Shaw Communications Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Telecom. Stock price is relatively expensive. It will probably be bought by Rogers. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth non-existent. See my spreadsheet on Shaw Communications Inc .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Since it will be bought by Rogers, I see no point in a small individual investor investing in this stock. The stock price is close to the buy out price. The gain has been made already. There is not much upside for small investors. It will be interesting how this all turns out. If for any reason the sale does not go through, the price for this stock will fall.

I do not own this stock of Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). I am following this stock because it was a stock on Investment Reporter’s list, a MPL Communications Publication.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they site does not work very well. Menu lines at top right do not work. I could not open previous annual reports as they would not come up. Good job that there are other places to find Annual Reports, like Annual Reports. I also could not find the list of Directors or the Leadership and had to google to get this information. This is supposed to be a tech company selling internet services? The site was most annoying.

The other thing to note is that Rogers Communications Inc (TSX-RCI.B, NYSE-RCI) is trying to buy Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). It will probably happen. I also noticed that last year in estimates, analysts expected the company to start to raise dividends in 2023. Now they do not see any raising of dividends any time soon.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,004.96 you would have bought 44 shares at $22.84 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $505.67 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,716.44. Your total return would have been $2,222.11.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$22.84	$1,004.96	44	10	$505.67	$1,716.44	$2,222.11

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to4% ranges) at 2.98%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.39% and 4.27%. The historical dividend yield is low (below 2%) at just 1.66%. I have dividend information covering 32 years and until 2008, the dividend yield was below 2%. The dividends have been flat since 2017. It does not look like any analyst expect future dividend increases.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 78% with 5 year coverage at 94%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 30% with 5 year coverage at 32%. There is disagreement about what the Free Cash Flow (FCF) is. However, for the FCF put out by the company, the DPR for 2022 is 73% with 5 year coverage also at 73%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good at 0.27. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.86. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it is 1.49 and not quite up to the ratio I like of 1.50. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.65. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are fine at 2.53 and 1.53.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.00%	10.02%	6.34%	3.68%
2012	10	2.29%	9.52%	5.50%	4.02%
2007	15	5.99%	6.86%	3.40%	3.47%
2002	20	21.28%	12.27%	8.16%	4.11%
1997	25	18.37%	14.29%	10.41%	3.88%
1992	30	15.68%	12.99%	9.93%	3.07%
1990	32	15.29%	14.78%	11.44%	3.34%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.96, 18.42 and 20.93. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.44, 15.96 and 18.42. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.58, 16.53 and 19.08. The current P/E Ratio is 25.49 based on a stock price of $39.76 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.56. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $21.22 . The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.18, 1.31 and 1.48. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.87 based on a stock price of $39.76. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.42. The current P/B Ratio is 3.10 based on a stock price of $39.76, Book Value of $6,411M and a Book Value per Share of $12.83. The current ratio is 38% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $13.00. This implies a book value of $6,496M and a P/B Ratio 3.06 based on a stock price of $39.76. The is ratio of 3.06 is 26% above the 10 year median P/B Ratio of 2.42. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.10. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.56 based on Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) estimate for 2023 of $4.16, Cash Flow of $2,079M, and a stock price of $39.76. The current ratio is 18% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.66%. The current dividend yield is 2.98% based on dividends of $1.185 and a stock price of $39.76. The current yield is 80% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year dividend yield of 4.27%. The current dividend yield is 2.98% based on dividends of $1.185 and a stock price of $39.76. The current yield is 30% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.52. The current P/S Ratio is 3.65 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $5,444M, Revenue per Share of $10.89 and a stock price of $39.76. This ratio is 45% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The 10 year dividend yield test says this and is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. I am disregarding the historical dividend yield test, as yields change from low to moderate in around 2006 and around 16 years ago and so quite a while ago. All the other testing is supporting an expensive stock price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Hold (10) recommendations. The 12 month stock price target is $40.17. This implies a total return of 4.01% with 1.03% from capital gains and 2.98% from dividends based on a current stock price of $39.76.

Most comments from analysts on Stock Chase is about the Rogers’ deal. They think it will close. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense list with a C Rating. Vineet Kulkarni on Motley Fool talks about Rogers and the deal to buy Shaw. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool talks about Shaw jumping in price after the Canadian competition tribunal approved the proposed Rogers Communications-Shaw merger deal. The company put out a press release on Global Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2022.

The company put out a press release on Global Newswire about their first quarter for 2023. There is an article from the Financial Post on Yahoo Finance about the Commissioner of Competition’s appeal of a tribunal decision to approve their $26-billion merger. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and list one risk of a high level of debt.

Shaw Communications is a Canadian cable company that is one of the biggest providers of internet, television, and landline telephone services in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northern Ontario. Its web site is here Shaw Communications Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 1, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Hydro One Ltd.... learn more on Tuesday, January 31, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Enghouse Systems Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech. Stock price is reasonable, if not cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on Enghouse Systems Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a small Tech company, so there is risk in investing in this company. The stock has mostly done well for shareholders in the past. The dividend yields maybe low, but it is increasing quite nicely. For long term investors, the stock price is reasonable, if not cheap. It is the dividend yield tests that says it is cheap. Some people rely only on the dividend yield tests. I also like that the fact that the debt ratios are good. This is important for small cap stocks.

I do not own this stock of Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF). This stock has been recommended by Keystone Financial Publishing as a good Small Cap tech stock with dividend. May 2011.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that analysts expected a revenue increase of 3.8% from $467M to $485M, but increased revenue declined by 8% to $428M. However, EPS was basically on target coming in at $1.70 compared to estimate of $1.67.

Also, the company has no long term debt and great Debt Ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is important and this, for 2022 is 2.04 (where a good one is 1.50). The Debt Ratio is also good at 3.58 ( where ones at 1.50 and above are good). The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.39 and 0.39 (where good ones are below 2.00 and below 1.00).

You can see from the following chart that growth has slowed. Growth over the past 5 year some growth is a lot lower, for example Revenue Growth over the past 10 years was at 12% per year but over the past 5 years, it has been at 5.6% per year. It is the same for Cash Flow growth and Stock Price Growth.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	31.42%	5.62%
5	EPS Growth	81.82%	12.70%
5	Net Income Growth	85.87%	13.20%
5	Cash Flow Growth	23.95%	4.39%
5	Dividend Growth	130.00%	18.13%
5	Stock Price Growth	11.12%	2.13%
10	Revenue Growth	213.55%	12.11%
10	EPS Growth	325.00%	15.57%
10	Net Income Growth	352.73%	16.30%
10	Cash Flow Growth	339.54%	15.96%
10	Dividend Growth	500.00%	19.62%
10	Stock Price Growth	325.12%	15.57%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,006.25 you would have bought 115 shares at $8.75 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $588.23 in dividends. The stock would be worth $4,136.55. Your total return would have been $4,724.48.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$8.75	$1,006.25	115	10	$588.23	$4,136.55	$4,724.78

If you had invested in this company in December 2002, for $1,002.38 you would have bought 405 shares now costing at $2.48 per share. In December 2022, after 20 years you would have received $1,617.98 in dividends. The stock would be worth $14,567.85. Your total return would have been $16,185.83.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$2.48	$1,002.38	405	20	$1,617.98	$14,567.85	$16,185.83

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.88%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low at 0.98%, 1.03% and 1.13%. The dividend growth for the last 5 years is good (15% and above) at 18.13% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 15.6%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is $41% with 5 year coverage at 54%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 38% with 5 year coverage at 40%.

Debt Ratios are good. The company currently has no Long Term Debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is good at 2.04. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 3.58. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.39 and 0.39.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	18.13%	5.56%	3.19%	2.38%
2012	10	19.62%	17.65%	15.18%	2.46%
2007	15	20.62%	18.43%	16.27%	2.16%
2002	20		15.74%	14.32%	1.42%
1997	25		12.27%	11.31%	0.96%
1995	27		13.61%	12.66%	0.95%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 24.39, 32.85 and 40.27. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.94, 31.39 and 37.25. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.48, 22.80 and 29.46. The current P/E Ratio is 26.01 based on a stock price of $39.27 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.51. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $17.68. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.16, 2.69 and 3.27. The current ratio is 2.22 based on a stock price of $39.27. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.17. The current ratio 4.27 based on a Book Value of $508M, Book Value per Share of $9.20 and a stock price of $39.27. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 20.70. The current ratio is 20.66 based on Cash Flow estimate for 2023 of $105M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.90 and a stock price of $39.27. The current ratio is 0.2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.13%. The current dividend yield is 1.88% based on a stock price of $39.27 and dividends of $0.74. The current ratio is 67% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.03%. The current dividend yield is 1.88% based on a stock price of $39.27 and dividends of $0.74. The current ratio is 84% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.18. the current P/S Ratio is 4.93 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $440M, Revenue per Share of $7.96 and a stock price $39.27. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and maybe be cheap. The dividend yield tests both show the stock price as cheap. However, the P/S Ratio test just says it is reasonable, so this test does not confirm the dividend yield test. Most of the other tests are say the stock price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2) and Hold (2). The Consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $39.13. This implies a total return of 1.53%, with 1.88% from dividends and a capital loss of $0.36% based on a current stock price of $39.27.

Last year when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus was $60.25. This implied a total return of 42.30% with 40.80% from capital gains and 1.50% from dividends based on a current stock price of $42.79. What happened was a loss of 6.73% with a capital loss of 8.23% and dividends of 1.50%. The stock price moved from $42.79 to $39.27.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this company. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense list with a C rating. Stephanie Bedard-Chateauneuf on Motley Fool looks at this stock and says why she thinks it is a buy. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool also looks at this stock and says why he thinks it is a buy.

The company put out a press release via Newswire about their 2022 results. Simply Wall Street reviews this stock via Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It lists 2 risks of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.4% per year for the next 3 years; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months.

Enghouse Systems Ltd is a Canada-based provider of software and services to a variety of end markets. The firm's operations are organized in two segments namely, the Interactive Management Group and the Asset Management Group. The firm has operations in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Sweden, Israel, Croatia, Denmark, Norway, India, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Australia etc. Its web site is here Enghouse Systems Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) ... learn more on Monday, January 30, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Sylogist Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. The problem for Debt Ratios is the awful Liquidity Ratio with other ratios fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are awful and they cannot afford their dividends. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Sylogist Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a high risk investment because it is a small company and it is Tech and it has been having some problems of late. Long Term returns have varied a lot. Betting on it might work out ok. The stock price would seem to be cheap.

I do not own this stock of Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF). I learned about this stock from the newsletter I subscribe to.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the Liquidity Ratio was really low. For 2022 it is 0.56. I like this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. They have Deferred Revenue but this only get them to 0.94. They also have Credit Facilities. With both Deferred Revenue and Credit facilities the Ratio is 3.92. The problem with low Liquidity Ratios, a company can be forced into a bad situation in economic recession. In an economic recession, a company may not be able to count on Credit Facilities.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,001.00 you would have bought 286 shares at $3.50 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $943.80 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,761.76. Your total return would have been $2,705.56.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$3.50	$1,001.00	286	10	$943.80	$1,761.76	$2,705.56

If you had invested in this company in December 1998 just after when it started to trade on the TSX, for $1,000.35 you would have bought 117 shares at $8.55 per share. In December 2022, after 24 years you would have received $416.40 in dividends. The stock would be worth $720.72. Your total return would have been $1,137.12.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$8.55	$1,000.35	117	24	$416.40	$720.72	$1,137.12

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.61%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.64%, 3.02% and 3.02%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years to the end of September 2022 financial year is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 12.3% per year. Unfortunately, the last change to dividends is a decrease of 20%. Therefore, if we take the growth to date it is low at 4.6% per year over the past 5 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are awful and they cannot afford their dividends. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 417% with 5 year coverage at 153%. The DPR for EPS is not expected to be under 100% within the next 3 years. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings Per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 294% with 5 year coverage at 150%. This is also not expected to be under 100% in the next 3 years. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 92% with 5 year coverage at 72%. This is expected to be over 100% soon and it should be at 40% or lower. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 (by WSJ) is 101% with 5 year coverage at 76%. There is no agreement on what the FCF is.

The problem for Debt Ratios is the awful Liquidity Ratio with other ratios fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good and low at 0.17. The Liquidity Ratio is awful at 0.56 and adding in Cash Flow after dividends just moves it to 0.58. You only get a good one by considering the current debt and it reaches a good 3.26. However, low Liquidity Ratios can cause problems in bad times and in bad times you cannot always roll over your debt. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.56. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.80 and 1.80.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	12.30%	-4.06%	-9.38%	5.32%
2012	10	15.34%	13.23%	5.82%	7.41%
2007	15	18.69%	32.28%	20.00%	12.29%
2002	20		37.09%	26.06%	11.03%
1998	24		0.75%	-1.36%	2.10%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 45.25, 76.39 and 98.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 34.24, 47.38 and 61.77. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.63, 21.05 and 26.05. The current P/E Ratio is 43.21 based on a stock price of $6.05 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.14. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. Note that the ratios are very high. When EPS falls, the stock price will only fall so much because people see that the company has value.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 24.55, 28.98 and 33.41. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.24, 30.17 and 37.33. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 31.84 based on AEPS for 2023 of $0.19 and a stock price of $6.05. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. These are also very high ratios.

I get a Graham Price of $2.33. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.22, 2.92 and 3.89. The current ratio is 2.60 based on a stock price of $6.05. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.15. The current P/B Ratio is 3.51 based on a stock price of $6.05, Book Value per Share of $1.73 and a Book Value of $41M. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 18.21. The current P/CF Ratio is 22.26 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $0.27, Cash Flow of $6.5M and a stock price of $6.05. The current ratio is 22% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.02%. The current dividend yield is 6.61% based on dividends of $0.40 and a stock price of $6.05. The current dividend yield is 119% above the historical median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.02%. The current dividend yield is 6.61% based on dividends of $0.40 and a stock price of $6.05. The current dividend yield is 119% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.13. The current P/S Ratio is 2.40 based on a stock price of $6.05, Revenue estimate for 2023 of $60.2M and Revenue per Share of $2.52. The current ratio is 66% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests say so and is confirmed by the P/S Ratio tests. However, there are lots of problems in testing this stock. Lots of ratios are very high, including P/E Ratios, P/B Ratios, P/CF Ratios and P/GP Ratios. The dividend yield is still quite high considering the recent cut to dividends. The clearest test is the P/S Ratio test.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $9.38. This implies a total return of $61.655 with 55.04% from capital gains and 6.61% from dividend based on a stock price of $6.05.

Opinions on this stock on Stock Chase vary a lot from Buy to Do Not Buy. Problem is the stock is illiquid. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense list. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks there is a fire sale on this stock with solid organic growth. Robin Brown on Motley Fool thinks this stock is incredibly cheap. The company put out a Press Release on their 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says this stock is undervalue and its intrinsic value is $10.81. Simply Wall Street has 3 risk warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 155.6% per year for the next 3 years; large one-off items impacting financial results; and profit margins (5.4%) are lower than last year (11.3%).

Sylogist Ltd is a software company that provides Enterprise Resource Planning solutions, including fund accounting, grant management, and payroll to public service organizations. The only segment is Public Sector. Geographically, the company offers its services to the United States of America, Canada, and the United Kingdom region. Most of the revenue comes from the United States of America. Its web site is here Sylogist Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more on Friday, January 27 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Financial Psychology .... learn more on Thursday, January 25, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Transcontinental Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Debt Ratios are fine with a good Liquidity Ratio. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Transcontinental Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock is never going to be great stock, but it probably can produce a return of 8% per year. A bad sign is that dividends have been flat since 2020. But analysts do expect dividends to start to rise again this year so this is a good sign. They have been a dependable dividend producing stock. The price seems to be relatively cheap. There is insider buying and this is a good sign.

I own this stock of Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF). This has been a dividend growth stock and will probably be that again. It was on several dividend lists. However, it fell on hard times after 2008, but currently seems to be recovering. It is was on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index when I bought it in 2015.

I plan to hold on to the stock that I have. I have not made much , a total return of 5.12% per year over the past 8 years. However, my purchases were in the $15 range and I think it will go higher.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that Revenue came in higher than expected. Analysts expected an 3.2% increase, but Revenue increased 11.8%. However, Adjusted Net Earnings was expected to fall 2%, but fell 7.6%. It was expected at $2.32 and came in at $2.19.

I noticed also that analysts expected this company to restart raising their dividends in 2022, from $0.90 to $0.97 and continue to raise them in the following years. This did not happen. Now analysts are expecting the dividends to go to $0.91 in 2023 and $0.96 in 2024.

There is some insider buying. The CFO increased his shares by 57%, from 16,050 to 25,250 shares. Another officer increased her shares by 11% from 16,000 to 20,000. There is a fair amount of insider ownership by the Marcoux family, with say, Remi Marcoux owning some 12,562,840 Class B shares.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,003.50 you would have bought 90 shares at $11.15 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $790.20 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,375.20. Your total return would have been $2,165.40. As the chart below shows, the 10 year total return if 10.32% with 3.20% from capital gains and 7.12% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$11.15	$1,003.50	90	10	$790.20	$1,375.20	$2,165.40

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.91%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.86% and 4.22%. The historical dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.70%. They have been paying dividends for 29 years and dividends were below 2% prior to 2009. The dividends have increase at a low level over the past 5 years at 2.8% per year. However, the last dividend increase was in 2020. Analysts are expecting dividend increase in the future.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2022 for EPS is 55% with 5 year coverage at 48%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 41% with 5 year coverage at 35%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 18% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 100% with 5 year coverage at 34%.

Debt Ratios are fine with a good Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 0.73 and this is fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is good at 2.07. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 1.98. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are fine at 2.02 and 1.02. They would be good if below 2.00 and 1.00, so they are close.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	2.77%	-4.95%	-9.26%	4.31%
2012	10	4.67%	10.32%	3.20%	7.12%
2007	15	3.02%	4.24%	-0.20%	4.43%
2002	20	10.60%	2.32%	-0.95%	3.27%
1997	25	11.44%	7.66%	3.72%	3.94%
1992	30	9.21%	7.84%	4.29%	3.54%
1988	34		9.45%	5.90%	3.55%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.06, 9.43 and 11.82. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.55, 9.08 and 11.00. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.21, 12.74 and 14.74. The current P/E Ratio is 9.58 based on a stock price of $15.23 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.59. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.57, 7.51 and 8.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.29, 7.40 and 8.58. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 7.12 based on a stock price of $15.23 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $2.14. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $32.29. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.51, 0.65 and 0.77. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.47 based on a stock price of $15.23. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.35. The current ratio is 0.70 based on a stock price of $15.23, Book Value of $1,876M and Book Value per Share of $21.66. The current ratio is 48% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023. That estimate is $22.30 and would produced a ratio of 0.68 based on a stock price of $15.23 and a Book Value of $1,932M. This ratio is 50% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.03. The current P/CF Ratio is 3.13 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate of $4.87, Cash Flow of $422M and a stock price of $15.23. The current ratio is 38% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.70%. The current dividend yield is 5.91% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $15.23. The current yield is 248% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.22%. The current dividend yield is 5.91% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $15.23. The current yield is 40% above the 10 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.63. The current ratio is 0.44 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $3,032M, Revenue per Share of $35.00 and a stock price of $15.23. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The 10 year dividend yield test is showing this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the other tests are showing the same thing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3) and Hold (3) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price of $21.50. This implies a total return of $47.08% with 41.17% from capital gains and 5.91% from dividends based on a current stock price of $15.23.

Last year when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price was $26.50. This implied a total return of 37.14% with 32.63% from capital gains and 4.50% from dividends based on a stock price of $19.98. What happened was a drop in price to $15.23 and a loss of 19.27% with a capital loss of 23.77% and dividends of 4.50%. This is the second year in a row that analysts expected a strong price rise. Perhaps this year it will happen.

The last recommendation is a sell on Stock Chase because the analyst think there are better stocks to buy. Some analysts like this stock and some do not. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense list for 2022 with an A rating. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a current buy. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool also thinks this stock is a buy. The company put out a press release via Globe Newswire on their results for 2022.

A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance in January 2023 suggest that this stock is still a buy. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. They also give 3 warnings of has a high level of debt; dividend of 5.91% is not well covered; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months. It looks more to me that insiders are not picking up stock options rather than selling stock.

Transcontinental Inc or TC Transcontinental, is a Canadian printer and flexible packaging provider that operates in three segments: packaging, printing, and other. Its packaging segment features the production of different plastic products geared toward consumer goods. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 24, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Quarterhill Inc .... learn more on Tuesday, January 24, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and may even be cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine based on the DPR for AEPS. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This bank has been producing reasonable profits for its shareholders over the long term. If you like this bank, now is the time to buy when it is cheap. It may take awhile to cover, but you cannot beat getting a bank cheap. The stock price is certainly reasonable and maybe even cheap as shown by several stock price tests, including the dividend yield tests.

I do not own this stock of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM). This was the only major Canadian Bank I was not following. I think it is about time I did, so I started to follow this bank in 2017.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the stock price fell a lot last year and it has not really recovered. The stock price fell 25.7% in 2022 and it is only up by 6.8% to date this year. Stock price was $73.73 in December 2021, $54.77 in December 2022 and it now $58.50. Also note that the stock was split 2 to 1 in May of 2022.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,039.61 you would have bought 26 shares at $39.99 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $663.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,521.00. Your total return would have been $2,184.00.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$39.99	$1,039.61	26	10	$663.00	$1,521.00	$2,184.00

If you had invested in this company in December 1988, for $1,078.11 you would have now 162 shares at costing $6.19 per share. In December 2022, after 33 years you would have received $7,634.25 in dividends. The stock would be worth $9,477.00. Your total return would have been $17,111.25.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$6.19	$1,078.11	162	33	$7,634.25	$9,477.00	$17,111.25

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.81%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.66%, 4.66% and 4.59%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 5.3% per year over the past 5 years. There was no time period when the growth was higher than 8%. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 2.4%. However, this bank tends to increase the dividends more than once a year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine based on the DPR for AEPS. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 49% with 5 year coverage at 50%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 47% with 5 year coverage at 48%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 49% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2022 is 14% with 5 year coverage at 12%. There is no consensus on what the FCF is. The important ratio is for AEPS.

Debt Ratios are fine. Since this is a bank, I am looking at Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio and for 2022 it is good at 0.84. I calculate a Liquidity Ratio for 2022 of 5.81, but for banks this is not an important ratio. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is 1.06 and this is fine for banks.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 39 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	5.31%	2.74%	-2.22%	4.96%
2012	10	6.10%	8.61%	3.20%	5.41%
2007	15	5.12%	8.06%	2.98%	5.08%
2002	20	7.33%	10.52%	4.85%	5.67%
1997	25	7.62%	8.02%	3.66%	4.36%
1992	30	7.97%	13.70%	7.26%	6.44%
1987	35	7.24%	11.86%	6.46%	5.39%
1983	39	6.72%	13.11%	7.04%	6.07%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.23, 10.08 and 10.87. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.46, 9.98 and 10.82. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.09, 9.72 and 10.96. They are consistent. The current P/E Ratio is 9.08 based on a stock price of $58.50 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $6.44. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.97, 9.45 and 10.47. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.19, 9.43 and 10.63. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 8.57 based on a stock price of $58.50 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $6.83. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $87.53. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.69, 0.81 and 0.92. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.67 based on a stock price of $58.50. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.56. The current P/B Ratio is 1.17 based on a Book Value of $45,258M, Book Value per Share of $49.86 and stock price of $58.50. The current P/B Ratio is 25% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 and it is $54.00. This gives a ratio of 1.08 and book Value of $49, 021M based on a stock price of $58.50. This ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.60. The current P/CF Ratio is 2.34 based on last 12 month Cash Flow of $422,715M, Cash Flow per Share of $25.02 and a stock price of $58.50. The current ratio is 10% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. However, Cash Flow is not considered very important for banks.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.59%. The current dividend yield is 5.81% based on dividends of $3.40 and a stock price of $58.50. The current yield is 27% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.66%. The current dividend yield is 5.81% based on dividends of $3.40 and a stock price of $58.50. The current yield is 25% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.76. The current ratio is 2.29 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $23,235M, Revenue per Share of $25.60 and a stock price of $58.50. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and may even be cheap. Both the dividend yield tests are pointing to cheap. The P/S Ratio is showing reasonable, but the ratio is 17% below the 10 year median. Other tests are also pointing to a cheap price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2), Hold (12), Underperform (1), and Sell (1). The current consensus is a Hold, but the recommendations are all over the place. The 12 month stock price consensus is $64.70. This implies a total return of 16.41% with 10.60% from capital gains and 5.81% from dividends based on a stock price of $58.50.

Last year, when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (6) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $82.72. This implies a total return of 7.41% with 4.02% from dividends and 3.39% from capital gains based on a stock price of $80.01. What happened was a price change to $58.50 with a total loss of 22.86% with a capital loss of 26.88 and dividends of $4.02. (Prices are changed to account for the 2 for 1 stock split.

This site of Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Most analysts on this site do not like this bank and think you are better off with other Canadian Banks. It is on the Money Sense list with a B rating. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks you should buy this bank as it has fallen the most. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool thinks that this bank is a good buy at its current price and yield. This bank put out a press release via Newswire on their results for 2022. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and they do not seem to like it much. Simply Wall Street rate this bank with 4 stars out of 5. They list no risk. Their negativity on this stock and the star ratings do not seem to match up.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is Canada's fifth-largest bank, operating three business segments: retail and business banking, wealth management, and capital markets. It serves approximately 11 million personal banking and business customers, primarily in Canada. Its web site is here Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

The last stock I wrote about was about was National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... learn more on Monday, January 23, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

National Bank of Canada

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: xxx. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but it is above the median. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on National Bank of Canada.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that this bank has done well for its shareholders over the longer term. Analysts do not say anything bad about this bank, they just seem to prefer other banks to this one. It is the smallest bank of the big 6 banks in Canada. The stock price still seems reasonable, but it is above the median.

I do not own this stock of National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF). I thought I should follow one of the smaller Canadian Banks. This seems like a good choice.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that shareholders have done very well with this stock. If you bought it 10 years ago, you total return would be 13.27% with 8.98% from capital gains and 4.29% from dividends. See charts below.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,004.12 you would have bought 26 shares at $38.62 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $621.27 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,371.98. Your total return would have been $2,993.25.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$38.62	$1,004.12	26	10	$621.27	$2,371.98	$2,993.25

If you had invested in this company in December 1988, for $1,000.50 you would have 174 shares with a cost $5.75 per share. In December 2022, after 34 years you would have received $6,792.09 in dividends. The stock would be worth $15,874.02. Your total return would have been $22,666.11.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$5.75	$1,000.50	174	34	$6,792.09	$15,874.02	$22,666.11

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.98%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.23%, 4.17% and 3.94%. The current dividend growth is low (below8%) at 5.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 2023 and it was for 5.4%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 35% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 35% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 29% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) could be 39% with 5 year coverage at 23%. (There is a big disagreement on what the FCF is.)

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this is a bank, I am looking at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio and for 2022 it is 0.71 and this is good. I get a Liquidity Ratio for 2022 at 9.53. This is not considered important for banks. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is 1.06 and this is considered acceptable for banks.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	5.72%	11.94%	7.78%	4.16%
2012	10	7.92%	13.27%	8.98%	4.29%
2007	15	7.57%	12.92%	8.69%	4.23%
2002	20	10.30%	13.32%	9.04%	4.27%
1997	25	10.53%	12.21%	8.53%	3.68%
1992	30	6.75%	15.78%	10.92%	4.85%
1987	35	6.93%	12.25%	8.39%	3.86%
1986	36	7.04%	10.47%	7.31%	3.16%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.65, 9.81 and 11.77. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.66, 9.88 and 11.64. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.52, 9.81 and 11.64. The current ratio is 10.19 based on a stock price of $97.46 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $9.56. The current ratio is between the median and high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.64, 9.67 and 10.97. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.65, 9.75 and 11.34. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 10.12 based on a stock price of $97.46 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $9.63. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $109.41. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.75, 0.87 and 1.00. The current ratio is 0.89 based on a stock price of $97.46. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.72. The current P/B Ratio is 1.76 based on a stock price of $97.46, Book Value of $18,954M, and Book Value per Share of $55.24. The current ratio is 2.45% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $60.70. This would imply a ratio of 1.61 with a stock price of $97.46 and Book Value of $20,430M. This P/B Ratio is 7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.09. The current P/CF Ratio is negative, so I cannot do any P/CF Ratio testing.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.94%. The current dividend yield is 3.98% based on dividends of $3.88 and a stock price of $97.46. The current ratio is 1% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.17%. The current dividend yield is 3.98% based on dividends of $3.88 and a stock price of $97.46. The current ratio is 6% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.96. The current P/S Ratio is 3.12 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $10,520M, Revenue per Share of $31.26 and a stock price of $97.46. The current ratio is 5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but it is above the median. The 10 year median dividend yield test says this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the other testing is say the same thing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (4) and Underperform (2). So, the recommendations are quite diverse. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price of $103.88. This implies a total return of 10.57% with 6.59% from capital gains and 3.98% from dividends based on a current stock price of $97.46.

Some Analysts on Stock Chase think it is doing well, and some do not. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense list with a B rating. Kay Ng on Motley Fool says it is the best performing Canadian Bank. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool says this stock is too cheap to ignore. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their fourth quarter for 2022. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 starts out of 5 and lists no risks.

National Bank of Canada is the sixth-largest Canadian bank. The bank offers integrated financial services, primarily in the province of Quebec as well as the city of Toronto. Operational segments include personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and a financial markets group. Its web site is here National Bank of Canada.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) ... learn more on Friday, January 20, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Pason Systems .... learn more on Thursday, January 19, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Bank of Nova Scotia

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Bank of Nova Scotia.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It is one of the big banks in Canada. It is a dividend growth company. Which is what I like. It seems to be having problems now, but it will probably do well in the longer term. The current price seems to be in the cheap range. On Stock Chase, analysts do not seem to like this bank as well as the others, but they do think it will be fine in the long term.

I do not own this stock of Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS). This is one of the big banks of Canada. All our big banks are dividend growth companies. Besides, my son owns shares in this bank.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed total return for this bank was under 8% for the last 15 years. See chart below. This is different from the other banks I reviewed so far. Bank of Montreal was under 8% total return for the last 5 years only, as was the Toronto-Dominion Bank. Royal Bank of Canada had all Total Returns for all years above 8%.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,034.28 you would have bought 18 shares at $57.46.43 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $567.34 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,194.12. Your total return would have been $1,763.46.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$57.46	$1,034.28	18	10	$569.34	$1,194.12	$1,763.46

If you had invested in this company in December 1997, for $1,010.40 you would have now 60 shares at cost of $16.84 per share. In December 2022, after 25 years you would have received $3,053.40 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,980.40. Your total return would have been $7,033.80.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$16.84	$1,010.40	60	25	$3,053.40	$3,980.40	$7,033.80

If you had invested in this company in December 1988, for $1,001.81 you would have now 274 shares at a cost of $3.66 per share. In December 2022, after 33 years you would have received $14,644.62 in dividends. The stock would be worth $18,177.16. Your total return would have been $32,821.78.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$3.66	$1,001.81	274	33	$14,644.62	$18,177.16	$32,821.78

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.13%. The 5 year median dividend yield is also good at 5.12%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.56% and 4.20%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 5.9% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 3%. Banks tend to give out more than one dividend increase in a year. The dividends were increased in 2022 by 12.8%. This was after no increase in 2021. (The Canadian banks did not do increases in 2021.)

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 51% with 5 year coverage at 52%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 48% with 5 year coverage at 51%. I cannot calculate the DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) because of negative Cash Flow. (Cash Flow is not considered significant for banks.) The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 28% with 5 year coverage at 34%. (However, there is no agreement on what the FCF is.)

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this is a bank, I am looking at Deposit Debt/Covering Assets Ratio and for 2022 it is good at 0.72. I have calculated a Liquidity Ratio for 2022 of 1.23, but Liquidity Ratio is not considered important for banks. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 and this is fine for banks.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 37 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	5.89%	0.86%	-3.94%	4.80%
2012	10	6.37%	6.49%	1.45%	5.05%
2007	15	5.81%	6.50%	1.87%	4.63%
2002	20	9.00%	10.06%	4.73%	5.33%
1997	25	10.06%	10.60%	5.64%	4.96%
1992	30	9.59%	14.65%	8.38%	6.28%
1987	35	9.31%	15.67%	9.00%	6.67%
1985	37	8.95%	13.90%	8.22%	5.68%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.82, 10.71 and 11.78. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.51, 11.03 and 12.78. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.29, 11.18 and 13.20. The current P/E Ratio is 8.49 based on a stock price of $69.62 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $8.20. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.72, 10.02 and 11.12. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.23, 10.85 and 12.11. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 8.37 based on AEPS estimate for 2023 of $8.32 and a stock price of $69.92. The current ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $101.18. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.71, 0.82 and 0.96. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.69 based on a stock price of $69.92. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.51. The current P/B Ratio is 1.27 based on a stock price of $69.92, Book Value of $65,150M and Book Value per Share of $54.68. The current ratio is 16% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $59.60. This implies a ratio of 1.17 with a Book Value of $71,006M and a stock price of $69.92. This ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.44. The current ratio is 4.90 based on Cash Flow per Share for the last 12 months of $14.22, Cash Flow of $16,943 and a stock price of $69.92. The current ratio is 10% below the 10 year median ratio. However, Cash Flow is not considered important for banks as it can often be negative.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.20%. The current dividend yield is 5.92% based on dividends of $4.12 and a stock price of $69.92. The current ratio is 41% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.56%. The current dividend yield is 5.92% based on dividends of $4.12 and a stock price of $69.92. The current ratio is 30% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.00. The current P/S Ratio is 2.44 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $33,958, Revenue per Share of $28.50 and a stock price of $69.92. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The 10 year median dividend yield test says this. The P/S Ratio test is showing very close to cheap. Other testing is showing mostly cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (1) and Hold (11). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $78.17. This implies a total return of 18.20% with 12.28% from capital gains and 5.92% from dividends based on a current stock price of $69.92.

Some Analysts on Stock Chase are not very fond of this bank. Stock Chase give the bank 5 stars out of 5. Money Sense rates this stock a B. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool thinks this is a good passive income stock. Kay Ng on Motley Fool reviews all the banks and this bank does not make it into her top 4. The bank reports on their fourth quarter for 2020 via a Press Release on Newswire. There is a report on this bank by Bay Street. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list no risk checks.

Bank of Nova Scotia is a global financial services provider. The bank has five business segments: Canadian banking, international banking, global wealth management, global banking, and markets, and other. It offers a range of advice, products, and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management and private banking, corporate and investment banking, and capital markets. The bank's international operations span numerous countries and are more concentrated in Central and South America. Its web site is here Bank of Nova Scotia.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 18, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Personal Taxes 2022 .... learn more on Tuesday, January 17, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.