Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Stock is relatively cheap. Yes I do know that TSX now puts this stock in the energy sector, but to be it is infrastructure so closer to a utility. There does not seem to be any good reason for this stock to have fallen so far. Are investing getting confused by the classification? See my spreadsheet on AltaGas Ltd.
I own this stock of AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF). When I bought this stock in 2009 it was on many dividend growth stock lists. In 2009, I saw that this stock also had good growth in Revenues, Earnings, Dividends, and Stock Prices over the last 5 and 10 years. The stock had a fairly strong balance sheet. I took a small position in this stock, and planned to wait and see how things go with this stock before buying more. I bought more in 2010 and 2012.
This company shows not only EPS, but normalized EPS (NEPS), Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). Earnings are normalized for after-tax amounts related to transaction costs related to acquisitions, development costs related to energy export projects, provisions on assets and on investments accounted for by the equity method, unrealized gain on risk management contracts, and loss on long-term investments.
If you look at EPS and NEPS the company cannot afford their dividends. It is only under FFO and AFFO that they can. The Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) for EPS for 2017 is 1170% with 5 year coverage of 262%. The DPR for NEPS is 177% with 5 year coverage of 153%. The DPR for FFO for 2017 is 59% with 5 year coverage at 52%. The DPR for AFFO is 57% with 5 year coverage at 58%. For EPS the DPR 5 year coverage has not been below 100% since 2007 and for NEPS the DPR 5 year coverage has not been below 100% since 2009. So this is a long standing situation.
Do not forget that EPS is rather a made up number and accounting is just as much art as it is science. On next Tuesday I am discussing this subject of accounting here.
The dividends on this stock are basically from good to high. The current dividend yield is 8.8% with 5, 10 and historical yields at 4.87%, 5.69 and 6.21%. The dividend growth used to be good, but is low for the last 10 years and moderate for the last 5 years. The 5, 10, 15 and 16 growth in dividends is at 8.68%, 0.23%, 14.54% and 17.96% per year.
The reason for the low increase for 10 years and higher increase by for 15 and 16 years is because this company became an income trust in 2004. When it did it raised the dividends by about 221%. Then in 2011 it switched back to a corporation and decreased dividends by around 39%. After the decrease in 2010 it began to raise dividends again.
The most recent increase occurred at the end of 2017 and the increase was for 4.3%. Analysts expect that this company will continue to raise the dividends. They also expect the yield to go up.
I have total returns going back some 18 years. The stock price hit a peak in 2014 and has been moving down ever since. All utilities have been moving lower lately. I look at this as a utility but TSX classifies it under energy. The total return for the past 5, 10, 15 and 18 years is 2.63%, 7.37%, 19.57% and 19.11% per year.
The portion of the total return attributed to capital loss for the past 5 years is 3.14%. The portion of the total return attributed to capital gains for years 10, 15 and 18 is 0.80%, 7.70% and 9.07%. The portion of the total return attributable to dividends for the past 5, 10, 15 and 18 years is 5.77%, 6.58%, 11.87% and 10.05%.
I made purchases of this stock in 2009, 2010 and 2012. My total return is 10.51% with 7.95% from dividends and 2.56% from capital gain. The dividends I have received had paid some 56.9% of the cost of my stock. For the stock I purchases in 2009, 2010 and 2010 I am making a yield of 13.8%, 12.1% and 7.2% on my original purchase price.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are 49.95, 60.72 and 71.49. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.24, 28.48 and 32.71. The historical ratios are 13.31, 16.05 and 18.80. The current P/E Ratio is 27.97 based on a stock price of $24.89 and 2018 EPS estimate of $0.89. Based on P/E Ratios of the past 5 and 10 years this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median to cheap.
The 5 year ratios are so high because when there was a drop out in earnings the stock price did not fall. For 2019 and 2020 the P/E Ratios are more reasonable at 18.30 and 16.48. The 2019 P/E Ratio of 18.30 is based on EPS earnings estimate for 2019 of $1.36 and a stock price of $24.89. The 2020 P/E Ratios of 16.48 is based on EPS earnings estimate for 2020 of $1.51 and a stock price of $24.89. These P/E Ratios are more reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $19.40. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.54 and 1.73. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.28 based on a stock price of $24.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.71. The current P/B Ratio is 1.32 based on Book Value of $3,296M, Book Value per Share $18.80 and a stock price of $24.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The historical dividend yield is 6.21%. The current dividend yield is 8.80% based on dividends of $2.19 and a stock price of $24.89. The current yield is some 42% higher than the historical one. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratios of 2.17. The current P/S Ratio is 1.17 based on 2019 Revenue estimate of $3,908M, Revenue per Share of $22.30 and a stock price of $24.89. The current P/S Ratio is some 46% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (3), Hold (7) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 months Stock price consensus is $29.36. This implies a total return of 26.76% with 8.80% from dividends and 17.96% from capital gains based on a current price of $24.89.
Kay Ng of Motley Fool thinks this stock is a buy but there is no reason to rush. Grace Strickland on Simply Wall Street thinks the stock is a bargain at the current price. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They like the company but hesitate to suggest a Buy recommendation.
AltaGas Ltd is a diversified energy infrastructure business operated collectively by its operating subsidiaries. The Company offers natural gas, power and regulated utilities and has three operating segments of Gas, Power and Utilities. Its web site is here AltaGas Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Melcor Developments Inc. (TSX-MRD, OTC-MODVF)... learn more on Monday, March 26, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Friday, March 23, 2018
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
TransCanada Corp
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. You would think with the recent drop in price that this stock's price would test as cheap, but it is not. It is basically reasonable but above the median. See my spreadsheet on TransCanada Corp.
I own this stock of TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP). I bought the stock in 2000 at an opportune time. The company had been cutting their dividend payments in order to re-organize and get the company into shape for long term profitability. This company's stock fell hard because of this. People who depend on dividends for their income can be an unforgiving lot and can get really upset at company when a trusted company cuts dividends.
I have 27 years of dividend data and they paid dividends in each year. They did decrease the dividends in 2000, but started to raise them again in 2001 and have increased their dividends every year since. I have made several purchases since 2000 and I have total return of 10.48% per year with 5.51% per year from capital gains and 4.97% per year from dividends.
Dividends are in the good range and the dividend increases are low. The current dividend yield is 4.94% with 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 3.93%, 4.06% and 4.28%. The dividend yield has sometimes been in the moderate range (2 and 3% range). The dividend growth over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 years is at 7.00%, 6.02%, 6.13%, 3.70%, 4.67% and 4.79% per year. For the stock I bought in 2000 my yield is 22.44% on my original cost.
In most years they have covered their dividends with earnings, but they had an earnings loss in 2015 and low earnings in 2016 where dividends were not covered. The 2017 Dividend Payout Ratio is 71.14% with 5 year coverage at 155.65%. The DPR for cash flow for 2017 is 39.08% with 5 year coverage at 34.95%. It is not uncommon for any stock to have a couple of bad earnings years.
Total Return over the years has been mostly quite good. I consider around 8% per year to be a good Total Return. The Total Return on this stock has been over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 years at 9.38%, 7.91%, 11.19%, 6.53%, 9.30% and 9.01% per year. The portion of this Total Return attributable to capital gain is 5.41%, 4.20%, 6.76%, 3.31%, 5.04% and 4.86% per year. The portion of this Total Return attributable to dividends is 3.98%, 3.70% , 4.42%, 3.22%, 4.25% and 4.15% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.18, 19.58 and 20.99. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.80, 19.10 and 20.74. The historical ratios are 12.31, 14.06 and 16.03. The current P/E Ratio is 16.08 based on a stock price of $53.07 and 2018 EPS estimate of $3.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
However the P/E Ratios for the last 5 and 10 years are rather high for a utility stock. The current one is 16.08 is probably moderate for such a stock. It is not a cheap P/E Ratio.
I get a Graham Price of $42.12. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.23, 1.38 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $53.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.00. The current P/B Ratio is 2.22 based on Book Value of $21.059M, Book Value per Share of $23.89 and a stock price of $53.07. The current P/B Ratio is some 11% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.40. The current P/S Ratio is 3.99 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $11,712M, Revenue per Share of $13.29 and a stock price of $53.07. The current P/S Ratio is some 17% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (8) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $69.45. This implies a total return of 36.07% with 5.20% from dividends and 30.86% from capital gains based on a current stock price of $53.07.
The company via The Canadian Press and CTV News advised that the recent U.S. tax ruling that eliminated a tax break for owners of certain interstate pipelines will have no material impact on its operations.. Jacob Donnelly of Motley Fool says why he likes this stock. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They mostly like it.
TransCanada Corp is an energy infrastructure company. Its business segments include, Natural Gas Pipelines, Liquid Pipelines and Energy. The company has pipeline and power generation assets in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Its web site is here TransCanada Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF)... learn more on Friday, March 23, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Bond Investments... learn more on Thursday, March 22, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP). I bought the stock in 2000 at an opportune time. The company had been cutting their dividend payments in order to re-organize and get the company into shape for long term profitability. This company's stock fell hard because of this. People who depend on dividends for their income can be an unforgiving lot and can get really upset at company when a trusted company cuts dividends.
I have 27 years of dividend data and they paid dividends in each year. They did decrease the dividends in 2000, but started to raise them again in 2001 and have increased their dividends every year since. I have made several purchases since 2000 and I have total return of 10.48% per year with 5.51% per year from capital gains and 4.97% per year from dividends.
Dividends are in the good range and the dividend increases are low. The current dividend yield is 4.94% with 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are 3.93%, 4.06% and 4.28%. The dividend yield has sometimes been in the moderate range (2 and 3% range). The dividend growth over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 years is at 7.00%, 6.02%, 6.13%, 3.70%, 4.67% and 4.79% per year. For the stock I bought in 2000 my yield is 22.44% on my original cost.
In most years they have covered their dividends with earnings, but they had an earnings loss in 2015 and low earnings in 2016 where dividends were not covered. The 2017 Dividend Payout Ratio is 71.14% with 5 year coverage at 155.65%. The DPR for cash flow for 2017 is 39.08% with 5 year coverage at 34.95%. It is not uncommon for any stock to have a couple of bad earnings years.
Total Return over the years has been mostly quite good. I consider around 8% per year to be a good Total Return. The Total Return on this stock has been over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 years at 9.38%, 7.91%, 11.19%, 6.53%, 9.30% and 9.01% per year. The portion of this Total Return attributable to capital gain is 5.41%, 4.20%, 6.76%, 3.31%, 5.04% and 4.86% per year. The portion of this Total Return attributable to dividends is 3.98%, 3.70% , 4.42%, 3.22%, 4.25% and 4.15% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.18, 19.58 and 20.99. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.80, 19.10 and 20.74. The historical ratios are 12.31, 14.06 and 16.03. The current P/E Ratio is 16.08 based on a stock price of $53.07 and 2018 EPS estimate of $3.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
However the P/E Ratios for the last 5 and 10 years are rather high for a utility stock. The current one is 16.08 is probably moderate for such a stock. It is not a cheap P/E Ratio.
I get a Graham Price of $42.12. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.23, 1.38 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $53.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.00. The current P/B Ratio is 2.22 based on Book Value of $21.059M, Book Value per Share of $23.89 and a stock price of $53.07. The current P/B Ratio is some 11% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.40. The current P/S Ratio is 3.99 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $11,712M, Revenue per Share of $13.29 and a stock price of $53.07. The current P/S Ratio is some 17% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (8) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $69.45. This implies a total return of 36.07% with 5.20% from dividends and 30.86% from capital gains based on a current stock price of $53.07.
The company via The Canadian Press and CTV News advised that the recent U.S. tax ruling that eliminated a tax break for owners of certain interstate pipelines will have no material impact on its operations.. Jacob Donnelly of Motley Fool says why he likes this stock. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They mostly like it.
TransCanada Corp is an energy infrastructure company. Its business segments include, Natural Gas Pipelines, Liquid Pipelines and Energy. The company has pipeline and power generation assets in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Its web site is here TransCanada Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be AltaGas Ltd (TSX-ALA, OTC-ATGFF)... learn more on Friday, March 23, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Bond Investments... learn more on Thursday, March 22, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Monday, March 19, 2018
TransAlta Corp
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Utility. This stock is cheap for a reason and for a utility the risk is probably unusually high. However, management does seem to be sorting out the company's problems. See my spreadsheet on TransAlta Corp.
I own this stock of TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC). I bought this stock in 1987. It was a utility stock and utility stocks were considered to be good investments. I sold some in 2000 as the stock price was below what I had paid for it. I bought some more in February 2009 because it was relatively cheap and it seemed to be recovering. I sold more in August 2012 as this company was doing poorly again.
The spreadsheet is full of red. This company has not done well recently. Also it must shut down its coal-fired power producers but they have worked out a deal with Alberta to help in this transition. A good thing is that in 2017 they reduced their debt by 20%.
The dividends have been declining since 2014. They cannot currently cover their dividends, especially since they had an earnings loss in 2017 and are expected to have an earnings loss again in 2018. Analysts expect that the dividend will not be covered by earnings until 2019.
The dividends are covered by Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). According to the company their FFO for 2017 is $2.97 and dividend coverage is 5.73% with 5 year coverage at 23.37%. More people now look at AFFO rather than FFO. The AFFO for 2017 is $0.97 and the coverage is 16.49% with 5 year coverage at 78.06%.
Long Term Total Returns are not great. I have total returns going back 30 years and until you hit 15 years, the total returns are negative. This is because the stock price has been fall from its high of just over $33.00 in 2007. This current price is $7.18 with a price of $7.45 at the end of 2017.
The total return loss for years 5, 10 years is at 7.96% and 9.07% per year. The total return for years 15, 20, 25 and 30 are 2.33%, 1.27%, 6.33% and 6.22% per year. You have these positive returns because of dividends. This is a reason to buy dividend stocks.
The portion of the Total Return attributable to capital loss for the years 5, 15, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years are 13.20%, 13.92%, 5.39%, 5.39%, 2.42% and 2.17% per year. The portion of the total return attributed to dividends for these years are 5.24%, 4.85%, 7.73%, 6.65%, 8.75% and 8.38% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are -10.53, -11.56 and -12.39. They are negative because of recent earnings losses. The 10 year ratios are better at 12.01, 15.04 and 18.07. The historical ratios are 14.88, 16.29 and 21.19. The current P/E Ratio is negative 143.60 based on a stock price of $7.18 and 2018 EPS estimate of an earnings loss of $0.05. The P/E Ratio for 2019 is $39.89 based on a stock price of $7.18 and EPS estimate for 2018 of $0.18. This is all nonsense and no bases to do any stock price testing.
Since this is a utility stock, I have Adjusted Funds from Operations information going back some 7 years. The Price/AFFO Ratio for 5 years are 7.16, 10.28 and 15.40. The 7 year values are 7.16, 10.28 and 13.83. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 6.03 based on 2018 AFFO estimate of $1.19 and a stock price $7.18. This stock price testing suggests the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $5.79. The 10 year low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 1.13, 1.30 and 1.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.24 based on a stock price of $7.18. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.66. The current P/B Ratio is 0.87 based on a Book Value of $2,384M, Book Value per Share of $8.28 and a stock price of $7.18. The current P/B Ratio is some 48% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Also the current P/B Ratio is below 1.00. That means that the potential breakup value of the company is higher than the market cap of this company or the stock price. This by itself suggests that the stock price is cheap.
Using a dividend yield test does not work well on stocks where the dividends have been decreasing. The historical dividend yield is 5.72% and the current dividend yield is 2.23%. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $7.18. The current dividend yield is some 51% below the historical one. The current dividend yield is also below the 5 and 10 year median dividend yields of 6.71% and 5.39%. Any testing with dividend yield is going to show a stock price that is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 1.70. The current P/S Ratio is 0.89 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $2,265M, Revenue per Share of $7.87 and a stock price of $7.18. The current P/S Ratio is some 46% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, (2), Hold (6) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $8.22. This implies a total return of 16.71% with 14.48% from capital gains and $2.23% from dividends.
Thomas Auclair on Simply Wall Street says not to buy this stock for its dividend, but it may be an interesting play otherwise. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool talks about this stock as a unloved stock for contrarians. The company provided fourth quarter information for Cision. They seem to be turning the company around. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stockchase. The most recent entry is November 2017 and most say positive things about the company.
TransAlta Corp is engaged in the production and sale of electric energy in Alberta, Canada. It also has an energy trading and marketing business as well as it owns transmission lines and coal mines. Its web site is here TransAlta Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP)... learn more on Wednesday, March 21, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Reviewing Stocks... learn more on Tuesday, March 20, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC). I bought this stock in 1987. It was a utility stock and utility stocks were considered to be good investments. I sold some in 2000 as the stock price was below what I had paid for it. I bought some more in February 2009 because it was relatively cheap and it seemed to be recovering. I sold more in August 2012 as this company was doing poorly again.
The spreadsheet is full of red. This company has not done well recently. Also it must shut down its coal-fired power producers but they have worked out a deal with Alberta to help in this transition. A good thing is that in 2017 they reduced their debt by 20%.
The dividends have been declining since 2014. They cannot currently cover their dividends, especially since they had an earnings loss in 2017 and are expected to have an earnings loss again in 2018. Analysts expect that the dividend will not be covered by earnings until 2019.
The dividends are covered by Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). According to the company their FFO for 2017 is $2.97 and dividend coverage is 5.73% with 5 year coverage at 23.37%. More people now look at AFFO rather than FFO. The AFFO for 2017 is $0.97 and the coverage is 16.49% with 5 year coverage at 78.06%.
Long Term Total Returns are not great. I have total returns going back 30 years and until you hit 15 years, the total returns are negative. This is because the stock price has been fall from its high of just over $33.00 in 2007. This current price is $7.18 with a price of $7.45 at the end of 2017.
The total return loss for years 5, 10 years is at 7.96% and 9.07% per year. The total return for years 15, 20, 25 and 30 are 2.33%, 1.27%, 6.33% and 6.22% per year. You have these positive returns because of dividends. This is a reason to buy dividend stocks.
The portion of the Total Return attributable to capital loss for the years 5, 15, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years are 13.20%, 13.92%, 5.39%, 5.39%, 2.42% and 2.17% per year. The portion of the total return attributed to dividends for these years are 5.24%, 4.85%, 7.73%, 6.65%, 8.75% and 8.38% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are -10.53, -11.56 and -12.39. They are negative because of recent earnings losses. The 10 year ratios are better at 12.01, 15.04 and 18.07. The historical ratios are 14.88, 16.29 and 21.19. The current P/E Ratio is negative 143.60 based on a stock price of $7.18 and 2018 EPS estimate of an earnings loss of $0.05. The P/E Ratio for 2019 is $39.89 based on a stock price of $7.18 and EPS estimate for 2018 of $0.18. This is all nonsense and no bases to do any stock price testing.
Since this is a utility stock, I have Adjusted Funds from Operations information going back some 7 years. The Price/AFFO Ratio for 5 years are 7.16, 10.28 and 15.40. The 7 year values are 7.16, 10.28 and 13.83. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 6.03 based on 2018 AFFO estimate of $1.19 and a stock price $7.18. This stock price testing suggests the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $5.79. The 10 year low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 1.13, 1.30 and 1.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.24 based on a stock price of $7.18. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.66. The current P/B Ratio is 0.87 based on a Book Value of $2,384M, Book Value per Share of $8.28 and a stock price of $7.18. The current P/B Ratio is some 48% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Also the current P/B Ratio is below 1.00. That means that the potential breakup value of the company is higher than the market cap of this company or the stock price. This by itself suggests that the stock price is cheap.
Using a dividend yield test does not work well on stocks where the dividends have been decreasing. The historical dividend yield is 5.72% and the current dividend yield is 2.23%. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $7.18. The current dividend yield is some 51% below the historical one. The current dividend yield is also below the 5 and 10 year median dividend yields of 6.71% and 5.39%. Any testing with dividend yield is going to show a stock price that is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 1.70. The current P/S Ratio is 0.89 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $2,265M, Revenue per Share of $7.87 and a stock price of $7.18. The current P/S Ratio is some 46% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, (2), Hold (6) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $8.22. This implies a total return of 16.71% with 14.48% from capital gains and $2.23% from dividends.
Thomas Auclair on Simply Wall Street says not to buy this stock for its dividend, but it may be an interesting play otherwise. Andrew Walker on Motley Fool talks about this stock as a unloved stock for contrarians. The company provided fourth quarter information for Cision. They seem to be turning the company around. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stockchase. The most recent entry is November 2017 and most say positive things about the company.
TransAlta Corp is engaged in the production and sale of electric energy in Alberta, Canada. It also has an energy trading and marketing business as well as it owns transmission lines and coal mines. Its web site is here TransAlta Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TransCanada Corp (TSX-TRP, NYSE-TRP)... learn more on Wednesday, March 21, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Reviewing Stocks... learn more on Tuesday, March 20, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Friday, March 16, 2018
Enbridge Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth utility. Not surprising that most testing shows the stock price as cheap. This is not surprise and stock price has been declining recently. A recent purchase has stressed the balance sheet. This is core stock hold for me. I will not be buying more because I own enough. I also will not be selling. See my spreadsheet on Enbridge Inc.
I own this stock of Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). I first bought this stock in 2005 and then bought more in 2008 and 2009. This stock was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats list and also on Mike Higgs' list of Canadian Dividend Growth stocks. Enbridge is considered to be a low risk stock.
The outstanding shares of this company were increased by 79% in 2017. This was mainly due to the merger with Spectra Energy Corp. The company's outstanding shares have increased by 16.06% and 9.08% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. When the outstanding shares are increasing you need to look at per share values to know what the real growth in the company is.
Dividends were usually in the moderate range (2 to 3%), but lately they have been in the good range (over 4%). The current dividend is 6.52%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 3.48%, 3.27% and 3.49% respectively. Price has been going down lately. Price and yield move in the opposite directions.
I have dividend information go back 27 years. The dividend growth over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 years are 16.38%, 14.65%, 13.11%, 11.68%, 9.49% and 8.76%. The last dividend increase was in 2018 and it was for 10%. Dividends increase in 2017 by 13.82% and so far in 2018 by 11.23%.
However, they cannot afford their current dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio is 146% with 5 year coverage of 165%. Analysts do not expect the dividends to be covered by EPS until around 2020. This can cause the company problems in the short term. The DPR ratio for CFPS is high for 2017 at 59%. The 5 year coverage is good at 36%. (For CFPS the preferred DPR ratio is 40% and lower.)
The Total Return for the periods of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 are 6.62%, 13.49%, 14.89%, 13.17%, 17.52% and 11.38%. The portion of this Total Return attributed to capital gain is 2.70%, 9.41%, 10.72%, 9.49%, 12.02% and 8.10%. The portion of this Total Return attributed to dividend is 3.92%, 4.08%, 4.17%, 3.68%, 5.50% and 3.28%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.67, 30.94 and 35.21. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 21.17, 25.57 and 29.96. The historical ratios are 17.73, 18.07 and 20.78. I find these quite high for a utility stock, especially the most recent ones. The current P/E Ratio is 17.38 based on a stock price of $41.18 and 2018 EPS estimate of $2.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $41.39. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.51, 1.82 and 2.13. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.99 based on a stock price of $41.18. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.95. The current P/B Ratio is 1.28 based on Book Value of $54,455M, Book Value per Share of $32.13 and a stock price of $41.18. The current P/B Ratio is some 56% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The historical median dividend yield is 3.49%. The current dividend yield is 6.52% based on dividends of $2.68 and a stock price of $41.18. The current yield is some 87% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 1.40. The current P/S Ratio is 1.48 based on 2018 Revenue of $47,300M, Revenue per Share of $27.91 and a stock price of $41.18. The current ratio is some 5% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (9) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $56.47. This implies a total return of 37.98% with 31.72% from capital gains and 6.26% from dividends based on a stock price of $42.87.
Jason Phillips of Motley Fool thinks now is the time to buy this stock. Daniel Acker of Bloomberg in the Globe and Mail talks about sell off and recovery due to after the U.S. eliminated a tax break for owners of certain interstate pipelines. Enbridge says it does not expect any material change to its financial guidance because of this. Sam Bishop on Simply Wall Street says analysts sees the company doing well over the next 3 years. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They mostly like this stock.
Enbridge Inc. serves the oil & gas industry. Its key activity involves gathering and transportation of crude oil and natural gas. Its web site is here Enbridge Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC)... learn more on Monday, March 19, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB). I first bought this stock in 2005 and then bought more in 2008 and 2009. This stock was on the Dividend Achievers, the Dividend Aristocrats list and also on Mike Higgs' list of Canadian Dividend Growth stocks. Enbridge is considered to be a low risk stock.
The outstanding shares of this company were increased by 79% in 2017. This was mainly due to the merger with Spectra Energy Corp. The company's outstanding shares have increased by 16.06% and 9.08% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. When the outstanding shares are increasing you need to look at per share values to know what the real growth in the company is.
Dividends were usually in the moderate range (2 to 3%), but lately they have been in the good range (over 4%). The current dividend is 6.52%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 3.48%, 3.27% and 3.49% respectively. Price has been going down lately. Price and yield move in the opposite directions.
I have dividend information go back 27 years. The dividend growth over the past 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 years are 16.38%, 14.65%, 13.11%, 11.68%, 9.49% and 8.76%. The last dividend increase was in 2018 and it was for 10%. Dividends increase in 2017 by 13.82% and so far in 2018 by 11.23%.
However, they cannot afford their current dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio is 146% with 5 year coverage of 165%. Analysts do not expect the dividends to be covered by EPS until around 2020. This can cause the company problems in the short term. The DPR ratio for CFPS is high for 2017 at 59%. The 5 year coverage is good at 36%. (For CFPS the preferred DPR ratio is 40% and lower.)
The Total Return for the periods of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 are 6.62%, 13.49%, 14.89%, 13.17%, 17.52% and 11.38%. The portion of this Total Return attributed to capital gain is 2.70%, 9.41%, 10.72%, 9.49%, 12.02% and 8.10%. The portion of this Total Return attributed to dividend is 3.92%, 4.08%, 4.17%, 3.68%, 5.50% and 3.28%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.67, 30.94 and 35.21. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 21.17, 25.57 and 29.96. The historical ratios are 17.73, 18.07 and 20.78. I find these quite high for a utility stock, especially the most recent ones. The current P/E Ratio is 17.38 based on a stock price of $41.18 and 2018 EPS estimate of $2.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $41.39. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.51, 1.82 and 2.13. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.99 based on a stock price of $41.18. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.95. The current P/B Ratio is 1.28 based on Book Value of $54,455M, Book Value per Share of $32.13 and a stock price of $41.18. The current P/B Ratio is some 56% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
The historical median dividend yield is 3.49%. The current dividend yield is 6.52% based on dividends of $2.68 and a stock price of $41.18. The current yield is some 87% above the historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 1.40. The current P/S Ratio is 1.48 based on 2018 Revenue of $47,300M, Revenue per Share of $27.91 and a stock price of $41.18. The current ratio is some 5% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (9) and Hold (6). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $56.47. This implies a total return of 37.98% with 31.72% from capital gains and 6.26% from dividends based on a stock price of $42.87.
Jason Phillips of Motley Fool thinks now is the time to buy this stock. Daniel Acker of Bloomberg in the Globe and Mail talks about sell off and recovery due to after the U.S. eliminated a tax break for owners of certain interstate pipelines. Enbridge says it does not expect any material change to its financial guidance because of this. Sam Bishop on Simply Wall Street says analysts sees the company doing well over the next 3 years. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They mostly like this stock.
Enbridge Inc. serves the oil & gas industry. Its key activity involves gathering and transportation of crude oil and natural gas. Its web site is here Enbridge Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be TransAlta Corp (TSX-TA, NSYE-TAC)... learn more on Monday, March 19, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Richelieu Hardware Ltd
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth consumer. This stock is testing as expensive on all my tests. Personally I would not buy a stock with a yield under 1%. However, this is still a very good company. See my spreadsheet on Richelieu Hardware Ltd.
I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommend by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2000, they are a rather small company. This stock would be considered to be a dividend paying growth stock. In 2009, I thought I would add to what I had in this stock.
You can see from all the green on the spreadsheet that this stock has done well on a number of things that I track. This stock is not only increasing it dividends but also buying back shares. Outstanding shares have declined by 1.5% and 1.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
I bought this stock for my trading account in 2009. To date I have a total return of 22.13% with 20.59% from capital gain and 1.54% from dividends. Although the dividend yield tends to be low on this stock, I bought it in 2009 the one year they did not raise their dividend with a yield of 1.74%. I am now earning 3.92% on my initial purchase money.
Dividend yields are low with the current dividend yield at 0.78% and the 5 year median at 0.93%. The historical median and 10 year median are better at 1.15% and 1.34% respectively. I waited to buy this stock until it had a dividend yield over 1%.
The dividends have been paid for 15 years and I have dividend growth for 5, 10 and 15 years. Dividend growth is at 7.23%, 9.29% and 12.92% per year over these periods. The last dividend increase was for 5.82% and this was in 2018. Dividend increases seem to be getting lower.
They can certainly afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 was 19.7% and the 5 year coverage is 20.7%. The DPR for CFPS is 16.4% with 5 year coverage of 17.4%.
Let's look at long term Total Return for this company. I have Total Return for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 24 year periods. The Total Return for these periods is 23.82%, 16.63%, 14.91%, 20.82% and 18.32%. The portion of this Total Return attributable to capital gains is 22.73%, 15.59%, 13.90%, 19.58% and 17.47% per year. The portion of this Total Return attributable to dividends is 1.10% %, 1.04%, 1.01%, 1.24% and 0.86% per year.
Do not forget in looking at this that dividends have only been paid for the past 15 years. However, dividends are low on this stock and have always been. I cannot see this changing.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.86, 21.64 and 24.41. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.21, 16.46 and 18.73. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.95, 14.71 and 17.18. It would seem the some of the stock price increase is coming from P/E Ratio increases. The current P/E Ratio is 23.81 based on 2018 EPS estimate of $1.29 and a stock price of $30.71. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $14.76. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.16, 1.36 and 1.56. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.08 based on a stock price of $30.71. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.55. The current P/B Ratio is 4.09 based on Book Value of $434M, Book Value per Share of $7.51 and a stock price of 30.71. The current P/B Ratios is some 61% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.15%. The current dividend yield is 0.78% based on dividends of $0.24 and a stock price of $30.71. The current yield is some 32% lower than this historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.30. The current P/S Ratios is 1.74 based on 2018 Revenue Estimate of $1022M, Revenue per Share of $17.68 and a stock price of $30.71. The current P/S Ratio is some 33% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (1) and Hold (1) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $36.00. This implies a total return of 18.01% with 17.23% from capital gains and 0.78% from dividends.
Joseph Holm on Simply Wall Street thinks that lately this company has not been doing as well as it peers. Nellie Frank on Frisco Fastball shows that this is not much analysts coverage for this stock. A Street Contributor on Wall Street Herald shows a number of scores for this company and a score of 51 for Value Composite One which shows that the company is neither over or under valued.
Richelieu Hardware Ltd distributes, imports & manufactures specialty hardware & complementary products. Its products include kitchen cabinet, glass hardware, decorative and functional panels, door & window components, and veneer sheets & edge banding. Its web site is here Richelieu Hardware Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB)... learn more on Friday, March 16, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Real Estate Stock... learn more on Thursday, March 15, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommend by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2000, they are a rather small company. This stock would be considered to be a dividend paying growth stock. In 2009, I thought I would add to what I had in this stock.
You can see from all the green on the spreadsheet that this stock has done well on a number of things that I track. This stock is not only increasing it dividends but also buying back shares. Outstanding shares have declined by 1.5% and 1.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
I bought this stock for my trading account in 2009. To date I have a total return of 22.13% with 20.59% from capital gain and 1.54% from dividends. Although the dividend yield tends to be low on this stock, I bought it in 2009 the one year they did not raise their dividend with a yield of 1.74%. I am now earning 3.92% on my initial purchase money.
Dividend yields are low with the current dividend yield at 0.78% and the 5 year median at 0.93%. The historical median and 10 year median are better at 1.15% and 1.34% respectively. I waited to buy this stock until it had a dividend yield over 1%.
The dividends have been paid for 15 years and I have dividend growth for 5, 10 and 15 years. Dividend growth is at 7.23%, 9.29% and 12.92% per year over these periods. The last dividend increase was for 5.82% and this was in 2018. Dividend increases seem to be getting lower.
They can certainly afford their dividends. The Dividend Payout Ratio for 2017 was 19.7% and the 5 year coverage is 20.7%. The DPR for CFPS is 16.4% with 5 year coverage of 17.4%.
Let's look at long term Total Return for this company. I have Total Return for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 24 year periods. The Total Return for these periods is 23.82%, 16.63%, 14.91%, 20.82% and 18.32%. The portion of this Total Return attributable to capital gains is 22.73%, 15.59%, 13.90%, 19.58% and 17.47% per year. The portion of this Total Return attributable to dividends is 1.10% %, 1.04%, 1.01%, 1.24% and 0.86% per year.
Do not forget in looking at this that dividends have only been paid for the past 15 years. However, dividends are low on this stock and have always been. I cannot see this changing.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.86, 21.64 and 24.41. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.21, 16.46 and 18.73. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.95, 14.71 and 17.18. It would seem the some of the stock price increase is coming from P/E Ratio increases. The current P/E Ratio is 23.81 based on 2018 EPS estimate of $1.29 and a stock price of $30.71. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $14.76. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.16, 1.36 and 1.56. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.08 based on a stock price of $30.71. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.55. The current P/B Ratio is 4.09 based on Book Value of $434M, Book Value per Share of $7.51 and a stock price of 30.71. The current P/B Ratios is some 61% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The historical median dividend yield is 1.15%. The current dividend yield is 0.78% based on dividends of $0.24 and a stock price of $30.71. The current yield is some 32% lower than this historical median yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.30. The current P/S Ratios is 1.74 based on 2018 Revenue Estimate of $1022M, Revenue per Share of $17.68 and a stock price of $30.71. The current P/S Ratio is some 33% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (1) and Hold (1) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $36.00. This implies a total return of 18.01% with 17.23% from capital gains and 0.78% from dividends.
Joseph Holm on Simply Wall Street thinks that lately this company has not been doing as well as it peers. Nellie Frank on Frisco Fastball shows that this is not much analysts coverage for this stock. A Street Contributor on Wall Street Herald shows a number of scores for this company and a score of 51 for Value Composite One which shows that the company is neither over or under valued.
Richelieu Hardware Ltd distributes, imports & manufactures specialty hardware & complementary products. Its products include kitchen cabinet, glass hardware, decorative and functional panels, door & window components, and veneer sheets & edge banding. Its web site is here Richelieu Hardware Ltd.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Enbridge Inc. (TSX-ENB, NYSE-ENB)... learn more on Friday, March 16, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Real Estate Stock... learn more on Thursday, March 15, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Monday, March 12, 2018
Goodfellow Inc.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Recovering Consumer stock. Price is probably relatively cheap to relative reasonable. The returned to profitability in the third quarter of last year. Debt Ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on Goodfellow Inc.
I own this stock of Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF). I started to look at this stock when I was searching for small cap stocks that paid dividends. It looked like an interesting stock. Goodfellow is a small cap stock that the Investor Reporter has written about a number of times.
Earnings over the last 4 quarters are loss of $0.63, loss of 0.07, earnings of $0.19 and earnings of $0.26. So they turned the earnings around in the quarter 3. I have lost 3.12% per year on my investment that I started in 2010. This is 19% decline in the price of the stock. However, I have lost just 5.1% on this investment. My total loss is lower because of dividends I received.
This stock has been paying dividends since 1996 and dividends were paid twice yearly. The first decrease in dividends occurred in 2015 of 22% and then another decrease of 14.3% in 2016 and then the dividends were suspended in 2017.
This company does have current good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.85 and the Debt Ratio is 2.25. Debt Ratios over 1.50 are good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.80 and 0.80. For these ratios ones under 2.00 and 1.00 are good ratios.
Last year they had bank indebtedness so that the Bank Debt/Market Cap Ratio was high at 1.22. This ratio is now in a good range of 0.74. They have reduced their Bank Debt in 2017 by 44.4%. Their Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is very good at 0.05 and the Goodwill Intangible/Market Cap Ratio is very good at 0.07.
The only long term period of loss for this stock is the 10 year period where the loss is 0.43% per year or loss of 6.26%. This is the total return. The capital loss was 3.89% per year. This is the beauty of dividend stocks. You never tend to lose money or not much money. The other periods are all positive.
The Total Return for the other periods of 5, 15, 20 and 21 are 3.25%, 9.86%, 7.67 and 11.61% per year. There was a capital loss of 0.02% for the 5 year period. For the years of 15, 20 and 21 the capital gain is 2.48%, 2.13% and 4.55%. The portion of the Total Return for periods of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 21 are 3.27%, 3.46%, 7.38%, 5.54% and 7.06%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.26, 10.02 and 10.78. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 7.35, 10.61 and 11.49. The historical ratios are 7.01, 8.11 and 9.11. The current P/E Ratio is 18.11 based on a current price of $8.15 and last two quarterly earnings of $0.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $11.41. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.52, 0.59 and 0.65. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.71 based on a stock price of $8.15. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.67. The current P/B Ratio is 0.63 based on Book Value of $109M, Book Value per Share of $12.86 and a stock price of $8.15. The current P/B Ratio is some 5% lower than the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
Also when a stock is selling with a P/B Ratio below 1.00 it means that the stock is selling below its theoretical breakup price. This suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 0.16. The current P/S Ratio is 0.13 based on the last 12 months of Revenue of $523.7M, Revenue per Share of $61.56 and a stock price of $8.15. The current P/S Ratio is some 16.5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
There are no analysts' recommendations.
This company announces its 4 quarter results on Global News Wire. Courier Staff Writer on Collins Courier says that this stock has a Williams Percent Range of -29.07 which means it is nether overbought or oversold, but it is closer to overbought. A MENAFN Editorial via Global News Wire talks about the rise of commercial end-use of wood and laminate floorings.
Goodfellow Inc is engaged in the re-manufacturing, distribution and brokerage of lumber and wood products. Its products include decking, flooring, lumber, insulation, roofing, and among others. Its web site is here Goodfellow Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF)... learn more on Wednesday, March 14, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about My Dividend Goals... learn more on Tuesday, March 13, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF). I started to look at this stock when I was searching for small cap stocks that paid dividends. It looked like an interesting stock. Goodfellow is a small cap stock that the Investor Reporter has written about a number of times.
Earnings over the last 4 quarters are loss of $0.63, loss of 0.07, earnings of $0.19 and earnings of $0.26. So they turned the earnings around in the quarter 3. I have lost 3.12% per year on my investment that I started in 2010. This is 19% decline in the price of the stock. However, I have lost just 5.1% on this investment. My total loss is lower because of dividends I received.
This stock has been paying dividends since 1996 and dividends were paid twice yearly. The first decrease in dividends occurred in 2015 of 22% and then another decrease of 14.3% in 2016 and then the dividends were suspended in 2017.
This company does have current good debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.85 and the Debt Ratio is 2.25. Debt Ratios over 1.50 are good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.80 and 0.80. For these ratios ones under 2.00 and 1.00 are good ratios.
Last year they had bank indebtedness so that the Bank Debt/Market Cap Ratio was high at 1.22. This ratio is now in a good range of 0.74. They have reduced their Bank Debt in 2017 by 44.4%. Their Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is very good at 0.05 and the Goodwill Intangible/Market Cap Ratio is very good at 0.07.
The only long term period of loss for this stock is the 10 year period where the loss is 0.43% per year or loss of 6.26%. This is the total return. The capital loss was 3.89% per year. This is the beauty of dividend stocks. You never tend to lose money or not much money. The other periods are all positive.
The Total Return for the other periods of 5, 15, 20 and 21 are 3.25%, 9.86%, 7.67 and 11.61% per year. There was a capital loss of 0.02% for the 5 year period. For the years of 15, 20 and 21 the capital gain is 2.48%, 2.13% and 4.55%. The portion of the Total Return for periods of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 21 are 3.27%, 3.46%, 7.38%, 5.54% and 7.06%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.26, 10.02 and 10.78. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 7.35, 10.61 and 11.49. The historical ratios are 7.01, 8.11 and 9.11. The current P/E Ratio is 18.11 based on a current price of $8.15 and last two quarterly earnings of $0.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham Price of $11.41. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.52, 0.59 and 0.65. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.71 based on a stock price of $8.15. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.67. The current P/B Ratio is 0.63 based on Book Value of $109M, Book Value per Share of $12.86 and a stock price of $8.15. The current P/B Ratio is some 5% lower than the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
Also when a stock is selling with a P/B Ratio below 1.00 it means that the stock is selling below its theoretical breakup price. This suggests that the stock price is cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 0.16. The current P/S Ratio is 0.13 based on the last 12 months of Revenue of $523.7M, Revenue per Share of $61.56 and a stock price of $8.15. The current P/S Ratio is some 16.5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
There are no analysts' recommendations.
This company announces its 4 quarter results on Global News Wire. Courier Staff Writer on Collins Courier says that this stock has a Williams Percent Range of -29.07 which means it is nether overbought or oversold, but it is closer to overbought. A MENAFN Editorial via Global News Wire talks about the rise of commercial end-use of wood and laminate floorings.
Goodfellow Inc is engaged in the re-manufacturing, distribution and brokerage of lumber and wood products. Its products include decking, flooring, lumber, insulation, roofing, and among others. Its web site is here Goodfellow Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF)... learn more on Wednesday, March 14, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about My Dividend Goals... learn more on Tuesday, March 13, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Friday, March 9, 2018
Canadian Tire Corp
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. On a number of tests this stock price is coming up expensive. This is hardly surprising since the stock have been on an upward climb since end of 2008. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Tire Corp.
I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF). In 2000 when I first bought this stock, it was on the Investment Reporter's list of conservative Canadian stocks. I bought stock for my trading account in 2009 because I have done well with it in my Pension Account and it was a consumer stock.
A notable item is that the Voting Common Shares are worth a lot more than the Non-Voting Class A shares. Both are traded on the TSX, but there is little trading of the Common Shares. The Common Shares are currently worth $254.50, which is some 47.82% higher than the Class A Shares at $172.17.
I have done quite well with this stock. I bought it first in 2000, then more in 2009, 2010 and then sold some in 2014. The reason for the sale was because I had to raise money in a RIF account to have cash on hand for withdrawal purposes. I have made a Total Return of 14.34% per year with 12.78% per year from capital gains and 1.56% per year from dividends.
It is interesting that dividend growth is going up on this stock. Dividend growth for 25 and 27 years is under 8% at 7.77% and 7.38% per year. Dividend growth for 5, 10, 15 and 20 years is over 8% at 16.72%, 13.39%, 13.29% and 9.81% per year.
Dividend yield on this stock is from low to moderate. The current dividend is moderate at 2.09%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low at 1.70%, 1.71% and 1.69%. This is probably because the company just raised their dividends by some 38.5%.
Total Return for the durations of 5 to 27 are all good and that means that they are 8% or higher. The 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 Total Returns are 20.82%, 9.57%, 12.89%, 9.88%, 11.60% and 8.53% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is 18.76%, 8.25%, 11.40%, 8.68%, 10.04% and 7.37%. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is 2.06%%, 1.32%%, 1.49%, 1.20%, 1.56% and 1.15%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.35, 14.27 and 15.67. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.00, 12.07, and 14.70. The historical ratios are 11.23, 13.63 and 15.67. The current P/E Ratio is 14.72 based on a stock price of $172.17 and 2018 EPS estimate of $11.70. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $137.14. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 0.83 and 1.04. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $172.17. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.28. The current P/B Ratio is 2.41 based on Book Value of $5,574M, Book Value per Share of $71.45 and a stock price of $ 172.17. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.69% with the 5 and 10 year median dividend yields at 1.70% and 1.71% respectively. The current dividend yield is 2.09% based on dividends of $3.60 and a stock price of $172.17. The current dividend yield is some 24% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, do not forget that the company just raised the dividend by 38.5%. This is a big raise.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 0.56. The current P/S Ratio is 0.83 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $13,873M, Revenue per Share of $208.65 and a stock price of $172.17. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (10) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $192.17. This implies a total return of 13.71% with 11.62% from capital gains and 2.09% from dividends based on a current price of $172.17.
A DR Contributor on Danvers Record says this company has a Williams Percent Range of -42.48. This means that it is neither overbought nor oversold. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool says why you should buy this stock. The Canadian Press on BNN talk about the company eyeing more brand acquisitions. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Mostly the analysts are positive.
Canadian Tire Corp Ltd operates a nationwide store network that sells home goods, sporting equipment, apparel, footwear, automotive parts and accessories. Its stores are branded under the name Mark's, Sport Chek, Atmosphere, and PartSource monikers. Its web site is here Canadian Tire Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was H & R Real Estate Trust)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF)... learn more on Monday, March 12, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF). In 2000 when I first bought this stock, it was on the Investment Reporter's list of conservative Canadian stocks. I bought stock for my trading account in 2009 because I have done well with it in my Pension Account and it was a consumer stock.
A notable item is that the Voting Common Shares are worth a lot more than the Non-Voting Class A shares. Both are traded on the TSX, but there is little trading of the Common Shares. The Common Shares are currently worth $254.50, which is some 47.82% higher than the Class A Shares at $172.17.
I have done quite well with this stock. I bought it first in 2000, then more in 2009, 2010 and then sold some in 2014. The reason for the sale was because I had to raise money in a RIF account to have cash on hand for withdrawal purposes. I have made a Total Return of 14.34% per year with 12.78% per year from capital gains and 1.56% per year from dividends.
It is interesting that dividend growth is going up on this stock. Dividend growth for 25 and 27 years is under 8% at 7.77% and 7.38% per year. Dividend growth for 5, 10, 15 and 20 years is over 8% at 16.72%, 13.39%, 13.29% and 9.81% per year.
Dividend yield on this stock is from low to moderate. The current dividend is moderate at 2.09%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low at 1.70%, 1.71% and 1.69%. This is probably because the company just raised their dividends by some 38.5%.
Total Return for the durations of 5 to 27 are all good and that means that they are 8% or higher. The 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 27 Total Returns are 20.82%, 9.57%, 12.89%, 9.88%, 11.60% and 8.53% per year. The portion of this return attributable to capital gains is 18.76%, 8.25%, 11.40%, 8.68%, 10.04% and 7.37%. The portion of this return attributable to dividends is 2.06%%, 1.32%%, 1.49%, 1.20%, 1.56% and 1.15%.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.35, 14.27 and 15.67. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.00, 12.07, and 14.70. The historical ratios are 11.23, 13.63 and 15.67. The current P/E Ratio is 14.72 based on a stock price of $172.17 and 2018 EPS estimate of $11.70. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $137.14. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 0.83 and 1.04. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $172.17. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.28. The current P/B Ratio is 2.41 based on Book Value of $5,574M, Book Value per Share of $71.45 and a stock price of $ 172.17. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.69% with the 5 and 10 year median dividend yields at 1.70% and 1.71% respectively. The current dividend yield is 2.09% based on dividends of $3.60 and a stock price of $172.17. The current dividend yield is some 24% higher than the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, do not forget that the company just raised the dividend by 38.5%. This is a big raise.
I get a 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 0.56. The current P/S Ratio is 0.83 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $13,873M, Revenue per Share of $208.65 and a stock price of $172.17. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (10) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $192.17. This implies a total return of 13.71% with 11.62% from capital gains and 2.09% from dividends based on a current price of $172.17.
A DR Contributor on Danvers Record says this company has a Williams Percent Range of -42.48. This means that it is neither overbought nor oversold. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool says why you should buy this stock. The Canadian Press on BNN talk about the company eyeing more brand acquisitions. See what analysts are saying about this company on Stock Chase. Mostly the analysts are positive.
Canadian Tire Corp Ltd operates a nationwide store network that sells home goods, sporting equipment, apparel, footwear, automotive parts and accessories. Its stores are branded under the name Mark's, Sport Chek, Atmosphere, and PartSource monikers. Its web site is here Canadian Tire Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was H & R Real Estate Trust)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Goodfellow Inc. (TSX-GDL, OTC-GFELF)... learn more on Monday, March 12, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
H & R Real Estate Trust
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Canadian REIT. The stock price seems to go from cheap to reasonable and below the median. The outstanding shares have grown so to see growth you have to look at pre share growth. Dividends have not grown much lately. See my spreadsheet on H & R Real Estate Trust.
I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF). Before I started blogging, I was following a number of REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.
Outstanding shares have grown steadily with increase of 8.4% and 8.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This makes the per share values the one to show growth. It can make a difference. The growth in Revenue over the past 5 and 10 years is at 6.9% and 7.2% per year. Revenue per Share is down by 1.3% and 1.2% over the same time periods.
There were dividend increases until 2013, then they paused for two years and resumed in 2017, but there has been none since. There was also a 50% decrease in dividends in 2009. So the growth in dividends is lower than inflation for durations of 10 and 15 years. The growth in dividends for the past 5, 10, 15 and 10 years is at 3.27%, 0.07%, 0.94% and 3.60%. You want dividend growth at or above the rate of inflation. Years 5 and 20 are that.
The dividend yield is good with the current dividend yield at 6.91%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also good at 6.05%, 6.01% and 6.46%. Analysts do not seem to expect any dividend growth over the next couple of years.
People who have owned this stock for 20 years have done better than those that have owned it for 5 to 15 years. The lowest total return is for 5 years. The total return for 5, 10, 15 and 20 years is at 3.51%, 6.43%, 10.90% and 12.09%. The portion of this total return attributable to distributions is at 5.89%, 5.69%, 7.71%, and 8.65%. Over the past 5 years there is a capital loss of 2.38%. For other years of 10, 15 and 20 years there is capital gain of 0.74, 3.18 and 3.44%. You would expect distributions to be higher than capital gains, but it would be reasonable to expect capital gains to be in the 3% range.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.51, 16.71 and 18.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.54, 15.96 and 18.21. The historical ratios are 11.33, 13.30 and 14.46. The current P/E Ratio is 13.23 based on a current stock price of $19.98 and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
Since this is a REIT, I also look at the Price/FFO Ratios. The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 11.06, 11.88 and 12.83. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.16, 11.98 and 13.01. The current P/FFO Ratio is 10.86 based on a stock price of $19.98 and 2018 FFO estimate of $1.84. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $31.94. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.70 and 0.73. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $19.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.02. The current P/B Ratio is 0.81 based on Book Value of $7180M, Book Value per Share of $24.65 and a stock price of $19.98. The current P/B Ratio is some 12.5% lower than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The historical median dividend yield is 6.46%. The current dividend yield is 6.91% based on dividends of $1.38 and a stock price of $19.98. The current dividend yield is some 6.9% above the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.16. The current P/S Ratio is 4.77 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $1220, Revenue per Share of $4.19 and a stock price of $19.98. The current P/S Ratio is some 7.6% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (6) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.92. This implies a total return of 26.63% with 19.72% from capital gains and 6.91% from dividends based on a current price of 19.98.
H&R announces on Cision the suspension of Distribution Reinvestment Plan. They basically said they have enough capital. H&R announces on Cision their fourth quarter results and how they reorganizing. Rob Logan on Ledger Gazette talks about some recent analysts' recommendations. See what analysts' are saying about this stock on Stock Chase.
H&R Real Estate Investment Trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. It owns, operates and develops commercial and residential properties across Canada and in the United States. Its web site is here H & R Real Estate Trust.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF)... learn more on March 9, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy March 2018... learn more on March 8, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF). Before I started blogging, I was following a number of REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.
Outstanding shares have grown steadily with increase of 8.4% and 8.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This makes the per share values the one to show growth. It can make a difference. The growth in Revenue over the past 5 and 10 years is at 6.9% and 7.2% per year. Revenue per Share is down by 1.3% and 1.2% over the same time periods.
There were dividend increases until 2013, then they paused for two years and resumed in 2017, but there has been none since. There was also a 50% decrease in dividends in 2009. So the growth in dividends is lower than inflation for durations of 10 and 15 years. The growth in dividends for the past 5, 10, 15 and 10 years is at 3.27%, 0.07%, 0.94% and 3.60%. You want dividend growth at or above the rate of inflation. Years 5 and 20 are that.
The dividend yield is good with the current dividend yield at 6.91%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also good at 6.05%, 6.01% and 6.46%. Analysts do not seem to expect any dividend growth over the next couple of years.
People who have owned this stock for 20 years have done better than those that have owned it for 5 to 15 years. The lowest total return is for 5 years. The total return for 5, 10, 15 and 20 years is at 3.51%, 6.43%, 10.90% and 12.09%. The portion of this total return attributable to distributions is at 5.89%, 5.69%, 7.71%, and 8.65%. Over the past 5 years there is a capital loss of 2.38%. For other years of 10, 15 and 20 years there is capital gain of 0.74, 3.18 and 3.44%. You would expect distributions to be higher than capital gains, but it would be reasonable to expect capital gains to be in the 3% range.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.51, 16.71 and 18.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.54, 15.96 and 18.21. The historical ratios are 11.33, 13.30 and 14.46. The current P/E Ratio is 13.23 based on a current stock price of $19.98 and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
Since this is a REIT, I also look at the Price/FFO Ratios. The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 11.06, 11.88 and 12.83. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.16, 11.98 and 13.01. The current P/FFO Ratio is 10.86 based on a stock price of $19.98 and 2018 FFO estimate of $1.84. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $31.94. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.70 and 0.73. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $19.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.02. The current P/B Ratio is 0.81 based on Book Value of $7180M, Book Value per Share of $24.65 and a stock price of $19.98. The current P/B Ratio is some 12.5% lower than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The historical median dividend yield is 6.46%. The current dividend yield is 6.91% based on dividends of $1.38 and a stock price of $19.98. The current dividend yield is some 6.9% above the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.16. The current P/S Ratio is 4.77 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $1220, Revenue per Share of $4.19 and a stock price of $19.98. The current P/S Ratio is some 7.6% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (6) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.92. This implies a total return of 26.63% with 19.72% from capital gains and 6.91% from dividends based on a current price of 19.98.
H&R announces on Cision the suspension of Distribution Reinvestment Plan. They basically said they have enough capital. H&R announces on Cision their fourth quarter results and how they reorganizing. Rob Logan on Ledger Gazette talks about some recent analysts' recommendations. See what analysts' are saying about this stock on Stock Chase.
H&R Real Estate Investment Trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. It owns, operates and develops commercial and residential properties across Canada and in the United States. Its web site is here H & R Real Estate Trust.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF)... learn more on March 9, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy March 2018... learn more on March 8, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Monday, March 5, 2018
Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. Most testing shows that this REIT is on the expensive side as it is testing above the median. See my spreadsheet on Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.
I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed in 2015 were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.
This REIT is not growing the Revenue per share well. Outstanding shares have grown by 7.7% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is a lot. The Revenue appears to be rising well as it has grown by 10.16% and 14.64% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the real growth in Revenue is that shown by Revenue per Share grown which is at 2.27% and 0.58% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running average growth for Revenue per Share is better at 2.18% and 4.23%, but not nearly as good as shown by Revenue.
Dividend yield are moderate to good and the dividend growth is low. The current dividend at 3.80% is moderate, but the 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are in the good range at 4.05%, 4.57 and 5.72%. Dividend growth over the past 5, 10 and 14 years is low at 2.39%, 2.04% and 4.51%.
You would expect growth in distributions from REITs to be at or slightly above the rate of inflation. The Banks of Canada says that inflation is running under 2% currently. So this would suggest that the dividend growth for the past 5 and 10 years is fine.
The long term total return has been good with this REIT. The total return for the past 5m 10 and 14 years is at 9.02%, 12.37% and 15.30% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 4.98%, 7.33% and 8.84% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to distribution is 4.04%, 5.04% and 6.46% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.42, 9.29 and 10.38. The 10 year ratios are 8.94, 10.16 and 11.49. The historical ratios are 12.68, 14.26 and 15.85. Since the historical ratios take us over the C GAAP/IFRS accounting divide, this might account for the change in P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 14.67 based on a stock price of $41.07 and 2018 EPS estimate of $2.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
Since this is a REIT I want to look at Price/Funds from Operations also. The 5 year P/FFO Ratios are 15.24, 16.73 and 18.43. The 10 year ratios are 14.23, 16.37 and 18.21. The current P/FFO Ratio is 17.70 based on 2018 FFO estimate of $2.32 and a stock price of $41.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $44.65 based on FFO. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.89 and 0.98. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92 based on a stock price of $41.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share ratio of 1.09. The current P/B Ratio is 1.08 based on Book Value of $3549M, Book Value per Share of $38.19 and a stock price of $41.07. The current P/B Ratio is some 0.9% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The historical median dividend yield is 5.72%. The current dividend yield is 3.80% based on dividends of $1.56 and a stock price of $41.07. The current dividend yield is some 33.6% lower than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are 4.05% and 4.57%. The current dividend yield is some 6.2% and 16.9% below these yields. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.26. The current P/S Ratio is 8.62 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $443M, Revenue per Share of $4.77 and a stock price of $41.07. The current P/S Ratio is some 18.6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median and close to expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (8) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $44.23. This implies a total return of $11.49% with 7.69% from capital gains and 3.80% from distributions.
Jacob Donnelly of Motley Fool thinks that this is a must have REIT. Kayla Ward on Simply Wall Street likes this REIT's ROE. Ivanka Thompson of Bangalore Weekly talks about recent analysts changes. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They seem to like this REIT, but say it is not cheap.
Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust is a closed-end real estate investment trust. It owns, manages and develops urban office environments for business tenants operating in Canada. Its web site is here Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.
The last stock I wrote about was about was RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC- RIOCF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be H & R Real Estate Trust)... learn more on Tuesday, March 7, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks March 2018... learn more on March 6, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed in 2015 were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.
This REIT is not growing the Revenue per share well. Outstanding shares have grown by 7.7% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is a lot. The Revenue appears to be rising well as it has grown by 10.16% and 14.64% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the real growth in Revenue is that shown by Revenue per Share grown which is at 2.27% and 0.58% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running average growth for Revenue per Share is better at 2.18% and 4.23%, but not nearly as good as shown by Revenue.
Dividend yield are moderate to good and the dividend growth is low. The current dividend at 3.80% is moderate, but the 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are in the good range at 4.05%, 4.57 and 5.72%. Dividend growth over the past 5, 10 and 14 years is low at 2.39%, 2.04% and 4.51%.
You would expect growth in distributions from REITs to be at or slightly above the rate of inflation. The Banks of Canada says that inflation is running under 2% currently. So this would suggest that the dividend growth for the past 5 and 10 years is fine.
The long term total return has been good with this REIT. The total return for the past 5m 10 and 14 years is at 9.02%, 12.37% and 15.30% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is 4.98%, 7.33% and 8.84% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to distribution is 4.04%, 5.04% and 6.46% per year.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.42, 9.29 and 10.38. The 10 year ratios are 8.94, 10.16 and 11.49. The historical ratios are 12.68, 14.26 and 15.85. Since the historical ratios take us over the C GAAP/IFRS accounting divide, this might account for the change in P/E Ratios. The current P/E Ratio is 14.67 based on a stock price of $41.07 and 2018 EPS estimate of $2.80. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive.
Since this is a REIT I want to look at Price/Funds from Operations also. The 5 year P/FFO Ratios are 15.24, 16.73 and 18.43. The 10 year ratios are 14.23, 16.37 and 18.21. The current P/FFO Ratio is 17.70 based on 2018 FFO estimate of $2.32 and a stock price of $41.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $44.65 based on FFO. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.89 and 0.98. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92 based on a stock price of $41.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share ratio of 1.09. The current P/B Ratio is 1.08 based on Book Value of $3549M, Book Value per Share of $38.19 and a stock price of $41.07. The current P/B Ratio is some 0.9% lower than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The historical median dividend yield is 5.72%. The current dividend yield is 3.80% based on dividends of $1.56 and a stock price of $41.07. The current dividend yield is some 33.6% lower than the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are 4.05% and 4.57%. The current dividend yield is some 6.2% and 16.9% below these yields. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.26. The current P/S Ratio is 8.62 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $443M, Revenue per Share of $4.77 and a stock price of $41.07. The current P/S Ratio is some 18.6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median and close to expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy (8) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $44.23. This implies a total return of $11.49% with 7.69% from capital gains and 3.80% from distributions.
Jacob Donnelly of Motley Fool thinks that this is a must have REIT. Kayla Ward on Simply Wall Street likes this REIT's ROE. Ivanka Thompson of Bangalore Weekly talks about recent analysts changes. See what analysts are saying about this stock on Stock Chase. They seem to like this REIT, but say it is not cheap.
Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust is a closed-end real estate investment trust. It owns, manages and develops urban office environments for business tenants operating in Canada. Its web site is here Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust.
The last stock I wrote about was about was RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC- RIOCF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be H & R Real Estate Trust)... learn more on Tuesday, March 7, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks March 2018... learn more on March 6, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
Friday, March 2, 2018
RioCan Real Estate
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Canadian REIT. There is insider buying during the past year whereas others years there was insider selling. This is a good sign. A distribution increase for 2018 is another good sign. Some stock price testing shows this stock as relatively cheap and others at relatively reasonable. It does not appear to be cheap. See my spreadsheet on RioCan Real Estate.
I own this stock of RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF). I first bought this stock 1998 because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. It was a stock covered and recommended by MPL Communications in their Income Trust coverage. Over the years I have made several more purchases of this REIT.
This company has been struggling since 2009. In the three prior years there was net insider selling. This year there is net insider buying. Perhaps this is an indication that insider think that the company is on the right track.
The company states its goal to provide "unitholders stable and reliable cash distributions that will increase over the long term". Analysts now think that the company will do modest rises to the distribution in 2018 and 2019. And, this REIT has increased the dividends for 2018 by2.1%. This is the first increase since 2013.
Dividends have grown by 0.43%, 0.60%, 1.64%, 3.04 and 5.30% per year over the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 23 years. However, the last increase was done in 2013. What you should expect from a REIT is growth about or slightly above the rate of inflation.
Distributions on REITs tend to be good. This REIT is no different. The current distribution yield is 6.13% with 5, 10 and historical median yields at 5.35%, 5.47% and 7.47%.
Except for the past 5 years, shareholders have done quite well with this stock. The 5, 10, 15, 20 and 23 year total returns are 2.92%, 7.20%, 12.88%, 13.12% and 21.44% per year. There is a capital loss of 2.44% per year for the past 5 years with capital gains for 10, 15, 20 and 23 years at 1.11%, 4.57%, 4.42% and 7.62% per year. The portion attributed to distributions is 5.36%, 6.10%, 8.31%, 8.70% and 13.82% per year.
I have held this stock for 20 years, but have bought shares in 2000, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014. My total return is 11.82% with 2.72% from capital gains and 9.20% from distributions. The dividends paid have covered some 76% of the cost of my stock.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.82, 11.60 and 12.89. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 11.25, 12.06 and 13.12. The historical ratios are 11.64, 12.67 and 13.36. The current P/E Ratio is 13.58 based on current stock price of $23.49 and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
For REITs it is wise also to look at Price/Funds from Operations Ratios. The low, median and high median 5 year ratios are 13.53, 15.70 and 17.00. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.35, 14.92 and 16.77. The current P/FFO Ratio is 13.12 based on a stock price of $23.49 and 2018 FFO estimate of $1.85. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $30.82. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.71, 0.77 and 0.84. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76 based on a stock price of $23.49. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.50. The current P/B Ratio is 0.96 based on Book Value of $7,900M, Book Value per Share of $24.40 and a stock price of $23.49. The current ratio is some 36% below the 10 year median. This would suggest that the stock price is relatively cheap.
However, the book value was affect by the switch to IFRS accounting. The switch to this accounting occurred in 2011. If we look at the median P/B Ratio since then it is 1.14 and the current P/B Ratio is only some 15.6% lower. This suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. Also a P/B Ratio below 1.00 suggests that a stock is cheap.
The historical median yield is 7.47. The current yield is 6.13 based on distributions of $1.44 and a stock price of $23.49. The current yield is some 17.9% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
However, the 5 and 10 year yields are a lot lower than the historical yield. The 5 and 10 year yields are at 5.35% (14% lower than the current yield) and 5.47 (12% lower than the current yield). This stock price testing would suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.14. The current P/S Ratio is 6.69 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $1,137M, Revenue per Share of $3.51 and a stock price of $23.49. The current ratio is 6.4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (6) and Hold (2) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $27.78. This implies a total return of 24.39% with 18.26% from capital gains and 6.13% from dividends.
In an article on Financial Post Ed Sonshine says he is too busy trying to Amazon-proof his Canadian shopping-mall empire by turning them into hip urban oases to be worried about being number 1. Jacob Donnelly of Motley Fool thinks now is the time to buy RioCan with its 6% distribution. DR Contributor on Danvers Record says a Relative Strength Index of 40.18 shows that this stock is oversold. See what analysts think of this stock on Stock Chase . They have mixed views.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust. The Company owns and operates a portfolio of retail, industrial and office properties. Its web site is here RioCan Real Estate .
The last stock I wrote about was about was Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF)... learn more on Monday, March 5, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
I own this stock of RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF). I first bought this stock 1998 because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. It was a stock covered and recommended by MPL Communications in their Income Trust coverage. Over the years I have made several more purchases of this REIT.
This company has been struggling since 2009. In the three prior years there was net insider selling. This year there is net insider buying. Perhaps this is an indication that insider think that the company is on the right track.
The company states its goal to provide "unitholders stable and reliable cash distributions that will increase over the long term". Analysts now think that the company will do modest rises to the distribution in 2018 and 2019. And, this REIT has increased the dividends for 2018 by2.1%. This is the first increase since 2013.
Dividends have grown by 0.43%, 0.60%, 1.64%, 3.04 and 5.30% per year over the past 5, 10, 15, 20 and 23 years. However, the last increase was done in 2013. What you should expect from a REIT is growth about or slightly above the rate of inflation.
Distributions on REITs tend to be good. This REIT is no different. The current distribution yield is 6.13% with 5, 10 and historical median yields at 5.35%, 5.47% and 7.47%.
Except for the past 5 years, shareholders have done quite well with this stock. The 5, 10, 15, 20 and 23 year total returns are 2.92%, 7.20%, 12.88%, 13.12% and 21.44% per year. There is a capital loss of 2.44% per year for the past 5 years with capital gains for 10, 15, 20 and 23 years at 1.11%, 4.57%, 4.42% and 7.62% per year. The portion attributed to distributions is 5.36%, 6.10%, 8.31%, 8.70% and 13.82% per year.
I have held this stock for 20 years, but have bought shares in 2000, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014. My total return is 11.82% with 2.72% from capital gains and 9.20% from distributions. The dividends paid have covered some 76% of the cost of my stock.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.82, 11.60 and 12.89. The 10 year corresponding ratios are 11.25, 12.06 and 13.12. The historical ratios are 11.64, 12.67 and 13.36. The current P/E Ratio is 13.58 based on current stock price of $23.49 and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.73. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
For REITs it is wise also to look at Price/Funds from Operations Ratios. The low, median and high median 5 year ratios are 13.53, 15.70 and 17.00. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.35, 14.92 and 16.77. The current P/FFO Ratio is 13.12 based on a stock price of $23.49 and 2018 FFO estimate of $1.85. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $30.82. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.71, 0.77 and 0.84. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76 based on a stock price of $23.49. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.50. The current P/B Ratio is 0.96 based on Book Value of $7,900M, Book Value per Share of $24.40 and a stock price of $23.49. The current ratio is some 36% below the 10 year median. This would suggest that the stock price is relatively cheap.
However, the book value was affect by the switch to IFRS accounting. The switch to this accounting occurred in 2011. If we look at the median P/B Ratio since then it is 1.14 and the current P/B Ratio is only some 15.6% lower. This suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. Also a P/B Ratio below 1.00 suggests that a stock is cheap.
The historical median yield is 7.47. The current yield is 6.13 based on distributions of $1.44 and a stock price of $23.49. The current yield is some 17.9% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
However, the 5 and 10 year yields are a lot lower than the historical yield. The 5 and 10 year yields are at 5.35% (14% lower than the current yield) and 5.47 (12% lower than the current yield). This stock price testing would suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.14. The current P/S Ratio is 6.69 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $1,137M, Revenue per Share of $3.51 and a stock price of $23.49. The current ratio is 6.4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (6) and Hold (2) recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $27.78. This implies a total return of 24.39% with 18.26% from capital gains and 6.13% from dividends.
In an article on Financial Post Ed Sonshine says he is too busy trying to Amazon-proof his Canadian shopping-mall empire by turning them into hip urban oases to be worried about being number 1. Jacob Donnelly of Motley Fool thinks now is the time to buy RioCan with its 6% distribution. DR Contributor on Danvers Record says a Relative Strength Index of 40.18 shows that this stock is oversold. See what analysts think of this stock on Stock Chase . They have mixed views.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust. The Company owns and operates a portfolio of retail, industrial and office properties. Its web site is here RioCan Real Estate .
The last stock I wrote about was about was Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF)... learn more on Monday, March 5, 2018 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
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