I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP), but I used to. Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and never recovered.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed in February 2021 the stock price soared. Seems to be because it was an alternative fuel stock. It has lost a lot since then. This is a company that has only made a profit in 3 of the past 26 years. It has not made a profit in the last 10 years. Balance sheet has a big increase due to the company having a lot more cash and cash equivalents. This is due to the company selling shares. Shares outstanding increase some 20% in 2020.
Note that any green or blue ink is generally showing results that are less bad. These colours are not showing any increases in most items. Only Revenue and Stock Price are showing positive results. For such things as EPS, the 10 year positive result of 6.70% per share is showing EPS going from a -$0.42 to a -$0.21. That is the EPS has a lower loss.
This stock has never paid a dividend.
Debt Ratios are good because the company just issued shares to raise money. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.00 (because debt level is so low). The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 16.40. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 13.06. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.08 and 0.08.
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2020 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 5 | 0.00% | 69.16% | 69.16% | 0.00% |
| 2010 | 10 | 0.00% | 34.83% | 34.83% | 0.00% |
| 2005 | 15 | 0.00% | 12.77% | 12.77% | 0.00% |
| 2000 | 20 | 0.00% | -5.61% | -5.61% | 0.00% |
| 1995 | 25 | 0.00% | 7.40% | 7.40% | 0.00% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2020 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 5 | 0.00% | 71.88% | 71.88% | 0.00% |
| 2010 | 10 | 0.00% | 31.62% | 31.62% | 0.00% |
| 2005 | 15 | 0.00% | 11.89% | 11.89% | 0.00% |
| 2000 | 20 | 0.00% | -4.76% | -4.76% | 0.00% |
| 1995 | 25 | 0.00% | 7.71% | 7.71% | 0.00% |
The stock has gone down some 33% year to date. So, the Total Return to the present time is lower. For the years of 5 to 25 to the present in CDN$ is shown below. Note that it is more resent shareholders who have great returns. If I had held on to my shares from 23 years ago, I would have a gain of just 0.73% per year.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 5 | 0.00% | 54.97% | 54.97% | 0.00% |
| 2010 | 10 | 0.00% | 33.54% | 33.54% | 0.00% |
| 2005 | 15 | 0.00% | 7.55% | 7.55% | 0.00% |
| 2000 | 20 | 0.00% | -4.28% | -4.28% | 0.00% |
| 1995 | 25 | 0.00% | 1.68% | 1.68% | 0.00% |
The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and so unusable. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative and unusable. The corresponding historical ratios are also negative. In the past 26 years, this company has only had earnings for 3 of those years. There are 23 years of earnings losses. The current year is expected to have an earnings loss also, as is 2022. We cannot do any P/E Ratio testing for the company.
I estimate the Graham Price to be 1.19. All my graham Prices are gross estimates. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 3.34, 5.30 and 7.27. The current P/GP Ratio is 17.36 based on a stock price of $20.63. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, since I am only guessing at the Graham Price, this cannot be good test. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.78. The current P/B Ratio is 3.28 based on a Book Value of $1,408M, Book Value per Share of $4.99 and a stock price of $16.36. The current ratio is 18% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$.
In CDN$ the difference in P/B ratios is 25%, with the 10 year median P/B Ratio at 2.62 and the current P/B Ratio at 3.29. The current P/B Ratio is based on a Book Value of $1,771M, Book Value per Share of $6.28 and a stock price of $20.63. This stock price testing would imply a stock price that is relatively expensive. Such different results are due to the currency exchange and also the stock is traded more on the US Stock Exchange than the Canadian one.
I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio that are all negative so these ratios are unusable. And, since there are no dividends, I cannot do any dividend yield testing.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.47. The current P/S Ratio is 29.97 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $154M, Revenue per Share of $0.55 and a stock price of $16.36. The current ratio is 636% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. In CDN$ the difference in ratio is 453%, so the result is the same with the stock price being relatively expensive.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. This is showing in the P/S Ratio test, which is probably the best test. There are mixed results from the P/B Ratio testing, but both with US$ and CDN$ testing, the difference in ratios is rather high.
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think the current price is on the expensive side. It would seem that cars running by fuel cells are always a future dream. I am still following this stock, but I will not buy it again.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (7), Hold (7) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. Most consensus are a Buy, but the interesting thing is that there is a sell recommendation. This very seldom happens. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.23 ($18.47 US$). This implies a total return of 12.58%, all from capital gains.
Analysts have very mixed views of this company on Stock Chase. Vineet Kulkarni on Motley Fool thinks the pressure on Ballard will continue. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and lists 2 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the company’s cash burn. This is an important subject for a company with no earnings. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider selling. There really hasn’t been insider selling, it is just that insiders are not taking up the stock options they have.
Ballard Power Systems Inc is a clean energy growth company. The company is engaged in proton exchange membrane fuel cell development and commercialization. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from China and also has a presence in Germany; Belgium; Japan; Denmark; the UK and other countries. Its web site is here Ballard Power Systems Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) ... learn more on Friday, July 30, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Portfolio .... learn more on Thursday, July 29, 2021 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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