On my other blog I am today writing about how my dividend growth calculation spreadsheets match up with what really happened. continue...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer Staple Stock. I think that if you are putting together a portfolio for future income, you should include stocks with low dividend yield and high dividend growth. See my spreadsheet at sap.htm.
I own this stock of Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list and on the dividend lists that I followed. I bought this stock first in 2006 for my RRSP account. Because I am now taking money from my RRSP accounts, I have been selling this stock because of the low dividend. I still like this stock so I have been buying it in my TFSA.
This stock has a low dividend and good dividend increase. However, dividend increases have been slowing down lately. The current dividend yield is 1.79% and the 5 year median is 1.74%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at11.9% and 22.9% per year.
I have had this stock in my RRSP for some 9 years. Currently I am earning 5.62% dividend yield on my stock's original cost. If you had been a shareholder for 5, 10 or 15 years, you could be making 2.9%, 5.6% or 11.7% dividend yield if you paid a median price for this stock. Also after 5, 10 or 15 years, the dividends could have covered 12.6%, 38.4% and 93.4% of the original cost of the stock if you paid a median price.
I have earned a total return of 17.94% per year on this stock. The portion of my total return attributable to dividends is 2.19% and the portion attributable to capital gains is 15.75%. The total return over the past 5 and 10 years is at 9.97% and 15.40% per year with 8.04% and 13.11% per year from capital gains and 1.93% and 2.29% from dividends. When buying stock it is a good idea to buy stock below the relative median price.
The outstanding shares have decreased by 1.1% and 0.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and decreased due to Buy Backs. Because shares have decreased it is a good idea to keep an eye on things like Net Income rather than EPS. Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow have grown at a good rate over the past 5 and 10 years.
Revenue has grown at 12.9% and 10.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 14.1% and 11.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts only expect modest growth in Revenue at 2.6% for the next financial year which ends in March 2016.
Net Income has grown at 13.1% and 11.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has grown at 10.8% and 10.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts still expect good growth in EPS for the next financial year ending in March 2016 at around 9.8%. Net Income growth is expected to be a bit better at 10.4%.
Cash Flow has grown at 10.6% and 115 per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS has grown at 11.4% and 11.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts also expect good growth in Cash Flow for the next financial year ending in March 2016 at around 16%.
This stock was first issued in 1997 and since then the Return on Equity has been over 10% each year. The ROE for the financial year ending in March 2015 was 16.7% and the 5 year median is 18.8%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is even better at 26.3% for the financial year ending in March 2015. The 5 year median is 21.3%.
Debt ratios have generally always be good. The Liquidity Ratio for the financial year of March 2015 is at 1.63. It is better than it has been recently as the 5 year median is just 1.35. The 10 year median ratio is better at 1.53. The Debt Ratio has always been quite good and the ratio for the financial year of March 2015 is 2.14. This ratio has a 5 year median of 2.14.
The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios have varied over time, but they are good for the financial year ending in March 2015 at 1.87 and 0.87. The 5 year median ratios are 1.72 and 0.72 respectively.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, July 16, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Saputo produces, markets, and distributes a wide array of products of the utmost quality, including cheese, fluid milk, yogurt, dairy ingredients and snack-cakes. Saputo is the twelfth largest dairy processor in the world, the largest in Canada; the third largest in Argentina and among the top three cheese producers in the United States. Their products are sold in more than 50 countries under well-known brand names. Its web site is here Saputo.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
Suncor Energy Inc. 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is Cheap. The problem is that oil prices are down. I think that this stock is relatively cheap. Of course at some point, I can see the world getting off oil and going fully renewable, but I think that this is a bit far off at the moment. See my spreadsheet at su.htm.
I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU. PCA and SU merged in 2009. Anyone looking at this stock would have had to followed SU or PCA into the merger which was only 5 years ago.
In insider trading there was some $7.1M of insider selling and some $0.5M of insider buying for a net insider selling of $6.6M over the past year. This is some 0.01% of market cap and so is relatively small. There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $13.6M, the CFO owning shares worth around $0.4M and a Director owning shares worth around $0.7M. Relatively speaking it is not much as all this would be way under 1% of market cap.
This company issued some 7.8M of shares for stock options last year. This is some 0.54% of outstanding shares and is relatively around the top end of what companies would issue. These shares had a book value of $292M and this number of shares would be worth around $289M by the end of 2014.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.58, 13.89 and 17.37. The corresponding 10 year ratios are higher at 15.54, 19.60 and 24.37. By the way, the historical median P/E Ratio is 26.21 which is even higher. The current P/E Ratio is 52.31 based on a stock price of $34.00 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.65. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Note that forward P/E for 2016 is 20.12 based on a stock price of $34.00 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.69. On the other hand the analyst estimates for this stock where way higher than what occurred for the last 3 years.
I get a Graham Price of $20.44. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.83, 1.07 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.66 based on a stock price of $34.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive. However, the Graham Price is expected to be around $32.95 in 2016 which would give a P/GP Ratio of 1.03 based on a stock price of $34.00. Since Graham Price includes EPS in its formula the same remarks on analysts' missing in their EPS estimate would apply.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.19 based on a stock price of $34.00 and current BVPS of $28.56. The current P/B Ratio is some 12% lower than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. For the stock to be cheap, the current P/B Ratio would have to be some 20% lower than the 10 year median. However, a P/B Ratio is 1.19 is a low ratio. This historical median P/B Ratio is 1.45 and the current one is some 19% lower than this.
Where this stock is showing up cheap is using the dividend yield. In this case the one that counts is the historical high which is 2.77%. The current dividend yield of 3.29% is some 19% higher than the historical high. This dividend yield is based on a stock price of $34.00 and dividends of $1.12. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. What is good about this testing is there is no use of estimates and we are using current stock price and current dividend yield.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform. Most of the recommendations are either a Buy or a Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month price target is $43.30. This implies a total return of $30.65% with 27.35% from capital gains and 3.29% from dividends.
Benjamin Sinclair of Motley Fool talks about why Goldman Sachs says you should buy Suncor. An article in the Legacy talks about some analysts giving a Buy rating on this stock. There is an article in the Globe and Mail recently talking about Suncor seeking answers from NEB about delay in the Sarnia to Montreal pipeline.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, July 13, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Suncor is also developing a growing renewable energy portfolio. Their international and offshore business includes operations in the North Sea (United Kingdom, Netherlands and Norway) and the East Coast of Canada. They are also in Libya, Syria and Trinidad and Tobago. Its web site is here Suncor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU. PCA and SU merged in 2009. Anyone looking at this stock would have had to followed SU or PCA into the merger which was only 5 years ago.
In insider trading there was some $7.1M of insider selling and some $0.5M of insider buying for a net insider selling of $6.6M over the past year. This is some 0.01% of market cap and so is relatively small. There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $13.6M, the CFO owning shares worth around $0.4M and a Director owning shares worth around $0.7M. Relatively speaking it is not much as all this would be way under 1% of market cap.
This company issued some 7.8M of shares for stock options last year. This is some 0.54% of outstanding shares and is relatively around the top end of what companies would issue. These shares had a book value of $292M and this number of shares would be worth around $289M by the end of 2014.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.58, 13.89 and 17.37. The corresponding 10 year ratios are higher at 15.54, 19.60 and 24.37. By the way, the historical median P/E Ratio is 26.21 which is even higher. The current P/E Ratio is 52.31 based on a stock price of $34.00 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.65. This testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively expensive.
Note that forward P/E for 2016 is 20.12 based on a stock price of $34.00 and 2016 EPS estimate of $1.69. On the other hand the analyst estimates for this stock where way higher than what occurred for the last 3 years.
I get a Graham Price of $20.44. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.83, 1.07 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.66 based on a stock price of $34.00. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive. However, the Graham Price is expected to be around $32.95 in 2016 which would give a P/GP Ratio of 1.03 based on a stock price of $34.00. Since Graham Price includes EPS in its formula the same remarks on analysts' missing in their EPS estimate would apply.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.19 based on a stock price of $34.00 and current BVPS of $28.56. The current P/B Ratio is some 12% lower than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. For the stock to be cheap, the current P/B Ratio would have to be some 20% lower than the 10 year median. However, a P/B Ratio is 1.19 is a low ratio. This historical median P/B Ratio is 1.45 and the current one is some 19% lower than this.
Where this stock is showing up cheap is using the dividend yield. In this case the one that counts is the historical high which is 2.77%. The current dividend yield of 3.29% is some 19% higher than the historical high. This dividend yield is based on a stock price of $34.00 and dividends of $1.12. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. What is good about this testing is there is no use of estimates and we are using current stock price and current dividend yield.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform. Most of the recommendations are either a Buy or a Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month price target is $43.30. This implies a total return of $30.65% with 27.35% from capital gains and 3.29% from dividends.
Benjamin Sinclair of Motley Fool talks about why Goldman Sachs says you should buy Suncor. An article in the Legacy talks about some analysts giving a Buy rating on this stock. There is an article in the Globe and Mail recently talking about Suncor seeking answers from NEB about delay in the Sarnia to Montreal pipeline.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, July 13, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Suncor is also developing a growing renewable energy portfolio. Their international and offshore business includes operations in the North Sea (United Kingdom, Netherlands and Norway) and the East Coast of Canada. They are also in Libya, Syria and Trinidad and Tobago. Its web site is here Suncor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, July 13, 2015
Suncor Energy Inc.
On my other blog I am today writing about Ben Hunt posting about how he thinks that EU and Greece are playing a game of chicken continue...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth oil company. Suncor has done well since merging with Petro-Canada 5 years ago. However, it is not doing well at present because of the price of oil. See my spreadsheet at su.htm.
I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU. PCA and SU merged in 2009. Anyone looking at this stock would have had to followed SU or PCA into the merger which was only 5 years ago.
This stock used to have very low dividends and very good increases. The historical median dividend is just 0.56%. The 5 and 10 year dividend increases are at 27.7% and 27% per year. However, dividend increases were a little in consistent with the good dividend increases in the years from 2004 to 2010. Currently the dividend is at an all-time high of 3.29%.
This stock peaked in 2007, 2008 and has basically just mucked around since. It is since this time that the dividend yield started to grow from a value below 1% to where it is today. Oil and oil stocks are not doing well at present because of the drop in Oil prices.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently fine. The DPR for 2014 was 55.4% for EPS and 16.3% for CFPS. The 5 year median values are 27.9% for EPS and 9.32% for CFPS. So these ratios have been increasing. Analysts expect these ratios to be even higher this year at 172% for EPS and 24.5% for CFPS before dropping again in 2016.
Total return on this company has been low lately with the 5 and 10 years values at a negative 0.26% and positive 0.70% per year. The portion attributed to capital loss is at 2.34% and 0.69% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The portion attributed to dividends is at 2.08% and 1.39% per year. If you are holding for the longer term, at least not much has been lost and things are bound to change when the price of oil recovers.
The outstanding shares have decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and DRIP. The shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue growth is low to good. EPS is moderate to good. Cash flow growth is non-existent to good. However, since there is a real break in reporting such things before and after 2009 the date of the merger, I will just talk about what has happened since then.
Revenue is up by 9.75 per year over the past 5 years. Revenue per share is up by 11.4% per year. Analysts expect the Revenue to drop by some 20% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month Revenue to the end of 2014 and the 12 month Revenue to the end of the first quarter, then Revenue is down by 7.6%.
EPS is up by 14.1% per year over the past 5 years. Here also analysts expect a big drop in EPS of around 65%. If you look at the 12 month EPS to the end of 2014 and the 12 month EPS to the end of the first quarter, then EPS is down by 68%.
Cash Flow is up by 26.4% per year over the past 5 years. CFPS is up by 28.3% per year over the past 5 years. Analysts also expect a drop in cash flow in 2015 of around 26%. If you look at the 12 month Cash Flow to the end of 2014 and the 12 month Cash Flow to the end of the first quarter, then Cash Flow is down by 9.6%.
The Return on Equity has only breached 10% once in the past 5 years. The ROE for 2014 was 6.5% and the 5 year median was 9.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income was a bit higher in 2014 at 7.1% with its 5 year median at 9.1%. Comprehensive income basically supports net income values and this suggests that the earnings are of good quality.
The debt ratios are currently good. The Liquidity Ratio has often been low, but in 2014 it was 1.67. The Debt Ratio for 2014 was also good at 2.09 and this ratio has often been very good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also currently good at 1.92 and 0.92 for 2014.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, July 14, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Suncor is also developing a growing renewable energy portfolio. Their international and offshore business includes operations in the North Sea (United Kingdom, Netherlands and Norway) and the East Coast of Canada. They are also in Libya, Syria and Trinidad and Tobago. Its web site is here Suncor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth oil company. Suncor has done well since merging with Petro-Canada 5 years ago. However, it is not doing well at present because of the price of oil. See my spreadsheet at su.htm.
I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU. PCA and SU merged in 2009. Anyone looking at this stock would have had to followed SU or PCA into the merger which was only 5 years ago.
This stock used to have very low dividends and very good increases. The historical median dividend is just 0.56%. The 5 and 10 year dividend increases are at 27.7% and 27% per year. However, dividend increases were a little in consistent with the good dividend increases in the years from 2004 to 2010. Currently the dividend is at an all-time high of 3.29%.
This stock peaked in 2007, 2008 and has basically just mucked around since. It is since this time that the dividend yield started to grow from a value below 1% to where it is today. Oil and oil stocks are not doing well at present because of the drop in Oil prices.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently fine. The DPR for 2014 was 55.4% for EPS and 16.3% for CFPS. The 5 year median values are 27.9% for EPS and 9.32% for CFPS. So these ratios have been increasing. Analysts expect these ratios to be even higher this year at 172% for EPS and 24.5% for CFPS before dropping again in 2016.
Total return on this company has been low lately with the 5 and 10 years values at a negative 0.26% and positive 0.70% per year. The portion attributed to capital loss is at 2.34% and 0.69% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The portion attributed to dividends is at 2.08% and 1.39% per year. If you are holding for the longer term, at least not much has been lost and things are bound to change when the price of oil recovers.
The outstanding shares have decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and DRIP. The shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue growth is low to good. EPS is moderate to good. Cash flow growth is non-existent to good. However, since there is a real break in reporting such things before and after 2009 the date of the merger, I will just talk about what has happened since then.
Revenue is up by 9.75 per year over the past 5 years. Revenue per share is up by 11.4% per year. Analysts expect the Revenue to drop by some 20% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month Revenue to the end of 2014 and the 12 month Revenue to the end of the first quarter, then Revenue is down by 7.6%.
EPS is up by 14.1% per year over the past 5 years. Here also analysts expect a big drop in EPS of around 65%. If you look at the 12 month EPS to the end of 2014 and the 12 month EPS to the end of the first quarter, then EPS is down by 68%.
Cash Flow is up by 26.4% per year over the past 5 years. CFPS is up by 28.3% per year over the past 5 years. Analysts also expect a drop in cash flow in 2015 of around 26%. If you look at the 12 month Cash Flow to the end of 2014 and the 12 month Cash Flow to the end of the first quarter, then Cash Flow is down by 9.6%.
The Return on Equity has only breached 10% once in the past 5 years. The ROE for 2014 was 6.5% and the 5 year median was 9.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income was a bit higher in 2014 at 7.1% with its 5 year median at 9.1%. Comprehensive income basically supports net income values and this suggests that the earnings are of good quality.
The debt ratios are currently good. The Liquidity Ratio has often been low, but in 2014 it was 1.67. The Debt Ratio for 2014 was also good at 2.09 and this ratio has often been very good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also currently good at 1.92 and 0.92 for 2014.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, July 14, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Suncor is also developing a growing renewable energy portfolio. Their international and offshore business includes operations in the North Sea (United Kingdom, Netherlands and Norway) and the East Coast of Canada. They are also in Libya, Syria and Trinidad and Tobago. Its web site is here Suncor.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, July 10, 2015
Intact Financial Corp. 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is relatively reasonable to expensive. The price seems to be above the historical median, but this company has not been around for long, just since 2004. A P/E of 14.01 is not very high. However, I do not think this stock is cheap by any means or ratio. See my spreadsheet at ifc.htm.
I do not own this stock of Intact Financial Corp. (TSX-IFC, OTC- IFCZF). In November 2011, the TD Bank put out a special report on the merits of dividend investing. At the end of the report they listed a number of Canadian stocks as Equity Yield ideas. This was one stock listed that I did not follow.
Also in a column by John Heinzl dated December 2013 he gave five dividend growth stocks to buy and hold. He liked the following stocks: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS); TransCanada (TRP); Intact Financial (IFC); Saputo (SAP); and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) He said these stocks had blue chip value of a solid balance sheet; an attractive valuation; a leadership position in the industry; above-average profitability; and long-term earnings and dividend growth.
There is some insider ownership. The CEO has shares worth around $14.2M. An officer has shares worth around $7.3M and the Chairman has shares worth around $2.6M. Of course all of this adds up to less than 1% of the outstanding shares for this company worth around $11.7B.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.93, 13.42 and 14.90. The corresponding 10 year ratios are similar at 11.69, 13.19 and 14.69. The current P/E Ratio is 14.01 based on a stock price of $89.37 and 2015 EPS estimate of $6.38. The price is above the relative median. However, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $74.78. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.95, 1.06 and 1.15. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.20 based on a stock price of $89.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.81. The current P/B Ratio is 2.29 based on a stock price of $89.37 and BVPS of $38.95. The current P/B Ratio is some 27% above the 10 year P/B Ratio. However, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.77% and the current dividend yield at 2.37 is some 14.5% lower. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $2.12 and a stock price of $39.37. The price is above the relative median. However, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The historical median dividend yield is 2.75% and the historical close dividend yield is 2.53%. These dividend yields are 13.7% and 6.34% above the current dividend yield of 2.37%. The price is above the relative median. However, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The analysts' recommendations are Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $94.10. This implies a total return of 7.66% with 2.37% from dividends and 5.29% from capital gains.
In June 2015 at a price of $85.90 Forbes says that this stock is oversold. (It is a good time to buy a stock when it is oversold.) Doug Watt of Motley Fool in July 2015 says this stock is the perfect buy and hold stock for long-term investors. In this article in the Canadian Underwriter, Intact Financial Corporation announced its acquisition of Canadian Direct Insurance Inc.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, July 09, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Intact Financial Corporation is the largest provider of property and casualty insurance in Canada. Intact offers home, auto and business insurance through Intact Insurance, Novex Group Insurance, Belair Direct, GP Car and Home and BrokerLink. Its web site is here Husky.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Intact Financial Corp. (TSX-IFC, OTC- IFCZF). In November 2011, the TD Bank put out a special report on the merits of dividend investing. At the end of the report they listed a number of Canadian stocks as Equity Yield ideas. This was one stock listed that I did not follow.
Also in a column by John Heinzl dated December 2013 he gave five dividend growth stocks to buy and hold. He liked the following stocks: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS); TransCanada (TRP); Intact Financial (IFC); Saputo (SAP); and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) He said these stocks had blue chip value of a solid balance sheet; an attractive valuation; a leadership position in the industry; above-average profitability; and long-term earnings and dividend growth.
There is some insider ownership. The CEO has shares worth around $14.2M. An officer has shares worth around $7.3M and the Chairman has shares worth around $2.6M. Of course all of this adds up to less than 1% of the outstanding shares for this company worth around $11.7B.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.93, 13.42 and 14.90. The corresponding 10 year ratios are similar at 11.69, 13.19 and 14.69. The current P/E Ratio is 14.01 based on a stock price of $89.37 and 2015 EPS estimate of $6.38. The price is above the relative median. However, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a Graham Price of $74.78. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.95, 1.06 and 1.15. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.20 based on a stock price of $89.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.81. The current P/B Ratio is 2.29 based on a stock price of $89.37 and BVPS of $38.95. The current P/B Ratio is some 27% above the 10 year P/B Ratio. However, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.77% and the current dividend yield at 2.37 is some 14.5% lower. The current dividend yield is based on dividends of $2.12 and a stock price of $39.37. The price is above the relative median. However, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The historical median dividend yield is 2.75% and the historical close dividend yield is 2.53%. These dividend yields are 13.7% and 6.34% above the current dividend yield of 2.37%. The price is above the relative median. However, this stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The analysts' recommendations are Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $94.10. This implies a total return of 7.66% with 2.37% from dividends and 5.29% from capital gains.
In June 2015 at a price of $85.90 Forbes says that this stock is oversold. (It is a good time to buy a stock when it is oversold.) Doug Watt of Motley Fool in July 2015 says this stock is the perfect buy and hold stock for long-term investors. In this article in the Canadian Underwriter, Intact Financial Corporation announced its acquisition of Canadian Direct Insurance Inc.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, July 09, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Intact Financial Corporation is the largest provider of property and casualty insurance in Canada. Intact offers home, auto and business insurance through Intact Insurance, Novex Group Insurance, Belair Direct, GP Car and Home and BrokerLink. Its web site is here Husky.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, July 9, 2015
Intact Financial Corp.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth insurance company. This company has done well by its shareholders. It will never have high growth but will supply its shareholders will long term solid growth. See my spreadsheet at ifc.htm.
I do not own this stock of Intact Financial Corp. (TSX-IFC, OTC- IFCZF). In November 2011, the TD Bank put out a special report on the merits of dividend investing. At the end of the report they listed a number of Canadian stocks as Equity Yield ideas. This was one stock listed that I did not follow.
Also in a column by John Heinzl dated December 2013 he gave five dividend growth stocks to buy and hold. He liked the following stocks: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS); TransCanada (TRP); Intact Financial (IFC); Saputo (SAP); and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) He said these stocks had blue chip value of a solid balance sheet; an attractive valuation; a leadership position in the industry; above-average profitability; and long-term earnings and dividend growth.
This stock has a moderate dividend yield and lately moderate dividend growth. The current dividend yield is 2.37% based on a stock price of $89.37. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.77%. The dividend growth is at 8.5% and 12.8% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and it was for 10.4%. This company went public in December 2004 and since then has raised the dividend every year.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2014 was 33.2% and the CFPS was 22.5%. The 5 year DPR for EPS was 37.3% and for CFPS was 28.5%. Similar results are expected for 2015.
If you had held this stock for 5 or 10 years, dividends paid would cover some 20.1% and 36.1% respectively of the cost of a stock purchased at a median stock price. If you had held this stock for 5 or 10 years and had paid a median stock price, you would be earning a dividend yield on the original stock cost of 4.8% and 5.1% respectively.
The 5 and 10 year total return to date is at 14.70% and 7.91% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 2.77% and 2.19% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 7.91% and 5.72% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 1.9% and 2.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to stock issues and decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenues growth is moderate to good. Earnings and cash flow growth is non-existent to good.
Revenue has grown at 11.7% and 7.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 9.7% and 7.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect growth in Net Premiums at 8.4% for 2015. However, if you compare the 12 months to the end of 2014 with the 12 months to the end of the first quarter, the growth in Net Premiums is less than 1%.
The growth in EPS is 40.4% over the past 5 years. Over the past 10 years, EPS is down by 1.1%. The main problem is EPS is volatile. This is a general insurance company and EPS will probably always be volatile. If you look at 5 year running averages, the growth in EPS is 4.3% and 1.1% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. This is probably a better reflection of EPS growth.
Analysts expect EPS to growth at 7.9% in 2015. If you compare the 12 months to the end of 2014 with the 12 months to the end of the first quarter, the growth in EPS is less than 2.6%.
Cash flow has grown at 12.95% over the past 5 years and has declined by 1% over the past 10 years. CFPS has grown by 10.9% per year over the past 5 years and has declined by 1.1% over the past 10 years. Cash Flow is also rather volatile. If you look at CFPS 5 year running average, CFPS has grown by 3.6% and 3% per year over the past 5 and 7 years.
Analysts expect cash flow to drop by some 37% in 2015. If you compare the 12 months to the end of 2014 with the 12 months to the end of the first quarter, Cash Flow has dropped 5.2%.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% 3 times in the last 10 years and once in the last 5 years. The ROE for 2014 was 14.3% with a 5 year median of 12%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 was 14.4% and the 5 year median value is 11.5%. The close ROE on comprehensive income would suggest that the earnings are of good quality.
Debt ratios are fine, but could be better. This is a financial company and they all tend to have lower Debt Ratios and higher Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios than other sorts of companies. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 2.01, but Liquidity Ratios is not of much importance to financial companies. The Debt Ratio of 1.36 is fine. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also fine at 3.77 and 2.77, respectively.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, July 10, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Intact Financial Corporation is the largest provider of property and casualty insurance in Canada. Intact offers home, auto and business insurance through Intact Insurance, Novex Group Insurance, Belair Direct, GP Car and Home and BrokerLink. Its web site is here Husky.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Intact Financial Corp. (TSX-IFC, OTC- IFCZF). In November 2011, the TD Bank put out a special report on the merits of dividend investing. At the end of the report they listed a number of Canadian stocks as Equity Yield ideas. This was one stock listed that I did not follow.
Also in a column by John Heinzl dated December 2013 he gave five dividend growth stocks to buy and hold. He liked the following stocks: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS); TransCanada (TRP); Intact Financial (IFC); Saputo (SAP); and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) He said these stocks had blue chip value of a solid balance sheet; an attractive valuation; a leadership position in the industry; above-average profitability; and long-term earnings and dividend growth.
This stock has a moderate dividend yield and lately moderate dividend growth. The current dividend yield is 2.37% based on a stock price of $89.37. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.77%. The dividend growth is at 8.5% and 12.8% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and it was for 10.4%. This company went public in December 2004 and since then has raised the dividend every year.
The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS for 2014 was 33.2% and the CFPS was 22.5%. The 5 year DPR for EPS was 37.3% and for CFPS was 28.5%. Similar results are expected for 2015.
If you had held this stock for 5 or 10 years, dividends paid would cover some 20.1% and 36.1% respectively of the cost of a stock purchased at a median stock price. If you had held this stock for 5 or 10 years and had paid a median stock price, you would be earning a dividend yield on the original stock cost of 4.8% and 5.1% respectively.
The 5 and 10 year total return to date is at 14.70% and 7.91% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is 2.77% and 2.19% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is 7.91% and 5.72% per year.
The outstanding shares have increased by 1.9% and 2.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to stock issues and decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenues growth is moderate to good. Earnings and cash flow growth is non-existent to good.
Revenue has grown at 11.7% and 7.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 9.7% and 7.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect growth in Net Premiums at 8.4% for 2015. However, if you compare the 12 months to the end of 2014 with the 12 months to the end of the first quarter, the growth in Net Premiums is less than 1%.
The growth in EPS is 40.4% over the past 5 years. Over the past 10 years, EPS is down by 1.1%. The main problem is EPS is volatile. This is a general insurance company and EPS will probably always be volatile. If you look at 5 year running averages, the growth in EPS is 4.3% and 1.1% per year over the past 5 and 8 years. This is probably a better reflection of EPS growth.
Analysts expect EPS to growth at 7.9% in 2015. If you compare the 12 months to the end of 2014 with the 12 months to the end of the first quarter, the growth in EPS is less than 2.6%.
Cash flow has grown at 12.95% over the past 5 years and has declined by 1% over the past 10 years. CFPS has grown by 10.9% per year over the past 5 years and has declined by 1.1% over the past 10 years. Cash Flow is also rather volatile. If you look at CFPS 5 year running average, CFPS has grown by 3.6% and 3% per year over the past 5 and 7 years.
Analysts expect cash flow to drop by some 37% in 2015. If you compare the 12 months to the end of 2014 with the 12 months to the end of the first quarter, Cash Flow has dropped 5.2%.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% 3 times in the last 10 years and once in the last 5 years. The ROE for 2014 was 14.3% with a 5 year median of 12%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 was 14.4% and the 5 year median value is 11.5%. The close ROE on comprehensive income would suggest that the earnings are of good quality.
Debt ratios are fine, but could be better. This is a financial company and they all tend to have lower Debt Ratios and higher Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios than other sorts of companies. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 2.01, but Liquidity Ratios is not of much importance to financial companies. The Debt Ratio of 1.36 is fine. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also fine at 3.77 and 2.77, respectively.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, July 10, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Intact Financial Corporation is the largest provider of property and casualty insurance in Canada. Intact offers home, auto and business insurance through Intact Insurance, Novex Group Insurance, Belair Direct, GP Car and Home and BrokerLink. Its web site is here Husky.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
AGT Food and Ingredients Inc.
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for July 2015 continue...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Is risk worth possible gains? I would think that there is a fair amount of risk in this company. Not only have they not done well lately, they have fluctuating earnings and cash flow. On the plus side debt ratios are fine. See my spreadsheet at agt.htm.
I do not own this stock of AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (TSX-AGT, OTC- AGXXF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the 2009 Money Show. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trust being currently good buys with very good yield. This stock converted to a corporation in 2009. Company went public in 2005.
This company did not decrease their dividends, but they changed from a monthly dividend to a quarterly dividend when changing to a corporation. Since going to a corporation, this company has only made two dividend increases and they were in 2011 and 2012. Since then dividends have been flat. Not a great dividend growth stock, if it is even a dividend growth stock.
Management has said that dividends will be paid as determined by the Board of Directors. They also say that Management does not anticipate a reduction of the current dividend in the coming periods. Dividends have only grown at 2% and 2.1% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. According to the Bank of Canada, inflation is running under 2% over the past 2, 5 and 10 years.
Shares have grown at 42% and 6.2% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. If I were a shareholder, I would focus on per share values. Shares have increased due to share issues and stock options. Revenue growth has been good. EPS is non-existent to moderate. Cash Flow growth is low to good.
Revenue has grown at 28.5% and 76.3% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 21% and 24.4% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. Analysts expect Revenue growth of around 11% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, Revenue has grown at 5.5%. It is going in the right direction.
EPS has fluctuated a lot since this company went public. They also had two years of losses. EPS is down by 18.9% and up by 7.3% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. It is also worthwhile looking at 5 year running averages because of the big fluctuations in EPS and over the past 5 years, 5 year running averages are down by 29.8%.
Analysts expect growth in EPS to be around 48%. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, EPS is down by 45.8%. It is not going in the right direction.
Cash flow is up by 16.5% and 59.4% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. CFPS is up by 2.3% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. It is also worthwhile looking at 5 year running averages because of the big fluctuations in Cash Flow and over the past 5 years, 5 year running averages are up by 28.6% for Cash Flow and up by 3.7% for CFPS.
Analysts expect growth in Cash Flow of around 300% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, Cash Flow is up by 58%. It is going in the right direction.
Return on Equity was over 10% prior to 2009. Since then it has been under 10%. The ROE for 2014 is just 6.1%. The 5 year median is much lower at 2.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 is 6.1%, but the 5 year median is really low at 0.7%. The earnings for 2014 seem to be of good quality, but this would not appear to be the case for other years.
Debt ratios overall are good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.72. It is important to have a good Liquidity Ratio if earnings fluctuate and 1.72 is a good ratio. The Debt Ratio is 1.54 and this is also a good one. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are a bit high but fine at 2.88 and 1.88. The 5 year median values are 2.36 and 1.36.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are 16.81, 23.75 and 30.69. The 10 year corresponding values are much lower at 5.81, 7.70 and 10.57. The current P/E Ratio is 21.12 based on a stock price of $29.99 and 2015 estimate EPS of $1.42. Because P/E Ratios has grown a lot lately, it is hard to make a relative call on this ratio. A P/E Ratio is sort of moderate. Price is not cheap.
I get a Graham Price of 21.15. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 1.02 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of 29.99. This testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.42. The current P/B Ratio is 2.14 based on a stock price of $29.99 and BVPS of $14.00. The current P/B Ratio is some 51% higher than the 10 year ratio and this testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $33.70. This implies a total return of 14.37% with 2% from dividends and 12.37% from capital gains.
There are some recent analysts' comments at Dakota Financial News. Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool feels positive amount this stock. I do wonder about it being good value because the 5 year average price to earnings is 36.2 and the P/E is much lower today. I think that a P/E Ratio of 36.2 is very high for this sort of stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
AGT Food and Ingredients is one of the largest suppliers of value-added pulses, staple foods and food ingredients in the world. They buy lentils, peas, beans and chickpeas from farmers around their 34 facilities located in the best pulse growing regions in Canada, the United States, Turkey, Australia, China and South Africa and ship their products to over 100 countries around the globe. Its web site is here AGT Foods.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Is risk worth possible gains? I would think that there is a fair amount of risk in this company. Not only have they not done well lately, they have fluctuating earnings and cash flow. On the plus side debt ratios are fine. See my spreadsheet at agt.htm.
I do not own this stock of AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. (TSX-AGT, OTC- AGXXF). I wanted to review all the income trust stocks touted in the 2009 Money Show. There was a lot of talk at this show about some of the Unit Trust being currently good buys with very good yield. This stock converted to a corporation in 2009. Company went public in 2005.
This company did not decrease their dividends, but they changed from a monthly dividend to a quarterly dividend when changing to a corporation. Since going to a corporation, this company has only made two dividend increases and they were in 2011 and 2012. Since then dividends have been flat. Not a great dividend growth stock, if it is even a dividend growth stock.
Management has said that dividends will be paid as determined by the Board of Directors. They also say that Management does not anticipate a reduction of the current dividend in the coming periods. Dividends have only grown at 2% and 2.1% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. According to the Bank of Canada, inflation is running under 2% over the past 2, 5 and 10 years.
Shares have grown at 42% and 6.2% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. If I were a shareholder, I would focus on per share values. Shares have increased due to share issues and stock options. Revenue growth has been good. EPS is non-existent to moderate. Cash Flow growth is low to good.
Revenue has grown at 28.5% and 76.3% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 21% and 24.4% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. Analysts expect Revenue growth of around 11% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, Revenue has grown at 5.5%. It is going in the right direction.
EPS has fluctuated a lot since this company went public. They also had two years of losses. EPS is down by 18.9% and up by 7.3% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. It is also worthwhile looking at 5 year running averages because of the big fluctuations in EPS and over the past 5 years, 5 year running averages are down by 29.8%.
Analysts expect growth in EPS to be around 48%. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, EPS is down by 45.8%. It is not going in the right direction.
Cash flow is up by 16.5% and 59.4% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. CFPS is up by 2.3% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 9 years. It is also worthwhile looking at 5 year running averages because of the big fluctuations in Cash Flow and over the past 5 years, 5 year running averages are up by 28.6% for Cash Flow and up by 3.7% for CFPS.
Analysts expect growth in Cash Flow of around 300% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of 2015 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, Cash Flow is up by 58%. It is going in the right direction.
Return on Equity was over 10% prior to 2009. Since then it has been under 10%. The ROE for 2014 is just 6.1%. The 5 year median is much lower at 2.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income for 2014 is 6.1%, but the 5 year median is really low at 0.7%. The earnings for 2014 seem to be of good quality, but this would not appear to be the case for other years.
Debt ratios overall are good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.72. It is important to have a good Liquidity Ratio if earnings fluctuate and 1.72 is a good ratio. The Debt Ratio is 1.54 and this is also a good one. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are a bit high but fine at 2.88 and 1.88. The 5 year median values are 2.36 and 1.36.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratio are 16.81, 23.75 and 30.69. The 10 year corresponding values are much lower at 5.81, 7.70 and 10.57. The current P/E Ratio is 21.12 based on a stock price of $29.99 and 2015 estimate EPS of $1.42. Because P/E Ratios has grown a lot lately, it is hard to make a relative call on this ratio. A P/E Ratio is sort of moderate. Price is not cheap.
I get a Graham Price of 21.15. The 10 years low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 1.02 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of 29.99. This testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.42. The current P/B Ratio is 2.14 based on a stock price of $29.99 and BVPS of $14.00. The current P/B Ratio is some 51% higher than the 10 year ratio and this testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $33.70. This implies a total return of 14.37% with 2% from dividends and 12.37% from capital gains.
There are some recent analysts' comments at Dakota Financial News. Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool feels positive amount this stock. I do wonder about it being good value because the 5 year average price to earnings is 36.2 and the P/E is much lower today. I think that a P/E Ratio of 36.2 is very high for this sort of stock.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
AGT Food and Ingredients is one of the largest suppliers of value-added pulses, staple foods and food ingredients in the world. They buy lentils, peas, beans and chickpeas from farmers around their 34 facilities located in the best pulse growing regions in Canada, the United States, Turkey, Australia, China and South Africa and ship their products to over 100 countries around the globe. Its web site is here AGT Foods.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is reasonable to expensive. The easy money has already been made on this stock. When I bought stock in this company it had a market cap of $115M and it is now $1B. They have just slowed during an oil/gas bear market and so really have not done that badly. It could easily take off when the price of oil and gas recover. However, insiders seem to selling not buying at the present time. I will currently hold on to the shares I have. See my spreadsheet at cmg.htm.
I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF). I bought this company in 2008 because it is a dividend paying growth stock that would also be considered to be a small cap with a capitalization of around $115 million. Insiders are currently buying this stock. It has great growth and it is information technology, a favourite sector of mine. When I sold some of my TD Bank stock in June 2009, I bought some more. Because the stock grew rapidly and because it is a tech stock, I sold some shares in 2011 to lock in profit.
Outstanding shares were increased by around 876,000 shares in 2015 financial year for stock options. This is around 1.13% of outstanding shares. They are giving out a lot more stock options than other companies are, but tech companies tend to do this. In insider trading there was $2.3M of insider selling and $0.6M of insider buying and net insider selling of $1.7M. This is around 0.17% of the company's market cap and this is a little on the high side for net insider selling.
There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $25m and 2.6% of the outstanding shares. An officer owes shares worth around $22.5M and some 2.3% of the outstanding shares. The chairman owns shares worth around $4.6M and some 0.5% of the outstanding shares. Some of the insider own less shares than they did at my last review. For example, the CEO used to own some 3.86M shares and now owns 2.01M shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.47, 28.46 and 35.34. They are higher than the 10 year corresponding values of 14.12, 19.86 and 24.37. The current P/E Rati is 31.98 based on a stock price of $13.11 and 2016 stock price of $0.41. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. However, the price is towards to top end of the reasonableness scale.
I get a Graham Price of $2.73. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.93, 2.86 and 3.59. These are rather high ratios. The current P/GP Ratio is 4.80 based on a stock price of $13.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 9.31. This is quite a high P/B Ratio. The current ratio at 16.22 is some 74% higher. A P/B Ratio of 16.22 is a high ratio. The current ratio is based on a BVPS of $0.81 and a stock price of $13.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.40%. The current dividend yield is 3.05% based on a stock price of $13.11 and dividends of $0.40. The current yield is some 10.3% lower than the 5 year median. I would prefer for the current dividend yield to be higher than the 5 year median dividend yield, but it is not that much lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The historical median dividend yield is also 3.40% and testing against that would give you also a relatively reasonable stock price. Also, the historical median close dividend yield is 2.97%, some 2.9% lower than the current dividend yield of 3.05% and this testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $14.30. This implies a total return of 12.13% with 3.05% from dividends and 9.08% from capital gains.
Nick Waddell at CanTech thought that this company was a buy in February of 2015. In a recent report TD moved CMG ratings to Hold says Dakota Financial News.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, July 06, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF). I bought this company in 2008 because it is a dividend paying growth stock that would also be considered to be a small cap with a capitalization of around $115 million. Insiders are currently buying this stock. It has great growth and it is information technology, a favourite sector of mine. When I sold some of my TD Bank stock in June 2009, I bought some more. Because the stock grew rapidly and because it is a tech stock, I sold some shares in 2011 to lock in profit.
Outstanding shares were increased by around 876,000 shares in 2015 financial year for stock options. This is around 1.13% of outstanding shares. They are giving out a lot more stock options than other companies are, but tech companies tend to do this. In insider trading there was $2.3M of insider selling and $0.6M of insider buying and net insider selling of $1.7M. This is around 0.17% of the company's market cap and this is a little on the high side for net insider selling.
There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $25m and 2.6% of the outstanding shares. An officer owes shares worth around $22.5M and some 2.3% of the outstanding shares. The chairman owns shares worth around $4.6M and some 0.5% of the outstanding shares. Some of the insider own less shares than they did at my last review. For example, the CEO used to own some 3.86M shares and now owns 2.01M shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.47, 28.46 and 35.34. They are higher than the 10 year corresponding values of 14.12, 19.86 and 24.37. The current P/E Rati is 31.98 based on a stock price of $13.11 and 2016 stock price of $0.41. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. However, the price is towards to top end of the reasonableness scale.
I get a Graham Price of $2.73. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.93, 2.86 and 3.59. These are rather high ratios. The current P/GP Ratio is 4.80 based on a stock price of $13.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 9.31. This is quite a high P/B Ratio. The current ratio at 16.22 is some 74% higher. A P/B Ratio of 16.22 is a high ratio. The current ratio is based on a BVPS of $0.81 and a stock price of $13.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 5 year median dividend yield is 3.40%. The current dividend yield is 3.05% based on a stock price of $13.11 and dividends of $0.40. The current yield is some 10.3% lower than the 5 year median. I would prefer for the current dividend yield to be higher than the 5 year median dividend yield, but it is not that much lower. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The historical median dividend yield is also 3.40% and testing against that would give you also a relatively reasonable stock price. Also, the historical median close dividend yield is 2.97%, some 2.9% lower than the current dividend yield of 3.05% and this testing would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $14.30. This implies a total return of 12.13% with 3.05% from dividends and 9.08% from capital gains.
Nick Waddell at CanTech thought that this company was a buy in February of 2015. In a recent report TD moved CMG ratings to Hold says Dakota Financial News.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, July 06, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, July 6, 2015
Computer Modelling Group Ltd
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for July 2015 continue...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech Stocks. I have done very well in this stock. It may be slowing down currently, but I will continue to hold the shares I have because I believe that the company has a good future ahead. See my spreadsheet at cmg.htm.
I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF). I bought this company in 2008 because it is a dividend paying growth stock that would also be considered to be a small cap with a capitalization of around $115 million. Insiders are currently buying this stock. It has great growth and it is information technology a favourite sector of mine. When I sold some of my TD Bank stock in June 2009, I bought some more. Because the stock grew rapidly and because it is a tech stock, I sold some shares in 2011 to lock in profit.
The dividend yield and the dividend growth are both good on this stock. However, dividend growth has been slowing down lately. The current dividend yield is 3.05% based on a stock price of $13.11. The dividends have growth at 17.3% and 34.9% over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and it was a 5.3% increase. They have also given out special dividends from time to time.
The payout ratios, especially for earnings are high. However, once the company collects data for its software it can sell it multiple times. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2014 is 97.6% and the 5 year median is 101%. The DPR for CFPS is 63% in 2014 and the 5 year median is 71%.
I have held this stock for around 7 years and my Dividend Yield on my original stock cost is 17.4% and to date my dividends have covered some 76% of my original stock purchase price. If a median price was paid after 5 and 10 years, shareholders would have gotten 7.55% and 48.5% dividend yield on their original cost. Also if a median price was paid, the dividends to date after 5 and 10 years would cover 34.7% and 319% of the original cost.
The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 19.48% and 38.58% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to dividend is 4.29% and 8.08% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to capital gain is 15.19% and 30.50% per year. Do not forget that past return may not reflect future returns. The overall market is currently slowing down as is this stock. Also, do not forget that this stock services the oil and gas industry and these markets are at a low point.
Outstanding shares have increased by 1.9% and 2.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This makes the per share value important. Shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow are all good. However, analysts do expect slow to no growth in the next financial period.
Revenue has grown at 13.4% and 18.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 11.2% and 16% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For the financial year ending in March 2015, Revenue grew at 13.9% and for the financial year ending March 2016, analysts do expect Revenue growth of just 3.9%
EPS grew at 15.4% and 22.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For the financial year ending in March 2015, EPS grew at 17% and for the financial year ending March 2016, analysts do not expect any EPS growth at all.
Cash Flow grew at 24.7% and 27.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS grew at 22.4% and 24.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For the financial year ending in March 2015, CFPS grew at 23.8% and for the financial year ending March 2016, analysts do expect CFPS declining by around 15%.
The Return on Equity is very high, coming in at 51.4% in 2014 and the 5 year median ROE is 48.3%. They make a high profit because they can sell the same software to more than one customer. The Operational Profit Margin (CF/Revenue) Ratio is 48% for the financial year ending in March 2015.
Debt ratios are very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.42 and the Debt Ratio is 2.48 for the March 2015 financial year. I like anything 1.50 and higher. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.68 and 0.68.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, July 7, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech Stocks. I have done very well in this stock. It may be slowing down currently, but I will continue to hold the shares I have because I believe that the company has a good future ahead. See my spreadsheet at cmg.htm.
I own this stock of Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (TSX-CMG, OTC-CMDXF). I bought this company in 2008 because it is a dividend paying growth stock that would also be considered to be a small cap with a capitalization of around $115 million. Insiders are currently buying this stock. It has great growth and it is information technology a favourite sector of mine. When I sold some of my TD Bank stock in June 2009, I bought some more. Because the stock grew rapidly and because it is a tech stock, I sold some shares in 2011 to lock in profit.
The dividend yield and the dividend growth are both good on this stock. However, dividend growth has been slowing down lately. The current dividend yield is 3.05% based on a stock price of $13.11. The dividends have growth at 17.3% and 34.9% over the past 5 and 10 years. The last dividend increase was in 2015 and it was a 5.3% increase. They have also given out special dividends from time to time.
The payout ratios, especially for earnings are high. However, once the company collects data for its software it can sell it multiple times. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS for 2014 is 97.6% and the 5 year median is 101%. The DPR for CFPS is 63% in 2014 and the 5 year median is 71%.
I have held this stock for around 7 years and my Dividend Yield on my original stock cost is 17.4% and to date my dividends have covered some 76% of my original stock purchase price. If a median price was paid after 5 and 10 years, shareholders would have gotten 7.55% and 48.5% dividend yield on their original cost. Also if a median price was paid, the dividends to date after 5 and 10 years would cover 34.7% and 319% of the original cost.
The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 19.48% and 38.58% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to dividend is 4.29% and 8.08% per year. The portion of the total return attributable to capital gain is 15.19% and 30.50% per year. Do not forget that past return may not reflect future returns. The overall market is currently slowing down as is this stock. Also, do not forget that this stock services the oil and gas industry and these markets are at a low point.
Outstanding shares have increased by 1.9% and 2.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This makes the per share value important. Shares have increased due to stock options and decreased due to Buy Backs. Growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow are all good. However, analysts do expect slow to no growth in the next financial period.
Revenue has grown at 13.4% and 18.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share has grown at 11.2% and 16% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For the financial year ending in March 2015, Revenue grew at 13.9% and for the financial year ending March 2016, analysts do expect Revenue growth of just 3.9%
EPS grew at 15.4% and 22.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For the financial year ending in March 2015, EPS grew at 17% and for the financial year ending March 2016, analysts do not expect any EPS growth at all.
Cash Flow grew at 24.7% and 27.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS grew at 22.4% and 24.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. For the financial year ending in March 2015, CFPS grew at 23.8% and for the financial year ending March 2016, analysts do expect CFPS declining by around 15%.
The Return on Equity is very high, coming in at 51.4% in 2014 and the 5 year median ROE is 48.3%. They make a high profit because they can sell the same software to more than one customer. The Operational Profit Margin (CF/Revenue) Ratio is 48% for the financial year ending in March 2015.
Debt ratios are very good. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.42 and the Debt Ratio is 2.48 for the March 2015 financial year. I like anything 1.50 and higher. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.68 and 0.68.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, July 7, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a computer software technology and consulting company serving the oil and gas industry. CMG is the leading supplier of advanced processes reservoir modelling software in the world with a blue chip client base of international oil companies and technology centers in approximately 50 countries. Its web site is here Computer Modelling.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, July 3, 2015
Parkland Fuel Corp. 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price seems expensive. If they could convert some of the growth in revenue to growth in earnings and cash flow, the price would be relatively reasonable. See my spreadsheet at pki.htm.
I do not own this stock of Parkland Fuel Corp. (TSX-PKI, OTC- PKIUF). I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock as it was a stock recommended by Roger Conrad in Money Show 2013. Roger Conrad currently writes in the Capitalist Times. He is usually a speaker at Money Shows. Here is a bit of blurb on Roger Conrad.
When I look at insider trading over the past year I find no insider selling and no insider buying. In 2014, outstanding share were increased by some 509,000 shares for stock options. This is 0.62% of the outstanding shares and is a little high. These shares have a book value of $6.4M and this number of shares was worth $11.1M at the end of 2014. I think that stock option issued over 0.50% is of outstanding share is high.
In insider ownership, the CEO owns shares worth some $2.5M, a director owns shares worth around $1.1M and the chairman owns shares worth around $5.9M. All this adds up to less than 1% of the outstanding shares, so are relatively small amounts of this company.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 12.55, 14.55 and 17.62. These ratios are higher than the corresponding 10 year values of 9.44, 12.64 and 15.89. However, the historical median P/E Ratio is 14.55, which is at the same level as the 5 year P/E median ratio. The current P/E Ratio is 31.35. This is based on a stock price of $25.39 and 2015 EPS estimate of 0.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham price of $11.57. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.03, 1.59 and 1.29. The P/GP Ratio is 2.19 based on a stock price of $25.39. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share of 3.02. The current P/B Ratio is 3.46 based on a stock price of $25.39 and BVPS of $7.34. The current P/B Ratio is only some 14.5% higher than the 10 year value and would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable. However, I do think that P/B Ratio of 3.02 is a rather high one. It would seem that the P/B Ratio has always been rather high on this stock and the historical median P/B Ratio is 2.78.
I do not think that testing of the stock price using dividend yield would be of any value. The dividend yields on this stock have in the past been quite high with an historical high of 21.95 and an historical median of 9.03%. It was felt that old income trust stocks would end up with a dividend yield between 4 and 5% and this is where this stock is as its dividend yield is 4.25%.
The 10 year median Price/Cash Value per Share Ratio is 6.98. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.51 based on CFPS estimate for 2015 of $1.75 and a stock price of $25.39. The current P/CF Ratio is some 108% higher than the 10 year median P/CF Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is expensive. I think that the P/CF Ratio of 6.98 is a good one and perhaps a low ratio, but a ratio is 14.51 is a high one.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 0.24 and the current P/S Ratio is 0.27 based on 2015 estimate for Revenue per Share of $94.39 and a stock price of $24.39. The current P/S Ratio is some 13% above the 10 year median and so suggests that the stock price, although above the median is still relatively reasonable. Also a P/S Ratio of 0.27 is absolutely low. I think a P/S Ratio of 1.00 or lower is a low ratio.
The better showing on the P/S Ratio fits with the fact that this company has been able to grow revenue much better than it has been above to growth earnings or cash flow. What the company needs to do now is grow earnings and cash flow.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. (See my blog for information on Analyst Ratings.)
The 12 month target stock price is $24.40. This implies total returns of $4.29% with 4.25% from dividends and 0.04% from capital gains. This stock has done well lately with the stock being up some 16.8% already this year after a 17.7% increase last year.
In a recent press release on Stockhouse this company announced an acquisition, an appointment to their board of directors and Revised 2015 guidance. Recently a couple of analysts raised their 12 month stock price for Parkland Fuel. In September 2014, Cameron Conway of Motley Fool says this company is the best energy stock that you have never heard of.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, July 02, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Parkland Fuel Corporation is a marketer and distributor of fuels, managing a nationwide network of sales channels for retail, commercial, wholesale and home heating fuel customers. Its web site is here Parkland Fuel.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Parkland Fuel Corp. (TSX-PKI, OTC- PKIUF). I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock as it was a stock recommended by Roger Conrad in Money Show 2013. Roger Conrad currently writes in the Capitalist Times. He is usually a speaker at Money Shows. Here is a bit of blurb on Roger Conrad.
When I look at insider trading over the past year I find no insider selling and no insider buying. In 2014, outstanding share were increased by some 509,000 shares for stock options. This is 0.62% of the outstanding shares and is a little high. These shares have a book value of $6.4M and this number of shares was worth $11.1M at the end of 2014. I think that stock option issued over 0.50% is of outstanding share is high.
In insider ownership, the CEO owns shares worth some $2.5M, a director owns shares worth around $1.1M and the chairman owns shares worth around $5.9M. All this adds up to less than 1% of the outstanding shares, so are relatively small amounts of this company.
I get 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios of 12.55, 14.55 and 17.62. These ratios are higher than the corresponding 10 year values of 9.44, 12.64 and 15.89. However, the historical median P/E Ratio is 14.55, which is at the same level as the 5 year P/E median ratio. The current P/E Ratio is 31.35. This is based on a stock price of $25.39 and 2015 EPS estimate of 0.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a Graham price of $11.57. The 10 year Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.03, 1.59 and 1.29. The P/GP Ratio is 2.19 based on a stock price of $25.39. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share of 3.02. The current P/B Ratio is 3.46 based on a stock price of $25.39 and BVPS of $7.34. The current P/B Ratio is only some 14.5% higher than the 10 year value and would suggest that the stock price is relatively reasonable. However, I do think that P/B Ratio of 3.02 is a rather high one. It would seem that the P/B Ratio has always been rather high on this stock and the historical median P/B Ratio is 2.78.
I do not think that testing of the stock price using dividend yield would be of any value. The dividend yields on this stock have in the past been quite high with an historical high of 21.95 and an historical median of 9.03%. It was felt that old income trust stocks would end up with a dividend yield between 4 and 5% and this is where this stock is as its dividend yield is 4.25%.
The 10 year median Price/Cash Value per Share Ratio is 6.98. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.51 based on CFPS estimate for 2015 of $1.75 and a stock price of $25.39. The current P/CF Ratio is some 108% higher than the 10 year median P/CF Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock is expensive. I think that the P/CF Ratio of 6.98 is a good one and perhaps a low ratio, but a ratio is 14.51 is a high one.
The 10 year median P/S Ratio is 0.24 and the current P/S Ratio is 0.27 based on 2015 estimate for Revenue per Share of $94.39 and a stock price of $24.39. The current P/S Ratio is some 13% above the 10 year median and so suggests that the stock price, although above the median is still relatively reasonable. Also a P/S Ratio of 0.27 is absolutely low. I think a P/S Ratio of 1.00 or lower is a low ratio.
The better showing on the P/S Ratio fits with the fact that this company has been able to grow revenue much better than it has been above to growth earnings or cash flow. What the company needs to do now is grow earnings and cash flow.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Hold and the consensus recommendation is a Hold. (See my blog for information on Analyst Ratings.)
The 12 month target stock price is $24.40. This implies total returns of $4.29% with 4.25% from dividends and 0.04% from capital gains. This stock has done well lately with the stock being up some 16.8% already this year after a 17.7% increase last year.
In a recent press release on Stockhouse this company announced an acquisition, an appointment to their board of directors and Revised 2015 guidance. Recently a couple of analysts raised their 12 month stock price for Parkland Fuel. In September 2014, Cameron Conway of Motley Fool says this company is the best energy stock that you have never heard of.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, July 02, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Parkland Fuel Corporation is a marketer and distributor of fuels, managing a nationwide network of sales channels for retail, commercial, wholesale and home heating fuel customers. Its web site is here Parkland Fuel.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, July 2, 2015
Parkland Fuel Corp.
On my other blog I am today writing Dividends Covering a Stock's Cost continue...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Energy Stock. See my spreadsheet at pki.htm.
I do not own this stock of Parkland Fuel Corp. (TSX-PKI, OTC- PKIUF). I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock as it was a stock recommended by Roger Conrad in Money Show 2013.
This is another old income trust company that converted to a corporation in 2010. At that time it decreased its dividend by some 19%. Since then it has been modestly increasing their dividends. Dividends are up by around 1.7% per year. The last increase was in 2015 and it was for 1.9%. Dividend increases were higher prior to 2010 and the 10 years dividend growth is at 6.3% per year. This is even after the dividend cut and the low growth in dividends since 2010.
This stock had quite high dividends in the past and has an historical high dividend yield at around 21%. It was felt that the old income trust stocks would end up, after dividends cuts and/or stock increases, with dividends in the 4 to5% range. This stock current has a dividend at 4.25%.
It would appear that this company is paying out too much in dividends at the current time. The 5 year Payout Ratios for EPS is 142%. The 5 year Payout Ratio for EPS is much better at 62%. However, the EPS Payout Ratio is mitigated by two things. The first is the rapid increase in shares which means that dividend payout increases as the year advances. The other is under DRIP where extra shares are given in place of cash. If you look strictly at cash paid in dividends then in 2014 the company paid out only 49% of their net income in cash dividends.
Shareholders have done quite well in this company over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 and 10 year Total Return is at 24.07% and 27.24% per year. The portion attributed to capital gain is 17.18% and 14.36% per year. The portion attributed to dividends is 6.89% and 12.88% per year.
The future will not be the same for a couple of reason. This old income trusts shares have already increased due to the change to a corporation. Also, dividend yields are a lot lower. The current dividend yield is 4.25% compared to the past dividend yields for total return over the past 5 and 10 years of 6.89% and 12.88%.
Total return on dividend growth stocks tend to be equal to the growth in dividends plus the dividend yield. The current growth in dividends for 2015 was just 1.9%. The current dividend yield is 4.25%. This would suggest much lower total return over the next while. On the other hand this company expects to grow by acquisitions.
This company has increased their outstanding shares by 10.3% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If I were a shareholder, I would be most interested in per share values. The growth in Revenue has been good. The growth in EPS is none to good and growth in Cash Flow is none to good.
The growth in Revenue is at 30% and 27% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The growth in Revenue per Share is at 17.9% and 17.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect little growth in Revenue in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, Revenue is down by 8.4%.
EPS is down by 7.4% and up by 20% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. 2014 was not a good year for this company in terms of earnings. Analysts do expect good growth in EPS for 2014. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, EPS is down by 9.1%. So EPS is not yet going in the right direction.
Cash Flow is up by 8.1% and 15.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, CFPS is down by 25 and up by 6.8% per year over these periods. Analysts expect a decline in Cash Flow for 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, Cash Flow is up by 59%. Cash flow is going in the right direction.
Return on Equity has been over 10% for each of the past 10 years expect for 2014 where the ROE was just 8.8%. The 5 year median ROE is 15.7%. The ROE from comprehensive income is a bit better for 2014 at 9.1%. The 5 year median ROE is also 15.7%. 2014 was not a good year for earnings for this company.
The debt ratios are fine except that the ones for Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a bit high. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.92. The Debt Ratio is 1.59. I like any ratio of 1.50 and higher. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2014 was 2.69 and 1.69. These ratios hit a peak in 2010 and have been falling ever since.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, July 3, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Parkland Fuel Corporation is a marketer and distributor of fuels, managing a nationwide network of sales channels for retail, commercial, wholesale and home heating fuel customers. Its web site is here Parkland Fuel.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Energy Stock. See my spreadsheet at pki.htm.
I do not own this stock of Parkland Fuel Corp. (TSX-PKI, OTC- PKIUF). I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock as it was a stock recommended by Roger Conrad in Money Show 2013.
This is another old income trust company that converted to a corporation in 2010. At that time it decreased its dividend by some 19%. Since then it has been modestly increasing their dividends. Dividends are up by around 1.7% per year. The last increase was in 2015 and it was for 1.9%. Dividend increases were higher prior to 2010 and the 10 years dividend growth is at 6.3% per year. This is even after the dividend cut and the low growth in dividends since 2010.
This stock had quite high dividends in the past and has an historical high dividend yield at around 21%. It was felt that the old income trust stocks would end up, after dividends cuts and/or stock increases, with dividends in the 4 to5% range. This stock current has a dividend at 4.25%.
It would appear that this company is paying out too much in dividends at the current time. The 5 year Payout Ratios for EPS is 142%. The 5 year Payout Ratio for EPS is much better at 62%. However, the EPS Payout Ratio is mitigated by two things. The first is the rapid increase in shares which means that dividend payout increases as the year advances. The other is under DRIP where extra shares are given in place of cash. If you look strictly at cash paid in dividends then in 2014 the company paid out only 49% of their net income in cash dividends.
Shareholders have done quite well in this company over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 and 10 year Total Return is at 24.07% and 27.24% per year. The portion attributed to capital gain is 17.18% and 14.36% per year. The portion attributed to dividends is 6.89% and 12.88% per year.
The future will not be the same for a couple of reason. This old income trusts shares have already increased due to the change to a corporation. Also, dividend yields are a lot lower. The current dividend yield is 4.25% compared to the past dividend yields for total return over the past 5 and 10 years of 6.89% and 12.88%.
Total return on dividend growth stocks tend to be equal to the growth in dividends plus the dividend yield. The current growth in dividends for 2015 was just 1.9%. The current dividend yield is 4.25%. This would suggest much lower total return over the next while. On the other hand this company expects to grow by acquisitions.
This company has increased their outstanding shares by 10.3% and 8.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If I were a shareholder, I would be most interested in per share values. The growth in Revenue has been good. The growth in EPS is none to good and growth in Cash Flow is none to good.
The growth in Revenue is at 30% and 27% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The growth in Revenue per Share is at 17.9% and 17.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect little growth in Revenue in 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, Revenue is down by 8.4%.
EPS is down by 7.4% and up by 20% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. 2014 was not a good year for this company in terms of earnings. Analysts do expect good growth in EPS for 2014. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, EPS is down by 9.1%. So EPS is not yet going in the right direction.
Cash Flow is up by 8.1% and 15.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, CFPS is down by 25 and up by 6.8% per year over these periods. Analysts expect a decline in Cash Flow for 2015. If you compare the 12 month period to the end of 2014 and the 12 month period to the end of the first quarter, Cash Flow is up by 59%. Cash flow is going in the right direction.
Return on Equity has been over 10% for each of the past 10 years expect for 2014 where the ROE was just 8.8%. The 5 year median ROE is 15.7%. The ROE from comprehensive income is a bit better for 2014 at 9.1%. The 5 year median ROE is also 15.7%. 2014 was not a good year for earnings for this company.
The debt ratios are fine except that the ones for Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a bit high. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.92. The Debt Ratio is 1.59. I like any ratio of 1.50 and higher. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2014 was 2.69 and 1.69. These ratios hit a peak in 2010 and have been falling ever since.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, July 3, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Parkland Fuel Corporation is a marketer and distributor of fuels, managing a nationwide network of sales channels for retail, commercial, wholesale and home heating fuel customers. Its web site is here Parkland Fuel.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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