Magna International Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield and growth are good. Debt ratios are ok. Shareholders have done well in the past. See my spreadsheet on Magna International Inc.

I do not own this stock of Magna International Inc (TSX-MG, NYSE-MGA) but I used to. I held this company between September 2002 and September 2006 and earned 5% return per year including dividends. When I bought this stock in 2002, I felt I was paying a good price for it. There were some rumors that it might be bought out in 2006, so I sold.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the EPS came in a bit lower than expected. The expected was $6.85 and the EPS was $6.61. Last year the EPS for 2019 and 2020 were $7.14 and $8.30. However, the current estimates are a lot lower at $4.97 and $6.73.

Dividends have been paid in US$ since 1999. The current dividend yield is in the moderate arrange (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.60%. The 5, 10 and historical yields are low (below 2%) to moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.08%, 1.99% and 1.84% respectively. These are in US$. The dividend growth is in the moderate (8% to 14% ranges) to good (15% and above). The last dividend increase was for 10.6%. It is different in Canada and US due to the changes in the exchange rate.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2018 in US$ is 20% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for CFPS in 2018 in US$ is 11% with 5 year coverage also at 11%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow in 2018 in CDN$ is 22% with 5 year coverage at 27%. I am getting my FCF values from Wall Street Journal which gives them CDN$.

Debt Ratios are fine except for the Liquidity Ratios which are a bit low. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.21 with a current one at 0.17. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 1.15 with 5 year median at 1.26. If you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio becomes 1.47 with a 5 year median at 1.58. The ratios are a bit low and I prefer ratios to be at 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.75 with 5 year median at 1.86. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 2.42 and 1.38. The 5 year medians at 1.98 and 0.98.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2018 CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	21.93%	9.81%	7.31%	2.50%
2008	10	16.66%	24.08%	21.03%	3.05%
2003	15	9.86%	7.53%	6.16%	1.37%
1998	20	11.34%	6.43%	5.02%	1.41%
1993	25	12.73%	8.08%	6.53%	1.55%
1991	27	11.22%	14.72%	11.66%	3.06%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2018 US$.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	15.58%	4.41%	2.07%	2.34%
2008	10	15.41%	23.21%	19.77%	3.44%
2003	15	9.46%	7.40%	5.62%	1.78%
1998	20	11.98%	6.75%	5.04%	1.71%
1993	25	12.60%	8.02%	6.28%	1.74%
1988	27	16.38%	6.94%	5.46%	1.48%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.13, 8.55, and 9.96. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.86, 9.04 and 10.45. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.13, 11.83 and 12.56. The current P/E Ratio 7.87 based on a stock price of $73.93 and 2019 EPS Estimate of $9.40 ($7.14 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$.

Since we are close to 2020, it might be a good idea to look at the P/E Ratio for 2020. The 2020 P/E Ratio is 6.77 based on a stock price of $73.93 and 2020 EPS estimate of $10.92 ($8.30 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $96.77. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.61, 0.79 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76 based on a stock price of $73.93. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.54. The current P/B Ratio is 1.67 based on a stock price of $56.16, Book Value of $11,018M, Book Value per Share of $33.66. The current ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.86%. The current dividend yield is 2.60% based on $1.46 and a stock price of $56.16. The current yield is 40% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

The 10 year median dividend yield is 2.01%. With the current dividend yield at 2.60%, the current dividend yield is 30% above the 10 year median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.42. The current P/S Ratio is 0.47 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $39,287M, Revenue per Share of 120.02 and a stock price of $56.16. The current ratio is 11% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The P/S Ratio testing is an important one. The estimate is a bit lower than revenue for 2018 but 12 month revenue to date is lower than the 2018 revenue also. So lower revenue estimate seems reasonable. Dividends and EPS are rising faster than revenue. This is not sustainable on a long term basis. The dividend yield test shows the stock price at cheap, but the P/B Ratio shows it reasonable.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I would think that the current stock price is reasonable. This company has been making profits and has produced solid returns for shareholders in the past and will probably continue to do so.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (3), Hold (11) and Sell (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The stock price consensus is $80.25 (60.98 US$). This implies a total return of 11.15% with 8.55% from capital gains and 2.60% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Some see it as a buy. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool talks how this stock suffered in the last market crash but it did well once it took off again. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about this stock price growing faster than the EPS. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks investors in this stock should keep an eye on their debt levels. Anthony Bellafiore on Modern Readers talk about Royal Bank starting coverage of this stock.

Magna International automotive supplier's product groups include exteriors, interiors, seating, roof systems, body and chassis, powertrain, vision and electronic systems, closure systems, electric vehicle systems, tooling and engineering, and contracted vehicle assembly. Roughly half of Magna's revenue comes from North America while Europe accounts for approximately 40%. Its web site is here Magna International Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Methanex Corp (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richards Packaging Income Fund (TSX-RPI.UN, OTC-RPKIF) ... learn more on Monday, December 23, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Methanex Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth. The stock has good dividend growth with low DPR. Stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. It is a cyclical stock, so it is rather high in risk. See my spreadsheet on Methanex Corp.

I do not own this stock of Methanex Corp (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH). I started a spreadsheet in November 2010 as I had read some good reports on the stock at that time. It is also got a solid “C” grade in a 2009 Money Sense review of stocks. Money Sense rated the top 100 Canadian Dividend Paying stocks. Money Sense was looking for stocks that provided generous income at reasonable prices.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that revenue estimate for 2019 is lower than for last year. The estimates for 2019 and 2020 were $3,737M and $3,811M US$ and they are now $2,814M and $2,956M US$. There is a matched decline for the last 12 months to the end of September 2019 compared to the last 12 months to the end of December 2018 where revenue has a 22% decline to $3,062 from $3,932M US$.

There is the same decline in EPS. Last year the estimates for 2019 and 2020 were $7.52 and $7.11 for EPS US$. Now the 2019 and 2020 EPS estimates are $1.25 and $1.57 US$. There is a matched decline for the last 12 months to the end of September 2019 compared to the last 12 months to the end of December 2018 where EPS has a 60% decline to $2.80 from $6.92 US$.

The dividends are paid in US$. The dividend yields are in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend yield is 3.69%, with 5, 10 and historical yields at 2.31%, 2.40% and 2.40%. The dividends are growth currently at a moderate rate (8% to 14% ranges) in US$. Some of the dividend increases are better in CDN$. See charts below. The last increase was in 2019 and it was for 9.1%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 14% with 5 year coverage at 33%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 9% with 5 year coverage at 14%. These are in US$. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2018 is 17% with 5 year coverage at 40.6%. FCF is in CDN$.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.29 with 5 year median at 0.36. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 1.20 with 5 year median at 1.69. If you add in cash flow after dividends the rate becomes 2.03 with 5 year coverage at 2.12. The Debt Ratio is 1.65 with 5 year median at 1.66. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 3.05 and 1.85 for 2018. The 5 year median ratios are better at 2.64 and 1.50.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2018 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	16.62%	3.17%	0.89%	2.28%
2008	10	9.29%	20.64%	16.97%	3.68%
2003	15	13.10%	13.34%	10.58%	2.76%
1998	20	16.43%	13.50%	11.10%	2.40%
1995	23		10.18%	8.53%	1.66%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2018 in US$.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	10.95%	-1.99%	-4.05%	2.07%
2008	10	8.11%	19.81%	15.66%	4.15%
2003	15	12.69%	13.37%	10.19%	3.18%
1998	20	17.50%	14.89%	11.93%	2.96%
1993	25		10.45%	8.54%	1.91%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.95, 12.37 and 15.19. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.91, 13.25 and 16.09. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.68, 10.40 and 14.94. The current P/E Ratio is 31.03 based on a stock price of $51.14 and 2019 EPS estimate of $1.65 (1.25 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$.

Because it is near the end of the year, we should also check with P/E Ratio for 2020. This P/E Ratio is 24.71 based on a stock price of $51.14 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.07 ($1.57 US$). An improvement, but still it shows by this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Problem is the drop in EPS for 2019 and later years. This is in CDN$.

Twice this stock has had two years of losses resulting in long term capital gains. For example, the Capital gains portion of the total return for the past 10 years is 16.97% per year. 10 years ago, the 11th year and 10th year capital losses were at 14% and 50%. We just had two years of capital losses of 14% and 22%, so perhaps we are due for another rise in stock prices?

Yr	Capital Gain	1st Yr Gain	2nd Yr Gain	1st Yr Loss	2nd Yr Loss
Now				14%	22%
5	0.89%	36%	98%
10	16.97%			14%	50%
15	10.58%	51%	9%
20	11.10%			9%	30%
25	8.53%

I get a Graham Price of $49.95. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.22, 1.54 and 1.88. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price of $51.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.18. The current P/B Ratio is 2.12 based on Book Value of $1834M, Book Value per Share of $24.07 and a stock price of $51.14. The current ratio is some 3% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This is in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.40%. The current dividend yield is 3.69% based on dividends of $1.44 and a stock price of $31.09. The current yield is 54% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$. The 10 year median dividend yield is also 2.40%. So a test using the 10 year median dividend yield will give you the same results.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.32. The current P/S Ratio is 1.06 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $2,814M, Revenue per Share of $36.93 and a stock price of $39.01. The current ratio is 20.1% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. A lot of the testing is coming up with a relatively cheap stock price except for P/B Ratio test which is showing the stock price is reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test is showing cheap, but just into the cheap region.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? First, the stock price is reasonable. This stock is quite volatile so there is risk here. Risk level is rated High. However, this is the second year for a stock price decline for this stock, so the if you like this stock I think now is a good time to buy.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4), Hold (6), Underperform (1) and Sell (2). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $41.10 US$ or $54.18 CDN$. This implies a total return of 9.66% with 5.95% from capital gains and 3.71% from dividends. I must say that the analyst’s recommendations are all over the place. It is cyclical and probably the time to buy is now if you want to own this stock.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. It is cyclical and some think now is the time to buy. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool expects sales to pick up and likes the current dividend yield. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes that the dividend is covered and growing. Lee McLain Broch Herald talks about recent analysts ratings. Jean Kramer on Finance Recorder talks about short interest in this stock.

Methanex Corp manufactures and sells methanol. Methanex's customers use methanol as a feedstock to produce end products including adhesives, foams, solvents, and windshield washer fluids. The firm also sells its products to the oil refining industry. Europe generates the most revenue of any geographical segment. Its web site is here Methanex Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Stantec Inc (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG, NYSE-MGA) ... learn more on Wednesday, December 20, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2019 – Rob Carrick.... learn more on Thursday, December 19, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Stantec Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price seems reasonable at present. Both the debt ratios and Dividend Payout Ratios are good. It has not done well for shareholders in total return lately and latest dividend increase has moved lower. See my spreadsheet on Stantec Inc .

I do not own this stock of Stantec Inc (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN), but I used to. I bought this stock for capital gains in April 2008. I sold in September 2011. I wanted to get rid of non-core stocks and this stock had not produced capital gains. I had a capital loss of 22.6%.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that there was a steep dive in stock price in July. It would seem to be because of the company missing the second quarter EPS estimates. The third quarter was good and price revived. They have sold off the construction side of the business.

They started to pay dividends in 2012. They have been rising their dividends every year since. The dividend yield is low (under 2%) with a current yield of 1.59% and 5 year and historical yields both at 1.37%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges). See the chart below. The last dividend increase was lower at 5.5% in 2019.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. Sometimes the DPR can be high because of bad year. It is the 5 year coverage that is really important. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 125% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for 2019 is expected to b 33%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 3% with 5 year coverage at 2%. The DPR for FCF for 2018 is 128% with 5 year coverage at 29%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.26 with a current one at 0.24. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 1.90 with 5 year median at 1.51 and a current one at 1.77. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.91 with a current one at 1.69 and a 5 year median at 1.96. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2018 is 2.10 and 1.10. The current ratios are 2.45 and 1.45 and the 5 year median ratios are 2.05 and 1.05.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

The to date value are similar except for the past 5 years where the return is a bit better at a total return of 4.19% and capital gains at 2.75%.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	10.24%	-0.50%	-1.91%	1.40%
2008	10	9.78%	8.30%	7.09%	1.21%
2003	15		12.86%	11.92%	0.94%
1998	20		17.90%	17.06%	0.84%
1994	24		16.18%	15.52%	0.66%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.13, 26.41 and 29.68. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.59, 20.34 and 24.12. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.46, 16.38 and 20.30. The current P/E Ratio is 20.90 based on a stock price of $36.57 and 2019 EPS $1.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

It is close to the end of the year, so I am also looked at 2020. The P/E Ratio for 2020 is 17.09 based on a stock price of $36.57 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $25.84. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 10 year low, median, and high median P/GP Ratios are 1.17, 1.47 and 1.74. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $36.57. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.05. The current P/B Ratio is 2.16 based on a stock price of $36.57, Book Value of $1,888M and Book Value per Share of $16.96. The current ratio is 5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.37%. The current dividend yield is 1.59% based on dividends of $0.58 and a stock price of $36.57. The current dividend is some 16% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.11. The current P/S Ratio is 1.10 based on a stock price of $36.57, Revenue estimate for 2019 of $3,701M, Revenue per Share of $33.25. The current ratio is 1% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. My favourite tests of P/S Ratio and dividend yield is showing this. The P/B Ratio test, which has nothing wrong with it, is showing the stock price as reasonable and above the median by 5%.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price is currently reasonable. I noticed that some analysts said that they prefer WSP Global Inc (TSX-WSP, OTC-WSPOF). This is a stock that I have and I have done well with it. This seems like a decent stock, but sometimes investors can be hard stocks that miss estimates.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (7) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $39.50. This implies a total return of $9.60% with 8.01% from capital gains and .59% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Most do not like this company. Brian Pacampara, on Motley Fool likes this company’s leadership position in the design space fiscal discipline, and proven track record. Stantec announces via Reuters their three year strategic plan. John Adams on Modern Readers talk about Desjardins lowing EPS estimate for 2019. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider trading. Note Theresa Jang is a newly appointed CFO.

Stantec Inc is a global engineering and construction firm. The company provides its services under fee-for-service agreements with clients. Stantec derives the substantial majority of its sales from the United States and Canada, and the company works in both the public and private sectors. Its web site is here Stantec Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV, NASDAQ-FSV) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Methanex Corp (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH) ... learn more on Wednesday, December 18, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2019 – Kevin Bidner.... learn more on Tuesday, December 17, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

FirstService Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Real Estate. Stock price is probably expensive. There is some insider buying and the last buy by a director was at $102.08 US$. A positive is the 2019 dividend increase of 11.1%. A negative is the yield below 1%. See my spreadsheet on FirstService Corp.

I do not own this stock of FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV, NASDAQ-FSV), but I used to. I bought FirstService Corp in 2002 as it looked like a good solid company that knows how to make money. By 2010 the company was underperforming so I sold the stock and kept the preferred shares until the end of the year before selling them too. Preferred shares are not by favorite why of getting dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed even though the company reports in US$, analysts insist and site insist on doing estimates in CDN$. However, this year I had a hard time getting any estimates at all. Last year I at least got estimates for the following 3 years.

They started to pay dividends 5 years ago. The dividends are paid in US$. This company also reports in US$. The dividend yield is in the low category (under 2%). The current dividend yield is 0.65%. The 5 year median dividend is 1.00%. The 5 year growth rate is low at 5.69%, however this is because they did not increase the dividends at first. However, the last 3 increases have been over 10% with the latest dividend increase in 2019 at 11.1%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 29% with 5 year coverage at 42%. The CPR for CFPS for 2018 is 13% with 5 year coverage at 16%. The DPR for FCF for 2018 is 32% with 5 yar coverage at 19%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.13. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 1.83 with 5 year median at 1.66. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.63 with 5 year median at 1.62. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 2.60 and 1.60 with 5 year median at 3.04 and 2.04.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2018 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	9.36%	33.85%	32.22%	1.63%
2008	10		28.79%	27.73%	1.05%
2003	15		18.57%	18.07%	0.50%
1998	20		16.12%	15.78%	0.35%
1995	23		21.55%	21.19%	0.36%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2018 in US$.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	5.69%	27.04%	25.71%	1.33%
2008	10		27.02%	26.24%	0.78%
2003	15		18.16%	17.76%	0.40%
1998	20		16.67%	16.38%	0.29%
1995	23		21.48%	21.19%	0.29%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 32.48, 42.62 and 50.41. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 31.11, 39.56 and 46.76. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.99, 18.67 and 23.23. The current P/E Ratio is 29.23 based on a stock price of $119.93 and 2019 EPS estimate of $4.10 ($3.10 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$.

The P/E Ratio for 2020 is 26.97 based on a stock price of $119.93 and 2020 EPS estimate of $4.45 ($3.36 US$). This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This is in CDN$. All the P/E Ratio is extremely high with the exception of the historical ratios.

The high capital gains for the past 5 and 10 years started with negative P/E Ratios. The 15, 20 and 23 year capital gains started from P/E Ratios of 19.62, 21.24 and 10.35. These are closer in line with the historical median P/E Ratios.

I get a Graham Price of $26.75. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.57, 3.22 and 4.06. The current P/GP ratio is 4.48 based on a stock price of $119.93. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 8.88. The current P/B Ratio is 15.70 based on a Book Value of $230M, Book Value per Share of $6.57 and a stock price of $91.94. The current ratio is 77% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.00%. The current yield is 0.65% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $91.94. The current ratio is 35% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$. Note that this is also the 5 year median dividend yield. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.59. The current P/S Ratio is 1.50 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $2,400M, Revenue per Share of $61.16 and a stock price of $91.94. The current ratio is 157% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. Some of the 10 year ratios are extremely high. This is true of the P/E Ratios, P/GP Ratios, and the P/B Ratios. Most of this testing is still showing the current stock price is relatively expensive. The best test is probably the P/S Ratio test, but there is nothing wrong with the P/B Ratio test or the P/GP Ratio test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that the current price is probably expensive. It is a good company, but I do not buy companies when their dividend yields are below 1%. Five years ago, the yields were above 1%. A positive is the nice dividend increases lately with the one for 2019 at 11.1%. Shareholders have done well with capital gains but these gains have started from P/E Ratios that were negative or much lower than for the median P/E Ratios of the 5 and 10 year durations.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Hold (5) recommendations. The 12 month stock price is $103.00 US$ (or $136.22 CDN$). This implies a total return of 12.68% with 12.03% from capital gains and 0.65% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase . They like the company and say it is growing organically as well as by acquisition. Will Ashworth on Motley Fool talks about the company doing away with its dual-class structure. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks that the company is overpriced. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the stock’s current price reflects it optimistic future. Steph Klass on Mitchell Messenger talks about recent analysts recommendations.

FirstService Corp operates in two business divisions: FirstService Residential and FirstService Brands. FirstService Residential has service contracts to manage thousands of residential communities. FirstService Brands provides property services to residential and commercial customers. The company earns the majority of its revenue in the United States, with the remaining revenue generated in Canada. Its web site is here FirstService Corp .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX-KEG.UN, OTC-KRIUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Stantec Inc (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN) ... learn more on Monday, December 16, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Keg Royalties Income Fund

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Their Dividend Payout Ratios are too high no matter which one you look at. I wonder about the ability of Keg Restaurant Limited (KRL) to pay the royalties. See my spreadsheet on Keg Royalties Income Fund .

I do not own this stock of Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX-KEG.UN, OTC-KRIUF). This was a stock suggested by one of my readers. I like dinning at The Keg. I find the food very good. At stock forums I viewed, investors liked this company as it is guaranteed 4% of the sales at Keg restaurants as income to the fund. So, I decided to take a look at it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that it is hard to get estimates for this stock because it seems only 1 analyst, that I can find, even follows this stock. Even though this analyst expects EPS to be $1.17 in 2019 compared to 2018 when it was $1.16, the 12 month EPS to the end of the third quarter is only $1.02 compared to last year $1.16.

The thing I still do not like about this fund is that from the financial statements you get no sense on how able KRL is to pay the royalties due the fund. It is like a business with one customer. The effect on a business if something happens to one of their customers depends on how many customers they have. It is very different if the company has 1, 10, 100, 10,000 etc. customers. For this fund 99% of their assets depend on KRL as well as all their income. Also, the Intangible/Market Cap Ratio is 0.97 in 2019. So almost all their assets are intangible.

The fund has a mixed record when looking at dividend growth. Dividends have gone up, down and remained flat in different years. In 2019 the dividends did not increase. The dividend yield is in the good range (above 5%). The current dividend yield is 7.14%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 5.57%, 5.74% and 7.72%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 100%. The 5 year coverage is 133%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 53% with the 5 year coverage also at 53%. The DPR for FCF for 2018 is 99% with 5 year coverage at 97%. They say that they are distributing 100.8% of the distributable cash. This is probably why no increases in distributions for 2019.

Debt Ratios appear fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.75. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.85 with 5 year median also at 1.85. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.69 with 5 year median at 1.64. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 2.46 and 1.46 with 5 yar medians at 2.39 and 1.39.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	3.41%	6.15%	-0.43%	6.58%
2008	10	-1.13%	21.72%	9.24%	12.48%
2003	15	0.33%	13.02%	3.36%	9.66%
2001	17	4.75%	11.72%	2.84%	8.88%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.17, 19.30 and 21.74. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.02, 18.98 and 20.93. The corresponding historical median ratios are 11.44, 12.31 and 13.19. The current P/E Ratio is 13.59 based on a stock price of $15.90 and an EPS estimate of $1.17 for 2019. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $15.01. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.28, 1.43 and 1.57. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.06 based on a stock price of $15.90. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.95. The current P/B Ratio is 1.86 based on a stock price of $15.90, Book Value of $97M and Book Value per Share of $8.56. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.72%. The current dividend yield is 7.14% based on dividends of $1.135 and a stock price of $15.90. The current dividend is 7.5% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.37%. The current dividend yield at 7.14% is some 12% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.36. The current P/S Ratio is 6.03 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $29.9M and a stock price of $15.90. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. The best tests are probably the P/S Ratio, the dividend yield, and the P/B Ratio tests. I think that the P/E Ratio are rather high for this sort of company.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably reasonable. However, it would not be my favourite stock to buy. We have the revenue from KRL but not the earnings. If you look at the history of KRL they stop publishing their earnings back in 2010 after 3 years of earnings losses. To me, history counts.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one Buy recommendation. So, the consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $20.50. This implies a total return of 36.07% with 28.93% from capital gains and 7.14% from dividends. However, this is only from one analyst.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There are few entries and not everyone likes restaurants. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool likes the dividend yield on this fund. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this fund is an attractive investment. Nikhil Kumar on Motley Fool thinks the Keg is an industry leader. Rob Hiaasen on Riverton Roll talks about Cara buying more shares in this company.

Keg Royalties Income is a Canada based company. The organization works under the Restaurant business sector. The target market of this company is those people who want higher end casual dining experience. The business model of this company is that all Keg restaurants are placed under it, so the majority of its revenue is in the form of royalty income. Its web site is here Keg Royalties Income Fund.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Stella-Jones Inc (TSX-SJ, OTC-STLJF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV, NASDAQ-FSV) ... learn more on Friday, December 13, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Benj Gallander.... learn more on Thursday, December 12, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Stella-Jones Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Materials. The stock price seems relatively cheap. The company has very good debt ratios. The is some insider buying. I only buy low dividend yield stocks when the yields are over 1% and this stock current has a yield of 1.53%. See my spreadsheet on Stella-Jones Inc.

I do not own this stock of Stella-Jones Inc (TSX-SJ, OTC-STLJF). I started a spreadsheet on this stock in mid-2009 because of a favorable report I read on this stock. It was considered to be a dividend growth stock and I am always on the lookout for dividend growth stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed estimates for Revenue for 2018 was given as $2,123M, and it came in as $2,123.9. However, analysts have lowered Revenue estimates for 2019 and 2020 from $2,201M and $2,306M to $2,170M and $2,257M. The estimate for EPS for 2018 was $1.44 and it came in as $1.98. The estimates last year for 2019 and 2020 were $1.95 and $3.02, this year the estimates for 2019 and 2020 are $2.35 and $2.62.

The dividends are in the low range (under 2%). The current dividend is 1.53% and the 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 0.91%, 1.00% and 1.05%. The dividend has seldom gotten into the 2% range. The dividend growth is good range (15% and over). See the chart below. The most recent increase was in 2019 and it was for 16.7%. They have been paying dividends for the last 17 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are all fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 24% with 5 year coverage at 18.9%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 13% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for FCF for 2018 is 44% with 5 year coverage at 29%.

Debt Ratios are quite good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.18. The 5 year median is also 0.18. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is very good at 6.70 with 5 year median at 7.04. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is also very good at 2.64 with 5 year median at 2.16. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 1.61 and 0.61 with 5 year median ratios at 1.86 and 0.86.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	19.14%	8.96%	7.77%	1.19%
2008	10	18.90%	27.40%	25.46%	1.94%
2003	15	23.60%	30.96%	28.58%	2.38%
1998	20	21.51%	27.00%	25.27%	1.73%
1994	24		17.20%	16.45%	0.75%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.95, 20.48 and 24.00. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.69, 18.08 and 21.44. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.05, 12.00 and 14.73. The current P/E Ratio is 15.61 based on a stock price of $36.68 and 2019 EPS estimate of $2.35. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Because we are very close to the end of the year, we should also look at the P/E Ratio for 2020. It is 14.00 based on a stock price of $36.68 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.62. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $30.94. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.22, 1.50 and 1.77. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.19 based on a stock price of $36.68. The Graham Price for 2020 is $32.67. The P/GPR for 2020 is 1.12. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.60. The current P/B Ratio is 2.03 based on a stock price of $36.68, Book Value of $1,238M, and Book Value per Share of $18.11. The current P/B Ratio is some 22% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.05%. The current dividend yield is 1.53% based on dividends of $0.56 and a stock price of $36.68. The current dividend yield is 45% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.00%. The current dividend yield at 1.53% is some 53% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.55. The current P/S Ratio is 1.16 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $2,170M, Revenue per share of $31.73 and a stock price of $36.68. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. Most of my stock price testing is showing this result. I do especially like the P/S Ratio testing and the dividend yield testing, but there was no problem with any of the testing.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is certainly reasonable. Shareholders have generally done quite well with this stock. I happen to like stocks with low yields and high dividend growth. These are especially good if you are growing a portfolio. They are also good for people who are living off their dividends as they help the dividends to grow. This stock belongs to the Materials Sector and because of this you have to accept volatility in earnings, cash flow and stock price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (4) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $48.06. This implies a total return of 32.56% with 31.03% f rom capital gains and 1.53% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Some love it, some hate it. Nikhil Kumar onMotley Fool Thinks it has a solid financial position and is attractively valued. A writer on Simply Wall Street says there has been a clear decline in sentiment. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes the nice growth rate and the low payout rate of this company.

Stella-Jones Inc produces and sells lumber and wood products. The company sells products in five main customer categories. The five categories are railway ties, utility poles, residential lumber for use in housing construction, industrial products for use in marine and building industries, and logs and lumber, which sells wood products to homebuilding markets. Their markets are in Canada and US. Its web site is here Stella-Jones Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was First Capital Realty (TSX-FCR, OTC-FCRGF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX-KEG.UN, OTC-KRIUF) ... learn more on Wednesday, December 11, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Money Show 2019 - Kanwal Sarai.... learn more on Tuesday, December10, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

First Capital Realty

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Real Estate. The stock price is probably reasonable. DPRs are fine as is Debt Ratios. CEO and CFO are increasing their shares. See my spreadsheet on First Capital Realty .

I do not own this stock of First Capital Realty (TSX-FCR, OTC-FCRGF). In 2011 a reader asked me to review this real estate stock. Also, the site Canadian Dividend Stock site mentions this company as a top Canadian REIT.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that there was a lot of insider selling in the past, but for 2019 it was at 0.02% which is a normal amount. Insider selling hit a high of 0.38% in 2015 and it has been declining since. Also, over the years the CEO, CFO and a long time director have been increasing their shares. (Their chairman of the Board is new within the last year.)

The dividends are currently moderate (2% to 4% range) with a current dividend of 4.02%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.51%, 4.61% and 4.95%. There has been little in the way dividend increases since 2008. There was a 5% increase in 2012 and there was a 2.38% increase in 2015 and that is all.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 was 63% with 5 year coverage at 58%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 49% with 5 year coverage at 48%. The DPR for FCF is 54% for 2018 with 5 year coverage at 64%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.83. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 0.68. If you add in cash flow after dividends and add back in the current portion the of the long term debt, it is 1.63. The Debt Ratio is 1.92 for 2018 with 5 year median at 1.87. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 2.09 and 1.09 with 5 year medians at 2.26 and 1.26.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.47%	5.98%	1.26%	4.72%
2008	10	0.73%	10.88%	4.75%	6.14%
2003	15	1.19%	10.95%	4.36%	6.59%
1998	20	2.45%	8.72%	3.00%	5.72%
1994	24	6.73%	12.93%	5.16%	7.76%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.28, 13.91 and 15.53. The corresponding 10 year Ratios are 14.33, 15.97 and 17.62. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.38, 19.62 and 21.11. The current P/E Ratios are 16.32 based on 2019 EPS estimate of $1.31 and a stock price of $21.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $23.98. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 0.89 and 0.99. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.89 based on a stock price of $12.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.17. The current P/B Ratio is 1.10 based on Book Value of $4,273M, Book Value per Share of $19.50 and a stock price $21.38. The current ratio is 6% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.95. The current dividend yield is 4.02% based on dividends of $0.86 and a stock price of $21.38. The current dividend 19% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.61. With a current dividend yield of 4.02%, the current yield is 13% below the 10 year median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.26. The current P/S Ratio is 6.23 based on Revenue estimate for 2019 of $752M, Revenue per Share of $3.43 and a stock price of $21.38. The current ratio is 0.5% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, if not a little on the high side. The P/S Ratio test is a good and points to a price at the median. The dividend yield is a good one and it is pointing to a stock price above the median. The problem with the dividend yield test is that there has been not much in increases lately. This, of course, points to how management feels about the future and lack of increases say they are negative or cautious. Most of the testing is fine.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price is probably reasonable. Their shareholders have done fine over the year, but it would be nice is they started to increase their dividends again. This company is considered to be a moderate risk. It is a good sign the reduction in insider selling.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (3) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.81. This implies a total return of 15.39% with 11.37% from capital gains and 4.02% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There is little coverage of this company, but the last note is positive. Rahim Bhayani of Motley Fool likes this stock because of its high quality properties. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the company is buying out more in EPS and CF than he likes. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider trading. The company discusses its third quarter results on Newswire.

First Capital Realty Inc is a Canada-based owner, developer, and manager of grocery-anchored urban properties. Historically, revenue contributions have come from supermarkets, drugstores, banks, liquor stores, restaurants, fitness centers, medical and childcare facilities, and other personal services. Its web site is here First Capital Realty.

The last stock I wrote about was about was DHX Media Ltd (TSX-DHX, OTC-DHXMF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Stella-Jones Inc (TSX-SJ, OTC-STLJF) ... learn more on Monday, December 9, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

DHX Media Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Consumer Stock. The stock price is probably cheap. There is a lot of changes going on present for this company so, even though it is cheap, it is of a high risk nature. Most debt ratios are fine. See my spreadsheet on DHX Media Ltd.

I do not own this stock of DHX Media Ltd (TSX-DHX, OTC-DHXMF). In the CanTech Letter of 2014 May 2014 Byron Capital says investors should accumulate DHX Media aggressively. I also have a report on this stock from Global Maxfin Capital who rates this stock a strong buy in January 2014.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they have changed a lot of the executives and board members. Almost no one I had an officer or board member is listed as such this year. The only person I had on my list of officers and directors is an officer who has become the CFO. They also have changed the company’s name but do have seem to change the name or symbol on the TSX. The company is now called WildBrian. There is the same number of Directors as last year and they still have 2 women on the board.

Long Term Debt has been dropping, but not as fast as the stock price. At the end of June 2019 financial year, the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 2.32 with the debt falling 30%, but the market cap dropping over 38%.

The company has suspended the dividends because of EPS losses.

Debt Ratios are fine except for the Long Term Debt which is too high compared to the stock’s market cap. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2018 is 2.31 with a current one of 2.33. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 1.70 with 5 year median also at 1.70. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.61 with 5 year median at 1.48. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.64 and 1.64.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 13 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

>

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.00%	-17.06%	-18.45%	1.39%
2008	10	0.00%	18.38%	15.45%	2.93%
2003	13		0.41%	-0.79%	1.20%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are all negative. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.03, 26.68 and 33.68. The corresponding historical ratios are 19.03, 26.68 and 33.68. The current P/E Ratio is negative, so cannot be tested. The P/E Ratio for 2021 is 53.67 based on a stock price of $1.61 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $0.03. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $1.57. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.42, 2.37 and 3.20. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.07 based on a stock price of $1.61. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.50. The current P/B Ratio is 0.46 based on a stock price of $1.61, Book Value of $491M and a Book Value per Share of $3.64. The current ratio is some 69% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I cannot do an historical median dividend yield test because dividends have been suspended.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.94. The current P/S Ratio is 0.50 based on 2021 Revenue estimate of $453, Revenue per Share of $3.36 and a stock price of $1.61. The current ratio is some 74% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The P/S Ratio test is probably the best, but there are no problems with the other tests except for the P/E Ratio test. The P/E Ratios make no sense at all. They are either negative or much too high for this sort of company.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably cheap. However, the company seems to be in some trouble and it is hard to say if their new strategy will work. I am not interested in this company at the present time.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), Hold (7), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $2.04. This implies a total return of 21.43% all from capital gains.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They think it is going through some rough times. Anders Bylund on Motley Fool talks about the company’s old and new strategy. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider buying at this firm. The company reports via The Chronicle Herald their firstly quarterly results. David Paddon, The Canadian Press on BNN Bloomberg talks about the company changing its name to WildBrian.

DHX Media Ltd is a children's content and brands company, recognized globally for properties such as Peanuts, Strawberry Shortcake, Caillou, Inspector Gadget and Degrassi franchise. Its web site is here DHX Media Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Northland Power Inc (TSX-NPI, OTC-NPIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be First Capital Realty (TSX-FCR, OTC-FCRGF) ... learn more on Friday, December 06. 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy December 2019.... learn more on Thursday, December 05, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Northland Power Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Stock price is probably reasonable. My stock price testing was all over the place as was the analyst’s recommendations. I do not like most of the debt ratios. This can spell trouble in an economic recession. See my spreadsheet on Northland Power Inc .

I do not own this stock of Northland Power Inc (TSX-NPI, OTC-NPIFF). This company is into generating electric power. I have a lot invested in pipelines and I would like to have more invested in electric power as part of my utility’s investments. I read a report on this stock that said it was a good defensive stock to buy. That is, it is a good stock to hold in a stock market correction. I can certainly see the logic of using utility stocks as defensive stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the Long Term Debt is still too high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 1.68. The current ratio is lower but still a bad ratio at 1.32. It is best if this ratio is at 0.50, but you certainly do not want it above 1.00. I do not like the other debt ratios either. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 1.35 falling to a current 1.02. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.18 and falling to a current 1.16. Both these ratios should be 1.50 or higher.

Also, even though the Book Value is not declining the Book Value per Share is. It is the Book Value per Share that is important to shareholders. Book Value per share is down by 0.64% and 3.98% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

This stock used to be an income trust and as such had quite high yields, topping out at 15%. The current yield is in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.36%. However, the 5, 10 and historical median yields are the good range (over 5%) at 5.25%, 6.38% and 7.71%.

The dividend growth has been low because there has been only one increase which occurred in 2018, since 2009. There have been no increases in 2019. Most old income trust companies paid out a lot more than they can as corporations. This company has been trying to get the DPR for EPS down to a reasonable ratio. They are getting there, so there might be dividend growth in the future.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are getting better and current ones are to fine with the DPR EPS Ratio a bit high still. The DPR for 2018 is 82% with a 5 year coverage of 268%. The problem is years with EPS losses, and EPS below the dividends. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 19% with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for FCF is at 39% for 2018 with 5 year coverage that cannot be calculated due to too many years of negative FCF in the last 5 years.

Debt Ratios are not what I like to see. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 1.68. This is much too high. The current one is 1.32 due to a rise in the stock price. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.35 for 2018 with 5 year median at 1.35 also. If you add in cash flow after dividends the ratio goes to 2.52 with a 5 year median of 1.94. The Debt Ratio is 1.18 in 2018 with 5 year median of 1.19. These ratios are too low. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 6.71 and 5.71 with 5 year medians of 4.05 and 3.05. The current ratios are too high.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

A lot of the past total return was in dividends. Dividends will be much lower in the future going forward.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	2.13%	13.26%	6.99%	6.28%
2008	10	1.06%	13.89%	6.46%	7.43%
2003	15	1.36%	11.64%	4.12%	7.52%
1998	20	1.56%	10.51%	3.23%	7.28%
1997	21	3.36%	11.68%	3.76%	7.93%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.68, 15.65 and 17.62. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.69, 16.03 and 18.38. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.68, 15.65 and 17.89. The current P/E Ratio is 15.47 based on a stock price of $27.53 and 2019 EPS estimate of $1.78. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $13.04. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.13, 2.50 and 2.69. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.11 based on a stock price of $27.53. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.16. The current P/B Ratio is 6.48 based on a Book Value of $765M, Book Value per Share of $4.25 and a stock price of $27.53. The current ratio is some 56% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.71%. The current dividend yield is 4.36% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $27.53. The current yield is 43% below the historical one. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year dividend yield of 6.38%. The current dividend yield is 4.36% based on dividends of $1.20 and a stock price of $27.53. The current yield is 31% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.00. The current P/S Ratio is 2.99 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of 1,660M, Revenue per Share of $9.21 and a stock price of $27.53. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that the stock price might be reasonable. The results of the stock price testing are all over the place mostly fluctuating from cheap to expensive. The P/S Ratio is probably a good one, but you not only have to grow your revenue, but you have to be able to make a profit from your revenue. Part of the problem is the increasing number of outstanding shares which have increased by 6.3% and 11.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price probably is reasonable. However, I have a problem with the debt ratios and the company’s ability to make a profit which is reflected in the very high P/B Ratio. The P/GP Ratio testing says it is relatively cheap, but the ratios are very high. I might consider the company if it survives the next recession.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (4), Hold (1), and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $29.63. This implies a total return of 11.99% with 7.63% from capital gains and 4.36% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. The analysts like this stock. Victoria Hetherington on Motley Fool thinks this stock is a strong buy in the Green Economy. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the company’s high ROE. This is not the way I calculate it. I get a current one of 22% but the 5 year ROE is at 11% per year. I do not consider NCI or Preferred Shares as part of the Book Value. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the company producing an higher than expected quarterly earnings. The company on Globe Newswire talks about their third quarterly results..

Northland Power Inc is an operator of power producing facilities. These facilities generate electricity from natural gas or use renewable sources, such as wind and solar power. Most of the electricity produced by Northland Power comes from its thermal facilities. Additionally, almost all of Northland Power's power generation takes place in Canada. The company also owns assets in Mexico, the Netherlands, and Germany. Its web site is here Northland Power Inc Northland Power Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Chesswood Group Ltd (TSX-CHW, OTC-CHWWF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be DHX Media Ltd (TSX-DHX, OTC-DHXMF) ... learn more on Wednesday, December 06, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks December 2019.... learn more on Tuesday, December 03, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.