Waste Connections Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The share price seems to be expensive at this time. Outstanding shares have been increased a lot over the past 5 years. Revenue per Share and Cash Flow per Share are declining. Dividend Payout Ratios and Debt Ratios are fine. See my spreadsheet on Waste Connections Inc.

I do not own this stock of Waste Connections Inc (TSX-WCN, NYSE-WCN), but I used to. I first bought this stock in 2007 because TD Securities had a very favorable report on this stock and had it on their action buy list. At that time, it was BFI Canada Income Fund. I sold in 2016 when it because the target of a reverse takeover by an American company.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that although the Revenue is strongly going up, Revenue per share is going down. The Revenue growth for the past 5 and 10 years is 23% and 14 % per year. However, the Revenue per Share growth over the past 5 and 10 years has declined by 3.36% and 1.67% per year. This is because the company is issuing lots of shares. Outstanding shares are up by 27% per year over the past 5 years and 16% per year over the past 10 years. There is the same problem with Cash Flow. The EPS is low in 2020 because of write offs.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (less than 2%) at just 0.68%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0.80%, 1.00% and 1.20%. The dividend growth is good (8% to 14% ranges) at 19% per year over the past 5 years. The last increase was in 2020 and it was for 10.8%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 97% with 5 year coverage at 37%. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is expected to be around 30%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 14% with 5 year coverage at 12%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 27% with 5 year coverage at 21%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.18. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is low at 1.37 but if you add in cash flow after dividends it is good at 2.54. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 1.96. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 2.04 and 1.04.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2020 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	17.07%	24.80%	23.66%	1.14%
2010	10	11.25%	15.47%	14.57%	0.90%
2005	15	-0.81%	9.57%	8.41%	1.16%
2001	19	3.22%	15.12%	12.53%	2.59%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2020 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	19.05%	26.93%	25.76%	1.17%
2010	10	8.56%	12.62%	11.79%	0.83%
2005	15	-1.39%	9.04%	7.81%	1.23%
2002	18	4.47%	14.93%	12.41%	2.52%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 32.70, 40.90 and 46.22. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 20.70, 23.97 and 27.24. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.21, 19.81 and 25.76. The current P/E Ratio is 44.70 based on a stock price of $147.16 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $3.29 ($2.71 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $48.74. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.58 and 1.81. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.02 based on a stock price of $147.16. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.24. The current P/B Ratio is 4.58 based on a Book Value of $6,938M, Book Value per Share of $26.40 and a stock price of $120.99. The current ratio is 105% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.21. The current P/CF Ratio is 21.01 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $5.76, Cash Flow of $1,514M and a stock price of $120.99. The current ratio is 106% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.19%. The current dividend yield is 0.68% based on dividends of $1.00 ($0.82 US$) and a stock price of $147.16. The current yield is 43% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.96%. The current dividend yield is 0.68% based on dividends of $1.00 ($0.82 US$) and a stock price of $147.16. The current yield is 29% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.39. The current P/S Ratio is 5.33 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $5,966M, Revenue per Share of $22.70 and a stock price of $120.99. The current ratio is 123% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively expensive. The dividend yield test is showing the stock price as expensive and this is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. In fact, all my tests are showing the stock price as expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It would seem that the current stock price is on the expensive side. Investors have done well with this company. I worry about the dilution of shares because the company has issued so many over the past 5 and 10 years. As a Canadian I do not like to have too many companies paying dividends in US$, because of fluctuating dividends. I do not regret selling my shares.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (11), Buy (6), Hold (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is 157.52 ($129.67 US$). This implies a total return of 7.72%, with 0.68% from dividends and 7.04% from capital gains.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this stock and it is the top pick for some. Rajiv Nanjapla on Motley Fool likes the EBITDA margin of this company. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 stars out of 5 and lists 4 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this stock’s fair value is $92.66 US$. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks that this company can handle it debt.

Waste Connections is the third- largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste and recycling services in the North America. The firm serves residential, commercial, industrial, and energy end markets. Waste Connections entered the Canadian market with its 2016 merger with Progressive Waste. Its web site is here Waste Connections Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Lassonde Industries Inc (TSX-LAS.A, OTC-LSDAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Intertape Polymer Group Inc (TSX-ITP, OTC-ITPOF) ... learn more on Monday, June 21, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Lassonde Industries Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is reasonable. It may even be cheap. Both the Dividend Payout Ratios and the Debt Ratios are good. Dividends have been a bit inconsistent. See my spreadsheet on Lassonde Industries Inc.

I do not own this stock of Lassonde Industries Inc (TSX-LAS.A, OTC-LSDAF). Although this stock is not on the Investment Reporter list, MPL communications does write about this stock. It has been covered several times in their Advice Hotline emails in 2010. Reports have been favorable and they suggest buying it for dividends and long term capital gains.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the stock hit a high in 2018 that it has yet to recover to. This company is still 37% off its 2018 high. It high a low in February 2020 and has been recovering since then. However, long term investors have done fine with this stock.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current yield is low (less than 2%) at 1.92%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.29%, 1.39% and 1.76%. The yield on this stock has always been low and just occasionally venturing into the 2% range. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.3% per year. However, they have raised and lower their dividend rates. There have been 18 increases and 3 decreased over the past 30 years. See chart below.

One of the things I look at, using past data, is dividend yield on original investments after 5 to 25 years. I am also looking at how much of the stock cost is covered by dividends after 5 to 25 years. In the chart below I show the numbers for this stock. For example, if you bought this stock 10 years ago at the median price, you would have a current yield on your original investment of 4.87% and 32% of your original cost would have now been paid by dividends. This is how you build a dividend portfolio to live off of.

Years	Yield	Cost Cov
5	1.75%	7.33%
10	4.87%	32.12%
15	8.77%	70.24%
20	22.69%	197.55%
25	21.61%	197.60%

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 18% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 9% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow 9% with 5 year coverage at 11%

Debt Ratios are all good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is good and low at 0.17. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 1.52. The Debt Ratio is good and high at 2.36. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.74 and 0.74.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	9.32%	2.82%	1.33%	1.49%
2010	10	-1.20%	13.48%	11.50%	1.97%
2005	15	11.46%	12.13%	10.35%	1.78%
2000	20	11.67%	15.88%	13.60%	2.27%
1995	25	9.55%	12.22%	10.54%	1.68%
1990	30	10.01%	14.76%	12.44%	2.32%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.66. 17.87 and 20.08. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.26, 17.59 and 19.93. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.43, 13.15 and 15.53. The current P/E Ratio is 14.41 based on a stock price of $183.00 and EPS estimate for EPS of $12.70. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $176.64. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.07, 1.24 and 1.40. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.04 based on a stock price of $183.00. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.95. The current P/B Ratio is 1.68 based on a Book Value of $757M, Book Value per Share of $109.19 and a stock price of $183.00. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.89. The current ratio is 6.02 based Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $210.7M, Cash Flow per Share of $30.38 and a stock price of $183.00. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.76%. The current dividend yield is 1.92% based on a stock price of $183.00 and dividends of $3.52. The current dividend yield is 9% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.39%. The current dividend yield is 1.92% based on a stock price of $183.00 and dividends of $3.52. The current dividend yield is 38% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.71. The current P/S Ratio is 0.64 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $1,968M, Revenue per Share of $283.84 and a stock price of $183.00. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Of the dividend yield test, the historical one says stock price is reasonable and the 10 year says cheap. The P/S Ratio test confirms the reasonableness of the stock price. A number of tests suggest a cheap stock price.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think the stock price is reasonable, if not cheap. I also think that this will be a good long term company to buy for capital gains and dividends.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2) recommendations. The 12 month stock price consensus is $211.00. This implies a total return of 17.22% with 15.30 from capital gains and 1.92% from dividends.

This stock is not well covered on Stock Chase. Nikhil Kumar on Motley Fool thinks this is a recession-proof stock to buy. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and lists one risk. A writer on Simply Wall Street says they are pleased with this company’s performance. They like the fact the they are only paying out 22% of EPS in Dividends and therefore reinvesting 78% back into the company. The blogger Dividend Earner points out that this stock is no longer on the Dividend Aristocrat list. However, I think you need to look past their dividend inconsistencies and see that it has delivered some good and growing dividends for its shareholders. I like companies that grow their dividends over time and I do not dismiss ones that are not on the Dividend Aristocrat list.

Lassonde Industries Inc is engaged in the development, manufacturing, and marketing of ready-to-drink fruit and vegetable juices and drinks. It also acts as a producer of store brand shelf-stable fruit juices and drinks in the United States and a major producer of cranberry sauces. Lassonde has its presence in Canada and the United States. It earns the majority of the revenue in the United States. Its web site is here Lassonde Industries Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Goeasy Ltd (TSX-GSY, OTC-EHMEF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Waste Connections Inc (TSX-WCN, NYSE-WCN) ... learn more on Friday, June 18, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Income.... learn more on Thursday, June 17, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Goeasy Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price seems to be on the expensive side. Earnings are growing a lot faster than revenue. Dividend Payout Ratios are good. Dividend yield is low at 1.75%. Investors have done well with this company. See my spreadsheet on Goeasy Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Goeasy Ltd (TSX-GSY, OTC-EHMEF). In April of 2016 Investment Reporter said to seek stocks with growing dividends from The Investment Reporter Key stock buys. This is one stock that was named. However, I would still rather invest in companies that are not in the business of charging very high interest rates.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock is growing very quickly in regards to EPS, Dividends and Stock Price. The EPS is up by 39% and 30% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The dividend growth for the past 5 years is 34% per year, and the stock price is up by 39% and 26% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue growth is not as high with Revenue per Share group up by 14% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. So, EPS is growing much faster than Revenue and this cannot continue indefinitely. Although, analysts expect higher rates of growth in revenue for 2021 and 2022. These rates are 27% in 2021 and 23% in 2022. Still not as fast as EPS.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (less than 2%) at 1.81%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.17%, 2.21% and 2.21%. The dividends have increased by 34% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2021 and it was for 47%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 19% with 5 year coverage at 23%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 7% with 5 year coverage at 6%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 36%. The 5 year coverage cannot be calculated because FCF was negative until 2020 when it turned positive.

Debt Ratios are fine, but there is room for improvement. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.48. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.93 and is good. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 1.42 and this is a bit low. The 5 year median Debt Ratio is also low at 1.42. The current Debt Ratio is better at 1.52. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 3.39 and 2.39. These are high and I prefer them to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	33.60%	40.94%	38.52%	2.41%
2010	10	16.51%	28.68%	26.43%	2.24%
2005	15	15.96%	14.13%	12.83%	1.29%
2000	20		23.95%	21.20%	2.75%
1995	25		7.08%	6.58%	0.51%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.74, 11.97 and 14.51. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.41. 11.42 and 14.11. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.41, 12.67 and 16.28. The current P/E Ratio is 10.98 based on a stock price of $150.46 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $13.70. The current ratio is between the 10 year low and median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $106.63. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.64, 0.84 and 1.13. The current ratio is 1.41 based on a stock price of $150.46. The current ratio is above 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.61. The current P/B Ratio is 4.08 based on a stock price of $150.46, Book Value of $550.3M and a Book Value per Share of $36.88. The current ratio is 153% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 1.90. The current P/CF Ratio is 20.67 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $109M, Cash Flow per Share of $7.28 and a stock price of $150.46. The current ratio is 990% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The 10 year median ratio is very low at 1.90 and it is low because the company has had some years of negative cash flow. However, a P/CF Ratio of 20.67 is quite high.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.21%. The current dividend yield is 1.75% based on a stock price of $150.46 and dividends of $2.64. The current dividend is 21% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield also of 2.21%. The current dividend yield is 1.75% based on a stock price of $150.46 and dividends of $2.64. The current dividend is 21% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.93. The current P/S Ratio is 2.71 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $828M, Revenue per Share of $55.50 and a stock price of $150.46. The current ratio is 192% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. The dividend yield tests are showing this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The only test that does not show this is a P/E Ratio test and this one can be unreliable. For this company, the EPS is growing much faster than the Revenue. Also, analysts expect EPS to grow 56% in 2021 and I sort of wonder at this.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a company that I would not be keen to invest in. It is basically doing Pay-Day Loans and I understand why these companies should be legal, but I rather invest in other places. Currently the stock price seems on the expensive side.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $175.67. This implies a total return of 18.51% with 16.76% from capital gains and 1.75% from dividends

The last entry on Stock Chase says to wait and not jump in based on historical performance. Jed Lloren on Motley Fool is impress with this company. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list 4 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street is impressed with the earnings growth of this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes this stock as a dividend growth stock because of the conservative payout ratio, increasing EPS and increasing dividends.

Goeasy Ltd provides financial services to own furniture, electronics, computers, and appliances. It offers merchandise leasing of household furnishings, appliances, and home electronic products to consumers under weekly or monthly leasing agreements. The company also offers unsecured installment loans to consumers. Its reportable business segments include easyhome and easyfinancial, of which it derives maximum revenue from easyfinancial. Its web site is here Goeasy Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NTSE-AQN) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Lassonde Industries Inc (TSX-LAS.A, OTC-LSDAF) ... learn more on Wednesday, June 16, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Best Utility Buys.... learn more on Tuesday, June 15, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Stock price is on the high side to expensive. Dividend Payout Ratios are too high, but analysts expect they will come down in the near future. Debt Ratios need improving, especially the Liquidity Ratio. See my spreadsheet on Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.

I do not own this stock of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NTSE-AQN). This is a dividend paying utility stocks. I got it off a list of dividends paying utility stocks. Also, I own Emera Inc. and this company owns shares in Algonquin Power.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the Liquidity Ratios are quite low. You have to add in cash flow after dividends and current portion of the long term debt in 2020 to just to get to 1.07. The current one is a bit better at 1.37, but I prefer this to be at 1.50 with the Liquidity Ratio and Cash Flow after Dividends. For this stock it does not reach one in 2019 or 2020 where it is 0.98 and 0.91.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.27%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 4.58%, 4.56% and 4.56% (since becoming a corporation). Dividends were cut by 74% when it became a corporation. The dividend increases are currently moderate (8% to 14% ranges) with the dividend increases at 8.2% per year over the past 5 years. The last increase was in 2021 for 10%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are high but are expected to decline in the next few years. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 43% with 5 year coverage at 70%. Analysts expect the DPR in 2021 to be 112% before declining to 84% and then 78% in 2022 and 2023. The DPR or CFPS for 2020 is 58% with 5 year coverage at 47%. These are a bit high as I like the DPR for CFPS to be 40% or lower. The DPR for Free Cash Flow can not be calculated because the FCF is negative for 2020. The DPR for FCF is expected to be around 88% in 2022 then then declining to 68% in 2022.

Debt Ratios need improving, especially the Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2020 is 0.45. However, the debt has increased and the current ratio is higher at 0.60. The Debt Ratio at 1.75 is good. I like this to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.63 and 1.51.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 0.73. If you add cash flow after dividends it is still only at 0.91. When the Liquidity Ratio is under 1.00, it means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you add back in the current portion of the debt it is just 1.07. I like this to be at least 1.50 or higher. The Asset/Current Liabilities ratio is good at 13.84. The Debt/Cash Flow Ratio is high 8.71 years, but Utilities tend to have a lot of debt.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2020 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	8.17%	18.52%	13.94%	4.58%
2010	10	14.19%	20.29%	15.36%	4.93%
2005	15	-1.31%	8.82%	4.75%	4.07%
2000	20	-1.25%	9.01%	3.72%	5.30%
1997	23	-0.46%	8.67%	3.07%	5.60%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2020 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	10.01%	20.58%	15.87%	4.71%
2010	10	11.41%	17.12%	12.56%	4.55%
2005	15	-1.89%	8.39%	4.14%	4.26%
2003	17	-0.44%	9.42%	4.24%	5.18%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.61. 25.80 and 27.99. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 23.61, 26.55 and 29.39. The corresponding historical ratios are 23.61. 27.16 and 30.32. The current P/E Ratio is 27.54 based on a stock price of $19.30 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $0.70 ($0.58 US$). The current ratio is between the median and high 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $12.75. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.24, 1.24 and 1.58. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.51 based on a stock price of $19.30. The current ratio is between the median and high 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.62. The current P/B Ratio is 1.87 based on a stock price of $15.96, Book Value of $5,092M and Book Value per Share of $8.53. The current ratio is 16% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.11. The current P/CF Ratio is 15.50 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $1.03, Cash Flow of $510.7M and a stock price of $15.96. The current ratio is 53% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.56%, adjusted to when the company became a corporation. The current dividend yield is 4.27% based on a stock price of $19.30 and dividends of $0.82 ($0.68 US$). The current yield is 6.3% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.56%. The current dividend yield is 4.27% based on a stock price of $19.30 and dividends of $0.82 ($0.68 US$). The current yield is 6.3% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.81. the current P/S Ratio is 4.42 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $2,158M, Revenue per Share of $3.61 and a stock price of $15.96. The current ratio is 57% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. The dividend yield tests are saying the prices are reasonable but above the median (or on the high side). The P/S Test is saying the stock price is expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price is probably on the expensive side. It is a utility and analysts expect to see improvements in the Dividend Payout Ratios which are not good at present. It also has a lot of debt. This is probably why the analyst’s recommendations are all over the place. This utility has some problems. Some analysts think their problems are manageable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (5), Hold (8) and Underperform (1). The consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $20.70 ($17.13 US$). This implies a total return of 11.53% with 7.25% from capital gains and 4.27% from dividends.

This company has a few recent Top Picks on Stock Chase. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks this is a stock to buy and hold forever. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street list 4 risks. It gives it 4 stars out of 5 stars. A writer on Simply Wall Street is uncomfortable with the company’s debt level. A writer on Simply Wall Street is impressed with the company’s earnings growth.

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp is a North American generation, transmission, and distribution utility. Its web site is here Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Maxar Technologies Ltd (TSX-MAXR, NYSE-MAXR) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Goeasy Ltd (TSX-GSY, OTC-EHMEF) ... learn more on Monday, June 14, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Maxar Technologies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. The stock price is probably cheap, but this is risky because of the problems the company is having. Dividends are just 0.1%, so hardly a dividend payer. They also need to improve their debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Maxar Technologies Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Maxar Technologies Ltd (TSX-MAXR, NYSE-MAXR). I read about this stock in MPL Communication's Advice Hotline dated October 10, 2012. CanTech likes it also. It is a Tech stock with dividends. So, I investigated this stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that even though it is doing better than last year, the debt ratios are still not good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2020 is not that bad at 1.02, but debt was increase in the first quarter and the ratios is now 1.40. The Liquidity Ratio is very low at 0.71 and it is still low if you add in cash flow after dividends at 1.06. The Debt Ratio is also low at 1.26. I prefer these last two ratios be at 1.50 or better. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are better than last year, but are still too high at 4.79 and 3.79, respectively. I like these ratios to be under 3.00 or under 2.00, respectively.

The dividend yields are currently very low with dividend growth non-existent. The dividend was cut by over 96% in 2019. The current yield is low (less than 2%) at just 0.11%, which is very low. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low all at 1.85%. Analysts do not expect any change in the dividends in the near term.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine currently. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 0.8%. The 5 year coverage cannot be calculated because of the big EPS loss of 2018. The last time I could calculate a 5 year coverage was 2017 and it was 48%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is .9% with 5 year coverage at 12.3%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow cannot be calculated for 2020 because of a negative FCF. The DPR for FCF for 2021 is expected to be around 10%. The next time I can calculate a 5 year coverage for FCF is 2022 and it is expected to be 228%. The DPR for FCF has tended to be very high.

Debt Ratios are not good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is too high at 1.02 and the current one is even higher at 1.19 because an increase in debt. When this ratio is higher than 1.00 it means that the stock’s market value is lower than the outstanding long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 0.71. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 0.99. It you include current portion of long term debt it is just 1.00. You want this to be at 1.50 or better. The current Liquidity Ratio with Cash Flow after dividends is better, but still low at 1.12.

The Debt Ratio is too low at 1.26 for 2020 and a current one of 1.39. This should also be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are too high at 4.79 and 3.79. The current ones are still too high at 3.55 and 2.55. I like to see these ratios below 3.00 and below 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2020 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	-49.03%	-8.74%	-9.98%	1.24%
2010	10	-33.30%	1.72%	-0.27%	2.00%
2005	15		3.28%	1.83%	1.45%
2000	20		5.26%	4.05%	1.21%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2020 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	-48.16%	-7.48%	-8.74%	1.26%
2010	10	-35.32%	-1.05%	-2.84%	1.79%
2005	15		2.70%	1.23%	1.48%
2002	18		7.26%	5.69%	1.57%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 2.27, 5.46 and 8.66. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.95, 19.77 and 23.59. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.96, 21.10 and 24.68. The current P/E Ratio is negative and therefore unusable. This is CDN$ terms.

The P/E Ratio for 2022 is 30.39 based on a stock price of $43.33 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $1.43 ($1.18 US$). The P/E Ratio for 2023 is 12.63 based on a stock price of $43.33 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $3.43 ($2.84 US$). The 2022 P/E Ratio is higher than the 10 year high ratio and is showing a stock price that is expensive. The last one is showing a P/E Ratio lower than the 10 year low ratio and shows a stock price that is cheap. However, the further you go out in estimates, the more likely that they are very wrong. This testing is CDN$ terms.

I estimate a Graham Price of $25.96. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.33, 1.75 and 2.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.67 based on a stock price of $43.33. The current ratio is just above the median 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This is CDN$ terms.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.23 based on Book Value of $1,246M, Book Value per Share of $17.38 and a stock price of $35.78. The current ratio is 36% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is US$ terms. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.56. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.22 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $3.51, Cash Flow of $252M and a stock price of $35.78. The current ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is US$ terms. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.85%. The current dividend yield is 0.11% based on a stock price of $43.33 and dividends of $0.05 ($0.04 US$). The current yield is 94% below the historical dividend median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is CDN$ terms. Dividends have only been paid for 8 years and the 5 and 8 year median dividend yields are the same as the historical one.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.53. The current P/S Ratio is 1.44 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $1,780M, Revenue per Share of $24.83 and a stock price of $35.78. The current ratio is 85% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is US$ terms. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The P/S Ratio says this. A number of other tests says the same thing. Dividends have just been cut some 96%, so the stock could not be cheap with a dividend yield test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably at a reasonable price. However, this company does have problems, so this is a high risk turn-around situation.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (2), and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $58.47 ($48.39 US$). This implies a total return of 35.06% with 0.11% from dividends and 34.95% from capital gains.

There is a Business Wire article about the company inflating its intangibles. The most recent entry on Stock Chase says to hold for the longer term. Rich Smith on Motley Fool says it is unlikely that the company will turn a profit this year after Q1 results. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 stars out of 5 and list 3 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street is uncomfortable with this company’s debt level.

Maxar Technologies Inc is an integrated space and geospatial intelligence company with a full range of space technology solutions for commercial and government customers including satellites, Earth imagery, geospatial data, and analytics. Its web site is here Maxar Technologies Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (TSX-AQN, NTSE-AQN) ... learn more on Friday, June 11, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about My Investing.... learn more on Thursday, June 10, 2021 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Beleaguered by Lynne Golding learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Ensign Energy Services

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Cheap Industrial Stock. The stock price is probably cheap. Because this company services oil companies, it is risky. Analysts still seem interested in this stock and that is good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is very high because the stock price has crashed. The other debt ratios are fine. See my spreadsheet on Ensign Energy Services.

I own this stock of Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF). I had this stock from 2012 to 2014 and lost money on it. I bought this stock a second time in June 2020 because it was so cheap.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that analysts are still interested in this stock. This is a good thing. It means that they expect that the company will recover

When this stock had a dividend, it ranged from low (below 2%) to high (6% and over). When it started a dividend in 1995 to 2013, the dividend was in the 1% to 2% ranges and I would suspect that when it recovers and restarts a dividend, it will be in these ranges. The historical median dividend yield is low at 1.90%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are higher with the 5 year median high at 7.27% and the 10 year median dividend yield at good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.68%.

For most of their history, this company paid out some 30% or less of their DPR on dividends. They just got into trouble when they had earning losses from 2015. The DPR for CFPS were mostly under 40%. If and when they start to pay out dividends, I am sure that they will have good payout ratios.

Debt Ratios are mostly fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is very high currently because of the drop in the stock price. The ratio for 2020 is 9.40. The current one is lower at 6.48. When this is above 1.00, it means the company is worth less than the debt according to the stock market. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 1.61. The Debt Ratio is also good at 1.81. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.24 and 1.24.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	-24.21%	-22.27%	-34.20%	11.93%
2010	10	-10.34%	-14.59%	-24.45%	9.86%
2005	15	-2.30%	-11.39%	-19.48%	8.09%
2000	20	1.69%	-1.62%	-10.95%	9.32%
1995	25	8.22%	13.20%	-0.98%	14.18%
1991	29		25.36%	6.03%	19.33%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and unusable. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 4.33, 3.78 and 3.21. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.53, 12.27 and 16.43. The current P/E Ratio is negative as is the next two P/E Ratios for years 2022 and 2023. This testing cannot be done.

I calculate or guess a Graham Price of $1.35. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.54, 0.78 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.23 based on a stock price of $1.66. The current ratio is above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.70. The current P/B Ratio is 0.21 based on a book Value of $1,308M, Book Value per Share of $8.08 and a stock price of $1.66. The current ratio is 71% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, a problem is that the Book Value per Share has been declining over the past 5 years at 9% per year.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.15. The current P/CF Ratio is 2.48 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $0.67, Cash Flow of $108.4M, and a stock price of $1.66. The current ratio is 52% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I can do not dividend tests because this company has suspended its dividend.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.05. The current P/S Ratio is 0.28 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $943M, Revenue per Share of $5.83 and a stock price of $1.66. The current ratio is 73% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Most of the testing is showing this, and especially important, the P/S Ratio testing is showing this.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think the company is fine. I own it, but I understand the risks. It services the oil and gas industries so it is high risk. I expect it to come back and be fine, but there are never any guarantees in life.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Hold (8). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $1.76. This implies a total return of 6.02%, all capital gains.

The last two entries on Stock Chase say this stock is their top pick for May 2021. Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool says the CEO of this company blames slow rollout of vaccines and government programs that have made it difficult to hire people and that is why they missed earnings for the past quarter. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and one risk. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns this company. .

Ensign Energy Services Inc is a Canada-based oil services company. It offers services in drilling and well servicing, oil sands coring, directional drilling, underbalanced and managed pressure drilling, equipment rentals, transportation, wireline services, and production testing services. Its web site is here Ensign Energy Services.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Hardwoods Distribution Inc (TSX-HDI, OTC-HDIUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Maxar Technologies Ltd (TSX-MAXR, NYSE-MAXR) ... learn more on Wednesday, June 09, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Sturdy Canadian Dividend Stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, June 8, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Hardwoods Distribution Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Materials. The stock price is probably expensive. Analyst are paying more attention to this stock than in the past. The Dividend Payout Ratios and the Debt Ratios are good. The recent dividend increase of 17.7% shows that management has confidence in the future. See my spreadsheet on Hardwoods Distribution Inc.

I own this stock of Hardwoods Distribution Inc (TSX-HDI, OTC-HDIUF). In April 2017, I asked for suggestions on what stocks I should now follow because of a number that I had followed had been bought out. This was one of the suggestions. I bought 100 shares in 2020 to try it out. When the price I feel is more reasonable, I will buy more. At this time, I look forward to the next bear market to buy more.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock had a lot more estimates last year. (Estimates for the Revenue, EPS, etc. in the coming years.) This means that more analysts are paying attention to this stock. This is a good thing that this stock is being noticed. They just raised their dividends by 17.6%. This shows that management has confidence in the future.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.25%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.90%, 1.88% and 1.94%. The dividend increase for the last 5 years is in the moderate range (8% to 14% ranges) at 11.2% per year. The last dividend increase was good (15% or over) at 17.7%. This increase was made in 2021. The company used to be an income trust. These companies could pay high dividends. The company cut the dividend when it became a corporation and this why the 15 and 16 year dividend growths are negative.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 was 19% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 7.5% with 5 year coverage at 9.3%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow was 11.6% with 5 year coverage at 15%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.18 and is low and very good. The Liquidity is fine at 1.87. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.09. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.92 and 0.92 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	11.20%	8.12%	6.74%	1.37%
2010	10	15.98%	29.83%	26.89%	2.94%
2005	15	-7.42%	12.53%	9.17%	3.36%
2004	16	-4.66%	7.44%	4.86%	2.58%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.54, 10.53 and 15.44. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.86, 11.24 and 14.68. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.54, 10.53 and 14.21. The current P/E Ratio is 11.72 based on a stock price of $32.10 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $2.74. This current ratio between the low and median 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $26.99. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.57, 0.74 and 1.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.19 based on a stock price of $32.10. This ratio is above the high 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.27. The current P/B Ratio is 2.72 based on a stock price of $32.10, Book Value of $251.6M, and a Book Value per Share of $11.82. The current ratio is 114% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 16.73. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.50 based on Cash Flow of the last 12 months of $65M, Cash Flow per Share of $3.06, and a stock price of $32.10. The current ratio is 37% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.94%. The current dividend yield is 1.25% based on dividends of $.40 and a stock price of $32.10. The current yield is 36% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.88%. The current dividend yield is 1.25% based on dividends of $.40 and a stock price of $32.10. The current yield is 34% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.31. The current P/S Ratio is 0.52 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $1,321M, Revenue per Share of $62.05 and a stock price of $32.10. The current ratio is 66% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. Both the dividend yield test says this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Some of the other tests say the same thing. I know the P/E Ratio test say it is reasonable, but I have not found this to be a reliable test. The P/CF Ratio test says the stock price is cheap, but this test is using last 12 month data I have found to be unreliable also.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that the stock price is currently expensive. I do like this company and when it at a more reasonable price, I will buy more. It is considered to be a small cap. I think that this will be a long term hold for me. I have found that paying too much for a long term hold stock really affects your total return.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $44.40. This implies a total return of 39.56% with 38.32% from capital gains and 1.25% from dividends.

This stock is not well followed on Stock Chase. Old reviews like this company. Robin Brown on Motley Fool thinks it is a good time to buy this cyclical stock. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks now is a good time to buy this stock. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list one risk. I do not think that there is insider selling so much as insiders are not taking up share rights and performance shares. I follow CEO, CFO and Chairman and they all slightly increased their shares over the past year. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the share price growing faster than the EPS.

Hardwoods Distribution Inc. HDI is a world-class distributor of architectural building products operating under multiple brands across North America. Its web site is here Hardwoods Distribution Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was IA Financial Corp (TSX-IAG, OTC-IDLLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI, OTC-ESVIF) ... learn more on Monday June 7, 2021 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Fate of the West by Bill Emmott learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

IA Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Insurance. Stock price is probably reasonable. The stock has yet to cover from March 2020 bear. Both the Dividend Payout Ratios and Debt Ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on IA Financial Corp.

I do not own this stock of IA Financial Corp (TSX-IAG, OTC-IDLLF). This was a stock shown as a dividend growth stock on the Canadian All Star List. See site here.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock has not recovered from the March 2020 bear. It is still some 2% below the December 2019 stock price.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth is moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.78%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 3.06%, 2.80% and 2.60%. The dividend increases have been moderate (8% to 14% ranges) over the past 5 years are 10.8% per year. The last dividend increase was lower at 7.8% in 2020. There has been no increase this year yet.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 34% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 11% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 12% with 5 year coverage at 34%.

Debt Ratios are good. Because this is a financial, I am looking for asset coverage the long term debt. The Debt/Asset coverage for 2020 is 0.82. The Liquidity Ratio is not important for financials, but I get one of 2.08. The Debt Ratio is 1.08 and this is fine for a financial.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

>

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	10.83%	7.84%	4.57%	3.27%
2010	10	7.07%	7.02%	4.13%	2.88%
2005	15	9.46%	7.19%	4.37%	2.82%
2000	20	9.78%	7.71%	5.12%	2.59%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.01, 9.19 and 11.18. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.13, 10.37 and 12.51. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.21, 11.49 and 13.25. The current P/E Ratio is 10.01 based on a stock price of $69.87 and EPS estimate for 2021 of 6.89. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

If you look at P/E Ratios compared to Total Returns for the 5, 10, 15, and 20 year periods, I find the following. For example, total return over the past 10 years is 7.02% per year, the starting P/E Ratio (the one from 15 years ago) was 12.31. From the point of view of this chart, a P/E Ratio of 10.01 would be fine.

Year	Tot Return	Start P/E
5	7.84%	12.36
10	7.02%	12.31
15	7.19%	17.62
20	7.71%	16.73

I get a Graham Price of $98.66. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.56, 071 and 0.83. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.71 based on a stock price of $69.87. The current ratio is the same as the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.10. The current P/B Ratio is 1.13 based on a Book Value of $6,636M, Book Value per Share of $61.98 and a stock price of $69.87. The current ratio is 3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I am not doing a Price/Cash Flow test because of negative cash flows.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.60%. The current dividend yield is 2.78% based on dividend of $1.94 and a stock price of $69.87. The current dividend yield is 6.8% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.80%. The current dividend yield is 2.78% based on dividend of $1.94 and a stock price of $69.87. The current dividend yield is 1% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.53. The current P/S Ratio is 0.48 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $15,632M, Revenue per Share of $146.01 and a stock price of $69.87. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests put the stock price above and below the median. The P/S Ratio tests says the stock price is below the median. The rest of the testing is showing the stock price is reasonable and above and below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably reasonable. Considering it is a life insurance company, it has not done badly with most total return in the 7% ranges. All the life insurance companies have done poorly with low interest rates. When interest rates return to normal, they will do better.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Buy (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $80.88. This implies a total return of 18.53% with 15.76% from capital gains and 2.78% from dividends.

Surprisingly this stock is not well covered at Stock Chase. Last entries in 2020, where analysts liked the stock. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool thinks this stock is due for a pull back. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and one risk. For this sort of financials, the long term debt must be covered by assets and this is the important one for their long term debt. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes that the company is growing its earnings.

IA Financial Corp is a life and health insurance company. It offers life and health insurance products, savings and retirement plans, mutual funds, securities, auto and home insurance, mortgages, and others. It operates in Canada and US. Its web site is here IA Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc (TSX-RBA, NYSE-RBA) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will Hardwoods Distribution Inc (TSX-HDI, OTC-HDIUF) ... learn more on Friday, June 04, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy June 2021.... learn more on Thursday, June 3, 2021 around 5 pm.

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