Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I would worry about the very high valuation for this stock. Lots of the ratios are really high. Look at the Price/Graham Price Ratios which are 2.63, 3.23 and 4.09. Expected ratios would be between 0.80 and 1.20. They are not the only very high ratios. However, on a relatively bases, the stock price testing is showing the stock price as relatively reasonable.
I do not own this stock of FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV, NASDAQ-FSV). I bought FirstService Corp in 2002 as it looked like a good solid company that knows how to make money. By 2010 the company was underperforming so I sold the stock and kept the preferred shares until the end of the year before selling them too. I was cleaning up my portfolio in 2010. Actually, the stock is done quite well after I sold.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed the stock seems to be quite volatile in the last couple of years. This year it has had a high of $288.17 and low of 212.68, a 26% difference, in 2024 it has a high of $275.24 and low of $194.34, a 29% difference. These prices are in CDN$. It is in the Real Estate business. You see a similar pattern in US$ stock price chart.
If you had invested in this company in December 2014, for $1,021.26 you would have bought 34 shares at $30.04 per share. In December 2024, after 10 years you would have received $291.30 in dividends. The stock would be worth $8,853.26. Your total return would have been $9,144.56. This would be a total return of 25.31% per year with 24.11% from capital gain and 1.20% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $30.04 | $1,021.26 | 34 | 10 | $291.30 | $8,853.26 | $9,144.56 |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 0.73%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low at 0.58%, 0.66% and 0.68%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% per year) at 10.8% per year for the last 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2025 and it was for 10%.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2024 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 33% with 5 year coverage at 31%. The DPR for 2024 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for 2024 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 13% with 5 year coverage at 13%. The DPR for 2024 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 21% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The FCF variance for 2024 is from $165M to $210M. I used the $210M for DPR.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 32.83% | 30.77% |
| AEPS | 19.50% | 18.24% |
| CFPS | 12.80% | 12.91% |
| FCF | 20.87% | 17.61% |
Debt Ratios are mostly fine, but the company has a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2024 is good at 0.15 and currently at 0.17. The Liquidity Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.83 and 1.76 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2024 is good at 1.83 and 1.76 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2024 are fine at 2.56 and 1.56 and currently too high at 3.27 and 2.27.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Intang/GW | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| Liquidity | 1.83 | 1.76 |
| Liq. + CF | 2.17 | 2.19 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.83 | 1.76 |
| Leverage | 2.56 | 3.27 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.56 | 2.27 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2024 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 13.05% | 17.30% | 16.59% | 0.71% |
| 2014 | 10 | 11.70% | 25.31% | 24.11% | 1.20% |
| 2009 | 15 | 10.67% | 25.23% | 24.04% | 1.19% |
| 2004 | 20 | 17.10% | 16.56% | 0.54% | |
| 1999 | 25 | 18.38% | 17.91% | 0.47% | |
| 1995 | 29 | 21.12% | 20.64% | 0.48% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2024 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 10.76% | 14.89% | 14.24% | 0.65% |
| 2014 | 10 | 9.32% | 22.56% | 21.52% | 1.04% |
| 2009 | 15 | 8.44% | 22.44% | 21.55% | 0.89% |
| 2004 | 20 | 16.10% | 15.64% | 0.46% | |
| 1999 | 25 | 18.38% | 17.96% | 0.42% | |
| 1995 | 29 | 20.86% | 20.44% | 0.42% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 44.82, 54.94 and 65.78. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 37.20, 51.45 and 64.86. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.98, 19.13 and 24.82. The current ratio is 50.06 based on a stock price of $212.68 and EPS estimate for 2025 of $4.25. The current ratio is between the median and high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. Note that these ratios, except for the historical ones, are very high. This testing is in CDN$.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 26.59, 33.89 and 41.68. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.28, 29.72 and 36.05. The corresponding historical ratios are 17.19, 23.95 and 31.32. The current ratio is 26.47 based on a stock price of $151.41 and AEPS estimate for 2025 of $5.72. The current ratio is between the low and median ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$. Note that these ratios, except for the historical ones, are very high.
I get a Graham Price of $86.36. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.63, 3.23 and 4.09. The current ratio is 2.46 based on a stock price of $212.68. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. Note that these ratios are also very high. This testing is in CDN$.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 7.95. The current ratio is 5.17 based on a Book Value of $1,339.5M, Book Value per Share of $29.30 and a stock price of $151.41. The current ratio is 35% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$. Note that these ratios are very high.
I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $30.01. This implies a ratio of 5.05 with a Book Value of $1,371.8M and a stock price of $151.41. This ratio is 37% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$. Note that these ratios are very high.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 24.92. The current ratio is 17.79 based on a stock price of $151.41, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2025 of $8.51 and Cash Flow of $389M. The current ratio is 29% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.68%. The current dividend yield is $0.73 based on a stock price of $151.41 and dividends of $1.10. The current dividend yield is 7% above the historical median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.66%. The current dividend yield is $0.73 based on a stock price of $151.41 and dividends of $1.10. The current dividend yield is 11% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.48. The current ratio is 1.26 based on Revenue estimate for 2025 of $5,476M, Revenue per Share of $119.79 and a stock price of $151.41. The current ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively reasonable, but a lot of the ratios are very high. The Dividend Yield testing is showing that the stock price is reasonable and below the median. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Rest of the testing is showing that the stock price is relatively cheap or reasonable.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (3), and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price is $265.90 ($189.08 US$) with a high of $265.90 ($189.08 US$) and low of $265.90 ($189.08 US$). Above would imply only one price given. The 12 month stock price of $265.90 implies a total return of 25.75% with 25.03% from capital gains and 0.73% from dividends based on a current stock price of $212.68.
There are three entries on Stock Chase for this stock. Two Buys and a Watch. With the Watch comment the analyst was worried about the company’s rich valuation. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says to buy this low yield stock for long-term capital appreciation. Motley Fool says to buy during a market correction for long-term wealth creation. The company put out a press release via Globe Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2024. The company put out a press release via Globe Newswire about their third quarter of 2025.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock. They said that the stock price has gone down because analysts believe this company’s performance will be worse than the wider industry. Simply Wall Street has two warnings out on this stock of has a high level of debt; and significant insider selling over the past 3 months.
FirstService Residential has service contracts to manage thousands of residential communities, including high-, medium-, and low-rise condominiums and co-operatives. FirstService Brands generates the majority of the company's revenue and provides property services to residential and commercial customers. The company earns the majority of its revenue in the United States, with the remaining revenue generated in Canada. Its web site is here FirstService Corp.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Northland Power Inc (TSX-NPI, OTC-NPIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be First Capital REIT (TSX-FCR.UN, OTC-FCXXF) ... learn more on Wednesday, November 19, 2025 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Billion-Dollar Companies learn more on Tuesday, November 18, 2025 around 5 pm.
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