Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Analysts are still expecting this stock to do better than it has done for EPS, but Revenue has been close. The stock chart shows that the stock is relatively low for the last 5 years. It is probably cheap. I am not buying anymore of this stock, but I have not lost faith in the company and my ultimate ability to profit from this company. My testing is showing the stock price as relatively cheap.
I own this stock of Titanium Transportation Group Inc (TSX-TTNM, OTCQX-TTNMF). I found this stock on a blog of Our Life Financial. Unfortunately, most the items for this Substack blog are now for paying subscribers.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this stock was doing very well until 2022. There was a pull back for Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow for 2023. Revenue is expected to go in in 2024, but Earnings and Cash Flow is expected to go down again. Analysts expect that there will be an earnings loss in 2024, but the company will do better in 2025.
If you had invested in this company in December 2024, for $1,000.48 you would have bought 662 shares at $1.51 per share. In December 2023, after 9 years you would have received $172.12.21 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,535.84. Your total return would have been $1,707.96. This would be a total return of 6.21% per year with 4.88% from capital gain and 1.33% from dividends.
| Cost | Tot. Cost | Shares | Years | Dividends | Stock Val | Tot Ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.51 | $1,000.48 | 662 | 9 | $172.12 | $1,535.84 | $1,707.96 |
The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth non-existent. The dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.43%. The 3 year and historical dividend yield is moderate at 2.64%. Dividends have only been paid for 4 years and when I started to cover this stock and when I bought it, it had just started to pay dividends, so I you never know how that will go. So, far there has been no increase and analysts do not expect any change in this in the near future.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 36% with 5 year coverage at 23%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Operating Earnings (AOI) is good at 36% with 5 year coverage at 26%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 15% with 5 year coverage at 8%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is non-calculable because of negative FCF. This is not particularly good, but is not my favourite measure, although in the case, there does seem to be agreement on what the FCF is.
| Item | Cur | 4 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 36.36% | 23.64% |
| AOI | 36.36% | 25.90% |
| CFPS | 15.31% | 7.96% |
| FCF | -8.69% | -50.56% |
Debt Ratios need to improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is far too high at 1.28 and currently at 1.08. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is too low at 0.81 and 0.83 currently. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are too low at 1.01 and currently at 1.02. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is low at 1.42 and 1.44 currently. I prefer this ratio to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 3.41 and 2.41 and currently at 3.28 and 2.28. I prefer these ratios to be below 3.00 and below 2.00.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 1.28 | 1.08 |
| Intang/GW | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| Liquidity | 0.81 | 0.83 |
| Liq. + CF | 1.01 | 1.02 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.42 | 1.44 |
| Leverage | 3.41 | 3.28 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.41 | 2.28 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 9 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 0.00% | 15.68% | 12.81% | 2.87% |
| 2014 | 9 | 0.00% | 6.21% | 4.88% | 1.33% |
The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.27, 12.70 and 15.14. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.47, 10.56 and 14.65. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.47, 10.56 and 14.65. The current P/E Ratio is negative, so I cannot do any testing. The EPS estimate for 2024 is -$0.02.
The EPS estimate for 2025 is $0.12 and with a stock price of $2.33 gives us a P/E Ratio of 24.53. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The EPS for 2026 is $0.15 and with a stock price of $2.33 gives us a P/E Ratio of 15.53. This is also above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I also have Adjusted Operating Income data (AOI) or Adjusted Revenue after expenses. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Operating Income Ratios are 10.27, 12.70 and 15.14. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.01, 18.17 and 21.33. The current ratio is negative so I cannot use that in testing. The ratio for 2026 is 19.42 based on AOI estimate for 2026 of $0.12 with a stock price of $2.33. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a Graham Price of $2.19. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.60, 0.82 and 1.12. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.06 based on a stock price of $2.33. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.38. The current ratio is 1.04 based on a Book Value of $100.7M, Book Value per Share of $2.24 and a stock price of $2.33. The current ratio is 25% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.75. The current ratio is 4.77 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $21.96M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.49 and a stock price $2.33. The current ratio is 27% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get an historical and 3 year median dividend yield of 2.64%. The current dividend yield is 3.43% based on a stock price of $2.33 and dividends of $0.08. The current dividend yield is 30% above the historical and 3 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, this test works best with increasing dividends and dividends on this stock are flat.
The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.31. The current P/S Ratio is 0.23 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $461.3M, Revenue per Share of $10.26 and a stock price of $2.33. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is showing the stock price as relatively cheap. The dividend yield test shows that the stock price is cheap. This is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. Except for the P/B Ratio test, the other tests are showing the stock price as either reasonable and above the median or expensive.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (2). The consensus would be a Strong buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $4.192 with a high of $4.80 and a low of $3.75. The consensus stock price of $4.192 implies a total return of 83.35% with 79.91% from capital gains and 3.43% from dividends.
Last year I looked at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (4) and Buy (3). The consensus is a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $5.586, with the highest being $7.00 and lowest $4.50. The consensus stock price of $5.586 implies a total return of 103.81% with 100.94% from capital gains and 2.88% from dividends. What actually happened with a decline in the stock price of 58% to $2.33.
Analysts on Stock Chase do not follow this stock very much. The last entry was in 2021 and the analysts thought it was struggling them. Stock Chase gives this stock 1 stars out 5 stars. Adam Othman on Motley Fool though in 2021 that this would be a good stock for a TFSA. . The company put out a press release on Newswire about their fourth quarter of 2023. The company put out a Press Release on Newswire about their third quarter results for 2024.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance is rather negative on this stock because the company’ returns on capital is decreasing. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings out on this stock of Interest payments are not well covered by earnings; dividend of 3.43% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flows; and does not have a meaningful market cap (CA$104M). Simply Wall Street gives this stock 2 and one half stars out of 5.
Titanium Transportation Group Inc is assets-based transportation and logistics firm that provides services like truckload, dedicated, cross-border trucking services, freight logistics, warehousing, and distribution. The group has a business presence in Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Titanium Transportation Group Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (TSX-AEM, NYSE-AEM) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Propel Holdings Inc. (TSX-PLR, OTC-PRLPF) ... learn more on Friday, December 27, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Live Science Newsletter .... learn more on Thursday, December 26, 2024 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
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