Emera Inc

Bye the way, I bought some Saputo Inc (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF) stock this morning because the stock market is going down and it was at a good price.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Price is current reasonable but above the median. However, this is changing and is currently going lower as is the whole TSX. Shareholders have done well with this stock, but I find debt worrisome at the moment but it is being dealt with by the company. See my spreadsheet on Emera Inc.

I own this stock of Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA). I found this company in Mike Higgs’ site. Mike’s site has a spreadsheet showing Dividend Paying Canadian Growth stocks. I first bought this stock in 2005, as I wanted to buy something for my Locked in RRSP. I think that this was an appropriate stock and has good value. I was using up excess cash in my account.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I have done very well with this stock. My total return to date is 13.36% per year with 8.84% from capital gain and 4.52% from dividends. Shareholders in general have done well with total returns.

However, I have been worried about debt and debt ratios. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio hit a high of 1.55 in 2016 and has been declining and is expected to be at 0.93 this year. More worrisome is the Liquidity Ratio where even after adding in cash flow after dividends and current portion of the long term debt it only reaches 94. Doing a current calculation, using estimates, the ratio meets 1.00. If this Ratio is below 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities.

The dividend yields are moderate with dividend growth low to moderate. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) as is longer term median ratios. The current dividend 4.35%, with 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields at 4.69%, 4.26% and 4.77%. The last dividend increase was low (below 8%) at 4.3%. Since 2016 when there was a 20% increase, the increases have been low. Dividend increases have been volatile but in the moderate range over the last while. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios need to improve. They currently seem to be going in the right direction. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 86% with 5 year coverage at 94%. This is too high as it is best for utilities for it to be 80% or less. Since Free Cash Flow was negative in 2019 (WSJ and Morningstar agreeing), I cannot calculate the DPR. Same problem for the 5 year coverage. However, the DPR for FCF is expected to be positive in 2020 with a DPR of 49% and Dividend Coverage Ratio of 2.03. This would be fine.

Debt Ratios need to improve. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is 1.01 in 2019 and is too high. It becomes 0.96 in 2020 because of rising stock price. (But who know what is going to happen in the short term with the corvid 19 virus.) I had mentioned about my problem with the Liquidity Ratio. They cannot cover their current liabilities however you look at the accounting. The Debt Ratio is low at 1.37. It is better at 1.50 or above. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 4.21 and 3.08 are also too high. But these tend to be high for utilities.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 27 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	10.00%	12.26%	7.62%	4.63%
2009	10	8.71%	12.97%	8.33%	4.64%
2004	15	6.84%	11.69%	7.36%	4.34%
1999	20	5.40%	11.56%	7.01%	4.56%
1994	25	4.66%	11.57%	6.61%	4.96%
1992	27	4.53%	11.27%	6.29%	4.98%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.56, 18.37 and 21.17. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 14.95, 17.57 and 20.62. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.41, 15.36 and 21.11. The current P/E Ratio is 20.06 based on a stock price of $56.37 and 2020 EPS estimate of $2.81. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $4.39. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.11, 1.28 and 1.44. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.27 based on a stock price of $56.37. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.84. The current P/B Ratio is 1.81 based on a stock price of $56.37, Book Value of $7,556M, and Book Value per Share of $31.16. The current ratio is 1.8% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 4.77%. The current dividend yield is 4.35% based on dividends of $2.45 and a stock price of $56.37. The current dividend yield is 8.9% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.26%. The current dividend yield is 4.35% based on dividends of $2.45 and a stock price of $56.37. The current dividend yield is 2% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.99. The current P/S Ratio is 2.17 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $6,307M, Revenue per Share of $26.01 and a stock price of $56.37. The current ratio is 8.9% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but close or above the median. We are currently in a down market or maybe a correction. This stock is into reasonable territory, but the longer this correction last it could get into cheaper territory. I do not see a problem with any of the above testing.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do like this company and have no intention of selling my shares. However, the debt levels are worrisome, but the company seems to be trying to get the debt under better control. This is a dividend growth company. I have 26 years of data and only one year when the dividends did not increase which was 2003.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (2), Hold (3), Underperform (1) and Sell (1). This shows there is little in the way of consensus. However, the consensus score is showing as a Hold. The 12 month stock price of $61.20. This implies a total return of 12.91% with 8.57% from capital gains and 4.35% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Most still like this company. Cindy Dye on Motley Fool thinks this is a great stock that has consistently rewarded its shareholders. A writer on Simply Wall Street says shareholders have been well rewarded by this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company has a ROE in line with other utilities, but rely on debt to do this. Gary Stephens on Modern Reader say that National Bank has lowered its EPS estimate for 2020.

Emera is geographically diverse energy and services company investing in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution as well as gas transmission and utility energy services. Emera has operations throughout North America and the Caribbean countries. Its web site is here Emera Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Bombardier Inc (TSX-BBD.B, OTC-BDRBF) ... learn more on Monday, March 2, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

IGM Financial Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. Stock price is cheap to reasonable. Analysts expect dividend increases in the short term. Dividend yield is still good. See my spreadsheet on IGM Financial.

I do not own this stock of IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF), but I used as IGM was known as a dividend growth stock and it was on a lot of lists of good stocks, including Mike Higgs' and Dividend Aristocrats. I sold this 2011 because I had Power Financial, of which this company is partially owned by and I wanted to rationalize my portfolio.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that it only has had one increase for 4.7% in the last 5 years. Dividends are flat. However, analysts expect them to start raising the dividends again this year.

The dividend yields are moderate to good with dividend growth low. The dividend yield used to be moderate (2% to 4% ranges) but is currently good (5% and 6% ranges). The current dividend yield is 6.01%. The 5, 10 and historical yields are 5.95%, 5.20% and 3.45%. Dividends have not increased much lately. See chart below. However, analysts expect a 6% raise in dividends this year.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are probably a bit too high. The DPR for 2019 for EPS was 72% with 5 year coverage at 74.5%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was76% with 5 year coverage at 73.9%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 86% with 5 year coverage at 88%. Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 was 1.17 with 5 year ratio at 1.13. Note that Morningstar and Wall Street Journal disagree on what the FCF values are. I went with the Morningstar Report from the TD WebBroker.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is low and good at 0.24. The Securitized Mortgage coverage is good at 0.96. The Liquidity Ratio is high and good at 1.98. The Debt Ratio is fine at 1.41, but I like to see this at 1.50. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 3.42 and 2.42, respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.91%	3.62%	-2.04%	5.67%
2009	10	0.94%	4.13%	-1.29%	5.41%
2004	15	4.58%	5.48%	0.11%	5.37%
1999	20	7.92%	8.81%	3.01%	5.80%
1994	25	11.15%	12.43%	6.00%	6.43%
1990	29	11.33%	16.50%	8.85%	7.65%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.96, 11.78 and 14.24. The corresponding 10 year Ratios are 12.13, 13.74 and 15.62. The corresponding historical ratios at 13.62, 15.72 and 17.94. The current P/E Ratio is 10.87 based on a stock price of $37.45 and a 2020 EPS estimate of $3.51. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $37.97. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.99, 1.03 and 1.06. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.99 based on a stock price of $37.45. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.31. The current P/B Ratio is 2.05 based on a Book Value of $4,349M, Book Value per Share of $18.25 and a stock price of $37.45. The current P/B Ratio is 11% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.45%. The current dividend yield is 6.01% based on dividends of $2.25 and stock price of $37.45. The current yield is 74% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.20%. The current dividend yield is 6.01% based on dividends of $2.25 and stock price of $37.45. The current yield is 15% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 3.65. The current P/S Ratio is 2.61 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $3,413M, Revenue per Share of $14.32 and a stock price of $37.45. The current ratio is 28% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is cheap to reasonable. This testing is showing that the stock price is relatively low. The dividend yield testing is show as cheap to reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio is showing the stock price as cheap. There are no problems with any of the tests.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This has long been a good company for investors, but times change. Although there is still a lot of money in Canada in Mutual Funds, new money seems to be going into ETFs. ETFs since coming on the scene has gather a lot of money. You have to wonder about the company’s future, but they are growing their Assets Under Management (AUM). The price is quite good at present.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1), Buy (1), Hold (6) and Underperform (1). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $41.67. This implies a total return of 17.28% based on a current stock price of $37.45 with 11.27% from capital gains and 6.01% from dividends.

Last year the 12 month stock price consensus was $36.75. This implied a total return of 14.20% with 7.61% from capital gains and 6.59% from dividends based on a stock price of $34.15. What happened with a total return of 16.25% with 9.66% from capital gains and 9.59% from dividends as new price is $37.45. So last year they were reasonably accurate.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Competition from EIFs are worrisome. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks this is a rock solid dividend stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street says that this company has a P/E normal for its industry. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about recent good results. Maurice Goldstein on The Enterprise Leader talks about a recent downgrade by TD Securities.

IGM Financial is the largest non-bank-affiliated asset manager in Canada. The firm is part of the Power Financial group of companies, which includes Great West Life, London Life, Canada Life, and Putnam Investments. Its web site is here IGM Financial.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Emera Inc (TSX-EMA, OTC-EMRA) ... learn more on Friday, February 28, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Lots to do in Toronto.... learn more on Thursday, February 27, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Financial. It has a high dividend and quite low growth. The company has good debt ratios. Dividends are classified as interest income so good for registered accounts. See my spreadsheet on Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp.

I own this stock of Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF). I saw this on company on the Canadian Dividend All-Star List. It has just recently started to pay dividends and dividends are good but are taxed as interest income.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that there was a lot of insider selling. It appears that the Chairman is selling some of his shares. This accounts for most of the insider selling. I have done well in the stock. The dividends are classified for tax purposes as interest, so this is a stock to hold in a TFSA or RRSP or RRIF.

Dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) to high (7% and above). The current dividend is 6.09%. Each year they also pay a bit more in special dividends. For Special Dividends they paid an extra $0.04 in 2019 and will pay an extra $0.06 in 2020. The 5 and 6 year median dividend yields are both at 7.09%. Dividend growth is low. See chart below. The last increase was in 2018 and it was for 2.3%. Dividends have been paid for 7 years only.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are high but fine for this sort of company. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 97.9% with 5 year coverage at 99.9%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 86.7% with 5 year coverage at 88.8%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 77% with 5 year coverage at 70% (MS). I find that Morningstar and Wall Street Journal disagree on what the FCF is. This is not the first time I have found them disagreeing on FCF.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is low and good at 0.20. I did calculate a Liquidity Ratio and it is good at 93.72 but generally this is not calculated for this sort of company. The Debt Ratio is high and good at 2.58. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good and low at 1.63 and 0.63 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 10 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below. They have also given out special dividends and they have done this every year.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	1.92%	13.02%	5.36%	7.67%
2009	10	3.47%	8.60%	3.89%	4.72%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.45, 12.94 and 13.47. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.86, 12.79 and 13.45. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.86, 12.79 and 13.45. The current P/E Ratio is 15.73 based on a stock price of $14.79 and 2020 EPS of $0.94. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $15.17. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 0.80 and 0.85. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.97 based on a stock price of $14.79. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.11. The current P/B Ratio is 1.36 based on a Book Value of $456M, Book Value per Share of $10.88 and a stock price of $14.79. The current ratio is 22% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.09%. The current dividend yield is 6.09% based on dividends of $0.90 and a stock price of $14.79. The current dividend is 14% below the historical median. The 7 year median and the historical median dividend yield is the same. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 7.96. The current P/S Ratio is 9.34 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $66.3M, Revenue per Share of $1.58 and a stock price of $14.79. The current ratio is 17% above the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably a bit pricey. Price is reasonable to expensive. Testing is showing the stock price is either close to expensive or expensive. Last year I thought the price was a bit pricey also and it did well, but it may be pricey for the long term.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a finance company. I do like this company, but I thing it is on the risky side however it has been rated as a median risk. I will be keeping this company. However, since the dividends are considered interest income, it is best in a TFSA, RRSP or RRIF.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.70. This implies a total return of 5.48% with a capital loss of 0.61% and dividends of 6.09%.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations last year, I found a 12 month stock price given as $13.00. This implied a total return of 5.54% with a capital loss of 1.29% and dividend gains of 6.83%. This is based on a current stock price of $13.17. What happened is a stock price of $14.79 which meant a total return of 19.13% with 12.30% from capital gains and 6.83% from dividends.

I looked at Stock Chase, and there are no analyst comments on this stock. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool thinks this is a good company to buy for income. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the company is paying out too much of its earnings in dividends. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks that the P/E is around industry average but is worried about debt levels. As shown on News File this company had a good year in 2019. Aubrey Sendt on Enterprise Echo talks about some recent analysts ratings.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp is a non-banking finance company providing residential and commercial mortgages that lends funds in major urban centres in Canada where the stability and liquidity of real estate are high. Atrium's objectives are to provide its shareholders with stable and secure dividends and preserve shareholders' equity by lending within conservative risk parameters. The company generates its revenue from mortgage interest and fees. Its web site is here Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be IGM Financial (TSX-IGM, OTC-IGIFF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 26, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Northland Power Inc.... learn more on Tuesday, February 25, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Russel Metals Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Stock price is relatively cheap. Dividend yield is good, but flat. DPR is too high, but this is expected to moderate next year. See my spreadsheet on Russel Metals Inc.

I own this stock of Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth List. Mike Higgs was the first blogger I followed. In 2007 I needed to reduce my holdings of Loblaws and buy something to help replace the dividends I had been earning. With Russel Metals, both Mike and TD recommend buying at this time. However, I should keep a watch on this stock as it has had some troubles in the past.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that it has not done well lately. Revenue is down. As usual the EPS are volatile. Cash Flow is up, but this is volatile too. The main thing is that the dividends have been flat since 2014 and it does not appear that they will be increased anytime soon.

The dividend yield is good (5% and 6% ranges) to High (7% and over). I am cautious about dividends over 6%. The current dividend is good at 6.87%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are 5.87%, 5.47% and 5.03%. The dividend growth below may not accurately reflect dividend growth. There were no dividends given between 1993 and 1999. They have a mixed record of growth as dividends have gone down as well as up and they have been flat as well as suspended.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are currently too high. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 124% with 5 year coverage ag 120%. However, analysts expect the DPR for 2020 to drop to 80%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 46% with 5 year coverage at 49%. Over 40% is considered to be high. The DPR for Free Cash Flow is 44% with 5 year coverage at 73%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 2.25 with 5 year ratio at 1.36.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio is good at 0.32. The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 2.16. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.96. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are fine at 2.04 and 1.04.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 29 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.81%	3.17%	-3.06%	6.23%
2009	10	4.28%	9.28%	2.26%	7.02%
2004	15	5.31%	10.30%	2.41%	7.89%
1999	20	11.93%	20.59%	9.16%	11.43%
1994	25	11.93%	10.93%	5.45%	5.48%
1990	29	5.19%	8.86%	4.51%	4.35%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.00, 13.35 and 14.71. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 13.39, 15.90 and 18.41. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.22, 9.93 and 14.38. The current P/E Ratio is 11.65 based on a stock price of $22.14 and 2020 EPS estimate $1.90. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $25.49. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.92, 1.10 and 1.29. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.87 based on a stock price of $22.14. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.83. The current P/B Ratio is 1.46 based on Book Value of $944M, Book Value to Share of $15.19 and a stock price of $22.14. The current ratio is 20% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.03%. The current dividend yield is 6.87% based on dividends of $1.32 and a stock price of $22.14. The current yield is 33% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.47%. The current dividend yield is 6.87% based on dividends of $1.32 and a stock price of $22.14. The current yield is 26% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.52. The current P/S Ratio is 0.39. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is relatively cheap. There is no problem with any of the tests and they are all showing that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a risky stock. It pays a nice dividend. Analysts do not expect the dividend to be cut, but they also do not expect any dividend increase in the short term. It has produced long term profits and dividends for investors. It is current relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Buy (3), and Hold (2). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $25.00. This implies a total return of 19.78% with 12.92% from capital gains and 6.87% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Some say it is cheap, but it is cyclical. Stephanie Bedard-Chateauneuf, on Motley Fool likes this for a TFSA because of its high yield. A writer on Simply Wall Street says ROE is higher than other companies in this industry. A writer on Simply Wall Street has some worries about its debt. Joseph McCarthy on The Enterprise Leader talks about a recent Raymond James report.

Russel Metals Inc is a Canada-based metal distribution company. The company conducts business primarily through three metals distribution segments: metals service centers; energy products; and steel distributors. Its web site is here Russel Metals Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (TSX-AI, OTC-AMIVF) ... learn more on Monday, February 24, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Choice Properties REIT

I did not publish yesterday because I spend all day at CAMH with someone. Life happens, so sometimes you cannot do what you intend.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. Dividends did not growth in 2019 and the Debt Ratio are not great. This stock has had good returns for a REIT. See my spreadsheet on Choice Properties REIT.

I own this stock of Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF). I got this stock when CDN REIT was acquired by Choice Properties. Choice was originally a spin off from Loblaws. Later George Weston Limited (TSX-WN) in a reorganization received Loblaw’s share of choice (61.6% interest) and Loblaws minority shareholders got George Weston Limited shares. The Weston Family own a majority share in George Weston Ltd and George Weston Limited has a controlling interest in Loblaws.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done quite well with the Choice Buyout of my CDN Real Estate stock. My total return to date is 11.27% per year with 6.21% from capital gains and 5.06% from dividends. Since getting Choice Properties in May of 2018, I have made a total return of 7.99% per year with2.74% from capital gains and 5.25% from dividends

This stock has only been around since 2013. The dividend yields are moderate (2% to 4% range) to good (5% and over). The current dividend yield is 4.97%, with the 5 and 6 year median dividend yields at 5.66%. The dividends are increasing, but at a low rate. See chart below. Note that there was no increase in 2019 and analysts do not expect any more in the short term.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. Since the EPS was negative in 2019, I cannot calculate the DPR for EPS for 2019. The 5 year coverage was 1110%. DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 26% with 5 year coverage at 15%. Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations (AFFO) and Cash Flow from Operations (FFO) are important for REITs. The DPR for AFFO for 2019 is 87% with 5 year coverage at 86%. The DPR for FFO for 2019 is 85% with 5 year coverage at 70%. The DPR for AFFO and FFO are within a normal range.

I will look at the Free Cash Flow. However, Morningstar and Wall Street Journal Disagree on FCF amounts with the WSJ a lot lower. Although, to me, the WSJ ones do not make much sense. The DPR for FCF for 2019 is 67% with 5 year coverage at 69%. Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 149 with 5 year coverage at 1.46.

Debt Ratios are not what I like to see. The Long Term Debt Market Cap Ratio is 0.66 which is good. The Liquidity Ratio is 0.72 and adding in Cash Flow after dividends just get us to 0.72. This is the first year this company did not state what the current assets and current liabilities were so I had to calculate them. However, the 5 year median Liquidity Ratio with CF after Dividends is 0.84 so this is too low also. This is low amount when compared to other REITs that I follow.

The Debt Ratio is 1.25 with 5 year median 1.10. This is too low. The other REITs that I follow have a better ratio. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 5.04 and 4.04. This is also quite high and other REITs I follow have more reasonable ratios.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 6 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	2.63%	11.90%	5.85%	6.05%
2013	6	2.18%	10.69%	4.77%	5.92%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are negative and of no value. The 6 year corresponding ratios are 10.08, 11.08 and 12.08. The corresponding historical ratios are the same and the 6 year ones. The current P/E Ratio is a negative 87.59 based on a stock price of $14.89 and an earnings loss of $0.17. The P/E Ratio for 2021 is 15.04 based on a stock price of $14.89 and 2021 EPS estimate of $0.99. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

This is a REIT, so Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations (AFFO) counts as does P/AFFO Ratios. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/AFFO Ratios are 13.54, 15.32 and 16.27. The corresponding 6 year ratios are 13.79, 15.32 and 16.27. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 16.54. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

This is a REIT, so Cash Flow from Operations (FFO) counts as does P/FFO Ratios. The 5 year low, median, and high median P/AFFO Ratios are 11.23, 12.67 and 13.34. The corresponding 6 year ratios are 11.26, 12.67 and 13.34. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 14.60. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $15.12. The 6 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.77, 0.88 and 0.93. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.99 based on a stock price $14.89. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 6 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.21. The current P/B Ratio is 1.50 based on a Book Value of $3,089M, Book Value per Share of $9.96 and a stock price of $14.89. The current P/B Ratio is 23% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical and 6 year median dividend yield of 5.66%. The current dividend yield is 4.97% based on dividends of $0.74 and a stock price of $14.89. The current yield is 12% below the historical and 6 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. The P/E Ratio testing is not good as there are negative P/E Ratios.

The 6 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 6.78. The current P/S Ratio is 7.61 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $1,371M, Revenue per Share of $1.96 and a stock price of $14.89. The current ratio is 12% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable to expensive. The tests that show this stock is relatively expensive is showing the price not far into the expensive zone. However, the test showing the stock price as reasonable are showing the stock price above the median. So, it is getting expensive.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I own this REIT and I will continue to do so but I will keep an eye on it. The balance sheet is leveraged. This can be a problem in an economic downturn. But George Weston Limited has control and deep pockets. It is on the pricey side.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (1) and Hold (8). The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price is $15.06. This implies a total return of 6.11% with 1.14% from capital gains and 4.97% from dividends based on a stock price of $14.89.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. One analyst remarked that the balance sheet is more leveraged that he would like. I feel that way too. But they are working to reduce this leverage. Christopher Liew on Motley Fool thinks this is a good defensive stock to own. A writer Simply Wall Street talks about lack of profit, but FFO and AFFO is what is important for REITs.. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns shares in this company. Manny Gomes on Enterprise Echo talks about what Nation Bank says about this company.

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust invests in, manages, and develops retail and commercial properties across Canada. The company's portfolio primarily consists of shopping centres anchored by supermarkets, and stand-alone supermarkets. The properties are mostly located in Ontario and Quebec, followed by Alberta, Nova Scotia, British Columbia, and New Brunswick. Its web site is here Choice Properties REIT.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Russel Metals Inc (TSX-RUS, OTC-RUSMF) ... learn more on Friday, February 21, 2020 around 5 pm. Today on my other blog I will write about Investing in CAE Inc.... learn more on Thursday, February 20, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Manulife Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Insurance. Stock price is probably reasonable to expensive. I probably invested at the wrong time in this stock. It seems to be improving. Payout ratios are good. See my spreadsheet on Manulife Financial Corp.

I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC). In May 2005, I was look for good companies to buy at a reasonable price. This stock met my criteria. I bought some more stock in October 2005. I had some more money to spend and wanted to buy stock of dividend paying company I owned, for which I did not own too much. In April 2009, I was looking for something else to buy and Manulife was at a good price. In April 2013, I need to buy higher dividend stocks for my RRIF account. There was some money after RRSP sells, so I bought more MFC.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed that I invested in the company initially at the wrong time. I bought this stock almost 15 years ago. I also made other purchases in 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2016. I have made a total return of 2.76% per yar with 0.18% from capital gains and 2.58% from dividends. Looking at total returns from 15 years ago on the stock, it is the lowest at the 15 year period. With a total return of 2.30% with 2.63% from dividends and a capital loss of 0.33%.

The dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% range). The current dividend yield is 4.29% with 5, 10 and historical dividend yields at 3.81%, 3.51% and 3.00%. Dividend growth has not been consistent and the dividends were cut in 2009 by 50%. They were then flat for a number of years and dividend increases began again in 2014. Dividend growth has been in the moderate range (8% to 14% ranges) since 2014. See chart below.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are good. The DPR for EPS in 2019 is 36% with 5 year coverage at 49%. The DPR for CFPS is 9% for 2019 with 5 year coverage at 10%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 7% with 5 year coverage at 9%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 14.69 with 5 year coverage at 10.63. I noticed that that the sites I looked at agreed on what the FCF was.

Debt Ratios are fine. This is a financial, so I look at long term debt and covering assets. The Debt/Covering Assets is 0.99. I calculate a Liquidity Ratio, which is 1.32 for 2019, but this is not an important one for Insurance companies. The Debt Ratio is 1.07 and is normal for financials. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 16.15 and 16.15 respectively. These are a little high for an insurance company.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 20 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	11.90%	6.97%	3.51%	3.46%
2009	10	2.52%	6.12%	3.15%	2.97%
2004	15	5.16%	2.30%	-0.33%	2.63%
1999	20	8.38%	9.34%	5.39%	3.96%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.82, 13.78 and 17.74. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.32, 13.78 and 11.32. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.22, 13.94 and 16.27. The current p/E ratio is 8.34 based on a stock price of $26.11 and 2020 EPS estimate of $3.13. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $40.47. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.68, 0.80 and 0.97. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.65 based on a stock price of $26.11. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.13. The current P/B Ratio is 1.12 based on a stock price of 26.11, Book Value of $45.316M, and Book Value per Share of $23.25. The current ratio is 0.90% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and at the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 3.00%. The current dividend yield is 4.29% based on dividends of $1.12 and a stock price of $26.11. The current dividend yield is 43% above the historical median one. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.51%. The current dividend yield is 4.29% based on dividends of $1.12 and a stock price of $26.11. The current dividend yield is 22% above the 10 year median one. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.76. The current P/S Ratio is 0.96 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $53,240M, Revenue per Share of $27.32 and a stock price of $26.11. The current ratio is 25% above the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable to expensive. You cannot ignore the P/S Ratio and a ratio of 0.96 is on the high side for life insurance companies. The P/B ratio is pointing to a price right at the median and this is an important ratio. However, there is nothing wrong with the other tests. For the dividend yield testing, the Payout Ratio are in a good place and the P/E Ratios are normal. So, we got rather missed results.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? The price maybe reasonable. I still am holding on to my shares because I still expect to make good money from this stock in the end. All life insurance companies have had problems in our current low interest rate environment. Since this company has lots of business in Asia, I expect that it will be affect by the current coronavirus. So, the recovery of stock may be delayed.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (5), Buy (9) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $30.50. This implies a total return 21.10% with 16.81% from capital gains and 4.29% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase . There are mixed reviews, but some say buy at around $26.00. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool thinks it will get much cheaper because of its Asian business and the coronavirus. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the P/E Ratio is low because investors do not believe the strong growth in earnings will continue. A writer on Simply Wall Street thinks the company is undervalued. From Bloomberg News on Leader Post talks about Asia weighing on future outlook.

Manulife provides life insurance and wealth management products and services to individuals and group customers in Canada, the United States, and Asia. Its web site is here Manulife Financial Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Choice Properties REIT (TSX-CHP.UN, OTC-PPRQF) ... learn more on Thursday, February 20, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Investing in Dividend Stocks.... learn more on Tuesday, February 18, 2020 around 5 pm.

Also, on my book blog I have put a review of the book The Wealthy Renter by Alex Avery learn more... On my book blog I have put a review of the book Leadership and The Rise of Great Powers by Yan Xuetong learn more... On my book blog I have put a review of the book Bootlegger Blues by Drew Hayden Taylor learn more...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

ARC Resources Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Paying Resource. The stock price is probably cheap. It has great debt ratios. It has insider ownership. Dividend Payout Ratios need improving. Resource stocks are not my favourite, so I am not recommending buying this. See my spreadsheet on ARC Resources Ltd .

I do not own this stock of ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF). When TFSA first came out, this stock was recommended for this account as it was an income trust at that point and most of the distributions were taxable. This stock is no longer an income trust and the distributions are now dividends and taxed as normal Canadian dividends.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this company had great debt ratios. The Liquidity Ratio is 4.65, with Debt Ratio at 5.89 and Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 1.20 and 0.20. Inside own a lot of shares. For example, the CEO owns shares worth over $5M, the CFO owns shares worth over $1M as the Chairman. A Director owns shares worth over $3M. Also, insider buy shares last year with Net Insider Buying at 0.08%. Anything over 0.01% is high.

Dividend yields are in the Good (5% & 6% ranges) to High (7% and over). The current dividend yield is 8.33%, with 5, 10 and historical dividend yield are 5.13%, 5.01% and 9.25%. This company used to be an income trust. Income trusts can pay high dividends and payouts are based on Funds from Operations (FFO). They have been cutting their dividends. I do not see any growth in the near future. Although analysts do not see near term further cuts to the dividends.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are not where they should be. The DPR for EPS for 2019 cannot be calculated because the EPS is negative. The 5 year coverage is 314% and far too high. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 is 30% with 5 year coverage age 36%. The DPR has been decreasing and is now at a good level. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 cannot be calculated because the FCF is negative. The 5 year coverage is far too high at 377%.

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2019 is low at 0.25. The Liquidity Ratio for 2019 is low at 0.53, but if you add in cash flow after dividends it is fine at 1.70. The Debt Ratio is good at 2.47. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also good at 1.68 and 0.38 respectively.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 23 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	-12.94%	-15.65%	-20.13%	4.48%
2009	10	-7.44%	-1.47%	-8.51%	7.04%
2004	15	-7.06%	6.22%	-5.06%	11.28%
1999	20	-3.97%	21.27%	-0.39%	21.66%
1996	23	-4.23%	12.39%	-1.94%	14.34%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.62, 16.78 and 20.94. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 19.80, 23.40, 27.00. The corresponding historical ratios are 11.68, 13.51 and 15.47. The current P/E Ratio 25.71 based on a stock price of $7.20 and EPS estimate for 2020 of $0.28. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $7.83. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.32, 1.62, 1.87. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.92 based on a stock price of $7.20. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.01. The current P/B Ratio is 0.74 based on a stock price of $7.20, Book Value of $3,440M and Book Value per Share of $9.73. The current ratio is 63% below the 10 year median. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 9.25%. The current dividend yield is 8.33% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $7.20. The current yield is 9.9% below the historical yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 5.01%. The current dividend yield is 8.33% based on dividends of $0.60 and a stock price of $7.20. The current yield is 66% above the 10 year yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 5.03. The current P/S Ratio is 1.92 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $1,328M, Revenue per Share of $3.76 and a stock price of $7.20. The current ratio is 62% below the 10 year ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably cheap. This is showing in the P/S Ratio test, the P/B Ratio test, the 10 year median dividend yield test and the P/GP Ratio test. The 10 year median dividend yield test is probably much better than the historical median dividend yield test because this company used to be an income trust and income trust companies had very high yields compared to corporations. The P/E Ratios seemed to vary a lot.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I made money in the Canadian stock market because I kept away from resource stock. Resource stocks are volatile and I do not think they make good long term investments. This stock made a high in 2011 and the stock price is currently some 75% below that high. Last year the 12 month stock price consensus was $13.77. That implied a total return of 48.45% with 42.25% from capital gain and 6.20% from dividends based on a current stock price of $9.68. Instead the stock price 12 months later is at $7.20 and is 28% lower. The price is probably cheap.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (9), Buy (7) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $9.69. This implies a total return of 42.92% with 34.58% from capital gains and 8.33% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They think it is a well-run company, but would not buy at the present time. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says if you think energy might rebound, now maybe the time to buy this stock with its high yield. ARC Resources on Yahoo Finance talk about their forth quarterly results. A writer on Simply Wall Street says the company’s ROCE is too low and investors could probably find a more attractive investment elsewhere.

ARC Resources is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of conventional oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company produces light, medium, and heavy crude, condensate, NGLs, and natural gas. Its web site is here ARC Resources Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-MFC) ... learn more on Tuesday, February 18, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Richelieu Hardware Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. The price is reasonable to expensive. My problem is the current yield is below 1%. The company has great debt ratios and DPR. See my spreadsheet on Richelieu Hardware Ltd .

I own this stock of Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF). I initially bought this stock in 2007 because it was recommended by the Investment Reporter. It is not on any of the dividend lists, probably because they only started to pay dividends in 2000, they are a rather small company and they did not increase dividends in 2009. This stock would be considered to be a dividend paying growth stock. In 2009, I thought I would add to what I had in this stock. This stock has been much recommended by MPL Communications.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed it has preformed as expected. I have a total return of 17.77% per year with 16.13% from capital gains and 1.64% from dividends. Dividends have paid for 26% of the cost of my stock. After 11 years I am earning 4.36% on my original purchase. A negative is that dividend increases are getting lower for the for the past 3 years. The dividend increases from 2018 to 2020 inclusive are 5.82%, 5.50% and 5.37%. Although I must admit dividend increases have varied a lot in the past.

Dividend yield is low (under 2%). The current dividend yield is 0.90%, with 5, 10 and historical dividend yields at 0.88%, 1.12% and 1.12%. The current dividend growth is low (under8%), but it has been moderate in the past (8% to 14% ranges). I should mention that they have never done consistent dividend increases.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are very good. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 21% with 5 year coverage at 20%. The DPR for CFPS for 2019 was 17% with 5 year coverage also at 17%. The DPR for 2019 for Free Cash Flow for 2019 was 19% with 5 year coverage at 29%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 was 5.38 with 5 year coverage at 3.42.

Debt Ratios are all very good. They do not currently have any long term debt. The Liquidity Ratio is very good at 4.65 for 2019. The Debt Ratio is very good at 5.89 for 2019. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are also very good at 1.2 and 0.20 for 2019.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	6.29%	8.42%	7.38%	1.03%
2009	10	9.03%	15.15%	13.72%	1.43%
2004	15	10.94%	10.21%	9.12%	1.09%
1999	20	12.04%	15.90%	14.42%	1.47%
1994	25		16.98%	15.69%	1.29%
1993	26		16.14%	14.98%	1.16%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.44, 22.71 and 25.98. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.53, 19.17 and 21.80. The corresponding historical ratios are 15.09, 15.30 and 18.57. The current P/E Ratio is 22.87 based on a stock price of $29.50 and 2020 EPS estimate of $1.39. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $16.08. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.34, 1.56 and 1.80. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.83 based on a stock price of $29.50. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.97. The current P/B Ratio is 3.31 based on Book Value of $501M Book Value per Share of $8.91 and a stock price of 29.50. The current ratio is 12% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.12%. The current dividend yield is 0.90% based on dividends of $0.27 and a stock price of $29.50. The current yield is 19% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. The 10 year median dividend yield is also 1.12%, so testing would no different results.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.44. The current P/S Ratio is 1.48 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $1,118M, Revenue per share of $19.88 and a stock price of $29.50. The current ratio is 3% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is reasonable to expensive. Most of the testing is showing that the stock price is reasonable but above the median. This is true of the tests of P/S Ratio testing, P/B Ratio testing and dividend yield testing. There is however, nothing wrong in any of the testing done.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I own this company and think it is a good long term company to own. If you are building a portfolio, companies with low dividend yields are good ones to buy. However, the current dividend yield is below 1% and I do not buy companies where the current dividend yield is below 1%.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only Hold (2) recommendations. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $29.75. This implies a total return of 1.75% with 0.85% from capital gains and 0.90% from dividends.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. Some like it for a long term hold and some do not. Some think it is overpriced. Nelson Smith onMotley Fool says the company has a history of delivering excellent returns. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns shares in this company. A writer on Simply Wall Street say the CEO of this company gets a median pay for this size of company. Blogger on Dividend Earner reviews this stock.

Richelieu Hardware Ltd is a Canada-based company that imports, manufactures, and distributes specialty hardware and complementary products. Headquartered in Montreal, the company operates across Canada and the eastern and midwestern regions of the United States. The majority of the company's sales are derived from its operations in Canada. Its web site is here Richelieu Hardware Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be ARC Resources Ltd (TSX-ARX, OTC-AETUF) ... learn more on Friday, February 14, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Baby Boomers Investors.... learn more on Thursday, February 13, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Intact Financial Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Insurance. This is a good dividend growth company, but I think that it is a bit expensive currently. It has moderate dividend growth and moderate dividend yield with fine DPRs and fine Debt Ratios. This web site of Million Dollar Journey list this stock as one of the best for 2020. See my spreadsheet on Intact Financial Corp.

I do not own this stock of Intact Financial Corp (TSX-IFC, OTC-IFCZF). I am following this stock because in November 2011, the TD Bank put out a special report on the merits of dividend investing. At the end of the report they listed a number of Canadian stocks as Equity Yield ideas. This was one stock listed that I did not follow. This and Wajax are from TD Report on dividend investing. I have reviewed this stock before in July but it is hard to find stocks with December year ends with the year end results out at this time of the year.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed earnings are volatile as is to be expected from a General Insurance company. The 12 months stock price is close to the current price. This stock when up almost 42% last year and is up over 9% already this year. It is not wonder analysts expect little growth in the near future.

Dividend yield is in the moderate range (2% to 4% ranges). The current dividend is 2.17% with 5, 10 and historical dividend yields at 2.55%, 2.64% and 2.65% respectively. The dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges). Growth lately has been 9.63% per year over the past 5 years and the current dividend increase was close at 9.2%, but lower than the last 3 years growth at 9.86%, 9.73% and 9.63% for years of 2017 to 2019.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are fine. The DPR for EPS for 2019 is 60% with 5 year coverage at 52%. Analysts expect the DPR to be lower this year at 46%. The DPR for CPFS for 2019 is 38% with 5 year coverage at 35%. The DPR for Free Cash Flow for 2019 is 37% with 5 year coverage at 42%. The Dividend Coverage Ratio for 2019 is 2.73 with 5 year coverage at 2.38.

Debt Ratios are fine. The Claims/Covering Assets Ratio is good at 0.64. The Liquidity Ratio is not very important for insurance companies, but it is 1.53 for 2019. The Debt Ratio at 1.37 is fine for this sort of company. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 3.69 and 2.69 are also fine for this sort of company.

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 15 to the end of 2019. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	9.63%	13.34%	10.86%	2.47%
2009	10	9.04%	17.27%	14.22%	3.05%
2004	15	11.65%	13.68%	11.01%	2.67%

The 5 year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 19.23, 20.96 and 22.58. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 15.96, 17.31 and 18.66. The corresponding historical ratios are 14.41, 15.57 and 16.73. The current P/E Ratio is 21.24 based on a stock price of $153.16 and $7.21. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $93.57. The 10 year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.17, 1.29 and 1.39. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.64 based on a stock price of $153.16. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 2.02. The current P/B Ratio is 2.84 based on a stock price of $153.16, Book Value of $7,719M and Book Value per Share of $53.97. The current ratio is 40% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.65%. The current Dividend yield is 2.17% based on dividend of $3.32 and a stock price of $153.16. The current dividend is 18.2% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.64%. The current Dividend yield is 2.17% based on dividend of $3.32 and a stock price of $153.16. The current dividend is 17.7% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10 year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.54. The current P/S Ratio is 1.89 based on 2020 Revenue estimate of $11.600M, Revenue per Share of $81.11 and a stock price of $153.16. The current ratio is 22% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably expensive, but just inside expensive territory. For P/E Ratio testing, P/B ratio testing and Dividend Yield testing, expensive is the current ratio or yield is 20% or more above the median ratio. At 40% higher the P/B Ratio is in expensive territory, but for the dividend yield and P/S Ratios they are off at 18.2% 17.7% and 22%, so around the expensive territory cut off.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? First, I think that this is a good dividend growth stock with moderate dividend yield and moderate dividend growth. The total return over the past 5, 10 and 15 years is 13.34%, 17.27% and 13.68%. This is a general insurance company and so it tends to have some volatility in stock price and earnings, but has produced good long term results. At the moment, I think the stock price is on the expensive side, so it might be one to keep an eye on to buy at some future time when the stock price pulls back.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (4) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price is $154.92. This implies a total return 3.33% with 1.16% from capital gains and 2.17% from dividends based on a stock price of $153.16.

See what analysts are saying on Stock Chase. They like this company and say it is a consistent performer. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool likes this stock and says it is a steady performer, but analysts do not expect the stock price is rise much further this year. A writer on Simply Wall Street talks about who owns this stock. A writer on Simply Wall Street remarks about analysts stock price being close to current price because they do not expect a good year for this company in 2021. Steven Smith on Modern Reader talks about recent analysts remarks.

Intact Financial Corp is a property and casualty insurance company that provides written premiums in Canada. The company distributes insurance under the Intact Insurance brand through a network of brokers and a wholly owned subsidiary, BrokerLink, and directly to consumers through belairdirect. Its web site is here Intact Financial Corp .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Absolute Software Corporation (TSX-ABT, OTC-ALSWF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Richelieu Hardware Ltd (TSX-RCH, OTC-RHUHF) ... learn more on Wednesday, February 12, 2020 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Warren Buffet.... learn more on Tuesday, February 11, 2020 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.