Friday, May 29, 2009

Stock Market as Non-Zero Sum System

Our economy is considered a market economy. We are not the only ones to have a market economy. Most people to not seem to know that during most of its life China had a market economy. However, it never produced capitalism. In a zero-sum system, there is a winner for every loser. In a non-zero sum system, everyone can win, or conversely, everyone can lose.

If you take a look at our stock market, you will see that it is a non-zero sum system. When the total value of the stock go up, everyone can potentially win and when the total value of the stocks go down, everyone can potentially lose. This is not really, what happens, as there are relative winners and losers when the stock market goes up or goes down.

We, in English speaking countries, tend to think of capitalism as being Anglo-Saxon. However, it really started in Venice, moved to Holland, before hitting England. Niall Ferguson has recently written a couple of financial books that are really worth while reading on the subject of money and finance. He is a favorite author of mine. His recent books are “The Ascent of Money” and “The Cash Nexus”.

I know that a lot of people are concerned about our stock market at this present time. However, what is happening is not a lot different that has happened in the past. I have been investing since the 70’s and market has taken a lot of twists and turns. To get a better perspective, you could look at stock market charts. My favorite is at MSN Money. Here you can get historical charts of the US and Canadian markets. To get the TSX, use the code “$CA:OSPTX and the get the Dow Jones use code $DJI. When looking at charts such as these, it is a good idea to use the Chart Scale of Log Base 2 or Log Base 10.

If you look at these charts, you will see that that there were considerable problems in the 1970’s and from mid 1980’s to mid 1990’s. For Canadian’s the TSX chart only goes back to 1979. However, if you look at the chart you will see that the TSX hit around 4,000 in 1987 and did not finally leave this level until 1995. Looking at such charts can put what the market is going through in perspective.

I still plan to buy and hold stocks and I mark progress, not only in the value of my portfolio, but also in the amount of dividends I get. Though out this recent market, I my dividend income has steadily increased. This is exactly what has happened before in difficult markets.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

AltaGas Income Trust 2

AltaGas Income Trust 2
I am continuing my review of this stock (TSX-ALA.UN) today to see if the current price is good and what the analyst are saying about it. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, and the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices).

As usual, I am first looking at Insider Buying and Selling. The first thing to note is that there is lots of insider buying which equals almost 2% of the value of the current shares. The CEO’s, CFO’s and Directors’ holdings of shares have gone up. However, the other Officers’ shares went down in December/February time frame. The current buying by insiders is certainly showing that insiders have faith in this stock. So, this is a good indicator.

Looking at spreadsheet ratios, I find that the yield at 13.5% is higher than the 5 year average of 8%. The P/E ratio at 10 is at the 5 year average low. This is lower than the 5 year average on the closing price of 13.6. The P/E for the end of 2008 was just 7.3. The current ratio depend on what the earnings estimates are and if they are lower than what the real earnings turn out to be, then the current P/E estimate could show higher than they actually are.

The Price/Book Value ratio at the end of 2008 was 1.29 and this is only 70% of the 10 year average of 1.85. Because of the lower stock price, the current P/BV is even lower at 1.19. This, like the yield is a firmer indicator of a good price than the P/E ratio is. This is because the P/E is based on estimate earnings, and like all estimates, could be wrong. The other good indicator is that the current stock price is some 25% lower than the Graham Price and this is also a good indicator.

There are lots of Buy ratings on this stock, and a few Strong Buys and some Holds. This means that the consensus rating would be a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) I can find no other analysts ratings on this stock. Also, the Globe Investor site rates this stock 4 stars out of a possible 5 stars. The stability ratings on this income trust are-3/STA and 3M. These ratings are from 1 to 7 with 1 being for the most stable income trusts.

When looking at the charts, this stock is considered to be part of the Energy Trust Index. For the last 1 and 3 years, this stock has done better than the Energy Trust Index and worse than the TSX Index. For longer periods, it has worse than both these indexes. However, note that these indexes doe not take into consideration distributions. Since the distribution on this stock is high, it would have done better than the charts comparing it to the TSX would show.

In concluding, I would like to point out the problems that I see on this stock from yesterday. The first is that the Accrual Ratio is very high. The other thing is that the increase in dividends over the last 5 and 10 years would not be indicative of what the future holds. Since this is an income trust, it will change back to a corporation, and this will affect the distributions or dividends paid on this stock. Even if they maintain the current dividend, this means that you could go for a number of years without any dividend increases. You might also want to see the comments put on yesterday's entry for this stock.

AltaGas operates physical assets and provides essential services to customers who produce and consume natural gas and power. Their gas business provides gathering, processing, transportation, storage and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids. Their power business generates and delivers power in Alberta and British Columbia and is developing a significant portfolio of renewable power projects. Its web site is www.altagas.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ala.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

AltaGas Income Trust

I am reviewing this stock (TSX-ALA.UN) today as it is on my dividend lists and I was looking for something to buy. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, and the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices). These list show stocks that have had great dividend increases over the last little while. The 5 year average for this stock is 41% annually.

However, there was a huge dividend increase when this stock became an Income Trust in 2004. The last 3 year dividend increases averages just under 3%. I do not know what the increase will be for 2009 as they generally do their increases in August each year. Because of the increase last year, so far there will 1.7% more dividends this year than last.

The other thing on this stock is that the company has not declared what will happen to the dividend when they switch back to a corporation. Some companies could cut their dividends. Others might keep their dividend at the same amount for the next few years. However, the current yield is above 13%, so you can make some good dividend income currently and in the new few years.

This stock has had good growth in Revenues, Earnings, Dividends, and Stock Prices, over the last 5 and 10 years. The growth in Cash Flow and Book Value has also not been bad. The one thing to mention in the revenue growth is that although the revenue has grown well, the revenue per unit has actually declined for both the last 5 and 10 year periods.

This stock has a fairly strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.12 and the Asset/Liability ratio is 1.79. The liquidity ratio means that the current assets can cover the current liabilities. The Return on Equity (ROE) has been holding up quite well. The ROE for 2008 was 17% and this is slightly lower than the 5 year average of 18%. The Accrual Ratio is a bit worrisome at 18%. One of the interpretations of high accrual ratios is that the earnings can be lacking in quality.

I have taken a small position in this stock. Now I plan to wait and see how things go with this stock.

AltaGas operates physical assets and provides essential services to customers who produce and consume natural gas and power. Their gas business provides gathering, processing, transportation, storage and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids. Their power business generates and delivers power in Alberta and British Columbia and is developing a significant portfolio of renewable power projects. Its web site is www.altagas.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ala.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Toromont Industries Ltd 2

I am continuing my review this stock (TSX-TIH) today because of its annual report for 2008. I have also updated my spreadsheet today as I noted that the quarterly report is in. Toromont has made progress as the Revenues, Earnings and Book Value are up from last year. Stock price is down marginally from yesterday.

This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, and the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and was also on Mike Higgs’ list. (Note that Mike Higgs’ has discontinued his list.)

The first thing I look at is Insider Buying and Selling. There is some Insider Selling, but this seems to be connected with options. Insider ownership of shares have not changed much over the past year, in fact share holdings seemed to have increased slightly. This report does not seem to tell us anything at this time.

The next thing to look at is the ratios and the Graham Price to see if these indicators show if this stock is presently a good buy or not. The stock is selling near, but slightly above the Graham Price. This does point to a good buy price. Also, the current yield is 2.6% compared to a 5 year average 1.7%. The P/E ratios are, of course, dependent on the earnings estimates. The P/E at the end of 2008 was only 11. The current one is 12 to 13. This is a nice low P/E as the 5 year low P/E ratio is 13. The P/E 5 year average on the closing price is 16.

I also looked at the Price to Book Value and this ratio is at 1.9. This is substantially lower than the 10 year average of 2.5 or the 5 year average of 2.8. The currently P/BV is about 75% of the 10 year average and anything lower than 80% of the 10 year average is showing a good stock price for buying.

There are quite a few analysts following this stock. Their ratings seem to be either a Buy or a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) No one says anything bad about the company, and most with the Hold rating feel that the current recession will still affect the company, at least in the short term. Even though this is a dividend paying company, it is still an industrial company and there are therefore risks in buying it, especially in the short term.

When I look at the charts, I see that this company has done better than the TSX and the Industrial Index over periods of 1 year and longer. It is only in a shorter time frame that the TSX index has done better, but this stock as done as well as the Industrial Index in these shorter time periods. I still expect to make money on this stock in the long term and I intend to hold the shares that I have.

There are two sections to this company. The Equipment Group is for Caterpillar dealerships. The Compression Group designs, engineers, fabricates and installs compression systems for natural gas, fuel gas and carbon dioxide. This last group also has industrial and recreational refrigeration systems. Its web site is www.toromont.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tih.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Monday, May 25, 2009

Toromont Industries Ltd

I am reviewing this stock (TSX-TIH) today as I have received its annual report for 2008. I starting buying this stock at the end of 2007 and bought some more in 2008. To date I have lost some 8% per year on this stock. I do not intend to buy any more as I have enough of it. I, of course, expect to make money on this stock over the long term.

This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, and the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and was also on Mike Higgs’ list. (Note that Mike Higgs’ has discontinued his list.) There are good reasons for this to be on dividend paying lists because it has raised it dividend some 21% annually over the past 5 years and 16% annually over the past 10 years. For the current year, it has only raised its dividend by 7%. There were other such lower dividend raises in the past and you can see this if you look at raises each year over the past 10 years.

This stock has had great growth in Revenues, Earnings, Dividends, Stock Prices, Cash Flow and Book Value over the last 5 and 10 years. That is for all growth measurements, this stock has had good growth. However, for all these growth measurements, the grow rates have slowed down for 2008 or is expected to slow for 2009. This is hardly surprising, as we are in a recession.

This stock has a strong balance sheet. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.90 and the Asset/Liability ratio is 2.03. These are both great figures. The Return on Equity (ROE) has been holding up quite well. The ROE for 2008 was 18% and this is slightly higher than the 5 year average of 17.7%. The Accrual Ratio is not significant at .51%.

As I said earlier, I expect to make money on this stock in the long term and I intend to hold on to what I have.

There are two sections to this company. The Equipment Group is for Caterpillar dealerships. The Compression Group designs, engineers, fabricates and installs compression systems for natural gas, fuel gas and carbon dioxide. This last group also has industrial and recreational refrigeration systems. Its web site is www.toromont.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/tih.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Power Corp 2

I am continuing my review of this stock (TSX-POW) today as I have updated my spreadsheet because of its 2008 annual report. I do not own this stock, as I have Power Financial Corp stock. This stock is on everyone lists. It is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, and the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and also on Mike Higgs’ list. Please note that Mike Higgs’ has discontinued his list.

What worries me currently about this stock is the large amount of insider selling with almost no insider buying. There has been an awful lot of insider selling since the end of February this year. The vast amount of this selling is by officers of the company, and there were a number of them selling. This has to make you wonder what they know that others do not. Of course, the problem with insider selling is that it is hard to know why people are selling.

When you look at analysts’ recommendations, they run the gamut from Strong Buy to Hold. There are no other ratings that I can see. The consensus seems to be a Buy that is very close to a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)

I looked next at my spreadsheet to see if what the ratios are saying about the current price for this stock. First, I looked at the yield. The yield is currently about 4.8% and this is higher than the 5 year average of 2.7%. The current P/E of 9 is lower than the 5 year average of 13 and also lower than the 5 year average low of 11. Both of these ratios point to the price being relatively low.

The next thing I looked at is the Graham Price and the current stock price is substantially lower than the Graham Price. This points to the current stock price being a good entry point if you want to buy this stock. The last ratio that points to the current stock price being a good one is that the Price/Book Value ratio at 1.05 is quite a bit below the 5 year average of 1.75. On this stock, there is no ratio that does not point to the current stock price as being relatively low and at a good buying point.

In looking at the charts, the financials have not done as well as the TSX over any period of 5 years and less. You have to go out some 10 years to find the financials doing better than the TSX. This stock is no different. It has done as well as the financials over the last 5 years. It has not done as well as the TSX.

This stock has a great reputation as dividend paying stock. The dividends have traditionally been around 2% with a high rate of annual increases, especially in the last 10 years. Considering what the market has been like lately, the stock plus dividends has eked out a 5 year return of almost 2%. This, of course, will go up with the stock market recovery. It is no wonder this stock is on so many lists as a good dividend paying stock.

This company is an international management and holding company. It has as subsidiaries Power Financial Corp., Power Technology Investment Corp. and Gesca Ltee. Subsidiaries of Power Financial include Great-West Lifeco, IGM Financial, London Insurance Group, Canada Life Financial, Putnam Invest., LLC Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation, and its affiliate Pargesa Holding SA. Its web site is www.powercorporation.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/pow.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Power Corp

I am reviewing this stock (TSX-POW) today as I have updated my spreadsheet because of its 2008 annual report. I do not own this stock, as I have Power Financial Corp stock. This stock is on everyone lists. It is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, and the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and also on Mike Higgs’ list. Please note that Mike Higgs’ has discontinued his list.

This stock has had great growth in Revenues, Dividends, Cash Flow and Book Value over the last 5 and 10 years. There is a good reason for this stock being on everyone list as it is a good dividend payer. The dividend growth for the last 5 and 10 years is around 18% for both periods. The yield also is not bad at around 2%. If you had held this stock for the 5 or 10 years to 2008, yield on initial investment would be around 5.3% and 7.5% respectively.

The earnings and the stock price fell quite substantially in 2008. After the earnings came in lower for the year ending in December 2008, earnings for 2009 were revised down. However, most analysts expect the earnings will rise again in 2010. The earning and stock price hit are not surprising given that we are in a recession.

As far as the Asset/Liability Ratio goes, it is rather low at 1.20. However, this company is mostly financial and this ratio is lower for financial companies and banks. This company did not have a great year for Return on Equity either as this came in at only 7%. However, the 5 year average was 13% and this company has usually managed a ROE around 15% in the past. The other thing to look at is the Accrual Ratio and this is not bad at .05%.

As I have said, I can see why this stock is on everyone list. It pays good dividends and it has steadily increased the value of the company. You can see this reflected in the growth over time of the Graham Price. I am going on a road trip tomorrow, so I will not be publishing my blog, but on Friday, I will take a look at what the analysts are saying about this stock currently.

This company is an international management and holding company. It has as subsidiaries Power Financial Corp., Power Technology Investment Corp. and Gesca Ltee. Subsidiaries of Power Financial include Great-West Lifeco, IGM Financial, London Insurance Group, Canada Life Financial, Putnam Invest., LLC Investors Group, Mackenzie Financial Corporation, and its affiliate Pargesa Holding SA. Its web site is www.powercorporation.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/pow.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Ensign Energy Services 2

I am continuing my review this stock (TSX-ESI) today from last Friday. This stock is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, and the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices). As usual, I am first checking on Insider Buying and Selling. What I have found is a very small amount of insider buying spread over the past year. This does not seem to materially change the holdings of insiders.

The next thing I looked into was the yield. The current yield of 2.2% is above the average 5 year yield on the closing price (1.6%) and the average High/Low stock price (1.4%). This is positive buying signal. It is perhaps better than the P/E ratio, as the current P/E ratio really depends on what the earnings for this year come in at, and there is a wide spread in what analyst feel the earnings will be for this year. However, the current P/E at about 13 is not bad.

The other good ratio to look at is the Price/Book Value ratio. This ratio at 1.5 is considerably below the 10 year average of 2.8. This is also a good indicator to use, as it also does not depend on what the earnings estimates are for this stock in 2009. The last thing I am looking at as far as buy/sell signals go is the Graham Price. It shows that the stock price is a good one. Depending on what you think the earnings will be; the stock price is at or below the Graham Price.

In looking what the analysts’ recommendations are, I see that there are a few Strong Buys and Buys, but most of the recommendations are a Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) This company is dependent on the oil and gas industry and it is felt there will be less activity and therefore less call for the services to these industries over the next while.

As far as I can see, this is a great little company, and I can see why it is on the dividend achievers’ type lists as they have a habit of increasing their dividends on a regular basis over the last 5 and 10 years.

With headquarters in Calgary, Alberta, Ensign is an industry leader in the delivery of oilfield services worldwide to the oil and gas industry. They operate in North and South American, Middle East, South East Asia, Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Its web site is www.ensignenergy.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/esi.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Ensign Energy Services

I am reviewing this stock (TSX-ESI) today as it is on the two dividend paying Canadian stock lists that I following. It is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, and the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices).

For all the figures I follow, Revenue, Earnings, Stock Price, Book Value and Cash Flow, this stock has had great growth over the past 5 and 10 years. The only not so great growth is in the last 5 years for the stock price. For example, the Revenues have grown 12% over the last 5 years, while the earnings have grown 21%. The stock growth for the last 5 years is just over 5%, but this is not bad considering the current market.

I can see why this stock is on the dividend achievers type lists as the dividends have grown some 16% over the last 10 years and 23% over the last 5 years. Although I must admit that, the dividend yield is often below 1% for this stock. It is currently just over 2%, but this is because of the lower price of the stock in the current market.

The balance sheet on this stock is not bad as the Liquidity Ratio is 1.26 and the Asset/Liability Ratio is 3.34. This last figure is especially good. When you look at the Return on Equity (ROE), this is also very good with the 5 year average of 21% and the end of 2008 at 14%.

The only negative I find on this stock is that the Accrual Ratio is rather high at 6%. No stock is, of course, perfect. This stock quite often has very high Accrual Ratios. This might call into question the quality of the earnings figures. However, as I said above, this stock is a good earner and good dividend payer and money can probably be made with this stock. However, it is in the energy business and is, of course, of a high risk nature. Tomorrow I will review what the analysts are saying on this stock.

With headquarters in Calgary, Alberta, Ensign is an industry leader in the delivery of oilfield services worldwide to the oil and gas industry. They operate in North and South American, Middle East, South East Asia, Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Its web site is www.ensignenergy.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/esi.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

EnCana Corp 2

I am continuing my review on this stock (TSX-CNR) today. I bought it to help me keep track of Canada’s resource stock. After all, resource stocks are a large part of the TSX. This is a large and well respected Canadian Oil company that is widely owned and traded, not only on the TSX, but also on the NYSE. The NYSE symbol is also ECA.

First, I looked at Insider Selling and Buying. There is net selling of some 9m of this stock, which is .02% of the outstanding shares of this stock. It all seems to be mostly options, but the outstanding share held by directors has decreased somewhat over the last year.

The current yield at just over 3% is greater than the 5 year average 1.3% and is also higher than it has been for some time. If you look at the P/E current at 5.9%, it is lower than even the 5 year low average of 7.3 and of course, lower than the 5 year average on close of 9.8. However, if earnings are going to drop as expected by all the analysts I look at, then the P/E ratio will climb higher.

When you look the Graham Price, you get the same thing. The Graham Price is influence by the book value and the earnings. If the earnings drop off considerably, then the Graham Price will also fall. Currently, the Graham price is some 37% higher than the stock price. However, if the earnings fall as expected, then the stock price will be very close the Graham Price. This will still make this stock price a good price, because the Graham Price, is considered a good price.

There are a number of analysts following this stock. Ratings are from Strong Buy to Hold, with the consensus rating being a Buy. There are no ratings lower than a Hold that I can find. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) If you look at the estimates, there is a big range when it comes to earnings and a much smaller range for Cash Flow.

When looking at the charts, once you get beyond three years, this company has done much better than the TSX and the Energy Index. On charts for shorter periods than 1 year, this company has done as well as the TSX and better than the Energy Index.

As I said yesterday, I intend to hold this stock for now. However, I just have 100 shares, so this will not affect my portfolio at all, no matter what it does. It will help me keep an eye on energy stocks.

This company is involved in the acquisition, exploration and development of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. It is a merger of Alberta Energy Company Ltd. (AEC) and PanCanadian Energy Corporation (PanCanadian) companies. It is a world-class independent oil and gas company. Its web site is www.encana.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/eca.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

EnCana Corp

I am reviewing this stock (TSX-CNR) today as I have received its annual report for 2008. I bought this stock in 2006 and I have earned a return of almost 10% per year on it. This includes dividends received, a price ending at today’s date. I had owned this stock previous from 2000 to 2002 and then I earned some 18% per year return. I usually only buy 100 shares of this stock as it is an oil company and I do no usually buy resource companies of any kind. However, since I live and invest in Canada, I do like to keep trace of what resources are doing. I find the best way to do this is to own some resource stock.

This stock reports in US$ and it has generally done better in US$ than in CDN$. For all the figures I follow, Revenue, Earnings, Stock Price, Book Value and Cash Flow, this stock has had great growth over the past 5 and 10 years. Certainly, the growth in Revenue and Earnings has been very large. I have only had this stock since 2006 this time and the growth over than last few years was not as good as from 2003 to 2006.

This company certainly has a strong balance sheet. Both the Liquidity Ratio and the Asset/Liability Ratio are good. With the Liquidity Ratio at 1.44, there are enough current assets to cover current liabilities; however, I usually like to see that ratio at bit higher at 1.50. The Asset/Liability Ratios is certainly very strong at 1.95.

When we move on to the Return of Equity (ROE), we find that the 5 year average is 24% and the one for the calendar year of 2008 is over 25%. Both these ROE figures are very good indeed. The only ratio I track that is not good is the Accrual Ratio and this is quite high at almost 10%. A high Accrual Ratio can show that the earnings are a lower quality and that they might be bulked up by non-cash items.

This is a large and well respected Canadian Oil company that is widely owned and traded, not only on the TSX, but also on the NYSE. The NYSE symbol is also ECA. I intend to keep this stock for now, but since I only have 100 shares, it is a very small part of my portfolio.

This company is involved in the acquisition, exploration and development of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. It is a merger of Alberta Energy Company Ltd. (AEC) and PanCanadian Energy Corporation (PanCanadian) companies. It is a world-class independent oil and gas company. Its web site is www.encana.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/eca.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Canada Bread 2

I am continuing my review on this stock (TSX-CBY) today from yesterday. I have held this stock in the past and I decided to review it now as I read a favorable review of this stock as a good dividend paying stock to invest in. I have continued to follow the stock, but have no current plans to invest in it.

I first looked at Insider Buying and Selling. There is no activity at all. I took at look at the volume of stocks that are traded and it would appear that there is a few hundred traded each day. Some days, the volume has spiked to over 500 and occasionally to over 1,000. So volume is small. Do not forget that this stock is almost 90% owned by Maple Leaf. Also, few analysts follow this stock.

If you look at the spreadsheet, this stock is trading at a higher yield (at .63%) and the 5 year average of .55%. However, I do not find this yield very attractive as it is so low. The P/E ratio is currently low on this stock at 10. This is lower than the 5 year average of 20 and also lower than the 5 year low average of 15. Also, this stock is trading at 20% below its Graham Price. If you look at P/BV, you will see that the current ratio is about .88% of the 10 year average. All the above ratios point to this stock being at a very good buy price.

The next thing to mention is that Globe Investor gives this stock a 3 star rating out of a possible 5 stars. As I said above there are few analyst following this stock. There seems to be a couple of Buy Rating on this stock and a Hold Rating, for a consensus of Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)

It would appear that you could make some money on this stock if you buy it for growth. It will not appeal to me unless they start to raise their dividends. We are in uncertain times. What if we are in a secular bear market and this bear market still has time to run? I personally would prefer to wait this out with dividend paying stocks that increase their dividends regularly. If we are in a secular bear market, strong dividends will be the only thing that counts in a buy and hold strategy.

Canada Bread is a leading manufacturer and marketer of value-added flour based products, including fresh bread, rolls, bagels and sweet goods, frozen partially baked or par-baked breads and bagels, and specialty pasta and sauces. The Company markets products under a number of leading brand names, including Dempster’s, Olafson’s, POM, Ben’s and Olivieri. Canada Bread has operations in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. Its web site is www.canadabread.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cby.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Canada Bread

I am reviewing this stock (TSX-CBY) as I read a favorable review of this stock as a good dividend paying stock to invest in. This stock has come up a number of times in favorable reviews. It is a stock on the Investment Reporter list. It is not on the other three lists that I follow. I do not own this stock. I held it once in the past from 1999 to 2000, but sold as I thought it was going nowhere. One thing that has occurred since I owned this stock is that it merged with Maple Leaf’s baking division and now Maple Leaf owns 89.8% of Canada Bread.

In looking at the growth figures I am interested in, the thing that struck me was that the dividend does not increase. I tracked it back to 1994 and it was still $.24 a share, which is the same it is today. Other growth figures that have been good are that in Earnings, Stock Price, Book Value and Cash Flow. The growth in Revenue is also not bad, but the 5 year figure is not great.

If you look at the Liquidity ratio, it is low at .64. This means that the current assets cannot cover the current Liabilities. However, the Asset/Liability Ratio is very good at 3.47. The Return on Equity (ROE) is also quite good for this stock with 2008 being 9.2% and the 5 year average at 11.6%. The accrual ratio is not bad at 2.9%.

All in all this looks like a nice stock, however, I would not personally be interested in it, as the dividends do not increase. Tomorrow, I will look at how the analysts view this stock.

Canada Bread is a leading manufacturer and marketer of value-added flour based products, including fresh bread, rolls, bagels and sweet goods, frozen partially baked or par-baked breads and bagels, and specialty pasta and sauces. The Company markets products under a number of leading brand names, including Dempster’s, Olafson’s, POM, Ben’s and Olivieri. Canada Bread has operations in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. Its web site is www.canadabread.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cby.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Canadian National Railway 2

I am continuing my reviewing this stock (TSX-CNR) today. I consider this stock one of my backbone stocks for my portfolio and it is on all the lists of good dividend paying stocks that I follow. First, I looked at Insider Selling and Insider Buying. What I found was lots of Insider Selling. This selling appeared to be all in options. At some $23 million net selling, this represents about .1% of the shares outstanding for this stock. I do not think that this tells us anything. There is some buying of shares under the Company’s Plan to allow staff to buy shares.

The current yield at just over 2% is above the 5 year average of 1.5%. The current P/E at 13.3 is below the 5 year average of 13.8, but the 5 year average low is 11.5. So the P/E is at a reasonable level, but it is not showing this price as being a great buy. The dividend yield is probably a better indicator, as earnings are currently depressed in our economic recession. Also, this stock price is just around the Graham Price. This is also a good indicator showing the current price is very reasonable.

There are lots of analysts that follow this stock. Looking at analyst recommendations, there are lots of Strong Buys, Buys and Holds on this stock. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)

When looking at the charts, this stock has done better than the TSX and the Industrials Index for all periods over 1 year. For the YTD period and the 3 month and 6 months periods, it has done as well as both these indexes.

As I said yesterday, I own this stock and I have been happy with the return I have received, both in dividends and in the increase in value in this stock. I will continue to own this stock.

They have railways lines that cross the North American continent and serve ports on the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf coasts. They link customers to all three NAFTA nations. Its web site is www.cn.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cnr.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Canadian National Railway

I am reviewing this stock (TSX-CNR) today as I have received its annual report. I bought this stock in 2005 and I have earned a return of just over 10% per year on it. This includes dividends received, a price ending at the end of March 2009 and another purchase on this stock at the end of January 2009 this year.

This stock has great growth in earnings, dividends and the stock price over the last 5 and 10 years. The growth in book value is not bad, and there is a lower growth in the revenues and cash flow. This stock has grown the dividends at the rate of 22% and 18% for the last 5 and 10 years. If you look at the spreadsheet, you will see this great growth until 2008 and from 2008 to date growth has slowed to just under 10%.

Since I looked at this stock when I updated my spreadsheet initially in connection with the 2008 annual report, the stock price has moved from slightly below the Graham Price to above the Graham Price. The TSX has been steadily gaining since it crashed in March 2009. So it is no surprise that this stock has moved up. If you look at the Liquidity Ratio, it is rather low at .93. This means that current assets do not quite cover current liabilities. However, the Asset/Liability Ratio at 1.65 is strong. Looking at the Return on Equity (ROE) Ratio is quite nice at 18% for both 2008 and the 5 year average. The last thing to look at is the Accrual Ratio and it is rather high. This could point to earnings being from non cash items (or accruals) and therefore of a lesser quality.

By and large, I am quite happy with this stock and I am glad I have bought it. This is a stock that is on everyone’s lists. It is on the Dividend Achievers list at www.dividendachievers.com, the Dividend Aristocrats list at www.tmxmoney.com/en/individual.html (see indices) and also on Mike Higgs’ list at www.dividendgrowth.org/Report.htm.

They have railways lines that cross the North American continent and serve ports on the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf coasts. They link customers to all three NAFTA nations. Its web site is www.cn.ca. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/cnr.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Investor or Speculator

If you decide to buy stocks in a stock market, one of the important questions to ask yourself is what do you want to be? An investor or a speculator? If you want to be an investor, you are more focused on what your stock is earning you. You want stocks that at the least raise their dividend by the amount of inflation. A lot of good dividend paying stocks raise their dividend much more than the amount of inflation. These are the best sort of stocks to own.

We are currently in a bear market. Whether this is a secular bear market or a cyclical bear markets, I do not know. We could be pulling out of a cyclical bear market, or we could not be. There are lots of people that think we are in a secular bear market. They basically think that it started in 2000 and still has a number of years to run. This is like what happened in the 1970’s (1966-1982). If this is true, it might last until 2012-2014.

What has happened to my stock when we have had bear markets in the past? Whenever the market has fallen in the past, my yields have just gone up. Plus, the stocks I have bought have mostly increased their dividends over time. Since our current stock market troubles have started, I have had a couple of stocks decrease or cut their dividends, but most have done what they have done before. That is, increase their dividends. This means that I have continued to earn higher and higher dividends.

There are always cyclical bull markets within a secular bear market, so there will be times to sell. There will also be great times to buy. I am an investor, so I will continue to buy good dividend paying stocks and collect my dividends. I mostly focus on my dividends, and value my stocks and my progress with increases in dividends. I started investing in the 1970’s and there were companies then that paid dividends and increased their dividends on a regular basis.

So, what I am sayings is that I still think that the “buy and hold” method will still work. I just think that it all depends on what sort of stocks you “buy and hold”.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

MI Development 2

I am continuing my reviewing this stock (TSX-MIM.A) today. This stock is also on the NY stock Exchange (NYSE-MIM). First, I looked into Insider Buying and Selling. What I found was no activity over the past year at all. So this tells us nothing.

Next, I looked at the spreadsheet ratios to see if this is a good current buy or not. I calculated a P/E of just over 9% if this company earns what the estimates are for it. This is a relatively low P/E ratio. However, there is really no P/E ratio on this company to compare this with as this company has had a number of years of earnings losses. When looking at dividend yield, I see that it is just over 7% and this is better than the 5 year average of just under 3%.

When looking at the Graham price, this stock’s price is way below this price. MI Development has a high book value and this stock is being sold way under the book value. One of the problems with this book value is that it has not changed much over the last 9 years. In fact, the current book value is lower than what it was 9 years ago. This is a real estate company, so at the moment it is hard to know for sure how actuate this book value is. If you look at the book value in US$, you get a slight increase over 9 years, but not much of an increase.

When I look at the analysts recommendations, I find that few follow this stock. What I find is a one strong buy, a buy, and a hold. The consensus recommendation is a buy. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.) I also find that Globe Investor gives this company 2 stars rating, out of a possible 5 star rating. This company has been able to make some cash flow so that the dividend is increasing, but I do wonder about its long term growth prospects and if this is a good place to put my money.

This is a real estate company that currently owns, leases, manages and develops a predominantly industrial rental portfolio. Almost all of their income producing properties is leased to Magna and its subsidiaries. It also holds 53% equity and 95% voting interest in Magna Entertainment Corp (MEC.A). Frank Stronach has multiple voting shares in MIM.B (and controls some 76% of votes). Its web site is www.midevelopments.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mim.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Monday, May 4, 2009

MI Development

I am reviewing this stock (TSX-MIM.A) today as I have just received its annual report. I bought this stock in 2003, and so far, I have only lost money on it. This is not surprising as this is a real estate stock, and all real estate stocks have been hit hard my this market.

This stock is not on anyone list. I bought it as I was diversifying into some real estate stocks and I read a favorable report on this stock. I only bought 100 shares as I am just trying it out. I also admire Frank Stronach, but at the moment, I will not buy Magna, as I do not think that automobile companies are going anywhere in the near future. So, because Frank Stronach owns this company, I thought I would give it a try.

Usually, at this point, I talk about the figures that have grown. The only measure on this stock that has grown is the Funds from Operations (FFO) and this is sort of like the cash flow available to the company for such things as dividends. Therefore, the dividends paid by this company have also grown very nicely. There has been no growth, and in some cases a decline, in Revenue, Book Value and Earnings.

The Liquidity ratio for 2008 is low at .62. This means that current assets cannot cover current liability. However, the Asset/Liability Ratio at 2.68 is very good. There is no Return on Equity (ROE) to speak of as there is no net income (or profit). Since there are no earnings, we cannot calculate the Accrual Ratio.

At the moment, I am going to continue to hold my shares, but I might decide to sell them in the future, if I see that this company cannot earn any money. Tomorrow, I will look to see what the analysts are saying.

This is a real estate company that currently owns, leases, manages and develops a predominantly industrial rental portfolio. Almost all of their income producing properties is leased to Magna and its subsidiaries. It also holds 53% equity and 95% voting interest in Magna Entertainment Corp (MEC.A). Frank Stronach has multiple voting shares in MIM.B (and controls some 76% of votes). Its web site is www.midevelopments.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/mim.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.

Friday, May 1, 2009

CCL Industries 2

I am continuing my review on this stock (TSX-CCL.B) today. This is a dividend paying stock and it is on is on the Dividend Achievers list at Dividend Achievers. I do not own any of the stock of this company.

First, I am looking at the Insider Buying and Insider Selling and what I find is that over the past year there has been lots of Insider Selling, but no Insider Buying. However, there have been options granted recently that have not been sold. This could be a good sign.

Looking at the spreadsheet ratios, I find that the current yield is higher than the 5 year average and the current P/E is lower than the 5 year average. However, in both these cases, there is not a huge variance in the ratios and the 5 year averages. Currently, the Graham Price is some 30% higher than the stock price. However, the Graham Price fluctuates with the earnings, so this price has fluctuated a lot lately as the earnings have gone up and down significantly. However, the current price is still 10% lower than the latest lower Graham Price.

The next thing to mention is that Globe Investors site gives this company 3 stars out of a possible 5 stars. In looking at the analyst recommendations, there is the odd Buy, but most recommendations are currently at Hold and the consensus recommendation is Hold. (See my site for information on analyst ratings.)

When looking at the charts, I compared this stock to the TSX index and the sub-index of Industrials. This stock has done worse than both these indexes in the periods of YTD and 6 months. If you look at periods of 1 year or longer, this stock has done better than these indexes. The problem is that this stock has been hit harder by this recent bear market than the rest of the TSX stocks or other Industrials.

CCL Industries Inc. provides state-of-the-art specialty packaging solutions to some of the world’s largest producers of consumer brands in personal care, cosmetic, healthcare, household and specialty food and beverage products. CCL is the world’s largest supplier of innovative and secure labeling solutions to leading global companies in the consumer product and healthcare sectors and supplies aluminum containers and plastic tubes for major consumer brands of personal care, household products and specialty food and beverages. With headquarters in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, CCL Industries operates production facilities in North America, Europe, Latin America, Asia and Australia. Its web site is www.cclind.com. See my spreadsheet at www.spbrunner.com/stocks/ccl.htm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website at www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html for a list of the stocks for which I have put up spreadsheets.