Capital Power Corp

Yesterday, I bought some more shares of Titanium Transportation Group Inc (TSX-TTNM, OTC-TTNMF) with money in the TFSA account, which is my fooling around money. I will be reviewing this stock on September 6, 2022.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Stock price would seem to be currently expensive. Debt Ratios could be improved. Some Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high (like the DPR for AEPS), but analysts expect DPRs to drop in 2022. The company has a lot of debt. See my spreadsheet on Capital Power Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think this stock price is on the expensive side, so now would not be a good time to buy. This is a utility stock with a history of good returns to shareholders for the short time it has been on the TSX. It would have a risk rating of low. Dividend growth portfolios should have some utility stocks in these.

I do not own this stock of Capital Power Corp (TSX-CPX, OTC-CPRHF). Capital power Corp is in John Heinzl's yield Hog model portfolio. In Money Sense annual list of the 100 best dividend stocks or 2021, this stock was rated an A. In the latest Money Sense list of 2022, it is rated a B.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed Analyst expected the EPS to go to $1.99 in 2021, a 158.44% increase. Instead, the EPS dropped to $0.39, a 49% decrease. For 2022, analysts expect an EPS of $2.96, a 659% increase over 2021. EPS for 2023 is lower at $2.26 and then an increase for 2024 to $3.44.

I noticed that Canadian Stock Channel has this stock on their weekly interesting buy list of August 27, 2022.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,004.80 you would have bought 40 shares at $25.12 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $639.50 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,578.40. Your total return would have been $2,217.50.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$25.12	$1,004.80	40	10	$639.50	$1,578.40	$2,217.90

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.30%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.51%, 6.27% and 5.95%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 6.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2021 and it was for 6.8%.

Some Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high (like the DPR for AEPS), but analysts expect DPRs to drop in 2022. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 535% with 5 year coverage at 178%. Analysts expect this DPR to drop to 74% in 2022. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 106% with 5 year coverage at 143%. Analysts expect this DPR to drop to 69% in 2022. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) for 2021 is 39% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2021 is 28% with 5 year coverage at 29%. For CFPS, a DPR of 40% or lower is a good one. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2021 is 89% with 5 year coverage at 126%. Analysts expect this DPR to drop to 45% in 2022.

Debt Ratios could be improved. The company has a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.71. This is a rather high. The current ratio is good at 0.49. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 0.98 and if you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.42. I prefer this to be 1.50 or high. The Debt Ratio is 1.46. I prefer this also to be 1.50 or higher. The 5 year median ratio is good at 1.56. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2021 is 4.35 and 2.98. The Leverage ratio is too high at 4.35 and I prefer this to be under 3.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 12 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	6.67%	17.63%	11.18%	6.45%
2011	10	5.17%	9.71%	4.62%	5.09%
2009	12	4.29%	10.61%	5.24%	5.37%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.49, 38.42 and 48.72. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 23.42, 28.95 and 34.47. The corresponding historical ratios are 22.06, 27.68 and 30.57. The current P/E Ratio is 17.22 based on a stock price $50.97 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $2.96. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, these are very high P/E Ratios for a Utility.

I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median P/AFFO are 5.85, 6.78 and 7.70. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.07, 5.97 and $6.98. The current P/AFFO ratio is 8.16 based on a stock price of $50.97 and AFFO estimate for 2022 of 6.25. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, these are very low P/AFFO Ratios for a utility or any stock.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median P/AEPS Ratios are 19.72, 23.29 and 26.18. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.92, 21.40 and 24.08. The current P/AEPS ratio is 16.13 based on a stock price of $50.97 and AEPS estimate for 2022 of $3.16. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $35.73. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.01, 1.10 and 1.31. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.43 based on a stock price of $50.97. The current P/GP Ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

If I used in the Graham Price calculation, the AEPS, instead of EPS the Graham Price would be 36.91. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.11 and 1.22. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.38 based on a stock price of $50.97. The current P/GP Ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.10. The current P/B Ratio is 2.66 based on a stock price of $50.97, Book Value of $2,232M and Book Value per Share of $19.16. The current P/B Ratio is 141% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.24. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.54 based on a stock price of $50.97, Cash Flow per Share estimate of $9.20, and Cash Flow of $1072M. The current ratio is 6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.95%. The current dividend yield is 4.30% based on dividends of $2.19 and a stock price of $50.97. The current dividend yield is 28% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.27%. The current dividend yield is 4.30% based on dividends of $2.19 and a stock price of $50.97. The current dividend yield is 31% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.65. The current P/S Ratio is 2.74 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $2,167M, Revenue per Share of $18.61 and a stock price of $50.97. The current P/S Ratio is 66% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. Both the dividend yield tests and the P/S Ratio tests say the same thing, that the stock is relatively expensive. Some of the other tests say the same thing. The P/E Ratio and P/AEPS Ratio tests say the stock is cheap. In both these cases, the ratios are on the high side.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4) and Hold (8). The consensus is a Buy. The consensus 12 month stock price is $50.81. This implies a total return of 3.98% with a 0.31% from a capital loss and 4.30% from dividends based on a current stock price of $50.97.

There are only two analysts’ reports for 2020 on Stock Chase. Analyst seem to like this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Money Sense gives this stock a B rating. Adam Othman on Motley Fool includes this stock in three that are beating the market. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a safe place to park your money. The company in a Press Release talk about their fourth quarter. The company in a Press Release talk about their second quarter of 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They have 3 warnings of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 4.53% is not well covered by earnings; and profit margins (6.4%) are lower than last year (10.4%).

Capital Power Corp is a North American power producer whose principal activities are developing, acquiring, and operating power plants. Through its subsidiary, Capital Power owns and operates a portfolio of natural gas, coal, wind, solar, and solid fuel energy generating facilities. These are located throughout Western and Central Canada and the U.S. Its web site is here Capital Power Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF) ... learn more on September 2, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Buy Defensive and Quality.... learn more on Thursday, September 1, 2022 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Medieval World by Susan Wise Bauer learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

ATCO Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine, as they are expected to go lower. Debt Ratios are probably fine. Analysts are still expecting improvements in the company’s revenue and earnings. See my spreadsheet on ATCO Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable. The total return over the past 15 years is not reaching 8% and I think that is a reasonable expectation for a utility. (And, by the way, Canadian Utilities is not reaching that mark either.) The dividend yield has been over 3% for the past 5 years and this is good. All dividend portfolios should have at least one utility stock. However, there are lots to chose from.

I do not own this stock of ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF). I started to look at this stock in 2009 because it was a dividend paying stock that was on everyone’s list. At that time this stock was on the Dividend Achievers list, the Dividend Aristocrats list and was on Mike Higgs’ list. ATCO (TSX-ACO-X) owns 52.3% (2021) Canadian Utilities (TSX-CU), so you would not buy both these stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed analysts expect a big rise in EPS of some 35%. Instead, EPS went down slightly by 2.3%. The estimates for 2022 and 2023 for Revenue were $4,264M, and $4,495M last year. Estimates now for 2022 and 2023 are much higher at $4,970 and $4,858. EPS estimates have also gone up for 2022 and 2023 which in 2021 were $2.97, and $3.17 and now they are $3.54, and $3.44.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,024.08 you would have bought 34 shares at $30.12 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $420.40 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,451.80. Your total return would have been $1,872.20.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$30.12	$1,024.08	34	10	$420.40	$1,451.80	$1,872.20

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.90%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 3.76%, 2.72% and 2.15%. The dividends have increased by 9.5% per year over the past 5 years. However, the dividend increases have been lower lately, with the last dividend increase in 2022 at 2.99% and the one for 2021 at 3.01%. Dividend Payout Ratios is relatively high in 2021, so recent lower increases.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine, as they are expected to go lower. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 83% with 5 year coverage at 59%. It is expected to decrease to 52% in 2022. For Adjust Earnings per Share (AEPS), the DPR for 2021 is $54% with 5 year coverage at 51%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2021 is 11% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2021 is 40% with 5 year coverage at 63%. However, 3 sites I looked at varied greatly in what they say the FCF was.

Debt Ratios are probably fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 1.95. This is a utility and they always have lots of debt, but this ratio is very high. Note that the company says that they have Property, Plant and Equipment valued at $18,791 which is twice as high as the long term debt. Also, the Assets/Current Liabilities Ratio is high at 14.50. This means they have ample coverage of their current debt (it is just tided up in longer term assets).

The Liquidity Ratio is 1.40 and is lower that what I like as I like this to be at least 1.50. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.53. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.89 and 1.89 and these are fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	9.48%	2.72%	-0.89%	3.62%
2011	10	12.14%	6.89%	3.55%	3.34%
2006	15	10.34%	6.39%	3.60%	2.79%
2001	20	10.14%	9.89%	6.69%	3.19%
1996	25	11.07%	11.68%	8.21%	3.47%
1991	30	11.99%	12.79%	9.26%	3.53%
1988	33	11.46%	13.57%	9.87%	3.70%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.75, 18.82, 21.29. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.18, 14.07 and 16.21. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.99, 10.54 and 12.18. The current ratio is 13.39 based on a stock price of $47.41 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $3.54. The current ratio is between the low and the median of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I have Adjusted Earnings per Share data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.37, 13.49 and 16.02. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.61, 13.41 and 15.89. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 13.09 based on a stock price of $47.41 and AEPS estimate for 2022 of $3.62. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $54.61. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 0.99 and 1.10. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.87 based on a stock price of $47.41. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.39. The current P/B Ratio is 1.27 based on stock price of $47.41, Book Value of 4,283M, and Book Value per Share of $37.44. The current ratio is 8.75% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.76. The current P/CF Ratio is 2.47 based on a stock price of $47.41, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $19.20, and Cash Flow of $2,196M. The current ratio is 11% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.15%. The current dividend yield is 3.90% based on a stock price of $47.41 and dividends of $1.8468. The current dividend yield is 81% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.72%. The current dividend yield is 3.90% based on a stock price of $47.41 and dividends of $1.8468. The current dividend yield is 43% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.17. The current ratio is 1.09 based on a stock price of $47.41, Revenue estimate for 2022 of $4,970M and Revenue per Share of $43.45. The current ratio is 7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests say it is cheap and the P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable and below the median. The other test believe shows the stock price as reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2), Hold (3) and Sell (1). The recommendations are quite broad. Very different opinions about this stock. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $50.21. This implies a total return of 9.80% with 5.91% from capital gains and 3.90% from dividends.

Most analysts, but not all on Stock Chase like this stock. One analyst says it is a good defensive stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on Money Sense list with a B rating. Kay Ng Motley Fool talks about why you should invest in utilities like ACO. But this is an old entry. Motley Fool cannot access info on this stock, it seems. There is a more recent Motley Fool report by Christopher Liew on Yahoo Finance. The company on a Press Release talks about its fourth quarter. The company talks about on Newswire its second quarter of 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance likes that insider are buying shares. Simply Wall Street has two warnings on this stock of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.3% per year for the next 3 years and interest payments are not well covered by earnings.

Atco Ltd is a Canadian holding company that offers gas, electric, and infrastructure solutions. The largest subsidiary of the company is Canadian utilities, which operates natural gas, electricity, and logistical services. It generates maximum revenue from the Utilities segment. Geographically, it derives most of its revenue from Canada. Its web site is here ATCO Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Exchange Income Corp (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Capital Power Corp (TSX-CPX, OTC-CPRHF) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 31, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Best Canadian Stocks for August 2022 .... learn more on Tuesday, August 30, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Exchange Income Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price seems reasonable. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) probably will be fine. Analysts expect improvement. I would like to see the Debt Ratios improved. See my spreadsheet on Exchange Income Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable. Shareholders have mostly done fine with this stock. The dividend is good at 4.96%, but for this company it is about the lowest it has been. I will suspect the yield will go down in the future as this company used to be an Income Trust and Income Trust used to have higher dividend yields than corporations. Dividend growth has been low as there is a trade off between yield and growth for dividends.

I do not own this stock of Exchange Income Corp (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF). One of my blogger readers suggested this stock as one to review. There was an interesting article about this stock in the G&M in May 2013. This article suggested that the company had a hefty yield with an acquisition tailwind. This article is now behind a paywall. This article is available here.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed Revenue estimates for 2022 and 2023 have greatly increased in 2022. Last year, the Revenue estimates for 2022 and 2023 were $1,567, and $1,704. This year they are $2,002 and $2,249. But EPS has not changed that much as they went from $2.87, and $3.69 for 2022 and 2023 to $2.80 and $4.25.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,016.40 you would have bought 40 shares at $25.41 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $792.70 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,685.60. Your total return would have been $2,478.30.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$25.41	$1,016.40	40	10	$792.70	$1,685.60	$2,478.30

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.96%. The 5 and 10 year dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.16% and 6.67%. The historical dividend yield is high (7% or higher) at 7.42%. On July 28, 2009 the company changed from an income trust to a corporation. Income Trust had much higher dividend yields than corporations.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) probably will be fine. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 127% with 5 year coverage at 116%. Analysts expect this to drop to 84% in 2022 and 56% in 2023. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2021 is 101% with 5 year coverage at 102%. Analyst expect this to drop to 72% in 2022 and 53% in 2024. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 33% with 5 year coverage also at 33%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is 49% with 5 year coverage at 59%.

I would like to see the Debt Ratios improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.67. It is a little high. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 1.47. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.89. I prefer this ratio be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.45, but it is normal for this company. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 3.23 and 2.23. These are also normal for this company, but I prefer them to be less than 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	2.86%	5.45%	0.19%	5.26%
2011	10	3.61%	11.37%	5.19%	6.18%
2006	15	4.14%	16.74%	8.10%	8.64%
2003	18	8.84%	34.63%	14.56%	20.07%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.04, 15.07 and 18.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.32, 18.15 and 22.15. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.28, 15.44 and 18.48. The current P/E Ratio is 17.29 based on a stock price of $48.40 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $2.80. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I have Adjusted Earnings per Share data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.62, 13.79 and 16.97. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.80, 16.04 and 19.74. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 14.89 based on AEPS estimate for 2022 of $3.25 and a stock price of $48.40. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Free Cash Flow per Share data for the company. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.33, 9.56 and 12.85. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.08, 10.73 and 13.36. The current P/FCF Ratio for 2022 is 10.61 based on a stock price of $48.40 and FCF per Share for 2022 of $4.56. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $35.93. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.25 and 1.54. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.35 based on a stock price of $48.40. The current P/GP Ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.80. The current P/B Ratio is 2.36 based on a Book Value of $818M, Book Value per Share of $20.49 and a stock price of $48.40. The current ratio is 31% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.75. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.12 based on a Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $237.8M, Cash Flow per Share of $5.96 and a stock price of $48.40. The current ratio is 41% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.42%. The current dividend yield is 4.96% based on a dividend of $2.40 and a stock price of $48.40. The current dividend yield is 33% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.67%. The current dividend yield is 4.96% based on a dividend of $2.40 and a stock price of $48.40. The current dividend yield is 26% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.04. The current P/S Ratio is 0.96 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $2,002M, Revenue per Share of $50.17 and a stock price of $48.40. The current ratio is 7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. This is what the P/S Ratio testing is showing. The problem with the Dividend Yield tests is that this company used to be an Income Trust and Income Trust companies have high dividend yields. Current dividend yields would be more normal. Both the P/E Ratio and P/AEPS Ratio tests say that the stock price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3) and Buy (3). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $61.43. This implies a total return of 31.88% with 26.92% from capital gains and 4.96% from dividends based on a stock price of $48.40.

Analysts on Stock Chase seem to like to stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Money Sense gives this stock a C grade. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool says it is a well-diversified business that generates cash and pays out a juicy monthly dividend. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool talks about this stock going down 6% a day after the company announced a bought deal share offering. The Fourth Quarter results of 2021 is announced via Business Wire on Yahoo Finance. The Second Quarter results of 2022 is announced via Business Wire on Yahoo Finance.

A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talks about . Simply Wall Street puts out 3 warnings of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 5.22% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years and shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Exchange Income Corp is a diversified acquisition-oriented corporation focused on opportunities in two sectors, aerospace, aviation services and equipment, and manufacturing. The business plan of the corporation is to invest in profitable, well-established companies with strong cash flows operating in niche markets. Its web site is here Exchange Income Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) ... learn more on Monday, August 29, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price seems in a reasonable range. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are low and very good. The dividend growth is very good. Debt Ratios are fine. See my spreadsheet on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price seems reasonable. This company has done very well for shareholders over the longer term. This would be a good stock to have in a portfolio if you are building a dividend portfolio. It would be different if you were living off a dividend portfolio as the dividend yield is very low. Occasionally this stock pays a dividend yield of 1% and if and when this happens again, it would be a good time to buy for a dividend portfolio you are living off of. This is because of the high rate of dividend increases.

I do not own this stock of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF). In 2004 I bought this stock as it had a good reputation and my spreadsheet showed I should do well with it. The only problem I had with it then was it had no dividend. I bought more of this stock in 2006 as it had a good past record and had started to pay a dividend. By the year end I bought more as TD Bank said it was a good time to buy this stock. I sold the stock in my trading account in 2007 as I was raising mortgage money and this stock had gone down so it was cheap, tax wise, to sell. In 2013, I sold the stock in my Pension account as it had the lowest dividend yield and I had to raise money in this account because of yearly withdrawals.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed analysts expected the revenue to increase by 21.61% to $55,651. However, revenue increased by 37.26% to $62,810. Analysts expected the EPS to decrease by 9.8% to $2.20, but instead the EPS increased by 3.3% to $2.52.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,003.83 you would have bought 190 shares at $5.28 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $351.10 in dividends. The stock would be worth $10,070.00. Your total return would have been $10,421.10.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$5.28	$1,003.83	190	10	$351.10	$10,070.00	$10,421.10

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) and 0.75%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0.60%, 0.67% and 0.63%. These are very low dividend yields. I do not buy stocks when the dividend yield is below 1%. I had this for awhile and bought when the dividend yield hit just over 1%. The dividend growth is good (15% or higher) at 18.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 25.7%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are low and very good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 12% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 12% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 7% with 5 year coverage at 6%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 8% with 5 year coverage at 8%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is low and good at 0.11. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is too low at 1.22, but if you add in cash flow after dividends, it is 1.82. I like it to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is 1.73 which is good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.38 and 1.38 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	18.72%	12.42%	11.73%	0.69%
2011	10	24.03%	26.96%	25.93%	1.03%
2006	15	22.71%	19.01%	18.37%	0.65%
2001	20	15.39%	22.21%	21.55%	0.67%
1996	25		27.39%	26.62%	0.77%
1992	29		33.05%	32.05%	1.00%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2021 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	19.87%	13.79%	13.09%	0.70%
2011	10	20.78%	24.16%	23.23%	0.94%
2006	15	21.53%	18.33%	17.67%	0.66%
2001	20	14.43%	23.69%	22.88%	0.80%
1996	25		25.31%	24.59%	0.72%
1992	29		32.01%	30.99%	1.03%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.11, 15.12 and 17.73. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.62, 15.89 and 18.94. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.50, 15.96 and 19.85. The current P/E Ratio is 17.61 based on a stock price. The current P/E Ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. Since the ratios over the 5, 10 and historical periods are quite consistent, this would be a good test. This testing is in CDN$.

I have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.33, 15.38 and 17.79. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.87, 16.11 and 19.74. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 17.29 based on a stock price of $45.13 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $2.61. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$, but you will get similar results in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $33.86. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.21, 1.50 and 1.76. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.71 based on a stock price of $58.24. The current ratio is above the 10 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.32. The current P/B Ratio is 3.75 based on a Book Value of $12,438M, Book Value per Share of $12.04 and a stock price of $45.13. The current ratio is 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$, but you will get similar results in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.92. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.48 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $3.93, Cash Flow of $4,059M and a stock price of $45.13. The current ratio is 16% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$, but you will get similar results in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.63%. The current dividend yield is 0.76% based on a stock price of $58.24 and dividends of $0.444. The current ratio is 19.9% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.60%. The current dividend yield is 0.76% based on a stock price of $58.24 and dividends of $0.444. The current ratio is 25.9% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in CDN$.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.57. The current P/S Ratio is 0.64 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $72,424M, Revenue per Share of $70.12 and a stock price of $45.13. The current ratio is 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$, but you will get similar results in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but above the median. The dividend yield tests show the stock price is reasonable to cheap, but this is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test which says it is reasonable, but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6), Buy (7) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price is $63.04 ($48.60 US$). This implies a total return of 9% with 8.25% from capital gains and 0.76% from dividends based on a stock price of $58.24.

The last two analysts on Stock Chase think that the stock is overpriced currently. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Money Sense gives this company a C rating. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool thinks that the companies next big deal might be for Suncor’s Petro Canada retail unit. Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool is a top value stock to consider now. The company releases on Newswire its fourth quarter results for 2022. Simply Wall Street reviews this stock via Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street has no warning signs for this company.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc operates a network of convenience stores across North America, Ireland, Scandinavia, Poland, the Baltics, and Russia. Its operation is geographically divided into U.S., Europe, and Canada. Revenue from external customers fall mainly into three categories: merchandise and services, road transportation fuel, and other. Its web site is here Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX-CHE.UN, OTC-CGIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exchange Income Corp (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF) ... learn more on Friday, August 26, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Compounding and Planning.... learn more on Thursday, August 25, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Materials. The stock price is reasonable. The stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are awful. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably too high. See my spreadsheet on Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price seems reasonable. However, it is not something I think I would like to own. I do not like the debt ratios. They have not done well for shareholders over the longer term. They cut the dividends in 2020 and analysts do not expect any change in dividends over the next 3 years. A cut in dividends is never a good sign. It shows the expectations of management which would be that they will not do well over the short term. However, as with most dividend paying stock, shareholders tend not to lose or lose much. See investment over 10 years chart below. It also has a very high dividend yield. Companies with high dividend tend not to raise the dividend much. It is not surprising they were cut.

I do not own this stock of Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX-CHE.UN, OTC-CGIFF). I decided to investigate this stock after reading an article in the G&M in February 2012 about investing in small cap stocks that pay dividends. This was one of the stocks mentioned that I had never heard of before.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed Book Value has decrease over the past few years and had decrease by some 44% in 2021. The decrease in 2021 is mainly due to a sale of assets. They also have a big EPS loss this year and this is mainly due to Cost of Sales being higher and Revenue. Revenue went down but Cost of Sales went up. Cost of Sales is below Revenue in the first two quarters of 2022.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,009.80 you would have bought 68 shares at $14.85 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $744.60 in dividends. The stock would be worth $503.20. Your total return would have been $1,247.80.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$14.85	$1,009.80	68	10	$744.60	$503.20	$1,247.80

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.56%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are high (7% or above) at 8.41%, 7.56% and 8.41%. This company was an income trust and income trusts can have higher dividends that corporations. The company is still called an income fund, but rules are changed in 2006 and were effective as of 2011. Dividends were decreased in 2007 and then were flat until 2020, when they were decreased again. Dividends are now expected to be flat again.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably too high. The DPR for EPS for 2021 are not calculable because EPS is negative. The same applies to the 5 year coverage. DPR for EPS is expected to be around 92% in 2022. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2021 is 22% with 5 year coverage at 36%. The DPR for Distributable Income (or Cash) for 2021 is 72% with 5 year coverage at 118%. Until the first quarter of 2022, the company was putting out Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The DPR for AFFO for 2021 was38% with 5 year coverage at 60%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 is 39% with 5 year coverage at 75%.

Debt Ratios are awful. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2021 is too high at 1.17. This means that the Long Term Debt is higher than the Market Cap and this is not good. The Liquidity Ratio is very low at 0.53 and even with adding in Cash Flow after dividends it is still low at 0.88. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. The Liquidity Ratio with cash flow after dividends for the second quarter of 2022 is better at 1.30, but still low. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is too low at 1.23 and I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are too high at 5.39 and 4.39. I prefer these to be below 3.00 and below 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	-12.94%	-9.76%	-17.14%	7.37%
2011	10	-6.70%	3.10%	-6.73%	9.83%
2006	15	-5.64%	14.42%	-0.56%	14.98%
2001	20	0.96%	12.59%	-2.29%	14.87%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative, so useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.25, 11.00 and 13.04. The current P/E Ratio is 13.09 based on a stock price of $8.51 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $0.65. This ratio is between the low and median historical ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Distributable Cash data. The 5-year low, median, and high median P/DC Ratios are 9.10, 11.65 and 14.56. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.86, 10.51 and 12.19. The current P/DC Ratio is 6.60 based on DC for last 12 months of $1.29, and a stock price of $8.51. The current ratio is below the 10 year median low ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $7.84 . The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.98, 1.11 and 1.25. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.09 based on a stock price of $8.51. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.51. The current P/B Ratio is 2.02 based on a stock price of $8.51, the Book Value of $438M and the Book Value per Share of $4.20. The current ratio is 34% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.75. The current ratio is 4.28 based on a stock price of $8.51, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $1.99 and Cash Flow of $207M. The current ratio is 37% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.41%. The current dividend yield is 7.05% based on a stock price of $8.51 and dividends of $0.60. The current yield is 16% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.36%. The current dividend yield is 7.05% based on a stock price of $8.51 and dividends of $0.60. The current yield is 4% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.87. The current P/S Ratio is 0.53 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $1,688M, Revenue per Share of $16.20 and a stock price of $8.51. The current ratio is 40% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests say that it is reasonable. The P/S Ratio test says the stock price is cheap. The problem with the dividend yield is the recent cut in dividends. Since they are not expected to go up in the next 3 years, the cut in the dividends is a negative, so I will go with reasonable. Various other test says the stock price is from cheap to reasonable to expensive.

Last year I said that the results of stock price testing were that the stock price was probably cheap. The dividend yield tests say the stock is reasonable and cheap even with a 50% dividend cut. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock is also cheap. The other good tests of P/CF Ratio and P/B Ratio also say that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (5) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $10.89. This implies a total return of 35.02% with 27.97% from capital gains and 7.05% from dividends.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), Hold (3) and Underperform (1). The consensus recommendation would be a Buy, but there is a big range of recommendations. The 12 month stock price is $8.28. This implies a total return of 41.40% with 31.85% from capital gains and 9.55% from dividends based on a stock price of $6.28. What happened is a stock move to 8.51 and a total return of 45.06% with 35.51% from capital gains and 9.55% from dividends. So, they were accurate.

One analyst on Stock Chase says that new Management is turning the company around. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense list. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says it is good passive income company. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool likes this stock for its high yield. The company announced the results on Business Wire for the fourth quarter of 2021. The company announced its results for the second quarter of 2022 on Business Wire. Simply Wall Street reports on this stock via Yahoo Finance. They have one warning of dividend of 6.56% is not well covered by earnings.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund provides industrial chemicals and services to customers in North America and around the world. Its geographical segments are Canada, the United States, and South America. Its web site is here Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 24, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about What Do Investors Believe .... learn more on Tuesday, August 23, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Aecon Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price seems relatively cheap. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. Debt Ratios could improve. Insiders are buying and that is a positive. See my spreadsheet on Aecon Group Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price is reasonable and is probably cheap. Just because it is cheap does not make it a good buy. Until recently, the company has produced total returns of at least 8% which is the acceptable level I look at. The CEO and CFO are buying shares. Directors are not.

I do not own this stock of Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF). This stock has been coming up on Canada Stock Channel Weekly email. Site is Canada Stock Channel.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that there was a lot of insiders buying over the past year and not insider selling. Both the CEO and CFO increased the number of shares that they hold. I also noticed that the last dividend increase was for 5.7%, which is lower than the last 5 year average of 9% per year.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,004.16 you would have bought 96 shares at $10.46 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $443.04 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1620.48. Your total return would have been $2,063.52.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$10.46	$1,004.16	96	10	$443.04	$1,620.48	$2,063.52

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.55%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.91%, 2.88% and 2.29%. The dividends have been increasing at a moderate rate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 5.7% and it was done in 2022.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 88% with 5 year coverage at 62%. The DPR is a bit too high. Analysts expect the DPR for 2022 to be around 59%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 24% with 5 year coverage at 19%. The CFPS DPR is good. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) cannot be calculated for 2021 because it is negative. The 5 year coverage is 72%. Analysts expect the FCF to be negative in 2022 also.

Debt Ratios could improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.51 and this is good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.46. They had a negative cash flow in 2021, so adding in cash flow after dividends does not raise their ratio, but if you add in Cash Flow without Working Capital and Dividends, the ratio is 1.53. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.38. It has always been low and I prefer this to be 1.50. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2021 is 3.60 and 2.60. These are also high and I prefer them to be below 3.00 and below 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	9.01%	5.62%	2.05%	3.57%
2011	10	13.10%	8.31%	4.90%	3.41%
2006	15	17.69%	9.81%	6.62%	3.18%
2001	20	9.10%	9.32%	6.95%	2.37%
1996	25	9.60%	8.42%	6.44%	1.99%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.26, 18.26 and 21.26. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.15, 18.46 and 21.81. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.84, 12.65 and 18.51. The current P/E Ratio is 34.24 based on a stock price of $11.30 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $0.33. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

EPS dropped by 40% in 2021 (from $1.29 to $0.78). Analysts expect another drop this year by 58% to $0.33. (Note that last 12 months EPS to the end of the second quarter, the EPS is $0.40.) For 2023 analysts expect EPS for 0.73. This gives us a P/E Ratio of 15.48. This ratio is between the low and median ratios for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $10.47. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.84, 1.01 and 1.19. The current ratio is 1.08 based on a stock price of $11.30. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. (Note that the P/GP Ratio drops to 0.73 in 2023.)

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.22. The current P/B Ratio is 0.77 based on a Book Value of $900M, Book Value per Share of $14.77 and a stock price of $11.30. The current ratio is 37% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.59. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.71 based on a stock price of $11.30, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $1.98 and Cash Flow of $121M. The current ratio is 2% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. (The CFPS estimate for 2023 is low at $1.86, but that still gives a stock price that is relatively reasonable but above the median.)

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.29%. The current dividend yield is 6.55% based on dividends of $0.74 and a stock price of $11.30. The current dividend yield is 186% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.88%. The current dividend yield is 6.55% based on dividends of $0.74 and a stock price of $11.30. The current dividend yield is 127% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.29. The current P/S Ratio is 0.15 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $4,473M, Revenue per Share of $73.38 and a stock price of $11.30. The current ratio is 47% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Other tests say it is reasonable and above or below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (10). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $14.23. This implies a total return of 32.48% with 25.93% from capital gains and 6.55% from dividends based on a stock price of $11.30. This consensus stock price and total return does not really match up with the analysts’ recommendations. The high and low values for the stock price are $20.00 and $17.00.

The last three analysts rated this company on Stock Chase Do Not Buy, Buy, and Hold. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Money Sense rates this company a B. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks that the company is no longer the solid long-term investment it once was. Kay Ng on Motley Fool says investors will need to be able to withstand greater volatility in holding this stock and bear the possibility of a dividend cut. The company put out a Press Release about its 2021 results. The company put out a Press Release on their second quarter 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance has put out a rather negative report on this stock. Simply Wall Street also lists 3 warnings for this stock of dividend of 6.55% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years; large one-off items impacting financial results; and Profit margins (0.6%) are lower than last year (2.7%).

Aecon Group Inc is a Canada-based company that operates in two segments: Construction and Concessions. Aecon generates the majority of its revenue from the Construction segment. Its web site is here Aecon Group Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was GFL Environmental Inc (TSX-GFL, NYSE-GFL) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX-CHE.UN, OTC-CGIFF) ... learn more on Monday, August 22, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

GFL Environmental Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. I think that the stock might be expensive currently. Debt Ratios are need improving. . Dividend yields are so low, you wonder about it being a dividend stock. See my spreadsheet on GFL Environmental Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think the current price might be on the expensive side. There is a big divergence of opinion on this stock. Even in my investment club, one person thought it was a great stock and another did not like it at all because it is just doing acquisition. Personally, for me to like this stock, I would like to see it make some money. The Adjusted EPS does imply that it is. I am adding this stock to the list of stocks that I follow. Love it or hate it, it will be interesting to see where it goes.

I do not own this stock of GFL Environmental Inc (TSX-GFL, NYSE-GFL). GFL Environmental (TSX:GFL) is small, pays dividend and talked about by Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this stock came on TSX in March 2020. It pays a dividend, but the dividend is so low, you wonder about it being a dividend paying stock at all. It is growing fast, but only by acquisitions.

If you had invested in this company in March 2020, when it was first issued, for $1,008.00 you would have bought 45 shares at $22.40 per share. In December 2021, after 2 years you would have received $49.23 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,152.35. Your total return would have been $21,366.56.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$22.40	$1,008.00	45	2	$49.23	$2,152.35	$2,201.58

The dividend yields are very low with dividend growth moderate. The dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 0.16%. This is a very low yield. The company has increased the dividends twice, once in 2022 (for 10%) and once in 2023 for 9.1%. The dividend increases are in the moderate area (8% to 14% ranges).

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are low, so very good. I cannot calculate the DPR for EPS because this company has yet to make a profit. There is Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The DPR for AEPS for 2021 is 13%. Dividends so far been paid only in 2020 to 2022. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2021 is 2.13%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2021 is 2.8%.

Debt Ratios are need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.44. It has been higher in the past and for the Second Quarter of 2022 it is higher at 0.61. This is both because of higher debt and low stock price. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 0.98 and that is low. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is 1.56. The current Liquidity Ratio is lower at 0.63. If you had in cash flow after dividends it is still low at 1.15. I prefer this ratio be 1.50. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is 1.46. I also prefer this ratio to be 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are too high at 3.18 and 2.18. I prefer them to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for 2 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2019	2	10.00%	46.30%	46.13%	0.17%

The Total Return per year is shown below for 2 to the end of 2021 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	10.00%	50.28%	50.10%	0.18%

The 2-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are all negative and so unusable.

We have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The P/AEPS P/E 2-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios 87.90, 128.94 and 169.98. The current P/AEPS ratio is 52.26 based on AEPS estimate for 2022 of $0.57 and a stock price of $29.54. The current ratio is below the 2 year low ratio. By this measure the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get similar results with CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $16.91 (based on AEPS). The 2-year low, median, and high median ratios are 2.59, 3.56 and 4.53. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.34 based on a stock price of $37.97. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 2 year low ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in CDN$/

I get a 3-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.66. The current P/B Ratio is 2.32 based on a stock price of $37.97, Book Value of $4,824M, and Book Value per Share of $12.71. The current ratio is 40% above the 3 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get similar results with CDN$.

I get a 3-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 18.45. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.44 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $3.32, Cash Flow of 1,260M and a stock price of $29.54. The current ratio is 38% below the 3 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 2-year median dividend yield of 0.14%. The current yield is 0.16% based on dividends of $0.05 and a stock price of $29.54. The current dividend yield is 16% above the 2 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in US$. In CDN$ you get a cheap price, but dividends are paid in US$.

The 3-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.12. The current P/S Ratio is 2.20 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $5,093M ($6,488M CDN$) and a stock price of $29.54. The current ratio is 96% above the 2 year median P/S Ratio. By this measure the stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$ and you will get similar results with CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. I have little data to go on. The dividend yield test says cheap, but this is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The stock price has increased a lot since it started. This is a solid waste management business, not a tech stock. So, I am going with expensive. Of course, I can be completely wrong.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (8), Hold (1), and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $49.00. This implies a total return of 29.21% with 29.05% from capital gains and 0.16% from dividends.

All the analysts rate this stock on Stock Chase as Do Not Buy. They say that it is struggling to make a profit and it is overpriced. Stock Chase gives this stock a rating of 3 stars out of 5. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool says it is a good defensive stock to buy. The company has put out a Press Release for their fourth quarter results. The company has put out a Press Release on their second quarter of 2022 results. A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance says this company is undervalued and worth $63.49 CDN$. Simply Wall Street gives two warnings of significant insider selling over the past 3 months and shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

GFL Environmental Inc. provides environmental services principally in North America. It offers non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure & soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. Its web site is here GFL Environmental Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BADFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF) ... learn more on Friday, August 19, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Buy Canadian Banks .... learn more on Thursday, August 18, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.