Suncor Energy Inc.

On my other blog I am today writing about Ben Hunt posting about how he thinks that EU and Greece are playing a game of chicken continue...

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth oil company. Suncor has done well since merging with Petro-Canada 5 years ago. However, it is not doing well at present because of the price of oil. See my spreadsheet at su.htm.

I do not own this stock of Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU, NYSE-SU). I started following this stock as Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). It was on Mike Higgs' list of dividend growth stocks. This was also a key stock for the Investment Reporter. My spreadsheet follows PCA into SU. PCA and SU merged in 2009. Anyone looking at this stock would have had to followed SU or PCA into the merger which was only 5 years ago.

This stock used to have very low dividends and very good increases. The historical median dividend is just 0.56%. The 5 and 10 year dividend increases are at 27.7% and 27% per year. However, dividend increases were a little in consistent with the good dividend increases in the years from 2004 to 2010. Currently the dividend is at an all-time high of 3.29%.

This stock peaked in 2007, 2008 and has basically just mucked around since. It is since this time that the dividend yield started to grow from a value below 1% to where it is today. Oil and oil stocks are not doing well at present because of the drop in Oil prices.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently fine. The DPR for 2014 was 55.4% for EPS and 16.3% for CFPS. The 5 year median values are 27.9% for EPS and 9.32% for CFPS. So these ratios have been increasing. Analysts expect these ratios to be even higher this year at 172% for EPS and 24.5% for CFPS before dropping again in 2016.

Total return on this company has been low lately with the 5 and 10 years values at a negative 0.26% and positive 0.70% per year. The portion attributed to capital loss is at 2.34% and 0.69% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The portion attributed to dividends is at 2.08% and 1.39% per year. If you are holding for the longer term, at least not much has been lost and things are bound to change when the price of oil recovers.

The outstanding shares have decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The shares have increased due to Stock Options and DRIP. The shares have decreased due to Buy Backs. Revenue growth is low to good. EPS is moderate to good. Cash flow growth is non-existent to good. However, since there is a real break in reporting such things before and after 2009 the date of the merger, I will just talk about what has happened since then.

Revenue is up by 9.75 per year over the past 5 years. Revenue per share is up by 11.4% per year. Analysts expect the Revenue to drop by some 20% in 2015. If you look at the 12 month Revenue to the end of 2014 and the 12 month Revenue to the end of the first quarter, then Revenue is down by 7.6%.

EPS is up by 14.1% per year over the past 5 years. Here also analysts expect a big drop in EPS of around 65%. If you look at the 12 month EPS to the end of 2014 and the 12 month EPS to the end of the first quarter, then EPS is down by 68%.

Cash Flow is up by 26.4% per year over the past 5 years. CFPS is up by 28.3% per year over the past 5 years. Analysts also expect a drop in cash flow in 2015 of around 26%. If you look at the 12 month Cash Flow to the end of 2014 and the 12 month Cash Flow to the end of the first quarter, then Cash Flow is down by 9.6%.

The Return on Equity has only breached 10% once in the past 5 years. The ROE for 2014 was 6.5% and the 5 year median was 9.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income was a bit higher in 2014 at 7.1% with its 5 year median at 9.1%. Comprehensive income basically supports net income values and this suggests that the earnings are of good quality.

The debt ratios are currently good. The Liquidity Ratio has often been low, but in 2014 it was 1.67. The Debt Ratio for 2014 was also good at 2.09 and this ratio has often been very good. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also currently good at 1.92 and 0.92 for 2014.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, July 14, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Suncor Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Suncor is also developing a growing renewable energy portfolio. Their international and offshore business includes operations in the North Sea (United Kingdom, Netherlands and Norway) and the East Coast of Canada. They are also in Libya, Syria and Trinidad and Tobago. Its web site is here Suncor.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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