Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Core REIT holding. Companies have their ups and downs and are not always great all the time. If you are a long term investor, you can expect this and make allowances for it. However, overall you need to do well in a stock to keep it. I believe I have done well in this stock in the long term. See my spreadsheet at rei.htm.
I own this stock of RioCan Real Estate (TSX-REI.UN, OTC-RIOCF). I first bought this stock 1998 because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. It was a stock covered and recommended by MPL Communications in their Income Trust coverage. Over the years I have made several more purchases of this REIT.
The distribution growth rate has been low lately. The problem is that the Dividend Payout Ratios were too high. The 5 year median DPR for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is 99.3%. Until 2011 it was over 100%. The DPR for AFFO for 2014 is 93.4% a much better figure. It is expected to continue to decline even with expected dividend increases.
For 4 of the past 5 years, there has been no dividend increases. This makes the dividend growth rate low for the last 5 years. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth rate is 0.4% and 1.4%. The only increase was in 2013 and it was for 2.2%. Some analysts think that there will be some minor increases in 2015 and /or 2016.
This is a REIT and what I would expect from dividends would be a good dividend rate and growth at or just above the inflation level. Until recently, this REIT met my expectation. Currently the growth in distributions has been low but I do expect this to improve when they back to doing dividend increases.
According to the Bank of Canada, inflation in Canada is running at 1.45% over the past 10 years, 1.13% over the past 5 years and 0.85% over the past 3 years for total inflation. Also it is running at 1.56% over the past 10 years, 1.34% over the past 5 years and 1.24% over the past 3 years for core inflation.
I have done well in this stock. The current dividend yield on my stock bought in 1998 is 12.88% and for that bought in 2000 it is 16.89%. If you look at all my purchases, I have paid $18.97 per share. My dividends to date under this stock are at $15.24 per share. This means that 80% of my purchase price has been paid by dividends.
Over all my total return is at 15.18% per year with 6.78% per year from capital gains and 8.40% from dividends. The 5 and 10 year total return is 10.49% and 7.50% per year with 4.66% and 1.94% per year from capital gains and 5.83 and 5.55% per year from dividends. When interest rates start to rise again at some future date, capital gains will decline.
The outstanding units have increased by 5.5% and 5.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Units have increased due to Units Issued, DRIP and Stock Options. Units have decreased due to buy backs. As with other REITs, the change in accounting rules in 2011 dramatically affected both EPS and Book Values. Growth in the last 5 years has been better than in the last 10 years for Revenue, AFFO, FFO and Cash Flow. As a shareholder, I am more interested in per share values to properly judge growth.
Revenue has grown at 9.7% and 7.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is a lot lower at 4% and 1.9% per year.
AFFO and FFO growth is moderate for the last 5 years and low for the last 10 years. The AFFO growth is 6.7% and 2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. FFO growth is 6.6% and 2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
You can see big differences in Cash Flow and Cash Flow per Share growth as you can for Revenue. The Cash Flow growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 13.8% and 7% per year. CFPS is at 8% and 1.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Debt Ratio and Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are all good. The Debt Ratio for 2014 is 2.16 and the 5 year median value is 2.13. The Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios for 2014 are 1.87 and 0.87. The 10 year median values are higher at 2.67 and 1.67. This is because the ratios have been declining lately.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, March 16, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
RioCan is Canada's largest real estate investment trust exclusively focused on retail real estate. Their core strategy is to own and manage community-oriented neighbourhood shopping centers anchored by supermarkets, together with a rapidly expanding mix of new format retail centers. RioCan owns interests in 51 centers in the United States located in the Northeastern United States and Texas, managed through its offices in New Jersey and Dallas. Its web site is here RioCan.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, March 13, 2015
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price expensive? I heard a commentator recently that said that Canadian REITs were within 3% of their all-time highs. It is only on the AFFO and FFO measures that this stock price is reasonable. Use other measures, like Dividend Yield, Revenue or Cash Flow and stock is looking expensive. See my spreadsheet at ap.htm.
I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed last year were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.
Over the past year in insider trading there was 1.4M of insider buying and $20.5M of insider selling with net insider selling at 19.01M and 0.67% of market cap. This is relatively a small amount of insider selling.
There is some insider ownership with the CEO owning units worth around $36.4M, a director owning units worth around $17.8M and a Chairman owning units worth around $1.5M. However, all this barely reaches 2% of outstanding units.
In 2014 outstanding units were increased by some 787,000 units for stock options. Since this is some 1.05% of the outstanding units it is relatively high, but other REITs have had similar relative amounts of stock options. For the previous two years, stock options were lower at 0.07% and 0.36% of outstanding units.
The 5 year median Price/Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratio is 19.55. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 19.16 based on 2015 AFFO estimate of $1.98 and a stock price of $37.93. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 2% of the 5 year median value and this indicates that the current stock price is relatively reasonable.
You get the same sort of story using Price/Funds from Operations Ratio where the 5 year median P/FFO Ratio at16.73 and a current P/FFO Ratio at 16.78 are less than 1% different. The current P/FFO Ratio is based on 2015 FFO estimate of $2.26 and a stock price of $37.93.
However, for both of these tests you get a different story using 10 year P/FFO and P/AFFO Ratios. Here the difference is much higher. The 10 year P/AFFO Ratio is 16.68 a value some 15% lower than the current P/AFFO Ratio of 19.16. For P/FFO, the 10 year median P/FFO Ratio is 13.71 and is some 22% lower than the current P/FFO Ratio of 16.78. With this testing the stock price is beginning to look expensive.
I think that looking at historical low dividend yields is best to begin with when looking at yields. The historical low is 4.12% and the current dividend yield is lower by 6.6% at 3.85%. This would suggest that the stock price is expensive. Even looking at the 5 year median dividend yield, which is some 4.71%, the current dividend yield is some 18% lower.
Looking at P/S Ratios and P/CF Ratios really tell the same story. The 10 year P/S Ratio is 5.64 and the current one at 8.00 is some 42% higher. The 10 year P/CF Ratio is 16.66 and the current P/CF Ratio at 19.18 is some 15% higher. This testing suggests that the stock is looking expensive.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. Since most of the recommendations are a Buy, the consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $42.70. This implies a total return of 16.425 with 3.85% from distributions and 12.58% from capital gains.
This Market Wired article talks about a recent acquisition by Allied REIT. This is another Market Wired article about a 2014 acquisition by Allied REIT. This company reported on 2014 year end via Market Watch.
REITs did very well over the period of declining interest rates. At some point interest rate will go up. The problem is no one knows when this will happen.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Allied Properties REIT owns a portfolio of predominantly Class I office properties in Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Ottawa, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Kitchener-Waterloo. Its web site is here Allied REIT.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed last year were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.
Over the past year in insider trading there was 1.4M of insider buying and $20.5M of insider selling with net insider selling at 19.01M and 0.67% of market cap. This is relatively a small amount of insider selling.
There is some insider ownership with the CEO owning units worth around $36.4M, a director owning units worth around $17.8M and a Chairman owning units worth around $1.5M. However, all this barely reaches 2% of outstanding units.
In 2014 outstanding units were increased by some 787,000 units for stock options. Since this is some 1.05% of the outstanding units it is relatively high, but other REITs have had similar relative amounts of stock options. For the previous two years, stock options were lower at 0.07% and 0.36% of outstanding units.
The 5 year median Price/Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratio is 19.55. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 19.16 based on 2015 AFFO estimate of $1.98 and a stock price of $37.93. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 2% of the 5 year median value and this indicates that the current stock price is relatively reasonable.
You get the same sort of story using Price/Funds from Operations Ratio where the 5 year median P/FFO Ratio at16.73 and a current P/FFO Ratio at 16.78 are less than 1% different. The current P/FFO Ratio is based on 2015 FFO estimate of $2.26 and a stock price of $37.93.
However, for both of these tests you get a different story using 10 year P/FFO and P/AFFO Ratios. Here the difference is much higher. The 10 year P/AFFO Ratio is 16.68 a value some 15% lower than the current P/AFFO Ratio of 19.16. For P/FFO, the 10 year median P/FFO Ratio is 13.71 and is some 22% lower than the current P/FFO Ratio of 16.78. With this testing the stock price is beginning to look expensive.
I think that looking at historical low dividend yields is best to begin with when looking at yields. The historical low is 4.12% and the current dividend yield is lower by 6.6% at 3.85%. This would suggest that the stock price is expensive. Even looking at the 5 year median dividend yield, which is some 4.71%, the current dividend yield is some 18% lower.
Looking at P/S Ratios and P/CF Ratios really tell the same story. The 10 year P/S Ratio is 5.64 and the current one at 8.00 is some 42% higher. The 10 year P/CF Ratio is 16.66 and the current P/CF Ratio at 19.18 is some 15% higher. This testing suggests that the stock is looking expensive.
The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. Since most of the recommendations are a Buy, the consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $42.70. This implies a total return of 16.425 with 3.85% from distributions and 12.58% from capital gains.
This Market Wired article talks about a recent acquisition by Allied REIT. This is another Market Wired article about a 2014 acquisition by Allied REIT. This company reported on 2014 year end via Market Watch.
REITs did very well over the period of declining interest rates. At some point interest rate will go up. The problem is no one knows when this will happen.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, March 11, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Allied Properties REIT owns a portfolio of predominantly Class I office properties in Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Ottawa, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Kitchener-Waterloo. Its web site is here Allied REIT.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust
On my other blog I am today writing about REIT Payout Ratios continue...
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Young growing REIT. The REIT has grown quite rapidly since going public in 2003. They have raised their distributions 8 times in the past 11 years. See my spreadsheet at ap.htm.
I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed last year were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.
This is a REIT and what I would expect from dividends would be a good dividend rate and growth at or just above the inflation level. For this stock, the current dividend yield is 3.85% with a 5 year median of 4.71%. The 5 and 10 year distribution growth is 1.33% and 3.09% per year. The last dividend increase was for 3.5% and it occurred in 2015.
The 5 year growth may look low, but it is above the 5 year rate of inflation. According to the Bank of Canada, inflation in Canada is running at 1.45% over the past 10 years, 1.13% over the past 5 years and 0.85% over the past 3 years for total inflation. Also it is running at 1.56% over the past 10 years, 1.34% over the past 5 years and 1.24% over the past 3 years for core inflation.
The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS for 2014 was 66% and the 5 year median is 40%. The problem with looking at this is that the new accounting rules of IFRS saw a big improvement in this ratio. The DPR for CFPS for 2014 is 71% and the 5 year median is 85%.
Because this is a REIT, we need also to look at DPR under Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The DPR for FFO for 2014 is 67% and the 5 year median is 76%. The DPR for AFFO for 2014 is 77% and the 5 year median is 95%. These are acceptable DPRs.
Shareholders have done well recently. The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 17.21% and 14.10% per year. The portion of this return that is capital gains is 11.98% per year and the portion of this return that is dividends is 5.23% and 5.71% per year over these periods.
Outstanding shares have increased by 14% and 22% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options, DRIP and Share Issues. The company has grown by acquisition and they even have a Vice President of Acquisitions. This means that per share values will be what we will be looking at to see if the company has grown for the shareholders. Growth is low to good.
Revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years by 17% and 34% per year. The Revenue per Share growth is much lower at 2.8% and 9.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The EPS growth is good, but this is because of accounting rules changes in 2011. The growth in FFO and AFFO is moderate. FFO has grown at 4% and 4.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. AFFO has grown at 3.8% and 4.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Cash Flow growth is very good, but CFPS growth is only moderate. The growth is Cash Flow is at 21% and 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the CFPS growth is at 5.8% and 5.3% per year over these periods.
The Debt Ratios and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good. For 2014 the Debt Ratio is 2.43 and the 5 year median is 2.40. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2014 are 1.69 and 0.69 and the corresponding 5 year median ratios are 1.72 and 0.72.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, March 12, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Allied Properties REIT owns a portfolio of predominantly Class I office properties in Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Ottawa, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Kitchener-Waterloo. Its web site is here Allied REIT.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Young growing REIT. The REIT has grown quite rapidly since going public in 2003. They have raised their distributions 8 times in the past 11 years. See my spreadsheet at ap.htm.
I do not own this stock of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF). Since several stocks that I followed last year were deleted from the stock exchange, I was looking for other stocks to follow. I am sure that I got this from a Canadian Dividend site called Think Dividends, but I cannot find it at present.
This is a REIT and what I would expect from dividends would be a good dividend rate and growth at or just above the inflation level. For this stock, the current dividend yield is 3.85% with a 5 year median of 4.71%. The 5 and 10 year distribution growth is 1.33% and 3.09% per year. The last dividend increase was for 3.5% and it occurred in 2015.
The 5 year growth may look low, but it is above the 5 year rate of inflation. According to the Bank of Canada, inflation in Canada is running at 1.45% over the past 10 years, 1.13% over the past 5 years and 0.85% over the past 3 years for total inflation. Also it is running at 1.56% over the past 10 years, 1.34% over the past 5 years and 1.24% over the past 3 years for core inflation.
The Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS for 2014 was 66% and the 5 year median is 40%. The problem with looking at this is that the new accounting rules of IFRS saw a big improvement in this ratio. The DPR for CFPS for 2014 is 71% and the 5 year median is 85%.
Because this is a REIT, we need also to look at DPR under Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The DPR for FFO for 2014 is 67% and the 5 year median is 76%. The DPR for AFFO for 2014 is 77% and the 5 year median is 95%. These are acceptable DPRs.
Shareholders have done well recently. The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 17.21% and 14.10% per year. The portion of this return that is capital gains is 11.98% per year and the portion of this return that is dividends is 5.23% and 5.71% per year over these periods.
Outstanding shares have increased by 14% and 22% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Stock Options, DRIP and Share Issues. The company has grown by acquisition and they even have a Vice President of Acquisitions. This means that per share values will be what we will be looking at to see if the company has grown for the shareholders. Growth is low to good.
Revenue has grown over the past 5 and 10 years by 17% and 34% per year. The Revenue per Share growth is much lower at 2.8% and 9.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The EPS growth is good, but this is because of accounting rules changes in 2011. The growth in FFO and AFFO is moderate. FFO has grown at 4% and 4.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. AFFO has grown at 3.8% and 4.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Cash Flow growth is very good, but CFPS growth is only moderate. The growth is Cash Flow is at 21% and 28% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, the CFPS growth is at 5.8% and 5.3% per year over these periods.
The Debt Ratios and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good. For 2014 the Debt Ratio is 2.43 and the 5 year median is 2.40. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2014 are 1.69 and 0.69 and the corresponding 5 year median ratios are 1.72 and 0.72.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, March 12, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Allied Properties REIT owns a portfolio of predominantly Class I office properties in Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg, Quebec City, Ottawa, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Kitchener-Waterloo. Its web site is here Allied REIT.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust 2
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price maybe expensive. Stock price is reasonable using FFO and AFFO. However, the stock price based on measures like revenue and cash flow is currently expensive. The P/CF at 18.90 and P/S at 7.31 are a bit high. This dividend yield of 3.90% is not far off with other REITs, most of which have yields currently in the 4 to 5% range. However, the 3.90% is at historical low. See my spreadsheet at ref.htm.
I own this stock of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF). I started to follow some REITs because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. I was mainly interested in that have commercial properties. In September 2006, I wanted to buy another REIT after having to sell Summit. I already have lots of RioCan.
The company says that it buys shares on the open market for stock options. There are also seems to be few people with stock options. I looked at the CEO, CFO, an officer, a director and the chairman. Only the officer had any stock options and he did not have many.
When I look at insider trading, I found $2.3M of insider buying and a little insider selling. Net insider buying was at $2.3M. This report covers the past year. Most of the insider buying occurred one year ago, but there have been some 4 instances of insider buying since then. All buying was by directors of the company.
For REITs, it makes more sense to look at Price/Funds from Operations and Price/Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios. In both cases the current P/FFO and P/AFFO Ratios are lower than the corresponding 5 year median.
For P/FFO Ratio, the current one is 14.81 based on FFO 2015 estimate of $3.03 and a stock price of $44.86. It is 2.9% lower than the 5 year median of 15.25. For P/AFFO Ratio, the current one is 16.14 based on AFFO 2015 estimate of $2.78 and a stock price of $44.86. It is 0.2% lower than the 5 year median of 16.92. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
If you look at the Price/Cash Flow Ratio, the 10 year medina ratio is 15.25. The 5 year median is close at 15.54. The current P/CF Ratio using the last 12 months CFPS value is 18.90 a value some 24% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is high.
If you look at P/S Ratio, the 10 year median ratio is 6.22. The current one is 7.43 based on 2015 Revenue estimate of $438Mand a current stock price of $44.86. The current value is some 19% higher than the 10 year median. The P/S Ratio has been steadily rising and the 5 year median value is higher at 7.31 and this is close to the current P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable to expensive.
For this company, the dividend yield used to be a lot higher. This 10 year median before 2004 was 9.22%. Currently the 10 year median is 4.48%. The historical average and median are 7.41% and 6.76%. The current dividend yield at 3.90% is a lot lower. The 3.90% dividend yield is based on dividends of $1.75 and a stock price of $44.86. The current dividend is 3% higher than the 5 year median of 3.79% and only 13% off the 10 year median value of 4.48%. If you use just the 5 or 10 year median, the stock price comes in as reasonable.
However the historical dividend low for this company is 3.93%. At 3.90% the current dividend is around the historical low. This would imply that the stock price is expensive.
The analysts' recommendations are Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $51.10. This implies a total return of 17.81% with 3.90% from dividends and 13.91% from capital gains.
Through Market Wired this company announced their fourth quarter results for 2014. This company has been downgraded by Scotiabank to a sector preform (Hold) rating according to WKRB. The CIBC talks about why you should have REITs in your portfolio, including this company.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, March 09, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties. It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. Its web site is here CDN Real Estate.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF). I started to follow some REITs because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. I was mainly interested in that have commercial properties. In September 2006, I wanted to buy another REIT after having to sell Summit. I already have lots of RioCan.
The company says that it buys shares on the open market for stock options. There are also seems to be few people with stock options. I looked at the CEO, CFO, an officer, a director and the chairman. Only the officer had any stock options and he did not have many.
When I look at insider trading, I found $2.3M of insider buying and a little insider selling. Net insider buying was at $2.3M. This report covers the past year. Most of the insider buying occurred one year ago, but there have been some 4 instances of insider buying since then. All buying was by directors of the company.
For REITs, it makes more sense to look at Price/Funds from Operations and Price/Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios. In both cases the current P/FFO and P/AFFO Ratios are lower than the corresponding 5 year median.
For P/FFO Ratio, the current one is 14.81 based on FFO 2015 estimate of $3.03 and a stock price of $44.86. It is 2.9% lower than the 5 year median of 15.25. For P/AFFO Ratio, the current one is 16.14 based on AFFO 2015 estimate of $2.78 and a stock price of $44.86. It is 0.2% lower than the 5 year median of 16.92. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
If you look at the Price/Cash Flow Ratio, the 10 year medina ratio is 15.25. The 5 year median is close at 15.54. The current P/CF Ratio using the last 12 months CFPS value is 18.90 a value some 24% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is high.
If you look at P/S Ratio, the 10 year median ratio is 6.22. The current one is 7.43 based on 2015 Revenue estimate of $438Mand a current stock price of $44.86. The current value is some 19% higher than the 10 year median. The P/S Ratio has been steadily rising and the 5 year median value is higher at 7.31 and this is close to the current P/S Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable to expensive.
For this company, the dividend yield used to be a lot higher. This 10 year median before 2004 was 9.22%. Currently the 10 year median is 4.48%. The historical average and median are 7.41% and 6.76%. The current dividend yield at 3.90% is a lot lower. The 3.90% dividend yield is based on dividends of $1.75 and a stock price of $44.86. The current dividend is 3% higher than the 5 year median of 3.79% and only 13% off the 10 year median value of 4.48%. If you use just the 5 or 10 year median, the stock price comes in as reasonable.
However the historical dividend low for this company is 3.93%. At 3.90% the current dividend is around the historical low. This would imply that the stock price is expensive.
The analysts' recommendations are Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $51.10. This implies a total return of 17.81% with 3.90% from dividends and 13.91% from capital gains.
Through Market Wired this company announced their fourth quarter results for 2014. This company has been downgraded by Scotiabank to a sector preform (Hold) rating according to WKRB. The CIBC talks about why you should have REITs in your portfolio, including this company.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, March 09, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties. It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. Its web site is here CDN Real Estate.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, March 9, 2015
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust
On my other blog I am today writing about Canadian REITs continue...
I own this stock of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF). I started to follow some REITs because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. I was mainly interested in that have commercial properties. In September 2006, I wanted to buy another REIT after having to sell Summit. I already have lots of RioCan.
As with most REITs this one has a good dividend yield and moderate increases. The current Dividend Yield is 3.86% and the 5 year Dividend yield is at 3.79%. The distributions have increased by 4.9% and 3.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The most recent increase was 6% in 2014.
This REIT has better distribution increases than I expect from a REIT. Because the dividend yields are good, I would expect increases at the rate of inflation or slightly better. According to the Bank of Canada, inflation in Canada is running at 1.45% over the past 10 years, 1.13% over the past 5 years and 0.85% over the past 3 years for total inflation. Also it is running at 1.56% over the past 10 years, 1.34% over the past 5 years and 1.24% over the past 3 years for core inflation.
I bought this stock 2006, almost 9 years ago and I have done well. I have made a total return of 11.60% per year with 7.04% from capital gains and 4.56% from dividends. If you look at 5 and 10 year total return on this stock they are at 12.06% and 11.97% per year. The dividend portion of this return is at 4.42% and 4.84% per year and the capital gain portion is 7.64% and 7.13% per year over these periods.
If you look at dividends I have received, they equal $19.57 per share. I paid $26.38 per share for this stock in 2006. So the dividends I have received so far are 74% of my purchase price. Another way at looking how well I am doing is that I am making a dividend yield of 6.63% on my original purchase. These are reasons to buy dividend growth stocks.
One thing to look at for dividend paying stock is the Dividend Payout Ratio. For most stocks I check the DPR for ESP and CFPS. For this stock these ratios were 87.5% and 73% for 2014. The 5 year median of these ratios is 124.5% and 65.9% for EPS and CFPS.
For REITs it is not that simple. You need also to check the DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). For this stock the applicable DPR for 2014 for FFO is 58.5% and for AFFO is 69.3%. The corresponding 5 year median ratios are 58.6% for FFO and 68.3% for FFO.
Of course none of this is an exact science. This is because EPS does not always give you a good handle on the REITs ability to pay distributions. Also, for REITs the EPS was affected by the 2011 change to the IFRS accounting rules. The FFO used to be called Distributable Income (or some variation) and the rules for calculating it have changed over time. The AFFO is the latest version of FFO.
The outstanding shares have increased by 1.8% and 2.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This makes per share values a better indicator of this company’s growth. Growth over the past 5 years is less than the growth over the past 10 years. Growth over the past 5 years has been low, but EPS and CFPS values are volatile so the 5 year running growth rates might be better indicators of growth for these measures.
Revenue per Share has grown at 1.5% and 3.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue is better with growth at 3.3% and 5.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
If you look at EPS the growth is 1.8% and 8.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has been volatile, especially over the past 5 years. Using the 5 year running averages, growth is at 6.3% and 3.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Growth in FFO and AFFO is moderate. The FFO growth is at 5.1% and 7.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. AFFO growth is at 4.7% and 6.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.'
Growth in Cash flow is 1.65 and 4.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, it is better using the 5 year running averages which has growth at 4.8% and 6.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Cash Flows have been volatile.
For this company, the Debt Ratio and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are currently good. Debt Ratio for 2014 is 2.58 and the 5 year median is 1.87. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low for 2014 at 1.63 and 0.63. The corresponding 5 year median ratios are higher and a bit high at 2.59 and 1.59. However, the median values are not unusual for REITs.
The total distribution increases in 2013 and 2014 were at 7.9% and 9.3% respectively. These are quite high, but there is no indication that this is causing any problems. Analysts expect, using the current $1.75 yearly distribution for the DPR for EPS to be around 55%, for FFO to be around 57.7% and for AFFO to be around 62.9% this year.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Core REIT holding. This REIT has done well in the past and there is no reason to expect anything less than a solid performance in the future. However, it does have exposure to the Canadian west and there are current problems with oil prices. See my spreadsheet at ref.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, March 10, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties. It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. Its web site is here CDN Real Estate.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-REF.UN, OTC-CRXIF). I started to follow some REITs because I wanted to diversify my portfolio into REITs. I was mainly interested in that have commercial properties. In September 2006, I wanted to buy another REIT after having to sell Summit. I already have lots of RioCan.
As with most REITs this one has a good dividend yield and moderate increases. The current Dividend Yield is 3.86% and the 5 year Dividend yield is at 3.79%. The distributions have increased by 4.9% and 3.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The most recent increase was 6% in 2014.
This REIT has better distribution increases than I expect from a REIT. Because the dividend yields are good, I would expect increases at the rate of inflation or slightly better. According to the Bank of Canada, inflation in Canada is running at 1.45% over the past 10 years, 1.13% over the past 5 years and 0.85% over the past 3 years for total inflation. Also it is running at 1.56% over the past 10 years, 1.34% over the past 5 years and 1.24% over the past 3 years for core inflation.
I bought this stock 2006, almost 9 years ago and I have done well. I have made a total return of 11.60% per year with 7.04% from capital gains and 4.56% from dividends. If you look at 5 and 10 year total return on this stock they are at 12.06% and 11.97% per year. The dividend portion of this return is at 4.42% and 4.84% per year and the capital gain portion is 7.64% and 7.13% per year over these periods.
If you look at dividends I have received, they equal $19.57 per share. I paid $26.38 per share for this stock in 2006. So the dividends I have received so far are 74% of my purchase price. Another way at looking how well I am doing is that I am making a dividend yield of 6.63% on my original purchase. These are reasons to buy dividend growth stocks.
One thing to look at for dividend paying stock is the Dividend Payout Ratio. For most stocks I check the DPR for ESP and CFPS. For this stock these ratios were 87.5% and 73% for 2014. The 5 year median of these ratios is 124.5% and 65.9% for EPS and CFPS.
For REITs it is not that simple. You need also to check the DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). For this stock the applicable DPR for 2014 for FFO is 58.5% and for AFFO is 69.3%. The corresponding 5 year median ratios are 58.6% for FFO and 68.3% for FFO.
Of course none of this is an exact science. This is because EPS does not always give you a good handle on the REITs ability to pay distributions. Also, for REITs the EPS was affected by the 2011 change to the IFRS accounting rules. The FFO used to be called Distributable Income (or some variation) and the rules for calculating it have changed over time. The AFFO is the latest version of FFO.
The outstanding shares have increased by 1.8% and 2.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This makes per share values a better indicator of this company’s growth. Growth over the past 5 years is less than the growth over the past 10 years. Growth over the past 5 years has been low, but EPS and CFPS values are volatile so the 5 year running growth rates might be better indicators of growth for these measures.
Revenue per Share has grown at 1.5% and 3.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue is better with growth at 3.3% and 5.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
If you look at EPS the growth is 1.8% and 8.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS has been volatile, especially over the past 5 years. Using the 5 year running averages, growth is at 6.3% and 3.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Growth in FFO and AFFO is moderate. The FFO growth is at 5.1% and 7.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. AFFO growth is at 4.7% and 6.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.'
Growth in Cash flow is 1.65 and 4.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, it is better using the 5 year running averages which has growth at 4.8% and 6.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Cash Flows have been volatile.
For this company, the Debt Ratio and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are currently good. Debt Ratio for 2014 is 2.58 and the 5 year median is 1.87. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low for 2014 at 1.63 and 0.63. The corresponding 5 year median ratios are higher and a bit high at 2.59 and 1.59. However, the median values are not unusual for REITs.
The total distribution increases in 2013 and 2014 were at 7.9% and 9.3% respectively. These are quite high, but there is no indication that this is causing any problems. Analysts expect, using the current $1.75 yearly distribution for the DPR for EPS to be around 55%, for FFO to be around 57.7% and for AFFO to be around 62.9% this year.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Core REIT holding. This REIT has done well in the past and there is no reason to expect anything less than a solid performance in the future. However, it does have exposure to the Canadian west and there are current problems with oil prices. See my spreadsheet at ref.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, March 10, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate trust, which acquires and owns a portfolio of income-producing properties. It specializes in the acquisition and ownership of community shopping centers, industrial and office properties across Canada. This company owns office, industrial, retail properties and some miscellaneous items such as apartment buildings. Its web site is here CDN Real Estate.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, March 6, 2015
Home Capital Group 2
I do not own this stock of Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC- HMCBF). I started reviewing this company in September 2009. It is a dividend growth company and was coming up on lists of good dividend paying stocks. It is on some dividend paying companies lists that I look at.
When I look at insider trading, I find $23.7M of insider selling and $23.6M of net insider selling. There is a minimal amount of insider buying. Outstanding shares were increased by 636,000 shares for Stock options and this is 0.91% of the outstanding shares. This is rather a lot as most banks' outstanding shares are increased by less than 0.50% for stock options.
There is some insider ownership with CEO having shares worth around $171.3M and a director having shares worth around $100.2M. However, these holdings just amount to around 6% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.50, 9.19 and 10.88. These are generally lower than the corresponding 10 years ratios 7.50, 9.22 and 12.12. The current P/E Ratio is 10.25 based on a stock price of $45.40 and 2015 EPS estimate of $4.33. This stock price test suggests that the stock price could still be relatively reasonable although at the top end of the reasonableness range.
I get a Graham Price of $45.58. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.95 and 1.19. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.00 based on a stock price of $45.40. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.24. The current P/B Ratio is 2.18 based pm a stock price of $45.40 and BVPS of $20.85. There is only 2.9% diffidence between the 10 year P/B Ratio and the current ratio. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 5 year median, historical average and historical median dividend yields are 1.51%, 1.42% and 1.36%. The current dividend yield at 1.94% is some 28%, 37% and 43% higher than these dividend yields. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. The historical high dividend yield is 2.32% a value just 16% higher than the current dividend yield.
Analysts' recommendations are Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $52.10. This implies total return of 16.70% with 1.94% from dividends and 14.76% from capital gains.
Ian Tam of Number Cruncher names this company as one of 10 with sustainable growing dividends. Nelson Smith at Motley Fool thinks that this company is too risky to buy. However, Joseph Solitro at Motley Fool thinks that this stock would be a great long-term investment opportunity.
Jim Bates on TSI Network thought this was a good stock to buy in August of 2014. This company is also discussed on Dividend Growth Investing and Retirement blog in February of this year.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Risky but price is reasonable. There is some concern about the riskiness of this stock and what might happen if the Real Estate Market fell in Ontario. It is riskier than our banks, but the P/E is much lower. See my spreadsheet at hcg.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, March 05, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Home Capital Group Inc. operates through one subsidiary, Home Trust Company, to provide mortgage lending, deposit, retail credit and credit card issuing services. They have subprime mortgages. Its stock is widely held. Its web site is here Home Capital.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find $23.7M of insider selling and $23.6M of net insider selling. There is a minimal amount of insider buying. Outstanding shares were increased by 636,000 shares for Stock options and this is 0.91% of the outstanding shares. This is rather a lot as most banks' outstanding shares are increased by less than 0.50% for stock options.
There is some insider ownership with CEO having shares worth around $171.3M and a director having shares worth around $100.2M. However, these holdings just amount to around 6% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.50, 9.19 and 10.88. These are generally lower than the corresponding 10 years ratios 7.50, 9.22 and 12.12. The current P/E Ratio is 10.25 based on a stock price of $45.40 and 2015 EPS estimate of $4.33. This stock price test suggests that the stock price could still be relatively reasonable although at the top end of the reasonableness range.
I get a Graham Price of $45.58. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.95 and 1.19. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.00 based on a stock price of $45.40. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.24. The current P/B Ratio is 2.18 based pm a stock price of $45.40 and BVPS of $20.85. There is only 2.9% diffidence between the 10 year P/B Ratio and the current ratio. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.
The 5 year median, historical average and historical median dividend yields are 1.51%, 1.42% and 1.36%. The current dividend yield at 1.94% is some 28%, 37% and 43% higher than these dividend yields. This stock price tests suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable. The historical high dividend yield is 2.32% a value just 16% higher than the current dividend yield.
Analysts' recommendations are Strong Buy, Buy and Hold. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $52.10. This implies total return of 16.70% with 1.94% from dividends and 14.76% from capital gains.
Ian Tam of Number Cruncher names this company as one of 10 with sustainable growing dividends. Nelson Smith at Motley Fool thinks that this company is too risky to buy. However, Joseph Solitro at Motley Fool thinks that this stock would be a great long-term investment opportunity.
Jim Bates on TSI Network thought this was a good stock to buy in August of 2014. This company is also discussed on Dividend Growth Investing and Retirement blog in February of this year.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Risky but price is reasonable. There is some concern about the riskiness of this stock and what might happen if the Real Estate Market fell in Ontario. It is riskier than our banks, but the P/E is much lower. See my spreadsheet at hcg.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Thursday, March 05, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Home Capital Group Inc. operates through one subsidiary, Home Trust Company, to provide mortgage lending, deposit, retail credit and credit card issuing services. They have subprime mortgages. Its stock is widely held. Its web site is here Home Capital.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, March 5, 2015
Home Capital Group
I do not own this stock of Home Capital Group (TSX-HCG, OTC- HMCBF). I started reviewing this company in September 2009. It is a dividend growth company and was coming up on lists of good dividend paying stocks. It is on some dividend paying companies lists that I look at.
This company has been paying dividends since 1999. Dividends are moderate with good growth. The current dividend yield is 1.94% and it has a 5 year median dividend yield of 1.51%. The dividends have grown at 19.3% and 27.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The most recent increase was in 2015 for 10%. However, note that the company has often raised dividends twice in each year.
I get Dividend Payout Ratios in 2014 of 15.7% for EPS and negative 51.3% for CFPS. Cash Flow is negative in 2014. The 5 year median DPRs for EPS is at 14.11% and for CFPS is 9.2%. This is the first year of negative cash flows since dividends started in 1999. It is not an uncommon occurrence for banks to have negative cash flows. Analysts do expect cash flow to turn positive in 2015.
If dividends continue to grow at 19% per year, that means using current stock price and dividend yield of 1.94%, an investor could hope to have a yield on original cost at 11% in 10 years' time and 26% in 15 years' time.
Shareholders have done well with 5 and 10 year total return at 13.64% and 11.84% per year. The portion of this attributable to dividends is 1.75% and 1.41% per year. The portion of this growth attributable to capital gains is at 11.88% and 10.43% per year.
Except for cash flow, I see good growth in Revenues, Earnings and Book Value. Even for cash flow, if you look at the 5 year running average, this is also quite good.
For Revenue, analysts are only looking at Total Net Interest Income. This has growth at 22.5% and 17.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the above plus other income, revenue has grown at 12.2% and 16.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
EPS has good growth also with growth at 16.5% and 21.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at CFPS growth using 5 year running average, growth is at 17.2% and 20.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been above 10% every year for the past 5 and 10 years. To find this ratio below 10% you have to go back almost 20 years. The ROE for 2014 was 21.6% and 5 year median was at 22.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income is close with this ROE at 21.6% in 2014 and with a 5 year median of 22.6%. This suggests that the earnings are of good quality.
The current Debt Ratio is 1.08 which is where most banks are at, at the present time. The Leverage (A/BK) and Debt/Equity Ratios are 13.86 and 12.86 which are a bit lower than the banks currently, so this is good.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Div. growth small financial institution. Since this financial institution is on the small side, it means that it has good room to grow. Shareholders have done well. See my spreadsheet at hcg.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, March 6, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on xxx and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Home Capital Group Inc. operates through one subsidiary, Home Trust Company, to provide mortgage lending, deposit, retail credit and credit card issuing services. They have subprime mortgages. Its stock is widely held. Its web site is here Home Capital.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This company has been paying dividends since 1999. Dividends are moderate with good growth. The current dividend yield is 1.94% and it has a 5 year median dividend yield of 1.51%. The dividends have grown at 19.3% and 27.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The most recent increase was in 2015 for 10%. However, note that the company has often raised dividends twice in each year.
I get Dividend Payout Ratios in 2014 of 15.7% for EPS and negative 51.3% for CFPS. Cash Flow is negative in 2014. The 5 year median DPRs for EPS is at 14.11% and for CFPS is 9.2%. This is the first year of negative cash flows since dividends started in 1999. It is not an uncommon occurrence for banks to have negative cash flows. Analysts do expect cash flow to turn positive in 2015.
If dividends continue to grow at 19% per year, that means using current stock price and dividend yield of 1.94%, an investor could hope to have a yield on original cost at 11% in 10 years' time and 26% in 15 years' time.
Shareholders have done well with 5 and 10 year total return at 13.64% and 11.84% per year. The portion of this attributable to dividends is 1.75% and 1.41% per year. The portion of this growth attributable to capital gains is at 11.88% and 10.43% per year.
Except for cash flow, I see good growth in Revenues, Earnings and Book Value. Even for cash flow, if you look at the 5 year running average, this is also quite good.
For Revenue, analysts are only looking at Total Net Interest Income. This has growth at 22.5% and 17.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at the above plus other income, revenue has grown at 12.2% and 16.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
EPS has good growth also with growth at 16.5% and 21.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at CFPS growth using 5 year running average, growth is at 17.2% and 20.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The Return on Equity has been above 10% every year for the past 5 and 10 years. To find this ratio below 10% you have to go back almost 20 years. The ROE for 2014 was 21.6% and 5 year median was at 22.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income is close with this ROE at 21.6% in 2014 and with a 5 year median of 22.6%. This suggests that the earnings are of good quality.
The current Debt Ratio is 1.08 which is where most banks are at, at the present time. The Leverage (A/BK) and Debt/Equity Ratios are 13.86 and 12.86 which are a bit lower than the banks currently, so this is good.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Div. growth small financial institution. Since this financial institution is on the small side, it means that it has good room to grow. Shareholders have done well. See my spreadsheet at hcg.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Friday, March 6, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on xxx and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.
Home Capital Group Inc. operates through one subsidiary, Home Trust Company, to provide mortgage lending, deposit, retail credit and credit card issuing services. They have subprime mortgages. Its stock is widely held. Its web site is here Home Capital.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Mullen Group Ltd. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for March 2015 continue...
I own this stock of Mullen Group Ltd. (TSX-MTL, OTC- MLLGF). I like to look at recommended small cap dividend paying stock to see if they would be a possible good investment now or in the future. The other thing to mention about this stock is that it recently converted from an income trust and has decreased it dividends. The reduction in dividend brought the Dividend Payout Ratios down to a place that would allow for the company to begin growing again.
The insider trading report says there are some $0.3M of insider buying and no insider selling. This is a relatively small amount of insider buying as it is only 0.02% of the market value. Last year the outstanding shares were increased by some 547,000 shares for stock options. These shares have a book value of $12.6M and were worth $11.6M at end of 2014. This is a relatively reasonable about as it is some 0.6% of the outstanding shares.
The CEO has shares worth around $10.2M and the Chairman has shares worth around $62M. Taken together this amounts to just over 3% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.75, 15.77 and 17.35. The 10 year corresponding ratios are a bit lower at 11.38, 14.18 and 17.11. The current P/E Ratio is 21.74 based on 2015 EPS estimate of $0.95 and a stock price of $20.65. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is expensive.
I get at Graham price of $14.49. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.09 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $20.65. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.89. The current P/B Ratio is 2.10 a value some 11% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on a BVPS value $9.83 and a stock price of $20.65. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get 5 year median, historical average and historical median dividend yields of 5.30%, 4.75% and 3.99%. These yields are 22%, 9.75 and 45.6% lower than the current dividend yield of 5.81%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The vast majority of the recommendations are a Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $21.20. This implies a total return of 8.47% with 2.66% from capital gains and 5.81% from dividends.
A number of analysts have lowered the stock target price on this stock according to WKRB. Stockhouse talks about the 2014 financial report for the Mullen Group. According to Forbes, Mullen Group is now Over Sold.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is good. How you get good companies cheap is to buy them when others are afraid and are selling. The price could be lower, but using the dividend yield, the price is relatively better than the average or the median and this is generally consider to be a good price. See my spreadsheet at mtl.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, March 03, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Mullen Group Ltd. is a corporation that owns a network of independently operated businesses. Mullen is recognized as the largest provider of specialized transportation and related services to the oil and natural gas industry in Western Canada and is one of the leading suppliers of trucking and logistics services in Canada - two sectors of the economy in which Mullen has strong business relationships and industry leadership. Its web site is here Mullen.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Mullen Group Ltd. (TSX-MTL, OTC- MLLGF). I like to look at recommended small cap dividend paying stock to see if they would be a possible good investment now or in the future. The other thing to mention about this stock is that it recently converted from an income trust and has decreased it dividends. The reduction in dividend brought the Dividend Payout Ratios down to a place that would allow for the company to begin growing again.
The insider trading report says there are some $0.3M of insider buying and no insider selling. This is a relatively small amount of insider buying as it is only 0.02% of the market value. Last year the outstanding shares were increased by some 547,000 shares for stock options. These shares have a book value of $12.6M and were worth $11.6M at end of 2014. This is a relatively reasonable about as it is some 0.6% of the outstanding shares.
The CEO has shares worth around $10.2M and the Chairman has shares worth around $62M. Taken together this amounts to just over 3% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.75, 15.77 and 17.35. The 10 year corresponding ratios are a bit lower at 11.38, 14.18 and 17.11. The current P/E Ratio is 21.74 based on 2015 EPS estimate of $0.95 and a stock price of $20.65. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is expensive.
I get at Graham price of $14.49. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.09 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.42 based on a stock price of $20.65. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is expensive.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.89. The current P/B Ratio is 2.10 a value some 11% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on a BVPS value $9.83 and a stock price of $20.65. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
I get 5 year median, historical average and historical median dividend yields of 5.30%, 4.75% and 3.99%. These yields are 22%, 9.75 and 45.6% lower than the current dividend yield of 5.81%. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Buy, Hold, Underperform and Sell recommendations. The vast majority of the recommendations are a Hold. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $21.20. This implies a total return of 8.47% with 2.66% from capital gains and 5.81% from dividends.
A number of analysts have lowered the stock target price on this stock according to WKRB. Stockhouse talks about the 2014 financial report for the Mullen Group. According to Forbes, Mullen Group is now Over Sold.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is good. How you get good companies cheap is to buy them when others are afraid and are selling. The price could be lower, but using the dividend yield, the price is relatively better than the average or the median and this is generally consider to be a good price. See my spreadsheet at mtl.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, March 03, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Mullen Group Ltd. is a corporation that owns a network of independently operated businesses. Mullen is recognized as the largest provider of specialized transportation and related services to the oil and natural gas industry in Western Canada and is one of the leading suppliers of trucking and logistics services in Canada - two sectors of the economy in which Mullen has strong business relationships and industry leadership. Its web site is here Mullen.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Mullen Group Ltd.
I own this stock of Mullen Group Ltd. (TSX-MTL, OTC- MLLGF). I like to look at recommended small cap dividend paying stock to see if they would be a possible good investment now or in the future. The other thing to mention about this stock is that it recently converted from an income trust and has decreased it dividends. The reduction in dividend brought the Dividend Payout Ratios down to a place that would allow for the company to begin growing again.
I know that I just reviewed this stock in December last year. However, the 2014 Annual Report is in and I wanted to check up on this stock as I recently purchase it.
Although this company has a good record of increasing dividends in the past, the current dividend was set in early 2013 and has not changed since. The problem is that this company services the oil and gas industry. The company did not do that well in 2014 and 2015 is not expected to be much better. Analysts seem to think things will pick up in 2016.
Currently this company pays a good dividend which is paid monthly. The current yield is 5.81% and it has a 5 year median dividend yield of 4.75%. I would expect no dividend increases until the price of oil starts to recover. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS also needs to go lower.
The last dividend increase was in 2013 and it was for 20%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 19% and 21.8% per year.
When this company reduced its dividends in 2009 with the change from an income trust to a corporation, it got the Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings under control. However, the DPR for EPS for 2014 was 117% and it is expected to be 126% this year and reducing to 101% in 2016. The DPR for CFPS is better with the one for 2014 at 39%. However this is expected to increase to 56% this year and then drop to 44% in 2016.
The growth in outstanding shares stands at 2.6% and 7.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have been increased for Stock Issues and Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. This means that you should be paying attention to the per share values.
Revenue growth is moderate to good. The Revenue growth is at 7.9% and 11.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share is, of course, lower. It is at 5.1% and 4.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The EPS has been rather volatile and so it is a good idea to look at not only growth but the growth in the 5 year average EPS. EPS has decreased by 1.5% and 0% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, when you look at the 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years growth is at 8.1% and 6.1% per year.
The CFPS has also been a bit volatile. The growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 15.7% and 7.2% per year. If you look at the growth using 5 year running averages, it is at 2.9% and 9.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. To get CFPS, I used average weighted number of shares.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% only once in the past 5 years and that was 5 years ago. The ROE for 2014 was 10.5% and the 5 year median is 15.8%. The ROE on comprehensive income is the same and so this is good.
The Liquidity Ratio has varied but is has always been good. The one for 2014 was at 4.58 and the 5 year median is 2.65. The Debt Ratio has is also good at 1.94 for 2014 and has a 5 year median value of 2.13. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios ratio are a little high at 2.07 and 1.07, but these are generally fine and the 5 year median values are good at 1.68 and 0.68.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Oil, gas services, holding its own. This company did not meet any of the estimates for 2014, but it has only fall 3% so far this year. Considering the industry it is in, it is holding up quite well. I am currently happy about my investment in this company. See my spreadsheet at mtl.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, March 4, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Mullen Group Ltd. is a corporation that owns a network of independently operated businesses. Mullen is recognized as the largest provider of specialized transportation and related services to the oil and natural gas industry in Western Canada and is one of the leading suppliers of trucking and logistics services in Canada - two sectors of the economy in which Mullen has strong business relationships and industry leadership. Its web site is here Mullen.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I know that I just reviewed this stock in December last year. However, the 2014 Annual Report is in and I wanted to check up on this stock as I recently purchase it.
Although this company has a good record of increasing dividends in the past, the current dividend was set in early 2013 and has not changed since. The problem is that this company services the oil and gas industry. The company did not do that well in 2014 and 2015 is not expected to be much better. Analysts seem to think things will pick up in 2016.
Currently this company pays a good dividend which is paid monthly. The current yield is 5.81% and it has a 5 year median dividend yield of 4.75%. I would expect no dividend increases until the price of oil starts to recover. The Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS also needs to go lower.
The last dividend increase was in 2013 and it was for 20%. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 19% and 21.8% per year.
When this company reduced its dividends in 2009 with the change from an income trust to a corporation, it got the Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings under control. However, the DPR for EPS for 2014 was 117% and it is expected to be 126% this year and reducing to 101% in 2016. The DPR for CFPS is better with the one for 2014 at 39%. However this is expected to increase to 56% this year and then drop to 44% in 2016.
The growth in outstanding shares stands at 2.6% and 7.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have been increased for Stock Issues and Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. This means that you should be paying attention to the per share values.
Revenue growth is moderate to good. The Revenue growth is at 7.9% and 11.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share is, of course, lower. It is at 5.1% and 4.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
The EPS has been rather volatile and so it is a good idea to look at not only growth but the growth in the 5 year average EPS. EPS has decreased by 1.5% and 0% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, when you look at the 5 year running averages over the past 5 and 10 years growth is at 8.1% and 6.1% per year.
The CFPS has also been a bit volatile. The growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 15.7% and 7.2% per year. If you look at the growth using 5 year running averages, it is at 2.9% and 9.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. To get CFPS, I used average weighted number of shares.
The Return on Equity has been below 10% only once in the past 5 years and that was 5 years ago. The ROE for 2014 was 10.5% and the 5 year median is 15.8%. The ROE on comprehensive income is the same and so this is good.
The Liquidity Ratio has varied but is has always been good. The one for 2014 was at 4.58 and the 5 year median is 2.65. The Debt Ratio has is also good at 1.94 for 2014 and has a 5 year median value of 2.13. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios ratio are a little high at 2.07 and 1.07, but these are generally fine and the 5 year median values are good at 1.68 and 0.68.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Oil, gas services, holding its own. This company did not meet any of the estimates for 2014, but it has only fall 3% so far this year. Considering the industry it is in, it is holding up quite well. I am currently happy about my investment in this company. See my spreadsheet at mtl.htm.
This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, March 4, 2015 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
Mullen Group Ltd. is a corporation that owns a network of independently operated businesses. Mullen is recognized as the largest provider of specialized transportation and related services to the oil and natural gas industry in Western Canada and is one of the leading suppliers of trucking and logistics services in Canada - two sectors of the economy in which Mullen has strong business relationships and industry leadership. Its web site is here Mullen.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, March 2, 2015
ARC Resources Ltd. 2
On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for March 2015 continue...
I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.
In 2014 outstanding share were increased by around 1.26M shares for stock options. The book value of these shares was $35.1m. This number of shares was worth $31.7M by the end of 2014. Since this this is 0.39% of the shares outstanding it is relatively a small amount.
When I look at insider trading I find $4M of insider buying and a minimal amount of insider selling. Net insider buying is $3.8M. Net Buying is around 0.05% of the market cap so is a relatively small amount. There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $7.7M, a director owning shares worth $10.1M and the chairman owning shares worth around $18.1M. This is a relatively small amount and is way less than 1% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.48, 24.58 and 28.67. These are higher than the corresponding 10 year Ratios of 15.73, 20.12 and 24.52. The current P/E Ratio is 302.13 based on a stock price of $24.17 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.08. This company is not expected to earn much over the next few years. You really cannot do stock price testing using EPS.
I get a current Graham Price of $4.47 (down from $17.33 of 2014). The 10 years Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.06, 1.29 and 1.57. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.40. This is very high as is the current EPS.
When you look at Price/Book Value per Share Ratio for the 10 years median ratio the value is 2.35. The current P/B Ratio is 2.17 a value some 7.5% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The problems with using the dividend yield for stock price testing is that this company used to be an income trust company that has converted to a corporation. Income trust companies had quite high dividend yields which will not be repeated for corporations. However if you look at dividend yields for just the last 5 years, the 5 year median dividend yield is 4.88%. The current dividend yield is higher by 1.7% at 4.96% and suggests the stock price is reasonable.
It does not really help to do stock price testing using the P/CF Ratios or the P/S Ratios as both show that by these standards the stock price is relatively expensive. The only real check is with the Dividend yield and it just shows the price as reasonable.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $28.10. This implies a total return of 21.22% with 4.96% from dividends and 16.26% from capital gains.
Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool thinks that ARC is a good long term investment. Arc Resources announced via newswire the closing of over-allotment option on bought deal financing. Dakota Financial News says that ARC Resources has been given a buy rating by eleven brokerages.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: For oil and gas stock, price is just reasonable. The price on this stock has not really fallen much because of low oil prices. It is down just 4% in 2015 so far and down by just 14.9% in 2014. From this I would think that the stock price is reasonable. It is not cheap. Personally, I would be only interested in Oil and Gas stocks that are currently cheap. See my spreadsheet at arx.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, February 27, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
ARC Resources Ltd. is one of Canada's leading conventional oil and gas companies. Its focus is on acquiring and developing long-life oil and gas properties across western Canada. Industry: Oil and Gas (Oil and Gas Producers) Its web site is here ARC Resources.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.
In 2014 outstanding share were increased by around 1.26M shares for stock options. The book value of these shares was $35.1m. This number of shares was worth $31.7M by the end of 2014. Since this this is 0.39% of the shares outstanding it is relatively a small amount.
When I look at insider trading I find $4M of insider buying and a minimal amount of insider selling. Net insider buying is $3.8M. Net Buying is around 0.05% of the market cap so is a relatively small amount. There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $7.7M, a director owning shares worth $10.1M and the chairman owning shares worth around $18.1M. This is a relatively small amount and is way less than 1% of the outstanding shares.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 20.48, 24.58 and 28.67. These are higher than the corresponding 10 year Ratios of 15.73, 20.12 and 24.52. The current P/E Ratio is 302.13 based on a stock price of $24.17 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.08. This company is not expected to earn much over the next few years. You really cannot do stock price testing using EPS.
I get a current Graham Price of $4.47 (down from $17.33 of 2014). The 10 years Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.06, 1.29 and 1.57. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.40. This is very high as is the current EPS.
When you look at Price/Book Value per Share Ratio for the 10 years median ratio the value is 2.35. The current P/B Ratio is 2.17 a value some 7.5% lower than the 10 year ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.
The problems with using the dividend yield for stock price testing is that this company used to be an income trust company that has converted to a corporation. Income trust companies had quite high dividend yields which will not be repeated for corporations. However if you look at dividend yields for just the last 5 years, the 5 year median dividend yield is 4.88%. The current dividend yield is higher by 1.7% at 4.96% and suggests the stock price is reasonable.
It does not really help to do stock price testing using the P/CF Ratios or the P/S Ratios as both show that by these standards the stock price is relatively expensive. The only real check is with the Dividend yield and it just shows the price as reasonable.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Underperform recommendations. Most of the recommendations are a Buy and the consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $28.10. This implies a total return of 21.22% with 4.96% from dividends and 16.26% from capital gains.
Joseph Solitro of Motley Fool thinks that ARC is a good long term investment. Arc Resources announced via newswire the closing of over-allotment option on bought deal financing. Dakota Financial News says that ARC Resources has been given a buy rating by eleven brokerages.
Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: For oil and gas stock, price is just reasonable. The price on this stock has not really fallen much because of low oil prices. It is down just 4% in 2015 so far and down by just 14.9% in 2014. From this I would think that the stock price is reasonable. It is not cheap. Personally, I would be only interested in Oil and Gas stocks that are currently cheap. See my spreadsheet at arx.htm.
This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, February 27, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.
ARC Resources Ltd. is one of Canada's leading conventional oil and gas companies. Its focus is on acquiring and developing long-life oil and gas properties across western Canada. Industry: Oil and Gas (Oil and Gas Producers) Its web site is here ARC Resources.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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