Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock testing is showing the stock price as expensive. The company does not seem to be making much progress as far as earnings and revenue is concerned. Although analysts expect revenue to pick up in this financial year. Who knows if this will ever be a good tech stock again?
I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB), but I used to. I bought this stock for capital gain. I first bought it in 1999 and then some more in 2000. I sold some in 2006 and 2007 to lock in some profit. I sold the rest of my stock in 2010. I had the stock for some 10 years and made a total return of $20% per year.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this stock is also reporting on Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS). The AEPS is better than EPS, but still in 2022, they had an earnings loss. The financial year on this stock ends February 28, so the Financial Year I am looking at is February 28, 2022.
If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1,006.40 you would have bought 68 shares at $14.80 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $0 in dividends. The stock would be worth $803.76. Your total return would have been $803.76.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.80 | $1,006.40 | 68 | 10 | $0.00 | $803.76 | $803.76 |
This stock pays no dividends and has never paid any dividends.
Debt Ratios are good. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good and low at 0.13. The Liquidity Ratio is high and good at 2.63. The Debt Ratio is high and good at 2.54. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.65 and 0.65.
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 5 | 0.00% | 5.19% | 5.19% | 0.00% |
| 2011 | 10 | 0.00% | -2.22% | -2.22% | 0.00% |
| 2006 | 15 | 0.00% | -9.13% | -9.13% | 0.00% |
| 2001 | 20 | 0.00% | 3.20% | 3.20% | 0.00% |
| 1996 | 25 | 0.00% | 9.55% | 9.55% | 0.00% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2021 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 5 | 0.00% | 6.30% | 6.30% | 0.00% |
| 2011 | 10 | 0.00% | -4.29% | -4.29% | 0.00% |
| 2006 | 15 | 0.00% | -9.61% | -9.61% | 0.00% |
| 2001 | 20 | 0.00% | 4.40% | 4.40% | 0.00% |
| 1996 | 25 | 0.00% | 9.90% | 9.90% | 0.00% |
The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and so useless. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.42, 14.69 and 19.58. The current P/E Ratio is negative so cannot be used in testing.
I do have Adjusted Earnings per Share data. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/AEPS Ratios are 61.55, 91.00 and 131.88. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and useless. The AEPS values for 2023 is expected to be negative. There is no valid testing for P/AEPS Ratios.
I guess a Graham Price of $2.32. It is a guess because of the number of years with earnings losses. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 1.03 and 1.34. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.73 based on a stock price of $8.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. This testing is done is CDN$. A P/GP Ratio of 3.73 is a very high ratio.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.78 based on a Book Value of $1,385M, Book Value per Share of $2.40 and a stock price of $6.67. The current ratio is 59% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in US$, but you will get a similar result in CDN$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.10. The current P/CF Ratio is 37.06 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $0.18, Cash Flow of $104M and a stock price of $6.67. The current is 422% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in US$, but you will get a similar result in CDN$.
This stock has no dividends, so I cannot do any dividend yield testing.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.92. The current P/S Ratio is 4.03 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $954M, Revenue per Share of $1.66 and a stock price of $6.67. The current ratio is 38% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is done in US$, but you will get a similar result in CDN$. The problem is declining Revenue.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. This is showing by the P/S Ratio test. Also, the P/B Ratio and P/CF Ratio tests, which are good clean test, are also showing that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), Hold (4) and Sell (3). The consensus is Underperform. Analysts seem to have no enthusiasm for this stock. The 12 month stock price consensus is $7.76 CDN$ ($6.04 US$). This implies a total loss of 10.04% with all the loss from a capital loss.
The analysts’ recommendations for 2020 on Stock Chase are all Do Not Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Karen Thomas Motley Fool thinks this stock is current a very attractive bargain. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool thinks this company will benefit from high spending on cybersecurity. The company reports on Newswire their fourth quarter results. The company reports on Newswire their first quarter of 2023 results.
Simply Wall Street reviews this stock on Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street gives two warning signs for this company of currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. Insiders are not selling; it looks like they are when they do not pick up all their stock options.
BlackBerry Ltd, once known for being the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, is now exclusively a software provider with a stated goal of end-to-end secure communication for enterprises. Its web site is here BlackBerry Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF) ... learn more on Monday, August 8, 2022 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
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