Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is the price is probably on the expensive side. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on Propel Holdings Inc.
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This stock has only been on the TSX for 4 years. This is a highly speculative stock. It is testing as being expensive, however, these is little data to go on. The company is growing, so I am taking a chance. However, I am buying this with my fooling around money.
I do not own this stock of Propel Holdings Inc. (TSX-PRL, OTC-PRLPF), but I bought some today. When I was reading and article by Aditya Raghunath's on EQB, he also mentions this stock. I thought the stock looked interesting. See the Article. This is a new stock for me to follow.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock is growth very well. It has only been listed for 4 years. In the chart below, I am showing 4 total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over this year.
| Yr | Item | Tot. Grth | Per Year | Gwth | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Revenue Growth US$ | 365% | 46.90% | 31.58% | <-12 mths |
| 4 | AEPS Growth | 1125% | 87.08% | 5581.04% | <-12 mths |
| 4 | Net Income Growth | 1282% | 92.82% | 0.00% | <-12 mths |
| 4 | Cash Flow Growth | -236% | N/C | -89.34% | <-12 mths |
| 4 | CF Growth Excl. WC | 473 % | 54.73% | 29.63% | <-12 mths |
| 4 | Dividend Growth | 1081% | 85.39% | 38.25% | <-12 mths |
| 2 | Stock Price Growth | 49% | 22.16% | 229.61% | <-12 mths |
| 4 | Revenue Growth US$ | 365% | 46.90% | 42.15% | <-this year |
| 4 | AEPS Growth | 1125% | 87.08% | 64.29% | <-this year |
| 4 | Net Income Growth | 1282% | 92.82% | 79.65% | <-this year |
| 4 | Cash Flow Growth | -236% | N/C | -89.34% | <-this year |
| 4 | CF Growth Excl. WC | 473% | 54.73% | ||
| 4 | Dividend Growth | 1081 % | 85.39% | 31.72% | <-this year |
| 2 | Stock Price Growth | 49 % | 22.16% | 229.61% | <-this year |
The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.77%. The 4 year median dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.92%. The dividend growth is good (15% or higher per year) with dividends growing by 85% US$ (87% CDN$) per year over the past 4 years.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 39% with 5 year coverage high at 56%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 30% with 5 year coverage at 41%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 5% with 5 year coverage at 7%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is not calculable because FCF is negative. There is no agreement on what FCF is, but there is agreement that it is negative.
| Item | Cur | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | 38.86% | 56.37% |
| AEPS | 30.14% | 40.94% |
| CFPS | 5.20% | 6.88% |
| FCF | 0.00% | -12.64% |
Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.60 and currently at 0.33. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 10.87 and 11.05 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is fine at 1.42 and 1.42 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are fine for a financial at 3.39 and 2.39 and currently at 3.39 and 2.39.
| Type | Year End | Ratio Curr |
|---|---|---|
| Lg Term R | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| Intang/GW | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Liquidity | 10.87 | 11.05 |
| Liq. + CF | 10.29 | 10.02 |
| Debt Ratio | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| Leverage | 3.39 | 3.39 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.39 | 2.39 |
The Total Return per year is shown below for 3 years to the end of 2023 CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3 | 87.35% | 11.30% | 7.85% | 3.45% |
The Total Return per year is shown below for 3 years to the end of 2023 US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | 85.39% | 26.32% | 22.16% | 4.16% |
The 3-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.64, 18.19 and 24.73. The current P/E Ratio is 20.44 based on a stock price $36.77 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $1.80. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
Because we are so close to 2025, we should also look at the EPS estimate for 2025 and that is $3.33. This produces a P/E of 11.06. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 3-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.58, 13.40 and 18.22. The current P/E Ratio is 16.86 based on a stock price $36.77 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $2.18. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.
Because we are so close to 2025, we should also look at the AEPS estimate for 2025 and that is $3.40. This produces a P/E of 10.82. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I get a Graham Price of $15.55. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.38 and 1.88. The current ratio is 2.37 based on a stock price of $36.77. This ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. If you look at the Graham Price for 2025 it is 19.41 with a P/GP of 1.89. This ratio is just above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. So, this still suggests the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 3-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.63. The current ratio is 6.51 based on a stock price of $36.77, Book Value of $128M, and Book Value per Share of $3.72. This ratio is 147% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.
I have a Book Value per Share estimate for 2025 of $6.07. This implies a Book Value of $209M and a P/B Ratio of 3.99 with a stock price of $36.77. This ratio of 3.99 is 52% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 3-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 1.80. The current ratio is negative so I cannot do any testing here.
I get a 3 year median dividend yield of 3.92%. The current dividend yield is 1.63% based on a dividend of $0.60 and a stock price of $36.77. The current ratio is 58% below the 3 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 3-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.16. The current ratio is 2.13 based on a stock price of 36.77, Revenue estimate for 2024 of $595M, and revenue per share of $17.30. The current ratio is 84% above the 3 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The Revenue estimate for 2025 is $904M. This implies a ratio of 1.40 and Revenue per Share of $26.29 with a stock price of $36.77. This ratio is 21% above the 3 year median ratio. This is still testing as having a stock price that is relatively expensive, but it is close to reasonable.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is the price is probably on the expensive side. The dividend yield test says this. It is confirmed by the P/S Ratio testing. Even taking in 2025 Revenue estimates the P/S Ratios testing is showing the stock as expensive. It is only the EPS and AEPS testing for 2025 values that are showing the stock price as cheap to reasonable.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4) and Buy (3). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $42.75 ($31.68 US$) with a high of $45.15 ($33.46 US$) and low of $40.27 ($29.84 US$). The stock price consensus of $42.75 implies a total return of 28.10% with 26.33% from capital gains and 1.77% from dividends.
Analysts on Stock Chase like this stock and consider it a Buy. There are a number of entries for 2024. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Robin Brown on Motley Fool says that you could use this stock go build general wealth. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool thinks this undervalued growth stock is a top buy for 2025. The company put out a press release via Newswire on their fourth quarter results for 2023. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their third quarter of 2024.
Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says this stock is undervalued and worth $64.56 CDN$ a share. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings out on this stock of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; high level of non-cash earnings; significant insider selling over the past 3 months; and shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Propel Holdings Inc is a financial technology (fintech) company, committed to credit inclusion by facilitating fair, fast, and transparent access to credit through its proprietary, online lending platform. All the firm's operations are conducted through its consumer-facing brands: MoneyKey, CreditFresh, and Fora Credit. Its web site is here Propel Holdings Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Titanium Transportation Group Inc (TSX-TTNM, OTCQX-TTNMF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Guardian Capital Group (TSX-GCG.A, OTC- GCAAF) ... learn more on Monday, December 30, 2024 around 5 pm.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.
See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.
No comments:
Post a Comment