Home Capital Group

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. The current stock price seems to be reasonable. They have restarted dividends in 2022 and I believe it will be a dividend growth stock again. See my spreadsheet on Home Capital Group .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still think that the stock price is reasonable. The P/S Ratio testing says it is almost cheap. I still like this company and I will continue to hold my shares. It will be nice to finally receive a dividend.

I own this stock of Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF). I started reviewing this company in September 2009. It is a dividend growth company and was coming up on lists of good, dividend paying stocks. It is on some dividends paying companies lists that I look at. I am glad I did not sell it and held on and now it its back being a dividend growth stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they have restarted their dividends. The yield is low at 1.58% but it is a start. When it paid dividends before, they were mostly until 2% until the company got into problems.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1006.55 you would have bought 41 shares at $24.55 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $156.21 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1601.87. Your total return would have been $1758.08.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$24.55	$1,006.55	41	10	$156.21	$1,601.87	$1,758.08

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth restarting. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.58%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0%, 1.44% and 1.27%. The company has not paid dividends since 2017 and in 2022 they will now again pay dividends. I believe it will be a dividend growth stock again.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good and expected to continue to be good. The last year of full dividend payments was 2016. The DPR for EPS for 2016 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 19%. The expected DPR for EPS for 2022 is 11%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2016 was 23% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The expected DPR for 2022 is 7%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2016 was 12%. There are no estimates for FCF for 2022.

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this is a financial stock, I am looking at Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio. That ratio for 2021 is 0.72 and this is good. The Liquidity Ratio is not important for financial, but I still calculated it and for 2021 it is 2.77. The Debt Ratio is 1.08 and this is fine for financials.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	0.00%	4.67%	4.51%	0.17%
2011	10	0.00%	6.17%	4.76%	1.42%
2006	15	0.00%	7.13%	5.62%	1.51%
2001	20	0.00%	16.99%	14.16%	2.83%
1996	25	0.00%	35.98%	26.96%	9.02%
1995	26	0.00%	39.93%	29.20%	10.73%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.31, 9.38 and 11.15. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.45, 9.18 and 11.43. The corresponding historical ratios are 7.50, 9.06 and 11.89. The current P/E Ratio is 7.25 based on a stock price of $37.98 and EPS estimate of $5.24. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $65.65. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.53, 0.74 and 0.92. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.58 based on a current stock price of $37.98. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current ratio of 1.04 is based on the Book Value of the last 12 months of $1,571M, Book Value per Share of $36.55 and a stock price of $37.98. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Analysts give a Book Value per Share for 2022 of $40.40. This would give a current P/B Ratio of 0.94 based on Book Value per Share of $2022, Book Value of $1,736M and a stock price of $37.98. This P/B Ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.02. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.37 based on Cash Flow of last 12 months of $373M, Cash Flow per Share of $8.69 and a stock price of $37.98. The current ratio is 9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.27%. The current dividend yield is 1.58% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $37.98. The current yield is 24% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

If you take out the last 4 years of no dividends, the historical median dividend yield is 1.45%. The current dividend yield is 1.58% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $37.98. The current dividend yield is 9% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.38%. The current dividend yield is 1.58% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $37.98. The current yield is 15% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

It I take off the 4 years of no dividends, that is years 1 to 6 of the 10 year dividend median yield, I get a yield of 1.69%. This is a value 6% below the current dividend yield. If I use the 10 years prior to 2017 (when dividends were cancelled) I get a 10 year dividend yield of 1.68%, a value also 6% below the current dividend yield. These stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.74. The current P/S Ratio is 3.00 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $545M, Revenue per Share of $12.68 and a stock price of $37.98. The current ratio is 19.9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It almost cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The P/S Ratio test says the stock price is reasonable and almost cheap. Most the dividend testing says the stock price is reasonable and above the below the median. Most of the rest of the testing is showing a reasonable stock price.

Last year I said that the results of stock price testing were that the stock price was probably cheap. The P/S Ratio testing and the P/B Ratio testing says this. The P/E Ratio says it is reasonable and below the median with the P/GP Ratio testing show the stock as cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4) and Hold (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $51.57. This implies a total return of 37.36% with 35.78% from capital gains and 1.58% from dividends based on a stock price of $37.98.

When I looked at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (4) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus was $38.14. That implied a total return of 18.41%, all from capital gains based on a stock price of $32.21. What happened was a move to a stock price of $37.98 and so a total return of 17.91%. So, they were pretty accurate.

It is not well followed on Stock Chase. Some think the stock price could go higher but worry about the effect of higher interest rates. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks the stock is cheap, but worry about rising interest rates. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool reviews this stock and thinks it is still attractive. The company released a Press Release on the fourth quarterly results. A report from Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance talk about who owns shares in this company. They have no warning signs for this company.

Home Capital Group Inc is a specialty finance company that offers residential and commercial mortgage lending, securitization of insured mortgage products, consumer lending, and credit card services. The company also offers deposits via brokers and financial planners, and through its direct-to-consumer deposit brand, Oaken Financial. Its web site is here Home Capital Group .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 16, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend All-Stars 2022.... learn more on Tuesday, March 15, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Bombardier Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial stock. The stock price would seem to be on the expensive side. Any purchase of this company is highly speculative. Debt Ratios are awful. However, some analysts do see a good future with this company just making planes. See my spreadsheet on Bombardier Inc .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price would seem to be relatively expensive at this point. I can only really do a P/S Ratio test. This also implies that the company is not doing well. A number of analysts feel that the company does have a future just building planes. However, any purchase of this company is highly speculative.

I do not own this stock of Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF). The buying of this stock was part of my early foray into industrial stocks in 1987. Up until 2001, I was making some 35% return per annum on this stock. When the stock first dropped in 2002, I had still made some 28% return per annum on this stock. Even by the lowest point in 2005, I had made some 13% per annum on this stock. By that time, it seemed to be turning itself around, so I did not sell. I lost hope by 2017, so I sold. I made 11.08% per year.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they made a profit because of income from discontinued operations. At one time this was a great stock and I owned it. I did make money on it and have not owned it for quite some time now.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $102.82 you would have bought 247 shares at $4.06 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $74.96 in dividends. The stock would be worth $414.95. Your total return would have been $489.92.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$4.06	$1,002.82	247	10	$74.96	$414.96	$489.92

This stock did pay dividend in the past. I have data back to 1987 and from 1987 to 2004, there were dividends. Also, the company paid dividends between 2009 and 2014. There have been no dividends since 2009 and no current hope of any.

Debt Ratios are awful. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 2.24. It is better than last year of 8.91. However, the long term debt is still over twice the value of the company. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 1.15. The Debt Ratio is negative because there is a negative book value. This mean that in bankruptcy there would not be enough money to even pay outstanding debts. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios cannot be calculated because the book value is negative.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	0.00%	-4.90%	-4.90%	0.00%
2011	10	0.00%	-7.60%	-8.45%	0.85%
2006	15	0.00%	-4.99%	-6.33%	1.34%
2001	20	0.00%	-9.56%	-10.28%	0.72%
1996	25	0.00%	-3.70%	-5.27%	1.57%
1991	30	0.00%	2.31%	-0.80%	3.11%
1986	35	0.00%	4.83%	1.01%	3.81%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2021 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	0.00%	-3.89%	-3.89%	0.00%
2011	10	0.00%	-9.55%	-10.38%	0.83%
2006	15	0.00%	-5.28%	-6.81%	1.53%
2001	20	0.00%	-8.27%	-9.23%	0.95%
1996	25	0.00%	-3.37%	-5.05%	1.68%
1991	30	0.00%	1.82%	-1.07%	2.89%
1989	32	0.00%	6.09%	1.56%	4.54%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are all negative. The corresponding 10 year and historical P/E Ratios are also negative. We can do no testing with the P/E Ratios.

I get a Graham Price of $0. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are all $0. There have been no positive earnings between 2014 and the Book Value has been negative since 2014 and is still negative, the Graham Price cannot be calculated because there isn’t one.

I cannot calculate a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio because the Book Value is negative. So, we cannot do a P/B Ratio test.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.79. The current P/CF Ratio is 52.50 based on Cash Flow per Share for 2022 of $0.02 and a stock price of $1.33. The current ratio is 673% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.79. The 2023 P/CF Ratio is 6.18 based on Cash Flow per Share for 2023 of $0.17 and a stock price of $1.33. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

There have not been any dividends paid for some time, so no dividend yield test can be done.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.30. The current P/S Ratio is 0.38 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $6,650M, Revenue per Share of $2.79 and a stock price of $1.33. The current ratio is 26% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. This is because of the results of P/S testing, which is the only clean test. The results of a forward P/CF Ratio test are that the stock price is reasonable.

Last year the results of stock price testing were that the stock price was probably cheap. There is not much testing that can be done on this stock. However, the P/S Ratio says the stock price is cheap and my second P/CF Ratio test says the same thing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (7), Hold (4) and Underperform (2). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $2.41 CDN$ ($1.89 US$). This implies a total return of 81.18%, all from capital gains based on a current price of $1.33.

When I looked at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), Hold (8), Underperform (2) and Sell (2). So, the recommendations are all over the place. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $0.75CDN$ ($0.59 US$). This implies a total return of 6.8% all from capital gains based on a stock price $0.54. What happened was a price move to $1.33 and a total return of 146.30% all from capital gains.

Analysts say on Stock Chase that it could be a strong performer, but they are worried about the debt level. Vineet Kulkarni on Motley Fool says the company has come a long way since its near-bankruptcy and it now cheap. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says the company trades below its fair value. The company reports on their fourth quarter on Globe Newswire . A Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance talks about the recent gain on this stock. They list one warning sign of a negative shareholders equity.

Bombardier Inc is engaged in the manufacture of business aircraft. It designs, manufactures, markets, and provides aftermarket support for Learjet, Challenger, and Global business jets, spanning from the light to large categories; designs manufacture, and provides aftermarket support for a broad portfolio of commercial aircraft in the 50- to 100-seat categories. Its web site is here Bombardier Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC-HMCBF) ... learn more on Monday, March 14, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Emera Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The price is probably expensive, although it might still be in the reasonable ranges. It has a good yield of 4.37%. It does have a heavy debt load, which most utility do. It is probably paying more than it can afford in dividends (See below on DPR). See my spreadsheet on Emera Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price is probably expensive, but it would still be in the reasonable ranges. I think that the company is good and probably quite safe. I intend to continue to hold my shares. However, it does have a heavy debt load. Sometimes companies have gotten into trouble in recessions because of a heavy debt load. On the other hand, heavy debt load is what most utilities have.

I own this stock of Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA). I found this company in Mike Higg’s site. Mike’s site has a spreadsheet showing Dividend Paying Canadian Growth stocks. I first bought this stock in 2005, as I wanted to buy something for my Locked in RRSP. I think that this was an appropriate stock and has good value. I was using up excess cash in my account.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that Emera is paying a higher and higher portion of earnings in dividends. Last year analysts expected this to improve. Again, this year analysts expect improvement. For example, the Dividend Payout Ratio for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is 116%. Analysts expect the DPR for AFFO to be 62% in 2022. Last year analyst expected the DPR for AFFO to be 70% in 2021, but it came in at 116%.

What the company says in its annual statement about dividend growth and Dividend Payout Ratios: Emera has provided annual dividend growth guidance of four to five per cent through 2024. The Company targets a long-term dividend payout ratio of adjusted net income of 70 to 75 per cent and, while the payout ratio is likely to exceed that target through and beyond the forecast period, it is expected to return to that range over time.

I have done well with this stock. My total return over the almost 17 years I have held this stock is 12.12% per year with 7.22% from capital gains and 4.90% from dividends. This is a good return.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1024.24 you would have bought 31 shares at $33.04 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $612.17in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,959.82. Your total return would have been $2,571.99.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$33.04	$1,024.24	31	10	$612.17	$1,959.82	$2,571.99

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.37%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 4.80%, 4.45% and 4.77%. The current dividend increases are low (below 8%) at 5.24% per year over the past 5 years. The most recent increase was in in 2021 and it was for 3.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high but are expected to improve. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 130% with 5 year coverage at 92.5%. Analyst expect the DPR for EPS to be 87.5% this year and then decline to 85% in 2023. The DPR for Adjusted EPS for 2021 is 91.6% with 5 year coverage at 95.9%. Analysts expect this DPR to be 86% in 2022. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2022 is 50% with 5 year coverage at 41%. I like this DPR to be at 40% or less. Analysts expect he DPR or CFPS to be 36% in 2022. According to Morningstar the Free Cash Flow is negative and is expected to be so in the near future. The WSJ also says that the FCF is negative.

The company has a lot of debt and debt ratios that are not good, but utilities usually do have a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.86 and is fine. It used to be higher. The Liquidity Ratio is very low at 0.6 and if you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is still too low at 0.75. If this ratio is less than 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Unfortunately, the Liquidity Ratio has always been too low. However, if you look at Assets/Current Liabilities Ratio it is quite good at 7.02. The Debt Ratio is also too low at 1.42 and I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 3.94 and 2.77. I prefer them to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	5.24%	11.42%	6.85%	4.57%
2011	10	6.97%	11.04%	6.70%	4.34%
2006	15	7.34%	11.40%	7.10%	4.30%
2001	20	5.70%	11.25%	6.89%	4.36%
1996	25	4.79%	10.45%	6.11%	4.33%
1992	29	4.50%	11.25%	6.30%	4.95%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.56, 18.37 and 21.17. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.61, 18.81 and 20.62. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.41, 15.36 and 17.08. The current P/E Ratio is 19.88 based on a stock price of $60.63 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $3.05. The current ratio is between the median and high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The company also gives an Adjusted EPS. Adjusted EPS exclude special items to get at what the real EPS should be. The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.58, 19.25 and 22.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.88, 17.12 and 19.91. The current P/Adj EPS is 19.62. The current P/Adj EPS Ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $82.15. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.11, 1.26 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.27 based on a stock price of $60.63. The current ratio is between the median and high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.66. The current P/B Ratio is 1.82 based on a stock price of $60.63 and Book Value of $10,116M and Book Value per Share of $33.30. The current ratio is 9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

There is also an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2022. The P/B Ratio for 2022 is 1.76 based on a Book Value per Share estimate for 2022 of 34.40, Book Value of $8,981M and a stock price of $60.63. This ratio is 6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.24. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.28 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $7.32, Book Value of $1,911M and a stock price of $60.63. The current ratio is 0.5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.77%. The current dividend yield is 4.37% based on dividends of $2.65 and a stock price of $60.63. The current dividend yield is 8% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.45%. The current dividend yield is 4.37% based on dividends of $2.65 and a stock price of $60.63. The current dividend yield is 2% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.08. The current P/S Ratio is 2.48 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $6,377M, Revenue per Share of $24.43 and a stock price of $60.63. The current ratio is 19% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. It is almost expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive, but might still be in a reasonableness range. The dividend yield test is showing the stock price as reasonable but above the median. However, the P/S Ratio testing does not confirm this. Most of the other tests are showing the stock price as reasonable, but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4), Hold (10), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $61.97. This implies a total return of 6.58% with 2.21% from capital gains and 4.37% from dividends based on a stock price of $60.63.

When I looked at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Strong Buy (3), Buy (7), Hold (6) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $58.62. This implies a total return of 17.61% with 4.90% from dividends and 12.71% from capital gains based on a stock price of $52.01. What happened was a total return of 21.47% with 16.57% from capital gains and 4.90% from dividends based on a stock price of $52.01.

What I said last year about the results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Both the dividend yield tests show the stock price is reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test does not confirm this, but the difference is only 5% above the 10 year median ratio. Most of the other tests, except the P/E Ratio test show the stock price as reasonable and below the median.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this company, but one feels it is overpriced. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks this stock with a yield of 4.2% will earn you a good return on your capital. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this stock is recession proof. See the company’s Press Release on its fourth quarter. A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo finance thinks this stock has an intrinsic value of $78.98 CDN$. They give 4 warnings of Interest payments are not well covered by earnings, Dividend of 4.29% is not well covered by earnings, Profit margins (8.9%) are lower than last year (17%) and Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Emera is a geographically diverse energy and services company investing in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution as well as gas transmission and utility energy services. Emera has operations throughout North America and the Caribbean countries. Its web site is here Emera Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) ... learn more on Friday, March 11, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy March 2022.... learn more on Thursday, March 10, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

IGM Financial Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. Stock price is probably reasonable. They will probably grow the dividends again in the future. Analysts think this will happen in the near future, but they have thought that before. See my spreadsheet on IGM Financial Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably reasonable. I would not currently buy this stock because I like dividend growth stocks and this is not one. However, if you are holding it, it is giving off a high yield. Some analysts like safe and high yielding stocks which this probably is. I prefer a low to median yield and dividend growth.

I do not own this stock of IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF). I am following this stock because I used to own this stock. The stock was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks and on the other Dividend lists at that time. I sold with a very low return in 2011.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the bad thing about this stock is lack of dividend growth. There is has been no dividend growth since 2013. The good thing is the high dividend yield.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1105.75 you would have bought 25 shares at $41.60 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $555 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,140.50. Your total return would have been $1,695.50.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$41.60	$1,105.75	25	10	$555.00	$1,140.50	$1,695.50

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth flat. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6%) at 5.03%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also good at 6.00% and 5.77%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate at 3.59%. The dividends stopped growing in 2013. However, the analysts now think that dividends will again be raised in 2023. However, analysts also thought that in 2020 and it did not happen. Of course, we had a pandemic in the meantime.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are a little high. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 55% with 5 year coverage at 70%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2021 was 55% with 5 year coverage at 72%. These rates are too high and I prefer them to be at 40% or less. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 is 62% with 5 year coverage at 78%.

Debt Ratios are fine. This is a financial stock, so I also look at if they have assets to cover investing liabilities. The Liabilities/Covering Assets Ratio is good at 0.63. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is also good 0.19. Although the Liquidity Ratio is not important for financials, I did calculate it to be 2.60 and that is good. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.58. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.72 and 1.72 and are fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	0.00%	9.13%	3.61%	5.51%
2011	10	0.69%	5.25%	0.31%	4.94%
2006	15	2.58%	3.97%	-0.49%	4.46%
2001	20	5.79%	8.42%	2.99%	5.43%
1996	25	9.19%	10.68%	4.99%	5.69%
1991	30	10.94%	13.73%	7.42%	6.31%
1990	31	10.57%	16.50%	8.96%	7.53%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.53, 11.38 and 12.80. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.35, 12.42 and 14.71. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.45, 5.36 and 17.63. The current ratio is 10.05 based on a stock price of $44.72 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $4.45. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $45.01. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.07 and 1.27. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.99 based on a stock price of $44.72. The current ratio is between the low and median values of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.11. The current P/B Ratio is 2.21 based on a Book Value of $4,842M, Book Value per Share 20.24 and a stock price of $44.72. The current P/B Ratio is 5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

There is an analyst estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2022. With the Value per Share estimate I get a P/B Ratio of 1.53 based on the Book Value per Share estimate for 2022 is $29.30 Book Value of $7012M and Stock price of $44.72. This P/B Ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. With the estimates for BVPS they give older BVPS and I agree with the ones prior to 2019 and they do not give a BVPS for 2021.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.50. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.59 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate of $3.86, Cash Flow of $924M and a stock price of $44.72. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.59%. The current dividend yield is 5.03% based on a stock price of $44.72 and dividends of $2.25. The current dividend yield is 40% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.77%. The current dividend yield is 5.03% based on a stock price of $44.72 and dividends of $2.25. The current dividend yield is 6% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.02. The current P/S Ratio is 2.92 based on a stock price of $44.72, Revenue estimate for 2022 of $3,663M and Revenue per Share of $15.31. The current P/S Ratio is 3% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test shows this. However, dividend yield tests work better on dividend growth stocks. Testing shows the stock price from cheap to reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (2), Hold (3) and Underperform (1). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $55.50. This implies a total return of 29.14% with 24.11% from capital gains and 5.03% from dividends based on a stock price of $44.72.

When I looked at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Strong Buy (2), Buy (1), Hold (5), and Underperform (1). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus was $38.83. This implied a total return of 16.90% with 10.50% from capital gains and 6.40% from dividends based on a stock price of $35.14. What happened was a total return of 33.60% with 27.26% from capital gains and 6.40% from dividends based on the stock price increasing from $35.14 to $44.72. So, results were underestimated.

What I said last year was that the results of stock price testing were that the stock price is probably cheap. The historical dividend yield test is showing the stock price as cheap and that is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. However, the 10 year dividend yield test is showing as reasonable and below the median. This is because the stock price fell and the dividend payment has remained the same over the past few years.

On the analysts’ comments I can see on Stock Chase for this stock, the two recommendations for 2021 are buys. A site called Advisor’s Edge comments on this stock. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says invest for a passive income stream. . .

IGM Financial is the largest non-bank-affiliated asset manager in Canada. The firm is part of the Power Financial group of companies, which includes Great West Life, London Life, Canada Life, and Putnam Investments. IGM has two main operating divisions--asset management (operated through Mackenzie Investments) and wealth management (via its Investors Group Wealth Management and Investment Planning Counsel subsidiaries) -- that provide investment management products and services. Its web site is here IGM Financial Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TFI International Inc (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA) ... learn more. learn more on Wednesday, March 09, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks March 2022 .... learn more on Wednesday, March 08, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

TFI International Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price seems to be expensive. The stock price has been growing faster than earnings and dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on TFI International Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that at present this company is expensive. However, I still think it is a great company. However, it is best, for long term results to purchase companies at least at a reasonable price.

I own this stock of TFI International Inc (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF). The company has a combination of lowish dividend yield and good growth. The current dividends are 1.05% with a 10 year median of 2.37%. the 5 year dividend growth is 13% per year and the last dividend increase was 17.4%

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I have done very well with this stock. I have had it for almost 5 years now and I have made a total return of 41.86% per year with 39.53% from capital gains and 2.33% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 1992, $1001.07 you would have bought 381 shares at $1.47 per share. In December 2021, after 30 years you would have received $12,604.57 in dividends. The stock would be worth $96,613.47. Your total return would have been $109,268.14.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1010.10 you would have bought 78 shares at $12.95 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $601.75 in dividends. The stock would be worth $11,065.86. Your total return would have been $11,667.61.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$1.47	$1,001.07	381	30	$12,654.67	$96,613.47	$109,268.14
$12.95	$1,010.10	78	10	$601.75	$11,065.86	$11,667.61

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.05%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4%) ranges at 2.23%, 2.37% and 2.93%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 11% per year. The last dividend increase was good (15% and over) at 17%.

Dividends are now paid in US$. This started in the middle of 2021. Note also that this company used to be an income trust. When they were forced to become a corporation, they cut the dividend around 75%. A couple of years later they started to increase the dividends again. The yield is low because the stock price is growing a lot faster than dividends.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. Since the dividends were paid in CDN$ until 2021, I am using DPR in CDN$. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 13% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2021 is $8% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 is 15% with 5 year coverage at 21%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.12 and is good and low. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.83, but if you had in cash flow after dividends it is better at 1.37. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.63. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.59 and 1.59 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2021 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	11.36%	33.91%	32.32%	1.59%
2011	10	10.48%	29.21%	27.05%	2.16%
2006	15	-1.65%	19.52%	16.98%	2.54%
2001	20	0.11%	43.91%	21.47%	22.44%
1996	25		40.75%	24.68%	16.08%
1991	30		20.09%	16.45%	3.63%
1986	35		19.59%	16.23%	3.36%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2021 in US$. There is not as much data in US$ as in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	12.65%	35.41%	33.79%	1.62%
2011	10	8.07%	26.12%	24.15%	1.97%
2006	15	-2.20%	19.20%	16.39%	2.80%
2003	18	1.28%	22.52%	16.30%	6.22%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.89, 12.11 and 16.77. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.07, 12.12 and 17.31. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.45, 11.86 and 14.16. The current P/E Ratio is 16.64 based on a stock price of $130.89 and EPS estimate for $7.86. The current ratio is between the median and high median of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN

I get a Graham Price of $73.2. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.84, 1.17 and 1.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.78 based on a stock price of $130.89. The current ratio is above the 10 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.17. The current P/B Ratio is 4.30 based on Book Value of $2,220M, Book Value per Share of $23.90 and a stock price of $102.68. The current ratio is 97% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.97. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.43 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of 12.20, Cash Flow of $1,133M and a stock price of $102.68. The current ratio is 21% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.92%. The current dividend yield is 1.05% based on dividends of $1.38 CDN$ ($1.08 US$) and a stock price of $130.89. The current dividend yield is 64% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$. You will get a similar result in US$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.37%. The current dividend yield is 1.05% based on dividends of $1.38 CDN$ ($1.08 US$) and a stock price of $130.89. The current dividend yield is 56% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$. You will get a similar result in US$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.68. The current P/S Ratio is 1.12 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $8,527M, Revenue per Share of 491.79 and a stock price of $102.68. The current ration if 65% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. Both the dividend yield tests and the P/S Ratio test says this. All the other tests say this except for the P/E Ratio test.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (8), Buy (9) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price is $118.94. This implies a total return of 16.88% with 15.83% from capital gains and 1.05% from dividends based on a current price of $130.89.

Most of the analysts on Stock Chase really like this company. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool likes their fourth quarterly results and P/E Ratio. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool mentions their purchase of UPS. The company announces their fourth quarterly results on Globe Newswire. Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance discusses this stock. They list wo risks of a High Level of Debt and Large one-off items impacting financial results.

TFI International Inc is a transportation and logistics company domiciled in Canada. The company organizes itself into four segments: package and courier, less-than-truckload, truckload, and logistics. TFI International derives the majority of revenue domestically, followed by the United States. Its web site is here TFI International Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be IGM Financial Inc (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... learn more on Monday, March 7, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. The stock price is reasonable, but above the median. It is a small company and there above average in risk. Most years this company has been paying a special dividend as well as regular dividends. Special dividends vary each year. See my spreadsheet on Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable, but it is above the median. I am pleased with my investment in this company. However, note that this is rather a small company which is not much followed by analysts. It is therefore on the risky side. This stock is more suitable for registered accounts (RSP, RIF, TFSA) as the dividends are taxed as interest.

I own this stock of Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF). I saw this on company on the Canadian Dividend All-Star List. It has just recently started to pay dividends. It has only been around since 2012 and has good dividends. Dividends are good but are taxed as income.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done very well with this stock. My total return is 16.54% over the 4 year I have had this stock. I received 9.26% from capital gains and 7.28% from dividends. Since the payout is interest, this stock is best held in a TFSA or RSP account.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1009.82 you would have bought 102 shares at $9.90 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $835.88 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,433.10. Your total return would have been $2,268.98.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$9.90	$1,009.82	102	10	$835.88	$1,433.10	$2,268.98

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.36%. The 5 year median dividend yields are also good at 6.87%. The 8 year median dividend yields are also high (7% and above) at 7.09%. They have paid a special dividend in most years (a median of $0.05) which added an median of $0.45% to the yield. The dividends have been flat for the last 4 years. However, they give out special dividends each year and these special dividends vary each year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 93.9% with 5 year coverage at 99.5%. The thing is that this company usually pays a special dividend each year. The above includes the special dividends. The DPR for EPS for 2021 excluding the special dividends is 91.8% with 5 year coverage at 89.5%. The DPR for 2021 for Cash Flow per Share is 59% with 5 year coverage at 76%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 is 51% with 5 year coverage at 64%. I think because of their business they can afford to pay out high DPRs. I looked at the TD Report and they also support this position.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.30 and is low and good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 213.09 and very high. The Debt Ratio is also high at 2.54. For Liquidity Ratio and Debt Ratios, the higher the better. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2021 are low and good at 1.65 and 0.65.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 12 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	0.95%	10.36%	2.95%	7.41%
2011	10	2.59%	10.30%	3.56%	6.74%
2009	12		8.15%	3.50%	4.65%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.63, 13.85 and 15.06. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.86, 12.76 and 13.72. The current P/E Ratio is 14.02 based on a stock price of $14.16 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $1.01. The current ratio is above the 10 year high median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $15.80. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 0.80, and 0.86. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.90 based on a stock price of $14.16. The current ratio is above the 10 year high median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.13. The current P/B Ratio is 1.29 based on a stock price of 14.16, Book Value of $470M and a Book Value per Share of $10.98. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. I have analysts Book Value per Share also, but this gives a P/B Ratio of 1.29, so the results are the same as above.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 11.67. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.93 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $67.9M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.59 and a stock price of $14.16. The current ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an 8 year and historical median dividend yield of 7.09%. The current dividend yield is 6.36% based on a stock price of $14.16 and Dividends of $0.90. The current dividend yield is lower than the 8 year median dividend yield by 10%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 8.11. The current P/S Ratio is 9.05 based on a stock price of 14.16, Revenue estimate for 2022 of $67.4M, and Revenue per Share of $1.57. The current ratio is 11% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but above the median. Both the dividend yield test and the P/S Ratio test show the stock price as reasonable but above the median. The rest of the testing shows the stock price as either cheap or expensive.

Last year I said that the results of stock price testing were that the stock price is probably reasonable. Both the dividend yield test and the P/S Ratio test show the stock price as reasonable but above the median, but they are both above the median by less than 3%. All the tests seem to say the same thing, that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $15.33. This implies a total return of 14.62% with 8.26% from capital gains and 6.36% from dividends based on a stock price of $14.16.

When I looked at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Strong Buy (1) and Buy (2). The consensus was a Buy. The 12 month price consensus was $13.77. This implies a total return of 13.54% with 6.58% from capital gains and 6.97% from dividends based on a stock price of 12.92. What happened was a stock price of $14.16 and a total return of 16.57% with 9.60% from capital gains and 6.97% from dividends.

Stock Chase has not recommendations on this stock. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool thinks this company is selling at an attractive price with a good yield. Vishesh Raisinghani on Motley Fool thinks it is passive-income opportunity. The company talks about fourth quarter results on Newsfile via Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance has an interesting take on dividends. However, the company has not cut their dividends. SWS might be referring to the exchange rate as the dividends are paid in CDN$ or maybe to special dividends which change each year.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp is a non-banking finance company providing residential and commercial mortgages that lends funds in major urban centres in Canada where the stability and liquidity of real estate are high. The company generates its revenue from mortgage interest and fees. Its web site is here Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TFI International Inc (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF) ... learn more on Friday, March 4, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Banks and Ratios 3.... learn more on Thursday, March 3, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Russel Metals Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. The stock price seems reasonable at this time. They have good debt ratios. Analysts think that earnings are going to go down over the short term, but they were quite wrong about estimates for 2021 for Revenue and EPS. See my spreadsheet on Russel Metals Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is currently reasonable. Analysts are right about the dividend yield being good. Personally, I think dividend growth companies that have much lower yields. This company has raised it dividends only 11 times in the past 31 years. It has decreased by 4 times over this period. Also, analysts were off by a lot with their estimates for Revenue and EPS for 2021. They estimated Revenue of $3,110M and EPS of $1.77. Revenue was $4,209M and EPS was $6.89. Earnings seems to be high because of higher Revenue and lower relative cost to Revenue of Cost of Materials.

I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time. However, I should keep a watch on this stock as it has had some troubles in the past.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I have had a poor return from this stock. My total return per year over the almost 14 year I have held the stock is 6.56% with 1.70% from capital gains and 4.86% from dividends.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth is currently non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.81%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.87%, 5.75% and 5.10%. The dividends have gone up in the past, but they have been 2015 and analysts do not expect to see any raise of dividends in the near future.

I seemed to have invested in this stock at the wrong time. The worse total return for this stock when looked at every five years is year 15 with a total return of 6.44%.

If you had invested in this company in December 2011, $1008.90 you would have bought 45 shares at $22.42 per share. In December 2021, after 10 years you would have received $668.25 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,513.35. Your total return would have been $2,181.60.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$22.42	$1,008.90	45	10	$668.25	$1,513.35	$2,181.60

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 22% with 5 year coverage at 54%. The DPR for EPS is expected to be 48% in 2022. The CPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2021 is 15% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for 2021 for Free Cash Flow is 34% with 5 year coverage at 61%. The DPR for FCF for 2022 is expected to be 39%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt /Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is low and good at 0.14. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is high and good at 2.69. The Debt Ratio is high and good at 2.17. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.85 and 0.85.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 31 to the end of 2021. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2016	5	0.00%	11.00%	5.62%	5.37%
2011	10	2.83%	9.74%	4.14%	5.60%
2006	15	-0.34%	6.44%	1.55%	4.89%
2001	20	5.87%	26.18%	11.82%	14.36%
1996	25	9.04%	17.39%	9.80%	7.59%
1991	30	6.99%	8.83%	5.19%	3.65%
1990	31	4.85%	9.41%	5.62%	3.79%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.00, 13.35 and 14.71. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.39, 15.90 and 18.41. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.92, 9.93 and 14.71. The current P/E Ratio is 9.91 based on a stock price of $31.60 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $3.19. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $37.68. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.95, 1.13 and 1.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.84 based on a stock price of $31.60. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.73. The current P/B Ratio is 1.60 based on a Book Value of $1,248M, Book Value per Share of $19.78 and a stock price of $31.60. The current ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Analysts are putting out an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2022. This Book Value per Share estimate for 2022 is $21.70, Book Value is $1,369M and with a stock price of $31.60, the P/B Ratio would be 1.46. This ratio is 16% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.89. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.38 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $3.37, Cash Flow of $213M and a stock price of $31.60. The current ratio is 36% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.10%. The current dividend yield is 4.81% based on a stock price of $31.60 and dividends of $1.52. The current ratio is 6% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.75%. The current dividend yield is 4.81% based on a stock price of $31.60 and dividends of $1.52. The current ratio is 16% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.52. The current P/S Ratio is 0.49 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $4,043M, Revenue per Share of $64.07 and a stock price of $31.60. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests are pointing to a reasonable price, but above the median. The P/S Ratio test is point to a reasonable price and below the median. Except for the P/CF Ratio test, the other tests are showing a reasonable or cheap price. The problem with the dividend yield tests are the flat dividends. This test works before for dividend growth stock.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (4), and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $39.54. This implies a total return of 29.94% with 25.13% from capital gains and 4.81% from dividends based on a current stock price of $31.60.

When I looked at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Buy (5) and Hold (2) recommendations. The consensus was Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus was $26.86. This implied a total return of 14.53% with 8.39% from capital gains and 6.13% from dividends based on a stock price of $24.78. What happened was a movement in stock price from $24.78 to $31.60. This was a total return of 33.65% with 27.52% from capital gains and 6.13% from dividends.

Last year I said that based on the results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this company but note that it is a cyclical business. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool likes the high dividend yield. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool thinks this stock is cheap with a good dividend. The company has published a news release in PDF format about their fourth quarterly results. A Simply Wall Street Report on Yahoo Finance talks about the risk of a declining EPS over the short term.

Russel Metals Inc is a Canada-based metal distribution company. The company conducts business primarily through three metals distribution segments: metals service centers; energy products; and steel distributors. The company generates all of its revenue from the North American market. Its web site is here Russel Metals Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 2, 2022 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Tyler Cowen Interview.... learn more on Tuesday, March 1, 2022 around 5 pm.

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