Superior Plus Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. The stock price is probably on the expensive side. Stock Price testing was hampered by the volatility of Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow, which analysts expect to decline in the near future. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. See my spreadsheet on Superior Plus Corp.

I do not own this stock of Superior Plus Corp (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF). I started to follow this stock as it was an income trust company that was talked about in the Money Reporter from MPL Communications. This company changed to a corporation from Unit Trust (TSX-SPF.UN) in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed Revenue estimate for 2021 and 2022 have been decreased because of drop in Revenue for 2020. Last year, revenue estimate for 2020 was $2,587M, but it came in at 2,394M. Last year analysts estimated Revenue for 2021 and 2022 at $2,795M and $2,755M. Now estimate for 2021 and 2022 are 2,175M and $2,312M. Even for 2023 it is lower than what was expected before at just $2,508M.

Analysts also moved EPS down this year. Last year the EPS for 2021 was given as $0.77. Now analyst say the EPS for 2021 is expected to be $0.40. However, for EPS, the first Quarter was a good one. The last 12 month EPS to the end of March 31, 2021 is $0.77.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth flat. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.62%. The 5, and 10 year median dividend yields are good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.30% and 6.22%. The historical dividend yield is high (7% and higher) at 9.20%. This company used to be an income trust and as such high dividend payouts. They became a corporation at 2009, but dividend rates did not fall until 2011. The historical dividend yield since 2009 is in the good range at 6.51%. After the fall of the dividends because of the switch to a corporation, there was one dividend increase in 2015 and the dividends have been flat ever since.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving and analyst expect this to happen. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 167% with 5 year coverage at 127%. Analysts expect some improvement by 2022 with a DPR going to around 86%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 24% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is $52% with 5 year coverage at 70%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.73. It moves to 0.59 currently because of a rise in the stock price. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.04. If you added in cash flow after dividends, it is 1.59 and fine. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is fine at 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.00%	8.90%	2.51%	6.39%
2010	10	-7.79%	7.51%	0.97%	6.54%
2005	15	-7.74%	1.71%	-4.29%	6.00%
2000	20	-3.20%	9.63%	-1.34%	10.97%
1996	24	-1.36%	10.92%	-0.49%	11.41%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.24, 5.34 and 6.43. the corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.56, 12.07 and 14.58. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.98, 15.73 and 19.53. The current P/E Ratio is 38.98 based on a 15.59 and EPS estimate of $.40. The current ratio is above the 10 year high median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, all the ratios are negatively affected by earning losses that produce negative P/E Ratios. They are also affected by high P/E Ratios because of some years of very low earnings. Earnings for this stock are quite volatile also. The P/E Ratio for 2022 is better with a P/E Ratio of 18.56 based on a stock price of $15.59 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $0.84. This testing also says that the stock price is relatively expensive because the P/E is higher than the 10 year high median ratio.

The P/E Ratio for 2023 is 12.37. This is based on a stock price of $15.59 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.26. This testing says that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median because the P/E Ratio is between the median and high 10 year median ratios. However, the further out an estimate is from today’s date, the less trustworthy it is. This is not a good test for assessing the current stock price.

I get a Graham Price of $8.20. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.90, 1.14 and 1.42. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.90. The current ratio is above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Unfortunately, the Graham Price calculations are negatively affected by earnings losses and very low earnings. This test is probably also not a good one for assessing the current stock price.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.30. The current P/B Ratio is 2.09 based on a stock price of $15.59, Book Value of $1314M and Book Value per Share of $7.47. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.82. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.68 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $1.61. The current ratio is 42% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, the estimate for 2021 suggests a 33% drop in CFPS for 2021 and you have to wonder about this. Also, CFPS for this stock is volatile. The P/CF Ratio for 2022 is lower at 7.99 based on an CFPS estimate for 2022 of $1.95. This ratio is 17% above the 10 year median ratio and points to a stock price that is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The P/CF Ratio for 2023 is even lower at 5.75 with a CFPS estimate of 2.71. This ratio is 16% below the 10 year median ratio. It points to a stock price that is relatively reasonable and below the median. However, this estimate is quite far out from today’s date and therefore could be considered less trustworthy.

I get an historical median dividend yield since 2009 of 6.51. The current dividend yield is 4.62% based on a dividend of $0.72 and a stock price of $15.59. The current dividend yield is 29% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive. It is 2009 when this company changed from an income trust to a corporation. Corporations have much lower dividends and dividend yields than Income Trust companies. Another problem with the testing is that the dividend has remained flat since 2015. This is not a good test for testing the current stock price.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.22. The current dividend yield is 4.62% based on a dividend of $0.72 and a stock price of $15.59. The current dividend yield is 26% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem with the testing is that the dividend has remained flat since 2015.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.60. The current P/S ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $15.59, Revenue estimate for 2021 of $2,175M and Revenue per Share of $12.36. The current P/S Ratio is 109% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Analysts expect a drop in Revenue in 2021 of 9%.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The problem with testing the stock price on this stock is that there is volatility in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow. The stock price has also been volatile. If you notice in the Total Return chart above, shareholders who have held this stock for 15 years have a Total Return of just 1.71% per year. The cleanest test is the P/B Ratio test and it shows that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. However, you cannot ignore the fact that analysts are suggesting that Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow are expected to go down and that gives you a stock price that is considered current expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably relatively expensive at present until the company does better. This is not a dividend growth company. Dividends have either declined or been flat for a long time and dividends have been a large part of the past returns. Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow has always been volatile. The return on this stock does not seem to pay you for the risk of volatility.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (4) and Hold (8). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $16.31. This implies a total return of 9.24% with 4.62% from capital gains and 4.62% from dividends.

Last year analysts liked this stock on Stock Chase. There are no entries for 2021. Robin Brown on Motley Fool says even though this stock has gone up a lot lately, it still has a very good dividend yield. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and lists 3 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this company’s characteristics does lead to outstanding dividend performance. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the company’s high debt level and low ROE is not appealing to him. I agree.

Superior Plus is a Canadian-based company that distributes energy and specialty chemicals. The company is organized into three business segments: Canadian propane distribution, U.S. propane distribution, and specialty chemicals. The company's propane distribution segments together generate the vast majority of revenue, and more than half of the total company revenue is earned in the United States. Its web site is here Superior Plus Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BADFF) ... learn more on Friday, August 13, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about P/E Ratio and Stock Price.... learn more on Thursday, August 12, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Evertz Technologies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. The stock price is relatively cheap. They have stop growing their dividends. Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. The Debt Ratios are good and this is important for small companies. There is lots of insider ownership. See my spreadsheet on Evertz Technologies.

I own this stock of Evertz Technologies Ltd (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF). I got the idea to investigate this stock from a G&M Article. It looked like something I might want to try out. This stock came up in a stock screen filter article that was looking for reliable dividend payers. That is companies that have reliable profits big enough to comfortably cover their dividend payments. The financial year end April 30 each year. The year end financial that I looked at was for April 30, 2021.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I did better on this stock than for last year. To the end of July last year my Total Return was 1.76%, with a capital loss of 4.63% and 7.39% from dividends. The total return to July of 2021 is 4.33% with a capital loss of 2.11% and 6.44% from dividends. There is lots of insider ownership. Although INK has not been recently updated, the report shows both the CEO and Chairman owning some 31% each of this company.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.29%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields were moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.40%, 4.10% and 4.00%. The dividends were cut in the 2021 Financial year because of uncertainty about the pandemic. Later, in the same financial year, the dividends were restored to their original amount of $0.72. So, the 5 year growth in dividends to date is really 0.00%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need to be improved. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 98% with 5 year coverage at 133%. Analysts expect this to go lower in the near future. The DPR for CFPS for 2021 is 65% with 5 year coverage at 89%. This is far to high. Any DPR for CFPS should be at 40% or lower. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 is 45% with 5 year coverage at 103%.

Debt Ratios are good and it is wise for small caps to have good debt ratios. There is Long Term Debt but the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.00 because this debt is so low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 2.61. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is 2.88. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2021 are 1.53 and 0.53.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 14 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	-5.59%	1.47%	-5.45%	6.93%
2010	10	4.14%	3.63%	-2.70%	6.33%
2007	14	7.94%	5.24%	-0.20%	5.44%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.10, 17.77 and 21.33. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.86, 17.74 and 21.20. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.51, 17.72 and 20.36. The current P/E Ratio is 16.40 based on a stock price of $13.61 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $0.83. The current ratio is between the low and median 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $8.46. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41, 1.67 and 1.93. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.61 based on a stock price of $13.61. The current ratio is between the low and median 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.54. The current P/B Ratio is 3.55 based on a stock price of $13.61, Book Value of $293M and Book Value per Share of $3.84. The current ratio is 0.15% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.87. The current P/CF Ratio is 15.83 based on a stock price of $13.61, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $0.86, and Cash Flow of $65.6M. This ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above median.

I notice that analysts expect the CFPS for 2022 to drop by 35% from 2021. However, the 2023 CFPS is at a more expected level of $1.27. The P/CF Ratio for 2023 is 10.72 based on the CFPS estimate of $1.27, Cash Flow of $96.9 and a stock price of $13.61. This P/CF Ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.00%. The current dividend yield is 5.29% based on a dividend of $0.72 and a stock price of $13.61. The current dividend yield is 32% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.10%. The current dividend yield is 5.29% based on a dividend of $0.72 and a stock price of $13.61. The current dividend yield is 29% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.30. The current P/S Ratio is 2.52 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $412M, Revenue per Share of $5.40 and a stock price of $13.61. The current ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio testing. Other tests are coming up with a reasonable price which is above and below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The current stock price would seem to be reasonable. I plan to keep the shares I have but not buy any more at the present time. It maybe on the cheap side, but it has not performed for me as well as I expected. I was in a trading range since late 2008 to March 2020 and has not yet really recovered from March 2020.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Buy (2) recommendations. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $16.83. This implies a total return of $28.95%, with 23.66% from capital gains and 5.29% from dividends.

The most recent analyst comment is that it is time to sell some of this stock because it is near his expected high on Stock Chase. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks now is the time to buy this stock with its juicy dividend. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and lists two risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the problem with this company is that it is not growing its capital. I tend to agree. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company’s increasing dividends and decreasing earnings is a problem. I agree.

Evertz Technologies Ltd is a Canadian provider of telecommunications equipment and technology solutions to the television broadcast and new-media industries. Evertz equipment is used in the production, post-production, and transmission of television content. More than half of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States and Canada. Its web site is here Evertz Technologies.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Superior Plus Corp (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 11, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Retail Stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, August 10, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Andrew Peller Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumers. The stock price seems reasonable at the present time. The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine as are some the of the Debt Ratios are good, especially the Liquidity Ratio. See my spreadsheet on Andrew Peller Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF), but I used to. This stock was on Mike Higgs' dividend growth stock list. I owned this stock as Andres Wines Ltd between 1996 and 2000. The financial year for this company ends March 31 each year. So, the last financial year ended March 31, 2021.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that if I had held on to my 1996 shares, I would have made a total return of 11.16% per year with 7.83% from capital gains and 3.33% from dividends. However, this stock did not do much until around 2014, but it did start to increase their dividends in 2008. When I sold in 2000, my total return was 5.41% with 0.06% from capital gains and 5.35% from dividends. As with so many dividend paying stocks, I would not have lost money on it.

The first quarter for 2022 (June 30, 2021) was not a good one for the company. Basically, the Sales were down some $6M, with Gross Profit down some $5M and Admin Cost up some $5M and Net Earnings down some 9M.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate at (2% to 4% ranges) 2.85%. The 5 year median is low (below 2%) at 1.50%. The 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate at 2.15% and 3.59%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 7.9% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 9% and it was done in 2021.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2021 was 34% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for CFPS for 2021 was 15% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 was 200% with 5 year coverage at 91%. Not all sites agree on Free Cash Flow.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is fine at 0.37. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 4.13. This is very high. They no longer have Bank Debt. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is good at 1.96. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.04 and 1.04, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	7.85%	11.30%	8.94%	2.36%
2010	10	6.94%	16.68%	13.58%	3.10%
2005	15	7.61%	11.44%	8.83%	2.60%
2000	20	5.65%	15.06%	11.34%	3.72%
1995	25	4.81%	12.21%	8.88%	3.33%
1990	30	4.00%	13.38%	8.26%	5.12%
1985	35	3.63%	7.83%	5.25%	2.59%
1984	36	3.63%	8.92%	5.99%	2.93%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.87, 19.44 and 27.13. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.75, 15.90 and 19.34. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.45, 13.26 and 14.76. The current P/E Ratio 16.00 based on a stock price of $8.64 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $0.54. The current ratio is between the median and high 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $8.60. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 1.13 and 1.42. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.01 based on a stock price of $8.64. The current ratio is between the low and median 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current P/B Ratio is 1.42 based a Book Value of $265.6M, Book Value per Share of $6.08 and a stock price of $8.64. The current ratio is 16.7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.04. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.61 based on last 12 months Cash Flow of $25.77M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.59 and a stock price of $8.64. The current ratio is 4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.59%. The current dividend yield is 2.85% based on a stock price of $8.64 and dividends of $0.246. The current dividend yield is 21% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.15%. the current dividend yield is 2.85% based on a stock price of $8.64 and dividends of $0.246. The current dividend yield is 32% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.01. The current ratio is 0.94 based on a stock price of $8.64, Revenue estimate for 2022 of $399M and Revenue per Share of $9.16. The current ratio is 6.3% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests are showing the stock price as either cheap or expensive. The P/S Ratio test is showing the stock price as relatively reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test is probably the best. The rest of the testing is showing the stock price as reasonable and above or below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock price is probably reasonable. It is a dividend growth stock that has good returns for long term shareholders.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2). The consensus is a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $13.50. This implies a total return of 59.10% with 56.25% from capital gains and 2.85% from dividends.

Range of opinions on Stock Chase go from partial sell to top pick. Robin Brown on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a great Canadian value stock. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives the stock 3 rewards and 1 risk with 3 stars out of 5. A writer on Simply Wall Street complains that FCF does not cover dividends, but there are wildly different values calculated for FCF for this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes growing earnings and consistent dividend for this stock.

Andrew Peller Ltd is a wine producing company. It is engaged in the production and marketing of wine and spirit products in Canada. Some of the company's brands are Peller Estates, Trius Winery, Thirty Bench, Wayne Gretzky, Sandhill, Red Rooster, Calona Vineyards and many more. Its web site is here Andrew Peller Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Evertz Technologies (TSX-ET, OTC-EVTZF) ... learn more on Monday, August 9 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

BlackBerry Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Canadian Tech Stock. Stock price is testing on the expensive side. Analysts expect the stock price to drop over the next year. It has good debt ratios. Whether this stock will ever be a good investment again is anyone’s guess. See my spreadsheet on BlackBerry Ltd.

I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB). I bought this stock for capital gain. I first bought it in 1999 and then some more in 2000. I sold some in 2006 and 2007 to lock in some profit. I sold the rest of my stock in 2010.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed if I had held on to my shares, I would have owned them for 22 year and would have had a loss of 1% per year. I sold 11 years ago and made 20.18% per year profit.

This stock does not pay dividends and have never paid dividends.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.12. This is good and low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 2.34. This is quite high and good. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is 2.14 and this is also high and good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.87 and 0.87. These are low and good.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2020 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.00%	-8.05%	-8.05%	0.00%
2010	10	0.00%	-17.54%	-17.54%	0.00%
2005	15	0.00%	-7.13%	-7.13%	0.00%
2000	20	0.00%	-4.24%	-4.24%	0.00%
1997	23	0.00%	8.97%	8.97%	0.00%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2020 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.00%	-6.50%	-6.50%	0.00%
2010	10	0.00%	-19.52%	-19.52%	0.00%
2005	15	0.00%	-7.68%	-7.68%	0.00%
2000	20	0.00%	-3.43%	-3.43%	0.00%
1997	23	0.00%	8.76%	8.76%	0.00%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and therefore unusable. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and unusable. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.46, 15.44 and 20.76. The current P/E Ratio is negative because this company is not expected to make a profit in 2022. It is also not expected to make a profit in 2023. For 2024, an EPS of $0.08 ($0.06 US$) is expected and with a current stock price of $12.72, the current P/E Ratio is 168.99. This is a very high ratio because the EPS is very low. There is really not much testing available for the P/E Ratio. This testing is in CDN$.

I estimate a Graham Price of $2.34. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.70, 1.03 and 1.34. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.44 based on a stock price of $12.72. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$. However, there are so many years of earnings losses (7 of the last 10) that you have to wonder about the validity of this test.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 3.94 based on a Book Value of $1,827M, Book Value per Share o $2.57 and a stock price of $10.17. The current ratio is 127% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$ testing. The problem is a declining Book Value.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.34. The current P/B Ratio is 53.33 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $0.19, Cash Flow of $108M and a stock price of $10.17. The current ratio is 629% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$ testing.

This stock has no dividends and so dividend yield tests cannot be done.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.33. the current P/S Ratio is 7.36 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $782M, Revenue per Share of $1.38 and a stock price of $10.17. The current ratio is 216% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$ testing.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price seems to be coming up as expensive. It has had a recent rather wild ride in the share price. The P/S Ratio test says it is expensive because analyst expect a fall in Revenues. They also expect the stock price to fall in the next year. This is a rather negative outlook

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a very risky tech stock for investment purposes. Whether it will be a good future investment is anyone guess. I am not interested in investing in this stock at present. Analysts’ recommendations are rather negative.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (1), Underperform (3), and Sell (5). The consensus would be a Sell. Getting a consensus of sell is quite rare. The 12 month target price is $7.65 ($6.10 US$). This implies a total capital loss of 40%.

Analysts on Stock Chase have mixed views. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says multiple growth drivers could make BB a viable asset for your portfolio. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and list 1 risk. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the company is currently trading above its intrinsic value which he says is $11.64 CDN$. A writer on Simply Wall Street has a negative view of this stock because of current forecast, especially noted was the decline in Revenue .

BlackBerry Ltd, once known for being the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, is now exclusively a software provider with a stated goal of end-to-end secure communication for enterprises. The firm provides endpoint management and protection to enterprises, specializing in regulated industries like government, as well as embedded software to the automotive, medical, and industrial markets. Its web site is here BlackBerry Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF) ... learn more on Friday, August 6, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy August 2021.... learn more on Thursday, August 05, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Stingray Digital Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumers. Stock price seems to be cheap. This is a small new company and so is risky. There is room for improvement in debt ratios. Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. See my spreadsheet on Stingray Digital Group Inc.

I own this stock of Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE). I was following Newfoundland Capital Corp and Stingray Bought them out. Also, I read the blub on CEO, Eric Boyko. The site says he is an entrepreneur with nearly two decades of experience with start-ups. Mr. Boyko has extensive expertise in early stage business innovations.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it has recovered well from the low of March 2020. At this time last year, I had a big loss on this stock. Now the Total Return is 6.54% with 2.57% from capital gains and 3.97% from dividends. This is not great, but I expect to do better in the future.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth stopping. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 3.86%. The 5 and 6 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 2.82% and 2.52%. Dividends were growing at a good rate (15% and over) prior to 2020. Then increases stopped. An analyst thinks that the dividends will be increased in 2023. The reason for the lower 2024 dividend estimate is fewer analysts giving estimates. This occurs sometimes.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 49% an this is fine. The 5 year coverage is 138% and this is too high. However, going forward, DPR for EPS is expected to be 44% in 2022 and 49% in 2023. The DPR for CFPS for 2021 is 19% with 5 year coverage at 25%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 is 24% with 5 year coverage at 37%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2021 is 0.52. This is much better than last year when it was 1.05. The change is the recovery of the stock price. Debt has also gone down by 11%. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 0.75. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it is 1.37. This is still low. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2021 are 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 6 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	19.14%	4.98%	1.33%	3.66%
2014	6		1.43%	-1.58%	3.01%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.06, 31.03 and 42.67. The corresponding 6 year ratios are 19.67, 27.94 and 35.56. The current P/E Ratio 11.44 based on a stock price of $7.78 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $0.68. The current ratio is below the 6 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $7.56. The 7 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.82, 2.12 and 2.43. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.03 based on a stock price of $7.78. This current ratio is below the 7 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 6 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.25. The current P/B Ratio is 2.08 based on a Book Value of $274.7M, Book Value per Share of $3.73 and a stock price of $7.78. The current ratio is 7.6% below the 6 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 6 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.76. The current ratio is 5.33 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $1.46, Cash Flow of $107M and a stock price of $7.78. The current ratio is 50% below the 6 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical (6 years) median dividend yield of 2.52%. The current dividend yield is 3.86% based on dividends of $0.30 and a stock price of $7.78. The current dividend yield is 53% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 2.82%. The current dividend yield is 3.86% based on dividends of $0.30 and a stock price of $7.78. The current dividend yield is 37% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. I only have 6 year and 5 year periods to deal with on this stock.

The 6 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.05. The current P/S Ratio is 1.95 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $293M, Revenue per Share of $3.98 and a stock price of $7.78. The current ratio is 36% below the 6 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests show this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most other testing is showing this as cheap also.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable, if not cheap. I am still excited about this stock and expect to do well in the longer term. However, this is a young company and therefore risky.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (4). The consensus would be a Strong buy. The 12 months stock price target consensus is $9.33. This implies a total return of 23.78% with 19.92% from capital gains and 3.86% from dividends based on a current price of $7.78.

One analyst said that it is on his watch list on Stock Chase. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool says it is a current smart buy. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street list 2 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the company is taking some risks with its debt. A writer on Simply Wall Street. talks about the independent Chairman picking up more shares in the company.

Stingray Digital Group Inc is a music, media, and technology company. The company is a provider of curated direct-to-consumer and B2B services, including audio television channels, radio stations, SVOD content, 4K UHD television channels, karaoke products, digital signage, in-store music, and music apps. Its web site is here Stingray Digital Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 4, 2021 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks August 2021 .... learn more on Tuesday, August 3, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Loblaw Companies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Stock price may be reasonable, but at the high end of reasonable. Their Dividend Payout Ratios are good, but they could improve their debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Loblaw Companies Ltd .

I do not own this stock of Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF), but I used to. I owned it from 1996 to 2007. It was originally a great stock. I sold it in 2007 because it was having problems with its tech upgrade to its supply system and it did not seem that it would be fixed anytime soon. When I sold this, I bought Metro and I have been happy with this stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I sold this stock in 2007. They were having trouble with their tech upgrade to their supply system. The company had stopped raising the dividends. If I had kept my shares would probably had made a total return of 8.98% per year with 6.26% from capital gains and 2.72% from dividends. This is not a bad return. I like stocks that deliver at least 8% per year in Total Return.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.59%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also low at 1.82%, 1.88% and 1.30%. The dividend increases have been low (below 8%) since dividend increases were restarted in 2012. The dividends were increased by 5% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2020 and it was for 6.35%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 was 42% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 was 9% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 was 14% with 5 year coverage at 18%

Debt Ratios are fine but could be improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is good at 0.30. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 1.32. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is better and good at 1.86. The Debt Ratio is a little low at 1.45. I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher and it usually is. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 3.23 and 2.23. I prefer these to be below 3.00 and below 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	5.17%	1.01%	-0.79%	1.79%
2010	10	4.30%	6.61%	4.52%	2.09%
2005	15	2.85%	3.45%	0.72%	2.72%
2000	20	5.99%	2.83%	1.27%	1.56%
1995	25	10.31%	10.22%	7.50%	2.72%
1990	30	10.17%	10.62%	8.07%	2.55%
1988	32	9.67%	13.57%	10.20%	3.37%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.92, 23.52, and 26.13. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 20.18, 22.78 and 25.39. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.06, 19.44 and 21.85. The current P/E Ratio is 23.57 based on a stock price of $84.14 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $3.57. The current ratio is between the median and high 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $50.30. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.48 and 1.64. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.67 based on a stock price of $84.14. The current ratio is above the high 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.95. The current P/B Ratio is 2.67 based on a Book Value of $10,943M, Book Value per Share of $31.50 and a stock price of $84.14. The current ratio is 37% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The problem is a declining book value which has declined by 0.27% each year over the past 5 years. A declining book value is never a good sign.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.47. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.01 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $12.00, Cash Flow of $4,168M and a stock price of $84.14. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.30%. The current dividend yield is 1.59% based on dividends of $1.34 and a stock price of $84.14. The current yield is 22.5% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.88%. The current dividend yield is 1.59% based on dividends of $1.34 and a stock price of $84.14. The current yield is 15% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.48. The current P/S Ratio is 0.56 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $52,126M, Revenue per Share of $150.06 and a stock price of $84.14. The current ratio is 17.6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable but above the median. The 10 year dividend yield test says this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The Historical dividend yield test says the stock price is cheap, but a yield is 1.59% is still a very low yield. They are not building their Book Value and this can be a problem.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I am happy with my grocery stock replacement of Metro Inc. However, I do like shopping at Loblaws better than at Metro. Loblaws has not be doing well recently for shareholders, although it is up some 34% year to date. If we do the Total Return per year, as is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to date, the 5 year return is better, but long term investors are still suffering. Currently I will stay invested in Metro, but I will still follow Loblaws and I will continue to shop in Loblaws.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	5.17%	5.10%	3.50%	1.60%
2010	10	4.30%	10.12%	8.14%	1.98%
2005	15	2.85%	5.28%	3.70%	1.58%
2000	20	5.99%	4.20%	2.76%	1.43%
1995	25	10.31%	9.56%	7.36%	2.19%
1990	30	10.17%	11.90%	9.36%	2.55%
1988	32	9.67%	10.13%	8.12%	2.01%

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (3), Hold (4), and Underperform (1). The consensus is a Buy, but the spread of recommendations is big. The 12 month stock price consensus is $87.58. This implies a total return of 5.68% with 4.09% from capital gains and 1.59% from dividends. It is a rather low return

Recent analysts’ comments on Stock Chase are positive. Nikhil Kumar on Motley Fool says Loblaws did the right things during the pandemic and this will bear fruit for the company. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list one risk. A writer on Simply Wall Street says why this stock should be on your watch list. Andrew Willis on Stock Insight talks about this company and George Weston.

Loblaw is one of Canada's largest grocery, pharmacy, and general merchandise retailers. It operates the most expansive store footprint in Ontario and maintains sizable presences in provinces like Quebec and British Columbia. In addition to its retail operations, Loblaw oversees a financial-services business, which provides credit card services and guaranteed investment certificates, and also operates its PC Optimum loyalty program. Its web site is here Loblaw Companies Ltd .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE) ... learn more on Tuesday, August 3, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Ballard Power Systems Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Sector Stock. The stock price would seem to be on the expensive side. The debt ratios are good, but they just raised a lot of cash selling shares. They have negative earnings and cash flow. When these might turn positive is anyone guess. People keep hoping for this. See my spreadsheet on Ballard Power Systems Inc.

I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP), but I used to. Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and never recovered.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed in February 2021 the stock price soared. Seems to be because it was an alternative fuel stock. It has lost a lot since then. This is a company that has only made a profit in 3 of the past 26 years. It has not made a profit in the last 10 years. Balance sheet has a big increase due to the company having a lot more cash and cash equivalents. This is due to the company selling shares. Shares outstanding increase some 20% in 2020.

Note that any green or blue ink is generally showing results that are less bad. These colours are not showing any increases in most items. Only Revenue and Stock Price are showing positive results. For such things as EPS, the 10 year positive result of 6.70% per share is showing EPS going from a -$0.42 to a -$0.21. That is the EPS has a lower loss.

This stock has never paid a dividend.

Debt Ratios are good because the company just issued shares to raise money. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.00 (because debt level is so low). The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 16.40. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 13.06. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.08 and 0.08.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2020 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.00%	69.16%	69.16%	0.00%
2010	10	0.00%	34.83%	34.83%	0.00%
2005	15	0.00%	12.77%	12.77%	0.00%
2000	20	0.00%	-5.61%	-5.61%	0.00%
1995	25	0.00%	7.40%	7.40%	0.00%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2020 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.00%	71.88%	71.88%	0.00%
2010	10	0.00%	31.62%	31.62%	0.00%
2005	15	0.00%	11.89%	11.89%	0.00%
2000	20	0.00%	-4.76%	-4.76%	0.00%
1995	25	0.00%	7.71%	7.71%	0.00%

The stock has gone down some 33% year to date. So, the Total Return to the present time is lower. For the years of 5 to 25 to the present in CDN$ is shown below. Note that it is more resent shareholders who have great returns. If I had held on to my shares from 23 years ago, I would have a gain of just 0.73% per year.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.00%	54.97%	54.97%	0.00%
2010	10	0.00%	33.54%	33.54%	0.00%
2005	15	0.00%	7.55%	7.55%	0.00%
2000	20	0.00%	-4.28%	-4.28%	0.00%
1995	25	0.00%	1.68%	1.68%	0.00%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and so unusable. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and unusable. The corresponding historical ratios are also negative. In the past 26 years, this company has only had earnings for 3 of those years. There are 23 years of earnings losses. The current year is expected to have an earnings loss also, as is 2022. We cannot do any P/E Ratio testing for the company.

I estimate the Graham Price to be 1.19. All my graham Prices are gross estimates. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 3.34, 5.30 and 7.27. The current P/GP Ratio is 17.36 based on a stock price of $20.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, since I am only guessing at the Graham Price, this cannot be good test. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.78. The current P/B Ratio is 3.28 based on a Book Value of $1,408M, Book Value per Share of $4.99 and a stock price of $16.36. The current ratio is 18% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$.

In CDN$ the difference in P/B ratios is 25%, with the 10 year median P/B Ratio at 2.62 and the current P/B Ratio at 3.29. The current P/B Ratio is based on a Book Value of $1,771M, Book Value per Share of $6.28 and a stock price of $20.63. This stock price testing would imply a stock price that is relatively expensive. Such different results are due to the currency exchange and also the stock is traded more on the US Stock Exchange than the Canadian one.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio that are all negative so these ratios are unusable. And, since there are no dividends, I cannot do any dividend yield testing.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.47. The current P/S Ratio is 29.97 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $154M, Revenue per Share of $0.55 and a stock price of $16.36. The current ratio is 636% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. In CDN$ the difference in ratio is 453%, so the result is the same with the stock price being relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. This is showing in the P/S Ratio test, which is probably the best test. There are mixed results from the P/B Ratio testing, but both with US$ and CDN$ testing, the difference in ratios is rather high.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think the current price is on the expensive side. It would seem that cars running by fuel cells are always a future dream. I am still following this stock, but I will not buy it again.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (7), Hold (7) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. Most consensus are a Buy, but the interesting thing is that there is a sell recommendation. This very seldom happens. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.23 ($18.47 US$). This implies a total return of 12.58%, all from capital gains.

Analysts have very mixed views of this company on Stock Chase. Vineet Kulkarni on Motley Fool thinks the pressure on Ballard will continue. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and lists 2 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the company’s cash burn. This is an important subject for a company with no earnings. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider selling. There really hasn’t been insider selling, it is just that insiders are not taking up the stock options they have.

Ballard Power Systems Inc is a clean energy growth company. The company is engaged in proton exchange membrane fuel cell development and commercialization. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from China and also has a presence in Germany; Belgium; Japan; Denmark; the UK and other countries. Its web site is here Ballard Power Systems Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) ... learn more on Friday, July 30, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Portfolio .... learn more on Thursday, July 29, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Savaria Corporation

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price would seem on the pricey side. This company has done very well in the past and analysts expect it to do well in the future. The Dividend Payout Ratios are improving. Debt Ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on Savaria Corporation.

I do not own this stock of Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF). I got this stock off the Dividend Blogger site that no longer exists. I am always interested in dividend growth small cap stock. The first few years of accounting were rather confusing, but I think I figured them out in the end.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock has done very well. I see all sorts of green ink. This has been a great dividend growth stock for its shareholders.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.38%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yield is also moderate at 2.49%, 3.43% and 3.62%. The dividend growth is good (15% and over) at 22.28% per year over the past 5 years. However, the last increase was in 2020 and it was for 4.4%. There has been no increase in 2021.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 89% with 5 year coverage at 78%. The DPR for EPS is increasing faster than EPS. The DPR for CFPS is 42% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is 50% with 5 year coverage 75%.

Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio or 2020 is 0.07. This is good and low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 2.67. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 2.61. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.62 and 0.62.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	22.28%	25.50%	21.28%	4.21%
2010	10	18.66%	30.21%	24.78%	5.42%
2005	15	21.51%	17.13%	14.29%	2.84%
2001	19		18.21%	15.74%	2.47%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.19, 25.40 and 36.53. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.54, 21.05 and 26.14. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.29, 18.19 and 21.64. The current P/E Ratio is 28.84 based on a stock price of $20.19 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $0.70. The current P/E Ratio is above the 10 year high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $11.82. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.17, 1.55 and 1.96. The current ratio is 1.71 based on a stock price of $20.19. The current ratio is between the median and high 10 year median P/GP Ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.28 based on a Book Value of $452.7M, Book Value per Share of $8.87 and a stock price of 20.19. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of $13.03. The current ratio is 24.62 based on a stock price of $20.19, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $0.82 and Cash Flow of $41.9M. The current ratio is 89% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

For the P/CF Ratio testing, analyst seem to expect the Cash Flow per Share to drop by 15% in 2021 and then rise by 78% in 2022. If we use the Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $1.46, Cash Flow of $74.5M and a stock price of $20.19, the P/CF Ratio becomes 13.83. This ratio is 6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.62%. The current dividend yield is 2.38% based on a stock price of $20.19 and dividends of $0.48. The current dividend yield is 34% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.43%. The current dividend yield is 2.38% based on a stock price of $20.19 and dividends of $0.48. The current dividend yield is 31% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.72. The current P/S Ratio is 1.59 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $647M, Revenue per Share of $12.68 and stock price of $20.19. The current ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

For estimate for 2021, analysts expect a big leap in Revenue to $647M or up 86%. This is a big increase and you have to wonder. In the past they have overestimated Revenue. See chart below. For example, in 2019 and 2020, the estimates for 2020 were $430 and $368. The actual revenue came in at $354, which is lower than both estimates.

Estimates	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
2018	$281M	$450M
2019		$395M	$430M
2020			$368M	$396M
2021				$647M	$757M
Actuals	$286M	$374M	$354M

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is could be reasonable, but on the expensive side. The dividend yield tests are showing the stock price as expensive. The P/S Ratio test is not, but I wonder if analysts are right about the big Revenue increase for 2021. Revenues are most likely going up, but by 83%? The results of the other testing are mixed. It is interesting that the P/B Ratio test shows the price as reasonable and below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company has done very well and I expect it will continue to do very well. However, at this point in time I think the stock is on the pricey side

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Buy (7). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.69. This implies a total return of 19.71%, with 17.34% from capital gains and 2.38% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase think that now is the time to buy this stock. Rajiv Nanjapla on Motley Fool says this is one of his top picks for July 2021. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and lists 4 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about ownership of the shares of this company. Richard De Sousa, a blogger on Rich Picks Daily says this is a stock to add to your buy list.

Savaria Corp designs, engineers, and manufactures products for personal mobility. Its products include home elevators, wheelchair lifts, commercial elevators, ceiling lifts, stair lifts, and van conversions. Its web site is here Savaria Corporation.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TECSYS Inc (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 28, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Algonquin Power.... learn more on Tuesday, July 27, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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