Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. The stock price is currently cheap. Debt Ratios are mostly fine, but debt is high. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine for AFFO and FFO which are the important ones. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a reasonable REIT to buy and I would think you would buy it for diversification. It is currently cheap. The total returns to 2022 are low because the stock price is quite cheap. In past periods, it has down well for shareholders. Below is the total return to 2019. It has fallen on hard times because they are into Office real estate. It is, of course, a risk to buy a company when it is down.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	2.51%	10.43%	6.82%	3.61%
2009	10	1.92%	15.45%	10.41%	5.04%
2004	15	2.90%	15.23%	9.26%	5.98%
2003	16	4.21%	15.26%	9.14%	6.12%

I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed in 2015 were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the stock price on this REIT has fallen a lot over the past few years. Change in stock price year over year from 2020 (-27.35%), 2021 (16.18%), 2020 (-41.75%) and 2023 (15.39%). The stock price was $52.07 in 2019 and it is now $29.54, a drop of 43%. However, over the past year there has been a lot of insiders buying. Net insider buying is 0.05% where normal would be 0.01%.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,023.00 you would have bought 31 shares at $33.00 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $483.05 in dividends. The stock would be worth $793.60. Your total return would have been $1,276.65.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$33.00	$1,023.00	31	10	$483.05	$793.60	$1,276.65

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 6.09%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.68%, 4.05% and 4.72%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) with growth at 2.7% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 2.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine for AFFO and FFO which are the important ones. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 50% with 5 year coverage at 37%. The DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) for 2022 is 72% with 5 year coverage also at 72%. The DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) for 2022 is 80% with 5 year coverage at 83%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 56% with 5 year coverage at 56%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 67% with 5 year coverage at 69%.

Debt Ratios are mostly fine, but debt is high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2022 is too high at 1.18, but is better now at 1.02. Debt has been increasing. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is good at 2.20. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 2.49. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.67 and 0.67.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	2.67%	-4.67%	-9.46%	4.79%
2012	10	2.53%	2.72%	-2.51%	5.22%
2007	15	2.25%	7.81%	1.41%	6.39%
2003	19	4.02%	11.81%	3.69%	8.11%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.76, 10.58, and 13.24. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.07, 9.94 and 11.49. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.10, 11.23 and 13.60. The current P/E Ratio is 13.44 based on a stock price of $28.90 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $2.15. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.86, 19.56 and 20.94. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.05, 16.87 and 19.50. The current P/FFO Ratio is 11.61 based on FFO estimate for 2023 of $2.49 and a stock price of $28.90. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.09, 23.09 and 25.35. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.31, 19.75 and 22.64. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 13.32 based on AFFO estimate for 2023 of $2.17 and a stock price of $28.90. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $55.85 . The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.90 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.52 based on a stock price of $28.90. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.00. The current ratio is 0.52 based on a stock price of $28.90, Book Value of $7,123M, and Book Value per Share of $55.67. The current ratio is 48% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 17.89. The current ratio is 11.51 based on last 12 months Cash Flow of $321M, Cash Flow per Share of $2.51 and a stock price of $28.90. The current ratio is 36% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.72%. The current dividend yield is 6.23% based on a stock price of $28.90 and dividends of $1.80. The current dividend yield is 32% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.05%. The current dividend yield is 6.23% based on a stock price of $28.90 and dividends of $1.80. The current dividend yield is 54% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 8.73. The current P/S Ratio is 5.63 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $657M, Revenue per Share of $5.13 and a stock price of $28.90. The current ratio is 35% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio tests. All the other tests say the same thing except for the P/E Ratio test. However, for REITs, FFO and AFFO values are more relevant than EPS values.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (8). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $35.65. This implies a total return of $29.58% with 6.23% from dividends and 23.36% from capital gains based on a current stock price of $28.90.

Analysts are cautious about this stock on Stock Chase. They do not think that office space will ever be filled like prior to Covid. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool likes the high yield and month payment from this stock. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool talks about why you should be REITs. The company put out a press release on TMX about their 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street has a report via Yahoo on this stock. Simply Wall Street gives 4 warnings on this stock of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; large one-off items impacting financial results; profit margins (32.2%) are lower than last year (69.9%); and shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust engaged in the development, management, and ownership of primarily urban office environments across Canada's major cities. Most of the total square footage in the company's real estate portfolio is located in Toronto and Montreal. Its web site is here Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 15, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Banks and Ratios.... learn more on Tuesday, February 14, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Pacific Railway

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price is probably expensive. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate See my spreadsheet on Canadian Pacific Railway.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do like both the railway companies. I think that they are good long term investment. However, at present this stock is rather expensive. However, this price probably prices in the Kansas City Southern acquisition. Analysts are divided on their recommendations. So, it is probably unclear what a reasonable price is. A problem I see is the very low dividend yield.

I do not own this stock of Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP). It is a stock I held from 1987 to 1999 so I am following it. I also held it 2006 to 2011. I decided in 2011 to have only one railway stock and chose CN as my railway stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that shareholders have done very well with this stock. See chart below. Over the past 5 years, Total Return to the end of 2022 is very good at 27.38%, with 26.07% from capital gains and 1.31% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,009.00 you would have bought 50 shares at $20.18 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $244.50 in dividends. The stock would be worth $5,047.50. Your total return would have been $5,292.00.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$20.18	$1,009.00	50	10	$244.50	$5,047.50	$5,292.00

If you had invested in this company in December 1997, for $1,009.00 you would have bought 50 shares at and adjusted cost of $3.85 per share. In December 2022, after 25 years you would have received $1,820.91 in dividends. The stock would be worth $26,247.00. Your total return would have been $28,067.91.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$3.85	$1,001.00	260	25	$1,820.91	$26,247.00	$28,067.91

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at just 0.72%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0.96% , 0.96% and 1.25%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 12% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 14.4%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2022 for EPS is 20% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for 2022 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) 21% with 5 year coverage at 19%. The DPR for 2022 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 17% with 5 year coverage at 15%. The DPR for 2022 for Free Cash Flow (using the company’s FCF) is 19% with 5 year coverage at 27%. (There are differences in FCF calculation for dividend entities.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is low and good at 0.19. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.59 for 2022, but add in Cash Flow after dividends and it is fine at 1.66. The Debt Ratio is high and good at 2.12. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.89 and 0.89.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	12.33%	27.38%	26.07%	1.31%
2012	10	11.32%	18.56%	17.47%	1.10%
2007	15	10.08%	15.81%	14.73%	1.07%
2002	20	10.56%	16.15%	14.94%	1.22%
1997	25	11.68%	15.13%	13.96%	1.17%
1992	30	11.14%	16.96%	15.40%	1.56%
1988	34	7.36%	13.38%	12.16%	1.21%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.87, 19.64 and 23.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.21, 20.82 and 24.17. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.61, 15.77 and 15.98. The current P/E Ratio is 23.51 based on a stock price of $105.07 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $4.47. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I do have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.98, 20.00 and 25.02. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.60, 20.54 and 25.48. The current ratio is 23.45 based on a stock price of $105.07 and AEPS for 2023 of $4.48. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $64.90 . The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are1.71, 2.04 and 2.35. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.62 based on a stock price of $105.07. The current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.44. The current P/B Ratio is 2.51 based on a stock price of $105.07, Book Value of $38,886M and Book Value per Share of $41.79. The current ratio is 54% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I have also a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $44.90. This implies a P/B Ratio of 2.34 based on a stock price of $105.07 and Book Value of $41,780M. This ratio is 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.58. The current P/CF Ratio 18.21 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $5.77, Cash Flow of $5,369M and a stock price of $105.07. The current ratio is 34% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.25%. The current dividend yield is 0.72% based on a stock price of $105.70 and dividends of $0.76. The current dividend yield is 42% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.96%. The current dividend yield is 0.72% based on a stock price of $105.70 and dividends of $0.76. The current dividend yield is 24% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.35. The current P/S Ratio is 8.57 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $11,404M, Revenue per Share of $12.26 and a stock price of $105.07. The current ratio is 60% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The other tests varied from cheap for the P/B Ratio test to reasonable and above the median for the P/E Ratio test.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (13), Buy (5), Hold (11) and Underperform (1). The consensus is a Buy, but the recommendations cover a very broad range. The 12 month stock price consensus is $115.12. This implies a total return of 10.29% with 9.57% from capital gains and 0.72% from dividends based on a stock price of $105.07

Analysts say on Stock Chase to buy on weakness. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense list. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks that the Kansas City Southern acquisition will pay huge rewards. Adam Othman on Motley thinks this stock is a winner no matter what the market does. The company put out a Press Release on their 2022 results. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance put out a report on this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5, and has one warning of has a high level of debt

Canadian Pacific is a Class-1 railroad operating on more than 12,500 miles of track across most of Canada and into parts of the Midwestern and Northeastern United States. Its web site is here Canadian Pacific Railway.

The last stock I wrote about was about was AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... learn more on Monday, February 13, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

AGF Management Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. Dividend growth has restarted. Debt Ratios are good. The stock price is reasonable but above the median. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on AGF Management Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The company hit a peak in 2007 and then had problems. They continued to increase the dividends long after they should have frozen them or cut them. Revenue is still some 40% below its peak of 2007. I did hold this company from 2001 to 2008 and had a total return of 2% per year. Shareholders have not done well over the past 25 years. See the Total Return chart below. I would not be interested in holding this company again.

I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF). I used to own this stock. I bought it in 2001 and sold half in 2006 and the rest in 2008. It used to be a dividend growth stock, but has not been one for some time now. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock is doing better over the last 5 years than over the previous 5 year (i.e., years 6 to 10). For Example, over the past 5 years EPS has grown 50% and 8.5% per year and over the past 10 years, EPS grew 75% or 5.7% per year. The exception is for stock price which is still going lower.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	14.41%	1.04%
5	EPS Growth	50.00%	8.45%
5	Net Income Growth	28.52%	5.15%
5	Cash Flow Growth	7.44%	1.44%
5	Dividend Growth	21.88%	4.04%
5	Stock Price Growth	-21.60%	-3.84%
10	Revenue Growth	-4.34%	-0.84%
10	EPS Growth	74.55%	5.73%
10	Net Income Growth	27.53%	2.46%
10	Cash Flow Growth	160.00%	10.03%
10	Dividend Growth	-176.92%	-9.68%
10	Stock Price Growth	-30.62%	-2.64%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,001.92 you would have bought 101 shares at $9.92 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $505.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $714.07. Your total return would have been $1,219.07. Dividend payments stopped shareholders from losing money.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$9.92	$1,001.92	101	10	$505.00	$714.07	$1,219.07

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.42%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.56% and 6.36%. The historical dividend yield is moderate at 4.66%. Lately, dividends have been increasing at a low rate (below 8% per year) at 4% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 11%. But as you can see from the Total Return chart below, there were several years when the dividends were decreasing.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 41% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 27% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (figures provided by the company) for 2022 is 37% with 5 year coverage at 52%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 0.05 and so low and good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is good at 1.62. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is good at 4.04. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are low and good at 1.33 and 0.33.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	4.04%	1.49%	-2.87%	4.37%
2012	10	-9.68%	2.66%	-3.33%	5.99%
2007	15	-4.52%	-4.91%	-9.00%	4.09%
2002	20	2.15%	1.98%	-3.85%	5.83%
1997	25	6.28%	5.17%	-1.03%	6.20%
1992	30	6.44%	15.52%	5.01%	10.50%
1990	32	6.02%	16.08%	5.62%	10.46%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.89, 7.04 and 7.31. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.89, 9.76 and 11.63. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.21, 13.94 and 18.42. The current P/E Ratio is 7.25 based on a stock price of $9.06 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.25. the current ratio is below the low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $21.20. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.38, 0.46 and 0.56. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.43 based on a stock price of $9.06. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.50. The current P/B Ratio is 0.57 based on a stock price of $9.06, Book Value of $1,031M, and Book Value per Share of $15.99. The current P/B Ratio is 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $17.40. This implies a ratio of 0.52 with a stock price of $9.06 and a Book Value of $1,122M. This ratio is 4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.63. The current ratio is 9.85 based on a stock price of $9.06, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $0.92 and Cash Flow of $59M. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.66%. The current dividend yield is 4.42% based on a stock price of $9.06 and dividends of $0.40. The current dividend yield is 5% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.36%. The current dividend yield is 4.42% based on a stock price of $9.06 and dividends of $0.40. The current dividend yield is 31% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. A problem is that dividends were being cut some 70% in 2015 and then were flat until 2022 when the company again started to raise them.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.10. The current P/S Ratio is 1.23 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $474M, Revenue per Share of $7.35 and a stock price of $9.06. The current ratio is 12% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but above the median. This shows up in the historical median dividend yield test and the P/S Ratio test. The problem with dividend yield tests, especially the 10 year one is the cut in dividends in 2015.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $9.34. This implies a total return of 7.51% with 3.09% from capital gains and 4.42% from dividends.

This company is not well followed on Stock Chase. However, the two entries for 2022 show it is not well liked. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense list. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thought this stock was a buy in 2021. This stock is not well followed on Motley Fool. The company put out a Press Release about their 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance talk about who owns this company. Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance talk about dividends on this stock. Simply Wall Street has one warning of significant insider selling over the past 3 months for this stock.

AGF Management is a Canada-based asset manager with operations and investments in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Asia. Its web site is here AGF Management Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP) ... learn more on Friday, February 10, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy February 2023 .... learn more on Thursday, February 9, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian National Railway

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price is probably still reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Canadian National Railway.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It is probably a good idea for a dividend growth portfolio to have either this stock or Canadian Pacific Railway (TSX-CP, NYSE-CP). I have had this stock for 17 years and I have been pleased with it. The stock price is probably still reasonable.

I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that revenue was expected to go up 7.6% to $15,578M, but instead it went up 18% to 17,107M.

Also, I noticed that dividends over both the 5 and 10 year period has grown faster than any other item. This is not sustainable. The next fastest growth has been Stock Price. This is also not sustainable. You would think that both will have to slow down in the future. See chart below. However, the dividend payout ratios are currently moderate at 39% for 2022 with 5 year coverage at 36%. Analysts think that the return over the next year will only be around 9% and that is lower than in the past. See chart on total return below.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	31.18%	5.58%
5	AEPS Growth	49.50%	8.37%
5	Net Income Growth	-7.15%	-1.37%
5	Cash Flow Growth	20.87%	3.86%
5	Dividend Growth	77.58%	12.17%
5	Stock Price Growth	55.18%	9.19%
10	Revenue Growth	72.45%	5.60%
10	AEPS Growth	165.48%	10.26%
10	Net Income Growth	90.97%	6.68%
10	Cash Flow Growth	117.88%	8.10%
10	Dividend Growth	290.67%	14.60%
10	Stock Price Growth	256.12%	13.54%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,038.80 you would have bought 23 shares at $45.17 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $412.16 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,699.32. Your total return would have been $4,111.48.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$45.17	$1,038.80	23	10	$412.16	$3,699.32	$4,111.48

I have held this stock for just over 17 years and have made a total return of 15.73% per year 13.68% from capital gains and 2.05% from dividends. On this stock, I am making a yield of 16% on my original investments. My original yield was 1.39%. It is a low yield stock with good growth.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.98%. The 5, 10 and historical yields are low (below 2%) at 1.88%, 1.71% and 1.64%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% growth per year) at 12% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase will be 2023 and it was for 7.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 39% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 39% with the year coverage also at 39%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 29% with 5 year coverage at 36%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good a low at 0.13. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is low at 0.84 but if you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is good at 2.06. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.73. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.13 and 1.13.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	12.17%	11.05%	9.19%	1.86%
2012	10	14.60%	15.64%	13.54%	2.09%
2007	15	13.83%	15.77%	13.74%	2.04%
2002	20	16.29%	16.64%	14.57%	2.07%
1997	25	15.69%	16.43%	14.48%	1.95%
1996	26	15.66%	16.75%	14.76%	2.00%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.26, 20.97 and 23.26. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.82, 18.32 and 21.00. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.22, 14.21 and 16.51. The current P/E Ratio is 20.34 based on a stock price of $159.84 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $7.86. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. It is almost expensive.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share Data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.06, 20.91 and 23.19. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.79, 19.26 and 21.77. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 20.47 based on AEPS estimate for 2023 of $7.81 and a stock price of $159.84. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $74.83. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.66, 1.94 and 2.19. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.14 based on a stock price of $159.84. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.35. The current P/B Ratio is 5.02 based on a stock price of $159.84, Book Value of $21,384M and a Book Value per Share of $31.87. The current ratio is 15% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2023 of $31.40. This gives a ratio of 5.09 based on a stock price of $159.84 and Book Value of $21,069M. This ratio is 17% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.06. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.27 based on a stock price of $159.84, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $11.20 and Cash Flow of $7,515M. The current ratio is 9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.64%. The current dividend yield is 1.98% based on a stock price of $159.84 and dividends of $3.16. The current yield is 20.5% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.71%. The current dividend yield is 1.98% based on a stock price of $159.84 and dividends of $3.16. The current yield is 16% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.66. The current P/S Ratio is 6.10 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $17,570M, Revenue per Share of $26.18 and a stock price of $159.84. The current ratio is 7.8% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The 10 year median dividend yield test says the stock price is reasonable and below the median and the P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable and above the median. Most of the other testing, except for the historical median dividend yield test says the stock price is reasonable and above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7), Buy (2), Hold (22) and Underperform (1). The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $171.05. This implies a total return of 8.99% with 7.01% from capital gains and 1.98% from dividends.

Analyst on Stock Chase like this stock and think it is a Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is not on Money Sense’s 2022 list. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool says this is a good stock to own in tough times. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks this is a stock to buy and hold. The company announces its fourth quarter of 2022 results via Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance talks about the last dividend increase for this company. Simply Wall Street has one warning of has a high level of debt.

Canadian National's railway spans Canada from coast to coast and extends through Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABST, NASDAQ-ABST) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 8, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks February 2023.... learn more on Tuesday, February 7, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Absolute Software Corporation

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. The stock price might be reasonable. There are few good Debt Ratios and this is a problem. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine for Cash Flow, but should the company pay a dividend if they cannot earn a profit? See my spreadsheet on Absolute Software Corporation.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This would not be a company I would invest in. It is not a dividend growth stock. I wonder if it makes sense for this stock to pay a dividend at all. I do not like most of the Debt Ratios and I find the debt too high. I also do not like the fact that it is difficult to do valid stock price testing. The price would seem to be at a reasonable level. I think that this is a stock to buy for capital gains, but there are lots of risks involved.

I do not own this stock of Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABST, NASDAQ-ABST). The Motley Fool published an article by Matt DiLallo in December 2014 called The 10 Best Stocks in Canada. It is basically a list of the best-performing Canadian stocks of the past decade.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the EPS loss was due to cost that were higher than Revenue, with a Ratio of 1.04. Interest expense is up because of the debt going from $0 to 264M. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is now 0.60. Also, the Intangible assets went from $0 to $117.54M and the Goodwill went from $1.10M to $240.76M. The Intangible and Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio went from 0.00 to 0.85. On July 1, 2021, the Company completed the acquisition of 100% of NetMotion Software Inc.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,004.70 you would have bought 197 shares at $5.10 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $577.21 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,785.58. Your total return would have been $3,362.79.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$5.10	$1,004.70	197	10	$577.21	$2,785.58	$3,362.79

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.01%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 3.05%, 3.46% and 3.46%. The last dividend increase was in 2017 and dividends have been flat since. Dividends are paid in CDN$ although the reporting for this company is in US$.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine for Cash Flow, but should the company pay a dividend if they cannot earn a profit? The DPR for EPS for 2022 is negative because of an earnings loss. The 5 year coverage is 1,297%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 31% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 33% with 5 year coverage at 56%.

There are few good Debt Ratios and this is a problem. The company took on Long Term Debt in 2022 and their Long Term Debt/Market Cap went from 0.00 to 0.60. They also took on Intangibles and goodwill assets in 2022. Their Intangibles Goodwill/Market Cap Ratio went from 0.00 to 0.81. They also have debt of Deferred Revenue, which really complicates things.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is low at 0.78. Adding in Cash Flow after dividends just gets you to 0.94. If you consider Deferred Revenue, then the ratio is 3.37. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.01. I like to see this ratio at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are really high at 173.68 and 172.68. I prefer these to be under 2.00 and 1.00. So, these last ratios are awful. If you account for Deferred Revenue, they are 2.60 and 2.59, so the Debt/Equity Ratio is still too high.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2022 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.00%	19.09%	15.50%	3.59%
2012	10	5.36%	14.44%	10.74%	3.70%
2007	15		-0.50%	-1.72%	1.22%
2002	20		27.80%	24.38%	3.42%
2000	22		18.94%	16.85%	2.09%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2022 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below. The differences in the CDN$ and US$ return is due to currency exchange and the stock is not as often traded in the US market.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.14%	17.44%	13.88%	3.55%
2012	10	3.14%	10.84%	7.49%	3.35%
2007	15		-2.51%	-3.69%	1.18%
2002	20		25.91%	22.51%	3.40%
2001	21		23.65%	20.72%	2.93%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 29.42, 34.32, and 42.22. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 40.32, 51.17 and 61.88. The corresponding historical ratios are negative and so of no value. The current P/E Ratio is negative and so of no value. The P/E Ratio for 2024 is 239.17 and the P/E Ratio for 2025 is 42.71. This last ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. However, the P/E Ratios are very high. Also, the further out an estimate is, the more likely it is to be very wrong. So, this is not a good test.

I estimate a Graham Price of $2.75. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.41, 3.27 and 3.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.79 based on a stock price of $15.93. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

This test does not improve with the 2024 P/GP Ratio of 6.51 with a Graham Price of $2.45. The Graham Price for 2025 is 5.79 and will give a P/GP Ratio of 2.75 based on a current stock price of $15.93. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It has the same problem as with the P/E Ratio testing in that the further we go out with estimates the more unreliable they tend to be.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.59 when I look at Book Value excluding Deferred Revenue. The current P/B Ratio is 3.06 based on a stock price of $11.96 and Book Value of $200M. The current P/B Raito is 18% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 16.00. The current P/CF Ratio is 13.00 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $0.92, Cash Flow of $47M and a stock price of $11.96. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.46%. The current dividend yield is 2.01% based on dividends of $0.32 and a stock price of $15.93. The current yield is 42% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. A problem with this testing is that the dividends have been flat for 6 years.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.46%. The current dividend yield is 2.01% based on dividends of $0.32 and a stock price of $15.93. The current yield is 42% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. A problem with this testing is that the dividends have been flat for 6 years.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.77. The current P/S Ratio is 2.53 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $242M, Revenue per Share of $4.73 and a stock price of $11.96. The current is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price might be reasonable. The P/S Ratio test is good and it shows the stock price is reasonable. The other good test is the P/CF test which also shows the stock price as reasonable. There are problems with most of the other testing. It is never a good sign when there are problems with most of the testing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.85 ($11.15 US$). This implies a loss of 4.75% with a capital loss of 6.76% and dividends of 2.01% based on a current price of $15.93. the recommendations and 12 month consensus on the stock price seems at odds.

Analyst on Stock Chase think this stock is a Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense List. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool is impressed with the recent run up in this stock. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool thinks that this company can be a solid long-term stock one can buy under $20. The company put out a Press Release on their 2022 results. A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance looks at this stock and says it is not a good dividend stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It also lists 4 warnings of negative shareholders equity; has a high level of debt; dividend of 1.99% is not well covered; and shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Absolute Software Corp is engaged in the development, marketing, and provision of a cloud-based endpoint visibility and control platform that provides management and security of computing devices. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States and also has a presence in Canada and the Rest of world. Its web site is here Absolute Software Corporation.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more on Monday, February 6, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Exco Technologies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price is cheap. Dividend Growth Industrial. Debt Ratios are good. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. See my spreadsheet on Exco Technologies Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a small industrial company that seems beaten up. It would be a risky buy. They are still increasing their dividends, so the company has confidence in the future. The price is currently cheap.

I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed analysts expected sales to go up almost 20% to $552M, but they only went up 6% to $490M. Analysts also expected the EPS to go up 29% to 1.26, but instead EPS went down 50% to $0.49. Their costs went up more than the revenue. Cost to Revenue Ratio for 2021 was 0.89 and for 2022 was 0.95. Their interest expense went up the most.

There was insider buying over the past year. The Net Insider Buying Ratio is 5.81% where generally this ratio is between 0.01% to -0.01%. For example, the CEO increased his shareholding by 67% and one director increased his share holdings by 25%.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,005.71 you would have bought 163 shares at $6.17 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $497.56 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,255.10. Your total return would have been $1,752.66.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$6.17	$1,005.71	163	10	$497.56	$1,255.10	$1,752.66

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.53%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.38%, 3.37% and 2.89%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 6% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 5%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 85% with 5 year coverage at 49%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 32% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 219% with 5 year coverage at 50%. (Note: I am using FCF provided by the company.)

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is low and good at 0.32. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is high and good at 2.27. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is high and good at 2.53. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are low and good at 1.65 and 0.65.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	6.01%	-1.23%	-5.36%	4.13%
2012	10	11.88%	6.54%	2.24%	4.30%
2007	15	13.76%	8.33%	4.57%	3.76%
2002	20	11.78%	2.96%	0.62%	2.33%
1997	25		3.55%	1.61%	1.94%
1992	30		7.57%	5.51%	2.06%
1990	32		11.80%	9.28%	2.52%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.73, 9.75 and 12.67. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.06, 11.60 and 14.17. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.73, 13.17 and 15.68. These are consistent so it makes it a more valid test. The current P/E Ratio is 10.41 based on a stock price of $7.60 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.73. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $11.76. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.66, 0.80 and 0.97. The current ratio is 0.65 based on a stock price of $7.60. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.28. The current P/B Ratio is 0.90 based on a stock price of $7.60, Book Value of $328M and Book Value per Share of $8.42. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.87. The current ratio is 8.12 based on Cash Flow estimate for 2023 of $36.4M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.94 and a stock price of $7.60. This ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.89%. The current dividend yield is 5.53% based on a dividend of $0.42 and a stock price of $7.60. The current ratio is 91% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.37%. The current dividend yield is 5.53% based on a dividend of $0.42 and a stock price of $7.60. The current ratio is 64% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.77. The current P/S ratio is 0.51, based on a stock price of $7.60, Revenue estimate for 2023 of $580M and Revenue per share of $14.91. The current ratio is 33% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is cheap and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Most of the other tests say it is cheap or reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $10.63. This implies a total return of 45.39% with 39.87% from capital gains and 5.53% from dividends based on a current stock price of $7.60.

The company seems to be liked on Stock Chase by analysts. It is not well followed and the last entry is a Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense List. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this company has a bright future. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is a good dividend stock, cheap. The company put out a press release via Glove Newswire about their 2022 results. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about who owns this company.

Exco Technologies Ltd is a designer, developer, and manufacturer of dies, moulds, components and assemblies, and consumable equipment for the die-cast, extrusion, and automotive industries. The company reports in two business segments namely, the Casting and Extrusion segment and Automotive Solutions segment. It generates maximum revenue from the Automotive Solutions segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States. Its web site is here Exco Technologies Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABST, NASDAQ-ABST) ... learn more on Friday, February 3, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Future Crunch.... learn more on Thursday, February 2, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Shaw Communications Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Telecom. Stock price is relatively expensive. It will probably be bought by Rogers. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth non-existent. See my spreadsheet on Shaw Communications Inc .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Since it will be bought by Rogers, I see no point in a small individual investor investing in this stock. The stock price is close to the buy out price. The gain has been made already. There is not much upside for small investors. It will be interesting how this all turns out. If for any reason the sale does not go through, the price for this stock will fall.

I do not own this stock of Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). I am following this stock because it was a stock on Investment Reporter’s list, a MPL Communications Publication.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they site does not work very well. Menu lines at top right do not work. I could not open previous annual reports as they would not come up. Good job that there are other places to find Annual Reports, like Annual Reports. I also could not find the list of Directors or the Leadership and had to google to get this information. This is supposed to be a tech company selling internet services? The site was most annoying.

The other thing to note is that Rogers Communications Inc (TSX-RCI.B, NYSE-RCI) is trying to buy Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). It will probably happen. I also noticed that last year in estimates, analysts expected the company to start to raise dividends in 2023. Now they do not see any raising of dividends any time soon.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,004.96 you would have bought 44 shares at $22.84 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $505.67 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,716.44. Your total return would have been $2,222.11.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$22.84	$1,004.96	44	10	$505.67	$1,716.44	$2,222.11

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to4% ranges) at 2.98%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.39% and 4.27%. The historical dividend yield is low (below 2%) at just 1.66%. I have dividend information covering 32 years and until 2008, the dividend yield was below 2%. The dividends have been flat since 2017. It does not look like any analyst expect future dividend increases.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 78% with 5 year coverage at 94%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 30% with 5 year coverage at 32%. There is disagreement about what the Free Cash Flow (FCF) is. However, for the FCF put out by the company, the DPR for 2022 is 73% with 5 year coverage also at 73%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is good at 0.27. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.86. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it is 1.49 and not quite up to the ratio I like of 1.50. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.65. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2022 are fine at 2.53 and 1.53.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.00%	10.02%	6.34%	3.68%
2012	10	2.29%	9.52%	5.50%	4.02%
2007	15	5.99%	6.86%	3.40%	3.47%
2002	20	21.28%	12.27%	8.16%	4.11%
1997	25	18.37%	14.29%	10.41%	3.88%
1992	30	15.68%	12.99%	9.93%	3.07%
1990	32	15.29%	14.78%	11.44%	3.34%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.96, 18.42 and 20.93. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.44, 15.96 and 18.42. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.58, 16.53 and 19.08. The current P/E Ratio is 25.49 based on a stock price of $39.76 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.56. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $21.22 . The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.18, 1.31 and 1.48. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.87 based on a stock price of $39.76. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.42. The current P/B Ratio is 3.10 based on a stock price of $39.76, Book Value of $6,411M and a Book Value per Share of $12.83. The current ratio is 38% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2023 of $13.00. This implies a book value of $6,496M and a P/B Ratio 3.06 based on a stock price of $39.76. The is ratio of 3.06 is 26% above the 10 year median P/B Ratio of 2.42. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.10. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.56 based on Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) estimate for 2023 of $4.16, Cash Flow of $2,079M, and a stock price of $39.76. The current ratio is 18% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.66%. The current dividend yield is 2.98% based on dividends of $1.185 and a stock price of $39.76. The current yield is 80% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year dividend yield of 4.27%. The current dividend yield is 2.98% based on dividends of $1.185 and a stock price of $39.76. The current yield is 30% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.52. The current P/S Ratio is 3.65 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $5,444M, Revenue per Share of $10.89 and a stock price of $39.76. This ratio is 45% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The 10 year dividend yield test says this and is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. I am disregarding the historical dividend yield test, as yields change from low to moderate in around 2006 and around 16 years ago and so quite a while ago. All the other testing is supporting an expensive stock price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Hold (10) recommendations. The 12 month stock price target is $40.17. This implies a total return of 4.01% with 1.03% from capital gains and 2.98% from dividends based on a current stock price of $39.76.

Most comments from analysts on Stock Chase is about the Rogers’ deal. They think it will close. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense list with a C Rating. Vineet Kulkarni on Motley Fool talks about Rogers and the deal to buy Shaw. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool talks about Shaw jumping in price after the Canadian competition tribunal approved the proposed Rogers Communications-Shaw merger deal. The company put out a press release on Global Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2022.

The company put out a press release on Global Newswire about their first quarter for 2023. There is an article from the Financial Post on Yahoo Finance about the Commissioner of Competition’s appeal of a tribunal decision to approve their $26-billion merger. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and list one risk of a high level of debt.

Shaw Communications is a Canadian cable company that is one of the biggest providers of internet, television, and landline telephone services in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northern Ontario. Its web site is here Shaw Communications Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 1, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Hydro One Ltd.... learn more on Tuesday, January 31, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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