Toromont Industries Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Debt Ratios are good. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be still reasonable, but in the top of the reasonable range. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are mostly good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Toromont Industries Ltd .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Personally, I am still pleased with this company. I do not plan to buy more, but I will keep what I have. Since I live off my dividends, I do not have much in the way of cash to do much in the way of investing. The stock price still seems to be in a reasonable area, but it is at the top of the reasonable range.

I own this stock of Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list. This is one of the stocks I bought after selling Loblaws in 2008. I bought more in 2008 after selling Onex and AGF Management.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done well with this stock. I have had it for 16 years and have earned a total return of 13.74% with 12.02% from capital gains and 1.72% from dividends. Over the past 15 years, dividends have grown 11.2% per share from $.34 to $1.68 per share.

In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. This shows good growth generally except in the last 5 years for Cash Flow, although cash flow is expected go grow well over the next year by some 90%

Yr	Item	Tot. Gwth	Per Year	Gwth	Coverage
5	Revenue Growth	31.91%	5.69%	0.54%	<-12 mths
5	EPS Growth	110.10%	16.01%	-0.93%	<-12 mths
5	Net Income Growth	112.20%	16.24%	16.87%	<-12 mths
5	Cash Flow Growth	-29.71%	-6.81%
5	Dividend Growth	90.91%	13.81%	11.31%	<-12 mths
5	Stock Price Growth	113.97%	16.43%	14.98%	<-12 mths
10	Revenue Growth	190.08%	11.24%	3.87%	<-this year
10	EPS Growth	305.66%	15.03%	1.77%	<-this year
10	Net Income Growth	334.62%	15.83%	3.51%	<-this year
10	Cash Flow Growth	77.42%	5.90%	90.83%	<-this year
10	Dividend Growth	229.41%	12.66%	14.29%	<-this year
10	Stock Price Growth	335.65%	15.85%	14.98%	<-this year

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,012.70 you would have bought 38 shares at $26.65 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $392.92 in dividends. The stock would be worth $4,411.80. Your total return would have been $4,804.72. This would be a total return of 17.75% per year with 15.85% from capital gain and 1.89% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$26.65	$1,012.70	38	10	$392.92	$4,411.80	$4,804.72

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.47%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.54%, 1.58% and 1.69%. The current dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 13.8% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 11.6%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are mostly good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 26% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 69% with 5 year coverage at 45%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	26.05%	30.04%
AEPS	19.68%	21.51%
CFPS	19.64%	20.97%
FCF	69.32%	45.45%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.07 and currently at 0.06. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.65 and 2.64 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.42. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.70 and 0.70.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.07	0.06
Intang/GW	0.05	0.04
Liquidity	2.64	2.64
Liq. + CF	2.84	3.13
Debt Ratio	2.42	2.42
Leverage	1.70	1.70
D/E Ratio	0.70	0.70

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	13.81%	18.25%	16.43%	1.82%
2013	10	12.66%	17.75%	15.85%	1.89%
2008	15	11.17%	17.08%	15.10%	1.98%
2003	20	13.71%	14.71%	12.97%	1.73%
1998	25	12.97%	15.37%	13.57%	1.80%
1993	30	15.65%	18.80%	16.20%	2.59%
1990	33	14.66%	22.61%	18.55%	4.06%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.58, 20.09, 22.59. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.45, 18.76 and 22.04. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.36, 15.33 and 18.76. The current P/E Ratio is 19.88 based on a stock price of $130.50 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $6.56. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.03, 14.62 and 16.44. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.95, 15.74 and 17.70. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 15.35 based on a stock price of $130.50 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $8.50. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $78.97. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.58 and 1.80. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.65 based on a stock price of $130.50. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.47. The current P/B Ratio is 4.00 based on a stock price of $130.50, Book Value of $2684M and Book Value per Share of $32.61. The current ratio is 15% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 16.45. The current P/CF Ratio is 15.82 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $8.25, Cash Flow of $6789M and a stock price of $130.50. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.69%. The current dividend yield is 1.47% based on dividends of $1.87 and a stock price of $130.50. The current dividend yield is 13% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.58%. The current dividend yield is 1.47% based on dividends of $1.87 and a stock price of $130.50. The current dividend yield is 7% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.61. The current P/S Ratio is 2.24 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $4,801M, Revenue per Share of $58.34 and a stock price of $130.50. The current ratio is 39% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be still reasonable, but in the top of the reasonable range. The P/S Ratio testing does not support this and suggests that the stock price is expensive, but it is the only test to suggest this. Most of the rest of the testing says that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (3), and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $135.80 with a high of $145.00 and low of $125.00. The consensus price of $135.80 implies a total return of 5.53% with 4.06% from capital gains and 1.47% from dividends.

Not all analysts like this stock on Stock Chase . One analyst said last year that the company has been stock in consolidations for 3 years. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is on all the dividend lists that I follow. Andrew Button on Motley Fool reviews this stock. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is a current great buy. The company put out a Press Release about their 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance put out a positive review of this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. They list no warnings.

Toromont Industries Ltd is a Canadian industrial company. The company operates two business segments: Equipment Group and CIMCO. The larger segment by revenue is Equipment Group. The company operates majorly in Canada and derives a smaller portion of sales from the United States of America and other regions. Its web site is here Toromont Industries Ltd .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF) ... learn more on Monday, April 15, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable, and maybe cheap. Debt Ratios are fine, but I would like to see a higher Liquidity Ratio. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth restarting after a dividend cut. See my spreadsheet on Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It is a good sign that the company has been increasing the dividends lately after the 2020 dividend cut. I have this stock and I have no intentions of selling it, but neither am I buying more. I have this stock in my TFSA account which is my fooling around money. The price is probably cheap.

I own this stock of Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (TSX-AD.UN, OTC-ALARF). This is a stock that Dividends in Hand Blogger had bought in July 2016. It was also recommended by Acumen Capital report in a report by Brian Pow and Oliver Shao via Investor’s Digest. The Blogger Dividends in Hand sold his position in this company in April 29, 2020.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the price of this stock is below what I paid for it, although the distributions are good. I have had this stock for almost 7 years and have made 6.43% with a capital loss of 0.91% and dividends of 7.34%. Unfortunately, I bought this stock first in 2017 and 2017 when it was at a high. Note that this company is now paying a distribution (rather than a dividend). So, the distribution can be tax as capital gains, return of company, dividend, or a combination. I have it in Tax Free Account, so this does not affect me. Note that I bought this stock with my fooling around money.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,015.58 you would have bought 34 shares at $29.87 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $497.34 in dividends. The stock would be worth $553.86. Your total return would have been $1,051.20. This would be a total return of 0.45% per year with 5.88% from capital loss and 6.33% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$29.87	$1,015.58	34	10	$497.34	$553.86	$1,051.20

The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth restarting after a dividend cut. The current dividend yield is high (7% and higher) at 8.14%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also high at 7.77%, 7.57% and 7.47%. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 3.03%

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 46% with 5 year coverage fine at 65%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is a little high at 52% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is fine at 72% with 5 year coverage at 57%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	46.42%	64.87%
CFPS	52.31%	45.84%
FCF	71.99%	56.80%

Debt Ratios are fine, but I would like to see a higher Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.41 and currently at 0.40. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is too low at 0.39. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still far too low at 0.56 and currently at 0.63. If you add back in the current portion of the long term debt, the ratio become fine at 2.60 and currently at 2.93. If you do that, be sure to check that the current debt is being rolled over. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.87. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.54 and 0.54.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.41	0.40
Intang/GW	0.00	0.00
Liquidity	0.39	0.39
Liq. + CF	0.56	0.63
Liq. + CF+D	2.60	2.93
Debt Ratio	2.87	2.87
Leverage	1.54	1.54
D/E Ratio	0.54	0.54

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	-3.47%	7.26%	-0.84%	8.10%
2013	10	0.11%	0.45%	-5.88%	6.33%
2008	15	2.29%	15.52%	4.03%	11.48%
2006	16		12.44%	3.10%	9.35%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.28, 6.34 and 7.39. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.55, 15.51 and 19.54. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.55, 13.69 and 16.57. The current P/E Ratio is 8.92 based on a stock price of $16.71 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $1.87. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $29.84. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.96 and 1.16. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.56 based on a stock price of $16.71. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.12. The current ratio is 0.79 based on a stock price of $16.71, Book Value of $961M and Book Value per Share of $21.12. The current ratio is 30% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share (BVPS) estimate for 2024 of $22.00. This BVPS estimate implies a ratio of 0.76 and a Book Value of $1,001M with a stock price of $16.71. This ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.06. The current ratio is 8.27 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $2.02, Cash Flow of $91.9M and a stock price of $16.71. This ratio is 8.7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.47%. The current dividend yield is $8.14% based on a stock price of $16.71 and dividend of $1.36. The current ratio is 9% above the historical year median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a year median dividend yield of 7.47%. The current dividend yield is $8.14% based on a stock price of $16.71 and dividend of $1.36. The current ratio is 7.6% above the 10 year median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.48. The current P/S Ratio is 4.41 based on a stock price of $16.71, Revenue estimate for 2024 of $172M and Revenue per Share of $3.79. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable, and maybe cheap. Both the dividend yield tests are showing the stock price as reasonable and below the median. However, the dividends were cut in 2020 and are still 16% below the 2019 dividends. On the other hand, dividend cuts are a problem in themselves. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. All the other tests, except the P/CF ratio test is showing the stock price as cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (3) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $21.00 with a high of $24.50 and a low of $18.00. The consensus price of $21.00 implies a total return of 33.81% with 25.67% from capital gains and 8.14% from dividends.

There are no entries on Stock Chase for 2024, but all the entries for 2023 were buys. Stock chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Karen Thomas on Motley Fool thinks this company will continue to do well for shareholders. She seems to have missed that dividends were cut in 2020. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says buy this for a passive income stream. The company put out a press release on the Financial Post about their 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance review this stock. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings out on this stock of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 21.5% per year for the next 3 years; unstable dividend track record; and has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust is an open-ended trust. The Trust, through its subsidiaries, indirectly provides alternative financing to private companies (Partners) in exchange for distributions with the principal objective of generating stable and predictable cash flows for payment of distributions to unitholders of the Trust. Its web site is here Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Sun Life Financial Inc (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF) ... learn more on Friday, April 12, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about How to Save $100,000.... learn more on Thursday, April 11, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Sun Life Financial Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Life Insurance. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. See my spreadsheet on Sun Life Financial Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I believe that insurance companies will now do better with higher interest rates. I own this stock and I intent to hold on to it. It is on all the dividend lists I follow and I think with good reason. If you like this company and want to have it, now is a good time to buy. The stock price seems to be reasonable and below the median.

I own this stock of Sun Life Financial Inc (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF). I first bought this stock in 2000 when it was first demutualized. It was very cheap. I bought more in 2001, 2003 and 2006. This stock was on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth stock list and on the other dividend lists that I followed.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed my return on this stock is also low at 7.81% per year with 4.33% from capital gains and 3.48% from dividends. It is an insurance company and I knew when I held on to it that very low or 0% interest rates would be bad for insurance companies. However, you never think that unusual periods would last so long. Very low to 0% interest rates lasted a lot longer than I thought possible. However, I got paid in dividends to wait it out.

In the financial statements, they totally revamped how to present revenue. I tried to follow the same stream used in 2022. Even the analysts do not show revenue for 2023, only 2022 and then for 2024. I will wait and see why analysts come up with for the new way to determine and Revenue and then see what I can do with my spreadsheet. The Revenue on the income statement was not the only problem. Other figures from other statements did not match up with last year’s report. The problem is that under IFRS, rules keep changing.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,013.04 you would have bought 27 shares at $37.52 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $555.53 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,855.44. Your total return would have been $2,410.97. This would be a total return of 10.28% per year with 6.34% from capital gain and 4.04% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$37.52	$1,013.04	27	10	$555.53	$1,855.44	$2,410.97

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.31%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 4.31%, 376% and 3.75%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% per year ranges) at 9.5% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 2023 and it was for 4%. This was the second dividend increase in 2023. Dividends between 2022 and 2023 increase at 8.7%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 57% with 5 year coverage at 48%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 47% with 5 year coverage at 42%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 42%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 2 (FCF) is good at 16% with 5 year coverage at 17%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	57.03%	48.21%
AEPS	47.17%	42.05%
CFPS	31.25%	42.56%
FCF 1	30.72%	42.56%
FCF 2	16.40%	16.53%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.85. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is fine but high at 3.71 and currently at 3.52. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.81. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is fine for a financial at 1.08.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R+A	0.85	0.85
Lg Term R	3.71	3.52
Intang/GW	0.35	0.33
Liquidity	1.81	1.81
Liq. + CF	2.20	2.13
Debt Ratio	1.08	1.08

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	9.51%	12.27%	8.70%	3.57%
2013	10	7.62%	10.28%	6.24%	4.04%
2008	15	5.01%	10.28%	6.06%	4.22%
2003	20	7.70%	7.28%	3.85%	3.44%
1999	24	7.93%	12.06%	7.29%	4.77%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.12, 12.26 and 13.96. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.41, 12.15 and 13.69. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.51, 13.08 and 14.33. These are fairly consistent and that is good for testing. The current ratio is 11.16 based on a stock price of $72.44 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $6.49. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.63, 10.27 and 11.84. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.41, 12.15 and 13.69. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 10.65 based on a stock price of $72.44 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $6.80. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $74.36. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.84 and 0.96. The current ratio is 0.97 based on a stock price $72.44. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. But it is just inside the expensive area.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.50. The current P/B Ratio is 2.00 based on a Book Value of $21,125M, Book Value per Share of 36.14 and a stock price of $72.44. The current ratio is 33% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $39.70. This analyst calculates the Book Value differently from me and with this calculation, the 10 year median ratio is 1.26. The current ratio is 1.82 based on a Book Value of $23,209M and stock price of $72.44. This ratio is 45% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.65. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.36 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $8.66, Cash Flow of $5,063M and a stock price of $72.44. The current ratio is 9.4% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.65%. The current dividend yield is 4.31% based on a stock price of $72.44 and Dividends of $3.12. The current dividend yield is 18% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.76%. The current dividend yield is 4.31% based on a stock price of $72.44 and Dividends of $3.12. The current dividend yield is 14% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.03. The current ratio is 0.93 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $45,372M, Revenue per Share of $77.61 and a stock price of $72.44. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. I have concerns about this test. I had a hard time calculating the current Revenue because the company is changing their accounting. The estimate is some 47% above the 2023 Revenue, but it is close to that of 2020. The estimate site does not say what the Revenue is for 2023.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Both the dividend yield tests show the stock price as reasonable. The P/S Ratio test confirms this, but I do wonder how good the P/S Ratio test is. Seven of my tests are showing the stock price as reasonable and two of my tests are showing the stock price as expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (4), Hold (5) and Underperform (1). This is rather a broad range of recommendations. The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $75.46, with a high of $83.00 and low of $66.00. The consensus stock price of $75.46 implies a total return of $8.48% with 4.17% from capital gains and 4.31% from dividends.

There are 5 recommendations on Stock Chase for 2024 and 4 entries are Buy and one is a Hold. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on the dividend lists that I follow. Kay Ng on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a good long term investment. Nicholas Dobroruka on Motley Fool thinks this is a wise stock to buy to balance out riskier holdings. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2023.

Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and calls it a value stock. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street has no warnings on this stock.

Sun Life provides life insurance, retirement, and asset management products to individuals and corporate customers in Canada, the United States, and Asia. Its web site is here Sun Life Financial Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Goodfellow Inc (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 10, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Digital Serfs .... learn more on Tuesday, April 9, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Leadership by Henry Kissinger learn more...

Goodfellow Inc

I today sold my shares in Trigon Metals Inc (TSXV-TM, OTC-PNTZF). They are mucking about with share consolidation and a plan of arrangement. The stock price has been crashing lately. I do not have much in this stock as I inherited Trigon from another stock that I had bought in 2000. It is not worthwhile having this on my books.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but could be cheap. Debt Ratios are very good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth good a present, but has varied in the past. See my spreadsheet on Goodfellow Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this company and I have no intentions of selling. It is a small cap and not followed by analysts and therefore on the risky side. The stock price is cheap according to the dividend yield tests and a lot of other tests. Although the P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable but above the median.

I own this stock of Goodfellow Inc (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF). Goodfellow looks like a good small cap stock. It was being pushed by Investor Reporter. This site no longer exits.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have not made much with this stock either. I have a total return of 5.38% with 2.68% from capital gains and 2.70% from dividends. I have had this stock for 13 years and made several purchases. If you look at total return for years 10, 15 and 20, they were all above 8%. My problem is that I bought at market tops. It happens, people make mistakes. This stock is much more volatile that I had expected.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,007.88 you would have bought 111 shares at $9.08 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $482.85 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,559.55. Your total return would have been $2,042.40. This would be a total return of 8.22% per year with 4.46% from capital gain and 3.75% from dividends. They are still up 122% from the

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$9.08	$1,007.88	111	10	$482.85	$1,559.55	$2,042.40

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth good a present, but has varied in the past. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.57%. The 5 year median dividend yield is also good at 6.57%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.16%, and 3.74%. The dividend increase over the past 5 year is 49.5% per year. But dividends were suspended in 2017 and restarted in 2020. Dividends are up 122% from the 2014 high. If you look at dividend increases over 5 year periods from 1997, a 28 year period, dividends increases were 10.9% per year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 13% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 19% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 4% with 5 year coverage at 7%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	12.85%	12.85%
AFFO	19.88%	14.09%
CFPS	18.61%	13.09%
FCF	4.38%	6.73%

Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.00 as they have no long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.4.23. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 4.38. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.30 and 0.30.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.00	0.00
Intang/GW	0.02	0.02
Liquidity	4.23	4.23
Liq. + CF	5.06	5.06
Debt Ratio	4.38	4.38
Leverage	1.30	1.30
D/E Ratio	0.30	0.30

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	20.09%	30.76%	21.53%	9.23%
2013	10	16.23%	8.22%	4.46%	3.75%
2008	15	1.69%	9.16%	4.37%	4.79%
2003	20	7.81%	8.97%	3.36%	5.61%
1998	25	8.14%	11.01%	4.90%	6.11%
1993	30	10.94%	12.90%	5.74%	7.16%
1991	32	11.60%	12.88%	6.01%	6.87%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 2.37, 3.76 and 5.22. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 4.52, 5.84 and 7.19. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.67, 7.99 and 9.16. The current ratio is 8.85 based on a stock price of $15.22 and EPS for the last 12 months of $1.72. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Although, I must admit all these ratios are quite low.

I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 1.41, 1.81 and 2.51. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.51, 3.94 and 4.36. The current ratio is 3.03 based on a stock price of $15.22 and AFFO for the last 12 months of $5.03. The current ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. his stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $36.97. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.45, 0.51 and 0.56. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.41 based on a stock price of $15.22. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.53. The current ratio is 0.43 based on a Book Value of $195.00, Book Value per Share of $35.32 and a stock price of 15.22. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is very close to cheap

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.06. The current ratio is 1.96 based on a stock price of $15.22, Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $42.97 and Cash Flow per Share of $7.78. The current ratio is 36% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.74%. The current dividend yield is 6.57% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $15.22. The current dividend yield is 76% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.16%. The current dividend yield is 6.57% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $15.22. The current dividend yield is 58% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.14. The current ratio is 0.16 based on Revenue for the last 12 months of $513M, Revenue per Share of $92.88 and a stock price of $15.22. The current ratio is 19% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but could be cheap. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is relatively cheap. this is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test which says the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median. Most of the testing is showing the stock price as relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. I can only find one rating on WSJ. There is no target price given.

This stock is not listed on Stock Chase, nor Motley Fool. It is interesting that it is covered by Simply Wall Street and they have a number of entries for this stock. They are about the only ones following this stock. It is a small cap and has few followers or people writing about it. The company put out a press release on their 2023 year end results on Newswire.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about this company’s dividends. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this company. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings on this company of does not have a meaningful market cap (CA$129M); profit margins (2.9%) are lower than last year (5.2%); and unstable dividend track record.

Goodfellow Inc is engaged in various business activities related to the remanufacturing and distribution of lumber and wood products. The company operates in Canada and The United States; the majority of its revenue is generated from Canada. Its web site is here Goodfellow Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Sun Life Financial Inc (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF) ... learn more on Monday, April 8, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Liberalism and Its Discontents by Francis Fukuyama learn more...

Melcor Developments Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Real Estate. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. Debt Ratios are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low, but with a recent decrease. See my spreadsheet on Melcor Developments Inc .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this company. Some of the insiders are buying. The time to buy, of course, is when the stock is cheap. However, since I live off my dividends, I generally do not have any money for new investments. Currently, the stock is relatively cheap.

I own this stock of Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF). This was one of the stocks on Mike Higgs' list of good dividend growth stocks. So, I looked into it and bought it. I bought this stock first in 2008 and then some more in 2009. It is a little followed real estate company from Western Canada.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I have not done very well, especially lately, with this stock. My total return to date is 4.86% with 0.39% from capital gains and 4.47% from dividends. I have had this stock for 16 years. However, let’s face it, this company is from Alberta and Alberta has always had a boom/bust economy. I also paid far too much for my initial purchase of this stock. I did not count for the volatility of this stock.

I noticed that a number of officers have increased their shares in this company over the past year. Shareholders have not done well over the past 5 and 10 years. Share price blunged in 2020 and has been recovering since then.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,002.50 you would have bought 50 shares at $20.05 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $260.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $563.00. Your total return would have been $823.00. This would be a total return of 2.26% loss per year with 5.61% from capital loss and 3.35% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$20.05	$1,002.50	50	10	$260.00	$563.00	$823.00

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low, but with a recent decrease. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.83%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 3.75%, 3.69% and 2.94%. If I look the running 5 year average change in dividends over the past 10 years, the result is a median increase of 4.2%. To the end of 2023, the dividend increase was 4.24% per year. However, the dividends are decreased by 31% in 2024. The dividends, into 2024, are down by 2.5% per year over the past 5 years. As noted above, the last dividend change was in 2024 and dividends were decreased by 31%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 40% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The DPR for 2023 for Funds from Operations (FFO) is good at 23% with 5 year coverage at 25%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 23% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 41% with 5 year coverage at 37%.

The EPS is expected to drop in 2024 from $2.03 to $1.79. Therefore, the DPR for Earnings per Share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 24% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is expected to be at 16% with 5 year coverage at 18%

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	40.21%	31.41%
FFO	23.44%	25.59%
CFPS	23.28%	18.19%
FCF	41.41%	36.88%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Coverage Assets Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.40. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is high at 1.94 and currently at 1.90. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is a good at 3.56. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.19 and.2.36 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.73 and 0.73.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R+A	0.40	0.40
Lg Term R	1.94	1.90
Intang/GW	0.00	0.00
Liquidity	3.56	3.56
Liq. + CF	4.15	4.27
Debt Ratio	2.19	2.36
Leverage	1.73	1.73
D/E Ratio	0.73	0.73

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	4.24%	2.45%	-1.74%	4.19%
2013	10	2.50%	-2.26%	-5.61%	3.35%
2008	15	2.85%	13.91%	6.18%	7.73%
2003	20	9.20%	10.86%	4.58%	6.29%
1998	25	10.74%	15.98%	7.61%	8.38%
1993	30	12.25%	17.35%	7.90%	9.45%
1990	33	13.43%	16.53%	7.96%	8.58%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.44, 7.03 and 8.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.40. 7.51 and 8.93. The corresponding historical ratios are 5.86, 7.21 and 8.42. The current ratio is 6.42 based on a stock price of $11.49 and EPS estimate for 2024 of 1.79. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 4.04, 6.05 and 8.48. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.28, 9.54 and 9.50. The current P/FFO Ratio is 4.21 based on a stock price of $11.49 and FFO for the last 12 months of $2.73. The current ratio is below the low ratio of 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $39.86. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.35, 0.43 and 0.49. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.29 based on a stock price of $11.49. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.42. The current P/B Ratio 0.29 based on a

stock price of $11.49, Book Value per Share of $1,210M and Book Value per Share of $39.45. The current ratio is 30% below the ratio of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.42. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.22 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $48.8M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.59 and a stock price of $11.49. The current ratio is 42% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.94%. The current dividend yield is 3.83% based on dividends of $0.44 and a stock price of $11.94. The current dividend yield is 30% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.69%. The current dividend yield is 3.83% based on dividends of $0.44 and a stock price of $11.94. The current dividend yield is 4% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.89. The current P/S Ratio is 1.21 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $292M, Revenue per Share of $9.52 and a stock price of $11.49. The current ratio is 36% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The historical dividend yield test says this. The 10 year median dividend yield test says the stock price reasonable, but the dividends have just been cut 33%. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock price is relatively cheap. Most of the other tests says the same thing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only a Hold (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months stock price consensus is $14.00 with high and low also $14.00 as there is only one analyst following this stock.

The last entry is in 2016 on Stock Chase. The last Buy recommendation was in 2007. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 star out of 5. It is not on any of the dividend lists I currently follow. Iain Butler on Motley Fool recommends this stock as a buy in June 2023. Nikhil Kumar on Motley Fool recommends this stock in May 2021. This is a small cap from Alberta and it is not well followed. The company put out a press release via Globe and Mail about their 2023 year end results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance reviews this stock in March 2024. Simply Wall Street has 4 warnings on this stock of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow; unstable dividend track record; large one-off items impacting financial results; and profit margins (20%) are lower than last year (37%). Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5.

Melcor Developments Ltd is a real estate development company. It develops and manages mixed-use residential communities, business and industrial parks, office buildings, retail commercial centers, and golf courses. Its web site is here Melcor Developments Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Goodfellow Inc (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF) ... learn more on Friday, April 5, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy April 2024 .... learn more on Thursday, April 4, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures. April 4, 2024.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Toronto Mayors by Mark Maloney learn more...

BCE Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Debt Ratios show debt is too high and Liquidity Ratio too low. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high with the only good one for Cash Flow per Share. The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on BCE Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The thing is, what you pay for a stock does affect your long term return. The time to buy a stock is when it is cheap. However, that is also the scariest time. I think I have enough of this stock, so I am not buying any more at the present time. However, I have no intentions of selling any that I own. I still consider this a core stock for my portfolio. The stock price is cheap at the current time.

I own this stock of BCE Inc (TSX-BCE, NYSE-BCE). This is one of first stocks I bought, which was in 1982. At that time, it was called an orphan and widow stock. It is not easy to figure out what I have earned on this stock because it has spun off shares for Nortel and Bell Aliant. The annoying thing with their spin offs is you always end up with an odd number of shares. In 2016 I sold Manitoba Telecom. To keep the same in Telecom category, I bought some more BCE with the proceeds.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for 36 years and I have made a total return per year of 12.34% with 5.78% from capital gains and 6.56% from dividends. Over the years there has been a lot of changed in my stock what with them throwing off Nortel and then Bell Aliant. It makes looking at the stock complex, but this is my return according to Quicken. I think that I did so well because I sold half my Nortel at a high price.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,012.00 you would have bought 22 shares at $46.00 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $678.81 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,147.74. Your total return would have been $1,826.55. This would be a total return of 7.46% per year with 1.27% from capital gain and 6.20% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$46.00	$1,012.00	22	10	$678.81	$1,147.74	$1,826.55

The current dividend yield is high with dividend growth low. The current dividend is high (7% and higher) at 8.71%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.67% and 5.32%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.22%. The dividend increases are low (below 8% per year) at 5.1% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was 2023 and it was for 3.10%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high with the only good one for Cash Flow per Share. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is far too high at 168% with 5 year coverage at 121%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is far too high at 119% with 5 year coverage at 106%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 1 (FCF) is far too high 111% with 5 year coverage at 105%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow 2 (FCF) is far too high 111% with 5 year coverage at 91%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	167.65%	120.57%
AEPS	119.08%	106.88%
CFPS	33.47%	32.44%
FCF 1	110.88%	105.05%
FCF 2	110.88%	90.92%

Debt Ratios show debt is too high and Liquidity Ratio too low. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is fine at 0.65 and currently at 0.73. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is far too low at 0.65. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still far too low at 1.02 and currently at 0.95. If you add back in the current portion of the debt, they are fine at 1.75 and currently at 1.62 but check debt is being rolled over. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is fine at 1.68 and 1.68 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are too high at 3.50 and 2.50. I prefer these to be less than 3.00 and 2.00

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.65	0.73
Intang/GW	0.58	0.65
Liquidity	0.65	0.65
Liq. + CF	1.02	0.95
Liq. + CF + D	1.75	1.62
Debt Ratio	1.40	1.40
Leverage	3.50	3.50
D/E Ratio	2.50	2.50

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 41 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below. I think why my return is so good is because I sold half my Nortel at a very good price.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	5.09%	5.81%	-0.66%	6.47%
2013	10	5.14%	7.46%	1.27%	6.20%
2008	15	11.67%	12.36%	4.99%	7.37%
2003	20	5.96%	8.46%	3.00%	5.46%
1998	25	9.25%	3.72%	0.09%	3.63%
1993	30	7.73%	7.57%	3.18%	4.40%
1988	35	6.84%	7.39%	3.36%	4.02%
1983	40	6.40%	7.36%	3.53%	3.83%
1982	41		8.92%	4.45%	4.48%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.41, 21.01 and 23.62. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.39, 18.95 and 19.97. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.85, 17.65 and 18.97. The current P/E Ratio is 17.05 based on an EPS estimate for 2024 of 2.69 and a stock price of $45.80. This ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.81, 19.00 and 20.99. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.51, 17.31 and 18.54. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 14.97 based on AEPS estimate for 2024 of $3.06 and a stock price of $45.80. The current ratio is below the low 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $35.35. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.44, 1.63 and 1.76. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.30 based on a stock price of $45.80. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.22. The current P/B Ratio is 2.52 based on a Book Value of $16,562M, Book Value per Share of $18.15 and a stock price of $45.80. The current ratio is 22% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $19.20. The analyst calculates the Book Value different from me. The 10 year median P/B Ratio is 2.64. The Book Value per Share estimate of $19.20 implies a Book Value of $17,516M, a P/B Ratio is 2.39 with a stock price of $45.80. This ratio is 10% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.96. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.81 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $7.88, Cash Flow of $7,189M and a stock price of $45.80. The current ratio is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.22%. The current dividend yield is 8.71% based on a stock price of $45.80 and dividends of $3.96. The current yield is 106% above the historical median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.32%. The current dividend yield is 8.71% based on a stock price of $45.80 and dividends of $3.96. The current yield is 64% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.26. The current P/S Ratio is 1.67 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $24,953, Revenue per Share of $27.35 and a stock price of $45.80. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests are saying this. The cheap rating is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Other tests are saying the stock price is either cheap or reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4), Hold (13) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $54.79 with a high of $60.00 and low of $48.00. The consensus stock price implies a total return of $28.34% with 19.63% from capital gains and 8.71% from dividends.

There are lots of entries on Stock Chase for this stock and lot of them are Do Not Buy or Sell, but there are some buys. Stock Chase gives this company 5 stars out of 5. It has been taken off the MoneySense list, but is on the other two dividend lists that I follow. Puja Tayal on Motley Fool says buy for the dividend yield. Demetris Afxentiou Motley Fool thinks this is a long term buy and has a insanely high dividend yield. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street on Yahoo Finance talk about who owns this company. Simply Wall Street has 2 warnings out on this company of dividend of 8.67% is not well covered by earnings or cash flows; and has a high level of debt. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5.

BCE provides wireless, broadband, television, and landline phone services in Canada. It is one of the big three national wireless carriers, with over 10 million customers constituting about 30% of the market. Its web site is here BCE Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Hydro One Ltd (TSX-H, OTC-HRNNF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 3, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks April 2024 .... learn more on Tuesday, April 2, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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