Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock seems to be quite cyclical in nature and therefore of a higher risk that other dividend stocks. This stock is off its latest high, so I can see why it is considered reasonable. If you have this stock you would have to be able tolerate its cyclical nature, but their product is used as feedstock to a number of end-products. My current stock price testing says the stock price is reasonable.
I do not own this stock of Methanex Corp (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH). I started a spreadsheet in November 2010 as I had read some good reports on the stock at that time. It is also got a solid “C” grade in a 2009 Money Sense review of stocks. Money Sense rated the top 100 Canadian Dividend Paying stocks. Money Sense was looking for stocks that provided generous income at reasonable prices. However, this stock has not been on the Money Sense list for the past few years.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock is quite cyclical. It is down some 31% so far this year. In September 2018 it was $104.63, then in by March 2020 is was just $14.57 an 86% drop. In February of 2024, the stock price was $77.76, so the price has fallen 36% from that high. I notice some insiders were buying at $50.65 CDN$ and $38.54 US$ (54.34 CN$). Note that the financial statements, dividends and estimates are all in US$.
If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,014.03 you would have bought 19 shares at $53.37 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $227.15 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,364.77. Your total return would have been $1,591.92. This would be a total return of 5.06% per year with 3.02% from capital gain and 2.04% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $53.37 | $1,014.03 | 19 | 10 | $227.15 | $1,364.77 | $1,591.92 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth restarting. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.11%. The 5, and 10 median dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.54%, and 1.93%. The historical median dividend yield is moderate at 2.13%. The dividends were cut 90% in 2020. They started to increase the dividends again in 2021. However, the dividends are still 49% below what they were in 2020. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 5.7%. There has been no increase in 2025.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 22% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 8%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 6% with 5 year coverage at 5%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 39%. FCF varies in 2024 from $520M to $640M. I am using the $520M FCF for testing.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 21.52% | 20.83% |
| AEPS | 19.89% | 8.30% |
| CFPS | 5.54% | 5.01% |
| FCF | 9.59% | 39.41% |
Debt Ratios are generally fine, but the company has debt that is too high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is high at 0.71 and currently too high at 1.03. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 2.62 and 2.09 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.56 and 1.62 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are too high at 3.08 and 1.97 and currently fine at 2.93 and 1.81.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.71 | 1.03 |
| Intang/GW | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liquidity | 2.62 | 2.09 |
| Liq. + CF | 3.56 | 3.63 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.56 | 1.62 |
| Leverage | 3.08 | 2.93 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.97 | 1.81 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2024 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | -10.28% | 8.76% | 7.45% | 1.31% |
| 2014 | 10 | -0.34% | 5.06% | 3.02% | 2.04% |
| 2009 | 15 | 3.36% | 11.76% | 8.71% | 3.05% |
| 2004 | 20 | 5.92% | 8.54% | 6.12% | 2.42% |
| 1999 | 25 | 9.06% | 16.95% | 12.30% | 4.65% |
| 1995 | 29 | 8.99% | 7.04% | 1.95% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2024 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | -12.10% | 6.60% | 5.27% | 1.33% |
| 2014 | 10 | -2.47% | 2.78% | 0.86% | 1.92% |
| 2009 | 15 | 1.19% | 9.47% | 6.47% | 2.99% |
| 2004 | 20 | 4.98% | 7.80% | 5.16% | 2.64% |
| 1999 | 25 | 9.52% | 18.34% | 12.51% | 5.83% |
| 1995 | 29 | 9.12% | 6.85% | 2.27% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.02, 8.41 and 10.80. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.20, 11.61 and 14.03. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.68, 10.40 and 14.94. The current P/E Ratio is 11.41 based on a stock price of $49.44 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $4.33 ($3.07 US$). The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in CDN$.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.05, 8.92 and 11.79. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.18, 11.50 and 13.83. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.83, 11.47 and 14.94. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 11.32 based on a stock price of $35.09 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $3.10. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$ but you will get a similar result in CDN$.
I get a Graham Price of $68.57. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 1.24 and 1.57. The current ratio is 0.72 based on a stock price of $49.44. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.91. The current ratio is 1.06 based on a stock price of $35.09, Book Value of $2,570M and Book Value per Share of $33.23. The current ratio is 45% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ but you will get a similar result in CDN$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.88. The current ratio is 2.31 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $15.16, Cash Flow of $1,175.5M, and a stock price of $35.09. The current ratio is 53% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ but you will get a similar result in CDN$.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.26%. The current dividend yield is 2.11% based on a stock price of $35.09 and dividends of $0.74. The current dividend yield is 7% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$ but you will get a similar result in CDN$.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.86%. The current dividend yield is 2.11% based on a stock price of $35.09 and dividends of $0.74. The current dividend yield is 14% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$ but you will get a similar result in CDN$.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.88. The current P/S Ratio is 0.74 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $3,671M, Revenue per Share of $47.47 and a stock price of $35.09. The current ratio is 16% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$ but you will get a similar result in CDN$.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The 10 year dividend yield test says this. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. A number of tests say that the stock price is cheap and others that it is reasonable and above or below the median.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), and Buy (5). The consensus is a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $68.46 ($48.55 US$) with a high of $91.65 ($65.00 US$) and low of $53.58 ($38.00 US$). The consensus stock price of $68.46 implies a total return of $40.57% with 38.46% from capital gains and 2.11% from dividends based on a current stock price of $49.44.
The few entries for 2025 on Stock Chase says to buy on weakness or watch. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says this stock is down year to date despite recent rally. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says this stock is a nice pick if you want exposure to the Chemical Industry. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2024. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter of 2025.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They believe it is trading well below its fair value. Simply Wall Street has two warnings on this stock of unstable dividend track record, and has a high level of debt.
Methanex Corp manufactures and sells methanol. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Europe. Its web site is here Methanex Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Stantec Inc (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Magna International Inc (TSX-MG, NYSE-MGA) ... learn more on Monday, December 1, 2025 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
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