I do not own this stock of Bird Construction Inc (TSX-BDT, OTC-BIRDF). This was listed as a top stock in ETF of iShares S&P TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index. I had not heard of it before, so I decided to do a spreadsheet on this stock.
When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that this company had a good year in 2020 with Revenue up 9.3%, EPS up 264% and Cash Flow up 439% from last year. They are doing just as well it seems in 2021, with last 12 month Revenue up 45%, EPS up 33% and Cash Flow up 44% from last 12 months to the third quarter last year. The stock price was up by 12% in 2020 and is up 18% year to date.
The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth currently non-existent. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 4.12%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are good (5% to 6% ranges) at 4.93%, 4.82% and 5.97%. Dividends were decreased by 49% in 2017. In the last 20 years, dividends have been increased 11 times and decreased 4 times.
The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are improving. The DPR for EPS for 2020 is 49% with 5 year coverage at 126%. The DPR for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) for 2020 is 29% with 5 year coverage at 47%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2020 is 14% with 5 year coverage at 316%.
Debt Ratios need improving. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2020 is 0.15 and this is good and low. The Liquidity Ratio for 2020 is 1.20. If you add in Cash Flow after dividends it is 1.36. The Debt Ratio for 2020 is 1.25. I prefer these last two ratios to be 1.50 or higher. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2020 are 4.99 and 3.99. I prefer these to be under 3.00 or 2.00.
The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2020. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.
| From | Years | Div. Gth | Tot Ret | Cap Gain | Div. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 5 | -12.48% | -4.93% | -9.25% | 4.32% |
| 2010 | 10 | -4.22% | 1.55% | -4.30% | 5.85% |
| 2005 | 15 | -1.09% | 17.23% | 4.17% | 13.06% |
| 2000 | 20 | 6.83% | 32.40% | 10.69% | 21.72% |
| 1997 | 23 | 49.62% | 17.94% | 31.68% |
The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 14.92, 19.37 and 23.83. The corresponding 10 year Ratios are 14.14, 17.54 and 21.16. The corresponding historical ratios are 6.91, 9.98 and 11.30. The current P/E Ratio is 11.01 based on a stock price of $9.47 and EPS estimate for 2021 of $0.86. The current ratio is below the 10 year low median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a Graham Price of $9.27. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.24, 1.54 and 1.83. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.02 based on a stock price of $9.47. The current ratio is below the 10 year low median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.90. The current P/B Ratio is 2.13 based on a Book Value of $238.7M, Book Value per Share of $4.45 and a stock price of $9.47. The current ratio is 27% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 6.65. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.81 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2020 of $1.97, Cash Flow of $105.8M and a stock price of $9.47. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.97%. The current dividend yield is 4.12% based on dividends of $0.39 and a stock price of $9.47. The current dividend yield is 31% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.82%. The current dividend yield is 4.12% based on dividends of $0.39 and a stock price of $9.47. The current dividend yield is 29% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.
The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.33. The current P/S Ratio is 0.23 based on Revenue estimate for 2021 of $2,254M, Revenue per Share of $41.98 and a stock price of $9.47. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.
Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. The P/S Ratio says it is cheap. There are problems with the dividend yield tests as dividends were deduced in 2017. All the other tests are showing the stock as relatively cheap.
Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The stock price is relatively cheap. You would buy this company for diversification purposes. The long slow recovery from the 2008 recession and problems with Covid has hurt this company, but most analysts feel that it will start to do better in 2022. They felt that way last year too. At the present time it is very hard to know when the Covid pandemic will be over with.
When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), and Buy (6). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price is $12.69. This implies a total return of 38.12% with 34% from capital gains and 4.12% from dividends based on a current stock price of $9.47.
Last year when I look at analysts’ recommendations, I found Strong Buy (4) and Buy (2). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $9.92. This implies a total return of 32.52% with 27.51% from capital gains and 5.01% from dividends based on a share price of $7.78. What happened was a total return of 26.73% with 21.71% from capital gains and 5.01% from dividends. So, the stock did not do quite as well as expected. Last year I said that the stock was relatively cheap.
As with a number of sites, they want you to sign in or pay on Stock Chase. The locked out comments are all buys and the one that isn’t is a Do No Buy. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks that the rising construction starts will benefit this company. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks that the rebounding economy with be great news for this company. A Simply Wall Street report on Yahoo Finance talks about this company’s dividends. The company reports on their third quarterly results on Newswire.
Bird Construction Inc operates as a general contractor in the Canadian construction market. The company focuses primarily on projects in the industrial, commercial, and institutional sectors of the general contracting industry. Its web site is here Bird Construction Inc.
The last stock I wrote about was about was Sienna Senior Living Inc (TSX-SIA, OTC- LWSCF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Element Fleet Management Corp (TSX-EFN, OTC-ELEEF) ... learn more on Friday, December 24, 2021 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Advice When You Are Young.... learn more on Thursday, December 23, 2021 around 5 pm.
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