Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that this is a good company, but viewing the total return over time, you obviously must be careful when you buy. The testing is showing that the stock price might still be reasonable. However, the current stock price is at the top of the current cycle. It might go higher, but I think that caution is called for. My testing is saying it might be reasonable, but only the future will tell.
I own this stock of Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). This was one of the stocks on Mike Higgs' list of good dividend growth stocks. So, I looked into it and bought it. I bought this stock first in 2008 and then some more in 2009. It is a little followed real estate company from Western Canada.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed overall I have not done that well on this stock. My total return is 6.66% with 2.94% from capital gains and 3.72% from dividends. The problem is that my initial purchases in 2008 were at a too high a price compared to today. The stock turned out to be rather cyclical.
I noticed that this year there is no analysts estimates for this stock. In other years there have been a few analysts following this stock and commenting on it and giving some estimates, but this year, none. I also noticed that a number of insiders in the past year have bought more shares.
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,004.64 you would have bought 96 shares at $14.56 per share. In December 2025, after 10 years you would have received $340.86 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,051.56. Your total return would have been $1,392.42. This would be a total return of 3.87% per year with 0.46% from capital gain and 3.32% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.56 | $1,004.64 | 69 | 10 | $340.86 | $1,051.56 | $1,392.42 |
If you had invested in this company in December 2015, for $1,007.94 you would have bought 107 shares at $9.42 per share. In December 2025, after 5 years you would have received $276.06 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,630.68. Your total return would have been $1,906.74. This would be a total return of 14.07% per year with 10.10% from capital gain and 4.60% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $9.42 | $1,007.94 | 107 | 5 | $276.06 | $1,630.68 | $1,906.74 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges). The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 3.68%, 3.66% and 2.99%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is moderate (less than 8% per year) at 7.1%. The last dividend increase was in 2026 and it was for 15%. However, note that this company pays dividends semi-annually and they decide near the time for the dividends on what to pay. The dividends paid are sometimes higher and sometimes lower than the last dividends paid. However, generally over time, the dividend payments have gone up.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2025 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 15% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for 2025 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 12% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for 2025 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 12% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for 2025 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 13% with 5 year coverage at 22%. I have two values for FCF for 2025 of $91.9M and $107.9M. I am using the $107.9M value.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 15.44% | 16.60% |
| FFO | 11.88% | 18.18% |
| CFPS | 12.47% | 13.40% |
| FCF | 13.43% | 22.29% |
Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2025 is high at 1.20 and currently more moderate at 0.99. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2025 which is good at 0.48 and currently at 0.48 because this is a more important ratio for a Real Estate. The Liquidity Ratio for 2025 is good at 5.23 and 5.23 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2025 is good at 2.44 and 2.62 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2025 are good at 1.62 and 0.62 and currently at 1.62 and 0.62.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R+A | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| Lg Term R | 1.20 | 0.99 |
| Intang/GW | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liquidity | 5.23 | 5.23 |
| Liq. + CF | 6.66 | 6.40 |
| Debt Ratio | 2.44 | 2.62 |
| Leverage | 1.62 | 1.62 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.62 | 0.62 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2025. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | 7.14% | 14.70% | 10.10% | 4.60% |
| 2015 | 10 | -2.21% | 3.78% | 0.46% | 3.32% |
| 2010 | 15 | 2.13% | 3.75% | 0.17% | 3.57% |
| 2005 | 20 | 5.99% | 4.85% | 1.27% | 3.59% |
| 2000 | 25 | 8.01% | 16.80% | 8.63% | 8.17% |
| 1995 | 30 | 9.68% | 22.36% | 9.43% | 12.93% |
| 1990 | 35 | 11.70% | 16.59% | 8.42% | 8.17% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.44, 6.94, and 7.93. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.29, 9.29 and 10.60. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.12, 7.21 and 8.42. The current ratio is 9.62 based on a stock price of $18.37 and EPS for the last 12 months of $1.91. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 3.62, 4.26 and 4.48. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 4.64, 6.69 and 8.96. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.14, 7.49 and 9.33. The current ratio is 4.55 based on a stock price of $18.37 and FFO for the last 12 months of $4.04. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $42.55. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.34, 0.38 and 0.43. The current ratio is 0.43 based on a stock price of $18.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.36. The current ratio is 0.44 based on a Book Value of $1,268M, Book Value per Share of $42.13 and a stock price of $18.37. The current ratio is 21% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.41. The current ratio is 5.91 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $93.6M, Cash Flow per Share of $3.11 and a stock price of $18.37. The current ratio is 20% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.99%. The current dividend yield is 3.27% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $18.37. The current ratio is 9% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.66%. The current dividend yield is 3.27% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $18.37. The current ratio is 11% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.56. The current P/S Ratio is 1.35 based on Revenue for the last 12 months of $410.5M, Revenue per Share of $13.64 and a stock price of $18.37. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could still be reasonable. The 10 year median dividend yield test says it is reasonable, but above the median. The P/S Ratio test says that it is reasonable and below the median. The rest of the testing varies from cheap to expensive.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one site that gives it a Hold (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $14.00 with a high of $14.00 and low of $14.00. The 12 months stock price of $14.00 would imply a total loss of 20.52% with 23.79% from capital loss and 3.27% from dividends.
There is little analyst review on Stock Chase. However, it is a Past Top Pic of Michael O’Reilly. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this stock is no longer a cyclical stock and has a safe dividend. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks this is an undervalued stock to watch. The company has a press release via Global Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2025.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and think that it is worth watching. They have one warning of unstable dividend track record. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5.
Melcor Developments Ltd is a real estate development company. It develops and manages mixed-use residential communities, business and industrial parks, office buildings, retail commercial centers, and golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor Developments Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Goodfellow Inc (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF) ... learn more on Friday, April 17, 2026 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about McCoy Global on Wolfe of Oakville.... learn more on April 16, 2026 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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