Friday, February 7, 2025

Canadian National Railway

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median, but maybe cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Canadian National Railway.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I believe if you like a stock and would like to hold for a long period of time, the time to buy is when it is reasonable or cheap. In a portfolio, it is probably a good idea to have either this stock or Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd, but not both. I went with CNR personally. I think this is a stock to hold for the long term. Currently the price is reasonable. However, it might be cheap as the dividend yield tests are showing.

I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done well with this investment. I have had this stock since 2005 and made a second investment in 2009. I have a total return of $14.26% per year with 11.56% from capital gains and 2.70% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,040.26 you would have bought 13 shares at $80.02 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $293.80 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,897.61. Your total return would have been $2,191.41. This would be a total return of 8.25% per year with 6.20% from capital gain and 2.06% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$80.02 $1,040.26 13 10 $293.80 $1,897.61 $2,191.41

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.45%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.89%, 1.87% and 1.67%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% per year) at 9.5% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 5.03%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 48% with 5 year coverage at 40%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 48% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is too high at 69% with 5 year coverage at 52%. There is no agreement on what the FCF is, but they are relatively close.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 48.22% 40.81%
AEPS 47.61% 43.16%
CFPS 33.38% 29.39%
FCF 69.15% 52.62%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.22 and currently at 0.21. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is too low at 0.66 and 0.66 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.81 and currently at 1.81. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.58 and 1.58 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.71 and 1.71 and currently at 2.71 and 1.71.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.22 0.21
Intang/GW 0.01 0.00
Liquidity 0.66 0.66
Liq. + CF 1.81 1.81
Debt Ratio 1.58 1.58
Leverage 2.71 2.71
D/E Ratio 1.71 1.71

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 9.47% 6.64% 4.44% 2.20%
2014 10 12.95% 8.25% 6.20% 2.06%
2009 15 13.51% 13.92% 11.46% 2.46%
2004 20 15.33% 13.05% 10.88% 2.17%
1999 25 15.12% 15.73% 13.25% 2.47%
1996 28 15.05% 15.61% 13.24% 2.37%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.67, 21.28 and 24.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.92, 18.85 and 21.00. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.32, 14.67 and 17.34. The current P/E Ratio is 18.15 based on a stock price of $145.02 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $7.99. The current ratio us between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.80, 22.85 and 25.30. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.02, 20.34 and 22.54. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 18.06 based on a stock price of $145.02 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $8.03. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $77.83. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.75, 2.04 and 2.28. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.86 based on a stock price of $145.02. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.43. The current ratio is 4.33 based on a stock price of $145.02, Book Value of $21,051M and Book Value per Share of $33.53. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $32.72. This implies a ratio of 4.43 with a stock price of $145.02 and Book Value of $20,534M. This is the same ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.81. The current P/CF Ratio is 12.069 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $11.43, Cash Flow of $7,177M and a stock price of $145.02. The current ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.67%. The current dividend yield is 2.45% based on dividends of $3.31 and a stock price of $145.02. The current dividend yield is 47% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.83%. The current dividend yield is 2.45% based on dividends of $3.31 and a stock price of $145.02. The current dividend yield is 31% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.81. The current P/S Ratio is 5.06 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $17,979M, Revenue per Share of $28.63 and a stock price of $145.02. The current ratio is 13% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median, but maybe cheap. The dividend yield testing is saying that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio testing is saying it is reasonable, but below the median. All the rest of the testing is saying that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (9), Buy (8), Hold (14), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $167.90 with a high of $200.00 and low of $123.00. The consensus stock price of $167.90 implies a total return of 18.23% with 15.78% from capital gains and 2.45% from dividends.

The year starts off for Analysts on Stock Chase as a Buy and turns into Do Not Buy. Some analysts like CP better and some are worried about the US Tariffs. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool thinks this is the smartest dividend stock to buy for future dividend payouts. Tony Dong on Motley Fool like CNR better than CP as it does more business across Canada than into the US. The company put out a press release via Global Newswire about their results for the fourth quarter of 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They have one warning of has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Canadian National's railway spans Canada from coast to coast and extends through Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more on Monday, February 10, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Richelieu Hardware Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is testing as relatively cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It may have a low dividend yield, but the dividend increases have been good, so if you look at the current dividend and my original purchase in 2009, I am earning 10.87% yield. This is why I go for lower dividend yield but with good increases. The main worry of the analysts seems to be that they company overstocked after Covid. Some think that this will be solved soon. Operating Costs were higher in 2024 than in 2023. However, if you like this company for a long term investment, the time to buy is when it is relatively cheap or reasonable.

I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2009 because it was recommended by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2000, they are a rather small company and they did not increase dividends in 2009. This stock would be considered to be a dividend paying growth stock. In 2009, I thought I would add to what I had in this stock. This stock has been much recommended by MPL Communications.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done well on this stock, although stock price is down this year from last year. My total return if 14.15% with 12.35% from capital gains and 1.80% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,007.00 you would have bought 53 shares at $19.00 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $180.20 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,069.12. Your total return would have been $2,249.32. This would be a total return of 8.67% per year with 7.47% from capital gain and 1.21% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$19.00 $1,007.00 53 10 $180.20 $2,069.12 $2,249.32

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.47%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also low at 1.23%, 0.91% and 1.13%. The dividend growth is good (15% and above) at 18.8% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 2.2%. The was no increase last year. Increases can vary a lot.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 39% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 18% with 5 year coverage at 22%. (MS and Market Screener used to agree on FCF, but no longer, but they are not far off.)

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 39.22% 21.57%
CFPS 20.00% 14.29%
FCF 17.85% 21.86%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.00 and currently at 0.00. They have no long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 3.12 and 3.12 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 3.00 and 3.00 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.50 and 0.50 and currently at 1.50 and 0.50.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.00 0.00
Intang/GW 0.09 0.09
Liquidity 3.12 3.12
Liq. + CF 3.47 3.47
Debt Ratio 3.00 3.00
Leverage 1.50 1.50
D/E Ratio 0.50 0.50

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 18.83% 8.95% 7.55% 1.40%
2014 10 12.39% 8.67% 7.47% 1.21%
2009 15 12.20% 13.17% 11.63% 1.54%
2004 20 12.86% 9.92% 8.73% 1.19%
1999 25 13.55% 14.66% 13.01% 1.65%
1994 30 15.83% 14.29% 1.54%
1993 31 15.14% 13.75% 1.39%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.99, 20.19 and 23.08. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.37, 21.06 and 25.20. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.06, 15.80 and 18.32. The current P/E Ratio is 21.40 based on a stock price of $39.59 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $1.85. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $26.12. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.43, 1.72 and 2.04. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.52 based on a stock price of $39.59. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.19. The current P/B Ratio is 2.42 based on a stock price of $39.59, Book Value of $905M and Book Value per Share of $16.39. The current ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $17.67. This implies a ratio of 2.24 based on a stock price of $39.59 and Book Value of $976M. This ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 19.27. The current P/CF Ratio is 16.37 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $133.6M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.42 and a stock price of $39.59. The current ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.13%. The current dividend yield is 1.55% based on dividends of $0.613 and a stock price of $39.59. The current dividend yield is 37% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.91%. The current dividend yield is 1.55% based on dividends of $0.613 and a stock price of $39.59. The current dividend yield is 71% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.51. The current ratio is 1.11 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $1,966M, Revenue per Share of $35.60 and a stock price of $39.59. The current ratio is 27% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is testing as relatively cheap. The dividend yield tests show that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Other testing is showing the stock price from relatively cheap to relatively reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $43.25 with a high of $44.50 and low of $42.00. The price consensus of $43.25 implies a total return of 10.79% with 9.24% from capital gains and 1.55% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase have different views on this stock. However, all mention that they have excess stocks which they must deal with. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says that they the stock price recently jumped. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool said in 2023 that this stock was a hidden gem. The company put out a press release via Newswire about the company’s fourth quarter of 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock’s dividends and its payment. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5. They list no risks.

Richelieu Hardware Ltd is a Canada-based company that imports, manufactures, and distributes specialty hardware and complementary products. Headquartered in Montreal, the company operates across Canada and the eastern and midwestern regions of the United States. The majority of the company's sales are derived from its operations in Canada. Its web site is here Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was EQB Inc (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more on Friday, February7, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy February 2025.... learn more on Thursday, February 6, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Putin’s People by Catherine Belton learn more...

Monday, February 3, 2025

EQB Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that the stock price could be reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on EQB Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This bank has done well for investors since it was started some 21 years ago. Currently, analysts expect another good year for this bank. It is on the Money Sense Dividend list. Since this is a small bank, caution is advised. The dividend yield and P/S Ratio testing is saying that the stock price is currently reasonable. Part of the reason for the dividend yield testing reasonable is that the dividends are growing faster than the stock price.

I do not own this stock of EQB Inc (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF). I had read a glowing report on investing on this company in 2013, so I decided to check it out. It was interesting as it was loaning money to new immigrants, a class of people who generally have a difficult time getting loans and mortgages from our regular banks. It sounded intriguing.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this bank changed its financial year end to October. This is why I am reviewing so soon again after I did a review in October 2024. In the beginning of the year, I have to start with companies with financial year ending in September, October, and November as most companies with December financial year end take at least a month to put out their new financial statements.

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.87%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.82%, 1.67% and 1.60%. The dividend growth has been good (15% and higher) with grow at 23% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 4.3%. However, this bank has been raising the dividends several times during each year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 17% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 16% with 5 year coverage at 12%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 6%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 17% with 5 year coverage at 11%.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 17.21% 13.14%
AEPS 15.78% 12.44%
CFPS 9.84% 6.26%
FCF 16.90% 10.72%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is fine at 12.68 and currently at 11.94. However, we need also to look at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2024 which is good at 0.92 and currently at 0.90 because this is a more important one for a Financial. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 3.12 and 2.65 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is fine for a bank at 1.06 and 1.06 currently. The Bank Leverage 5.3% and this is good.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term A 0.92 0.90
Lg Term R 12.68 11.94
Intang/GW 0.08 0.03
Liquidity 3.12 2.65
Liq. + CF 2.76 2.76
Debt Ratio 1.06 1.06
Bk Leverage 5.3% 5.3%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 23.32% 14.98% 13.52% 1.45%
2014 10 18.09% 13.84% 12.57% 1.27%
2009 15 15.51% 18.52% 16.87% 1.64%
2004 20 10.41% 14.13% 12.81% 1.32%
2003 21 12.25% 11.16% 1.09%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.42, 7.43 and 9.44. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.43, 6.74 and 8.98. The corresponding historical ratios are 5.49, 6.93 and 9.19. The current P/E Ratio is 8.85 based on a stock price of $104.97 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $11.86. This ratio is between the median and high ratio 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.00, 7.06, 9.28. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 5.09, 6.90 and 8.57. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 8.70 based on a stock price of $104.97 and AEPS for 2025 of $12.07. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $147.11. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.40, 0.54 and 0.69. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.71 based on a stock price of $104.97. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.99. The current P/B Ratio is 1.32 based on a Book Value of $3,128M, Book Value per Share of $81.35 and stock price of $104.97. The current ratio is 33% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $87.50. This implies a ratio of 1.20 based on a stock price of $104.97 and a Book Value of $3,364M. This ratio is 21% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.47. However, the Cash Flow for the last 12 months is negative, so I cannot do any P/CF Ratio testing.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.60%. The current dividend yield is 1.87% based on dividends of $1.96 and a stock price of $104.97. The current dividend yield is 11% above the historical median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.67%. The current dividend yield is 1.87% based on dividends of $1.96 and a stock price of $104.97. The current dividend yield is 17% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.19. The current P/S Ratio is 3.14 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $1287M, Revenue per Share of $33.47 and a stock price of $104.97. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that the stock price could be reasonable. The dividend yield tests show that the stock price is relatively reasonable. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio testing. However, I do note that a number of tests are showing the stock price as relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (4), Hold (3). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $123.70 with a high of $153.00 and low of $109.00. The stock price consensus price of $123.70 implies a total return of 19.23% with 17.37% from capital gains and 1.87% from dividends.

There are 3 analysts remarks on Stock Chase for this stock in 2025. All are buys. The company is liked, but its small size is noted. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Andrew Button on Motley Fool says this is a small Canadian bank with no US presence and therefore Trump proof. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Foolsays it is a Cheap Canadian stocks that will deliver outsized returns. The company put out a press release via Newswire about its fourth quarter of 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They have one warning of Significant insider selling over the past 3 months.

EQB Inc operates through its wholly owned subsidiary, Equitable Bank, Canada's Challenger Bank. It serves Canadians through two business lines, Personal Banking and Business Banking. The company differentiates by providing a host of challenger bank deposit services, alternative single-family lending, reverse mortgage lending, insurance lending, Specialized finance, Commercial finance group, Equipment financing, credit union services and trust services. Its web site is here EQB Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about Cogeco Communications Inc (TSX-CCA, OTC-CGEAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 5, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks February 2025 learn more on Tuesday, February 4, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Friday, January 31, 2025

Cogeco Communications Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telcom. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are mostly quite ugly. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Cogeco Communications Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price maybe cheap, but I do not like the amount of debt this company has. Not only is the debt too high, but the Intangible and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio is far too high. The stock price might be relatively low, but I believe it is low for these reasons. Personally, I would not own this stock. However, it is testing as quite cheap.

I do not own this stock of Cogeco Communications Inc (TSX-CCA, OTC-CGEAF). This stock was on the Money Sense list when I was looking for a new stock to follow.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this stock has been a mediocre performer. Its dividends are good, in the 5% ranges and they are increasing. They are not paying out too much in dividends, but capital gains have been low.

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,002.96 you would have bought 14 shares at $71.64 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $320.60 in dividends. The stock would be worth $942.90. Your total return would have been $1,263.50. This would be a total return of 2.60% per year with 0.62% from capital loss and 3.21% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$71.64 $1,002.96 14 10 $320.60 $942.90 $1,263.50

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.05%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.82% and 2.40%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.77%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% per year) at 10.2% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was 2024 and it was for 8%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 43% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 36% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 30% with 5 year coverage at 29%.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 43.63% 34.07%
AEPS 36.53% 32.01%
CFPS 10.36% 9.90%
FCF 30.49% 28.62%

Debt Ratios are mostly quite ugly. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is far too high at 1.56 and currently at 1.78. Then Intangible and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is far too high at 2.09 and currently at 2.37. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is far too low at 0.28 and 0.37 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.48 and currently at 1.71. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.56 and 1.58 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are too high at 3.25 and 2.08 and currently at 3.20 and 2.03.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 1.56 1.78
Intang/GW 2.09 2.37
Liquidity 0.28 0.37
Liq. + CF 1.48 1.71
Debt Ratio 1.56 1.58
Leverage 3.25 3.20
D/E Ratio 2.08 2.03

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 10.22% -5.86% -9.20% 3.34%
2014 10 11.03% 3.80% 0.29% 3.50%
2009 15 13.98% 9.55% 5.95% 3.60%
2004 20 0.00% 8.92% 5.93% 2.99%
1999 25 11.21% 6.28% 4.16% 2.12%
1994 30 0.00% 8.35% 6.16% 2.20%
1993 31 8.03% 5.95% 2.07%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.04, 11.02 and 12.99. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.11, 11.17 and 13.23. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.39, 11.49 and 13.63. These are all pretty consistent. The current P/E Ratio is 7.63 based on a stock price of $60.98 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $8.00. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.60, 10.47 and 12.35. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.85, 11.39 and 13.06. The current ratio is 7.52 based on a stock price of $60.98 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $8.11. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $115.79. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are the 0.85, 1.05 and 1.21. The current ratio is 0.53 based on a stock price of $60.98. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.94. The current P/B Ratio is 0.83 based on a stock price of $60.98, Book Value of $3,103M, and Book Value per Share of $73.48. The current ratio is 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $89.42. This implies a ratio of 0.68 with a stock price of $60.98 and a Book Value of $3,776M. This ratio is 65% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.52. The current ratio is 2.14 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $28.45, Cash Flow of $1,201M and a stock price of $60.98. The current ratio is 53% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.77%. The current dividend yield is 6.05% based on dividends of $3.688 and a stock price of $60.98. The current dividend yield is 242% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.40%. The current dividend yield is 6.05% based on dividends of $3.688 and a stock price of $60.98. The current dividend yield is 152% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.60. The current P/S Ratio is 0.87 based on a stock price of $60.98, Revenue estimate for 2025 of $2,959M and Revenue per Share of $70.08. The current ratio is 46% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests are saying that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio testing confirms this. All the testing is pointing to a relatively cheap price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (1), Hold (5). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $78.95 with a high of $92.00 and low of $71.00. The consensus stock price of $78.95 implies a total return of 35.52% with 29.47% from capital gains and 6.05% from dividends.

Analyst on Stock Chase likes this Telcom because of its dividend increases. Stock Chase gives this company 4 stars out of 5. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool likes this stock for its growing dividends. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks this is a Telcom to buy and hold forever. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this company. They have one warnings of Interest payments are not well covered by earnings on this company. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Cogeco Communications Inc is a communication corporation. The company is a cable operator in North America operating in Canada. The company earns majority of its revenue from Canadian telecommunications. The company operates in Canada and United States. Its web site is here Cogeco Communications Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be EQB Inc (TSX-EQB, OTC-EQGPF) ... learn more on Monday, February 3, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

AGF Management Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth restarted. See my spreadsheet on AGF Management Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The good thing is that the company is growing again. It is also giving dividend increases again. It has taken quite a bit of time to recover from problems that occurred around 2008. I personally would not be interested in the company again. If you like the company, now may not be the time to buy as the 10 year dividend yield test says it is relatively expensive.

I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF). I used to own this stock. I bought it in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I can see that the company is growing again. However, analysts do not expect much this year and perhaps the next few years. Take EPS, it is $1.46 in 2024, 2025 is expected to be $1.67, but 2026 to be $1.58 and 2027 to be $1.19. Net Income is the same story as EPS. They do expect the AEPS to be a bit better and to go from $1.67 in 2024 to $1.68 in 2025, to $1.78 in 2026 and $1.79 in 2027.

In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2025 and expected growth over this year.

Yr Item Tot. Gwth Per Year Gwth Coverage
5 Revenue Growth 25.53% 4.65% 0.84% <-12 mths
5 AEPS Growth 135.21% 19.46% -7.19% <-12 mths
5 Net Income Growth 103.88% 15.31% -4.82% <-12 mths
5 Cash Flow Growth 98.75% 14.73% 0.00%
5 Dividend Growth 42.19% 7.29% 1.10% <-12 mths
5 Stock Price Growth 79.49% 12.41% 0.45% <-12 mths
10 Revenue Growth 18.02% 1.67% 5.77% <-this year
10 AEPS Growth 145.59% 7.63% 0.60% <-this year
10 Net Income Growth 59.29% 4.77% 15.61% <-this year
10 Cash Flow Growth 165.80% 10.27%
10 Dividend Growth -57.87% -8.28% 6.22% <-this year
10 Stock Price Growth 12.45% 1.18% 0.45% <-this year

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,001.82 you would have bought 118 shares at $8.49 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $439.55 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,259.06. Your total return would have been $1,698.61. This would be a total return of 6.29% per year with 2.31% from capital gain and 3.98% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$8.49 $1,001.82 118 10 $439.55 $1,259.06 $1,698.61

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth restarted. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.09%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.36% and 5.46%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate at 4.76%. Dividends were cut in 2015. Dividend increases were started again in 2021. Dividend have been increasing at a low level (below 8% per year) at 7.3% per year over the past 5 years. Dividends are still some 57% below the dividends prior to the dividend cut.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 25% with 5 year coverage at 26%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow MS (FCF) is good at 29% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow Company (FCF) is good at 26% with 5 year coverage at 36%. The FCF from MS and the company are fairly similar.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 31.16% 29.82%
CFPS 24.81% 25.81%
FCF MS 28.54% 38.56%
FCF Comp 26.25% 35.88%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.02 and currently at 0.02. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is too low at 1.04 and 1.04 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.75 and currently low at 1.29. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 3.45 and 3.45 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.45 and 0.41 and currently at 1.45 and 0.41.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.02 0.02
Intang/GW 0.38 0.38
Liquidity 1.04 1.04
Liq. + CF 1.75 1.29
Debt Ratio 3.45 3.45
Leverage 1.45 1.41
D/E Ratio 0.41 0.41

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 7.29% 15.50% 10.63% 4.87%
2014 10 -8.28% 6.29% 2.31% 3.98%
2009 15 -5.11% 1.39% -3.06% 4.45%
2004 20 0.52% 2.22% -2.50% 4.72%
1999 25 4.54% 4.73% -0.34% 5.07%
1994 30 5.97% 12.87% 4.57% 8.30%
1990 34 6.14% 16.17% 6.56% 9.61%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.04, 6.39and 7.75. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.63, 7.98 and 9.45. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.15, 12.91 and 16.72. The current P/E Ratio is 6.76 based on a stock price of $11.25 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $1.67. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.89, 6.95 and 8.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.94, 8.92 and 11.62. The current P/AEPS 6.70 based on a stock price of $11.25 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $1.68. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $26.02. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.33, 0.39 and 0.50. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.43 based on a stock price of $11.25. The current ratio is between median and high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.47. The current P/B Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $11.25, Book Value of $1,159M, and Book Value per Share of $17.91. The current ratio is 33% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $18.81. This implies a ratio of 0.60 based on a stock price of $11.25 and a Book Value of $1,217M. This ratio is 27% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.03. The current P/CF Ratio is 12.23 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $0.92, a Cash Flow of $59.52 and a stock price of $11.25. The current ratio is 74% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.76%. The current dividend yield is 4.09% based on dividends of $0.46 and a stock price of $11.25. The current ratio is 14% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.46%. The current dividend yield is 4.09% based on dividends of $0.46 and a stock price of $11.25. The current ratio is 25% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.07. The current P/S Ratio is 1.26 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $580M, Revenue per Share of $7.73 and stock price of $11.25. The current ratio is 17% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The 10 year dividend yield test says so. The P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable but above the median. (It is close to being expensive.) Other tests are showing the stock price as relatively expensive. It is only the P/E Ratio and P/AESP Ratio tests that says the stock price might be reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (1), and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $13.21 with a high of $17.00 and low of $11.50. The consensus stock price of $13.21 implies a total return of $21.51% with 17.42% from capital gains and 4.09% from dividends.

This stock is not much followed on Stock Chase. There is one entry for 2024 and it is a sell. Analyst thinks that dividend is rising too quickly with non-quality earnings. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says the company is undervalue and has a good dividend (2021). Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this stock is for people seeking income and long term potential. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street has 2 warnings out on this stock of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.4% per year for the next 3 years; and unstable dividend track record. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

AGF Management is predominantly a Canadian-based independent asset manager (with some very minor operations and investments in the US, the UK, Ireland, and Asia). Its web site is here AGF Management Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Cogeco Communications Inc (TSX-CCA, OTC-CGEAF) ... learn more on Friday, January 31, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Line of Credit for Credit Card Debt.... learn more on Thursday, January 30, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Monday, January 27, 2025

Exco Technologies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth has stopped at the present time. See my spreadsheet on Exco Technologies Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The problem with this stock is that it could be cheap for a reason. Earnings growth stopped after 2018. It has restarted over the past 2 years, but the EPS is not back to where it was. The company is expected to have earnings growth this year. It is a small cap, so you are taking a risk when investing. They did act properly in stopping dividend growth. And, the stock is testing as cheap.

I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that their last dividend increase was in 2022. The Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) went to 85% in 2022. It has been coming down since then. Ideally, the DPR should be in the 40% ranges and it is expected to be a round 41% in 2025. It is never a good sign when a company stops raising their dividends.

In this chart covering for the last 5 and 10 years, you can see that they are having a hard time earnings money. They have cash flow, but earnings are lacking. This would be why they stopped dividend growth. Analysts see to expect some earnings growth this year. In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2025 and expected growth over this year.

Yr Item Tot. Gwth Per Year Gwth Coverage
5 Revenue Growth 25.71% 4.68% -0.52% <-12 mths
5 AEPS Growth -5.00% -1.02% 3.95% <-12 mths
5 Net Income Growth 11.21% 2.15% 6.51% <-12 mths
5 Cash Flow Growth 26.12% 4.75%
5 Dividend Growth 18.31% 3.42% 0.00% <-12 mths
5 Stock Price Growth 8.71% 1.68% -9.26% <-12 mths
10 Revenue Growth 73.19% 5.65% 4.20% <-this year
10 AEPS Growth -8.43% -0.88% 36.84% <-this year
10 Net Income Growth -3.39% -0.34% 36.05% <-this year
10 Cash Flow Growth 102.47% 7.31%
10 Dividend Growth 115.38% 7.97% 0.00% <-this year
10 Stock Price Growth -21.28% -2.36% 62.70% <-this year

If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,002.15 you would have bought 84 shares at $11.79 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $299.63 in dividends. The stock would be worth $638.35. Your total return would have been $937.98. This would be a total loss of 0.75% per year with 4.41% from capital loss and 3.66% from dividends.

Cost Tot. Cost Shares Years Dividends Stock Val Tot Ret
$11.79 $1,002.15 85 10 $299.63 $638.35 $937.98

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth has stopped at the present time. The dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.68%. The 5 year median dividend yield is also good at 5.31%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.24% and 3.06%. The Dividends have been increasing at a low rate (below 8% per year) at 3.42% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022. I would suspect that when the DPR is back into a reasonable range, the company will again increase their dividends.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 55% with 5 year coverage at 56%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is too high at 55% with 5 year coverage at 56%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 23% with 5 year coverage at 26%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 55% with 5 year coverage at 82%. However, there is no agreement on what the FCF is.

Item Cur 5 Years
EPS 55.26% 56.25%
AEPS 55.26% 56.25%
CFPS 22.60% 25.95%
FCF 55.17% 82.34%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.34 and currently at 0.36. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.65 and 2.65 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.69and 2.69 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are good at 1.59 and 0.59 and currently at 1.59 and 0.59.

Type Year End Ratio Curr
Lg Term R 0.34 0.36
Intang/GW 0.31 0.43
Liquidity 2.65 2.65
Liq. + CF 3.32 2.96
Debt Ratio 2.69 2.69
Leverage 1.59 1.59
D/E Ratio 0.59 0.59

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2024. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From Years Div. Gth Tot Ret Cap Gain Div.
2019 5 3.42% 4.12% -1.08% 5.20%
2014 10 7.97% -0.75% -4.41% 3.66%
2009 15 12.69% 15.90% 9.22% 6.67%
2004 20 11.23% 2.71% -0.01% 2.72%
1999 25 10.67% 4.86% 2.30% 2.56%
1994 30 5.65% 3.41% 2.25%
1990 34 11.55% 8.63% 2.92%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.21, 10.03, 12.67. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.30, 10.84 and 12.88. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.21, 11.82 and 15.68. The current P/E Ratio is 6.97 based on a stock price of $7.25 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $1.04. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I do have some Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.21, 10.03, 12.67. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.06, 10.43 and 12.71. The current P/AEPS ratio is 6.97 based on AEPS estimate for 2025 of $1.04. The current ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. (Note: that this company only occasionally has Adjusted Earnings per Share.)

I get a Graham Price of $15.21. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.61, 0.74, $0.88. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.48 based on a stock price $7.25. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.05. The current ratio is 0.73 based on a Book Value of $3814M, Book Value per Share of $9.89 and a stock price of $7.25. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.76. The current ratio is 3.42 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $81.7M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.12 and a stock price of $7.25. The current ratio is 49% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.06%. The current dividend yield is 5.79% based on dividends of $0.42 and stock price of $7.25. The current ratio is 89% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.25%. The current dividend yield is 5.79% based on dividends of $0.42 and stock price of $7.25. The current ratio is 37% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.62. The current P/S Ratio is 0.42 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $664.6M, Revenue per Share of $17.24, and a stock price of $7.25. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Other tests say the same thing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), and Buy (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $13.00 with a high of $15.00 and low of $11.00. The consensus stock price of $13.00 implies a total return 85.10% with 79.31% from capital gains and 5.79% from dividends.

This stock is not well followed on Stock Chase. An entry in November 2024 gives it a partial buy. They like the stock but says it has head winds. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says to buy to enhance the potential of your passive-income portfolio. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says Exco maintains a positive outlook due to stable consumer demand for automotive vehicles in most markets. . The company put out a press release on Global Newswire about their results for their fourth quarter ending September 30, 2024.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street has two warnings out on this stock of earnings have declined by 3% per year over past 5 years; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. None of the Executives nor the CEO I follow have sold shares in the past year.

Exco Technologies Ltd is a designer, developer, and manufacturer of dies, moulds, components and assemblies, and consumable equipment for the die-cast, extrusion, and automotive industries. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States and also has its presence in Canada, Europe, Asia, and other regions. Its web site is here Exco Technologies Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 29, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Trustworthy Finfluencers.... learn more on Tuesday, January 28, 2025 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.