Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. A little on the pricey side but not overly so. Dividends are taxed as interest so suitable for TFSA RRSP or RRIF accounts. See my spreadsheet on Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp.

I own this stock of Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF). I saw this on company on the Canadian Dividend All-Star List. It has just recently started to pay dividends. It has only been around since 2012 and has good dividends. It has just recently started to pay dividends and dividends are good but are taxed as interest. So, this stock should go into a TFSA, RRSP or RRIF account.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that shares are increasing rapidly with outstanding shares up by 11.5% and 21.9% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. It is therefore the per share values that count. For example Revenue is up by 19.7% and 27.3% per year over the past 5 and 8 years, but Revenue per Share is only up by 7.3% and 6.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years

The yield is good but growth is low. The current yield is 6.83%, with 5 and 8 year median yields at 7.22% and 7.16%. The dividend growth is low with 5 year growth at 4.1% per year. They just started paying dividends in 2013. However, they have paid special dividends each year since. The special dividends are not high, but sort of equivalent to one monthly dividend payment.

They are paying out 99% of the EPS if you include the special dividends paid. For 2019 they have not raised their dividends, but it is expected that they will still pay a special dividend in 2019. However, if you look at dividends paid in cash compared to net income, the percentage of payout is 86.7% with 5 year coverage at 88.3%.

The Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.32. The Liquidity Ratio is really high at 108.41 for 2018 as they have few current liabilities, but this ratio tends to be ignored for Financials such as this company. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.24. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.81 and 0.81.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 9 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	4.14%	11.11%	3.04%	8.07%
2009	8		7.52%	2.70%	4.82%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.95, 12.71 and 13.43. The 8 year corresponding Ratios are 11.78, 12.71and 13.43. The current P/E Ratio is 13.44 based on a stock price of $13.17 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive, but it is just in the expensive range.

I get a Graham Price of $15.28. The 8 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.80 and 0.85. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.86 based on a stock price of $13.17. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive, but it is just in the expensive range.

I get an 8 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.11. The current P/B Ratio is 1.24 based on Book Value of $387M, Book Value per Share of $10.59 and a stock price of $13.17. The current ratio is 11.9% above the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.16%. The current dividend yield is 6.83% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $13.17. The current yield is 4.6% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

The 8 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.89. The current ratio is 7.40 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $65.1M, Revenue per share of $1.78 and a stock price of $13.17. The current ratio is some 6.2% below the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable, and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is mostly that it is above the median and some just into the expensive range. The one analyst following this stock gives a recommendation of Hold. It may be a bit pricey at this time.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find one analyst following this stock and that analyst gives a Hold recommendation. The 12 month stock price given is $13.00. This implies a total return of 5.54% with a capital loss of 1.29% and dividend gains of 6.83%. This is based on a current stock price of $13.17.

This stock is not on Stock Chase. Brian Paradza of Motley Fool thinks this is a great stock as long as the real estate market remains stable and growing. Kevin Zeng on Simply Wall Street says the payout ratio is too high. However, not all companies are the same when looking at Dividend Payout Ratios. Edwin Gilmore on Bharatapress says Fundamental Research reaffirmed a “hold” rating on this stock. There is a press release on Market Watch about this company closing a recent public offering.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp is a non-banking finance company providing residential and commercial mortgages that lends funds in major urban centres in Canada where the stability and liquidity of real estate are high. Its web site is here Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Emera Inc. (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA) ... learn more on Monday, February 25, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Choice Properties REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. Price seems currently reasonable. The Weston family certainly see this as a good long term investment. See my spreadsheet on Choice Properties REIT.

I own this stock of Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF). I got this stock when CDN REIT was acquired by Choice Properties. Choice was originally a spin off from Loblaws. The Weston Family via George Weston Ltd now owns a big piece of it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this stock is relatively new with only 5 years of data as it was spun off form Loblaws in 2013. They stock has done fairly well so far in a short period.

REITs tend to have good yields and low growth. This REIT is not any different. The current yield is good at 5.52% with 5 year median at 5.79% and from inception at 5.57%. They have not done increases every year. They did increases in 2016 and 2017. There was no increase in 2018. The 5 year growth is low at 2.63% per year.

For REITs you look at Dividend Payout Ratios using Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The DPR for FFO for 2018 was 72% with 5 year coverage at 69%. The DPR for AFFO for 2018 was 89% with 5 year coverage at 86%. I think that these are fine.

The only Debt Ratio that I really like to the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio at 0.72. The Liquidity Ratio is really low at 0.22 where current assets cannot coverage current liabilities. However, if you add back in current portion of the long term debt and cash flow after distributions, you get a ratio of 1.80. So, the implication is that to pay current liabilities the company is depending on rolling over debt and cash flows. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.29 where I would prefer it at 1.50.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below. The total return over the past 5 years is satisfactory.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	2.63%	8.14%	1.83%	6.31%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO per Share Ratios are 13.79, 14.89 and 16.23. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 15.76 based on a stock price of $13.40 and AFFO estimate for 2019 of $0.85. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/FFO per Share Ratios are 11.23, 11.92 and 12.99. The current P/FFO Ratio is 12.97 based on a stock price of $13.40 and FFO estimate for 2019 of $1.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $16.80. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.79, 0.84 and 0.89. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.80 based on a stock price of $13.40. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

I get a 5 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.12. The current P/B Ratio is 1.07 based on a Book Value of 3,491M, Book Value per Share of $12.53 and a stock price of $13.40. The current P/B Ratio is 4.9% below the 5 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.57%. The current dividend yield is 5.52% based on dividends of $0.74 and a stock price of $13.40. The current yield is 0.85% below the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

The 5 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.77. The current P/S Ratio is 6.63 based on Revenue estimate for 2019 of $1,350, Revenue per Share of $2.02 and a stock price of $13.40. The current ratio is some 2.1% below the 5 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that all the tests show the price at reasonable, but some above and some below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Hold (8). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $13.53. This implies a total return of 6.49% with 0.97% from capital gains and 5.52% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. It is considered to be a defensive stock. Vishesh Raisinghani on Motley Fool says it has a great yield but is too concentrated in retail. Bruce Howe on Simply Wall Street talks about using FFO in various calculations for this REIT. A Herdon Staff Writer on Herdon Gazette says the Williams Percent Range is -11.70 which is in overbought territory.

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust invests in, manages, and develops retail and commercial properties across Canada. The company's portfolio primarily consists of shopping centres anchored by supermarkets, and stand-alone supermarkets. The properties are mostly located in Ontario and Quebec, followed by Alberta, Nova Scotia, British Columbia, and New Brunswick. Its web site is here Choice Properties REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... learn more on Friday, February 22, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Investing Now… learn more on Thursday, February 21, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Manulife Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Price is Price is probably cheap to reasonable. Life Insurance companies should do better in a rising rate environment. They did poorly in the very low interest rate environment and will do better as rates normalize whenever that should be. See my spreadsheet on Manulife Financial Corp.

I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). In May 2005, I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met my criteria.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the 5 and 10 year EPS growth does not tell the whole story about EPS growth. EPS growth looks to be over the past 5 and 10 years at 7.54% and 21.96%. However, looking at the 5 year running average we get growth of 19.78% over the past 5 years and negative growth over the past 10 years are 2.20%.

The 5 Year Running Average for 5 years looks at average growth for 5 years to 2013 compared to the average growth for the 5 years to 2018. After 2008 EPS was really low until 2013 when they had a good year. The 5 year running average for 5 years captures this fact.

The 5 Year Running Average for 10 years looks at the average growth for the 5 years to 2008 and compares that the average growth for the 5 years to 2018. The 10 year growth looks really good because exactly 10 years ago was a really bad year. However, prior to 2008 EPS was much better than after 2008. The 5 Year Running Average for 10 years captures this.

This insurance company was, as were all insurance companies, hit hard by the 2008 bear market and recession. An very low interest rate environment is bad for Life Insurance companies. In 2009 they cut their dividend by 50%. Things have been improving as they started to increase the dividends again in 2014. This year they will be back to the old dividend level of 2008. In 2008 was their highest level of dividend payments.

The current dividend yield is moderate as it is at 4.80%. The yield was in the low to moderate range until the 2008 problems. Of course, the stock price dropped because of 2008 and the yield moved up. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 3.48%, 3.51%and 2.84% respectively.

They can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2018 is 39% with 5 year coverage at 49%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 9% with 5 year coverage at 10%.

Since this is an life insurance company, you want assets to cover the contract liabilities. The coverage could be better as it was in 2018 at 0.99. You also want to look at contract liabilities compared to total debt and this ratio is fine at 0.50. I find the Liquidity Ratio low at 1.18, but mostly the Liquidity Ratio is ignored for this sort of financial. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.07 as you would want this to be at 1.04 or higher.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

The total return has been quite low for long term investors. I am a long term investor and my return has been low. However, I do expect this to improve in the future. I did not expect that it should take so long for interest rates to recover, but the thing is that these situations last longer than you ever image they will.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	11.84%	2.11%	-1.54%	3.65%
2008	10	-0.94%	2.52%	-0.71%	3.23%
2003	15	5.55%	2.84%	-0.51%	3.35%
1999	19	8.30%	8.38%	3.98%	4.40%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.82, 13.78 and 17.74. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 11.02, 13.76 and 16.80. The historical ratios are 11.37, 14.14 and 16.31. The current P/E Ratio is 7.95 based on a stock price of $20.82 and 2019 EPS estimate of $2.62. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $35.50. The 10 year low, median, and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 0.91 and 1.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.55 based on a stock price of 20.82. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.14. The current P/B Ratio is 0.97 based on Book Value of $41,142M, Book Value per Share of $21.38 and a stock price of $20.82. The current Ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.84%. The current yield is 4.80% based on dividends of $1.00 and a stock price of $20.82. The current yield is some 69% above the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.77. The current P/S Ratio is 0.83 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $49,199M, Revenue per Share of 24.96 and a stock price of $20.82. The current ratio is 8% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is mostly that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, you cannot ignore the P/S Ratio testing. It is revenue that pushes the ultimate earnings and cash flow. However, since this is a Life Insurance company Assets under Management also is the pusher of earnings and cash flow for the future. Revenue is not grown well, but AUM is. Price is probably cheap to reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (10) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $28.08. This would imply a total return of $39.67% with 4.80% from dividends and 34.87% from capital gains.

See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. They have mixed feelings. Christopher Liew of Motley Fool likes this stock. Liz Campbell on Simply Wall Street talks about the company’s P/E Ratio. The Canadian Press via CTV News says the company posted record earnings.. Christopher Katsarov on the Globe and Mail discusses an judgement the company is involved with.

Manulife is the largest of the three major Canadian life insurers by market capitalization, ahead of Sun Life and Great-West Life. It provides financial protection and wealth management products and services to individual and group customers in Canada, the United States, and Asia. Its web site is here Manulife Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 20, 2019 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I will write about My Budgeting… learn more on Tuesday, February 19, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

IGM Financial Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. The stock is cheap but no one seems to expect any change to the better in the near future. It has not increased its dividend since 2015 and there is no sign of a future increase, so I do not think I can still call it a dividend growth stock anymore. On the other hand, no one is suggesting that they will be cutting the dividend either. See my spreadsheet on IGM Financial Inc.

I do not own this stock of IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF). I originally bought this stock to replace AGF Management (TSX-AGF.B). IGM was known as a dividend growth stock and it was on a lot of lists of good stocks, including Mike Higgs' and Dividend Aristocrats. I sold this 2011 because I had Power Financial, of which this company is partially owned by and I wanted to rationalize my portfolio. So, I sold this stock and bought more of Power Financial. I purposely sold at a low point to reduce taxes and did a buy at a low price also.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the performance of this stock has been low to moderate for quite some time. For example, Revenue is up by 3.85% and 1.85% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is up by 4.82% and 2.72% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The difference between these growth rates is due to buybacks.

This stock used to be a dividend growth stock. It has had a hard time since the 2008 bear market with low to non-existent dividend growth. There has been no dividend increases since 2015 and analysts do not see any in the near future either

The current dividend yield is good but the yields used to be in the moderate range. The current dividend yield is 6.59% with 5, 10 and historical median yields at 5.58%, 5.20% and 3.43%.

They can still afford their dividends, but payout is on the high side. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2018 for EPS was 71% with 5 year coverage at 75%. It would probably need to be in the 50% range before the company raises dividends again. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 was a high at 59% with 5 year coverage at 48%. I would prefer to see this at 40% or less.

The debt ratios are fine, but I would like to see some ratios at better points. The long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good at 0.25. The Liquidity Ratio is good also at 1.92 for 2018 with 5 year median also at 1.92. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.42 with 5 year ratio at 1.44. I prefer this at 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are a bit high at 3.39 and 2.39 with 5 year medians at 2.86 and 1.86. I prefer these to be below 3.00 and 2.00 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

All stocks were down a lot by the end of December of 2018. However, it would appear that it has not made much for shareholders for a while.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.91%	-6.12%	-11.17%	5.05%
2008	10	1.18%	5.09%	-1.32%	6.41%
2003	15	5.63%	6.05%	-0.02%	6.06%
1998	20	9.30%	6.00%	0.81%	5.19%
1993	25	12.08%	9.68%	4.09%	5.59%
1990	28	11.76%	16.40%	8.46%	7.94%

So far, the stock is up 10% this year and this helps the total return for the last 5 years, but still total returns are really low for the past 15 years.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	0.91%	2.12%	-3.74%	5.86%
2008	10	1.18%	3.47%	-2.14%	5.62%
2003	15	5.63%	5.10%	-0.47%	5.57%
1998	20	9.30%	8.57%	2.56%	6.01%
1993	25	12.08%	12.28%	5.63%	6.65%
1990	29	11.76%	16.41%	8.52%	7.89%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.74, 12.96 and 15.17. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.13, 14.52 and 16.18. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.63, 17.42 and 18.20. The current P/E Ratio is 10.98 based on a stock price of $34.15 and 2019 EPS estimate of $3.11. This stock price testing suggests the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $35.96. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.11, 1.26 and 1.40. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.95 based on a stock price of $34.15. This stock price testing suggests the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.31. The current P/B Ratio is 1.85 based on Book Value of $4,452M, Book Value per Share of $18.48 and a stock price of $34.15. The current ratio is 20% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.43%. The current dividend yield is 6.59% based on dividends of $2.25 and a stock price of $34.15. The current yield is 92% above the median historical yield. This stock price testing suggests the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.02. The current P/S Ratio is 2.58 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $3,185M and Revenue per Share of $13.22 and a stock price of $34.15. The current ratio is some 36% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that all the tests are showing that the stock price testing suggests the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (4), Hold (3) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $36.75. This implies a total return of 14.20% with 7.61% from capital gains and 6.59% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. A few analysts site their high fees but most think it will do fine. Victoria Hetherington on Motley Fool thinks this might be a stock for your TFSA. Renee Allred on Simply Wall Street seems to miss the fact that this company is largely owned by Power Financial. IGM talks about their fourth quarterly results on Newswire Canada. Mary Kom on Fairfield Current talks about some analyst’s recommendations on this stock.

IGM Financial is the largest non-bank-affiliated asset manager in Canada. The firm is part of the Power Financial group of companies, which includes Great West Life, London Life, Canada Life, and Putnam Investments. IGM has two main operating divisions--Investors Group and Mackenzie Financial--that provide investment management products and services. Its web site is here IGM Financial Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Manulife Financial Corp. (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... learn more on Tuesday, February 19, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

ARC Resources Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Energy stock. The stock price is relatively cheap. The positives are cheap stock and insider buying, the negative is declining Revenue and Earnings. They cannot raise the dividends until the earnings are higher than the dividends. See my spreadsheet on ARC Resources Ltd.

I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed there is relatively a lot of insider buying with NIB at 0.16% where you might expect it around 0.01% to 0.02%. There has been NIB since I started to track this stock in 2014. However, there is lots of red on my spreadsheet as Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow have been declining.

This company used to be an income trust and therefore had very high yields in the past. They went over 20% at one point. This historical median yield is 9.50%, but since 2011 when the change to a corporation occurred, the median yield is much lower at 4.70%. The 5 and 10 year median yields are 4.06% and 5.01%. The current one is 6.20.%.

Most of the old income trust companies decreased their dividends when they became corporation. That is because I high rate of dividend payments, higher than the earnings, can be paid out under income trust. When the company became a corporation, they had to get their payout ratios in line with earnings. Often companies had time to do this because they had tax pools left to lower the taxes for a while after becoming corporations.

This company reduced their dividends by 50% in the 2008, 2009 time frame and then another 50% in 2016. When you look at dividend growth over the 22 years of this company, it is all negative as shown in the chart below.

They cannot afford their dividends, but the ratios are improving. The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS for 2018 was 100% with 5 year coverage at 175%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 was better at 26% with 5 year coverage at 36%. They still are showing DPR using FFO and giving a ratio of 26% with 5 year coverage at 36%.

The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 was good at 0.29. The Liquidity Ratios are good with the one for 2018 at 1.97 and 5 year median ratio also at 1.97. The Debt Ratios are good with the one for 2018 at 2.57 with 5 year median at 2.39. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are quite good also with the ones for 2018 at 1.64 and 0.64 respectively. The 5 year median ratios are 1.69 and 0.69 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

When this company was an income trust it has a very high dividend. Shareholders have only made money from the dividend payments.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-12.94%	-18.16%	-22.82%	4.66%
2008	10	-13.87%	-1.15%	-8.69%	7.54%
2003	15	-7.06%	10.40%	-3.66%	14.06%
1998	20	-3.41%	29.61%	1.43%	28.18%
1996	22	-4.41%	12.42%	-2.08%	14.49%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.95, 19.50 and 26.05. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.80, 23.40 and 27.00. The historical ones are 12.22, 14.65 and 16.47. The current P/E Ratio is 22.00 based on a stock price of $9.68 and a 2019 EPS estimate of $0.44. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $10.13. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.62 and 1.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.95 based on a stock price of $9.68. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.01. The current P/B Ratio is 0.93 based on a Book Value of $3,676M, Book Value per Share of $10.40 and a stock price of $9.68. The current P/B Ratio is some 54% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 9.50%. The current dividend yield is 6.20% based on a stock price of $9.68 and dividends of $0.60. The current dividend is some 35% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, this company used to be an income trust and income trust corporation have higher dividend yields than corporations. The median dividend yield since this company was a corporation is 4.70%. The current dividend yield of 6.20% is some 32% above this. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.03. The current P/S Ratio is 2.60 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $1,275M, Revenue per Share of $3.61 and a stock price of $9.68. The current ratio is some 47% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is showing that the stock price is relatively cheap. The P/E Ratios are rather high because the EPS has been very volatile and much more so that the stock price. This is not a good test. The other testing is showing that the stock price is cheap. On an absolute basis a P/GP Ratio below 1.00 is showing a cheap price as is a P/B Ratio under 1.00. Certainly, the P/S Ratio and P/B Ratio testing is solid.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (14) and Hold (1). The stock price consensus is $13.77. This implies a total return of 48.45% with 42.25% from capital gain and 6.20% from dividends based on a current stock price of $9.68.

See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Generally, they like the company and management, but one analyst feels that the dividend is not safe. Brian Pacampara on Motley Fool likes this company’s high dividend. Cameron Brookes on Simply Wall Street talks about the dividends not being well covered by earnings. . .

ARC Resources is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of conventional oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company produces light, medium, and heavy crude, condensate, NGLs, and natural gas. Its web site is here ARC Resources Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... learn more on Friday, February 15, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Ideal Retirement Budget learn more on Thursday, February 14, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Absolute Software Corporation

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech. Dividend increases have stopped and this is probably because lack of growth in Revenue. Revenue has grown only at 2.4% per year over the last 5 years. The P/S Ratio test does suggest that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. See my spreadsheet on Absolute Software Corporation.

I do not own this stock of Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF). The Motley Fool published an article by Matt DiLallo in December 2014 called The 10 Best Stocks in Canada. It is basically a list of the best-performing Canadian stocks of the past decade.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that their book value is still negative, but this is because of deferred revenue. They cannot afford their dividends if you look at their Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS. The DPR for CFPS is also a bit high. However, they do have a lot of cash. The financial year ends in June each year, so the last annual financial statements are dated June 30, 2018. They report in US$.

Even though they report in US$, they are paying dividends in CDN$. They started to pay dividends in 2013 and at first, they were increasing their dividends. The increases stopped last year when they were flat. The increases were at rate of 9.86% per year in CDN$ over the past 5 years.

The dividends are current moderate with a yield at 3.64%. The 5 year median yield is also moderate at 3.92%. The dividend growth is moderate at 9.86% per year.

Can they afford their dividends? is an interesting question. If you look at it from an earnings point of view, they paid out 320% of their earnings over the past 5 years. If you look at cash flow, they paid out 63% of their cash flow where it is generally it is best to pay out 40% for less of CFPS. However, they do have lots of cash on hand. However, with them making the dividend flat suggests that management feels that they have to moderate their dividend policy. The revenue is not growing much these days.

The Debt Ratios look awful, but things are not as bad as they seem. The Liquidity Ratio and Debt Ratios are really low at 0.61 and 0.63 for 2018. This basically means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities and that the assets cannot cover the liabilities. The thing is that Deferred Revenue is a large part of the liabilities at some 80% to 90% of the liabilities.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2018 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	9.86%	6.21%	2.24%	3.97%
2008	10		11.56%	8.87%	2.69%
2003	15		24.87%	22.25%	2.62%
2000	18		18.83%	16.98%	1.85%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2018 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	5.26%	1.04%	-2.66%	3.70%
2008	10		8.22%	5.55%	2.67%
2003	15		22.47%	19.76%	2.71%
2001	17		24.27%	21.76%	2.52%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.79, 13.95 and 16.11. The corresponding 10 year ratios are -1.34, -3.02 and -4.71. The corresponding historical ratios are -5.00, - 54 and -16.07. The problem with P/E Ratios is that until 2013, the company had no positive earnings. There were also negative earnings in 2017. The current P/E Ratio is 44.21 based on a stock price of $8.80 and 2019 ESP estimate of $0.20 CDN$ ($0.15 US$). It would appear that the stock price is relatively high as a P/E Ratio of 44.21 is relatively high. This would not be a good test at this time.

I cannot calculate a Graham Price. To be able to calculate a Graham Price you would need both a positive EPS and a positive Book Value. If I muck around a bit, I can come up with one of $2.69. On the same basis I get P/GP Ratios for the past 6 years at 2.39, 3.27 and 3.99. On this basis the current P/GP Ratio is 3.28 based on a current stock price of $8.80. This would suggest that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. It would be debatable how good this test is.

To get a real Price/Book Value Ratio, you really need to have a positive book value. This company has not had a positive book value since 2010. This test cannot be done.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.92% CDN$. Here historical is only 5 years. However, the current yield is 3.64% CDN$ based on a stock price of $8.80 CDN$ and dividends of $0.32 CDN$. The current yield is some 7.24% below the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.69 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 2.72 US$, based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $98 US$ and a stock price of $6.62 US$. The current P/S Ratio is 1% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the only really clean test is the P/S Ratio test. Since the 10 year median P/E, P/GP and P/B Ratios cannot really be established, says nothing good about this stock. However, what I can establish in other testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $9.50 CDN$ ($7.16 US$). This implies a total return of 11.61% CDN$ with 7.97% from capital gains and 3.64% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Some think it is or will be a takeover target. Karen Thomas on Motley Foolsays why she thinks this is a must have software company. Ben Rossbaum on Simply Wall Street looks at return on capital employed and finds it good. A story filed under Business Week in the Financial Post talks about one of the largest US school boards signing an agreement with Absolute Software.

Absolute Software Corp provides endpoint security and data risk management solutions for commercial, healthcare, education, and government customers. Its products and solutions include endpoint security, industry solutions, application resiliency, endpoint data discovery, professional services, and investigations. The company's products and solutions are powered by its patented persistence technology. It generates the majority of sales in North America. Its web site is here Absolute Software Corporation.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 13, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Banks and Ratios 2.... learn more on Tuesday, February 12, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian National Railway

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price is probably reasonable. There are stock buybacks, which I do not like. However, the buybacks are just under 3%, so not that high. See my spreadsheet on Canadian National Railway.

I have done well on this stock. I bought it in 2005 and 2009 for my trading account and both times below the median price. My total return is 16.68% with 1.94% from dividends and 14.74% from capital gains.

I own this stock of Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI). In 2005 I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met by criteria. This is a dividend growth company with a good record of dividend increases. I brought some more in 2009. In my RRSP account, I bought this stock in 2011 and sold in 2013. Reason for sale was to raise money in my RRSP account for future withdrawals. I was looking for something to sell with a low dividend yield.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the revenue per share growth was better than the revenue growth. This is because the company is buying back shares. Revenue over the past 5 and 10 years has grown at 6.25% and 5.38%. Revenue per Share has grown at 9.17% and 8.25%. The true growth are the first figures and the ones to pay attention to.

The dividend yield on this stock is low. The current yield is 1.96% with 5, 10 and historical median yields at 1.67%, 1.75% and 1.58%. The yield has not varied much over time, but has occasionally ventured into the 2% range.

Dividend growth has been in the good range (15% and over) most of the time except for the last 10 year period because growth dipped from 2008 to 2010 inclusive. Because the yield is over 1% and the growth is good, the yield has grown well on original price. The 5, 10, 15 and 20 year yield on original (median) price are 3.01%, 8.89%, 13.51% and 29.02%. This is why you want to buy a stock with a low yield and good growth. This is especially true if you are building a portfolio.

I think that they can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2018 for EPS is 31% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for 2018 for CFPS is 23% and the 5 year coverage is 20%.

Most of the Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is very low at 0.16. The Debt Ratio for 2018 is good at 1.75 with 5 year median at 1.74. This is a good ratio. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are normal for this sort of company at 2.34 and 1.34 respectively. The 5 year median is basically the same at 2.35 and 1.35.

The Liquidity Ratio is quite low at 0.78. However, if you added in cash flow after dividends the ratios is quite good at 2.09. This means that the company depends on cash flow to pay for current liabilities. This is typical for companies in certain sectors that have a steady cash flow.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	16.18%	12.70%	10.80%	1.90%
2008	10	14.74%	18.44%	16.27%	2.17%
2003	15	17.24%	16.24%	14.33%	1.91%
1998	20	16.33%	16.38%	14.57%	1.81%
1996	22	16.22%	17.10%	15.21%	1.90%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.01, 17.83 and 20.07. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 15.53, 15.45 and 17.52. The historical corresponding ratios are 12.00, 13.62 and 15.18. The current P/E Ratio is 17.54 based on a stock price of $109.79 and 2019 EPS estimate of $6.26. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $58.33. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.43, 1.63 and 1.82. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.88 based on a stock price of $109.79. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.78. The current P/B Ratio is 4.51 based on Book Value of $17641M, Book Value per Share of $24.32 and a stock price of $109.79. The current ratio is 19.5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.58%. The current dividend yield is 1.96% based on dividends of $2.15 and a stock price of $109.79. The current dividend is 24% above the historical one. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.79. The current P/S Ratio is 5.11 based on 2019 Revenue of $15,571M, Revenue per Share of $21.47 and a stock price of $109.79. The current ratio is 6.7% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable, but above the median.

With the testing results on P/E Ratio and P/GP Ratio tests showing the stock price as being expensive, the price is just inside the expensive range. The P/B Ratio tests has a stock price as just below the expensive range. The P/S shows it as reasonable but above the median and the Dividend Yield tests show the stock price as cheap. The stock price is probably not cheap, but it is probably reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (7) and Hold (14). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $112.73. This implies a total return of 4.64% with 2.68% from capital gains and 1.96% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Analysts seem to like this stock. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool thinks this is an attractive stock to buy. Hector Vargas on Simply Wall Street talks about CNR’s ROE. Linda Rogers on What’s on Thorold says analysts are 75% positive on this stock. Canadian Press via The Chronicle Herald says CN Rail infrastructure workers will get a 14% rise over 5 years.

Canadian National's railway spans Canada from coast to coast and extends through Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico. Its web site is here Canadian National Railway.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF) ... learn more on Monday, February 11, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Exco Technologies Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. A lot is changing in the manufacture of cars and it is hard to know what the outcome for a number of companies, including this one, will be. Price seems reasonable and below the median. See my spreadsheet on Exco Technologies Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that long term total return is rather mixed with the total return for the past 10 years being exceptional. The stock is already up 9% this year. The financial year ends in September each year, so the last financial year ended September 30, 2018.

They have only had dividends for the past 15 years. Dividend yield is in the low to moderate ranges and it has varied over time. The current dividend is 3.64% with 5, 10 and 15 year median yields at 1.95%, 3.06% and 1.97%. Dividend growth has been in the good range (15% and over) until recently. The most recent increase was late in 2018 (for the 2019 year) and was only at 5.9%.

I believe that they can afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2018 was 33% with 5 year coverage at 28%. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 was 22% with 5 year coverage at 19%.

I find the Debt Ratios very good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.05. The Liquidity Ratio, one of the most important ones, was 2.51 in 2018 with 5 year median at 2.26. The Debt Ratio for 2018 was 3.80 with 5 year coverage at 3.32. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 were 1.36 and 0.36.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	14.20%	4.52%	1.46%	3.07%
2008	10	17.37%	28.97%	23.10%	5.87%
2003	15	13.52%	4.25%	2.48%	1.76%
1998	20		8.34%	6.63%	1.71%
1993	25		6.37%	5.14%	1.23%
1992	26		8.79%	7.43%	1.35%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.40, 13.17 and 15.68. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.50, 10.03 and 12.31. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.40, 13.35 and 15.77. The current P/E Ratio is 9.24 based on a stock price of $9.89 and 2019 EPS estimate of 1.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $14.00. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.63, 0.75 and 0.63. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.71 based on a stock price of $9.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.28. The current P/B Ratio is 1.21 based on Book Value of $337M, Book Value per Share of $8.14 and a stock price of $9.89. The current ratio is 5% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.97%. The current dividend yield is 3.64% based on dividends of $0.36 and a stock price of $9.89. The current yield is some 84% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.80. The current P/S Ratio is 0.80. The current P/S Ratio is 0.78 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $527, Revenue per Share of $12.72 and a stock price of $9.89. The current ratio is some 3% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap to relatively reasonable and below the median. I did not do testing of the dividend yield against the 5 and 10 year dividends, because they have not been fooling around with the dividends. They started off flat and they have been increasing since 2007. However, the Dividend Payout Ratio has been increasing, but has fluctuated in the past and the dividend yield has fluctuated a lot. Also, the P/S Ratio cannot be ignored.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Hold. This is a small company so there are few analysts following it. The 12 month stock price consensus is $10.90. This implies a total return of $13.85 with 10.21% from capital gains and 3.64% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. There is nothing recent but remarks from 2017 note it is not currently doing well. Kris Knutson on Motley Fool thinks this is a small cap that should be on your radar. Kyle Sanford on Simply Wall Street says why he thinks this stock is undervalued.

Exco Technologies Ltd is a designer, developer, and manufacturer of dies, moulds, components and assemblies, and consumable equipment for the die-cast, extrusion, and automotive industries. Its web site is here Exco Technologies Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian National Railway (TSX-CNR, NYSE-CNI) ... learn more on Friday, February 8, 2019 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy February 2019.... learn more on February 07, 2019 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

AGF Management Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Financial. There is lots of insider buying, but there has been this before. Sometimes insider get it wrong. It may be a dividend paying company, but it is not growing its dividends, so I would not be interested. Few analysts are now covering this stock. See my spreadsheet on AGF Management Ltd.

I do not own this stock of AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF), but I used to. It used to be a great company. I held it too long after it got into difficulties. I had it from 2001 to 2008 and made a total return of 2.08% per year. I sold because I did not see that the stock would improve. It was raising dividends still but at the expense of DPR. In 2008 I was lucky that I sold before it crashed. It has yet to recover.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company had astonishingly bad total returns and dividend growth over the last 20 years. I noticed that the Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS has been coming down lately. Last year the DPR was 50% with 5 year coverage at 122%. This year it is 76% with 5 year coverage at 44%. DPR for CFPS is also declining but not quite enough. This Financial year ends in November each year, so the last financial year end was November 30, 2018.

There has not been any dividend growth for some time. See chart below. They decreased dividends by 70% in 2015 so this wiped out all increases going back almost 15 years (to around 2003). They used to have Low to moderate dividend yields (1% to 2% range), until 2008 when they moved up a lot. Currently the dividend is in the good range at 5.93%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividends are 6.86%, 6.90% and 3.07%.

To the question of can they afford their dividends, they can for now DPR for EPS at 35% with 5 year coverage at 76%. However, this DPR for EPS is expected to move back to 63% in 2019. The DPR for CFPS is still a bit high for 2018 at 54% with 5 year coverage also at 54%. I rather have this DPR for CFPS at 40% or less.

Debt Ratios are good at present. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio at 0.48 is fine. The Liquidity Ratio this year at 1.74 is fine, but past Liquidity Ratios were too low. The Debt Ratios for 2018 at 3.18 is very good and this ratio has always been very good. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2018 are good at 1.46 and 0.46 respectively. The 5 year medians are also good 1.50 and 0.50 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

Shareholders have not really been making much over the past 20 years and this is a long time.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	-21.59%	-13.00%	-18.34%	5.34%
2008	10	-10.31%	4.60%	-6.56%	11.16%
2003	15	0.54%	-0.89%	-8.24%	7.34%
1998	20	4.61%	2.88%	-4.30%	7.17%
1993	25	6.27%	10.47%	1.49%	8.98%
1991	27	6.16%	17.16%	5.25%	11.91%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.30, 10.73 and 13.16. The corresponding10 year ratios are 9.54, 12.56 and 16.16. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.21, 15.36 and 18.96. The current P/E Ratio is 10.35 based on a stock price of $5.38 and 2019 EPS estimate of $0.51. It appears that analysts expect EPS to drop from last years 0.92 and 2017 EPS of 0.64. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $11.94. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.55, 0.75 and 0.96. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.45 based on a stock price of $5.38. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.99. The current P/B Ratio is 0.43 based on Book Value of $972M, Book Value per share of $12.41 and a stock price of $5.38. The current P/B Ratio is some 56% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.07%. The current dividend yield is 5.95% based on Dividends of $0.32 and a stock price of $5.38. The current dividend yield is some 94% above the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

It is interesting that the 5 year and 10 year median dividend yields are higher than the current one. They are at 6.86% and 6.90%, respectively. So that are some 13% below the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. I did this testing because dividends are decreasing.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.94. The current P/S Ratio is 1.00 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $423M, Revenue per Share of $5.40 and a stock price of $5.38. The current ratio is 49% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that most test show the stock as being relatively cheap. For the P/B Ratio, that 10 year ratio is really low. When it is below 1.00, the stock price is below the potential breakup value of the company. However, I think that this company cheap for a reason.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $6.61. this implies a total return of 28.81% with 22.86% from capital gains and 5.95% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. The latest is a Don’t Buy. Will Ashworth on Motley Fool thinks it is a worthwhile buy under $6.00.. Sean Barnes on Simply Wall Street talks about this stock Beta. LNR Staff on Laken Norman Review says the company has a Piotroski F-Score of 6 where the score is from 0 (low) to 9 (high) for balance sheet strength.

AGF Management is a Canada-based asset manager with operations and investments in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Asia. Its web site is here AGF Management Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 06 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks February 2019.... learn more on Tuesday, February 5, 2019 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Square and the Tower by Niall Ferguson learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Shaw Communications Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Telecom. The stock price seems to be in a reasonable range. However, I would be concerned about the balance sheet, specially the Liquidity Ratio. See my spreadsheet on Shaw Communications Inc.

I do not own this stock of Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). I am following this stock because it was a stock on Investment Reporter’s list, an MPL Communications Publication.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed they have not been doing well lately and this is reflected in the fact that the dividends have gone flat. The last dividend increase was in 2015. There is again a lot of insider selling at 0.17% of market cap. Last year it was 0.21%. You expect this value to be in the 0.01% or 0.02% range. The financial year for this company ends in August each year. The last financial statement date is August 31, 2019.

Dividend growth slowed after 2013 and has been flat since 2016. Dividend growth has fluctuated in the past and has gone flat before. The growth in dividends have been quite volatile. The 5 and 10 year periods are low because of the current flat dividend. The last dividend increase occurred in 2015 and it was for 7.7%.

Currently the dividend yield is in the moderate range (2 to 4% range), but it has in the past been in the low range (under2%). The current dividend is 4.37%, with 5, 10 and historical medians at 4.23%, 4.23% and 1.26%.

Because 2018 was such a poor year, the current Dividend Payout Ratio is 1185%, but the 5 year coverage is a more appropriate measure at 72%. The DPR for EPS is expected to drop to 86% next year. Analysts, as they did last year, expect the company to restart increasing dividends. The DPR for CFPS for 2018 is 47%, which is a big high. The 5 year coverage is fine at 37%.

They have a vulnerability with a very low Liquidity Ratio. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2018 is 0.32. The Liquidity Ratios is low and has always been low. For 2018 it is 0.64. If you add in cash flow after dividends it is still low at 1.10. The 5 year median ratio is also 1.10. This is a vulnerability for the company.

The Debt Ratio is quite good at 1.70 with 5 year median also at 1.70. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are rather normal for this sort of company at 2.42 and 1.42 respectively. Their 5 year medians are also normal at 2.78 and 1.78.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 28 to the end of 2018. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See charts below.

The stock used to have a decent total return, but it has not been true for the past 5 and 10 years. The 10 year return is quite low. The 5 year return is not surprising as a lot of companies have not done well recently.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2013	5	3.56%	3.63%	-0.90%	4.52%
2008	10	5.33%	5.76%	1.35%	4.41%
2003	15	29.34%	10.66%	6.15%	4.50%
1998	20	23.46%	8.97%	5.80%	3.17%
1993	25	18.37%	12.43%	9.26%	3.17%
1990	28	16.25%	14.70%	11.34%	3.36%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.36, 15.53 and 17.68. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.71, 15.96 and 17.69. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.58, 16.45 and 17.80. The current P/E Ratio is 19.80 based on a stock price of $27.12 and 2019 EPS estimate of $1.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $18.70. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.21, 1.32 and 1.49. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.45 based on a stock price of $27.12. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.65. The current P/B Ratio is 2.39 based on a Book Value of $5775M, Book Value per Share of $11.35 and a stock price of $27.12. The current P/B Ratio is some 9.7% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.26%. The current dividend yield is 4.37% based on dividends of $1.185 and a stock price of $27.12. The current dividend is 247% above the 10 year yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

By the way the 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are a lot higher than the historical one with both at 4.23%. The current dividend is only 3.3% above these median dividend yields. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.38. The current P/S Ratio is 2.52 based on a stock price of $27.12, 2019 Revenue estimate of $5,478M and Revenue per Share at 10.77. The current ratio is some 5.7% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

I wonder about using the Dividend Yield test as yields have been in the 4% range since 2008, which is a long time. If you use the 10 year dividend yield median, you still get a reasonable price below the median. I do like the P/B Ratio test and that shows the price as reasonable and below the median also. However, the P/S is also good test and that show the price as reasonable but above the median. It would see like the price is in a reasonable range.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), Hold (4), Underperform (2), and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $30.03. This implies a total return of 15.10% with 4.37% from Dividends and 10.73% from capital gains.

See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. Some analyst like this stock and some do not. One is worried about the balance sheet. Nelson Smith on Motley Fool thinks you would be better off buying Telus. Peter Morris on Simply Wall Street is concerned about the Liquidity Ratio. Darrell McKinsey on Fairfield Current says this stock has a consensus rating of Buy. The Canadian Press on CBC News says Shaw has beaten analysts estimates for profit and revenue in its fall quarter.

Shaw Communications Inc is a cable TV company in western Canada, serving as one of the biggest providers of Internet, television, and landline telephone services in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northern Ontario. With its 2016 acquisition of Wind Mobile (subsequently rebranded Freedom Mobile), Shaw is also now a wireless service provider in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia--three of Canada's four largest provinces. Its web site is here Shaw Communications Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Valener Inc (TSX-VNR, OTC-VNRCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be AGF Management Ltd (TSX-AGF.B, OTC-AGFMF) ... learn more on Monday, February 4, 2019 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book A History of Canada in Ten Maps by Adam Shoalts learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.