Artis REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying REIT. Stock price is relatively cheap. Lately the total return on this stock is low even with the high dividend yield. The DPRs are much improved with the dividend cut. See my spreadsheet on Artis REIT.

I do not own this stock of Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF). Early in 2013, this company was mentioned as a good REIT to own. A number of people I correspond with mentioned this REIT. However, my first view of it is not positive. It is also not a dividend growth stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the dividend yield is still good. After having a flat dividend for 8 years, they have in the last two year, cut their dividends. Insiders are buying and they have been for the last 3 years. Shareholders have made money because of the dividends. There has been little in the way of capital gains. See chart below.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.99%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are high (7% or higher) at 8.21%, 8.02% and 7.82%. They started to pay dividends in 2005 and there were some increases at first, but then there was 8 years of flat dividends and in 2018 they decreased the dividends by 50%. Analysts do not expect any change in the current dividend over the short term.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are much improved with dividend decrease. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 75% with 5 year coverage at 210%. This DPR has been too high in the past. The DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) has been better than the DPR for EPS. The DPR for FFO for 2019 is 38% with 5 year average at 38%. The 10 year median for DPR for FFO is 76%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 35% with 5 year coverage at 64%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 38% with 5 year coverage at 65%. Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 2.61 with 5 year ratio at 1.54.

Debt Ratios are fine, but would like a better Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.76 and is fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is very low at 0.45. If you considered cash flow after dividends and you only consider dividends paid in cash and the current portion of the long term debt, the ratio is still low at 1.39. I prefer it to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.06. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.94 and 0.94.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-12.94%	3.87%	-3.45%	7.32%
2009	10	-6.70%	9.45%	0.45%	9.00%
2004	15	-2.28%	17.77%	4.50%	13.27%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.06, 13.19 and 16.33. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.27, 10.27 and 11.11. The corresponding historical ratios are 3.85, 4.30 and 4.75. The current P/E Ratio is negative, so I cannot do this test.

I can do a Price/Funds from Operations Ratio test. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/FFO Ratios are 7.25. 9.20 and 9.92. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.73, 9.80 and 11.51. The current P/FFO ratio is 5.90. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $15.93. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.55, 0.65 and 0.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.49 based on a stock price of $7.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.86. The current P/B Ratio is 0.49 based on a Book Value of $2,149M, Book Value per Share of $15.66 and a stock price of $7.73. The current P/B Ratio is 43% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.57. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.65 based on last 12 month Cash Flow of 188.4M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.37 and a stock price of $7.73. The current ratio is 41% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.82%. The current dividend yield is 6.99% based on a stock price of $7.73 and dividends of $0.54. The current yield is 10.7% lower than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.02%. The current dividend yield is 6.99% based on a stock price of $7.73 and dividends of $0.54. The current yield is 12.8% lower than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.90. The current P/S Ratio is 2.26 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $470, Revenue per Share of $3.54 and a stock price of $7.73. The current ratio is 42% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio points to this as does the P/GP Ratio test, the P/B Ratio test, and the P/CF Ratio test. The dividend yield does do not this but this is because the dividends were recently cut by 50%.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I believe that the stock price is reasonable. I would not buy this REIT because it has never been a dividend growth company. You expect dividend growth for REIT basically at the rate of inflation. But they have not grown the dividend since 2010 and now the dividend has been cut by 50%.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $10.46. This implies a total return of 42.30% with 35.32% from capital gains and 6.99% from dividends.

Analysts in the last two entries on Stock Chase say do not buy. Matt Smith on Motley Fool says to buy because it is trading below its NAV of $15.52 per unit. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the share are down 22% over the past 5 years, but Total Shareholder Return is 13%. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider trading. An article on Real Estate News Exchange says this company may be bought out.

Artis Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated closed-end REIT based in Canada. Artis REIT's portfolio comprises properties located in Central and Western Canada and select markets throughout the United States, including regions such as Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Saskatchewan, Arizona, Minnesota, Colorado, New York, and Wisconsin. Its web site is here Artis REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Dorel Industries Inc (TSX-DII.B, OTC-DIIBF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 22, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividends Income and Volatility.... learn more on Tuesday, July 21, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Atlantic Power Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Utility Sector Stock. The stock price seems reasonable. This stock has suspended its dividend and who know when this will change. It cannot make a profit but Free Cash Flow and Cash Flow are rising. Debt ratio could be improved. See my spreadsheet on Atlantic Power Corp.

I do not own this stock of Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT). I am following this stock because I like utility companies and in 2010, I have read two columns that recommended this particular utility company (TSX-ATP), I decided to investigate it. This company has converted from an income trust to a corporation.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed since it was issued in 2004, this stock has only had a profit in one year and that was 2018. Revenue hit a high in 2014 and has been falling ever since. AFFO has been calculated since 2011, but it has been falling ever since 2011.

On a positive note, the Free Cash Flow has been positive and rising at 21.64% per year over the past 5 year and 5.56% per year over the past 9 years. Cash flow has been rising by 11.31% per year over the past 5 year and 5.56% per year over the past 10 years.

Dividends have gone up and down, but mostly down and were finally cut in 2015. It is hard to say whether or not this stock will become a dividend payer again or not.

Debt Ratios could be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 1.86 and therefore much too high. When this ratio is over 1.00, it means that long term debt is higher than the stock’s Market Cap. The current ratio is lower at 1.47, but this is still too high. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.24. If you add in cash flow it is 2.42. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is 1.17 and this is too low. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. Because the book value is negative, the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios cannot be calculated.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2019 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	-0.07%	-0.84%	0.77%
2009	10	0.00%	-6.89%	-12.49%	5.60%
2004	15	0.00%	2.31%	-8.12%	10.42%
2003	16	0.00%	3.12%	-7.20%	10.32%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2019 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	-2.25%	-2.89%	0.65%
2009	10	0.00%	-9.63%	-15.08%	5.46%
2004	15	0.00%	-1.76%	-10.77%	9.02%
2003	16	0.00%	-1.44%	-10.12%	8.69%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also all negative. The corresponding historical ratios are also all negative. Therefore, P/E Ratio test cannot be done.

I have AFFO figures, so we can do a P/AFFO Ratio test. The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO are 5.37, 6.18 and 6.98. The 9 year corresponding ratios are 7.66, 11.48 and 13.40. The current P/AFFO ratio is 5.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This test is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $2.26. But this is just a guess as this stock has a negative book value. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.92, 1.05 and 1.21. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This test is in CDN$.

I cannot do a Price/Book Ratio test as the Book Value is negative. I cannot do any dividend yield tests because dividends have been suspended.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.22. The current P/CF is 2.18 based on a stock price of $2.73, CFPS of $1.25 ($0.92 US$) and Cash Flow of $136.2M. The current P/CF Ratio is 48% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This test is in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.80. The current P/S Ratio is 0.78 based on a stock price of $2.73, 2020 Revenue estimate of $380.6M ($280M US$) and Revenue per Share of $3.50. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This test is in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively reasonable. There are three tests I cannot do and the Graham Price test is suspect because it cannot be calculated accurately when the book value is negative. The main test I like just shows that stock price as reasonable. The substitute P/AFFO ratio test shows the stock as cheap, but not that cheap. The P/CF Ratio test says the stock is relatively cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price seems reasonable. However, I cannot recommend a stock which has a negative book Value. I personally like dividend growth companies and this is certainly not one.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Hold. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. The 12 month stock price is $3.41 ($2.51 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. His implies a total return of 24.99% all from capital gains.

An analysts in 2017 on Stock Chase was saying do not buy. There are few entries and analysts have lost interest in this stock. Debra Ray on Motley Fool talks about this company being into biomass plants for renewable energy. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this company’s debt is a problem. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns this company’s shares. Catie Powers on Smarter Analyst talks about insider buying at this company.

Atlantic Power Corp is an independent power producer that owns power generation assets in the United States and Canada. It has four reportable segments: Solid Fuel, Natural Gas, Hydroelectric and Corporate. A vast majority of the revenues are generated from the natural gas segment. Its web site is here Atlantic Power Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF) ... learn more on Monday, July 20, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Talking to Strangers by Malcolm Gladwell learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Obsidian Energy Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Resource Sector Stock. Stock price is relatively cheap. Debt is a problem and some comes due next year. It would seem like analysts expect the price to drop even further in the future. Any buy would be highly speculative. See my spreadsheet on Obsidian Energy Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, OTC-OBELF). I bought this stock as Maximum Energy Trust (MXT.UN) in 1998. In November 2001, there was a stock exchange and the stock became Ultimate Energy Fund. In June 2004 fund changed from Ultimate Energy Income Trust to Petrofund Energy. Petrofund Energy merged with Penn West in July 2006. The company changed its name from Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (TSX-PWT, NYSE-PWE) to Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) in 2017.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed analysts are losing interest in this stock. In 2018 there were lots of estimates, for 2019 there were only estimates for Revenue and EPS. For 2020 and 2021 I have found estimates for Revenue, EPS and CFPS.

The dividends were cancelled in 2015. They had not made a profit for a few years prior and have not made a profit since either.

Debt could be a problem, especially long term which really comes due in 2021. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.40 which is fine. However, they were renegotiating their debt. The ratio should have been 6.79. The Long Term Debt then went back up for the first quarter and the ratio is 11.00. The main reason is the crash of the stock price, but this ratio has been higher than 1.00 since 2018.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 0.28, but if you add in cash flow and current portion of the long term debt it is 1.46. I prefer 1.50 or better but this is fine. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.34. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are good at 1.74 and 0.74.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-33.93%	-42.61%	-44.08%	1.47%
2009	10	-26.78%	-28.39%	-38.98%	10.59%
2004	15	-19.39%	-1.60%	-29.66%	28.05%
1999	20	-10.61%	32.21%	-18.77%	50.98%
1995	23	-8.19%	9.02%	-20.60%	29.62%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative. The corresponding 10 year ratios are also negative. The corresponding historical ratios are 5.22, 7.55 and 11.00. The current P/E Ratio is negative as is the one for 2021. So, we cannot do this test.

This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $1.03. This is the best I can do. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.38, 3.64 and 5.59. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.57 based on a stock price of $0.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.50. The current P/B Ratios is 0.12 based on a stock price of $0.59, Book Value of $346M and a Book Value per Share of $4.74. The current P/B Ratio is 75% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.78. The current P/CF Ratio is 1.18 based on 2020 CFPS of $0.50, Cash Flow of $36.5M and a stock price of $0.59. The current ratio is 83% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I can not do any dividend yield tests as the dividends were suspended in 2016.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.55. The current P/S Ratio is 0.18 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $236M, Revenue per Share of $3.23 and a stock price of $0.59. The current ratio is 88% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. This can come as no surprise. All the test except the P/E Ratio test and Dividend yield test shows this. I could not do the P/E Ratio test nor the Dividend Yield Test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This company is selling relatively cheap. Just because the stock price is cheap does not make this a good buy. A buy would be highly speculative. It is not the sort I would buy. However, I tend not to buy resource stocks at the best of times

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (1), Sell (3). The consensus would be a Sell. The 12 month stock price consensus is $0.07. This would imply a total loss of 88%, all a capital loss.

The last entries were in 2019 and analysts say on Stock Chase do not buy. Mat Litalien on Motley Fool was positive about this stock but this was in August 2019. A writer on Simply Wall Street does a review of this stock in February of this year. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider buying at this company. There is a notice by this company on BOE Report of this company now trading as a OTC in the US market. The company has been delisted from the NYSE.

Obsidian Energy Ltd, is an intermediate-sized oil and gas producer with strategic assets in Alberta. It operates in a single reporting segment that is exploration, development and holding an interest in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. Its web site is here Obsidian Energy Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT) ... learn more on Friday, July 17, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Why Black Wealth Matters in White Americalearn more on July 16, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Rise and Fall by Paul Strathern learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

TMX Group Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Stock price is relatively expensive. There is a vulnerability in the low Liquidity Ratio. Dividend growth seems to be slowing. See my spreadsheet on TMX Group Ltd.

I do not own this stock of TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF). I looked at this stock in 2008 after I found it on a list of Strongest Dividend Growth stocks. I am interested in such stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the Liquidity Ratios are really low. The one for 2019 is just 1.02. There is no safety margin. It is interesting that this company is expanding beyond Canada’s boarders and is increasing revenue from outside Canada.

I also noticed that the earnings are growing much faster than Revenue. Revenue per Share over the past 5 and 10 years grew at 1.67% and 6.72% per year. EPS over the past 5 and 10 years grew at 18.81% and 12.00% per year. However, looking further into this, I find the same is not for the 5 year running growth. Revenue per Share grew over the past 5 and 10 years for 5 year running at 8.31% and 6.96% per year. EPS per Share grew over the past 5 and 10 years for 5 year running at 7.04% and 11.85% per year. It is the 5 year running figures that count in the long run.

The dividend yields are currently low with dividend growth currently moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.98%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.82%, 3.13% and 3.04%. The dividend growth has varied over time, but it is currently moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.16% per year over the past 5 years. But the last increase was lower in the low range at 6.5% for 2020.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 57% with 5 year coverage at 53%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 30% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 53% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 2.03 with 5 year coverage at 2.43.

Debt Ratios are fine, but I would like to see a better Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good and low at 0.12. The Liquidity Ratio is very low at 1.02. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.12, but more leeway is given to financials, so it is fine. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are high at 9.25 and 8.25, but this is financial, so for financials these tend to be rather high.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	9.16%	20.14%	17.32%	2.82%
2009	10	5.02%	16.21%	13.00%	3.21%
2004	15	10.17%	13.28%	10.02%	3.26%
2002	17	13.02%	22.03%	14.87%	7.15%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.09, 15.18 and 17.55. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.75, 15.39 and 18.91. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.85, 21.36 and 25.02. The current P/E Ratio is 25.43 based on a stock price of $133.51 and 2020 EPS estimate of $5.25. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $85.73. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.07 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.56 based on a stock price of $133.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 2.15 based on a stock price of $133.51 and Book Value of $3,499M and a Book Value per Share of $62.22. The current ratio is 88% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.47. The current P/CF Ratio is 19.55 based on 2020 CFPS estimate of $6.83, Cash Flow of $384M and a stock price of $133.51. The current ratio is 87% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.04%. The current dividend yield is 1.98% based on dividends of $2.64 and a stock price of $133.51. The current dividend yield is 35% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.13%. The current dividend yield is 1.98% based on dividends of $2.64 and a stock price of $133.51. The current dividend yield is 37% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.80. The current P/S Ratio is 8.67 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $866, Revenue per Share of $15.40 and a stock price of $133.51. The current ratio is 81% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively expensive. The dividend yield tests show this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. All the tests show the same thing. I see not a problem with any of the tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock has done well for its shareholders and it is a dividend growth stock. I see the low Liquidity Ratio as a problem, but overall, it is a good stock and it is going international. However, it would seem that this stock is relatively expensive at this time.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $142.86. This implies a total return o 8.98%, with 7.00% from capital gains and 1.98% from dividends.

The most recent analyst comments on Stock Chase is positive. Brian Paradza on Motley Fool thinks this company has strong wealth creation potential. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this company has good dividend prospects. Addison Kliewer on Bloomberg News says the best performing financials in the TSX it is the exchange itself. This stock rated a D score on Money Sense stocks of 2020.

TMX Group Ltd operates global markets and builds digital communities and analytic solutions that facilitate the funding, growth, and success of businesses, traders, and investors. TMX Group operates offices across North America (Montreal, Calgary, Vancouver, and New York), as well as in key international markets including London and Singapore. Its web site is here TMX Group Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Obsidian Energy Ltd (TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 15, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Ontario Securities Commission.... learn more on Tuesday, July 14, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Inter Pipeline Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Their debt is too high. They just cut their dividends, but analysts think that they will rise them again in the future. See my spreadsheet on Inter Pipeline Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF). In 2008, a friend had asked me about this pipeline and I had no information on it, so I investigated it. It is a utility and I follow lots of utility stocks. They used to be a Limited Partnership and they changed to a corporation in 2013.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that no matter how you look at it, the Liquidity Ratio is very low. The 5 year median is just 0.15 where what you want in this ratio is one that is 1.50 or above. The ratio for 2019 is just 0.14. If you add in cash flow after dividends and just use dividends paid in cash, plus add back the current portion of long term debt it is just 1.25. This could become a problem is they cannot roll over current debt.

The dividend yields are currently moderate with dividend growth low. This company recently reduced the dividends by 72%. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.91%. The dividend yields used to be higher. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.38% and 6.00%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% and over) at 8.21%. This company used to be a Limited Partnership and as such had very high dividend yields. In 2000 dividend yields were over 17%.

This company used to be a limited partnership and similar to income trusts where yields were high and payouts could be higher than earnings. However, when these companies become corporations, they have to get their dividends under earnings. This company tried to do this and still give increasing dividends. They had not gotten the dividends lower than earnings nor were they able to raise the earnings to cover the dividends. They had been doing increases in the low range (under 8%), until they decreased the dividends this year. However, analysts think that they will increase the dividends again in a couple of years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need to be improved. The DPR for 2019 for EPS is 130% with 5 year coverage at 117% and these rates are too high. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 89% with 5 year coverage at 68%. For this DPR you would want to have the ratio at 40% or less. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 84% with 5 year coverage at 99%. These are also too high. It is interesting that Morningstar, Wall Street Journal and Market Screener all disagree on the FCF, but whatever one you use the ratios are too high. Analysts think these ratios might be good by 2021.

Debt Ratios are need improving, but have always been ugly. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.45. It is higher currently at 0.83 because of a big drop in the stock price. The Liquidity Ratio is just 0.14 for 2019. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends and add back in the current portion of the Long Term Debt, it is still low at just 1.25. It gets even lower currently at 1.02. This is as low as the Liquidity Ratio has ever got. You want it at 1.50 or high.

The Debt Ratio is low at 1.46 and it has a 5 year median of 1.50. This is ok but I prefer it be 1.50 or above. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.17 and 2.17 and these are too high. I prefer them to be less than 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	5.55%	-3.50%	-8.91%	5.41%
2009	10	7.37%	16.30%	7.62%	8.68%
2004	15	5.84%	14.15%	6.19%	7.97%
1999	20	5.04%	18.57%	7.93%	10.64%
1997	22	3.87%	10.18%	3.76%	6.42%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.13, 18.46 and 21.08. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.13, 17.86 and 20.50. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.13, 17.86 and 19.92. The current P/E Ratio is 18.61 based on a stock price of $12.28 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $0.66. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $12.03. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.55 and 1.82. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price of $12.28. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.98. The current P/B Ratio is 1.26 based on a Book Value of $4, 147M, Book Value per Share of $9.75 and a stock price of $12.28. The current ratio is 58% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 11.23. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.44 based on 2020 CFPS estimate of $1.65, Cash Flow of $702M and a stock price of $12.28. The current ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.21%. The current dividend yield is 3.91% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $12.28. The current yield is 52% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.00%. The current dividend yield is 3.91% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $12.28. The current yield is 35% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.59. The current P/S Ratio is 2.33 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $2,238M, Revenue per Share of $5.26 and a stock price of $12.28. The current ratio is 49% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. The P/S Ratio test is showing the stock price as cheap and so is the P/B Ratio test. The problems with the dividend yield tests is that dividends have just been cut by 72% and as this company used to be a Limited Partnership, past dividend yields would have been unusually high.

The P/CF test is also showing the stock price as cheap and there is nothing wrong with this test. The P/E Ratio tests is showing the price as reasonable but above the median. However, EPS is expected to drop a lot this year, so this would make the P/E Ratio relatively high. There is nothing wrong with the P/GP Ratio tests except possibly the same problem as the P/E Ratio tests. This test is showing the stock price as cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Generally, pipeline companies are the place to be as they tend to be good dividend growth stocks. However, I do not like the debt ratios on this stock and especially the Liquidity Ratio. Low Liquidity Ratios can get a company in trouble if there is a sudden economic problem and a company cannot roll over their debt.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (14). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock market consensus stock price is $13.06. This implies a total return of $10.26% with 6.35% from capital gains and 3.91% from dividends.

There are several Don’t Buy by analysts on Stock Chase. Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool says that it is a buy if you think management can right this ship. In June 2020, a writer on Simply Wall Street said that the dividend was non-sustainable. The company talks about raising debt on BOE Report in May 2020. In March 2020 Reuters had an article about this company cutting its dividend and halting the planned sale of its European bulk liquid storage business.

Inter Pipeline operates crude oil pipelines, natural gas liquids extraction, and bulk liquid storage businesses in Canada and Europe. Its web site is here Inter Pipeline Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Morneau Shepell Inc (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF) ... learn more on Monday, July 13, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Reality Bubble by Ziya Tong learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Morneau Shepell Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. The stock price is relatively expensive. The dividend has not changed since 2012 and they still cannot cover it. Good earnings in the first quarter is because of a special event. ROE is very low. Outstanding shares are rising. Debt is increasing. See my spreadsheet on Morneau Shepell Inc.

I do not own this stock of Morneau Shepell Inc (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF). Every once in a while, I go through the stocks that my brokerage, TD Waterhouse, is recommending to find promising new stocks. In February 2013 this stock was rated a buy by TD Waterhouse. It was under Diversified Financials.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that Long Term Debt is rising fast. It increased by 108.37% in 2018, by 25.66% in 2019 and by 24.61% in the first quarter of 2020. Goodwill and intangibles increased by 90% in 2018. They seemed to have done well in the first quarter on EPS, but almost all the earnings are because of a divestiture of a business. Insider bought when the stock went below $28 in March. However, there was some insider selling recently at $33.00.

Outstanding shares are increasing at 6.8% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. They are giving out a lot of stock options. Stock Options have increased the outstanding shares by 0.70% on average each year for the past 5 years. You would expect this to be at 0.50% or less. Return on Equity is low at 3.1% in 2019 with 5 year average at 5.5%.

Another problem I see in the Return on Equity (ROE). This has been very low. The highest it ever reached at 9.6%, but it has often been below 3%. For the last two years it has been below 4% and the 5 year median ROE is just 5.45%.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.48%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 3.81% and 4.91%. The historical dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.60%. This company started as a income trust. Income trusts tend to have quite high dividend yields. This is the reason for this historical median being high.

Shortly after this company listed as an Income Trust, the rules were changed and this company had to become a corporation. It had a few increases as an income trust, but became a corporation in 2011 and decrease the dividend by around 16%. However, as a corporation, the company needed to cover the dividends by earnings. It looks like this it will finally do this in 2020. So, since 2012, the dividend has been flat. They cannot do dividend increases until they can cover the dividends by earnings. Whether or not it will become a dividend growth company now is not certain, but a possibility.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) still need improvement. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 279% with 5 year coverage at 188%. These ratios are far too high. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 39% with 5 year coverage at 42%. This coverage is good if 40% or less. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 128% with 5 year coverage at 109%. These are too high also.

Debt Ratios are currently fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.21. Debt is increasing but the current ratio is still good at 0.27. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is 1.19 and if you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is just 1.25. The 5 year median is better at 1.66. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.68. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.47 and 1.47.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	17.62%	14.10%	3.52%
2009	10	-0.62%	18.44%	13.15%	5.29%
2004	15	-0.44%	13.26%	8.46%	4.80%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 42.50, 48.53 and 54.76. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 27.78, 33.84 and 38.90. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 27.88, 34.66 and 37.88. The current P/E Ratio is 24.70, based on a stock price of $31.51 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.15. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $16.22. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.76, 2.04 and 2.34. The current P/.GP Ratio is 1.94 based on a stock price of $31.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.44. The current P/B Ratio is 3.10 based on a Book Value of $708M, Book Value per Share of $10.17 and a stock price of $31.51. The current P/B Ratio is 27% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 14.82. The current P/CF Ratio is 28.65 based on CFPS 2020 estimate of $1.10, Cash Flow of $76.5M and a stock price of $31.51. The current ratio is 93% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.60. The current dividend yield is 2.48% based on dividends of $0.78 and a stock price of $31.51. The current dividend yield is 56% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.91. The current dividend yield is 2.48% based on dividends of $0.78 and a stock price of $31.51. The current dividend yield is 50% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.42. The current P/S Ratio is 2.23 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $983M, Revenue per Share of $14.13 and a stock price of $31.51. The current ratio is 57% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The dividend yield tests show the stock price is relatively expensive and this is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. There is nothing wrong with these tests. Although one could argue there is a problem with the dividend yield tests because of the flat dividends. The P/B Ratio test says the stock price is relatively expensive and there is nothing wrong with this test.

The P/E Ratio test has a problem as there is a big hike expected in the EPS, but the hike in the EPS for the first quarter is due to a special event. This problem would also affect the P/GP Ratio test. The P/CP Ratio tests is using an older 2020 CFPS estimate, so this could possibly be suspect.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? First this stock would seem to be relatively expensive. I cannot recommend this stock as a dividend growth stock as dividends are flat. I cannot recommend it as a dividend stock because they cannot cover their dividends, have a very low ROE, give out lots of stock options and recently been diluting the shares by selling more shares. Investors looking for capital gain might find this attractive if the price was lower.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $36.75. This implies a total return of 19.11% with 16.63% from capital gains and 2.48% from dividends.

The most recent entry is in 2019 and the analyst on Stock Chase feels this is a solid slow-growth company. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool currently likes this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about recent earnings not being as good as they first appear because of stock dilution and special items. A Writer on Simply Wall Street says this company has unfortunate characteristics that would lead to sub-optimal outcome for dividend investors.. Paul Sywulych of Morneau, Shepell talks on FinTech Magazine on how his companies works.

Morneau Shepell is a human resources company that provides consulting and administrative services in four segments: well-being, administrative outsourcing, consulting, and absence management. The company generates most of its revenue in the United States and Canada. Its web site is here Morneau Shepell Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Suncor Energy Inc (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF) ... learn more on Friday, July 10, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Evergreen Gavekal.... learn more on Thursday, July 09, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Suncor Energy Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Resource. Stock price is probably relatively cheap. Analysts expect big declines in earnings, cash flow and revenue this year with a recovery starting in 2021. They might have a hard time covering the dividends this year and next year things easing in 2022. See my spreadsheet on Suncor Energy Inc.

I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU. PCA and SU merged in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that analysts do not expect this company will do very well this year, but they expect better things in 2021 and 2022. This is showing up in the first quarter of 2020 where there is an EPS loss of $2.31. There is also a 40% decline in Revenue expected and over 66% decline in Cash Flow expected.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.64%. The 5, 10 year median dividend yields are moderate at 3.17% and 2.85%. The historical median yield is low (below 2%) at 0.67%. They have had a good record of dividend increase. However, this year they reduced the dividend by 55%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) could be improved. The DPR for 2019 for EPS is 91% with 5 year coverage at 123%. This is too high. The DPR for 2019 for CFPS is 24% with 5 year coverage at 25%. This is fine. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is 54% with 5 year coverage at 90%. The 5 year coverage is too high.

Debt Ratios are currently fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is good at 0.20. It is currently higher, but still good at 0.39. It went up because of increased debt, but also more from the decline in the stock price. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is low at 0.94. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is 1.68. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is fine at 1.89. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2019 are 2.13 and 1.13 and are fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	10.49%	6.29%	2.90%	3.40%
2009	10	18.80%	3.72%	1.35%	2.37%
2004	15	21.21%	5.87%	3.92%	1.95%
1999	20	18.85%	10.75%	8.72%	2.03%
1995	24	18.92%	10.17%	8.43%	1.74%

I decided also to do one to date as a lot has changed for this stock this year. The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to date. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below. Currently long term investors are doing less well.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-0.80%	-3.94%	-8.39%	4.44%
2009	10	10.59%	-1.48%	-4.95%	3.47%
2004	15	17.06%	-0.36%	-3.01%	2.65%
1999	20	15.39%	4.86%	2.20%	2.65%
1995	25	15.97%	8.11%	5.46%	2.65%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.59, 22.31 and 24.85. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.47, 16.71 and 19.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.19, 22.46 and 27.69. The current P/E Ratio is negative, so this test cannot be done. The P/E Ratio for 2021 is 32.01 and for 2022 is 11.47. Problem is that earnings over this year and next are expected to be non-existent to low.

I get a Graham Price of $20.08. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.01 and 1.18. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.15 based on a stock price of $23.05. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. There are problems with the Graham Price calculation because of 2020 negative EPS, but this is my best guess for a Graham Price.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.36. The current P/B Ratio is 1.25 based on a Book Value of $37,965M, Book Value of 24.89 and a Stock price of $23.05. The current ratio is 32% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.55. The current ratio is 10.20 based on a stock price of $23.05, CFPS estimate for 2020 of $2.26 and Cash Flow of $3,447. The current ratio is 56% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, this current ratio is high because cash flow is expected to drop in 2020. In 2021, the ratio is expected to be 5.27, 20% lower than the 10 year ratio.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.67%. The current dividend yield is 3.64% based on a stock price of $23.05 and dividends of $0.84. The current dividend yield is 444% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.85%. The current dividend yield is 3.64% based on a stock price of $23.05 and dividends of $0.84. The current dividend yield is 28% higher than the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.53. The current P/S is 1.48 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $23,706, Revenue per Share of $15.54 and a stock price of $23.05. The current ratio is 3% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio for 2021 is 1.24, which is 19% below the 10 year ratio.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. The only clear test with no problems is the P/B Ratio test and this shows the stock as cheap. The Dividend Yield tests are showing the stock price as cheap even though the dividends were recently cut by 54%. The P/S Ratio test shows the stock price as reasonable and below the median. However, Revenues are expected to fall big time in 2020, but start to recover in 2021.

The P/CF Ratio test is showing the stock price as expensive, but this is also because the cash flow is expected to take a big drop in 2020 and also start to recover in 2021. Both the P/GP Ratio test and the P/E Ratio tests are affected by the negative EPS expected in 2020.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price is probably reasonable. However, even though some people have made money long term in resource stocks and they make up a lot of the TSX, I have little in resource stocks and tend not to recommend them.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (8), Buy (12) and Hold (5) recommendations. The 1 year stock price consensus is $31.74. This implies a total return of $41.34% based on a current stock price of $23.05 with 37.70% from capital gains and 3.64% from dividends.

Analysts feel this is currently a buy on Stock Chase. Brian Pacampara on Motley Fool thinks this stock is currently a buy because it can maintain cash flows. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the P/E Ratio for this stock is higher than others in the sector. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this company has too much debt. Shelly Janes on Modern Reader talks about FDx Advisors buying shares in this company.

Suncor Energy is one of Canada's largest integrated energy companies, operating in western Canada, east coast Canada, the United States, and the North Sea. Its web site is here Suncor Energy Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Morneau Shepell Inc (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 07, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Royal Caribbean.... learn more on Tuesday, July 6, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Premium Brands Holdings Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Stock price is probably relatively expensive. DPRs are declining. Debt Ratios are good. This Hold recommendation is probably the right one. See my spreadsheet on Premium Brands Holdings Corp.

I do not own this stock of Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF). I was looking for another stock to follow and I found this is one of the top stocks in TD Bank's Canadian Equity Fund.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that although it used to be an income trust company, since changing to a corporation, they have brought their Dividend Payout Ratios under control and have been giving some good increases lately. The recent dividend increases suggest that the company see good times ahead for their company.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 2.66%. The 5 and 10 year dividend yields are also moderate at 2.43% and 4.82%. The historical median dividend yield is in the good range (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.65%. This company used to be an income trust and income trust stocks have much higher dividend yields (and payouts) than corporations.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are high, but they are coming down. The DPR for 2019 for EPS is 88% with 5 year coverage at 76%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 34% with 5 year coverage at 36%. The DPR for 2019 for Free Cash Flow is 96% with 5 year coverage at 84%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 1.04 with the 5 year ratio at 1.20.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.18 with a current one at 0.24. The increase in this ratio is mostly due to an increase in debt in the first quarter of 27%. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 1.72 as is the Debt Ratio at 1.96. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.74 and 1.40.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	10.40%	34.20%	30.08%	4.12%
2009	10	4.87%	25.84%	20.92%	4.92%
2004	15	4.05%	23.28%	16.42%	6.86%
1999	20		7.90%	6.12%	1.78%
1995	24		14.36%	11.99%	2.37%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.86, 32.20 and 40.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 23.30, 31.82 and 39.31. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.74, 15.65 and 19.95. The current P/E Ratio is 34.87 based on a stock price of $86.32 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.31. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $38.94. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.59, 2.06 and 2.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.23 based on a stock price of $36.82. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.59. The current P/B Ratio is 2.98 based on a stock price of $36.82, Book Value of $1091M and Book Value per Share of $29.17. The current ratio is 15% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.97. The Current P/CF Ratio is 15.48 based on a stock price of $36.82, 2020 CFPS estimate of $5.61 and Cash Flow of $209.8M. The current ratio is 3% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.65%. The current dividend yield is 2.66% based on dividends of $2.31 and a stock price of $86.32. The current dividend is 60% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.82%. The current dividend yield is 2.66% based on dividends of $2.31 and a stock price of $86.32. The current dividend is 45% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.52. The current P/S Ratio is 0.86 based on a stock price of $86.32, 2020 Revenue estimate of $3.797M, Revenue per Share of $101.52. The current ratio is 64% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The P/S Ratio test is probably the best one and it says the stock price is expensive. Although the P/S Ratio of 0.86 is a good ratio. I know that the dividend yield tests say the same thing, but since this stock used to be an income trust, the median dividend yields have a tendency to be on the high side.

The P/B Ratio tests is generally good because it uses no estimates and it says that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. The P/E Ratio and P/GP Ratio says the same thing and there is nothing wrong with these tests. There is also nothing wrong with the P/CF test that says the stock price is reasonable and below the median and the only test to say so.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably no reasonable at this point. This is especially true since we are supposed to be in a bear market. I think that this is a good company and has done well for its shareholders. However, I wonder if now is a good time to buy. I do not think so. However, it was expected that old income trust stocks would have a lower dividend yield caused by declining dividends or increasing stock price or a combination of both. The dividends did decline a bit in 2009, but most of the decline in yield is due to the rise in stock price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3), Hold (3) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months stock price is $88.50. This implies a total return of 4.60% with 1.94% from capital gains and 2.66% from dividends.

Analyst seem to like this stock on Stock Chase. Vineet Kulkarni on Motley Fool thinks this is a good defensive stock and its high P/E Ratio is justified. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the intrinsic value of this stock is $164.21 and it is selling at $83.75. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this company is paying out too much of its EPS and FCF. The company has announced on Global Newswire their intentions of raising capital to fund future acquisitions..

Premium Brands Holdings Corp is engaged in specialty food manufacturing, premium food distribution and wholesale businesses with operations in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nevada, and Washington State. Its web site is here Premium Brands Holdings Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Suncor Energy Inc (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU) ... learn more on Monday, July 06, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Dangerous Melodies by Jonathan Rosenberg learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Empire Company Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Stock price seems to be reasonable and below the median. Debt Ratios should be improved. DPRs are very good. See my spreadsheet on Empire Company Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF). I have known about this stock for some time before I decided to follow it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the financial statements took a big hit in 2016 because of the Safeway buy. The last 5 year grow has not been very good. Look at book value, it is down over the past 5 years by 7.6% per year and up over the past 10 years is up just 0.2% per year. They have not been able to growth Book Value since 2016. However, these has been some growth in Revenue over the past couple of years, and growth in EPS over the past couple of years.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is low (under 2%) at 1.59%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also low at 1.64%, 1.56% and 1.45%. The dividend increases are low (under 8% per year) with the 5 year growth at 5.92% per year. However, the last increase was better. It was just over 8% at 8.33% and it was for this year. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are very good. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 22% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The DPR for2019 for CFPS is 7% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for 2019 for Free Cash Flow is 9% with 5 year coverage at 20%. Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 11.30 with the 5 year ratio at 5.02.

Debt Ratios are need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good and low at 0.23. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.80. If you add in cash Flow after dividends it is still too low at 1.28. The Debt Ratio is also too low at 1.38. I like these last two debt ratios to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 3.73 and 2.71. I prefer them to be under 3.00 and under 2.00 respectively. The 5 year ratios are better at 2.40 and 1.38.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	5.92%	2.29%	0.84%	1.45%
2009	10	6.88%	8.45%	6.72%	1.73%
2004	15	7.60%	9.33%	7.52%	1.81%
1999	20	12.36%	11.73%	9.69%	2.04%
1994	25	11.26%	13.01%	10.91%	2.10%
1989	30	10.11%	9.95%	8.48%	1.47%
1984	35	9.78%	15.05%	12.33%	2.71%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.99, 18.95 and 21.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.94, 17.32 and 20.70. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.96, 12.17 and 14.18. The current P/E Ratio is 14.44 based on a stock price of $32.64 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.26. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $27.31. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.16 and 1.36. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.20 based on a stock price of $32.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.32. The current P/B Ratio is 2.23 based on a stock price of $32.64, Book Value of $3947M, and Book Value per Share of $14.67. The current ratio is 69% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Since taking a big loss in 2016, they have not been able to build their Book Value. This account for the high P/B Ratio. It can be a problem if they continue to not be able to build up the Book Value.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.64. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.16 based on 2020 CFPS estimate of $5.30, Cash Flow of $1,426 and a stock price of $32.64. The current P/CF ratio is 7% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.45%. The current dividend yield is 1.59% based on dividends of $0.52 and a stock price of $32.64. The current dividend is 10% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.56%. The current dividend yield is 1.59% based on dividends of $0.52 and a stock price of $32.64. The current dividend is 2% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.27. The current P/S Ratio is 0.32 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $27,149, Revenue per Share of $100.88 and a stock price of $32.64. The current ratio is 21% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. This is the results of the dividend yield tests and it was confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The P/S Ratio test said that the stock price was cheap, but at 21%, it was just over the line to cheap. The other test says that the stock price is reasonable and below the median except for the P/B Ratio test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable. They have done a decent job for their shareholders over the years. They seem to have started to recover from the problems of 2016. Their purchase of Safeway and expansion into the Western Canada was not handled well. Personally, I own Metro and I have been pleased with them. I will not be purchasing any other grocery store stock.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) Buy (5) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $37.67. This implies a total return of 17% with 15.41% from capital gains and 1.59% from dividends.

Some analysts on Stock Chase talk about liking Metro or Loblaws better. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks if there is another correction grocery stocks would be good, and this stock in particular. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the CEO of this company is being paid a similar amount as the median CEO pay. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that although the yield is not high the company has a good record of dividend payments and can afford their dividends. Empire starts online shopping in GTA says company item on News Wire.

Empire Co Ltd key businesses are food retailing, investments, and other operations. The food retailing division operates through Empire's subsidiary Sobeys and represents nearly all of the company's income. Its web site is here Empire Company Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Saputo Inc (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF) ... learn more on Friday, July 03, 2020 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy July 2020.... learn more on Thursday July 02 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book Great Leaders Live Like Drug Addicts by Michael Brody-Waite learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.