Power Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. This stock is cheap or close to being cheap. It is mostly into Life Insurance and it will do better as interest rates rise. The time to buy good companies is when they are cheap, not when the stock price goes high. See my spreadsheet on Power Financial Corp.

I own this stock of Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF). When I sold some bonds in 2001, I had money to spend. This was a stock on my hit list and was selling at a reasonable price. This stock was on Mike Higgs' dividend growth stocks and that is why I started a spreadsheet to investigate this stock in the first place.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that my total return on this stock is rather low at just 7.04% per year over the 17 years I have had this stock. But if you hold stocks for the long term, companies will go through some tough times and Life Insurance companies have since 2008. However, I am in the stock market for dividends and of my total return I got 4.75% in dividends per year over these 17 years. I am fine with this.

I did know very low interest rates would harm Life Insurance companies. I also knew that things like very low interest rates would last a lot longer than everyone ever thinks they will.

The current dividend yield is good at 5.81%. The yield was in the moderate range prior to the 2008 bear market. The 5, 10 and historical yields are 4.73%, 4.80% and 3.43%. Prior to 2008, the dividend growth was moderate to good. However, dividend increases stopped in 2010 and did not resume until 2015.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 55% with 5 year coverage at 54%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 16% with 5 year coverage at 16% also.

Debt Ratios are fine. Since this is a life insurance company you look at what assets and investments that they have to cover their long term obligations. For this company the Obligation/Asset Ratio is 0.90 and this is fine. (This means that obligations are 90% of assets, so this is good.) I get a Liquidity Ratio of 2.16, but this is not an important ratio for a life insurance company. The Debt Ratio is 1.08 and for Life Insurance companies, like banks any ratio about 1.04 for fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

I bought this stock at various times between 2001 and 2011. My total return is 7.04% per year with 4.75% per year from Dividends and capital gains of 2.29% per year. I am a long term investor and I plan to hold on to this stock. I expect that in the future that capital gains portion will go high and dividend portion will moderate.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	4.10%	-1.31%	-6.26%	4.94%
2008	10	2.53%	6.70%	0.78%	5.92%
2003	15	7.21%	5.32%	0.28%	5.04%
1998	20	10.10%	6.82%	2.11%	4.71%
1993	25	12.03%	14.13%	7.49%	6.64%
1991	27	12.01%	16.82%	9.23%	7.59%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.25, 11.22 and 12.19. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.31, 11.88 and 13.16. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.25, 12.00 ad 14.78. The current P/E Ratio is 8.84 based on a stock price of $31.38 and 2019 EPS estimate of $3.55. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $45.80. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 0.92 and 1.02. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.69 based on a stock price of $37.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.54. The current/B Ratio is 1.2 based on Book Value of $18,750, Book Value per Share of $24.26 and a stock price of $31.38. The current P/B Ratio is some 22% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.43%. The current dividend yield is 5.81% based on dividends of $1.82 and a stock price of $31.38. The current yield is 69% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.58. The current P/S Ratio is 0.50 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $45,261M, Revenue per Share of $63.38 and a stock price of $31.38. The current ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is mostly coming up cheap. Although you cannot ignore the P/S Ratio test which says it is close the cheap, but not quite there. This is a conglomerate, and they usually are priced at a discount, however, my testing takes that into account.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $34.43. this implies a total return of $15.53% with 9.72% from capital gains and 5.81% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Some analysts like this stock and one says he prefers Sun Life. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool likes this stock for its yield. The site of Market Beat has some interesting date on this stock. Nelson Smith on Motley Fool thinks the company is a value trap. A writerSimply Wall Street thinks this company is cheap. Norman Levine on BNN Bloomberg discusses this stock.

Power Financial, a subsidiary of Power Corporation of Canada, is a diversified management and holding company with interests in the financial-services industry through its controlling interests in Great-West Lifeco and IGM Financial. It also has holdings in Pargesa, a diversified industrial group based in Europe. Its web site is here Power Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TFI International (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ag Growth International (TSX-AFN, OTC-AGGZF) ... learn more on Friday, May 10, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write Something to Buy May 2019.... learn more on Thursday, May 09, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

TFI International Inc

Bye the way, I bought some 500 more shares of McCoy Global Inc (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF) this morning at $0.78 per share. It is a possibility I have throwing good money after bad. However, our oil patch seems to be doing a bit better. McCoy services oil and gas industry. However, I doubt if our oil patch will truly recover until we can build more pipelines. It is anyone’s guess on what that will happen.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Stock price is on the expensive side. The company gives a lot in stock options, but it is a techy sort of company. The stock options run around 2 to 3% per year and that is high. See my spreadsheet on TFI International Inc.

I own this stock of TFI International (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF). I read a report called "6 Canadian Dividend Stocks That Fly Under the Radar" by John Heinzl in April of 2013. This is one of the stocks mentioned. There was also a good review of this stock by Advice Hotline by MPL Communications. I bought this stock in 2017 because I liked the spreadsheet. It is a stock recommended my MPL Communications.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they give out a lot of options. Insiders seem not to retain options so it appears that insider are selling lots of shares. The difference between the Basic and Diluted EPS is stock options.

This company was an income trust, so its dividends were higher as all income trust were. It cut its dividends when it became a corporation. It started to increase dividends again in 2011. The current dividend is moderate at 2.20%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are higher at 2.43, 2.52% and 3.56%. The median yield since the company became a corporation is 2.45%.

As you can see from the chart below, the dividends have been growing recently. The older ones are low to no grow because of the dividend cut in 2008 and 2009. The last dividend increase was for 14.3% and it occurred this year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 25%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 11% with 5 year coverage at 13%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap ratio for 2018 is fine at 0.48. The Liquidity Ratio is low at just 1.08. It is good when you add in cash flow after dividends as it becomes 1.80. This low Liquidity Ratio could be a vulnerability. The Debt ratio is good at 1.64. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 2.57 and 1.57 are normal.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Total returns are now lower. This is mostly because of the lower dividends associated with this company’s move to a corporation. The dividends are going to be lower in the future to probably what has been happening in the past 5 years.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	10.07%	9.36%	6.92%	2.43%
2008	10	0.33%	29.62%	23.87%	5.75%
2003	15	-2.02%	16.49%	9.11%	7.38%
1998	20	-1.89%	23.61%	13.02%	10.58%
1993	25		22.81%	14.64%	8.17%
1991	27		17.77%	12.39%	5.38%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.58, 16.49 and 19.41. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.55, 14.34 and 17.22. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.84, 11.66 and 13.47. The current P/E Ratio is 12.14 based on a stock price of $43.58 and 2019 EPS estimate of $3.59. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $37.69. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 1.17 and 1.39. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.16 based on a stock price of $43.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.05. The current P/B Ratio is 2.48 based on Book Value of $1,483M, Book Value per Share of $17.579 and a stock price of $43.58. The current ratio is some 21% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.56% and a median dividend yield since the company has been a corporation at 2.45%. The current dividend yield is 2.20% based on dividends of $0.96 and a stock price of $43.58. The current yield is lower than both the historical at 38% lower and the median since a corporation at 10%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.61. The current P/S Ratio is 0.69 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $5,320, Revenue per Share of $63.06 and a stock price of $43.58. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is on the expensive side. I do not think you can ignore the P/S Ratio or P/B Ratio tests which point to a rather expensive stock price. The P/GP Ratio test is a good one and it points to a reasonable price but close to the median. The dividend yield test is not a good one because the company used to be an income trust. I do not particularly care for the P/E Ratio Test at any time.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (8), and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price is $53.36. This implies a total return of 24.64% with 22.49% from capital gains and 2.20% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. It is not well covered, but analysts like the company. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool likes the company, but feels it will fall hard in a down market. A Writer on Simply Wall Street likes how this stock has grown lately. Another writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the stock has lots of positives. Andrew Sebastian on Finance Daily talks about recent analyst’s reports..

TFI International Inc is a transportation and logistics company domiciled in Canada. The company organizes itself into four segments: package and courier, less-than-truckload, truckload, and logistics. The package and courier segment picks-up, transports, and delivers items across North America. Its web site is here TFI International Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was McCoy Global Inc (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF) ... learn more on Wednesday, May 08, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks May 2019.... learn more on Tuesday, May 07, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

McCoy Global Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Small Cap Industrial. The stock price is relatively cheap. There is insider buying. There was a return to profitability in the Third Quarter of 2018. The company has great debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on McCoy Global Inc.

I own this stock of McCoy Global Inc (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF). I decided to try out McCoy in 2011. They had just restored their dividend. I want to use it as a fuller stock in my TFSA account. For me a fuller stock is one that uses up bits of extra money in an account.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed There is a lot of red on the spreadsheet. It hit bottom in 2016 and has been improving since. There is lots of insider buying.

Currently they are not paying dividends. They have paid dividends in the past and expect that they will pay them again sometime in the future. They have even paid a special dividend. They have had earning loss in the last 4 years, so they are currently in no shape to pay dividends at this time.

The Dividend Payout Ratios have been erratic in pass, but they have cut their dividends whenever there has been earning losses. I suspect they will do the same in the future.

Debt Ratios are quite good and have always been. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good at 0.14 for 2018. The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 3.34 for 2018 with 5 year median at 3.81. This ratio has always been good on this stock. The Debt Ratio is very good at 3.09 with 5 year median at 4.46. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.48 and 0.48 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.00%	-30.86%	-31.90%	1.04%
2008	10	0.00%	3.95%	-2.96%	6.91%
2003	15	0.00%	20.77%	7.67%	13.10%
1998	20		0.30%	-3.41%	3.70%
1997	21		-2.60%	-5.59%	2.99%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are -2.32, -3.19 and -4.07. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 2.08, 3.32 and 4.15. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.08, 8.27 and 10.19. The current P/E Ratio is 6.00 based on a stock price of $0.78 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.13. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $2.07. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.47, 0.70 and 0.86. The current P/B Ratio is 0.38 based on a stock price of 0.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.22. The current P/B ratio is 0.53 based on a stock price of $0.78, Book Value of $40M, and Book Value per Share of $1.47. The current ratio is some 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.81. The current P/S Ratio is 0.34 based on 2019 Revenue of $62.5M, Revenue per Share of $2.27 and a stock price of $0.78. The current ratio is some 57% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The important test are the P/S Ratio and P/B Ratio tests. The P/E Ratio is rubbish, but this often happens.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $1.35. This implies a total return of $73.08% all from capital gain.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. This stock is not often followed. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider buying. A positive report on Newswire of the fourth quarterly results. A Writer on Simply Wall Street talk about who owns stock in this company. Nick Waddell on CanTech writes positively about this company in November 2018.

McCoy Global Inc is a provider of equipment and technologies used for making up threaded connections in the oil and gas industry. The company is engaged in the design, production, and distribution of capital equipment used in both off-shore and land drilling markets to handle makeup and measure tubular products, such as casing. Its web site is here McCoy Global Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Thomson Reuters Corp. (TSX-TRI, NYSE-TRI) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TFI International (TSX-TFII, OTC-TFIFF) ... learn more on Monday, May 6, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Thomson Reuters Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. It would seem that this stock is current relatively expensive. See my spreadsheet on Thomson Reuters Corp.

I own this stock of Thomson Reuters Corp (TSX-TRI, NYSE-TRI). I bought this stock in 1985 so I have had it for a very long time, almost 30 years. I bought stock to give portfolio some balance as I had too many financial stocks. Performance has always been mediocre.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed a lot of red on my spreadsheet. The only reason the EPS looks good is because of earnings from discontinued business. The same thing occurred in 2017 also.

Dividend yields are in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend yield is 2.33%, with 5, 10 and historical yields at 3.40%, 3.50% and 3.28%. The dividend increases were always in the low range (less than 8%). See the charts below. Dividends have been paid in US$ since 1989.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are acceptable. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2018 was 26% with a 5 year coverage of 70% in US$. The 2018 is low because of earnings from discontinue operations. The 5 year coverage gives a better idea. The 2019 DPR is expected to be around 305% with 5 year coverage at 80%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 135% with 5 year coverage at 56%.

Debt Ratios are all good this year. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good at 0.13. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 1.84 and is probably the best it has ever been. The 5 and 10 year median Liquidity Ratios are 0.79 and 0.81. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.18. The 5 year median is 1.92. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.85 and 0.85 with 5 year median ratios at 1.94 and 0.94.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2018 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

It would generally been the case that Canadian shareholders have done better in CDN$ than US shareholders in US$.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	4.25%	13.65%	8.30%	5.34%
2008	10	3.51%	9.34%	5.33%	4.00%
2003	15	3.50%	4.54%	1.61%	2.92%
1998	20	2.83%	5.80%	2.68%	3.11%
1993	25	4.16%	9.50%	5.35%	4.15%
1988	30	4.55%	7.88%	4.41%	3.47%
1985	33	5.39%	7.81%	4.45%	3.36%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.97%	7.48%	1.06%	4.87%
2008	10	2.52%	5.93%	3.20%	4.28%
2003	15	4.44%	3.79%	0.60%	3.19%
1998	20	4.03%	6.26%	2.81%	3.45%
1993	25	4.68%	8.91%	4.84%	4.07%
1990	28	4.60%	6.97%	3.64%	3.34%
1985	33	5.95%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.61, 15.54 and 17.47. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 17.09, 19.08 and 21.07. The historical median ratios are 4.81, 18.94 and 23.32. The current P/E Ratio is 129.94 based on a stock price of $82.20 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.63 CDN$ (or $0.47 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $18.79 CDN$. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.19, 1.43 and 1.60. The current P/GP Ratio is 4.38 based on a stock price of $82.20 CDN$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.93 US$. The current P/B Ratio is 3.40 based on a stock price of $61.84, Book Value of $9,226 and Book Value per Share of $18.18 in US$. The current ratio is some 76% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.28% US$. The current dividend yield is 2.33% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $61.84 US$. The current yield is some 29% below the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.31 US$. The current ratio is 5.23 based on a stock price of $61.84, 2019 Revenue estimate of $5,933M and Revenue per Share of $11.83 in US$. The current ratio is some 127% above the 10 year median ratio.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. All my stock price testing is showing the stock to be relatively expensive.

A big problem is that EPS was higher in the past. However, for both 2017 and 2018, a big part of EPS came from discontinued operations. For 2018 the break was $0.27 for continued operations and $5.64 for discontinued operations. For 2017 the break was $0.88 for continued operations and $1.06 for discontinued operations. Another thing is that the EPS estimates and Net Income estimates do not even come close to matching up. On the other hand, all the stock price testing I did show that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (7) and Hold (9) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $58.33 US$ or $78.51 CDN$. For Canadians this implies a total loss of 2.13% with a capital loss of 4.49% and dividends of 2.36%.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They think it has risen too fast and is currently rather expensive. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks it is a steady stock with decent dividends. A writer on Simply Wall Street finds the ROCE of this company uninspiring. David Scanlan in an article on Financial Post says that the company is returning to its roots. David Jagielski on Bay Street thinks it is time to sell this stock.

Thomson Reuters Corp is the result of the $17.6 billion megamergers of Canada's Thomson and the United Kingdom's Reuters Group in 2008. It has three main segments: financial and risk (54% of revenue), legal (30% of revenue), and tax and accounting (13% of revenue). Its web site is here Thomson Reuters Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about WSP Global Inc. (TSX-WSP, OTC-WSPOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be McCoy Global Inc (TSX-MCB, OTC-MCCRF) ... learn more on Friday, May 3, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Gluskin Sheff.... learn more on May 02, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

WSP Global Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. Stock price is reasonable to expensive. Dividend Payout Ratios are going down. I will be happier with this stock when dividends are increased but so far I have had a great total return. See my spreadsheet on WSP Global Inc.

I own this stock of WSP Global Inc (TSX-WSP, OTC-WSPOF). In Sept 2011 I rationalized my portfolio. I sold stocks that did not make it into my core and bought stocks that could of the same type. In this case selling Stantec and buying Genivar. In October 2011 I wanted to sell Enerflex because it is not a company I bought, but a distribution from Toromont. I bought more Genivar, now called WSP Global.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they still have not increase the dividends. This company used to be an income trust. Income Trust have higher possible distributions available for dividends. As an income trust they increased their dividends. Since becoming a corporation there has been no dividend increases.

So, the dividend has been flat since 2009. In 2009 they were paying more than their EPS in dividends, but the Dividend Payout Ratio have been coming down and for 2018, it was 63% and is expected to be 45% in 2019. On their site they say that dividend is appropriate based on the Company’s current earnings and financial requirements for the Company's operations.

The current dividend yield is moderate. It has mostly been moderate, but as an income trust the yield, in the past, went as high as 7.9%. The current yield is 2.07%. The 5, 10 and historical yields are all moderate at 3.56%, 4.86% and 4.74%. Since becoming a corporation, the median yield is 4.04%. If they do not raise the dividends, the yield will probably continue to drop.

The current Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 63% with 5 year coverage at 79%. The DPR for EPS has been dropping since this company changed into a corporation. The DPR for 2018 for CFPS is 285 with 5 year coverage at 38%. This DPR is dropping also.

Debt Ratios are fine with some vulnerability concerning the Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good at 0.24. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 1.24 with 5 year ratio at 1.26. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is still low at 1.44 with 5 year median ratio at 1.36. I prefer this ratio to be at least 1.50 for the sake of safety. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.72 with a 5 year median at 1.83. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.38 and 1.38 respectively. The 10 year median ratios are 2.04 and 1.04.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 13 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

I have made a total return of 21.74% on this stock with 17.62% from capital gains and 4.12% from dividends. The dividend portion of the total return will go down in the future.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.00%	17.02%	13.22%	3.80%
2008	10	2.21%	13.45%	8.82%	4.64%
2005	13	9.28%	21.44%	14.58%	6.86%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.97, 24.87 and 28.77. The corresponding 10 year median ratios are 16.01, 20.03 and 23.99. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.50, 19.46 and 23.42. The current P/E Ratio is 21.50 based on a stock price of $72.46 and 2019 EPS estimate of $3.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

I get a Graham Price of $48.64. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.95, 1.13 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.49 based on a stock price of $72.46. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.53. The current P/B Ratio is 2.32 based on a stock price of $72.46, Book Value of $3,259M, and Book Value per Share of $31.20. The current ratio is some 51% higher than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.74% and a median yield of $4.04% since it changed to a corporation. The current dividend yield is 2.07% based on dividends of $1.50 and a stock price of $72.46. The current yield is some 56% and 49% below these medians. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.09. The current P/S Ratio is 1.10 based on a stock price of $72.46, 2019 Revenue estimate of $6,872M and Revenue per Share of $65.80. The current ratio is 1.2% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median.

Results of stock price testing is reasonable to expensive. As always, you cannot ignore the P/S Ratio and this is showing that the stock price is relatively reasonable and around the median. This is also showing up in the P/E Ratio test, but the P/E Ratios are rather high. The one to be concerned about is the P/B Ratio. Book Value is basically increased by retained earnings. A good P/B Ratio is 1.50 and this stock has one of 2.32. It is not that high but it is getting high.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (7) and Hold (5) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $77.79. This implies a total return of $9.43% with 7.36% from capital gains and 2.07% from dividends based on a current stock price of $72.46.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They like the company but some think the price is currently too high. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool has a positive view of this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks that the ROCE for this company looks good. There is some interesting information on future trends for this tock on Wallet Investor. The company released its three year Global Strategic Plan on Global Newswire.

WSP Global Inc provides engineering and consulting services for transportation, buildings, energy, and other end markets. It operates in four business areas: transportation and infrastructure (approximately half of total sales), property and buildings; environment; and industrial and energy. The company designs and manages networks for rail, aviation, roads, ports, and other systems related to transportation. Its web site is here WSP Global Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Thomson Reuters Corp. (TSX-TRI, NYSE-TRI) ... learn more on Wednesday, May 1, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Yield Testing.... learn more on Tuesday, April 30, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Fortis Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Revenue per Share is not currently growing well. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the high side but not at an excessive price. There is vulnerability with some debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Fortis Inc.

I own this stock of Fortis Inc (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF). I bought this stock as Newfoundland Light and Power Co. Ltd. Class A shares in 1987. I bought more in 1995 and 1998. In 2005 I sold some Fortis from my RRSP account as I needed to get $20,000 in this account and I was concerned about the debt liquidity of this stock. However, this stock continues to be one of my big stock holdings.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that Revenue has been increasing well, but not Revenue per Share. For example, Revenue is up by 15.70% and 7.95% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, it is up by only 0.62% and is down by 1.63% per year over the past 5 and 10 years for Revenue per share.

For Revenue if, you look at 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 year, it is up by 13.72% and 12.81% per year. However, if you look at Revenue per Share and 5 year running averages, but it is down by 0.07% and up by 2.15% per year.

The above shows that revenue is not really growing. The difference between Revenue and Revenue per Share is because of the increase in shares over the past 5 and 10 years. The outstanding shares have increased by 14.99% and 9.745 per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There is nothing wrong with a company issuing new shares to raise money. But when you look for growth on this companies, you need to refer to per share values to see if there is growth.

The dividend yield for this company is moderate (2% to 4% range) and the increase in dividends is generally low (below 8%). The current dividend yield is 3.65%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 3.34%, 3.38% and 4.04%. The dividend growth rates are shown in the table below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 66.6% with 5 year coverage at 70%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 24.5% with 5 year coverage at 28%.

Some debt ratios make the stock vulnerable. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is too high at 1.19 for 2018. It has been above 1.00 for the last 4 years. This is a vulnerability. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.53 with 5 year median at 1.53 also. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.87 and 1.87 with 5 year medians at 2.89 and 1.89. These are typical for utilities.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 0.77. This means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends, it rises to 1.21. If you want a good one you have to add back in the current portion of the long term debt. This is a vulnerability for the company. It depends on cash flow to pay current liabilities. This is common with a lot of utility stocks. However, I would be happier if the ratio after adding in cash flow after dividends was at least 1.50.

On the other hand, the current liabilities are very low when compared to the assets of the company. The Asset/Current Liability ratio is 12.48. This is a good ratio.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 37 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	6.83%	12.57%	8.37%	4.20%
2008	10	5.60%	10.17%	6.15%	4.02%
2003	15	8.32%	12.11%	7.81%	4.29%
1998	20	6.95%	12.47%	8.11%	4.36%
1993	25	6.18%	12.11%	7.66%	4.45%
1988	30	5.78%	12.56%	7.62%	4.94%
1983	35	5.93%	12.45%	7.32%	5.13%
1981	37	6.22%	13.47%	7.69%	5.78%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.69, 19.36 and 21.03. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.97, 18.61 and 20.50. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.70. 13.23, and 14.76. The current P/E Ratio is 18.56 based on a stock price of $49.37 and 2019 EPS estimate of $2.66. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $49.37. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.99, 1.20 and 1.20. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.08 based on a stock price of $49.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.41. The current P/B Ratio is 1.42 based on Book Value of $14,910M, Book Value per Share of $34.80 and a stock price of $49.37. The current ratio is 0.5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.04%. This current dividend yield is 3.65% based on a stock price of $49.37 and dividends of $1.80. The current yield is 9.8% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.72. The current ratio is 2.29 based on a stock price of $49.37, Revenue estimate for 2019 of $9,246M, and Revenue per share of $21.58. The current ratio is 33% higher the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the high side but not at an excessive price. The P/S Ratio cannot be ignored and it is showing that the stock price is relatively expensive. The dividend yield is also saying that the stock price is above the median. The P/B Ratio testing is showing that the stock price is around the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (6), and Hold (6). The consensus would be a buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $51.54. This implies a total return of 8.04% with 4.40% from capital gains and 3.65% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Some said they liked AQN better. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool thinks this is a good stock to hold forever. Kay Ng on Motley Fool thinks that at 20 times earnings Fortis price is too high. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that ROCE for Fortis is normal for other utilities, it is too low for an investment. Michael Massai on Hermann Herald says that the company has a Piotroski F-Score of 7 which is good. The Blogger Dividend Earner likes this stock as a safe investment.

Fortis owns and operates utility transmission and distribution assets in Canada and the United States, serving more than 2.5 million electricity and gas customers. The company has smaller stakes in electricity generation and several Caribbean utilities. ITC operates electric transmission in eight U.S. states, with more than 16,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines in operation. Its web site is here Fortis Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was SNC-Lavalin Group Inc (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be WSP Global Inc. (TSX-WSP, OTC-WSPOF) ... learn more on Monday, April 29, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. It is obvious that the company see problems in the future, especially in the short term because of the cutting of the dividend. See my spreadsheet on SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

I own this stock of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF). I had this stock on a hit list as it was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth stock list and on the other dividend lists that I followed. I have made money because I bought this stock in 1998 and sold a chunk of it in 2008. Since 2008, it has only gone up and down and that is all.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they had an earnings loss for 2018. I have tracked this stock since 1992 and this is the first loss that they have had. They Liquidity Ratio is very low, but unfortunately it has always been low. If you add back in cash flow after dividends and the current portion of the long term debt, they barely make it pass 1.00 with a ratio of 1.05. This is a vulnerability. They had a bad year in 2018.

The current yield is 1.17%. This is a low yield but the company always had a low yield with 5, 10 and historical yields at 2.16%, 1.98% and 1.48%. The current yield is lower than the 5 and 10 year yields because they recently cut their dividends by 65%.

The dividend growth has really slowed in the last few years as you can see from the chart below. With the recent cut to dividends, the dividend growth to date is a negative 16% per year over the past 5 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2018 is not calculable because of the earnings losses. The 5 year coverage is 66%. The DPR for EPS for 2017 was 47% and it is expected to be 12% in 2019. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 89% with 5 year coverage at 45%. The DPR for CFPS is high in 2018 as I prefer this to be 40% or less.

Debt Ratios are not where I would like them to be and there is a vulnerability here, especially for the Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap ratio is fine at 0.78. I discussed the Liquidity Ratio above. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is low at 1.39, but the 5 year median is good at 1.59. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 3.54 and 2.54 with 10 year medians at 3.98 and 2.92.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	4.53%	1.43%	-0.80%	2.22%
2008	10	9.11%	3.29%	1.19%	2.10%
2003	15	14.88%	9.21%	6.85%	2.36%
1998	20	15.01%	17.37%	13.93%	3.44%
1993	25	16.86%	16.04%	13.13%	2.91%
1992	26	13.78%	12.55%	10.41%	2.14%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.69, 15.50 and 17.31. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 15.35, 19.11, ad 23.90. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.05, 19.05 and 24.93. The current P/E Ratio is 15.51 based on a stock price of $33.51 and 2019 EPS estimate of $2.16. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $31.79. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.70 and 2.04. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.05 based on a stock price of $33.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.91. The current P/B Ratio is 1.61 based on Book Value of $3,651M, Book Value per Share of $20.80 and a stock price of $33.51. The current ratio is 45% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.48%. The current yield is 1.19% based on a stock price of $33.51 and dividends of $0.40. The current yield is 1.5% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and near the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.91. The current P/S Ratio is 0.59 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $10,000M and a stock price of $33.51. The current ratio is 35% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio and the P/B Ratio suggests the stock is cheap. The dividend yield test suggests that it is reasonable. When companies change the dividends it generally tells you able the current future short term expectations of the company. With the cut in dividends, you know that the short term future is expected to have problems.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (6) and Underperform (1). This is a pretty broad spread. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $45.27. This implies a total return of 36.29% based on a stock price of $33.51.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Some are saying hold if you own, but do not buy. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool says this is a speculative buy. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks that the CEO is being paid too much. Victor Ferreira on Financial Post says that analysts Ross Healy thinks that the company has an uncertain future.

Montreal-based SNC-Lavalin is a professional service and project management company, as well as an infrastructure owner. From offices in over 50 countries, SNC provides engineering and construction services, financing and asset management, consulting, procurement, and operations and maintenance management, plus sustaining capital services. Its web site is here SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Barclays PLC ADR (LSE-BARC, NYSE-BCS) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Fortis Inc. (TSX-FTS, OTC-FRTSF) ... learn more on Friday, April 26, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Montreal Gazette Portfolio.... learn more on Thursday, April 25, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Barclays PLC ADR

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. You would think testing would show the stock price as cheap, but it is coming up reasonable, but below the median. There is a lot of risk to this stock at present. See my spreadsheet on Barclays PLC ADR.

I do not own this stock of Barclays PLC ADR (LSE-BARC, NYSE-BCS), but I used to. I bought this stock when Barrett took over in 2000. Barrett used to run Bank of Montreal in Canada. At that time, it was a good dividend paying stock and I thought it would give me some geographical diversifications.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that both revenue and earnings were up in 2018 and the stock price went up this year so far. They also have been increasing the dividend lately. Generally, when a company increases their dividends, especially a sizable amount, it is because the company sees good future growth.

This is a UK bank and dividends are paid and declared in British Pounds (£). This company paid two dividends a year with a larger one in the spring after the prior year results are know and one in the fall. This year, 2019, a dividend was paid in April and the next one due to be paid in September.

The April 2019 dividend is considered to the final dividend of 2018 and the September one to be an interim dividend. The Final dividend is generally greater than the interim one. For example, in 2017 the final dividend paid in April 2017 was for 2p (i.e. 2 pence) and the September 2017 interim dividend paid was for 1p. The year 2018 was untypical with a final dividend less than the interim one.

Note also that if you purchase this stock on the US market, it is purchases as an ADR (American Depositary Receipts). There is 1 ADRs for each 4 UK stock. Therefore when dividends are paid on the ADR, shareholders will get 4 times the rate. The currency exchange rate will also be taken into account.

For this bank, dividends have gone down as well as up and the dividend payment timing has changed. As you can see from the charts below dividend have been declining. The 2008 bear market and recession has been hard on banks. This bank started to rise their dividends again in 2018 and they were increased 100% in 2019 (so far). With the latest dividend increases, dividends are now back to where they were 5 years ago.

The Dividend Payout Ratios for 2018 for EPS 49% with 5 year coverage at 368% UK£. The anticipated DPR for EPS for 2019 is expected to be 30% with 5 year coverage at 85%. The DPR for 2018 for CFPS is 9% with 5 year coverage at 5%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Deposits/Assets Ratio for 2018 is 0.68. The Deposit/Total Debt Ratio for 2018 is 0.37. Both these ratios are good. The Liquidity Ratio is generally ignored for a bank. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.06 with 5 year median also at 1.06. This is a satisfactory ratio for a bank.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2018 in UK Pounds. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-7.09%	-8.81%	-11.10%	2.29%
2008	10	-18.31%	3.01%	-0.19%	3.20%
2003	15	-9.61%	-3.63%	-7.65%	4.01%
1998	20	-4.26%	2.28%	-3.79%	6.07%
1993	25	0.68%	8.73%	0.10%	8.64%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2018 in US$. This is a UK bank and the difference between the charts would reflect the difference between the currencies involved.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-11.79%	-13.98%	-16.09%	2.12%
2008	10	-19.40%	0.78%	-2.59%	3.37%
2003	15	-10.88%	-5.86%	-9.96%	4.10%
1998	20	-5.41%	1.11%	-5.32%	6.42%
1996	23	0.06%	7.62%	-1.75%	9.37%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are -17.7, -20.70 and -23.69. There have been recent earning losses. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.28, 6.29 and 9.07. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.40, 10.08 and 12.11. The current P/E Ratio is 7.92 based on a stock price of 169.4p (UK£1.694) and 2019 EPS estimate of 21.4p (UK£0.214). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of UK£3.86. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.54, 0.68 and 0.84. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.44 based on a stock price of £1.694. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.62. The current P/B Ratio is 0.55 based on Book Value of £52.924, Book Value per Share of £3.09 and a stock price of £1.694. The current P/B Ratio is 11% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.25%. The current dividend yield is 3.84% based on dividends of £0.065 and a stock price of £1.694. The current dividend yield is 18% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.45. The P/S Ratio is 1.34 based on 2019 Revenue estimate for 2019 of £21,722M, Revenue per Share of £1.27 and a stock price of £1.694. The current P/S Ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is the stock price is reasonable and below the median. You would think that the stock price would be coming up cheap on testing. Note that for P/E Ratio testing, the ratios are very low especially for 5 and 10 year periods because of earning losses and therefore negative ratios. A P/E Ratio of 7.92 is a very low ratio. It is low compared to the historical ratios.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (8), Buy (4), Hold (5), Underperform (1) and Sell (2). The recommendations are all over the place. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is £2.1322. This implies a total return of 29.70% with 25.87% from capital gains and 3.84% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. One analyst says buy and another one says don’t buy. Interesting. Harvey Jones on Motley Fool likes the dividend yield and the fact that it will increase. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes this bank’s level of leverage and liquidity. There is a Porter Five Forces analysis at Fern Fort University. There is another analysis of this stock at Swot and Pestle.

Barclays PLC operates in commercial and investment banking, insurance, financial and other related services. Barclays subsidiary, Barclays Bank PLC maintains 2500 branches in the United Kingdom and 1000 branches in over 75 other countries. Its web site is here Barclays PLC ADR.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be SNC-Lavalin Group Inc (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF) ... learn more on Wednesday April 24, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about My Politics.... learn more on Tuesday, April 23, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Natural Resources

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Resource. The stock price is probably reasonable. It looks like there is lots of insider selling, but it is what is happening is that they are not taking up their options in stocks. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Natural Resources .

I own this stock of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I first bought CNQ in September 2012 because the dividend yield was relatively high. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields were 0.73% and 0.75%. The current one was at 1.31% and I got it with a yield of 1.32%. In April 2013 I bought more shares of this stock because the yield is now at 1.54%.

The yield is now higher than when I bought this stock, but so is the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS. When I bought at 1.54%, the DPR for EPS was 23%. The yield is now for 2019 will be 3.48% and DPR for EPS is expected to be 67%. The 2019 yield is 3.48% because for 2019 the first dividend is $0.335 with three payments of $0.375 or $1.46. The current yield is 3.58% because the current dividend is $0.375 quarterly or $1.50.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock has not been doing well lately. The stock price over the past 5 years is down by 1.73% per year. The total return is 1.23% per year over the last 5 year period.

Current dividend yield is relatively high for this stock at a moderate 3.58%. The yield has been low (under 2%) most of the time in the past. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 2.68%, 1.82% and 0.93%. The dividend growth is good with growth per year north of 20% per year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. They are a lot higher than in the past. The 2018 DPR for EPS is 63% with 5 year coverage at 74%. The 2018 DPR for CFPS is good at 18% with 5 year coverage at 16%.

Debt Ratios are fine but there is a vulnerability in a low Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.49. The Liquidity Ratio is very low at 0.63. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. However, if you add in cash flow after dividends it is healthy at 2.42. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.81. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are normal at 2.24 and 1.24 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	22.79%	1.23%	-1.73%	2.96%
2008	10	21.41%	5.35%	3.06%	2.29%
2003	15	21.54%	12.17%	9.74%	2.44%
1998	20	23.41%	15.30%	12.97%	2.34%
1993	25		12.97%	11.33%	1.64%
1990	28		22.09%	19.59%	2.50%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.90, 11.32 and 13.74. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.17, 17.53 and 21.87. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.04, 16.56 and 20.00. The current P/E Ratio is 19.24 based on a current stock price of $41.94 and 2019 EPS estimate of $2.18. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $36.12. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.85, 1.12 and 1.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.16 based on a stock price of $41.94. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.51. The current P/B Ratio is 1.58 based on Book Value of $31,974, Book Value per Share of $26.60 and a stock price of $41.94. The current ratio is 4.3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.93%. The current dividend yield is 3.58% based on dividends of $1.50 and a stock price of $41.94. The current dividend is some 285% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.80. The current P/S Ratio is 2.30 based on a stock price of $41.94 and 2019 Revenue estimate of 20,707M, Revenue per Share of $18.26 and a stock price of $41.94. The current P/S Ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Most of the testing is showing the stock price reasonable, but above the median with the exception of the P/S Ratio test and the dividend yield test. The problem with the dividend yield test is the growth in DPR for EPS. There is no problem with the P/S Ratio test and this is a good one. The P/B ratio test is also a good one and it show the stock price a bit above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (19) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $47.40. This implies a total return of 16.60% with 13.02% from capital gains and 3.58% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They generally like this company. Ryan Vanzo of Motley Fool does like this stock. A write on Simply Wall Street says insider have recently sold but a prices much higher than current price. Steve Brodrick on Seeking Alpha has an interesting summary of this report. R.P. Stastny on Trusted Energy Intelligence says the company is recognized in the Energy Excellence Oil and Gas Operational category of the Methane emissions reduction program.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd is one of the largest oil and natural gas producers in western Canada, supplemented by operations in the North Sea and Offshore Africa. The company's portfolio includes light and medium oil, heavy oil, bitumen, synthetic oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its web site is here Canadian Natural Resources .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pembina Pipelines Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Barclays PLC ADR (LSE-BARC, NYSE-BCS) ... learn more on Monday, April 22, 2019 around 5 pm.

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