KP Tissue Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Consumer. The stock price might be relatively cheap. It has no earnings. They have no cash flow. They cannot cover their dividend payments. Dividends are flat since they have started dividends. See my spreadsheet on KP Tissue Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a very hard company to judge, although the stock price could be relatively cheap. Kruger Products L. P. (Limited Partnership) (KPLP) seems to have revenue and net income. What I do not like is that KP Tissue has no cash flow, no earnings (so far) and the dividends have been flat since they started in 2013. I am not impressed with high yields. I much rather have a low yield and dividend growth. This would not be a company I would be anxious to buy.

I do not own this stock of KP Tissue Inc (TSX-KPT, OTC-KPTSF). This was a stock suggested by a speaker at the Ellen's Investment Club. This is also a new stock for me to follow.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed KP Tissue Inc owns 14.5% of Kruger Products and that is what they were set up to do. Also, L.P. Kruger Inc owns the rest, 85.5%. Although KP Tissue Inc has not made a profit in its investment for the past 8 years, it is expected to do so in 2021. The stock is paying a dividend, but has no profit nor has it any Cash Flow.

They get money from issuing shares and from dividends from Kruger Products L.P. They pay in dividends all the money they get from Kruger Products L.P. Their investment is in units from Kruger Products L.P. The revenue given is for Kruger Products L.P. Shareholders of KP Tissue Inc has done poorly on this stock.

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth non-existent. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.89%. They have paid dividends for the last 7 years and they have not changed. Analysts do not expect that it will change in the near future.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are non-calculable as they have EPS losses and no cash flow. The DPR for EPS is non- calculable because the earning losses. The DPR for CFPS is non-calculable as they have no cash flow.

Debt Ratios are probably fine because they have a lot of assets compared to the liabilities. The company has no long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.41. This means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. There is no cash flow. The Debt Ratio is 16.39. There are a lot of assets to cover the liabilities.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 8 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.00%	4.81%	-1.56%	6.37%
2013	8	-0.71%	-0.79%	-5.87%	5.09%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are all negative, so useless. The corresponding 8 year and historical P/E Ratios are also all negative and so useless. The current P/E Ratio is 348.33 based on a stock price of $10.45 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $0.03. The P/E Ratio for 2022 is 22.23 based on a stock price of $10.45 and EPS estimate for 2022 of $0.47. The P/E Ratio for 2023 is 11.48 based on a stock price of $10.45 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $0.91. The only really reasonable P/E Ratio is the one for 2023 at 11.48. However, the further out estimates are, the more unreliable they are.

I get a Graham Price of $2.30. The estimated 9 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 4.72, 5.78 and 6.79. I can only estimate these because in the past 9 years, this stock only had one year of positive earnings. The current P/GP Ratio is 4.54 based on a stock price of $10.45. This is ratio is below the low of the 9 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, any P/GP Ratio over 1.50 is probably showing that the company is expensive.

I get an 8 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 0.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. The current P/B Ratio is 1.33 based on a Book Value of $77.5M, Book Value per Share of $7.87 and a stock price of $10.45. The current ratio is 34% above the 8 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. However, stocks with a P/B Ratio of 1.50 or lower are considered cheap.

This company has no cash flow, so I cannot do any cash flow testing.

I get a 7 year and historical median dividend yield of 5.27%. The current yield is 6.89% based on Dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $10.45. The current yield is 31% above the 7 year and historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.11. The current P/S Ratio is 0.07 based on Revenue for 2021 of $1,437M, Revenue per Share of $145.75 and a stock price of $10.45. The current P/S Ratio is 32% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. However, the Revenue that is shown is the Revenue for Kruger Products L.P. You have to wonder how valid this test is.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably relatively cheap. However, most of the stock price testing is questionable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (1) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $11.25. This implies a total return of 14.55% with 7.66% from capital gains and 6.89% from dividends.

There is nothing recent from analysts on Stock Chase. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool like the high dividend on this stock. Personally, I would not go for a high dividend on a stock and especially one that cannot cover the dividend. I would go for a lower dividend with growth. Adam Othman on Motley Fool also likes this stock for its high dividend. The company talks about its third quarter on Newswire. A Simply Wall Street Report on Yahoo Finance talks about the fact that analysts expect the company to start to have a profit in the near future.

KP Tissue Inc operates as a holding company. They have a Limited Partnership interest in L. P. Kruger. The firm produces, distributes, markets, and sells a range of disposable tissue products in North America. Its web site is here KP Tissue Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Maple Leaf Foods Inc (TSX-MFI, OTC-MLFNF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Metro Inc (TSX-MRU, OTC-MTRAF) ... learn more on Monday, January 03, 2022 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Maple Leaf Foods Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. It has only in the past 10 years been a dividend growth company. The recent dividend yields are the best it has been. Debt Ratios are good, but long term debt has recently been increased over 50%. Total Return over the long term has been low to reasonable. See my spreadsheet on Maple Leaf Foods Inc.

I do not own this stock of Maple Leaf Foods Inc (TSX-MFI, OTC-MLFNF). I am doing a report on this stock because it was on the Top 100 Canadian Dividend Stocks by Maple Money . It also was on the Top 100 Dividend Stocks Money Sense for 2021 gets a solid C Rating from Money Sense. This is a new stock for me to follow.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the dividends were flat from 1996 to 2014. In 2015, after the dividend was flat for some 18 years, the dividend was double and then there has been increases since. The dividends have increase by some 14.87% per year over the past 5 years. So. dividends over the past 30 years have gone up 6 times and have gone done 2 times. The decreases happened a long time again in 1995 and 1996.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.5%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low (less than 2%) at 1.68%, 1.42% and 1.43%. The dividends have grown moderately (8% to 14% ranges) at 14.87% per year over the past 5 years. Dividends have also grown moderately at 14.87% per year over the past 10 years.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 70% with 5 year coverage at 52%. This is expected to moderate to 57% in 2021. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share for 2020 is 33% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow in 2020 is negative with 5 year coverage at 64%. The FCF is expected to be negative in 2021 also.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is good at 0.21. They increased their debt by 55% in 2021, but the ratio is still good at 0.33. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is low at 1.32, but if you had in cash flow after dividends it is good at 1.61. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.00. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good and low at 2.00 and 1.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 30 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	14.87%	5.47%	3.50%	1.97%
2010	10	14.87%	11.32%	9.50%	1.83%
2005	15	9.68%	5.50%	4.21%	1.28%
2000	20	7.18%	8.15%	6.57%	1.58%
1995	25	4.46%	8.02%	6.30%	1.72%
1990	30	1.75%	4.76%	3.23%	1.53%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 22.43, 28.04 and 33.65. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 18.86, 22.48 and 26.74. The corresponding historical ratios are 16.6, 19.72 and 24.60. The current P/E Ratio is 23.21 based on a stock price of $29.24 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $1.26. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $21.80. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.14, 1.35 and 1.58. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.34 based on a stock price of $29.24. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.74. The current P/B Ratio is 1.75 based on a stock price of $29.24, Book Value of $2,067M and Book Value per Share of $16.76. The current ratio is 0.07% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.83. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.44 based on a stock price of $29.24, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2021 of $2.80 and Cash Flow of $345M. The current ratio is 6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.43%. The current dividend yield is 2.46% based on Dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $29.24. The current dividend yield is 72% above the historical median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.42%. The current dividend yield is 2.46% based on Dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $29.24. The current dividend yield is 73% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.85. The current P/S Ratio is 0.79 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $4,583M, Revenue per Share of 37.15 and a stock price of $29.24. The current ratio is 7% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable to expensive. The P/S Ratio test is saying the stock price is reasonable and below the median. The dividend tests are showing the stock as expensive. The 10 year dividend yield test is telling because they started to raise dividends 10 years ago. Why this test is important is because dividends can be thought of as showing the true financials of a company. Dividends have to paid in cash, so the company has to have the cash to cover the dividends. However, it is only the dividend tests that are showing the stock price as expensive, so, there is the possibility the stock price is reasonable..

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price from most of the testing is showing the stock price as reasonable. Analysts expect the stock price to rise a lot in the next 12 months. The range is from $36 to $45 with $41.50 as the median. This company has been around for a very long time and I have some 30 years of data. It is just in the last 10 years has it become a dividend growth company. EPS has gone up (25% and 17% per year over the past 5 and 10 years), but Revenue has not (and is up by 5%% and down by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years). I would personally not be quick to purchase this stock.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3) and Buy (3). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $41.50. This implies a total return of 78.59% with 76.13% from capital gains and 2.46% from dividends.

A couple of analysts like this stock on Stock Chase but one is worried about the new debt the company has taken on. Christopher Liew Motley Fool thinks this stock should appeal to income investors. Joey Frenette Motley Fool thinks this company is cheap and has compelling catalysts. The company announced on Newswire that they were purchasing 4 pig farms in Saskatchewan. A recent Simply Wall Street Report on Yahoo Finance talks about who owns this company.

Maple Leaf Foods Inc is a consumer packaged meats company, originally from Canada. The company produces prepared meats and meals, fresh pork, and poultry and turkey products. The firm also has agribusiness operations. These operations supply livestock to the meat products business operations. The company's main markets are Canada, the United States, Japan, and China. Its web site is here Maple Leaf Foods Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc (TSX-NBLY, OTC-none) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be KP Tissue Inc (TSX-KPT, OTC-KPTSF) ... learn more on Friday, December 31, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Best Charities.... learn more on Thursday, December 30, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc

This is the first of three new stocks I will be following. They are Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc (TSX-NBLY, OTC-none), Maple Leaf Foods Inc (TSX-MFI, OTC-MLFNF) and KP Tissue Inc (TSX-KPT, OTC-KPTSF). They all will be reviewed this week.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Health Care. The stock price would seem to be expensive, but the stock price has increased by 87% this year and shows no sign of slowing. The stock price has not moved in a straight line, but the end result is a climb in price. Dividend yield is very low at just 0.47%. See my spreadsheet on Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc.

I do not own this stock of Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc (TSX-NBLY, OTC-none). I read about it on the Daily Advice website. This stock has a financial year ending in March 31 each year. This is a new stock I am now following.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that even though there is not much information on this stock and it just went public in May 2021. However, there is a surprising number of analyst’s estimates and number of analysts following this stock.

The dividend yields are low with has little to go on for dividend growth, but the only increase was good. The current dividend yield is low (below2%) at 0.47%. The only other yield was lower at 0.39%. There has only been one dividend increase and it was for 21.62%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) seem that they will be fine. The DPR for EPS for 2021 cannot be calculated as this stock has yet to make a profit. This is expected in for the March 31, 2023 financial year. At that point the DPR for EPS for 2023 is expected be 16%. The DPR for CFPS for 2022 is expected to be 25%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2021 is 16%.

Debt Ratios are currently fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2021 is 1.96, which is too high. If over 1.00 is means that the Long Term Debt is higher than the stock’s Market Cap. However, the current ratio is good at 0.07. The Liquidity Ratio for 2021 is 0.31 and with Cash Flow less Dividends the ratio is 0.41. However, the current Liquidity Ratio is good at 2.38. The Debt Ratio for 2021 is 0.74, but the current one is 2.62. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are not calculable for 2021, but the current ones are 1.66 and 0.63.

The Total Return per year is unknown as this stock has been listed for less than a year. During that time this stock is up 87%.

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are not calculable since this stock only started to trade in May 2021. The P/E Ratio for 2021 cannot be calculated because of a potential earnings loss in 2021. The P/E Ratio for 2022 is 34.62. This is a rather high P/E Ratio. It is based on a stock price of $38.43 and 2022 EPS estimate of $1.11. The P/E Ratio for 2023 is also quite high at 28.26 and it is based on a stock price of $38.43 and EPS estimate for 2023 of $1.36. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $15.20 for 2022 and $16.83 for 2023. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios cannot be calculated because the stock started to trade in May 2021. The P/GP Ratio of 2022 is 2.53 and the P/GP Ratio for 2023 is 2.28. These are based on a stock price of $38.43. These are high P/GP Ratios as generally, the top P/GP Ratio for purchasing a stock is 1.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a current Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 4.15 based on a stock price of $38.43, a Book Value of $305.6M and Book Value per Share of $9.26. A normal P/B Ratio is probably 1.50. When buying a stock, it is often suggested that the top P/B Ratio be 3.00. By this standard, the P/B Ratio of 4.15 is high. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a current Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 64.05 based on CFPS estimate for 2022 of $0.60, Cash Flow of $20M and a stock price of $38.43. The ratio for 2023 is 21.35 based on CFPS estimate $1.80, Cash Flow of $60M and a stock price of $38.43. A decent P/CF Ratio for buying stock is generally considered around 15.00 to 20.00. The P/CF for 2021 is much too high at 64.05, but the one for 2022 is close to good. However, the further out estimates are, the more unreliable they are. But let’s go with reasonable for 2022.

I get a current dividend yield of 0.47% based on a dividend of $0.18 and a stock price of $38.43. There is nothing to compare this to. This dividend yield is very low.

The current Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio of 2.19 based on Revenue estimate for 2022 of $442M, Revenue per Share of $13.22 and a stock price of $38.43. For small cap stocks, a P/S Ratio of 1.00 is considered a good one.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive. This is hard to gauge. I can only compare the ratios to some rules of thumb. These are good guides, but not perfect.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? It may be expensive. I find that this could be an interesting company. Certainly, the stock is up some 87% this year so far. It shows no sign of slowing down.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (2), Hold (4) and Underperform (1). The consensus is a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $33.86. This implies a total loss of 11.42% with a capital loss of 11.89% and dividends of 0.47%. The range for the 12 months stock price is $29.00 to $36.00. So, it would appear that analysts do not expect that the stock price will rise much over the next year.

A Simply Wall Street report is on Yahoo Finance. It talks about the company becoming profitable. The company on Globe Newswire announces a bought deal. The company announces on Newswire acquiring 5 pharmacies in Western Canada. On October 7, 2021 the company via Cision talks about acquiring 20 more stores.

Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc is a network of community pharmacies. Its pharmacies act as the centre of care within their communities, representing an indispensable source of both healthcare delivery and trusted advice for their patients. Its web site is here Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-EFN, OTC-ELEEF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Maple Leaf Foods Inc (TSX-MFI, OTC-MLFNF) ... learn more on Wednesday, December 29, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about RRSP at 71.... learn more on Tuesday, December 28 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Element Fleet Management Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. The stock price is reasonable and maybe cheap, but stock is risky. They are currently growing the dividend. Analysts are lowering their estimates for Revenue and EPS. See my spreadsheet on Element Fleet Management Corp .

I do not own this stock of Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-EFN, OTC-ELEEF). I was looking for stocks to follow and I found this stock in 100 best Dividend Stocks Money Sense for 2018. It was also on Raymond James' top 19 Canadian stocks for 2019 list.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that analysts have lowered their estimates for both revenue and EPS. For Revenue the actuals revenue was at or above the estimates. See the chart below. For example, in 2020, the Revenue estimate for that year (2020) was $953M and the actual for 2020 was $963M.

Estimates	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2022
2018	$873M	$898M	$929M
2019		$984M	$1038M	$1,102M
2020			$953M	$1,006M	$1,055M
2021				$965M	$1,006M	$1,055M
Actuals	$873M	$994M	$963M

For EPS, the actuals came in below the estimates. Se the Chart Below. For example, the EPS estimates for the year 2020 was $0.76, then $0.83 then $0.62. The actual EPS for 2020 was $0.56.

Estimates	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2022
2018	-$0.62	$0.55	$0.76
2019		$0.58	$0.83	$0.95
2020			$0.62	$0.82	$0.91
2021				$0.72	$0.76	$0.92
Actuals	-$0.62	$0.12	$0.56

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.38%. The 4 year median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.94%. They have been paying dividends only for 4 years. The 4 year dividend increase is good (15% and above) at 15.8% per year. The last dividend increase was in 2021 and it was for 44%. Their record of dividends is inconsistent.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 32% with 4 year coverage at 357%. Analysts expect the DPR for EPS to be in 30% to 40% ranges going forward. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 9% with 4 year coverage at 41%. Analysts expect the DPR for CFPS to be in the 20% range going forward. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 5% with 4 year coverage at 21%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is too high at 1.67. It has been coming down as the stock price has been rising. When this ratio is above 1.00 it means that the company’s long term debt is higher than the market cap of this stock. Because this stock is also a financial, I looked at what Assets they have to cover their long term debt. The Debt/Asset Ratio is 0.99. This means they do have enough assets to cover their debt, but barely. Other ratios to look at is Current Liabilities/Asset Ratio and it is 0.07. This ratio is low and therefore is a good ratio. The other thing to look at is Debt/Cash Flow Ratio. For this stock it is 3.54 and a ratio around 3 is fine.

The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 0.59. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it rises to a good ratio of 2.99. The Debt Ratio is rather low at 1.34, but this is a financial which tends to have lower Debt Ratios. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 4.58 and 3.42. I would like these to be lower, but again, Financials tend to have higher ratios compared to other companies.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 9 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	15.83%	7.88%	0.21%	7.68%
2011	9		18.54%	12.23%	6.31%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.13, 18.88 and 24.64. The corresponding 9 year and historical ratios are 11.42, 15.25 and 19.07. The current P/E Ratio is 18.13 based on a stock price of $13.05 and EPS estimate for 2021 of 0.72. The current ratio is between the median and high of the 9 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $14.94. The 9 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.04, 1.30 and 1.57. The current ratio is 0.87 based on a stock price of $13.05. The current ratio is below the 9 year median ratio of 1.04. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 9 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.23. The current P/B Ratio is 0.95 based on a Book Value of $5,688M, Book Value per Share of $13.78 and a stock price of $13.05. The current ratio is 23% below the 9 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 9 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.39. The current P/CF Ratio is 2.00 based on Cash Flow for last 12 months of $2,691M, Cash Flow per Share of $6.52 and a stock price of $13.05. The current ratio is 69% below the 9 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 4 year and historical median dividend yield of 1.94%. The current dividend yield is 2.38% based on a stock price of $13.05 and dividends of $0.25. The current dividend yield is 22% above the 4 year and historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 9 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.80. the current P/S Ratio is 5.58 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $965M, Revenue per Share of $2.34 and a stock price of $13.05. The current ratio is 4% below the 9 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is certainly reasonable and could be cheap. The dividend yield test is showing that the stock price is cheap, but we have only 4 years to go on. The P/S Ratio test is showing that the stock price is reasonable. The P/E Ratio test is also showing that the stock price is reasonable. The others are showing the stock price at cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that this is an interesting company, but it is risky. The price would seem to be reasonable if not cheap. Dividends have inconsistent, but they are now growing.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (4) and Hold (4). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $15.72. This implies a total return of 22.84% with 20.46% from capital gains and 2.38% from dividends based on a current price of $13.05.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), and Underperform (1). The consensus is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus was $15.88. That implied a total return of 22.55% with 20.58% from capital gains and 1.97% from dividends based on a stock price of $13.17. What happened was a total return of 1.06% with a capital loss of 0.91% and dividends of 1.97%. So, recommendations were rather wide of their mark.

There have been no entries in 2021 on Stock Chase. However, in 2020 this company was a top pick. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thought this stock was a solid low risk buy in September 2021. Amy Legate-Wolfe Motley Fool thought buying this company was one way to invest in EV. The company recently announced on Newswire the launch of Element Connectivity Solutions. A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talks about this company. They give warnings of a High Debt Level and an Unstable Dividend Track record.

Element Fleet Management provides management services and financing for commercial vehicle and equipment fleets. The company's suite of fleet management services deals with acquisition and financing, to program management and remarketing. Its web site is here Element Fleet Management Corp .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Bird Construction Inc (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Neighbourly Pharmacy Inc (TSX-NBLY, OTC-none) ... learn more on Monday, December 27, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Bird Construction Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Industrial. The stock price is probably cheap. It will probably be a dividend growth stock again, but it is hard to say when. They had a very good year in 2020 and so far, this year. Debt Ratios need to be improved. See my spreadsheet on Bird Construction Inc.

I do not own this stock of Bird Construction Inc (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF). This was listed as a top stock in ETF of iShares S&P TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index. I had not heard of it before, so I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company had a good year in 2020 with Revenue up 9.3%, EPS up 264% and Cash Flow up 439% from last year. They are doing just as well it seems in 2021, with last 12 month Revenue up 45%, EPS up 33% and Cash Flow up 44% from last 12 months to the third quarter last year. The stock price was up by 12% in 2020 and is up 18% year to date.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth currently non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.12%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 4.93%, 4.82% and 5.97%. Dividends were decreased by 49% in 2017. In the last 20 years, dividends have been increased 11 times and decreased 4 times.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are improving. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 49% with 5 year coverage at 126%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2020 is 29% with 5 year coverage at 47%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2020 is 14% with 5 year coverage at 316%.

Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.15 and this is good and low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.20. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is 1.36. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 1.25. I prefer these last two ratios to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 4.99 and 3.99. I prefer these to be under 3.00 or 2.00.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	-12.48%	-4.93%	-9.25%	4.32%
2010	10	-4.22%	1.55%	-4.30%	5.85%
2005	15	-1.09%	17.23%	4.17%	13.06%
2000	20	6.83%	32.40%	10.69%	21.72%
1997	23		49.62%	17.94%	31.68%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.92, 19.37 and 23.83. The corresponding 10 year Ratios are 14.14, 17.54 and 21.16. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.91, 9.98 and 11.30. The current P/E Ratio is 11.01 based on a stock price of $9.47 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $0.86. The current ratio is below the 10 year low median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $9.27. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.24, 1.54 and 1.83. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price of $9.47. The current ratio is below the 10 year low median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.90. The current P/B Ratio is 2.13 based on a Book Value of $238.7M, Book Value per Share of $4.45 and a stock price of $9.47. The current ratio is 27% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.65. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.81 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $1.97, Cash Flow of $105.8M and a stock price of $9.47. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.97%. The current dividend yield is 4.12% based on dividends of $0.39 and a stock price of $9.47. The current dividend yield is 31% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.82%. The current dividend yield is 4.12% based on dividends of $0.39 and a stock price of $9.47. The current dividend yield is 29% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.33. The current P/S Ratio is 0.23 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $2,254M, Revenue per Share of $41.98 and a stock price of $9.47. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The P/S Ratio says it is cheap. There are problems with the dividend yield tests as dividends were deduced in 2017. All the other tests are showing the stock as relatively cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is relatively cheap. You would buy this company for diversification purposes. The long slow recovery from the 2008 recession and problems with Covid has hurt this company, but most analysts feel that it will start to do better in 2022. They felt that way last year too. At the present time it is very hard to know when the Covid pandemic will be over with.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), and Buy (6). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price is $12.69. This implies a total return of 38.12% with 34% from capital gains and 4.12% from dividends based on a current stock price of $9.47.

Last year when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (4) and Buy (2). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $9.92. This implies a total return of 32.52% with 27.51% from capital gains and 5.01% from dividends based on a share price of $7.78. What happened was a total return of 26.73% with 21.71% from capital gains and 5.01% from dividends. So, the stock did not do quite as well as expected. Last year I said that the stock was relatively cheap.

As with a number of sites, they want you to sign in or pay on Stock Chase. The locked out comments are all buys and the one that isn’t is a Do No Buy. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks that the rising construction starts will benefit this company. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks that the rebounding economy with be great news for this company. A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talks about this company’s dividends. The company reports on their third quarterly results on Newswire.

Bird Construction Inc operates as a general contractor in the Canadian construction market. The company focuses primarily on projects in the industrial, commercial, and institutional sectors of the general contracting industry. Its web site is here Bird Construction Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Sienna Senior Living Inc (TSX-SIA, OTC- LWSCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-EFN, OTC-ELEEF) ... learn more on Friday, December 24, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Advice When You Are Young.... learn more on Thursday, December 23, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Sienna Senior Living Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Health Care. The stock price is probably reasonable. This to me is really a Real Estate company rather than a Health Care Company and it has a very heavy debt load. It has a high dividend, but little in the way of dividend growth. See my spreadsheet on Sienna Senior Living Inc.

I do not own this stock of Sienna Senior Living Inc (TSX-SIA, OTC-LWSCF). When I looked in Stock Chase about Chartwell, Greg Newman; Director & Portfolio Manager, Scotia Wealth Management said he liked Sienna Senior Living Better, so I investigated it.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that there used to be a big difference in dividends calculated using number of units and dividend rate and the dividends actually paid because they had a Dividend Reinvestment Plan. However, in 2021 this plan is being temporarily suspended in order to prevent dilution at the current share price given increased stock market volatility.

It seems more like a Real Estate company than a Health Care company to me. The use of Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) shows that it is being valued like a Real Estate Investment Fund (REIT).

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6%) ranges at 6.42%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also good at 5.34%, 6.09% and 6.54%. The dividend growth is low (below 8%) and almost non-existent at 0.79% per year over the past 5 years. Although when you have relatively high yields, you cannot expect much in growth.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are probably fine, but a bit high for my liking. The DPR for EPS for 2020 cannot be calculated because of an earning loss. The 5 year coverage is 748.52%. Because this stock is treated like a REIT, we have DPR for Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The DPR for FFO for 2020 is 91% with 5 year coverage at 72%. The DPR for AFFO Ratio for 2020 is 91% with 5 year coverage at 68%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2020 is 69% with 5 year coverage at 55%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2020 is 119% with 5 year coverage at 91%. There is some disagreement on what the FCF is, but differences are small.

Debt Ratios are awful for a regular company, but if you think of it as a Real Estate company, they are maybe acceptable. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap for 2020 is 0.95. This is high, but Long Term Debt/Covering Assets Ratio for 2020 is 0.76. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.36. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 3.75 and 2.75 and I prefer them to be less than 3.00 and less than 2.00.

The Liquidity Ratio is awful at 0.54 and gets only to 0.66 when you add in Cash Flow after dividends. This means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. The Current Liabilities/Asset Ratio is fairly good at 6.33. However, Long Term Debt/Cash Flow is high at 13 years, where generally you expect this to be around 3 years, except for Real Estate. If you add back current portion of the long term debt in the Liquidity Ratio, the ratio becomes 1.24. This is still low, but sort of acceptable.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 11 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	0.79%	3.34%	-2.61%	5.95%
2010	10	2.25%	19.21%	8.51%	10.71%
2009	11		11.46%	3.61%	7.84%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 54.07, 60.09 and 66.11. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.47, 9.84 and 10.20. The corresponding historical ratios are all negative so they are unusable. The current P/E Ratio is 12.91 based a stock price of $14.59, EPS estimate for 2021 of $1.13. This ratio is between the median and low of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The wild swings in ratios are because at first the company had earning losses, then a few years of a reasonable profit and then low profit. They have only had a profit in 5 of the last 10 years. Most of the P/E Ratios cannot be taken seriously. A P/E Ratio of 12.91 is a good one or shows the stock at a relatively reasonable price.

Since this stock is more like a REIT, we need to look at Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios (FFO). The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 11.20, 13.05 and 13.83. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.31, 12.57 and 13.62. The current P/FFO Ratio is 12.58 based on a stock price of $14.59 and FFO estimate for 2021 of $1.16. This ratio is between the low and median of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Since this stock is more like a REIT, we need to also look at Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios (AFFO). The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 10.74, 12.11 and 12.68. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.69, 11.41 and 12.44. The current P/FFO is 13.03 based on a stock price of $14.59 and AFFO estimate for 2021 of $1.12. This is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $12.74. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.94, 1.11 and 1.22. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.15 based on a stock price of $14.59. The current ratio is between the median and high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.21. The current P/B Ratio is 2.35 based on a Book Value of $417M, Book Value per Share of $6.22 and a stock price of $14.59. The current ratio is 6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 13.94. The current P/CF Ratio is 10.63 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $92M, Cash Flow per Share of $1.37 and a stock price of $14.59. The current ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.54%. The current dividend yield is 6.42% based on dividends of $0.936 and a stock price of $14.59. The current dividend yield is 2% below the historical dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 6.54%. The current dividend yield is 6.42% based on dividends of $0.936 and a stock price of $14.59. The current dividend yield is 5% above the historical dividend. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.38. The current P/S Ratio is 1.47 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $665M, Revenue per Share of $9.92 and a stock price of $14.59. The current ratio is 7% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend yield and P/S Ratio testing says reasonable with above and below the median. Some of the rest of the testing varies from cheap to expensive and reasonable.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is probably reasonable. However, I would personally not buy this stock. It is really a real estate company and it has very high debt. The Liquidity Ratios are awful.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3) and Hold (7). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $16.53. This implies a total return of 19.71% with 13.30% from capital gains and 6.42% from dividends based on a stock price of $14.59.

When I looked at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Strong Buy (2), Buy (2), and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.53. This implies a total return of 11.51% with 4.76% from capital gains and 6.75% from dividends based on a stock price of $13.87. What happened is a stock price of $14.59 and a gain of 11.94% with 5.19% from capital gains and 6.75% from dividends. This was pretty accurate. Last year I said that the stock price was probably reasonable.

Analysts on Stock Chase have very different recommendations from Top Pick to Do Not Buy. Christopher Liew of Motley Fool likes the under $20 stock price and high yield of this company. Adam Othman on Motley Fool likes the high dividend yield of this company and he thinks it is sustainable. A Simply Wall Street writer via Yahoo Financeworries about the poor Dividend characteristics of this stock. The company talks about its third quarter on Globe Newswire.

Sienna Senior Living Inc is one of the largest owners of seniors' housing, the largest licensed long-term care operator in Ontario, and a provider of services across the full continuum of care. Its web site is here Sienna Senior Living Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX-CSH.UN, OTC-CWSRF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bird Construction Inc (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF) ... learn more on December 22, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Undervalued Canadian Stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, December 21, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Chartwell Retirement Residences

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Health Care. Stock price would seem to be reasonable. Stock is more like a Real Estate stock than a Health Care stock to me. This company has a lot of debt. Dividend yield is good, but dividend increases low. See my spreadsheet on Chartwell Retirement Residences.

I do not own this stock of Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX-CSH.UN, OTC-CWSRF). I saw this stock on a dividend investing blog and looked it up on Stock Chase.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that they have a very weak Balance Sheet. The current liabilities are far greater than the current assets. Even adding in cash flow after dividends, the company does not get close to covering current liabilities. It is only when you also add back the current mortgage payable amount that we get a value over 1.00 and it is 1.06. If we use cash flow after working capital it will be 1.31. This company has heavy debt. This could be a problem in economic hard times.

It seems more like a Real Estate company than a Health Care company to me. The use of Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) shows that it is being valued like a Real Estate Investment Fund (REIT).

The dividend yields are good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.41%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.99% and 4.80%. The historical dividend yield is good at 5.78%. The dividend growth is low (under 8%) with 5 year growth per year at 2.13%. They have been paying dividends for 16 years and in that time, they have raised the dividends 7 times, but have decreased them 4 times.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are only fine for FFO and AFFO. The DPR for EPS for 2021 is 876% with 5 year coverage at 1169%. Because this stock has the characteristics of a REIT, I am also looking Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO). The DPR for FFO for 2020 is 80% with 5 year coverage at 66%. The DPR for AFFO for 2020 is 88% with 5 year coverage at 71%. The DPR for CFPS is 51% with 5 year coverage at 48%. I prefer these ratios to be at 40% or less. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2020 is 100% with 5 year coverage at 362%. However, there is a difference in what different sites are reporting for FCF.

Debt Ratios need to improve and the company has a lot of debt. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is fine but a bit high at 0.92. They have a lot of mortgage debt so I also looked at Debt/Covering Assets and the ratio is fine at 0.71. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.27. I prefer this to be at 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are too high at 4.75 and 3.75. I prefer these to be below 3.00 and 2.00.

The Liquidity Ratio is very low at 0.32. Even if you add in Cash Flow after dividends, it is still very low at 0.63. If this ratio is not 1.00 or higher it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. Even if you add back the current portion of the long term debt, you only get to a ratio of 1.06. This ratio should be 1.50 or higher.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	2.13%	2.99%	-1.92%	4.91%
2010	10	1.21%	9.63%	3.49%	6.14%
2005	15	-3.60%	2.77%	-2.16%	4.93%
2003	17	-3.48%	5.81%	-0.53%	6.34%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 230.43, 245.40 and 260.37. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 126.04, 161.90 and 189.57. The corresponding historical ratios are all negative and so useless. The current P/E Ratio is negative and so unusable. The P/E Ratios are very high because the stock is not making much in earnings.

Since this stock is more like a REIT, we need to look at Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios. The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/FFO Ratios are 14.94, 16.08 and 17.63. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.61, 14.44 and 16.73. The current P/FFO Ratio is 17.95 based on a stock price of $11.31 and FFO estimate for 2021 of $0.57. This is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Since this stock is more like a REIT, we need to look at Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios. The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 15.82, 17.20 and 18.91. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.74, 15.75 and 17.98. The current P/FFO is 19.84 based on a stock price of $11.31 and AFFO estimate for 2021 of $0.63. This is above the high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $7.43 using FFO in the equation rather than EPS. In the last 17 year, EPS has been positive 7 times and negative 10 times. This makes the Graham Price using EPS more guess work than anything else. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.26, 1.45 and 1.66. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.52 based on a stock price of $11.31. The current ratio is between the median and high of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.20. The current P/B Ratio is 2.91 based on a Book Value of $833M, Book Value per Share of $3.89 and a stock price of $11.31. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 15.25. The current P/CF Ratio is 14.56 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $166M, Cash Flow per Share of $0.78 and a stock price of $11.31. The current ratio is 5% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.78%. The current dividend yield is 5.41% based on a stock price of $11.31 and dividends of $0.612. The current dividend yield is 6% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.80%. The current dividend yield is 5.41% based on a stock price of $11.31 and dividends of $0.612. The current dividend yield is 13% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.78. The current P/S Ratio is 2.66 based on a stock price of $11.31, Revenue estimate for 2021 of $909M and Revenue per Share of $4.25. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price seems to be reasonable and probably below the median. The 10 year median dividend yield test shows this as does the P/S Ratio test. The historical median dividend yield test says reasonable but above the median. The P/B Ratio and P/CF Ratios say he stock price is reasonable and below the median. The test involving FFO and AFFO say differently, but this stock is not exactly a REIT, but it is very much like a Real Estate stock.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock seems to be selling at a reasonable price. I would not personally be interested in this stock as I do not want anymore Real Estate stock. The dividend yields are good, but increases are small to non-existent. I rather have a growth company with lower dividend yields but better dividend growth.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2), Buy (4) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.07. This implies a total return of 29.81% with 24.40% from capital gains and 5.41% from dividends.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found Strong Buy (1), Buy (5) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus was $12.46. This implies a total return of 11.92% with 6.68% from capital gains and 5.24% from dividends based on a stock price of $11.68. What happened was a decline in the stock price of 3.17% and so total return was 2.07% with a capital loss of 3.17% and dividends of 5.24%. Last year I said that the stock price was reasonable.

Analysts on Stock Chase mostly think this is a buy. Kay Ng Motley Fool thinks the stock is cheap and now is the time to buy. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool think this stock is an excellent dividend play. A writer on Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says this stock is trading near its fair value of $10.71 but there are four risk warnings of (1) Interest payments are not well covered by earnings, (2) Dividend of 5.43% is not well covered by earnings, (3) Large one-off items impacting financial results and (4) Shareholders have been diluted in the past year. The company reports its third quarter results via Yahoo Finance.

Chartwell Retirement Residences is an unincorporated open-ended trust. The company is engaged in the ownership, operation, and management of retirement and long-term care communities in Canada. Its web site is here Chartwell Retirement Residences.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Richards Packaging Income Fund (TSX-RPI.UN, OTC-RPKIF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Sienna Senior Living Inc (TSX-SIA, OTC- LWSCF) ... learn more on Monday, December 20, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Richards Packaging Income Fund

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The stock price seems expensive at the current time. Expect lower dividend yields in the future. It is a growth company. Shareholders have done well in the past with both dividend growth and Capital Gain growth. See my spreadsheet on Richards Packaging Income Fund.

I do not own this stock of Richards Packaging Income Fund (TSX-RPI.UN, OTC-RPKIF). A member of one of my investment clubs suggested this stock.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that the stock price has fallen over 25% year to date. It would seem that 2020 was a good year, but so far this year, quarterly Revenue and EPS has fallen. If you look at the year to date Revenue and EPS of the third quarter, Revenue is down 6% and EPS is down almost 29%. From the chart below, the current lower stock price really only affects the Total Return for the last 5 years.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	8.40%	22.09%	18.14%	3.95%
2010	10	5.32%	29.00%	22.50%	6.51%
2005	15	1.09%	19.33%	13.62%	5.71%
2004	16	4.42%	17.97%	12.27%	5.70%

The dividend yields are moderate with 5 year dividend growth moderate, but currently flat. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.31%. The 5 year median dividend yield is also moderate at 3.68%. The 10 year median dividend yield is good (5% to 6% range) at 5.29%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% and above) at 7.31%. This stock used to be an income trust and so the high past dividend yields. The dividend growth for the past 5 years is 8.40% per year. However, this is because there were big dividend increases in 2016 and 2017. The dividends have been flat since then.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 30% with 5 year coverage at 58%. The DPR for CFPS for 2020 is 15% with 5 year coverage at 26%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 202 is 22% with 5 year coverage at 40%.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is very good at just 0.03. I also look Debt to Cash Flow and how many years it would take to pay off the debt in cash flow. For this, 3 years is a good number, but for this company it is 0.32 years (i.e., less than 1 year). The Liquidity Ratio is low at 1.32, but add in cash flow after dividends and it is 1.73. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.83. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.20 and 1.20.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 16 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2015	5	8.40%	36.07%	32.00%	4.08%
2010	10	5.32%	29.27%	24.27%	5.00%
2005	15	1.09%	20.57%	15.41%	5.15%
2004	16	4.42%	17.55%	12.98%	4.57%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.46, 17.92, 20.37. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.98, 16.47 and 19.38. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.64, 15.70 and 18.38. The current P/E Ratio is 15.42 based on EPS estimate for 2021 of $3.70 and a stock price of $57.05. This ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $34.48. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.01, 1.35 and 1.64. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.65 based on a stock price of $57.05. The current ratio is above the high of the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Different people calculate the Graham Price differently. In the above equation, I am using the formula with the EPS part using the EPS estimate for 2021. Another way of calculating this is to use the Graham Price formula with the last 3 EPS. In this case for years 2018 to 2020. Here Graham Price is $32.96 and the 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.10, 1.57 and 1.90. The P/GP Ratio is 1.73 based on a stock price of $57.05. This ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.29. The current P/B Ratio is 3.99 based on a stock price of $57.05, Book Value of $166M, and a Book Value per Share of $14.28. The current ratio is 74% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.21. The current ratio is 12.71 based on Cash Flow for the last 12 months of $52.3, Cash Flow per Share of $4.49 and a stock price of $57.05. The current ratio is 38% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.31%. The current dividend yield is 2.31% based on a stock price of $57.05 and a dividend of $1.32. The current dividend yield is 68% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.29%. The current dividend yield is 2.31% based on a stock price of $57.05 and a dividend of $1.32. The current dividend yield is 56% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.82. The current P/S Ratio is 1.51 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $441M. The current ratio is 84% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is on the expensive side. Most of the testing is showing this. The exception is the P/E Ratio where the stock price is showing as reasonable. The best test probably is the P/S Ratio test and it is showing the stock as relatively expensive. The problem with the dividend yield tests is the fact that this company used to be an Income Trust and Income Trust always paid relatively higher dividend yield than other companies.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I think that the price is on the high side. Shareholders have had good returns in both dividends and capital gains. However, I would expect that the dividend yield to be lower in the future. Although this might be a company to watch and buy when the price is more reasonable.

This company had its best year probably in 2020 as far as Revenue, EPS and Cash Flow is concerned. I see that the stock price with a 5 year capital gain of 32% is rising faster than the Revenue with 5 year gain of 14%, EPS with a 5 year gain of 18%. However, Cash Flow is rising faster with a 5 year gain of 38% and Cash Flow per Share with a 5 year gain also of 38%.

On the other hand, the stock is down some 25% to date. The 5 year capital gain growth to date is 18%. The 5 year growth in EPS to date is 34%, but the 5 year Revenue Growth to Date is 10% and the 5 year growth in Cash Flow is 9%. Year to date, Revenue is up but EPS and Cash Flow is down. The Final thing is that it is Revenue that in the end that will push growth in EPS and Cash Flow.

I look at the total return over a number of years. For P/S Ratio and P/E Ratio, the lower the ratio the cheaper the stock. For yield, the higher the yield, the cheaper the stock. In the chart below you can see that the beginning P/E Ratios level has not predicted good returns and neither has the Dividend Yield. It would seem that only the P/S Ratio has and the current one is higher than in the past.

In the following chart the total return for the 10 years to December 31, 2020 is 29.27% per year. The beginning yield was at 8.98%, and the P/E Ratio and the P/S Ratio were at 10.06 and 0.58. Does this chart change my opinion of the stock price?

# Years	Total Ret	Beg P/E	Beg P/S	Beg Yield
5	36.07%	19.77	0.90	4.60%
10	29.27%	10.06	0.58	8.98%
15	20.57%	13.36	0.56	12.54%
16	17.55%	20.57	0.99	6.06%
current		15.42	1.50	2.31%

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find a Strong Buy (1) recommendation. The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus (but there is only one) is $80.00. This implies a total return of 42.54% with 40.23% from capital gains and 2.31% from dividends.

Most of the analysts on Stock Chase like this stock as a buy. Nikhil Kumar on Motley Fool thinks this stock will out outperform the market. Adam Othman on Motley Fool thinks this company has a stable and profitable business and the stock would be good to add growth to a TFSA. A writer at Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance says that the company has a sustained record of paying dividends and might rise them again in the future. The company announces their third quarter results on Globe Newswire.

Richards Packaging Income Fund (the “Fund”) is a limited purpose, open-ended trust created on February 26, 2004 to invest in distribution businesses throughout North America. The Fund commenced operations on April 7, 2004 when the Fund completed an initial and indirectly purchased 96% of the securities of Richards Packaging Inc. The remaining 4% represented the exchangeable shareholder ownership by management. Richards Packaging Inc is involved in packaging distribution businesses. Its web site is here Richards Packaging Income Fund.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Magna International Inc (TSX-MG, NYSE-MGA) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX-CSH.UN, OTC-CWSRF) ... learn more on Friday, December 17, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Health Care Stocks.... learn more on Thursday, December 16, 2021 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.