Shaw Communications Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Telecom. The stock price seems reasonable. You can collect over 5% in dividend while waiting for the stock to become a dividend growth stock again. There is insider selling by the Shaw family. See my spreadsheet on Shaw Communications Inc.

I do not own this stock of Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR). I am following this stock because it was a stock on Investment Reporter’s list, a MPL Communications Publication.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed a lot of insider selling. It seems to be mostly by the Shaw family and they are selling some Class A as well as Class B. Insider selling is at 0.30% (where you would expect it to be around 0.01%). This stock had a peak in 2007 for its stock price and it has not done much since. Also, at this peak, dividend yield changed from a low (below 2%) to a moderate (2% to 4% ranges) value.

The dividend yields are currently good with dividend growth currently non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.41%. The 5, and 10 dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.36% and 4.35%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.20%. Dividend yields were low until 2008 and since then have been mostly moderate. The last dividend increase was in 2015. However, analysts expect the company to start to raise the dividends again in 2023.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are high for EPS and need improving. The DPR for 2020 for EPS was 90% with 5 year coverage at 84%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 32% with 5 year coverage at 37%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 75% with 5 year coverage at 133%. However, none of the sites I looked at agreed on FCF.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.36 and is a good value. The Liquidity Ratio is low at 0.89. However, if you add in Cash Flow after Dividends it is fine at 1.67. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.63. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.59 and 1.59.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.73%	3.84%	-1.26%	5.10%
2010	10	3.26%	5.43%	0.45%	4.97%
2005	15	15.30%	9.23%	3.88%	5.35%
2000	20	21.28%	4.39%	1.23%	3.16%
1995	25	18.37%	15.32%	10.45%	4.86%
1990	30	16.38%	14.14%	10.18%	3.97%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.09, 17.22 and 19.88. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.44, 15.96 and 17.69. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.58, 16.33 and 18.46. The current P/E Ratio is 16.71 based on a stock price of $21.89 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $1.31. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $18.37. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.18, 1.31 and 1.46. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.19 based on a stock price of $21.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.50. The current P/B Ratio is 1.91 based on a stock price of $21.89, Book Value of $5872M, and a Book Value per Share of $11.45. The current P/B Ratio is 23% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.57. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.24 based on a stock price of $21.89, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $3.51 and Cash Flow of $1,801M. The current ratio is 18% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.20%. The current dividend yield is 5.41% based on a stock price of $21.89 and dividends of $1.185. The current dividend yield is 351% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.35%. The current dividend yield is 5.41% based on a stock price of $21.89 and dividends of $1.185. The current dividend yield is 24% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.34. The current P/S Ratio is 2.05 based on a stock price of $21.89, Revenue estimate for 2020 of $5.485M and Revenue per Share of $10.69. The current ratio is 13% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable and below the median. The 10 year dividend yield test says cheap, but the P/S Ratio test does not support this and says the stock price is reasonable and below the median.

The historical dividend yield test is not good as the dividend yield spent half the time at a low value and then at a moderate one. Dividend yields have also been flat since 2016. These dividend yield tests work best on dividend growth stock. There are no other problems that I see with the stock price testing.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is reasonable. It was a dividend growth stock prior to 2016. However, dividends have been flat before, prior to 1997. I have 30 years of dividend data and in those 30 years dividends have increased 17 times and have never declined. Analysts expect dividends to start to go up again in 2022 or 2023. So, it might become and dividend growth stock again. It might be time to look at this stock. You can collect over 5% in dividends while waiting for the stock to again become a dividend growth one.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (4), Buy (5) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $27.46. This implies a total return of $30.86% with 25.45% from capital gains and 5.41% from dividends.

Mostly analysts feel this stock is a buy on Stock Chase. Daniel Da Costa on Motley Fool thinks you should buy this stock because its wireless business has growth potential. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and list two risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about ownership of shares of this company. Jayson MacLean on CanTech Letter talks about this stock. The Blogger Dividend Earner recently reviewed this company.

Shaw Communications is a Canadian cable company that is one of the biggest providers of Internet, television, and landline telephone services in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northern Ontario. Its web site is here Shaw Communications Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Exco Technologies Ltd (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF) ... learn more on Monday, February 1, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Enghouse Systems Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech. The current stock price would seem to be rather expensive at $61.99. Revenue, Earnings, Cash Flow, Dividends, Stock Price are all growing. Shareholders have done well with this stock. They have no long term debt. A negative is insider selling by CEO and Chairman. See my spreadsheet on Enghouse Systems Ltd.

I do not own this stock of Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF). This stock has been recommended by Keystone Financial Publishing as a good Small Cap tech stock with dividend.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I had to use Google to find things on this site. Even when Google gave me the link to the information, I had a hard time finding the information on the site. This was when I was looking for Members of the Board of Directors and Management Team.

There is a lot of insider selling Net Insider Selling 3.73 (where you would expect it to be closer to 0.01). Selling is by Chairman and Directors. (The chairman and CEO is the same person.) There were no sales by employees, but the employees I looked at had no shares but they do have stock options. This is strange.

The dividend yields are Low with dividend growth Good. The current dividend yield is Low (below 2%) at just 0.87%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also Low at 1.07%, 1.32% and 1.36%. The dividend growth is Good (15% or higher) at 17.34% increase per year over the past 5 years. The last increase was for 22.7% and it was done in 2020. With their fourth quarter financial announcement, Enghouse announces a special dividend of $1.50 per share. See the announcement on Cision.

The above combination of low yields and good growth in dividends means that the dividend yield on an original price paid 5, 10, 15 and 20 years ago would give a current dividend yield of 1.7%, 11.5%, 11.4% and 21.2%. Also, it means that the percentage of the original cost covered by dividends over the past 5, 10, 15 and 20 years would be 6.6%, 63.5%, 69% and 127.7%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 28% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 15% with 5 year coverage at 17%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 16% with 5 year coverage at 20%. (Site I looked at seemed to agree on FCF.)

Debt Ratios are good. The company has no long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.73. The Debt Ratio is 2.86. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 1.54 and 0.54.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 25 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	17.37%	11.42%	10.65%	0.77%
2010	10	21.48%	32.30%	30.66%	1.64%
2005	15	20.95%	20.81%	19.99%	0.82%
2000	20		18.09%	17.56%	0.53%
1995	25		16.61%	16.22%	0.39%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 25.42. 29.94 and 33.47. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 24.43, 28.44 and 32.09. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.27, 20.73 and 25.47. The current P/E Ratio 35.02 based on a stock price of $61.99 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $1.77. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $18.90. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 2.04, 2.70 and 2.37. The current P/GP Ratio is 3.28 based on a stock price of $61.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.46. The current P/B Ratio is 6.91 based on a stock price of $61.99, Book Value of $496M and Book Value per Share of $8.97. The current P/B Ratio is 55% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 18.02. The current P/CF Ratio is 21.98 based on a stock price of $61.99, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $2.82 and Cash Flow of $156M. The current ratio is 22% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.36%. The current dividend yield is 0.87% based on dividends of $0.54 and a stock price of $61.99. The current dividend yield is 36% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.12%. The current dividend yield is 0.87% based on dividends of $0.54 and a stock price of $61.99. The current dividend yield is 22% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 4.26. The current P/S Ratio is 6.25 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $549M, Revenue per Share of $9.92 and a stock price of $61.99. The current P/S Ratio is 47% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. Both the dividend yield tests show the stock price as expensive and it is confirmed by P/S Ratio test. There is nothing wrong with any of the tests and they all show that the stock price is expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It would currently seem that the stock price is on the expensive side. To pass the two dividend yield tests and the P/S Ratio test the stock price would have to move to around $49.00. Then the stock price would still be above the median, but it would be in a reasonable range. I generally would not buy a dividend stock with a dividend yield less than 1% and the price would need to be $54 to get a 1% dividend yield.

I look at my spreadsheet and all I see is green ink. Revenue, Earnings, Cash Flow, Dividends, Stock Price are all growing. Shareholders have done well with this stock. I think it is a good stock and especially suited for people building a portfolio.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (3) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $79.20. This implies a total return of 28.63% with 27.76% from capital gains and 0.87% from dividends.

Analysts like this stock on Stock Chase and most feel it is a buy. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks you should look at 3 stocks that did well over the past 10 years, including Enghouse. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out 5 and lists 2 risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street says he is happy with Enghouse performance but is worried about analysts thinking earnings will fall. He could be confusing US and CDN currency, because in CDN$, earnings are not expected to fall. Jayson MacLean at CanTech Letter thinks you should start with a small position in this stock and see how it goes.

Enghouse Systems Ltd is a Canada-based provider of software and services to a variety of end markets. The firm's operations are organized in two segments namely, the Interactive Management Group and the Asset Management Group. The firm has operations in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Sweden, Israel, Croatia, Denmark, Norway, India, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Australia etc. Its web site is here Enghouse Systems Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Shaw Communications Inc (TSX-SJR.B, NYSE-SJR) ... learn more on Friday, January 29, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Banks and Ratios 2.... learn more on Thursday, January 28, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Sylogist Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Tech. The stock price would seem to be reasonable. They need to get their Dividend Payout Ratios under control and analysts expect this to happen. The debt ratios are very good. See my spreadsheet on Sylogist Ltd .

I do not own this stock of Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF). I learned about this stock from the newsletter I subscribe to.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company gives almost nothing on their site. I had to collect information for my spreadsheet from other sources including financials, company leadership and board members.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.26%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 3.02%, 3.02% and 3.02%. The dividend growth over the last 5 years is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 12% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2020 and it was for was for 13.6%. There has often been more than one increase in a year.

The above combination of moderate yields and moderate (had past good) growth in dividends means that the dividend yield on an original price paid 5, 10, 15 and 20 years ago would give a current dividend yield of 5.7%, 24.5%, 27.9% and 3.9%. Also, it means that the percentage of the original cost covered by dividends over the past 5, 10, 15 and 20 years would be 23%, 160%, 192% and 26.8%. The low values for the 20 year period are because of much higher stock price in the 2000 bull market.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are too high and need improvement. The DPR for EPS for 2020 was 544% with 5 year coverage at 99%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 was 131% with 5 year coverage at 64%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 409% with 5 year coverage at 79%. Analysts expect better DPRs in 2021 with the ones for EPS at 102% and then declining to 89% in 2022. They expect the DPR for CFPS in 2021 to decline to 89% and expected the DPR for FCF in 2021 to decline to 61%.

Debt Ratios are very good. They have no long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 2.89 and the Debt Ratio for 2020 is 3.72. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 1.37 and 0.37.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 22 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	12.17%	9.91%	5.95%	3.96%
2010	10	21.12%	23.22%	17.61%	5.61%
2005	15		16.29%	13.35%	2.94%
2000	20		10.51%	8.79%	1.73%
1995	25		2.59%	1.48%	1.12%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 23.94, 29.03 and 34.13. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 23.00, 29.00 and 33.97. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.21, 14.90 and 20.48. The current P/E Ratio is 23.98 based on a stock price of $11.75 and EPS Estimate for 2021 of $0.49. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $4.91. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.95, 2.54 and 3.14. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.40 based on a stock price of $11.75. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.41. The current P/B Ratio is 5.38 based on a Book Value of $51.87M, Book Value per Share of $2.18 and a stock price of $11.75. The current P/B Ratio is 22% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 18.05. The current P/CF Ratio is 71.96 based on the last 12 month cash flow. The current ratio is 299% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable expensive.

I get an historical and 10 year median dividend yield of 3.02%. The current dividend yield is 4.26% based on dividends of $0.50 and a stock price of $11.75. The current dividend yield is 41% above the historical and 10 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. (Dividends have only been paid for 10 years.)

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.45. The current P/S Ratio is 6.54 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $42.7M, Revenue per Share of $1.80 and a stock price of $11.75. The current ratio is 1% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. But it is just above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield test says cheap, but they have increased dividend beyond what they can afford currently. However, increases in dividends does signal that management is bullish on the company’s future. The P/S Ratio tests shows a price close to the median. It is a bit worrisome that the P/B Ratio test says the stock is expensive. The problem with the P/CF Ratio test is that the cash flow was unusually low over the past 12 months.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price is probably reasonable. It is a dividend growth company and I like those. This might be a good investment if you are looking for a small cap tech. However, being a small cap tech makes this stock risky.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Buy (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $15.38. This implies a total return of 35.13% with 30.89% from capital gains and 4.26% from dividends.

Analysts on Stock Chase sort of like this stock, but they do not expect much to happen with it in the short term. Jed Lloren on Motley Fool talks about why you should invest in this stock. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 stars out of 5 and list 3 risks of this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the stock is currently selling near its Fair Market Value. Enterprising Investors on Seeking Alpha analyzed this stock in February 2020.

Sylogist Ltd is a software company that provides Enterprise Resource Planning solutions, including fund accounting, grant management, and payroll to public service organizations. Geographically, the company offers its services to the United States of America, Canada, and the United Kingdom region. The majority of the revenue comes from the United States of America. Its web site is here Sylogist Ltd .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Enghouse Systems Ltd (TSX-ENGH, OTC-EGHSF) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 27, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Banks and Ratios.... learn more on Tuesday, January 26, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Transcontinental Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. The stock price might still be reasonable and it has a nice yield of $4.32. It should provide some solid returns. I good idea to buy this stock is for diversification. See my spreadsheet on Transcontinental Inc .

I own this stock of Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF). This is a dividend growth stock. It was on a number of dividend lists. However, it fell on hard times after 2008, but currently seems to be recovering. It is was on the Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index when I bought it in 2015.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this stock has earned money for shareholders, but it is underperforming what I would like to see. I like a dividend growth stock to have a total return of at least 8% per year, but this is below that lately, with 5 and 10 year total returns at 7.93% and 7.01%. So, it does not quite make the 8% total return when judged year-end to year-end. Personally, I have had this stock since 2015 and I have made a total return of 8.40% per year with 3.72% from capital gains and 4.68% from dividends.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.32%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 3.84% and 3.97%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.40%. The dividend increases for the past 5 year was low (under 8%) at 5.96% per year. were increase. The last dividend increase was for 2.27% and was in 2020. Until the company got into trouble in 2008, the dividend yields were low and the dividend increase were good (15% and above). This is why the historical median dividend yield is low.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 was 59% with 5 year coverage at 39%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 was 16% with 5 year coverage at 18%. The DPR for FCF for 2020 is 24% with 5 year coverage at 25%. (For FCF, site disagree, but not greatly.)

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.57. I also looked at Goodwill and Intangible assets to Market Cap. For this company the Goodwill, Intangible/Market Cap Ratio is very high at 1.78 for 2020, but decreasing to 1.29 in 2021. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.51 and is fine. The Debt Ratio is 1.93 and is fine. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 at fine at 2.07 and 1.07.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 32 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	5.96%	7.93%	3.51%	4.42%
2010	10	9.84%	7.01%	2.51%	4.49%
2005	15	4.71%	3.58%	0.51%	3.07%
2000	20	11.58%	7.80%	4.50%	3.30%
1995	25	11.42%	8.51%	5.50%	3.01%
1990	30	9.90%	13.24%	9.36%	3.88%
1983	32		10.08%	7.26%	2.82%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.03, 8.74 and 10.49. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.70, 8.59 and 10.02. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.56, 12.74 and 12.50. (There were some very high P/E ratios and big negative ratios in the past.) The current P/E Ratio is 11.83 based on a stock price of $20.82 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $1.76. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $27.94. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.57, 0.75 and 0.89. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.75 based on a stock price of $20.82. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median and almost expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.35. The current P/B Ratio is 1.06 based on a stock price of $20.82, Book Value of $1733M, and a Book Value per share of $19.71. The current P/B Ratio is 22% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.63. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.98 based on a stock price of $20.82, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $4.18 and a Cash Flow of $367.5M. The current ratio is 37% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.40%. The current dividend yield is 4.32% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $20.82. The current dividend yield is 208% above the historical median dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.97%. The current dividend yield is 4.32% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $20.82. The current dividend yield is 8.8% above the historical median dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.56. The current P/S Ratio is 0.72 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $2,532, Revenue per Share of $28.80 and a stock price of $20.82. The current ratio is 29% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be reasonable. The stock price testing is all over the place. The historical median dividend yield is low because dividend yields were low prior to 2008. So, I think the 10 year test is the better one. Unfortunately, the dividend yield test is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The stock price has risen a lot since the year-end of October 2020 (by 32%). The P/B Ratio test, which uses no estimates says that the stock price is cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The company is probably selling at a reasonable price. This is an old company and has been reinventing itself. I am invested in it. It would be a good investment for diversification. I do not expect it to be a high flyer by any means, but I do expect to earn, in the long term a reasonable total return of 8% per year.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (4) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $24.25. This implies a total return of 20.80% with 16.47% from capital gains and 4.32% from dividends.

Analysts at Stock Chase do not care for this stock much. The site gives it 3 stars out of 5. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this is a good stock for your TFSA investment in 2021. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5 and lists one risk for 3 rewards. A writer on Simply Wall Street does not like this stock because of declining EPS. However, EPS has always been volatile for this stock. Total EPS when looking at 5 year periods, is growing. The Blogger Dividend Earner recently reviewed this stock.

Transcontinental Inc or TC Transcontinental, is a Canadian printer and flexible packaging provider that operates in three segments: packaging, printing, and other. Its web site is here Transcontinental Inc .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Sylogist Ltd (TSX-SYZ, OTC-SYZLF) ... learn more on Monday, January 25, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The stock price is probably reasonable, and it may even be cheap. Currently its Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. It is one of the big give Canadian Banks. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

I do not own this stock of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM). This was the only major Canadian Bank I was not following. I think it is about time I did.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I also showed what you would have if you invested $1,000 32 years ago in December 1988. Today, the shares would be worth $9,182.26 and you would have received $6,610.23 in dividends.

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.19%. The 5 year median dividend yield is also good at 5.06%. The 10 and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.81% and $4.42%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are a little too high. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 71% with 5 year coverage at 50%. The DPR for CFPS is 63% with 5 year coverage at 47%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow could be 4.29% with 5 year coverage at 10%, but sites do not come close to agreeing on the FCF.

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this is a bank, I am looking at Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio which for 2020 is 0.82 and is fine. The Liquidity Ratio does not matter for banks. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 1.06 and anything at 1.04 or higher is fine for banks.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	6.39%	8.99%	3.58%	5.41%
2010	10	5.28%	8.26%	3.33%	4.92%
2005	15	5.36%	6.80%	2.38%	4.43%
2000	20	7.82%	9.03%	4.34%	4.69%
1995	25	8.60%	12.70%	6.94%	5.76%
1990	30	7.53%	12.82%	7.25%	5.57%
1987	33	7.29%	11.99%	6.84%	5.14%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.79, 9.04 and 10.66. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.86, 9.98 and 10.73. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.23, 9.76 and 14.02. The current P/E Ratio is 10.83 based on a stock price of $112.61 and an EPS estimate for 2021 of $10.40. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

If you look at P/E Ratios compared to Total Returns for the 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 year periods, I find the following. For example, total return over the past 15 years is 6.80% per year, the starting P/E Ratio (the one from 15 years ago) was -166.11. (CIBC had a big Earnings loss that year). From the point of view of this chart, a P/E Ratio of 10.83. would be a little high, but at least from that level return was over 8%.

Year	Tot Return	Start P/E
5	8.99%	10.28
10	8.26%	13.34
15	6.80%	-166.11
20	9.03%	9.61
25	12.70%	9.72
30	12.82%	6.59

I get a Graham Price of $139.92. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 0.87 and 0.95. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.80 based on a stock price of $112.61. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.77. The current P/B Ratio is 1.35 based on a stock price of $112.61, Book Value of $37,579 and Book Value per Share of $83.67. The current ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.42%. The current dividend yield is 5.19% based on a stock price of $112.61 and dividends of $5.84. The current yield is 17% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.81%. The current dividend yield is 5.19% based on a stock price of $112.61 and dividends of $5.84. The current yield is 8% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.52. The current P/S Ratio is 2.66 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $19,020M, Revenue per Share of $42.35 and a stock price of $112.61. The current ratio is 5% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield test shows cheap and reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio test shows that the stock is reasonable but above the median. The P/B Ratio test is good and it shows the stock price as cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that the stock price is currently reasonable. This is a dividend growth stock and therefore a kind I like. I think that Canadian Investor should have at least one, if not two Canadian banks in their portfolios.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (6), Hold (6), and Underperform (1). They are all over the place in recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $120.11. This implies a total return of 11.85% with 6.66% from capital gains and 5.19% from dividends.

The latest comment from an analyst is that this stock is a Top Pick on Stock Chase. Stock Chase also gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Demetris Afxentiou on Motley Fool names four diversified income stocks to buy and this stock is included in his list. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this bank 4 stars out of 5 and list no risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns shares in this company. Sean Solo on YouTube talks about 5 Canadian Banks.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is Canada's fifth- largest bank, operating three business segments: retail and business banking, wealth management, and capital markets. It serves approximately 11 million personal banking and business customers, primarily in Canada. Its web site is here Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

The last stock I wrote about was about was National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Transcontinental Inc (TSX-TCL.A, OTC-TCLAF) ... learn more on Friday, January 22, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Financial to Buy.... learn more on Thursday, January 21, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

National Bank of Canada

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. Stock price is in the reasonable range but at the top end. This is a smaller bank than the big five, but Shareholders have done well in total return on their investments in this stock. It has recovered by the March 2000 lows. See my spreadsheet on National Bank of Canada.

I do not own this stock of National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF). I thought I should follow one of the smaller Canadian Banks. This seems like a good choice.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have shown the return you would have received if you bought $1000 of shares in December 1988. You would have been able to buy 173.91 shares at $5.75. In December 2020, you have received to date $5,708.92 in dividend and the share would be worth $12,459.63.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.88%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 4.23%, 4.12% and 3.96%. The dividends have been increasing at a low level (below 8%) at 7.22% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2020 and the increase was for 4.41%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 was 49% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 was 39% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 could be 7% with 5 year coverage at 11%, but sites showing FCF do not agree at all.

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this is a bank, I am looking at Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio which for 2020 is 0.73. The Liquidity Ratio for banks is not important. The Debt Ratio for this bank is 1.05 and for banks anything at 1.04 or higher is fine, but it is lower currently than the other banks.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 34 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	7.22%	14.68%	12.19%	2.50%
2010	10	7.68%	10.83%	7.66%	3.17%
2005	15	9.57%	8.97%	5.94%	3.04%
2000	20	10.63%	12.62%	8.78%	3.83%
1995	25	10.80%	15.49%	10.76%	4.73%
1990	30	6.91%	14.91%	10.10%	4.82%
1986	34	7.19%	10.04%	7.00%	3.04%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 8.67, 9.93 and 11.64. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.85, 10.23 and 11.76. The corresponding historical ratios are 8.53, 9.89 and 11.76. The current P/E Ratio is 11.13 based on a stock price of $73.22 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $6.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

If you look at P/E Ratios compared to Total Returns for the 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 year periods, I find the following. For example, total return over the past 15 years is 8.97% per year, the starting P/E Ratio (the one from 15 years ago) was 12.31. From the point of view of this chart, a P/E Ratio of 11.13 would still be fine.

Year	Tot Return	Start P/E
5	14.68%	8.94
10	10.83%	11.54
15	8.97%	12.31
20	12.62%	10.56
25	15.49%	8.98
30	14.91%	7.34

I get a Graham Price of $75.90. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.88 and 1.02. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.96 based on a stock price of $73.22. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.76. The current P/B Ratio is 1.88 based on a stock price of $73.22, Book Value of $13,075 and a Book Value Per Share of $38.91. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.09. The current P/CF Ratio is 1.23 based on last 12 month Cash Flow of $19,981, Cash Flow per Share of $59.47 and a stock price of $73.22. The current ratio is 60% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, Cash Flow is quite volatile and this makes this a questionable check for the stock price for this stock. For example, the last 10 years of Cash Flow are -$5,477, $5,993, $2,177, $690, $4,147, $6,375, $5,438, $1,521, $5,864, $8,280, and $19,981.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.96%. The current dividend yield is 3.88% based on a stock price of $73.22 and dividends of $2.84. The current dividend yield is 2% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.12%. The current dividend yield is 3.88% based on a stock price of $73.22 and dividends of $2.84. The current dividend yield is 6% below the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.78. The current P/S Ratio is 2.99 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $8,240M, Revenue per Share of $24.52 and a stock price of $73.22. The current ratio is 7% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median. Both the dividend yield tests say this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The P/E Ratio, P/GP Ratio and P/B Ratio tests are all good tests and they show the same thing.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is in the reasonable range, but at the high end. This is a dividend growth stock which is the kind I like. However, since this is a smaller bank than the big 5, it is probably riskier.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3) and Hold (9). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $77.88. This implies a total return of 10.24% with 6.36% from capital gains and 3.88% from dividends.

The three latest analyst’s signals are Buy, Strong Buy and Top Picks for this bank on Stock Chase. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this bank is a current buy. The executive summary on Simply Wall Street give this bank 4 stars out of 5 and list no risk items. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that this stock is a promising Dividend Stock. Norman Levine discusses National Bank versus Laurentian Bank on BNN. The blogger Dividend Earner has done a recent review on this stock.

National Bank of Canada is the sixth-largest Canadian bank. The bank offers integrated financial services, primarily in the province of Quebec as well as the city of Toronto. Operational segments include personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and a financial markets group. Its web site is here National Bank of Canada.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX-CM, NYSE-CM) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 20, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Not All Investments Need to be Winners.... learn more on Tuesday, January 19, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Bank of Nova Scotia

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. Stock price seems to be cheap to reasonable. This is a dividend growth stock. See my spreadsheet on Bank of Nova Scotia.

I do not own this stock of Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS). This is one of the big banks of Canada. All our big banks are dividend growth companies. I do not own this bank but my son owns shares.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that like other banks, I looked at what you would have you invested in this bank over a period of time. The first one is a 35 year investment for $1,000. In December 2020 you would have received $13, 004.83 in Dividends and the value of the shares would be $19,312.16. If you made an $1,000 investment 25 years ago, by December 2020, you would have received $5.903.52 in dividends and your shares would be worth $9,246.72.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.13%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.63%, 4.22% and $4.15%. The dividend growth over the past 5 years is low (below 8%) at 5.77% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2019 and it was for 3.4%. This was the second increase for 2019. The first increase was for 2.4%. There were no increases in 2020, total dividends increased by 3.15% from 2019 because the last increase was done late in the year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 was 68% with 5 year coverage at 52%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 was 8% with 5 year coverage at 24%. The sites l looked at for Free Cash Flow do not agree. WSJ says the DPR or FCF for 2020 was 22% with 5 year coverage 37%.

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this is a bank, I am looking at the Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio which is fine at 0.93. The Liquidity Ratio does not matter for banks. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 1.07. For banks, any ratio at 1.04 or higher is fine.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	5.77%	9.55%	4.21%	5.34%
2010	10	6.27%	6.32%	1.88%	4.44%
2005	15	6.92%	6.96%	2.70%	4.26%
2000	20	10.37%	10.88%	5.96%	4.92%
1995	25	10.27%	15.53%	9.31%	6.22%
1990	30	9.30%	18.49%	10.89%	7.59%
1985	35	9.11%	14.10%	8.83%	5.27%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.02, 10.77 and 12.52. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.07, 11.30 and 12.51. The corresponding historical year ratios are 10.29, 11.29 and 13.20. The current P/E Ratio is 11.64 based on a stock price of $70.20 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $6.03. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

If you look at P/E Ratios compared to Total Returns for the 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 year periods, I find the following. For example, total return over the past 15 years is 6.96% per year, the starting P/E Ratio (the one from 15 years ago) was 16.65. From this chart’s point of view, a P/E Ratio of 11.64 would be fine.

Year	Tot Return	Start P/E
5	9.55%	9.87
10	6.32%	14.60
15	6.96%	16.65
20	10.88%	9.32
25	15.53%	11.54
30	18.49%	11.54

I get a Graham Price of 83.88. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.80, 0.88 and 0.98. The current P/GP Ratio 0.84 based on a stock price of $70.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.70. The current P/B Ratio is 1.35 based on a stock price of $70.20, a Book Value of $62819M, and Book Value per Share of $31.85. The current P/B Ratio is 20% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.48. The current P/CF Ratio is 8.78 based on a stock price of $70.20, Cash Flow per Share estimate of $8.00, and Cash Flow of $9,692M. The current ratio is 35% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, the problem with cash flow and banks is that cash flow is all over the place, so in this case I do not place much reliance on it.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.15%. The current dividend yield is 5.13% based on a stock price of $70.20 and dividends of $3.60. The current dividend yield is 24% above the historical dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.22%. The current dividend yield is 5.13% based on a stock price of $70.20 and dividends of $3.60. The current dividend yield is 22% above the 10 year dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.22. The current P/S Ratio is 2.81 based on Revenue estimate of $30,269 for 2021, Revenue per Share of $24.99 and a stock price of $70.20. The current ratio is 13% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is reasonable and below the median

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. Both the dividend yield tests show this stock price as relatively cheap, but it is not confirmed by the P/S Ratio test which is showing the price as reasonable. The other goods tests are the P/GP Ratio and P/B Ratio tests and these also point to cheap to reasonable.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think the stock price is cheap to reasonable. It is a good dividend growth Canadian bank, so I think it is a good company to buy for its dividend. I think all Canadian dividend investors should have a couple of Canadian Banks in their portfolios.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (6), Hold (4) and Underperform (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price is $69.25. This implies a total return of 3.77% with a capital loss of 1.35% and dividends of 5.13%.

Most recent analysts’ comments for this bank on Stock Chase are buy or top pick. Nicholas Dobroruka on Motley Fool says Canadian Value stocks are on sale. His picks are BNS and Sun Life. The Executive Summary for Simply Wall Street lists 3 rewards and no risks for this bank. It is given 4 stars out of 5. A writer on Simply Wall Street is unenthusiastic about BNS as a dividend stock because of low earnings growth. Financial Nirvana Mama reviews this bank on YouTube.

Bank of Nova Scotia is a global financial services provider. The bank has five business segments: Canadian banking, international banking, global wealth management, global banking, and markets, and other. The bank's international operations span numerous countries and are more concentrated in Central and South America. Its web site is here Bank of Nova Scotia.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be National Bank of Canada (TSX-NA, OTC-NTIOF) ... learn more on Monday, January 18, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Toronto Dominion Bank

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Bank. The stock price seems to be reasonable. This is a dividend growth stock and a Canadian Bank and I like both categories. Dividend yields are moderate as is the dividend growth and this is a great combination for dividends. See my spreadsheet on Toronto Dominion Bank.

I own this stock of Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD). I bought shares in this bank at a good time in 2000 and 2009. I sold some in 2017 because they comprised more than 10% of my portfolio.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that my total return was 12.98% per year with 8.89% from capital gains and 4.09% from dividends.

I also looked at two long term periods. If you bought shares with $1,000.40 in 1976 (42 years ago) you would have gotten 1220 shares with a price of $0.82. Today, those shares would be worth $87,742.40 and you would have collected $41,507.27 in dividends. If you bought shares 32 years ago, cost would be $4.45 per share and you would have gotten 224.72 shares. Today those shares would be worth $16,161.86 and you would have collected dividends worth $7,433.13. (Note that the chart below and Total Return shows a low about for the past 30 years.)

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend is moderate (2% to 4% range) at 4.26%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also moderate at 3.93%, 3.73% and 3.50%. the dividends have been increased moderately (8% to 14% ranges) at 9.23% per year over the past 5 years. The last increase was in 2020 and it was for 6.8%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 48% with 5 year coverage at 45%. The DPR for CFPS is 49% with 5 year coverage at 32%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is anyone’s guess. Morningstar says that the FCF is $230,079M and WSJ says a negative $28,453M.

Debt Ratios are fine. Because this is a bank, you look for covering assets, so Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio is fine at 0.71. The Liquidity Ratio really does not matter for banks. The Debt Ratio is 1.06 and anything at 1.04 or above is fine for banks.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 45 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	9.23%	10.08%	5.80%	4.28%
2010	10	9.81%	10.92%	6.84%	4.09%
2005	15	9.57%	9.50%	5.87%	3.63%
2000	20	10.03%	9.52%	6.17%	3.36%
1995	25	11.18%	15.44%	10.45%	4.99%
1990	30	9.77%	14.46%	9.97%	4.49%
1985	35	10.36%	13.27%	9.31%	3.96%
1980	40	10.49%	15.17%	10.33%	4.84%
1975	45	10.93%	15.34%	10.51%	4.82%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 10.50, 11.76 and 13.03. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.93, 12.17 and 13.30. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.42, 11.40 and 13.84. The current P/E Ratio is 12.87 based on a stock price $74.11 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $5.76. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $80.34. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.6, 0.94 ad 1.03. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92 based on a stock price of $74.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.61. The current P/B Ratio is 1.49 based on a Book Value of $95,499M, Book Value per Share of $49.80 and a stock price of $74.11. The current P/B Ratio is 8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 3.16. The current P/CF Ratio is 0.46 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $231,789M, Cash Flow per Share of $127.63 and a stock price of $74.11. The current ratio is 85% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. The problem with this current Cash Flow is that it is way out of line with past normal amounts for Cash Flow. I do not find P/CF Ratio helpful in analyzing bank stocks.

We might be better off using Cash Flow less Working Capital in this instance. The 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share less Working Capital is 9.18. The current P/CF Ratio (less WC) is 9.28. The current ratio is 1.09% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median, or around the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.50%. The current dividend yield is 4.26% based on a stock price of $74.11 and dividend of 3.16%. The current dividend is 22% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.73%. The current dividend yield is 4.26% based on a stock price of $74.11 and dividend of 3.16%. The current dividend is 14% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.16. The current P/S Ratio is 3.43 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $39,261M, Revenue per Share of $21.62, and a stock price of $74.11. The current ratio is 9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The stock price is cheap or reasonable and below the median according to dividend yield testing, but reasonable and above the median in P/S Ratio testing. So, they both agree it is reasonable. Analysts are expecting a 10% decline in Revenue and this is probably due to problems Covid. Most testing is showing the stock price as reasonable.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do think the stock price is reasonable. This is a dividend growth stock, which is the sort I like. I also like Canadian Banks. I like this one and I own it.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (2), Hold (8), and Underperform (3). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus would be $74.43. This implies a total return of 4.70% with 0.43% from capital gains and 4.26% from dividends based on a stock price of $74.11. Analysts overall do not seem to expect much movement in price.

Analyst on Stock Chase like this bank along with Royal. Andrew Button on Motley Fool talks about 2020 earnings spike which was due to TD selling TD Ameritrade to Charles Schwab. He says the banks has strong earnings and a 4.26% yield so it is a great stock. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. It says a risk is an unstable dividend track record and this is not true. Kevin Orland on Bloomberg talks about the trial where trustees for Stanford investors is trying to recover US $4.5B from the bank. The Blogger Dividend Earner did a recent review of this stock. On YouTube there is analysis of this bank at Ask Pramod Kumar. Geoff Zochodne on the Financial Post talks about the Schwab-TD Ameritrade deal.

Toronto-Dominion is one of Canada's two largest banks and operates three business segments: Canadian retail banking, U.S. retail banking, and wholesale banking. The bank's U.S. operations span from Maine to Florida, with a strong presence in the Northeast. It also has a 42% ownership stake in TD Ameritrade, a discount brokerage. Its web site is here Toronto Dominion Bank.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Calian Group Ltd) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX-BNS, NYSE-BNS) ... learn more on Friday, January 15, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Telus, Gordon Pape.... learn more on Thursday, January 14, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Calian Group Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Tech. Stock price seems relatively expensive currently. They have no long term debt and debt ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on Calian Group Ltd.

I own this stock of Calian Group Ltd (TSX-CGY, OTC-CLNFF). This is an interesting company with a dividend. This stock came up on a Globe Investor site. The Globe Investor Number Cruncher is an investment column about screening for stocks and funds. They did one on companies with little to no debt. I also noted that the Financial Blogger has this stock on his Top Ten Canadian Dividend Stocks list.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the stock price went up a lot this year. I have done well in this stock. I have had this stock for almost 10 years and my total return to the end of last year was 20.86% per year with 16.98% per year from capital gains and 3.88% per year from dividends. The current dividend yield is 1.73%, but I am getting on my original investment a yield of 6.19%. One problem is that they have not raised the dividend since 2013.

The dividend yields are low with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.73%. The 5 year and historical median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% range) at 3.65% and 4.28%. The 10 year dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) at 5.31%. They have not raised the dividend since 2013. They have paid dividends for 17 years and have raised them in 10 of these years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 50% with 5 year coverage at 52%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 29% with 5 year coverage at 34%. The DPR for FCF for 2020 is 116% with 5 year coverage at 73%. Not all sites agree on FCF.

Debt Ratios are good. There is no current long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.85. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 2.53. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 1.65 and 0.65

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.00%	36.91%	32.57%	4.34%
2010	10	3.55%	17.33%	13.60%	3.73%
2005	15	8.71%	17.32%	12.81%	4.51%
2000	20	11.73%	20.50%	15.46%	5.04%
1995	25		12.78%	10.46%	2.32%
1993	27		10.57%	8.74%	1.82%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.66, 13.02 and 14.38. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.06, 12.56 and 14.12. The corresponding historical ratios are 9.54, 11.29 and 12.69. The current P/E Ratio is 31.21 based on a stock price of $64.60 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $2.07. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

It is interesting that when I have done the high, median, and low for years ending in December, the P/E Ratios were consistently higher than above when the year used ended in September each year. The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.29, 14.36 and 16.27 (with a December year-end). The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.34, 13.82 and 15.30 (with a December year-end). The corresponding historical ratios are 10.03, 11.57 and 17.06 (with a December year-end). The financial year for this company ends in September each year.

Even when I look at 2022 when the EPS is expected to rise, rather than fall as it is expected to do in 2021, the P/E Ratio is still relatively high at 23.66 based on a stock price of $64.60 and EPS Estimate for 2022 of $2.73.

I get a Graham Price of $30.92. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.98, 1.07 and 1.18. The current P/GP Ratio is 2.09 based on a stock price of $64.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.20. The current P/B Ratio is 3.15 based on a Book Value of $200M, Book Value per Share of $20.53 and a stock price of $64.60. The current ratio is 43% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 10.76. The current P/CF Ratio is negative so no testing can be done. I can look at the Cash Flow less Working Capital. Here the 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 8.53. The current P/CF Ratio is 16.52 based on last 12 months of Cash Flow less WC of $38M, Cash Flow per Share less WC of $3.91 and a stock price of $64.60. The current ratio is 94% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. I talk about this subject of cash flow less working capital here.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.28%. The current dividend yield is 1.73% based on a dividend of $1.12 and a stock price of $64.60. The current dividend is 62% below the historical median dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.31%. The current dividend yield is 1.73% based on a dividend of $1.12 and a stock price of $64.60. The current dividend is 67% below the historical median dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.66. The current P/S Ratio is 1.34 based on a stock price of $64.60, Revenue estimate for 2021 of $471M, and Revenue per Share of $48.26. The current P/S Ratio is 104% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively expensive. The dividend yield tests say this and is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. However, dividend yield is probably not a good test because dividends have not been raised since 2013. However, all the test says the same thing, that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I plan to stay invested in this stock because I still believe in it. I still hope it will turn back into a dividend growth stock, but shareholders are currently being rewarded as the capital gains have been good. It is probably expensive at the moment, but the whole stock market is high presently.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3) and Buy (4). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $74.29. This implies a total return of 16.73% with 15% from capital gains and 1.73% from dividends. This is a lot lower in capital gains that occurred over the past 2 years.

Analysts like this stock on Stock Chase but site gives it 3 stars out of 5. Adam Othman Motley Fool says to buy for capital growth, not dividends. The Executive Summary on Simply Wall Street gives the stock 4 stars out of 5 and list two risks. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that the stock price is growing faster than EPS. Kevin Ford, CEO of the company is interviewed on C-Suite.

Calian Group Ltd is a Canadian company offering professional services. Calian Group Ltd operates through four segments namely Advanced Technologies, Health, Learning, and Information Technology. It generates maximum revenue from the Health segment. Its web site is here Calian Group Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Rogers Sugar Inc (TSX-RSI, OTC-RSGUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Toronto Dominion Bank (TSX-TD, NYSE-TD) ... learn more on Wednesday, January 13, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Questions for ESG Investors.... learn more on Tuesday, January 12, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.