Rogers Sugar Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumer. It would seem that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. It is probably closer to the cheap side. The dividend yield is still very good at 7.50%. The DPR is still too high, but I expect it will be soon bought under control. See my spreadsheet on Rogers Sugar Inc .

I do not own this stock of Rogers Sugar Inc (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF). This stock was brought to my attention by Dividend Ninja. This company used to be an Income Trust (TSX-RSI.UN) but it has been converted to a corporation. On its change to a corporation, it lowered its dividend.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it has always had a very high dividend yield. The has occurred even after it ceased being a income trust stock. The current dividend yield is 7.50%.

Dividends are good (5% or over). Dividends have been high on this stock. The current dividend yield is 7.50%. The 5, 10, and historical dividend yields are 6.32%, 6.25% and 9.17%. This company used to be an income and the dividend yield peaked just over 15%. The best to be said of dividend growth is that the dividends have stabilized. They have been level since 2012. The company cut its dividend after changing to a corporation from an Income Trust.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are still a problem. The DPR for EPS are still too high, especially after having an income loss in 2019. 2018 was the first year when the DPR for EPS was belong 100% and it is expected to be around 92% in 2020. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 40% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 130% with 5 year coverage at 94%. The Free Cash Flow is getting lower over the past 5 years, so this is going in the wrong direction.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap ratio is 0.28 which is fine. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.90 with 5 year median at 1.75. These both are good. The Debt Ratio is 1.52 with 5 year median of 1.67. Both of these are fine. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.93 and 1.96 with 5 year ratios at 2.24 and 1.24. These ratios are normal.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	8.19%	0.71%	7.48%
2009	10	-2.42%	8.43%	0.10%	8.33%
2004	15	-2.00%	9.56%	0.60%	8.97%
1999	20	-4.55%	9.10%	-0.28%	9.38%
1997	22	-3.11%	4.27%	-2.76%	7.02%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.26, 13.72 and 15.19. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.08, 13.84 and 14.67. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.02, 9.84 and 11.16. The current P/E Ratio is 12.31 based on a stock price of $4.80 and 0.39. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $4.84. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.02, 1.16 and 1.27. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.99 based on a stock price of $4.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.90. The current P/B Ratio is 1.80 based on a Book Value of $280M, Book Value per Share of $2.67 and a stock price of $4.80. The current ratio is 5.6% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 9.17. The current dividend yield is 7.50% based on a stock price of $4.80 and dividends of $0.36. The current yield is 18.2% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year dividend yield is 6.25%. The current yield of 7.50% is some 20% above this dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.83. The current P/S Ratio is 0.64 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $783M, Revenue per Share of $7.47 and a stock price of $4.80. The current ratio is 22.5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap to reasonable. Both the P/S Ratio and the Dividend Yield 10 year median tests shows the stock price is relatively cheap. I would suspect this stock is on the cheap side.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I prefer dividend growth stock However; this stock has produced a very good yield in dividends and you would probably not lose much in capital over a long term. So. I can see why dividend investors have bought this stock.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Hold (4) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be hold. The 10 month stock price consensus is $4.75. This implies a total return of 6.46% with a capital loss of 1.04% and dividends of 7.50%.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They are not keen on this stock, but say that the dividend is safe. Nelson Smith on Motley Fool says stock is cheap and solid. A writer on Simply Wall Street says they are not conformable recommending this stock because of lack of coverage of dividend and lack of EPS growth. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the stock’s fair value is $6.76. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the CEO’s Salary is typical for the size of the company, however some shareholders are not pleased because of declining EPS and Revenue.

Rogers Sugar Inc is a Canada based sugar producing company. The company through its subsidiary is principally engaged in refining, packaging, and marketing of sugar products. The products offered by the company include iced tea mix, stevia, yellow sugar, hot chocolate mix, granulated sugar, brown sugar, organic sugar, icing sugar, coconut sugar, and other related sugar products. It operates in below reportable segments; Sugar and Maple products in Canada and internationally, of which majority of the revenue is generated within Canada. Its web site is here Rogers Sugar Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Calian Group Ltd (TSX-CGY, OTC-CLNFF) ... learn more on January 10, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy January 2020.... learn more on January 9, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Royal Bank of Canada

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The stock price is probably reasonable. Analysts seem to think banks in 2020 will not do as well as they did in recent previous years. Any investment that give a total return of 8% or more is a good investment. This bank has met that requirement. See my spreadsheet on Royal Bank of Canada .

I own this stock of Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY). I bought this bank in 1995. My total return to the end of 2019 is 17.29% per year with 11.58% per year from capital gains and 5.71% from dividends. I have a yield of 57.9% on my original investment. This is why you buy dividend growth stocks.

Say I paid $10,000 for shares in 1995. I would have bought just over 1378 Shares, and I would have shares at the end of December 2019 valued at $141,608.17 and I would have received to the end of December 2019 $59,699.38 in dividends. This is after just over 24 years investing.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed dividend growth and total return are currently lower than they were previous. The dividend growth for the last two years was over 8% again. As a bank, they tend to raise their dividends twice in a year. The last increase was occurred last in 2019 and it was for just 2.9%. In the financial years ending in October 2018 and 2019, the increases were just over 4%.

It would also seem that for Canadian Banks, loan loss provisions are higher. See an article by Geoff Zochodne in the Financial Post. Jonathan Ratner in the Financial Post talks about changes to the accounting rules.

The dividend yield on this bank is in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend yield is 4.06%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 3.95%, 3.92% and 3.95%. Currently the dividend growth is low (under 8%). See the chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 46% with 5 year coverage at 45%. The DPR for CFPS is 41% with 5 year coverage at 40%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 59%. (Note that currently I have getting FCF values from Wall Street Journal.)

Debt Ratios are fine. Since this is a bank, you look at Assets covering long term Liabilities. The Debt/Asset Ratio for 2019 is 0.70. I do calculate a Liquidity Ratio, but it is not an important ratio for banks. The Debt Ratio is 1.06. For banks this should be 1.04 or higher. Leverage is calculated differently for banks and RBC says has one of 4.3% which is probably a bit high.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

When looking at this data, be aware that we had a big bull market from 1982 to 2000.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	5.59%	8.12%	4.14%	3.98%
2009	10	3.61%	10.49%	6.07%	4.42%
2004	15	6.33%	7.68%	3.77%	3.91%
1999	20	7.58%	12.26%	7.29%	4.97%
1994	25	7.95%	14.03%	8.51%	5.52%
1989	30	6.96%	14.47%	8.75%	5.72%
1984	35	6.17%	14.66%	8.56%	6.10%
1983	36	6.00%	12.93%	7.74%	5.19%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.51, 11.44 and 12.46. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.68, 11.76 and 12.80. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.29, 12.09 and 13.51. The current P/E Ratio is 11.32 based on a stock price of $103.55 ad 2020 EPS estimate of $9.15. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $105.82. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.92, 1.02 and 1.12. The current ratio is 0.98 based on a stock price of $103.55. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.98. The current P/B Ratio is 1.90 based on Book Value of $77,817M, Book Value per Share of $54.39 and a stock price of $103.55. The current ratio is 3.9% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.95%. The current dividend yield is 4.06% based on dividends of $4.20 and a stock price of $103.55. The current dividend yield is 2.7% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median dividend yield is 3.92%. The current dividend yield at 4.06% is 3.5% above this yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.01. The current P/S Ratio is 3.25 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $45,546M, Revenue per Share of $31.84 and a stock price of $103.55. The current ratio is 3.3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The testing is showing the price both above and below the median, but not by much. The P/S Ratio is showing that it could be a bit high.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that this is a good bank to invest in. Most Canadian Banks are good investments. You generally get a moderate yield and moderate dividend growth. I think that the current price is probably reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (5), Hold (5), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). There is usually a big spread on banks, but seldom a Sell recommendation. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $111.19. This implies a total return of 11.43% with 7.38% from capital gains and 4.06% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Analysts do like this bank. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool thinks RBC is a safer bank play. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that 46% of this bank is owned by institutions. John Aiken on Bloomberg says not to expect much in dividend growth in Banks in 2020. Royal Bank is his least favourite because of its higher valuation. Andrew Button on Motley Fool says there is a sale on Royal Bank.

Royal Bank of Canada is one of the two largest banks in Canada. It is a diversified financial services company, offering personal and commercial banking, wealth-management services, insurance, corporate banking, and capital markets services. The bank is concentrated in Canada, with additional operations in the U.S. and other countries. Its web site is here Royal Bank of Canada .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Rogers Sugar Inc (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF) ... learn more on January 8, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks January 2020.... learn more on January 4, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Bank of Montreal

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. The stock price seems reasonable but to the high side. See my spreadsheet on Bank of Montreal.

I own this stock of Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO). I made two investments in this bank, one in 1987 and one in 2008. My total return to the end of 2019 is 15.42% per year with 8.86% per year from capital gains and 6.56% per year from dividends. On the stock I bought in 1987, I am making a yield of 55.9% on the original purchase price. For the stock I bought in 2008, I am making 7.09% on the original purchase price.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed Total Return has not been as good in the last 15 year as it was for longer terms. See chart below. The stock price was reality high in 15 years ago in 2004. It is not always possible to get a cheap price, but we should try for a reasonable price for stock when we buy.

The dividend yield is generally in the moderate range (2% to 4% range). The current dividend 4.10%, with the 5, 10 and historical yields at 4.14%, 4.29% and 4.46%. As you can see from the table below, I have data on this stock going back some 36 years. The dividend growth is in the low range (below 8%). See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 46% with 5 year coverage at 47%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 23% with 5 year coverage at 40%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is 29% for 2019 with 5 year coverage ag 30%. The 5 year coverage ratio for FCF is 3.30 and I understand that a ratio of 2.50 or higher is good.

Debt Ratios are fine. Since this is a financial you do not compare the debt to the market cap, but look at Asset Coverage of the debt. The Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2019 is 0.85. For financials, the Liquidity Ratio is not important. The Debt Ratio of 1.06 is fine for a financial. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2019 are 16.68 and 15.68 are rather normal for a financial.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 36 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	5.59%	8.12%	4.14%	3.98%
2009	10	3.61%	10.49%	6.07%	4.42%
2004	15	6.33%	7.68%	3.77%	3.91%
1999	20	7.58%	12.26%	7.29%	4.97%
1994	25	7.95%	14.03%	8.51%	5.52%
1989	30	6.96%	14.47%	8.75%	5.72%
1984	35	6.17%	14.66%	8.56%	6.10%
1983	36	6.00%	12.93%	7.74%	5.19%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.07, 11.33 and 12.61. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.17, 11.34 and 12.44. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.51, 11.42 and 13.50. The current P/E Ratio is 10.42 based on a stock price of $100.46 and 2020 EPS estimate of $9.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $124.56. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.75, 0.83 and 0.93. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.81 based on a stock price of $100.46. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.45. The current P/B Ratio is 1.40 based on a stock price of $100.46, Book Value of $45,728M, and a Book Value per Share of $71.54. The current ratio is 3% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.46%. The current dividend yield is 4.10% based on a stock price of $100.46 and dividends of $4.12. The current yield is 8% below the current yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.56. The current P/S Ratio is 2.70 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $23,749M, Revenue per Share of $37.15 and a stock price of $100.46. The current ratio is 6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Both the P/S Ratio test and the dividend yield test show that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. The others are showing the stock price below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? For most of the durations of total return I looked at, it was above 8%. A total return of 8% is a good total return over a long term. The exception was the 15 year term which started in 2004. In 2004, most of the dividend yields were in the 2% range. The P/E Ratio was 13.09. So, 2004 would not have been a good year to buy this stock. All Canadian Banks seem to be good stocks to hold.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (5), Hold (5), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy, but the recommendations are all over the place. The 12 month stock price is $111.25. This implies a total return of 14.84% with 10.74% from capital gains and 4.10% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Seems this is not a favourite Canadian Bank. Adam Othman on Motley Fool talks about this bank paying dividends for the last 190 years. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the bank is trading at a fair value. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the EPS is growing faster than the stock price so he concludes that the broader market is cautious about this stock. .

Bank of Montreal is a diversified financial-services provider based in North America, operating four business segments: Canadian P&C banking, U.S. P&C banking, wealth management, and capital markets. The bank's operations are primarily in Canada, with a material portion also within the U.S. Its web site is here Bank of Montreal .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Metro Inc (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Royal Bank of Canada (TSX-RY, NYSE-RY) ... learn more on January 6. 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Metro Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is reasonable to expensive. The dividends are low, but grow nicely. This is a good stock if you are growing your stock portfolio. See my spreadsheet on Metro Inc .

I own this stock of Metro Inc (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF). I bought this stock in 2004. My total return is 17.31% per year with 15.41% per year from capital gains and 1.90% per year from dividends. Since I bought this stock my dividends have grown by 627% and I am making a yield of 13.58% on my original purchase amount. I paid $5.89 per share and my dividends per share amount to $5.28 or 89.5% of what I paid for this stock.

Also, for the RRSP account, I bought this stock in 2001 and sold it in 2009. I made on this account a total return of 12.36% with 10.81% from capital gains and 1.55% from dividends. In this account my dividends were $2.76 per share for shares I paid $17.84 per share (with 3 way split in 2015, the price was $5.95). The dividends paid are 15.5% of the cost of my shares. I sold this from my RRSP account after I start to take money yearly from this account because of the low dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that if you bought shares in the company in 1992 for approximately $1,000 ($1007.25 to be exact) you have bought 1,025 shares. Today, those shares would be worth $69,130.50 and you would have also received $7,384.72 in dividends. This is why you buy dividend growth stocks.

Dividend yields are low (under2%) and they have always been low. The current dividend is 1.51% with 5, 10 and historical yields at 1.46%, 1.57% and 1.46%. The dividend increases have mostly been good (15% or higher). See the chart below. The last dividend increase was in 2019 and it was for 11.1%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2019 was 28% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 15% with 5 year coverage also at 15%. The DPR for 2019 for Free Cash Flow is 60% with 5 year coverage at 36%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is 0.15. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 at 1.11 is low. If you added cash flow after dividends you get 1.64. The Debt Ratio for 2019 is very good at 2.17. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.86 and 0.86 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. Dividends were started in 1995. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	15.27%	13.07%	11.50%	1.57%
2008	10	15.85%	16.83%	15.15%	1.67%
2003	15	14.07%	15.00%	13.48%	1.52%
1998	20	15.78%	16.97%	15.25%	1.72%
1993	25	19.90%	19.22%	17.22%	2.00%
1989	29		22.54%	20.17%	2.37%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.12, 16.69 and 18.72. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.68, 12.78 and 13.88. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.01, 11.71 and 14.58. The current P/E Ratio is 17.13 based on a stock price of $53.11 and 2020 EPS estimate of $3.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I bought this stock in 2001 and 2004. The P/E Ratio for these purchases would have been 15.13 and 10.27. My total return for 2001 was 12.36% per year and for 2004 was 17.31% per year. Although part of the reason for the return for 2001 would be my sale time also, and I sold this stock in 2009. The current P/E Ratio of 17.13 is higher than at both of my purchases.

I get a Graham Price of $40.40. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.97, 1.06 and 1.17. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.31 based on a stock price of $53.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I bought this stock in 2001 and 2004. The P/GP Ratio for these purchases would have been 1.00 and 0.96. My total return for 2001 was 12.36% per year and for 2004 was 17.31% per year. The current P/GP Ratio of 1.31 is higher than at both of my purchases.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.11. The current P/B Ratio is 2.27 based on a Book Value of $5,955, Book Value per Share of $23.41 and a stock price of $53.11. The current ratio is 7.4% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I bought this stock in 2001 and 2004. The P/B Ratio for these purchases would have been 3.20 and 2.00. My total return for 2001 was 12.36% per year and for 2004 was 17.31% per year. The current P/B Ratio of 2.27 is higher than by 2001 purchase only.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.46%. The current dividend yield is 1.51% based on a stock price of $53.11 and dividends of $0.80. The current dividends are 3.2% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median dividend yield is 1.57%. The current yield at 1.51% is 4.3% above this. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and above the median.

I bought this stock in 2001 and 2004. The Dividend Yield for these purchases would have been 0.97% and 1.84%. My total return for 2001 was 12.36% per year and for 2004 was 17.31% per year. It is only my 2004 purchase where the yield is higher than the current yield.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.57. The current P/S Ratio is 0.78 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $17,222M, Revenue per Share of $67.69 and a stock price of $53.11. The current P/S Ratio is 37% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I bought this stock in 2001 and 2004. The P/S Ratios for these purchases would have been 0.37% and 0.28%. My total return for 2001 was 12.36% per year and for 2004 was 17.31% per year. The P/S Ratios used to be lower than the current ones. The current P/S Ratio is higher than both my stock purchases.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable to expensive. The test that shows that the stock price might be reasonable is the historical dividend yield tests. The P/B Ratio test is also showing the stock price as reasonable but above the median, but not by a great deal, only some 7.4%. Some of this testing is showing results better than 2001 purchase.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I am pleased with the results of my investment in this stock. I will not be buying more because this stock is over 5% of my portfolio at present. I will continue to hold this stock in my trading account. I know the yield is low, but the increases are quite nice and this helps in pushing up my income every year.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2), Hold (7) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month consensus stock price is $56.27. This implies a total return of 7.46% with 5.95% from capital gains and 1.51% from dividends.

Last year the consensus stock price was $47.23 which was close to the current stock price. However, this stock ended the year at $53.59 and an increase in capital gain of 13.20% rather than a capital loss of 0.23%.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They think Metro is doing a good job. Kay Ng on Motley Fool says this is a good defensive stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that institutions own 44% of this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that some insiders are selling. Mostly I see that they are dumping stock options. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the intrinsic value of this company is $59.33 or the company’s share price of $54.31 is about right. Sam Norman on Slater Sentinel says Desjardins reaffirmed a “hold” rating on shares of Metro.

Metro is one of Canada's largest grocery and drugstore operators in Quebec and Ontario, where it operates more than 500 food stores under several banners, including Metro, Metro Plus, Super C, Food Basics, Adonis, and Premiere Moisson, as well as more than 650 drugstores under Brunet, Metro Pharmacy, Drug Basics, and recently acquired Jean Coutu. Its web site is here Metro Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-ENF, OTC-ELEEF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bank of Montreal (TSX-BMO, NYSE-BMO) ... learn more on January 3, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Badger Daylighting.... learn more on January 3, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Element Fleet Management Corp

This is my last review of stocks for 2019. In 2020, I will start again mostly with the stocks that I own.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. The stock price is probably reasonable. It is hard to know where they will go on dividends and if this will become a dividend growth stock. However, it probably will. See my spreadsheet on Element Fleet Management Corp.

I do not own this stock of Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-EFN, OTC-ELEEF). I was looking for stocks to follow and I found this stock in 100 best Dividend Stocks Money Sense for 2018. It was also on Raymond James' top 19 Canadian stocks for 2019 list.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they are all over the place re dividends. The dividend cut was probably prompted by the earnings loss. They only have been giving out dividends since 2016 and they have increased and decreased them and given out a special dividend. Will this end up being a dividend growth stock? It is hard to tell at present.

Dividend yields have been low (under2%) to moderate (2 to 4% ranges). The current dividend is 1.64%. The 3 year median yield is 2.23%. It has been as high as 7.75% and as low as 0.76%. It is hard to know where dividends are going to go. They started dividends in 2016. In 2017 they were increased 150%, in 2018 they were increased by 20% and then in 2019 they were decreased by 40%. Does management know what they are doing?

The Dividend Payout Ratios are not what would like. The DPR for 2018 cannot be calculated because the company had an earnings loss. The 3 year DPR coverage for EPS is 348%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 15% with 5 year coverage at 29%. They cannot cover the dividend via Free Cash Flow. FCF coverage cannot be calculated because of negative FCF.

Debt Ratios are fine for a financial firm. This is considered to be a financial stock, so you want to know how well the assets are coverage the debt. For this company, the ratio for 2018 is 0.96. So, this is fine. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.13 and the Debt Ratio is 1.29 for 2018. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 is 5.40 and 4.19. These are fine for a financial firm.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 7 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	73.21%	-4.85%	-12.43%	7.58%
2011	7		14.71%	5.98%	8.72%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.11, 28.89 and 34.67. The 7 year corresponding ratios are 1.82, 208 and 2.34. The current P/E Ratio is 18.97 based on a stock price of $11.00 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.58. The current P/E ratio of 18.97 is probably high, so making this stock on the expensive side. I really cannot do any testing based on P/E Ratios of the past.

I get a Graham Price of $9.12. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.04, 1.30 and 1.35. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.21 based on a stock price of $11.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 7 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.17. The current P/B Ratio is 1.73 based on Book Value of $2,772M, Book Value per Share of $6.37 and a stock price of $11.00. The current ratio is 47% above the 7 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.23%. The current dividend yield is 1.64% based on dividends of $0.18 and a stock price of $11.00. The current yield us 37% below the historical (or 3 year) yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 7 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.74. The current P/S Ratio is 4.87 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $984M, Revenue per Share of $2.26 and a stock price of $11.00. The current ratio is 37% below the 7 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The best test is the P/S Ratio testing and this is showing the stock price as cheap. The P/B Ratio testing is worrisome as it is showing the stock price as expensive because the Book Value has been falling sine 2016. The P/GP Ratio test is probably where the price is.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price seems reasonable. However, this is a financial small cap and it is risky. It is also hard to say where they are going with dividends. It might be of interest in the future.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (5) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $13.78. This implies a total return of 26.91% with 25.27% from capital gains and 1.64% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There are various opinions, but it is risky. David Jagielski on Motley Fool says he is uncertain about its long term outlook. A writer on Simply Wall Street says you could view the recent improvements as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Phillip Gast on Modern Readers says there have been a couple of Buy ratings recently.

Element Fleet Management is a global fleet management company, Element Fleet Management provides management services and financing for commercial vehicle and equipment fleets. Its web site is here Element Fleet Management Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bird Construction Inc (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Metro Inc (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF) ... learn more on Thursday, January 2, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2019 – Vialoux.... learn more on Tuesday, December 31, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Bird Construction Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. The stock price is probably cheap. There is not much in the way of a margin of safety with the debt ratios. It was sensible for the company to cut dividends as they cannot currently afford them. I would like to see better debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Bird Construction Inc.

I do not own this stock of Bird Construction Inc (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF). This was listed as a top stock in ETF of iShares S&P TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index. I had not heard of it before, so I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that a great deal of the total return on this stock in the past came from dividends. With the dividends going down, this can no longer be the case. It I never a good sign when a stock cuts their dividends. On the other hand, this stock had cut dividends in the past.

The dividend yield on this stock has very greatly, but it has mostly been in the good range (5% over 5%), but has sometimes been in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend is 5.62% with 5, 10 and historical yields at 5.69%, 5.70% and 5.86%. The dividends had a lot of nice increases at different points in time, but in 2015 and 2016 they were flat and then in 2017 they were decreased by 48.7%. They were flat in 2018 and 2019.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are problematic at present and therefore a dividend cut. The company is acting sensibly. There is obviously a current problem with the coverage for the dividends and so they have cut them. The DPR for EPS for 2018 cannot be determined due to an earnings loss. The 5 year coverage is 140%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 136% with 5 year coverage at 36%. DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2018 is 64% with 5 year coverage at 131%.

Debt Ratios are low. I like to see a margin of safety in debt ratios. I like the Liquidity Ratio and the Debt Ratio to be at 1.50 or higher. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.10 which is a good ratio. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 1.15 with a 5 year median of 1.19. If you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio is 1.33 with a 5 year median of 1.32. The Debt Ratio is 1.26 with 5 year median of 1.28. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 is 4.79 and 3.79 with 5 year median at 4.54 and 3.54. These are a bit high.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-12.25%	-8.24%	-14.41%	6.16%
2008	10	-2.13%	9.04%	-0.87%	9.91%
2003	15	2.29%	27.62%	6.98%	20.64%
1998	20	7.67%	47.94%	16.46%	31.48%
1997	21		49.67%	18.28%	31.39%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.92, 19.37 and 23.83. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.01, 15.64 and 18.27. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.91, 9.98 and 11.30. The current P/E Ratio is 33.05 based on a stock price of $6.94 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Since we are near to the end of the year, I want to look at the P/E Ratio for 2020. It is 11.97 based on a stock price of $6.94 and 2020 EPS estimate of $0.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $3.91. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.24, 1.54 and 1.83. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.87 based on a stock price of $6.94. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Since we are near the end of the year, we should also look at the Graham Price for 2020. It is $6.16. The P/GP Ratio would be 1.13 based on a stock price of $6.94. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.94. The current P/B Ratio is 2.39 based on a Book Value of $124M, Book Value per Share of $2.91 and a stock price of $6.94. The current ratio is 19% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.86%. The current dividend yield is 5.62% based on dividends of $0.39 and a stock price of $6.94. The current yield is 4% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median dividend yield is 5.70%. The current dividend yield of 5.62% is 1.4% below this yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.40. The current P/S Ratio is 0.22 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $1,358M, Revenue per Share of $31.94 and a stock price of $6.94. The current ratio is 46% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Since this is near the end of the year, we should probably also look at the estimated revenue and P/S Ratio for 2020. The P/S Ratio for 2020 is 0.20 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $1,484M, Revenue per Share of $34.90 and a stock price of $6.94. This P/S Ratio is 50% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The best test is the P/S Ratio test. It is showing the stock a relatively cheap. I am surprised that the dividend yield test is showing as cheap considering the fact the dividends have been cut lately. The P/B Ratio test is a good one. It is showing the stock as almost cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Long term holders of this stock if bought at a reasonable price, could probably do well in this stock. However, it will be volatile, so you would have to be able to put up with this volatility. The current price is cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $8.25. This implies a total return of 24.30% with 18.88% from capital gains and 5.6% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There are few analysts following this stock. The last one said that construction is a tough business. Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool thought it was a good buy in 2017, but the stock is down around 30% since then.. A writer on Simply Wall Street say the P/E Ratio for this stock is higher than its peers, so it is probably relatively expensive. A writer on Simply Wall Street does not think that this is a good dividend stock.. Amanda Harley on Slater Sentinel says Raymond James gives this stock a price target of $9.00. Click somewhere outside the central message box on the page to see the report.

Bird Construction Inc, through its subsidiaries, operates as a contractor in construction market. It also provides pre-construction services, building information modeling and involves in public-private partnership projects. The company focuses on commercial, institutional, retail, tenant, residential, industrial, mining, water, wastewater, energy, and civil sectors. It operates its business in Canada. Its web site is here Bird Construction Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Sienna Senior Living Inc (TSX-SIA, OTC- LWSCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-ENF, OTC-ELEEF) ... learn more on December 30, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Sienna Senior Living Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Health Care. Stock price is probably reasonable to expensive. See my spreadsheet on Sienna Senior Living Inc.

I do not own this stock of Sienna Senior Living Inc (TSX-SIA, OTC- LWSCF). When I looked in Stock Chase about Chartwell, Greg Newman; Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Management said he liked Sienna Senior Living better, so I investigated it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they do not have a history of raising dividends. The dividends have been mostly flat until 2018. In both 2018 and 2019 dividends were increased by 2%.

The current dividend yield is 5.12%. The 5 year and 9 year median dividend yields are 5.55% and 6.98%. The stock only went public in 2010. There was no growth in dividends until 2018 and then another increase in 2019. Both increases were 2%. In the first year of 2010, there were only 10 dividend payments.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are too high in some instances. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 604% with 5 year coverage at 715%. There has been two many years of EPS losses. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 49% with 5 year coverage at 55%. These are too high and I prefer them at 40% or lower. The DPR for FCF for 2018 is 96% with 5 year coverage at 88%. I prefer DPR for FCF to be 60% or less.

The DPR for Funds from Operation (FFO) for 2018 is 65% with 5 year coverage at 64%. The DPR for Funds from Adjusted Funds from Operation (AFFO) for 2018 is 69% with 5 year coverage also at 69%. These payout Ratios are acceptable.

I believe that the Debt Ratios are a problem. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.87, so it is fine. The Liquidity Ratio, no matter what you do, does not rise to even 1.00. They cannot cover their short term liabilities. If you compare current liabilities to the company’s asset, the ratio is quite high at 8.04. However, I do not like situations where the current liabilities cannot be covered by current assets.

The Debt Ratio at 1.48 is a bit low as I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 3.09 and 2.09. These are also a bit too high.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 9 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.13%	13.65%	6.63%	7.02%
2009	9	2.40%	13.14%	5.68%	7.46%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 54.07, 60.09 and 66.11. The 9 year corresponding ratios are negative as are the historical ratios. That is because negative earnings from 2010 to 2014 inclusive. The current P/E Ratio is 182.90 based on a stock price of $18.29 and latest 12 month EPS of $0.10.

This is really sort of a REIT, so the P/FFO ratios can be used. The 5 year P/FFO Ratios are 11.20, 12.45 and 13.70. The corresponding 8 year ratios are 11.20, 12.35 and 13.05. The current P/FFO Ratio is 13.35 based on a stock price of $18.29 and 2019 FFO estimate of $1.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Since it is close to the end of the year, I have also looked at the P/FFO Ratio for 2020. For 2020, the P/FFO Ratio is 12.88 based on 2020 FFO estimate of $1.42 and a stock price of $18.29. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

This is really sort of a REIT, so I also looked at the P/AFFO ratios. The 5 year P/AFFO Ratios are 10.24, 11.70 and 12.66. The corresponding 8 year ratios are 9.37, 10.68 and 11.98. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 12.61 based on a stock price of $18.29 and 2019 AFFO estimate of $1.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Since it is close to the end of the year, I have also looked at the P/AFFO Ratio for 2020. For 2020, the P/AFFO Ratio is 12.44 based on 2020 AFFO estimate of $1.47 and a stock price of $18.29. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $5.39. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.61, 2.87 and 3.12. The current P/GP Ratio is 4.27 based on a stock price of $18.29. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

If we used a Graham Price based on FFO, we get a Graham Price of $16.51. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.94, 1.03 and 1.11. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.15 based on a stock price of $18.29. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.97. The current P/B Ratio is 2.22 based on a Book Value of $539M, Book Value per Share of $8.14 and a stock price of $18.29. The current P/B Ratio is some 14% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.98%. The current dividend yield is 5.12% based on dividends of $0.92 and a stock price of $18.29. The current yield is 27% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.20. The current ratio is 1.82 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $669M, Revenue per Share of $10.09 and a stock price of $18.29. The current ratio is 52% above the 9 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable to expensive. Here again, I like the P/S Ratio test and it is showing the stock price as relatively expensive. However, the P/B Ratio test is showing the stock price as relatively reasonable but above the median. This is a fair test. If we use the FFO for 2020 we get the same results.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I took a look at this stock because I wanted to buy a Canadian stock in the Health Care sector. I decided again the stock because of the debt ratios. The stock price is on the high, if not expensive side. I might make another decision in the future if it got better debt ratios and continued to raise dividends.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (2) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $19.98. This implies a total return of 15.87% with 8.75% from capital gains and 5.12% from dividends based on a stock price of $18.29.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There are quite mixed views, but most like this stock. Jason Phillips on Motley Fool says that the company is in a good position to take advance of the growing senior population and in the meantime pays a high dividend. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks that this company which has institutional ownership of 18% give this stock some credibility as an investment. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the ROE at 1.4% is a lot lower than others in the sector which have a ROE average of 8.7%. Matthew Tipps on Slater Sentinel says this company has an average rating of Hold from four analysts.

There is an article about a suit against this company on CTV News. There is also an article on CTV News saying that the Class Action has been discontinued.

Sienna Senior Living Inc is one of the largest owners of seniors' housing, the largest licensed long-term care operator in Ontario, and a provider of services across the full continuum of care. The firm operates solely within Canada. Its web site is here Sienna Senior Living Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX- CSH.UN, OTC- CWSRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bird Construction Inc (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF) ... learn more on Friday, December 27, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Chartwell Retirement Residences

I have been working on the spreadsheet for Chartwell Retirement Residences and Sienna Senior Living Inc which are two Canadian Health Care stocks. I decided to publish on them today.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Healthcare. The stock price is probably reasonable to expensive. A company that has lowered the dividends as much as raised them is not a good dividend stock to buy. I do not like their debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Chartwell Retirement Residences.

I do not own this stock of Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX-CSH.UN, OTC-CWSRF). I saw this stock on a dividend investing blog and looked it up on Stock Chase.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company does not have a great track record on paying dividends. Dividends have been decreased as much as increased and they have been flat most years. Interestingly, the tax treatment of the dividends for distributions are currently very good. 2018 was the first year when part of the distributions was taxable and only 3% of the distributions were.

The current dividend yield is in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges), but for most of this stock’s life the dividend yield was much higher. The current dividend yield is 4.22%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 3.99%, 4.20% and 6.78%. From when dividends were started in 2004, dividend were only decreased. Dividend increases started in 2015 at very low rates. The most recent increase was in 2019 and it was for 2%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine for FFO and AFFO. This company is sort of a REIT, but not really and it is classified as Health Care. Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) are provided. The DPR for FFO for 2018 is 65% with the 5 year coverage is 64%. The DPR for AFFO for 2018 is 69% with 5 year coverage at 70%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios in other calculations are not so fine. The DPR for CFPS is high and for FCF is over 100%. They have never come close to covering their dividends with earnings. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 47% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for FCF for 2018 is 254% with 5 year coverage at 194%.

I would like to see better Debt Ratios. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.69 and this one is fine. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 0.18. The Liquidity Ratio just gets over 100% at 105% if you add back in cash flow after distributions and the current portion of the long term debt. There is no safety margin. The Debt Ratio is low but fine at 1.39 with a 5 year median at 1.39 also. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 3.56 and 2.56 with 5 year median ratios at 3.56 and 2.56 also. These are a little high.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	1.61%	12.18%	7.10%	5.07%
2008	10	-3.34%	17.79%	10.06%	7.73%
2003	15	-4.24%	6.75%	0.73%	6.02%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 156.36, 174.38 and 192.40. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 32.25, 35.77 and 39.29. The historical ratios are all negative. There is nothing I can do with this.

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 13.28, 15.38 and 17.47. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.98, 13.42 and 15.13. The current P/FFO Ratio is 15.37 based on 2019 FFO estimate of $0.92 and a stock price of $14.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Since this is near the end of the year, we should look at the P/FFO Ratio for 2020. The P/FFO ratio for 2020 is 14.73 based on 2020 AFFO estimate of $0.96 and a stock price of $14.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 14.35, 16.46 and 18.87. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.26, 14.86 and 16.45. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 16.64 based on 2019 AFFO estimate of $0.85. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Since this is near the end of the year, we should look at the P/AFFO Ratio for 2020. The P/AFFO ratio for 2020 is 15.71 based on 2020 AFFO estimate of $0.90 and a stock price of $14.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $2.88. The 6 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 4.73, 5.25 and 5.77. I do not have a good history for the Graham Price because of all the years of earnings losses. The current P/GP Ratio is 4.90 based on a stock price of $14.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

If I do the Graham Price based on FFO, I get 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.25, 1.40 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.53 based on a stock price of $14.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.04. The current P/B Ratio is 3.44 based on a Book Value of $873M, Book Value per Share of $4.11 and a stock price of $14.14. The current ratio is 13% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.76%. The current dividend yield is 4.22% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $14.14. The current yield is 38% lower than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.20. With a current dividend yield of 4.22%, the 10 year median yield is 19% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.08. The current P/S Ratio is 3.28 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $917M, Revenue per Share of $4.31 and a stock price of $14.14. The current ratio is 58% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Since analysts estimate for Revenue in 2020 is lower than for 2019, we cannot get a better ratio for P/S using 2020 estimates.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable to expensive. The best test is the P/S Ratio testing. A problem with the dividend yield testing is that the dividends have mostly been declining. The P/B Ratio testing is showing the stock price is reasonable but above the median as is the P/AFFO Ratio and the P/FFO Ratio test and these for 2020 is showing the stock price above the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Because people are talking about buy stock that cater to seniors, I took a look at both this company and Sienna Senior Living. I was looking for stocks to buy. However, I decided not to invest in either because I did not like their debt ratios. I do not think that the current price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is 15.89. This implies a total return 16.60% with 12.38% from capital gains and 4.22% from dividends based on a current stock price of $14.14.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They think that is currently a Buy. Cindy Dye on Motley Fool thinks this company is well suited to take advantage of the coming boom of aging seniors . A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this company is too highly leveraged. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this company is overvalued.

Chartwell Retirement Residences is an unincorporated open-ended trust. The company is engaged in ownership, operation and management of retirement and long-term care communities in Canada. It operates its retirement and long-term care facilities separately. Its web site is here Chartwell Retirement Residences.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Richards Packaging Income Fund (TSX-RPI.UN, OTC-RPKIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will Sienna Senior Living Inc (TSX-SIA, OTC- LWSCF) ... learn more today.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Richards Packaging Income Fund

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is probably expensive. I do not think that yields will go as high as in the past, but they are at the lowest level ever now. It is not a well followed stock as it appears that only one analyst is following it. See my spreadsheet on Richards Packaging Income Fund.

I do not own this stock of Richards Packaging Income Fund (TSX-RPI.UN, OTC-RPKIF). A member of one of my investment club suggested this stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they have no information that I can find on their site that shows the Board of Trustee Members and Chief Officers of the company. I believe public companies should make this information easy to find. I could not even google this information, but finally found what I was looking for in the latest Notice of Annual Meeting of Unitholders and Management Information Circular.

The distributions are either not taxable or return of capital, so not taxable. I do not know why. I would like to know why.

Dividend yields used to very high, but have lately been in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend 2.79%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 5.13%, 6.63% and 8.20%. The yield hit a high of almost 20% in 2008. Since then, the yield has steadily declined.

Dividends have grown nicely lately because of 3 increases in the last 5 years. The one in 2018 was for 21.7%. There have been no increases since. This company has never increased the dividends on any regular basis.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 60% with 5 year coverage of 89%. The DPR for CFPS is 31% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2018 is 53% with 5 year coverage at 58%. All the DPRs have gone up and own but have basically been declining for some time.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.07. The current one is 0.04. This ratio has been steadily declining since hitting a peak of 1.04 in 2008. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 1.48 is low. The 5 year median is 1.51. If you add in cash flow after dividend is hits just 1.52. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 2.05 with a current one at 2.12 and 5 year median at 1.95. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 1.95 and 0.95 with 5 year medians at 2.05 and 1.05.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 14 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	10.93%	33.69%	27.18%	6.52%
2008	10	1.64%	26.30%	19.49%	6.81%
2009	14	5.07%	14.45%	8.69%	5.76%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.10, $16.71 and 19.77. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 13.81, 16.08 and 18.19. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.64, 15.70 and 18.00. The current P/E Ratio is 18.36 based on 2019 EPS estimate of $2.58 and a stock price of $47.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Because it is near the end of the year, we should also look at the P/E Ratio for 2020. The P/E Ratio of 15.59 based on a stock price of $47.38 and 2020 EPS estimate of $3.04. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $26.09. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.92, 1.08 and 1.20. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.82 based on a stock price of $47.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Because it is near the end of the year, lets look at the Graham Price of 2020 which is 28.32. The P/GP Ratio is 1.67 based on a stock price of $47.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.43. The current P/B Ratio is 4.04 based on a Book Value of $128M, Book Value per Share of $11.72 and a stock price of $47.38. The current P/B Ratio is 182% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.20. The current dividend yield is 2.79% based on dividends of $1.32 and a stock price of $47.38. The current yield is 66% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.63%. The current dividend yield at 2.79% is some 58% below the 10 year median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.56. The current P/S Ratio is 1.32 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $339M, and a stock price of $47.38. The current ratio is 172% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. On a whole range of tests, this stock is coming up relatively expensive. I must admit that the P/E Ratios are pretty consistent and on one test the stock price is showing as relatively reasonable and below the median. However, I would not accept this test above all others.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Without knowing why the distributions are non-taxable, it is hard to know if this will change or not in the future. Increases in distribution occur erratically so a unit holder would not know when an increase will take place. Distributions have been cut in the past as well as increased. This is the reason for the very low increases over the past 10 and 14 years. Shareholders have done well, but there is also the saying that you should only invest in what you understand.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one Strong Buy (1), recommendation. The 12 month stock price is $50.00. This implies a total return of $8.32% with 5.53% from capital gains and 2.79% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They like it, but one talks about it being illiquid sometimes. Mat Litalien, on Motley Fool thinks the company has plenty of room to raise the distributions. An writer on Simply Wall Street says the return on capital employed (ROCE) is good for this company. David Cockfield on BNN talks about this company. Ryan Modesto, Chief Executive Officer, 5I Research on BNN talks about this company.

Richards Packaging Income Fund is a Canada-based company involved in packaging distribution businesses throughout North America. The company principally distributes plastic and glass containers and associated closures. The business of the group is primarily spread across the market of Canada and United States of which the United States accounts the larger source of revenue. Its web site is here Richards Packaging Income Fund.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG, NYSE-MGA) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX- CSH.UN, OTC- CWSRF) ... learn more on Thursday, December 26, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2019 – Innovation and Disruption.... learn more on Tuesday, December 24, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.