Ballard Power Systems Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Sector Stock. I think it can also be considered a tech stock. The stock price is relatively very high. Whether the dreams of the current investors will come true is anyone guess. They have good debt ratios and the burn rate seems to be under control. See my spreadsheet on Ballard Power Systems Inc.

I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP). Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and is just now recovering.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed if I had kept this stock, after buying in 1997, I would have made a profit of 0.90% per year. This is the first time the stock is above what I paid for it. This is after almost 23 years.

The stock price has taken off. They have positive growth in Revenue, but not growth in Revenue per Share. As a shareholder it is Revenue per Share that counts. The Revenue for the past 5 and 10 year has grown at 9.12% and 8.57% per year. However, the Revenue per Share over the past 5 and 10 years is down by 2.71% and 2.03% per year. EPS and Cash Flow are still negative. The company has raised money by selling shares and outstanding shares are up by 12% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

This stock has never paid a dividend, so there is no dividend yield or Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.01 and so is very good and very low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 3.56 and is very good. The Debt Ratio is 3.78 and is very good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 1.36 and 0.36 are low and good.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	31.39%	31.39%	0.00%
2009	10	0.00%	16.65%	16.65%	0.00%
2004	15	0.00%	0.96%	0.96%	0.00%
1999	20	0.00%	-7.13%	-7.13%	0.00%
1995	24	0.00%	2.61%	2.61%	0.00%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	29.39%	29.39%	0.00%
2009	10	0.00%	14.28%	14.28%	0.00%
2004	15	0.00%	0.38%	0.38%	0.00%
1999	20	0.00%	-6.52%	-6.52%	0.00%
1995	24	0.00%	2.86%	2.86%	0.00%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative. The corresponding 10 year ratios are negative. The corresponding historical ratios are also negative. The current P/E Ratio is negative. The company has not made any profit. It is impossible to a P/E Ratio test.

My best guess at a Graham Price is $0.61. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.96, 3.45 and 4.81. The current P/GP Ratio is 31.26 based on a stock price of $19.06. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.68. The current P/B Ratio is 11.56 based on a stock price of $14.23, Book Value of $289M and Book Value per Share of $1.23. The current ratio is 331% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I cannot do a Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio test as the cash flow is negative and so the ratios are negative. I cannot do any dividend yield tests because there are no dividends.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.59. The current P/S Ratio is 28.04 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $119M, Revenue per Share of $0.51 and a stock price of $14.23. The current ratio is 680% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that the stock price is relatively expensive. This stock has recently taken off like a rocket.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a highly speculative stock. It still remains to be seen if it will be a success or not. I bought it 1997 because I fell in love with the idea of what it was trying to do. I gave up on it in 2006 because I lost faith in the company. It is still a great idea. Whether or not it will be successful I think is still unknown. I do not regret having this stock as I still think it has great ideas. However, I will probably not invest in it again.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $27.22 ($20.28 US$). This implies a total return of $42.80% all from capital gains.

Analyst on Stock Chase are negative about his stock. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool talks about Ballard being a top performer. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the big increase in share price and that share price is rising faster than revenue. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about why he is not worried about the company’s cash burn. Zacks Equity Research on Yahoo Finance says the company is expected to beat earning estimates.

Ballard Power Systems Inc is a clean energy growth company. The company is engaged in proton exchange membrane fuel cell development and commercialization. The company's main business is the design, development, manufacture, sale, and service of fuel cell products for a variety of applications, focusing on motive power (material handling and buses) and stationary power (back-up power, supplemental power, and distributed generation). Its web site is here Ballard Power Systems Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) ... learn more on Tuesday, August 4, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Feeding the People by Rebecca Earle learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Savaria Corporation

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Stock price is probably reasonable, but maybe a bit high. Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow are growing, but so is the outstanding shares. Dividend growth may decline. Debt Ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on Savaria Corporation.

I do not own this stock of Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF). I got this stock off the Dividend Blogger site that no longer exists. I am always interested in dividend growth small cap stock. The first few years of accounting were rather confusing, but I think I figured them out in the end.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company has been doing well with rising Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow. For example, EPS has gone up by 18% and 19% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, for some reason analysts think that EPS will decrease this year, but the first quarter points to a slight increase in EPS for 2020.

Their web site does not show top management. I have not seen any other side not to show this information. A negative is the increasing number of outstanding shares. Outstanding shares have been increasing by 11.4% and 8.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth good. The current dividend is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.47%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 2.49%, 3.43% and 3.54%. The dividend growth has been over all good (15% per year and over) with dividend growing at 27% per year over the past 5 years. See chart below. The last dividend increase was in 2019 and it was for 16.7%. They have also paid out special dividends. But they have cut dividends in the past when the DPRs got too high.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high and need improving. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 81% with 5 year coverage at 73%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 44% with 5 year coverage also at 44%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 102% with 5 year coverage at 96%. Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 0.98 and the 5 year ratio is 1.04. The increase for 2019 was lower than it has been and this is a good step forward.

Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.07 and this is very good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 2.45 and this is also very good. The Debt Ratio is 2.54 and very good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 1.63 and 0.63 and are very good.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	27.02%	30.27%	26.25%	4.02%
2009	10	30.50%	39.22%	32.29%	6.93%
2004	15	22.53%	17.69%	15.11%	2.58%
2001	18		18.73%	16.45%	2.28%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.19, 25.40 and 36.53. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.54, 18.92 and 22.88. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.26, 17.97 and 21.11. The current P/E Ratio is 29.47 based on a stock price of $13.26, EPS estimate for 2020 o $0.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $7.44. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.17, 1.54 and 1.81. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.78 based on a stock price of $13.26. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.42 based on a stock price of $13.26, Book Value of 277M, and Book Value per Share of $5.47. The current P/B Ratio is 12% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.82. The current P/CF Ratio is 20.09 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate of $0.66, Cash Flow of $33.4M and a stock price of $13.26. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.54%. The current dividend yield is 3.47% based on dividends of $0.46 and a stock price of $13.26. The current yield is 2% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.43%. The current dividend yield is 3.47% based on dividends of $0.46 and a stock price of $13.26. The current yield is 1% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.53. The current P/S Ratio is 1.82 based on Revenue estimate for 2020 of $368M, Revenue per Share of $7.27 and a stock price of $13.26. The current ratio is 19% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests show that the stock price is around the median. The P/S Ratio test show that it is above the median. The P/B Ratio test show the stock price below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? They have increasing Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow, but are also increases outstanding shares. I think that the company is good, but growth maybe uneven. Dividend increases may decline. However, I suspect that they will do well long term.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $15.39. This implies a total return of 19.53% with 16.06% from capital gains and 3.47% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase think the company has growth potential. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks this company is a great small cap for your TFSA. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that increases in outstanding shares is likely hurt its dividend prospects. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the stock is selling below its intrinsic value of $17.55 but there is high uncertainty for this company in the near term. The company announces two new contracts on Globe Newswire.

Savaria Corp designs, engineers, and manufactures products for personal mobility. Its products include home elevators, wheelchair lifts, commercial elevators, ceiling lifts, stair lifts, and van conversions. The company's operating segments are the Accessibility, the Adapted Vehicles, and the Patient Handling divisions. Its web site is here Savaria Corporation.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TECSYS Inc (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP) ... learn more on Friday, July 31, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks for 2020.... learn more on Thursday, July 30, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

TECSYS Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Stock price is relatively expensive. It is also a tech stock. The dividend is very low at present. I do not buy stocks with dividends under 1% because it takes too long to get a good return no matter on the increases. It would be a buy if dividend goes over 1%. This stock started to rise again in 2012, after its meteoric rise and fall with the 2000 tech market. See my spreadsheet on TECSYS Inc.

I own this stock of TECSYS Inc (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF). I came across this stock when I was looking for a dividend paying small cap stock as a filler stock. I consider a filler stock to be one to soak up small amounts of investment money that I have left over in my account, especially in the TFSA after I have made my main purchase for the year. This is a small cap dividend paying stock that I like.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed David Brereton is the founder and Chair. He has been selling off some of his shares each year and has been doing this for awhile. Of the ones I looked at, the only one buying was the CFO, Mark Joseph Bentler. He is not a Brereton as there are a few Brereton’s at this company. The Debt Ratios are good.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The dividend yields have often been low (below2%), with the current yield at 0.80% and 5, 10 and historical yields at 1.28%, 1.42% and 1.53%. In the past the dividend increases have been good. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently a bit too high, but I expect this will be corrected. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 128% with 5 year coverage at 66%. The DPR for 2020 is 45% with 5 year coverage at 47%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 34% with 5 year coverage at 44%. Dividend Coverage Ratio is 2.95 with 5 year coverage at 2.30.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2020 is 0.03. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.56. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 1.97. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.04 and 1.04.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

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From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	20.64%	23.10%	21.71%	1.38%
2009	10	16.49%	28.27%	26.42%	1.86%
2004	15	15.69%	20.59%	19.38%	1.21%
1999	20		5.67%	5.27%	0.40%
1998	21		9.94%	9.46%	0.48%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.67, 20.68 and 24.69. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 20.68, 27.23 and 33.78. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.24, 13.24 and 16.46. The current P/E Ratio is 136.36 based on a stock price of $30.00 and 2021 EPS estimate of $0.22. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $4.58. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.50, 1.98 and 2.52. The current P/GP Ratio is 6.55 based on a stock price of $30.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.74. The current P/B Ratio is 7.08 based on a Book Value of $61M, Book Value per Share of $4.24 and a stock price of $30.00. The current P/B Ratio is 89% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 20.73. The current P/CF Ratio is 43.22 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $10M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.69 and a stock price of $30.00. The current ratio is 109% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.53%. The current dividend yield is 0.80% based on dividends $0.24 and a stock price of $30.00. The current yield is 48% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.42%. The current dividend yield is 0.80% based on dividends $0.24 and a stock price of $30.00. The current yield is 44% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.60. The current P/S Ratio is 3.73 based on a stock price of $30.00, 2021 Revenue estimate of $116M, and Revenue per Share of $8.05. The current ratio is 133% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively expensive. The Dividend Yield tests show this and are confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the test, in fact, show the same thing. I can find no fault with them. However, a lot of the ratios are quite high, relatively speaking.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I own this stock and think it is a great company. I know that it is overpriced but I will not be selling. I do not sell a good company because it gets over price. I do not time the market. Although, neither will I be buying more at the present time.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), and Buy (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $34.50. This implies a total return of 15.80% with 0.80% from dividends and 15% from capital gains.

The last entry shows this company as a top pick, but few analysts follow this company on Stock Chase. Brian Paradza, on Motley Fool says this company could be the next Shopify. A writer on Simply Wall Street says he is worried about declining net income. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that earnings cannot cover dividends, but they are affordable from a cash perspective. A report on Newswire talks about this company earning over $100M for the first time..

TECSYS Inc is engaged in the development and sale of enterprise supply chain management software for distribution, warehousing, transportation logistics, point-of-use, and order management. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States and also has a presence in Canada and other Countries. Its web site is here TECSYS Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pulse Seismic Inc (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 29, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Visual Capitalist.... learn more on Tuesday, July 28, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Pulse Seismic Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Sector Stock. The stock price is cheap. There is insider buying. It is highly speculative. It has a mixed record in records to dividends and basically pays them when affordable. See my spreadsheet on Pulse Seismic Inc.

I do not own this stock of Pulse Seismic Inc (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF). I wanted to invest some extra money in a dividend paying small cap. I went to the Globe and Mail site of G&M and from Globe Investor section I selected the Stock Filter. I asked for companies that were priced between $1 and $5.50 and had a yield between 4% and 20%. Pulse Seismic Inc. was one of the companies that were returned. This is not a stock I chose to invest in but I found it of interest so I am following it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that there is lots of insider buying. There is buying by the CEO, CFO and Chairman. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but cut its dividends in 2015 because of lack of earnings. However, they did give out a special dividend in 2017 when they made a profit. Problem is that they service the energy business in the west so they are currently not earning much. The stock peaked in 2013 and has been going south ever since.

They have a very mixed record in regards to dividends. Dividend have gone up and down. They were suspended in 2015, but this was not the first time. They also made a special dividend in 2017 because they made a profit that year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) show a mixed record. However, they have suspended dividends when they would not afford them. In 2017 they made a profit so gave out a dividend that was 74% DPR of EPS and 19% of CFPS. Morningstar and Wall Street Journal do not agree on what the Free Cash Flow is, however, according to Morningstar they paid out 29% of FCF in 2017.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.29 and that is good. It is still good at 0.57 for a current value. Debt went down, but so did the stock price. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.11 and if you add in cash flow after dividends it is 2.72. The current Liquidity Ratio is 0.79 and with cash flow is 1.65. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.85. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2019 is 2.18 and 1.18 and these are also fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	-5.88%	-7.92%	2.04%
2009	10	0.00%	7.97%	4.58%	3.39%
2004	15	0.00%	5.08%	0.73%	4.35%
1999	20		10.02%	4.87%	5.15%
1998	21		13.88%	7.50%	6.38%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative. The corresponding historical ratios are 2.83, 4.57 and 5.71. The current P/E Ratio is 3.03 based on a stock price of $0.91 and 2020 EPS estimate of 0.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $2.11. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.13, 1.35 and 1.59. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.43 based on a stock price of $0.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.40. The current P/B Ratio is 1.38 based on a stock price of $0.91, Book Value of $35.475M, and Book Value per Share of $0.66. The current ratio is 59% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.38. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.28 based on last 12 months Cash Flow of $5.9M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.11 and a stock price of $0.91. The current ratio is 54% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I cannot do any dividend yield testing as the dividends have been suspended.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.25. The current P/S Ratio is 4.08 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $12M, Revenue per Share of $0.22 and a stock price of $0.91. The current ratio is 22% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio test shows this and it is confirmed by the P/B Ratio test. The P/CF test shows this as well. The problem with the P/E Ratio testing is all the years of earning losses. This would also affect the Graham Price as some guessing goes into its calculation so it might be off.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? First, the stock price is relatively cheap. I still think this is an interesting company and if resources ever pick up again it will do well. However, it is highly speculative.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1). The consensus would be a buy. The 12 month target price is $1.40. This implies a total return of 53.85% all from capital gains.

This is a small company and there is only old comments on Stock Chase. Stock is not well followed. See the executive overview on Simply Wall Street. A writer on Simply Wall Street is a bit worried about the debt of this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the consensus on this stock has turned bearish. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the CEO is being paid more then the median for this size of a company. The company reports on the Second Quarter of 2020 on Global News Wire

Pulse Seismic Inc is a Canadian company which acts as a provider of seismic data to the energy sector in western Canada. The company is engaged in the acquisition, marketing, and licensing of 2D and 3D seismic data to the energy sector. Its web site is here Pulse Seismic Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Dorel Industries Inc (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TECSYS Inc (TSX-TCS, OTC-TCYSF) ... learn more on Monday, July 27, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Dorel Industries Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Consumer Sector Stock. The stock price is relatively cheap. There is insider buying. They have too much debt and dividends have recently been suspended because of lack of af any earnings. See my spreadsheet on Dorel Industries Inc.

I do not own this stock of Dorel Industries Inc (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF). I am following this stock because I used to own it. I am always curious about what happens to stocks after I no longer hold them. I held this stock for 7 years between 1999 and 2006 and had a total loss of 1.21% with a capital loss of 1.22% and dividends of 0.01%. If I still had this stock today, I would have broken even.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that Stock Price has gone almost straight south since 2018. Earnings peaked in 2012. Sales are not growing much. They have too much debt. Also, the Goodwill and Intangible assets are too high. In 4 of the past 6 years they had earning losses. On a positive note, insiders are buying.

This stock used to be a dividend growth stock, but it is that no longer. Dividends used to be in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The 5 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.84%, 3.92% and 3.00%. However, it recently cut the dividends because they could no longer afford them. There were no dividend increases between 2014 and 2018 inclusive.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) for EPS was not good, so dividend has been cut. Other coverages were fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was a negative as was the 5 year coverage. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 9.62% with 5 year coverage at 22.66%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 30.56% with 5 year coverage at 64.12%.

Debt Ratios need to be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 was 2.78 with the current one at 2.80. For 2019 it was the drop in stock price that caused the high ratio. For the current one, they have increased debt by 26%. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.61 and this is good. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is 1.40. I prefer to see this at 1.50 or above. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 3.48 and 2.48, moving up to 4.03 and 3.03 currently. These are too high. I prefer them to be under 3.00 and under 2.00, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-15.93%	-24.60%	-31.93%	7.33%
2009	10	1.11%	-7.76%	-15.77%	8.01%
2004	15	1.41%	-6.18%	-12.22%	6.04%
1999	20		-1.79%	-7.19%	5.40%
1994	25		7.88%	1.66%	6.22%
1992	27		5.52%	0.23%	5.30%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-17.81%	-26.49%	-33.15%	6.66%
2009	10	-1.05%	-9.88%	-17.42%	7.54%
2004	15	-0.87%	-6.40%	-12.54%	6.14%
1999	20		-0.66%	-6.48%	5.83%
1994	25		8.73%	2.04%	6.69%
1992	27		7.26%	1.38%	5.88%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.00, 8.77 and 10.27. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.77, 11.31 and 14.45. The current P/E Ratio is negative, so I cannot test with that. The P/E Ratio for 2021 is 13.96 based on a stock price of $7.77. This would imply that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $15.39, but this is a guess because the number of earning losses. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.69, 0.87 and 1.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.50 based on a stock price of $7.77. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.80. The current P/B Ratio is 0.35 based on a Book Value of $452.5M, Book Value per Share of $13.93 and a stock price of $5.79. The current ratio is 48% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$ and you will get similar results in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.86. The current P/CF Ratio is 1.34 based on 2020 CFPS estimate of $4.31, cash flow of $140M and a stock price of $5.79. The current ratio is 85% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$ and you will get similar results in CDN$.

I cannot do any dividend yield tests as dividends have been suspended.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.36. The current P/S Ratio is 0.07 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $2,524, Revenue per Share of $77.71 and a stock price of $5.79. The current ratio is 79% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$ and you will get similar results in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The results of the P/S Ratio testing say this and it is confirmed by the P/B Ratio testing. The other testing says the same thing except for the P/E Ratio test. The problem with the P/E Ratio test is that there are earnings losses and so negative P/E Ratios.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? First the price is cheap. This might be a turn-around situation. Insider are buying. However, the track record for this company has not been good lately.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Hold (3) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $3.62 ($3.40 US$). This implies a total loss of 40.60%.

The last entry in 2019 says sell on Stock Chase. Chen Liu on Motley Fool was positive on this stock back in December 2019. The executive overview on Simply Wall Street says the firm is unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company is not reinvesting funds back into the business and returns are not growing. A writer on Simply Wall Street says insiders are buying so it might be a turn-around situation..

Dorel Industries Inc. is a Canadian company that sells juvenile products, bicycles, and furniture. The company operates across North America, East and South Asia, Europe, Oceania, Israel, and South America. Its web site is here Dorel Industries Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Pulse Seismic Inc (TSX-PSD, OTC-PLSDF) ... learn more on Friday, July 24, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Adam Mayers, Blogger.... learn more on Thursday, July 23, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Artis REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying REIT. Stock price is relatively cheap. Lately the total return on this stock is low even with the high dividend yield. The DPRs are much improved with the dividend cut. See my spreadsheet on Artis REIT.

I do not own this stock of Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF). Early in 2013, this company was mentioned as a good REIT to own. A number of people I correspond with mentioned this REIT. However, my first view of it is not positive. It is also not a dividend growth stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the dividend yield is still good. After having a flat dividend for 8 years, they have in the last two year, cut their dividends. Insiders are buying and they have been for the last 3 years. Shareholders have made money because of the dividends. There has been little in the way of capital gains. See chart below.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.99%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are high (7% or higher) at 8.21%, 8.02% and 7.82%. They started to pay dividends in 2005 and there were some increases at first, but then there was 8 years of flat dividends and in 2018 they decreased the dividends by 50%. Analysts do not expect any change in the current dividend over the short term.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are much improved with dividend decrease. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 75% with 5 year coverage at 210%. This DPR has been too high in the past. The DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) has been better than the DPR for EPS. The DPR for FFO for 2019 is 38% with 5 year average at 38%. The 10 year median for DPR for FFO is 76%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 35% with 5 year coverage at 64%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 38% with 5 year coverage at 65%. Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 2.61 with 5 year ratio at 1.54.

Debt Ratios are fine, but would like a better Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.76 and is fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is very low at 0.45. If you considered cash flow after dividends and you only consider dividends paid in cash and the current portion of the long term debt, the ratio is still low at 1.39. I prefer it to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.06. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.94 and 0.94.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-12.94%	3.87%	-3.45%	7.32%
2009	10	-6.70%	9.45%	0.45%	9.00%
2004	15	-2.28%	17.77%	4.50%	13.27%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.06, 13.19 and 16.33. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.27, 10.27 and 11.11. The corresponding historical ratios are 3.85, 4.30 and 4.75. The current P/E Ratio is negative, so I cannot do this test.

I can do a Price/Funds from Operations Ratio test. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/FFO Ratios are 7.25. 9.20 and 9.92. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.73, 9.80 and 11.51. The current P/FFO ratio is 5.90. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $15.93. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.55, 0.65 and 0.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.49 based on a stock price of $7.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.86. The current P/B Ratio is 0.49 based on a Book Value of $2,149M, Book Value per Share of $15.66 and a stock price of $7.73. The current P/B Ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.57. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.65 based on last 12 month Cash Flow of 188.4M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.37 and a stock price of $7.73. The current ratio is 41% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.82%. The current dividend yield is 6.99% based on a stock price of $7.73 and dividends of $0.54. The current yield is 10.7% lower than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.02%. The current dividend yield is 6.99% based on a stock price of $7.73 and dividends of $0.54. The current yield is 12.8% lower than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.90. The current P/S Ratio is 2.26 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $470, Revenue per Share of $3.54 and a stock price of $7.73. The current ratio is 42% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio points to this as does the P/GP Ratio test, the P/B Ratio test, and the P/CF Ratio test. The dividend yield does do not this but this is because the dividends were recently cut by 50%.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I believe that the stock price is reasonable. I would not buy this REIT because it has never been a dividend growth company. You expect dividend growth for REIT basically at the rate of inflation. But they have not grown the dividend since 2010 and now the dividend has been cut by 50%.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $10.46. This implies a total return of 42.30% with 35.32% from capital gains and 6.99% from dividends.

Analysts in the last two entries on Stock Chase say do not buy. Matt Smith on Motley Fool says to buy because it is trading below its NAV of $15.52 per unit. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the share are down 22% over the past 5 years, but Total Shareholder Return is 13%. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider trading. An article on Real Estate News Exchange says this company may be bought out.

Artis Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated closed-end REIT based in Canada. Artis REIT's portfolio comprises properties located in Central and Western Canada and select markets throughout the United States, including regions such as Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Saskatchewan, Arizona, Minnesota, Colorado, New York, and Wisconsin. Its web site is here Artis REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Dorel Industries Inc (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 22, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividends Income and Volatility.... learn more on Tuesday, July 21, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Atlantic Power Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Utility Sector Stock. The stock price seems reasonable. This stock has suspended its dividend and who know when this will change. It cannot make a profit but Free Cash Flow and Cash Flow are rising. Debt ratio could be improved. See my spreadsheet on Atlantic Power Corp.

I do not own this stock of Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT). I am following this stock because I like utility companies and in 2010, I have read two columns that recommended this particular utility company (TSX-ATP), I decided to investigate it. This company has converted from an income trust to a corporation.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed since it was issued in 2004, this stock has only had a profit in one year and that was 2018. Revenue hit a high in 2014 and has been falling ever since. AFFO has been calculated since 2011, but it has been falling ever since 2011.

On a positive note, the Free Cash Flow has been positive and rising at 21.64% per year over the past 5 year and 5.56% per year over the past 9 years. Cash flow has been rising by 11.31% per year over the past 5 year and 5.56% per year over the past 10 years.

Dividends have gone up and down, but mostly down and were finally cut in 2015. It is hard to say whether or not this stock will become a dividend payer again or not.

Debt Ratios could be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 1.86 and therefore much too high. When this ratio is over 1.00, it means that long term debt is higher than the stock’s Market Cap. The current ratio is lower at 1.47, but this is still too high. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.24. If you add in cash flow it is 2.42. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is 1.17 and this is too low. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. Because the book value is negative, the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios cannot be calculated.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	-0.07%	-0.84%	0.77%
2009	10	0.00%	-6.89%	-12.49%	5.60%
2004	15	0.00%	2.31%	-8.12%	10.42%
2003	16	0.00%	3.12%	-7.20%	10.32%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	-2.25%	-2.89%	0.65%
2009	10	0.00%	-9.63%	-15.08%	5.46%
2004	15	0.00%	-1.76%	-10.77%	9.02%
2003	16	0.00%	-1.44%	-10.12%	8.69%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also all negative. The corresponding historical ratios are also all negative. Therefore, P/E Ratio test cannot be done.

I have AFFO figures, so we can do a P/AFFO Ratio test. The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO are 5.37, 6.18 and 6.98. The 9 year corresponding ratios are 7.66, 11.48 and 13.40. The current P/AFFO ratio is 5.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This test is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $2.26. But this is just a guess as this stock has a negative book value. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.92, 1.05 and 1.21. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This test is in CDN$.

I cannot do a Price/Book Ratio test as the Book Value is negative. I cannot do any dividend yield tests because dividends have been suspended.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.22. The current P/CF is 2.18 based on a stock price of $2.73, CFPS of $1.25 ($0.92 US$) and Cash Flow of $136.2M. The current P/CF Ratio is 48% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This test is in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.80. The current P/S Ratio is 0.78 based on a stock price of $2.73, 2020 Revenue estimate of $380.6M ($280M US$) and Revenue per Share of $3.50. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This test is in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively reasonable. There are three tests I cannot do and the Graham Price test is suspect because it cannot be calculated accurately when the book value is negative. The main test I like just shows that stock price as reasonable. The substitute P/AFFO ratio test shows the stock as cheap, but not that cheap. The P/CF Ratio test says the stock is relatively cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price seems reasonable. However, I cannot recommend a stock which has a negative book Value. I personally like dividend growth companies and this is certainly not one.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Hold. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. The 12 month stock price is $3.41 ($2.51 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. His implies a total return of 24.99% all from capital gains.

An analysts in 2017 on Stock Chase was saying do not buy. There are few entries and analysts have lost interest in this stock. Debra Ray on Motley Fool talks about this company being into biomass plants for renewable energy. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this company’s debt is a problem. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns this company’s shares. Catie Powers on Smarter Analyst talks about insider buying at this company.

Atlantic Power Corp is an independent power producer that owns power generation assets in the United States and Canada. It has four reportable segments: Solid Fuel, Natural Gas, Hydroelectric and Corporate. A vast majority of the revenues are generated from the natural gas segment. Its web site is here Atlantic Power Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF) ... learn more on Monday, July 20, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Talking to Strangers by Malcolm Gladwell learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Obsidian Energy Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Resource Sector Stock. Stock price is relatively cheap. Debt is a problem and some comes due next year. It would seem like analysts expect the price to drop even further in the future. Any buy would be highly speculative. See my spreadsheet on Obsidian Energy Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, OTC-OBELF). I bought this stock as Maximum Energy Trust (MXT.UN) in 1998. In November 2001, there was a stock exchange and the stock became Ultimate Energy Fund. In June 2004 fund changed from Ultimate Energy Income Trust to Petrofund Energy. Petrofund Energy merged with Penn West in July 2006. The company changed its name from Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (TSX-PWT, NYSE-PWE) to Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) in 2017.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed analysts are losing interest in this stock. In 2018 there were lots of estimates, for 2019 there were only estimates for Revenue and EPS. For 2020 and 2021 I have found estimates for Revenue, EPS and CFPS.

The dividends were cancelled in 2015. They had not made a profit for a few years prior and have not made a profit since either.

Debt could be a problem, especially long term which really comes due in 2021. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.40 which is fine. However, they were renegotiating their debt. The ratio should have been 6.79. The Long Term Debt then went back up for the first quarter and the ratio is 11.00. The main reason is the crash of the stock price, but this ratio has been higher than 1.00 since 2018.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.28, but if you add in cash flow and current portion of the long term debt it is 1.46. I prefer 1.50 or better but this is fine. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.34. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are good at 1.74 and 0.74.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-33.93%	-42.61%	-44.08%	1.47%
2009	10	-26.78%	-28.39%	-38.98%	10.59%
2004	15	-19.39%	-1.60%	-29.66%	28.05%
1999	20	-10.61%	32.21%	-18.77%	50.98%
1995	23	-8.19%	9.02%	-20.60%	29.62%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative. The corresponding historical ratios are 5.22, 7.55 and 11.00. The current P/E Ratio is negative as is the one for 2021. So, we cannot do this test.

This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $1.03. This is the best I can do. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.38, 3.64 and 5.59. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.57 based on a stock price of $0.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.50. The current P/B Ratios is 0.12 based on a stock price of $0.59, Book Value of $346M and a Book Value per Share of $4.74. The current P/B Ratio is 75% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.78. The current P/CF Ratio is 1.18 based on 2020 CFPS of $0.50, Cash Flow of $36.5M and a stock price of $0.59. The current ratio is 83% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I can not do any dividend yield tests as the dividends were suspended in 2016.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.55. The current P/S Ratio is 0.18 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $236M, Revenue per Share of $3.23 and a stock price of $0.59. The current ratio is 88% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. This can come as no surprise. All the test except the P/E Ratio test and Dividend yield test shows this. I could not do the P/E Ratio test nor the Dividend Yield Test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company is selling relatively cheap. Just because the stock price is cheap does not make this a good buy. A buy would be highly speculative. It is not the sort I would buy. However, I tend not to buy resource stocks at the best of times

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (1), Sell (3). The consensus would be a Sell. The 12 month stock price consensus is $0.07. This would imply a total loss of 88%, all a capital loss.

The last entries were in 2019 and analysts say on Stock Chase do not buy. Mat Litalien on Motley Fool was positive about this stock but this was in August 2019. A writer on Simply Wall Street does a review of this stock in February of this year. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider buying at this company. There is a notice by this company on BOE Report of this company now trading as a OTC in the US market. The company has been delisted from the NYSE.

Obsidian Energy Ltd, is an intermediate-sized oil and gas producer with strategic assets in Alberta. It operates in a single reporting segment that is exploration, development and holding an interest in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. Its web site is here Obsidian Energy Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT) ... learn more on Friday, July 17, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Why Black Wealth Matters in White Americalearn more on July 16, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Rise and Fall by Paul Strathern learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

TMX Group Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Stock price is relatively expensive. There is a vulnerability in the low Liquidity Ratio. Dividend growth seems to be slowing. See my spreadsheet on TMX Group Ltd.

I do not own this stock of TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF). I looked at this stock in 2008 after I found it on a list of Strongest Dividend Growth stocks. I am interested in such stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the Liquidity Ratios are really low. The one for 2019 is just 1.02. There is no safety margin. It is interesting that this company is expanding beyond Canada’s boarders and is increasing revenue from outside Canada.

I also noticed that the earnings are growing much faster than Revenue. Revenue per Share over the past 5 and 10 years grew at 1.67% and 6.72% per year. EPS over the past 5 and 10 years grew at 18.81% and 12.00% per year. However, looking further into this, I find the same is not for the 5 year running growth. Revenue per Share grew over the past 5 and 10 years for 5 year running at 8.31% and 6.96% per year. EPS per Share grew over the past 5 and 10 years for 5 year running at 7.04% and 11.85% per year. It is the 5 year running figures that count in the long run.

The dividend yields are currently low with dividend growth currently moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.98%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.82%, 3.13% and 3.04%. The dividend growth has varied over time, but it is currently moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.16% per year over the past 5 years. But the last increase was lower in the low range at 6.5% for 2020.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 57% with 5 year coverage at 53%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 30% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 53% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 2.03 with 5 year coverage at 2.43.

Debt Ratios are fine, but I would like to see a better Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good and low at 0.12. The Liquidity Ratio is very low at 1.02. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.12, but more leeway is given to financials, so it is fine. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are high at 9.25 and 8.25, but this is financial, so for financials these tend to be rather high.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	9.16%	20.14%	17.32%	2.82%
2009	10	5.02%	16.21%	13.00%	3.21%
2004	15	10.17%	13.28%	10.02%	3.26%
2002	17	13.02%	22.03%	14.87%	7.15%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.09, 15.18 and 17.55. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.75, 15.39 and 18.91. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.85, 21.36 and 25.02. The current P/E Ratio is 25.43 based on a stock price of $133.51 and 2020 EPS estimate of $5.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $85.73. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.07 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.56 based on a stock price of $133.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 2.15 based on a stock price of $133.51 and Book Value of $3,499M and a Book Value per Share of $62.22. The current ratio is 88% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.47. The current P/CF Ratio is 19.55 based on 2020 CFPS estimate of $6.83, Cash Flow of $384M and a stock price of $133.51. The current ratio is 87% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.04%. The current dividend yield is 1.98% based on dividends of $2.64 and a stock price of $133.51. The current dividend yield is 35% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.13%. The current dividend yield is 1.98% based on dividends of $2.64 and a stock price of $133.51. The current dividend yield is 37% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.80. The current P/S Ratio is 8.67 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $866, Revenue per Share of $15.40 and a stock price of $133.51. The current ratio is 81% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively expensive. The dividend yield tests show this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the tests show the same thing. I see not a problem with any of the tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock has done well for its shareholders and it is a dividend growth stock. I see the low Liquidity Ratio as a problem, but overall, it is a good stock and it is going international. However, it would seem that this stock is relatively expensive at this time.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $142.86. This implies a total return o 8.98%, with 7.00% from capital gains and 1.98% from dividends.

The most recent analyst comments on Stock Chase is positive. Brian Paradza on Motley Fool thinks this company has strong wealth creation potential. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this company has good dividend prospects. Addison Kliewer on Bloomberg News says the best performing financials in the TSX it is the exchange itself. This stock rated a D score on Money Sense stocks of 2020.

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The last stock I wrote about was about was Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 15, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Ontario Securities Commission.... learn more on Tuesday, July 14, 2020 around 5 pm.

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