I do not own this stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc (TSX-BLDP, NASDAQ-BLDP). Back in 1997, I read about Ballard and fell in love with the idea of cars running with fuel cells. I could help save the environment and also make some money. It was very attractive. I sold this stock in 2006 because it had lost its attraction. It did not seem that Ballard fuel cells would be in any car anytime soon. I was ahead in 2000, but the stock started to fall in October 2000 and is just now recovering.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed if I had kept this stock, after buying in 1997, I would have made a profit of 0.90% per year. This is the first time the stock is above what I paid for it. This is after almost 23 years.
The stock price has taken off. They have positive growth in Revenue, but not growth in Revenue per Share. As a shareholder it is Revenue per Share that counts. The Revenue for the past 5 and 10 year has grown at 9.12% and 8.57% per year. However, the Revenue per Share over the past 5 and 10 years is down by 2.71% and 2.03% per year. EPS and Cash Flow are still negative. The company has raised money by selling shares and outstanding shares are up by 12% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
This stock has never paid a dividend, so there is no dividend yield or Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are.
Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.01 and so is very good and very low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 3.56 and is very good. The Debt Ratio is 3.78 and is very good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 1.36 and 0.36 are low and good.
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 5 | 0.00% | 31.39% | 31.39% | 0.00% |
| 2009 | 10 | 0.00% | 16.65% | 16.65% | 0.00% |
| 2004 | 15 | 0.00% | 0.96% | 0.96% | 0.00% |
| 1999 | 20 | 0.00% | -7.13% | -7.13% | 0.00% |
| 1995 | 24 | 0.00% | 2.61% | 2.61% | 0.00% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 5 | 0.00% | 29.39% | 29.39% | 0.00% |
| 2009 | 10 | 0.00% | 14.28% | 14.28% | 0.00% |
| 2004 | 15 | 0.00% | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.00% |
| 1999 | 20 | 0.00% | -6.52% | -6.52% | 0.00% |
| 1995 | 24 | 0.00% | 2.86% | 2.86% | 0.00% |
The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative. The corresponding 10 year ratios are negative. The corresponding historical ratios are also negative. The current P/E Ratio is negative. The company has not made any profit. It is impossible to a P/E Ratio test.
My best guess at a Graham Price is $0.61. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.96, 3.45 and 4.81. The current P/GP Ratio is 31.26 based on a stock price of $19.06. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.68. The current P/B Ratio is 11.56 based on a stock price of $14.23, Book Value of $289M and Book Value per Share of $1.23. The current ratio is 331% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.
I cannot do a Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio test as the cash flow is negative and so the ratios are negative. I cannot do any dividend yield tests because there are no dividends.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.59. The current P/S Ratio is 28.04 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $119M, Revenue per Share of $0.51 and a stock price of $14.23. The current ratio is 680% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that the stock price is relatively expensive. This stock has recently taken off like a rocket.
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a highly speculative stock. It still remains to be seen if it will be a success or not. I bought it 1997 because I fell in love with the idea of what it was trying to do. I gave up on it in 2006 because I lost faith in the company. It is still a great idea. Whether or not it will be successful I think is still unknown. I do not regret having this stock as I still think it has great ideas. However, I will probably not invest in it again.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $27.22 ($20.28 US$). This implies a total return of $42.80% all from capital gains.
Analyst on Stock Chase are negative about his stock. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool talks about Ballard being a top performer. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the big increase in share price and that share price is rising faster than revenue. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about why he is not worried about the company’s cash burn. Zacks Equity Research on Yahoo Finance says the company is expected to beat earning estimates.
Ballard Power Systems Inc is a clean energy growth company. The company is engaged in proton exchange membrane fuel cell development and commercialization. The company's main business is the design, development, manufacture, sale, and service of fuel cell products for a variety of applications, focusing on motive power (material handling and buses) and stationary power (back-up power, supplemental power, and distributed generation). Its web site is here Ballard Power Systems Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Savaria Corporation (TSX-SIS, OTC-SISXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Loblaw Companies Ltd (TSX-L, OTC-LBLCF) ... learn more on Tuesday, August 4, 2020 around 5 pm.
Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Feeding the People by Rebecca Earle learn more...
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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