High Liner Foods

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumer. The price seems reasonable, but at the high side of the reasonable range. Wither this stock can be seen as a dividend growth is not clear, but over the past 22 years, it has raised the dividends 11 times and decreased it 2 times (both recent). You have to wonder if this is a buy and hold type stock as long term shareholders have not always done very well. But, Debt Ratios and DPR Ratios seem fine at present. See my spreadsheet on High Liner Foods.

I do not own this stock of High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF). This is a stock liked by the Investment Reporter and is considered to be of average risk. The MPL Communication’s site is here. Ryan Irvine of Keystone also likes this company.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed both Revenue and Earnings have been going down over the past few years. However, analysts expect this to change in 2021. For example, Revenue was $1,054M in 2017, but declined to 828M in 2020. Analysts expect the Revenue to grow by 3.09% and 5.28% in 2021 and 2022 rather than decline as it did from 2017 to 2020.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth currently pausing. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% range) at 2.11%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 3.22%, 3.57% and 2.56%. The company started dividends in 2003 and started to raise them in 2008, but in 2019 they decreased the dividends by 66%, then in 2020 they raised the dividends by 40%. I suspect they will grow their dividend again when business improved.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 21% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for EPS was high in 2019 at 74% and they cut their dividend to bring this DPR under control. Analysts expect that the DPR for EPS will be around 19% in 2021. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share in 2020 was 6.6% with 5 year coverage at 15%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 was 8% with 5 year coverage at 28%. Some sites agree on FCF. The DPR for FCF and CFPS has been good in the past.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap too high at 0.91, but is better than previous years (2019 the ratio was 1.40). Prior to 2017, this ratio was good. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 2.31. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.60. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.67 and 1.67.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 37 to the end of 2020 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	-13.90%	-3.36%	-6.52%	3.16%
2010	10	2.92%	7.19%	3.17%	4.02%
2005	15	5.40%	9.91%	6.13%	3.78%
2000	20	5.05%	12.21%	8.62%	3.59%
1995	25		8.64%	6.32%	2.32%
1990	30		0.97%	-0.26%	1.23%
1985	35		-1.34%	-2.32%	0.98%
1983	37		0.34%	-0.72%	1.06%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2020 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	-12.44%	-1.33%	-4.57%	3.24%
2010	10	0.43%	4.53%	0.89%	3.64%
2005	15	4.78%	9.48%	5.60%	3.88%
2004	16	4.68%	8.27%	4.74%	3.53%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.31, 13.93 and 19.13. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.05, 15.13 and 21.02. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.35, 10.65 and 13.15. The current P/E Ratio 8.61 based on a stock price of $13.25 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $1.54 ($1.22 US$). The current ratio is below the low 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $20.54. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 1.12 and 1.47. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.65 based on a stock price of $13.25. The current ratio is below the low 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.07. The current P/B Ratio is 1.15 based on a stock price of $11.05, Book Value of $322M and a Book Value per Share of $9.65. The current ratio is 45% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$ testing.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.10. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.23 based on a stock price of $11.05, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $1.08 and Cash Flow of $36M. The current ratio is 101% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is expensive. A problem here is that Cash Flow tends to be rather volatile for this company. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$ testing.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.56%. The current dividend yield is 2.11% based on a stock price $13.25 and dividends of $0.28. The current yield is 17% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.57%. The current dividend yield is 2.11% based on a stock price $13.25 and dividends of $0.28. The current yield is 17% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.40. The current P/S Ratio is 0.43 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $853M, Revenue per Share of $25.60 and a stock price of $11.05. The current ratio is 8/% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in US$. You will get similar results in CDN$ testing.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable but above the median. The dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. A problem is the dividends were recently cut by 50%.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price would seem reasonable at present if a bit on the high side. This company has had a very checkered past. You can see this reflected in the total returns in CDN$ chart above over the past 37 years. It is not a good sign that they recently cut their dividends. What a company does with their dividends shows how confident management is in the future. It would not seem to be a company to just buy and hold. You would also have to be careful about paying too much for this stock.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1), and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $16.87 ($13.37 US$). This implies a total return of 29.45% with 27.33% from capital gains and 2.11% from dividends.

Analysts at Stock Chase are quite negative about this company. Nikhil Kumar on Motley Fool says following the execution of the company’s critical initiative plan in 2020, High Liner Foods is a more profitable business. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and lists 3 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street says investors should keep an eye on the debt of this company. Cliff White writes an article on this stock on Sea Food Source.

High Liner Foods Inc is a Canadian company which is mainly engaged in the processing and marketing of prepared and packaged frozen seafood products. The company sells its products to institutions, health care facilities, and quick-service family and casual dining establishments. Its web site is here High Liner Foods.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Capital Power Corp (TSX-CPX, OTC-CPRHF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be SmartCentres REIT (TSX-SRU.UN, OTC-CWYUF) ... learn more on Wednesday, September 1, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Consumer Stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, August 31, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Capital Power Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price seems to be current expensive. The DPR for EPS needs improving, but DPR for Cash Flow is good. Some Debt Ratios need improving. See my spreadsheet on Capital Power Corp.

I do not own this stock of Capital Power Corp (TSX-CPX, OTC-CPRHF). Capital power Corp is in John Heinzl’s yield Hog model portfolio. In Money Sense annual list of the 100 best dividend stocks for 2021, this stock was rated an A.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS is much too high. In 2020 it is 254% with 5 year coverage at 151%. Analyst do not expect this to be below 100% until 2023.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.04%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yield are also good at 6.60%, 6.27% and 5.99%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is low (below 8%) at 6.7% per year. The last dividend increase was for 6.8% and it was made in 2021.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving for the EPS. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 254% with 5 year coverage at 151%. Analysts do not expect this ratio to be under 100% until 2023. For most of its history (from 2009 IPO) the DPR for EPS has been over 100%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 28% with 5 year coverage at 31%. (This is good as any ratio at 40% or less is good.) The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 78% with 5 year coverage at 150%. However, sites do not agree on what the FCF is.

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.84 which I think is fine, but some analysts like this ratio to be 0.50 or less. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.01. If you add in Cash Flow after Dividend it is 1.30. This is low, as I prefer it to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio is 1.49. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 4.58 and 3.07 and this are too high. I prefer them to be below 3.00 and below 2.00, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 11 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	6.73%	22.01%	14.51%	7.51%
2010	10	4.48%	9.28%	3.99%	5.28%
2009	11	4.06%	10.09%	4.58%	5.51%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 21.73,23.18 and 26.77. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 21.89, 25.43 and 28.67. The corresponding historical ratios are 21.89, 25.56 and 28.67. The current P/E Ratio is 21.83 based on a stock price of $43.44 and EPS estimate for 2021 of 1.99. The current ratio is below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $29.53. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.10 and 1.19. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.47 based on a stock price of $43.44. The current ratio is above the high 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.03. The current P/B Ratio is 2.23 based on a stock price of $43.44, Book Value of $1,947M and Book Value per Share of $8.34. The current ratio is 116% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. The Book Value per Share has gone down by 4.8% per year over the past 5 years. This is never a good sign.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.19. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.34 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $6.85, Cash Flow of $779M and a stock price of $43.44. The current ratio is 22% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.99%. The current dividend yield is 5.04% based on dividends of $2.19 and a stock price of $43.44. The current dividend yield is 16% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.27%. The current dividend yield is 5.04% based on dividends of $2.19 and a stock price of $43.44. The current dividend yield is 19.6% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.66. The current P/S Ratio is 2.63 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $1,876M, Revenue per Share of $16.51 and a stock price of $43.44. The current ratio is 58.5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. I know that the Dividend yield tests do not show this, but the company cannot afford the dividends that they are paying. The P/S Ratio says that the stock price is expensive. The P/B Ratio test and the P/CF Ratio test shows the stock as expensive. The P/E Ratio shows the stock price as cheap, but EPS is expected to go up by 158% to $1.99. Although this is reasonable given the EPS made year to date, the EPS on this company tends to be quite volatile.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that the stock price is on the expensive side. Although a lot of utilities have debt, I think that some of the debt ratios need to be improved. I also do not like the fact that they cannot afford the current dividend when looking the EPS. In fact, they have never been able to afford the dividends when looking at the EPS. On the other hand, shareholders have done well with this stock and the company does not seem likely currently to cut or stop increasing dividends.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (5) and Hold (7). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $44.85. This implies a total return of 8.29% with 3.25% from capital gains and 5.04% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase thinks this stock is a buy. Sneha Nahata on Motley Fool says it trades well below its peer group average, making it a solid buy, even at current levels. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list 4 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street says a large portion of the total return on this stock is from dividends. A writer on Simply Wall Street does not like the combination of a low ROE and high debt. Griffin Milks on YouTube talks about this stock and his review starts at the 4:20 mark.

Capital Power Corp is a North American power producer whose principal activities are developing, acquiring, and operating power plants. Through its subsidiary, Capital Power owns and operates a portfolio of natural gas, coal, wind, solar, and solid fuel energy generating facilities. These are located throughout Western and Central Canada and the U.S. Its web site is here Capital Power Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be High Liner Foods (TSX-HLF, OTC-HLNFF) ... learn more on Monday, August 30, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

ATCO Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. The stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. Some DPRs need improving. Dividend increases are going lower. The company is valuing its hard assets at more than twice the market cap for this stock. The company has a lot of debt. See my spreadsheet on ATCO Ltd.

I do not own this stock of ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF). I started to look at this stock in 2009 because it was a dividend paying stock that was on everyone’s list. At that time this stock was on the Dividend Achievers list, the Dividend Aristocrats list and also was on Mike Higgs’ list. ATCO (TSX-ACO-X) owns 52.3% Canadian Utilities (TSX-CU), so you would not buy both these stocks.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company peaked in 2014 as far as Revenue and EPS goes, but dividends continued to be raised. This has given rise to higher and higher Dividend Payout Ratios. In the near future, analysts think that EPS will rise and DPR will be better and lower. Analysts thought that last year (2019) there would be a recovery in Revenue and EPS in 2020, but lower Revenue in 2020 lead to a lower EPS.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.19%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 3.63%, 2.55% and 2.14%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 12% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2021 and it was for 3%. The last 3 increases were in the low range (under 8%).

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving an analysts think this will happen. The DPR for EPS for 2020 was 79% with 5 year coverage at 51%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 11% with 5 year coverage at 9%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is 22% with 5 year coverage at 182%. Site vary widely on the value of FCF.

Debt Ratios are showing debt to be rather high. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 2.25. Any value of 1.00 is bad as at the value the Long Term Debt equals the Market Cap. This company has a lot of debt. According to the company, their Long Term Debt/Assets (Hard Assets) is good at 0.51. Assets/Current Liabilities Ratio is good at 20.67 which is good. The Debt to Cash Flow (Years) is 5.11 years, but this debt ratio is a bit too high as I would prefer it to be 3 to 4 years.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is good at 1.90. The Debt Ratio is also good at 1.55. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.83 and 1.83 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	11.95%	4.47%	0.44%	4.03%
2010	10	12.63%	5.39%	2.12%	3.27%
2005	15	10.68%	7.18%	4.12%	3.06%
2000	20	10.65%	9.04%	5.90%	3.15%
1995	25	12.58%	12.35%	8.55%	3.80%
1990	30	11.88%	12.09%	8.68%	3.40%
1988	32	11.73%	13.44%	9.66%	3.78%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.29, 14.12 and 16.69. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.82, 13.81 and 15.44. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.94, 10.49 and 12.05. The current P/E Ratio 14.40 based on a stock price of $42.77 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $2.97. This ratio is between the median and high 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $48.59. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.78, 0.96 and 1.10. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.88 based on a stock price of $42.77. The current ratio is between the low and median 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.48. The current P/B Ratio is 1.21 based on a stock price of $42.77, Book Value of $4,039M, and Book Value per Share of $35.33. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 2.76. The current P/CF Ratio is 2.62 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $16.30, Cash Flow of $1,864M and a stock price of $42.77. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.14%. The current dividend yield is 4.19% based on dividends of $1.79 and a stock price of $42.77. The current yield is 96% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.55%. The current dividend yield is 4.19% based on dividends of $1.79 and a stock price of $42.77. The current yield is 65% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.17. The current P/S Ratio is 1.15 based on Revenue estimate fore 2021 of $4,469M, Revenue per Share of $37.29 and a stock price of $42.77. The current ratio is 2% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. The dividend yield tests show the stock price as cheap, but the P/S Ratio test does not confirm this and shows the stock price as reasonable and below the median. Most of the rest of the testing shows that the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price would seem to be relatively reasonable and below the median. I have Canadian Utilities, so I would not buy this stock as ATCO owns a significant portion of the Canadian Utilities stock. I have some concerns on this stock. The first is the high DPR for EPS. The second concern is that the company’s debt is more than twice as high as the company’s market cap. The problem seems to be that the market is not valuing the company’s hard assets at the same level as the company is. You have to wonder about this.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (2), Hold (3) and Sell (1). You very seldom ever see a sell recommendation. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 stock price consensus is $46.88. This implies a total return of $13.80% with 9.61% from capital gains and 4.19% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase like this company and think it is a buy. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool talks about this company and Suncor building a world-scale clean hydrogen facility. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 an lists 3 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street says now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the company’s growing dividend and conservative payout ratios are a good combination.

Atco Ltd is a Canadian holding company that offers gas, electric, and infrastructure solutions. It generates maximum revenue from the Utilities segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from Canada. Its web site is here ATCO Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Exchange Income Corp (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Capital Power Corp (TSX-CPX, OTC-CPRHF) ... learn more on Friday, August 27, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Foreign Investing.... learn more on Thursday, August 26, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Exchange Income Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price seems to be currently expensive. The DPR for EPS needs improving. Debt Ratios could be improved. Dividend yield is good at 5.24%. See my spreadsheet on Exchange Income Corp .

I do not own this stock of Exchange Income Corp (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF). One of my blogger readers suggested this stock as one to review. There was an interesting article about this stock in the G&M in May 2013. This article suggested that the company had a hefty yield with an acquisition tailwind. This article is now behind a paywall.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that lower income was due to lower revenue in their aerospace and Aviation section. They did have an impairment loss but that made little difference. However, EPS has been volatile since this company went public in 2004.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% - 6% ranges) at 5.24%. The 5 year median dividend yield is also good at 6.16%. The 10 and historical median dividend yields are high (7% and higher) at 7.10% and 7.43%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) at 4.84% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2019 and it was an 4% increase. Analyst expect the dividends will again be increased in 2022.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving and analysts expect this to happen. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 292% with 5 year coverage at 109%. Analysts do not expect this DPR to be lower than 100% until 2022. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 36.5% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 64% with 5 year coverage at 62%. For FCF, Morningstar agrees with the company, but Market Screener has FCF values higher.

Debt Ratios could be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.61. Some analysts like this below 0.50 and some say up to 1.00 is fine. The Liquidity Ratio is good at 2.10. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.43, but it has always been low. I prefer it to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 3.34 and 2.34. I prefer these at less than 3.00 and less than 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	4.84%	11.97%	5.15%	6.83%
2010	10	3.87%	15.56%	7.64%	7.92%
2005	15	5.37%	18.79%	8.69%	10.11%
2003	17	9.42%	34.79%	14.53%	20.26%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.60, 15.07 and 18.54. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.57, 16.76 and 21.13. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.04, 15.17 and 18.41. The current P/E Ratio is 23.00 based on a stock price of $43.47 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $1.89. The current ratio is above the high 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $28.44. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.87, 1.18 and 1.43. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.53 based on a stock price of $43.47. The current ratio is above the high 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 2.29 based on a stock price of $43.47, Book Value of $751M and Book Value per Share of $19.02. The current ratio is 31% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.91. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.48 based on a stock price of $43.47, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $6.71, and Cash Flow of $254M. The current ratio is 10% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.43%. The current dividend yield is 5.24% based on dividends of $2.28 and a stock price of $43.47. The current dividend yield is 29% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 7.10%. The current dividend yield is 5.24% based on dividends of $2.28 and a stock price of $43.47. The current dividend yield is 26% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.97. The current P/S Ratio is 1.23 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $1336M, Revenue per Share of $35.27 and a stock price of $43.47. The current ratio is 27% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

To bring the current P/S Ratio testing to show a reasonable price, but still above the median (at 11% over the median) the stock price would have to be at least $38.00. This is a 12.6% decline in the stock price. To bring the current P/S Ratio to show a value below the 10 year median ratio, the stock price would have to be at least to 34.00. This is a 22% decline in stock price.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is seems to be expensive. The dividend yield tests show this as does the P/S Ratio test. The current price does not pass with the 10 year median yield test, so it does not matter that the company used to be an income trust. Most of the test results in the stock price being relatively expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? At the present time, I think that the stock price is on the expensive side. It is a good company and they have done well for their shareholders over time. I do think that they need to get the DPR for EPS to a better number but a lot of old income trust companies are having a hard time doing this. It is into aviation, so earnings will probably for volatile, and this makes this stock on the risky side.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (5), and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $49.40. This implies a total return of 18.89% with 13.64% from capital gains and 5.24% from dividends.

The most recent analysts’ recommendations on this company on Stock Chase are buys. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool says this is a good stock to buy in a economic recovery. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list 3 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the dividend not being well covered by earnings. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about the low coverage of EBITDA to interest expense.

Exchange Income Corp is a diversified acquisition-oriented corporation focused on opportunities in two sectors, aerospace, aviation services and equipment, and manufacturing. Its web site is here Exchange Income Corp .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ATCO Ltd (TSX-ACO.X, OTC-ACLLF) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 25, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Quality of a Sell Decision.... learn more on Tuesday, August 24, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price maybe on the expensive side, but maybe not too expensive to buy. The Dividend Payout Ratios are good and low and they have done a lot of good increases to the dividend. There are some discrepancies in how well this company has done in CDN$ and US$, but it seems mostly to be because of the exchange rates. See my spreadsheet on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

I do not own this stock of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF). In 2004 I bought this stock as it had a good reputation and my spreadsheet showed I should do well with it. I bought more of this stock in 2006 as it had a good past record and had started to pay a dividend. By the year end I bought more as TD Bank said it was a good time to buy this stock. I sold the stock in my trading account in 2007 as I was raising mortgage money and this stock had gone down so it was cheap, tax wise, to sell. In 2013, I sold the stock in my Pension account as it had the lowest dividend yield and I had to raise money in this account because of yearly withdrawals.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that revenue has declined the last two years, but analysts expect that Revenue will go higher in 2022. However, analysts do expect a drop in EPS in 2022. So far EPS has held up well for the company. The financial year end is April 30, each year.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 0.68%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 0.63%, 0.60% and 0.62%. The dividend yield has seldom been above 1%. The dividend growth is good (15% and over) at 21% per year for the last 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2020 and it was for 25%.

This stock has a very low dividend yield, so it might be of interest to look at what sort of yield is now being made on investments made at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years ago. The yield is shown in the table below. For example, if this stock was bought 15 years ago, the shareholder would have a current yield on the original investment of 8.33%. Also, I like to look at what percentage of the original cost that would have been paid by dividends if the stock was purchased 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years ago. See the chart below. For example, if this stock was purchased 15 years ago, a shareholder would have covered 46.39% of the cost of the shares.

Years	Yield	Cost Cov
5	1.16%	4.36%
10	6.17%	31.80%
15	8.33%	46.39%
20	35.20%	199.43%
25	233.27%	1321.56%

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are low and good. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 10.5% with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for CFPS for 2021 is 6.5% with 5 year coverage at 6.3%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 is 9.4% with 5 year coverage at 9%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 0.14 and is very good. The Liquidity is low at 1.20, but if you add in cash flow after dividends, the ratio is much better at 1.84. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.75. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.33 and 1.33.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2020 in CDN$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	20.79%	7.96%	7.33%	0.63%
2010	10	26.51%	26.39%	25.40%	0.99%
2005	15	14.75%	18.03%	17.42%	0.61%
2000	20		24.78%	24.04%	0.74%
1995	25		27.27%	26.57%	0.70%

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2020 in US$. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	21.56%	9.86%	9.21%	0.65%
2010	10	23.35%	23.29%	22.38%	0.91%
2005	15	14.05%	17.17%	16.55%	0.62%
2000	20		24.02%	23.25%	0.78%
1995	25		26.09%	25.38%	0.72%
1992	27		29.85%	28.99%	0.86%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.11, 15.12 and 17.73. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.29, 15.89 and 18.94. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.49, 16.06, and 19.97. The current P/E Ratio is 18.93 based on a stock price of $52.11 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $2.75 ($2.20 US$). The current ratio is between the median and high 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. These are fairly consistent ratios and gives confidence in the stock price testing.

I get a Graham Price of $29.30. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.17, 1.48 and 1.76. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.78 based on a stock price of $52.11. The current ratio is above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, the ratio is just above the high 10 year ratio so it is just inside the expensive range.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.27. The current P/B Ratio is 3.60 based on a Book Value of $12,181M, Book Value per Share of $11.28 and a stock price of $40.57. The current P/B Ratio is 10% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This stock price testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.26. The current P/CF Ratio is 11.62 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $3.49, Cash Flow of $3,364M and a stock price of $40.57. The current ratio is 26% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This stock price testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.62%. The current dividend yield is 0.67% based on a stock price of $52.11 and Dividends of $0.35. The current dividend yield is 8% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This stock price testing is in CDN$. Dividends are paid in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 0.60%. The current dividend yield is 0.67% based on a stock price of $52.11 and Dividends of $0.35. The current dividend yield is 11.5% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This stock price testing is in CDN$.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.54. The current P/S Ratio is 0.79 based on a stock price of $40.57, Revenue estimate for 2022 of $55,561M and Revenue per Share of $51.55. The current ratio is 45% above the 10 yar median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. This stock price testing is in US$. You will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side. The dividend yield tests say that the stock price is reasonable and below the median, but the P/S Ratio test does not confirm this and instead says it is expensive. The last dividend increase was good at 25% but was in 2020. There has been no dividend increases in 2021 and it is August. Dividend increases show how confident managements is in the future and so is an important indicator.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably on the expensive side, but may not be too expensive to buy. I think that this is a great company and it certainly seems to have a bright future.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (8) and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $54.50 ($43.55 US$). This implies a total return in CDN$ of 5.26% with 4.58% from capital gains and 0.67% from dividends.

The recent August 2021 entries on Stock Chase talk about this stock as a top pick. Chris MacDonald on Motley Fool says it is one of the best value picks on the TSX right now. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and list one risk. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes that the company is growing its EPS and has a large insider ownership. Scott on YouTube talks about this stock. Alex Court on YouTube channel called Financial Future Guide also reviews this stock.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc operates a network of convenience stores across North America, Ireland, Scandinavia, Poland, the Baltics, and Russia. In addition, the company operates more stores under the Circle K banner in other countries such as China, Egypt, and Malaysia. Revenue from external customers fall mainly into three categories: merchandise and services, road transportation fuel, and other. Its web site is here Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX-CHE.UN, OTC-CGIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exchange Income Corp (TSX-EIF, OTC-EIFZF) ... learn more on Monday, August 23, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Materials. The stock price would seem to be cheap. However, I think it is risky as it is cheap for good reasons. Analysts do not see another cut in dividends in the near future, but you have to wonder. I would like to see improvements in the Dividend Payout Ratios and the Debt Ratios. See my spreadsheet on Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund.

I do not own this stock of Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX-CHE.UN, OTC-CGIFF). I decided to investigate this stock after reading an article in the G&M in February 2012 about investing in small cap stocks that pay dividends. This was one of the stocks mentioned that I had never heard of before.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the company has a loss starting after Cost of Sales and Services, and Selling and Administrative Expenses. The Net Finance Costs just adds to the above loss. Both the Cost of Sales and Services, and Selling and Administrative Expenses are lower than in 2019, but the Net Finance Costs is higher by 59%. Even AFFO is lower in 2020 by 19% and the Distributable Income by 28%.

The dividend yields are high with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yields are high (7% and above) at 9.55%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also high at 8.19%, 7.36% and 8.33%. The dividend was flat from 2007 to 2019, when they started to decrease it. The dividend was cut by 50%. This company is still called an Income Fund but the 2006 legislation says that all companies will have same taxation from 2011 tax year. I am sure that the dividends were cut because they were unaffordable. The last 3 years have had income losses and there is expected to be an income loss in 2021.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) need improving. The DPR for 2021 cannot be calculated because of income losses. The 5 year coverage is also non-calculable due to income losses. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share is 36% with 5 year coverage at 40%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 is 36% with 5 year coverage at 86%. There seems to be agreement on FCF.

The company is still giving out information on Adjusted Cash Flow from Operation (AFFO) and the DPR for AFFO for 2020 is 52% with 5 year coverage at 64%. This payout ratio is fine. The company also gives out information on Distributable Cash. The DPR for Distributable Cash for 2020 is 117% with 5 year coverage at 116%. This payout ratio is too much too high.

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 1.43 and this is much too high. The ratio is down a bit at present at 1.12. It is a problem when it is at 1.00 and some analysts like it even lower at 0.50. However, it is not so much a growing debt problem as falling stock price problem. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.43 and it you add in cash flow after dividends, it is 2.08. The Debt Ratio is too low at 1.32 as I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 4.13 and 3.13 respectively. These are too high. I would prefer them to be below 3.00 and below 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 19 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	-8.97%	-10.52%	-20.06%	9.54%
2010	10	-4.59%	2.05%	-9.10%	11.15%
2005	15	-3.77%	9.95%	-3.94%	13.90%
2001	19	2.20%	12.38%	-3.62%	16.01%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative, and so cannot be used. The corresponding 10 year ratios are really low at 2.73, 2.46 and 2.18. The corresponding historical ratios are more reasonable at 10.72, 11.55 and 13.16. I could use them. The current P/E Ratio is negative because an earning loss is expected in 2021. The P/E Ratio for 2022 is 628.00 and unreasonably high because EPS is expected to be only $0.01. I cannot do not stock price testing using the P/E Ratio.

I estimate the current Graham Price to be $1.11. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.98, 1.07 and 1.16. The current P/GP Ratio is 5.64 based on a stock price of $6.28. The current P/GP Ratio is very high. It does not improve in 2022. I cannot do any stock price testing using the P/GP Ratio.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.51. The current P/B Ratio is 1.14 based on a Book Value of $571M, Book Value per Share of $5.51 and a stock price of $6.28. The current ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.06. The current P/CF Ratio is 5.32 based on a stock price of $6.28, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $1.18, and Cash Flow of $122M. The current ratio is 25% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 8.33%. The current dividend yield is 9.55% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $6.28. The current ratio is 15% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 7.36%. The current dividend yield is 9.55% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $6.28. The current ratio is 30% above the 10 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.87. The current P/S Ratio is 0.48 based on a stock price of $6.28, Revenue estimate for 2021 of $1,352M, and Revenue per Share of $13.05. The current ratio is 45% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The dividend yield tests say the stock is reasonable and cheap even with a 50% dividend cut. The P/S Ratio test says that the stock is also cheap. The other good tests of P/CF Ratio and P/B Ratio also say that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price certainly appears as cheap. Unfortunately, this stock is cheap for a reason. I find this stock too risky for my stock portfolio.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), Hold (3) and Underperform (1). The consensus recommendation would be a Buy, but there is a big range of recommendations. The 12 month stock price is $8.28. This implies a total return of 41.40% with 31.85% from capital gains and 9.55% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase thinks it is a risky buy because of problems the company has had. Christopher Liew, CFA on Motley Fool thinks this stock might appeal to dividend investors because of its high dividend rate. Personally, I would not buy a stock with a high dividend rate because generally the rate is high for a reason. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and list 3 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks that the current dividend might be unsustainable. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund provides industrial chemicals and services to customers in North America and around the world. Its geographical segments are Canada, the United States, and South America. Its web site is here Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (TSX-ATD.B, OTC-ANCUF) ... learn more on Friday, August 20, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about You Do Not Need to Be Rich to Invest.... learn more on Thursday, August 19, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Aecon Group Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price is probably reasonable at the present time. The dividend by 9% in 2021 points to management being optimistic about the future. Debt Ratios could improve. See my spreadsheet on Aecon Group Inc.

I do not own this stock of Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF). This stock has been coming up on Canada Stock Channel Weekly email. Site is Canada Stock Channel.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they have been giving decent dividend increases over the past 5 years. They increased the dividend by 9% in 2021. This points to management being optimistic about the future. Analysts think that dividend increases will continue but at a lower level. One problem is the Dividend Payout Ratios for EPS which is currently rather high at 70%, but analysts do expect that to come down.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.42%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 2.91%, 2.82% and 2.27%. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.89% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was for 9.37%. However, analysts do expect lower increases over the short term.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 are fine at 48% with 5 year coverage at 57%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 are fine at 18% with 5 year coverage also at 18%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is also fine at 28% with 5 year coverage at 53%. However, analysts expect the DPR for FCF to climb in 2021, but then moderate again in 2022.

Debt Ratios could improve. Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.51 and moving to 0.42 in 2021. Debt increased but stock price also increased. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.44. This a bit low, but add in Cash Flow after dividends and it is 1.58. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 1.36. This is also low and I prefer this at 1.50 or higher, but it has always been low for this stock. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 3.76 and 2.76 respectively. These are a bit too high and I prefer them to be less than 3.00 and less than 2.00, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 24 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	9.89%	4.53%	1.23%	3.30%
2010	10	12.07%	7.92%	4.81%	3.11%
2005	15	n/a	10.75%	7.80%	2.95%
2000	20	9.60%	11.28%	8.76%	2.52%
1996	24		8.43%	6.57%	1.86%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.26, 18.26 and 21.26. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.02, 17.71 and 20.27. The current P/E Ratio is 21.07 based on a stock price of $20.44 and EPS estimate for $0.97. This ratio is above the 10 year high P/E Ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The EPS for 2021 is expected to drop 25% but recover in 2022. The EPS for 2020, 2021 and 2022 are $1.29, $0.97, and $1.24. The P/E Ratio in 2022 is expected to be 16.48 based on a stock price of $20.44 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $1.24. This P/E Ratio is between the low and median ratios of 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $17.63. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 1.01 and 1.16. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.16 based on a stock price of $20.44. This ratio is at the 10 year median high ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The Graham Price is affected by the EPS estimates. A 25% drop in EPS for 2021 is a big drop. The Graham Price estimate for 2022 is $19.94. The 2022 P/GP Ratio for 2022 is 1.03 based on a stock price of $20.44. This ratio is between the low and median 10 year P/GP Ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.21. The current P/B Ratio is 1.43 based on a Book Value of $859M, Book Value per Share of $14.25 and a stock price of $20.44. The current ratio is 18% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.59. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.18 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $2.50, Cash Flow of $151M and a stock price of $20.44. The current ratio is 46% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I would guess analysts do not expect this company to have a good year in 2021 as the Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 is a drop of 45% in Cash Flow per Share from 2020. The P/CF Ratio for 2022 is 6.05 based on Cash Flow per Share of $3.38, Cash Flow of $204M and a stock price of $20.44. This 2022 ratio of 6.05 is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.27%. The current dividend yield is 3.42% based on a stock price of $20.44 and dividends of $0.70. The current dividend yield is 51% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.82%. The current dividend yield is 3.42% based on a stock price of $20.44 and dividends of $0.70. The current dividend yield is 22% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.27. The current P/S Ratio is 0.31 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $4,038M, Revenue per Share of $66.95 and a stock price of $20.44. The current dividend yield is 13% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield tests are saying that the stock is cheap, but this is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test which says the stock price is reasonable but above the median.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price would seem to be reasonable. I would like the debt ratios to improve, but this stock is a dividend growth stock and I like that about it.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (6) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $23.54. This implies a total return of 18.59% with 15.17% from capital gains and 3.42% from dividends.

Analysts like this stock on Stock Chase and think it will benefit from infrastructure projects. Vishesh Raisinghani on Motley Fool says this stock is one of the best value stocks to buy now. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and lists 2 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes that there is insider buying. A writer on Simply Wall Street likes that the dividend is covered by both EPS and Cash Flow. Danish Ghazi on YouTube talks about this stock (starting at 5.37 minutes into the video).

Aecon Group Inc is a Canada-based company that operates in two major segments: Construction and Concessions. Aecon generates the majority of its revenue from the Construction segment. Its web site is here Aecon Group Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BADFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX-CHE.UN, OTC-CGIFF) ... learn more on Wednesday, August 18, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Best Online Brokers.... learn more on Tuesday, August 17, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Stock price would seem to be reasonable and below the median. Analysts expect 2021 to be a poor year for this stock, but they expect it to revive starting in 2022. Debt Ratios are good. Note there has been a name and symbol change for this company. See my spreadsheet on Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd (TSX-BDGI, OTC-BADFF). I started to follow this stock after reading a couple of articles in February 2012 in the G&M that talked about the company. The first article looked at what the pros who manage small-cap funds are buying. Badger was one of 10 stocks mentioned and it looked like an interesting stock. It is a dividend paying small cap. The second article looked at why stocks might appeal to a conservative investor looking for income.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that 2020 was not a good year for this company. Revenue is down 15%, EPS was down 57%. Cash Flow per Share was up 23%, but Cash per Share excluding Working Capital was down 22%. Analysts expect the EPS to drop another 85% in 2021 before reviving in 2022. Still in 2021 they did increase their dividends by 5%.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (less than 2%) at 1.86%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also low at 1.45% and 1.66%. Since this company used to be an income trust, the dividend yields were originally quite high. They changed to a corporation in 2011 and since then the dividend yield has been low at 1.66%. The dividends were decreased in 2011 and the company again began to increase dividends in 2016. The dividend increases for the past 5 years are moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 10.5% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2021 and it was for 5%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 was 83% with 5 year coverage at 36%. The DPR for EPS is expected to be very high in 2021, before returning to a lower 40% in 2022. EPS is expected to be very low in 2021. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 17% with 5 year coverage a5 13%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 57%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.08. That is low and good. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is goo at 1.60 as is the Debt Ratio for 2020 at 2.12. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 2020 are 1.90 and 0.90 and are low and good.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	10.48%	10.93%	9.26%	1.67%
2010	10	3.50%	22.74%	19.57%	3.17%
2005	15	4.04%	16.89%	13.31%	3.58%
2000	20	7.67%	30.72%	22.41%	8.31%
1997	23		12.20%	10.29%	1.91%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 18.74, 24.16 and 59.57. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.87, 20.57 and 27.81. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.28, 11.93 and 14.53. The current P/E Ratio is 308.18 based on a stock price of $33.79 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $0.11. The current P/E Ratio is above the high 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, in the above calculation, analysts are expecting a drop in EPS of 85% from 2020. The EPS in 2020 was a drop of 57% from that of 2019. EPS estimate for 2022 is $1.59. The P/E Ratio for 2022 based on a stock price of $33.79 is 21.25. This ratio is between the median and high 10 year P/E Ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $4.53. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.29, 1.85 and 2.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 7.45 based on a stock price of $33.79. The current ratio is above the high 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, in the above calculation, the Graham Price would have been affected by the very low EPS estimate for 2021. In 2022 the Graham Price is calculated to be $17.23. Here the P/GP Ratio based on a stock price of $33.79 would be 1.96. This ratio is between the median and high 10 year median P/GP Ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.35. The current P/B Ratio is 4.07 based on a Book Value of $288M, Book Value per Share of $8.30 and a stock price of $33.79. The current ratio is 21% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.88. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.44 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $2.34, Cash Flow of $81M and a stock price of $33.79. The current ratio is 33% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

However, analysts expect a drop in Cash Flow per Share of 41% in 2021. This again is a big drop. Analysts seem to expect this year of 2021 to be a rather poor year for this company. The P/CF Ratio for 2022 is 9.06. This is based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2022 of $3.73. This P/CF Ratio of 9.06 for 2022 is 17% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield since 2011 of 1.66%. I am using the value since 2011 because this is the year that this company went from an Income Trust to a corporation. Income Trust can afford to pay much higher dividends than corporation. The 10 year median dividend yield is also 1.66%. The current dividend yield is 1.86% based on dividends of $0.63 and a stock price of $33.79. The current dividend yield is 12% above the historical median dividend yield since 2011. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.15. The current P/S Ratio is 2.12 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $554M, Revenue per Share of $15.97 and a stock price of $33.97. The current ratio is 1.8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. The dividend yield test says this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. A problem with testing is that analysts really expect this company to have a poor year in 2021 and this is reflected in the low EPS and Cash Flow per Share estimates for 2021.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price would seem to be reasonable and below the median. One of the problems with this company is that EPS and CFPS has tended to be volatile. This makes an investment in the company risky. In the past shareholders have done well. However, a lot of the past return was because of dividends. In the future, because the company is a corporation, dividends will be a much lower portion of the total return.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2), Hold (4) and Sell (1) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $38.07. This implies a total return of 14.53% with 12.67% from capital gains and 1.86% from dividends.

The last couple of recommendations on Stock Chase are Holds. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool says this mid-cap has been choppy but it is likely to dig itself out of its hole in the second half of 2021. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and list 4 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street says he is worried about the trend of Returns on Capital and that the ratio of current liabilities to total assets has risen to 21. A writer on Simply Wall Street is worried about unstable dividends because of a dividend cut in the last 10 years. However, this company used to be an income trust, but as all income trust, it was forced to become a corporation. Corporation pay lower dividends yields and most companies, when they had to change to a corporation cut dividends. It was the smart thing to do.

Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd is North America's provider of non-destructive excavating services. Its key technology is the Badger Hydrovac, which is used primarily for safe excavation around critical infrastructure and in congested underground conditions. Its web site is here Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Superior Plus Corp (TSX-SPB, OTC-SUUIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Aecon Group Inc (TSX-ARE, OTC-AEGXF) ... learn more on Monday, August 16, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.