Russel Metals Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. The stock price seems reasonable, but above the median, but I would be cautious. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth non-existent. See my spreadsheet on Russel Metals Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I have not made much money on this stock but I still plan to hold on to what I have at present. This is a rather high risk stock, but I bought it for diversification. Most of the money I have earned comes from dividends. The testing is pointing to a reasonable price but above the median. However, I would be cautious and certainly feel more positive if the company raised the dividends being paid.

I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommended buying at that time.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I have made money on this stock that I bought for diversification, but I have not made much. To the end of January 2023, I have a Total return of 6.61% with 1.61% from capital gains and 5.00% from dividends. To January 2022, I had a Total Return of 6.56% with 1.70% from capital gains and 4.86% from dividends. The dividends are fine, but the capital gain is low. This is a cyclical stock. Dividends are fine, but capital gain is low. I would like it to be in the 4% to 5% range.

The company did better in 2022 than expected. Analysts expected the Revenue to decline slightly, but it went up 20%. They expected EPS to decline by 54%, but it only declined by 14%. Earnings for this company also seem cyclical.

The following table shows growth rate for the 5 year and 10 years. It is interesting that the lowest growth is with dividends and stock price. Dividend growth is usually based on how the company feels about the future and stock price growth is usually based on what analysts see as the future. Revenue also is lower in growth than EPS, Net Income and Cash Flow.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	53.84%	9.00%
5	EPS Growth	195.50%	24.20%
5	Net Income Growth	200.40%	24.61%
5	Cash Flow Growth	626.17%	48.66%
5	Dividend Growth	0.00%	0.00%
5	Stock Price Growth	-1.36%	-0.27%
10	Revenue Growth	69.01%	5.39%
10	EPS Growth	260.37%	13.68%
10	Net Income Growth	276.42%	14.17%
10	Cash Flow Growth	373.55%	16.83%
10	Dividend Growth	12.59%	1.19%
10	Stock Price Growth	4.39%	0.43%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,020.09 you would have bought 37 shares at $27.57 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $555.74 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1064.86. Your total return would have been $1,620.60.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$27.57	$1,020.09	37	10	$555.74	$1,064.86	$1,620.60

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% range) at 4.28%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.87%, 5.75% and 5.09%. The last dividend increase was 8 years ago in 2015 and it was a 4.1% raise. Analysts do not see any increase any time soon, i.e., the next 3 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 25.7% with 5 year coverage at 42%. The DPRs for EPS was over 100% between 2015 and 2020. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 17% with 5 year coverage at 24%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) by analysts for 2022 is 30% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The company has quite different values for FCF with DPR for their FCF for 2022 at 20% and 5 year coverage at 31%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2022 is good and low at 0.17. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is high and good at 3.73. The Debt Ratio for 2022 is high and good at 2.65. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are low and good at 1.61 and 0.61. Debt Ratio has historically been generally good for this company.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth.	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.00%	4.97%	-0.27%	5.24%
2012	10	1.19%	5.77%	0.43%	5.34%
2007	15	-0.93%	6.07%	0.82%	5.25%
2002	20	2.88%	22.87%	9.04%	13.83%
1997	25	4.40%	15.96%	7.90%	8.06%
1992	30	9.50%	11.93%	6.71%	5.22%
1990	32	4.70%	9.11%	4.93%	4.18%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.64, 7.35 and 9.06. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.49, 14.72 and 16.96. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.22, 9.69 and 14.38. The current P/E Ratio is 9.61 based on a stock price of $35.55 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $3.70. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. As you can see from my first chart, EPS has gone up a lot higher than the Stock Price over the past 5 and 10 years and this is why the 5 year ratios are so low.

I get a Graham Price of $45.72. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.88, 1.08 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.78 based on a stock price of $35.55. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.59. The current ratio is 1.42 based on a Book Value of $1559M, Book Value per Share of $25.10 and a stock price of $35.55. The current ratio is 11% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2023 and it is 27.50. This implies a Book Value of $1,708M and a P/B Ratio 1.29. This ratio is 18.7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. It is close to cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.80. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.43 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2023 of $3.41 and a stock price of $35.50. The current ratio is 80% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Analysts are projecting the Cash Flow per Share to fall 61% in 2023. You must wonder about this.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.09%. The current dividend yield is 4.28% based on dividends of $1.52 and a stock price of $35.55. The current yield is 16% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. Dividends have been flat from 2015.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.75%. The current dividend yield is 4.28% based on dividends of $1.52 and a stock price of $35.55. The current yield is 25.6% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Dividends have been flat from 2015.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.46. The current P/S Ratio is 0.50 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $4,413M, Revenue per Share of $71.05 and a stock price of $35.55. The current ratio is 9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price maybe reasonable. The price maybe reasonable, judging by the testing for the historical median dividend yield and the P/S Ratio testing. But I am hesitant because analysts expect a worse financial year in 2023m and the company is cautious as it is leaving the dividend flat. Some of my testing is saying the stock price is cheap and others that it is expensive.

The reason for the P/S Ratio test showing a reasonable but above the median stock price is that analysts expect Revenue to go down in 2023. They expected the Revenue go down by 4% in 2022, but it went up 20%. The testing for P/CF came in as expensive because analysts expect the Cash Flow per Share to drop in 2023 by 61%. They expected a drop also in 2022 of $30%, but CFPS went up 20%. But the company also seems negative about the future because they are not increasing the dividends.

If you look at Beginning ratios for P/E Ratios, P/S Ratios and yield compared to Total Returns for the 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 32 year periods, I find the following. For example, total return over the past 15 years is 6.07% per year, the starting P/E Ratio (the one from 15 years ago) was 14.46, starting P/S Ratio was 0.63 and starting yield was 3.92.

For the best returns on this company, the P/E Ratios of year 20 and 25 the P/E was lower than today. For best returns using P/S Ratios, was years 20 to 32 and all these P/S Ratios are lower than today. The yield is a bit more mixed as dividends were started some 30 years ago, then stopped and restarted 22 years ago. The current yield is only lower than it was 32 years ago.

From this history, the current stock price would appear to be on the expensive side. This is especially so for the P/S Ratio testing.

Year	Cap Gains	Tot Ret	Beg P/E	Beg P/S	Beg Yield
5	-0.27%	4.97%	14.59	0.55	5.21%
10	0.43%	5.77%	16.81	0.55	4.90%
15	0.82%	6.07%	14.46	0.63	6.88%
20	9.04%	22.87%	7.50	0.14	3.92%
25	7.90%	15.96%	9.56	0.13	0.00%
30	6.71%	11.93%	-16.40	0.15	2.44%
32	4.93%	9.11%	77.13	0.14	5.67%
current			9.61	0.50	4.28%

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $39.00. This implies a Total Return of 13.98% with 9.70% from capital gains and 4.28% from dividends based on a current stock price of $35.55.

Mostly analysts on Stock Chase like this stock, but there a sell rating last year. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense List with an A rating. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool and has a positive view of this stock. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool in November looked at 5 cheap stocks including this one. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their 2022 results. Simply Wall Street has a positive view of this stock in a report on Yahoo Finance. Simply Wall Street has one warning sign of significant insider selling over the past 3 months.

Russel Metals Inc is a Canada-based metal distribution company. The company conducts business primarily through three metals distribution segments: metals service centers; energy products; and steel distributors. The company generates all its revenue from the North American market. Its web site is here Russel Metals Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... learn more on Wednesday, March 1, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Dividend Stocks for 2023 .... learn more on Tuesday, February 29, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Choice Properties REIT

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying REIT. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but it is above the median. Debt Ratios need improving and they have a lot of debt. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth currently non-existent. See my spreadsheet on Choice Properties REIT.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a REIT and you would buy it for diversification reasons. I have a few REITs for this reason. I think this is a good REIT. The thing with REITs is that you will get half, or almost half of your total return from distributions. The price is currently reasonable, but above the median (or on the top end of a reasonableness range.)

I own this stock of Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF). I got this stock when CDN REIT was acquired by Choice Properties. Choice was originally a spin off from Loblaws. Later George Weston Limited (TSX-WN) in a reorganization received Loblaw’s share of Choice (61.6% interest) and Loblaws minority shareholders got George Weston Limited shares. The Weston Family owns a majority share in George Weston Ltd and George Weston Limited has a controlling interest in Loblaws.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done very well with this stock and Canadian REIT which was bought out with me receiving Choice shares. I bought Canadian REIT 16 years ago and I have made a total return of 10.52% per year with 5.38% from Capital gains and 5.14% from dividends. Since I have had Choice (from 2018), I have made a total return of 10.76% per year with 4.95% from capital gains and 5.48% from Dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,009.92 you would have bought 96 shares at $10.52 per share. In December 2022, after 9 years you would have received $553.20 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,416.96. Your total return would have been $1,970.16. This can be a benefit of dividend stock, where in this case you would not have lost money due to dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$10.52	$1,009.92	96	9	$553.20	$1,416.96	$1,970.16

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth currently non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4%) at 4.99%, but it is close to good (5% to 6% ranges). The 5, 9 year and historical median dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.66%, 5.51% and 5.51%. Dividends have been paid for 9 years which was when this company was listed. Dividends have been flat since 2018. Some Analysts thinks there might be small increases soon.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 72% with 5 year coverage at 188%. I also have Funds from Operations (FFO), and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. Dividend DPRs are usually based on these values. The DPR for 2022 for FFO is 77% with 5 year coverage at 76%. The DPR for 2022 for AFFO is 92% with 5year coverage at 90%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 29% with 5 year coverage at 34%. There is no agreement on what the Free Cash Flow but the differences are that high. One has DPR for 2022 at 58% with 5 year coverage at 83%.

Debt Ratios need improving and they have a lot of debt. I get a Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio of 0.59 and this is fine. I get a Liquidity Ratio of 3.28 but this is not an important one for REITs. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.29 and I would like it to be higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 4.40 and 3.40 are too high and I would like them to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 9 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	0.34%	7.37%	2.03%	5.34%
2013	9	1.45%	9.70%	3.83%	5.87%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.77, 14.61and 15.45. The corresponding 9 year ratios are 13.44, 14.23 and 15.01. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.44, 14.23 and 15.01. The current P/E Ratio is 14.42 based on a stock price of $14.83 and EPS for the last 12 months of $1.03. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 9 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.56, 1394 and 16.00. The corresponding 9 year ratios are 11.55, 13.09 and 14.79. The current P/E Ratio is 14.98 based on FFO estimate for 2023 of $0.99 and a stock price of $14.83. The current ratio is above the 9 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.54, 16.05 and 18.79. The corresponding 9 year ratios are 13.87, 1575 and 17.74. The current P/E Ratio is 16.48 based on AFFO estimate for 2023 of $0.90 and a stock price of $14.83. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 9 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $14.65. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 0.91 and 1.03. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.01 based on a stock price of $14.83. The current ratio is between the median and high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.54 based on a Book Value of $3,816M, Book Value per Share of $9.64 and a stock price of $14.83. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.78. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.27 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $633M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.60 and a stock price of $14.83. The current ratio is 94% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 9 year and historical median dividend yield of 5.51%. The current dividend yield is 4.99% based on a stock price of $14.83 and dividends of $0.74. The current ratio is 9% below the 9 year and historical ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 9-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.13. The current P/S Ratio is 7.63 based on a stock price of $14.83, Revenue estimate for 2023 of $1,406M and Revenue per Share of $1.94. The current ratio is 7% above the 9 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but it is above the median. The 9 year and historical median dividend tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The dividend yield tests do not work as well with flat dividends. However, dividends are set depending on how management sees the future, so they so have some validity. Most of the testing is showing a stock price that is reasonable but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3) and Hold (5) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price if $15.75. This implies a total return of 11.19% with 6.20% from capital gains and 4.99% from dividends based on a current stock price of $14.83.

This stock is well liked by analysts on Stock Chase . Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is not on the Money Sense list because this list has no REITs. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says to buy this for passive monthly income. Robin Brown on Motley Fool also thinks this stock is a buy for passive monthly income. The company put out a Press Release about their fourth quarter for 2022.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about recent insider buying. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street has 3 warnings of interest payments are not well covered by earnings; unstable dividend track record; large one-off items impacting financial results. Dividends are not unstable, but if you American, they are paid in CDN$, so dividends will fluctuate with the US$, CDN$ exchange rate.

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust invests in, manages, and develops retail and commercial properties across Canada. The company's portfolio primarily consists of shopping centers anchored by supermarkets and stand-alone supermarkets. The properties are mostly located in Ontario and Quebec, followed by Alberta, Nova Scotia, British Columbia, and New Brunswick. Its web site is here Choice Properties REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... learn more on Monday, February 27, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Manulife Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. It may also be cheap. Debt Ratios are fine, but it does have a lot of debt. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are good with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Manulife Financial Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I still think that I will do well with this stock over the long term. The stock price is certainly reasonable. There is a sell recommendation on Stock Chase and Brian Madden says that the company cannot break through $30 and that is a problem. He says to buy at the bottom of it range and sell at the time. He thinks what is holding them back is liabilities in the US. Other analysts on Stock Chase think better of this stock.

I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). This company was demutualized in 1999 and it turned into a dividend growth stock. I bought this company for the first time in 2005. Analysts liked it and it was a dividend growth stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I have not made much on this stock today. I have had it for almost 18 years and my total return is 3.18% per year with 0.28% from capital gains and 2.90% from dividends. I still think this stock is worthwhile holding. I know when interest rates hit an historical low that Life Insurance companies were in difficulties. I hope for a better future now that interest rates are rising. Dividends have covered 47% of purchase price. On my earliest purchase in 2005, I am making 5.1% on the purchase price.

The Total Revenue for this company fell some 72% because of Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on assets supporting insurance and investment contract liabilities and on the macro hedge program. Net Premium Income fell only 3%.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.45%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.63%, 3.90% and 3.15%. The dividends are increasing at a moderate rate (8% to 14% ranges) at 10% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 10.6% and it was in 2023.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 35.9% with 5 year coverage at 36.2%. The DPR for 2022 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is 42.6% with 5 year coverage at 37%. The DPR for 2022 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is 11.6% with 5 year coverage at 10.3%. The DPR for 2022 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is 7.9% with 5 year coverage at 7.3%.

Debt Ratios are fine, but it does have a lot of debt. Because it is a financial, I am looking at Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio and this is 1.07, which is too high. The company has a lot of debt. I get a Liquidity Ratio of 1.16, but this is not important. The Debt Ratio is 1.07 and this is fine for a Life Insurance Company

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	9.99%	2.69%	-1.63%	4.33%
2012	10	9.76%	10.78%	5.98%	4.80%
2007	15	2.74%	-0.84%	-3.40%	2.56%
2002	20	7.34%	5.41%	1.76%	3.64%
1999	23	8.55%	8.68%	4.27%	4.41%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.53, 7.14 and 9.46. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.19, 10.26 and 12.21. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.82, 13.76 and 15.86. The current P/E Ratio is 8.12 based on a stock price of $26.78 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $3.30. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.75, 7.78 and 9.00. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 7.09, 9.13 and 10.55. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 8.16 based on a stock price of $26.78 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $3.28. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $44.30. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.56, 0.73 and 0.85. The current ratio is 0.55 based on a stock price of $26.78. This ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.04. The current P/B Ratio is 1.01 based on a stock price of $26.87, Book Value of $49,288M and Book Value per Share of $26.43. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have an estimate of $25.40 for the Book Value per Share for 2023. This ratio implies a P/B Ratio of 1.05 and Book Value of $47,371M with a stock price of $26.78. This ratio is 2% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.47. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.36 based on stock price of$26.78, Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) estimate for 2023 of $4.21 and Cash Flow of $7,852M. The current ratio is 158% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, the CFPS of $4.21 makes no sense to me. The running 5 year average is $10.41 and CFPS for last two years was 11.92 and 9.51.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.15%. The current dividend yield is 5.45% based on dividends of $1.46 and a stock price of $26.78. The current yield is 73% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.90%. The current dividend yield is 5.45% based on dividends of $1.46 and a stock price of $26.78. The current yield is 40% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.80. The current P/S Ratio is 0.89 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $56,067, Revenue per Share of $30.06 and a stock price $26.78. The current ratio is 12% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. It may also be cheap. The dividend yield tests are saying the stock price is cheap, but this is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test which says the stock price is reasonable, but above the median. Other good tests say the stock price is either cheap for reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (3), Hold (9) Underperform (1) and Sell (1). The consensus would be a Hold, but the recommendations are all over the place. The 12 month stock price consensus is $28.72. This implies a total return of 12.70% with 7.24% from capital gains and 5.45% from dividends based on a current price of $26.78.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Money Sense ranges this stock 11 out of 100 dividend stocks. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks this stock is cheap and buyable. Adam Othman on Motley Fool says this is a stable stock to use to build wealth. The company has a press release on Newswire about this 2022 results.

A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talks about analysts upgrading their revenue and earnings estimates. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list one warning of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.5% per year for the next 3 years.

Manulife provides life insurance, annuities, and asset management products to individuals and group customers in Canada, the United States, and Asia. The U.S. business contributes about 30% of earnings. The Asia segment provides products in over 11 countries and contributes around 30% of earnings. The Canadian business segment contributes approximately 20% of earnings. Its web site is here Manulife Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was be ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) ... learn more on Friday, February 24, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Canadian Tech.... learn more on Thursday, February 23, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

ARC Resources Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Resource. The stock price is reasonable and may even be cheap. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The dividend yields are moderate with dividend going from being cut to being increased. See my spreadsheet on ARC Resources Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a resource stock, so it is risky and cyclical. You could buy it for diversification reasons or buy it for passive dividends or buy it relatively cheap and sell it relatively high for capital gains. The company has been around for some 26 years. It has paid dividends for 26 years. Most old income trust companies had to cut dividends as this stock did. Recently the dividends have been raised. It is certainly selling at a reasonable price and it may even be selling cheap.

I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that analyst switched from following Revenue before Royalties to Net Revenue. Sometimes this happens and I generally go back and try to reconstruct what Revenue would be in the past based on the new way of looking at revenue.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,002.04 you would have bought 41 shares at $24.44 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $288.07 in dividends. The stock would be worth $748.25. Your total return would have been $1,036.32. This can be a benefit of dividend stock, where in this case you would not have lost money due to dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$24.44	$1,002.04	41	10	$288.07	$748.25	$1,036.32

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend going from being cut to being increased. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.05%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate at 4.38% and 4.27%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% and above) at 7.73%.

Dividends were either flat or cut from 2009. To the end of 2022, dividends were cut by 6% per year over the past 5 years. Dividends were raised 10% in 2021, then raised 51.5% in 2022, half way through 2022 they were raised another 20% and then another 25% in 2023. Current dividends are still 77.5% below the dividends of 2008. What complicates things is that this company used to be an income trust and income trusts had very high yields. Most old income trust companies had to cut dividends or keep them flat for a long time to bring them in line with those for a corporation.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2022 for EPS is 13% with 5 year coverage at 58%. The DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) for 2022 is 8% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 7% with 5 year coverage at 14%. The DPR for 2022 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is 6% with 5 year coverage at 21%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.09 and is low and good. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.57, but if you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is good at 2.65. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.34. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good at 1.75 and 0.75.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	-6.01%	7.07%	4.35%	2.72%
2012	10	-9.55%	0.40%	-2.88%	3.28%
2007	15	-10.69%	4.78%	-0.74%	5.52%
2002	20	-6.13%	14.30%	2.08%	12.22%
1997	25	-4.52%	16.45%	2.31%	14.14%
1996	26	-4.89%	12.77%	1.36%	11.41%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 3.42, 4.90 and 6.38. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.67, 12.20 and 15.73. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.69, 11.99 and 14.30. The current P/E Ratio is 4.69 based on a stock price of $14.81 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $3.16. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $27.60. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 1.07 and 1.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.54 based on a stock price of $14.81. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.68. The current P/B Ratio is 1.38 based on a stock price of $14.81, Book Value of $6,654M, and Book Value per Share of $10.72. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 0.57. The current ratio is 0.43 based on a stock price of $14.81, Cash Flow of $3,272M, and Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $5.27. The current ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.73%. The current dividend yield is 4.05% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $14.81. The current yield is 48% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, this stock used to be an income trust and income trusts could have much higher dividends than corporations.

I get a 10 median dividend yield of 4.27%. The current dividend yield is 4.05% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $14.81. The current yield is 5% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.70. The current P/S Ratio is 1.56 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $5,913M, Revenue per Share of $9.52 and a stock price of $14.81. The current ratio is 58% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is certainly reasonable and may even be cheap. The dividend yield test for the past 10 years says the stock price is reasonable and the P/S Ratio test says it is cheap. When I look at the other testing, the stock price looks cheap expect for the P/B Ratio test which says the stock price is reasonable.

The problem with the dividend yield test is that it works best on dividend growth stock and this stock has been cutting dividends until 2021 when it began to raise them again. The stock also used to be a income trust company and these companies can pay much higher dividends than corporations.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (6) and Buy (10) recommendations. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $23.47. This implies a total return of $62.53% with 58.47% from capital gains and 4.05% from dividends.

Last year, when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (6), and Buy (9). The consensus was a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price was $19.93. This implies a total return of 33.40% with 30.77% from capital gains and 2.62% from dividends based on a stock price of $15.24. What happened was that the stock price dropped some 25.69%, so there was a loss of 22.77% with the capital loss of 25.69% and dividends of 2.92%.

All the recommendations for 2023 on Stock Chase is Top Pick or Past Top Pick. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on Money Sense list with a B rating. Vineet Kulkarni on Motley Fool thinks this stock has limited downside, but it is risky. Vineet Kulkarni on Motley Fool thinks the dropping price of this company makes it a buying opportunity. The company via Newswire put out a press release on their fourth quarter of 2022.

A report from Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says they feel that the company’s performance has been good, but they have reservations. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list two warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.4% per year for the next 3 years; and unstable dividend track record.

ARC Resources is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of conventional oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company produces light, medium, and heavy crude, condensate, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its web site is here ARC Resources Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 22, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Banks and Ratios 2.... learn more on Tuesday, February 21, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Intact Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: xxx. I think that the current stock price is on the expensive side. Debt Ratios are fine, but it does have a lot of debt. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Intact Financial Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think this stock is currently expensive because of the dividend yield tests. It is a good company and has done well for shareholders in the past. It may not be a good time to buy at present. Buying stock at a reasonable price affects long term results. Analysts seem to feel differently, but most stocks most of the time show was a buy from analysts.

I do not own this stock of Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF). I am following this stock because in November 2011, the TD Bank put out a special report on the merits of dividend investing. At the end of the report, they listed several Canadian stocks as Equity Yield ideas. This was one stock listed that I did not follow.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that year over year for 2021-2022, dividends went up 17.7%. This is because year over year dividend increases for 2020 and 2021 was just 2.4% and an increase for 2021 was at the end of the year.

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,036.32 you would have bought 16 shares at $64.77 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $435.84 in dividends. The stock would be worth $3,118.56. Your total return would have been $3,554.40.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$64.77	$1,036.32	16	10	$435.84	$3,118.56	$3,554.40

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.98%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.50%, 2.55% and 2.59%. The dividend increases are moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.3% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2022 and it was for 9.9%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2022 is 30% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) for 2022 is 25% with 5 year coverage at 38%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2022 is 22%, with 5 year coverage at 27%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2022 is 15% with 5 year coverage at 22%.

Debt Ratios are fine, but it does have a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2022 is 0.35 and is good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2022 is low at 1.36, but add in Cash Flow after Dividends and it is good at 1.76. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.32. I prefer this to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 4.14 and 3.14 and I prefer them lower.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 18 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	9.34%	15.63%	13.17%	2.45%
2012	10	9.60%	14.14%	11.65%	2.50%
2007	15	9.12%	13.79%	11.21%	2.59%
2004	18	11.28%	13.70%	11.10%	2.60%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.06, 18.45 and 21.84. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.96, 17.94 and 20.35. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.90, 13.95 and 15.43. The current P/E Ratio is 18.75 based on a stock price of $202.53 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $10.80. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) ratios. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.78, 15.66 and 18.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.38, 16.68 and 18.59. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 15.71 based on a stock price of $202.53 and AEPS estimate for 2023 of $12.89. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $161.11. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.14, 1.26 and 1.37. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.26 based on a stock price of $202.53. The current ratio is at the median of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.07. The current ratio is 2.26 based on a Book Value of $15,685M, Book Value per Share of $89.30 and a stock price of $202.53. The current ratio is 9.5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 12.87. The current P/CF Ratio is 9.38 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $3,665, Cash Flow per Share of $20.91 and a stock price of $202.53. The current ratio is 24.8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.59%. The current dividend yield is 1.98% based on a stock price of $202.53 and dividends of $4.00. The current dividend yield is 23.7% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.55%. The current dividend yield is 1.98% based on a stock price of $202.53 and dividends of $4.00. The current dividend yield is 22.6% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.58. The current P/S Ratio is 1.74 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $20,452M, Revenue per Share of $116.70. The current ratio is 10% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. I do like the dividend yield tests the best and they do say the stock price is expensive. The P/S Ratio test just says it is above the median, but still reasonable. The reason I like the P/S Ratio test as it is revenue that ultimately pushes earnings, cash flow and sometimes dividends. Some of the other tests say it is reasonable but above the median.

I can look at the total return over several years. For P/S Ratio and P/E Ratio, the lower the ratio the cheaper the stock. For yield, the higher the yield, the cheaper the stock. In this chart you can see that both the P/E Ratio and P/S Ratio are currently higher than in the past and the Dividend yield is lower.

In the following chart the capital gains for the 10 years to December 31, 2021 is 11.65% per year. The beginning yield was at 2.47%, and the P/E Ratio and the P/S Ratio were at 14.96 and 1.32. Does this chart change my opinion of the stock price? No. I still like the dividend yield test because we know what the dividends are, for the other items, they are based on analysts’ estimates.

Years	Cap Gains	Total Ret.	Beg P/E	Beg P/S	Beg Yield
5	13.17%	15.63%	18.26	1.71	2.44%
10	11.65%	14.14%	14.96	1.32	2.47%
15	11.21%	13.79%	9.88	1.25	2.73%
18	11.10%	13.70%	4.52	1.12
current			18.75	1.74	1.98%

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (9), Hold (1) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $221.08. The 12 month stock price consensus is $221.08. This implies a total return of 11.13% with 9.16% from capital gains and 1.98% from dividends.

Analyst on Stock Chase like this company. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on Money Sense list with a B rating. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks this is a good insurance stock to buy for growth. Kay Ng on Motley Fool thinks this is a top insurance stock to buy. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their 2022 results. There is an article on this stock on American Banking and Market News. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Simply Wall Street gives one warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the next 3 years.

Intact Financial Corp is a property and casualty insurance company that provides written premiums in Canada. The company distributes insurance under the Intact Insurance brand through a network of brokers and a wholly-owned subsidiary, BrokerLink, and directly to consumers through Belairdirect. Its web site is here Intact Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more on Monday, February 20, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Richelieu Hardware Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Stock price is reasonable and maybe even be cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I own this company and I intend to continue to hold it. I think the company is good and has a good possible future. The dividend yield on this company is often below 1.00% and I do not buy companies when the dividend yield is below 1%. I wait for an opportunity when the dividend yield is higher than 1%. It is now. I personally will not be buying anymore because I feel I have enough of this stock.

I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommended by the Investment Reporter. It was for my Pension Account. I did sell this in 2015 because of the low dividend when I started to withdrawal money from this account. In 2009, I bought this stock for my trading account and I still have it in this account.

I have made a total return of $16.25% per year with 14.70% from capital gains and 1.55% from dividends. I have had this stock for 14 years in my Trading Account.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that because of dividend growth, you could do well with dividends in the longer term. The chart below illustrates this. If dividends keep growing at 18.05%, then in 10 years’ time, your dividends would be $3.15, your yield would be 7.65% on your original purchase price and dividends would have covered 30.97% of your purchase price. This is a reason to buy companies with low dividends, but good growth.

Div Pd	Div Yld	Years	At IRR	Div Cov
$1.38	3.34%	5	18.05%	10.42%
$3.15	7.65%	10	18.05%	30.97%
$7.23	17.54%	15	18.05%	78.10%

When you look at growth over the past 5 and 10 years, what I see is that the stock price has not kept up other growth. However, the stock price is up so far this year by 14%.

Year	Item	Tot. Growth	Per Year
5	Revenue Growth	91.27%	13.85%
5	EPS Growth	160.00%	21.06%
5	Net Income Growth	148.71%	19.99%
5	Cash Flow Growth	0.00%	11.68%
5	Dividend Growth	129.28%	18.05%
5	Stock Price Growth	15.24%	2.88%
10	Revenue Growth	218.63%	12.29%
10	EPS Growth	317.21%	15.35%
10	Net Income Growth	270.87%	14.00%
10	Cash Flow Growth	0.00%	22.93%
10	Dividend Growth	225.00%	12.51%
10	Stock Price Growth	248.93%	13.31%

If you had invested in this company in December 2012, for $1,009.97 you would have bought 82 shares at $12.32 per share. In December 2022, after 10 years you would have received $208.84 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,969.22. Your total return would have been $3,178.06.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$12.32	$1,009.97	82	10	$208.84	$2,969.22	$3,178.06

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.45%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0.80%, 0.91% and 1.10%. The dividend growth is good (15% and higher per year) at 18% per year for the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2023 and it was for 15.4%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2022 for EPS is 17% with 5 year coverage also at 17%. The DPR for 2022 for Cash Flow per Share is 13% with 5 year coverage also at 13%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) fore 2022 non-calculable because the FCF is negative. The 5 year coverage is 29%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt is so low that the Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.00. The Liquidity Ratio is good and high at 2.62. The Debt Ratio is good and high at 2.77. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good and low at 1.57 and 0.57 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2022. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2017	5	18.05%	1.97%	1.10%	0.88%
2012	10	12.51%	12.61%	11.39%	1.23%
2007	15	12.13%	11.75%	10.54%	1.21%
2002	20	14.18%	11.76%	10.56%	1.20%
1997	25		17.29%	15.63%	1.66%
1993	29		15.70%	14.46%	1.24%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.99, 19.45 and 21.81. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.53, 22.17 and 19.82. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.09, 15.71 and 19.21. The current P/E Ratio is 17.18 based on a stock price of $41.24 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $2.40. The current ratio is between the low and median 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $28.12. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.34, 1.64 and 1.97. The current ratio is 1.47 based on a stock price of $41.24. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.22. The current ratio is 2.82 based on a Book Value of $818M, Book Value per Share of $14.65 and a stock price of $41.24. The current ratio is 13% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have an Book Value per Share (BVPS) estimate for 2023 of $16.20. This implies a P/B Ratio of 2.55 with Book Value of $904M and a stock price of $41.24. This ratio is 21% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 21.08 but the Cash Flow per Share for the last 12 months is negative, so this cannot be tested.

However, I have a 10 year median P/CF Ratio for Cash Flow excluding Working Capital (WC). That ratio is 15.59. The current P/CF ratio for Cash Flow excluding WC is 10.25 based on Cash Flow excluding WC for the last 12 months of 225M, Cash Flow excluding WC per Share 4.02. This current ratio is 34% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.10%. The current dividend yield is $1.45% based on a stock price of $41.24 and dividends of $0.60. The current dividend yield is 32% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 0.91%. The current dividend yield is $1.45% based on a stock price of $41.24 and dividends of $0.60. The current dividend yield is 61% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.52. The current P/S Ratio is 1.31 based on Revenue estimate for 2023 of $1,757M, Revenue per Share of $31.50 and a stock price of $41.24. The current ratio is 14% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap. The dividend yield tests are saying the stock price is cheap. The P/S Ratio is saying that the stock price is reasonable. Most of the other testing is saying the stock price is reasonable with P/CF Ratio test saying the stock price is cheap.

If you look at the starting values for the ratios I test for, the P/E Ratio is a little high but there were good returns with P/E Ratios around 17.00. The P/S Ratio currently is higher that for other years except 5 years ago. The Dividend yield is higher than for other years. This does not change my conclusion that the stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap.

# Years	Cap Gains	Tot. Ret.	Beg P/E	Beg P/S	Beg Yield
5	1.10%	1.97%	29.82	2.08	0.67%
10	11.39%	12.61%	17.19	1.23	1.43%
15	10.54%	11.75%	16.55	1.22	1.22%
20	10.56%	11.76%	17.38	1.16
25	15.63%	17.29%	11.41	0.67
29	14.46%	15.70%	10.52	0.89
current			17.18	1.31	1.45%

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), and Buy (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $50.00. This implies a total return of $22.70% with 1.45% from dividends and 21.24% from capital gains based on a stock price of $41.24.

The last two analysts on Stock Chase say it is their Top Pick. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It is on the Money Sense list with a C rating. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool says that Richelieu registered only a 1.3% year over year increase for EPS, so had only a minor gain. Jitendra Parashar on Motley Fool reviews this stock. The company put out a press release on Newswire about their 2022 results.

Simply Wall Street put out a report via Yahoo Finance and saying this stock maybe a multi-bagger. Simply Wall Street puts out 2 warnings of earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 10.3% per year for the next 3 years; and high level of non-cash earnings

Richelieu Hardware Ltd is a Canada-based company that imports, manufactures, and distributes specialty hardware and complementary products. Headquartered in Montreal, the company operates across Canada and the eastern and midwestern regions of the United States. The majority of the company's sales are derived from its operations in Canada. Its web site is here Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX-AP.UN, OTC-APYRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) ... learn more on Friday, February 17, 2023 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Retiring Early .... learn more on Thursday, February 16, 2023 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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