Is it a good company at a reasonable price? If you look at the stock chart this stock has gone straight up since April 2025. It is just off of a peak. The stock price has gone up 51% this year so far. This stock has certainly varied a lot in what it has produced for investors. A lot of analysts certainly think it has a great future, but I would be cautious and be with the analysts that rate it a Hold. All my tests show that the stock price is relatively expensive at the current time.
I do not own this stock of Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF). This stock has been coming up on Canada Stock Channel Weekly email in 2020. Site is Canada Stock Channel.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the loss for Jun 2026 was due to higher costs, especially higher Financing costs.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,000.35 you would have bought 65 shares at $15.39 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $408.85 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,033.20. Your total return would have been $2,442.05. This would be a total return of 10.27% per year with 7.35% from capital gain and 2.92% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.39 | $1,000.35 | 65 | 10 | $408.85 | $2,033.20 | $2,442.05 |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.62%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.61%, 3.37%, and 2.62%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 4% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2026 and it was for 1.3%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 330% with 5 year coverage at 139%. The DPR for 2025 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is far too high at 190% with 5 year coverage at 133%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is high at 68% with 5 year coverage far too high at 452%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF-1) is too high at 68% with 5 year coverage far too high at 453%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow 2 (FCF-2) is too high at 80% with 5 year coverage non-calculable.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 330.43% | 139.54% |
| AEPS | 190.00% | 133.45% |
| CFPS | 38.46% | 650.08% |
| FCF 1 | 68.43% | 452.69% |
| FCF 2 | 79.77% | -184.54% |
Debt Ratios need improving and the company has too much debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is good at 0.18 and currently at 0.14. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is fine at 1.48 and low at 1.08 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.51 and currently at 1.08. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 1.30 and to low at 1.28 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 4.33 and 3.32 and currently at 4.63 and 3.61.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| Intang/GW | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| Liquidity | 1.48 | 1.08 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.51 | 1.08 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Leverage | 4.33 | 4.63 |
| D/E Ratio | 3.32 | 3.61 |
The Total Return per Year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 3.99% | 17.36% | 13.84% | 3.52% |
| 2015 | 10 | 6.90% | 10.27% | 7.35% | 2.92% |
| 2010 | 15 | 9.31% | 10.53% | 7.74% | 2.80% |
| 2005 | 20 | 0.00% | 12.07% | 9.28% | 2.79% |
| 2000 | 25 | 8.45% | 12.21% | 9.76% | 2.45% |
| 1996 | 28 | 9.58% | 7.79% | 1.78% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.81, 24.32 and 28.13. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.08, 19.53 and 22.98. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.84, 12.65 and 18.51. The current ratio is 31.62 based on a stock price of $47.43 and EPS of $1.50. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.81, 24.32 and 28.13. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.08, 19.53 and 22.98. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.08, 19.53 and 22.98. The current ratio is 32.49 based on a stock price of $47.43 and EPS of $1.46. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $21.68. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 1.05 and 1.31. The current ratio is 2.19 based on a stock price of $47.43. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.26. The current ratio is 3.41 based on a stock price of $47.43, Book Value of $954.58M, Book Value per share of $13.93. The current ratio is 170% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.52. The current ratio is 61.60 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2026 of 0.77. The current ratio is 1016% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.62%. The current dividend yield is 1.62% based on a stock price of $47.43 and dividends of $0.77. The current dividend yield is 38% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.37%. The current dividend yield is 1.62% based on a stock price of $47.43 and dividends of $0.77. The current dividend yield is 52% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. For this test to have a stock price at a reasonable and below the median price, the stock price would have to be around $22.75.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.29. The current P/S is 0.51 based on a stock price of 47.43, Revenue estimate for 2026 of $6354M, and Revenue per Share of $92.72. The current ratio is 77% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. The stock price would have to be around $26.75 to get a reasonable and below the median stock price in this test.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The 10 year dividend yield test says that the stock price is relatively expensive. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All my tests are showing that the stock price is on the expensive side.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (4) and Hold (3). The consensus is Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $57.00 with a high of $64.00 and low of $49.00. The consensus stock price of $57.00 implies a total return of 21.80% with 20.18% from capital gains and 1.62% from dividends based on a current stock price of $47.43.
There is a number of entries on Stock Chase for this stock for 2026. The analysts like the company. The last two entries are Holds. They seem to be cautious in the short term, but like the company. Stock Chase gives this company 5 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says that nuclear is back and this company builds and refurbishes Nuclear plants. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a buy because it will benefit from the shift to Nuclear. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter results for 2025. The company put out a Press Release about their second quarter of 2026.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and asks if it is undervalued. Simply Wall Street has one warning of dividend of 1.66% is not well covered by earnings.
Aecon Group Inc is a Canada-based company that operates in two segments: Construction and Concessions. The Construction segment includes various aspects of the construction of public and private infrastructure projects. Its concessions segment is engaged in the development, financing, construction, and operation of construction projects. The company generates the maximum revenue from the Construction segment. Its web site is here Aecon Group Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was GFL Environmental Inc (TSX-GFL, NYSE-GFL) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX-CHE.UN, OTC-CGIFF) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Top Performing Canadian Dividend Stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, August 18, 2026 around 5 pm.
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