H & R Real Estate Trust

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Canadian REIT. The stock price seems to go from cheap to reasonable and below the median. The outstanding shares have grown so to see growth you have to look at pre share growth. Dividends have not grown much lately. See my spreadsheet on H & R Real Estate Trust.

I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC-HRUFF). Before I started blogging, I was following a number of REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.

Outstanding shares have grown steadily with increase of 8.4% and 8.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This makes the per share values the one to show growth. It can make a difference. The growth in Revenue over the past 5 and 10 years is at 6.9% and 7.2% per year. Revenue per Share is down by 1.3% and 1.2% over the same time periods.

There were dividend increases until 2013, then they paused for two years and resumed in 2017, but there has been none since. There was also a 50% decrease in dividends in 2009. So the growth in dividends is lower than inflation for durations of 10 and 15 years. The growth in dividends for the past 5, 10, 15 and 10 years is at 3.27%, 0.07%, 0.94% and 3.60%. You want dividend growth at or above the rate of inflation. Years 5 and 20 are that.

The dividend yield is good with the current dividend yield at 6.91%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also good at 6.05%, 6.01% and 6.46%. Analysts do not seem to expect any dividend growth over the next couple of years.

People who have owned this stock for 20 years have done better than those that have owned it for 5 to 15 years. The lowest total return is for 5 years. The total return for 5, 10, 15 and 20 years is at 3.51%, 6.43%, 10.90% and 12.09%. The portion of this total return attributable to distributions is at 5.89%, 5.69%, 7.71%, and 8.65%. Over the past 5 years there is a capital loss of 2.38%. For other years of 10, 15 and 20 years there is capital gain of 0.74, 3.18 and 3.44%. You would expect distributions to be higher than capital gains, but it would be reasonable to expect capital gains to be in the 3% range.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.51, 16.71 and 18.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.54, 15.96 and 18.21. The historical ratios are 11.33, 13.30 and 14.46. The current P/E Ratio is 13.23 based on a current stock price of $19.98 and 2018 EPS estimate of $1.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Since this is a REIT, I also look at the Price/FFO Ratios. The 5 year low, median and high median P/FFO Ratios are 11.06, 11.88 and 12.83. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.16, 11.98 and 13.01. The current P/FFO Ratio is 10.86 based on a stock price of $19.98 and 2018 FFO estimate of $1.84. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $31.94. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.65, 0.70 and 0.73. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.63 based on a stock price of $19.98. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.02. The current P/B Ratio is 0.81 based on Book Value of $7180M, Book Value per Share of $24.65 and a stock price of $19.98. The current P/B Ratio is some 12.5% lower than the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The historical median dividend yield is 6.46%. The current dividend yield is 6.91% based on dividends of $1.38 and a stock price of $19.98. The current dividend yield is some 6.9% above the historical median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.16. The current P/S Ratio is 4.77 based on 2018 Revenue estimate of $1220, Revenue per Share of $4.19 and a stock price of $19.98. The current P/S Ratio is some 7.6% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (6) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.92. This implies a total return of 26.63% with 19.72% from capital gains and 6.91% from dividends based on a current price of 19.98.

H&R announces on Cision the suspension of Distribution Reinvestment Plan. They basically said they have enough capital. H&R announces on Cision their fourth quarter results and how they reorganizing. Rob Logan on Ledger Gazette talks about some recent analysts' recommendations. See what analysts' are saying about this stock on Stock Chase.

H&R Real Estate Investment Trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. It owns, operates and develops commercial and residential properties across Canada and in the United States. Its web site is here H & R Real Estate Trust.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF)... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Tire Corp (TSX-CTC.A, OTC-CDNAF)... learn more on March 9, 2018 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Something to Buy March 2018... learn more on March 8, 2018 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.