Atlantic Power Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Utility Stock. The stock is probably cheap but it has declining sales, no dividends and debt ratios shows a big vulnerability. See my spreadsheet on Atlantic Power Corp.

I do not own this stock of Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT). Because I like utility companies and in 2010, I have read two columns that recommended this particular utility company (TSX-ATP), I decided to investigate it. After investigating this stock, my first impression is that I would not touch it with a barge-pole.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there is a large difference between basic and diluted shares outstanding. This is because of convertible debentures. They have repurchased some 7.8M shares for $16.6M. They said that they were stopping the dividends partly to use the money to buy back shares.

There are no longer any dividends being paid. The company wants to use the money it has to pay down debt (which I agree with) and to buy back shares (which they probably cannot afford to do.)

The company has a lot of preferred shares and it is because of their value that shareholders book value is negative. The company also has convertible debentures and this causes a large difference in basic and diluted EPS,

Debt Ratios are a big vulnerability. The debt level is much too high with Liquidity Ratio and Debt Ratio being too low. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 2.01. This is very high and you would like it below 1.00 and some analysts like it to be below 050. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 1.18 but becomes very good when you added in cash flow and then it is 2.36. The Debt Ratio is quite low at 1.23. I cannot calculate Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios because of the negative book value.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2018 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

As you can see from the chart below only Canadian shareholders eked out return of 3.38% because of dividends.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.00%	-1.85%	-4.42%	2.57%
2008	10	0.00%	1.33%	-9.29%	10.62%
2003	15	0.00%	3.14%	-7.79%	10.93%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2018 in US$. The US shareholders have not done well.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.00%	-6.74%	-9.01%	2.28%
2008	10	0.00%	-4.59%	-13.83%	9.24%
2003	15	0.00%	-1.68%	-11.21%	9.53%

I cannot do any P/E Ratio testing because the P/E Ratios are all negative. This includes for the 5, 10 and historical periods. However, the current P/E is 8.15 based on a stock price of $3.24 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.05 CDN$ ($0.04 US$). A P/E Ratio of 8.15 is a low P/E Ratio. This is in CDN$

I cannot calculate a Graham Price because this stock’s book value is negative.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.32. However, I cannot calculate a new P/B Ratio because the book value is negative.

I cannot do a dividend yield test because they have cancelled the dividends.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.80. The current P/S Ratio is 0.87 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $311M, Revenue per Share of $2.84 and a stock price of $2.48. The current ratio is 10% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This is in US$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. Most tests cannot be run because of problems like a negative book value and no past P/E Ratios that I can use in testing.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Personally, I would not buy this stock. Not only is it not a dividend growth company, its revenue is falling and it has a negative book value. It also has a high debt load. It is also a utility and even if it recovers, how much would you make on a recovering utility stock?

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (3). The 12 months stock price consensus is $3.13. This implies a total return of 26.10% with it all from capital gains.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There are few analysts writing on this stock and over the years most do not like it. Rich Smith on Motley Fool talks about this tock dropping in May with positive news. Matt Smith on Motley Fool thinks the company will be unable to unlock value for investors at any time soon. A writer on Simply Wall Street says it is cheap but not posed to produced positive earnings in the new future. A writer on Zacks via Nasdaq talks about this stock being undervalued..

Atlantic Power Corp owns and operates a fleet of power generation assets in the United States and Canada. Its power generation projects sell electricity to utilities and other commercial customers. Atlantic Power's segments include Eastern U.S., Western U.S., and Canada. Its web site is here Atlantic Power Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Obsidian Energy Ltd TSX-OBE, NYSE-OBE) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 24, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about 20 American Dividend Stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, July 23, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Artis REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying REIT. Stock price is reasonable and below the median. It is not a dividend growth stock. Insiders are buying and that is positive. However, they just cut their distributions by 50% and this is a negative. See my spreadsheet on Artis REIT.

I do not own this stock of Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF). Early in 2013, this company was mentioned as a good REIT to own. A number of people I correspond with mentioned this REIT. However, my first view of it is not positive. It is also not a dividend growth stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed was that there is a lot of insider buying. The Net Insider Buying (NIB) is at 0.14% of market cap over the past year. You would expect it to be around 0.01% or at the most 0.02%. The other thing is that this company just cut their dividends (or distributions) by 50%.

Most past yields are all good (5% and higher). The current yield, after the recent cut in dividends is lower in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.62%. This is lower than the yield has been in the past. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 8.21%, 8.28% and 8.02%.

There were a few increases to the dividend before 2010 and none since. The most recent change is a dividend cut of 50%. If you look at dividends to date rather than to 2018, they are much worse at -12.94%, -6.70% and -2.28% for durations of 5, 10 and 14 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. When you area dealing with REITs the Distribution Payout Ratios are based on Funds From Operations (FFO) or Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO). The DPR for FFO for 2018 is 83% with 5 year coverage at 73%. The DPR for AFFO for 2018 is 113% with 5 year coverage at 91%. The DPR for AFFO for 2018 is too high but the 5 year coverage is fine. This DPR is expected to fall in 2019.

Debt Ratios are fine, but the Liquidity Ratio is a vulnerability. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2018 is 0.92. The Liquidity Ratio appears low at first at 0.63. However, if you add in Cash Flow after the distribution and also add back in the current portion of the long term debt you get to 1.64. It is a vulnerability. You need to be assured that the company can rollover any current debt due each year. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is good at 1.92. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.09 and 1.09.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 14 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-0.85%	-0.42%	-9.07%	8.64%
2008	10	-0.31%	15.85%	2.30%	13.55%
2004	14	2.55%	17.20%	2.95%	14.25%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.06, 11.35 and 12.30. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.50, 7.10 and 7.70. The corresponding historical ratios are 3.18, 3.59 and 4.01. If you eyeball the ratios, they are all over the place and have negative values also. That is probably why they are low. The current P/E Ratio is 16.24 based on a stock price of $11.24 and last 12 months EPS of 0.72. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Since this is a REIT, we should us P/AFFO. The 5 year ratios are 9.62, 12.27 and 13.30. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.15, 12.15 and 13.34. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 11.57 based on 2019 AFFO estimate of 1.01 and a stock price of 11.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $15.91. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.58, 0.66 and 0.76. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.73 based on a stock price of $11.24. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.88. The current P/B ratio is 0.75 based on a stock price of $11.24, Book Value of $2,260M, and Book Value per Share of $15.62. The current P/B Ratio is some 16% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.02%. The current yield is 4.62% based on dividends of $0.54 and a stock price of $11.24. The current yield is some 42% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

If you cut the historical yield in half (because dividends have been cut by 50%), you get an historical yield of 4.01% and this is 15.20 below current yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.90. The current P/S Ratio is 3.21 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $527M, Revenue per share of $3.64 and a stock price of $11.24. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively reasonable. The best tests here is the P/S Ratio and P/B Ratio tests. Both these show the stock as relatively reasonable and below the median. Since this is a REIT, the P/E Ratio tests probably tests us nothing. The P/AFFO Ratio tests shows the same results as the P/S Ratio and P/B Ratio tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It is discouraging when a stock cuts their distributions. They are making changes to the company and insiders are buying, but the last couple of years has not been profitable for the company nor the shareholders. Even when it was profitable to shareholders, most of the profit was in distributions. Capital gains has been low to non-existent and with the cut in distributions, Total Return will suffer in the future. It would not be my favourite REIT, but it is at a reasonable price.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $12.69. This implies a total return of 13.17% with 8.55% from capital gains and 4.62% from dividends based on a current price of $11.69.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They have various views. One analyst says it is complicated because they have cut their distributions. Ryan Vanzo on Motley Fool says stocks exposures you to a diversified portfolio that isn’t dependent on one particular region, industry, or customer. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about insider buying for this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks this stock is undervalued. A gazette writer on Addison Gazette says this company’s balance sheet is of a median strength.

Artis Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated closed-end REIT based in Canada. Artis REIT's portfolio comprises properties located in Central and Western Canada and select markets throughout the United States. The properties are divided into three categories: office, retail, and industrial. Its web site is here Artis REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atlantic Power Corp (TSX-ATP, NYSE-AT) ... learn more on Monday, July 22. 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

TMX Group Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Price is above the median to expensive. I think there is vulnerability because of debt ratios and the Intangible/Market Cap Ratio. If you used goodwill and intangibles compared to market cap, the ratio is 1.42. The dividend growth is uneven and undependable. See my spreadsheet on TMX Group Ltd.

I do not own this stock of TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF). I looked at this stock in 2008 after I found it on a list of Strongest Dividend Growth stocks. I am interested in such stocks. However, this has not turned out to be a dividend growth stock after all. Dividends were flat from 2008 to 2015.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company has very low Liquidity Ratio. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 0.99. Adding in Cash Flow after dividends just gets you to 1.00. If this ratio is below 1.00, it means current assets cannot cover current liabilities. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or great.

Also, the Intangible/Market Cap Ratio is high at 1.01 for 2018. If this ratio includes both goodwill and intangibles the ratio is 1.42. These are very high. This means that goodwill and intangibles is higher than the what the market values this stock at (that is the market cap).

Dividend yields have been low (under 2%) to Moderate (2 to 4% range). The current dividend is 2.68%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 2.94%, 3.31% and 3.11%.

Dividend Growth has been very uneven. Dividends grow rapidly in the first few years, then they flat from 2005 to 2015 and then they started to do good increases again in 2017. The dividends were flat from that long period because of Dividend Payout Ratios being high, especially for EPS. The last dividend increase was for 2019 and it was for 6.9%. Individual increases were sometimes high, but the overall effect is dividends in the low range (under 8%).

The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently fine. They have been high in the past. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 44% with 5 year coverage at 56%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 28% with 5 year coverage at 27%.

Debt Ratios are a vulnerability as they are not in good ranges. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2018 is low and good at 0.19. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is too low at just 0.99. That means that the current assets cannot coverage the current liabilities. It does not get much better adding cash flow after dividends, nor adding back in debt. That is because current assets and liabilities are high number and cash flow is relatively much lower as is current portion of the long term debt.

The Debt Ratio are low at 1.12. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher as I prefer the Liquidity Ratio to be in that range too. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 9.36 and 8.36 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	6.96%	9.83%	6.75%	3.08%
2008	10	3.95%	15.26%	10.88%	4.39%
2003	15	13.17%	12.37%	8.31%	4.06%
2002	16		20.64%	12.56%	8.08%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.09, 15.18 and 17.55. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.75, 15.39 and 18.91. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.65, 21.08 and 25.00. The current P/E Ratio is 18.98 based on a stock price of $92.61 and 2019 estimate of $4.88. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $81.58. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.07 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.14 based on a stock price of $92.61. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 1.53 based on a stock price of $92.61, Book Value of $3.382M, and Book Value per Share of $60.62. The current P/B Ratio is some 34% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.11%. The current dividend yield is 2.68% based on dividends of $1.98 and a stock price of $92.61. The current yield is 14% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.70. The current P/S Ratio is 6.28 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $823M, Revenue per Shae of $14.75 and a stock price of $92.61. The current ratio is 34% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is above the median to expensive and probably expensive. The testing shows the stock price as relatively above the median or relatively expensive. Especially telling is the P/S Ratio and P/B Ratio tests. The dividend growth has such a checkered past that it is hard to say if this is a good test or not.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This would not be a company I would personally buy because of the Liquidity Ratio and the Debt Ratios. I think in this case it is a vulnerability. Another negative is that the if you compare the intangibles to the market cap the ratio is 1.01. If you use goodwill and intangibles the ratio is 1.42. The positive is that there has been some good dividend increases, but the last one for 2019 is much lower at 6.9%. The increase for 2017 was 11.1% and for 2018 was 16%.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (5) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $102.67. This implies a total return of 13.54% with 10.86% from capital gains and 2.68% from dividends based on a current stock price of $62.61.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They think it is a good financial stock and one worthwhile buying. Vishesh Raisinghani on Motley Fool thinks that now maybe a good time to start to accumulate this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that shareholders have been doing well lately in Total Shareholder Return. The company gave some statistics and compared them to past periods on News Wire. Vishesh Raisinghani on Motley Fool says that buying this company you can be on Canada’s rebounding IPO Market.

TMX Group is an integrated, multi-asset class exchange group based in Canada with global exposure and services offered to the international financial community. TMX Group's businesses operate cash and derivatives markets for equities, fixed income, and energy, among other asset classes. The company also provides clearing facilities, data products, and other related services. Its web site is here TMX Group Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Artis REIT (TSX-AX.UN, OTC-ARESF) ... learn more on Friday, July around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Boring Investing 2.... learn more on Thursday, July 18, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Inter Pipeline Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Decreasing dividend growth and high Dividend Payout Ratios. The low Liquidity Ratio is a vulnerability. Stock price is relatively cheap to reasonable. See my spreadsheet on Inter Pipeline Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF). In 2008, a friend had asked me about this pipeline and I had no information on it, so I investigated it. It is a utility and I follow lots of utility stocks. They used to be a Limited Partnership and they changed to a corporation in 2013.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that dividend increases have really slowed down recently. Annual increases are since 2015 to 2019 are 13.22%, 5.92%, 3.83%, 3.54%, 1.63%. The last increase was this year and it was for 1.8%. Increases occur for the last dividend payment of the year. This generally shows how management views the future. This could also have occurred for this stock because of very high Dividend Payout Ratios.

The dividend yields have mostly been in the good range (5% and above). It had high dividend yields as a Limited Partnership stock. Dividend yields are now lower, but still in a high range. The current dividend yield is 7.68%. The 5, 10 and historical yields are 6.24%, 7.27% and 8.63%.

Dividends have gone up and down and remained flat at different times in the past. The average growth has been low (under 8%) as you can see from the chart below. The recent dividends increases have increasingly become lower and the last increase was for just 1.8% in 2019.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are much too high. They have a problem with the DPR in connection with EPS. The DPR for EPS for 2018 was 110% with 5 year coverage at 117%. It has seldom been below 100% and analysts do not see that happening in the near future. The DPR for CFPS is also too high as it should be at 40% or less. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 was 62% with 5 year coverage at 66%. Lots of companies that used to be Limited Partnerships or Income Trusts are having a hard time getting the DPR to the levels it should be.

Debt Ratios are acceptable, but the Liquidity Ratio is a vulnerability. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.56. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.18. In order to get it above 1.00, we need to add in cash flow after dividends and add back in current debt due and we get a low but acceptable ratio of 1.33. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.53 with 5 year median of 1.53 also. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.89 and 1.89 respectively with 5 year median at 3.20 and 2.20.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	7.81%	0.99%	-5.62%	6.62%
2008	10	7.19%	21.75%	10.62%	11.13%
2003	15	5.82%	15.14%	6.28%	8.87%
1998	20	3.99%	15.90%	6.30%	9.60%
1997	21		9.86%	3.19%	6.67%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.85, 18.72 and 22.78. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.90, 17.86 and 20.50. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.90, 18.16 and 20.50. The current P/E Ratio is 17.41 based a stock price of $22.28 and 2019 EPS estimate of $1.28. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $16.67. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.55 and 1.82. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.34 based on a stock price of $22.28. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.98. The current P/B Ratio is 2.31 based on Book Value of $3,941M, Book Value per Share of $9.65 and a stock price of $22.28. The current ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.63%. The current dividend yield is 7.68% based on dividends of $1.71 and a stock price of $22.28. The current yield is 11% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.59. The current P/S Ratio is 3.65 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $2,495M, Revenue per Share of $6.11 and a stock price of $22.28. The current ratio is 21% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap to reasonable. You can ignore the only test that shows the stock above the median because it is a dividend yield test and this stock used to be a Limited Partnership which would have higher yields than a corporation. The good tests of P/S Ratio and P/B Ratio show it as relatively cheap and the rests as relatively reasonable and below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It is probably a safe utility stock, but I would worry about the Liquidity Ratio which would be a vulnerability in a bear market. There is almost no total return for shareholders over the past 5 years. Five years ago, the P/E Ratio was negative because of an earnings loss but the stock price is relatively high. The trailing P/E was 22.66. There is capital gain over the past 10 years, but 10 years ago the P/E was really low at just 6.29. The 10 year capital gains at 10.62% per year.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (3), Hold (8) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $24.44. This implies a total return of 17.37% with 9.69% from capital gains and 7.68% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying at Stock Chase. Generally, it is thought of a safe stock. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool says this is his top pick for July. A writer on Simply Wall street via Yahoo Finance talks about share price being down over past 5 years.. David Burrows discusses this stock on BNN Bloomberg. Deborah Jaremko on JWN Energy talks about the company’s new pipeline.

Inter Pipeline operates crude oil pipelines, natural gas liquids extraction, and bulk liquid storage businesses in Canada and Europe. The company's oil sands pipelines cover 3,300 kilometers of pipeline and hold the capacity for 4.6 million barrels a day of delivery volumes. Conventional crude pipelines, NGL infrastructure, and 31 mmbbl of liquid storage in Europe round out the company's operations. Its web site is here Inter Pipeline Ltd .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Morneau Shepell Inc (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TMX Group Ltd (TSX-X, OTC-TMXXF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 17, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Fortis by Gordon Pape.... learn more on Tuesday, July 16, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Empire Company Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is probably reasonable. They have had some problems recently, especially with their Safeway purchase. However, the higher dividend recent increase shows that the management has confidence in the future. See my spreadsheet on Empire Company Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF). I have known about this stock for some time before I decided to follow it. This stock has a financial year ending in end of April or first of May each year.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the dividend was increased at the rate of 9.1% in 2019. This is a higher rate that it has been for the last few years. This is a sign of optimism on the part of management.

Dividend yield is low (under 2%). The yield seldom rises to the 2% range. The current dividend yield is 1.46%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 1.64%, $1.57% and 1.45%. The dividend growth has varied a lot over the more than 30 years I have tracked this stock. You can see from the chart below it was higher in the past. However, the last dividend raise was in 2019 and it was for 9.1%. Generally, higher dividend increases suggest that the management has confidence in the future.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are low and therefore good. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 31% with 5 year coverage at 36%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 13% with 5 year coverage at 11%.

Debt Ratios are fine, but there is vulnerability with the low Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.24. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.98. This means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends the rate is 1.27. It is still low. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.74. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.40 and 1.38.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	4.88%	5.13%	3.57%	1.64%
2008	10	6.55%	7.54%	5.90%	1.56%
2003	15	8.28%	9.97%	8.11%	1.86%
1998	20	12.02%	10.52%	8.76%	1.76%
1993	25	10.87%	11.44%	9.70%	1.74%
1988	30	9.79%	10.32%	8.84%	1.48%
1984	34	9.80%	15.20%	12.54%	2.66%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.99, 18.95 and 21.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.94. 17.32 and 20.70. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.54, 12.13 and 13.91. The current P/E Ratio is 15.78 based on a current stock price of $32.83 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.08. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $26.30. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 1.07 and 1.23. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.25 based on a stock price of $32.83. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.22. The current P/B Ratio is 2.22 based on a Book Value of $4,016M, Book Value per Share of $14.78 and a stock price of $32.83. The current ratio is 82% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.45%. The current dividend yield is 1.46% based on dividends of $0.48 and a stock price of $32.83. The current yield is 2.2% above the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable around the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.25. The current P/S Ratio is 0.34 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $26,196M, Revenue per Share of $96.37 and a stock price of $32.83. The current ratio is 35% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable to expensive Most of the testing is showing that the stock price is relatively expensive. The major exception is the Dividend Yield test. This is generally a good test and it is showing the price as around the median. I know that the P/E Ratio testing is showing the price below the median, but this is seldom a good test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is certainly a good dividend growth company which is what I like. The reason I would not buy is because I already have grocery company stock of Metro. It is certainly not cheap but it is probably reasonable. They have had some recent problems which has suppressed some of the ratios, like P/S Ratio and P/B Ratio.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (4) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $35.22. This implies a total return of 8.74% with a capital gain of 7.28% and dividends of $1.46%.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They think it is a well-run company, but some analysts do not like grocery companies. David Jagielski on Motley Fool likes this company for its consistency. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the dividend being sustainable. Aleksandra Sagan on Financial Post talks about the company opening a discount Grocery Store in Western Canada. The Canadian Press via Times Colonist talks about the company’s fourth quarterly results.

Empire Co Ltd key businesses are food retailing, investments, and other operations. The food retailing division operates through Empire's subsidiary Sobeys and represents nearly all of the company's income. Retail banners including Sobeys, Safeway, IGA, Foodland, FreshCo, Thrifty Foods, Lawton's Drug Stores, and multiple retail fuel locations. They have an investment in Crombie REIT. Its web site is here Empire Company Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Suncor Energy Inc (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Morneau Shepell Inc (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF) ... learn more on July 12, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Boring Investing.... learn more on Thursday, July 11, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Morneau Shepell Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. I expect that the stock will be a Dividend Growth Stock in the Future. Currently the stock price is probably expensive and now may not be the time to buy this stock. See my spreadsheet on Morneau Shepell Inc.

I do not own this stock of Morneau Shepell Inc (TSX-MSI, OTC-MSIXF). Every once in a while, I go through the stocks that my brokerage, TD Waterhouse, is recommending to find promising new stocks. In February 2013 this stock was rated a buy by TD Waterhouse. It was under Diversified Financials.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed Long Term Debt increased by 108%, but the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is still low at 0.23. Goodwill and Intangible Assets also increased by 90% and the Ratio here is 0.75. It is ok, but getting high. They made an acquisition in 2018 and issued shares. Outstanding Shares are up over 19% in 2018.

This company used to be an Income Trust. Income Trusts can pay much higher dividends than corporations. When companies change from an Income Trust to a corporation, they will be paying dividends that are too high to be supported by earnings.

Companies therefore either cut the dividends or kept them flat until they can be covered by earnings or a combination. This company both cut the dividends then kept them flat. The cut was only a 17% cut. Dividends have been flat for the last 7 years. However, analysts expect that the company will be paying out less than earnings by 2020 and then they will start to increase dividends again. See chart below for dividend growth.

The dividend yield is currently moderate (2 to 4% ranges), but the yields used to be high because it was an Income Trust Company. The current dividend yield is 2.63%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 4.59%, 5.27% and 6.10%. In the future you can expect dividend yields probably in the 2% to 3% ranges.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are expected to be fine in 2020 and beyond. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 217% with 5 year coverage at 169%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 45% with 5 year coverage at 43%. In 2020 the DPR for EPS is expected to be around 73%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.23. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is 1.49 with 5 year median at 1.67. This ratio has varied over time. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.82 with 5 year median at 1.80. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio for 2018 is 2.22 and 1.22 respectively, with 5 year medians at 2.15 and 1.15.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 14 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.00%	14.42%	10.18%	4.24%
2008	10	-0.62%	17.60%	11.06%	6.54%
2004	14	-0.48%	12.12%	6.78%	5.34%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 29.68, 34.66 and 41.45. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 28.78, 33.84 and 37.12. The corresponding historical ratios are 27.7, 33.84 and 37.12. The current P/E Ratio is 45.69 based on a stock price of $29.70 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $11.63. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.60, 1.89 and 2.17. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.55 based on a stock price of $29.70. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.22. The current P/B Ratio is 3.21 based on a Book Value of $596M, Book Value per Share of $9.25 and a stock price of $29.70. The current ratio is 45% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.10%. The current dividend yield is 2.63% based on dividends of $0.78 and a stock price of $29.70. The current yield is some 57% lower than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.41. The current P/S Ratio is 2.28 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $840M, Revenue per Share of $13.04 and a stock price of $27.90. The current ratio is 61% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is the stock price is probably expensive. The stock price is showing as expensive on all tests. We can ignore the Dividend yield test because the company was an Income Trust, but all the others are showing expensive also.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This would be a good Financial Services stock to own. It will probably be a dividend growth stock in the future. However, it is probably too expensive to buy at the present time.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. Personally, I agree with the Hold rating. The 12 month stock price is $31.00. This implies a total return of 7.00% with 4.38% from capital gains and 2.63% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Analysts think this is a solid company. Karen Thomas on Motley Fool thinks that the company has hit a peak and you should sell.. The company put a notice on News Wire bout them being recognized as a leading human resources service provider by Canadian HR Reporter for the fourth consecutive year.. A Writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the company’s debt load is a vulnerability. Harry Campbell on Altcoin Mercury talks about analysts’ estimates.

Morneau Shepell Inc operates as a human resource consulting and technology company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company provides health and productivity, administrative, and retirement solutions to assist employers in managing the financial security, health, and productivity of their employees. Its web site is here Morneau Shepell Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Inter Pipeline Ltd (TSX-IPL, OTC-IPPLF) ... learn more on Monday, July 15, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Suncor Energy Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Resource. The Dividend Yield test shows this stock as being very cheap. It is a good test. With stocks that generally have a very low yield, the time to buy them is when the yield is much higher as is the case here. It is a good time to buy resource stocks because of recent problems in this area. See my spreadsheet on Suncor Energy Inc.

I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU. PCA and SU merged in 2009.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow as well as Dividend Payout Ratios have improved over the past 2 years.

The dividend yields used to be low (under 2%). The yields started to climb in 2008. Currently the yields are moderate (2 to 4%). The current dividend yield is 4.09%, with 5, 10 and historical yields at 3.11%, 2.42% and 0.65%. For most periods the dividend growth has been good (above 15%). It has slipped for the past 5 years to be at 14.6% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2019 and it was for 16.7%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 71.3% with 5 year coverage at 111%. The 5 year coverage is high because they paid out more than the EPS in both 2014 and 2015. The DPR for 2019 is expected to be 46% with 5 year coverage at 92%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 22% with 5 year coverage at 23%.

Debt Ratios are fine, but there is a vulnerability with the Liquidity Ratio where the company requires cash flow to cover current liabilities. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.23. The Liquidity Ratio for 2018 is low at just 0.84. This means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you added in cash flow after dividends the ratio becomes 1.65. The 5 year median is 1.36. The Debt Ratio is 1.97 with 5 year median at 2.01. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2.04 and 1.04.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

>

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	14.55%	3.67%	0.47%	3.20%
2008	10	21.45%	9.01%	6.21%	2.80%
2003	15	23.26%	4.61%	2.86%	1.74%
1998	20	18.30%	11.38%	9.38%	2.00%
1995	23	19.02%	9.97%	8.29%	1.68%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.05, 21.23 and 25.41. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.47, 16.71 and 19.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.39. 23.17 and 28.63. The current P/E Ratio is 11.20 based on a stock price of $41.10 and 2019 EPS estimate of $3.67. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $48.19. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.83, 1.01 and 1.18. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.85 based on a stock price of $41.10. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the medain.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.36. The current P/B Ratio is 1.46 based on a stock price of $41.10, Book Value of $44,262M and Book Value of $28.13. The current ratio is higher than the 10 year median ratio by 7.6%. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.65%. The current dividend yield is 4.09% based on dividends of $1.68 and a stock price of $41.10. The current yield is some 529% above the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.60. The current P/S Ratio is 1.64 based on a stock price of $41.10, Revenue Estimate for 2019 of $39,535M and Revenue per Share of $25.12. The current ratio is 2% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is mixed. The Dividend Yield test is a good one and it shows the stock as being cheap. The company tends to have good dividend growth. On some measures the price is just reasonable. This is because you cannot ignore the P/S Ratio testing. The P/B Ratio test shows the same thing, however a P/B Ratio of 1.46 is a good ratio. These tests show the stock as only reasonable because of problems in resources since the 2008 bear and recession.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is one of the better resource stocks to invest in. I personally do not have much in resource stocks with only 1 stock representing around 1% of my portfolio. If you want to buy one resource, this is a good one and it is best to buy when the dividend yields are high. In this case it is the current yield is 4.09%. Never a better time to buy this stock.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (10), Buy (10) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $53.48. This implies a total return of $34.215 with 30.12% from capital gains and 4.09% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. It is considered a good company but many analysts do not like energy companies. David Jagielski on Motley Fool calls this a resilient company. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the long term debt is fine but worries about the Liquidity Ratio. Geoffrey Morgan on the Financial Post talks about the Oil Industry’s investment in clean tech. Lisa Durand on Dispatch Tribunal talks about recent analyst’s earnings estimates.

Suncor Energy is one of Canada's largest integrated energy companies, operating in western Canada, east coast Canada, the United States, and the North Sea. The upstream portfolio includes bitumen, synthetic crude, and conventional crude, which helps to offset higher-cost oil sands production. Its web site is here Suncor Energy Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Empire Company Ltd (TSX-EMP.A, OTC-EMLAF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 10, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about AG Growth.... learn more on Tuesday, July 9, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Premium Brands Holdings Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumers. The stock price seems to be expensive, but the price has declined from over $120.00 to a current $91.80. Dividend Growth is increasing. See my spreadsheet on Premium Brands Holdings Corp.

I do not own this stock of Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF). I was looking for another stock to follow and I found this is one of the top stocks in TD Bank's Canadian Equity Fund.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the dividend growth is higher than in the past. The last 4 increases were over 10%. The last increase was in 2019 and it was for 10.5%. You can see from the chart below that dividends have grown higher over the past 5 years at 8.75 per year compared to 4.61% per year over the last 10 years.

Talk about dividends yields and growth. This stock used to be an income trust. As such it started to pay dividends in 2005. However, it became a corporation in 2009. At that time dividends went from monthly to quarterly payments. Dividends were flat until 2003 when modest increases started. Currently the dividend growth is in the moderate range and up from the previous low range.

The recent dividend yields are in the moderate range (2 to 4% ranges). The current dividend yield is 2.29%. The 5, 10 and historical median yields are 2.75, 1.21 and 7.07%. The reason the historical median yield is so high is that the company used to be an income trust.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently good. The DPR for EPS for 2018 is 61% with 5 year coverage at 83%. The reason the 5 year coverage is high is because the DPR for EPS was above 100% prior to 2016. The DPR for EPS for this year is expected to be 52% and with 5 year coverage at 67%. The DPR for CFPS is 36% with 5 year coverage at 41%.

Debt Ratios are good, The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.29. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.71 with a 5 year median of 2.00. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is 1.94 with 5 year median at 2.05. Leverage, and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are 2.97 and 1.54 respectively with 5 year ratios at 2.93 ad 1.50, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	8.75%	31.19%	26.99%	4.20%
2008	10	4.61%	32.81%	25.09%	7.72%
2003	15	3.53%	21.59%	15.52%	6.08%
1998	20		7.65%	5.81%	1.84%
1995	23		14.07%	11.60%	2.47%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.86, 32.20 and 40.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 22.70, 27.82 and 34.21. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.54, 15.32 and 18.11. The current P/E Ratio is 23.48 based on a stock price of $91.80 and 2019 EPS estimate of $3.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $45.55. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.41. 1.85 and 2.21. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.02 based on a stock price of $91.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.27. The current P/B Ratio 3.89 based on Book Value per Share of $795M, Book Value per Share of $23.58 and a stock price of $91.80. The current ratio is 71% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.07%. The current dividend yield is 2.29% based on dividends of $2.10 with a stock price if $91.80. The current dividend yield is some 67% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The current yield is also some 17% below the 5 year median yield and 61% below the 10 year median yield. So however, you look at this stock the dividend yield is relatively low against past years. However, this used to be an income trust company and as such would have very high dividend yields. However, this is a consumer staple stock and a lot of consumer staple stocks have yields under 1%. So, the current yield is not really out of line for this type of company.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.44. The current P/S Ratio is 0.85 based on Revenue estimate for 2019 of $3,632, Revenue per Share of $77.23 and a stock Price of $91.80. The current ratio is some 95% above the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that the stock price is probably expensive. The P/S Ratio test and the P/B Ratio test shows this stock as relatively expensive. We can dismiss the dividend yield test as the stock used to be an income trust. The P/E Ratio of 23.48 is relatively high. A P/B Ratio of 3.89 is a high one.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think this is a great company. I find the debt levels fine and they have no problem paying the dividends. However, I think that although it has come down in price, it is still expensive. On the other hand, it has provided great returns to its shareholders. See the chart above. For the 5 year capital gains return of 26.99% per year, P/E Ratio was 38.42. For the 10 year capital gains return of 25.09% the P/E Ratio was 6.64.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (6), Hold (2) and Sell (1). The consensus is a Buy, however, seeing a Sell recommendation is very unusual. The 12 month stock price consensus is $92.36. This implies a total return 2.90% with 0.61% from capital gains and 2.29% from dividends. A very low return for a Buy recommendation.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. The stock peaked in April over $120. They must some EPS estimates. Recently CPP has bought a stake in this company. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool thinks the company has a great story. A writer on Simply Wall Street says investors are attracted to the potential growth of this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says that although the debt is relatively high, cash flow can adequately cover it. Erica Schwartz on Dispatch Tribunal says that Royal Ban has raised the target price to $101.00 from $96.00.

Premium Brands Holdings Corp is engaged in specialty food manufacturing, premium food distribution and wholesale businesses with operations in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nevada, and Washington State. Its web site is here Premium Brands Holdings Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Suncor Energy Inc (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU) ... learn more on Monday, July 8, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Intact Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Stock is a bit pricey. They have a moderate dividend yield and moderate dividend growth. See my spreadsheet on Intact Financial Corp.

I do not own this stock of Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF). I am following this stock because in November 2011, the TD Bank put out a special report on the merits of dividend investing. At the end of the report they listed a number of Canadian stocks as Equity Yield ideas. This was one stock listed that I did not follow. This and Wajax are from TD Report on dividend investing.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they have been doing quite well lately. They are increasing the dividends at a higher rate than previously. The last 6 increases have been above 9% to 2018 but and the most recently one in was in 2019 was lower at 8.6%

The dividend yields from this stock are moderate (2 to 4% range). The current dividend yield is 2.51%, with 5, 10 and historical ones at 2.56%, 2.71% and 2.69%. The dividend growth is also moderate (8 to 14% ranges). The dividend growth over the past 5 years is at 9.73% per year. The last dividend increase was for 8.65 and it was in 2019.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for 2018 for EPS is 58% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 35% with 5 year coverage at 31%.

Debt Ratios are fine for a financial services stock. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap is 0.16. I calculate the Liquidity Ratio to be 1.90, but this is not an important ratio for a Financial Services stock. The Debt Ratio is 1.38 which is fine for a Financial Services stock. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 3.64 and 2.64 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 14 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	9.73%	10.31%	7.41%	2.90%
2008	10	8.49%	15.66%	12.12%	3.55%
2004	14	11.89%	12.09%	9.10%	2.99%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.00, 17.43 and 18.87. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.96, 17.31 and 18.66. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.90, 13.95 and 15.00. The current P/E Ratio is 18.47 based on a stock price of $122.81 and 2019 EPS estimate of $6.65. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $86.67. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.12, 1.29 and 1.39. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $122.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.93. The current P/B Ratio is 2.45 based on Book Value of $6,988M, Book Value per Share of $50.21 and a stock price of $122.81. The current ratio is some 27% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.98%. The current dividend yield is 2.48% based on Dividends f $3.04 and a stock price of $122.81. The current yield is 8% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.48. The current ratio is 1.69 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $10,130, Revenue per Share of $72.78 and a stock price of $122.81. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but it is on the high side. Most of the testing is showing the stock price as relatively reasonable but above the median. However, the P/B Ratio test is showing the stock as expensive and this should not be ignored.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a solid company. The increase in the dividend growth rate is a good sign. It maybe a bit pricey at the current time. Debt Ratios are fine and it has good Dividend Payout Ratios. It is a general insurance company so earnings can be more volatile than other financial, especially Life Insurance companies.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy 6) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price is $122.00. This implies a total return of 1.82% with a capital loss of 0.66% and dividends of $2.48% based on a current stock price of $122.81.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. It is liked but a couple of analysts thought it was expensive. Ryan Vanzo |on Motley Fool thinks this company is a long term buy and hold stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street says this company generally has a higher P/E than other similar companies.. Greg Meckbach on Canadian Underwriter talks about direct-to-consumer in the insurance market. A Gazette contributor on Goodwell Gazette talks about some rankings for this stock.

Intact Financial Corp is a property and casualty insurance company that provides written premiums in Canada. The company distributes insurance under the Intact Insurance brand through a network of brokers and a wholly owned subsidiary, BrokerLink, and directly to consumers through belairdirect. Its web site is here Intact Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Premium Brands Holdings Corp (TSX-PBH, OTC-PRBZF) ... learn more on Friday, July 5, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy July 2019.... learn more on Thursday, July 4, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Saputo Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price is probably reasonable. They have a low dividend yield with good Dividend Payout Ratios and very good debt ratios. See my spreadsheet on Saputo Inc .

I own this stock of Saputo Inc (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list and on the dividend lists that I followed. I bought this stock first in 2006 for my RRSP account. Because I am now taking money from my RRSP accounts, I have been selling this stock because of the low dividend. I still like this stock so I have been buying it in my TFSA.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the next generation has taken over running the company and Lino Saputo is still both Chairman and CEO. I prefer to have these roles split into two people. I think that they give too much out in stock options. You except the percentage of shares to be no greater than 0.50%. This company average over past 5 years is 0.73%.

The dividend yields have always been low (below 2%). The current dividend yield is 1.68%. The 5, 10 and historical yields are 1.52%, 1.63% and 1.57%. In the past, dividend increases were good (over 15%). However, they have slowed after the 2010. A lot of companies are having a slow recovery from the last recession.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good and low. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 34% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 21% with 5 year coverage at 19%.

Debt Ratios are all good. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is low and good at 0.11. The Liquidity Ratio is god at 1.62. The Debt Ratio is good high and god at 2.21. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.82 and 0.82 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 21 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	7.80%	12.04%	10.06%	1.98%
2008	10	19.18%	15.79%	13.43%	2.36%
2003	15	11.98%	13.20%	11.13%	2.07%
1998	20	16.67%	14.46%	12.43%	2.02%
1993	21	15.05%	21.19%	12.70%	8.49%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.07, 21.55 and 24.35. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.16, 20.61 and 22.69. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.82, 18.51 and 21.43. The current P/E Ratio is 23.20 based on a stock price of $39.20 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.69. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $22.98. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.57, 1.80 and 2.00. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.71 based on a stock price of $39.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.55. The current P/B Ratio is 2.82 based on a Book Vale of $5,421M, Book Value per Share of $13.89 and a stock price of $39.20. The current ratio is some 20% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.57%. The current dividend yield is 1.68% based on dividends of $0.66 and a stock price of $39.20. The current yield is some 7% above the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.21. The current P/S Ratio is 1.02 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $14,944M, Revenue per Share of $38.30 and a stock price of $39.20. The current ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is that the stock price is probably reasonable. It is showing from cheap to below the median with the P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, and dividend yield tests. The estimate for the EPS is expected to low in 2020 and this accounts for the expensive results for the P/E Ratio test.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a good company but it is currently having some problems. A lot of companies are finding that recovery from 2010 recession has been hard. The price is probably reasonable. I am retaining my shares because I am a long term investor and I believe I will still do well in the future with this stock. I have sold from my RIF as I sell the stocks with the lowest yields. However, I have shares in the TFSA and Trading account I will keep.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), Hold (5), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $42.44. This implies a total return of 9.95% with 8.27% from capital gains and 1.68% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There are some negative remarks because it has not done well in last 5 years. Mat Litalien on Motley Fool thinks the stock is in oversold territory. A Writer on Simply Wall Street determines that the CEO has an average pay packet. A Writer on Simply Wall Street says the P/E Ratio shows market optimism about this stock. An article from the Canadian Press on Times Colonist says the shares fell because of short fall in fourth quarterly earnings.

Saputo is a dairy processor and cheese producer that operates in Canada, the United States, Argentina, and Australia and sells products in more than 40 countries. It is the largest cheese manufacturer in and one of the top three cheese producers in the United States. The company's brands include Saputo, Armstrong, Frigo, and Stella. Its web site is here Saputo Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX-PKI, OTC-PKIUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) ... learn more on Wednesday, July 3, 2019 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks July 2019.... learn more on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.