it in Money Sense article of 15 Stocks to help investors ride market swings by Michael Pe of Mar 4, 2018. This link to the article is here. They were an envelope company, but are diversifying into packaging.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they were an income trust that changed into a corporation. The change occurred in 2010 and they decreased the dividend by almost 90%. They started to increase the dividend again in 2011. They are buying back shares, but not a lot. The buy backs are around 0.5% per year. So, there is not much difference between per share values and other value.

Dividends were very high to begin with. The top was in 2008 with a yield of 50%. The dividend yields came down with the dividend cuts, but dividends are back to being quite high. The current dividend yield is 7.98% with 5, 10 and historical yields at 5.23%, 6.46% and 7.21%. Note that income trust companies have higher yields that corporations.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. I cannot calculate a DPR for EPS for 2018 as they had an earnings loss. However, the 5 year coverage is 63%. The DPR for 2019 for EPS is expected to 50% this year. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 46% with 5 year coverage at 26%.

Debt Ratios are fine. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.78. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 2.35 with 5 year median of 2.03. These are good ratios. The Debt Ratio is 1.90 for 2018 with 5 year median of 2.38. These are fine. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 2.11 and 1.11 respectively, with 5 year ratios of 1.72 and 0.72. This Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios have varied over time for are currently rather normal.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 12 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 14.87% 13.04% 3.43% 9.61%
2008 10 -13.81% 5.51% -2.54% 8.06%
2006 12 -11.65% -2.61% -9.82% 7.21%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.83, 9.20 and 10.58. The current P/E Ratio is 6.27 based on a stock price of $3.26 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.52. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $ 5.59. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.45, 0.60 and 0.78. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.58 based on a stock price of $3.26. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.21. The current P/B Ratio is 1.22 based on Book Value of $75,661, Book Value per Share of $2.68 and a stock price of $3.26. The current P/B Ratio is 1% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.21%. The current dividend yield is 7.98% based on a stock price of $3.26 and dividends of $0.26. The current dividend is 11% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.49. The current P/S Ratio is 0.46 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $199M, Revenue per share of $7.04 and a stock price of $3.26. The current P/S Ratio is some 6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is current reasonable and probably below the median. It is only the P/E Ratio test that shows the stock as cheap and this is not be best of testing for stock price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only one analyst following this stock and giving it a recommendation of Buy. The consensus would therefore be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $4.25. This implies a total return of 38.34% with 30.37% from capital gains and 7.98% from dividends.

A few analysts follow this stock on Stock Chase. Kris Knutson on Motley Fool thinks this company is worth a look at, but it is risky. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the balance sheet is adequate and the stock has a good dividend. Alfredo Boyd on Augusta Review gives some metrics on this stock. Joe Cepeda on Z Tribune says there has been a decrease in shorted shares of this company.

Supremex Inc is engaged in manufacturer and marketer of a broad range of custom envelopes and packaging products. The company operates in one business segment that is Manufacturing and Sale of Envelopes, Packaging, and Specialty Products. Its web site is here Supremex Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Leon's Furniture Ltd (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF) ... learn more on Friday, April 11, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Investing and Stress.... learn more on Thursday, April 11, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, April 8, 2019

Russel Metals Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. The stock would seem to be relatively cheap at present. It would seem to be at a cyclical low point. It has not done well in returning value to shareholders over the past 5 years. It has good debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Russel Metals Inc.

I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time. However, I should keep a watch on this stock as it has had some troubles in the past.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it has been doing better over the last couple of years. The 2018 financial year was a robust one, but analysts all seem to expect a decline in revenue and earnings for 2019.

Dividends have gone up and down and have been suspended. They paid dividends from 1990 to 1992, then suspended them for 7 years until 1990. There have been big increases some years (118% in 2004) and big decreases in other years (44% in 2009). The dividends have been flat since 2015 and analysts do not expect any increase in dividend over the next couple of years.

The current dividend yield is good (5% or higher) and it is often good, but some years it is in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend is 6.35%. The 5, 10 and historical yields are 5.81%, 5.47% and 4.94%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently fine, but for a few years it was over 100% and the 5 year coverage is still over 100%. The current DPR for EPS for 2018 is 43% with 5 year coverage at 107%. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is expected to be around 60%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 44%.

Debt Ratios are for this company has always been fairly good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.33. The Liquidity Ratio is quite good at 2.74 with 5 year median at 2.91. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.90 with 5 year median at 1.90. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios is fine at 2.12 and 1.12 with better 5 year medians at 1.97 and 0.97.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Shareholders have done fine over the longer term.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 1.66% -1.85% -7.44% 5.59%
2008 10 -1.68% 7.72% 1.16% 6.55%
2003 15 10.95% 17.02% 6.09% 10.93%
1998 20 11.93% 19.69% 9.46% 10.23%
1993 25 11.93% 8.36% 3.87% 4.49%
1990 28 5.38% 8.82% 4.53% 4.29%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.00, 13.35 and 14.71. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.49, 14.53 and 16.16. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.22, 9.69 and 11.17. The current P/E Ratio is 9.73 based on a stock price of $24.41 and 2019 EPS estimate of $2.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $30.23. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.10 and 1.29. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.81 based on a stock price of $24.41. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.83. The current ratio is 1.51 based on Book Value of $1005M, Book Value per Share of $16.18 and a stock price of $24.41. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.94%. The current dividend yield is 6.23% based on dividends of $1.52 and a stock price of $24.41. The current yield is 26% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.54. The current P/S Ratio is 0.38 based on a stock price of $24.41, Revenue estimate for 2019 of $3,347 and Revenue per Share of $63.55. The current ratio is some 29% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is mostly that the stock price is relatively cheap. The only test that says otherwise is the P/B Ratio test. The Book Value has been falling over the past 10 years.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3) and Hold (1) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $29.88. This implies a total return of $28.64% with 22.41% from capital gains and 6.23% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They are a cyclical business that has been hurt metal tariffs. Kris Knutson on Motley Fool says it is a small, semi-speculative dividend play. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the company can easily cover their debt payments. Caroline Biscotti on Southgate Observer gives some stats on this company.

Russel Metals Inc is a Canada-based metal distribution company. The company conducts business primarily through three metals distribution segments: metals service centers; energy products; and steel distributors. Its web site is here Russel Metals Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 10, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Mutual Fund Investors.... learn more on Tuesday, April 09, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, April 5, 2019

Toromont Industries Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. This has been a great stock for me, but it would appear to be a bit expensive currently and may not be a good time to buy. See my spreadsheet on Toromont Industries Ltd.

I own this stock of Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF). This is one of the stocks I bought after selling Loblaws in 2008. This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought more in 2008 after selling Onex and AGF Management.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the colour of results changing from dark purple and blue to blue and green. I have also done well with this company which I have had since 2007 with a total return of 14.07% and 11.54% from capital gains and 2.53% from dividends.

From my earliest purchase I am making a dividend yield of 6.17% on my original purchase. This company has a low yield in the 1% range, but moderate to good increases. The value of such companies is that over the long term, you get good increases in your dividend income. This is why, I think that such stock belongs in a pension plan you are building for yourself.

Dividend yields are low and they have been low since 1993. The current dividend yield is 1.58% with 5, 10 and historical yields at 1.98%, 2.12% and 1.85. It has had a moderate level of 2% sometimes. The dividend growth has been moderate (8% to 14% ranges) except for last 25% when the it was good at 16.02% per year (over 15% range). The last dividend increase was in 2019 and it was for 17.4%. See the chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are low and this is good. The DPR for 2018 for EPS is 29% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for 2018 for CSPF is 17% with 5 year coverage at 19%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is low at 0.15. The Liquidity Ratio is moderate at 1.58, but with a good 5 year median of 2.14. The Debt Ratio is moderate at 1.70 with a good 5 year median of 2.22. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are moderate at 2.44 and 1.44.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 11.53% 17.29% 15.28% 2.01%
2008 10 9.88% 16.58% 14.44% 2.13%
2003 15 13.68% 13.72% 11.84% 1.88%
1998 20 12.76% 14.80% 12.86% 1.93%
1993 25 16.02% 18.87% 16.16% 2.72%
1990 28 14.82% 23.07% 18.93% 4.14%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.47, 18.11 and 21.84. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.21, 16.43 and 18.40. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.10, 14.86 and 18.58. The current P/E Ratio is 18.96 based on a stock price of $68.25 and 2019 EPS estimate of $3.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $36.39. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.49 and 1.70. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.88 based on a stock price of $68.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.22. The current P/B Ratio is 4.18 based on Book Value of $1,328M, Book Value per Share of $16.35 and a stock price of $68.25. The current ratio is some 30% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.85%. The current dividend yield is 1.58% based on Dividends of $1.08 and a stock price of $68.25. The current dividend yield is some 15% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.21. The current P/S Ratio is 1.47 based on a stock price of $68.25, Revenue estimate for 2019 of $3,763M and Revenue per Share of $46.33. The current P/S Ratio is some 22% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. The only one to show differently is the dividend yield test. However, there has recently been a large increase in dividends of 17.4%. This is higher than what has been normal.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (4) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $69.00. This implies a total return of 2.68% with 1.10% from capital gains and 1.58% from dividends based on a current stock price of $68.25.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. It is not well covered, but it is mostly liked. Andrew Button on Motley Fool says its growth has been frothy lately. A writer on Simply Wall Street does not like the negative growth in cash flow for 2019. A writer on Capital Cube thinks this stock is overvalued. Theresa McIntyre on Z Tribune talks about some recent analysts ratings.

Toromont Industries Ltd is a Canadian industrial company. The company operates two business segments: Equipment Group and CIMCO. The larger segment by revenue, Equipment Group includes a Caterpillar dealership and rental operation of construction equipment. CIMCO offers solutions for the design, engineering, fabrication, and installation of industrial and recreational refrigeration systems. The company operates primarily in Canada and derives a smaller portion of sales from the United States of America. Its web site is here Toromont Industries Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... learn more on April 08, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Alaris Royalty Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. This stock price is quite reasonable. There is insider buying. I was interested in this stock because it invests in companies that do not want to go public. It is an interesting story. See my spreadsheet on Alaris Royalty Corp.

I own this stock of Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF). This is a stock that Dividends in Hand Blogger has bought in July 2016. It was also recommended by Acumen Capital report in a report by Brian Pow and Oliver Shao via Investor’s Digest.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that insiders are buying. Net Insider Buying is at 0.06% which is relatively high. There is also a big increase in outstanding shares over the past 5 and 10 years with increases of 5% and 19% per year over these periods. Therefore, it is per share growth that point to what real growth has been. For example, Revenue up by 13.68% and 18.06% per year over the past 5 years and 10 years, but Revenue per Share is up by 8.34% and 2.77% over these same time periods.

The dividends yield is good with a current dividend yield at 7.83%. The 5 and 9 year median dividend yields are 6.61% and 6.79%. The dividend growth is low with 5 and 9 year growth at 3.82% and 5.64%. There was no increase in 2017 and only a 1.95% increase in 2018

The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently relatively high. The DPR for 2018 for EPS is 98.33% with 5 year coverage at 112.04%. The 5 year coverage is too high. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is high also at 74% with 5 year coverage also at 74%. I prefer this to be 40% or less. Dividend increases need better EPS and CFPS growth.

Debt Ratios are good. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is good at 0.37. The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 4.74 for 2018. The Debt Ratio is very good also at 3.49 for 2018. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also quite good at 1.40 and 0.40 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 11 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

The stock is up this year by 24%, but that does not help the 5 year total return much as the t year total return has a loss of 4.22% per year to date. I have noticed the same thing with other stocks. I must admit I have not done that well with this stock. I have had it for almost 2 years and my total return is 4.52% with a capital loss of 3.25% and dividends of 7.77%. I do expect to do better in the future.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2013 5 3.82% -4.06% -10.67% 6.61%
2008 10 5.64% 17.44% 6.56% 10.88%
2003 11 13.57% 4.94% 8.63%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.05, 17.48 and 21.90. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.38, 15.66 and 19.54. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.71, 13.94 and 17.17. The current P/E Ratio is 12.70 based on a stock price of $21.08 and 2019 EPS of $1.66. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $25.51. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76. 1.01 and 1.27. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.83 based on a stock price of $21.08. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.32. The current P/B Ratio is 1.21 based on Book Value of $636M, Book Value per Share of $17.42 and a stock price of $21.08. The current ratio is some 5.6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.79%. The current dividend yield is 7.83% based on Dividends of $1.65 and a stock price of $21.08. The current yield is 15% above the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 10.81. The current P/S Ratio is 6.75 based on 2019 revenue estimate of $114M, Revenue per Share of $5.12 and a stock price of $21.08. The current ratio is 38% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing seems to be that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. This is showing up in most of the testing except for the P/S Ratio which is show the stock as cheap. It would certainly seem that the stock is at a current good price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (5) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $22.61. This implies a total return of 15.09% with 7.26% from capital gains and 7.83% from dividends. On this sort of stock, you would expect a large portion of the return to be in dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Some like this company and some do not. Nelson Smith on Motley Fool talks about the company’s recent problems. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this stock is fairly priced. The company on Global Newswire talk about their fourth quarter results. Amanda Harley on Press Oracle talks about some recent analysts calls.

Alaris Royalty Corp is engaged in investing in operating entities in the form of preferred limited partnership interests, preferred interest in limited liability corporations in the United States, loans receivable or long-term license and royalty arrangements. Its web site is here Alaris Royalty Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF) ... learn more on Friday, April 5, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy April 2019.... learn more on Thursday, April 04, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, April 1, 2019

Sun Life Financial Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Stock price seems reasonable. This life insurance company seems to be doing better. See my spreadsheet on Sun Life Financial Inc.

I own this stock of Sun Life Financial Inc (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF). I first bought this stock in 2000 when it was first demutualized. It was very cheap. I bought more in 2001, 2003 and 2006. This stock was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth stock list and on the other dividend lists that I followed.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that for AUM, Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow, the per year value colors were changing from dark purple and blue to blue and green. This is a good sign.

The dividend yields on this stock are in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend is 3.88%, with 5, 10 and historical dividend yields of 3.64%, 4.18% and 3.62%. There have been fluctuations in the yield with a high of 8.24% and low of 1.24%.

The dividend growth is low (below 8%). See the chart below. This company, as did all insurance companies, had a hard time since the 2008 recession. The problem was very low interest rates. Between 2008 and 2015, there were no dividend increase. The overall dividend increases for 2018 was 9.17%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 46% with 5 year coverage at 45%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 15% with 5 year coverage at 16%.

Debt Ratios are fine. As for a bank, you want the company to cover their liabilities with assets. The ratio for this company is 0.90. I get a Liquidity Ratio of 1.82 although I know a lot of analysts do not pay any attention to the Liquidity Ratio for Life Insurance Companies. The Debt Ratio is 1.10 and this is fine for financials.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From Years Div Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div
2013 5 5.76% 7.00% 3.84% 3.16%
2008 10 2.84% 9.18% 4.76% 4.42%
2003 15 7.11% 5.93% 2.28% 3.65%
1998 19 7.52% 11.88% 6.92% 4.96%


The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.54, 11.92 and 13.38. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.50, 11.81 and 13.32. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.01, 13.57 and 15.09. The current P/E Ratio is 10.54 based on a stock price of $51.52 and 2019 EPS estimate of $4.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is almost cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $61.76. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.86 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.83 based on a stock price of $51.52. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.39. The current P/B Ratio is 1.49 based on Book Value of $20,749, Book Value per Share of $34.67 and a stock price of $51.52. The current ratio is some 7% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.62%. The current dividend yield is 3.88% based on dividend of $2.00 and a stock price of $51.52. The current dividend is 7% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.95. The current P/S Ratio is 0.94 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $32,788, Revenue per Share of $54.78 and a stock price of $51.52. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratio by 1.5%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is probably reasonable and about or below the median. This is showing up in the Dividend Yield and P/S Ratio tests. The P/B Ratio test show the stock price above the median, but a P/B Ratio of 1.49 is a low P/B Ratio.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy, (6), Hold (5) and Underperform (2). The consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $54.67. This implies a total return of $10.00 with 6.11% from capital gains and 3.88% from dividends. It is always interesting when there is such a diversion of opinions.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Seems it is not doing as well as it should. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks it is a good time to buy this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the CEO salary. There is an interesting Guru analysis of this company on Nasdaq. Eva Fuller on the Analyst Journal talks about some recent analyst recommendations for this stock.

Sun Life Financial provides insurance, retirement, and wealth-management products and services to individual and corporate customers in Canada, the U.S., and Asia. The company focuses primarily on individual life insurance and variable annuity products in Canada but also offers group insurance and employee benefits in the U.S. and has a growing presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Sun Life also maintains a majority ownership stake in MFS Investment Management, a Boston-based asset manager. Its web site is here Sun Life Financial Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was BCE Inc. (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Alaris Royalty Corp (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 03, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks April 2019.... learn more on Tuesday, April 02, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.