I do not own this stock of BlackBerry Ltd (TSX-BB, NYSE-BB). I bought this stock for capital gain. I first bought it in 1999 and then some more in 2000. I sold some in 2006 and 2007 to lock in some profit. I sold the rest of my stock in 2010.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed if I had held on to my shares, I would have owned them for 22 year and would have had a loss of 1% per year. I sold 11 years ago and made 20.18% per year profit.
This stock does not pay dividends and have never paid dividends.
Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2021 is 0.12. This is good and low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 2.34. This is quite high and good. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is 2.14 and this is also high and good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.87 and 0.87. These are low and good.
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2020 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 5 | 0.00% | -8.05% | -8.05% | 0.00% |
| 2010 | 10 | 0.00% | -17.54% | -17.54% | 0.00% |
| 2005 | 15 | 0.00% | -7.13% | -7.13% | 0.00% |
| 2000 | 20 | 0.00% | -4.24% | -4.24% | 0.00% |
| 1997 | 23 | 0.00% | 8.97% | 8.97% | 0.00% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2020 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 5 | 0.00% | -6.50% | -6.50% | 0.00% |
| 2010 | 10 | 0.00% | -19.52% | -19.52% | 0.00% |
| 2005 | 15 | 0.00% | -7.68% | -7.68% | 0.00% |
| 2000 | 20 | 0.00% | -3.43% | -3.43% | 0.00% |
| 1997 | 23 | 0.00% | 8.76% | 8.76% | 0.00% |
The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and therefore unusable. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and unusable. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.46, 15.44 and 20.76. The current P/E Ratio is negative because this company is not expected to make a profit in 2022. It is also not expected to make a profit in 2023. For 2024, an EPS of $0.08 ($0.06 US$) is expected and with a current stock price of $12.72, the current P/E Ratio is 168.99. This is a very high ratio because the EPS is very low. There is really not much testing available for the P/E Ratio. This testing is in CDN$.
I estimate a Graham Price of $2.34. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.70, 1.03 and 1.34. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.44 based on a stock price of $12.72. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$. However, there are so many years of earnings losses (7 of the last 10) that you have to wonder about the validity of this test.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 3.94 based on a Book Value of $1,827M, Book Value per Share o $2.57 and a stock price of $10.17. The current ratio is 127% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$ testing. The problem is a declining Book Value.
I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.34. The current P/B Ratio is 53.33 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $0.19, Cash Flow of $108M and a stock price of $10.17. The current ratio is 629% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$ testing.
This stock has no dividends and so dividend yield tests cannot be done.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.33. the current P/S Ratio is 7.36 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $782M, Revenue per Share of $1.38 and a stock price of $10.17. The current ratio is 216% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$ testing.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price seems to be coming up as expensive. It has had a recent rather wild ride in the share price. The P/S Ratio test says it is expensive because analyst expect a fall in Revenues. They also expect the stock price to fall in the next year. This is a rather negative outlook
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a very risky tech stock for investment purposes. Whether it will be a good future investment is anyone guess. I am not interested in investing in this stock at present. Analysts’ recommendations are rather negative.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (1), Underperform (3), and Sell (5). The consensus would be a Sell. Getting a consensus of sell is quite rare. The 12 month target price is $7.65 ($6.10 US$). This implies a total capital loss of 40%.
Analysts on Stock Chase have mixed views. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says multiple growth drivers could make BB a viable asset for your portfolio. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and list 1 risk. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the company is currently trading above its intrinsic value which he says is $11.64 CDN$. A writer on Simply Wall Street has a negative view of this stock because of current forecast, especially noted was the decline in Revenue .
BlackBerry Ltd, once known for being the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, is now exclusively a software provider with a stated goal of end-to-end secure communication for enterprises. The firm provides endpoint management and protection to enterprises, specializing in regulated industries like government, as well as embedded software to the automotive, medical, and industrial markets. Its web site is here BlackBerry Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Stingray Digital Group Inc (TSX-RAY.A, OTC-NONE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Andrew Peller Ltd (TSX-ADW.A, OTC-ADWPF) ... learn more on Friday, August 6, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy August 2021.... learn more on Thursday, August 05, 2021 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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