Money Show, Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux is founder of Tech Talk. His speech title was “Investing in Equity Markets Using a combination of Technical, Fundamental and Seasonal Analysis”.

The sites he mentioned were Equity Clock and Timing the Market. He talks first about the market moving in 16 year cycles. The latest two before our current one was of 1966 to 1982 which had volatility but the market did not progress any higher. The second period was 1983 to 1999 which was characterized by an up cycle movement of 1,000%. He said that our current cycle started in 2000, should last until to 2015. We will have volatility, but no up movement.

He says we should use fundamentals to decide on what to buy and what to sell. We should use Technical Analysis to decide on when to buy and when to sell. There are also seasonal trades.

September is generally bad because analysts are reducing earnings estimates, we have hurricanes, consumer sales are low and we have the anniversary of 9/11. Analysts reduced earnings estimates in September because of 2nd quarter results and this will happen this year. We are having hurricanes this year. Consumer sales are slow because we are over back to school sales of August and Christmas sales come later. Also, new electronics come out in October, so people wait for this. This year the 10th anniversary of 9/11, so it is also important. This all tells us that September will not be a good one.

Generally speaking for the S&P 500, you should buy October 28th and sell May 5th. These dates do very every year by 2 to 3 weeks, but I these are the average dates. The TSX has the same dates. For technical stocks, the up period is from October to the end of January. There are lots of new products this year, so this cycle should be good. For Financial stocks, there are two up periods. One is from the end of October to the end of December. The other period is from the end of February to the end of May.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on twitter.