Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but could be cheap. Debt Ratios are very good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth good a present, but has varied in the past. See my spreadsheet on Goodfellow Inc.
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still like this company and I have no intentions of selling. It is a small cap and not followed by analysts and therefore on the risky side. The stock price is cheap according to the dividend yield tests and a lot of other tests. Although the P/S Ratio test says it is reasonable but above the median.
I own this stock of Goodfellow Inc (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF). Goodfellow looks like a good small cap stock. It was being pushed by Investor Reporter. This site no longer exits.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have not made much with this stock either. I have a total return of 5.38% with 2.68% from capital gains and 2.70% from dividends. I have had this stock for 13 years and made several purchases. If you look at total return for years 10, 15 and 20, they were all above 8%. My problem is that I bought at market tops. It happens, people make mistakes. This stock is much more volatile that I had expected.
If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,007.88 you would have bought 111 shares at $9.08 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $482.85 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,559.55. Your total return would have been $2,042.40. This would be a total return of 8.22% per year with 4.46% from capital gain and 3.75% from dividends. They are still up 122% from the
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $9.08 | $1,007.88 | 111 | 10 | $482.85 | $1,559.55 | $2,042.40 |
The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth good a present, but has varied in the past. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.57%. The 5 year median dividend yield is also good at 6.57%. The 10 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.16%, and 3.74%. The dividend increase over the past 5 year is 49.5% per year. But dividends were suspended in 2017 and restarted in 2020. Dividends are up 122% from the 2014 high. If you look at dividend increases over 5 year periods from 1997, a 28 year period, dividends increases were 10.9% per year.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 13% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 19% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 4% with 5 year coverage at 7%.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 12.85% | 12.85% |
| AFFO | 19.88% | 14.09% |
| CFPS | 18.61% | 13.09% |
| FCF | 4.38% | 6.73% |
Debt Ratios are very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.00 as they have no long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.4.23. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 4.38. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.30 and 0.30.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Intang/GW | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Liquidity | 4.23 | 4.23 |
| Liq. + CF | 5.06 | 5.06 |
| Debt Ratio | 4.38 | 4.38 |
| Leverage | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.30 | 0.30 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 20.09% | 30.76% | 21.53% | 9.23% |
| 2013 | 10 | 16.23% | 8.22% | 4.46% | 3.75% |
| 2008 | 15 | 1.69% | 9.16% | 4.37% | 4.79% |
| 2003 | 20 | 7.81% | 8.97% | 3.36% | 5.61% |
| 1998 | 25 | 8.14% | 11.01% | 4.90% | 6.11% |
| 1993 | 30 | 10.94% | 12.90% | 5.74% | 7.16% |
| 1991 | 32 | 11.60% | 12.88% | 6.01% | 6.87% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 2.37, 3.76 and 5.22. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 4.52, 5.84 and 7.19. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.67, 7.99 and 9.16. The current ratio is 8.85 based on a stock price of $15.22 and EPS for the last 12 months of $1.72. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Although, I must admit all these ratios are quite low.
I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 1.41, 1.81 and 2.51. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 3.51, 3.94 and 4.36. The current ratio is 3.03 based on a stock price of $15.22 and AFFO for the last 12 months of $5.03. The current ratio is below the low ratio for the 10 year median ratios. his stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $36.97. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.45, 0.51 and 0.56. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.41 based on a stock price of $15.22. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.53. The current ratio is 0.43 based on a Book Value of $195.00, Book Value per Share of $35.32 and a stock price of 15.22. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is very close to cheap
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.06. The current ratio is 1.96 based on a stock price of $15.22, Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $42.97 and Cash Flow per Share of $7.78. The current ratio is 36% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.74%. The current dividend yield is 6.57% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $15.22. The current dividend yield is 76% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.16%. The current dividend yield is 6.57% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $15.22. The current dividend yield is 58% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.14. The current ratio is 0.16 based on Revenue for the last 12 months of $513M, Revenue per Share of $92.88 and a stock price of $15.22. The current ratio is 19% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but could be cheap. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is relatively cheap. this is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test which says the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median. Most of the testing is showing the stock price as relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. I can only find one rating on WSJ. There is no target price given.
This stock is not listed on Stock Chase, nor Motley Fool. It is interesting that it is covered by Simply Wall Street and they have a number of entries for this stock. They are about the only ones following this stock. It is a small cap and has few followers or people writing about it. The company put out a press release on their 2023 year end results on Newswire.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about this company’s dividends. Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this company. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings on this company of does not have a meaningful market cap (CA$129M); profit margins (2.9%) are lower than last year (5.2%); and unstable dividend track record.
Goodfellow Inc is engaged in various business activities related to the remanufacturing and distribution of lumber and wood products. The company operates in Canada and The United States; the majority of its revenue is generated from Canada. Its web site is here Goodfellow Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Melcor Developments Inc (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Sun Life Financial Inc (TSX-SLF, NYSE-SLF) ... learn more on Monday, April 8, 2024 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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